China inflation turns a corner: China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% year-on-year (YoY) in April, beating the 0.9% consensus, lifted by energy prices and holiday travel spending. The producer price index (PPI) surged 2.8% YoY — the fastest since July 2022 and well above the 1.5% forecast — driven by Middle East supply disruptions and Beijing's capacity-reduction drive.
US inflation highest since May 2023: US annual inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April (March: 3.3%), with energy costs jumping 17.9% YoY and accounting for over 40% of the monthly increase. Core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month (MoM) and 2.8% YoY, keeping prices well above the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2% target.
US Treasury yields extend climb: Surging oil prices, persistent inflation and a run of soft Treasury auctions pushed the 30-year yield to 5.13% — its highest closing level since June 2007 — while the 10-year yield rose to 4.60%. Markets now price a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike this year, underpinning a 1.5% weekly dollar gain — its strongest in two months.
Trump-Xi summit: trade and Taiwan: The leaders pledged to enhance economic cooperation at the Beijing summit, but China agreed to purchase Boeing jets well below pre-trip expectations. There were also few concrete outcomes beyond a broad commitment to stabilise relations, while Xi warned that mishandling Taiwan could lead to conflict. The yuan briefly touched a three-year high before retreating to around 6.81 per dollar.
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