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🌍 Monday — Macro Economy
U.S. equity indexes finished lower in a volatile week shaped by geopolitical tensions and resulting volatility in oil prices, persistent inflation concerns, and a somewhat hawkish interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared worst, declining 2.11%, followed by the Nasdaq Composite, which shed 2.07%. The S&P MidCap 400 Index held up best but still fell 1.34%.
Within the S&P 500 Index, energy was the best-performing sector by a wide margin as oil prices moved higher amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding Middle East supply risks. U.S. Treasury yields also mostly moved higher amid the heightened uncertainty, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rising to around 4.38% as of Friday afternoon.
The Federal Reserve concluded its March monetary policy meeting on Wednesday and announced that it would leave the target range for its federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, the second consecutive meeting with no change. Policymakers voted 11–1 on the decision, with one Fed official voting instead for a rate cut. Updated forecasts from central bank officials showed a median estimate of one more rate cut for the year, unchanged from their prior projection, while forecasts for both inflation and economic growth during the year were revised higher.
The week ahead: March 23-27
📌【Today’s Question】
With markets swinging wildly,What are your trading strategies for this week?
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Comments
The bigger concern is second-order impact. Even if the company isn’t directly charged, senior-level involvement raises governance questions. In a supply chain tied to Nvidia, compliance is critical. Any disruption could hit demand, while rivals like Dell Technologies may benefit.
For me, this looks like the start of a repricing, not a one-off move. The narrative has shifted to uncertainty, which typically compresses valuations. I’d treat any bounce as an opportunity rather than a reversal. Risk-reward still skews to the downside here.
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Regarding equities, particularly high-multiple tech and the Sensex—which saw a staggering 1,600-point drop—my stance is one of strict avoidance. When the S&P 500 breaks its 200-day moving average, the technical damage suggests that a "V-shaped" recovery is unlikely in the short term. My strategy involves holding a 30% cash reserve. In a market swinging this wildly, cash isn't "trash"; it is a call option on lower prices. By staying liquid, I avoid being forced to sell winners to cover losers. This week is about survival and preparation, ensuring that when the terminal "capitulation" phase hits, I have the dry powder to acquire Tier-1 assets at deep discounts.