[Stock Prediction] Another Record Quarter for TSMC — What’s Next for the Stock?

Tiger_Earnings
10-13 17:56
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TSMC reports third-quarter earnings on October 15.The numbers already look strong. TSMC’s Q3 revenue rose about 50% year over year to NT$1.49 trillion, beating market expectations. Reuters estimates net profit could jump roughly 65% to NT$746.3 billion, which would mark a sixth straight quarter of record earnings. $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$

AI demand remains the main driver. TSMC continues to benefit from advanced-chip demand from Nvidia, Apple and other major customers, while CoWoS and leading-edge capacity remain tight. Reuters also noted that Morgan Stanley expects TSMC could raise its 2026 revenue-growth outlook into the low-to-mid 40% range.

But sentiment around AI stocks has become more fragile. Even strong earnings from major chipmakers have failed to lift the sector recently, as investors question how long AI spending can keep rising and whether returns will justify the massive capital being deployed.

Earning Highlight

  • AI demand: Is customer demand still strong enough to support another leg of growth?

  • Margins: Can TSMC keep profitability high as 2nm and overseas capacity ramp up?

  • Guidance: Will management raise its outlook again, or has the market already priced in too much?

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Event Period

  • Ends: 12:00 PM SGT, October 15

How will TSM close Thur after its earnings report?(Maximum1 votes)
  • Very Green (more than 10%)(9 votes)
  • Green (5% to 10%)(24 votes)
  • Flat (-5% to 5%)(27 votes)
  • Red (-10% to-5%)(3 votes)
  • Very Red (below-10%)(5 votes)
ASML reports today—which metrics matter most in semis Q3 season?
Semiconductor Q3 earnings season starts today: ASML reports October 14 a.m. ET, TSMC October 15 a.m. Watch ASML's EUV order book — the read on fabs' 12-to-18-month capex confidence — plus TSMC's CoWoS capacity constraints, full-year AI chip demand and margin guidance. Bulls say neither has signaled cooling demand; sustained guidance extends AI capex momentum. Bears say memory stocks just reeled from China's domestic DRAM breakthrough, and weak equipment orders would pressure the whole semiconductor chain. If ASML's order book disappoints, how far beyond semis does the damage spread?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • swq23_興旺發
    10-14 16:41
    swq23_興旺發
    I vote Flat for Thursday close.

    Reason is simple — Q3 already leaked. Revenue up 50% to 1.49T, profit up 65% to 746B, 6th record quarter. Market knows already. TSM ADR now $445, up a lot this year.

    So Oct 15 earnings likely beat, but stock may not shoot 10% unless Q4 guidance super bullish. AI demand still main driver, but a lot priced in already.

    For me i hold long term, short term maybe flat to small green 2-3%. If dip i will add. Not financial advice, just sharing.

  • Shyon
    10-13 23:38
    Shyon
    I am bullish on $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ TSMC’s long-term outlook, supported by strong AI chip demand from $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , $Apple(AAPL)$ and other major customers. The impressive revenue growth shows that AI infrastructure spending remains a powerful growth driver.

    For the post-earnings move, my guess is flat (-5% to +5%). Even if TSMC delivers strong results, the market may have already priced in much of the good news, especially with sentiment around AI stocks becoming more cautious.

    I will be watching management’s guidance on 2026 growth, 2nm production and profit margins. Personally, I prefer to stay patient and focus on long-term fundamentals rather than chase short-term price movements.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerClub @TigerPicks @TigerStars

  • 1PC
    10-13 22:56
    1PC
    I’m leaning Flat (-5% to +5%) 📊. TSMC’s revenue up ~50% & profit expected +65% 🚀, but AI sentiment feels fragile. Even strong chip earnings haven’t lifted the sector. Margins, 2nm ramp‑up, & overseas expansion matter, yet the market may need more than another record quarter to push higher.[What]@JC888 @Barcode @Shyon @koolgal @Aqa @DiAngel @Shernice軒嬣 2000
  • 苏36
    10-13 22:30
    苏36
    My Vote: Green (5% to 10%)

    TSMC’s Q3 revenue surged 50% year over year, but Thursday’s reaction will depend more on forward guidance than record earnings.

    AI demand remains strong, yet investors increasingly question whether massive AI investments can generate sustainable returns. I’ll watch 2027 demand, CoWoS capacity, and whether 2nm expansion pressures margins.

    My base case is a 5%–10% gain if management raises its growth outlook while protecting profitability. However, even excellent results could trigger profit-taking if expectations are already excessive.

    The real question isn't whether TSMC is growing, but whether future profits can exceed market expectations. In this market, beating estimates may not be enough; management must convince investors that AI growth remains sustainable.

    @Tiger_Earnings [嘘]

  • koolgal
    10-14 04:29
    koolgal
    🌟🌟🌟I believe that $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ is likely to close Green, 5% to 10% post earnings.  Why?  TSMC has officially posted a record shattering Q3 revenue of NTD 1.49 trillion (USD 46.71 billion) on October 8.  This represents a mind boggling 50% year on year increase.  It also completely cleared the upper ceiling of TSMC's own Q3 guidance bracket of USD 44.6 billion to USD 45.8 billion.

    Net profit is projected to expand by 65%.  This sheer financial dominance provides a rock solid floor that prevents the stock from turning flat or red.

    Morgan Stanley is predicting that TSMC's management will lift its full year 2026 revenue guidance up to the low to mid 40% range.  This sends a clear message that the AI boom is not slowing down.

    Exciting times are ahead for TSMC.🌈🌈🌈💰💰💰

    @Tiger_Earnings @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG

  • 吉3186
    10-13 20:41
    吉3186
    我个人偏向 B：上涨0%–5%，但不排除利好出尽的风险。

    台积电受惠于AI芯片需求，营收和盈利表现强劲。不过，股价上涨不只看业绩，还要看未来增长是否超出市场预期。

    我会重点关注管理层对2027年订单、2nm进展和毛利率的指引。如果业绩很好，但未来展望不够亮眼，股价也可能下跌。

    我的策略是不会盲目追高，等财报公布后观察市场反应，再考虑分批买入。好公司也要买在合理的价格！

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