Oil Back Above $100: What Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Are Saying

👋 Hi Tigers,

One of the hottest topics in global markets right now is simple: Oil prices have surged back above $100 per barrel.

This has raised two concerns among investors:

1️⃣ Could oil prices climb toward $120?

2️⃣ Will this affect the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut timeline?

Today, let’s take a look at the latest views from major Wall Street institutions.

1. 🏦 Wall Street Institutional Views

1️⃣ Goldman Sachs

Institution: Goldman Sachs

Oil price forecast: Brent crude: $100 — $105 per barrel

Logic:

If shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz last more than 30 days, oil prices could potentially reach $120.

Trading strategy:

• Overweight energy stocks

• Underweight technology stocks

2️⃣ Morgan Stanley

Institution: Morgan Stanley

Key view:

The market is underestimating geopolitical risks. Currently, markets are pricing in only short-term conflicts. But if supply disruptions persist:

Oil price volatility could increase significantly.

Trading strategy:

• Buy gold

• Increase exposure to energy stocks

• Hedge with S&P 500 put options

3️⃣ JPMorgan

Institution: JPMorgan Chase

Macroeconomic impact: Rising oil prices could push inflation higher. A common estimate suggests: Every 10% increase in oil prices could raise CPI by about 0.3 percentage points.

What does this mean?

The Federal Reserve may have less room to cut interest rates.

2. 📊 What Does the Prediction Market Say?

Recently, many traders have also been watching the prediction platform Polymarket.

Current probabilities in the market:

• Shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lasting until the end of March ≈ 65% probability

• Oil prices exceeding $110 ≈ 42% probability

• Probability of a March rate cut ≈ 12%

In short:

The market believes a near-term rate cut is very unlikely.

3. 📈 Signals from the Options Market

Let’s look at three indicators.

📌 $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

The volatility index has risen to 22, but remains around historical mid-range levels.

📌 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ put-call ratio

Has increased to 1.4, indicating rising hedging demand.

📌 $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

Implied volatility in options has surged to 45%.

The reason is simple:

The NVIDIA GTC conference is approaching, and markets expect larger price swings.

4. 🎓 Investor Education

What is a prediction market?

Platforms like Polymarket are quite interesting.

Users place real money bets on whether certain events will occur.

For example:

• Will oil prices exceed $110?

• Will the Fed cut interest rates?

The advantage is that these markets aggregate the expectations of many participants.

However, they can also be influenced by market sentiment.

💬 Discussion Time

Let’s do a quick poll, Tigers:

If oil prices continue rising, what would you do?

A. Buy energy stocks

B. Buy gold

C. Reduce tech exposure

D. Do nothing

Another question: Do you think oil prices could reach $120 this year?

Share your thoughts in the comments 👇

🎁 3 participants will be randomly selected to receive 88 Tiger Coins.

⚠️ Disclaimer

Institutional opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.

Markets change rapidly. Please rely on the latest information when making decisions.

For SG users only, welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.

🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility Now

• Find out more here.

• Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD1000* to get SGD 688 stock vouchers*! The trade can be executed using any payment type available under the Cash Boost Account: Cash, CPF, SRS, or CDP.

• Click to access the activity

• other helpful links:

  • 💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉

  • How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.