Is it me, or does seem like everyone is overreacting and expressing sentiments of both extremes, some having enough enthusiasm that the market should be recovering, with others believing that it was a crash.

Firstly, calling it a crash seems disingenuous at best and malicious at worst. Crash seems to imply something went seriously wrong out of nowhere, but almost everyone took a hit because of the Iran crisis. Anything outside of oil, defence related companies and safe assets like gold, was expected to take a hit. If anything, the rally now might be a false dawn with everyone wanting to delude themselves into believing that everything is fine.

Secondly, with the president of the united states, everyone would do well to temper their expectations. He is too chaotic and whimsical to for everyone to be optimistic about. The market would do well to proceed cautiously and prepare for the worst case scenario, in this context: a long and drawn out war. Speculation has seeped out that the action will be escalated into having boots on the ground, and that will mean even greater pain for the market, though it might just end the fighting sooner.

Reactions have been wild, either being overly pessimistic and saying markets crashed. If the war continues, and further slides occur, then what would that be? And having the exuberance for a market recovery when the situation is so fragile, that would allow for a crushing defeat if the war worsens. Best to temper expectations, keep a steady outlook with the long term in mind.

Sidenote: I think there is a true shift in the approach to military warfare, with USA adopting one way attack drones in their arsenal, it is no longer an Iran/russia thing. The world should be fully aware that this is the way forward and companies with the agility and relevant expertise should pivot into the production of drones. Europe companies would do well to learn from Ukraine both for making and countering drones, to both compensate and aid Ukraine for their input and to capitalise on this burgeoning industry.

It might just be worth looking at defence stocks for the long term.