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墨池思存
2020-11-02
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The Fed is not expected to expand bond purchases this year and next or switch to longer-term bonds
墨池思存
2020-11-02
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墨池思存
2020-10-23
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After the September 15-16 meeting, the Federal Reserve further clarified the path of interest rates in the next few years, but there was no new guidance on whether it might change the scale or model of its bond purchase program.</p><p>According to a Bloomberg survey conducted on October 23-29, 54% of respondents said that the Federal Reserve has so far failed to \"adequately describe balance sheet policy and link it to economic goals.\"</p><p>\"Aside from the strong forward guidance that Federal Funds rate will remain near zero for longer, monetary policy is now highly opaque,\" said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.</p><p>However, other interviewees said it was unfair to expect new news from the Federal Reserve before the results of the US election were clear.</p><p>\"The Fed must observe the impact of the election on fiscal policy before making a decision,\" said Christopher Low, chief economist at FHN Financial.</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/664/w447h217/20201102/c21a-kcieyvz4277219.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>In this survey, 59% of economists said they did not expect the Fed to increase the scale of bond purchases before the end of 2021, and few expected policy adjustments at the November meeting.</p><p>Bond Purchase Program</p><p>The Federal Reserve is currently buying $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month to help markets run smoothly and put downward pressure on borrowing rates that households and businesses bear.</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/721/w455h266/20201102/cdff-kcieyvz4277843.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>\"The baseline scenario assumes that the U.S. economy will remain on track and will not need to increase purchases,\" said Roberto Perli, a partner at Cornerstone Macro. \"But if things get worse, I think the Fed will quickly increase its purchases.\"</p><p>Two-thirds of those who expect the Fed to expand its bond purchases expect it to be in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>When asked whether it would have a meaningful impact on the economy if the Fed significantly increased its bond purchases, only 24% thought it would.</p><p>Economists strongly oppose the idea that the Federal Reserve may change its purchase mix and focus more on Treasury Bond. In contrast, 61% expect the Federal Reserve to eventually change the maturity distribution of bond purchases, preferring bonds with longer maturities. Their current bond buying operations are roughly balanced and spread across various maturities.</p><p>Of the economists who expect the Fed to adjust the maturity of the bonds it purchases, 79% expect it to be implemented in December or the first quarter of next year.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed is not expected to expand bond purchases this year and next or switch to longer-term bonds</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed is not expected to expand bond purchases this year and next or switch to longer-term bonds\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-11-02 04:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg believe that the Fed will not speed up asset purchases this year or next year, and even if the Fed expands bond purchases, it will not provide a meaningful boost to the U.S. economy.</p><p>Many Fed watchers want more forward-looking guidance on the central bank's balance sheet policy, but don't expect any new clues from the November 4-5 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. After the September 15-16 meeting, the Federal Reserve further clarified the path of interest rates in the next few years, but there was no new guidance on whether it might change the scale or model of its bond purchase program.</p><p>According to a Bloomberg survey conducted on October 23-29, 54% of respondents said that the Federal Reserve has so far failed to \"adequately describe balance sheet policy and link it to economic goals.\"</p><p>\"Aside from the strong forward guidance that Federal Funds rate will remain near zero for longer, monetary policy is now highly opaque,\" said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.</p><p>However, other interviewees said it was unfair to expect new news from the Federal Reserve before the results of the US election were clear.</p><p>\"The Fed must observe the impact of the election on fiscal policy before making a decision,\" said Christopher Low, chief economist at FHN Financial.</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/664/w447h217/20201102/c21a-kcieyvz4277219.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>In this survey, 59% of economists said they did not expect the Fed to increase the scale of bond purchases before the end of 2021, and few expected policy adjustments at the November meeting.</p><p>Bond Purchase Program</p><p>The Federal Reserve is currently buying $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month to help markets run smoothly and put downward pressure on borrowing rates that households and businesses bear.</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/721/w455h266/20201102/cdff-kcieyvz4277843.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>\"The baseline scenario assumes that the U.S. economy will remain on track and will not need to increase purchases,\" said Roberto Perli, a partner at Cornerstone Macro. \"But if things get worse, I think the Fed will quickly increase its purchases.\"</p><p>Two-thirds of those who expect the Fed to expand its bond purchases expect it to be in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>When asked whether it would have a meaningful impact on the economy if the Fed significantly increased its bond purchases, only 24% thought it would.</p><p>Economists strongly oppose the idea that the Federal Reserve may change its purchase mix and focus more on Treasury Bond. In contrast, 61% expect the Federal Reserve to eventually change the maturity distribution of bond purchases, preferring bonds with longer maturities. Their current bond buying operations are roughly balanced and spread across various maturities.</p><p>Of the economists who expect the Fed to adjust the maturity of the bonds it purchases, 79% expect it to be implemented in December or the first quarter of next year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-11-02/doc-iiznezxr9355664.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SPY":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-11-02/doc-iiznezxr9355664.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2080604888","content_text":"彭博调查的经济学家大多认为，美联储今年或明年都不会加快资产购买速度，而即便美联储扩大购债，也不会对美国经济构成富有意义的提振。许多美联储观察人士希望得到关于央行资产负债表政策的更多前瞻指引，但预计联邦公开市场委员会11月4-5日会议不会给出任何新线索。9月15-16日会议后，美联储进一步明确了未来几年的利率路径，但对是否可能改变购债计划的规模或模式，没有任何新指引。彭博于10月23-29日进行的调查显示，54%的受访者称美联储迄今为止都没有“充分描述资产负债表政策并将其与经济目标挂钩”。“除了联邦基金利率将在更长时间维持在近零水平这个强有力的前瞻指引外，货币政策现在高度不透明，”Point Loma Nazarene University首席经济学家Lynn Reaser表示。然而其他受访者表示，在美国大选结果明朗前期待美联储给出新消息，是不公平的。“美联储做决定前必须先观察大选对财政政策的影响，”FHN Financial首席经济学家Christopher Low表示。在这项调查中，59%的经济学家表示预计美联储不会在2021年底前提高购债规模，几乎没人预期11月会议上会有政策调整。购债计划美联储目前每月购买800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，以帮助市场平稳运行，并对家庭和企业承受的借款利率施加下行压力。“基准情形假设是美国经济将保持在正轨，不需要增加购买量，”Cornerstone Macro合伙人Roberto Perli表示。“但如果情况恶化，我认为美联储将迅速增加购买量。”在预计美联储将扩大购债规模的人当中，三分之二预计会是在2021年第一季度。当被问到若美联储大幅提高购债规模，是否会对经济产生富有意义的影响时，只有24%的人认为会。经济学家强烈反对美联储可能改变购买组合，更多偏重国债的想法。相比之下，61%的人预期美联储将最终改变购买债券的期限分布，更偏重期限较长的债券。他们目前的购债操作大致平衡分散在各个期限上。在预计美联储将调整所购债券期限的经济学家中，79%预计将在12月或明年第一季度实施。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SPXU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPY":1,".DJI":1,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":306978334,"gmtCreate":1604267335228,"gmtModify":1704955313201,"author":{"id":"3564397746531755","authorId":"3564397746531755","name":"墨池思存","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9df42be54916e8618a324eb2723690","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564397746531755","authorIdStr":"3564397746531755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/306978334","repostId":"2080960436","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":301153178,"gmtCreate":1603413927094,"gmtModify":1705072429057,"author":{"id":"3564397746531755","authorId":"3564397746531755","name":"墨池思存","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9df42be54916e8618a324eb2723690","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564397746531755","authorIdStr":"3564397746531755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/301153178","repostId":"1156722173","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":301153178,"gmtCreate":1603413927094,"gmtModify":1705072429057,"author":{"id":"3564397746531755","authorId":"3564397746531755","name":"墨池思存","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9df42be54916e8618a324eb2723690","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564397746531755","authorIdStr":"3564397746531755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/301153178","repostId":"1156722173","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":306978120,"gmtCreate":1604267765560,"gmtModify":1704955313038,"author":{"id":"3564397746531755","authorId":"3564397746531755","name":"墨池思存","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9df42be54916e8618a324eb2723690","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564397746531755","authorIdStr":"3564397746531755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/306978120","repostId":"2080604888","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2080604888","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1604261466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2080604888?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-11-02 04:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed is not expected to expand bond purchases this year and next or switch to longer-term bonds","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2080604888","media":"新浪财经","summary":"彭博调查的经济学家大多认为，美联储今年或明年都不会加快资产购买速度，而即便美联储扩大购债，也不会对美国经济构成富有意义的提振。在这项调查中，59%的经济学家表示预计美联储不会在2021年底前提高购债规模，几乎没人预期11月会议上会有政策调整。在预计美联储将扩大购债规模的人当中，三分之二预计会是在2021年第一季度。相比之下，61%的人预期美联储将最终改变购买债券的期限分布，更偏重期限较长的债券。","content":"<p><html><body>Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg believe that the Fed will not speed up asset purchases this year or next year, and even if the Fed expands bond purchases, it will not provide a meaningful boost to the U.S. economy.</p><p>Many Fed watchers want more forward-looking guidance on the central bank's balance sheet policy, but don't expect any new clues from the November 4-5 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. After the September 15-16 meeting, the Federal Reserve further clarified the path of interest rates in the next few years, but there was no new guidance on whether it might change the scale or model of its bond purchase program.</p><p>According to a Bloomberg survey conducted on October 23-29, 54% of respondents said that the Federal Reserve has so far failed to \"adequately describe balance sheet policy and link it to economic goals.\"</p><p>\"Aside from the strong forward guidance that Federal Funds rate will remain near zero for longer, monetary policy is now highly opaque,\" said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.</p><p>However, other interviewees said it was unfair to expect new news from the Federal Reserve before the results of the US election were clear.</p><p>\"The Fed must observe the impact of the election on fiscal policy before making a decision,\" said Christopher Low, chief economist at FHN Financial.</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/664/w447h217/20201102/c21a-kcieyvz4277219.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>In this survey, 59% of economists said they did not expect the Fed to increase the scale of bond purchases before the end of 2021, and few expected policy adjustments at the November meeting.</p><p>Bond Purchase Program</p><p>The Federal Reserve is currently buying $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month to help markets run smoothly and put downward pressure on borrowing rates that households and businesses bear.</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/721/w455h266/20201102/cdff-kcieyvz4277843.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>\"The baseline scenario assumes that the U.S. economy will remain on track and will not need to increase purchases,\" said Roberto Perli, a partner at Cornerstone Macro. \"But if things get worse, I think the Fed will quickly increase its purchases.\"</p><p>Two-thirds of those who expect the Fed to expand its bond purchases expect it to be in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>When asked whether it would have a meaningful impact on the economy if the Fed significantly increased its bond purchases, only 24% thought it would.</p><p>Economists strongly oppose the idea that the Federal Reserve may change its purchase mix and focus more on Treasury Bond. In contrast, 61% expect the Federal Reserve to eventually change the maturity distribution of bond purchases, preferring bonds with longer maturities. Their current bond buying operations are roughly balanced and spread across various maturities.</p><p>Of the economists who expect the Fed to adjust the maturity of the bonds it purchases, 79% expect it to be implemented in December or the first quarter of next year.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed is not expected to expand bond purchases this year and next or switch to longer-term bonds</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed is not expected to expand bond purchases this year and next or switch to longer-term bonds\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-11-02 04:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg believe that the Fed will not speed up asset purchases this year or next year, and even if the Fed expands bond purchases, it will not provide a meaningful boost to the U.S. economy.</p><p>Many Fed watchers want more forward-looking guidance on the central bank's balance sheet policy, but don't expect any new clues from the November 4-5 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. After the September 15-16 meeting, the Federal Reserve further clarified the path of interest rates in the next few years, but there was no new guidance on whether it might change the scale or model of its bond purchase program.</p><p>According to a Bloomberg survey conducted on October 23-29, 54% of respondents said that the Federal Reserve has so far failed to \"adequately describe balance sheet policy and link it to economic goals.\"</p><p>\"Aside from the strong forward guidance that Federal Funds rate will remain near zero for longer, monetary policy is now highly opaque,\" said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.</p><p>However, other interviewees said it was unfair to expect new news from the Federal Reserve before the results of the US election were clear.</p><p>\"The Fed must observe the impact of the election on fiscal policy before making a decision,\" said Christopher Low, chief economist at FHN Financial.</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/664/w447h217/20201102/c21a-kcieyvz4277219.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>In this survey, 59% of economists said they did not expect the Fed to increase the scale of bond purchases before the end of 2021, and few expected policy adjustments at the November meeting.</p><p>Bond Purchase Program</p><p>The Federal Reserve is currently buying $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month to help markets run smoothly and put downward pressure on borrowing rates that households and businesses bear.</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/721/w455h266/20201102/cdff-kcieyvz4277843.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>\"The baseline scenario assumes that the U.S. economy will remain on track and will not need to increase purchases,\" said Roberto Perli, a partner at Cornerstone Macro. \"But if things get worse, I think the Fed will quickly increase its purchases.\"</p><p>Two-thirds of those who expect the Fed to expand its bond purchases expect it to be in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>When asked whether it would have a meaningful impact on the economy if the Fed significantly increased its bond purchases, only 24% thought it would.</p><p>Economists strongly oppose the idea that the Federal Reserve may change its purchase mix and focus more on Treasury Bond. In contrast, 61% expect the Federal Reserve to eventually change the maturity distribution of bond purchases, preferring bonds with longer maturities. Their current bond buying operations are roughly balanced and spread across various maturities.</p><p>Of the economists who expect the Fed to adjust the maturity of the bonds it purchases, 79% expect it to be implemented in December or the first quarter of next year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-11-02/doc-iiznezxr9355664.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SPY":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-11-02/doc-iiznezxr9355664.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2080604888","content_text":"彭博调查的经济学家大多认为，美联储今年或明年都不会加快资产购买速度，而即便美联储扩大购债，也不会对美国经济构成富有意义的提振。许多美联储观察人士希望得到关于央行资产负债表政策的更多前瞻指引，但预计联邦公开市场委员会11月4-5日会议不会给出任何新线索。9月15-16日会议后，美联储进一步明确了未来几年的利率路径，但对是否可能改变购债计划的规模或模式，没有任何新指引。彭博于10月23-29日进行的调查显示，54%的受访者称美联储迄今为止都没有“充分描述资产负债表政策并将其与经济目标挂钩”。“除了联邦基金利率将在更长时间维持在近零水平这个强有力的前瞻指引外，货币政策现在高度不透明，”Point Loma Nazarene University首席经济学家Lynn Reaser表示。然而其他受访者表示，在美国大选结果明朗前期待美联储给出新消息，是不公平的。“美联储做决定前必须先观察大选对财政政策的影响，”FHN Financial首席经济学家Christopher Low表示。在这项调查中，59%的经济学家表示预计美联储不会在2021年底前提高购债规模，几乎没人预期11月会议上会有政策调整。购债计划美联储目前每月购买800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，以帮助市场平稳运行，并对家庭和企业承受的借款利率施加下行压力。“基准情形假设是美国经济将保持在正轨，不需要增加购买量，”Cornerstone Macro合伙人Roberto Perli表示。“但如果情况恶化，我认为美联储将迅速增加购买量。”在预计美联储将扩大购债规模的人当中，三分之二预计会是在2021年第一季度。当被问到若美联储大幅提高购债规模，是否会对经济产生富有意义的影响时，只有24%的人认为会。经济学家强烈反对美联储可能改变购买组合，更多偏重国债的想法。相比之下，61%的人预期美联储将最终改变购买债券的期限分布，更偏重期限较长的债券。他们目前的购债操作大致平衡分散在各个期限上。在预计美联储将调整所购债券期限的经济学家中，79%预计将在12月或明年第一季度实施。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SPXU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPY":1,".DJI":1,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":306978334,"gmtCreate":1604267335228,"gmtModify":1704955313201,"author":{"id":"3564397746531755","authorId":"3564397746531755","name":"墨池思存","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9df42be54916e8618a324eb2723690","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564397746531755","authorIdStr":"3564397746531755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/306978334","repostId":"2080960436","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
