1D1GnZ
03-19

*The Brutal Reality of the European vulnerability.*

The EU gathered in an extraordinary round of meetings this week to address what is essentially every policymaker's nightmare: Iran tightening control over the Strait of Hormuz. This is the narrow choke point through which a massive chunk of the international oil supply flows.

The Strait of Hormuz isn't just a regional issue. It carries roughly a fifth of global oil supply, which makes it less of a "just another Middle Eastern conflict" and more of a global pressure valve. 

When that artery gets squeezed, Europe doesn't just get nervous, it starts checking the thermostat and the inflation charts at the same time.

After that meeting (and as it was expected) the EU (once again) finds itself in its classic position: economically vulnerable, politically - excessively cautious, and strategically divided. It wants stability without confrontation, influence without escalation, and solutions without owning the problem.

The extraordinary meeting (once again) highlighted something painfully consistent:

Europe is very good at identifying risks, reasonably good at managing consequences, and deeply uncomfortable making the kind of hard decisions that would actually resolve the issue.

So for now, the strategy looks like this: delay, negotiate, hedge, and hope the situation doesn't get worse faster than policy can react.

Not too inspiring, but very politically correct, and on brand. 

Oil Pullback While Banks See $120: Is the War Risk Still On The Table?
Iran is implementing a “targeted strategy”: instead of indiscriminately blocking all shipping lanes, it is allowing only vessels from specific countries to pass. Analysts warn that the global oil market is severely underestimating the disruptive impact of this strategy. Due to the extreme lack of transparency in passage criteria, war risk premiums have not declined—instead, they continue to surge because of unpredictable risks. Although oil prices have recently pulled back, Has the risk ended? Will Brent crude break above Citi’s projected $120 ceiling and surge toward $140?
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