On 22 Jan 2026, $Intel(INTC)$ unveiled its Q4 and full-year 2025 results.
Once again, INTC’s financial rollercoaster took another dramatic turn.
Investors wondering whether INTC can finally complete its turnaround, here are the facts and all the news on its operational grit and financial fragility to help you draw your conclusions.
Q4 Earnings
INTC’s full-year 2025 revenue clocked in at $52.9 billion, its weakest performance since 2010.
However, the "improvement" in its bottom line was the primary talking point.
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Revenue : hit $13.7 billion, down -4.0% YoY from Q4 2024’s $14.3 billion (see above) - reflecting softer client demand despite data centre & AI (DCAI) growth of +9% YoY to $4.7 billion. (see above)
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Earnings per share (EPS GAAP) : Worsened to -$0.12 loss from Q4 2024’s -$0.03.
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Earnings per share (EPS Non-GAAP): Improved by +15% YoY to $0.15 from Q4 2025’s $0.13, beating consensus by $0.07 due to (a) cost cuts and (b) $4.4 billion in lower R&D/MG&A.
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Operating margin (GAAP): came in at 4.2%, up +1.3% YoY from Q4 2024’s 2.9%.
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Free cash flow (adjusted): was $2.22 billion vs Q4 2024’s -$1.5 billion.
Intel’s FCF remains under immense pressure due to its massive "IDM 2.0" fab build-out.
The company only managed to shrink its net loss thanks to a massive $20.4 billion infusion of outside capital, including:
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$8.9 billion from the U.S. CHIPS Act.
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$5 billion from Nvidia (a strategic investment to secure future capacity).
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$4.46 billion from Silver Lake for a stake in Altera.
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$2 billion from SoftBank.
Outlook for 2026:
Intel’s Q1 2026 guidance disappointed Wall Street.
It was the "canary in the coal mine" that spooked the street. (see below)
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Revenue: forecasted to be between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion (midpoint $12.2 billion), well below analyst consensus of $12.6 billion.
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Earnings per share (EPS Non GAAP) : estimated to breakeven [$0.00] vs $0.01 expected.
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Gross margin: forecasted to be weaker at 34.5%, down -4.7% YoY from Q1 2025’s 39.2%.
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CFO David Zinsner noted that supply for INTC’s hottest products (Xeon 6 & Lunar Lake) would be at its lowest point in Q1 before recovering in late 2026.
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No full-year 2026 guide was issued.
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However, emphasis on (a) INTC’s 18A ramp in US fabs and (b) AI PC launches like Core Ultra Series 3 signals long-term bets.
Post Earnings.
As of 04 Feb 2026 end day
US market's reaction to INTC’s earnings out on 22 Jan 2026 evening was swift and merciless.
23 Jan 2026 (the morning after):
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INTC plummeted -13% in a single session.
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Investors looked past the "smaller loss" and focused on the fact that without $20 billion in "charity" and government subsidies, INTC would still be bleeding billions.
26 Jan – 30 Jan 30:
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INTC languished in the mid-$20s range, as analysts debated the "wafer deficit."
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A narrative emerged: INTC has the demand (AI and PC refresh), but it simply cannot bake enough chips to meet it. (see below)
02 Feb 2026 :
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In a classic "put your money where your mouth is" move, CFO David Zinsner purchased $250,000 worth of INTC stock on the open market.
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This insider buying provided a temporary floor for the stock, signaling management's belief that Q1 2026 supply trough is the "last great dip".
03 Feb 3, 2026:
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INTC announced a strategic pivot into high-performance GPU space.
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This puts the veteran in direct competition with world’s #1 GPU maker - $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and its Blackwell architecture.
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INTC also announced the hire of a Chief Architect - Eric Demers (veteran GPU designer) from $Qualcomm(QCOM)$, in a bid to chase Nvidia and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ in data center inferencing.
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He joined INTC as Senior VP for GPU engineering focused on Data-center AI.
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The news helped the stock claw back +3% as it closed the period showing signs of a technical base.
Where is INTC heading ?
To answer the million-dollar question, a look at INTC’s technical analysis should shed some light.
Based on INTC’s rolling 12-month performance : (see below)
Moving Averages:
With INTC’s 04 Feb 2026 closing price ($48.60) trading above its Simple moving averages (SMA) of 20-day ($47.19), 50-day ($41.88) and 200-day ($30.26), it signals a bullish technical setup across timeframes.
Also, with the 50-day SMA crossed the 200-day SMA, INTC "golden cross" pattern should see continued rallies if trading volume remains high at approx. 150 million shares /day)
MACD
Its MACD is exhibiting the same consistent short-term volatility:
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The MACD (12, 26) is at 2.04, remaining in positive territory but currently sitting below the signal line (2.21).
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Both and both are above the zero line, a configuration that reflects a strong underlying uptrend established over the previous months.
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However, the price is currently experiencing a short-term cooling period or a "bullish consolidation" rather than a total trend reversal.
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The negative divergence (-0.17) indicates that upward momentum is slowing down.
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While long-term trend remains positive, latest TA reading suggests that the buying pressure has weakened recently, signaling (1) a potential period of sideways trading or (2) a minor pullback as the stock seeks to stabilize.
RSI
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INTC's 14-day RSI is at 56.41.
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Technically, INTC is considered neutral-bullish, not overbought.
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It still has room to run without exhaustion.
Summary.
Overall, INTC technical indicators scream "recovery intact" with stock price above all SMAs in golden cross stack, a MACD bullish and healthy RSI healthy.
All this reminds me of the “2023 - 2025” base breakout on AI/CHIPS tailwinds.
Golden Days Ahead ?
Intel is a tale of two companies.
One, a struggling manufacturer burdened by legacy costs.
The other, a "national champion" backed by $20 billion in subsidies and strategic partnerships with Nvidia.
Bull Case:
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The stock is historically cheap.
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If CFO Zinsner’s supply predictions are correct and if the new Chief Architect can deliver a credible GPU by 2027, current stock price will look like a generational bargain.
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It screams potential undervalued grit - no ?
Bear Case:
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INTC is effectively on "life support" from US government and its competitors.
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Its only vantage point - it is the only “made in America” chip maker.
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If it cannot achieve GAAP profitability without external injections by late 2026, recovery may be a "dead cat bounce".
INTC is currently a technical "coiled spring." It is oversold, misunderstood by Wall Street, yet seeing insider buying.
Its recovery will likely be a slow, "U-shaped" grind rather than a "V-shaped" rocket.
Personally, I am confident and cannot wait to see INTC re-gaining its former glory. Now can we announce the $Apple(AAPL)$ contract already, to push it along ? It’s about time, no ?
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Do you think there is light at the end of the tunnel for INTC in 2026 ’?
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Do you think INTC will be able to break the $50 resistant permanently soon ?
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