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2021-09-10
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"It's all a bubble", will the stock market crash due to the Fed's rate hike?
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Legendary investor,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Co-founder Howard Marks said recently that it is time for the Fed to consider rate hike, or it will be too late to regret... The Fed's job is not to make money for investors, and when the economy is strong, the Fed must stop emergency measures and let interest rates rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71045a59cc5366e44558149a3fe54b04\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 1: Ten-year U.S. bond yield trend (2020.8.24-today) Source: wind, 36kr charting</p><p>In fact, since the beginning of this year, what the capital market is most worried about is the global liquidity tightening. Under this expectation, coupled with the impact of inflation, the ten-year U.S. bond yield once rose above 1.7% in March, and technology stocks, which relied more on the low interest rate environment, also suffered a round of decline.</p><p>Why is rate hike causing panic? Where will the stock market go after rate hike, especially the technology stocks that rely more on the low interest rate environment?</p><p><b>01Why is the Fed's rate hike so important?</b></p><p>The policy framework of the Federal Reserve is a typical dual-goal system, that is, the formulation of monetary policy revolves around the two core goals of employment and inflation.</p><p>It can be seen that during the economic recession, the Federal Reserve generally adopts a loose monetary policy to curb the recession; During the period of economic expansion, the Federal Reserve generally adopts forward-looking rate hike operations and moderately tightens monetary policy to prevent the economy from overheating.</p><p>After the United States adopts unconventional monetary policies such as the quantitative easing (QE), it will gradually withdraw from easing although it will adopt taper normal (reducing the scale of bond purchases and reducing the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve).</p><p>However, in the long run, in the process of gradually recovering the economy, it is still necessary to bring market liquidity and inflation levels back to normal ranges through rate hike, so as to maintain sustainable economic growth and prevent systemic risks.</p><p><b>An intuitive result of the Federal Reserve's rate hike is that the financing cost of American enterprises will increase, so growth and technology-based enterprises that are highly dependent on financing will be under greater pressure.</b></p><p>After all, it is precisely because it obviously benefited from the low interest rate environment that the Nasdaq closed up 43% in 2020, the largest annual increase since 2009.</p><p>The minutes of the July Federal Reserve meeting released recently showed that the tapering of bond purchases and subsequent plans were clearly discussed for the first time at the interest rate meeting. Among them, most Fed officials believe that if the economic recovery meets expectations, it will slow down the pace of monthly purchases of $120 billion in bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) later this year.</p><p><b>Differences remain within the Fed on when to start tapering</b>, some officials believe that bond purchases should be reduced and ended soon, while others believe that the Fed should wait patiently for the job market to recover more fully. It is worth noting that the minutes of the meeting also emphasized that tapering's decision has nothing to do with rate hike's timing.</p><p><b>02Howard Marks: \"It's all a bubble\"</b></p><p>Howard pointed out that all asset classes are currently in a bubble. Although most asset prices are not very irrational considering the current interest rate level, it is this interest rate level that he is worried about.</p><p>In his view, \"After the global financial crisis in 2008, the Fed's road to rate hike has been difficult, and it seems that every rate hike will offend public anger. At the beginning of 2019, interest rates began to turn downward again, and I think they missed the opportunity at that time. But this time, with such a strong economic recovery, I don't want to see them hesitate again.\"</p><p>He explained why the Fed should rate hike from the current dislocation between the market cycle and the economic cycle:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f84fab840fd7eba49113a5d8c2db065\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 2: The changing trend of market cycle superimposed on investor psychological cycle Source: Bloomberg, compiled by 36kr</p><p>Marks believes that, generally speaking, although there is a delay, the trend of the economic cycle and the market cycle is likely to remain consistent. The high point of the stock market generally corresponds to the high point of the economy. When the economy begins to decline, the market will also decline, and the economic cycle will respond after the market cycle reaches an inflection point.</p><p>The problem now is that the stock price is undoubtedly at a high point, but the economic cycle is in its early stage, which is very unusual.</p><p>There are two interpretations of this situation. The first interpretation is more pessimistic. The economy has just begun to recover, and the stock price is already so high that it may not rise in the future; Another interpretation is that although the stock price is very high now, there is still room for the economy to go up, and the stock price can be higher in the future.</p><p>Without revealing which interpretation he preferred, Marks explained why rate hike should be made as soon as possible in other ways:</p><p>1. Due to the \"water release\" of the Federal Reserve and the Ministry of Finance, the economic outlook has turned positive since last summer. The real GDP growth rate reached 6.4% in the first quarter of this year, and it is expected to maintain rapid growth until 2022. However, the Federal Reserve still keeps interest rates close to zero and buys $120 billion in bonds every month.<b>Why risk inflation and stimulate an economy that is doing so well?</b></p><p>2. In the past 16 months, while the Federal Reserve has stimulated the economy, those who hold equity assets, as well as businesses and real estate under their names have obviously benefited. They should also see the sharp differentiation of wealth distribution caused by economic stimulus.</p><p>3. If the Fed maintains the current level of easing policy, the future economic slowdown will require more stimulus, and the tools available to the Fed will be very limited.</p><p><b>All in all, Marks believes that although it is difficult for the Fed itself to predict inflation trends, monetary policy is not a \"perpetual motion machine.\" It is unlikely that the economy will be permanently driven higher by monetary and fiscal policy, and there is no negative impact yet.</b></p><p><b>03 Looking back at history, rate hike is actually not that terrible</b></p><p>As mentioned above, whenever there is a change in rate hike signals, such as the rise in the ten-year U.S. bond yield, the anchor of asset pricing, technological growth will always usher in a wave of selling.</p><p>However, Essence Securities believes that rate hike is not that terrible through review's Fed rate hike cycle since 2015.</p><p>The main impact on the U.S. stock market occurred in the early and late stages of the rate hike.<b>The extent of the adjustment mainly depends on economic expectations.</b></p><p>In the 2015-2018 rate hike cycle, the technology growth sector driven by profits still performed strongly, and was not affected by macro and monetary policies as a whole.</p><p>At that time, driven by technological innovations such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence, the Nasnak Index, which is dominated by technological growth, rose by 75.3%, far exceeding the gains of the S&P 500 and the Dow.</p><p>In 2017, the Nasdaq Internet Index rose by 165.2% and the Nasdaq Computer Index rose by 109.7%, benefiting from the profit growth brought about by technological innovation.</p><p>Of course, the market in the early stage of rate hike is vulnerable to emotional disturbances, and the expectation of liquidity tightening and economic recession in the late stage of rate hike will also have a greater impact on the stock market.</p><p>For example, in 2018Q4, due to the rate hike, the term spread between the 5-year US Treasury yields and the 2-year US Treasury yields was the first to be inverted, and recession expectations were superimposed on the decline in profits of leading technology companies, which eventually triggered a sharp drop in U.S. stocks. During the correction phase, the decline is usually Nasdaq > S&P 500 > Dow.</p><p>Therefore, as long as the related industries themselves can maintain rapid growth, the future technology growth sector can still get out of the independent market.</p>","source":"36k","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"It's all a bubble\", will the stock market crash due to the Fed's rate hike?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"It's all a bubble\", will the stock market crash due to the Fed's rate hike?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-10 10:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Fed's road to rate hike has been difficult, and it seems that it will offend public outrage every time. Legendary investor,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Co-founder Howard Marks said recently that it is time for the Fed to consider rate hike, or it will be too late to regret... The Fed's job is not to make money for investors, and when the economy is strong, the Fed must stop emergency measures and let interest rates rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71045a59cc5366e44558149a3fe54b04\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 1: Ten-year U.S. bond yield trend (2020.8.24-today) Source: wind, 36kr charting</p><p>In fact, since the beginning of this year, what the capital market is most worried about is the global liquidity tightening. Under this expectation, coupled with the impact of inflation, the ten-year U.S. bond yield once rose above 1.7% in March, and technology stocks, which relied more on the low interest rate environment, also suffered a round of decline.</p><p>Why is rate hike causing panic? Where will the stock market go after rate hike, especially the technology stocks that rely more on the low interest rate environment?</p><p><b>01Why is the Fed's rate hike so important?</b></p><p>The policy framework of the Federal Reserve is a typical dual-goal system, that is, the formulation of monetary policy revolves around the two core goals of employment and inflation.</p><p>It can be seen that during the economic recession, the Federal Reserve generally adopts a loose monetary policy to curb the recession; During the period of economic expansion, the Federal Reserve generally adopts forward-looking rate hike operations and moderately tightens monetary policy to prevent the economy from overheating.</p><p>After the United States adopts unconventional monetary policies such as the quantitative easing (QE), it will gradually withdraw from easing although it will adopt taper normal (reducing the scale of bond purchases and reducing the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve).</p><p>However, in the long run, in the process of gradually recovering the economy, it is still necessary to bring market liquidity and inflation levels back to normal ranges through rate hike, so as to maintain sustainable economic growth and prevent systemic risks.</p><p><b>An intuitive result of the Federal Reserve's rate hike is that the financing cost of American enterprises will increase, so growth and technology-based enterprises that are highly dependent on financing will be under greater pressure.</b></p><p>After all, it is precisely because it obviously benefited from the low interest rate environment that the Nasdaq closed up 43% in 2020, the largest annual increase since 2009.</p><p>The minutes of the July Federal Reserve meeting released recently showed that the tapering of bond purchases and subsequent plans were clearly discussed for the first time at the interest rate meeting. Among them, most Fed officials believe that if the economic recovery meets expectations, it will slow down the pace of monthly purchases of $120 billion in bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) later this year.</p><p><b>Differences remain within the Fed on when to start tapering</b>, some officials believe that bond purchases should be reduced and ended soon, while others believe that the Fed should wait patiently for the job market to recover more fully. It is worth noting that the minutes of the meeting also emphasized that tapering's decision has nothing to do with rate hike's timing.</p><p><b>02Howard Marks: \"It's all a bubble\"</b></p><p>Howard pointed out that all asset classes are currently in a bubble. Although most asset prices are not very irrational considering the current interest rate level, it is this interest rate level that he is worried about.</p><p>In his view, \"After the global financial crisis in 2008, the Fed's road to rate hike has been difficult, and it seems that every rate hike will offend public anger. At the beginning of 2019, interest rates began to turn downward again, and I think they missed the opportunity at that time. But this time, with such a strong economic recovery, I don't want to see them hesitate again.\"</p><p>He explained why the Fed should rate hike from the current dislocation between the market cycle and the economic cycle:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f84fab840fd7eba49113a5d8c2db065\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 2: The changing trend of market cycle superimposed on investor psychological cycle Source: Bloomberg, compiled by 36kr</p><p>Marks believes that, generally speaking, although there is a delay, the trend of the economic cycle and the market cycle is likely to remain consistent. The high point of the stock market generally corresponds to the high point of the economy. When the economy begins to decline, the market will also decline, and the economic cycle will respond after the market cycle reaches an inflection point.</p><p>The problem now is that the stock price is undoubtedly at a high point, but the economic cycle is in its early stage, which is very unusual.</p><p>There are two interpretations of this situation. The first interpretation is more pessimistic. The economy has just begun to recover, and the stock price is already so high that it may not rise in the future; Another interpretation is that although the stock price is very high now, there is still room for the economy to go up, and the stock price can be higher in the future.</p><p>Without revealing which interpretation he preferred, Marks explained why rate hike should be made as soon as possible in other ways:</p><p>1. Due to the \"water release\" of the Federal Reserve and the Ministry of Finance, the economic outlook has turned positive since last summer. The real GDP growth rate reached 6.4% in the first quarter of this year, and it is expected to maintain rapid growth until 2022. However, the Federal Reserve still keeps interest rates close to zero and buys $120 billion in bonds every month.<b>Why risk inflation and stimulate an economy that is doing so well?</b></p><p>2. In the past 16 months, while the Federal Reserve has stimulated the economy, those who hold equity assets, as well as businesses and real estate under their names have obviously benefited. They should also see the sharp differentiation of wealth distribution caused by economic stimulus.</p><p>3. If the Fed maintains the current level of easing policy, the future economic slowdown will require more stimulus, and the tools available to the Fed will be very limited.</p><p><b>All in all, Marks believes that although it is difficult for the Fed itself to predict inflation trends, monetary policy is not a \"perpetual motion machine.\" It is unlikely that the economy will be permanently driven higher by monetary and fiscal policy, and there is no negative impact yet.</b></p><p><b>03 Looking back at history, rate hike is actually not that terrible</b></p><p>As mentioned above, whenever there is a change in rate hike signals, such as the rise in the ten-year U.S. bond yield, the anchor of asset pricing, technological growth will always usher in a wave of selling.</p><p>However, Essence Securities believes that rate hike is not that terrible through review's Fed rate hike cycle since 2015.</p><p>The main impact on the U.S. stock market occurred in the early and late stages of the rate hike.<b>The extent of the adjustment mainly depends on economic expectations.</b></p><p>In the 2015-2018 rate hike cycle, the technology growth sector driven by profits still performed strongly, and was not affected by macro and monetary policies as a whole.</p><p>At that time, driven by technological innovations such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence, the Nasnak Index, which is dominated by technological growth, rose by 75.3%, far exceeding the gains of the S&P 500 and the Dow.</p><p>In 2017, the Nasdaq Internet Index rose by 165.2% and the Nasdaq Computer Index rose by 109.7%, benefiting from the profit growth brought about by technological innovation.</p><p>Of course, the market in the early stage of rate hike is vulnerable to emotional disturbances, and the expectation of liquidity tightening and economic recession in the late stage of rate hike will also have a greater impact on the stock market.</p><p>For example, in 2018Q4, due to the rate hike, the term spread between the 5-year US Treasury yields and the 2-year US Treasury yields was the first to be inverted, and recession expectations were superimposed on the decline in profits of leading technology companies, which eventually triggered a sharp drop in U.S. stocks. During the correction phase, the decline is usually Nasdaq > S&P 500 > Dow.</p><p>Therefore, as long as the related industries themselves can maintain rapid growth, the future technology growth sector can still get out of the independent market.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1390822542621443\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1390822542621443","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130229315","content_text":"美联储的加息之路一直走得艰难，似乎每一次都会触犯众怒。\n\n传奇投资人、橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯近日表示，现在是美联储考虑加息的时候了，否则将悔之晚矣...美联储的工作不是为投资者赚钱，当经济强劲时，美联储必须停止紧急措施，让利率回升。\n\n图1：十年期美债收益率走势（2020.8.24-今）来源：wind，36kr制图\n事实上，今年以来，资本市场最担忧的正是全球流动性收紧。在此预期下，再叠加通胀的影响，3月间十年美债收益率一度升破1.7%，更依赖低利率环境的科技股也遭遇了一轮杀跌。\n加息为何会引起恐慌？加息之后的股市，特别是更依赖低利率环境的科技股将何去可从？\n01 美联储加息为何如此重要？\n美联储的政策框架是典型的双目标制，即货币政策的制定围绕就业与通胀这两大核心目标。\n由此可以看到，在经济衰退期，美联储一般采取宽松的货币政策，抑制衰退；而在经济扩张期，美联储则一般采取前瞻性的加息操作，适度收紧货币政策，防止经济过热。\n美国在采取非常规货币政策如量化宽松（QE）后，虽然会采取 taper 正常（缩减购债规模和缩小美联储资产负债表）逐渐退出宽松。\n但从长期看，逐渐恢复经济的过程中，仍需要通过加息，使得市场流动性和通胀水平回到正常区间，以维持经济可持续增长，并防止系统性风险的发生。\n而美联储加息的一个直观结果是美国企业融资成本将增加，那么高度依赖融资的成长型、科技型企业将承受更大压力。\n毕竟，正是因为明显受益于低利率环境，纳指在2020年收涨43%，创2009年以来最大年度涨幅。\n近日公布的7月美联储会议纪要显示，议息会议上首次明确讨论了缩减购债和之后的计划。其中，多数联储官员认为，若经济复苏符合预期，今年晚些时候将放慢每月购买1200亿美元公债和抵押支持证券(MBS)的步伐。\n美联储内部对于何时开启缩减购债规模依然存在分歧，部分官员认为应该很快减少并结束购债，有的则认为美联储应该耐心等待就业市场更充分地恢复。值得关注的是，会议纪要还特别强调缩债决定与加息时机无关。\n02 霍华德·马克斯：“全都是泡沫”\n霍华德指出，目前所有的资产类别都处在泡沫之中，虽然考虑到目前的利率水平，大多数资产价格并没有非常不理性，但是他所担忧的正是这样的利率水平。\n在他看来，“2008年全球金融危机之后，美联储的加息之路一直走得艰难，似乎每一次加息都会触犯众怒。 而在2019年初，利率又开始转而下行，我认为他们当时错失了机会。但这一次，在经济如此强劲复苏的情况下，我不想再看到他们犹豫不前。”\n他从当下所处的市场周期和经济周期的错位来解释为何美联储应当加息:\n\n图2：市场周期叠加投资者心理周期的变化趋势 来源：彭博，36kr整理\n马克斯认为，通常来说，虽有延迟，但经济周期和市场周期的趋势大概率保持一致。 股市的高点一般对应着经济的高点。当经济开始下行的时候，市场也会随之下跌，市场周期出现拐点后经济周期会随之响应。\n而现在的问题是，股价毫无疑问在高点，但是经济周期却处于初期，这就很不寻常。\n对于这种情况有两种解读，第一解读比较悲观，经济才刚开始复苏，股价已经这么高了，未来可能就涨不动了；另一种解读是，虽然现在股价很高，但经济还有上行空间，未来股价还能更高。\n马克斯并未透露自己倾向于那一种解读，他从其他方面解释了为何应当尽快加息：\n1、由于美联储、财政部的“放水”，经济展望自去年夏天开始转向积极。今年一季度实际GDP增长率达到6.4%，且预期直到2022年仍能保持高速增长。然而，美联储依然把利率控制在接近于0，每月购买1200亿美元的债券。为什么冒着通货膨胀的风险，刺激一个表现如此之好的经济？\n2、过去16个月里，在美联储刺激经济体的同时，那些持有权益资产、以及名下有企业和房产的人明显得到了好处，还应看到经济刺激造成的财富分配急剧分化。\n3、如果美联储维持当前水平的宽松政策，未来的经济减速需要更多的刺激，美联储可运用的工具将会很有限。\n总而言之，马克斯认为虽然美联储自身都难以预测通胀走势，但是货币政策不是“永动机”。经济不太可能会被货币和财政政策永久地催高，并且还没有负面影响。\n03 回顾历史，加息其实没那么可怕\n如前文所述，每逢加息信号有所异动，例如资产定价之锚十年美债收益率上行，科技成长总会迎来一波抛售潮。\n但安信证券通过复盘近2015年以来的美联储加息周期，认为加息并没有那么可怕。\n对于美国股市影响的主要时点出现在加息初期和末期，调整的幅度主要还是取决于经济预期。\n在2015-2018年加息周期中受盈利推动科技成长板块仍表现强势，整体受宏观和货币政策影响不大。\n彼时，在云计算、人工智能等技术革新的推动下，科技成长为主的纳斯纳克指数累计上行了75.3%，远超过标普500和道指的涨幅。\n细分行业板块来中，受益于技术革新带来的盈利增长，2017 年纳斯达克互联网指数上涨了165.2%、纳斯达克计算机指数上涨了109.7%。\n当然，加息初期市场容易受到情绪扰动，加息末期流动性收紧叠加经济衰退预期也会对股市造成较大冲击。\n例如，2018Q4时，由于加息导致5年美债利率和2年美债利率的期限利差率先出现倒挂，衰退预期叠加科技龙头公司盈利下滑，最终引发美股大跌。在调整阶段，跌幅通常是纳指>标普500>道指。\n因此，只要相关行业自身能够保持快速增长，未来科技成长板块仍可以走出独立行情。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":883548992,"gmtCreate":1631259396816,"gmtModify":1676530511308,"author":{"id":"3578412715743468","authorId":"3578412715743468","name":"邪流","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/812a648a7339f09cd4b245a4e282067e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578412715743468","authorIdStr":"3578412715743468"},"themes":[],"htmlText":" 8","listText":" 8","text":"8","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883548992","repostId":"1130229315","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130229315","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631241839,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130229315?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-10 10:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"It's all a bubble\", will the stock market crash due to the Fed's rate hike?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130229315","media":"36氪","summary":"美联储的加息之路一直走得艰难，似乎每一次都会触犯众怒。\n\n传奇投资人、橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯近日表示，现在是美联储考虑加息的时候了，否则将悔之晚矣...美联储的工作不是为投资者赚钱，当经济强","content":"<p>The Fed's road to rate hike has been difficult, and it seems that it will offend public outrage every time. Legendary investor,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Co-founder Howard Marks said recently that it is time for the Fed to consider rate hike, or it will be too late to regret... The Fed's job is not to make money for investors, and when the economy is strong, the Fed must stop emergency measures and let interest rates rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71045a59cc5366e44558149a3fe54b04\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 1: Ten-year U.S. bond yield trend (2020.8.24-today) Source: wind, 36kr charting</p><p>In fact, since the beginning of this year, what the capital market is most worried about is the global liquidity tightening. Under this expectation, coupled with the impact of inflation, the ten-year U.S. bond yield once rose above 1.7% in March, and technology stocks, which relied more on the low interest rate environment, also suffered a round of decline.</p><p>Why is rate hike causing panic? Where will the stock market go after rate hike, especially the technology stocks that rely more on the low interest rate environment?</p><p><b>01Why is the Fed's rate hike so important?</b></p><p>The policy framework of the Federal Reserve is a typical dual-goal system, that is, the formulation of monetary policy revolves around the two core goals of employment and inflation.</p><p>It can be seen that during the economic recession, the Federal Reserve generally adopts a loose monetary policy to curb the recession; During the period of economic expansion, the Federal Reserve generally adopts forward-looking rate hike operations and moderately tightens monetary policy to prevent the economy from overheating.</p><p>After the United States adopts unconventional monetary policies such as the quantitative easing (QE), it will gradually withdraw from easing although it will adopt taper normal (reducing the scale of bond purchases and reducing the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve).</p><p>However, in the long run, in the process of gradually recovering the economy, it is still necessary to bring market liquidity and inflation levels back to normal ranges through rate hike, so as to maintain sustainable economic growth and prevent systemic risks.</p><p><b>An intuitive result of the Federal Reserve's rate hike is that the financing cost of American enterprises will increase, so growth and technology-based enterprises that are highly dependent on financing will be under greater pressure.</b></p><p>After all, it is precisely because it obviously benefited from the low interest rate environment that the Nasdaq closed up 43% in 2020, the largest annual increase since 2009.</p><p>The minutes of the July Federal Reserve meeting released recently showed that the tapering of bond purchases and subsequent plans were clearly discussed for the first time at the interest rate meeting. Among them, most Fed officials believe that if the economic recovery meets expectations, it will slow down the pace of monthly purchases of $120 billion in bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) later this year.</p><p><b>Differences remain within the Fed on when to start tapering</b>, some officials believe that bond purchases should be reduced and ended soon, while others believe that the Fed should wait patiently for the job market to recover more fully. It is worth noting that the minutes of the meeting also emphasized that tapering's decision has nothing to do with rate hike's timing.</p><p><b>02Howard Marks: \"It's all a bubble\"</b></p><p>Howard pointed out that all asset classes are currently in a bubble. Although most asset prices are not very irrational considering the current interest rate level, it is this interest rate level that he is worried about.</p><p>In his view, \"After the global financial crisis in 2008, the Fed's road to rate hike has been difficult, and it seems that every rate hike will offend public anger. At the beginning of 2019, interest rates began to turn downward again, and I think they missed the opportunity at that time. But this time, with such a strong economic recovery, I don't want to see them hesitate again.\"</p><p>He explained why the Fed should rate hike from the current dislocation between the market cycle and the economic cycle:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f84fab840fd7eba49113a5d8c2db065\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 2: The changing trend of market cycle superimposed on investor psychological cycle Source: Bloomberg, compiled by 36kr</p><p>Marks believes that, generally speaking, although there is a delay, the trend of the economic cycle and the market cycle is likely to remain consistent. The high point of the stock market generally corresponds to the high point of the economy. When the economy begins to decline, the market will also decline, and the economic cycle will respond after the market cycle reaches an inflection point.</p><p>The problem now is that the stock price is undoubtedly at a high point, but the economic cycle is in its early stage, which is very unusual.</p><p>There are two interpretations of this situation. The first interpretation is more pessimistic. The economy has just begun to recover, and the stock price is already so high that it may not rise in the future; Another interpretation is that although the stock price is very high now, there is still room for the economy to go up, and the stock price can be higher in the future.</p><p>Without revealing which interpretation he preferred, Marks explained why rate hike should be made as soon as possible in other ways:</p><p>1. Due to the \"water release\" of the Federal Reserve and the Ministry of Finance, the economic outlook has turned positive since last summer. The real GDP growth rate reached 6.4% in the first quarter of this year, and it is expected to maintain rapid growth until 2022. However, the Federal Reserve still keeps interest rates close to zero and buys $120 billion in bonds every month.<b>Why risk inflation and stimulate an economy that is doing so well?</b></p><p>2. In the past 16 months, while the Federal Reserve has stimulated the economy, those who hold equity assets, as well as businesses and real estate under their names have obviously benefited. They should also see the sharp differentiation of wealth distribution caused by economic stimulus.</p><p>3. If the Fed maintains the current level of easing policy, the future economic slowdown will require more stimulus, and the tools available to the Fed will be very limited.</p><p><b>All in all, Marks believes that although it is difficult for the Fed itself to predict inflation trends, monetary policy is not a \"perpetual motion machine.\" It is unlikely that the economy will be permanently driven higher by monetary and fiscal policy, and there is no negative impact yet.</b></p><p><b>03 Looking back at history, rate hike is actually not that terrible</b></p><p>As mentioned above, whenever there is a change in rate hike signals, such as the rise in the ten-year U.S. bond yield, the anchor of asset pricing, technological growth will always usher in a wave of selling.</p><p>However, Essence Securities believes that rate hike is not that terrible through review's Fed rate hike cycle since 2015.</p><p>The main impact on the U.S. stock market occurred in the early and late stages of the rate hike.<b>The extent of the adjustment mainly depends on economic expectations.</b></p><p>In the 2015-2018 rate hike cycle, the technology growth sector driven by profits still performed strongly, and was not affected by macro and monetary policies as a whole.</p><p>At that time, driven by technological innovations such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence, the Nasnak Index, which is dominated by technological growth, rose by 75.3%, far exceeding the gains of the S&P 500 and the Dow.</p><p>In 2017, the Nasdaq Internet Index rose by 165.2% and the Nasdaq Computer Index rose by 109.7%, benefiting from the profit growth brought about by technological innovation.</p><p>Of course, the market in the early stage of rate hike is vulnerable to emotional disturbances, and the expectation of liquidity tightening and economic recession in the late stage of rate hike will also have a greater impact on the stock market.</p><p>For example, in 2018Q4, due to the rate hike, the term spread between the 5-year US Treasury yields and the 2-year US Treasury yields was the first to be inverted, and recession expectations were superimposed on the decline in profits of leading technology companies, which eventually triggered a sharp drop in U.S. stocks. During the correction phase, the decline is usually Nasdaq > S&P 500 > Dow.</p><p>Therefore, as long as the related industries themselves can maintain rapid growth, the future technology growth sector can still get out of the independent market.</p>","source":"36k","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"It's all a bubble\", will the stock market crash due to the Fed's rate hike?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"It's all a bubble\", will the stock market crash due to the Fed's rate hike?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-10 10:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Fed's road to rate hike has been difficult, and it seems that it will offend public outrage every time. Legendary investor,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Co-founder Howard Marks said recently that it is time for the Fed to consider rate hike, or it will be too late to regret... The Fed's job is not to make money for investors, and when the economy is strong, the Fed must stop emergency measures and let interest rates rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71045a59cc5366e44558149a3fe54b04\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 1: Ten-year U.S. bond yield trend (2020.8.24-today) Source: wind, 36kr charting</p><p>In fact, since the beginning of this year, what the capital market is most worried about is the global liquidity tightening. Under this expectation, coupled with the impact of inflation, the ten-year U.S. bond yield once rose above 1.7% in March, and technology stocks, which relied more on the low interest rate environment, also suffered a round of decline.</p><p>Why is rate hike causing panic? Where will the stock market go after rate hike, especially the technology stocks that rely more on the low interest rate environment?</p><p><b>01Why is the Fed's rate hike so important?</b></p><p>The policy framework of the Federal Reserve is a typical dual-goal system, that is, the formulation of monetary policy revolves around the two core goals of employment and inflation.</p><p>It can be seen that during the economic recession, the Federal Reserve generally adopts a loose monetary policy to curb the recession; During the period of economic expansion, the Federal Reserve generally adopts forward-looking rate hike operations and moderately tightens monetary policy to prevent the economy from overheating.</p><p>After the United States adopts unconventional monetary policies such as the quantitative easing (QE), it will gradually withdraw from easing although it will adopt taper normal (reducing the scale of bond purchases and reducing the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve).</p><p>However, in the long run, in the process of gradually recovering the economy, it is still necessary to bring market liquidity and inflation levels back to normal ranges through rate hike, so as to maintain sustainable economic growth and prevent systemic risks.</p><p><b>An intuitive result of the Federal Reserve's rate hike is that the financing cost of American enterprises will increase, so growth and technology-based enterprises that are highly dependent on financing will be under greater pressure.</b></p><p>After all, it is precisely because it obviously benefited from the low interest rate environment that the Nasdaq closed up 43% in 2020, the largest annual increase since 2009.</p><p>The minutes of the July Federal Reserve meeting released recently showed that the tapering of bond purchases and subsequent plans were clearly discussed for the first time at the interest rate meeting. Among them, most Fed officials believe that if the economic recovery meets expectations, it will slow down the pace of monthly purchases of $120 billion in bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) later this year.</p><p><b>Differences remain within the Fed on when to start tapering</b>, some officials believe that bond purchases should be reduced and ended soon, while others believe that the Fed should wait patiently for the job market to recover more fully. It is worth noting that the minutes of the meeting also emphasized that tapering's decision has nothing to do with rate hike's timing.</p><p><b>02Howard Marks: \"It's all a bubble\"</b></p><p>Howard pointed out that all asset classes are currently in a bubble. Although most asset prices are not very irrational considering the current interest rate level, it is this interest rate level that he is worried about.</p><p>In his view, \"After the global financial crisis in 2008, the Fed's road to rate hike has been difficult, and it seems that every rate hike will offend public anger. At the beginning of 2019, interest rates began to turn downward again, and I think they missed the opportunity at that time. But this time, with such a strong economic recovery, I don't want to see them hesitate again.\"</p><p>He explained why the Fed should rate hike from the current dislocation between the market cycle and the economic cycle:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f84fab840fd7eba49113a5d8c2db065\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 2: The changing trend of market cycle superimposed on investor psychological cycle Source: Bloomberg, compiled by 36kr</p><p>Marks believes that, generally speaking, although there is a delay, the trend of the economic cycle and the market cycle is likely to remain consistent. The high point of the stock market generally corresponds to the high point of the economy. When the economy begins to decline, the market will also decline, and the economic cycle will respond after the market cycle reaches an inflection point.</p><p>The problem now is that the stock price is undoubtedly at a high point, but the economic cycle is in its early stage, which is very unusual.</p><p>There are two interpretations of this situation. The first interpretation is more pessimistic. The economy has just begun to recover, and the stock price is already so high that it may not rise in the future; Another interpretation is that although the stock price is very high now, there is still room for the economy to go up, and the stock price can be higher in the future.</p><p>Without revealing which interpretation he preferred, Marks explained why rate hike should be made as soon as possible in other ways:</p><p>1. Due to the \"water release\" of the Federal Reserve and the Ministry of Finance, the economic outlook has turned positive since last summer. The real GDP growth rate reached 6.4% in the first quarter of this year, and it is expected to maintain rapid growth until 2022. However, the Federal Reserve still keeps interest rates close to zero and buys $120 billion in bonds every month.<b>Why risk inflation and stimulate an economy that is doing so well?</b></p><p>2. In the past 16 months, while the Federal Reserve has stimulated the economy, those who hold equity assets, as well as businesses and real estate under their names have obviously benefited. They should also see the sharp differentiation of wealth distribution caused by economic stimulus.</p><p>3. If the Fed maintains the current level of easing policy, the future economic slowdown will require more stimulus, and the tools available to the Fed will be very limited.</p><p><b>All in all, Marks believes that although it is difficult for the Fed itself to predict inflation trends, monetary policy is not a \"perpetual motion machine.\" It is unlikely that the economy will be permanently driven higher by monetary and fiscal policy, and there is no negative impact yet.</b></p><p><b>03 Looking back at history, rate hike is actually not that terrible</b></p><p>As mentioned above, whenever there is a change in rate hike signals, such as the rise in the ten-year U.S. bond yield, the anchor of asset pricing, technological growth will always usher in a wave of selling.</p><p>However, Essence Securities believes that rate hike is not that terrible through review's Fed rate hike cycle since 2015.</p><p>The main impact on the U.S. stock market occurred in the early and late stages of the rate hike.<b>The extent of the adjustment mainly depends on economic expectations.</b></p><p>In the 2015-2018 rate hike cycle, the technology growth sector driven by profits still performed strongly, and was not affected by macro and monetary policies as a whole.</p><p>At that time, driven by technological innovations such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence, the Nasnak Index, which is dominated by technological growth, rose by 75.3%, far exceeding the gains of the S&P 500 and the Dow.</p><p>In 2017, the Nasdaq Internet Index rose by 165.2% and the Nasdaq Computer Index rose by 109.7%, benefiting from the profit growth brought about by technological innovation.</p><p>Of course, the market in the early stage of rate hike is vulnerable to emotional disturbances, and the expectation of liquidity tightening and economic recession in the late stage of rate hike will also have a greater impact on the stock market.</p><p>For example, in 2018Q4, due to the rate hike, the term spread between the 5-year US Treasury yields and the 2-year US Treasury yields was the first to be inverted, and recession expectations were superimposed on the decline in profits of leading technology companies, which eventually triggered a sharp drop in U.S. stocks. During the correction phase, the decline is usually Nasdaq > S&P 500 > Dow.</p><p>Therefore, as long as the related industries themselves can maintain rapid growth, the future technology growth sector can still get out of the independent market.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1390822542621443\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1390822542621443","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130229315","content_text":"美联储的加息之路一直走得艰难，似乎每一次都会触犯众怒。\n\n传奇投资人、橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯近日表示，现在是美联储考虑加息的时候了，否则将悔之晚矣...美联储的工作不是为投资者赚钱，当经济强劲时，美联储必须停止紧急措施，让利率回升。\n\n图1：十年期美债收益率走势（2020.8.24-今）来源：wind，36kr制图\n事实上，今年以来，资本市场最担忧的正是全球流动性收紧。在此预期下，再叠加通胀的影响，3月间十年美债收益率一度升破1.7%，更依赖低利率环境的科技股也遭遇了一轮杀跌。\n加息为何会引起恐慌？加息之后的股市，特别是更依赖低利率环境的科技股将何去可从？\n01 美联储加息为何如此重要？\n美联储的政策框架是典型的双目标制，即货币政策的制定围绕就业与通胀这两大核心目标。\n由此可以看到，在经济衰退期，美联储一般采取宽松的货币政策，抑制衰退；而在经济扩张期，美联储则一般采取前瞻性的加息操作，适度收紧货币政策，防止经济过热。\n美国在采取非常规货币政策如量化宽松（QE）后，虽然会采取 taper 正常（缩减购债规模和缩小美联储资产负债表）逐渐退出宽松。\n但从长期看，逐渐恢复经济的过程中，仍需要通过加息，使得市场流动性和通胀水平回到正常区间，以维持经济可持续增长，并防止系统性风险的发生。\n而美联储加息的一个直观结果是美国企业融资成本将增加，那么高度依赖融资的成长型、科技型企业将承受更大压力。\n毕竟，正是因为明显受益于低利率环境，纳指在2020年收涨43%，创2009年以来最大年度涨幅。\n近日公布的7月美联储会议纪要显示，议息会议上首次明确讨论了缩减购债和之后的计划。其中，多数联储官员认为，若经济复苏符合预期，今年晚些时候将放慢每月购买1200亿美元公债和抵押支持证券(MBS)的步伐。\n美联储内部对于何时开启缩减购债规模依然存在分歧，部分官员认为应该很快减少并结束购债，有的则认为美联储应该耐心等待就业市场更充分地恢复。值得关注的是，会议纪要还特别强调缩债决定与加息时机无关。\n02 霍华德·马克斯：“全都是泡沫”\n霍华德指出，目前所有的资产类别都处在泡沫之中，虽然考虑到目前的利率水平，大多数资产价格并没有非常不理性，但是他所担忧的正是这样的利率水平。\n在他看来，“2008年全球金融危机之后，美联储的加息之路一直走得艰难，似乎每一次加息都会触犯众怒。 而在2019年初，利率又开始转而下行，我认为他们当时错失了机会。但这一次，在经济如此强劲复苏的情况下，我不想再看到他们犹豫不前。”\n他从当下所处的市场周期和经济周期的错位来解释为何美联储应当加息:\n\n图2：市场周期叠加投资者心理周期的变化趋势 来源：彭博，36kr整理\n马克斯认为，通常来说，虽有延迟，但经济周期和市场周期的趋势大概率保持一致。 股市的高点一般对应着经济的高点。当经济开始下行的时候，市场也会随之下跌，市场周期出现拐点后经济周期会随之响应。\n而现在的问题是，股价毫无疑问在高点，但是经济周期却处于初期，这就很不寻常。\n对于这种情况有两种解读，第一解读比较悲观，经济才刚开始复苏，股价已经这么高了，未来可能就涨不动了；另一种解读是，虽然现在股价很高，但经济还有上行空间，未来股价还能更高。\n马克斯并未透露自己倾向于那一种解读，他从其他方面解释了为何应当尽快加息：\n1、由于美联储、财政部的“放水”，经济展望自去年夏天开始转向积极。今年一季度实际GDP增长率达到6.4%，且预期直到2022年仍能保持高速增长。然而，美联储依然把利率控制在接近于0，每月购买1200亿美元的债券。为什么冒着通货膨胀的风险，刺激一个表现如此之好的经济？\n2、过去16个月里，在美联储刺激经济体的同时，那些持有权益资产、以及名下有企业和房产的人明显得到了好处，还应看到经济刺激造成的财富分配急剧分化。\n3、如果美联储维持当前水平的宽松政策，未来的经济减速需要更多的刺激，美联储可运用的工具将会很有限。\n总而言之，马克斯认为虽然美联储自身都难以预测通胀走势，但是货币政策不是“永动机”。经济不太可能会被货币和财政政策永久地催高，并且还没有负面影响。\n03 回顾历史，加息其实没那么可怕\n如前文所述，每逢加息信号有所异动，例如资产定价之锚十年美债收益率上行，科技成长总会迎来一波抛售潮。\n但安信证券通过复盘近2015年以来的美联储加息周期，认为加息并没有那么可怕。\n对于美国股市影响的主要时点出现在加息初期和末期，调整的幅度主要还是取决于经济预期。\n在2015-2018年加息周期中受盈利推动科技成长板块仍表现强势，整体受宏观和货币政策影响不大。\n彼时，在云计算、人工智能等技术革新的推动下，科技成长为主的纳斯纳克指数累计上行了75.3%，远超过标普500和道指的涨幅。\n细分行业板块来中，受益于技术革新带来的盈利增长，2017 年纳斯达克互联网指数上涨了165.2%、纳斯达克计算机指数上涨了109.7%。\n当然，加息初期市场容易受到情绪扰动，加息末期流动性收紧叠加经济衰退预期也会对股市造成较大冲击。\n例如，2018Q4时，由于加息导致5年美债利率和2年美债利率的期限利差率先出现倒挂，衰退预期叠加科技龙头公司盈利下滑，最终引发美股大跌。在调整阶段，跌幅通常是纳指>标普500>道指。\n因此，只要相关行业自身能够保持快速增长，未来科技成长板块仍可以走出独立行情。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
