$Intel(INTC)$ (7.7% ADR) via $GraniteShares 2X Long INTC Daily ETF(INTW)$ (15.6% ADR) at $200 Mil Avg Dollar Vol
This is actually one of the five focus ideas I shared with my group today, but I think it’s helpful to show how ADR%, the 3-stop framework, T+3 partial sale, and tight LoD entries all integrate within my process. It also highlights why I generally prefer liquid leveraged proxies over the underlying when they’re available because it gives you more room to maneuver your capital for opportunities. eg. use $2 to make $4, instead of $4 to make $4.
1. There is INTW at 15% ADR on $200mil avg dollar vol. If entry at $109.10 and stop at $104.15 on INTC require 5.5% equity on 0.25% risk, $INTW will halve it, only requiring 2.75%. You only utilize 2.75% capital to locked in, with a potential max loss of 0.25% on capital. This is before 3-stop strategy which reduces a full losing idea to only 0.17% loss.
2. If the weekly flag is not ready, the resistance level based on recent high is $124. A trade design based on above will give u 2.5R to resistance level. Based on the current ADR%, it can achieve within a 2-3 days move (14% away). I have a T+3 partial sale strategy, I can pull money out before anyone is in the trade waiting for the flag, breakeven majority of the rest and mental stop on remaining small size, before it fades. My remaining small size on mental stop is to ride the potential weekly flag breakout and will stop if it pulls below $100. All my risk here is below 1R.
3. $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ did a new all time high breakout and close at day high after 4 days sideway. We do not know how high will it go, but we can be certain this is bullish for the group. INTC is only 3.6 x ATR% from 50-MA. It remains RS 99 (1-year rolling) to both SOXX and $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ even on that 2 weeks laggard price action. Again, it's building a weekly flag after extending to 17x ATR% from 50-MA on May 11.
I think this is a very low risk play for good returns. not great, but most other mega cap semis are too extended to take an entry. This is the only most optimal entry for semi left to play for a cheat.
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