Weekly: February Maket Setback, Key Economic Data in Focus Amid Geopolitical Tensions

February's Recap

1. The US Market -Energy, Materials, and Consumer Staples Lead

• No clear direction: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ finished down 1.31% for the week, the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ declined 0.95%, and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ slipped 0.44%.

• February setback: January’s modestly positive momentum didn’t extend, as major 3 indexes finished in negative territory, with the former down 0.87% and the latter 3.38% lower. In contrast, the Dow eked out a 0.17% gain, extending its string of positive months to 10 in a row.

• Sector reversal: through February, energy, materials, and consumer staples were the top 3 sectors on a year-to-date basis. Meanwhile, last year’s leaders, communication services and information technology, were lagging.

• Mag 7 earnings: the 7 stocks generated average fourth-quarter earnings growth of 27.2% versus a 9.8% rate for the other 493 companies in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . Mag 7 earnings growth has now exceeded 25% in 10 of the past 11 quarters.

• Gold rebounds: after pausing in recent weeks, the year-to-date rally in gold prices resumed, Late Friday, gold futures increased 7.92% monthly and Silver prices rose 10.72%.

• Jobs ahead: a monthly labor market report due out on Friday will show whether January’s stronger-than-expected jobs growth extended into February

Read more>> https://ttm.financial/news/2616876602

2. The US Sectors & Stocks - Tech Sector Suffers Losses Driven by Mega-Caps

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : fell by 0.44% last week, closing at 6908.86. The broader market showed clear risk-aversion and sector rotation.

Sectors: Basic Materials (+4.23%) and defensive sectors like Consumer Defensive and Utilities led weekly gains. Conversely, the Technology sector (-1.65%) suffered heavy losses, heavily dragged down by major tech stocks like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , $IBM(IBM)$ , and $Apple(AAPL)$ , which faced declines due to investor concerns over AI spending sustainability and extreme individual stock movements.

• $Apple(AAPL)$ declined 0.15% as it announced plans to expand U.S. manufacturing. The company aims to boost domestic chip production and reduce foreign dependency through a $165 billion TSMC partnership.

• $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ fell 6.65% due to concerns over AI spending sustainability and broader market volatility, despite reporting record fourth-quarter sales of about $68 billion powered by AI chips.

• $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ increased 0.03% after announcing a multiyear partnership with Meta Platforms to supply AI chips worth over $100 billion. This strategic alliance positions AMD to challenge Nvidia in the AI chip market, boosting investor confidence.

• $Axon Enterprise, Inc.(AXON)$ soared 25% due to better-than-expected fourth-quarter profits, driven by robust, ongoing demand for its security devices and software products.

• $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ dropped 10.57% after announcing a strategic shift prioritizing user growth over monetization, leading to expectations of slower bookings growth and reduced profitability in 2026.

• $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ fell 2.26% due to broader difficulties in the electric vehicle market, reflecting ongoing investor concerns regarding the company's sales performance.

• $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ declined 1.14% despite signing a multibillion-dollar deal to rent Google's TPUs for new AI models. This strategic move aims to intensify its competition with Nvidia in the AI space.

• $IBM(IBM)$ dropped 6.59% due to investor concerns over how AI will impact its business model. However, its ongoing business continues with a major contract to upgrade electronic shelf label systems.

• $First Solar(FSLR)$ fell 18.47% due to missed recent earnings expectations and lowered revenue guidance for the 2026 fiscal year.

• $Netflix(NFLX)$ jumped 22.33% after dropping its bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery. Investors cheered this strategic shift, as the company will focus on investing $20 billion in its own content production instead.

3. Hong Kong Market - HSI sees a 0.82% rise amid mixed market signals

$HSI(HSI)$ : $HSI(HSI)$ slightly increased of 0.82% and closed at 26,630.54. The market showed mixed signals with technology stocks leading gains, while AI application stocks faced significant pressure due to market adjustments.

$HSTECH(HSTECH)$ experiecned a slight decline by 1.41%, driven by gains in major tech stocks like Tencent and Alibaba, despite a mid-week dip.

• $BIDU-SW(09888)$ saw a decline of 4.11% this week. Despite strong AI business growth and a new $50 billion stock repurchase plan, the stock faced pressure from broader market trends.

• $NIO-SW(09866)$ reported a 1.69% increase in stock price, buoyed by strong February delivery numbers and strategic partnerships, reflecting robust market performance.

• $TRIP.COM-S(09961)$ experienced a 1.06% decrease, despite strong financial results and strategic board changes, as market volatility impacted investor sentiment.

• $SMIC(00981)$ saw a significant drop of 15.47%, reflecting concerns over the semiconductor sector's cyclical nature and market sentiment.

• $HKEX(00388)$ rose by 2.75%, supported by strong financial results and strategic market reforms, reinforcing its position as a leading financial hub.

• $LI AUTO-W(02015)$ experienced a slight decrease of 1.93%, with strong delivery numbers overshadowed by broader market trends.

• $KB LAMINATES(01888)$ surged by 21.92%, driven by strong demand in the infrastructure sector and positive market sentiment.

• $XPENG-W(09868)$ saw a modest increase of 0.74%, supported by stable sales performance and strategic market expansion.

4. Singapore Market - STI Declines 0.45% Amid Mixed Corporate Earnings

$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ : $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ declined 0.45% and closed at 4995.07. The market was influenced by mixed corporate earnings reports and broader economic concerns.

• $YZJ Shipbldg SGD(BS6.SI)$ surged by 16.35%, it reported strong financial results with a revenue of RMB 28,504.8 million and a gross margin of 34.2%.

• $China Aviation(G92.SI)$ increased 8.02%, driven by a net income of USD 110.642 million and a proposed final ordinary dividend of 4.96 Singapore cents per share.

• $Seatrium Ltd(5E2.SI)$ rose by 11.11%, the announced impressive FY2025 financial results, including a 48.3% increase in H2 profit. The stock over the week.

• $OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$ reported a 1.34% drop in its fourth-quarter net profit, driven by higher non-interest income. However, the stock declined by 1.3% over the week.

• $UOB(U11.SI)$ fell by 4.22%, the bank reported a 7% year-on-year decline in net profit for the fourth quarter of 2025. The stock over the week.

• $SIA(C6L.SI)$ increased by 4.06%, as it announced a significant decline in its third-quarter net profit by nearly 69%.

• $Raffles Medical(BSL.SI)$ rose by 3.92%, the company reported solid financial performance with a revenue of SGD 765.3 million and net income of SGD 71.1 million.

5. Australian Market - ASX 200 gained 1.29% amid mixed corporate earnings

$S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ : The Australian stock market saw a positive rising with the $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ added by 1.3% and closed at 9198.6. The market was influenced by mixed corporate earnings reports and significant corporate actions, including layoffs and strategic shifts.

• $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ gained 9.53%, breaching the A$55 threshold for the first time in history. The copper division accounted for over 50% of EBITDA for the first time ever, benefiting from copper prices surging 10% YoY to $5.80/lb. Entered into a $4.3B silver streaming agreement with Wheaton Precious Metals, monetizing by-products from the Antamina mine ahead of schedule.

• $Rio Tinto Ltd(RIO.AU)$ added 2.47%, Copper production climbed +11% YoY to 883k tonnes, with the Oyu Tolgoi mine ramp-up contributing incremental volume. Copper earnings doubled, offsetting weakness in iron ore. Achieved first production at the Johnson Camp copper mine utilizing U.S. Nuton technology.

• $NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LTD(NAB.AU)$ , add 1.45% and hit an all-time high. The SME (small and medium enterprise) lending business constitutes its primary revenue source. The market is pricing in RBA rate cut expectations, with NAB economists forecasting three rate cuts in 2026 (July, August, November).

• $COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA(CBA.AU)$ dropped 2.81%, Analysts noted the bank faces a "laggard among the Big Four" dilemma. Macquarie particularly highlighted concerns over "higher for longer" interest rates pressuring loan growth and fee income, triggering a 3.6% weekly decline.

• $NEXTDC LTD(NXT.AU)$ saw a slight decline of 0.29% as it reported its H1 financial results, showing a revenue of AUD 231.77 million but a net income loss of AUD 39.4 million. Despite the net loss, the company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of AUD 9.9 million, indicating some operational profitability.

• $MACQUARIE TECHNOLOGY GROUP L(MAQ.AU)$ declined of 2.69% over the week even it announced strong financial results for the first half, with a net income of AUD 16.3 million and revenue of AUD 193.4 million.

• $Block Inc(XYZ.AU)$ surged by 27.23%, it announced significant layoffs, cutting approximately 4000 jobs to enhance operational efficiency through AI technology. The company also raised its 2026 gross profit guidance to USD 12.2 billion.

• $TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LTD(TLX.AU)$ saw a 4.12% decrease, after received a Buy rating from Citigroup, with the price target raised from $22.00 to $22.50 per share.

The Week Ahead

1. Macro Factors -Market Braces for Key Economic Data Amid Geopolitical Tensions

This week, markets are on edge due to escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, alongside crucial economic data releases. Investors are particularly focused on the U.S. jobs report due Friday, which could influence Federal Reserve rate decisions.

Key macroeconomic factors include the U.S. nonfarm payrolls, ADP private payrolls, and ISM surveys for manufacturing and services.

Monday：

• Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index

Wednesday:

• ADP National Employment Report, by ADP

• Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index

• Factory orders, by U.S. Census Bureau

Thursday:

• Productivity and labor costs, Import and export prices, by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Weekly unemployment claims, by U.S. Department of Labor

Friday:

• Jobs and unemployment, by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Retail sales, Business inventories, by U.S. Census Bureau

• Consumer credit, by U.S. Federal Reserve

In Europe, attention will be on eurozone inflation data and the U.K.'s spring statement.

Asia will focus on the Bank of Japan's policy outlook, Australia's growth figures, and China's annual parliamentary sessions.

2. Earnings Spotlight: AVGO, JD, BILI, BEST, CRWD, OKTA

• AI Industry Chain Validation: $Broadcom(AVGO)$ 's earnings report on Wednesday is key to observing the demand for AI infrastructure, particularly whether the revenue growth of its custom AI chips (XPUs) can offset the fluctuations in demand for general-purpose GPUs.

• Chinese Stocks Recovery Test: $JD.com(JD)$ and $Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$'s earnings reports on Thursday will test the effectiveness of China's consumption recovery and "cost reduction and efficiency improvement" strategies. Attention should be paid to the progress of loss reduction in non-core businesses such as food delivery and advertising.

• Retail Stocks' Tariff Sensitivity: $Best Buy(BBY)$'s stock price has already plummeted due to 55% of its products being from China. This week, $Target Energy(TEX.AU)$, $Burlington(BURL)$, and others need to pay attention to the impact of tariffs on their 2026 gross margin guidance.

• Software SaaS Prosperity: $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ , $Okta Inc.(OKTA)$ , $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$, and others will validate the resilience of corporate IT spending, especially the progress of AI feature commercialization.

Indetail:

• $Norwegian Cruise Line(NCLH)$ : Q4 is the seasonal low for the cruise industry; monitor 2026 booking trends and ticket pricing trajectory

• $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ : Q4 2025 revenue expected to surge ~48% YoY to RMB 109B, with EV segment losses narrowing to RMB 700M

• $Sea Ltd(SE)$ : Shopee e-commerce GMV growth and digital entertainment business turnaround; watch Monee credit business NPL ratios

• $Ross(ROST)$ : Off-price retail leader; SSS expected +3-4%; focus on resilience of low-income consumer spending

• $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ : Cybersecurity leader; monitor AI security product penetration and customer upsell/cross-sell rates

• $GitLab, Inc.(GTLB)$ : AI-assisted coding and DevOps platform growth momentum

• $Box(BOX)$ : Enterprise cloud storage demand trends

• $Okta Inc.(OKTA)$ : Identity security cloud provider; achieved GAAP profitability; watch if Q1 guidance sustains 10% growth

• $JD.com(JD)$ : Progress on food delivery loss reduction; government subsidy policy impact on 3C electronics; focus on Q1 guidance

• $Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$ : Gaming revenue under pressure (Q3 -17% YoY); sustainability of +23% ad revenue growth; gross margin target 40-45%

• $Burlington(BURL)$ : Off-price department store; monitor SSS trends and tariff impact on COGS

• $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ : Datacenter chip demand; AI custom silicon (ASIC) progress; though recent EPS estimates cut by 5%

• $Costco(COST)$ : Membership retail leader; focus on renewal rates and potential membership fee increases; shares +17% YTD hitting record highs

• $Gap, Inc(GAP)$ : Brand restructuring progress; Old Navy and Athleta performance; gross margin compression concerns

• $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ : IoT unicorn; first-time GAAP profitability; ARR reached $1.75B (+29%); focus on large enterprise customer acquisition