PCTEO
09-12 20:43
Oil Strategy


Oil prices could pull back after the recent surge, but the risk of staying above US$100/barrel is significant if Middle East supply disruptions persist. I would expect considerable volatility rather than a straight upward move.


Potential beneficiaries:


* Integrated oil majors: Exxon Mobil, Chevron
* Low-cost producers: ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources, Occidental
* Oilfield services: SLB, Halliburton
* Midstream/infrastructure: Enbridge, Kinder Morgan
* Gold/precious metals could also benefit from inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.


Potential losers:


* Airlines and transportation companies
* Chemicals and other oil-intensive industries
* Consumer discretionary businesses
* Highly leveraged companies
* Expensive, speculative growth stocks if higher inflation keeps interest rates elevated.


If oil remains above $100 for years, I would increase exposure to energy, precious metals and real assets, while maintaining diversified global equities.
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