Price Volatility & Reversal: C

Price Volatility & Reversal: Crude prices retreated from a peak of $119.50 to $88.17 (WTI) and $89.79 (Brent) following de-escalation signals and the potential release of reserves.

Unprecedented Strategic Release: The G7 and IEA are coordinating a massive deployment of 1.8 billion barrels in global reserves to offset the 16 million bpd supply gap triggered by the blockade.

Chokepoint Constraints: While reserves offer short-term relief, the restoration of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil, remains the critical factor for long-term market stability.

Oil Pullback While Banks See $120: Is the War Risk Still On The Table?

Iran is implementing a “targeted strategy”: instead of indiscriminately blocking all shipping lanes, it is allowing only vessels from specific countries to pass. Analysts warn that the global oil market is severely underestimating the disruptive impact of this strategy. Due to the extreme lack of transparency in passage criteria, war risk premiums have not declined—instead, they continue to surge because of unpredictable risks. Although oil prices have recently pulled back, Has the risk ended? Will Brent crude break above Citi’s projected $120 ceiling and surge toward $140?

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