Ben Tiger
08-23

Micron Technology (MU)

Recent Q3 FY2026 results (ended May 2026) were exceptional: revenue ~$41.5B (+346% YoY), adjusted EPS ~$25.11 (well above estimates), and gross margins ~84.6%. Guidance for Q4 points to ~$50B revenue and ~$31 EPS, with margins near 86%. Long-term supply agreements (including take-or-pay contracts and deposits) lock in multi-year demand; HBM4 volume shipments are ramping. Capex is rising sharply ($27B in FY2026, higher in 2027) to expand capacity.

Shares have surged hundreds of percent over the past year (market cap >$1T) but pulled back from peaks near $1,255 to around $960–$970 recently amid broader AI volatility and some NAND cooling signs. Valuation remains attractive (forward P/E in the low-to-mid teens/single digits on elevated earnings), with analyst targets implying 50%+ upside

Future potential: Strong. Structural AI memory demand (HBM and high-bandwidth needs) should support elevated pricing and margins for several years. Risks include eventual supply response and cyclical pricing. Positive for AI-exposed portfolios seeking memory leverage.

Nearly 10,000 Micron Taiwan Workers Weigh Strike — Memory Risk Shifts From Price to Production?
Memory pulled back: Micron −2.64%, SanDisk −1.90%, SK Hynix −2.31%, 3x SOXL −6.10%, erasing the prior session's rebalance pop. The new variable is supply — a union of ~10,000 workers at Micron's Taiwan sites may strike over bonuses and profit-sharing, the first time this cycle the risk shifts from "will prices peak" to "can the lines run." CXMT also reportedly cracked next-gen AI memory, H1 revenue +874%, reviving share-war talk; Micron's multi-year fixed contracts are flagged as capping upside as spot rises. One-off disruption to buy, or a supply-side crack that rewrites memory valuation?
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