$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$  META has been one of the worst-performing MAG7 stocks year to date, but the revenue side still looks strong. Revenue grew nearly 28% year over year, driven by three main factors.

Family daily active people hit 3.60 billion on average for June 2026, up 3% year-over-year. Ad impressions across the Family of Apps rose 14% year-over-year. Average price per ad increased 12% year-over-year. Those three together pushed Q2 revenue past $59 billion.

The headline EPS miss looks less worrying once you dig into the reasons. Meta recorded around $2.4 billion in legal charges and $1.18 billion in severance expenses. Strip out those one-time costs and the core business performed well.

The sell-off is partly tied to Meta slightly raising the low end of its capex guidance. Management now expects 2026 capital expenditures between $130 billion and $145 billion as they build AI computing infrastructure. That spending will likely push free cash flow into negative territory and force the company to raise more capital through the bond market.

The bond market is already reflecting some of these concerns. Meta's five-year credit default swap spread has risen considerably in recent months. A CDS essentially acts as insurance against a company failing to repay its debt, so a rising spread means investors are demanding more compensation for taking on that credit risk. Confidence in Meta's debt quality has dipped as the company borrows more while committing massive capital to AI infrastructure, which ties back to the stock selling off.

Analysts are projecting Meta's EPS to grow from $23.98 in 2025 to $54.91 by 2030, which works out to annualized EPS growth of roughly 18%. The price target math is straightforward: $54.91 projected 2030 EPS times a 21 P/E multiple equals $1,153.17. A 21 multiple is roughly in line with Meta's current valuation and still below its four-year average P/E of 22.14.

Against the current share price of $547.74, that represents about 110.5% upside and an annualized return of roughly 16.1% through 2030, before dividends. Meta doesn't need multiple expansion to generate solid returns; it just needs earnings to grow as analysts expect while holding roughly its current valuation.