Trump's China optical proposal

Trump's China optical proposal seems to be shaking everything up. $Lumentum(LITE)$ $Coherent(COHR)$ $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ $AXT Inc(AXTI)$ all ripped on the headlines, and the market clearly likes the idea. But I think the bigger picture is worth watching.

If this actually turns into policy, demand for U.S. optical suppliers could surge, which would boost pricing power, long-term contracts, and capacity expansion.

The other side of it though:

The U.S. AI buildout still leans heavily on Chinese optical transceivers.

A full ban right now could slow data center deployments and make supply bottlenecks worse.

China still has leverage through key substrate supply.

A "proposed ban" might be more of a negotiation tool than immediate policy, giving the U.S. leverage in broader trade talks.

The headlines are bullish, but the real outcome probably depends on how the negotiations play out. Curious what others think.

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