$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Bears keep arguing that AI capex won't generate real ROI, but the math doesn't really support that view.

Meta is expected to add around 4 GW of compute capacity by the end of 2027. Even if part of that is excess, the monetization angle is getting harder to ignore.

Recent market comps show Anthropic effectively paying SpaceX about $45B for roughly 300 MW through 2029, which translates into roughly $15B annualized. Scale that dynamic up, and suddenly AI compute isn't just a cost—it's a revenue engine.

Meta's estimated cost per 1 GW sits near $9B annually, assuming standard depreciation cycles. Even at a fraction of external pricing power, excess capacity alone could imply meaningful upside versus cost.

At around 18x earnings, the market is still pricing META like a traditional platform, not an AI infrastructure layer. That gap is where the opportunity sits.