💬 Lithium investors: Will Zijin’s Manono mine tilt the global supply balance? Is this a game-changer for lithium prices?
At a critical juncture in the global energy transition, a giant lithium mine deep in Africa is entering its final countdown to production.
On March 20, Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. announced that its Manono Lithium Project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is scheduled to be completed and commissioned by June 30, 2026.
This fixed timeline means the global lithium supply map is about to welcome a pivotal new player.
Joining the World’s Top Tier
According to data released by Zijin Mining, the Manono Project is designed to process 5 million tonnes of ore annually, producing 500,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate per year, with a final capacity of 130,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) per year.
This scale will immediately place the mine among the world’s top-tier hard‑rock lithium operations.
Martin Jackson, Head of Battery Materials at CRU Group, noted that this capacity “will push Manono to the forefront of global hard‑rock lithium assets,” with only a handful of giant Australian mines capable of higher output.
Chris Williams, an analyst at Adamas Intelligence, further estimates that upon full ramp‑up, annual lithium concentrate production could reach 850,000–875,000 tonnes.
In terms of the global supply landscape, the weight of this capacity is clear.
CRU data shows that at full production by 2028, the Manono Project will account for approximately 5% of global lithium mine production — a dominant share for a single mine.
For Zijin Mining, the Manono Project marks the latest step in its aggressive expansion strategy.
Starting with copper and gold, the company has quickly risen into the ranks of the world’s top miners through a series of targeted acquisitions.
In the DRC, in addition to Manono, Zijin holds a 39.6% stake in the Kamoa‑Kakula copper mine and operates another copper complex.
The Manono Project represents a total investment of about $1.4 billion.
Zijin Mining holds a 54.9% equity stake in the project company via its overseas subsidiary, with the remaining shares held by DRC’s state-owned mining company COMINIERE.
The project moved quickly: partnership launched in October 2023, mining license obtained in September 2024, and production now imminent.
The Rise of African Lithium
The launch of Manono also marks a strengthening of Africa’s position in the global lithium supply chain.
In recent years, led by Zimbabwe, Africa has become a key lithium source for China’s battery supply chain.
Zijin’s move in the DRC, together with Ganfeng Lithium’s Goulamina Project in Mali, forms a dual‑core African lithium hub.
However, competition among projects is intensifying.
Adamas Intelligence’s Williams believes that if Goulamina completes its expansion, it could eventually surpass Manono in scale — meaning Africa’s lithium “top tier” remains dynamic.
Notably, Zimbabwe recently introduced a ban on lithium concentrate exports, raising policy risks for regional lithium supply.
Against this backdrop, CRU’s Jackson says the upcoming start of Manono is “perfectly timed for a period of acute market tightness,” giving it an outsized marginal impact on the global balance.
Lingering Ownership Disputes
Yet behind this soon‑to‑launch giant mine lies a years‑long ownership dispute.
Australia’s AVZ Minerals Ltd. once held exploration rights, but the DRC government revoked its license in 2022 and awarded the northeastern area to Zijin Mining.
AVZ has launched international arbitration to reclaim the rights, and the dispute remains unresolved.
Geopolitical factors have also emerged: Trump administration officials reportedly urged AVZ to sell its stake to a U.S. firm, while KoBold Metals, backed by Bill Gates and others, has targeted the southern area.
Conclusion: Reshaping — But Not Decisively
Returning to the question at the start:
Will Zijin Mining’s Manono Project, when it starts production in June, reshape the global lithium supply landscape?
Objectively, a mine with 130,000 tonnes LCE annual capacity will materially impact global lithium fundamentals — especially with lithium prices near cycle lows and higher‑cost capacity exiting the market.
Manono’s low‑cost, open‑pit design gives it the strength to start production even in a down cycle.
But whether it truly “reshapes the landscape” depends on multiple variables:
how the ownership dispute is resolved, whether DRC policy remains stable, and whether future expansions proceed on schedule.
Meanwhile, the capacity race continues among Australian, South American brine, and other African projects.
One thing is certain:
When Manono produces its first batch of lithium this June, the global lithium supply chain will reach a new, unavoidable milestone.
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