$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$’s second-quarter results illustrated both the power and vulnerability of its stablecoin model. USDC circulation and on-chain usage expanded rapidly, but most revenue still depends on interest earned from the assets backing USDC. That makes falling short-term yields a direct pressure on economics even when adoption improves.
Circle reported on August 5 for the quarter ended June 30. USDC in circulation reached $73.3 billion, up 19% year over year, while quarterly on-chain transaction volume increased 151% to $14.8 trillion. Total revenue and reserve income grew 7% to $701 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 8% to $143 million and net income from continuing operations reached $48 million. Circle’s official second-quarter release provides the reported figures.
The bullish thesis is that USDC is becoming infrastructure rather than simply a trading token. Circle received final approval for a US national trust bank and plans to launch its Arc blockchain mainnet on September 16 with institutional validators and integrations. The company raised its 2026 outlook for subscriptions and services revenue to $310–$330 million, potentially reducing dependence on reserve income over time.
The bearish evidence is that reserve yield fell to approximately 3.5%, and quarterly revenue missed the market forecast despite higher USDC circulation. Reuters’ August 5 analysis explains the yield pressure and revenue comparison. Lower policy rates would reduce the return on USDC’s backing assets unless circulation or non-interest revenue grows fast enough to compensate.
Competition is also intensifying. Banks, fintech firms and technology groups can issue or support rival stablecoins, while regulation can change distribution economics. Arc creates a new catalyst but introduces execution and adoption risk; a partner announcement is not the same as sustained transaction fees.
Circle closed almost unchanged at $63.28 on August 5 after trading between $59.13 and $69.52. The wide range shows disagreement over the earnings quality. Approximately $59–$60 is initial support, while $69.50–$70 is resistance. Neither level predicts the next move; changes in USDC circulation and interest rates are more important.
CRCL Daily Chart
$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$’s daily chart remains neutral to cautiously bullish, with price consolidating inside a well-defined $59–$73 range after a steep prior decline, while a descending trendline is now converging with the current price near the low-$60s.
The most important level is $59, which has repeatedly attracted buyers and should be treated as the key support floor; a decisive break below it would invalidate the base and reopen downside risk, while a clean daily close above the descending trendline and then $73 would confirm a much stronger reversal and could trigger a larger recovery.
Because the stock is still range-bound and volatile, selling puts makes more sense than buying calls if you are comfortable owning the shares: a 30–45 DTE cash-secured put around the $55 strike, preferably with a low delta near 0.10–0.20, would place the strike below the established support zone and allow the trade to benefit from time decay while leaving room for normal volatility.
I would avoid selling puts aggressively at or above $59, since that would place the strike too close to the level that defines whether this base is still intact.
The evidence leans neutral to moderately bullish. USDC usage, regulatory standing and non-reserve services are improving, but yield sensitivity prevents a stronger view. The thesis would be invalidated by USDC losing circulation share, reserve income falling faster than other revenue grows, Arc adoption disappointing or regulation materially increasing distribution costs. This is personal opinion for education and is not financial advice.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are personal opinions based on publicly available information and are subject to change without notice. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any investment decisions. I do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented.
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