1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Since forming a low at 4835.04 on April 7th, the S&P 500 has rallied nearly 650 points, pushing us up toward the 5500 level. For the past four trading days, price has been consolidating inside last Wednesday’s candle range and now the big question on everyone’s mind is: Where do we go next?I like to approach things through scenarios, so here are three potential scenarios I’m watching over the next few weeks:Scenario 1: Bullish 📈 SPX back tests 5350 and holds. We chop in a 5350–5500 range, then break above 5500 and begin filling the gap to the upside. As we form higher lows during the gap fill, momentum builds for a run toward 5700.Scenario 2: Bearish 📉 SPX back tests 5350, ranges between 5350–5400, then breaks down. We l

$Strategy(MSTR)$ stock holding support well after triple bounce off that level. Stock has top of the trendline at $320 if breaks we can see a breakout of downtrend.ImageWhat’s more, the company did a relatively good job with its purchases, as the average purchase price was about 2.8% below current levels, at $84,977.To raise the money to buy the bitcoin, Strategy disclosed the public sale of 959,712 of its common shares, also from April 7 to April 13. With net proceeds of $285.7 million, that implies the company sold the shares at around $297.69.That compares to the volume-weighted average closing price of the stock during the week of about $267.92.Good sign to see!

MTA成立的初心是爲了幫助投資者理性投資，從實戰中學習，推崇的投資理念是穩定回報。作爲示範的模擬期權組合自2022年以來，經歷了22，23年港股大跌，卻一直獲取了正回報，而95%以上的交易平倉都是獲利，整個投資組合的波動和回撤都相當低。應該是成功示範了穩健的投資風格以及重視風險管理的投資理念，期望較爲平滑的回報曲綫，應對波動的市況。目前筆者爲了反饋讀者，將模擬期權投資組合放在了公開頁面，以及港股量化選股列表，供大家驗證和研究。雖然筆者亦經常分享美股指數短期看法，亦有即日買賣策略，但短綫炒賣并非一定是高風險，尤其是即日平倉之炒賣，每日波幅有數得計，風險即相對有限，只不過一直屬於機構和專業投資者領域，散戶缺乏合適的工具和資訊，往往難以競爭。又需要大量的精力時間專注在市場，如非全職基本上很難做到。即日炒賣的心得筆者日後再講，本期講一講一般業餘散戶投資者最爲適合的投資策略。先講講選股策略：第一個概念，相對强弱。相對强弱并非指RSI，而是相對於大市的强弱，這一概念由知名基金經理William O’Neil應用取得巨大成功之後推廣於世。後起之秀包括Mark Miniverni，Oliver Kell，Kristjan Kullamägi等一衆投資比賽冠軍，他們在股市裏面賺取了驚人的回報和財富，研究他們的技術，相似之處在於跟隨趨勢，尋找那些有潛力遠超大市表現的個股。這些股票通常都會在早期表現出强於大市的獨立走勢。第二個概念，波動率。這一點是與眾投資冠軍有分別的地方，投資冠軍傾向於高波動性的股票，理由很簡單，高波動性才會有超高回報。高回報聽起來很美好，如果不加後半句就疑似騙案。後半句是高波動性高回報但面對的是低成功率和較高風險，因此必須特別注重止損和風險管理，這是適合經驗豐富的職業選手。幸運的是，根據研究數據顯示，低波動率的個股，平均來講較能夠取得超額回報。我想背後的理由，應當是低波動率往

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