christopho
06-13

My view: the bottom is likely in for quality AI semiconductor names, but I'm less certain for SOXL.


The recent rebound wasn't just short covering. We're seeing continued evidence that hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google and Oracle) are still increasing AI infrastructure spending. Oracle's massive RPO growth is another signal that AI demand remains strong.


That said, SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF. Even if my long-term thesis is bullish, timing matters. A 10% pullback in semis can become a 30% drawdown in SOXL very quickly.


Personally, I'd rather own NVDA, Broadcom, TSMC or SMH than hold SOXL for the long term.


Bull case:

✅ AI capex keeps accelerating

✅ Fed remains supportive

✅ Data center demand continues to surprise


Bear case:

❌ Higher-for-longer rates

❌ AI spending disappoints

❌ Valuation compression


I'm bullish semiconductors over the next 3-5 years, but I treat SOXL as a trading vehicle rather than an investment.


What do you think is the better buy today: NVDA, AMD, SMH or SOXL?

Nvidia's $25B Bond Draws 3x Oversubscription: Bullish Signal or Capex Warning?
Nvidia rose 3.54% as it priced a $25 billion investment-grade bond offering that drew $85 billion in orders — more than 3x oversubscribed — with deal size upsized from an initial ~$20 billion. The longest-dated tranche tightened 25 basis points from initial guidance, with the final spread just 65 basis points over Treasuries, reflecting near-frictionless borrowing costs. Nvidia is leveraging its blue-chip credit to fund the AI arms race at minimal cost. With bond markets lining up to lend, is this further proof of its moat — or a sign of an ever-expanding capex burden?
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