SPCX, Blasting or Crashing in Jul & Oct ?

There is a cultural superstition that goes something like "Trouble comes in threes.".

Does this apply to $SpaceX(SPCX)$ ? Let’s investigate !

It wasn’t too long ago that I have shared 2 posts on SPCX:

• 05 Jun 2026 - SPCX, still bidding the IPO ? Warnings - Read first!.

• 01 Jul 2026 - SPCX - Visionary Empire or Vampire Trap ?

It looks like a brewing storm cloud (at the horizon) is gathering pace and moving in fast for the week beginning 06 Jul 2026.

Investors who are SPCX shareholders, please read.

Better yet, have a backup plan ready to use at a moment's notice.

You never know when it might be needed.

Past: Debut & Turbulence

SPCX’s stock market debut has been nothing short of spectacular, but the weeks that followed have revealed the volatility inherent in such high-profile listing.

The rocket, satellite communications, and artificial intelligence (AI) company officially went public on 12 Jun 2026, on the Nasdaq exchange under the ticker SPCX.

After pricing its record-breaking, historic IPO at $135 per share to raise $85.7 billion, the stock opened to the public at $150.

It surged by +19% on its first day of trading to close at roughly $161.

Fueled by massive retail demand and intense investor excitement to own a piece of the next $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ or $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , shares initially soared to an intraday peak of $225.64 on 16 Jun 2026.

Just when early retail buyers filled their orders, active demand began to fade, and the stock quickly fell back to Earth. (see below)

As of 02 Jul 2026

Shares retreated sharply, losing nearly -30% from its intraday highs and settling closer to $150.

The decline was attributed to SPCX's unexpected announcement on 22 Jun 2026, that it would launch a massive $25 billion bond offering. (see above)

The ‘sudden’ heavy borrowing coming just days after IPO caused shares to plunge over -12% in a single day, to close at $154.60.

This move signaled high borrowing costs and created severe selling pressure on its long-term debt from coupon-focused bond investors.

The correction accurately reflects investor concerns about SPCX’s (a) heavy capital expenditures (capex), (b) persistent losses, and (c) looming expiration of insider lockups later this year.

Achievements.

Despite these pressures, SPCX’s operational dominance remains undeniable:

Latest data as of May 2026

• Deployed over 9,600 Starlink satellites across 164 markets. (see above)

• It controls more than 80% of global launch mass annually.

• Maintains a near-perfect Falcon mission success rate,

Its acquisition of xAI and plans to build space-based data centers to run its Grok chatbot and rent out computing capacity, further underscores its ambition to integrate AI into its ecosystem.

Present: 07 July - Twin Catalysts

The next major milestone is SPCX’s planned inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 on 07 Jul 2026.

This event compels index funds & ETFs to purchase SPCX shares, potentially driving short-term gains.

Alongside the Nasdaq-100, other prominent benchmarks like the MSCI World, MSCI AC World, MSCI USA, FTSE Russell 1000, and Nasdaq Composite are expected to rapidly accelerate SPCX's entry.

Permanent setback ?

In contrast, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones have refused to alter its rules.

This means SPCX will be excluded from the heavily tracked S&P 500 for some time due index's requirement of a full year of profitability, a hurdle that historically took $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ a decade to clear.

Potential headwind ?

Hitting home closer is another hurdle taking place concurrently on Tue, 07 Jul 2026.

That is when the expiration of the underwriting syndicate's "quiet period" happens.

Up until this point, a huge syndicate of 23 Wall Street underwriters has been legally restricted from publishing research.

That's not to say there haven't been any opinions issued.

The most bullish comes from Arete Research analyst Andrew Beale:

• He issued a “Buy” rating and a Street-high price target of $401.

• This is based on future potentials of Starship rocket and Starlink V3, SPCX’s next generation satellite.

• These 2 opportunities may open the door for SPCX to compete for suburban broadband but in reality, neither the rocket nor the next-gen satellite is yet airborne.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is $Morningstar(MORN)$ analyst Nicolas Owens:

• He issued a “Sell” rating with a price target of $62, implying a -61% downside based on Wed, 01 Jul 2026’s closing price.

• He argues that much of SPCX's future growth will depend heavily on SPCX’s (a) reusable Starship rockets and (b) ability to effectively execute & commercialize plan for orbital data centers, that are simply no guarantees.

According to Wall Street Journal (WSJ), 13 analysts have issued opinions on SPCX:

• 7 of 13 (53%) have a “Buy” or “Strong buy” rating.

• 4 of 13 (30.77%) have a “Hold” rating.

• 2 of 13 (15.38%) have a “Sell” rating.

Average analyst price target is roughly $229, suggesting potential upside of +45%.

For now, Wall Street is largely positive about SPCX’s future.

However, investors can expect an avalanche of new coverages when the quiet period ends on Tue, 07 Jul 2026.

Brace ? Brace ?

The sudden flood of official bank ratings and price estimates “this” week is bound to spark intense short-term price movements.

Future: Sustainability & LT Outlook

Looking beyond this week, SPCX’s nearly $2 trillion market capitalization already places it among the largest corporations in the world, raising serious questions about long-term sustainability.

SPCX shares currently trade at an astronomically high price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 111, compared to a technology sector average of just 9.

Losses of -$4.9 billion on revenues of $18.7 billion in 2025, coupled with aggressive spending on AI initiatives, suggest profitability may remain elusive.

In fact, capex already reached $20.7 billion last year and are set to go even higher, with over $10 billion expended in Q1 2026 alone.

Perhaps the most “critical” structural factor will arrive later in October 2026, when $800 billion worth of insider shares become eligible for sale, a risk that could flood the market and severely depress prices.

Ultimately, investors must weigh (a) the near-term mechanical boost of index inclusion versus (b) these longer-term risks of dilution, massive spending, and valuation excess.

My afterthoughts : (mine only).

For investors ‘interested’ to buy in early July, SPCX has stayed steady between $150 & $158, which is close to its original opening price.

Joining the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ could also help push the price higher soon.

Overall, the broader picture demands caution.

SPCX’s valuation is heavily dependent on :

1. Future growth assumptions.

2. External shocks, macroeconomic or geopolitical.

These factors could easily disrupt its trajectory.

Many analysts argue that more attractive entry points may emerge later in the year, after the lock-up period passes and the market absorbs insider selling.

Long-term investors who already own shares are advised not to panic sell but rather hold for at least 5-year to allow business execute its grand goals.

Meanwhile, non-shareholders are better off to leave the stock alone and wait for a much deeper pullback before buying into the story or hype.

SPCX represents the paradox of modern investing - a company with unmatched technological achievements and visionary leadership yet burdened by the realities of (i) capital intensity and (ii) speculative valuations.

This stock is not merely a financial instrument; it is a reflection of investor psychology in an era where ambition often outpaces profitability.

Driven by this very mindset, the million-dollar question is — should markets continue to reward innovation at any price, OR will discipline eventually reassert itself?

SPCX may well reach the stars, but the stock is a constant reminder to investors that even the boldest rockets must contend with gravity. Do you agree ?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• HQ - SG quantum stock to Buy & Hold ?

• MSFT vs GOOG, the Blue-er blue chip to Own.

• SPCX - Visionary Empire or Vampire Trap ?

• Do you think SPCX is a long term investment stock ?

• Do you think you can afford to hold long term while its quarterly results are massive losses quarter-after-quarter ?

If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ?

Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.

@Daily_Discussion

@TigerPM

@TigerStars

@Tiger_SG

@TigerEvents