After the sharp pullback and subsequent rebound in the previous phase, major asset classes have returned to a relatively calm pattern. However, the fact that some assets have stalled should not be viewed as a positive signal. If they fail to extend their rebound or make new highs over the coming weeks, it may indicate that another leg lower is approaching.
The first market to watch is crypto, which we have consistently treated as a leading indicator. Although its reference value has deteriorated meaningfully compared with one to two years ago, it has still shown signs of acting as an early mover in the current market cycle. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded sharply from late June, but have spent the past six weeks hovering near their lower ranges.
$比特币(BTC.USD.CC)$ $比特币(BTC.USD.HKCC)$ $美元指数(USDindex.FOREX)$ $欧元主连 2609(EURmain)$ $日元主连 2609(JPYmain)$ $加元主连 2609(CADmain)$ $SG人民币主连 2609(UCmain)$ $HK人民币主连 2609(CNHmain)$ $小型HK人民币主连 2609(MCNHmain)$
(Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.)
(Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.)
This type of consolidation at relatively low price levels is clearly more favorable to bears. Bitcoin is currently around $63,000, leaving less than 10% downside to the previous low of $57,800. A break below that level could leave the market without meaningful nearby support and expose it to a more direct decline. For bulls, Bitcoin needs to rise above $67,000 to stabilize and open the way for a more sustained rebound. The key range to watch is therefore $57,800 to $67,000, with the next directional move likely to be determined by a breakout from this range.
The second area to watch is the equity market. Compared with the relatively stable and persistent strength in U.S. equities, whether Japan’s Nikkei can make new highs and whether South Korea’s stock market can return above 8,000 are the core issues. As one of the previous first-tier performers, a renewed move to fresh highs in the Nikkei would allow it to catch up with U.S. equities. Conversely, failure to do so could complete the formation of a second top and lay the groundwork for a further decline.
(Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.)
It is worth noting that, unlike the previous rapid adjustment, the next decline could potentially mark a transition from a bull market to a bear market. For Japanese equities, the lower support boundary is around 60,000 points; a break below that level would be regarded as a clear bearish signal.
(Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.)
Korea’s KOSPI remains well below its highs. Our previous assessment was that Korean equities had already formed a clear top, so the key is simply to monitor when 5,262 is decisively broken.
$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $微型NQ100指数2609(MNQ2609)$ $NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ $NQ100指数2609(NQ2609)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ $投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR(SPYM)$ $2倍做多SPY Quarterly ETF-Tradr(SPYQ)$
Finally, we turn to gold, which was our focus last week. Gold futures pulled back after generating a ninth daily signal last week. Although the decline was limited and quickly reversed, spot gold has still failed to break above this year’s descending trendline. This suggests that futures and spot are not moving in sync, creating a risk of a short-term bull trap.
For now, spot gold should be used as the primary reference. A break above and sustained hold over 4,450 would signal an extension of the rebound. Conversely, a break below 4,311 would raise the risk of a retest of 4,202 and 4,166.
Other commodities, such as crude oil, may also provide useful signals in the broader context. However, because decisive action toward Iran is not expected until the fourth quarter, oil prices are likely to remain range-bound for now. The battle around 85 will determine the relative balance between bulls and bears in the short term.
Strategy
The long EUR futures position entered at 1.1420 remains in place. With the recent move now underway, the stop-loss has been raised further to 1.1520. Targets remain unchanged at 1.1770 and 1.2420, with half of the position to be taken off at each target.
For crude oil, we continue to hold a long position with an average entry price of 75. The rebound has been strong, but the first target has not yet been reached. We therefore continue to expect range-bound trading in the short term and will maintain the existing plan for now, with the possibility of raising the stop-loss later. The current stop-loss is set at 60, with targets at 95 and 115, again with half of the position allocated to each target.
$WTI原油主连 2610(CLmain)$ $WTI原油2609(CL2609)$ $布油现金主连 2612(BZmain)$ $天然气主连 2609(NGmain)$ $小原油主连 2609(QMmain)$ $小天然气主连 2609(QGmain)$ $微型WTI原油主连 2609(MCLmain)$
This week, the pending orders for gold remain in place, with minor adjustments. The priority is to look for short opportunities: place limit sell orders at 4,760 and 5,170, with half of the position at each level; the stop-loss is 5,275, and the target is 4,000. For long entries, place limit buy orders at 4,215 and 4,065, with a stop-loss at 3,955, and targets at 4,510 and 4,695. These pending orders remain valid until cancelled.
$黄金主连 2612(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2612(MGCmain)$ $微黄金2612(MGC2612)$ $黄金2612(GC2612)$ $白银主连 2609(SImain)$ $100盎司白银主连 2609(SICmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2612(1OZmain)$ $微白银主连 2609(SILmain)$
P.S. Once the first target is reached, the stop-loss will automatically be adjusted to the entry level. Any further revisions after execution will be communicated in subsequent articles.
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