TSMC’s Q3 revenue surged 50% year over year, but Thursday’s reaction will depend more on forward guidance than record earnings.

AI demand remains strong, yet investors increasingly question whether massive AI investments can generate sustainable returns. I’ll watch 2027 demand, CoWoS capacity, and whether 2nm expansion pressures margins.

My base case is a 5%–10% gain if management raises its growth outlook while protecting profitability. However, even excellent results could trigger profit-taking if expectations are already excessive.

The real question isn't whether TSMC is growing, but whether future profits can exceed market expectations. In this market, beating estimates may not be enough; management must convince investors that AI growth remains sustainable.

@Tiger_Earnings [嘘]