Rate Cuts Delayed to June? Pullback Coming, Would You Hedge?
December core CPI eased to 2.6% YoY, a four-year low and broadly in line or slightly better than expectations. Yet the report failed to ignite a risk-on rally. Rate markets are now highly aligned: no cut in January, unlikely in March, with June priced as the earliest window. More notably, professional investors are already hedging against a more extreme scenario—no rate cuts even in 2026.
If soft CPI can’t lift markets, what data would actually shift rate-cut expectations?
With June as the first priced cut, is the market still underestimating “higher for longer” risk?
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