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森田小狼
05-15
Share your opinion about this news…
Wholesale Inflation Shows Biggest Drop Since 2020, but It’s Unlikely to Last
森田小狼
03-17
Nio will never be profitable..
Option Witch | NIO's Q4 Losses Likely Widened, Will Cost Control Measures Lead to Profitability This Year?
森田小狼
2024-11-28
In every crypto bear cycle some big names get busted. MSTR may as well be the next one.
MicroStrategy: Shorts Are Playing With Fire
森田小狼
2023-10-16
I'm just curious, who on earth is taking COVID shots now?
EU Delays Approval of Novavax's Revised COVID Vaccine
森田小狼
2023-10-14
I consider myself liberal on many issues. But co-governance? No thank you. I'm not interested in living in a tribe.
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森田小狼
2022-08-09
How far will Nvidia and AMD drop if no more GPU mining?
Nvidia: Game-Changing Profit Warning
森田小狼
2021-08-17
What could be the biggest bullish drive for China tech stocks? A new leadership.
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森田小狼
2021-08-07
Anyone fancy Farady Future?
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森田小狼
2021-05-31
So neither Tesla nor SpaceX is in the list. How dumb is that.
Sorry, the original content has been removed
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/435386553815464","repostId":"1171813662","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1171813662","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"1012688067","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1747312220,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171813662?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-05-15 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wholesale Inflation Shows Biggest Drop Since 2020, but It’s Unlikely to Last","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171813662","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"US April PPI YoY +2.4% (Est. +2.5%, Prior +2.7%)","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>The numbers:</strong> Wholesale prices posted the biggest drop in April since the pandemic in 2020, but the decline in inflation appeared to be a one-off tied to falling egg and gasoline prices and a quirky category that measures certain business profit margins.</p><p>The big reversal in the producer price index was unexpected. 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The confusion sowed by the tariffs also froze global supply chains briefly as companies tried to figure out how to respond.</p><p>Economists predict higher tariffs and supply-chain chaos could increase inflation in the new few months, but it’s unclear just how much.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wholesale Inflation Shows Biggest Drop Since 2020, but It’s Unlikely to Last</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWholesale Inflation Shows Biggest Drop Since 2020, but It’s Unlikely to Last\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-15 20:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>The numbers:</strong> Wholesale prices posted the biggest drop in April since the pandemic in 2020, but the decline in inflation appeared to be a one-off tied to falling egg and gasoline prices and a quirky category that measures certain business profit margins.</p><p>The big reversal in the producer price index was unexpected. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% increase last month.</p><p>The rate of wholesale inflation in the past year, meanwhile, slowed to 2.4% from 3.4%.</p><p>Wholesale prices fell a slight 0.1% if the volatile categories of food, energy and retail trade margins are omitted. The so-called core rate is seen as a better predictor of future inflation.</p><p>The benign report on wholesale inflation follows a mild increase in consumer prices last month.</p><p>Those two inflation reports are used to help compile the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation barometer, known as the PCE. Taken together, they suggest the PCE will also show a softening in inflation in April.</p><p><strong>Big picture: </strong>The trade wars unleashed by President Trump didn’t appear to affect inflation in April since many of the tariffs weren’t put in place until mid-month or later.</p><p>The White House has since reduced tariffs, but they are still much higher than at any time since World War Two. The confusion sowed by the tariffs also froze global supply chains briefly as companies tried to figure out how to respond.</p><p>Economists predict higher tariffs and supply-chain chaos could increase inflation in the new few months, but it’s unclear just how much.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171813662","content_text":"The numbers: Wholesale prices posted the biggest drop in April since the pandemic in 2020, but the decline in inflation appeared to be a one-off tied to falling egg and gasoline prices and a quirky category that measures certain business profit margins.The big reversal in the producer price index was unexpected. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% increase last month.The rate of wholesale inflation in the past year, meanwhile, slowed to 2.4% from 3.4%.Wholesale prices fell a slight 0.1% if the volatile categories of food, energy and retail trade margins are omitted. The so-called core rate is seen as a better predictor of future inflation.The benign report on wholesale inflation follows a mild increase in consumer prices last month.Those two inflation reports are used to help compile the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation barometer, known as the PCE. Taken together, they suggest the PCE will also show a softening in inflation in April.Big picture: The trade wars unleashed by President Trump didn’t appear to affect inflation in April since many of the tariffs weren’t put in place until mid-month or later.The White House has since reduced tariffs, but they are still much higher than at any time since World War Two. The confusion sowed by the tariffs also froze global supply chains briefly as companies tried to figure out how to respond.Economists predict higher tariffs and supply-chain chaos could increase inflation in the new few months, but it’s unclear just how much.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":1,"YMmain":1,".DJI":1,".SPX":1,"ESmain":1,"NQmain":1,".IXIC":1,"TQQQ":1,"QQQ":1,"SQQQ":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":414411602534664,"gmtCreate":1742203169772,"gmtModify":1742205696570,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nio will never be profitable..","listText":"Nio will never be profitable..","text":"Nio will never be profitable..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/414411602534664","repostId":"1101567320","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101567320","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Magic option strategies for extra income.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Option Witch","id":"1016323842","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1742200663,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101567320?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-03-17 16:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Option Witch | NIO's Q4 Losses Likely Widened, Will Cost Control Measures Lead to Profitability This Year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101567320","media":"Option Witch","summary":"$NIO(NIO)$ stock is drawing attention as the EV maker prepares to announce its fourth-quarter results before the U.S. market opens on Friday, Mar 21. So far, NIO stock has gained 12% this year.Three T","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO</a> stock is drawing attention as the EV maker prepares to announce its fourth-quarter results before the U.S. market opens on Friday, Mar 21. So far, NIO stock has gained 12% this year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d0ebca0b500f7e8d68d194d8d8de498a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_4020574247\">Three Things to Watch Before Earnings Report</h2><h3 id=\"id_865508166\">NIO’s Q4 Losses Likely Widened</h3><p>According to Bloomberg’s unanimous expectations, NIO to post revenue of 20.13 billion yuan for 2024Q4; Adjusted EPS is estimated to be -2.60 yuan. Nio's 4Q operating loss could have widened vs. 3Q's 5.2 billion yuan. Vehicle deliveries were up 18% sequentially, yet average selling prices maybe 5-10% lower, as the cheaper Onvo brand accounted for 27% of unit sales. A less favorable product mix likely curbed gross margin gains despite narrower retail discounts and higher plant utilization. Higher costs from Onvo's sales channel and battery-swapping stations" development could have weighed on the bottom line.</p><p>Nio's 2025 focus would be ramping up its Onvo brand to help boost scale and cut supply-chain costs. Yet, competition remains fierce, and its first two months' sales got off to a slow start. Management's target of doubling vehicle deliveries this year looks rather aggressive, and shrinking its losses could be difficult.</p><h3 id=\"id_4162901870\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Domestic Competition Still A Strong Profitability Headwind</h3><p> it is critical to recognize that NIO operates in one of the most fiercely competitive EV markets globally: China. While China remains the largest EV market, domestic competition is heating up at an unsustainable pace. NIO is up against a relentless wave of rivals, including BYD, XPeng, and Li Auto, all of which are cutting prices and expanding production.</p><p>With 211,567 deliveries in 2024, NIO's dwarfed by BYD (4.27M), XPeng (190K), and Li Auto (500K) in China's highly competitive market, where sales dipped 12% YoY in January 2025. Moreover, global EV demand is cooling, while EU and U.S. tariffs strangle NIO's expansion in two very attractive auto markets.</p><h3 id=\"id_4231653390\">William Li Details How Nio Should Control Costs in Internal Speech</h3><p>The company's CEO William Li said Nio is aiming for single-quarter profitability in the fourth quarter and needs to become more rational in cost control, resource allocation, and priority setting.</p><p>Li gave the internal speech to all employees on March 14, detailing the core logic of the CBU mechanism. He asked employees to change the unjustifiable practices of the past as soon as possible, emphasizing efficiency and delivering business goals.</p><p>Nio has 12 CBUs, and the units that spend the most money include the research and development team's more than RMB 100 ($1.4 billion) a year, the marketing department's billions of RMB a year, and large staff costs, Li said.</p><p>"We need to answer the question of what effect these investments are actually producing, and then we need to do it by saving money where we should save money and spending money where we should spend it," he said.</p><h2 id=\"id_1408366412\">Options Strategies to Trade NIO’s Earnings</h2><p>Given NIO’s elevated implied volatility (109.36%), earnings are likely to trigger significant price swings. Below are actionable strategies based on real-time options data:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e8a243a79fd0543b5be610a3a2379ae\" alt=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" title=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1563\"/><span>Source: Tiger Trade App</span></p><h3 id=\"2-bear-put-spread\" style=\"text-align: start;\">1. Bear Put Spread</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Structure</strong>:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Buy NIO $5.00 Put</p></li><li><p>Sell NIO $4.50 Put</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NIO%2020250321%204.5%20PUT%20SELL%201%20%7C%20NIO%2020250321%205.0%20PUT%20BUY%201\" title=\"$NIO Vertical 250321 4.5P/5.0P$\" class=\"\">$NIO Vertical 250321 4.5P/5.0P$</a></p></li></ul><p><strong>Rationale</strong>:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Hedges against downside toward support ($4.45).</p></li><li><p><strong>Max Profit</strong>: $26.50</p></li><li><p><strong>Breakeven</strong>: $4.76</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/882bf72e7ae66842a3b096ce9df1e920\" alt=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" title=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1380\"/><span>Source: Tiger Trade App</span></p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_3824083422\">2. Bull Call Spread</h3><p><strong>Structure</strong>:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Buy NIO $5.00 Call</p></li><li><p>Sell NIO $5.50 Call</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NIO%2020250321%205.0%20CALL%20BUY%201%20%7C%20NIO%2020250321%205.5%20CALL%20SELL%201\" title=\"$NIO Vertical 250321 5.0C/5.5C$\" class=\"\">$NIO Vertical 250321 5.0C/5.5C$</a></p></li></ul><p><strong>Rationale</strong>:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Targets a breakout above resistance ($4.93) toward $5.50.</p></li><li><p>Net debit (cost) is minimized by selling the higher strike call.</p></li><li><p><strong>Max Profit</strong>: $36</p></li><li><p><strong>Breakeven</strong>: $5.14</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/70c83c9fc0ebff8fdbcf81b56726a15c\" alt=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" title=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1387\"/><span>Source: Tiger Trade App</span></p></li></ul></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Option Witch | NIO's Q4 Losses Likely Widened, Will Cost Control Measures Lead to Profitability This Year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOption Witch | NIO's Q4 Losses Likely Widened, Will Cost Control Measures Lead to Profitability This Year?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1016323842\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Option Witch </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-03-17 16:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO</a> stock is drawing attention as the EV maker prepares to announce its fourth-quarter results before the U.S. market opens on Friday, Mar 21. So far, NIO stock has gained 12% this year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d0ebca0b500f7e8d68d194d8d8de498a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_4020574247\">Three Things to Watch Before Earnings Report</h2><h3 id=\"id_865508166\">NIO’s Q4 Losses Likely Widened</h3><p>According to Bloomberg’s unanimous expectations, NIO to post revenue of 20.13 billion yuan for 2024Q4; Adjusted EPS is estimated to be -2.60 yuan. Nio's 4Q operating loss could have widened vs. 3Q's 5.2 billion yuan. Vehicle deliveries were up 18% sequentially, yet average selling prices maybe 5-10% lower, as the cheaper Onvo brand accounted for 27% of unit sales. A less favorable product mix likely curbed gross margin gains despite narrower retail discounts and higher plant utilization. Higher costs from Onvo's sales channel and battery-swapping stations" development could have weighed on the bottom line.</p><p>Nio's 2025 focus would be ramping up its Onvo brand to help boost scale and cut supply-chain costs. Yet, competition remains fierce, and its first two months' sales got off to a slow start. Management's target of doubling vehicle deliveries this year looks rather aggressive, and shrinking its losses could be difficult.</p><h3 id=\"id_4162901870\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Domestic Competition Still A Strong Profitability Headwind</h3><p> it is critical to recognize that NIO operates in one of the most fiercely competitive EV markets globally: China. While China remains the largest EV market, domestic competition is heating up at an unsustainable pace. NIO is up against a relentless wave of rivals, including BYD, XPeng, and Li Auto, all of which are cutting prices and expanding production.</p><p>With 211,567 deliveries in 2024, NIO's dwarfed by BYD (4.27M), XPeng (190K), and Li Auto (500K) in China's highly competitive market, where sales dipped 12% YoY in January 2025. Moreover, global EV demand is cooling, while EU and U.S. tariffs strangle NIO's expansion in two very attractive auto markets.</p><h3 id=\"id_4231653390\">William Li Details How Nio Should Control Costs in Internal Speech</h3><p>The company's CEO William Li said Nio is aiming for single-quarter profitability in the fourth quarter and needs to become more rational in cost control, resource allocation, and priority setting.</p><p>Li gave the internal speech to all employees on March 14, detailing the core logic of the CBU mechanism. He asked employees to change the unjustifiable practices of the past as soon as possible, emphasizing efficiency and delivering business goals.</p><p>Nio has 12 CBUs, and the units that spend the most money include the research and development team's more than RMB 100 ($1.4 billion) a year, the marketing department's billions of RMB a year, and large staff costs, Li said.</p><p>"We need to answer the question of what effect these investments are actually producing, and then we need to do it by saving money where we should save money and spending money where we should spend it," he said.</p><h2 id=\"id_1408366412\">Options Strategies to Trade NIO’s Earnings</h2><p>Given NIO’s elevated implied volatility (109.36%), earnings are likely to trigger significant price swings. Below are actionable strategies based on real-time options data:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e8a243a79fd0543b5be610a3a2379ae\" alt=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" title=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1563\"/><span>Source: Tiger Trade App</span></p><h3 id=\"2-bear-put-spread\" style=\"text-align: start;\">1. Bear Put Spread</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Structure</strong>:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Buy NIO $5.00 Put</p></li><li><p>Sell NIO $4.50 Put</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NIO%2020250321%204.5%20PUT%20SELL%201%20%7C%20NIO%2020250321%205.0%20PUT%20BUY%201\" title=\"$NIO Vertical 250321 4.5P/5.0P$\" class=\"\">$NIO Vertical 250321 4.5P/5.0P$</a></p></li></ul><p><strong>Rationale</strong>:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Hedges against downside toward support ($4.45).</p></li><li><p><strong>Max Profit</strong>: $26.50</p></li><li><p><strong>Breakeven</strong>: $4.76</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/882bf72e7ae66842a3b096ce9df1e920\" alt=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" title=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1380\"/><span>Source: Tiger Trade App</span></p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_3824083422\">2. Bull Call Spread</h3><p><strong>Structure</strong>:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Buy NIO $5.00 Call</p></li><li><p>Sell NIO $5.50 Call</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NIO%2020250321%205.0%20CALL%20BUY%201%20%7C%20NIO%2020250321%205.5%20CALL%20SELL%201\" title=\"$NIO Vertical 250321 5.0C/5.5C$\" class=\"\">$NIO Vertical 250321 5.0C/5.5C$</a></p></li></ul><p><strong>Rationale</strong>:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Targets a breakout above resistance ($4.93) toward $5.50.</p></li><li><p>Net debit (cost) is minimized by selling the higher strike call.</p></li><li><p><strong>Max Profit</strong>: $36</p></li><li><p><strong>Breakeven</strong>: $5.14</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/70c83c9fc0ebff8fdbcf81b56726a15c\" alt=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" title=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1387\"/><span>Source: Tiger Trade App</span></p></li></ul></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101567320","content_text":"NIO stock is drawing attention as the EV maker prepares to announce its fourth-quarter results before the U.S. market opens on Friday, Mar 21. So far, NIO stock has gained 12% this year.Three Things to Watch Before Earnings ReportNIO’s Q4 Losses Likely WidenedAccording to Bloomberg’s unanimous expectations, NIO to post revenue of 20.13 billion yuan for 2024Q4; Adjusted EPS is estimated to be -2.60 yuan. Nio's 4Q operating loss could have widened vs. 3Q's 5.2 billion yuan. Vehicle deliveries were up 18% sequentially, yet average selling prices maybe 5-10% lower, as the cheaper Onvo brand accounted for 27% of unit sales. A less favorable product mix likely curbed gross margin gains despite narrower retail discounts and higher plant utilization. Higher costs from Onvo's sales channel and battery-swapping stations\" development could have weighed on the bottom line.Nio's 2025 focus would be ramping up its Onvo brand to help boost scale and cut supply-chain costs. Yet, competition remains fierce, and its first two months' sales got off to a slow start. Management's target of doubling vehicle deliveries this year looks rather aggressive, and shrinking its losses could be difficult.Domestic Competition Still A Strong Profitability Headwind it is critical to recognize that NIO operates in one of the most fiercely competitive EV markets globally: China. While China remains the largest EV market, domestic competition is heating up at an unsustainable pace. NIO is up against a relentless wave of rivals, including BYD, XPeng, and Li Auto, all of which are cutting prices and expanding production.With 211,567 deliveries in 2024, NIO's dwarfed by BYD (4.27M), XPeng (190K), and Li Auto (500K) in China's highly competitive market, where sales dipped 12% YoY in January 2025. Moreover, global EV demand is cooling, while EU and U.S. tariffs strangle NIO's expansion in two very attractive auto markets.William Li Details How Nio Should Control Costs in Internal SpeechThe company's CEO William Li said Nio is aiming for single-quarter profitability in the fourth quarter and needs to become more rational in cost control, resource allocation, and priority setting.Li gave the internal speech to all employees on March 14, detailing the core logic of the CBU mechanism. He asked employees to change the unjustifiable practices of the past as soon as possible, emphasizing efficiency and delivering business goals.Nio has 12 CBUs, and the units that spend the most money include the research and development team's more than RMB 100 ($1.4 billion) a year, the marketing department's billions of RMB a year, and large staff costs, Li said.\"We need to answer the question of what effect these investments are actually producing, and then we need to do it by saving money where we should save money and spending money where we should spend it,\" he said.Options Strategies to Trade NIO’s EarningsGiven NIO’s elevated implied volatility (109.36%), earnings are likely to trigger significant price swings. Below are actionable strategies based on real-time options data:Source: Tiger Trade App1. Bear Put SpreadStructure:Buy NIO $5.00 PutSell NIO $4.50 Put$NIO Vertical 250321 4.5P/5.0P$Rationale:Hedges against downside toward support ($4.45).Max Profit: $26.50Breakeven: $4.76Source: Tiger Trade App2. Bull Call SpreadStructure:Buy NIO $5.00 CallSell NIO $5.50 Call$NIO Vertical 250321 5.0C/5.5C$Rationale:Targets a breakout above resistance ($4.93) toward $5.50.Net debit (cost) is minimized by selling the higher strike call.Max Profit: $36Breakeven: $5.14Source: Tiger Trade App","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO.SI":1.1,"09866":1.1,"NIO":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375915016671304,"gmtCreate":1732794210027,"gmtModify":1732799552101,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"In every crypto bear cycle some big names get busted. MSTR may as well be the next one.","listText":"In every crypto bear cycle some big names get busted. MSTR may as well be the next one.","text":"In every crypto bear cycle some big names get busted. MSTR may as well be the next one.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375915016671304","repostId":"1154834908","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1154834908","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1732789910,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154834908?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-28 18:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"MicroStrategy: Shorts Are Playing With Fire","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154834908","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryCitron Research is shorting MicroStrategy, but I believe the stock's bullish technicals make a sell rating unwarranted; I rate it a hold.Daily and weekly chart analyses show strong uptrends wit","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3071328920\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Citron Research is shorting MicroStrategy, but I believe the stock's bullish technicals make a sell rating unwarranted; I rate it a hold.</p></li><li><p>Daily and weekly chart analyses show strong uptrends with no resistance, indicating potential for further stock appreciation despite recent pullbacks.</p></li><li><p>Fundamental analysis reveals overvaluation with weak earnings and high P/S and P/B ratios, suggesting long-term risks despite bullish technical signals.</p></li><li><p>Conflicting technical and fundamental signals lead to a hold rating, cautioning shorts about potential near-term bullish momentum before fundamentals reassert.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/44a65a39741c3708a2c04ecf88c953fb\" alt=\"MicroStockHub\" title=\"MicroStockHub\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"474\"/><span>MicroStockHub</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3184934740\">Thesis</h2><p>Citron Research recently announced that they are now shorting MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ:MSTR) stock as they believe that it is detached from fundamentals. While I also believe the stock is currently overvalued, in my view, Citron Research is playing with fire by shorting the stock as the technicals are overwhelmingly bullish. In the below analysis, I determine that charts, moving averages, and most indicators show that the stock's outlook is positive and that the recent pullback is a healthy correction in the long run. Note that a monthly analysis has not been provided, as I believe the 2020 to present period is the most relevant due to MicroStrategy's implementation of its Bitcoin strategy in 2020. In the fundamentals section, I explain my evaluation that MicroStrategy stock is overvalued using the P/S and P/B ratios as well as trends in their earnings and Bitcoin investments. In the long run, the stock may revert to reflecting the fundamentals and could prove Citron Research to be right. However, before that occurs, history has shown that overvalued stocks can become much more overvalued. With highly bullish technicals, history can easily repeat itself with MicroStrategy stock. With the stock significantly overvalued, I cannot recommend buying it at these levels, but with the technicals so strong, I also believe a sell rating is unwarranted at this juncture. Therefore, I initiate coverage at a hold rating.</p><h2 id=\"id_1156402332\">Daily Analysis</h2><h3 id=\"id_2940204203\">Chart Analysis</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a97dac49f1fbfa9eb6a36d28d0dd76d3\" alt=\"Yahoo Finance\" title=\"Yahoo Finance\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>The daily chart is quite a positive one for MicroStrategy as there is no resistance above the stock. The stock is in both a slightly longer-term uptrend and a recent accelerated uptrend. It also has many support levels beneath the stock. The nearest current support would be the accelerated uptrend line that has moved past 400 and is sloping up very quickly. Its sustainability could be in question as its trajectory may be too steep. The next support level is also quite close and is in the mid-380s. In the last week or so, that level has been both resistance and support, making it a highly important zone. Moving down, the mid-320s is also support, as there is a consolidation area that found support at that price level. Although quite distant, we also have support in the mid-270s as that was an upside gap and the slower uptrend line is also nearing that level as well. Other noteworthy items include the fact that the stock has closed an upside gap that I have circled, showing that the stock has corrected as of late, and the bearish engulfing pattern at the peak a few days ago, perhaps indicating that a near term peak is in. Nonetheless, it is hard to argue against the overall bullishness of the daily chart as the stock is in strong uptrends with no resistance in sight.</p><h3 id=\"id_4239491117\">Moving Average Analysis</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6aaaeb09c88ae46f160b985f2d54c465\" alt=\"Yahoo Finance\" title=\"Yahoo Finance\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>There have been no crossovers between the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA in the past year, with the 50-day SMA staying on top the entire time, indicating sustained bullishness. The 50-day SMA has recently widened the gap significantly with the 200-day SMA, indicating accelerating bullish momentum in the stock. The stock does trade miles above the 50-day SMA, however, as the 50-day SMA's support is only at around 240. For the Bollinger Bands, the stock recently broke above the upper band, and so the current pullback is not at all surprising. As volatility expands, the upper band may continue to surge higher, creating more room for the stock to run higher without being overbought. The 20-day midline is the nearest MA support at around 320. Overall, I believe that while the stock may be a bit overbought as it is much higher than its 50-day SMA, there are really no outright bearish indications here to convince me that the near term technicals have turned negative.</p><h3 id=\"id_2938062328\">Indicator Analysis</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6ff5ea19d6bb172a266a222f7fc0bc7d\" alt=\"Yahoo Finance\" title=\"Yahoo Finance\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>The MACD crossed above the signal line earlier this month, a bullish signal. The gap between the lines has narrowed a bit, as indicated by the red histogram, showing that bullishness has been receding a bit as of late. This is not surprising given that the stock is currently in an overbought pullback. The MACD's run to one year highs also confirms the latest surge in the stock. For the RSI, it is currently at 64.39 having just exited the overbought 70 level. The RSI has held above 50 since mid-September, showing that the bulls are in clear control of the stock. Lastly, for the stochastics, the %K just recently crossed below the %D within the overbought 80 zone, a bearish signal. This again is not surprising given that the stock is undergoing an overbought correction. Note that the stochastics has remained above the 50 level since mid-September and has, in fact, found support at that level multiple times. This indicates that the bulls have been resilient in recent pullbacks, and investors should monitor this indicator closely to see if it bounces from this level again. As a whole, I would say that these indicators were mainly positive in the longer term, as the recent bearish indications are merely reflecting the stock's healthy pullback.</p><h3 id=\"id_3704937246\">Takeaway</h3><p>The short-term technical outlook for MicroStrategy is a strong one, as all three analyses indicate that the stock could run further in the near future. The chart shows that the stock remains in both a slower and an accelerated uptrend, while the MAs show accelerating bullish momentum. Lastly, for the indicators, as discussed above, there were key bullish signals and while there were some near-term bearish signals, they merely reflect the recent healthy pullback in the stock.</p><h2 id=\"id_629513900\">Weekly Analysis</h2><h3 id=\"id_3203039374\">Chart Analysis</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c358683c3cb5dc6c6c9bd0528030d9d5\" alt=\"Yahoo Finance\" title=\"Yahoo Finance\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>Note that the above chart is in a log scale to better reflect the last few years of trading history in MicroStrategy stock. The weekly chart is also a highly positive one for the stock, as it has now broken above the upper channel line and is in an accelerated uptrend. The upward channel has been in effect since early 2023 and in October this year, the stock broke above it, an indication of strength. The nearest support level would be at a gap in the low 270s. This is basically the same gap as in the daily analysis, but being on the weekly chart further adds to its significance. The next support level would be the upper channel line, and it has just moved past 210. The other two support zones are very distant due to the log scale, but I believe are still noteworthy. The lower channel line is approaching 130 and there is also a support level at 110 as that price level was major resistance in 2021 and is also at an upside gap formed earlier this year, making it a very significant area. Overall, I believe there is not much to complain about here, as there are no bearish indications to be seen.</p><h3 id=\"id_869051729\">Moving Average Analysis</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6f070a051a11b56dd0f28b36af2cb664\" alt=\"Yahoo Finance\" title=\"Yahoo Finance\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>The 13-week SMA had a bullish crossover with the 26-week SMA earlier this year where the 13-week SMA just dipped below the 26-week SMA and bounced back very quickly. The gap between the SMAs has expanded rapidly lately as the stock has surged, indicating accelerating bullish momentum. Again, the stock trades far above the SMAs, showing that it could be overbought with the 13-week SMA's support at only 237. For the Bollinger Bands, the stock remains above the upper band, showing that it is indeed still overbought in the longer term time frame. Therefore, a further pullback in the stock is definitely not out of the question and could, in fact, be healthy for the stock's long-term trend. The 20-week midline is only at around 206, but its support is nearer than the 26-week SMA. From my analysis, there is nothing wrong with MicroStrategy stock in the long term, even if it continues its recent pullback. The MAs are solidly bullish, and the stock just needs a healthy correction.</p><h3 id=\"id_3635207665\">Indicator Analysis</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7357997dbd5ee7515b536790b6544d8d\" alt=\"Yahoo Finance\" title=\"Yahoo Finance\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>The MACD had a bullish crossover with the signal line back in late September, and the stock has surged since then. The gap between the lines continues to expand as demonstrated by the green histogram and again shows accelerating bullish momentum. Like in the daily analysis, the weekly MACD's run to 5-year highs, confirms the recent surge in the stock. For the RSI, it is currently above the overbought 70 zone as it is at 80.41. There is some slight negative divergence with the RSI here, as the most recent peak fails to surpass the peak earlier this year and the one back in 2021. Since the MACD does confirm the recent run, I believe this divergence signal has less significance and should be taken with a grain of salt. Lastly, for the stochastics, the %K has crossed below %D within the overbought 80 zone in October, a bearish indication. However, both lines have generally remained in or near that zone since the bearish crossover, showing that bullishness has been sustained despite the negative signal. From my analysis, these weekly indicators are slightly more mixed in their signalling as there are both bullish and bearish indications here, but I believe the MACD's confirmation of the bull run should give investors some peace of mind.</p><h3 id=\"id_128086230\">Takeaway</h3><p>Overall, I would say that the long-term technical outlook for MicroStrategy is also positive, as the vast majority of signals are bullish. The charts show that the stock has broken out of an upward channel and is now in an accelerated uptrend, while the MAs once again show accelerating bullish momentum. For the indicators, there were mixed signals that show some uncertainty, but as discussed above, I would consider the MACD's bullish confirmation as the most important signal.</p><h2 id=\"id_3812953207\">Fundamentals & Valuation</h2><h3 id=\"id_1136376142\">Earnings</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a40d220b25454bd5145b5ca29a578107\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"537\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>MicroStrategy reported their Q3 earnings back in late October and showed weak operating results. They reported revenues of $116.1 million, down 10.3% YoY and a GAAP Net Loss of $1.72 per share. Both figures missed expectations with revenue missing by $5.38 million and EPS missing by $1.60. As you can see in the charts above, revenue is at weak levels compared to past years and EPS is on a worrying trajectory. Of course, these operational results have taken a back seat as the focus is firmly on the company's Bitcoin investments. MicroStrategy reported a 5.1% "BTC Yield" KPI in the quarter and projected a target annual BTC Yield of 6-10% from 2025 to 2027. It also announced a $21 billion equity offering at market price and an additional raising of $21 billion from fixed-income securities to fund its Bitcoin investments. As of this report, they are holding 252,220 Bitcoins, translating into a current total market value of $23.5 billion. The company has made significant purchases since then with the most recent purchases occurring last week, where they purchased an additional 55,000 Bitcoins. As of this latest Sunday, they hold 386,700 Bitcoins, translating into a current total market value of $36.1 billion. From the chart above, you can see that the company's book value has soared in the past two years along with the bull run in Bitcoin itself.</p><h3 id=\"id_372276589\">Valuation</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8930a8daabd7c2a06eaa49441ed3feeb\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"491\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>In my view, it is clear that MicroStrategy is overvalued at current levels. Earnings are now negative, and so a P/E analysis would be irrelevant. The P/S ratio is currently at 167, dropping slightly from its all-time highs of over 180 recently. The P/B ratio is currently at 24 and is at a five-year-high, excluding the 2021-2022 spike. As I said earlier, of course, the focus has shifted to Bitcoin, but the company's current market cap of $76 billion shows that its Bitcoin holdings of $36.1 billion are just a portion of the value. Therefore, the P/S should still be a relevant measure of value for the stock and so with revenues near five-year lows, I believe the current P/S ratio is unjustified. For the P/B ratio, MicroStrategy started to buy Bitcoin back in 2020 and has been increasing their holdings since then, which deserves a premium, but the P/B ratio is now at approximately 2 times the five-year average, excluding the 2021 spike. Despite their aggressive strategy, I, personally, find the P/B ratio of over 24 to be too rich. From my analysis of the P/S and P/B ratios, I believe the stock is overvalued at current levels. For MicroStrategy stock, Seeking Alpha currently has an F valuation rating for the P/S ratio and a D- rating for the P/B ratio, confirming my evaluation.</p><h2 id=\"id_1452635653\">Conclusion</h2><p>From the above analysis, it is clear that the technicals differ highly with the fundamentals on their outlooks for the stock. The vast majority of technical indications were bullish as the chart showed the stock is in accelerated uptrends while MAs show strong bullish momentum. While indicators were a bit more mixed overall, there were key signals of strength that confirm the recent surge in the stock. For the fundamentals, with revenue being very sluggish, I find the stock to be overvalued in terms of the P/S ratio and while the increasingly large Bitcoin pile deserves a P/B expansion, I believe the ratio has gone too far currently as it is at an eye-watering level of 24. I therefore conclude that the stock is significantly overvalued at current levels. While the stock could revert to reflecting its fundamentals in the long run and prove Citron Research to be right in the long run, in the near term, I believe the stock could have room to run due to the technicals being heavily in MicroStrategy's favour. With conflicting technical and fundamental signals, I initiate the stock at a hold rating, but I believe shorts are at a high risk of being burned before their predictions come true.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>MicroStrategy: Shorts Are Playing With Fire</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicroStrategy: Shorts Are Playing With Fire\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-28 18:31 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4740856-microstrategy-shorts-are-playing-fire-technical-analysis><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryCitron Research is shorting MicroStrategy, but I believe the stock's bullish technicals make a sell rating unwarranted; I rate it a hold.Daily and weekly chart analyses show strong uptrends ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4740856-microstrategy-shorts-are-playing-fire-technical-analysis\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSTR":"Strategy"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4740856-microstrategy-shorts-are-playing-fire-technical-analysis","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154834908","content_text":"SummaryCitron Research is shorting MicroStrategy, but I believe the stock's bullish technicals make a sell rating unwarranted; I rate it a hold.Daily and weekly chart analyses show strong uptrends with no resistance, indicating potential for further stock appreciation despite recent pullbacks.Fundamental analysis reveals overvaluation with weak earnings and high P/S and P/B ratios, suggesting long-term risks despite bullish technical signals.Conflicting technical and fundamental signals lead to a hold rating, cautioning shorts about potential near-term bullish momentum before fundamentals reassert.MicroStockHubThesisCitron Research recently announced that they are now shorting MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ:MSTR) stock as they believe that it is detached from fundamentals. While I also believe the stock is currently overvalued, in my view, Citron Research is playing with fire by shorting the stock as the technicals are overwhelmingly bullish. In the below analysis, I determine that charts, moving averages, and most indicators show that the stock's outlook is positive and that the recent pullback is a healthy correction in the long run. Note that a monthly analysis has not been provided, as I believe the 2020 to present period is the most relevant due to MicroStrategy's implementation of its Bitcoin strategy in 2020. In the fundamentals section, I explain my evaluation that MicroStrategy stock is overvalued using the P/S and P/B ratios as well as trends in their earnings and Bitcoin investments. In the long run, the stock may revert to reflecting the fundamentals and could prove Citron Research to be right. However, before that occurs, history has shown that overvalued stocks can become much more overvalued. With highly bullish technicals, history can easily repeat itself with MicroStrategy stock. With the stock significantly overvalued, I cannot recommend buying it at these levels, but with the technicals so strong, I also believe a sell rating is unwarranted at this juncture. Therefore, I initiate coverage at a hold rating.Daily AnalysisChart AnalysisYahoo FinanceThe daily chart is quite a positive one for MicroStrategy as there is no resistance above the stock. The stock is in both a slightly longer-term uptrend and a recent accelerated uptrend. It also has many support levels beneath the stock. The nearest current support would be the accelerated uptrend line that has moved past 400 and is sloping up very quickly. Its sustainability could be in question as its trajectory may be too steep. The next support level is also quite close and is in the mid-380s. In the last week or so, that level has been both resistance and support, making it a highly important zone. Moving down, the mid-320s is also support, as there is a consolidation area that found support at that price level. Although quite distant, we also have support in the mid-270s as that was an upside gap and the slower uptrend line is also nearing that level as well. Other noteworthy items include the fact that the stock has closed an upside gap that I have circled, showing that the stock has corrected as of late, and the bearish engulfing pattern at the peak a few days ago, perhaps indicating that a near term peak is in. Nonetheless, it is hard to argue against the overall bullishness of the daily chart as the stock is in strong uptrends with no resistance in sight.Moving Average AnalysisYahoo FinanceThere have been no crossovers between the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA in the past year, with the 50-day SMA staying on top the entire time, indicating sustained bullishness. The 50-day SMA has recently widened the gap significantly with the 200-day SMA, indicating accelerating bullish momentum in the stock. The stock does trade miles above the 50-day SMA, however, as the 50-day SMA's support is only at around 240. For the Bollinger Bands, the stock recently broke above the upper band, and so the current pullback is not at all surprising. As volatility expands, the upper band may continue to surge higher, creating more room for the stock to run higher without being overbought. The 20-day midline is the nearest MA support at around 320. Overall, I believe that while the stock may be a bit overbought as it is much higher than its 50-day SMA, there are really no outright bearish indications here to convince me that the near term technicals have turned negative.Indicator AnalysisYahoo FinanceThe MACD crossed above the signal line earlier this month, a bullish signal. The gap between the lines has narrowed a bit, as indicated by the red histogram, showing that bullishness has been receding a bit as of late. This is not surprising given that the stock is currently in an overbought pullback. The MACD's run to one year highs also confirms the latest surge in the stock. For the RSI, it is currently at 64.39 having just exited the overbought 70 level. The RSI has held above 50 since mid-September, showing that the bulls are in clear control of the stock. Lastly, for the stochastics, the %K just recently crossed below the %D within the overbought 80 zone, a bearish signal. This again is not surprising given that the stock is undergoing an overbought correction. Note that the stochastics has remained above the 50 level since mid-September and has, in fact, found support at that level multiple times. This indicates that the bulls have been resilient in recent pullbacks, and investors should monitor this indicator closely to see if it bounces from this level again. As a whole, I would say that these indicators were mainly positive in the longer term, as the recent bearish indications are merely reflecting the stock's healthy pullback.TakeawayThe short-term technical outlook for MicroStrategy is a strong one, as all three analyses indicate that the stock could run further in the near future. The chart shows that the stock remains in both a slower and an accelerated uptrend, while the MAs show accelerating bullish momentum. Lastly, for the indicators, as discussed above, there were key bullish signals and while there were some near-term bearish signals, they merely reflect the recent healthy pullback in the stock.Weekly AnalysisChart AnalysisYahoo FinanceNote that the above chart is in a log scale to better reflect the last few years of trading history in MicroStrategy stock. The weekly chart is also a highly positive one for the stock, as it has now broken above the upper channel line and is in an accelerated uptrend. The upward channel has been in effect since early 2023 and in October this year, the stock broke above it, an indication of strength. The nearest support level would be at a gap in the low 270s. This is basically the same gap as in the daily analysis, but being on the weekly chart further adds to its significance. The next support level would be the upper channel line, and it has just moved past 210. The other two support zones are very distant due to the log scale, but I believe are still noteworthy. The lower channel line is approaching 130 and there is also a support level at 110 as that price level was major resistance in 2021 and is also at an upside gap formed earlier this year, making it a very significant area. Overall, I believe there is not much to complain about here, as there are no bearish indications to be seen.Moving Average AnalysisYahoo FinanceThe 13-week SMA had a bullish crossover with the 26-week SMA earlier this year where the 13-week SMA just dipped below the 26-week SMA and bounced back very quickly. The gap between the SMAs has expanded rapidly lately as the stock has surged, indicating accelerating bullish momentum. Again, the stock trades far above the SMAs, showing that it could be overbought with the 13-week SMA's support at only 237. For the Bollinger Bands, the stock remains above the upper band, showing that it is indeed still overbought in the longer term time frame. Therefore, a further pullback in the stock is definitely not out of the question and could, in fact, be healthy for the stock's long-term trend. The 20-week midline is only at around 206, but its support is nearer than the 26-week SMA. From my analysis, there is nothing wrong with MicroStrategy stock in the long term, even if it continues its recent pullback. The MAs are solidly bullish, and the stock just needs a healthy correction.Indicator AnalysisYahoo FinanceThe MACD had a bullish crossover with the signal line back in late September, and the stock has surged since then. The gap between the lines continues to expand as demonstrated by the green histogram and again shows accelerating bullish momentum. Like in the daily analysis, the weekly MACD's run to 5-year highs, confirms the recent surge in the stock. For the RSI, it is currently above the overbought 70 zone as it is at 80.41. There is some slight negative divergence with the RSI here, as the most recent peak fails to surpass the peak earlier this year and the one back in 2021. Since the MACD does confirm the recent run, I believe this divergence signal has less significance and should be taken with a grain of salt. Lastly, for the stochastics, the %K has crossed below %D within the overbought 80 zone in October, a bearish indication. However, both lines have generally remained in or near that zone since the bearish crossover, showing that bullishness has been sustained despite the negative signal. From my analysis, these weekly indicators are slightly more mixed in their signalling as there are both bullish and bearish indications here, but I believe the MACD's confirmation of the bull run should give investors some peace of mind.TakeawayOverall, I would say that the long-term technical outlook for MicroStrategy is also positive, as the vast majority of signals are bullish. The charts show that the stock has broken out of an upward channel and is now in an accelerated uptrend, while the MAs once again show accelerating bullish momentum. For the indicators, there were mixed signals that show some uncertainty, but as discussed above, I would consider the MACD's bullish confirmation as the most important signal.Fundamentals & ValuationEarningsData by YChartsMicroStrategy reported their Q3 earnings back in late October and showed weak operating results. They reported revenues of $116.1 million, down 10.3% YoY and a GAAP Net Loss of $1.72 per share. Both figures missed expectations with revenue missing by $5.38 million and EPS missing by $1.60. As you can see in the charts above, revenue is at weak levels compared to past years and EPS is on a worrying trajectory. Of course, these operational results have taken a back seat as the focus is firmly on the company's Bitcoin investments. MicroStrategy reported a 5.1% \"BTC Yield\" KPI in the quarter and projected a target annual BTC Yield of 6-10% from 2025 to 2027. It also announced a $21 billion equity offering at market price and an additional raising of $21 billion from fixed-income securities to fund its Bitcoin investments. As of this report, they are holding 252,220 Bitcoins, translating into a current total market value of $23.5 billion. The company has made significant purchases since then with the most recent purchases occurring last week, where they purchased an additional 55,000 Bitcoins. As of this latest Sunday, they hold 386,700 Bitcoins, translating into a current total market value of $36.1 billion. From the chart above, you can see that the company's book value has soared in the past two years along with the bull run in Bitcoin itself.ValuationData by YChartsIn my view, it is clear that MicroStrategy is overvalued at current levels. Earnings are now negative, and so a P/E analysis would be irrelevant. The P/S ratio is currently at 167, dropping slightly from its all-time highs of over 180 recently. The P/B ratio is currently at 24 and is at a five-year-high, excluding the 2021-2022 spike. As I said earlier, of course, the focus has shifted to Bitcoin, but the company's current market cap of $76 billion shows that its Bitcoin holdings of $36.1 billion are just a portion of the value. Therefore, the P/S should still be a relevant measure of value for the stock and so with revenues near five-year lows, I believe the current P/S ratio is unjustified. For the P/B ratio, MicroStrategy started to buy Bitcoin back in 2020 and has been increasing their holdings since then, which deserves a premium, but the P/B ratio is now at approximately 2 times the five-year average, excluding the 2021 spike. Despite their aggressive strategy, I, personally, find the P/B ratio of over 24 to be too rich. From my analysis of the P/S and P/B ratios, I believe the stock is overvalued at current levels. For MicroStrategy stock, Seeking Alpha currently has an F valuation rating for the P/S ratio and a D- rating for the P/B ratio, confirming my evaluation.ConclusionFrom the above analysis, it is clear that the technicals differ highly with the fundamentals on their outlooks for the stock. The vast majority of technical indications were bullish as the chart showed the stock is in accelerated uptrends while MAs show strong bullish momentum. While indicators were a bit more mixed overall, there were key signals of strength that confirm the recent surge in the stock. For the fundamentals, with revenue being very sluggish, I find the stock to be overvalued in terms of the P/S ratio and while the increasingly large Bitcoin pile deserves a P/B expansion, I believe the ratio has gone too far currently as it is at an eye-watering level of 24. I therefore conclude that the stock is significantly overvalued at current levels. While the stock could revert to reflecting its fundamentals in the long run and prove Citron Research to be right in the long run, in the near term, I believe the stock could have room to run due to the technicals being heavily in MicroStrategy's favour. With conflicting technical and fundamental signals, I initiate the stock at a hold rating, but I believe shorts are at a high risk of being burned before their predictions come true.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSTR":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":231109373735184,"gmtCreate":1697449111547,"gmtModify":1697449116123,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I'm just curious, who on earth is taking COVID shots now?","listText":"I'm just curious, who on earth is taking COVID shots now?","text":"I'm just curious, who on earth is taking COVID shots now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/231109373735184","repostId":"2375189549","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2375189549","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1697428317,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2375189549?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-10-16 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EU Delays Approval of Novavax's Revised COVID Vaccine","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2375189549","media":"Reuters","summary":"European Union regulators have delayed the decision to give approval for Novavax's variant-tailored COVID-19 vaccine, the Financial Times said on Sunday.The European Medicines Agency , which was due to approve the updated vaccine last Friday has requested more information from the company, the FT report added.\"As part of the ongoing review process, [the EMA] has additional questions, which we are answering expeditiously,\" Novavax told the Financial Times.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>European Union regulators have delayed the decision to give approval for Novavax's variant-tailored COVID-19 vaccine, the Financial Times said on Sunday.</p><p>The European Medicines Agency (EMA), which was due to approve the updated vaccine last Friday has requested more information from the company, the FT report added.</p><p>"As part of the ongoing review process, [the EMA] has additional questions, which we are answering expeditiously," Novavax told the Financial Times.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EU Delays Approval of Novavax's Revised COVID Vaccine</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEU Delays Approval of Novavax's Revised COVID Vaccine\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-10-16 11:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>European Union regulators have delayed the decision to give approval for Novavax's variant-tailored COVID-19 vaccine, the Financial Times said on Sunday.</p><p>The European Medicines Agency (EMA), which was due to approve the updated vaccine last Friday has requested more information from the company, the FT report added.</p><p>"As part of the ongoing review process, [the EMA] has additional questions, which we are answering expeditiously," Novavax told the Financial Times.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2375189549","content_text":"European Union regulators have delayed the decision to give approval for Novavax's variant-tailored COVID-19 vaccine, the Financial Times said on Sunday.The European Medicines Agency (EMA), which was due to approve the updated vaccine last Friday has requested more information from the company, the FT report added.\"As part of the ongoing review process, [the EMA] has additional questions, which we are answering expeditiously,\" Novavax told the Financial Times.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":230347708096792,"gmtCreate":1697279164780,"gmtModify":1697279169181,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I consider myself liberal on many issues. But co-governance? No thank you. I'm not interested in living in a tribe.","listText":"I consider myself liberal on many issues. But co-governance? No thank you. I'm not interested in living in a tribe.","text":"I consider myself liberal on many issues. But co-governance? No thank you. I'm not interested in living in a tribe.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/230347708096792","repostId":"2375691972","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9904684716,"gmtCreate":1660035655438,"gmtModify":1703477213098,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How far will Nvidia and AMD drop if no more GPU mining?","listText":"How far will Nvidia and AMD drop if no more GPU mining?","text":"How far will Nvidia and AMD drop if no more GPU mining?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9904684716","repostId":"1160329018","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160329018","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660047082,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160329018?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-09 20:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Game-Changing Profit Warning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160329018","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia announced preliminary results for Q2 2022.The company disappointed against both manage","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Nvidia announced preliminary results for Q2 2022.</li><li>The company disappointed against both management’s previous guidance and analyst consensus estimates.</li><li>I view the press release as a warning signal, that Nvidia is a cyclical company - like the entire semi industry.</li><li>In my opinion, Nvidia stock is overvalued - trading at almost x10 sales.</li><li>I advise to stay on the sidelines.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>On August 8th, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)announced preliminary results for Q2 2022 and the company disappointed against both management's previous guidance and analyst consensus estimates. In other words, Nvidia's press release was a profit warning. How should investors think about this? Should the information be ignored, appreciated as a buying opportunity or accepted as a warning signal? I tend towards the latter. In my opinion, Nvidia stock is overhyped and overvalued - trading at almost x10 sales. And as long as the company is stumbling, like the Q2 results indicate, I would not pay this enormous valuation premium.</p><p>Nvidia stock is down about 40% YTD, versus a loss of about 15% for the SPX.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8758b98543efdb11ca36a96617cc111c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>The Profit Warning</b></p><p>Nvidia's preliminary results were quite bad. As compared to the company's previous outlook of $8.10 billion, Nvidia now announced revenues of $6.70 billion. Notably, this represents a 19% decline quarter-over-quarter. While Nvidia did not provide income numbers, the company announced GAAP gross margin of 43.7%, versus 65.1% guided. GAAP operating expenses remained roughly in line with guidance at $2.46 billion. Nvidia's miss was largely driven by a strong weakness in the company's gaming exposure, which accounts for about 30% of total revenues. For Q2 2022, Gaming revenue was $2.04 billion, which is a 44% quarter-over-quarter decrease.</p><p>However, also the other segments disappointed, including Data Center, which is more than 50% of revenues. Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA commented:</p><blockquote><i>Data Center revenue, though a record, was somewhat short of the company's expectations, as it was impacted by supply chain disruptions.</i></blockquote><p>Investors should also note that the company highlighted $1.32 billion of charges, which were associated to inventory adjustments and related reserves as the company needed to revise expectations of future demand.</p><blockquote><i>Our gaming product sell-through projections declined significantly as the quarter progressed. As we expect the macroeconomic conditions affecting sell-through to continue, we took actions with our Gaming partners to adjust channel prices and inventory.</i></blockquote><p>Given these results, investors are craving for more insights: How is Q3 2022; what is the guidance for 2023; is Nvidia planning lay-offs like other tech companies? But unfortunately, management has not scheduled any analyst call before August 24.</p><p><b>Very Expensive Stock</b></p><p>Reflecting on Nvidia's Q2 results, I believe valuation will become more and more a concern to investors. Notably, Nvidia trades at a one-year forward P/E of x46, which is a 100% premium to the sector. The respective EV/EBITDA multiple is x34, versus x13 for the sector (170% premium). Please note that I am not cherry-picking here. Below is a comparative table of various multiples, which all indicate a considerable, approximately 100%, overvaluation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6ae5e33bc204aba73e6f76ad315f5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>In the recent past, let's say during the bubble, many investors have argued that Nvidia's enormous valuation and industry premium is justified, given the company's exposure to secular growth trends such as gaming, AI, the metaverse.</p><p>Investors arguably made the mistake to forget that semiconductor companies remain highly cyclical. And now, as the market is pressured by inflation, rising interest rates, low consumer confidence and international trade tensions, to name just a few, Nvidia's business starts to feel the downturn. That said, if investors support my thesis that semi companies, including Nvidia, are cyclical, they likely also accept that more pain (recession) is yet to come.</p><p><b>Implications and Recommendation</b></p><p>Nvidia is no doubt a great company. And I love a strong management that is led by a visionary founder-CEO such as Jensen Huang, who sustains the view that:</p><blockquote><i>NVIDIA has excellent products and position driving large and growing markets. As we navigate these challenges, we remain focused on the once-in-a-generation opportunity to reinvent computing for the era of AI</i></blockquote><p>However, Nvidia's valuation is way too expensive to allow for a margin of safety. Moreover, the semiconductor business is vulnerable to a global economic slowdown, which I believe many investors still have not priced sufficiently, as some market participants sustain the view that companies such as Nvidia are driven by secular, not cyclical growth levers. But I disagree. Following the Q2 profit warning, Nvidia shares lost as much as 10%. This is a game-changing warning signal. And, accordingly, I advise to stay on the sidelines.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Game-Changing Profit Warning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Game-Changing Profit Warning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-09 20:11 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531583-nvidia-game-changing-profit-warning?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A13><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia announced preliminary results for Q2 2022.The company disappointed against both management’s previous guidance and analyst consensus estimates.I view the press release as a warning ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531583-nvidia-game-changing-profit-warning?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A13\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531583-nvidia-game-changing-profit-warning?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A13","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160329018","content_text":"SummaryNvidia announced preliminary results for Q2 2022.The company disappointed against both management’s previous guidance and analyst consensus estimates.I view the press release as a warning signal, that Nvidia is a cyclical company - like the entire semi industry.In my opinion, Nvidia stock is overvalued - trading at almost x10 sales.I advise to stay on the sidelines.ThesisOn August 8th, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)announced preliminary results for Q2 2022 and the company disappointed against both management's previous guidance and analyst consensus estimates. In other words, Nvidia's press release was a profit warning. How should investors think about this? Should the information be ignored, appreciated as a buying opportunity or accepted as a warning signal? I tend towards the latter. In my opinion, Nvidia stock is overhyped and overvalued - trading at almost x10 sales. And as long as the company is stumbling, like the Q2 results indicate, I would not pay this enormous valuation premium.Nvidia stock is down about 40% YTD, versus a loss of about 15% for the SPX.Seeking AlphaThe Profit WarningNvidia's preliminary results were quite bad. As compared to the company's previous outlook of $8.10 billion, Nvidia now announced revenues of $6.70 billion. Notably, this represents a 19% decline quarter-over-quarter. While Nvidia did not provide income numbers, the company announced GAAP gross margin of 43.7%, versus 65.1% guided. GAAP operating expenses remained roughly in line with guidance at $2.46 billion. Nvidia's miss was largely driven by a strong weakness in the company's gaming exposure, which accounts for about 30% of total revenues. For Q2 2022, Gaming revenue was $2.04 billion, which is a 44% quarter-over-quarter decrease.However, also the other segments disappointed, including Data Center, which is more than 50% of revenues. Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA commented:Data Center revenue, though a record, was somewhat short of the company's expectations, as it was impacted by supply chain disruptions.Investors should also note that the company highlighted $1.32 billion of charges, which were associated to inventory adjustments and related reserves as the company needed to revise expectations of future demand.Our gaming product sell-through projections declined significantly as the quarter progressed. As we expect the macroeconomic conditions affecting sell-through to continue, we took actions with our Gaming partners to adjust channel prices and inventory.Given these results, investors are craving for more insights: How is Q3 2022; what is the guidance for 2023; is Nvidia planning lay-offs like other tech companies? But unfortunately, management has not scheduled any analyst call before August 24.Very Expensive StockReflecting on Nvidia's Q2 results, I believe valuation will become more and more a concern to investors. Notably, Nvidia trades at a one-year forward P/E of x46, which is a 100% premium to the sector. The respective EV/EBITDA multiple is x34, versus x13 for the sector (170% premium). Please note that I am not cherry-picking here. Below is a comparative table of various multiples, which all indicate a considerable, approximately 100%, overvaluation.Seeking AlphaIn the recent past, let's say during the bubble, many investors have argued that Nvidia's enormous valuation and industry premium is justified, given the company's exposure to secular growth trends such as gaming, AI, the metaverse.Investors arguably made the mistake to forget that semiconductor companies remain highly cyclical. And now, as the market is pressured by inflation, rising interest rates, low consumer confidence and international trade tensions, to name just a few, Nvidia's business starts to feel the downturn. That said, if investors support my thesis that semi companies, including Nvidia, are cyclical, they likely also accept that more pain (recession) is yet to come.Implications and RecommendationNvidia is no doubt a great company. And I love a strong management that is led by a visionary founder-CEO such as Jensen Huang, who sustains the view that:NVIDIA has excellent products and position driving large and growing markets. As we navigate these challenges, we remain focused on the once-in-a-generation opportunity to reinvent computing for the era of AIHowever, Nvidia's valuation is way too expensive to allow for a margin of safety. Moreover, the semiconductor business is vulnerable to a global economic slowdown, which I believe many investors still have not priced sufficiently, as some market participants sustain the view that companies such as Nvidia are driven by secular, not cyclical growth levers. But I disagree. Following the Q2 profit warning, Nvidia shares lost as much as 10%. This is a game-changing warning signal. And, accordingly, I advise to stay on the sidelines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839709350,"gmtCreate":1629178498370,"gmtModify":1676529955297,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What could be the biggest bullish drive for China tech stocks? A new leadership.","listText":"What could be the biggest bullish drive for China tech stocks? A new leadership.","text":"What could be the biggest bullish drive for China tech stocks? A new leadership.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839709350","repostId":"2159222279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891028173,"gmtCreate":1628309109392,"gmtModify":1703504919166,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Anyone fancy Farady Future?","listText":"Anyone fancy Farady Future?","text":"Anyone fancy Farady Future?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891028173","repostId":"1143051031","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110887206,"gmtCreate":1622439034405,"gmtModify":1704184450238,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So neither Tesla nor SpaceX is in the list. How dumb is that.","listText":"So neither Tesla nor SpaceX is in the list. How dumb is that.","text":"So neither Tesla nor SpaceX is in the list. How dumb is that.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110887206","repostId":"2139487733","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":414411602534664,"gmtCreate":1742203169772,"gmtModify":1742205696570,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nio will never be profitable..","listText":"Nio will never be profitable..","text":"Nio will never be profitable..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/414411602534664","repostId":"1101567320","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101567320","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Magic option strategies for extra income.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Option Witch","id":"1016323842","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1742200663,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101567320?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-03-17 16:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Option Witch | NIO's Q4 Losses Likely Widened, Will Cost Control Measures Lead to Profitability This Year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101567320","media":"Option Witch","summary":"$NIO(NIO)$ stock is drawing attention as the EV maker prepares to announce its fourth-quarter results before the U.S. market opens on Friday, Mar 21. So far, NIO stock has gained 12% this year.Three T","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO</a> stock is drawing attention as the EV maker prepares to announce its fourth-quarter results before the U.S. market opens on Friday, Mar 21. So far, NIO stock has gained 12% this year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d0ebca0b500f7e8d68d194d8d8de498a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_4020574247\">Three Things to Watch Before Earnings Report</h2><h3 id=\"id_865508166\">NIO’s Q4 Losses Likely Widened</h3><p>According to Bloomberg’s unanimous expectations, NIO to post revenue of 20.13 billion yuan for 2024Q4; Adjusted EPS is estimated to be -2.60 yuan. Nio's 4Q operating loss could have widened vs. 3Q's 5.2 billion yuan. Vehicle deliveries were up 18% sequentially, yet average selling prices maybe 5-10% lower, as the cheaper Onvo brand accounted for 27% of unit sales. A less favorable product mix likely curbed gross margin gains despite narrower retail discounts and higher plant utilization. Higher costs from Onvo's sales channel and battery-swapping stations" development could have weighed on the bottom line.</p><p>Nio's 2025 focus would be ramping up its Onvo brand to help boost scale and cut supply-chain costs. Yet, competition remains fierce, and its first two months' sales got off to a slow start. Management's target of doubling vehicle deliveries this year looks rather aggressive, and shrinking its losses could be difficult.</p><h3 id=\"id_4162901870\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Domestic Competition Still A Strong Profitability Headwind</h3><p> it is critical to recognize that NIO operates in one of the most fiercely competitive EV markets globally: China. While China remains the largest EV market, domestic competition is heating up at an unsustainable pace. NIO is up against a relentless wave of rivals, including BYD, XPeng, and Li Auto, all of which are cutting prices and expanding production.</p><p>With 211,567 deliveries in 2024, NIO's dwarfed by BYD (4.27M), XPeng (190K), and Li Auto (500K) in China's highly competitive market, where sales dipped 12% YoY in January 2025. Moreover, global EV demand is cooling, while EU and U.S. tariffs strangle NIO's expansion in two very attractive auto markets.</p><h3 id=\"id_4231653390\">William Li Details How Nio Should Control Costs in Internal Speech</h3><p>The company's CEO William Li said Nio is aiming for single-quarter profitability in the fourth quarter and needs to become more rational in cost control, resource allocation, and priority setting.</p><p>Li gave the internal speech to all employees on March 14, detailing the core logic of the CBU mechanism. He asked employees to change the unjustifiable practices of the past as soon as possible, emphasizing efficiency and delivering business goals.</p><p>Nio has 12 CBUs, and the units that spend the most money include the research and development team's more than RMB 100 ($1.4 billion) a year, the marketing department's billions of RMB a year, and large staff costs, Li said.</p><p>"We need to answer the question of what effect these investments are actually producing, and then we need to do it by saving money where we should save money and spending money where we should spend it," he said.</p><h2 id=\"id_1408366412\">Options Strategies to Trade NIO’s Earnings</h2><p>Given NIO’s elevated implied volatility (109.36%), earnings are likely to trigger significant price swings. Below are actionable strategies based on real-time options data:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e8a243a79fd0543b5be610a3a2379ae\" alt=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" title=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1563\"/><span>Source: Tiger Trade App</span></p><h3 id=\"2-bear-put-spread\" style=\"text-align: start;\">1. Bear Put Spread</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Structure</strong>:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Buy NIO $5.00 Put</p></li><li><p>Sell NIO $4.50 Put</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NIO%2020250321%204.5%20PUT%20SELL%201%20%7C%20NIO%2020250321%205.0%20PUT%20BUY%201\" title=\"$NIO Vertical 250321 4.5P/5.0P$\" class=\"\">$NIO Vertical 250321 4.5P/5.0P$</a></p></li></ul><p><strong>Rationale</strong>:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Hedges against downside toward support ($4.45).</p></li><li><p><strong>Max Profit</strong>: $26.50</p></li><li><p><strong>Breakeven</strong>: $4.76</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/882bf72e7ae66842a3b096ce9df1e920\" alt=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" title=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1380\"/><span>Source: Tiger Trade App</span></p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_3824083422\">2. Bull Call Spread</h3><p><strong>Structure</strong>:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Buy NIO $5.00 Call</p></li><li><p>Sell NIO $5.50 Call</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NIO%2020250321%205.0%20CALL%20BUY%201%20%7C%20NIO%2020250321%205.5%20CALL%20SELL%201\" title=\"$NIO Vertical 250321 5.0C/5.5C$\" class=\"\">$NIO Vertical 250321 5.0C/5.5C$</a></p></li></ul><p><strong>Rationale</strong>:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Targets a breakout above resistance ($4.93) toward $5.50.</p></li><li><p>Net debit (cost) is minimized by selling the higher strike call.</p></li><li><p><strong>Max Profit</strong>: $36</p></li><li><p><strong>Breakeven</strong>: $5.14</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/70c83c9fc0ebff8fdbcf81b56726a15c\" alt=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" title=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1387\"/><span>Source: Tiger Trade App</span></p></li></ul></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Option Witch | NIO's Q4 Losses Likely Widened, Will Cost Control Measures Lead to Profitability This Year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOption Witch | NIO's Q4 Losses Likely Widened, Will Cost Control Measures Lead to Profitability This Year?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1016323842\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Option Witch </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-03-17 16:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO</a> stock is drawing attention as the EV maker prepares to announce its fourth-quarter results before the U.S. market opens on Friday, Mar 21. So far, NIO stock has gained 12% this year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d0ebca0b500f7e8d68d194d8d8de498a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_4020574247\">Three Things to Watch Before Earnings Report</h2><h3 id=\"id_865508166\">NIO’s Q4 Losses Likely Widened</h3><p>According to Bloomberg’s unanimous expectations, NIO to post revenue of 20.13 billion yuan for 2024Q4; Adjusted EPS is estimated to be -2.60 yuan. Nio's 4Q operating loss could have widened vs. 3Q's 5.2 billion yuan. Vehicle deliveries were up 18% sequentially, yet average selling prices maybe 5-10% lower, as the cheaper Onvo brand accounted for 27% of unit sales. A less favorable product mix likely curbed gross margin gains despite narrower retail discounts and higher plant utilization. Higher costs from Onvo's sales channel and battery-swapping stations" development could have weighed on the bottom line.</p><p>Nio's 2025 focus would be ramping up its Onvo brand to help boost scale and cut supply-chain costs. Yet, competition remains fierce, and its first two months' sales got off to a slow start. Management's target of doubling vehicle deliveries this year looks rather aggressive, and shrinking its losses could be difficult.</p><h3 id=\"id_4162901870\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Domestic Competition Still A Strong Profitability Headwind</h3><p> it is critical to recognize that NIO operates in one of the most fiercely competitive EV markets globally: China. While China remains the largest EV market, domestic competition is heating up at an unsustainable pace. NIO is up against a relentless wave of rivals, including BYD, XPeng, and Li Auto, all of which are cutting prices and expanding production.</p><p>With 211,567 deliveries in 2024, NIO's dwarfed by BYD (4.27M), XPeng (190K), and Li Auto (500K) in China's highly competitive market, where sales dipped 12% YoY in January 2025. Moreover, global EV demand is cooling, while EU and U.S. tariffs strangle NIO's expansion in two very attractive auto markets.</p><h3 id=\"id_4231653390\">William Li Details How Nio Should Control Costs in Internal Speech</h3><p>The company's CEO William Li said Nio is aiming for single-quarter profitability in the fourth quarter and needs to become more rational in cost control, resource allocation, and priority setting.</p><p>Li gave the internal speech to all employees on March 14, detailing the core logic of the CBU mechanism. He asked employees to change the unjustifiable practices of the past as soon as possible, emphasizing efficiency and delivering business goals.</p><p>Nio has 12 CBUs, and the units that spend the most money include the research and development team's more than RMB 100 ($1.4 billion) a year, the marketing department's billions of RMB a year, and large staff costs, Li said.</p><p>"We need to answer the question of what effect these investments are actually producing, and then we need to do it by saving money where we should save money and spending money where we should spend it," he said.</p><h2 id=\"id_1408366412\">Options Strategies to Trade NIO’s Earnings</h2><p>Given NIO’s elevated implied volatility (109.36%), earnings are likely to trigger significant price swings. Below are actionable strategies based on real-time options data:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e8a243a79fd0543b5be610a3a2379ae\" alt=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" title=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1563\"/><span>Source: Tiger Trade App</span></p><h3 id=\"2-bear-put-spread\" style=\"text-align: start;\">1. Bear Put Spread</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Structure</strong>:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Buy NIO $5.00 Put</p></li><li><p>Sell NIO $4.50 Put</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NIO%2020250321%204.5%20PUT%20SELL%201%20%7C%20NIO%2020250321%205.0%20PUT%20BUY%201\" title=\"$NIO Vertical 250321 4.5P/5.0P$\" class=\"\">$NIO Vertical 250321 4.5P/5.0P$</a></p></li></ul><p><strong>Rationale</strong>:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Hedges against downside toward support ($4.45).</p></li><li><p><strong>Max Profit</strong>: $26.50</p></li><li><p><strong>Breakeven</strong>: $4.76</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/882bf72e7ae66842a3b096ce9df1e920\" alt=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" title=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1380\"/><span>Source: Tiger Trade App</span></p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_3824083422\">2. Bull Call Spread</h3><p><strong>Structure</strong>:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Buy NIO $5.00 Call</p></li><li><p>Sell NIO $5.50 Call</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/NIO%2020250321%205.0%20CALL%20BUY%201%20%7C%20NIO%2020250321%205.5%20CALL%20SELL%201\" title=\"$NIO Vertical 250321 5.0C/5.5C$\" class=\"\">$NIO Vertical 250321 5.0C/5.5C$</a></p></li></ul><p><strong>Rationale</strong>:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Targets a breakout above resistance ($4.93) toward $5.50.</p></li><li><p>Net debit (cost) is minimized by selling the higher strike call.</p></li><li><p><strong>Max Profit</strong>: $36</p></li><li><p><strong>Breakeven</strong>: $5.14</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/70c83c9fc0ebff8fdbcf81b56726a15c\" alt=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" title=\"Source: Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1387\"/><span>Source: Tiger Trade App</span></p></li></ul></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101567320","content_text":"NIO stock is drawing attention as the EV maker prepares to announce its fourth-quarter results before the U.S. market opens on Friday, Mar 21. So far, NIO stock has gained 12% this year.Three Things to Watch Before Earnings ReportNIO’s Q4 Losses Likely WidenedAccording to Bloomberg’s unanimous expectations, NIO to post revenue of 20.13 billion yuan for 2024Q4; Adjusted EPS is estimated to be -2.60 yuan. Nio's 4Q operating loss could have widened vs. 3Q's 5.2 billion yuan. Vehicle deliveries were up 18% sequentially, yet average selling prices maybe 5-10% lower, as the cheaper Onvo brand accounted for 27% of unit sales. A less favorable product mix likely curbed gross margin gains despite narrower retail discounts and higher plant utilization. Higher costs from Onvo's sales channel and battery-swapping stations\" development could have weighed on the bottom line.Nio's 2025 focus would be ramping up its Onvo brand to help boost scale and cut supply-chain costs. Yet, competition remains fierce, and its first two months' sales got off to a slow start. Management's target of doubling vehicle deliveries this year looks rather aggressive, and shrinking its losses could be difficult.Domestic Competition Still A Strong Profitability Headwind it is critical to recognize that NIO operates in one of the most fiercely competitive EV markets globally: China. While China remains the largest EV market, domestic competition is heating up at an unsustainable pace. NIO is up against a relentless wave of rivals, including BYD, XPeng, and Li Auto, all of which are cutting prices and expanding production.With 211,567 deliveries in 2024, NIO's dwarfed by BYD (4.27M), XPeng (190K), and Li Auto (500K) in China's highly competitive market, where sales dipped 12% YoY in January 2025. Moreover, global EV demand is cooling, while EU and U.S. tariffs strangle NIO's expansion in two very attractive auto markets.William Li Details How Nio Should Control Costs in Internal SpeechThe company's CEO William Li said Nio is aiming for single-quarter profitability in the fourth quarter and needs to become more rational in cost control, resource allocation, and priority setting.Li gave the internal speech to all employees on March 14, detailing the core logic of the CBU mechanism. He asked employees to change the unjustifiable practices of the past as soon as possible, emphasizing efficiency and delivering business goals.Nio has 12 CBUs, and the units that spend the most money include the research and development team's more than RMB 100 ($1.4 billion) a year, the marketing department's billions of RMB a year, and large staff costs, Li said.\"We need to answer the question of what effect these investments are actually producing, and then we need to do it by saving money where we should save money and spending money where we should spend it,\" he said.Options Strategies to Trade NIO’s EarningsGiven NIO’s elevated implied volatility (109.36%), earnings are likely to trigger significant price swings. Below are actionable strategies based on real-time options data:Source: Tiger Trade App1. Bear Put SpreadStructure:Buy NIO $5.00 PutSell NIO $4.50 Put$NIO Vertical 250321 4.5P/5.0P$Rationale:Hedges against downside toward support ($4.45).Max Profit: $26.50Breakeven: $4.76Source: Tiger Trade App2. Bull Call SpreadStructure:Buy NIO $5.00 CallSell NIO $5.50 Call$NIO Vertical 250321 5.0C/5.5C$Rationale:Targets a breakout above resistance ($4.93) toward $5.50.Net debit (cost) is minimized by selling the higher strike call.Max Profit: $36Breakeven: $5.14Source: Tiger Trade App","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO.SI":1.1,"09866":1.1,"NIO":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110887206,"gmtCreate":1622439034405,"gmtModify":1704184450238,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So neither Tesla nor SpaceX is in the list. How dumb is that.","listText":"So neither Tesla nor SpaceX is in the list. How dumb is that.","text":"So neither Tesla nor SpaceX is in the list. How dumb is that.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110887206","repostId":"2139487733","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9904684716,"gmtCreate":1660035655438,"gmtModify":1703477213098,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How far will Nvidia and AMD drop if no more GPU mining?","listText":"How far will Nvidia and AMD drop if no more GPU mining?","text":"How far will Nvidia and AMD drop if no more GPU mining?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9904684716","repostId":"1160329018","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160329018","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660047082,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160329018?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-09 20:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Game-Changing Profit Warning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160329018","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia announced preliminary results for Q2 2022.The company disappointed against both manage","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Nvidia announced preliminary results for Q2 2022.</li><li>The company disappointed against both management’s previous guidance and analyst consensus estimates.</li><li>I view the press release as a warning signal, that Nvidia is a cyclical company - like the entire semi industry.</li><li>In my opinion, Nvidia stock is overvalued - trading at almost x10 sales.</li><li>I advise to stay on the sidelines.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>On August 8th, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)announced preliminary results for Q2 2022 and the company disappointed against both management's previous guidance and analyst consensus estimates. In other words, Nvidia's press release was a profit warning. How should investors think about this? Should the information be ignored, appreciated as a buying opportunity or accepted as a warning signal? I tend towards the latter. In my opinion, Nvidia stock is overhyped and overvalued - trading at almost x10 sales. And as long as the company is stumbling, like the Q2 results indicate, I would not pay this enormous valuation premium.</p><p>Nvidia stock is down about 40% YTD, versus a loss of about 15% for the SPX.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8758b98543efdb11ca36a96617cc111c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>The Profit Warning</b></p><p>Nvidia's preliminary results were quite bad. As compared to the company's previous outlook of $8.10 billion, Nvidia now announced revenues of $6.70 billion. Notably, this represents a 19% decline quarter-over-quarter. While Nvidia did not provide income numbers, the company announced GAAP gross margin of 43.7%, versus 65.1% guided. GAAP operating expenses remained roughly in line with guidance at $2.46 billion. Nvidia's miss was largely driven by a strong weakness in the company's gaming exposure, which accounts for about 30% of total revenues. For Q2 2022, Gaming revenue was $2.04 billion, which is a 44% quarter-over-quarter decrease.</p><p>However, also the other segments disappointed, including Data Center, which is more than 50% of revenues. Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA commented:</p><blockquote><i>Data Center revenue, though a record, was somewhat short of the company's expectations, as it was impacted by supply chain disruptions.</i></blockquote><p>Investors should also note that the company highlighted $1.32 billion of charges, which were associated to inventory adjustments and related reserves as the company needed to revise expectations of future demand.</p><blockquote><i>Our gaming product sell-through projections declined significantly as the quarter progressed. As we expect the macroeconomic conditions affecting sell-through to continue, we took actions with our Gaming partners to adjust channel prices and inventory.</i></blockquote><p>Given these results, investors are craving for more insights: How is Q3 2022; what is the guidance for 2023; is Nvidia planning lay-offs like other tech companies? But unfortunately, management has not scheduled any analyst call before August 24.</p><p><b>Very Expensive Stock</b></p><p>Reflecting on Nvidia's Q2 results, I believe valuation will become more and more a concern to investors. Notably, Nvidia trades at a one-year forward P/E of x46, which is a 100% premium to the sector. The respective EV/EBITDA multiple is x34, versus x13 for the sector (170% premium). Please note that I am not cherry-picking here. Below is a comparative table of various multiples, which all indicate a considerable, approximately 100%, overvaluation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6ae5e33bc204aba73e6f76ad315f5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>In the recent past, let's say during the bubble, many investors have argued that Nvidia's enormous valuation and industry premium is justified, given the company's exposure to secular growth trends such as gaming, AI, the metaverse.</p><p>Investors arguably made the mistake to forget that semiconductor companies remain highly cyclical. And now, as the market is pressured by inflation, rising interest rates, low consumer confidence and international trade tensions, to name just a few, Nvidia's business starts to feel the downturn. That said, if investors support my thesis that semi companies, including Nvidia, are cyclical, they likely also accept that more pain (recession) is yet to come.</p><p><b>Implications and Recommendation</b></p><p>Nvidia is no doubt a great company. And I love a strong management that is led by a visionary founder-CEO such as Jensen Huang, who sustains the view that:</p><blockquote><i>NVIDIA has excellent products and position driving large and growing markets. As we navigate these challenges, we remain focused on the once-in-a-generation opportunity to reinvent computing for the era of AI</i></blockquote><p>However, Nvidia's valuation is way too expensive to allow for a margin of safety. Moreover, the semiconductor business is vulnerable to a global economic slowdown, which I believe many investors still have not priced sufficiently, as some market participants sustain the view that companies such as Nvidia are driven by secular, not cyclical growth levers. But I disagree. Following the Q2 profit warning, Nvidia shares lost as much as 10%. This is a game-changing warning signal. And, accordingly, I advise to stay on the sidelines.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Game-Changing Profit Warning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Game-Changing Profit Warning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-09 20:11 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531583-nvidia-game-changing-profit-warning?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A13><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia announced preliminary results for Q2 2022.The company disappointed against both management’s previous guidance and analyst consensus estimates.I view the press release as a warning ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531583-nvidia-game-changing-profit-warning?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A13\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531583-nvidia-game-changing-profit-warning?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A13","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160329018","content_text":"SummaryNvidia announced preliminary results for Q2 2022.The company disappointed against both management’s previous guidance and analyst consensus estimates.I view the press release as a warning signal, that Nvidia is a cyclical company - like the entire semi industry.In my opinion, Nvidia stock is overvalued - trading at almost x10 sales.I advise to stay on the sidelines.ThesisOn August 8th, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)announced preliminary results for Q2 2022 and the company disappointed against both management's previous guidance and analyst consensus estimates. In other words, Nvidia's press release was a profit warning. How should investors think about this? Should the information be ignored, appreciated as a buying opportunity or accepted as a warning signal? I tend towards the latter. In my opinion, Nvidia stock is overhyped and overvalued - trading at almost x10 sales. And as long as the company is stumbling, like the Q2 results indicate, I would not pay this enormous valuation premium.Nvidia stock is down about 40% YTD, versus a loss of about 15% for the SPX.Seeking AlphaThe Profit WarningNvidia's preliminary results were quite bad. As compared to the company's previous outlook of $8.10 billion, Nvidia now announced revenues of $6.70 billion. Notably, this represents a 19% decline quarter-over-quarter. While Nvidia did not provide income numbers, the company announced GAAP gross margin of 43.7%, versus 65.1% guided. GAAP operating expenses remained roughly in line with guidance at $2.46 billion. Nvidia's miss was largely driven by a strong weakness in the company's gaming exposure, which accounts for about 30% of total revenues. For Q2 2022, Gaming revenue was $2.04 billion, which is a 44% quarter-over-quarter decrease.However, also the other segments disappointed, including Data Center, which is more than 50% of revenues. Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA commented:Data Center revenue, though a record, was somewhat short of the company's expectations, as it was impacted by supply chain disruptions.Investors should also note that the company highlighted $1.32 billion of charges, which were associated to inventory adjustments and related reserves as the company needed to revise expectations of future demand.Our gaming product sell-through projections declined significantly as the quarter progressed. As we expect the macroeconomic conditions affecting sell-through to continue, we took actions with our Gaming partners to adjust channel prices and inventory.Given these results, investors are craving for more insights: How is Q3 2022; what is the guidance for 2023; is Nvidia planning lay-offs like other tech companies? But unfortunately, management has not scheduled any analyst call before August 24.Very Expensive StockReflecting on Nvidia's Q2 results, I believe valuation will become more and more a concern to investors. Notably, Nvidia trades at a one-year forward P/E of x46, which is a 100% premium to the sector. The respective EV/EBITDA multiple is x34, versus x13 for the sector (170% premium). Please note that I am not cherry-picking here. Below is a comparative table of various multiples, which all indicate a considerable, approximately 100%, overvaluation.Seeking AlphaIn the recent past, let's say during the bubble, many investors have argued that Nvidia's enormous valuation and industry premium is justified, given the company's exposure to secular growth trends such as gaming, AI, the metaverse.Investors arguably made the mistake to forget that semiconductor companies remain highly cyclical. And now, as the market is pressured by inflation, rising interest rates, low consumer confidence and international trade tensions, to name just a few, Nvidia's business starts to feel the downturn. That said, if investors support my thesis that semi companies, including Nvidia, are cyclical, they likely also accept that more pain (recession) is yet to come.Implications and RecommendationNvidia is no doubt a great company. And I love a strong management that is led by a visionary founder-CEO such as Jensen Huang, who sustains the view that:NVIDIA has excellent products and position driving large and growing markets. As we navigate these challenges, we remain focused on the once-in-a-generation opportunity to reinvent computing for the era of AIHowever, Nvidia's valuation is way too expensive to allow for a margin of safety. Moreover, the semiconductor business is vulnerable to a global economic slowdown, which I believe many investors still have not priced sufficiently, as some market participants sustain the view that companies such as Nvidia are driven by secular, not cyclical growth levers. But I disagree. Following the Q2 profit warning, Nvidia shares lost as much as 10%. This is a game-changing warning signal. And, accordingly, I advise to stay on the sidelines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":435386553815464,"gmtCreate":1747313455872,"gmtModify":1747313459574,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/435386553815464","repostId":"1171813662","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1171813662","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"1012688067","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1747312220,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171813662?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-05-15 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wholesale Inflation Shows Biggest Drop Since 2020, but It’s Unlikely to Last","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171813662","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"US April PPI YoY +2.4% (Est. +2.5%, Prior +2.7%)","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>The numbers:</strong> Wholesale prices posted the biggest drop in April since the pandemic in 2020, but the decline in inflation appeared to be a one-off tied to falling egg and gasoline prices and a quirky category that measures certain business profit margins.</p><p>The big reversal in the producer price index was unexpected. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% increase last month.</p><p>The rate of wholesale inflation in the past year, meanwhile, slowed to 2.4% from 3.4%.</p><p>Wholesale prices fell a slight 0.1% if the volatile categories of food, energy and retail trade margins are omitted. The so-called core rate is seen as a better predictor of future inflation.</p><p>The benign report on wholesale inflation follows a mild increase in consumer prices last month.</p><p>Those two inflation reports are used to help compile the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation barometer, known as the PCE. Taken together, they suggest the PCE will also show a softening in inflation in April.</p><p><strong>Big picture: </strong>The trade wars unleashed by President Trump didn’t appear to affect inflation in April since many of the tariffs weren’t put in place until mid-month or later.</p><p>The White House has since reduced tariffs, but they are still much higher than at any time since World War Two. The confusion sowed by the tariffs also froze global supply chains briefly as companies tried to figure out how to respond.</p><p>Economists predict higher tariffs and supply-chain chaos could increase inflation in the new few months, but it’s unclear just how much.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wholesale Inflation Shows Biggest Drop Since 2020, but It’s Unlikely to Last</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWholesale Inflation Shows Biggest Drop Since 2020, but It’s Unlikely to Last\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-15 20:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>The numbers:</strong> Wholesale prices posted the biggest drop in April since the pandemic in 2020, but the decline in inflation appeared to be a one-off tied to falling egg and gasoline prices and a quirky category that measures certain business profit margins.</p><p>The big reversal in the producer price index was unexpected. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% increase last month.</p><p>The rate of wholesale inflation in the past year, meanwhile, slowed to 2.4% from 3.4%.</p><p>Wholesale prices fell a slight 0.1% if the volatile categories of food, energy and retail trade margins are omitted. The so-called core rate is seen as a better predictor of future inflation.</p><p>The benign report on wholesale inflation follows a mild increase in consumer prices last month.</p><p>Those two inflation reports are used to help compile the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation barometer, known as the PCE. Taken together, they suggest the PCE will also show a softening in inflation in April.</p><p><strong>Big picture: </strong>The trade wars unleashed by President Trump didn’t appear to affect inflation in April since many of the tariffs weren’t put in place until mid-month or later.</p><p>The White House has since reduced tariffs, but they are still much higher than at any time since World War Two. The confusion sowed by the tariffs also froze global supply chains briefly as companies tried to figure out how to respond.</p><p>Economists predict higher tariffs and supply-chain chaos could increase inflation in the new few months, but it’s unclear just how much.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171813662","content_text":"The numbers: Wholesale prices posted the biggest drop in April since the pandemic in 2020, but the decline in inflation appeared to be a one-off tied to falling egg and gasoline prices and a quirky category that measures certain business profit margins.The big reversal in the producer price index was unexpected. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% increase last month.The rate of wholesale inflation in the past year, meanwhile, slowed to 2.4% from 3.4%.Wholesale prices fell a slight 0.1% if the volatile categories of food, energy and retail trade margins are omitted. The so-called core rate is seen as a better predictor of future inflation.The benign report on wholesale inflation follows a mild increase in consumer prices last month.Those two inflation reports are used to help compile the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation barometer, known as the PCE. Taken together, they suggest the PCE will also show a softening in inflation in April.Big picture: The trade wars unleashed by President Trump didn’t appear to affect inflation in April since many of the tariffs weren’t put in place until mid-month or later.The White House has since reduced tariffs, but they are still much higher than at any time since World War Two. The confusion sowed by the tariffs also froze global supply chains briefly as companies tried to figure out how to respond.Economists predict higher tariffs and supply-chain chaos could increase inflation in the new few months, but it’s unclear just how much.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":1,"YMmain":1,".DJI":1,".SPX":1,"ESmain":1,"NQmain":1,".IXIC":1,"TQQQ":1,"QQQ":1,"SQQQ":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839709350,"gmtCreate":1629178498370,"gmtModify":1676529955297,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What could be the biggest bullish drive for China tech stocks? A new leadership.","listText":"What could be the biggest bullish drive for China tech stocks? A new leadership.","text":"What could be the biggest bullish drive for China tech stocks? A new leadership.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839709350","repostId":"2159222279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891028173,"gmtCreate":1628309109392,"gmtModify":1703504919166,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Anyone fancy Farady Future?","listText":"Anyone fancy Farady Future?","text":"Anyone fancy Farady Future?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891028173","repostId":"1143051031","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375915016671304,"gmtCreate":1732794210027,"gmtModify":1732799552101,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"In every crypto bear cycle some big names get busted. MSTR may as well be the next one.","listText":"In every crypto bear cycle some big names get busted. MSTR may as well be the next one.","text":"In every crypto bear cycle some big names get busted. MSTR may as well be the next one.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375915016671304","repostId":"1154834908","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1154834908","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1732789910,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154834908?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-28 18:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"MicroStrategy: Shorts Are Playing With Fire","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154834908","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryCitron Research is shorting MicroStrategy, but I believe the stock's bullish technicals make a sell rating unwarranted; I rate it a hold.Daily and weekly chart analyses show strong uptrends wit","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3071328920\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Citron Research is shorting MicroStrategy, but I believe the stock's bullish technicals make a sell rating unwarranted; I rate it a hold.</p></li><li><p>Daily and weekly chart analyses show strong uptrends with no resistance, indicating potential for further stock appreciation despite recent pullbacks.</p></li><li><p>Fundamental analysis reveals overvaluation with weak earnings and high P/S and P/B ratios, suggesting long-term risks despite bullish technical signals.</p></li><li><p>Conflicting technical and fundamental signals lead to a hold rating, cautioning shorts about potential near-term bullish momentum before fundamentals reassert.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/44a65a39741c3708a2c04ecf88c953fb\" alt=\"MicroStockHub\" title=\"MicroStockHub\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"474\"/><span>MicroStockHub</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3184934740\">Thesis</h2><p>Citron Research recently announced that they are now shorting MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ:MSTR) stock as they believe that it is detached from fundamentals. While I also believe the stock is currently overvalued, in my view, Citron Research is playing with fire by shorting the stock as the technicals are overwhelmingly bullish. In the below analysis, I determine that charts, moving averages, and most indicators show that the stock's outlook is positive and that the recent pullback is a healthy correction in the long run. Note that a monthly analysis has not been provided, as I believe the 2020 to present period is the most relevant due to MicroStrategy's implementation of its Bitcoin strategy in 2020. In the fundamentals section, I explain my evaluation that MicroStrategy stock is overvalued using the P/S and P/B ratios as well as trends in their earnings and Bitcoin investments. In the long run, the stock may revert to reflecting the fundamentals and could prove Citron Research to be right. However, before that occurs, history has shown that overvalued stocks can become much more overvalued. With highly bullish technicals, history can easily repeat itself with MicroStrategy stock. With the stock significantly overvalued, I cannot recommend buying it at these levels, but with the technicals so strong, I also believe a sell rating is unwarranted at this juncture. Therefore, I initiate coverage at a hold rating.</p><h2 id=\"id_1156402332\">Daily Analysis</h2><h3 id=\"id_2940204203\">Chart Analysis</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a97dac49f1fbfa9eb6a36d28d0dd76d3\" alt=\"Yahoo Finance\" title=\"Yahoo Finance\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>The daily chart is quite a positive one for MicroStrategy as there is no resistance above the stock. The stock is in both a slightly longer-term uptrend and a recent accelerated uptrend. It also has many support levels beneath the stock. The nearest current support would be the accelerated uptrend line that has moved past 400 and is sloping up very quickly. Its sustainability could be in question as its trajectory may be too steep. The next support level is also quite close and is in the mid-380s. In the last week or so, that level has been both resistance and support, making it a highly important zone. Moving down, the mid-320s is also support, as there is a consolidation area that found support at that price level. Although quite distant, we also have support in the mid-270s as that was an upside gap and the slower uptrend line is also nearing that level as well. Other noteworthy items include the fact that the stock has closed an upside gap that I have circled, showing that the stock has corrected as of late, and the bearish engulfing pattern at the peak a few days ago, perhaps indicating that a near term peak is in. Nonetheless, it is hard to argue against the overall bullishness of the daily chart as the stock is in strong uptrends with no resistance in sight.</p><h3 id=\"id_4239491117\">Moving Average Analysis</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6aaaeb09c88ae46f160b985f2d54c465\" alt=\"Yahoo Finance\" title=\"Yahoo Finance\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>There have been no crossovers between the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA in the past year, with the 50-day SMA staying on top the entire time, indicating sustained bullishness. The 50-day SMA has recently widened the gap significantly with the 200-day SMA, indicating accelerating bullish momentum in the stock. The stock does trade miles above the 50-day SMA, however, as the 50-day SMA's support is only at around 240. For the Bollinger Bands, the stock recently broke above the upper band, and so the current pullback is not at all surprising. As volatility expands, the upper band may continue to surge higher, creating more room for the stock to run higher without being overbought. The 20-day midline is the nearest MA support at around 320. Overall, I believe that while the stock may be a bit overbought as it is much higher than its 50-day SMA, there are really no outright bearish indications here to convince me that the near term technicals have turned negative.</p><h3 id=\"id_2938062328\">Indicator Analysis</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6ff5ea19d6bb172a266a222f7fc0bc7d\" alt=\"Yahoo Finance\" title=\"Yahoo Finance\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>The MACD crossed above the signal line earlier this month, a bullish signal. The gap between the lines has narrowed a bit, as indicated by the red histogram, showing that bullishness has been receding a bit as of late. This is not surprising given that the stock is currently in an overbought pullback. The MACD's run to one year highs also confirms the latest surge in the stock. For the RSI, it is currently at 64.39 having just exited the overbought 70 level. The RSI has held above 50 since mid-September, showing that the bulls are in clear control of the stock. Lastly, for the stochastics, the %K just recently crossed below the %D within the overbought 80 zone, a bearish signal. This again is not surprising given that the stock is undergoing an overbought correction. Note that the stochastics has remained above the 50 level since mid-September and has, in fact, found support at that level multiple times. This indicates that the bulls have been resilient in recent pullbacks, and investors should monitor this indicator closely to see if it bounces from this level again. As a whole, I would say that these indicators were mainly positive in the longer term, as the recent bearish indications are merely reflecting the stock's healthy pullback.</p><h3 id=\"id_3704937246\">Takeaway</h3><p>The short-term technical outlook for MicroStrategy is a strong one, as all three analyses indicate that the stock could run further in the near future. The chart shows that the stock remains in both a slower and an accelerated uptrend, while the MAs show accelerating bullish momentum. Lastly, for the indicators, as discussed above, there were key bullish signals and while there were some near-term bearish signals, they merely reflect the recent healthy pullback in the stock.</p><h2 id=\"id_629513900\">Weekly Analysis</h2><h3 id=\"id_3203039374\">Chart Analysis</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c358683c3cb5dc6c6c9bd0528030d9d5\" alt=\"Yahoo Finance\" title=\"Yahoo Finance\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>Note that the above chart is in a log scale to better reflect the last few years of trading history in MicroStrategy stock. The weekly chart is also a highly positive one for the stock, as it has now broken above the upper channel line and is in an accelerated uptrend. The upward channel has been in effect since early 2023 and in October this year, the stock broke above it, an indication of strength. The nearest support level would be at a gap in the low 270s. This is basically the same gap as in the daily analysis, but being on the weekly chart further adds to its significance. The next support level would be the upper channel line, and it has just moved past 210. The other two support zones are very distant due to the log scale, but I believe are still noteworthy. The lower channel line is approaching 130 and there is also a support level at 110 as that price level was major resistance in 2021 and is also at an upside gap formed earlier this year, making it a very significant area. Overall, I believe there is not much to complain about here, as there are no bearish indications to be seen.</p><h3 id=\"id_869051729\">Moving Average Analysis</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6f070a051a11b56dd0f28b36af2cb664\" alt=\"Yahoo Finance\" title=\"Yahoo Finance\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>The 13-week SMA had a bullish crossover with the 26-week SMA earlier this year where the 13-week SMA just dipped below the 26-week SMA and bounced back very quickly. The gap between the SMAs has expanded rapidly lately as the stock has surged, indicating accelerating bullish momentum. Again, the stock trades far above the SMAs, showing that it could be overbought with the 13-week SMA's support at only 237. For the Bollinger Bands, the stock remains above the upper band, showing that it is indeed still overbought in the longer term time frame. Therefore, a further pullback in the stock is definitely not out of the question and could, in fact, be healthy for the stock's long-term trend. The 20-week midline is only at around 206, but its support is nearer than the 26-week SMA. From my analysis, there is nothing wrong with MicroStrategy stock in the long term, even if it continues its recent pullback. The MAs are solidly bullish, and the stock just needs a healthy correction.</p><h3 id=\"id_3635207665\">Indicator Analysis</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7357997dbd5ee7515b536790b6544d8d\" alt=\"Yahoo Finance\" title=\"Yahoo Finance\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>The MACD had a bullish crossover with the signal line back in late September, and the stock has surged since then. The gap between the lines continues to expand as demonstrated by the green histogram and again shows accelerating bullish momentum. Like in the daily analysis, the weekly MACD's run to 5-year highs, confirms the recent surge in the stock. For the RSI, it is currently above the overbought 70 zone as it is at 80.41. There is some slight negative divergence with the RSI here, as the most recent peak fails to surpass the peak earlier this year and the one back in 2021. Since the MACD does confirm the recent run, I believe this divergence signal has less significance and should be taken with a grain of salt. Lastly, for the stochastics, the %K has crossed below %D within the overbought 80 zone in October, a bearish indication. However, both lines have generally remained in or near that zone since the bearish crossover, showing that bullishness has been sustained despite the negative signal. From my analysis, these weekly indicators are slightly more mixed in their signalling as there are both bullish and bearish indications here, but I believe the MACD's confirmation of the bull run should give investors some peace of mind.</p><h3 id=\"id_128086230\">Takeaway</h3><p>Overall, I would say that the long-term technical outlook for MicroStrategy is also positive, as the vast majority of signals are bullish. The charts show that the stock has broken out of an upward channel and is now in an accelerated uptrend, while the MAs once again show accelerating bullish momentum. For the indicators, there were mixed signals that show some uncertainty, but as discussed above, I would consider the MACD's bullish confirmation as the most important signal.</p><h2 id=\"id_3812953207\">Fundamentals & Valuation</h2><h3 id=\"id_1136376142\">Earnings</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a40d220b25454bd5145b5ca29a578107\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"537\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>MicroStrategy reported their Q3 earnings back in late October and showed weak operating results. They reported revenues of $116.1 million, down 10.3% YoY and a GAAP Net Loss of $1.72 per share. Both figures missed expectations with revenue missing by $5.38 million and EPS missing by $1.60. As you can see in the charts above, revenue is at weak levels compared to past years and EPS is on a worrying trajectory. Of course, these operational results have taken a back seat as the focus is firmly on the company's Bitcoin investments. MicroStrategy reported a 5.1% "BTC Yield" KPI in the quarter and projected a target annual BTC Yield of 6-10% from 2025 to 2027. It also announced a $21 billion equity offering at market price and an additional raising of $21 billion from fixed-income securities to fund its Bitcoin investments. As of this report, they are holding 252,220 Bitcoins, translating into a current total market value of $23.5 billion. The company has made significant purchases since then with the most recent purchases occurring last week, where they purchased an additional 55,000 Bitcoins. As of this latest Sunday, they hold 386,700 Bitcoins, translating into a current total market value of $36.1 billion. From the chart above, you can see that the company's book value has soared in the past two years along with the bull run in Bitcoin itself.</p><h3 id=\"id_372276589\">Valuation</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8930a8daabd7c2a06eaa49441ed3feeb\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"491\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>In my view, it is clear that MicroStrategy is overvalued at current levels. Earnings are now negative, and so a P/E analysis would be irrelevant. The P/S ratio is currently at 167, dropping slightly from its all-time highs of over 180 recently. The P/B ratio is currently at 24 and is at a five-year-high, excluding the 2021-2022 spike. As I said earlier, of course, the focus has shifted to Bitcoin, but the company's current market cap of $76 billion shows that its Bitcoin holdings of $36.1 billion are just a portion of the value. Therefore, the P/S should still be a relevant measure of value for the stock and so with revenues near five-year lows, I believe the current P/S ratio is unjustified. For the P/B ratio, MicroStrategy started to buy Bitcoin back in 2020 and has been increasing their holdings since then, which deserves a premium, but the P/B ratio is now at approximately 2 times the five-year average, excluding the 2021 spike. Despite their aggressive strategy, I, personally, find the P/B ratio of over 24 to be too rich. From my analysis of the P/S and P/B ratios, I believe the stock is overvalued at current levels. For MicroStrategy stock, Seeking Alpha currently has an F valuation rating for the P/S ratio and a D- rating for the P/B ratio, confirming my evaluation.</p><h2 id=\"id_1452635653\">Conclusion</h2><p>From the above analysis, it is clear that the technicals differ highly with the fundamentals on their outlooks for the stock. The vast majority of technical indications were bullish as the chart showed the stock is in accelerated uptrends while MAs show strong bullish momentum. While indicators were a bit more mixed overall, there were key signals of strength that confirm the recent surge in the stock. For the fundamentals, with revenue being very sluggish, I find the stock to be overvalued in terms of the P/S ratio and while the increasingly large Bitcoin pile deserves a P/B expansion, I believe the ratio has gone too far currently as it is at an eye-watering level of 24. I therefore conclude that the stock is significantly overvalued at current levels. While the stock could revert to reflecting its fundamentals in the long run and prove Citron Research to be right in the long run, in the near term, I believe the stock could have room to run due to the technicals being heavily in MicroStrategy's favour. With conflicting technical and fundamental signals, I initiate the stock at a hold rating, but I believe shorts are at a high risk of being burned before their predictions come true.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>MicroStrategy: Shorts Are Playing With Fire</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicroStrategy: Shorts Are Playing With Fire\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-28 18:31 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4740856-microstrategy-shorts-are-playing-fire-technical-analysis><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryCitron Research is shorting MicroStrategy, but I believe the stock's bullish technicals make a sell rating unwarranted; I rate it a hold.Daily and weekly chart analyses show strong uptrends ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4740856-microstrategy-shorts-are-playing-fire-technical-analysis\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSTR":"Strategy"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4740856-microstrategy-shorts-are-playing-fire-technical-analysis","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154834908","content_text":"SummaryCitron Research is shorting MicroStrategy, but I believe the stock's bullish technicals make a sell rating unwarranted; I rate it a hold.Daily and weekly chart analyses show strong uptrends with no resistance, indicating potential for further stock appreciation despite recent pullbacks.Fundamental analysis reveals overvaluation with weak earnings and high P/S and P/B ratios, suggesting long-term risks despite bullish technical signals.Conflicting technical and fundamental signals lead to a hold rating, cautioning shorts about potential near-term bullish momentum before fundamentals reassert.MicroStockHubThesisCitron Research recently announced that they are now shorting MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ:MSTR) stock as they believe that it is detached from fundamentals. While I also believe the stock is currently overvalued, in my view, Citron Research is playing with fire by shorting the stock as the technicals are overwhelmingly bullish. In the below analysis, I determine that charts, moving averages, and most indicators show that the stock's outlook is positive and that the recent pullback is a healthy correction in the long run. Note that a monthly analysis has not been provided, as I believe the 2020 to present period is the most relevant due to MicroStrategy's implementation of its Bitcoin strategy in 2020. In the fundamentals section, I explain my evaluation that MicroStrategy stock is overvalued using the P/S and P/B ratios as well as trends in their earnings and Bitcoin investments. In the long run, the stock may revert to reflecting the fundamentals and could prove Citron Research to be right. However, before that occurs, history has shown that overvalued stocks can become much more overvalued. With highly bullish technicals, history can easily repeat itself with MicroStrategy stock. With the stock significantly overvalued, I cannot recommend buying it at these levels, but with the technicals so strong, I also believe a sell rating is unwarranted at this juncture. Therefore, I initiate coverage at a hold rating.Daily AnalysisChart AnalysisYahoo FinanceThe daily chart is quite a positive one for MicroStrategy as there is no resistance above the stock. The stock is in both a slightly longer-term uptrend and a recent accelerated uptrend. It also has many support levels beneath the stock. The nearest current support would be the accelerated uptrend line that has moved past 400 and is sloping up very quickly. Its sustainability could be in question as its trajectory may be too steep. The next support level is also quite close and is in the mid-380s. In the last week or so, that level has been both resistance and support, making it a highly important zone. Moving down, the mid-320s is also support, as there is a consolidation area that found support at that price level. Although quite distant, we also have support in the mid-270s as that was an upside gap and the slower uptrend line is also nearing that level as well. Other noteworthy items include the fact that the stock has closed an upside gap that I have circled, showing that the stock has corrected as of late, and the bearish engulfing pattern at the peak a few days ago, perhaps indicating that a near term peak is in. Nonetheless, it is hard to argue against the overall bullishness of the daily chart as the stock is in strong uptrends with no resistance in sight.Moving Average AnalysisYahoo FinanceThere have been no crossovers between the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA in the past year, with the 50-day SMA staying on top the entire time, indicating sustained bullishness. The 50-day SMA has recently widened the gap significantly with the 200-day SMA, indicating accelerating bullish momentum in the stock. The stock does trade miles above the 50-day SMA, however, as the 50-day SMA's support is only at around 240. For the Bollinger Bands, the stock recently broke above the upper band, and so the current pullback is not at all surprising. As volatility expands, the upper band may continue to surge higher, creating more room for the stock to run higher without being overbought. The 20-day midline is the nearest MA support at around 320. Overall, I believe that while the stock may be a bit overbought as it is much higher than its 50-day SMA, there are really no outright bearish indications here to convince me that the near term technicals have turned negative.Indicator AnalysisYahoo FinanceThe MACD crossed above the signal line earlier this month, a bullish signal. The gap between the lines has narrowed a bit, as indicated by the red histogram, showing that bullishness has been receding a bit as of late. This is not surprising given that the stock is currently in an overbought pullback. The MACD's run to one year highs also confirms the latest surge in the stock. For the RSI, it is currently at 64.39 having just exited the overbought 70 level. The RSI has held above 50 since mid-September, showing that the bulls are in clear control of the stock. Lastly, for the stochastics, the %K just recently crossed below the %D within the overbought 80 zone, a bearish signal. This again is not surprising given that the stock is undergoing an overbought correction. Note that the stochastics has remained above the 50 level since mid-September and has, in fact, found support at that level multiple times. This indicates that the bulls have been resilient in recent pullbacks, and investors should monitor this indicator closely to see if it bounces from this level again. As a whole, I would say that these indicators were mainly positive in the longer term, as the recent bearish indications are merely reflecting the stock's healthy pullback.TakeawayThe short-term technical outlook for MicroStrategy is a strong one, as all three analyses indicate that the stock could run further in the near future. The chart shows that the stock remains in both a slower and an accelerated uptrend, while the MAs show accelerating bullish momentum. Lastly, for the indicators, as discussed above, there were key bullish signals and while there were some near-term bearish signals, they merely reflect the recent healthy pullback in the stock.Weekly AnalysisChart AnalysisYahoo FinanceNote that the above chart is in a log scale to better reflect the last few years of trading history in MicroStrategy stock. The weekly chart is also a highly positive one for the stock, as it has now broken above the upper channel line and is in an accelerated uptrend. The upward channel has been in effect since early 2023 and in October this year, the stock broke above it, an indication of strength. The nearest support level would be at a gap in the low 270s. This is basically the same gap as in the daily analysis, but being on the weekly chart further adds to its significance. The next support level would be the upper channel line, and it has just moved past 210. The other two support zones are very distant due to the log scale, but I believe are still noteworthy. The lower channel line is approaching 130 and there is also a support level at 110 as that price level was major resistance in 2021 and is also at an upside gap formed earlier this year, making it a very significant area. Overall, I believe there is not much to complain about here, as there are no bearish indications to be seen.Moving Average AnalysisYahoo FinanceThe 13-week SMA had a bullish crossover with the 26-week SMA earlier this year where the 13-week SMA just dipped below the 26-week SMA and bounced back very quickly. The gap between the SMAs has expanded rapidly lately as the stock has surged, indicating accelerating bullish momentum. Again, the stock trades far above the SMAs, showing that it could be overbought with the 13-week SMA's support at only 237. For the Bollinger Bands, the stock remains above the upper band, showing that it is indeed still overbought in the longer term time frame. Therefore, a further pullback in the stock is definitely not out of the question and could, in fact, be healthy for the stock's long-term trend. The 20-week midline is only at around 206, but its support is nearer than the 26-week SMA. From my analysis, there is nothing wrong with MicroStrategy stock in the long term, even if it continues its recent pullback. The MAs are solidly bullish, and the stock just needs a healthy correction.Indicator AnalysisYahoo FinanceThe MACD had a bullish crossover with the signal line back in late September, and the stock has surged since then. The gap between the lines continues to expand as demonstrated by the green histogram and again shows accelerating bullish momentum. Like in the daily analysis, the weekly MACD's run to 5-year highs, confirms the recent surge in the stock. For the RSI, it is currently above the overbought 70 zone as it is at 80.41. There is some slight negative divergence with the RSI here, as the most recent peak fails to surpass the peak earlier this year and the one back in 2021. Since the MACD does confirm the recent run, I believe this divergence signal has less significance and should be taken with a grain of salt. Lastly, for the stochastics, the %K has crossed below %D within the overbought 80 zone in October, a bearish indication. However, both lines have generally remained in or near that zone since the bearish crossover, showing that bullishness has been sustained despite the negative signal. From my analysis, these weekly indicators are slightly more mixed in their signalling as there are both bullish and bearish indications here, but I believe the MACD's confirmation of the bull run should give investors some peace of mind.TakeawayOverall, I would say that the long-term technical outlook for MicroStrategy is also positive, as the vast majority of signals are bullish. The charts show that the stock has broken out of an upward channel and is now in an accelerated uptrend, while the MAs once again show accelerating bullish momentum. For the indicators, there were mixed signals that show some uncertainty, but as discussed above, I would consider the MACD's bullish confirmation as the most important signal.Fundamentals & ValuationEarningsData by YChartsMicroStrategy reported their Q3 earnings back in late October and showed weak operating results. They reported revenues of $116.1 million, down 10.3% YoY and a GAAP Net Loss of $1.72 per share. Both figures missed expectations with revenue missing by $5.38 million and EPS missing by $1.60. As you can see in the charts above, revenue is at weak levels compared to past years and EPS is on a worrying trajectory. Of course, these operational results have taken a back seat as the focus is firmly on the company's Bitcoin investments. MicroStrategy reported a 5.1% \"BTC Yield\" KPI in the quarter and projected a target annual BTC Yield of 6-10% from 2025 to 2027. It also announced a $21 billion equity offering at market price and an additional raising of $21 billion from fixed-income securities to fund its Bitcoin investments. As of this report, they are holding 252,220 Bitcoins, translating into a current total market value of $23.5 billion. The company has made significant purchases since then with the most recent purchases occurring last week, where they purchased an additional 55,000 Bitcoins. As of this latest Sunday, they hold 386,700 Bitcoins, translating into a current total market value of $36.1 billion. From the chart above, you can see that the company's book value has soared in the past two years along with the bull run in Bitcoin itself.ValuationData by YChartsIn my view, it is clear that MicroStrategy is overvalued at current levels. Earnings are now negative, and so a P/E analysis would be irrelevant. The P/S ratio is currently at 167, dropping slightly from its all-time highs of over 180 recently. The P/B ratio is currently at 24 and is at a five-year-high, excluding the 2021-2022 spike. As I said earlier, of course, the focus has shifted to Bitcoin, but the company's current market cap of $76 billion shows that its Bitcoin holdings of $36.1 billion are just a portion of the value. Therefore, the P/S should still be a relevant measure of value for the stock and so with revenues near five-year lows, I believe the current P/S ratio is unjustified. For the P/B ratio, MicroStrategy started to buy Bitcoin back in 2020 and has been increasing their holdings since then, which deserves a premium, but the P/B ratio is now at approximately 2 times the five-year average, excluding the 2021 spike. Despite their aggressive strategy, I, personally, find the P/B ratio of over 24 to be too rich. From my analysis of the P/S and P/B ratios, I believe the stock is overvalued at current levels. For MicroStrategy stock, Seeking Alpha currently has an F valuation rating for the P/S ratio and a D- rating for the P/B ratio, confirming my evaluation.ConclusionFrom the above analysis, it is clear that the technicals differ highly with the fundamentals on their outlooks for the stock. The vast majority of technical indications were bullish as the chart showed the stock is in accelerated uptrends while MAs show strong bullish momentum. While indicators were a bit more mixed overall, there were key signals of strength that confirm the recent surge in the stock. For the fundamentals, with revenue being very sluggish, I find the stock to be overvalued in terms of the P/S ratio and while the increasingly large Bitcoin pile deserves a P/B expansion, I believe the ratio has gone too far currently as it is at an eye-watering level of 24. I therefore conclude that the stock is significantly overvalued at current levels. While the stock could revert to reflecting its fundamentals in the long run and prove Citron Research to be right in the long run, in the near term, I believe the stock could have room to run due to the technicals being heavily in MicroStrategy's favour. With conflicting technical and fundamental signals, I initiate the stock at a hold rating, but I believe shorts are at a high risk of being burned before their predictions come true.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSTR":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":231109373735184,"gmtCreate":1697449111547,"gmtModify":1697449116123,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I'm just curious, who on earth is taking COVID shots now?","listText":"I'm just curious, who on earth is taking COVID shots now?","text":"I'm just curious, who on earth is taking COVID shots now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/231109373735184","repostId":"2375189549","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2375189549","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1697428317,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2375189549?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-10-16 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EU Delays Approval of Novavax's Revised COVID Vaccine","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2375189549","media":"Reuters","summary":"European Union regulators have delayed the decision to give approval for Novavax's variant-tailored COVID-19 vaccine, the Financial Times said on Sunday.The European Medicines Agency , which was due to approve the updated vaccine last Friday has requested more information from the company, the FT report added.\"As part of the ongoing review process, [the EMA] has additional questions, which we are answering expeditiously,\" Novavax told the Financial Times.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>European Union regulators have delayed the decision to give approval for Novavax's variant-tailored COVID-19 vaccine, the Financial Times said on Sunday.</p><p>The European Medicines Agency (EMA), which was due to approve the updated vaccine last Friday has requested more information from the company, the FT report added.</p><p>"As part of the ongoing review process, [the EMA] has additional questions, which we are answering expeditiously," Novavax told the Financial Times.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EU Delays Approval of Novavax's Revised COVID Vaccine</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEU Delays Approval of Novavax's Revised COVID Vaccine\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-10-16 11:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>European Union regulators have delayed the decision to give approval for Novavax's variant-tailored COVID-19 vaccine, the Financial Times said on Sunday.</p><p>The European Medicines Agency (EMA), which was due to approve the updated vaccine last Friday has requested more information from the company, the FT report added.</p><p>"As part of the ongoing review process, [the EMA] has additional questions, which we are answering expeditiously," Novavax told the Financial Times.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2375189549","content_text":"European Union regulators have delayed the decision to give approval for Novavax's variant-tailored COVID-19 vaccine, the Financial Times said on Sunday.The European Medicines Agency (EMA), which was due to approve the updated vaccine last Friday has requested more information from the company, the FT report added.\"As part of the ongoing review process, [the EMA] has additional questions, which we are answering expeditiously,\" Novavax told the Financial Times.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":230347708096792,"gmtCreate":1697279164780,"gmtModify":1697279169181,"author":{"id":"3574268746625921","authorId":"3574268746625921","name":"森田小狼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3239c85bee9fe7da7e4734663b3447ec","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574268746625921","idStr":"3574268746625921"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I consider myself liberal on many issues. But co-governance? No thank you. I'm not interested in living in a tribe.","listText":"I consider myself liberal on many issues. But co-governance? No thank you. I'm not interested in living in a tribe.","text":"I consider myself liberal on many issues. But co-governance? No thank you. I'm not interested in living in a tribe.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/230347708096792","repostId":"2375691972","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}