I am bearish on SpaceX’s curre

I am bearish on SpaceX’s current valuations. It is quite an insane bet that any company that compound revenue at almost 50% annually for the next 10 years. That is asking for 10 years of consistent outsized performance. In the longer term, I do believe that SpaceX might be able to pull off its space data centre but it is still speculative at this point in time as nothing has been demonstrated yet, not even a prototype is available. Sending rockets and satellites are not quite the same as the picture painted by Elon.

I think this is the most expensive leap of faith that the Wall Street has taken and most are forced to take it as the various index fund managers buy it. This feels like FOMO where many buy the latest hype of town.

I think the next one year will give clarity. There is no need to rush into it now. I wouldn’t be suprised that the price will drop to sound the $60-70. That might be a good and safe entry point just to gain exposure to a speculative future.

SpaceX Surges 9.7% — Is AI Becoming Its Top Business Segment by September Realistic?

SpaceX +9.65%, extending the post-lockup rally. The trigger: Musk forecasting AI becomes its largest segment by September, far sooner than assumed — moving the valuation story from launch and Starlink to compute. The debut print: revenue +92% YoY, a beat; AI losses narrowing faster than expected; AI capex running hot, first flagged as a problem, now read as front-loaded spend. Cathie Wood added on the pullback; JPMorgan reset its target. Value SpaceX on Starlink and launch cash flow, or on AI compute optionality?

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Comments

bubbly9
06-15
bubbly9
Starlink is the real engine, but pricing 10 straight years of 50% growth now is rough. Who's underwriting that $60-70 floor?

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The trigger: Musk forecasting AI becomes its largest segment by September, far sooner than assumed — moving the valuation story from launch and Starlink to compute. The debut print: revenue +92% YoY, a beat; AI losses narrowing faster than expected; AI capex running hot, first flagged as a problem, now read as front-loaded spend. Cathie Wood added on the pullback; JPMorgan reset its target. Value SpaceX on Starlink and launch cash flow, or on AI compute optionality?","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3e2f4792e06a23b881ae0c37c9b65a4"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>I am bearish on SpaceX’s current valuations. It is quite an insane bet that any company that compound revenue at almost 50% annually for the next 10 years. That is asking for 10 years of consistent outsized performance. In the longer term, I do believe that SpaceX might be able to pull off its space data centre but it is still speculative at this point in time as nothing has been demonstrated yet, not even a prototype is available. Sending rockets and satellites are not quite the same as the picture painted by Elon. \n \n \n \nI think this is the most expensive leap of faith that the Wall Street has taken and most are forced to take it as the various index fund managers buy it. This feels like FOMO where many buy the latest hype of town. \n \n \n \nI think the next one year will give clarity. There is no need to rush into it now. I wouldn’t be suprised that the price will drop to sound the $60-70. That might be a good and safe entry point just to gain exposure to a speculative future.</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>I am bearish on SpaceX’s current valuations. It is quite an insane bet that any company that compound revenue at almost 50% annually for the next 10 years. That is asking for 10 years of consistent outsized performance. In the longer term, I do believe that SpaceX might be able to pull off its space data centre but it is still speculative at this point in time as nothing has been demonstrated yet, not even a prototype is available. Sending rockets and satellites are not quite the same as the picture painted by Elon. \n \n \n \nI think this is the most expensive leap of faith that the Wall Street has taken and most are forced to take it as the various index fund managers buy it. This feels like FOMO where many buy the latest hype of town. \n \n \n \nI think the next one year will give clarity. There is no need to rush into it now. I wouldn’t be suprised that the price will drop to sound the $60-70. That might be a good and safe entry point just to gain exposure to a speculative future.</body></html>","text":"I am bearish on SpaceX’s current valuations. It is quite an insane bet that any company that compound revenue at almost 50% annually for the next 10 years. That is asking for 10 years of consistent outsized performance. In the longer term, I do believe that SpaceX might be able to pull off its space data centre but it is still speculative at this point in time as nothing has been demonstrated yet, not even a prototype is available. Sending rockets and satellites are not quite the same as the picture painted by Elon. I think this is the most expensive leap of faith that the Wall Street has taken and most are forced to take it as the various index fund managers buy it. This feels like FOMO where many buy the latest hype of town. I think the next one year will give clarity. There is no need to rush into it now. I wouldn’t be suprised that the price will drop to sound the $60-70. 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Who's underwriting that $60-70 floor?","text":"Starlink is the real engine, but pricing 10 straight years of 50% growth now is rough. Who's underwriting that $60-70 floor?","html":"Starlink is the real engine, but pricing 10 straight years of 50% growth now is rough. Who's underwriting that $60-70 floor?","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/575102071834184"}