Recently, the financial markets have been navigating a landscape of uncertainty, driven by factors such as Trump’s potential tariff policies, persistent inflation concerns, and a slowing U.S. economy. This shift in sentiment has led investors to seek safer assets, pushing U.S. Treasuries up by over 2.5% in the past quarter, while U.S. stocks have declined by 5%. Notably, this is the first time since the 2020 pandemic that Treasuries have outperformed equities on a quarterly basis, underscoring their appeal as a defensive asset. TLT’s Recent Price Increase and My Holding Strategy TLT has seen a notable price increase recently, reinforcing my confidence in its long-term value. The 52-week price range for TLT has been $84.89 to $101.64, and in the overnight market, it is currently around $92.
US Treasuries May Take Hit: Time to Go Short on TLT?
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose to 4.5% today, and TLT may face greater risks in the near term. China holds over $700 billion in U.S. Treasuries, and in an extreme scenario, if it decides to retaliate against the U.S. by dumping bonds on the market, short-term yields could come under significant upward pressure. While the Fed could step in and print money to buy, the room for yields to fall may be limited before this risk is fully priced in. Are you still holding U.S. Treasuries? What’s your trading strategy?
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