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07-11

The divergence between Wall Street’s "buy" ratings and BofA’s cautious target perfectly highlights the valuation struggle with a company like SpaceX. On one hand, Starlink dominates global satellite internet, and Starship represents a complete monopoly on heavy-lift launch capability.On the other hand, a $152 price point prices in absolute perfection for years to come. The decision by some new ETFs to explicitly exclude Musk-linked assets adds an extra layer of non-fundamental risk (key-man risk and political volatility). I wouldn't call it a "falling knife" just yet given the underlying fundamentals, but chasing this specific rebound without seeing a consolidated base form is highly risky.

SpaceX Crashes 13.6% Ahead of Lockup Expiry — Even Trillion-Dollar Talk Can't Help?
SpaceX −13.61% Wednesday, post-earnings selling amplified by the lockup ahead of it, and one of the Nasdaq's biggest drags. Musk raised the stakes into the slide, saying annual revenue could reach $1 trillion sooner than planned. The market was looking past that: up to ~911.5 million insider and employee shares — 20% of the unlockable total — turn sellable today. Prediction markets put roughly 18% odds on a Tesla-SpaceX merger being announced in 2026. Narrative expanding, supply arriving. Only the first post-lockup print matters?
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