Tesla is targeting production

Tesla is targeting production capacity of 1 million robots per year, capacity that could match roughly half its entire 2025 vehicle output, but for an unproven product. A slower ramp doesn’t just delay revenue, it stretches the burn on a parallel manufacturing buildout (Fremont plus a second, larger factory at Giga Texas targeting summer 2027, with long-term capacity of 10 million units annually) while that capacity sits underutilized. Slower ramp = capex committed earlier than revenue arrives = worse near-term free cash flow. This is structurally similar to the AI hyperscaler capex-vs-payback tension

Musk: Optimus Mass Production Will Be Extremely Slow at Start as Technologies Are All Newly Developed

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