This will only be a temporary bandaid, simply because the Iranian leaders have enjoyed so much of what they took from the people and the resources of the land and will not easily give up the riches that they fought so hard to hold on to.
So the war either has to go on until usa/israel gives up, or the iranian leaders believe they can no longer hold on and flee with whatever gold and cash they can grab. Only until then will the pressure on oil fade, and I believe that will be at least a week, if not a couple of months.
Just one week is enough for so much more pain, especially when markets keep trying to find hope by grasping at any perceived positive news to make gains, only to continue its descend the next day when the war rages on.
Oil Pullback While Banks See $120: Is the War Risk Still On The Table?
Iran is implementing a “targeted strategy”: instead of indiscriminately blocking all shipping lanes, it is allowing only vessels from specific countries to pass.
Analysts warn that the global oil market is severely underestimating the disruptive impact of this strategy. Due to the extreme lack of transparency in passage criteria, war risk premiums have not declined—instead, they continue to surge because of unpredictable risks.
Although oil prices have recently pulled back, Has the risk ended? Will Brent crude break above Citi’s projected $120 ceiling and surge toward $140?
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