sms90
06-13

$Oracle(ORCL)$  RPO backlog is a promise, not revenue yet — but it's the right kind of promise. Hyperscalers don't sign multi-year OCI contracts unless the infrastructure is real.

The selloff is the market demanding proof. Fair enough. But if OCI growth accelerates this print and Ellison confirms capex is on track, this is just noise shaking out weak hands before the next leg up.

I'm holding my position. The thesis hasn't broken — the stock just got caught in the broader AI hardware selloff.

One number to watch: OCI revenue growth rate vs last quarter. That's the whole story Wednesday night.

AI Race Pivots to Safety — Can Security Software Replace Compute?
Broadcom closed up 0.32% to $361.99 Friday, behind the group, with Nvidia −0.03%. The weekend's slow-down-frontier-AI push opened a second storyline: competition moving from model capability toward safety and compliance. Budgets decide whether money moves — monitoring, identity, cloud security, automated defense would extend the AI trade from GPUs into security software. It hasn't moved yet: the security group rose 0.44% Friday and CrowdStrike fell 1.02%. Security budgets are close to non-discretionary, but the pool is far smaller than compute capex. Do you own security, or is it all compute?
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