Today I read a lot of comments in Tiger Brokers. Cannot tahan already, must say out.
Many of these so-called analysts and experts are like customers who eat one prata and suddenly become MasterChef judges. Read two social media posts, watch one YouTube video, then become Oracle expert.
When Oracle drops 10%, wah... immediately all the ghost stories come out.
"Debt problem!"
"AI bubble!"
"Data center oversupply!"
"End of Oracle!"
Aiyo, last month same people were calling Larry Ellison a genius.
Oracle went from around $135 to much higher levels. Up more than 35%, everybody quiet. One 10% drop and suddenly the company is bankrupt.
Good earnings don't always mean stock price go up. Bad earnings don't always mean stock price go down. If earnings day was so easy, every prata seller would already own a bungalow at Sentosa Cove.
Some people hear one AI story and immediately all-in. Some use leverage until sleeping also check stock price. Then when stock drops, they cry louder than customer finding no curry for prata.
Now let's talk about the actual earnings.
Revenue beat.
EPS beat.
OCI cloud growth almost 92%.
Ninety-two percent!
My prata sales never grow 92% before.
If my shop grows 92%, I won't be flipping prata anymore. I'll be hiring analysts to explain why my business is doomed.
The market says SaaS growth slightly missed expectations.
Okay, fair point.
But Oracle only started the new AI billing model on May 7, and the quarter ended on May 31. That's like opening a new prata stall for three weeks and people asking why you haven't become McDonald's yet.
What impressed me most was the backlog.
RPO increased to $638 billion.
That's not small change.
That's a mountain of future business.
Market says, "Never mind, future money not important."
Then tomorrow they will buy some company with no profits because somebody posted a rocket emoji.
The biggest fear is capex and debt.
But management says GPU utilization is 97.5%.
That means the machines are working harder than Muthu Boy during Sunday breakfast rush.
If utilization is high and returns are close to 30%, then the question isn't whether Oracle is spending money.
The question is whether they're spending money wisely.
Big difference.
People always talk about long-term investing until the stock drops 10%.
Then suddenly their definition of long term becomes three days.
Look at Google.
At $160 nobody wanted it.
At $400 everybody becomes a believer.
When price is low, ghost story.
When price is high, love story.
The company didn't change.
Only people's cognition changed.
To me, Oracle's earnings were not terrible.
The market was simply expecting perfection.
And when expectations become too high, even a strong report can disappoint.
The market focuses on the next quarter.
Investors should focus on the next five years.
If the long-term thesis is intact, a 10% drop is just volatility.
If a good company falling 10% makes you panic, maybe the problem isn't Oracle.
Maybe your conviction is weaker than a paper prata.
* Muthu Boy, CFA
(Certified Flipping Analyst)
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