@TheMarketLens101：2027 Memory Outlook: HBM/DRAM Remain Tight, While NAND Supply Eases The memory market may begin to diverge in 2027. TrendForce expects NAND Flash to remain undersupplied throughout 2026, with an estimated supply deficit of 4–5%. However, as new capacity and more advanced NAND production ramp up, supply could begin exceeding demand in the second half of 2027—particularly if smartphone and notebook demand remains weak. This does not mean NAND demand is collapsing. AI data centres continue to drive strong demand for enterprise SSDs and high-capacity storage. The concern is that supply may eventually grow faster than demand, reducing NAND manufacturers’ pricing power. Investment implications: • SK Hynix $SK hynix(SKHY)$ remains best positioned due to its leadership in HBM, where AI demand and limited production capacity should keep supply tight. • Micron $Micron Technology(MU)$ should also benefit from strong HBM and conventional DRAM demand, although weaker NAND pricing could partly offset this upside. • SanDisk$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ faces the greatest risk because it is primarily exposed to NAND and enterprise SSDs. Its near-term fundamentals remain strong, but earnings and valuation could become more sensitive to lower NAND prices in 2H27. SanDisk does have some protection: half of its FY2027 output and two-thirds of FY2028 production are expected to be covered by long-term agreements. These contracts could help reduce volume and pricing volatility. Bottom line: We maintain a relative preference for SK Hynix and Micron over SanDisk. This is not an immediate bearish signal for SanDisk, but the risk-reward becomes less attractive if NAND supply growth begins to outpace demand in 2H27. Source: TrendForce, Reuters
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