Hormuz Strait Closed Means Your Power Bill Jumps 20% Soon | 🦖EP1558

The Investing Iguana
04-20 13:18

Hormuz Strait Closed Means Your Power Bill Jumps 20% Soon | 🦖EP1558

The Hormuz re-closure is not a distant geopolitical headline — it is a direct assault on the fuel hedge mathematics that your SIA dividend depends on. SIA's hedge cover drops from 41% to 24% by late 2026, precisely when Brent risk premiums are projected to peak, and that 37% downward revision in FY2027 core net profit means the distribution arithmetic is already broken before the July utility shock lands.

For a mature SRS portfolio in a 5,000-point STI era, the question is never yield in isolation — it is yield minus the risk you are silently underwriting. With the 6-month T-Bill at 1.47% and my Forensic Floor anchored at 3.2%, any fuel-exposed transport equity needs to clear a credible 4.7% hurdle with gearing below 35% to justify the displacement of capital from absolute safety. Right now, the spread is narrowing faster than the consensus admits.

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US-Iran Conflict | Hormuz Blocked Again, Can Trump Meeting Help Sustain Market Momentum?
Trump said he is willing to meet senior Iranian leaders if talks make a “breakthrough,” while a U.S. delegation including JD Vance was reported to be heading to Islamabad on April 20. At the same time, Reuters reported shipping through Hormuz was near a standstill, with only three vessel crossings in 12 hours, and broader markets opened under pressure as oil jumped. So which signal matters more now — diplomacy restarting, or the fact that the world’s key oil chokepoint is still barely moving? Is this 4% oil spike just headline panic, or the start of a deeper risk-off move for equities?
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