Gagan Rajpal
06-07

*SpaceX IPO Countdown Hammers Space Stocks — Long or Short?* 🚀

SpaceX keeps teasing an IPO “someday” but every rumor sends space stocks swinging. Right now the “countdown” chatter is hitting tickers like $RKLB, $ASTR, $SPCE, $REDW hard. Why? Retail FOMO + rotation.

*The bull case - Long:*

If SpaceX files for IPO, it validates the whole commercial space thesis. Starship progress, Starlink cash flow, and government contracts make SpaceX the “Apple of space”. That hype lifts the entire sector. Funds that can’t buy private SpaceX will rotate into the closest public proxies like Rocket Lab $RKLB. An IPO also brings liquidity + media attention = more eyeballs on space. For long-term believers, dips on rumors are entry points.

*The bear case - Short:*

Most space SPACs are still burning cash with no profit. SpaceX IPO news actually steals the spotlight. Why buy a loss-making small launch company when you can finally own the real deal? That’s why you see space ETFs drop on SpaceX headlines. Plus “IPO soon” rumors have been around since 2019. If it’s another false alarm, stocks that pumped will get sold fast.

I’m not trading this on rumors alone. Space is high-risk, high-reward. If you’re long, size small and expect volatility. If you’re shorting, respect how fast hype moves.

SpaceX Surges 6.1% Through $116B Lockup Expiry — Is the Overhang Truly Gone?
SpaceX +6.14% Thursday, straight through the largest lockup expiry on record — 911.5 million insider shares, roughly $116 billion, turning sellable. It dipped at the open, then reversed. Attention swung back to the first earnings report: core profit beat, segment losses narrowed sharply, only AI capex ran slightly hot. Cathie Wood bought the dip, JPMorgan revised its target, Musk called Starlink undervalued. Peer SSPC still fell 12.16%. Biggest overhang cleared, sector not following — inflection, or just the end of the selling?
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