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U.S. Dollar: 102.1–101.6 Is the Key Range
On October 8, the U.S. Dollar Index rallied but failed to break above its previous high before pulling back, closing the day with a bearish candle featuring a long upper wick. In my view, near-term upward momentum has weakened somewhat. For October 9, my initial focus is on the 102.1–101.6 range. If the index continues to struggle to break decisively above resistance, a pullback in the dollar could provide support for gold.$美元指数(USDindex.FOREX)$
Gold: The Intraday Bias Remains Bullish as Long as 4,130 Holds
Gold traded within a roughly $40 range on October 8, with repeated intraday swings as buyers and sellers battled for control. Nevertheless, the daily candle closed bullish with a long wick, and the overall price range continued to shift higher. In early trading on October 9, gold rebounded rapidly by around $20 from near 4,130. As long as there is no decisive break below 4,130, I favor viewing the market as range-bound with a bullish bias.
$黄金主连 2612(GCmain)$ $黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ $1盎司黄金2612(1OZ2612)$ $微黄金主连 2612(MGCmain)$
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The initial upside area to watch is 4,150–4,170. If the first test of this zone fails to produce a breakout, there may be an opportunity for a small short position within the range. A decisive break above 4,170 would shift attention to whether the rally can extend toward the high reached during the previous nonfarm payrolls-driven move. If prices pull back again toward the October 8 low or a key low for this week, I would prioritize potential long opportunities after support holds and prices stabilize, rather than chasing rallies or selling into declines within a choppy market.
Crude Oil: Range Trading and Breakout Scenarios Both Remain in Play, with Fresh Bullish Momentum Taking Shape
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On October 8, crude oil rallied before pulling back, closing the day with a bullish candle featuring a long upper wick. Selling pressure at elevated levels remains a concern. For intraday trading, I would initially treat the market as a wide trading range: watch resistance at 93 and the stronger resistance level at 95.5, alongside support at 89 and the stronger support level at 87. Near resistance, watch for signs of selling pressure; on a return to support, watch for stabilization rather than positioning for a breakout in advance.$美国原油ETF(USO)$ $WTI原油主连 2611(CLmain)$ $小原油主连 2611(QMmain)$ $布油现金主连 2612(BZmain)$ $微型WTI原油主连 2611(MCLmain)$
Over a longer time horizon, a separate line of analysis suggests that crude oil is rebuilding momentum after a period of consolidation. This view is based on an average global crude inventory draw of approximately 1.9 million barrels per day in the third quarter, expectations for further inventory draws in the fourth quarter, and a supply shortfall that has not been fully offset by releases from strategic reserves. The earlier opportunity to short at elevated levels came to an end near the support zone around 88. Following roughly half a month of adjustment, and taking changes in geopolitical developments into account, the long side warrants renewed attention.
These two views depend on different market conditions. In the short term, the range remains the starting point. If the technical structure strengthens, use support near 86.8 as a reference and watch for a break above 94. Following a breakout, the next upside area to monitor is the 102–106 supply zone. Selling pressure could increase progressively above 106, so even short-term long positions require stop-loss adjustments as prices rise.
In trading, greater emphasis should be placed on how prices react once key levels are tested, rather than trying to anticipate every move within a trading range.
The above is market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
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