💬 Quick Discussion: Is Apple’s pullback a golden chance to buy? Or do you see more downside ahead? Share your take!
So far this year, $Apple(AAPL)$ has fallen nearly 9%, amid broad weakness across the tech sector. Going back to the launch of the first iPhone in early 2007, Apple has posted annual declines only four times: in 2008, 2015, 2018, and 2022.
Yet historical data shows a clear pattern: every time Apple finished lower for the year, it staged a strong rebound the next year.
Here’s how Apple performed after its four annual down years:
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2008: –56.9% → 2009: +146.9%
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2015: –4.6% → 2016: +10%
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2018: –6.8% → 2019: +86.1%
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2022: –26.8% → 2023: +48.2%
This pattern suggests that Apple’s single-year declines are mostly driven by market sentiment or macro volatility, not fundamental breakdowns in the business.
Fundamentals Remain Strong — Earnings Support the Rebuild Story
Unlike 2022, when weak revenue growth weighed on the stock, Apple’s fundamentals today are clearly improving.
For Q1 fiscal 2026 (ending December 27, 2025):
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Revenue: $143.8 billion (+16% YoY)
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Diluted EPS: $2.84 (+19% YoY)
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Operating cash flow: $54 billion
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Cash & cash equivalents: **$45.3 billion** (vs. $30.3 billion a year earlier)
iPhone remains the core growth driver:
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Q1 iPhone revenue: $85.27 billion (+23.3% YoY)
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Services revenue: $30.01 billion (+13.9% YoY)
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iPad revenue: +6.3% YoY
Management guided for 13%–16% YoY revenue growth in Q2. Apple recently launched the iPhone 17e and refreshed MacBook lines, and the iPhone 18 is expected to arrive in September. The steady flow of new products should support momentum through the second half of the year.
Market View: Short-Term Noise Won’t Change Long-Term Value
Wall Street analysts widely view the recent pullback as short-term caution on tech valuations, not a rejection of Apple’s business quality.
“If you take a long-term view of Apple, this decline is exactly when you want to step in with a margin of safety,” said long-time Apple analyst Gene Munster.
CEO Tim Cook noted on the earnings call that Apple now has over 2.5 billion active devices, with growing ecosystem stickiness and monetization power.
Between history, financial strength, and a solid product roadmap, Apple’s fundamentals today are stronger than during prior selloffs. For long-term investors, the “golden dip” logic still holds:
When sentiment beats down a premium asset, big upside often follows.
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