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2021-06-17

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2021-06-16

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First Look: Solid Power, a Ford-Backed QuantumScape Rival, Will Go Public via SPAC

2021-06-16

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It’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks

2021-06-16

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Is Virgin Galactic Stock a Buy?

2021-06-16

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2021-06-16

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2021-06-15

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Netflix: The Selloff Looks Overdone

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1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 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15:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"First Look: Solid Power, a Ford-Backed QuantumScape Rival, Will Go Public via SPAC","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117953789","media":"fool","summary":"Solid Power, a promising solid-state battery start-up backed by Ford Motor(NYSE:F)and BMW, said that","content":"<p>Solid Power, a promising solid-state battery start-up backed by&nbsp;<b>Ford Motor</b>(NYSE:F)and&nbsp;<b>BMW</b>, said that it has agreed to go public via a merger with special purpose acquisition company (SPAC)<b>Decarbonization Plus Acquisition III</b>(NASDAQ:DCRC).</p>\n<p>The deal values the combined company at about $1.2 billion.</p>\n<p>Many investors have been overwhelmed by the number of SPAC deals in the electric-vehicle space over the last year, and some have soured on the space now that a couple of last year's darlings have turned out to be, well, less than they seemed.But if you still believe that electric vehicles are the future (I do), Solid Power is worth a close look. It's a company with real potential, with some big customers ready and waiting for its products, and with technology that's much closer to mass production than that of its most prominent rivals.</p>\n<p><b>What is Solid Power</b></p>\n<p>Colorado-based Solid Power, founded in 2012, is one of several companies working to develop so-called solid-state batteries, which omit the liquid electrolyte used in the lithium-ion batteries that power most electric vehicles today. (Among the others:<b>QuantumScape</b>(NYSE:QS), which drew lots of attention from investors after it went public via its own SPAC deal late last year.)</p>\n<p>Solid-state batteries have the potential to offer greater energy density than lithium-ion batteries with less weight, but a design that can be mass-produced at a reasonable cost has eluded researchers for years.</p>\n<p>That may soon change.</p>\n<p><b>What makes this a big deal</b></p>\n<p>First and foremost, Solid Power appears to be closer to mass production than its rivals. Most solid-state battery efforts are at least a few years away from production. QuantumScape, for example, is<i>hoping</i>tobegin pilot production of its batteriesin about three years. But Solid Power is already producing its second-generation 20 ampere-hour (Ah) battery cells on a pilot production line, and it expects to begin pilot production of its full-scale 100 Ah batteries next year.</p>\n<p>Second -- again, unlike most competitors -- Solid Power's solid-state battery cells can be manufactured with equipment and processes adapted from lithium-ion battery manufacturing, meaning that existing battery plants can be converted to build Solid Power's cells at relatively low cost.</p>\n<p>Finally, as I mentioned above, bothFord and BMW are investors in Solid Power. Both participated in the company's most recent funding round earlier this year, both expect to receive batches of those 100 Ah cells for testing in their own electric vehicles next year, and assuming those tests go well, both will be early customers for the company's mass-produced cells.</p>\n<p><b>What are the terms of the Solid Power SPAC deal</b></p>\n<p>Solid Power's deal to merge with Decarbonization Plus III follows the pattern of other SPAC deals we've seen in the electric vehicle space over the past year, in that it includes a PIPE (for \"private investment in public equity\") that allows big investors to buy stock in the merged company at an agreed-upon price, adding extra cash to the deal.</p>\n<p>Here are the key points of the deal:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Decarbonization Plus III is contributing the cash it holds in trust, about $350 million.</li>\n <li>The PIPE will bring another $165 million from investors including<b>Riverstone Energy</b>, Koch Industries' venture-capital fund, and funds advised by Neuberger Berman and VanEck Global.</li>\n <li>Together with the $135 million that Solid Power raised in its Series B round last month, the post-merger company will have about $650 million in cash.</li>\n <li>The merged company will retain the Solid Power name and will trade on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the ticker symbol \"SLDP.\"</li>\n <li>The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2021.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>What are the risks if I buy DCRC now</b></p>\n<p>As with any SPAC deal involving a company that hasn't yet brought its product to market, there are risks investors should keep in mind:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>It's possible that the deal won't close, or that it'll close later than scheduled.</li>\n <li>It's possible that the company's technology won't pan out, or that it goes into production later than expected. Investors who are used to tech start-up time frames should note that the pace of progress in the battery space is<i>glacial</i>by comparison. Solid Power has been working on its batteries since 2012, QuantumScape since 2010.</li>\n <li>It's possible that one or more competitors will beat Solid Power to market, taking significant share.</li>\n <li>It's possible that we'll learn things about Solid Power that make it a less attractive investment. (I have no reason to think this will happen, but all SPAC investors should be mindful of the examples of<b>Nikola</b>and<b>Lordstown Motors</b>, both of which made important claims that werelater foundtohave been exaggerated.)</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Is DCRC a buy</b></p>\n<p>I'm not sure yet, but right now I'm leaning toward \"yes.\" Solid Power's technology is very promising, and executives at Ford think highly of the company's technology and leadership team. As with any battery start-up, the question is when (and whether) the company can bring its batteries to market -- but I think Solid Power will still have good growth potential even if production slips by a year or two.</p>\n<p>That said, I'm still working through all of the company's investor materials, and I expect to have more thoughts on Solid Power's valuation and growth potential in a few days. Stay tuned.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>First Look: Solid Power, a Ford-Backed QuantumScape Rival, Will Go Public via SPAC</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFirst Look: Solid Power, a Ford-Backed QuantumScape Rival, Will Go Public via SPAC\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 15:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/first-look-solid-power-a-ford-backed-quantumscape/><strong>fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Solid Power, a promising solid-state battery start-up backed by Ford Motor(NYSE:F)and BMW, said that it has agreed to go public via a merger with special purpose acquisition company (SPAC)...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/first-look-solid-power-a-ford-backed-quantumscape/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BAMXF":"Bayerische Motoren Werke AG","F":"福特汽车","QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/first-look-solid-power-a-ford-backed-quantumscape/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117953789","content_text":"Solid Power, a promising solid-state battery start-up backed by Ford Motor(NYSE:F)and BMW, said that it has agreed to go public via a merger with special purpose acquisition company (SPAC)Decarbonization Plus Acquisition III(NASDAQ:DCRC).\nThe deal values the combined company at about $1.2 billion.\nMany investors have been overwhelmed by the number of SPAC deals in the electric-vehicle space over the last year, and some have soured on the space now that a couple of last year's darlings have turned out to be, well, less than they seemed.But if you still believe that electric vehicles are the future (I do), Solid Power is worth a close look. It's a company with real potential, with some big customers ready and waiting for its products, and with technology that's much closer to mass production than that of its most prominent rivals.\nWhat is Solid Power\nColorado-based Solid Power, founded in 2012, is one of several companies working to develop so-called solid-state batteries, which omit the liquid electrolyte used in the lithium-ion batteries that power most electric vehicles today. (Among the others:QuantumScape(NYSE:QS), which drew lots of attention from investors after it went public via its own SPAC deal late last year.)\nSolid-state batteries have the potential to offer greater energy density than lithium-ion batteries with less weight, but a design that can be mass-produced at a reasonable cost has eluded researchers for years.\nThat may soon change.\nWhat makes this a big deal\nFirst and foremost, Solid Power appears to be closer to mass production than its rivals. Most solid-state battery efforts are at least a few years away from production. QuantumScape, for example, ishopingtobegin pilot production of its batteriesin about three years. But Solid Power is already producing its second-generation 20 ampere-hour (Ah) battery cells on a pilot production line, and it expects to begin pilot production of its full-scale 100 Ah batteries next year.\nSecond -- again, unlike most competitors -- Solid Power's solid-state battery cells can be manufactured with equipment and processes adapted from lithium-ion battery manufacturing, meaning that existing battery plants can be converted to build Solid Power's cells at relatively low cost.\nFinally, as I mentioned above, bothFord and BMW are investors in Solid Power. Both participated in the company's most recent funding round earlier this year, both expect to receive batches of those 100 Ah cells for testing in their own electric vehicles next year, and assuming those tests go well, both will be early customers for the company's mass-produced cells.\nWhat are the terms of the Solid Power SPAC deal\nSolid Power's deal to merge with Decarbonization Plus III follows the pattern of other SPAC deals we've seen in the electric vehicle space over the past year, in that it includes a PIPE (for \"private investment in public equity\") that allows big investors to buy stock in the merged company at an agreed-upon price, adding extra cash to the deal.\nHere are the key points of the deal:\n\nDecarbonization Plus III is contributing the cash it holds in trust, about $350 million.\nThe PIPE will bring another $165 million from investors includingRiverstone Energy, Koch Industries' venture-capital fund, and funds advised by Neuberger Berman and VanEck Global.\nTogether with the $135 million that Solid Power raised in its Series B round last month, the post-merger company will have about $650 million in cash.\nThe merged company will retain the Solid Power name and will trade on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the ticker symbol \"SLDP.\"\nThe deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2021.\n\nWhat are the risks if I buy DCRC now\nAs with any SPAC deal involving a company that hasn't yet brought its product to market, there are risks investors should keep in mind:\n\nIt's possible that the deal won't close, or that it'll close later than scheduled.\nIt's possible that the company's technology won't pan out, or that it goes into production later than expected. Investors who are used to tech start-up time frames should note that the pace of progress in the battery space isglacialby comparison. Solid Power has been working on its batteries since 2012, QuantumScape since 2010.\nIt's possible that one or more competitors will beat Solid Power to market, taking significant share.\nIt's possible that we'll learn things about Solid Power that make it a less attractive investment. (I have no reason to think this will happen, but all SPAC investors should be mindful of the examples ofNikolaandLordstown Motors, both of which made important claims that werelater foundtohave been exaggerated.)\n\nIs DCRC a buy\nI'm not sure yet, but right now I'm leaning toward \"yes.\" Solid Power's technology is very promising, and executives at Ford think highly of the company's technology and leadership team. As with any battery start-up, the question is when (and whether) the company can bring its batteries to market -- but I think Solid Power will still have good growth potential even if production slips by a year or two.\nThat said, I'm still working through all of the company's investor materials, and I expect to have more thoughts on Solid Power's valuation and growth potential in a few days. Stay tuned.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169851587,"gmtCreate":1623829481249,"gmtModify":1703820716674,"author":{"id":"3574523682370819","authorId":"3574523682370819","name":"flippz123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574523682370819","authorIdStr":"3574523682370819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hes","listText":"Hes","text":"Hes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169851587","repostId":"1182315358","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182315358","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623814338,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182315358?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 11:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"It’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182315358","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.\nIt takes brains and brawn","content":"<p>If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/724d1ea0bb18bddb367c79abf08c1af9\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"841\"><span>It takes brains and brawn to be an investor these days. (Photo by Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p>\n<p>I don’t know when what I call the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market will end.</p>\n<p>After 12 years being long and strong and having diamond hands without even knowing that term existed, maybe I’m wrong to turn more cautious.</p>\n<p>Maybe the economy will reopen and rejuvenate the country in such a strong manner that corporate earnings in 2022 and 2023 will make today’s prices seem like bargains.</p>\n<p>But I simply don’t think that’s the most likely outcome.</p>\n<p>And if I’m right that we’re in the throes of the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market, I do not want to be overly long and on the wrong side of the great unwind when it does start.</p>\n<p>I’m not calling for a near-term crash. I am saying that it’s likely going to be hard for the bulls to make as much money this year as they did last year.</p>\n<p>Trading and investing are tough. There’s always someone on the other side of every trade you make. Always think about who that is and why they are willing to take the other side of your transaction. When you buy, why are they selling it to you at that price? When you sell, who is buying it from you and what are their motivations? Remember, I’ve talked before about how&nbsp;good analysis starts with empathy.</p>\n<p><b>If I’m selling, who’s buying — and why?</b></p>\n<p>So let’s answer this question right now. Who is buying stocks and cryptos from me when I’ve trimmed and sold for the past month or so? Sure, there are banks and institutions and hedge funds and family offices investing and trading, just as always. On the other hand, remember two years ago when I got back from a hedge fund investment conference&nbsp;in Abu Dhabi and everybody was desperate for returns:</p>\n<p>Amid low interest rates and other investors’ focus on options, credit and currencies, “the lack of focus on traditional stocks and funds that invest in publicly traded stocks makes me think that there is probably more opportunity in such assets than people realize. I certainly see some very compelling long ideas in Revolutionary companies like WORK and TWTR and TSLA.”</p>\n<p>Since that post, back a year and a half ago, Slack&nbsp;went from $21 to being bought out at $45, Twitter&nbsp;went from $27 to $61, and Tesla&nbsp;went from $81 to $616. And funds that were looking everywhere but in the stock market for big gains are … well, pretty much in the markets now and long a bunch of stocks and even long a few cryptos.</p>\n<p>And now that those stocks and cryptos and most other assets have gone parabolic in the past year — coming on top of the 10-year bull market — the billion-dollar fund managers are joined by&nbsp;23-year-old TikTok influencers&nbsp;doing bitcoin&nbsp;trading astrology.</p>\n<p>Yes, for real, and she’s very popular. She’s even been right about some of bitcoin’s action in the past few months! If you’re selling cryptos and fintech stocks right now, you’re selling to her and her followers. And also to my friend’s son, who just graduated from a tiny, rural school and whose unemployed uncle gave him $500 to “buy some cryptos. And make sure you get some fintech. I don’t know the symbol, but just look it up and you’ll do fine over the long run.”&nbsp;Bearish anecdotes everywhere I look, as I wrote recently.</p>\n<p><b>Mr. Market</b></p>\n<p>The other thing to remember about who’s on the other side of your trade is always to remember that there are smart, cutthroat traders and investors who went to the best schools and have access to more research and real-time data and instant trading access to all kinds of derivatives to layer into their bets. And the only thing they do all day, every day, is figure out how to take your money in mostly legal ways. They’re not playing around. They have no sympathy for you, even if they might empathize with you to better understand your motivations to better take your money.</p>\n<p>Mr. Market is mean. He’s not nice. He can be cruel. He can force liquidations that create other liquidations. He can shut off access to capital. He can take down 200-year-old banks in a day. In one day.</p>\n<p>Sometimes the markets lead the economy and not the other way around. Ironically, when we were young, we were taught that the Great Depression started when the stock market crashed on Black Friday in 1929. But then when we get older, we were taught that it wasn’t actually the crash that created the Great Depression, rather the economy was already crashing and the stock market just didn’t realize it as it continued on its merry way toward a terrible Blow-Off Top of a nine-year Bubble-Blowing Bull Market that culminated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;up 400% from the 1921 lows to the 1929 highs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a6516337aacc614d83584ea90e174f2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"870\"></p>\n<p><b>Learning from Soros</b></p>\n<p>But looking back, it’s clear that both theories are equally right and wrong — the market crashed because the economy wasn’t as good as the market thought it was,<i>and</i>the economy crashed because the markets shut down access to capital for investment and growth.</p>\n<p>It was “reflexive,” to borrow a term from the great hedge fund manager&nbsp;George Soros.</p>\n<p>He wrote, and the concept is important to understand:</p>\n<p>“I continued to consider myself a failed philosopher. All this changed as a result of the financial crisis of 2008. My conceptual framework enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck…</p>\n<p>“I can state the core idea in two relatively simple propositions. One is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ view of the world is always partial and distorted. That is the principle of fallibility. The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate because false views lead to inappropriate actions. That is the principle of reflexivity…</p>\n<p>“Recognizing reflexivity has been sacrificed to the vain pursuit of certainty in human affairs, most notably in economics, and yet, uncertainty is the key feature of human affairs. Economic theory is built on the concept of equilibrium, and that concept is in direct contradiction with the concept of reflexivity…</p>\n<p>“A positive feedback process is self-reinforcing. It cannot go on forever because eventually the participants’ views would become so far removed from objective reality that the participants would have to recognize them as unrealistic. Nor can the iterative process occur without any change in the actual state of affairs, because it is in the nature of positive feedback that it reinforces whatever tendency prevails in the real world. Instead of equilibrium, we are faced with a dynamic disequilibrium or what may be described as far-from-equilibrium conditions. Usually in far-from-equilibrium situations the divergence between perceptions and reality leads to a climax which sets in motion a positive feedback process in the opposite direction. Such initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating boom-bust processes or bubbles are characteristic of financial markets, but they can also be found in other spheres. There, I call them fertile fallacies—interpretations of reality that are distorted, yet produce results which reinforce the distortion.”</p>\n<p>Stay flexible</p>\n<p>Far-from-equilibrium conditions was what we had in 2010-2013 when we loaded up on Revolutionary stocks and started buying cryptos like bitcoin. Far-from-equilibrium conditions might be what we have in front of us right now when I suggest getting cautious instead.</p>\n<p>We don’t want to be permabulls. (You for sure don’t want to be a permabear!) We have to be flexible. We have to let our analysis and risk/reward scenarios dictate how much risk we’re taking and when. We have to pay attention to the cycles, the self-reinforcing cycles that drive economies and markets and valuations and earnings and societal interactions and bailouts and financial crises and bubbles and busts and, heaven forbid, just simple stagnation.</p>\n<p>It’s as if everybody forgets that markets can bubble and crash and stagnate. They forget that markets can grind for years on end without making new highs, or without even making higher highs. Do you not remember telling your money manager sometime in 2010-2012 that “If I’d just handled the Great Financial Crisis (and/or the Dot-Com Crash) a little better, I’d be in better shape.” I used to hear people say that to me all the time. I haven’t heard anybody say that lately. Everybody’s having fun in this market … at least for now.</p>\n<p>Most traders will tell you that they are “just trading the market that is in front of them.” Well, I don’t know when the bubble will pop, but I do know that I don’t want to be on the wrong side of this market when it does. And I do know that we won’t know the bubble has really popped until the self-reinforcing reflexive feedback loop has made it painful for the vast majority of people who are right now feeling wealthy, feeling secure, feeling like they’ve got this trading and investing thing all figured out.</p>\n<p>We are all fallible. Be careful while it’s fun. Be bold when it’s painful. That’s how I’ve done it for the last 25 years. We were boldly buying these assets when it was painful for others. I’m careful right now because everybody else is having fun.</p>\n<p>I spend a lot of time looking for new ideas and I won’t let my overall market outlook deter me from buying a new name or two. But I want to remain overall cautious and less aggressive than I have been for most of the last decade.</p>\n<p>As a matter of fact,&nbsp;I might have at least a couple Trade Alerts that I’ll be sending out this week, one long and one short idea. Being flexible, see?</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 11:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-be-smart-like-soros-in-the-blow-off-stage-of-the-bull-market-in-stocks-11623788897?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.\nIt takes brains and brawn to be an investor these days. (Photo by Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images)\nI don’t know when what...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-be-smart-like-soros-in-the-blow-off-stage-of-the-bull-market-in-stocks-11623788897?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-be-smart-like-soros-in-the-blow-off-stage-of-the-bull-market-in-stocks-11623788897?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182315358","content_text":"If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.\nIt takes brains and brawn to be an investor these days. (Photo by Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images)\nI don’t know when what I call the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market will end.\nAfter 12 years being long and strong and having diamond hands without even knowing that term existed, maybe I’m wrong to turn more cautious.\nMaybe the economy will reopen and rejuvenate the country in such a strong manner that corporate earnings in 2022 and 2023 will make today’s prices seem like bargains.\nBut I simply don’t think that’s the most likely outcome.\nAnd if I’m right that we’re in the throes of the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market, I do not want to be overly long and on the wrong side of the great unwind when it does start.\nI’m not calling for a near-term crash. I am saying that it’s likely going to be hard for the bulls to make as much money this year as they did last year.\nTrading and investing are tough. There’s always someone on the other side of every trade you make. Always think about who that is and why they are willing to take the other side of your transaction. When you buy, why are they selling it to you at that price? When you sell, who is buying it from you and what are their motivations? Remember, I’ve talked before about how good analysis starts with empathy.\nIf I’m selling, who’s buying — and why?\nSo let’s answer this question right now. Who is buying stocks and cryptos from me when I’ve trimmed and sold for the past month or so? Sure, there are banks and institutions and hedge funds and family offices investing and trading, just as always. On the other hand, remember two years ago when I got back from a hedge fund investment conference in Abu Dhabi and everybody was desperate for returns:\nAmid low interest rates and other investors’ focus on options, credit and currencies, “the lack of focus on traditional stocks and funds that invest in publicly traded stocks makes me think that there is probably more opportunity in such assets than people realize. I certainly see some very compelling long ideas in Revolutionary companies like WORK and TWTR and TSLA.”\nSince that post, back a year and a half ago, Slack went from $21 to being bought out at $45, Twitter went from $27 to $61, and Tesla went from $81 to $616. And funds that were looking everywhere but in the stock market for big gains are … well, pretty much in the markets now and long a bunch of stocks and even long a few cryptos.\nAnd now that those stocks and cryptos and most other assets have gone parabolic in the past year — coming on top of the 10-year bull market — the billion-dollar fund managers are joined by 23-year-old TikTok influencers doing bitcoin trading astrology.\nYes, for real, and she’s very popular. She’s even been right about some of bitcoin’s action in the past few months! If you’re selling cryptos and fintech stocks right now, you’re selling to her and her followers. And also to my friend’s son, who just graduated from a tiny, rural school and whose unemployed uncle gave him $500 to “buy some cryptos. And make sure you get some fintech. I don’t know the symbol, but just look it up and you’ll do fine over the long run.” Bearish anecdotes everywhere I look, as I wrote recently.\nMr. Market\nThe other thing to remember about who’s on the other side of your trade is always to remember that there are smart, cutthroat traders and investors who went to the best schools and have access to more research and real-time data and instant trading access to all kinds of derivatives to layer into their bets. And the only thing they do all day, every day, is figure out how to take your money in mostly legal ways. They’re not playing around. They have no sympathy for you, even if they might empathize with you to better understand your motivations to better take your money.\nMr. Market is mean. He’s not nice. He can be cruel. He can force liquidations that create other liquidations. He can shut off access to capital. He can take down 200-year-old banks in a day. In one day.\nSometimes the markets lead the economy and not the other way around. Ironically, when we were young, we were taught that the Great Depression started when the stock market crashed on Black Friday in 1929. But then when we get older, we were taught that it wasn’t actually the crash that created the Great Depression, rather the economy was already crashing and the stock market just didn’t realize it as it continued on its merry way toward a terrible Blow-Off Top of a nine-year Bubble-Blowing Bull Market that culminated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 400% from the 1921 lows to the 1929 highs.\n\nLearning from Soros\nBut looking back, it’s clear that both theories are equally right and wrong — the market crashed because the economy wasn’t as good as the market thought it was,andthe economy crashed because the markets shut down access to capital for investment and growth.\nIt was “reflexive,” to borrow a term from the great hedge fund manager George Soros.\nHe wrote, and the concept is important to understand:\n“I continued to consider myself a failed philosopher. All this changed as a result of the financial crisis of 2008. My conceptual framework enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck…\n“I can state the core idea in two relatively simple propositions. One is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ view of the world is always partial and distorted. That is the principle of fallibility. The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate because false views lead to inappropriate actions. That is the principle of reflexivity…\n“Recognizing reflexivity has been sacrificed to the vain pursuit of certainty in human affairs, most notably in economics, and yet, uncertainty is the key feature of human affairs. Economic theory is built on the concept of equilibrium, and that concept is in direct contradiction with the concept of reflexivity…\n“A positive feedback process is self-reinforcing. It cannot go on forever because eventually the participants’ views would become so far removed from objective reality that the participants would have to recognize them as unrealistic. Nor can the iterative process occur without any change in the actual state of affairs, because it is in the nature of positive feedback that it reinforces whatever tendency prevails in the real world. Instead of equilibrium, we are faced with a dynamic disequilibrium or what may be described as far-from-equilibrium conditions. Usually in far-from-equilibrium situations the divergence between perceptions and reality leads to a climax which sets in motion a positive feedback process in the opposite direction. Such initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating boom-bust processes or bubbles are characteristic of financial markets, but they can also be found in other spheres. There, I call them fertile fallacies—interpretations of reality that are distorted, yet produce results which reinforce the distortion.”\nStay flexible\nFar-from-equilibrium conditions was what we had in 2010-2013 when we loaded up on Revolutionary stocks and started buying cryptos like bitcoin. Far-from-equilibrium conditions might be what we have in front of us right now when I suggest getting cautious instead.\nWe don’t want to be permabulls. (You for sure don’t want to be a permabear!) We have to be flexible. We have to let our analysis and risk/reward scenarios dictate how much risk we’re taking and when. We have to pay attention to the cycles, the self-reinforcing cycles that drive economies and markets and valuations and earnings and societal interactions and bailouts and financial crises and bubbles and busts and, heaven forbid, just simple stagnation.\nIt’s as if everybody forgets that markets can bubble and crash and stagnate. They forget that markets can grind for years on end without making new highs, or without even making higher highs. Do you not remember telling your money manager sometime in 2010-2012 that “If I’d just handled the Great Financial Crisis (and/or the Dot-Com Crash) a little better, I’d be in better shape.” I used to hear people say that to me all the time. I haven’t heard anybody say that lately. Everybody’s having fun in this market … at least for now.\nMost traders will tell you that they are “just trading the market that is in front of them.” Well, I don’t know when the bubble will pop, but I do know that I don’t want to be on the wrong side of this market when it does. And I do know that we won’t know the bubble has really popped until the self-reinforcing reflexive feedback loop has made it painful for the vast majority of people who are right now feeling wealthy, feeling secure, feeling like they’ve got this trading and investing thing all figured out.\nWe are all fallible. Be careful while it’s fun. Be bold when it’s painful. That’s how I’ve done it for the last 25 years. We were boldly buying these assets when it was painful for others. I’m careful right now because everybody else is having fun.\nI spend a lot of time looking for new ideas and I won’t let my overall market outlook deter me from buying a new name or two. But I want to remain overall cautious and less aggressive than I have been for most of the last decade.\nAs a matter of fact, I might have at least a couple Trade Alerts that I’ll be sending out this week, one long and one short idea. Being flexible, see?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169850261,"gmtCreate":1623829282353,"gmtModify":1703820712113,"author":{"id":"3574523682370819","authorId":"3574523682370819","name":"flippz123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574523682370819","authorIdStr":"3574523682370819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169850261","repostId":"1179963706","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179963706","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623828183,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179963706?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 15:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Virgin Galactic Stock a Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179963706","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These shares aren't for the faint of heart.","content":"<p>The space industry is a high-potential, high-risk investment opportunity for investors willing to take the leap into some volatility.&nbsp;In the last year alone, the stock of&nbsp;<b>Virgin Galactic Holdings</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:SPCE)&nbsp;has jumped 300%,then fallen 75%, and more than&nbsp;doubled from recent lows. Investors who have held on for the ride have done well, but it hasn't been easy.</p>\n<p>More than even the highest flying&nbsp;growth stocks&nbsp;on the market, this is a boom-and-bust kind of investment right now. If Virgin Galactic succeeds, it could reshape the way we think about space. But if it fails, the company could end in disaster. Right now, I think it's worth the risk.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2bd0b3467fea65d95ded6ecb659b938\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1334\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: VIRGIN GALACTIC.</span></p>\n<p><b>What fundamentals?</b></p>\n<p>Before we get too far into Virgin Galactic's opportunities, it's important to point out that this is a pre-revenue company. It is burning cash in anticipation of generating revenue from research and from customer tickets for a quick trip into space, but it hasn't launched commercially yet.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51fd6129b14f307e5702187274edae41\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"435\"><span>SPCE REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS. TTM = TRAILING 12 MONTHS.</span></p>\n<p>Being a pre-revenue company isn't bad, but it shows just how early it is in its development.</p>\n<p><b>Building a new market in space</b></p>\n<p>The bullish case for Virgin Galactic is that it'll redefine how we think about space. For as little as $250,000, anyone can travel into space once commercial flights begin. That sounds like a lot of money, but think about how unattainable space seemed only a decade or two ago. Now, it just takes a big checkbook to get there. The flight is only a few minutes long, but it's a once-in-a-lifetime experience that has already attracted over 600 reservations.</p>\n<p>Management thinks that when operations are fully ramped up, a spaceport like the company has built in New Mexico will be able to generate $1 billion per year in revenue. Build a few spaceports around the world, and suddenly valuing the company at $8.7 billion (its market capitalization today) doesn't seem so crazy.</p>\n<p><b>High-speed travel is next</b></p>\n<p>In development is a Mach 3 aircraft that could take high-speed travel to a new level. While the current spacecraft being tested is meant for tourism, a Mach 3 aircraft could make global travel more efficient, reducing the flight&nbsp;from Los Angeles to Tokyo from 12 hours to three to four hours. And with a capacity of 9 to 19 seats, it would seem more like a flight on a private jet than the failed Concorde, which had a capacity of 92 to 128 passengers.</p>\n<p>We don't know if space tourism or mach-speed travel will succeed but imagine if they do. If thousands of people fly into space each year and it's commonplace to see videos of celebrities or wealthy people in a weightless atmosphere, it has the potential to shape how we view space tourism. At the same time, Virgin Galactic's design of reusable rockets could allow it to reduce costs to make space tourism possible to those willing to spend around $100,000 on a ticket. And that could truly change how we view space. That's the kind of disruption that would drive big gains for investors.</p>\n<p><b>Virgin Galactic is a buy, with risks</b></p>\n<p>The investment thesis for Virgin Galactic is pretty simple: Virgin Galactic could disrupt the way we think about visiting space and Mach-speed travel. Management thinks it can complete 400 space flights per year, generating $1 billion in revenue per spaceport, with the potential to build dozens of spaceports around the world. Long-term, the spaceports could also house mach-speed aircraft. If Virgin Galactic succeeds, the company could open up multibillion-dollar markets that don't exist today.</p>\n<p>As big as the opportunity is, the risks are hefty as well. A failure in testing or product development could sink the company. Today, I think the reward outweighs the risk, and a decade or two from now we'll all know of someone who has visited space. That potential shift in how we think about the universe around us makes this a company I'm excited to own, and follow, into the future.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Virgin Galactic Stock a Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Virgin Galactic Stock a Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 15:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/is-virgin-galactic-stock-a-buy/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The space industry is a high-potential, high-risk investment opportunity for investors willing to take the leap into some volatility. In the last year alone, the stock of Virgin Galactic Holdings (...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/is-virgin-galactic-stock-a-buy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/is-virgin-galactic-stock-a-buy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179963706","content_text":"The space industry is a high-potential, high-risk investment opportunity for investors willing to take the leap into some volatility. In the last year alone, the stock of Virgin Galactic Holdings (NYSE:SPCE) has jumped 300%,then fallen 75%, and more than doubled from recent lows. Investors who have held on for the ride have done well, but it hasn't been easy.\nMore than even the highest flying growth stocks on the market, this is a boom-and-bust kind of investment right now. If Virgin Galactic succeeds, it could reshape the way we think about space. But if it fails, the company could end in disaster. Right now, I think it's worth the risk.\nIMAGE SOURCE: VIRGIN GALACTIC.\nWhat fundamentals?\nBefore we get too far into Virgin Galactic's opportunities, it's important to point out that this is a pre-revenue company. It is burning cash in anticipation of generating revenue from research and from customer tickets for a quick trip into space, but it hasn't launched commercially yet.\nSPCE REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS. TTM = TRAILING 12 MONTHS.\nBeing a pre-revenue company isn't bad, but it shows just how early it is in its development.\nBuilding a new market in space\nThe bullish case for Virgin Galactic is that it'll redefine how we think about space. For as little as $250,000, anyone can travel into space once commercial flights begin. That sounds like a lot of money, but think about how unattainable space seemed only a decade or two ago. Now, it just takes a big checkbook to get there. The flight is only a few minutes long, but it's a once-in-a-lifetime experience that has already attracted over 600 reservations.\nManagement thinks that when operations are fully ramped up, a spaceport like the company has built in New Mexico will be able to generate $1 billion per year in revenue. Build a few spaceports around the world, and suddenly valuing the company at $8.7 billion (its market capitalization today) doesn't seem so crazy.\nHigh-speed travel is next\nIn development is a Mach 3 aircraft that could take high-speed travel to a new level. While the current spacecraft being tested is meant for tourism, a Mach 3 aircraft could make global travel more efficient, reducing the flight from Los Angeles to Tokyo from 12 hours to three to four hours. And with a capacity of 9 to 19 seats, it would seem more like a flight on a private jet than the failed Concorde, which had a capacity of 92 to 128 passengers.\nWe don't know if space tourism or mach-speed travel will succeed but imagine if they do. If thousands of people fly into space each year and it's commonplace to see videos of celebrities or wealthy people in a weightless atmosphere, it has the potential to shape how we view space tourism. At the same time, Virgin Galactic's design of reusable rockets could allow it to reduce costs to make space tourism possible to those willing to spend around $100,000 on a ticket. And that could truly change how we view space. That's the kind of disruption that would drive big gains for investors.\nVirgin Galactic is a buy, with risks\nThe investment thesis for Virgin Galactic is pretty simple: Virgin Galactic could disrupt the way we think about visiting space and Mach-speed travel. Management thinks it can complete 400 space flights per year, generating $1 billion in revenue per spaceport, with the potential to build dozens of spaceports around the world. Long-term, the spaceports could also house mach-speed aircraft. If Virgin Galactic succeeds, the company could open up multibillion-dollar markets that don't exist today.\nAs big as the opportunity is, the risks are hefty as well. A failure in testing or product development could sink the company. Today, I think the reward outweighs the risk, and a decade or two from now we'll all know of someone who has visited space. That potential shift in how we think about the universe around us makes this a company I'm excited to own, and follow, into the future.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169850606,"gmtCreate":1623829271305,"gmtModify":1703820711789,"author":{"id":"3574523682370819","authorId":"3574523682370819","name":"flippz123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574523682370819","authorIdStr":"3574523682370819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":":(","listText":":(","text":":(","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169850606","repostId":"1145814445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169824422,"gmtCreate":1623829173566,"gmtModify":1703820709165,"author":{"id":"3574523682370819","authorId":"3574523682370819","name":"flippz123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574523682370819","authorIdStr":"3574523682370819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169824422","repostId":"2143762945","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187409522,"gmtCreate":1623760793166,"gmtModify":1703818418755,"author":{"id":"3574523682370819","authorId":"3574523682370819","name":"flippz123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574523682370819","authorIdStr":"3574523682370819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187409522","repostId":"1193778475","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193778475","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623749978,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193778475?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 17:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix: The Selloff Looks Overdone","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193778475","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNetflix has been unreasonably sold down and unjustifiably cited as losing its competitive e","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Netflix has been unreasonably sold down and unjustifiably cited as losing its competitive edge due to weaker Q1’21 membership adds.</li>\n <li>However, short-sighted investors did not consider Netflix’s overall game to evaluate the strength of its moat.</li>\n <li>Netflix looks attractively-priced now, and should be a worthy addition to both value and growth investors.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Netflix (NFLX) has come under the weather recently, as the company had to face increased competitive pressure from the growth of Disney+, recent industry consolidation fromWarner Bros. Discovery(T,DISCA) and Amazon's (AMZN)acquisition of MGM's deep content IP. Furthermore, the company also reported an\"underwhelming\" Q1'21results that saw the company even missing its own net membership adds estimates by 2m. In short, there seems to be no shortage of bad news for NFLX recently.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d9e43b35cbdb0cbc2330837c796371\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: TradingView</p>\n<p>Therefore, it's not surprising to me at all that Mr. Market reacted somewhat negatively to all these competitive headwinds as NFLX remains about 18% off its January high, while QQQ is withintouching distance of its all time high. As a price-action, momentum based investor, seeing a stock that has demonstrated strong medium term and long term uptrend bias is of paramount importance to me and NFLX certainly checks all of that from this perspective. Although there are other growth stocks that have demonstrated a better uptrend bias profile, NFLX is not a slouch either. It has only lost its medium term 50W MA dynamic support only twice in the last 5 years: 2018 bear market decline of 45%, and Jul-Sep 19 decline of 35%. Even though the stock momentarily lost its 50W support level then, NFLX quickly regained its medium term support level, and during the COVID-19 bear market, NFLX never lost support of its medium term uptrend. Therefore, the 50W MA has proven to be a consistently strong medium term dynamic support level for NFLX over the last 5 years.</p>\n<p>NFLX's price has now approached its 50W support level again thanks to the weak market sentiments lately which makes it appropriate to discuss whether NFLX represents a good buying opportunity now for long term investors.</p>\n<p><b>So What Happened to Netflix's Paid Adds?</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d1ce1d66e99396f67725dcfdaf3db8\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Average Paying Membership by Region. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ca327a13d9645fce263565653d4e390\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Average Paying Membership YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p>As we could observe clearly from the charts above, the market reacted negatively to NFLX's Q1'21 results, sending the stock down 8.21% the day after the release. It added just 3.98M net paid members in Q1'21, which was significantly weaker than the previous quarters as can be seen from its YoY Growth. The management mainly attributed this to the strong pull forward growth in membership during Q1'20 that has somewhat skewed the base upwards and may have disproportionately affected its growth in Q1'21. Although I think there is a reasonable basis for that line of argument, however we did not observe such a drastic decline in Roku, Inc. (ROKU) in its active accounts in Q1'21 (see charts below).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e96b19f4b3eef87be93ecce3953a19\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Roku Active Accounts. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f4053e2022d4c90e8b8ec51c1fc295\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Roku Active Accounts YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p>We could clearly observe Roku's Active accounts YoY growth of 34.7% in Q1'21 to be still largely in line with 2019's growth even though Roku also experienced pull forward growth from COVID-19 last year. Therefore, I think there is a reasonable basis to infer that NFLX's paid adds growth seemed to have slowed down pretty dramatically even though it should be noted that NFLX's net paid membership of 208M significantly outnumbered Roku's 53.6M active accounts and that was not a small difference.</p>\n<p>Now, if you are a short term trader or an \"investor\" with a horizon of 1 quarter, then perhaps it may be a reasonable basis to get out of the stock. However, for long term investors, many of whom NFLX has handsomely rewarded over the last ten years, we need to dig deeper to investigate whether there has been a significant change in its long term competitive moat from the latest quarter's aberration that may significantly change NFLX's ability to compete effectively and weaken the competitive dynamics of its business model.</p>\n<p><b>Revenue Growth Looks Good</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8c6ed8cb94d2134ca5d0d79660ece07\" tg-width=\"1184\" tg-height=\"732\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Revenue by Region. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ee95424dd68c5abe3591347f9dd9fad\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Revenue by Region YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p>First up, let's take a look at its revenue by region performance. We could observe clearly that the company's most important revenue drivers: UCAN and EMEA had YoY revenue growth of 17.3% and 36% in Q1'21, respectively, as compared to 19.8% and 39.7% in Q1'20, respectively. Sure, there was a slight blip in its YoY growth rate in Q1'21, but it was still very much in line with Q4'20 YoY numbers (which Mr. Market cheered by pushing the stock up 17.74% the day after earnings release), so it was nothing too significant that warranted a serious look into its competitiveness. Moreover, its fastest growing region: APAC also looked to have performed well with a 57.6% YoY growth rate that was even better than Q1'20's YoY growth rate of 51.3%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/298a4247dfc847726b87f80e24cc874f\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>ARPU by Region. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce59d0df25c1a8b2fde74a772c918433\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>ARPU by Region YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p>NFLX also performed admirably well in its ARPU. ARPU was up in all the regions except for LATAM where the growth was flat on a QoQ basis. Although ARPU growth was quite volatile between quarters, ARPU in UCAN, EMEA and APAC went up by 8.4%, 11.5% and 9% in Q1'21, respectively. Even though LATAM's ARPU was down YoY, but on a QoQ basis it was flat, so there was nothing materially serious to take note here. Therefore, NFLX's ARPU performance looked really good in Q1'21.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bee3698456324209ed6c9cf58bed58da\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"995\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Timeline of NFLX Price Hikes. Source:Variety</p>\n<p>If NFLX had faced intense competitive pressure in the past that forced it into a price war with competing platforms as it acquired more users, we would have seen the company forced to reduce its prices over time. On the contrary, NFLX has been increasing its prices steadily over time, with the latest round of price hikes on October 20. Even though there were some knee-jerk cancellations from some subscribers in the short term over the price hikes, over the long term it has never affected the company's ability to attract more users. This shows NFLX's strong competitive moat that gives it a huge ability to raise prices over time without losing its subscribers. In fact,NFLX well encapsulatedits strong ability to retain its subscribers despite the price hikes:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Our churn is actually below pre-price change levels already in the U.S. and in most of the markets and where we have adjusted prices and just some of the newer ones haven't come all the way back down, but they're rapidly getting there.\n</blockquote>\n<p>These well-planned price increases are extremely beneficial to NFLX's topline, given NFLX's growing subscriber base as the recent price increase is expected toadd $500Mto NFLX's revenue in FY 21 (consensus: $29.72B). Even though it's not a significant sum as compared to the revenue base, however more importantly it demonstrated clearly that NFLX has considerable pricing power in a highly competitive SVOD segment.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42059a78e3a3f7dc656556dc27761343\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"958\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Top Reasons for Video Streaming Subscription Cancellations. Source:Variety</p>\n<p>When we consider that the single most important reason for subscribers to cancel their streaming subscriptions is: \"If the subscription price increased\", then investors should now be able to really understand how Mr. Market has significantly underestimated NFLX's pricing power, which is extremely important to NFLX's business model to introduce more and more high quality content as its subscriber base gets larger over time.</p>\n<p>If we revisit NFLX's ARPU by region again, we could certainly see a generally healthy trend of ARPU over time even as the company increased its prices. It's important to note that increasing subscriptions prices is the primary way for it to further monetize its growing user base (although the company has also recently introduced more monetization methods such asNetflix shop, as well as thegaming market, so investors are highly encouraged to continue monitoring these developments). The price increases will help to bolster the consistency of the ARPU such that it would help with times when the company has found some difficulty in adding more users such as in Q1'21, while YoY revenue growth was still very healthy.</p>\n<p>Investors should take note that NFLX's growing membership base of 208M paying members is a formidable moat for it to keep producing its slate of high quality original content.</p>\n<p>Strong Content Pipeline</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02eea9bd487d52b352dd3894f2563edf\" tg-width=\"1043\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Content Assets. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a49a1facb41f2c4e848cced7724c68d\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Produced Content YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p>NFLX has been growing its original content base rapidly over the last few years, although the COVID-19 crisis has somewhat slowed down its growth. Thecompany emphasized:</p>\n<blockquote>\n [W]e think we'll get back to a much steadier state in the back half of the year and certainly in Q4, where we've got the returning seasons of some of our most popular shows like The Witcher and You and Cobra Kai as well as some big tempo movies that came to market a little slower than we'd hoped, like Red Notes with The Rock and Ryan Reynolds and Gaga, and Escape From Spiderhead with Chris Hemsworth, big event content.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Therefore, the company is not resting on its laurels and would keep on its record of producing high quality content to keep engagement at a high level with its viewers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4aaf52a7c9c18a4fc5664c9000282d1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"781\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Ranking of original streaming series titles in the U.S. Data Source: Nielsen, Media Play News</p>\n<p>In this survey conducted in early May, NFLX's slate of original series took home 7 out of the top 10 slots for the most watched series, demonstrating the high quality and appeal of its content with viewers. In fact, there were many other surveys that also showed Netflix's dominance in viewership over time.</p>\n<p>Netflix's original content didn't just dominate hours watched, but also award nominations. The company highlighted its recent achievements:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Netflix led all studios for recent award nominations including the Oscars, Golden Globes, SAG Awards, BAFTA and the NAACP Image Awards, among others. Heading into the Academy Awards this weekend, we have 36 nominations across 17 films including two nominees in each of the Best Picture (Mank, The Trial of the Chicago 7), Best Documentary Feature (Crip Camp, My Octopus Teacher), and Best Animated Feature (Over the Moon, A Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon) categories. Mank led all films with 10 nominations.\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a756085b63c0d9b1e40d39f3fd21609\" tg-width=\"764\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Reasons for subscribing to SVOD services in the U.S. Data Source: Vorhaus Advisors</p>\n<p>As we could observe from the above, high quality original series (35%) and specific TV series or movies (43%) ranked very highly on the reasons for subscribing to SVOD services, and investors can rest assured that NFLX is certainly leading in these areas.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afa2be3ca5cfa415aee98a9c45f8e6c9\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Share of SVOD subscribers, who also subscribe to other services. Data Source: Reelgood</p>\n<p>In the SVOD space, we could clearly observe NFLX's importance to subscribers even if they subscribed to other services, which definitely helps to downplay the significance of increasing competitive threats to NFLX. In fact, NFLX was the most important service among these subscribers as the subscribers of the company's competitors also subscribed to NFLX: Peacock Premium (90%), HBO Max (90%), Amazon Prime (84%), Disney+ (87%), Hulu (85%) and Apple TV+ (92%), demonstrating clearly the importance and dominance of NFLX to its competitors' subscribers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2c1e2c429e015e113242ffeac4d3f07\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Netflix Video Content Budget. Data Source: eMarketer</p>\n<p>Many critics also pointed to NFLX's increasing need to dedicate huge amounts of investments to drive its engagement levels, protect its moat, grow its revenue. In fact, I think unless NFLX is working on a model like Roku, whose business model I havediscussed recently here, having a high quality slate of original content is important in order to maintain its competitive edge, especially when we have witnessed a series of industry consolidation where NFLX may lose more and more access to high quality licensed content, so NFLX's committed investments in original content a few years ago led by Co-CEO Ted Sarandos has certainly been a masterstroke that has helped maintain the company's competitive edge. In addition, NFLX has been getting more and more efficient in producing original content over time, certainly helped by the large and growing paying membership base, which as I mentioned in itself is a strong moat.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e592ee98fcd2477f5e9332e664c74afa\" tg-width=\"1153\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Other Operating Activities [LTM] as a % of Revenue [LTM]. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p>\n<p>NFLX's other operating activities segment mainly include the company's investments in content assets which are classified as a cash outflow in the company's Cash from Operations [CFO]. If we observed clearly, despite the company's increasing video content budget, these investments have been forming a smaller and smaller component of the company's revenue from 2018 (even if we were to exclude the skewed figures from recent quarters due to reduced original content being produced as a result of COVID-19 delays), demonstrating the company's improved CFO position that has driven results towards FCF profitability. As a result, this allowed the company to confidently declare to investors that: \"So we expect to be about cash flow breakeven this year and then sustainably free cash flow positive and growing thereafter.\" This is definitely a highly important development, as that means NFLX now has more and more cash flow flexibility to invest in content to further drive its competitive edge against its closest rivals. The company's expected FCF profitability has also given the company confidence to announce a $5B share buyback in order to return excess cash to investors.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee2072e791610e16b97ed6d432f1fcb9\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Projected Revenue Consensus Estimates, Projected Revenue Growth, Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p>\n<p>In fact, when I factored in NFLX's growth assumptions into its forecast model, NFLX is expected to consistently improve its FCF margin in the years ahead, while maintaining a steady revenue growth over time. NFLX is fast becoming a FCF driver that is capable of sustaining its growth and protecting its competitive moat strongly.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cbb70240f511c861aa1e4fd5b8c00d\" tg-width=\"893\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">SVOD market share in Japan. Data Source: GEM Partners</p>\n<p>Turning to NFLX's fastest growing region: APAC (shortsighted investors seemed to ignore NFLX's dominance in this region). There's absolutely no doubt who was the clear leader in the SVOD market in Japan with NFLX holding a 19.5% market share. In fact, Japan was expected to take over Australia as APAC'slargest market by the end of 2021. Japan's revenue is expected to grow at about 37% YoY from $2.4B to $3.3B, and subscriptions from 25.5M to 33.3M, which would represent a 30.6% increase YoY.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d5751919369a578902516e76f5793a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Most popular OTT in Korea. Data Source: IGAWorks</p>\n<p>In its third largest APAC market: Korea, NFLX is also the well-established leader with a market share well ahead of the other OTT services, allowing the company a lot of leverage in producing top quality original Korean content. Korean content is very popular in Asia, and Netflix relies heavily on the Korean Wave (Hallyu) as the main gateway to audiences in Asia and has committed$500M to invest in Korean content in 2021 alone, from $700M spent between 2015 to 2020. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos summed up the company's approach in Korean content:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Over the last two years, we've seen the world falling in love with incredible Korean content</b>, made in Korea and watched by the world on Netflix. Our commitment towards Korea is strong. We will continue to invest and collaborate with Korean storytellers across a wealth of genres and formats.\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06889e84d7faf18b5d1a8da1b4542895\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Popular OTT for accessing Korean Dramas Worldwide. Data Source: Korean Foundation for International Cultural Exchange; MCST Korea</p>\n<p>Netflix's commitment to build up its investments in Korean content has allowed it to maintain a strong position as the second ranked OTT platform behind YouTube for worldwide access to Korean dramas mainly because in my opinion, AVOD-based YouTube is free. However, Netflix has produced a lot of Original Series Korean dramas that have often quickly become a hit, and which were not available for distribution on YouTube.</p>\n<p>The Elephant in the Room: Disney</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb61cee21092f710c0e1446f1d598d2\" tg-width=\"1207\" tg-height=\"746\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Estimated number of SVOD subscribers worldwide. Data Source: Digital TV Research</p>\n<p>Disney (DIS) perhaps represents the largest threat in terms of subscribers growth as it's expected to take over NFLX as the largest SVOD player worldwide by 2026 with 294M subscribers as compared to NFLX's 286M subscribers.</p>\n<p>DIS has grown its subscribers base impressively as it reached103.6M subscribers in Q2'21. DIS's Hotstar platform is the dominant platform in two of Asia's most populated countries: Indonesia and India. This is expected to continue driving strong subscribers growth that would help it to exceed NFLX's subscriber base eventually.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30f463be13597df4819879aa4b894285\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>DIS+ ARPU. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p>However, DIS's ARPU is also substantially lower than NFLX as Hotstar is very much a lower-priced offering and therefore skewing DIS's ARPU to the downside even as it adds more users. However, Hotstar looks like the better equipped option for growth in these two important Asian markets for DIS and I think DISpossesses the edge over here.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f805876a22e4da556a27db39e6cdc8\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Estimated penetration rate. Data Source: The Motley Fool, Stifel</p>\n<p>However, NFLX is still expected to make inroads in all its segments, and particularly in APAC and EMEA as it continues to drive content growth to cater to the markets where it has the lead. l certainly think NFLX can't win in all markets, and in some markets the company definitely has to spend a lot more time and resources to develop them such as in APAC where its penetration is still very low, therefore offering huge potential for growth.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20878384ca9242ab35b248fb2b73ff6f\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>OTT Revenue Worldwide. Data Source: Digital TV Research</p>\n<p>Most importantly, the whole market still offers a lot of opportunities for growth for well positioned players in both the AVOD and the SVOD space. In the SVOD market, it is expected to grow at about 10.16% CAGR from 2020 to 2025, which although not as fast as the AVOD market, it's still expected to grow at a highly respectable rate.</p>\n<p><b>Valuations are Not Expensive</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d390f14679f74fb62a364d0921d5923\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Revenue CAGR and Revenue Multiples. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p>\n<p>NFLX's projected growth (5Y CAGR of 15.1%) is definitely expected to slow as it matures, and turn FCF profitable. I don't think it's a bad thing. NFLX is still the dominant player in SVOD and expected to be so. In addition, it's still expected to grow faster than the SVOD market growth of 10.1%, thus further reinforcing NFLX's market leadership expectation. In addition, it's also trading at a slight discount on its EV / FY+1 Rev of 7.8x as compared to its 5Y Av. EV / LTM Rev of 8.8x.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becc49bc5dfbfa222226bd7426fd4e9e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>CapEX Margin &amp; Projected CapEx Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c44673eb90f5086b3eeae98397e1115f\" tg-width=\"1276\" tg-height=\"1122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>5Y Av. EV / EBITDA &amp; EV / Fwd EBITDA. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p>\n<p>Given that its CapEX margins (see above) are expected to be largely consistent over time as compared to the last few years, I also find it useful to consider its cash flow generating capacity and value it accordingly. When we consider NFLX's EV / Fwd EBITDA (see above), we could see the company's improved FCF generating capability has now made NFLX a lot more undervalued than when we compared it against its revenue growth.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e39e44f4f13ac6efc0b91aed6045771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>EV / Fwd (EBITDA - CapEx). Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p>\n<p>In fact, NFLX is expected to continue generating a high level FCF moving forward which would thus further support the NFLX's competitive valuation from the FCF point of view.</p>\n<p>Price Action and Technical Analysis</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da4bd6973d2fa92a51a7b159b05efce\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: TradingView</p>\n<p>The current price level at $489 is a possible entry point, with a more conservative entry point at $458. The \"Buy more\" entry point is at $398, which is also supported above the key 200W MA. Avoid buying near $563 and $593 in the near term as they look to be key resistance levels.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping it all up</b></p>\n<p>Netflix's \"loss of competitiveness\" and \"weak fundamentals\" that were called into question recently are largely unfounded. The company enjoys strong dominance and competitive advantages in the SVOD market that is still expected to grow at double digit growth rates of which NFLX is expected to exploit in the years ahead.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix: The Selloff Looks Overdone</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix: The Selloff Looks Overdone\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 17:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434692-netflix-the-sell-off-looks-overdone-nflx><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNetflix has been unreasonably sold down and unjustifiably cited as losing its competitive edge due to weaker Q1’21 membership adds.\nHowever, short-sighted investors did not consider Netflix’s...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434692-netflix-the-sell-off-looks-overdone-nflx\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434692-netflix-the-sell-off-looks-overdone-nflx","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1193778475","content_text":"Summary\n\nNetflix has been unreasonably sold down and unjustifiably cited as losing its competitive edge due to weaker Q1’21 membership adds.\nHowever, short-sighted investors did not consider Netflix’s overall game to evaluate the strength of its moat.\nNetflix looks attractively-priced now, and should be a worthy addition to both value and growth investors.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nNetflix (NFLX) has come under the weather recently, as the company had to face increased competitive pressure from the growth of Disney+, recent industry consolidation fromWarner Bros. Discovery(T,DISCA) and Amazon's (AMZN)acquisition of MGM's deep content IP. Furthermore, the company also reported an\"underwhelming\" Q1'21results that saw the company even missing its own net membership adds estimates by 2m. In short, there seems to be no shortage of bad news for NFLX recently.\n\nSource: TradingView\nTherefore, it's not surprising to me at all that Mr. Market reacted somewhat negatively to all these competitive headwinds as NFLX remains about 18% off its January high, while QQQ is withintouching distance of its all time high. As a price-action, momentum based investor, seeing a stock that has demonstrated strong medium term and long term uptrend bias is of paramount importance to me and NFLX certainly checks all of that from this perspective. Although there are other growth stocks that have demonstrated a better uptrend bias profile, NFLX is not a slouch either. It has only lost its medium term 50W MA dynamic support only twice in the last 5 years: 2018 bear market decline of 45%, and Jul-Sep 19 decline of 35%. Even though the stock momentarily lost its 50W support level then, NFLX quickly regained its medium term support level, and during the COVID-19 bear market, NFLX never lost support of its medium term uptrend. Therefore, the 50W MA has proven to be a consistently strong medium term dynamic support level for NFLX over the last 5 years.\nNFLX's price has now approached its 50W support level again thanks to the weak market sentiments lately which makes it appropriate to discuss whether NFLX represents a good buying opportunity now for long term investors.\nSo What Happened to Netflix's Paid Adds?\n\nAverage Paying Membership by Region. Data Source: Company Filings\n\nAverage Paying Membership YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nAs we could observe clearly from the charts above, the market reacted negatively to NFLX's Q1'21 results, sending the stock down 8.21% the day after the release. It added just 3.98M net paid members in Q1'21, which was significantly weaker than the previous quarters as can be seen from its YoY Growth. The management mainly attributed this to the strong pull forward growth in membership during Q1'20 that has somewhat skewed the base upwards and may have disproportionately affected its growth in Q1'21. Although I think there is a reasonable basis for that line of argument, however we did not observe such a drastic decline in Roku, Inc. (ROKU) in its active accounts in Q1'21 (see charts below).\n\nRoku Active Accounts. Data Source: Company Filings\n\nRoku Active Accounts YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nWe could clearly observe Roku's Active accounts YoY growth of 34.7% in Q1'21 to be still largely in line with 2019's growth even though Roku also experienced pull forward growth from COVID-19 last year. Therefore, I think there is a reasonable basis to infer that NFLX's paid adds growth seemed to have slowed down pretty dramatically even though it should be noted that NFLX's net paid membership of 208M significantly outnumbered Roku's 53.6M active accounts and that was not a small difference.\nNow, if you are a short term trader or an \"investor\" with a horizon of 1 quarter, then perhaps it may be a reasonable basis to get out of the stock. However, for long term investors, many of whom NFLX has handsomely rewarded over the last ten years, we need to dig deeper to investigate whether there has been a significant change in its long term competitive moat from the latest quarter's aberration that may significantly change NFLX's ability to compete effectively and weaken the competitive dynamics of its business model.\nRevenue Growth Looks Good\n\nRevenue by Region. Data Source: Company Filings\n\nRevenue by Region YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nFirst up, let's take a look at its revenue by region performance. We could observe clearly that the company's most important revenue drivers: UCAN and EMEA had YoY revenue growth of 17.3% and 36% in Q1'21, respectively, as compared to 19.8% and 39.7% in Q1'20, respectively. Sure, there was a slight blip in its YoY growth rate in Q1'21, but it was still very much in line with Q4'20 YoY numbers (which Mr. Market cheered by pushing the stock up 17.74% the day after earnings release), so it was nothing too significant that warranted a serious look into its competitiveness. Moreover, its fastest growing region: APAC also looked to have performed well with a 57.6% YoY growth rate that was even better than Q1'20's YoY growth rate of 51.3%.\n\nARPU by Region. Data Source: Company Filings\n\nARPU by Region YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nNFLX also performed admirably well in its ARPU. ARPU was up in all the regions except for LATAM where the growth was flat on a QoQ basis. Although ARPU growth was quite volatile between quarters, ARPU in UCAN, EMEA and APAC went up by 8.4%, 11.5% and 9% in Q1'21, respectively. Even though LATAM's ARPU was down YoY, but on a QoQ basis it was flat, so there was nothing materially serious to take note here. Therefore, NFLX's ARPU performance looked really good in Q1'21.\n\nTimeline of NFLX Price Hikes. Source:Variety\nIf NFLX had faced intense competitive pressure in the past that forced it into a price war with competing platforms as it acquired more users, we would have seen the company forced to reduce its prices over time. On the contrary, NFLX has been increasing its prices steadily over time, with the latest round of price hikes on October 20. Even though there were some knee-jerk cancellations from some subscribers in the short term over the price hikes, over the long term it has never affected the company's ability to attract more users. This shows NFLX's strong competitive moat that gives it a huge ability to raise prices over time without losing its subscribers. In fact,NFLX well encapsulatedits strong ability to retain its subscribers despite the price hikes:\n\n Our churn is actually below pre-price change levels already in the U.S. and in most of the markets and where we have adjusted prices and just some of the newer ones haven't come all the way back down, but they're rapidly getting there.\n\nThese well-planned price increases are extremely beneficial to NFLX's topline, given NFLX's growing subscriber base as the recent price increase is expected toadd $500Mto NFLX's revenue in FY 21 (consensus: $29.72B). Even though it's not a significant sum as compared to the revenue base, however more importantly it demonstrated clearly that NFLX has considerable pricing power in a highly competitive SVOD segment.\n\nTop Reasons for Video Streaming Subscription Cancellations. Source:Variety\nWhen we consider that the single most important reason for subscribers to cancel their streaming subscriptions is: \"If the subscription price increased\", then investors should now be able to really understand how Mr. Market has significantly underestimated NFLX's pricing power, which is extremely important to NFLX's business model to introduce more and more high quality content as its subscriber base gets larger over time.\nIf we revisit NFLX's ARPU by region again, we could certainly see a generally healthy trend of ARPU over time even as the company increased its prices. It's important to note that increasing subscriptions prices is the primary way for it to further monetize its growing user base (although the company has also recently introduced more monetization methods such asNetflix shop, as well as thegaming market, so investors are highly encouraged to continue monitoring these developments). The price increases will help to bolster the consistency of the ARPU such that it would help with times when the company has found some difficulty in adding more users such as in Q1'21, while YoY revenue growth was still very healthy.\nInvestors should take note that NFLX's growing membership base of 208M paying members is a formidable moat for it to keep producing its slate of high quality original content.\nStrong Content Pipeline\n\nContent Assets. Data Source: Company Filings\n\nProduced Content YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nNFLX has been growing its original content base rapidly over the last few years, although the COVID-19 crisis has somewhat slowed down its growth. Thecompany emphasized:\n\n [W]e think we'll get back to a much steadier state in the back half of the year and certainly in Q4, where we've got the returning seasons of some of our most popular shows like The Witcher and You and Cobra Kai as well as some big tempo movies that came to market a little slower than we'd hoped, like Red Notes with The Rock and Ryan Reynolds and Gaga, and Escape From Spiderhead with Chris Hemsworth, big event content.\n\nTherefore, the company is not resting on its laurels and would keep on its record of producing high quality content to keep engagement at a high level with its viewers.\n\nRanking of original streaming series titles in the U.S. Data Source: Nielsen, Media Play News\nIn this survey conducted in early May, NFLX's slate of original series took home 7 out of the top 10 slots for the most watched series, demonstrating the high quality and appeal of its content with viewers. In fact, there were many other surveys that also showed Netflix's dominance in viewership over time.\nNetflix's original content didn't just dominate hours watched, but also award nominations. The company highlighted its recent achievements:\n\n Netflix led all studios for recent award nominations including the Oscars, Golden Globes, SAG Awards, BAFTA and the NAACP Image Awards, among others. Heading into the Academy Awards this weekend, we have 36 nominations across 17 films including two nominees in each of the Best Picture (Mank, The Trial of the Chicago 7), Best Documentary Feature (Crip Camp, My Octopus Teacher), and Best Animated Feature (Over the Moon, A Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon) categories. Mank led all films with 10 nominations.\n\n\nReasons for subscribing to SVOD services in the U.S. Data Source: Vorhaus Advisors\nAs we could observe from the above, high quality original series (35%) and specific TV series or movies (43%) ranked very highly on the reasons for subscribing to SVOD services, and investors can rest assured that NFLX is certainly leading in these areas.\n\nShare of SVOD subscribers, who also subscribe to other services. Data Source: Reelgood\nIn the SVOD space, we could clearly observe NFLX's importance to subscribers even if they subscribed to other services, which definitely helps to downplay the significance of increasing competitive threats to NFLX. In fact, NFLX was the most important service among these subscribers as the subscribers of the company's competitors also subscribed to NFLX: Peacock Premium (90%), HBO Max (90%), Amazon Prime (84%), Disney+ (87%), Hulu (85%) and Apple TV+ (92%), demonstrating clearly the importance and dominance of NFLX to its competitors' subscribers.\n\nNetflix Video Content Budget. Data Source: eMarketer\nMany critics also pointed to NFLX's increasing need to dedicate huge amounts of investments to drive its engagement levels, protect its moat, grow its revenue. In fact, I think unless NFLX is working on a model like Roku, whose business model I havediscussed recently here, having a high quality slate of original content is important in order to maintain its competitive edge, especially when we have witnessed a series of industry consolidation where NFLX may lose more and more access to high quality licensed content, so NFLX's committed investments in original content a few years ago led by Co-CEO Ted Sarandos has certainly been a masterstroke that has helped maintain the company's competitive edge. In addition, NFLX has been getting more and more efficient in producing original content over time, certainly helped by the large and growing paying membership base, which as I mentioned in itself is a strong moat.\n\nOther Operating Activities [LTM] as a % of Revenue [LTM]. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nNFLX's other operating activities segment mainly include the company's investments in content assets which are classified as a cash outflow in the company's Cash from Operations [CFO]. If we observed clearly, despite the company's increasing video content budget, these investments have been forming a smaller and smaller component of the company's revenue from 2018 (even if we were to exclude the skewed figures from recent quarters due to reduced original content being produced as a result of COVID-19 delays), demonstrating the company's improved CFO position that has driven results towards FCF profitability. As a result, this allowed the company to confidently declare to investors that: \"So we expect to be about cash flow breakeven this year and then sustainably free cash flow positive and growing thereafter.\" This is definitely a highly important development, as that means NFLX now has more and more cash flow flexibility to invest in content to further drive its competitive edge against its closest rivals. The company's expected FCF profitability has also given the company confidence to announce a $5B share buyback in order to return excess cash to investors.\n\nProjected Revenue Consensus Estimates, Projected Revenue Growth, Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nIn fact, when I factored in NFLX's growth assumptions into its forecast model, NFLX is expected to consistently improve its FCF margin in the years ahead, while maintaining a steady revenue growth over time. NFLX is fast becoming a FCF driver that is capable of sustaining its growth and protecting its competitive moat strongly.\nSVOD market share in Japan. Data Source: GEM Partners\nTurning to NFLX's fastest growing region: APAC (shortsighted investors seemed to ignore NFLX's dominance in this region). There's absolutely no doubt who was the clear leader in the SVOD market in Japan with NFLX holding a 19.5% market share. In fact, Japan was expected to take over Australia as APAC'slargest market by the end of 2021. Japan's revenue is expected to grow at about 37% YoY from $2.4B to $3.3B, and subscriptions from 25.5M to 33.3M, which would represent a 30.6% increase YoY.\n\nMost popular OTT in Korea. Data Source: IGAWorks\nIn its third largest APAC market: Korea, NFLX is also the well-established leader with a market share well ahead of the other OTT services, allowing the company a lot of leverage in producing top quality original Korean content. Korean content is very popular in Asia, and Netflix relies heavily on the Korean Wave (Hallyu) as the main gateway to audiences in Asia and has committed$500M to invest in Korean content in 2021 alone, from $700M spent between 2015 to 2020. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos summed up the company's approach in Korean content:\n\nOver the last two years, we've seen the world falling in love with incredible Korean content, made in Korea and watched by the world on Netflix. Our commitment towards Korea is strong. We will continue to invest and collaborate with Korean storytellers across a wealth of genres and formats.\n\n\nPopular OTT for accessing Korean Dramas Worldwide. Data Source: Korean Foundation for International Cultural Exchange; MCST Korea\nNetflix's commitment to build up its investments in Korean content has allowed it to maintain a strong position as the second ranked OTT platform behind YouTube for worldwide access to Korean dramas mainly because in my opinion, AVOD-based YouTube is free. However, Netflix has produced a lot of Original Series Korean dramas that have often quickly become a hit, and which were not available for distribution on YouTube.\nThe Elephant in the Room: Disney\n\nEstimated number of SVOD subscribers worldwide. Data Source: Digital TV Research\nDisney (DIS) perhaps represents the largest threat in terms of subscribers growth as it's expected to take over NFLX as the largest SVOD player worldwide by 2026 with 294M subscribers as compared to NFLX's 286M subscribers.\nDIS has grown its subscribers base impressively as it reached103.6M subscribers in Q2'21. DIS's Hotstar platform is the dominant platform in two of Asia's most populated countries: Indonesia and India. This is expected to continue driving strong subscribers growth that would help it to exceed NFLX's subscriber base eventually.\n\nDIS+ ARPU. Data Source: Company Filings\nHowever, DIS's ARPU is also substantially lower than NFLX as Hotstar is very much a lower-priced offering and therefore skewing DIS's ARPU to the downside even as it adds more users. However, Hotstar looks like the better equipped option for growth in these two important Asian markets for DIS and I think DISpossesses the edge over here.\n\nEstimated penetration rate. Data Source: The Motley Fool, Stifel\nHowever, NFLX is still expected to make inroads in all its segments, and particularly in APAC and EMEA as it continues to drive content growth to cater to the markets where it has the lead. l certainly think NFLX can't win in all markets, and in some markets the company definitely has to spend a lot more time and resources to develop them such as in APAC where its penetration is still very low, therefore offering huge potential for growth.\n\nOTT Revenue Worldwide. Data Source: Digital TV Research\nMost importantly, the whole market still offers a lot of opportunities for growth for well positioned players in both the AVOD and the SVOD space. In the SVOD market, it is expected to grow at about 10.16% CAGR from 2020 to 2025, which although not as fast as the AVOD market, it's still expected to grow at a highly respectable rate.\nValuations are Not Expensive\n\nRevenue CAGR and Revenue Multiples. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nNFLX's projected growth (5Y CAGR of 15.1%) is definitely expected to slow as it matures, and turn FCF profitable. I don't think it's a bad thing. NFLX is still the dominant player in SVOD and expected to be so. In addition, it's still expected to grow faster than the SVOD market growth of 10.1%, thus further reinforcing NFLX's market leadership expectation. In addition, it's also trading at a slight discount on its EV / FY+1 Rev of 7.8x as compared to its 5Y Av. EV / LTM Rev of 8.8x.\n\nCapEX Margin & Projected CapEx Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\n\n5Y Av. EV / EBITDA & EV / Fwd EBITDA. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nGiven that its CapEX margins (see above) are expected to be largely consistent over time as compared to the last few years, I also find it useful to consider its cash flow generating capacity and value it accordingly. When we consider NFLX's EV / Fwd EBITDA (see above), we could see the company's improved FCF generating capability has now made NFLX a lot more undervalued than when we compared it against its revenue growth.\n\nEV / Fwd (EBITDA - CapEx). Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nIn fact, NFLX is expected to continue generating a high level FCF moving forward which would thus further support the NFLX's competitive valuation from the FCF point of view.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\n\nSource: TradingView\nThe current price level at $489 is a possible entry point, with a more conservative entry point at $458. The \"Buy more\" entry point is at $398, which is also supported above the key 200W MA. Avoid buying near $563 and $593 in the near term as they look to be key resistance levels.\nWrapping it all up\nNetflix's \"loss of competitiveness\" and \"weak fundamentals\" that were called into question recently are largely unfounded. The company enjoys strong dominance and competitive advantages in the SVOD market that is still expected to grow at double digit growth rates of which NFLX is expected to exploit in the years ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":169849294,"gmtCreate":1623829967918,"gmtModify":1703820728068,"author":{"id":"3574523682370819","authorId":"3574523682370819","name":"flippz123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574523682370819","authorIdStr":"3574523682370819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169849294","repostId":"1117953789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117953789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623829736,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117953789?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 15:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"First Look: Solid Power, a Ford-Backed QuantumScape Rival, Will Go Public via SPAC","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117953789","media":"fool","summary":"Solid Power, a promising solid-state battery start-up backed by Ford Motor(NYSE:F)and BMW, said that","content":"<p>Solid Power, a promising solid-state battery start-up backed by&nbsp;<b>Ford Motor</b>(NYSE:F)and&nbsp;<b>BMW</b>, said that it has agreed to go public via a merger with special purpose acquisition company (SPAC)<b>Decarbonization Plus Acquisition III</b>(NASDAQ:DCRC).</p>\n<p>The deal values the combined company at about $1.2 billion.</p>\n<p>Many investors have been overwhelmed by the number of SPAC deals in the electric-vehicle space over the last year, and some have soured on the space now that a couple of last year's darlings have turned out to be, well, less than they seemed.But if you still believe that electric vehicles are the future (I do), Solid Power is worth a close look. It's a company with real potential, with some big customers ready and waiting for its products, and with technology that's much closer to mass production than that of its most prominent rivals.</p>\n<p><b>What is Solid Power</b></p>\n<p>Colorado-based Solid Power, founded in 2012, is one of several companies working to develop so-called solid-state batteries, which omit the liquid electrolyte used in the lithium-ion batteries that power most electric vehicles today. (Among the others:<b>QuantumScape</b>(NYSE:QS), which drew lots of attention from investors after it went public via its own SPAC deal late last year.)</p>\n<p>Solid-state batteries have the potential to offer greater energy density than lithium-ion batteries with less weight, but a design that can be mass-produced at a reasonable cost has eluded researchers for years.</p>\n<p>That may soon change.</p>\n<p><b>What makes this a big deal</b></p>\n<p>First and foremost, Solid Power appears to be closer to mass production than its rivals. Most solid-state battery efforts are at least a few years away from production. QuantumScape, for example, is<i>hoping</i>tobegin pilot production of its batteriesin about three years. But Solid Power is already producing its second-generation 20 ampere-hour (Ah) battery cells on a pilot production line, and it expects to begin pilot production of its full-scale 100 Ah batteries next year.</p>\n<p>Second -- again, unlike most competitors -- Solid Power's solid-state battery cells can be manufactured with equipment and processes adapted from lithium-ion battery manufacturing, meaning that existing battery plants can be converted to build Solid Power's cells at relatively low cost.</p>\n<p>Finally, as I mentioned above, bothFord and BMW are investors in Solid Power. Both participated in the company's most recent funding round earlier this year, both expect to receive batches of those 100 Ah cells for testing in their own electric vehicles next year, and assuming those tests go well, both will be early customers for the company's mass-produced cells.</p>\n<p><b>What are the terms of the Solid Power SPAC deal</b></p>\n<p>Solid Power's deal to merge with Decarbonization Plus III follows the pattern of other SPAC deals we've seen in the electric vehicle space over the past year, in that it includes a PIPE (for \"private investment in public equity\") that allows big investors to buy stock in the merged company at an agreed-upon price, adding extra cash to the deal.</p>\n<p>Here are the key points of the deal:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Decarbonization Plus III is contributing the cash it holds in trust, about $350 million.</li>\n <li>The PIPE will bring another $165 million from investors including<b>Riverstone Energy</b>, Koch Industries' venture-capital fund, and funds advised by Neuberger Berman and VanEck Global.</li>\n <li>Together with the $135 million that Solid Power raised in its Series B round last month, the post-merger company will have about $650 million in cash.</li>\n <li>The merged company will retain the Solid Power name and will trade on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the ticker symbol \"SLDP.\"</li>\n <li>The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2021.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>What are the risks if I buy DCRC now</b></p>\n<p>As with any SPAC deal involving a company that hasn't yet brought its product to market, there are risks investors should keep in mind:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>It's possible that the deal won't close, or that it'll close later than scheduled.</li>\n <li>It's possible that the company's technology won't pan out, or that it goes into production later than expected. Investors who are used to tech start-up time frames should note that the pace of progress in the battery space is<i>glacial</i>by comparison. Solid Power has been working on its batteries since 2012, QuantumScape since 2010.</li>\n <li>It's possible that one or more competitors will beat Solid Power to market, taking significant share.</li>\n <li>It's possible that we'll learn things about Solid Power that make it a less attractive investment. (I have no reason to think this will happen, but all SPAC investors should be mindful of the examples of<b>Nikola</b>and<b>Lordstown Motors</b>, both of which made important claims that werelater foundtohave been exaggerated.)</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Is DCRC a buy</b></p>\n<p>I'm not sure yet, but right now I'm leaning toward \"yes.\" Solid Power's technology is very promising, and executives at Ford think highly of the company's technology and leadership team. As with any battery start-up, the question is when (and whether) the company can bring its batteries to market -- but I think Solid Power will still have good growth potential even if production slips by a year or two.</p>\n<p>That said, I'm still working through all of the company's investor materials, and I expect to have more thoughts on Solid Power's valuation and growth potential in a few days. Stay tuned.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>First Look: Solid Power, a Ford-Backed QuantumScape Rival, Will Go Public via SPAC</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFirst Look: Solid Power, a Ford-Backed QuantumScape Rival, Will Go Public via SPAC\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 15:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/first-look-solid-power-a-ford-backed-quantumscape/><strong>fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Solid Power, a promising solid-state battery start-up backed by Ford Motor(NYSE:F)and BMW, said that it has agreed to go public via a merger with special purpose acquisition company (SPAC)...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/first-look-solid-power-a-ford-backed-quantumscape/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BAMXF":"Bayerische Motoren Werke AG","F":"福特汽车","QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/first-look-solid-power-a-ford-backed-quantumscape/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117953789","content_text":"Solid Power, a promising solid-state battery start-up backed by Ford Motor(NYSE:F)and BMW, said that it has agreed to go public via a merger with special purpose acquisition company (SPAC)Decarbonization Plus Acquisition III(NASDAQ:DCRC).\nThe deal values the combined company at about $1.2 billion.\nMany investors have been overwhelmed by the number of SPAC deals in the electric-vehicle space over the last year, and some have soured on the space now that a couple of last year's darlings have turned out to be, well, less than they seemed.But if you still believe that electric vehicles are the future (I do), Solid Power is worth a close look. It's a company with real potential, with some big customers ready and waiting for its products, and with technology that's much closer to mass production than that of its most prominent rivals.\nWhat is Solid Power\nColorado-based Solid Power, founded in 2012, is one of several companies working to develop so-called solid-state batteries, which omit the liquid electrolyte used in the lithium-ion batteries that power most electric vehicles today. (Among the others:QuantumScape(NYSE:QS), which drew lots of attention from investors after it went public via its own SPAC deal late last year.)\nSolid-state batteries have the potential to offer greater energy density than lithium-ion batteries with less weight, but a design that can be mass-produced at a reasonable cost has eluded researchers for years.\nThat may soon change.\nWhat makes this a big deal\nFirst and foremost, Solid Power appears to be closer to mass production than its rivals. Most solid-state battery efforts are at least a few years away from production. QuantumScape, for example, ishopingtobegin pilot production of its batteriesin about three years. But Solid Power is already producing its second-generation 20 ampere-hour (Ah) battery cells on a pilot production line, and it expects to begin pilot production of its full-scale 100 Ah batteries next year.\nSecond -- again, unlike most competitors -- Solid Power's solid-state battery cells can be manufactured with equipment and processes adapted from lithium-ion battery manufacturing, meaning that existing battery plants can be converted to build Solid Power's cells at relatively low cost.\nFinally, as I mentioned above, bothFord and BMW are investors in Solid Power. Both participated in the company's most recent funding round earlier this year, both expect to receive batches of those 100 Ah cells for testing in their own electric vehicles next year, and assuming those tests go well, both will be early customers for the company's mass-produced cells.\nWhat are the terms of the Solid Power SPAC deal\nSolid Power's deal to merge with Decarbonization Plus III follows the pattern of other SPAC deals we've seen in the electric vehicle space over the past year, in that it includes a PIPE (for \"private investment in public equity\") that allows big investors to buy stock in the merged company at an agreed-upon price, adding extra cash to the deal.\nHere are the key points of the deal:\n\nDecarbonization Plus III is contributing the cash it holds in trust, about $350 million.\nThe PIPE will bring another $165 million from investors includingRiverstone Energy, Koch Industries' venture-capital fund, and funds advised by Neuberger Berman and VanEck Global.\nTogether with the $135 million that Solid Power raised in its Series B round last month, the post-merger company will have about $650 million in cash.\nThe merged company will retain the Solid Power name and will trade on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the ticker symbol \"SLDP.\"\nThe deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2021.\n\nWhat are the risks if I buy DCRC now\nAs with any SPAC deal involving a company that hasn't yet brought its product to market, there are risks investors should keep in mind:\n\nIt's possible that the deal won't close, or that it'll close later than scheduled.\nIt's possible that the company's technology won't pan out, or that it goes into production later than expected. Investors who are used to tech start-up time frames should note that the pace of progress in the battery space isglacialby comparison. Solid Power has been working on its batteries since 2012, QuantumScape since 2010.\nIt's possible that one or more competitors will beat Solid Power to market, taking significant share.\nIt's possible that we'll learn things about Solid Power that make it a less attractive investment. (I have no reason to think this will happen, but all SPAC investors should be mindful of the examples ofNikolaandLordstown Motors, both of which made important claims that werelater foundtohave been exaggerated.)\n\nIs DCRC a buy\nI'm not sure yet, but right now I'm leaning toward \"yes.\" Solid Power's technology is very promising, and executives at Ford think highly of the company's technology and leadership team. As with any battery start-up, the question is when (and whether) the company can bring its batteries to market -- but I think Solid Power will still have good growth potential even if production slips by a year or two.\nThat said, I'm still working through all of the company's investor materials, and I expect to have more thoughts on Solid Power's valuation and growth potential in a few days. Stay tuned.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161200767,"gmtCreate":1623926353059,"gmtModify":1703823664229,"author":{"id":"3574523682370819","authorId":"3574523682370819","name":"flippz123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574523682370819","authorIdStr":"3574523682370819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161200767","repostId":"2144438997","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144438997","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"T-Reuters","id":"1086160438","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5"},"pubTimestamp":1623923136,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144438997?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 17:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BlackRock Inc Sold H-Shares In China Galaxy Securities On June 15 - HKEX Filing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144438997","media":"T-Reuters","summary":"Hong Kong stock exchange filing:Blackrock Inc Sold 1.8 Mln H-Shares In China Galaxy Securities 6881.","content":"<p>Hong Kong stock exchange filing:Blackrock Inc Sold 1.8 Mln H-Shares In China Galaxy Securities 6881.Hk At Hk$4.65 ($0.5989) Per Share On June 15 - Hkex Filing.Blackrock Inc'S Long Position In China Galaxy Securities Falls To 4.96% From 5.01% - Hkex Filing.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BlackRock Inc Sold H-Shares In China Galaxy Securities On June 15 - HKEX Filing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackRock Inc Sold H-Shares In China Galaxy Securities On June 15 - HKEX Filing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086160438\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">T-Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-17 17:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hong Kong stock exchange filing:Blackrock Inc Sold 1.8 Mln H-Shares In China Galaxy Securities 6881.Hk At Hk$4.65 ($0.5989) Per Share On June 15 - Hkex Filing.Blackrock Inc'S Long Position In China Galaxy Securities Falls To 4.96% From 5.01% - Hkex Filing.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LABP":"Landos Biopharma, Inc.","CGEM":"Cullinan Therapeutics","LHDX":"Lucira Health, Inc.","SANA":"Sana Biotechnology, Inc.","BLK":"贝莱德","APR":"Apria, Inc.","06881":"中国银河"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144438997","content_text":"Hong Kong stock exchange filing:Blackrock Inc Sold 1.8 Mln H-Shares In China Galaxy Securities 6881.Hk At Hk$4.65 ($0.5989) Per Share On June 15 - Hkex Filing.Blackrock Inc'S Long Position In China Galaxy Securities Falls To 4.96% From 5.01% - Hkex Filing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169851587,"gmtCreate":1623829481249,"gmtModify":1703820716674,"author":{"id":"3574523682370819","authorId":"3574523682370819","name":"flippz123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574523682370819","authorIdStr":"3574523682370819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hes","listText":"Hes","text":"Hes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169851587","repostId":"1182315358","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182315358","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623814338,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182315358?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 11:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"It’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182315358","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.\nIt takes brains and brawn","content":"<p>If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/724d1ea0bb18bddb367c79abf08c1af9\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"841\"><span>It takes brains and brawn to be an investor these days. (Photo by Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p>\n<p>I don’t know when what I call the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market will end.</p>\n<p>After 12 years being long and strong and having diamond hands without even knowing that term existed, maybe I’m wrong to turn more cautious.</p>\n<p>Maybe the economy will reopen and rejuvenate the country in such a strong manner that corporate earnings in 2022 and 2023 will make today’s prices seem like bargains.</p>\n<p>But I simply don’t think that’s the most likely outcome.</p>\n<p>And if I’m right that we’re in the throes of the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market, I do not want to be overly long and on the wrong side of the great unwind when it does start.</p>\n<p>I’m not calling for a near-term crash. I am saying that it’s likely going to be hard for the bulls to make as much money this year as they did last year.</p>\n<p>Trading and investing are tough. There’s always someone on the other side of every trade you make. Always think about who that is and why they are willing to take the other side of your transaction. When you buy, why are they selling it to you at that price? When you sell, who is buying it from you and what are their motivations? Remember, I’ve talked before about how&nbsp;good analysis starts with empathy.</p>\n<p><b>If I’m selling, who’s buying — and why?</b></p>\n<p>So let’s answer this question right now. Who is buying stocks and cryptos from me when I’ve trimmed and sold for the past month or so? Sure, there are banks and institutions and hedge funds and family offices investing and trading, just as always. On the other hand, remember two years ago when I got back from a hedge fund investment conference&nbsp;in Abu Dhabi and everybody was desperate for returns:</p>\n<p>Amid low interest rates and other investors’ focus on options, credit and currencies, “the lack of focus on traditional stocks and funds that invest in publicly traded stocks makes me think that there is probably more opportunity in such assets than people realize. I certainly see some very compelling long ideas in Revolutionary companies like WORK and TWTR and TSLA.”</p>\n<p>Since that post, back a year and a half ago, Slack&nbsp;went from $21 to being bought out at $45, Twitter&nbsp;went from $27 to $61, and Tesla&nbsp;went from $81 to $616. And funds that were looking everywhere but in the stock market for big gains are … well, pretty much in the markets now and long a bunch of stocks and even long a few cryptos.</p>\n<p>And now that those stocks and cryptos and most other assets have gone parabolic in the past year — coming on top of the 10-year bull market — the billion-dollar fund managers are joined by&nbsp;23-year-old TikTok influencers&nbsp;doing bitcoin&nbsp;trading astrology.</p>\n<p>Yes, for real, and she’s very popular. She’s even been right about some of bitcoin’s action in the past few months! If you’re selling cryptos and fintech stocks right now, you’re selling to her and her followers. And also to my friend’s son, who just graduated from a tiny, rural school and whose unemployed uncle gave him $500 to “buy some cryptos. And make sure you get some fintech. I don’t know the symbol, but just look it up and you’ll do fine over the long run.”&nbsp;Bearish anecdotes everywhere I look, as I wrote recently.</p>\n<p><b>Mr. Market</b></p>\n<p>The other thing to remember about who’s on the other side of your trade is always to remember that there are smart, cutthroat traders and investors who went to the best schools and have access to more research and real-time data and instant trading access to all kinds of derivatives to layer into their bets. And the only thing they do all day, every day, is figure out how to take your money in mostly legal ways. They’re not playing around. They have no sympathy for you, even if they might empathize with you to better understand your motivations to better take your money.</p>\n<p>Mr. Market is mean. He’s not nice. He can be cruel. He can force liquidations that create other liquidations. He can shut off access to capital. He can take down 200-year-old banks in a day. In one day.</p>\n<p>Sometimes the markets lead the economy and not the other way around. Ironically, when we were young, we were taught that the Great Depression started when the stock market crashed on Black Friday in 1929. But then when we get older, we were taught that it wasn’t actually the crash that created the Great Depression, rather the economy was already crashing and the stock market just didn’t realize it as it continued on its merry way toward a terrible Blow-Off Top of a nine-year Bubble-Blowing Bull Market that culminated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;up 400% from the 1921 lows to the 1929 highs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a6516337aacc614d83584ea90e174f2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"870\"></p>\n<p><b>Learning from Soros</b></p>\n<p>But looking back, it’s clear that both theories are equally right and wrong — the market crashed because the economy wasn’t as good as the market thought it was,<i>and</i>the economy crashed because the markets shut down access to capital for investment and growth.</p>\n<p>It was “reflexive,” to borrow a term from the great hedge fund manager&nbsp;George Soros.</p>\n<p>He wrote, and the concept is important to understand:</p>\n<p>“I continued to consider myself a failed philosopher. All this changed as a result of the financial crisis of 2008. My conceptual framework enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck…</p>\n<p>“I can state the core idea in two relatively simple propositions. One is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ view of the world is always partial and distorted. That is the principle of fallibility. The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate because false views lead to inappropriate actions. That is the principle of reflexivity…</p>\n<p>“Recognizing reflexivity has been sacrificed to the vain pursuit of certainty in human affairs, most notably in economics, and yet, uncertainty is the key feature of human affairs. Economic theory is built on the concept of equilibrium, and that concept is in direct contradiction with the concept of reflexivity…</p>\n<p>“A positive feedback process is self-reinforcing. It cannot go on forever because eventually the participants’ views would become so far removed from objective reality that the participants would have to recognize them as unrealistic. Nor can the iterative process occur without any change in the actual state of affairs, because it is in the nature of positive feedback that it reinforces whatever tendency prevails in the real world. Instead of equilibrium, we are faced with a dynamic disequilibrium or what may be described as far-from-equilibrium conditions. Usually in far-from-equilibrium situations the divergence between perceptions and reality leads to a climax which sets in motion a positive feedback process in the opposite direction. Such initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating boom-bust processes or bubbles are characteristic of financial markets, but they can also be found in other spheres. There, I call them fertile fallacies—interpretations of reality that are distorted, yet produce results which reinforce the distortion.”</p>\n<p>Stay flexible</p>\n<p>Far-from-equilibrium conditions was what we had in 2010-2013 when we loaded up on Revolutionary stocks and started buying cryptos like bitcoin. Far-from-equilibrium conditions might be what we have in front of us right now when I suggest getting cautious instead.</p>\n<p>We don’t want to be permabulls. (You for sure don’t want to be a permabear!) We have to be flexible. We have to let our analysis and risk/reward scenarios dictate how much risk we’re taking and when. We have to pay attention to the cycles, the self-reinforcing cycles that drive economies and markets and valuations and earnings and societal interactions and bailouts and financial crises and bubbles and busts and, heaven forbid, just simple stagnation.</p>\n<p>It’s as if everybody forgets that markets can bubble and crash and stagnate. They forget that markets can grind for years on end without making new highs, or without even making higher highs. Do you not remember telling your money manager sometime in 2010-2012 that “If I’d just handled the Great Financial Crisis (and/or the Dot-Com Crash) a little better, I’d be in better shape.” I used to hear people say that to me all the time. I haven’t heard anybody say that lately. Everybody’s having fun in this market … at least for now.</p>\n<p>Most traders will tell you that they are “just trading the market that is in front of them.” Well, I don’t know when the bubble will pop, but I do know that I don’t want to be on the wrong side of this market when it does. And I do know that we won’t know the bubble has really popped until the self-reinforcing reflexive feedback loop has made it painful for the vast majority of people who are right now feeling wealthy, feeling secure, feeling like they’ve got this trading and investing thing all figured out.</p>\n<p>We are all fallible. Be careful while it’s fun. Be bold when it’s painful. That’s how I’ve done it for the last 25 years. We were boldly buying these assets when it was painful for others. I’m careful right now because everybody else is having fun.</p>\n<p>I spend a lot of time looking for new ideas and I won’t let my overall market outlook deter me from buying a new name or two. But I want to remain overall cautious and less aggressive than I have been for most of the last decade.</p>\n<p>As a matter of fact,&nbsp;I might have at least a couple Trade Alerts that I’ll be sending out this week, one long and one short idea. Being flexible, see?</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 11:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-be-smart-like-soros-in-the-blow-off-stage-of-the-bull-market-in-stocks-11623788897?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.\nIt takes brains and brawn to be an investor these days. (Photo by Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images)\nI don’t know when what...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-be-smart-like-soros-in-the-blow-off-stage-of-the-bull-market-in-stocks-11623788897?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-be-smart-like-soros-in-the-blow-off-stage-of-the-bull-market-in-stocks-11623788897?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182315358","content_text":"If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.\nIt takes brains and brawn to be an investor these days. (Photo by Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images)\nI don’t know when what I call the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market will end.\nAfter 12 years being long and strong and having diamond hands without even knowing that term existed, maybe I’m wrong to turn more cautious.\nMaybe the economy will reopen and rejuvenate the country in such a strong manner that corporate earnings in 2022 and 2023 will make today’s prices seem like bargains.\nBut I simply don’t think that’s the most likely outcome.\nAnd if I’m right that we’re in the throes of the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market, I do not want to be overly long and on the wrong side of the great unwind when it does start.\nI’m not calling for a near-term crash. I am saying that it’s likely going to be hard for the bulls to make as much money this year as they did last year.\nTrading and investing are tough. There’s always someone on the other side of every trade you make. Always think about who that is and why they are willing to take the other side of your transaction. When you buy, why are they selling it to you at that price? When you sell, who is buying it from you and what are their motivations? Remember, I’ve talked before about how good analysis starts with empathy.\nIf I’m selling, who’s buying — and why?\nSo let’s answer this question right now. Who is buying stocks and cryptos from me when I’ve trimmed and sold for the past month or so? Sure, there are banks and institutions and hedge funds and family offices investing and trading, just as always. On the other hand, remember two years ago when I got back from a hedge fund investment conference in Abu Dhabi and everybody was desperate for returns:\nAmid low interest rates and other investors’ focus on options, credit and currencies, “the lack of focus on traditional stocks and funds that invest in publicly traded stocks makes me think that there is probably more opportunity in such assets than people realize. I certainly see some very compelling long ideas in Revolutionary companies like WORK and TWTR and TSLA.”\nSince that post, back a year and a half ago, Slack went from $21 to being bought out at $45, Twitter went from $27 to $61, and Tesla went from $81 to $616. And funds that were looking everywhere but in the stock market for big gains are … well, pretty much in the markets now and long a bunch of stocks and even long a few cryptos.\nAnd now that those stocks and cryptos and most other assets have gone parabolic in the past year — coming on top of the 10-year bull market — the billion-dollar fund managers are joined by 23-year-old TikTok influencers doing bitcoin trading astrology.\nYes, for real, and she’s very popular. She’s even been right about some of bitcoin’s action in the past few months! If you’re selling cryptos and fintech stocks right now, you’re selling to her and her followers. And also to my friend’s son, who just graduated from a tiny, rural school and whose unemployed uncle gave him $500 to “buy some cryptos. And make sure you get some fintech. I don’t know the symbol, but just look it up and you’ll do fine over the long run.” Bearish anecdotes everywhere I look, as I wrote recently.\nMr. Market\nThe other thing to remember about who’s on the other side of your trade is always to remember that there are smart, cutthroat traders and investors who went to the best schools and have access to more research and real-time data and instant trading access to all kinds of derivatives to layer into their bets. And the only thing they do all day, every day, is figure out how to take your money in mostly legal ways. They’re not playing around. They have no sympathy for you, even if they might empathize with you to better understand your motivations to better take your money.\nMr. Market is mean. He’s not nice. He can be cruel. He can force liquidations that create other liquidations. He can shut off access to capital. He can take down 200-year-old banks in a day. In one day.\nSometimes the markets lead the economy and not the other way around. Ironically, when we were young, we were taught that the Great Depression started when the stock market crashed on Black Friday in 1929. But then when we get older, we were taught that it wasn’t actually the crash that created the Great Depression, rather the economy was already crashing and the stock market just didn’t realize it as it continued on its merry way toward a terrible Blow-Off Top of a nine-year Bubble-Blowing Bull Market that culminated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 400% from the 1921 lows to the 1929 highs.\n\nLearning from Soros\nBut looking back, it’s clear that both theories are equally right and wrong — the market crashed because the economy wasn’t as good as the market thought it was,andthe economy crashed because the markets shut down access to capital for investment and growth.\nIt was “reflexive,” to borrow a term from the great hedge fund manager George Soros.\nHe wrote, and the concept is important to understand:\n“I continued to consider myself a failed philosopher. All this changed as a result of the financial crisis of 2008. My conceptual framework enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck…\n“I can state the core idea in two relatively simple propositions. One is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ view of the world is always partial and distorted. That is the principle of fallibility. The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate because false views lead to inappropriate actions. That is the principle of reflexivity…\n“Recognizing reflexivity has been sacrificed to the vain pursuit of certainty in human affairs, most notably in economics, and yet, uncertainty is the key feature of human affairs. Economic theory is built on the concept of equilibrium, and that concept is in direct contradiction with the concept of reflexivity…\n“A positive feedback process is self-reinforcing. It cannot go on forever because eventually the participants’ views would become so far removed from objective reality that the participants would have to recognize them as unrealistic. Nor can the iterative process occur without any change in the actual state of affairs, because it is in the nature of positive feedback that it reinforces whatever tendency prevails in the real world. Instead of equilibrium, we are faced with a dynamic disequilibrium or what may be described as far-from-equilibrium conditions. Usually in far-from-equilibrium situations the divergence between perceptions and reality leads to a climax which sets in motion a positive feedback process in the opposite direction. Such initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating boom-bust processes or bubbles are characteristic of financial markets, but they can also be found in other spheres. There, I call them fertile fallacies—interpretations of reality that are distorted, yet produce results which reinforce the distortion.”\nStay flexible\nFar-from-equilibrium conditions was what we had in 2010-2013 when we loaded up on Revolutionary stocks and started buying cryptos like bitcoin. Far-from-equilibrium conditions might be what we have in front of us right now when I suggest getting cautious instead.\nWe don’t want to be permabulls. (You for sure don’t want to be a permabear!) We have to be flexible. We have to let our analysis and risk/reward scenarios dictate how much risk we’re taking and when. We have to pay attention to the cycles, the self-reinforcing cycles that drive economies and markets and valuations and earnings and societal interactions and bailouts and financial crises and bubbles and busts and, heaven forbid, just simple stagnation.\nIt’s as if everybody forgets that markets can bubble and crash and stagnate. They forget that markets can grind for years on end without making new highs, or without even making higher highs. Do you not remember telling your money manager sometime in 2010-2012 that “If I’d just handled the Great Financial Crisis (and/or the Dot-Com Crash) a little better, I’d be in better shape.” I used to hear people say that to me all the time. I haven’t heard anybody say that lately. Everybody’s having fun in this market … at least for now.\nMost traders will tell you that they are “just trading the market that is in front of them.” Well, I don’t know when the bubble will pop, but I do know that I don’t want to be on the wrong side of this market when it does. And I do know that we won’t know the bubble has really popped until the self-reinforcing reflexive feedback loop has made it painful for the vast majority of people who are right now feeling wealthy, feeling secure, feeling like they’ve got this trading and investing thing all figured out.\nWe are all fallible. Be careful while it’s fun. Be bold when it’s painful. That’s how I’ve done it for the last 25 years. We were boldly buying these assets when it was painful for others. I’m careful right now because everybody else is having fun.\nI spend a lot of time looking for new ideas and I won’t let my overall market outlook deter me from buying a new name or two. But I want to remain overall cautious and less aggressive than I have been for most of the last decade.\nAs a matter of fact, I might have at least a couple Trade Alerts that I’ll be sending out this week, one long and one short idea. Being flexible, see?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169850261,"gmtCreate":1623829282353,"gmtModify":1703820712113,"author":{"id":"3574523682370819","authorId":"3574523682370819","name":"flippz123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574523682370819","authorIdStr":"3574523682370819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169850261","repostId":"1179963706","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179963706","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623828183,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179963706?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 15:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Virgin Galactic Stock a Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179963706","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These shares aren't for the faint of heart.","content":"<p>The space industry is a high-potential, high-risk investment opportunity for investors willing to take the leap into some volatility.&nbsp;In the last year alone, the stock of&nbsp;<b>Virgin Galactic Holdings</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:SPCE)&nbsp;has jumped 300%,then fallen 75%, and more than&nbsp;doubled from recent lows. Investors who have held on for the ride have done well, but it hasn't been easy.</p>\n<p>More than even the highest flying&nbsp;growth stocks&nbsp;on the market, this is a boom-and-bust kind of investment right now. If Virgin Galactic succeeds, it could reshape the way we think about space. But if it fails, the company could end in disaster. Right now, I think it's worth the risk.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2bd0b3467fea65d95ded6ecb659b938\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1334\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: VIRGIN GALACTIC.</span></p>\n<p><b>What fundamentals?</b></p>\n<p>Before we get too far into Virgin Galactic's opportunities, it's important to point out that this is a pre-revenue company. It is burning cash in anticipation of generating revenue from research and from customer tickets for a quick trip into space, but it hasn't launched commercially yet.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51fd6129b14f307e5702187274edae41\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"435\"><span>SPCE REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS. TTM = TRAILING 12 MONTHS.</span></p>\n<p>Being a pre-revenue company isn't bad, but it shows just how early it is in its development.</p>\n<p><b>Building a new market in space</b></p>\n<p>The bullish case for Virgin Galactic is that it'll redefine how we think about space. For as little as $250,000, anyone can travel into space once commercial flights begin. That sounds like a lot of money, but think about how unattainable space seemed only a decade or two ago. Now, it just takes a big checkbook to get there. The flight is only a few minutes long, but it's a once-in-a-lifetime experience that has already attracted over 600 reservations.</p>\n<p>Management thinks that when operations are fully ramped up, a spaceport like the company has built in New Mexico will be able to generate $1 billion per year in revenue. Build a few spaceports around the world, and suddenly valuing the company at $8.7 billion (its market capitalization today) doesn't seem so crazy.</p>\n<p><b>High-speed travel is next</b></p>\n<p>In development is a Mach 3 aircraft that could take high-speed travel to a new level. While the current spacecraft being tested is meant for tourism, a Mach 3 aircraft could make global travel more efficient, reducing the flight&nbsp;from Los Angeles to Tokyo from 12 hours to three to four hours. And with a capacity of 9 to 19 seats, it would seem more like a flight on a private jet than the failed Concorde, which had a capacity of 92 to 128 passengers.</p>\n<p>We don't know if space tourism or mach-speed travel will succeed but imagine if they do. If thousands of people fly into space each year and it's commonplace to see videos of celebrities or wealthy people in a weightless atmosphere, it has the potential to shape how we view space tourism. At the same time, Virgin Galactic's design of reusable rockets could allow it to reduce costs to make space tourism possible to those willing to spend around $100,000 on a ticket. And that could truly change how we view space. That's the kind of disruption that would drive big gains for investors.</p>\n<p><b>Virgin Galactic is a buy, with risks</b></p>\n<p>The investment thesis for Virgin Galactic is pretty simple: Virgin Galactic could disrupt the way we think about visiting space and Mach-speed travel. Management thinks it can complete 400 space flights per year, generating $1 billion in revenue per spaceport, with the potential to build dozens of spaceports around the world. Long-term, the spaceports could also house mach-speed aircraft. If Virgin Galactic succeeds, the company could open up multibillion-dollar markets that don't exist today.</p>\n<p>As big as the opportunity is, the risks are hefty as well. A failure in testing or product development could sink the company. Today, I think the reward outweighs the risk, and a decade or two from now we'll all know of someone who has visited space. That potential shift in how we think about the universe around us makes this a company I'm excited to own, and follow, into the future.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Virgin Galactic Stock a Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Virgin Galactic Stock a Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 15:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/is-virgin-galactic-stock-a-buy/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The space industry is a high-potential, high-risk investment opportunity for investors willing to take the leap into some volatility. In the last year alone, the stock of Virgin Galactic Holdings (...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/is-virgin-galactic-stock-a-buy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/is-virgin-galactic-stock-a-buy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179963706","content_text":"The space industry is a high-potential, high-risk investment opportunity for investors willing to take the leap into some volatility. In the last year alone, the stock of Virgin Galactic Holdings (NYSE:SPCE) has jumped 300%,then fallen 75%, and more than doubled from recent lows. Investors who have held on for the ride have done well, but it hasn't been easy.\nMore than even the highest flying growth stocks on the market, this is a boom-and-bust kind of investment right now. If Virgin Galactic succeeds, it could reshape the way we think about space. But if it fails, the company could end in disaster. Right now, I think it's worth the risk.\nIMAGE SOURCE: VIRGIN GALACTIC.\nWhat fundamentals?\nBefore we get too far into Virgin Galactic's opportunities, it's important to point out that this is a pre-revenue company. It is burning cash in anticipation of generating revenue from research and from customer tickets for a quick trip into space, but it hasn't launched commercially yet.\nSPCE REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS. TTM = TRAILING 12 MONTHS.\nBeing a pre-revenue company isn't bad, but it shows just how early it is in its development.\nBuilding a new market in space\nThe bullish case for Virgin Galactic is that it'll redefine how we think about space. For as little as $250,000, anyone can travel into space once commercial flights begin. That sounds like a lot of money, but think about how unattainable space seemed only a decade or two ago. Now, it just takes a big checkbook to get there. The flight is only a few minutes long, but it's a once-in-a-lifetime experience that has already attracted over 600 reservations.\nManagement thinks that when operations are fully ramped up, a spaceport like the company has built in New Mexico will be able to generate $1 billion per year in revenue. Build a few spaceports around the world, and suddenly valuing the company at $8.7 billion (its market capitalization today) doesn't seem so crazy.\nHigh-speed travel is next\nIn development is a Mach 3 aircraft that could take high-speed travel to a new level. While the current spacecraft being tested is meant for tourism, a Mach 3 aircraft could make global travel more efficient, reducing the flight from Los Angeles to Tokyo from 12 hours to three to four hours. And with a capacity of 9 to 19 seats, it would seem more like a flight on a private jet than the failed Concorde, which had a capacity of 92 to 128 passengers.\nWe don't know if space tourism or mach-speed travel will succeed but imagine if they do. If thousands of people fly into space each year and it's commonplace to see videos of celebrities or wealthy people in a weightless atmosphere, it has the potential to shape how we view space tourism. At the same time, Virgin Galactic's design of reusable rockets could allow it to reduce costs to make space tourism possible to those willing to spend around $100,000 on a ticket. And that could truly change how we view space. That's the kind of disruption that would drive big gains for investors.\nVirgin Galactic is a buy, with risks\nThe investment thesis for Virgin Galactic is pretty simple: Virgin Galactic could disrupt the way we think about visiting space and Mach-speed travel. Management thinks it can complete 400 space flights per year, generating $1 billion in revenue per spaceport, with the potential to build dozens of spaceports around the world. Long-term, the spaceports could also house mach-speed aircraft. If Virgin Galactic succeeds, the company could open up multibillion-dollar markets that don't exist today.\nAs big as the opportunity is, the risks are hefty as well. A failure in testing or product development could sink the company. Today, I think the reward outweighs the risk, and a decade or two from now we'll all know of someone who has visited space. That potential shift in how we think about the universe around us makes this a company I'm excited to own, and follow, into the future.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169850606,"gmtCreate":1623829271305,"gmtModify":1703820711789,"author":{"id":"3574523682370819","authorId":"3574523682370819","name":"flippz123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574523682370819","authorIdStr":"3574523682370819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":":(","listText":":(","text":":(","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169850606","repostId":"1145814445","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145814445","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623828949,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145814445?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 15:35","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Air travel in Asia won’t return to pre-Covid levels ‘anytime soon,’ says Singapore minister","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145814445","media":"CNBC","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nSingapore’s Finance Minister Lawrence Wong said “open and free” air travel within Asia r","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nSingapore’s Finance Minister Lawrence Wong said “open and free” air travel within Asia remains unlikely in the near term as parts of the region battle with an increase in Covid-19 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/16/singapore-finance-minister-lawrence-wong-on-air-travel-covid-outbreak.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Air travel in Asia won’t return to pre-Covid levels ‘anytime soon,’ says Singapore minister</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAir travel in Asia won’t return to pre-Covid levels ‘anytime soon,’ says Singapore minister\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/16/singapore-finance-minister-lawrence-wong-on-air-travel-covid-outbreak.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nSingapore’s Finance Minister Lawrence Wong said “open and free” air travel within Asia remains unlikely in the near term as parts of the region battle with an increase in Covid-19 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/16/singapore-finance-minister-lawrence-wong-on-air-travel-covid-outbreak.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00293":"国泰航空","C6L.SI":"新加坡航空公司"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/16/singapore-finance-minister-lawrence-wong-on-air-travel-covid-outbreak.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1145814445","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nSingapore’s Finance Minister Lawrence Wong said “open and free” air travel within Asia remains unlikely in the near term as parts of the region battle with an increase in Covid-19 infections.\nInternational travel came to sudden halt in the past year due to the pandemic, and that’s hurt Singapore’s aviation and tourism sectors — two major contributors to economic growth.\nSingapore experienced a renewed rise in Covid cases last month, but tighter restrictions have been working and that allows the country to gradually open up again, said Wong.\n\nSINGAPORE — Singapore’s Finance Minister Lawrence Wong said “open and free” air travel in Asia remains unlikely in the near term as parts of the region battle with an increase in Covid-19 infections.\n“I am somewhat less sanguine about the prospects for air travel,” Wong told Martin Soong as part of the virtual CNBC Evolve Global Summit.\n“The region is still facing rolling waves of infection, and vaccination rates for many countries in the region are still not high enough. So I don’t think we will be able to see open and free travel in the region, in particular, any time soon,” said the minister who also co-chairs Singapore’s coronavirus task force.\nSingapore is a Southeast Asian city-state with no domestic air travel market. International travel came to a sudden halt in the past year due to the pandemic, and that’s hurt Singapore’s aviation and tourism sectors — two major contributors to economic growth.\nWong said the Singapore government continues to talk with its counterparts in the region about setting up “safe travel lanes.” He didn’t name the places Singapore is in talks.\n“Perhaps amongst the countries with low and stable infections, we may have some travel arrangements. Perhaps for vaccinated travelers, there may be some benefits in terms of shorter quarantine times,” said the minister.\n“But for the most part ... all of that is not going to add up to what we used to have pre-Covid. So air travel, I’m afraid, will take some time to recover,” Wong added.\n\nSingapore has an air travel bubble agreement with Hong Kong that will allowtravelers to skip quarantine. But the launch of the scheme has been postponed twice — first from November and then again in May — due to renewed Covid outbreaks in either cities.\nLast week, the prime ministers of Singapore and Australia said they will work toward an air travel bubble arrangement between the two countries.\nSingapore’s Covid situation\nAsia, where the coronavirus was first detected, saw a spike in infections in recent months. Places ranging from developing nations to more developed economies including Japan and Taiwan had a resurgence in cases.\nSingapore also experienced a renewed rise in cases last month after previous successes in containing the outbreak — which led the government to tighten social-distancing measures.\nWong said those measures have been working and that allows the country to gradually ease restrictions again. But he warned that the situation could be unpredictable.\n“You know, with this virus, you can never tell what happens in the next few days, because … there will always be surprises. It’s a very tricky virus. Each time you think you have it under control, it pops up in a new direction,” said Wong.\nThe minister reiterated the government’s goal of having at least 50% of the population fully vaccinated by August.\nSingapore appears on track to meet that goal. Around 2.7 million people — or 47% of the country’s population — have received at least the first dose of Covid vaccine as of Monday, according to the latest health ministry data.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169824422,"gmtCreate":1623829173566,"gmtModify":1703820709165,"author":{"id":"3574523682370819","authorId":"3574523682370819","name":"flippz123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574523682370819","authorIdStr":"3574523682370819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169824422","repostId":"2143762945","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143762945","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623825420,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2143762945?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 14:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ericsson Mobility Report: More than half a billion 5G subscriptions by the end of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143762945","media":"StreetInsider","summary":"KISTA, Sweden, June 16, 2021 /PRNewswire/ --\n\n5G remains on track to become the fastest adopted mobi","content":"<p>KISTA, Sweden, June 16, 2021 /PRNewswire/ --</p>\n<ul>\n <li>5G remains on track to become the fastest adopted mobile generation in history with subscriptions increasing at a rate of about a million per day</li>\n <li>China, North America and the Gulf Cooperation Council markets are leading the way on subscriber numbers, while Europe is off to a slow start</li>\n <li>5G subscriptions with a 5G-capable device grew by 70 million during the first quarter of 2021 and are forecast to reach 580 million by the end of 2021</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) projects that 5G mobile subscriptions will exceed 580 million by the end of 2021, driven by an estimated <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> million new 5G mobile subscriptions every day.</p>\n<p>The forecast, which features in the twentieth edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report, enhances the expectation that 5G will become the fastest adopted mobile generation. About 3.5 billion 5G subscriptions and 60 percent 5G population coverage are forecast by the end of 2026.</p>\n<p>However, the pace of adoption varies widely by region. Europe is off to a slower start and has continued to fall far behind China, the U.S., Korea, Japan and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets in the pace of 5G deployments.</p>\n<p>5G is expected to surpass a billion subscriptions two years ahead of the 4G LTE timeline for the same milestone. Key factors behind that include China's earlier commitment to 5G and the earlier availability and increasing affordability of commercial 5G devices. More than 300 5G smartphone models have already been announced or launched commercially.</p>\n<p>This commercial 5G momentum is expected to continue in coming years, spurred by the enhanced role of connectivity as a key component of post-COVID-19 economic recovery.</p>\n<p>North East Asia is expected to account for the largest share of 5G subscriptions by 2026, with an estimated 1.4 billion 5G subscriptions. While North American and GCC markets are expected to account for the highest 5G subscription penetration, with 5G mobile subscriptions comprising 84 percent and 73 percent of all regional mobile subscriptions respectively.</p>\n<p>Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President and Head of Networks, Ericsson, says: \"This landmark twentieth edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report shows that we are in the next phase of 5G, with accelerating roll-outs and coverage expansion in pioneer markets such as China, the USA and South Korea. Now is the time for advanced use cases to start materializing and deliver on the promise of 5G. Businesses and societies are also preparing for a post-pandemic world, with 5G-powered digitalization playing a critical role.\"</p>\n<p><b>Smartphones and video driving mobile data traffic</b></p>\n<p>Data traffic continues to grow year on year. One exabyte (EB) comprises 1,000,000,000 (1 billion) gigabytes (GB). Global mobile data traffic - excluding traffic generated by fixed wireless access (FWA) - exceeded 49 EB per month at the end of 2020 and is projected to grow by a factor of close to 5 to reach 237 EB per month in 2026. Smartphones, which currently carry 95 percent of this traffic, are also consuming more data than ever. Globally, the average usage-per-smartphone now exceeds 10 GB/month and is forecast to reach 35 GB/month by the end of 2026.</p>\n<p><b>5G Communications Service Providers at the forefront of Fixed Wireless Access adoption</b></p>\n<p>The COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating digitalization and increasing the importance of - and the need for - reliable, high-speed mobile broadband connectivity. According to the latest report, almost nine out of ten communications service providers (CSPs) that have launched 5G also have a fixed wireless access (FWA) offering (4G and/or 5G), even in markets with high fiber penetration. This is needed to accommodate increasing FWA traffic, which the report forecasts to grow by a factor of seven to reach 64 EB in 2026.</p>\n<p><b>Massive IoT on the rise</b></p>\n<p>Massive IoT technology (NB-IoT and Cat-M) connections are forecast to increase by almost 80 percent during 2021, reaching almost 330 million connections. In 2026, these technologies are forecast to comprise 46 percent of all cellular IoT connections.</p>\n<p><b>A closer look: The Gulf Cooperation Council</b></p>\n<p>The report features breakout statistics from GCC markets where government-sponsored digital initiatives are accelerating both technological innovation and expected 5G uptake. In 2019, GCC markets were among the first in the world to launch commercial 5G services. By 2026, they are forecast to manage a combined 62 million 5G subscriptions, accounting for the second highest 5G market penetration globally.</p>\n<p><b>This edition of Ericsson Mobility Report includes four feature articles:</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>T-Mobile pursues a multiband strategy</li>\n <li>Businesses build 5G on Wireless WAN foundation</li>\n <li>AI: enhancing customer experience in a complex 5G world</li>\n <li>Planning in-building coverage for 5G: from rules of thumb to statistics and AI</li>\n</ul>","source":"highlight_streetinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ericsson Mobility Report: More than half a billion 5G subscriptions by the end of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEricsson Mobility Report: More than half a billion 5G subscriptions by the end of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 14:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18564855><strong>StreetInsider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KISTA, Sweden, June 16, 2021 /PRNewswire/ --\n\n5G remains on track to become the fastest adopted mobile generation in history with subscriptions increasing at a rate of about a million per day\nChina, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18564855\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18564855","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143762945","content_text":"KISTA, Sweden, June 16, 2021 /PRNewswire/ --\n\n5G remains on track to become the fastest adopted mobile generation in history with subscriptions increasing at a rate of about a million per day\nChina, North America and the Gulf Cooperation Council markets are leading the way on subscriber numbers, while Europe is off to a slow start\n5G subscriptions with a 5G-capable device grew by 70 million during the first quarter of 2021 and are forecast to reach 580 million by the end of 2021\n\nEricsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) projects that 5G mobile subscriptions will exceed 580 million by the end of 2021, driven by an estimated one million new 5G mobile subscriptions every day.\nThe forecast, which features in the twentieth edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report, enhances the expectation that 5G will become the fastest adopted mobile generation. About 3.5 billion 5G subscriptions and 60 percent 5G population coverage are forecast by the end of 2026.\nHowever, the pace of adoption varies widely by region. Europe is off to a slower start and has continued to fall far behind China, the U.S., Korea, Japan and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets in the pace of 5G deployments.\n5G is expected to surpass a billion subscriptions two years ahead of the 4G LTE timeline for the same milestone. Key factors behind that include China's earlier commitment to 5G and the earlier availability and increasing affordability of commercial 5G devices. More than 300 5G smartphone models have already been announced or launched commercially.\nThis commercial 5G momentum is expected to continue in coming years, spurred by the enhanced role of connectivity as a key component of post-COVID-19 economic recovery.\nNorth East Asia is expected to account for the largest share of 5G subscriptions by 2026, with an estimated 1.4 billion 5G subscriptions. While North American and GCC markets are expected to account for the highest 5G subscription penetration, with 5G mobile subscriptions comprising 84 percent and 73 percent of all regional mobile subscriptions respectively.\nFredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President and Head of Networks, Ericsson, says: \"This landmark twentieth edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report shows that we are in the next phase of 5G, with accelerating roll-outs and coverage expansion in pioneer markets such as China, the USA and South Korea. Now is the time for advanced use cases to start materializing and deliver on the promise of 5G. Businesses and societies are also preparing for a post-pandemic world, with 5G-powered digitalization playing a critical role.\"\nSmartphones and video driving mobile data traffic\nData traffic continues to grow year on year. One exabyte (EB) comprises 1,000,000,000 (1 billion) gigabytes (GB). Global mobile data traffic - excluding traffic generated by fixed wireless access (FWA) - exceeded 49 EB per month at the end of 2020 and is projected to grow by a factor of close to 5 to reach 237 EB per month in 2026. Smartphones, which currently carry 95 percent of this traffic, are also consuming more data than ever. Globally, the average usage-per-smartphone now exceeds 10 GB/month and is forecast to reach 35 GB/month by the end of 2026.\n5G Communications Service Providers at the forefront of Fixed Wireless Access adoption\nThe COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating digitalization and increasing the importance of - and the need for - reliable, high-speed mobile broadband connectivity. According to the latest report, almost nine out of ten communications service providers (CSPs) that have launched 5G also have a fixed wireless access (FWA) offering (4G and/or 5G), even in markets with high fiber penetration. This is needed to accommodate increasing FWA traffic, which the report forecasts to grow by a factor of seven to reach 64 EB in 2026.\nMassive IoT on the rise\nMassive IoT technology (NB-IoT and Cat-M) connections are forecast to increase by almost 80 percent during 2021, reaching almost 330 million connections. In 2026, these technologies are forecast to comprise 46 percent of all cellular IoT connections.\nA closer look: The Gulf Cooperation Council\nThe report features breakout statistics from GCC markets where government-sponsored digital initiatives are accelerating both technological innovation and expected 5G uptake. In 2019, GCC markets were among the first in the world to launch commercial 5G services. By 2026, they are forecast to manage a combined 62 million 5G subscriptions, accounting for the second highest 5G market penetration globally.\nThis edition of Ericsson Mobility Report includes four feature articles:\n\nT-Mobile pursues a multiband strategy\nBusinesses build 5G on Wireless WAN foundation\nAI: enhancing customer experience in a complex 5G world\nPlanning in-building coverage for 5G: from rules of thumb to statistics and AI","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187409522,"gmtCreate":1623760793166,"gmtModify":1703818418755,"author":{"id":"3574523682370819","authorId":"3574523682370819","name":"flippz123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574523682370819","authorIdStr":"3574523682370819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187409522","repostId":"1193778475","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193778475","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623749978,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193778475?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 17:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix: The Selloff Looks Overdone","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193778475","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNetflix has been unreasonably sold down and unjustifiably cited as losing its competitive e","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Netflix has been unreasonably sold down and unjustifiably cited as losing its competitive edge due to weaker Q1’21 membership adds.</li>\n <li>However, short-sighted investors did not consider Netflix’s overall game to evaluate the strength of its moat.</li>\n <li>Netflix looks attractively-priced now, and should be a worthy addition to both value and growth investors.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Netflix (NFLX) has come under the weather recently, as the company had to face increased competitive pressure from the growth of Disney+, recent industry consolidation fromWarner Bros. Discovery(T,DISCA) and Amazon's (AMZN)acquisition of MGM's deep content IP. Furthermore, the company also reported an\"underwhelming\" Q1'21results that saw the company even missing its own net membership adds estimates by 2m. In short, there seems to be no shortage of bad news for NFLX recently.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d9e43b35cbdb0cbc2330837c796371\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: TradingView</p>\n<p>Therefore, it's not surprising to me at all that Mr. Market reacted somewhat negatively to all these competitive headwinds as NFLX remains about 18% off its January high, while QQQ is withintouching distance of its all time high. As a price-action, momentum based investor, seeing a stock that has demonstrated strong medium term and long term uptrend bias is of paramount importance to me and NFLX certainly checks all of that from this perspective. Although there are other growth stocks that have demonstrated a better uptrend bias profile, NFLX is not a slouch either. It has only lost its medium term 50W MA dynamic support only twice in the last 5 years: 2018 bear market decline of 45%, and Jul-Sep 19 decline of 35%. Even though the stock momentarily lost its 50W support level then, NFLX quickly regained its medium term support level, and during the COVID-19 bear market, NFLX never lost support of its medium term uptrend. Therefore, the 50W MA has proven to be a consistently strong medium term dynamic support level for NFLX over the last 5 years.</p>\n<p>NFLX's price has now approached its 50W support level again thanks to the weak market sentiments lately which makes it appropriate to discuss whether NFLX represents a good buying opportunity now for long term investors.</p>\n<p><b>So What Happened to Netflix's Paid Adds?</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d1ce1d66e99396f67725dcfdaf3db8\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Average Paying Membership by Region. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ca327a13d9645fce263565653d4e390\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Average Paying Membership YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p>As we could observe clearly from the charts above, the market reacted negatively to NFLX's Q1'21 results, sending the stock down 8.21% the day after the release. It added just 3.98M net paid members in Q1'21, which was significantly weaker than the previous quarters as can be seen from its YoY Growth. The management mainly attributed this to the strong pull forward growth in membership during Q1'20 that has somewhat skewed the base upwards and may have disproportionately affected its growth in Q1'21. Although I think there is a reasonable basis for that line of argument, however we did not observe such a drastic decline in Roku, Inc. (ROKU) in its active accounts in Q1'21 (see charts below).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e96b19f4b3eef87be93ecce3953a19\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Roku Active Accounts. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f4053e2022d4c90e8b8ec51c1fc295\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Roku Active Accounts YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p>We could clearly observe Roku's Active accounts YoY growth of 34.7% in Q1'21 to be still largely in line with 2019's growth even though Roku also experienced pull forward growth from COVID-19 last year. Therefore, I think there is a reasonable basis to infer that NFLX's paid adds growth seemed to have slowed down pretty dramatically even though it should be noted that NFLX's net paid membership of 208M significantly outnumbered Roku's 53.6M active accounts and that was not a small difference.</p>\n<p>Now, if you are a short term trader or an \"investor\" with a horizon of 1 quarter, then perhaps it may be a reasonable basis to get out of the stock. However, for long term investors, many of whom NFLX has handsomely rewarded over the last ten years, we need to dig deeper to investigate whether there has been a significant change in its long term competitive moat from the latest quarter's aberration that may significantly change NFLX's ability to compete effectively and weaken the competitive dynamics of its business model.</p>\n<p><b>Revenue Growth Looks Good</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8c6ed8cb94d2134ca5d0d79660ece07\" tg-width=\"1184\" tg-height=\"732\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Revenue by Region. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ee95424dd68c5abe3591347f9dd9fad\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Revenue by Region YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p>First up, let's take a look at its revenue by region performance. We could observe clearly that the company's most important revenue drivers: UCAN and EMEA had YoY revenue growth of 17.3% and 36% in Q1'21, respectively, as compared to 19.8% and 39.7% in Q1'20, respectively. Sure, there was a slight blip in its YoY growth rate in Q1'21, but it was still very much in line with Q4'20 YoY numbers (which Mr. Market cheered by pushing the stock up 17.74% the day after earnings release), so it was nothing too significant that warranted a serious look into its competitiveness. Moreover, its fastest growing region: APAC also looked to have performed well with a 57.6% YoY growth rate that was even better than Q1'20's YoY growth rate of 51.3%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/298a4247dfc847726b87f80e24cc874f\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>ARPU by Region. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce59d0df25c1a8b2fde74a772c918433\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>ARPU by Region YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p>NFLX also performed admirably well in its ARPU. ARPU was up in all the regions except for LATAM where the growth was flat on a QoQ basis. Although ARPU growth was quite volatile between quarters, ARPU in UCAN, EMEA and APAC went up by 8.4%, 11.5% and 9% in Q1'21, respectively. Even though LATAM's ARPU was down YoY, but on a QoQ basis it was flat, so there was nothing materially serious to take note here. Therefore, NFLX's ARPU performance looked really good in Q1'21.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bee3698456324209ed6c9cf58bed58da\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"995\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Timeline of NFLX Price Hikes. Source:Variety</p>\n<p>If NFLX had faced intense competitive pressure in the past that forced it into a price war with competing platforms as it acquired more users, we would have seen the company forced to reduce its prices over time. On the contrary, NFLX has been increasing its prices steadily over time, with the latest round of price hikes on October 20. Even though there were some knee-jerk cancellations from some subscribers in the short term over the price hikes, over the long term it has never affected the company's ability to attract more users. This shows NFLX's strong competitive moat that gives it a huge ability to raise prices over time without losing its subscribers. In fact,NFLX well encapsulatedits strong ability to retain its subscribers despite the price hikes:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Our churn is actually below pre-price change levels already in the U.S. and in most of the markets and where we have adjusted prices and just some of the newer ones haven't come all the way back down, but they're rapidly getting there.\n</blockquote>\n<p>These well-planned price increases are extremely beneficial to NFLX's topline, given NFLX's growing subscriber base as the recent price increase is expected toadd $500Mto NFLX's revenue in FY 21 (consensus: $29.72B). Even though it's not a significant sum as compared to the revenue base, however more importantly it demonstrated clearly that NFLX has considerable pricing power in a highly competitive SVOD segment.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42059a78e3a3f7dc656556dc27761343\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"958\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Top Reasons for Video Streaming Subscription Cancellations. Source:Variety</p>\n<p>When we consider that the single most important reason for subscribers to cancel their streaming subscriptions is: \"If the subscription price increased\", then investors should now be able to really understand how Mr. Market has significantly underestimated NFLX's pricing power, which is extremely important to NFLX's business model to introduce more and more high quality content as its subscriber base gets larger over time.</p>\n<p>If we revisit NFLX's ARPU by region again, we could certainly see a generally healthy trend of ARPU over time even as the company increased its prices. It's important to note that increasing subscriptions prices is the primary way for it to further monetize its growing user base (although the company has also recently introduced more monetization methods such asNetflix shop, as well as thegaming market, so investors are highly encouraged to continue monitoring these developments). The price increases will help to bolster the consistency of the ARPU such that it would help with times when the company has found some difficulty in adding more users such as in Q1'21, while YoY revenue growth was still very healthy.</p>\n<p>Investors should take note that NFLX's growing membership base of 208M paying members is a formidable moat for it to keep producing its slate of high quality original content.</p>\n<p>Strong Content Pipeline</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02eea9bd487d52b352dd3894f2563edf\" tg-width=\"1043\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Content Assets. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a49a1facb41f2c4e848cced7724c68d\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Produced Content YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p>NFLX has been growing its original content base rapidly over the last few years, although the COVID-19 crisis has somewhat slowed down its growth. Thecompany emphasized:</p>\n<blockquote>\n [W]e think we'll get back to a much steadier state in the back half of the year and certainly in Q4, where we've got the returning seasons of some of our most popular shows like The Witcher and You and Cobra Kai as well as some big tempo movies that came to market a little slower than we'd hoped, like Red Notes with The Rock and Ryan Reynolds and Gaga, and Escape From Spiderhead with Chris Hemsworth, big event content.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Therefore, the company is not resting on its laurels and would keep on its record of producing high quality content to keep engagement at a high level with its viewers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4aaf52a7c9c18a4fc5664c9000282d1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"781\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Ranking of original streaming series titles in the U.S. Data Source: Nielsen, Media Play News</p>\n<p>In this survey conducted in early May, NFLX's slate of original series took home 7 out of the top 10 slots for the most watched series, demonstrating the high quality and appeal of its content with viewers. In fact, there were many other surveys that also showed Netflix's dominance in viewership over time.</p>\n<p>Netflix's original content didn't just dominate hours watched, but also award nominations. The company highlighted its recent achievements:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Netflix led all studios for recent award nominations including the Oscars, Golden Globes, SAG Awards, BAFTA and the NAACP Image Awards, among others. Heading into the Academy Awards this weekend, we have 36 nominations across 17 films including two nominees in each of the Best Picture (Mank, The Trial of the Chicago 7), Best Documentary Feature (Crip Camp, My Octopus Teacher), and Best Animated Feature (Over the Moon, A Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon) categories. Mank led all films with 10 nominations.\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a756085b63c0d9b1e40d39f3fd21609\" tg-width=\"764\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Reasons for subscribing to SVOD services in the U.S. Data Source: Vorhaus Advisors</p>\n<p>As we could observe from the above, high quality original series (35%) and specific TV series or movies (43%) ranked very highly on the reasons for subscribing to SVOD services, and investors can rest assured that NFLX is certainly leading in these areas.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afa2be3ca5cfa415aee98a9c45f8e6c9\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Share of SVOD subscribers, who also subscribe to other services. Data Source: Reelgood</p>\n<p>In the SVOD space, we could clearly observe NFLX's importance to subscribers even if they subscribed to other services, which definitely helps to downplay the significance of increasing competitive threats to NFLX. In fact, NFLX was the most important service among these subscribers as the subscribers of the company's competitors also subscribed to NFLX: Peacock Premium (90%), HBO Max (90%), Amazon Prime (84%), Disney+ (87%), Hulu (85%) and Apple TV+ (92%), demonstrating clearly the importance and dominance of NFLX to its competitors' subscribers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2c1e2c429e015e113242ffeac4d3f07\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Netflix Video Content Budget. Data Source: eMarketer</p>\n<p>Many critics also pointed to NFLX's increasing need to dedicate huge amounts of investments to drive its engagement levels, protect its moat, grow its revenue. In fact, I think unless NFLX is working on a model like Roku, whose business model I havediscussed recently here, having a high quality slate of original content is important in order to maintain its competitive edge, especially when we have witnessed a series of industry consolidation where NFLX may lose more and more access to high quality licensed content, so NFLX's committed investments in original content a few years ago led by Co-CEO Ted Sarandos has certainly been a masterstroke that has helped maintain the company's competitive edge. In addition, NFLX has been getting more and more efficient in producing original content over time, certainly helped by the large and growing paying membership base, which as I mentioned in itself is a strong moat.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e592ee98fcd2477f5e9332e664c74afa\" tg-width=\"1153\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Other Operating Activities [LTM] as a % of Revenue [LTM]. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p>\n<p>NFLX's other operating activities segment mainly include the company's investments in content assets which are classified as a cash outflow in the company's Cash from Operations [CFO]. If we observed clearly, despite the company's increasing video content budget, these investments have been forming a smaller and smaller component of the company's revenue from 2018 (even if we were to exclude the skewed figures from recent quarters due to reduced original content being produced as a result of COVID-19 delays), demonstrating the company's improved CFO position that has driven results towards FCF profitability. As a result, this allowed the company to confidently declare to investors that: \"So we expect to be about cash flow breakeven this year and then sustainably free cash flow positive and growing thereafter.\" This is definitely a highly important development, as that means NFLX now has more and more cash flow flexibility to invest in content to further drive its competitive edge against its closest rivals. The company's expected FCF profitability has also given the company confidence to announce a $5B share buyback in order to return excess cash to investors.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee2072e791610e16b97ed6d432f1fcb9\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Projected Revenue Consensus Estimates, Projected Revenue Growth, Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p>\n<p>In fact, when I factored in NFLX's growth assumptions into its forecast model, NFLX is expected to consistently improve its FCF margin in the years ahead, while maintaining a steady revenue growth over time. NFLX is fast becoming a FCF driver that is capable of sustaining its growth and protecting its competitive moat strongly.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cbb70240f511c861aa1e4fd5b8c00d\" tg-width=\"893\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">SVOD market share in Japan. Data Source: GEM Partners</p>\n<p>Turning to NFLX's fastest growing region: APAC (shortsighted investors seemed to ignore NFLX's dominance in this region). There's absolutely no doubt who was the clear leader in the SVOD market in Japan with NFLX holding a 19.5% market share. In fact, Japan was expected to take over Australia as APAC'slargest market by the end of 2021. Japan's revenue is expected to grow at about 37% YoY from $2.4B to $3.3B, and subscriptions from 25.5M to 33.3M, which would represent a 30.6% increase YoY.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d5751919369a578902516e76f5793a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Most popular OTT in Korea. Data Source: IGAWorks</p>\n<p>In its third largest APAC market: Korea, NFLX is also the well-established leader with a market share well ahead of the other OTT services, allowing the company a lot of leverage in producing top quality original Korean content. Korean content is very popular in Asia, and Netflix relies heavily on the Korean Wave (Hallyu) as the main gateway to audiences in Asia and has committed$500M to invest in Korean content in 2021 alone, from $700M spent between 2015 to 2020. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos summed up the company's approach in Korean content:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Over the last two years, we've seen the world falling in love with incredible Korean content</b>, made in Korea and watched by the world on Netflix. Our commitment towards Korea is strong. We will continue to invest and collaborate with Korean storytellers across a wealth of genres and formats.\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06889e84d7faf18b5d1a8da1b4542895\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Popular OTT for accessing Korean Dramas Worldwide. Data Source: Korean Foundation for International Cultural Exchange; MCST Korea</p>\n<p>Netflix's commitment to build up its investments in Korean content has allowed it to maintain a strong position as the second ranked OTT platform behind YouTube for worldwide access to Korean dramas mainly because in my opinion, AVOD-based YouTube is free. However, Netflix has produced a lot of Original Series Korean dramas that have often quickly become a hit, and which were not available for distribution on YouTube.</p>\n<p>The Elephant in the Room: Disney</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb61cee21092f710c0e1446f1d598d2\" tg-width=\"1207\" tg-height=\"746\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Estimated number of SVOD subscribers worldwide. Data Source: Digital TV Research</p>\n<p>Disney (DIS) perhaps represents the largest threat in terms of subscribers growth as it's expected to take over NFLX as the largest SVOD player worldwide by 2026 with 294M subscribers as compared to NFLX's 286M subscribers.</p>\n<p>DIS has grown its subscribers base impressively as it reached103.6M subscribers in Q2'21. DIS's Hotstar platform is the dominant platform in two of Asia's most populated countries: Indonesia and India. This is expected to continue driving strong subscribers growth that would help it to exceed NFLX's subscriber base eventually.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30f463be13597df4819879aa4b894285\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>DIS+ ARPU. Data Source: Company Filings</p>\n<p>However, DIS's ARPU is also substantially lower than NFLX as Hotstar is very much a lower-priced offering and therefore skewing DIS's ARPU to the downside even as it adds more users. However, Hotstar looks like the better equipped option for growth in these two important Asian markets for DIS and I think DISpossesses the edge over here.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f805876a22e4da556a27db39e6cdc8\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Estimated penetration rate. Data Source: The Motley Fool, Stifel</p>\n<p>However, NFLX is still expected to make inroads in all its segments, and particularly in APAC and EMEA as it continues to drive content growth to cater to the markets where it has the lead. l certainly think NFLX can't win in all markets, and in some markets the company definitely has to spend a lot more time and resources to develop them such as in APAC where its penetration is still very low, therefore offering huge potential for growth.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20878384ca9242ab35b248fb2b73ff6f\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>OTT Revenue Worldwide. Data Source: Digital TV Research</p>\n<p>Most importantly, the whole market still offers a lot of opportunities for growth for well positioned players in both the AVOD and the SVOD space. In the SVOD market, it is expected to grow at about 10.16% CAGR from 2020 to 2025, which although not as fast as the AVOD market, it's still expected to grow at a highly respectable rate.</p>\n<p><b>Valuations are Not Expensive</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d390f14679f74fb62a364d0921d5923\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Revenue CAGR and Revenue Multiples. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p>\n<p>NFLX's projected growth (5Y CAGR of 15.1%) is definitely expected to slow as it matures, and turn FCF profitable. I don't think it's a bad thing. NFLX is still the dominant player in SVOD and expected to be so. In addition, it's still expected to grow faster than the SVOD market growth of 10.1%, thus further reinforcing NFLX's market leadership expectation. In addition, it's also trading at a slight discount on its EV / FY+1 Rev of 7.8x as compared to its 5Y Av. EV / LTM Rev of 8.8x.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becc49bc5dfbfa222226bd7426fd4e9e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>CapEX Margin &amp; Projected CapEx Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c44673eb90f5086b3eeae98397e1115f\" tg-width=\"1276\" tg-height=\"1122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>5Y Av. EV / EBITDA &amp; EV / Fwd EBITDA. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p>\n<p>Given that its CapEX margins (see above) are expected to be largely consistent over time as compared to the last few years, I also find it useful to consider its cash flow generating capacity and value it accordingly. When we consider NFLX's EV / Fwd EBITDA (see above), we could see the company's improved FCF generating capability has now made NFLX a lot more undervalued than when we compared it against its revenue growth.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e39e44f4f13ac6efc0b91aed6045771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>EV / Fwd (EBITDA - CapEx). Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p>\n<p>In fact, NFLX is expected to continue generating a high level FCF moving forward which would thus further support the NFLX's competitive valuation from the FCF point of view.</p>\n<p>Price Action and Technical Analysis</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da4bd6973d2fa92a51a7b159b05efce\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: TradingView</p>\n<p>The current price level at $489 is a possible entry point, with a more conservative entry point at $458. The \"Buy more\" entry point is at $398, which is also supported above the key 200W MA. Avoid buying near $563 and $593 in the near term as they look to be key resistance levels.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping it all up</b></p>\n<p>Netflix's \"loss of competitiveness\" and \"weak fundamentals\" that were called into question recently are largely unfounded. The company enjoys strong dominance and competitive advantages in the SVOD market that is still expected to grow at double digit growth rates of which NFLX is expected to exploit in the years ahead.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix: The Selloff Looks Overdone</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix: The Selloff Looks Overdone\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 17:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434692-netflix-the-sell-off-looks-overdone-nflx><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNetflix has been unreasonably sold down and unjustifiably cited as losing its competitive edge due to weaker Q1’21 membership adds.\nHowever, short-sighted investors did not consider Netflix’s...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434692-netflix-the-sell-off-looks-overdone-nflx\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434692-netflix-the-sell-off-looks-overdone-nflx","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1193778475","content_text":"Summary\n\nNetflix has been unreasonably sold down and unjustifiably cited as losing its competitive edge due to weaker Q1’21 membership adds.\nHowever, short-sighted investors did not consider Netflix’s overall game to evaluate the strength of its moat.\nNetflix looks attractively-priced now, and should be a worthy addition to both value and growth investors.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nNetflix (NFLX) has come under the weather recently, as the company had to face increased competitive pressure from the growth of Disney+, recent industry consolidation fromWarner Bros. Discovery(T,DISCA) and Amazon's (AMZN)acquisition of MGM's deep content IP. Furthermore, the company also reported an\"underwhelming\" Q1'21results that saw the company even missing its own net membership adds estimates by 2m. In short, there seems to be no shortage of bad news for NFLX recently.\n\nSource: TradingView\nTherefore, it's not surprising to me at all that Mr. Market reacted somewhat negatively to all these competitive headwinds as NFLX remains about 18% off its January high, while QQQ is withintouching distance of its all time high. As a price-action, momentum based investor, seeing a stock that has demonstrated strong medium term and long term uptrend bias is of paramount importance to me and NFLX certainly checks all of that from this perspective. Although there are other growth stocks that have demonstrated a better uptrend bias profile, NFLX is not a slouch either. It has only lost its medium term 50W MA dynamic support only twice in the last 5 years: 2018 bear market decline of 45%, and Jul-Sep 19 decline of 35%. Even though the stock momentarily lost its 50W support level then, NFLX quickly regained its medium term support level, and during the COVID-19 bear market, NFLX never lost support of its medium term uptrend. Therefore, the 50W MA has proven to be a consistently strong medium term dynamic support level for NFLX over the last 5 years.\nNFLX's price has now approached its 50W support level again thanks to the weak market sentiments lately which makes it appropriate to discuss whether NFLX represents a good buying opportunity now for long term investors.\nSo What Happened to Netflix's Paid Adds?\n\nAverage Paying Membership by Region. Data Source: Company Filings\n\nAverage Paying Membership YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nAs we could observe clearly from the charts above, the market reacted negatively to NFLX's Q1'21 results, sending the stock down 8.21% the day after the release. It added just 3.98M net paid members in Q1'21, which was significantly weaker than the previous quarters as can be seen from its YoY Growth. The management mainly attributed this to the strong pull forward growth in membership during Q1'20 that has somewhat skewed the base upwards and may have disproportionately affected its growth in Q1'21. Although I think there is a reasonable basis for that line of argument, however we did not observe such a drastic decline in Roku, Inc. (ROKU) in its active accounts in Q1'21 (see charts below).\n\nRoku Active Accounts. Data Source: Company Filings\n\nRoku Active Accounts YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nWe could clearly observe Roku's Active accounts YoY growth of 34.7% in Q1'21 to be still largely in line with 2019's growth even though Roku also experienced pull forward growth from COVID-19 last year. Therefore, I think there is a reasonable basis to infer that NFLX's paid adds growth seemed to have slowed down pretty dramatically even though it should be noted that NFLX's net paid membership of 208M significantly outnumbered Roku's 53.6M active accounts and that was not a small difference.\nNow, if you are a short term trader or an \"investor\" with a horizon of 1 quarter, then perhaps it may be a reasonable basis to get out of the stock. However, for long term investors, many of whom NFLX has handsomely rewarded over the last ten years, we need to dig deeper to investigate whether there has been a significant change in its long term competitive moat from the latest quarter's aberration that may significantly change NFLX's ability to compete effectively and weaken the competitive dynamics of its business model.\nRevenue Growth Looks Good\n\nRevenue by Region. Data Source: Company Filings\n\nRevenue by Region YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nFirst up, let's take a look at its revenue by region performance. We could observe clearly that the company's most important revenue drivers: UCAN and EMEA had YoY revenue growth of 17.3% and 36% in Q1'21, respectively, as compared to 19.8% and 39.7% in Q1'20, respectively. Sure, there was a slight blip in its YoY growth rate in Q1'21, but it was still very much in line with Q4'20 YoY numbers (which Mr. Market cheered by pushing the stock up 17.74% the day after earnings release), so it was nothing too significant that warranted a serious look into its competitiveness. Moreover, its fastest growing region: APAC also looked to have performed well with a 57.6% YoY growth rate that was even better than Q1'20's YoY growth rate of 51.3%.\n\nARPU by Region. Data Source: Company Filings\n\nARPU by Region YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nNFLX also performed admirably well in its ARPU. ARPU was up in all the regions except for LATAM where the growth was flat on a QoQ basis. Although ARPU growth was quite volatile between quarters, ARPU in UCAN, EMEA and APAC went up by 8.4%, 11.5% and 9% in Q1'21, respectively. Even though LATAM's ARPU was down YoY, but on a QoQ basis it was flat, so there was nothing materially serious to take note here. Therefore, NFLX's ARPU performance looked really good in Q1'21.\n\nTimeline of NFLX Price Hikes. Source:Variety\nIf NFLX had faced intense competitive pressure in the past that forced it into a price war with competing platforms as it acquired more users, we would have seen the company forced to reduce its prices over time. On the contrary, NFLX has been increasing its prices steadily over time, with the latest round of price hikes on October 20. Even though there were some knee-jerk cancellations from some subscribers in the short term over the price hikes, over the long term it has never affected the company's ability to attract more users. This shows NFLX's strong competitive moat that gives it a huge ability to raise prices over time without losing its subscribers. In fact,NFLX well encapsulatedits strong ability to retain its subscribers despite the price hikes:\n\n Our churn is actually below pre-price change levels already in the U.S. and in most of the markets and where we have adjusted prices and just some of the newer ones haven't come all the way back down, but they're rapidly getting there.\n\nThese well-planned price increases are extremely beneficial to NFLX's topline, given NFLX's growing subscriber base as the recent price increase is expected toadd $500Mto NFLX's revenue in FY 21 (consensus: $29.72B). Even though it's not a significant sum as compared to the revenue base, however more importantly it demonstrated clearly that NFLX has considerable pricing power in a highly competitive SVOD segment.\n\nTop Reasons for Video Streaming Subscription Cancellations. Source:Variety\nWhen we consider that the single most important reason for subscribers to cancel their streaming subscriptions is: \"If the subscription price increased\", then investors should now be able to really understand how Mr. Market has significantly underestimated NFLX's pricing power, which is extremely important to NFLX's business model to introduce more and more high quality content as its subscriber base gets larger over time.\nIf we revisit NFLX's ARPU by region again, we could certainly see a generally healthy trend of ARPU over time even as the company increased its prices. It's important to note that increasing subscriptions prices is the primary way for it to further monetize its growing user base (although the company has also recently introduced more monetization methods such asNetflix shop, as well as thegaming market, so investors are highly encouraged to continue monitoring these developments). The price increases will help to bolster the consistency of the ARPU such that it would help with times when the company has found some difficulty in adding more users such as in Q1'21, while YoY revenue growth was still very healthy.\nInvestors should take note that NFLX's growing membership base of 208M paying members is a formidable moat for it to keep producing its slate of high quality original content.\nStrong Content Pipeline\n\nContent Assets. Data Source: Company Filings\n\nProduced Content YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nNFLX has been growing its original content base rapidly over the last few years, although the COVID-19 crisis has somewhat slowed down its growth. Thecompany emphasized:\n\n [W]e think we'll get back to a much steadier state in the back half of the year and certainly in Q4, where we've got the returning seasons of some of our most popular shows like The Witcher and You and Cobra Kai as well as some big tempo movies that came to market a little slower than we'd hoped, like Red Notes with The Rock and Ryan Reynolds and Gaga, and Escape From Spiderhead with Chris Hemsworth, big event content.\n\nTherefore, the company is not resting on its laurels and would keep on its record of producing high quality content to keep engagement at a high level with its viewers.\n\nRanking of original streaming series titles in the U.S. Data Source: Nielsen, Media Play News\nIn this survey conducted in early May, NFLX's slate of original series took home 7 out of the top 10 slots for the most watched series, demonstrating the high quality and appeal of its content with viewers. In fact, there were many other surveys that also showed Netflix's dominance in viewership over time.\nNetflix's original content didn't just dominate hours watched, but also award nominations. The company highlighted its recent achievements:\n\n Netflix led all studios for recent award nominations including the Oscars, Golden Globes, SAG Awards, BAFTA and the NAACP Image Awards, among others. Heading into the Academy Awards this weekend, we have 36 nominations across 17 films including two nominees in each of the Best Picture (Mank, The Trial of the Chicago 7), Best Documentary Feature (Crip Camp, My Octopus Teacher), and Best Animated Feature (Over the Moon, A Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon) categories. Mank led all films with 10 nominations.\n\n\nReasons for subscribing to SVOD services in the U.S. Data Source: Vorhaus Advisors\nAs we could observe from the above, high quality original series (35%) and specific TV series or movies (43%) ranked very highly on the reasons for subscribing to SVOD services, and investors can rest assured that NFLX is certainly leading in these areas.\n\nShare of SVOD subscribers, who also subscribe to other services. Data Source: Reelgood\nIn the SVOD space, we could clearly observe NFLX's importance to subscribers even if they subscribed to other services, which definitely helps to downplay the significance of increasing competitive threats to NFLX. In fact, NFLX was the most important service among these subscribers as the subscribers of the company's competitors also subscribed to NFLX: Peacock Premium (90%), HBO Max (90%), Amazon Prime (84%), Disney+ (87%), Hulu (85%) and Apple TV+ (92%), demonstrating clearly the importance and dominance of NFLX to its competitors' subscribers.\n\nNetflix Video Content Budget. Data Source: eMarketer\nMany critics also pointed to NFLX's increasing need to dedicate huge amounts of investments to drive its engagement levels, protect its moat, grow its revenue. In fact, I think unless NFLX is working on a model like Roku, whose business model I havediscussed recently here, having a high quality slate of original content is important in order to maintain its competitive edge, especially when we have witnessed a series of industry consolidation where NFLX may lose more and more access to high quality licensed content, so NFLX's committed investments in original content a few years ago led by Co-CEO Ted Sarandos has certainly been a masterstroke that has helped maintain the company's competitive edge. In addition, NFLX has been getting more and more efficient in producing original content over time, certainly helped by the large and growing paying membership base, which as I mentioned in itself is a strong moat.\n\nOther Operating Activities [LTM] as a % of Revenue [LTM]. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nNFLX's other operating activities segment mainly include the company's investments in content assets which are classified as a cash outflow in the company's Cash from Operations [CFO]. If we observed clearly, despite the company's increasing video content budget, these investments have been forming a smaller and smaller component of the company's revenue from 2018 (even if we were to exclude the skewed figures from recent quarters due to reduced original content being produced as a result of COVID-19 delays), demonstrating the company's improved CFO position that has driven results towards FCF profitability. As a result, this allowed the company to confidently declare to investors that: \"So we expect to be about cash flow breakeven this year and then sustainably free cash flow positive and growing thereafter.\" This is definitely a highly important development, as that means NFLX now has more and more cash flow flexibility to invest in content to further drive its competitive edge against its closest rivals. The company's expected FCF profitability has also given the company confidence to announce a $5B share buyback in order to return excess cash to investors.\n\nProjected Revenue Consensus Estimates, Projected Revenue Growth, Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nIn fact, when I factored in NFLX's growth assumptions into its forecast model, NFLX is expected to consistently improve its FCF margin in the years ahead, while maintaining a steady revenue growth over time. NFLX is fast becoming a FCF driver that is capable of sustaining its growth and protecting its competitive moat strongly.\nSVOD market share in Japan. Data Source: GEM Partners\nTurning to NFLX's fastest growing region: APAC (shortsighted investors seemed to ignore NFLX's dominance in this region). There's absolutely no doubt who was the clear leader in the SVOD market in Japan with NFLX holding a 19.5% market share. In fact, Japan was expected to take over Australia as APAC'slargest market by the end of 2021. Japan's revenue is expected to grow at about 37% YoY from $2.4B to $3.3B, and subscriptions from 25.5M to 33.3M, which would represent a 30.6% increase YoY.\n\nMost popular OTT in Korea. Data Source: IGAWorks\nIn its third largest APAC market: Korea, NFLX is also the well-established leader with a market share well ahead of the other OTT services, allowing the company a lot of leverage in producing top quality original Korean content. Korean content is very popular in Asia, and Netflix relies heavily on the Korean Wave (Hallyu) as the main gateway to audiences in Asia and has committed$500M to invest in Korean content in 2021 alone, from $700M spent between 2015 to 2020. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos summed up the company's approach in Korean content:\n\nOver the last two years, we've seen the world falling in love with incredible Korean content, made in Korea and watched by the world on Netflix. Our commitment towards Korea is strong. We will continue to invest and collaborate with Korean storytellers across a wealth of genres and formats.\n\n\nPopular OTT for accessing Korean Dramas Worldwide. Data Source: Korean Foundation for International Cultural Exchange; MCST Korea\nNetflix's commitment to build up its investments in Korean content has allowed it to maintain a strong position as the second ranked OTT platform behind YouTube for worldwide access to Korean dramas mainly because in my opinion, AVOD-based YouTube is free. However, Netflix has produced a lot of Original Series Korean dramas that have often quickly become a hit, and which were not available for distribution on YouTube.\nThe Elephant in the Room: Disney\n\nEstimated number of SVOD subscribers worldwide. Data Source: Digital TV Research\nDisney (DIS) perhaps represents the largest threat in terms of subscribers growth as it's expected to take over NFLX as the largest SVOD player worldwide by 2026 with 294M subscribers as compared to NFLX's 286M subscribers.\nDIS has grown its subscribers base impressively as it reached103.6M subscribers in Q2'21. DIS's Hotstar platform is the dominant platform in two of Asia's most populated countries: Indonesia and India. This is expected to continue driving strong subscribers growth that would help it to exceed NFLX's subscriber base eventually.\n\nDIS+ ARPU. Data Source: Company Filings\nHowever, DIS's ARPU is also substantially lower than NFLX as Hotstar is very much a lower-priced offering and therefore skewing DIS's ARPU to the downside even as it adds more users. However, Hotstar looks like the better equipped option for growth in these two important Asian markets for DIS and I think DISpossesses the edge over here.\n\nEstimated penetration rate. Data Source: The Motley Fool, Stifel\nHowever, NFLX is still expected to make inroads in all its segments, and particularly in APAC and EMEA as it continues to drive content growth to cater to the markets where it has the lead. l certainly think NFLX can't win in all markets, and in some markets the company definitely has to spend a lot more time and resources to develop them such as in APAC where its penetration is still very low, therefore offering huge potential for growth.\n\nOTT Revenue Worldwide. Data Source: Digital TV Research\nMost importantly, the whole market still offers a lot of opportunities for growth for well positioned players in both the AVOD and the SVOD space. In the SVOD market, it is expected to grow at about 10.16% CAGR from 2020 to 2025, which although not as fast as the AVOD market, it's still expected to grow at a highly respectable rate.\nValuations are Not Expensive\n\nRevenue CAGR and Revenue Multiples. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nNFLX's projected growth (5Y CAGR of 15.1%) is definitely expected to slow as it matures, and turn FCF profitable. I don't think it's a bad thing. NFLX is still the dominant player in SVOD and expected to be so. In addition, it's still expected to grow faster than the SVOD market growth of 10.1%, thus further reinforcing NFLX's market leadership expectation. In addition, it's also trading at a slight discount on its EV / FY+1 Rev of 7.8x as compared to its 5Y Av. EV / LTM Rev of 8.8x.\n\nCapEX Margin & Projected CapEx Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\n\n5Y Av. EV / EBITDA & EV / Fwd EBITDA. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nGiven that its CapEX margins (see above) are expected to be largely consistent over time as compared to the last few years, I also find it useful to consider its cash flow generating capacity and value it accordingly. When we consider NFLX's EV / Fwd EBITDA (see above), we could see the company's improved FCF generating capability has now made NFLX a lot more undervalued than when we compared it against its revenue growth.\n\nEV / Fwd (EBITDA - CapEx). Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nIn fact, NFLX is expected to continue generating a high level FCF moving forward which would thus further support the NFLX's competitive valuation from the FCF point of view.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\n\nSource: TradingView\nThe current price level at $489 is a possible entry point, with a more conservative entry point at $458. The \"Buy more\" entry point is at $398, which is also supported above the key 200W MA. Avoid buying near $563 and $593 in the near term as they look to be key resistance levels.\nWrapping it all up\nNetflix's \"loss of competitiveness\" and \"weak fundamentals\" that were called into question recently are largely unfounded. The company enjoys strong dominance and competitive advantages in the SVOD market that is still expected to grow at double digit growth rates of which NFLX is expected to exploit in the years ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}