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2022-06-05

Gb

@首席消费官:【“汽車下鄉”政策或6月初出臺？中汽協迴應“假消息”】日前，從多位業內人士處獲悉，“汽車下鄉”政策有望於6月初出臺，鼓勵車型爲15萬元以內的車型，每輛車補貼範圍或在3000元~5000元。對此，中汽協相關負責人向記者回應稱：“假消息”。（每日經濟新聞）

2022-06-05

gh

@AfraSimon:Disney Is Investing $32 Billion to Become a Content Powerhouse: Is This Stock Set to Soar?

2022-06-05

Gu

The culmination of prosperity? US consumption, how far can it go

2022-06-04

gh

@CapitalWatch:波動交易的時代已經結束

2022-06-04

Gh

Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng and Feng Liu captured Q2 big bull stocks! There are also tens of billions of private equity holdings plummeting

2022-06-04

Gbb

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2022-06-04

Tgv

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2022-06-04

Vh

The "flywheel" stalled, Netflix's moat is becoming its ceiling?

2022-06-04

Tf

Rate hike "lost 800 yuan to himself", and the Fed suffered a huge loss of 2.2 trillion yuan on its books!

2022-06-04

Efg

Rate hike "lost 800 yuan to himself", and the Fed suffered a huge loss of 2.2 trillion yuan on its books!

2022-06-03

Ha

Reminder: A list of major market closure arrangements during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday

2022-05-30

Gah

@品玩:罵完還在買寶可夢公司2021財年銷售額增長70.15%

2022-05-23

H

@美股在线:法國巴黎銀行加盟摩根大通Onyx數字資產網絡

2022-05-23

Hj

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2022-05-22

q

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2022-05-22

ss

Is 40 times PE expensive? Duan Yongping talks about Maotai valuation

2021-07-27

?

Dole updates prospectus: IPO pricing range is $20-23

2021-06-19

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The Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccination, and the goal of 70% adult vaccination meets the challenge

2021-06-19

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The Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccination, and the goal of 70% adult vaccination meets the challenge

2021-06-15

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Is Investing $32 Billion to Become a Content Powerhouse: Is This Stock Set to Soar?","htmlText":"The Walt Disney Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a> (DIS-1.98%)is home to some of the most popular content franchises in the world. At the pandemic's onset, the company's hands got tied behind its back as it was forced to close its theme parks, stop content production, and pause movie theater releases.As business restrictions have eased, The House of Mouse is getting back to full strength, including revving up its content engine. Indeed, management estimates it will spend $32 billion on content in 2022.A surge in content spending could lead to a subscriber boomOne-third of the $32 billion content budget will be spent on sports. The remainder is an enterprise-wide budget, meaning the content created will appear across itsvarious media properties, including Disne","listText":"The Walt Disney Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a> (DIS-1.98%)is home to some of the most popular content franchises in the world. 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At the pandemic's onset, the company's hands got tied behind its back as it was forced to close its theme parks, stop content production, and pause movie theater releases.As business restrictions have eased, The House of Mouse is getting back to full strength, including revving up its content engine. Indeed, management estimates it will spend $32 billion on content in 2022.A surge in content spending could lead to a subscriber boomOne-third of the $32 billion content budget will be spent on sports. The remainder is an enterprise-wide budget, meaning the content created will appear across itsvarious media properties, including Disne","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1bb5d75c463d82983fb67a2654ce44da","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059454188","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059722076,"gmtCreate":1654438625895,"gmtModify":1676535447538,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gu","listText":"Gu","text":"Gu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059722076","repostId":"1111513232","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111513232","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654406018,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111513232?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-05 13:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The culmination of prosperity? US consumption, how far can it go","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111513232","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"眼下，政策退潮大势所趋，就业市场景气犹在，消费“繁荣”能否延续？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Authors: Zhao Wei, Cao Jinqiu, Sinolink Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Summary:</b></p><p><b>The \"appearance\" of nominal consumption in the United States? Commodity consumption remains high, while service consumption recovery lags behind</b></p><p><b>Overall, private consumption expenditure and retail sales data in the United States in April were very strong.</b>After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, private consumption in the United States was once hit hard, and the nominal year-on-year growth rate once fell to-16.1%. As the U.S. government implements large-scale financial subsidies to residents and the impact of the epidemic on the economy tends to weaken, the compound growth rate of private consumption in the United States rose to 6% in April, far exceeding the average of 3.9% in the past 10 years. At the same time, another important consumption indicator, the compound growth rate of retail sales rose to 9.9% in April, which is also much higher than the average level of the past 10 years.</p><p><b>In terms of structure, commodity consumption remains high, and the recovery of service consumption lags behind.</b>In terms of commodities, the compound growth rate of durable goods consumption fell back to 13.3%, which is still at a high level, and the compound growth rate of non-durable goods consumption was 8.1%, which also remained at a high level. Among them, except for individual commodities such as home appliances, the consumption of most commodities is very eye-catching. Compared with commodities, the compound growth rate of service consumption is \"only\" 4.1%, and the recovery is obviously lagging behind. In terms of industries, consumption such as medical care has exceeded the pre-epidemic level, but consumption of catering, accommodation and entertainment has not yet been restored to the pre-epidemic level.</p><p><b>The \"Truth\" About Actual Consumption in America? Commodity consumption fell from its high level, while service consumption maintained a weak recovery</b></p><p><b>Historically, the nominal and actual consumption trends in the United States are basically the same, but there has been a significant differentiation recently.</b>The continued high inflation reading in the United States has obviously interfered with the stable relationship between nominal and real consumption, resulting in a clear differentiation between the two. After excluding inflation factors, the compound growth rate of actual consumption in the United States recorded 2.5% in April, slightly exceeding the average level of the 10 years before the epidemic. Retail sales. After excluding inflation factors, the actual year-on-year growth rate of U.S. retail sales in April was only 2.3%, which also slightly exceeded the average level of the 10 years before the epidemic.</p><p><b>In terms of structure, actual commodity consumption has fallen from a high level, but it is still high, and service consumption has maintained a relatively weak recovery trend.</b>Under high inflation, the compound growth rate of actual consumption of durable goods in the United States in April was 9.5%, which was still higher than the average level of 6.1% in the 10 years before the epidemic. The compound growth rate of automobiles and building materials was at historically low levels. In terms of non-durable goods, the compound growth rate was recorded at 4.1%, which was also higher than the average level of 2.1% in the 10 years before the epidemic. Compared with the decline in commodity consumption from a high level, the compound growth rate of actual service consumption in April was only 0.9%, maintaining a relatively weak recovery trend.</p><p><b>Where does U.S. consumption go from here? Service consumption \"takes the lead\", and the \"erosion effect\" of inflation needs to be vigilant</b></p><p><b>Residents' salary increase and employment recovery have exceeded expectations, and under the scenario recovery, the growth of service consumption can be expected and is expected to support overall consumption, but it should be noted that the pressure of service inflation continues to accumulate.</b>As a leading indicator of service consumption in the United States, residents' salary increases and employment recovery continue to exceed expectations and have entered a virtuous circle. Under the background of the ebb tide of the epidemic, whether the consumption of services such as leisure and entertainment can be significantly boosted in the peak travel season will also be a \"touchstone\" to test the quality of consumption. However, it should be noted that the recovery of service consumption demand may bring about a further release of inflationary pressure.</p><p><b>Under the background of stimulus ebb tide and rate hike, durable goods consumption is coming to an end or coming to an end; Consumption of non-durable goods may remain stable, but we need to be alert to the \"erosion effect\" of inflation.</b>After the epidemic, the pre-characteristics of durable goods consumption in the United States are obvious, with \"excess\" consumption exceeding US $430 billion, equivalent to nearly 30% of durable goods consumption in 2019. Under the background of stimulus ebb and rate hike, the demand for interest rate-sensitive durable goods such as automobiles may be suppressed. In terms of non-durable goods, rigid demand may support stable consumption, but we need to be alert to the intensification of the \"erosion effect\" of high inflation on non-durable goods.</p><p>Body:</p><p>1. The \"appearance\" of nominal consumption in the United States? Commodity consumption remains high, while service consumption recovery lags behind</p><p><b>Overall, U.S. private consumption spending in April and the latest April retail sales</b>①<b>The data and performance are very strong.</b>After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, as the \"ballast stone\" of the US economy, private consumption once suffered heavy losses, and the nominal year-on-year growth rate once fell to-16.1%. As the U.S. government implements large-scale financial subsidies to residents and the impact of the epidemic on the economy tends to weaken, the compound growth rate of U.S. private consumption ② has recovered to an extremely high level of 6%, far exceeding the average of 3.9% in the past 10 years. At the same time, another important consumption indicator, the compound growth rate of retail sales rose to 9.9% in April, which is also much higher than the average level of 4.3% in the past 10 years.</p><p>① Private consumption is a measure of consumer spending by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. It is a more comprehensive indicator of consumer spending than retail sales, and it is also the largest component of GDP (accounting for about 70%). Retail sales are survey data obtained by the U.S. Commerce Census Bureau through interviews with thousands of retailers, which mainly reflect changes in nominal consumption (mainly commodity consumption).</p><p>② In order to eliminate the interference of base effect, the data in 2021 and beyond are based on the data of the same period in 2019, and then the compound growth rate is calculated, the same below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5a00fdddba22296419e080671efcce\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21500bfb02edb9bb0cd689da22576615\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of commodities, the growth rate of durable goods consumption has slowed down, but remained high, and the growth rate of non-durable goods consumption has continued to recover.</b>Commodity consumption can be further split into durable goods and non-durable goods consumption. The former mainly includes automobiles, furniture, household appliances and other commodities with a service life of more than 3 years, while the latter mainly includes relatively consumable commodities such as food, clothing, and energy products. Specifically, April data showed that the compound growth rate of durable goods consumption dropped from the previous high of 20% to 13.3%, which is still at a high level; The compound growth rate of non-durable goods consumption is as high as 8.1%. Against the background of the continued expansion of commodity consumption, the proportion of durable goods and non-durable goods consumption in private consumption has increased from 11% and 20% before the epidemic to 13% and 22% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b600d905e75b26bd815dd46bf39e3f65\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0785710933970579a74fc15e388436f\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of structure, except for individual commodities such as home appliances, the consumption of most commodities is very eye-catching.</b>The sub-indicator of retail sales mainly reflects the consumption expenditure of American residents on goods. In terms of structure, the retail sales of motor vehicle and parts stores, non-store retail, daily necessities, and gas stations are relatively high, accounting for 20%, 16%, 12%, and 9% of the total retail sales respectively. Based on retail sales data, except for the low growth rate of retail sales of individual commodities such as home appliances, the compound growth rate of consumption of most commodities such as automobiles, furniture, clothing, and food remains high, basically at the historical percentile. More than 75%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9c2d64e5f153f86fed7e3721cbd225a\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17869c23d4ef58a10040a344306a412d\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1722b188ffe336c69166cab2f474075\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3232273c2b0ef73962a527c14cdb94c\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of service consumption, the consumption of medical care and other services has exceeded the pre-epidemic level, and the consumption of catering and other services has not yet been restored to the pre-epidemic level.</b>The repeated epidemic situation in the early stage obviously interfered with the recovery process of service consumption. Judging from the data in April, compared with the compound growth rate of commodity consumption of 9.9%, the compound growth rate of service consumption is \"only\" 4.1%, and the recovery is obviously lagging behind. In order to describe service consumption more comprehensively, we use credit card consumption data to capture the changes of service consumption sub-items. Credit card consumption data shows that the consumption of maintenance (family management) and outpatient health care (medical services) has exceeded the pre-epidemic level. Catering consumption, etc., because the indoor mask order was released relatively late, related consumption activities have not yet been restored to pre-epidemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce51dab39d446354be1442b3a00818a9\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5057371f89a45e8b2c24947d948ffef\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d262cf4300ba4e77efcc2ab8fe1ec45\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"656\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/824422748d70225488b30a02c3281d46\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb4d6f9ac13c71a0074592c7a8919351\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>2. The \"truth\" of actual consumption in the United States? Commodity consumption fell from its high level, while service consumption maintained a weak recovery</p><p><b>Historically, the nominal and actual consumption trends in the United States are basically the same, but there has been a significant differentiation recently.</b>The continued high inflation reading in the United States has obviously interfered with the stable relationship between nominal and real consumption, resulting in a clear differentiation between the two. After excluding inflation, the actual consumption level in the United States is not as strong as the nominal statistics. The actual compound growth rate in April recorded 2.5%, slightly higher than the average level of 2.2% in the 10 years before the epidemic. After excluding inflation factors, the actual year-on-year growth rate of U.S. retail sales in April was only 2.3%, which also slightly exceeded the average level of the 10 years before the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5380f9766531eac5ffc32f0c834a9441\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a4b11564b1b863d8d25452f8b2b1e01\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of durable goods, under the high inflation and beautiful nominal data, the actual consumption of durable goods has dropped sharply.</b>After excluding inflation factors, the compound growth rate of actual consumption of durable goods in the United States recorded 9.5% in April, a sharp drop from the previous high of 18.9%, but still higher than the average level of 6.1% in the 10 years before the epidemic. From the structural point of view, contrary to the nominal growth rate, the actual compound growth rate of retail sales of major durable goods such as home appliances, furniture, automobiles, and building materials has dropped sharply, reaching 30%, 28%, 8%, and 5% of the historical percentile respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dacea5cb4090d85a9678c7bb963d8c3\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cfe4ff3933fc76ff02e78903c74d60\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/712b63ad80c741d1e26e3240603c0ece\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656cd766f77935dce43cb7695066de74\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of non-durable goods, the actual consumption growth rate is not as strong as the nominal growth rate, and the overall trend remains stable.</b>After excluding inflation, the compound growth rate of actual consumption of non-durable goods in the United States recorded 4.1% in April, which was also significantly lower than the previous high of 7.1%, but also higher than the average level of 2.1% in the 10 years before the epidemic. From the historical trend, unlike durable goods consumption, non-durable goods mostly correspond to rigid consumption demand, and their proportion in actual total consumption is generally stable at just over 20%. According to the breakdown data, the actual retail sales of clothing stores, sports goods stores, daily necessities shopping malls, etc. compounded year-on-year, basically maintaining a stable trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33cf10f55e97d525058774b85d1f1e66\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29d991fbfe58d57edc2927c2fc78e365\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Compared with the decline in commodity consumption from a high level, actual service consumption showed a relatively weak recovery trend.</b>PCE prices in the United States reached 6.3% year-on-year in April, much higher than the average level of less than 2% in previous years. Among them, there is a wide gap in inflationary pressures between goods and services. In April, the prices of durable goods and non-durable goods reached 8.4% and 10.1% year-on-year respectively; Relatively speaking, service prices were \"only\" 4.6% year-on-year. The reason is that, unlike the hot demand for commodity consumption, the demand for service consumption is restricted by factors such as repeated epidemics, and the actual compound growth rate is only 0.9%. Among them, in addition to the relatively rigid service consumption compound such as household operations and medical care, which remained positive year-on-year, the non-essential service consumption compound such as transportation and entertainment was still in a negative range year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab5b7dada9958b6b1f554aa44b1f68c\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35a788270cf5c3fcd9559c13589eb53\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481df1ade1365c9cb0ab6c3c1389017b\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa2f198bf75ba91ce0883d2a6a733d1\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>3. Where will American consumption go from here? Service consumption \"takes the lead\", and the \"erosion effect\" of inflation needs to be vigilant</p><p><b>As a leading indicator of service consumption, wage increase and employment restoration continue to exceed expectations and have entered a virtuous circle.</b>Historical review shows that the year-on-year trend of total salary income in the United States is synchronized or weakly ahead of consumption, especially service consumption, while the former mainly depends on the employment boom. At present, the number of job vacancies in the United States has been higher than 10 million for eight consecutive months, indicating that the labor supply still does not fully meet the demand. Under the strong demand for recruitment, \"post-epidemic trauma\" will still restrict labor supply and aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand, forcing enterprises to significantly raise wages and recruit people. Private salary income maintains high growth, which will provide strong support for service consumption<b>(For a detailed analysis of the U.S. job market, see How Far Is the U.S. Recession From the Job Market?).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73210cd580833cc7f145d3d9deee9fd4\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41058b422ed72e2da4812046a7b74ff5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca21b2ca421b226252a91c4dce72d128\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d584172e5d7105dd60d2bfbded328ae\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Coupled with the need for natural restoration of offline consumption after the epidemic, further recovery of service consumption can be expected.</b>Under the rapid expansion of commodity consumption, the proportion of service consumption in total consumption has dropped to 60.6%, which is more than 3 percentage points lower than before the epidemic, and there is a lot of room for repair. More importantly, under the background of the ebb of the epidemic in the United States, whether the consumption of leisure, entertainment, catering, accommodation and other services can be significantly boosted during the peak travel season will also be an important perspective to test the quality of American consumption. It should also be noted that the recovery of service consumption demand may bring about a further release of inflationary pressures. Taking history as a mirror, changes in service-side inflation in the United States often determine the overall inflation center level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77196fac6955c9af8fac0ba78b69226f\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/610bf343aa3487bea9028c09b3003fe0\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a32bf9eacf293bd27b7e87907c86b42\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23dc2a06fc604b0018ae9f2062017107\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Post-epidemic durable goods consumption has obvious pre-characteristics. Considering the suppression of related consumer demand due to the ebb of policies, the high growth in durable goods consumption may be coming to an end.</b>The high increase in durable goods consumption in the United States after the epidemic is inseparable from the large-scale fiscal subsidies and low interest rate environment. However, based on historical experience, this round of durable goods consumption has significant pre-characteristics. \"Excess\" durable goods consumption may exceed US $430 billion, equivalent to nearly 30% of durable goods consumption in 2019. Under the background of fiscal ebb and Federal Reserve rate hike, consumer demand for interest-rate-sensitive durable goods such as automobiles, especially, may be suppressed. The \"frenzy\" of durable goods consumption may be coming to an end, and it needs to be continuously tracked in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d3ca31a2507b2c2850aaf776f288855\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2755b915ca591107259626eceb2f1908\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5593acea5df6195474802c29ba8dfda7\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23a30af70030661a9b0de075d08b219f\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of non-durable goods, overall consumption may remain stable, but we need to be alert to the intensification of the \"erosion effect\" of high inflation on the consumption of some non-durable goods.</b>Since most of them correspond to rigid consumer demand, the growth rate of durable goods consumption may remain \"tepid\". However, it should be noted that the further recovery of service consumption during the peak travel season, coupled with limited supply, is expected to rise in oil prices, which may further push up inflation. Gasoline retail price data in May shows that the CPI energy commodity sub-item may continue to exceed 40% year-on-year. Referring to Bank of America's consumer survey report, continued energy inflation may have a further \"erosion effect\" on the consumption of some non-durable goods.<b>(For research and judgment on oil price trends, please see \"Why are oil prices\" so calm \"as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine heats up again?\").</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a75ea71a790217d6f04f719f4b243fa\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69649389fc34a7a9128d99ed99ee1795\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ee463234eb865851d8c689a45f9b54\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e8b078725d2c126b417ab9193a93cdb\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>After research, we found that:</b></p><p>(1) Overall, the compound growth rate of private consumption expenditure and retail sales in the United States in April reached 6% and 10.6% respectively, both of which were much higher than the average level of the past 10 years. In terms of structure, the compound growth rate of durable goods consumption fell back to 13.3%, which is still at a high level, and the compound growth rate of non-durable goods consumption was as high as 8.1%, which also remained at a high level. Compared with commodities, the compound growth rate of service consumption is \"only\" 4.1%, and the recovery is obviously lagging behind.</p><p>(2) Historically, the nominal and real consumption trends in the United States are basically the same, but under the disturbance of recent high inflation readings, the two have obviously diverged. In terms of structure, the compound growth rate of actual durable goods and non-durable goods consumption has declined, but they are still at historical highs. Compared with the decline in commodity consumption from a high level, the compound growth rate of actual service consumption in April was only 0.9%, maintaining a relatively weak recovery trend.</p><p>(3) Residents' salary increase and employment restoration have exceeded expectations, and under the scene restoration, the growth of service consumption can be expected and is expected to support overall consumption. However, it should be noted that the recovery of service consumption demand may bring about a further release of inflationary pressure. Under the background of stimulus ebb tide and rate hike, durable goods consumption is coming to an end or coming to an end; Consumption of non-durable goods may remain stable, but we need to be alert to the \"erosion effect\" of inflation.</p><p>Risk warning:</p><p><b>1. The recovery of service consumption in the United States is less than expected.</b>Part of the impact of the epidemic is likely to be long-term, thus reshaping the consumption habits of American residents.</p><p><b>2. The single-month data statistics fluctuate greatly.</b>U.S. private consumption and retail sales data fluctuate greatly in a single month, which may disturb the judgment of future trends.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The culmination of prosperity? US consumption, how far can it go</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe culmination of prosperity? US consumption, how far can it go\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-05 13:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Authors: Zhao Wei, Cao Jinqiu, Sinolink Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Summary:</b></p><p><b>The \"appearance\" of nominal consumption in the United States? Commodity consumption remains high, while service consumption recovery lags behind</b></p><p><b>Overall, private consumption expenditure and retail sales data in the United States in April were very strong.</b>After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, private consumption in the United States was once hit hard, and the nominal year-on-year growth rate once fell to-16.1%. As the U.S. government implements large-scale financial subsidies to residents and the impact of the epidemic on the economy tends to weaken, the compound growth rate of private consumption in the United States rose to 6% in April, far exceeding the average of 3.9% in the past 10 years. At the same time, another important consumption indicator, the compound growth rate of retail sales rose to 9.9% in April, which is also much higher than the average level of the past 10 years.</p><p><b>In terms of structure, commodity consumption remains high, and the recovery of service consumption lags behind.</b>In terms of commodities, the compound growth rate of durable goods consumption fell back to 13.3%, which is still at a high level, and the compound growth rate of non-durable goods consumption was 8.1%, which also remained at a high level. Among them, except for individual commodities such as home appliances, the consumption of most commodities is very eye-catching. Compared with commodities, the compound growth rate of service consumption is \"only\" 4.1%, and the recovery is obviously lagging behind. In terms of industries, consumption such as medical care has exceeded the pre-epidemic level, but consumption of catering, accommodation and entertainment has not yet been restored to the pre-epidemic level.</p><p><b>The \"Truth\" About Actual Consumption in America? Commodity consumption fell from its high level, while service consumption maintained a weak recovery</b></p><p><b>Historically, the nominal and actual consumption trends in the United States are basically the same, but there has been a significant differentiation recently.</b>The continued high inflation reading in the United States has obviously interfered with the stable relationship between nominal and real consumption, resulting in a clear differentiation between the two. After excluding inflation factors, the compound growth rate of actual consumption in the United States recorded 2.5% in April, slightly exceeding the average level of the 10 years before the epidemic. Retail sales. After excluding inflation factors, the actual year-on-year growth rate of U.S. retail sales in April was only 2.3%, which also slightly exceeded the average level of the 10 years before the epidemic.</p><p><b>In terms of structure, actual commodity consumption has fallen from a high level, but it is still high, and service consumption has maintained a relatively weak recovery trend.</b>Under high inflation, the compound growth rate of actual consumption of durable goods in the United States in April was 9.5%, which was still higher than the average level of 6.1% in the 10 years before the epidemic. The compound growth rate of automobiles and building materials was at historically low levels. In terms of non-durable goods, the compound growth rate was recorded at 4.1%, which was also higher than the average level of 2.1% in the 10 years before the epidemic. Compared with the decline in commodity consumption from a high level, the compound growth rate of actual service consumption in April was only 0.9%, maintaining a relatively weak recovery trend.</p><p><b>Where does U.S. consumption go from here? Service consumption \"takes the lead\", and the \"erosion effect\" of inflation needs to be vigilant</b></p><p><b>Residents' salary increase and employment recovery have exceeded expectations, and under the scenario recovery, the growth of service consumption can be expected and is expected to support overall consumption, but it should be noted that the pressure of service inflation continues to accumulate.</b>As a leading indicator of service consumption in the United States, residents' salary increases and employment recovery continue to exceed expectations and have entered a virtuous circle. Under the background of the ebb tide of the epidemic, whether the consumption of services such as leisure and entertainment can be significantly boosted in the peak travel season will also be a \"touchstone\" to test the quality of consumption. However, it should be noted that the recovery of service consumption demand may bring about a further release of inflationary pressure.</p><p><b>Under the background of stimulus ebb tide and rate hike, durable goods consumption is coming to an end or coming to an end; Consumption of non-durable goods may remain stable, but we need to be alert to the \"erosion effect\" of inflation.</b>After the epidemic, the pre-characteristics of durable goods consumption in the United States are obvious, with \"excess\" consumption exceeding US $430 billion, equivalent to nearly 30% of durable goods consumption in 2019. Under the background of stimulus ebb and rate hike, the demand for interest rate-sensitive durable goods such as automobiles may be suppressed. In terms of non-durable goods, rigid demand may support stable consumption, but we need to be alert to the intensification of the \"erosion effect\" of high inflation on non-durable goods.</p><p>Body:</p><p>1. The \"appearance\" of nominal consumption in the United States? Commodity consumption remains high, while service consumption recovery lags behind</p><p><b>Overall, U.S. private consumption spending in April and the latest April retail sales</b>①<b>The data and performance are very strong.</b>After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, as the \"ballast stone\" of the US economy, private consumption once suffered heavy losses, and the nominal year-on-year growth rate once fell to-16.1%. As the U.S. government implements large-scale financial subsidies to residents and the impact of the epidemic on the economy tends to weaken, the compound growth rate of U.S. private consumption ② has recovered to an extremely high level of 6%, far exceeding the average of 3.9% in the past 10 years. At the same time, another important consumption indicator, the compound growth rate of retail sales rose to 9.9% in April, which is also much higher than the average level of 4.3% in the past 10 years.</p><p>① Private consumption is a measure of consumer spending by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. It is a more comprehensive indicator of consumer spending than retail sales, and it is also the largest component of GDP (accounting for about 70%). Retail sales are survey data obtained by the U.S. Commerce Census Bureau through interviews with thousands of retailers, which mainly reflect changes in nominal consumption (mainly commodity consumption).</p><p>② In order to eliminate the interference of base effect, the data in 2021 and beyond are based on the data of the same period in 2019, and then the compound growth rate is calculated, the same below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5a00fdddba22296419e080671efcce\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21500bfb02edb9bb0cd689da22576615\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of commodities, the growth rate of durable goods consumption has slowed down, but remained high, and the growth rate of non-durable goods consumption has continued to recover.</b>Commodity consumption can be further split into durable goods and non-durable goods consumption. The former mainly includes automobiles, furniture, household appliances and other commodities with a service life of more than 3 years, while the latter mainly includes relatively consumable commodities such as food, clothing, and energy products. Specifically, April data showed that the compound growth rate of durable goods consumption dropped from the previous high of 20% to 13.3%, which is still at a high level; The compound growth rate of non-durable goods consumption is as high as 8.1%. Against the background of the continued expansion of commodity consumption, the proportion of durable goods and non-durable goods consumption in private consumption has increased from 11% and 20% before the epidemic to 13% and 22% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b600d905e75b26bd815dd46bf39e3f65\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0785710933970579a74fc15e388436f\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of structure, except for individual commodities such as home appliances, the consumption of most commodities is very eye-catching.</b>The sub-indicator of retail sales mainly reflects the consumption expenditure of American residents on goods. In terms of structure, the retail sales of motor vehicle and parts stores, non-store retail, daily necessities, and gas stations are relatively high, accounting for 20%, 16%, 12%, and 9% of the total retail sales respectively. Based on retail sales data, except for the low growth rate of retail sales of individual commodities such as home appliances, the compound growth rate of consumption of most commodities such as automobiles, furniture, clothing, and food remains high, basically at the historical percentile. More than 75%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9c2d64e5f153f86fed7e3721cbd225a\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17869c23d4ef58a10040a344306a412d\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1722b188ffe336c69166cab2f474075\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3232273c2b0ef73962a527c14cdb94c\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of service consumption, the consumption of medical care and other services has exceeded the pre-epidemic level, and the consumption of catering and other services has not yet been restored to the pre-epidemic level.</b>The repeated epidemic situation in the early stage obviously interfered with the recovery process of service consumption. Judging from the data in April, compared with the compound growth rate of commodity consumption of 9.9%, the compound growth rate of service consumption is \"only\" 4.1%, and the recovery is obviously lagging behind. In order to describe service consumption more comprehensively, we use credit card consumption data to capture the changes of service consumption sub-items. Credit card consumption data shows that the consumption of maintenance (family management) and outpatient health care (medical services) has exceeded the pre-epidemic level. Catering consumption, etc., because the indoor mask order was released relatively late, related consumption activities have not yet been restored to pre-epidemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce51dab39d446354be1442b3a00818a9\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5057371f89a45e8b2c24947d948ffef\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d262cf4300ba4e77efcc2ab8fe1ec45\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"656\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/824422748d70225488b30a02c3281d46\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb4d6f9ac13c71a0074592c7a8919351\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>2. The \"truth\" of actual consumption in the United States? Commodity consumption fell from its high level, while service consumption maintained a weak recovery</p><p><b>Historically, the nominal and actual consumption trends in the United States are basically the same, but there has been a significant differentiation recently.</b>The continued high inflation reading in the United States has obviously interfered with the stable relationship between nominal and real consumption, resulting in a clear differentiation between the two. After excluding inflation, the actual consumption level in the United States is not as strong as the nominal statistics. The actual compound growth rate in April recorded 2.5%, slightly higher than the average level of 2.2% in the 10 years before the epidemic. After excluding inflation factors, the actual year-on-year growth rate of U.S. retail sales in April was only 2.3%, which also slightly exceeded the average level of the 10 years before the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5380f9766531eac5ffc32f0c834a9441\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a4b11564b1b863d8d25452f8b2b1e01\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of durable goods, under the high inflation and beautiful nominal data, the actual consumption of durable goods has dropped sharply.</b>After excluding inflation factors, the compound growth rate of actual consumption of durable goods in the United States recorded 9.5% in April, a sharp drop from the previous high of 18.9%, but still higher than the average level of 6.1% in the 10 years before the epidemic. From the structural point of view, contrary to the nominal growth rate, the actual compound growth rate of retail sales of major durable goods such as home appliances, furniture, automobiles, and building materials has dropped sharply, reaching 30%, 28%, 8%, and 5% of the historical percentile respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dacea5cb4090d85a9678c7bb963d8c3\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cfe4ff3933fc76ff02e78903c74d60\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/712b63ad80c741d1e26e3240603c0ece\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656cd766f77935dce43cb7695066de74\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of non-durable goods, the actual consumption growth rate is not as strong as the nominal growth rate, and the overall trend remains stable.</b>After excluding inflation, the compound growth rate of actual consumption of non-durable goods in the United States recorded 4.1% in April, which was also significantly lower than the previous high of 7.1%, but also higher than the average level of 2.1% in the 10 years before the epidemic. From the historical trend, unlike durable goods consumption, non-durable goods mostly correspond to rigid consumption demand, and their proportion in actual total consumption is generally stable at just over 20%. According to the breakdown data, the actual retail sales of clothing stores, sports goods stores, daily necessities shopping malls, etc. compounded year-on-year, basically maintaining a stable trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33cf10f55e97d525058774b85d1f1e66\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29d991fbfe58d57edc2927c2fc78e365\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Compared with the decline in commodity consumption from a high level, actual service consumption showed a relatively weak recovery trend.</b>PCE prices in the United States reached 6.3% year-on-year in April, much higher than the average level of less than 2% in previous years. Among them, there is a wide gap in inflationary pressures between goods and services. In April, the prices of durable goods and non-durable goods reached 8.4% and 10.1% year-on-year respectively; Relatively speaking, service prices were \"only\" 4.6% year-on-year. The reason is that, unlike the hot demand for commodity consumption, the demand for service consumption is restricted by factors such as repeated epidemics, and the actual compound growth rate is only 0.9%. Among them, in addition to the relatively rigid service consumption compound such as household operations and medical care, which remained positive year-on-year, the non-essential service consumption compound such as transportation and entertainment was still in a negative range year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab5b7dada9958b6b1f554aa44b1f68c\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35a788270cf5c3fcd9559c13589eb53\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481df1ade1365c9cb0ab6c3c1389017b\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa2f198bf75ba91ce0883d2a6a733d1\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>3. Where will American consumption go from here? Service consumption \"takes the lead\", and the \"erosion effect\" of inflation needs to be vigilant</p><p><b>As a leading indicator of service consumption, wage increase and employment restoration continue to exceed expectations and have entered a virtuous circle.</b>Historical review shows that the year-on-year trend of total salary income in the United States is synchronized or weakly ahead of consumption, especially service consumption, while the former mainly depends on the employment boom. At present, the number of job vacancies in the United States has been higher than 10 million for eight consecutive months, indicating that the labor supply still does not fully meet the demand. Under the strong demand for recruitment, \"post-epidemic trauma\" will still restrict labor supply and aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand, forcing enterprises to significantly raise wages and recruit people. Private salary income maintains high growth, which will provide strong support for service consumption<b>(For a detailed analysis of the U.S. job market, see How Far Is the U.S. Recession From the Job Market?).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73210cd580833cc7f145d3d9deee9fd4\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41058b422ed72e2da4812046a7b74ff5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca21b2ca421b226252a91c4dce72d128\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d584172e5d7105dd60d2bfbded328ae\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Coupled with the need for natural restoration of offline consumption after the epidemic, further recovery of service consumption can be expected.</b>Under the rapid expansion of commodity consumption, the proportion of service consumption in total consumption has dropped to 60.6%, which is more than 3 percentage points lower than before the epidemic, and there is a lot of room for repair. More importantly, under the background of the ebb of the epidemic in the United States, whether the consumption of leisure, entertainment, catering, accommodation and other services can be significantly boosted during the peak travel season will also be an important perspective to test the quality of American consumption. It should also be noted that the recovery of service consumption demand may bring about a further release of inflationary pressures. Taking history as a mirror, changes in service-side inflation in the United States often determine the overall inflation center level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77196fac6955c9af8fac0ba78b69226f\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/610bf343aa3487bea9028c09b3003fe0\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a32bf9eacf293bd27b7e87907c86b42\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23dc2a06fc604b0018ae9f2062017107\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Post-epidemic durable goods consumption has obvious pre-characteristics. Considering the suppression of related consumer demand due to the ebb of policies, the high growth in durable goods consumption may be coming to an end.</b>The high increase in durable goods consumption in the United States after the epidemic is inseparable from the large-scale fiscal subsidies and low interest rate environment. However, based on historical experience, this round of durable goods consumption has significant pre-characteristics. \"Excess\" durable goods consumption may exceed US $430 billion, equivalent to nearly 30% of durable goods consumption in 2019. Under the background of fiscal ebb and Federal Reserve rate hike, consumer demand for interest-rate-sensitive durable goods such as automobiles, especially, may be suppressed. The \"frenzy\" of durable goods consumption may be coming to an end, and it needs to be continuously tracked in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d3ca31a2507b2c2850aaf776f288855\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2755b915ca591107259626eceb2f1908\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5593acea5df6195474802c29ba8dfda7\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23a30af70030661a9b0de075d08b219f\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of non-durable goods, overall consumption may remain stable, but we need to be alert to the intensification of the \"erosion effect\" of high inflation on the consumption of some non-durable goods.</b>Since most of them correspond to rigid consumer demand, the growth rate of durable goods consumption may remain \"tepid\". However, it should be noted that the further recovery of service consumption during the peak travel season, coupled with limited supply, is expected to rise in oil prices, which may further push up inflation. Gasoline retail price data in May shows that the CPI energy commodity sub-item may continue to exceed 40% year-on-year. Referring to Bank of America's consumer survey report, continued energy inflation may have a further \"erosion effect\" on the consumption of some non-durable goods.<b>(For research and judgment on oil price trends, please see \"Why are oil prices\" so calm \"as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine heats up again?\").</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a75ea71a790217d6f04f719f4b243fa\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69649389fc34a7a9128d99ed99ee1795\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ee463234eb865851d8c689a45f9b54\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e8b078725d2c126b417ab9193a93cdb\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>After research, we found that:</b></p><p>(1) Overall, the compound growth rate of private consumption expenditure and retail sales in the United States in April reached 6% and 10.6% respectively, both of which were much higher than the average level of the past 10 years. In terms of structure, the compound growth rate of durable goods consumption fell back to 13.3%, which is still at a high level, and the compound growth rate of non-durable goods consumption was as high as 8.1%, which also remained at a high level. Compared with commodities, the compound growth rate of service consumption is \"only\" 4.1%, and the recovery is obviously lagging behind.</p><p>(2) Historically, the nominal and real consumption trends in the United States are basically the same, but under the disturbance of recent high inflation readings, the two have obviously diverged. In terms of structure, the compound growth rate of actual durable goods and non-durable goods consumption has declined, but they are still at historical highs. Compared with the decline in commodity consumption from a high level, the compound growth rate of actual service consumption in April was only 0.9%, maintaining a relatively weak recovery trend.</p><p>(3) Residents' salary increase and employment restoration have exceeded expectations, and under the scene restoration, the growth of service consumption can be expected and is expected to support overall consumption. However, it should be noted that the recovery of service consumption demand may bring about a further release of inflationary pressure. Under the background of stimulus ebb tide and rate hike, durable goods consumption is coming to an end or coming to an end; Consumption of non-durable goods may remain stable, but we need to be alert to the \"erosion effect\" of inflation.</p><p>Risk warning:</p><p><b>1. The recovery of service consumption in the United States is less than expected.</b>Part of the impact of the epidemic is likely to be long-term, thus reshaping the consumption habits of American residents.</p><p><b>2. The single-month data statistics fluctuate greatly.</b>U.S. private consumption and retail sales data fluctuate greatly in a single month, which may disturb the judgment of future trends.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661102\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/987ab6715591b2ad7014d2cf9348920e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661102","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1111513232","content_text":"作者：国金证券研究所赵伟、曹金丘摘要：美国名义消费的“表象”？商品消费维持高位，服务消费修复相对滞后整体来看，美国4月私人消费支出及零售销售数据，表现都非常强劲。2020年疫情爆发后，美国私人消费一度遭受重创，名义同比增速一度跌至-16.1%。伴随着美国政府对居民实施大规模财政补贴，以及疫情对经济的影响趋于弱化，美国4月私人消费复合增速升至6%，远超近10年均值的3.9%。同时，另一重要的消费指标，零售销售复合增速在4月升至9.9%，也远高于近10年均值水平。分结构来看，商品消费维持高位，服务消费修复相对滞后。商品方面，耐用品消费复合增速回落至13.3%，依然处于高位，非耐用品消费复合增速为8.1%，同样维持高位。其中，除了家电等个别商品，绝大部分商品消费都非常亮眼。相比商品，服务消费复合增速“仅为”4.1%、修复明显滞后。分行业来看，医疗护理等消费已经超过疫情前水平，但餐饮住宿、娱乐消费等尚未修复至疫情前水平。美国实际消费的“真相”？商品消费自高位回落，服务消费维持弱复苏从历史上来看，美国名义、实际消费走势基本一致，但近期出现明显分化。美国通胀读数的持续高企，很明显干扰了名义、实际消费之间走势的稳健关系，导致二者出现了明显分化。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月实际消费复合增速录得2.5%，略超疫情前10年均值水平。零售销售方面。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月零售销售实际同比增速也仅为2.3%，同样略超疫情前10年均值水平。分结构来看，实际商品消费已从高位回落、但依然高企，服务消费维持相对弱复苏态势。通胀高企下，美国4月耐用品实际消费复合增速9.5%，仍高于疫情前10年均值水平的6.1%，汽车、建材等复合增速均处于历史低位。非耐用品方面，复合增速录得4.1%，也高于疫情前10年均值水平的2.1%。相比起商品消费从高位回落，4月实际服务消费复合增速仅录得0.9%，维持相对弱复苏态势。美国消费将何去何从？服务消费“挑大梁”，通胀的“侵蚀效应”需警惕居民薪资提升与就业修复超预期，以及场景修复下，服务消费增长可期、有望支撑整体消费，但需留意服务通胀压力继续累积。作为美国服务消费的领先指标，居民薪资提升与就业修复，持续超预期且已进入良性循环。疫情退潮背景下，休闲娱乐等服务消费的能否在出行旺季获得明显提振，也将是检验消费成色的“试金石”。但需留意的是，服务消费需求复苏，或将带来通胀压力的进一步释放。刺激退潮及加息背景下，耐用品消费前置或行近尾声；非耐用品消费或维持平稳，但需警惕通胀的“侵蚀效应”。疫后美国耐用品消费前置特征显著，“超额”消费或超4300亿美元，相当于2019年耐用品消费的近3成。刺激退潮及加息背景下，汽车等利率敏感型耐用品的需求，或将受到抑制。非耐用品方面，刚性需求或将支撑消费平稳，但需警惕高通胀对非耐用品的“侵蚀效应”加剧凸显。正文：1、美国名义消费的“表象”？商品消费维持高位，服务消费修复相对滞后整体来看，美国4月私人消费支出及最新的4月零售销售①数据，表现都非常强劲。2020年疫情爆发后，作为美国经济的“压舱石”，私人消费一度遭受重创，名义同比增速一度跌至-16.1%。伴随着美国政府对居民实施大规模财政补贴，以及疫情对经济的影响趋于弱化，美国私人消费复合增速②修复至6%的极高水平，远超近10年均值的3.9%。与此同时，另一重要的消费指标，零售销售复合增速在4月升至9.9%，同样远高于近10年均值水平的4.3%。①私人消费是美国经济分析局对消费者支出的测度，是比零售销售更全面的消费者支出指标，也是GDP的最大组成部分（占比约7成）。零售销售是美国商务普查局通过访问数千家零售商得到的调查数据，主要反映名义消费（主要是商品消费）的变化。②为剔除基数效应的干扰，2021年及以后的数据均以2019年同期数据为基准，进而计算复合增速，下同。商品方面，耐用品消费增速有所回落、但维持高位，非耐用品消费增速持续修复。商品消费，可进一步拆分为耐用品、非耐用品消费，前者主要包括汽车、家具、家电等使用年限一般超过3年的商品，后者主要包括食品、服装、能源品等相对易耗的商品。具体来看，4月数据显示，耐用品消费复合增速从前期20%的高点回落至13.3%，依然处于高位；非耐用品消费复合增速高达8.1%。商品消费持续扩张下的背景下，耐用品、非耐用品消费占私人消费比重，分别从疫情前的11%、20%增长至13%、22%。分结构来看，除了家电等个别商品，绝大部分商品消费都非常亮眼。零售销售分项指标，主要反应美国居民在商品上的消费支出。分结构来看，机动车辆及零部件店、无店铺零售业、日用品、加油站零售额较高，分别占总零售销售比重为20%、16%、12%、9%。基于零售销售数据来看，除了家电等个别商品零售增速增速较低外，汽车、家具、服装、食品等绝大部分商品消费的复合增速维持高位，基本上都处于历史百分位的75%以上。服务消费方面，医疗护理等服务消费已经超过疫情前水平，餐饮消费等尚未修复至疫情前水平。前期疫情反复，明显干扰了服务消费修复进程。从4月数据来看，相比起高达9.9%的商品消费复合增速，服务消费复合增速“仅为”4.1%、修复明显滞后。为了更全面地刻画服务消费，我们使用信用卡消费数据去捕捉服务消费分项变化。信用卡消费数据显示，维修保养（家庭经营）、门诊保健（医疗服务类）消费已经超过疫情前水平。餐饮消费等，因为室内口罩令放开的相对较晚，相关消费活动尚未修复至疫情前水平。2、美国实际消费的“真相”？商品消费自高位回落，服务消费维持弱复苏从历史上来看，美国名义、实际消费走势基本一致，但近期出现明显分化。美国通胀读数的持续高企，很明显干扰了名义、实际消费之间走势的稳健关系，导致二者出现了明显分化。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国实际消费水平并未如名义统计值那样异常强劲，4月实际复合增速录得2.5%，略高于疫情前10年均值水平的2.2%。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月零售销售实际同比增速也仅为2.3%，同样略超疫情前10年均值水平。耐用品方面，通胀高企下，靓丽的名义数据背后，耐用品实际消费已大幅回落。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月耐用品实际消费复合增速录得9.5%，较前期高点的18.9%大幅回落，不过仍然高于疫情前10年均值水平的6.1%。从结构来看，与名义增速完全相反，家电、家具、汽车、建材等主要耐用品零售额实际复合增速均大幅回落，分别处于历史百分位的30%、28%、8%、5%。非耐用品方面，实际消费增速也不如名义增速般强劲，整体维持平稳态势。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月非耐用品实际消费复合增速录得4.1%，也较前期高点的7.1%明显回落，不过也高于疫情前10年均值水平的2.1%。从历史走势来看，与耐用品消费不同的是，非耐用品由于多对应于刚性消费需求，占实际总消费的比重一般稳定在20%出头。分项数据来看，服装店、运动商品店、日用品商场等实际零售额复合同比，基本上维持平稳走势。相比起商品消费从高位回落，实际服务消费呈现相对弱复苏态势。美国4月PCE物价同比达到6.3%，远高于往年不足2%的平均水平。其中，商品与服务通胀压力差距悬殊。4月耐用品、非耐用品物价同比分别达到8.4%、10.1%；相对而言，服务物价同比“仅为”4.6%。原因在于，不同于火爆的商品消费需求，服务消费需求受到疫情反复等因素的制约，实际复合增速仅仅录得0.9%。其中，除了家庭运营、医疗等相对刚性的服务消费复合同比维持正值，交运、娱乐等非必要的服务消费复合同比仍在负值区间。3、美国消费将何去何从？服务消费“挑大梁”，通胀的“侵蚀效应”需警惕作为服务消费的领先指标，薪资提升与就业修复，持续超预期且已进入良性循环。历史回溯显示，美国薪酬总收入同比的走势同步或弱领先于消费、尤其是服务消费，而前者主要取决于就业景气。目前来看，美国职位空缺数已连续8个月高于1000万个，表明劳动力供给仍没有充分满足需求。旺盛的招工需求下，“疫后创伤”等仍将制约劳动力供给、加剧供需矛盾，使得企业不得不大幅加薪招人。私人薪酬收入维持高增，将对服务消费提供强力支持（关于美国就业市场的详细分析，请参见《从就业市场，看美国衰退有多远？》）。叠加疫后线下消费自然修复的需要等，服务消费进一步复苏可期。商品消费高速扩张下，服务消费占总消费比重下降至60.6%，较疫情前低出超过3个百分点，存在较大的修复空间。更为重要的是，美国疫情退潮背景下，休闲娱乐、餐饮、住宿等服务消费的能否在出行旺季获得明显提振，也将是检验美国消费成色的重要视角。还需注意的是，服务消费需求复苏，或将带来通胀压力的进一步释放。以史为鉴，美国服务端通胀变化，往往决定整体通胀中枢水平。疫后耐用品消费前置特征显著，再考虑到政策退潮对相关消费需求的抑制，耐用品消费高增或行近尾声。美国疫后耐用品消费高增，与大规模财政补贴、低利率环境密不可分。但基于历史经验来看，本轮耐用品消费前置特征显著，“超额”耐用品消费或超4300亿美元，相当于2019年耐用品消费的近3成。财政退潮、美联储加息背景下，尤其是汽车等利率敏感型耐用品的消费需求，或将受到抑制。耐用品消费前置的“狂热”或行近尾声，未来还需持续跟踪。非耐用品方面，整体消费或维持平稳，但需警惕通胀高企对部分非耐用品消费的“侵蚀效应”加剧凸显。由于大多对应刚性消费需求，耐用品消费增速或将维持“不温不火”。但需注意的是，出行旺季下服务消费的进一步复苏，叠加供给受限，油价上涨可期、或将进一步推升通胀。5月汽油零售价数据显示，CPI能源商品分项同比或将继续超40%。参考美国银行的消费者调查报告来看，持续的能源通胀，可能将对部分非耐用品消费产生进一步的“侵蚀效应”。（关于油价走势研判，请参见《俄乌冲突再升温，油价为何“很淡定”？》）。经过研究，我们发现：（1）整体来看，美国4月私人消费支出及零售销售复合增速，分别达到6%、10.6%，均也远高于近10年均值水平。分结构来看，耐用品消费复合增速回落至13.3%，依然处于高位，非耐用品消费复合增速高达8.1%，同样维持高位。相比商品，服务消费复合增速“仅为”4.1%、修复明显滞后。（2）从历史上来看，美国名义、实际消费走势基本一致，但近期高通胀读数的扰动下，二者出现明显分化。分结构来看，实际耐用品、非耐用品消费复合增速均有所回落，但都仍处于历史高位。相比起商品消费从高位回落，4月实际服务消费复合增速仅录得0.9%，维持相对弱复苏态势。（3）居民薪资提升与就业修复超预期，以及场景修复下，服务消费增长可期、有望支撑整体消费。但需注意的是，服务消费需求复苏，或将带来通胀压力的进一步释放。刺激退潮及加息背景下，耐用品消费前置或行近尾声；非耐用品消费或维持平稳，但需警惕通胀的“侵蚀效应”。风险提示：1、美国服务消费修复不及预期。疫情带来的部分影响有可能长期化，进而重塑美国居民的消费习惯。2、单月数据统计波动较大。美国私人消费、零售销售数据单月波动较大，有可能会扰动对未来趋势的判断。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9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AMZN)、Roku(Nasdaq: ROKU)、微軟(Nasdaq: MSFT)，以及網絡安全公司Zscaler(Nasdaq: ZS)。最後一家應該會在短期內看到更多的拋售壓力(等到壓力減輕後再看這一家)。好消息(如果有的話)是，我們正在進入一個尋求長期買入的散戶投資者應該考慮進入市場的時代。如果一個人在尋找中長期價值，沃倫·巴菲特一直是值得聆聽和模仿的先知。巴菲特最近在石油領域買進了雪佛龍(NYSE: CVX)和西方石油公司(NYSE: OXY)。在科技領域，巴菲特買進了動視暴雪(Nasdaq: ATVI)。當與微軟的交易完成時，這隻股票的股價應該會上漲20%或更多。雖然這可能需要長達一年的時間，但12個月的預測正是投資者現在需要關注的投","listText":"目前，標普500指數較1月份創下的歷史高點下跌了20%以上。在這之前的一週，交易員們試圖擺脫一隻飢餓的熊，在這一週，上漲的跡象被證明是不可持續的，是宇宙判斷的短暫失誤。在超過20%的跌幅下，我們確實看到了一個熊市，這個市場見證了標準普爾、道瓊斯和納斯達克指數連續7周下跌。在本週，我預計上週的暴跌會重演，儘管本週五收盤時股指會更低。現在唯一的問題是，市場情緒是否會在本週一和週二推動股指從上週五收盤點位走高，以使投資者能夠在股價不那麼低的情況下出脫部分頭寸。這種推動即使發生了也將是短暫的。到週三，所有的跡象都將指向一個糟糕的週末。如果週一市場更低呢?然後，未來幾個月不可避免的10%—15%的額外下跌將被略微回調，這可能是一件好事。市場越是試圖避開熊市，就會有越多的投資者(包括我自己)可能會進入一些短期交易，希望在他們的在線投資組合中看到更環保的東西。但短期期權或波動交易的時代已經結束:尋找可能進一步下跌但值得永久持有的低價股票的時代真正開始了。如果你打算在明年這個時候之前購買，甚至不用看它們的股價，你可以在這裏看看亞馬遜(Nasdaq: AMZN)、Roku(Nasdaq: ROKU)、微軟(Nasdaq: MSFT)，以及網絡安全公司Zscaler(Nasdaq: ZS)。最後一家應該會在短期內看到更多的拋售壓力(等到壓力減輕後再看這一家)。好消息(如果有的話)是，我們正在進入一個尋求長期買入的散戶投資者應該考慮進入市場的時代。如果一個人在尋找中長期價值，沃倫·巴菲特一直是值得聆聽和模仿的先知。巴菲特最近在石油領域買進了雪佛龍(NYSE: CVX)和西方石油公司(NYSE: OXY)。在科技領域，巴菲特買進了動視暴雪(Nasdaq: ATVI)。當與微軟的交易完成時，這隻股票的股價應該會上漲20%或更多。雖然這可能需要長達一年的時間，但12個月的預測正是投資者現在需要關注的投","text":"目前，標普500指數較1月份創下的歷史高點下跌了20%以上。在這之前的一週，交易員們試圖擺脫一隻飢餓的熊，在這一週，上漲的跡象被證明是不可持續的，是宇宙判斷的短暫失誤。在超過20%的跌幅下，我們確實看到了一個熊市，這個市場見證了標準普爾、道瓊斯和納斯達克指數連續7周下跌。在本週，我預計上週的暴跌會重演，儘管本週五收盤時股指會更低。現在唯一的問題是，市場情緒是否會在本週一和週二推動股指從上週五收盤點位走高，以使投資者能夠在股價不那麼低的情況下出脫部分頭寸。這種推動即使發生了也將是短暫的。到週三，所有的跡象都將指向一個糟糕的週末。如果週一市場更低呢?然後，未來幾個月不可避免的10%—15%的額外下跌將被略微回調，這可能是一件好事。市場越是試圖避開熊市，就會有越多的投資者(包括我自己)可能會進入一些短期交易，希望在他們的在線投資組合中看到更環保的東西。但短期期權或波動交易的時代已經結束:尋找可能進一步下跌但值得永久持有的低價股票的時代真正開始了。如果你打算在明年這個時候之前購買，甚至不用看它們的股價，你可以在這裏看看亞馬遜(Nasdaq: AMZN)、Roku(Nasdaq: ROKU)、微軟(Nasdaq: MSFT)，以及網絡安全公司Zscaler(Nasdaq: ZS)。最後一家應該會在短期內看到更多的拋售壓力(等到壓力減輕後再看這一家)。好消息(如果有的話)是，我們正在進入一個尋求長期買入的散戶投資者應該考慮進入市場的時代。如果一個人在尋找中長期價值，沃倫·巴菲特一直是值得聆聽和模仿的先知。巴菲特最近在石油領域買進了雪佛龍(NYSE: CVX)和西方石油公司(NYSE: OXY)。在科技領域，巴菲特買進了動視暴雪(Nasdaq: ATVI)。當與微軟的交易完成時，這隻股票的股價應該會上漲20%或更多。雖然這可能需要長達一年的時間，但12個月的預測正是投資者現在需要關注的投","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/638e6f4213f3d829415f65c84bcb556b"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614083651","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059863616,"gmtCreate":1654331612135,"gmtModify":1676535433024,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gh","listText":"Gh","text":"Gh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059863616","repostId":"1158395460","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158395460","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654310619,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158395460?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 10:43","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng and Feng Liu captured Q2 big bull stocks! There are also tens of billions of private equity holdings plummeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158395460","media":"中国证券报","summary":"数据显示，二季度以来近六成百亿私募隐形重仓股下跌。其中，医药生物行业的隐形重仓股跌幅居前。有百亿私募损失惨重，一只重仓股就带来了约1亿元的浮亏。不过，高毅邓晓峰、冯柳以及少数派投资等，捕获二季度的大牛","content":"<p><div>The data shows that since the second quarter, nearly 60% of the tens of billions of private equity invisible awkwardness stocks have fallen. Among them, the invisible Awkwardness stocks in the pharmaceutical and biological industry were among the top losers. Tens of billions of private equity suffered heavy losses, and a heavily held stock brought about a floating loss of about 100 million yuan. However, Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng, Feng Liu and minority investments captured the big bull stocks in the second quarter. Deng Xiaofeng's Awkwardness shares have soared 47.59%. Since the second quarter, especially after May, the A-share market has shown a rebound trend, with automobiles, military industry, new energy, etc. rebounding significantly. Some tens of billions of invisible awkwardness stocks at the end of the first quarter of private equity also achieved good performance. Among them, private equity tycoons Gao Yi and Deng Xiaofeng...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"zgzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng and Feng Liu captured Q2 big bull stocks! There are also tens of billions of private equity holdings plummeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng and Feng Liu captured Q2 big bull stocks! There are also tens of billions of private equity holdings plummeting\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-04 10:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The data shows that since the second quarter, nearly 60% of the tens of billions of private equity invisible awkwardness stocks have fallen. Among them, the invisible Awkwardness stocks in the pharmaceutical and biological industry were among the top losers. Tens of billions of private equity suffered heavy losses, and a heavily held stock brought about a floating loss of about 100 million yuan. However, Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng, Feng Liu and minority investments captured the big bull stocks in the second quarter. Deng Xiaofeng's Awkwardness shares have soared 47.59%. Since the second quarter, especially after May, the A-share market has shown a rebound trend, with automobiles, military industry, new energy, etc. rebounding significantly. Some tens of billions of invisible awkwardness stocks at the end of the first quarter of private equity also achieved good performance. Among them, private equity tycoons Gao Yi and Deng Xiaofeng...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ\">中国证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数","02333":"长城汽车","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158395460","content_text":"数据显示，二季度以来近六成百亿私募隐形重仓股下跌。其中，医药生物行业的隐形重仓股跌幅居前。有百亿私募损失惨重，一只重仓股就带来了约1亿元的浮亏。不过，高毅邓晓峰、冯柳以及少数派投资等，捕获二季度的大牛股。邓晓峰重仓股大涨47.59%二季度以来，尤其是进入5月之后，A股市场呈现出反弹趋势，汽车、军工、新能源等反弹幅度较大。一些百亿私募一季度末的隐形重仓股，也取得了不俗的表现。其中，私募大佬高毅邓晓峰，就捕获了一只大牛股华秦科技。资料显示，华秦科技成立于1992年，在今年3月初上市，是一家主要从事特种功能材料的军工企业，业务包括隐身材料、伪装材料及防护材料的研发、生产和销售，产品主要应用于重大国防武器装备如飞机、主战坦克、舰船、导弹等。Wind数据显示，一季度末，邓晓峰管理的高毅晓峰2号致信基金和高毅晓峰鸿远集合资金信托计划分别位列华秦科技的第二和第三大流通股东，分别持有86万股和76万股。二季度以来，华秦科技大涨47.59%。高毅旗下另一位私募大佬冯柳管理的高毅邻山1号远望基金，也有一只隐形重仓股龙软科技二季度以来上涨33.18%。龙软科技是一家专注于煤矿基础地理信息系统与专业应用软件开发与销售的煤炭智能开采厂商。高毅邻山1号远望基金自2021年三季度首次进入龙软科技前十大流通股东之列，持股100万股，并一直持有，期间龙软科技股价经历了不小的波动。冯柳管理的高毅邻山1号远望基金的另一只隐形重仓股容知日新，是一家专注于工业互联网领域的工业设备智能运维商。自2021年三季度上市以来披露的定期报告显示，高毅邻山1号远望基金一直是该公司的第一大流通股东。二季度以来，该股上涨超过30%。此外，百亿私募少数派投资、玄元投资和宁波宁聚的隐形重仓股冰川网络，二季度以来实现了48.89%的涨幅。玄元投资重仓的建筑材料公司祁连山，二季度以来上涨了29.01%。邓晓峰持有的爱博医疗、源乐晟持有的明月镜片、清和泉持有的立中集团、盘京投资持有的兰花科创，二季度以来都实现了超过20%的涨幅。近六成隐形重仓股下跌不过，几家欢喜几家愁，有一些百亿私募二季度被隐形重仓股大幅拖累。百亿私募重仓的三只医药生物股普利制药、振东制药和诚达药业，二季度以来跌幅居前，分别下跌37.54%、33.82%和29.66%。其中，一季度末，盘京投资旗下的盛信2期私募证券投资基金重仓普利制药396万股，慎知资产更是重仓该公司近610万股。若二季度没有减持，则两家公司二季度以来在该股票上分别浮亏约6000万和1亿元。整体来看，第三方平台统计的116只百亿私募隐形重仓股中，二季度以来有48只上涨，接近六成下跌。不过，展望后市，不少机构表达了乐观的态度。清和泉资本表示，5月市场受疫情消退、稳增长政策加码、美债冲高回落等影响向上修复。市场经过系统性调整后，悲观情绪得到较大程度释放，相应的市场投资机会越来越多。源乐晟表示，A股市场大概率已经触底，将慢慢走出情绪底部。具体到行业上，首选需求不受疫情影响或在疫情好转后需求可以快速恢复高增长的板块，如光伏、风电、部分制造业等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"02333":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"BND":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059863117,"gmtCreate":1654331598739,"gmtModify":1676535433015,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gbb","listText":"Gbb","text":"Gbb","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059863117","repostId":"1195925879","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059863349,"gmtCreate":1654331587481,"gmtModify":1676535433017,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tgv","listText":"Tgv","text":"Tgv","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059863349","repostId":"1104028566","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059869726,"gmtCreate":1654331570466,"gmtModify":1676535432994,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Vh","listText":"Vh","text":"Vh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059869726","repostId":"1115257762","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115257762","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654327837,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115257762?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 15:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"flywheel\" stalled, Netflix's moat is becoming its ceiling?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115257762","media":"证券市场红周刊","summary":"当新用户增速因为基数巨大而不得不放缓时，奈飞就必须做出二选一的抉择：1.产生大量的自由现金流，证明规模经济；2.可以亏钱，但必须在高基数上持续高速成长。目前看，奈飞两个都做不到。据外媒报道，由于收入增","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>When the growth rate of new users has to slow down due to the huge base, Netflix must make a choice between two: 1. Generate a large amount of free cash flow and prove economies of scale; 2. You can lose money, but you must continue to grow at a high speed on a high base. At present, Netflix can't do either.</p><p>According to foreign media reports, streaming media giant NetFlix announced that it would lay off about 150 employees and some agency contractors due to slowing revenue growth. Its first-quarter financial report released at the end of April showed that its net profit in the first quarter fell by 6% year-on-year, and its new paying users decreased by 200,000. This is also the first time since 2011 that Netflix's paying users have decreased instead of increasing. Under multiple pressures, Netflix's stock price plummeted. So is there a good opportunity for Netflix to deploy on the left? The author believes that if you buy now, the loss limit may be about 20%, but if you consider the capital efficiency, it is difficult to draw a conclusion. In the future, we still need to pay attention to when the growth of its paying users will stabilize and whether the moat of global layout is solid.</p><p><b>\"Flywheel\" Stall Users First Negative Growth</b></p><p>The final equity value of any company is equal to the sum of the cash flows that can be generated in its life cycle projected to the present at an appropriate discount rate. Being a review for Netflix will be very helpful for us to understand this concept.</p><p>In the past, if you wanted to watch a movie, you usually went to a place like a library, borrowed a few boxes of DVDs for a little money, and then took them home to watch them. But because of the emergence of Netflix, DVD rental boss Blockbuster declared bankruptcy in 2011. What Netflix did in the early days was very similar to what Amazon did in the early days, making it possible to rent DVDs online and deliver them to customers' homes, thereby reducing operating costs, giving profits to consumers, and expanding market share.</p><p>Figure 1 An old Blockbuster store</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39c0e8b8f31ff8b893e95f1bebc2dbf6\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Reed Hastings, the founder of Netflix, is a visionary. He observed that with the development of cloud technology and the strengthening of computing power, videos and movies will gradually be delivered in digital form instead of entities in the future. Therefore, he chose to subvert himself and refocus on the streaming media business.</p><p>Many articles say that this is Netflix's \"second growth curve\", but the author's view is slightly different. Netflix's digital distribution of content is actually a natural extension of its original business. Because whether it is the online customer interaction interface, the collection and reuse of customer information, and the self-strengthening feedback chain of the recommendation engine, they can be directly migrated from the original business.</p><p>Although the definition of streaming media business is very simple, the deeper thing lies in what kind of business model Netflix wants to use to strengthen its competitive advantage. If it is just a channel provider of content, paying according to the convertibility of the content, such as buying a movie from Paramont, and the cost of distribution is directly proportional to the customer, then there will be no economies of scale and network effects at all. Therefore, the solution that Netflix thought of was to turn variable costs into fixed costs. For example, signing a fixed-price contract with a content provider or studio. And made a big gamble: spend $100 million to produce two seasons of \"House of Cards\" starring Kevin Spacey. The logic behind this is also very simple: since it doesn't work outward, then directly produce content inward, forcing content production to become part of the streaming media business model, making content production a fixed cost, and turning the entire economies of scale \"flywheel\" is established.</p><p>Netflix's strategy has achieved unprecedented results. In the world of the Internet, strong scale and network are the most reliable moats. In 2018, Warner's HBO, once a high-end leader in the streaming media industry, has been trapped in the United States because of its cable TV business genes. It has completely missed the opportunity of global expansion and is no longer able to compete with Netflix.</p><p>It was not until Disney Streaming was launched in November 2019 that Netflix had a truly competitor in the global field. COVID-19 pandemic even catalyzed the stock price. Netflix's market value once reached 300 billion US dollars, even surpassing Disney, the master of the media industry.</p><p>But the author has always had doubts about Netflix's business model. In the early stage of development, it is inevitable for the Internet format to spend money on market share. But when Netflix already has hundreds of millions of users, and the growth rate has to slow down due to the huge base, it must make a choice between two: 1. Generate a large amount of free cash flow to prove economies of scale; 2. You can lose money, but you must continue to grow at a high speed on a high base. At present, Netflix can't do either.</p><p>As you can see from Figure 2, the global number of subscribers to Netflix's streaming media channel has increased from 38 million in the first quarter of 2013 to 220 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>Figure 2 Global subscribers to Netflix streaming channels</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91afc9fee82717b650ed9f9629ee370\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Statistica</p><p>However, the information disclosed in the latest quarterly report and performance briefing shows that Disney's subscribers are still growing by several million each quarter, but Netflix has guided that the number of subscribers will decline in the second quarter. Therefore, in the past six months, Netflix's stock price has fallen from US $700 per share to US $170 per share, and the stock price has even returned to the position it was five years ago.</p><p>Figure 3 Netflix trend chart since the end of last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618091d0fa3d53745bee0dcf54a63300\" tg-width=\"1030\" tg-height=\"743\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>We can also see from Figure 4 that although Netflix's revenue has increased sevenfold in the past 10 years, it has not been able to generate a corresponding increase in free cash flow (except for the substantial benefit due to the epidemic in 2020).</p><p>Figure 4 Changes in Netflix's revenue and free cash flow over the past 10 years</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8ad713abb9ade6a9302c99d5739e5a\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Company 10K</p><p><b>Layout Netflix on the left</b></p><p><b>The loss limit may be around 20%</b></p><p>Judging from historical experience, market sentiment always goes from one extreme to the other, and seizing large pullback/retracement to buy high-quality equity is the only way to make profits from value investment.</p><p>The current market value of Netflix is US $82 billion, with US $6 billion in cash on its books, and a total debt of US $15 billion, which means that the company's enterprise value is US $91 billion. Netflix's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) in the past year was US $19 billion, which means that based on EBITDA calculations, Netflix's valuation is less than 6xEBITDA.</p><p>However, I would also like to reiterate here that Netflix generated the most operating cash flow in the past history of only US $2.43 billion in a year, which is 3% of the current market value. Netflix's annual depreciation and amortization are as high as US $12 billion, while its capital expenditure is only US $600 million. Therefore, Netflix's EBITDA, in my opinion, is deceptive, at least for us to accurately evaluate the value of this company. Limited help.</p><p>Because a large part of Netflix's EBITDA is the amortization of content assets. If content assets are excluded, the real amortization of factory buildings, equipment and intangible assets in the traditional sense is only about US $200 million per year. In other words, Netflix's real EBITDA is US $7 billion, which is 13xEBITDA according to the current stock price. The average valuation of the media industry is about 10xEBITDA, so even today, the market still gives Netflix a premium of about 30%.</p><p>The author believes that if you buy Netflix on the left side now, the loss limit may be about 20% (Netflix's valuation returns to 10xEBITDA), but the upper bound can reach several times, so the odds are interesting. But from the perspective of capital efficiency, it is hard to say.</p><p>Although Netflix has Reed Hastings and his very good team, whether Netflix's growth is really, as the company said, due to the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the European market and COVID-19 pandemic's repeated impacts on Latin America. The negative impact, temporary setbacks, remains to be seen.</p><p>Plus, if these reasons are true, why did Disney add more than 7 million subscribers? How should investors understand the huge difference between the two in the growth rate of subscribers in the past two quarters? If Disney can almost tie Netflix in terms of subscribers in 3 years, does this mean that Netflix does not have a deep moat?</p><p><b>HBO breaks through again</b></p><p><b>Netflix's global moat is tested</b></p><p>We mentioned HBO earlier. As the earliest high-end cable TV streaming provider, it is also the producer of the series Game of Thrones. At the beginning of Netflix's management's own content, it learned from HBO and converted content costs from variable costs to fixed costs. HBO is a part of Warner Bros. Later, telecom giant AT&T acquired Warner Bros., but because of poor management, it turned HBO into a second-rate streaming platform and sold Warner Pictures to Discovery Channel last year. After Discovery Channel acquired Warner Pictures, it became Warner Discovery (trading code: WBD).</p><p>The author believes that in fact, the risk-adjusted returns explored by Warner may be higher than those of Netflix. As mentioned earlier, the main problem of HBO is that it did not make a global layout earlier. It is precisely at this point that Warner Discovery has done a particularly good job, and more than 50% of its EBITDA comes from overseas. Warner Discovery can use the channels of Discovery Channel to Warner Film and Television and HBO. In this way, the whole business model will have a huge synergy effect, and Warner can quickly realize the global layout. Therefore, this merger and acquisition is very reasonable in my opinion.</p><p>According to statistics, Warner Discovery had 96 million subscribers at the beginning of the year, making it the world's largest streaming media platform besides Netflix and Disney. The author's \"pH test paper\" is very simple. If Warner Discovery can quickly achieve global large-scale streaming media deployment and complete the direct-to-consumer transformation of Discovery Channel's old business, it will show that Netflix has built economies of scale and The moat of network effect advantages is not so unbreakable, and Netflix's premium should not exist.</p><p>But if the globalization process explored by Warner is struggling, and there are still only two leading players in the entire market, Netflix and Disney, then we can almost be certain that the global duopoly pattern even if the competition is too fierce now, with the downward adjustment of the stock prices of the two companies and shareholders' demands for investment returns, competition will ease, and Netflix's profitability should also have a larger room for a jump.</p><p>Assuming that the duopoly structure is stable (that is, Warner Discovery cannot become a \"Shu Kingdom\"), then we have reason to believe that Netflix should be able to achieve an annualized growth rate of at least 10% in the next five years, which can give a 25x P/E. Assuming that Netflix can achieve a net profit margin of 20%, corresponding to a net profit of US $6 billion, the reasonable market value should be US $150 billion, which is a market value of about US $330 per share.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1571701096748","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"flywheel\" stalled, Netflix's moat is becoming its ceiling?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"flywheel\" stalled, Netflix's moat is becoming its ceiling?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">证券市场红周刊</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-04 15:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>When the growth rate of new users has to slow down due to the huge base, Netflix must make a choice between two: 1. Generate a large amount of free cash flow and prove economies of scale; 2. You can lose money, but you must continue to grow at a high speed on a high base. At present, Netflix can't do either.</p><p>According to foreign media reports, streaming media giant NetFlix announced that it would lay off about 150 employees and some agency contractors due to slowing revenue growth. Its first-quarter financial report released at the end of April showed that its net profit in the first quarter fell by 6% year-on-year, and its new paying users decreased by 200,000. This is also the first time since 2011 that Netflix's paying users have decreased instead of increasing. Under multiple pressures, Netflix's stock price plummeted. So is there a good opportunity for Netflix to deploy on the left? The author believes that if you buy now, the loss limit may be about 20%, but if you consider the capital efficiency, it is difficult to draw a conclusion. In the future, we still need to pay attention to when the growth of its paying users will stabilize and whether the moat of global layout is solid.</p><p><b>\"Flywheel\" Stall Users First Negative Growth</b></p><p>The final equity value of any company is equal to the sum of the cash flows that can be generated in its life cycle projected to the present at an appropriate discount rate. Being a review for Netflix will be very helpful for us to understand this concept.</p><p>In the past, if you wanted to watch a movie, you usually went to a place like a library, borrowed a few boxes of DVDs for a little money, and then took them home to watch them. But because of the emergence of Netflix, DVD rental boss Blockbuster declared bankruptcy in 2011. What Netflix did in the early days was very similar to what Amazon did in the early days, making it possible to rent DVDs online and deliver them to customers' homes, thereby reducing operating costs, giving profits to consumers, and expanding market share.</p><p>Figure 1 An old Blockbuster store</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39c0e8b8f31ff8b893e95f1bebc2dbf6\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Reed Hastings, the founder of Netflix, is a visionary. He observed that with the development of cloud technology and the strengthening of computing power, videos and movies will gradually be delivered in digital form instead of entities in the future. Therefore, he chose to subvert himself and refocus on the streaming media business.</p><p>Many articles say that this is Netflix's \"second growth curve\", but the author's view is slightly different. Netflix's digital distribution of content is actually a natural extension of its original business. Because whether it is the online customer interaction interface, the collection and reuse of customer information, and the self-strengthening feedback chain of the recommendation engine, they can be directly migrated from the original business.</p><p>Although the definition of streaming media business is very simple, the deeper thing lies in what kind of business model Netflix wants to use to strengthen its competitive advantage. If it is just a channel provider of content, paying according to the convertibility of the content, such as buying a movie from Paramont, and the cost of distribution is directly proportional to the customer, then there will be no economies of scale and network effects at all. Therefore, the solution that Netflix thought of was to turn variable costs into fixed costs. For example, signing a fixed-price contract with a content provider or studio. And made a big gamble: spend $100 million to produce two seasons of \"House of Cards\" starring Kevin Spacey. The logic behind this is also very simple: since it doesn't work outward, then directly produce content inward, forcing content production to become part of the streaming media business model, making content production a fixed cost, and turning the entire economies of scale \"flywheel\" is established.</p><p>Netflix's strategy has achieved unprecedented results. In the world of the Internet, strong scale and network are the most reliable moats. In 2018, Warner's HBO, once a high-end leader in the streaming media industry, has been trapped in the United States because of its cable TV business genes. It has completely missed the opportunity of global expansion and is no longer able to compete with Netflix.</p><p>It was not until Disney Streaming was launched in November 2019 that Netflix had a truly competitor in the global field. COVID-19 pandemic even catalyzed the stock price. Netflix's market value once reached 300 billion US dollars, even surpassing Disney, the master of the media industry.</p><p>But the author has always had doubts about Netflix's business model. In the early stage of development, it is inevitable for the Internet format to spend money on market share. But when Netflix already has hundreds of millions of users, and the growth rate has to slow down due to the huge base, it must make a choice between two: 1. Generate a large amount of free cash flow to prove economies of scale; 2. You can lose money, but you must continue to grow at a high speed on a high base. At present, Netflix can't do either.</p><p>As you can see from Figure 2, the global number of subscribers to Netflix's streaming media channel has increased from 38 million in the first quarter of 2013 to 220 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>Figure 2 Global subscribers to Netflix streaming channels</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91afc9fee82717b650ed9f9629ee370\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Statistica</p><p>However, the information disclosed in the latest quarterly report and performance briefing shows that Disney's subscribers are still growing by several million each quarter, but Netflix has guided that the number of subscribers will decline in the second quarter. Therefore, in the past six months, Netflix's stock price has fallen from US $700 per share to US $170 per share, and the stock price has even returned to the position it was five years ago.</p><p>Figure 3 Netflix trend chart since the end of last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618091d0fa3d53745bee0dcf54a63300\" tg-width=\"1030\" tg-height=\"743\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>We can also see from Figure 4 that although Netflix's revenue has increased sevenfold in the past 10 years, it has not been able to generate a corresponding increase in free cash flow (except for the substantial benefit due to the epidemic in 2020).</p><p>Figure 4 Changes in Netflix's revenue and free cash flow over the past 10 years</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8ad713abb9ade6a9302c99d5739e5a\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Company 10K</p><p><b>Layout Netflix on the left</b></p><p><b>The loss limit may be around 20%</b></p><p>Judging from historical experience, market sentiment always goes from one extreme to the other, and seizing large pullback/retracement to buy high-quality equity is the only way to make profits from value investment.</p><p>The current market value of Netflix is US $82 billion, with US $6 billion in cash on its books, and a total debt of US $15 billion, which means that the company's enterprise value is US $91 billion. Netflix's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) in the past year was US $19 billion, which means that based on EBITDA calculations, Netflix's valuation is less than 6xEBITDA.</p><p>However, I would also like to reiterate here that Netflix generated the most operating cash flow in the past history of only US $2.43 billion in a year, which is 3% of the current market value. Netflix's annual depreciation and amortization are as high as US $12 billion, while its capital expenditure is only US $600 million. Therefore, Netflix's EBITDA, in my opinion, is deceptive, at least for us to accurately evaluate the value of this company. Limited help.</p><p>Because a large part of Netflix's EBITDA is the amortization of content assets. If content assets are excluded, the real amortization of factory buildings, equipment and intangible assets in the traditional sense is only about US $200 million per year. In other words, Netflix's real EBITDA is US $7 billion, which is 13xEBITDA according to the current stock price. The average valuation of the media industry is about 10xEBITDA, so even today, the market still gives Netflix a premium of about 30%.</p><p>The author believes that if you buy Netflix on the left side now, the loss limit may be about 20% (Netflix's valuation returns to 10xEBITDA), but the upper bound can reach several times, so the odds are interesting. But from the perspective of capital efficiency, it is hard to say.</p><p>Although Netflix has Reed Hastings and his very good team, whether Netflix's growth is really, as the company said, due to the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the European market and COVID-19 pandemic's repeated impacts on Latin America. The negative impact, temporary setbacks, remains to be seen.</p><p>Plus, if these reasons are true, why did Disney add more than 7 million subscribers? How should investors understand the huge difference between the two in the growth rate of subscribers in the past two quarters? If Disney can almost tie Netflix in terms of subscribers in 3 years, does this mean that Netflix does not have a deep moat?</p><p><b>HBO breaks through again</b></p><p><b>Netflix's global moat is tested</b></p><p>We mentioned HBO earlier. As the earliest high-end cable TV streaming provider, it is also the producer of the series Game of Thrones. At the beginning of Netflix's management's own content, it learned from HBO and converted content costs from variable costs to fixed costs. HBO is a part of Warner Bros. Later, telecom giant AT&T acquired Warner Bros., but because of poor management, it turned HBO into a second-rate streaming platform and sold Warner Pictures to Discovery Channel last year. After Discovery Channel acquired Warner Pictures, it became Warner Discovery (trading code: WBD).</p><p>The author believes that in fact, the risk-adjusted returns explored by Warner may be higher than those of Netflix. As mentioned earlier, the main problem of HBO is that it did not make a global layout earlier. It is precisely at this point that Warner Discovery has done a particularly good job, and more than 50% of its EBITDA comes from overseas. Warner Discovery can use the channels of Discovery Channel to Warner Film and Television and HBO. In this way, the whole business model will have a huge synergy effect, and Warner can quickly realize the global layout. Therefore, this merger and acquisition is very reasonable in my opinion.</p><p>According to statistics, Warner Discovery had 96 million subscribers at the beginning of the year, making it the world's largest streaming media platform besides Netflix and Disney. The author's \"pH test paper\" is very simple. If Warner Discovery can quickly achieve global large-scale streaming media deployment and complete the direct-to-consumer transformation of Discovery Channel's old business, it will show that Netflix has built economies of scale and The moat of network effect advantages is not so unbreakable, and Netflix's premium should not exist.</p><p>But if the globalization process explored by Warner is struggling, and there are still only two leading players in the entire market, Netflix and Disney, then we can almost be certain that the global duopoly pattern even if the competition is too fierce now, with the downward adjustment of the stock prices of the two companies and shareholders' demands for investment returns, competition will ease, and Netflix's profitability should also have a larger room for a jump.</p><p>Assuming that the duopoly structure is stable (that is, Warner Discovery cannot become a \"Shu Kingdom\"), then we have reason to believe that Netflix should be able to achieve an annualized growth rate of at least 10% in the next five years, which can give a 25x P/E. Assuming that Netflix can achieve a net profit margin of 20%, corresponding to a net profit of US $6 billion, the reasonable market value should be US $150 billion, which is a market value of about US $330 per share.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/u37Kpc-grId8paew0xCvrA\">证券市场红周刊</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2224e6b43e75f835dbd8bb6d8c4972c","relate_stocks":{"BK4566":"资本集团","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","NFLX":"奈飞","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/u37Kpc-grId8paew0xCvrA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115257762","content_text":"当新用户增速因为基数巨大而不得不放缓时，奈飞就必须做出二选一的抉择：1.产生大量的自由现金流，证明规模经济；2.可以亏钱，但必须在高基数上持续高速成长。目前看，奈飞两个都做不到。据外媒报道，由于收入增长放缓，流媒体巨头奈飞（NetFlix）宣布将解雇约150名员工以及部分代理承包商。4月底其发布的第一季度财报显示，第一季度净利润同比下降6%，新增付费用户减少20万，这也是奈飞自2011年来首次付费用户不增反降。多重压力下，奈飞股价暴跌。那当前奈飞是否出现了左侧布局良机？笔者认为，现在买入，亏损的极限可能是20%左右，但如果考虑资金效率，则不好下定论。后续仍需留意其付费用户增长何时企稳，以及全球化布局护城河是否牢固。“飞轮”失速 用户首次负增长任何一个公司其最终的股权价值，都等于其生命周期能够产生的现金流按照合适的贴现比率投射到当下的数值之和。对奈飞做一个复盘，将非常有助于我们理解这一概念。曾经，如果想要看电影，一般都是去一个类似图书馆的地方，花一点钱借几盒DVD，然后带回家去看。但因为奈飞的出现，DVD租赁老大Blockbuster在2011年宣告破产。早期奈飞做的事，和早期亚马逊做的事非常像，让线上租赁DVD并投递到客户家中成为可能，以此减少经营成本，把利润让给消费者，扩大市场份额。图1 一个老Blockbuster店奈飞的创始人里德·哈斯廷斯（Reed Hastings）是一个很有远见的人。他观察到随着云技术的发展，计算能力的加强，未来视频和电影一定会慢慢以数字化的形式去传递，而非实体。因此他选择自我颠覆，重注流媒体业务。很多文章说这是奈飞的“第二增长曲线”，笔者的观点有些许不同。奈飞走数字化分发内容，其实是再自然不过的一种原有业务的延伸。因为无论是线上客户交互界面，客户信息的搜集和再利用，以及推荐引擎的自我加强反馈链，都可以直接从原有业务迁移。虽然流媒体业务的定义很简单，但更深层的东西，在于奈飞要以怎样的商业模式去强化自己的竞争优势。如果只是一个内容的渠道商，按照内容的可变成本来支付，比如从帕拉蒙特购买一部电影，分发要支付的费用和客户成正比，那就没有规模经济和网络效应可言。因此，奈飞想到的办法是把可变成本变成固定成本。比如和内容供应商或工作室签一个固定价格的合约。并做了一把豪赌：花一亿美元制作两季由凯文·史派西（Kevin Spacey）主演的《纸牌屋》。这背后的逻辑也很简单:既然向外不行，那就向内直接把内容给制作了，强迫内容生产变成流媒体商业模式的一部分，让内容制作变成固定成本，将整个规模经济的“飞轮”建立起来。奈飞的战略取得了空前的成果，在互联网的世界里，强大的规模和网络是最可靠的护城河。2018年，曾经流媒体行业的高端翘楚，华纳旗下的HBO，因为有线电视业务基因，一直困于美国本土，已经完全错失了全球扩张的机会，再也无力和奈飞掰手腕。直到2019年迪士尼流媒体在11月份上线，奈飞才出现一个真正在全球领域能与之竞争的对手。新冠疫情更是催化了股价，奈飞的市值一度高达3000亿美元，甚至超过了传媒行业的宗主迪士尼。但笔者对奈飞的生意模式，一直是有疑惑的。在发展前期，砸钱烧市场份额，这是互联网业态的必然。但当奈飞已经有上亿的用户规模了，增速因为基数巨大而不得不放缓时，那就必须做出二选一的抉择：1.产生大量的自由现金流，证明规模经济；2.可以亏钱，但必须在高基数上持续高速成长。目前看，奈飞两个都做不到。从图2可以看到，奈飞流媒体频道的全球订阅人数从2013年一季度的3800万，增加到2022年一季度的2.2亿。图2 奈飞流媒体频道的全球订阅人数数据来源：Statistica但在最新披露的一季报以及业绩说明会透露的信息显示，迪士尼每个季度的订阅人数仍在以几百万的幅度增长，奈飞却指引二季度订阅人数将下降。因此，过去6个月，奈飞的股价从700美元/股下挫到170美元/股，股价甚至回到了5年前的位置。图3 去年年底以来奈飞走势图从图4中我们也可以看到，尽管奈飞的营收在过去10年增加了7倍，但却一直没有办法产生相应增幅的自由现金流（除了2020年因为疫情而大幅受益）。图4 过去10年奈飞营收和自由现金流变动数据来源：公司10K左侧布局奈飞亏损极限可能在20%左右历史经验来看，市场情绪总是从一个极端走到另一个极端，而抓住大幅回撤买入优质股权，正是价值投资获利的不二良方。目前奈飞的市值为820亿美元，账面有现金60亿美元，债务共计150亿美元，也就是说这个公司的企业价值为910亿美元。奈飞过去一年的EBITDA（税息折旧及摊销前利润）为190亿美元，也就是说，按照EBITDA计算，奈飞的估值才6xEBITDA不到。不过，这里也要重申提醒，奈飞过去历史上产生过最多经营现金流的一年才24.3亿美元，也就是目前市值的3%的经营现金流收益。奈飞每年的折旧摊销高达120亿美元，而资本开支才6亿美元，因此奈飞的EBITDA，在笔者看来，是有欺骗性的，至少对于我们准确对这个公司的价值进行评估的帮助有限。因为奈飞的EBITDA里面，很大一部分是对内容资产的摊销，如果剔除掉内容资产的话，每年按照传统意义的厂房、器械和无形资产的真实摊销只有2亿美元左右。也就是说，奈飞的真实EBITDA是70亿美元，按照当前股价是13xEBITDA。传媒行业的平均估值大概是10xEBITDA，所以即便如今，市场给奈飞的估值还是有大概30%的溢价。笔者认为，如果现在左侧买入奈飞，亏损的极限可能是20%左右（奈飞估值回到10xEBITDA），但上界可以达到好几倍，因此赔率是有意思的。但是资金效率角度，却不好说。尽管奈飞有里德·哈斯廷斯及他非常优秀的团队，但奈飞的成长性是不是真的如公司所说，是受俄乌战争对欧洲市场的影响，以及新冠疫情反复对拉丁美洲造成的负面影响，暂时受挫，还有待观察。另外，如果这些理由属实，为什么迪士尼增加了700多万名订阅者呢？投资者应如何理解两者在订阅人数增速上，过去两个季度巨大的差异呢？如果迪士尼能用3年的时间几乎在订阅人数上追平奈飞，这是不是说明奈飞没有很深的护城河呢？HBO再突围奈飞全球化护城河受检验我们前面提到过HBO，其作为最早的高端有线电视流媒体供应商，也是《权力的游戏》这一连续剧的制作商。奈飞的管理层做自己的内容之初，就是学习了HBO，把内容成本从可变成本，转化成为了固定成本。HBO是华纳兄弟的一部分，后来电信巨头AT&T收购了华纳兄弟，但因为经营不善，愣是把HBO做成了一个二流流媒体平台，并在去年把华纳影视卖给了探索频道。探索频道收购了华纳影视之后，变成了华纳探索（交易代码：WBD）。笔者认为，其实华纳探索的风险调整后收益，恐怕比奈飞更高。前文谈到，HBO的问题主要在于没有早一些做全球化布局。恰恰在这一点上，华纳探索做得特别好，其EBITDA超过50%都是来自于海外的。华纳探索可以把探索频道的渠道拿来给华纳影视及HBO使用，这样一来，整个商业模式会有巨大的协同效应，华纳也可以很快实现全球化布局，因此这个并购，在笔者看来是很合理的。统计数据来看，华纳探索的年初订阅人数为9600万，是除了奈飞和迪士尼之外全球最大的流媒体平台。笔者的“酸碱度测试纸”很简单，如果华纳探索能较快地实现全球规模化流媒体部署，并完成探索频道老业务的直接面向消费者的转型，那将说明，奈飞搭建的规模经济和网络效应优势的护城河，并没有那么牢不可破，奈飞的溢价也就不应存在。但如果华纳探索的全球化进程举步维艰，整个市场仍然只有奈飞和迪士尼这两个头部玩家，那我们几乎可以确定全球双寡头垄断格局即便现在竞争过于激烈，随着两个公司股价的下调及股东对投资回报的诉求，竞争将缓和，奈飞的盈利能力，应也会有一个较大的跃升空间。假设双寡头格局是稳固的（即华纳探索无法成为“蜀国”），那么我们有理由相信奈飞应能至少实现未来5年年化10%的增速，可以给一个25x的市盈率。假设奈飞能实现20%的净利润率，对应60亿美元的净利润，则合理市值应为1500亿美元，也就是330美元/股左右的市值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059869522,"gmtCreate":1654331538766,"gmtModify":1676535433008,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tf","listText":"Tf","text":"Tf","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059869522","repostId":"1133176586","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133176586","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654328043,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133176586?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 15:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Rate hike \"lost 800 yuan to himself\", and the Fed suffered a huge loss of 2.2 trillion yuan on its books!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133176586","media":"每日经济新闻","summary":"根据美联储最近披露的季报显示，截至今年一季度末，美联储持有的美债、抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）出现了3300亿美元的账面亏损（约合人民币22105亿元）。另根据相关文件，2022年一季度，持有近9万亿美","content":"<p><div>According to the quarterly report recently disclosed by the Federal Reserve, as of the end of the first quarter of this year, the US debt and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) held by the Federal Reserve had a book loss of US $330 billion (approximately RMB 2,210.5 billion). According to relevant documents, in the first quarter of 2022, the Federal Reserve, which holds nearly US $9 trillion in assets, remitted US $32.2 billion to the US Treasury Department. Bill Nelson, chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute, quoted by Reuters, said that adjusting for the Fed's asset appreciation through the end of last year, the bank...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w-IKgkWde0gp4RL4iiDXUw\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"mrjjxw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rate hike \"lost 800 yuan to himself\", and the Fed suffered a huge loss of 2.2 trillion yuan on its books!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRate hike \"lost 800 yuan to himself\", and the Fed suffered a huge loss of 2.2 trillion yuan on its books!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">每日经济新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-04 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>According to the quarterly report recently disclosed by the Federal Reserve, as of the end of the first quarter of this year, the US debt and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) held by the Federal Reserve had a book loss of US $330 billion (approximately RMB 2,210.5 billion). According to relevant documents, in the first quarter of 2022, the Federal Reserve, which holds nearly US $9 trillion in assets, remitted US $32.2 billion to the US Treasury Department. Bill Nelson, chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute, quoted by Reuters, said that adjusting for the Fed's asset appreciation through the end of last year, the bank...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w-IKgkWde0gp4RL4iiDXUw\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w-IKgkWde0gp4RL4iiDXUw\">每日经济新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w-IKgkWde0gp4RL4iiDXUw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133176586","content_text":"根据美联储最近披露的季报显示，截至今年一季度末，美联储持有的美债、抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）出现了3300亿美元的账面亏损（约合人民币22105亿元）。另根据相关文件，2022年一季度，持有近9万亿美元资产的美联储向美国财政部汇出了322亿美元的资金。路透社援引银行政策研究所（Bank Policy Institute）首席经济学家比尔·纳尔逊称，根据美联储截至去年年底的资产升值情况进行调整，该行今年一季度未实现的亏损（unrealized losses）甚至更大，达到4580亿美元。尽管美国经济正试图从新冠疫情中逐步复苏，《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，美联储不断继续购买资产的做法也受到外界批评。如今，美联储正在试图扭转其资产购买的趋势，缩减其资产负债表。需要指出的是，如果美联储通过出售其中一些资产来加快缩表过程，那么未变现亏损有可能变成实际亏损。根据美联储的一季报，按照公允价值计算，截至3月31日，美联储购买的2.77万亿美元的MBS市值已经降至2.606万亿美元。随着美联储不断加息，如今美国的抵押贷款利率不断攀升，并且随着市场利率不断上升，任何有息证券的亏损都在加剧。纽约联储在本周早些时候的一份报告中指出，由于市场预计美联储将继续加息（利率将继续上升），美联储的投资组合可能还会出现进一步的亏损。除了巨额的亏损外，美联储的一季报还透露出了一个问题：随着美联储提高短期利率，它将向银行支付更多的利息，以补偿银行在美联储的存款准备金，从而增加了开支。与此同时，随着美联储缩减资产负债表，其利息收益将下降，这或将导致美联储走向经营亏损。但纽约联储的官员在报告中称，无论如何，美联储都有能力为其操作提供资金和货币政策支持。但这可能意味着被政府官员密切关注的一项关键指将急剧下降：美联储汇入美国财政部的盈余。路透社报道称，在“量化宽松（QE）”时期，美联储汇给美国财政部的利润在去年达到了创纪录的1070亿美元，但随着美联储从QE转向如今的“量化紧缩（QT）”，其向财政部的汇款或将降至零。据悉，美联储可以通过在资产负债表上创建一个名为“递延资产”（deferred asset）的新条目来重新标记这些损失。在美联储再次出现盈余的年份，其将无需再把这些盈余交给财政部，直到它首先偿还完自身债务，再抹去这些“递延资产”。此外，有“最会炒股的央行”之称的瑞士央行也陷入巨亏漩涡之中。今年一季度，瑞士央行遭遇了历史最严重的亏损。据其披露的季度报告显示，该银行在2022年1月至3月期间，累计损失328亿瑞士法郎（人民币2294亿元)，这是该行自1907年成立以来遭遇的最严重季度亏损。报告称，市场利率上升是一季度业绩亏损的主要原因。利率上升导致贬值，总损失为251亿瑞士法郎。此外，由于利率上升以及俄乌冲突，股票和其他证券损失107亿瑞士法郎。曾任 Elliott 资产管理公司投资组合经理和瑞银债券策略师的 Meyrick Chapman 透露，年初至今，瑞士央行的股票投资回报十分糟糕，损失可能高达750亿瑞士法郎（约合人民币5246亿元）左右，大约相当于瑞士GDP的10%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059869361,"gmtCreate":1654331475053,"gmtModify":1676535432986,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Efg","listText":"Efg","text":"Efg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059869361","repostId":"1133176586","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133176586","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654328043,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133176586?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 15:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Rate hike \"lost 800 yuan to himself\", and the Fed suffered a huge loss of 2.2 trillion yuan on its books!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133176586","media":"每日经济新闻","summary":"根据美联储最近披露的季报显示，截至今年一季度末，美联储持有的美债、抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）出现了3300亿美元的账面亏损（约合人民币22105亿元）。另根据相关文件，2022年一季度，持有近9万亿美","content":"<p><div>According to the quarterly report recently disclosed by the Federal Reserve, as of the end of the first quarter of this year, the US debt and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) held by the Federal Reserve had a book loss of US $330 billion (approximately RMB 2,210.5 billion). According to relevant documents, in the first quarter of 2022, the Federal Reserve, which holds nearly US $9 trillion in assets, remitted US $32.2 billion to the US Treasury Department. Bill Nelson, chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute, quoted by Reuters, said that adjusting for the Fed's asset appreciation through the end of last year, the bank...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w-IKgkWde0gp4RL4iiDXUw\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"mrjjxw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rate hike \"lost 800 yuan to himself\", and the Fed suffered a huge loss of 2.2 trillion yuan on its books!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRate hike \"lost 800 yuan to himself\", and the Fed suffered a huge loss of 2.2 trillion yuan on its books!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">每日经济新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-04 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>According to the quarterly report recently disclosed by the Federal Reserve, as of the end of the first quarter of this year, the US debt and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) held by the Federal Reserve had a book loss of US $330 billion (approximately RMB 2,210.5 billion). According to relevant documents, in the first quarter of 2022, the Federal Reserve, which holds nearly US $9 trillion in assets, remitted US $32.2 billion to the US Treasury Department. Bill Nelson, chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute, quoted by Reuters, said that adjusting for the Fed's asset appreciation through the end of last year, the bank...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w-IKgkWde0gp4RL4iiDXUw\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w-IKgkWde0gp4RL4iiDXUw\">每日经济新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w-IKgkWde0gp4RL4iiDXUw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133176586","content_text":"根据美联储最近披露的季报显示，截至今年一季度末，美联储持有的美债、抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）出现了3300亿美元的账面亏损（约合人民币22105亿元）。另根据相关文件，2022年一季度，持有近9万亿美元资产的美联储向美国财政部汇出了322亿美元的资金。路透社援引银行政策研究所（Bank Policy Institute）首席经济学家比尔·纳尔逊称，根据美联储截至去年年底的资产升值情况进行调整，该行今年一季度未实现的亏损（unrealized losses）甚至更大，达到4580亿美元。尽管美国经济正试图从新冠疫情中逐步复苏，《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，美联储不断继续购买资产的做法也受到外界批评。如今，美联储正在试图扭转其资产购买的趋势，缩减其资产负债表。需要指出的是，如果美联储通过出售其中一些资产来加快缩表过程，那么未变现亏损有可能变成实际亏损。根据美联储的一季报，按照公允价值计算，截至3月31日，美联储购买的2.77万亿美元的MBS市值已经降至2.606万亿美元。随着美联储不断加息，如今美国的抵押贷款利率不断攀升，并且随着市场利率不断上升，任何有息证券的亏损都在加剧。纽约联储在本周早些时候的一份报告中指出，由于市场预计美联储将继续加息（利率将继续上升），美联储的投资组合可能还会出现进一步的亏损。除了巨额的亏损外，美联储的一季报还透露出了一个问题：随着美联储提高短期利率，它将向银行支付更多的利息，以补偿银行在美联储的存款准备金，从而增加了开支。与此同时，随着美联储缩减资产负债表，其利息收益将下降，这或将导致美联储走向经营亏损。但纽约联储的官员在报告中称，无论如何，美联储都有能力为其操作提供资金和货币政策支持。但这可能意味着被政府官员密切关注的一项关键指将急剧下降：美联储汇入美国财政部的盈余。路透社报道称，在“量化宽松（QE）”时期，美联储汇给美国财政部的利润在去年达到了创纪录的1070亿美元，但随着美联储从QE转向如今的“量化紧缩（QT）”，其向财政部的汇款或将降至零。据悉，美联储可以通过在资产负债表上创建一个名为“递延资产”（deferred asset）的新条目来重新标记这些损失。在美联储再次出现盈余的年份，其将无需再把这些盈余交给财政部，直到它首先偿还完自身债务，再抹去这些“递延资产”。此外，有“最会炒股的央行”之称的瑞士央行也陷入巨亏漩涡之中。今年一季度，瑞士央行遭遇了历史最严重的亏损。据其披露的季度报告显示，该银行在2022年1月至3月期间，累计损失328亿瑞士法郎（人民币2294亿元)，这是该行自1907年成立以来遭遇的最严重季度亏损。报告称，市场利率上升是一季度业绩亏损的主要原因。利率上升导致贬值，总损失为251亿瑞士法郎。此外，由于利率上升以及俄乌冲突，股票和其他证券损失107亿瑞士法郎。曾任 Elliott 资产管理公司投资组合经理和瑞银债券策略师的 Meyrick Chapman 透露，年初至今，瑞士央行的股票投资回报十分糟糕，损失可能高达750亿瑞士法郎（约合人民币5246亿元）左右，大约相当于瑞士GDP的10%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050448854,"gmtCreate":1654230550678,"gmtModify":1676535417509,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ha&nbsp;","listText":"Ha&nbsp;","text":"Ha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050448854","repostId":"1136892456","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136892456","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653874750,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136892456?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-30 09:39","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: A list of major market closure arrangements during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136892456","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"中国传统节日端午节假期临近，各主要市场休市安排如下：A股：6月3日（星期五）至6月5日（星期日）休市，6月6日（星期一）起照常开市。港股：6月3日（星期五）至6月5日（星期日）休市，6月6日（星期","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As the Dragon Boat Festival, a traditional Chinese festival, approaches, the closing arrangements of major markets are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d8a4a56f028e2f6b5375badd5f49596\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from June 3 (Friday) to June 5 (Sunday), and will open as usual from June 6 (Monday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from June 3 (Friday) to June 5 (Sunday), and will open as usual from June 6 (Monday).</p><p><b>U.S. stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The service will not be available from June 3 (Friday) to June 5 (Sunday), and will be open as usual from June 6 (Monday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The service will not be available from June 3 (Friday) to June 5 (Sunday), and will be open as usual from June 6 (Monday).</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>Dragon Boat Festival, also known as Duanyang Festival, Dragon Boat Festival, Tianzhong Festival, etc., originated from the worship of natural astronomical phenomena and evolved from worshipping dragons in ancient times. During the Dragon Boat Festival in midsummer, the seven stays of the black dragon soared into the middle of the south, and was in the most \"middle\" position of the whole year, that is, the fifth line of the Book of Changes Gan Gua said: \"The flying dragon is in the sky\". Its origin covers ancient astrological culture, humanistic philosophy and other aspects, and contains profound and rich cultural connotations. In the process of inheritance and development, a variety of folk customs are mixed into one, and the contents of festivals and customs are rich. Picking dragon boats and eating rice dumplings are the two major rituals and customs of the Dragon Boat Festival, which have been passed down in China since ancient times and have continued until now.</p><p>The Dragon Boat Festival was originally a festival founded by ancient ancestors to worship the dragon ancestors and pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits. Legend has it that Qu Yuan, a poet of Chu during the Warring States Period, committed suicide by jumping into Miluo River on May 5th. Later, people also took the Dragon Boat Festival as a festival to commemorate Qu Yuan. There are also sayings to commemorate Wu Zixu, Cao E and Jie Zitui. Generally speaking, the Dragon Boat Festival originated from the ancient ancestors who chose the auspicious day of \"flying dragon in the sky\" to worship the dragon ancestors, pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits, and injected the fashion of \"curing diseases and preventing epidemics\" in summer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ea6dbc4088c8bacb63a863e559c64b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: A list of major market closure arrangements during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: A list of major market closure arrangements during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-30 09:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As the Dragon Boat Festival, a traditional Chinese festival, approaches, the closing arrangements of major markets are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d8a4a56f028e2f6b5375badd5f49596\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from June 3 (Friday) to June 5 (Sunday), and will open as usual from June 6 (Monday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from June 3 (Friday) to June 5 (Sunday), and will open as usual from June 6 (Monday).</p><p><b>U.S. stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The service will not be available from June 3 (Friday) to June 5 (Sunday), and will be open as usual from June 6 (Monday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The service will not be available from June 3 (Friday) to June 5 (Sunday), and will be open as usual from June 6 (Monday).</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>Dragon Boat Festival, also known as Duanyang Festival, Dragon Boat Festival, Tianzhong Festival, etc., originated from the worship of natural astronomical phenomena and evolved from worshipping dragons in ancient times. During the Dragon Boat Festival in midsummer, the seven stays of the black dragon soared into the middle of the south, and was in the most \"middle\" position of the whole year, that is, the fifth line of the Book of Changes Gan Gua said: \"The flying dragon is in the sky\". Its origin covers ancient astrological culture, humanistic philosophy and other aspects, and contains profound and rich cultural connotations. In the process of inheritance and development, a variety of folk customs are mixed into one, and the contents of festivals and customs are rich. Picking dragon boats and eating rice dumplings are the two major rituals and customs of the Dragon Boat Festival, which have been passed down in China since ancient times and have continued until now.</p><p>The Dragon Boat Festival was originally a festival founded by ancient ancestors to worship the dragon ancestors and pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits. Legend has it that Qu Yuan, a poet of Chu during the Warring States Period, committed suicide by jumping into Miluo River on May 5th. Later, people also took the Dragon Boat Festival as a festival to commemorate Qu Yuan. There are also sayings to commemorate Wu Zixu, Cao E and Jie Zitui. Generally speaking, the Dragon Boat Festival originated from the ancient ancestors who chose the auspicious day of \"flying dragon in the sky\" to worship the dragon ancestors, pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits, and injected the fashion of \"curing diseases and preventing epidemics\" in summer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ea6dbc4088c8bacb63a863e559c64b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21a5622e4d7ad647ba048e585d4a4133","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSCEI":"国企指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136892456","content_text":"中国传统节日端午节假期临近，各主要市场休市安排如下：A股：6月3日（星期五）至6月5日（星期日）休市，6月6日（星期一）起照常开市。港股：6月3日（星期五）至6月5日（星期日）休市，6月6日（星期一）起照常开市。美股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。沪股通、深股通：6月3日（星期五）至6月5日（星期日）不提供服务，6月6日（星期一）起照常开通。港股通：6月3日（星期五）至6月5日（星期日）不提供服务，6月6日（星期一）起照常开通。背景介绍：端午节，又称端阳节、龙舟节、天中节等，源于自然天象崇拜，由上古时代祭龙演变而来。仲夏端午，苍龙七宿飞升于正南中天，处于全年最“正中”之位，即如《易经·乾卦》第五爻的爻辞曰：“飞龙在天”。其起源涵盖了古老星象文化、人文哲学等方面内容，蕴含着深邃丰厚的文化内涵，在传承发展中杂糅了多种民俗为一体，节俗内容丰富。扒龙舟与食粽是端午节的两大礼俗，这两大礼俗在中国自古传承，至今不辍。端午节，本是上古先民创立用于拜祭龙祖、祈福辟邪的节日。因传说战国时期的楚国诗人屈原在五月五日跳汨罗江自尽，后来人们亦将端午节作为纪念屈原的节日；也有纪念伍子胥、曹娥及介子推等说法。总的来说，端午节起源于上古先民择“飞龙在天”吉日拜祭龙祖、祈福辟邪，注入夏季时令“祛病防疫\"风尚。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024791819,"gmtCreate":1653920305832,"gmtModify":1676535362651,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gah","listText":"Gah","text":"Gah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024791819","repostId":"617096729","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":617096729,"gmtCreate":1653918533000,"gmtModify":1676533165479,"author":{"id":"3585895914412071","authorId":"3585895914412071","name":"品玩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b172a08e9f14d6bb2f35c135c87f473e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585895914412071","idStr":"3585895914412071"},"themes":[],"title":"罵完還在買 寶可夢公司2021財年銷售額增長70.15%","htmlText":"寶可夢公司今天公開了2021-2022財年的財報，財報顯示，寶可夢公司該財年銷售額2042.09億日元，同比增長70.15%，營業利潤598.6億日元，同比增長115.29%，其他收入也均有大幅增長。 圖源：源於網絡 作爲寶可夢品牌的運營公司，寶可夢公司負責授權與販售寶可夢繫列的相關商品，如寶可夢遊戲軟件、集換式卡牌遊戲、動畫與電影等等。而在該財年內，寶可夢公司並沒有推出太多新的產品，主要還是以寶可夢IP的運營爲主。 遊戲業務方面，該財年寶可夢公司推出了《寶可夢 晶燦鑽石／明亮珍珠》和《寶可夢傳說 阿爾宙斯》兩款主系列遊戲作品，其中自公佈之後一直被玩家們不夠看好的《寶可夢 晶燦鑽石／明亮珍珠》銷量已超過&nbsp;1397萬套，而實驗性的《寶可夢傳說 阿爾宙斯》的全球銷量也已突破650萬份。分支作品系列則推出了《New寶可夢隨樂拍》，不過這款遊戲並沒有引起太多的討論，此前公佈銷量僅達到240萬。 圖源：寶可夢百科 手遊方面，寶可夢公司財報期間推出了由騰訊製作的《寶可夢大集結》，並在手機端和NS端開放運營。截至今年4月，該遊戲的下載量已經超過了7000萬，而持續運營的《寶可夢 GO》和《Pokemon Master EX》也均已進入平穩運營期。 動畫方面，目前正在播放的《寶可夢 旅途》仍然受到劇情影響，播放量大打折扣。除了2021年9月3日播出的《月亮與太陽，小春與春日 》以2.4%的收視率進入日本TV動畫收視前十之外，其他劇集並沒有引發關注。而動畫電影方面，去年上映的《寶可夢：皮卡丘和可可的冒險》獲得了不錯的反響，僅在大陸地區票房便已超過5000萬。對於寶可夢公司來說，商品授權一直都是公司的主要收入。根據此前的統計，在寶可夢迄今爲止1090億美元的收入中，有828億美元來自衍生授權。 圖源：肯德基 相比較已經結束的上一財年，本財年寶可夢公司擁有更多值得期待的產品，除了主系列","listText":"寶可夢公司今天公開了2021-2022財年的財報，財報顯示，寶可夢公司該財年銷售額2042.09億日元，同比增長70.15%，營業利潤598.6億日元，同比增長115.29%，其他收入也均有大幅增長。 圖源：源於網絡 作爲寶可夢品牌的運營公司，寶可夢公司負責授權與販售寶可夢繫列的相關商品，如寶可夢遊戲軟件、集換式卡牌遊戲、動畫與電影等等。而在該財年內，寶可夢公司並沒有推出太多新的產品，主要還是以寶可夢IP的運營爲主。 遊戲業務方面，該財年寶可夢公司推出了《寶可夢 晶燦鑽石／明亮珍珠》和《寶可夢傳說 阿爾宙斯》兩款主系列遊戲作品，其中自公佈之後一直被玩家們不夠看好的《寶可夢 晶燦鑽石／明亮珍珠》銷量已超過&nbsp;1397萬套，而實驗性的《寶可夢傳說 阿爾宙斯》的全球銷量也已突破650萬份。分支作品系列則推出了《New寶可夢隨樂拍》，不過這款遊戲並沒有引起太多的討論，此前公佈銷量僅達到240萬。 圖源：寶可夢百科 手遊方面，寶可夢公司財報期間推出了由騰訊製作的《寶可夢大集結》，並在手機端和NS端開放運營。截至今年4月，該遊戲的下載量已經超過了7000萬，而持續運營的《寶可夢 GO》和《Pokemon Master EX》也均已進入平穩運營期。 動畫方面，目前正在播放的《寶可夢 旅途》仍然受到劇情影響，播放量大打折扣。除了2021年9月3日播出的《月亮與太陽，小春與春日 》以2.4%的收視率進入日本TV動畫收視前十之外，其他劇集並沒有引發關注。而動畫電影方面，去年上映的《寶可夢：皮卡丘和可可的冒險》獲得了不錯的反響，僅在大陸地區票房便已超過5000萬。對於寶可夢公司來說，商品授權一直都是公司的主要收入。根據此前的統計，在寶可夢迄今爲止1090億美元的收入中，有828億美元來自衍生授權。 圖源：肯德基 相比較已經結束的上一財年，本財年寶可夢公司擁有更多值得期待的產品，除了主系列","text":"寶可夢公司今天公開了2021-2022財年的財報，財報顯示，寶可夢公司該財年銷售額2042.09億日元，同比增長70.15%，營業利潤598.6億日元，同比增長115.29%，其他收入也均有大幅增長。 圖源：源於網絡 作爲寶可夢品牌的運營公司，寶可夢公司負責授權與販售寶可夢繫列的相關商品，如寶可夢遊戲軟件、集換式卡牌遊戲、動畫與電影等等。而在該財年內，寶可夢公司並沒有推出太多新的產品，主要還是以寶可夢IP的運營爲主。 遊戲業務方面，該財年寶可夢公司推出了《寶可夢 晶燦鑽石／明亮珍珠》和《寶可夢傳說 阿爾宙斯》兩款主系列遊戲作品，其中自公佈之後一直被玩家們不夠看好的《寶可夢 晶燦鑽石／明亮珍珠》銷量已超過 1397萬套，而實驗性的《寶可夢傳說 阿爾宙斯》的全球銷量也已突破650萬份。分支作品系列則推出了《New寶可夢隨樂拍》，不過這款遊戲並沒有引起太多的討論，此前公佈銷量僅達到240萬。 圖源：寶可夢百科 手遊方面，寶可夢公司財報期間推出了由騰訊製作的《寶可夢大集結》，並在手機端和NS端開放運營。截至今年4月，該遊戲的下載量已經超過了7000萬，而持續運營的《寶可夢 GO》和《Pokemon Master EX》也均已進入平穩運營期。 動畫方面，目前正在播放的《寶可夢 旅途》仍然受到劇情影響，播放量大打折扣。除了2021年9月3日播出的《月亮與太陽，小春與春日 》以2.4%的收視率進入日本TV動畫收視前十之外，其他劇集並沒有引發關注。而動畫電影方面，去年上映的《寶可夢：皮卡丘和可可的冒險》獲得了不錯的反響，僅在大陸地區票房便已超過5000萬。對於寶可夢公司來說，商品授權一直都是公司的主要收入。根據此前的統計，在寶可夢迄今爲止1090億美元的收入中，有828億美元來自衍生授權。 圖源：肯德基 相比較已經結束的上一財年，本財年寶可夢公司擁有更多值得期待的產品，除了主系列","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/617096729","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026949220,"gmtCreate":1653317080860,"gmtModify":1676535259443,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026949220","repostId":"614936799","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":614936799,"gmtCreate":1653316434511,"gmtModify":1676533138936,"author":{"id":"3472102947790189","authorId":"3472102947790189","name":"美股在线","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ba8418d52d20feaad4ba56bd8f4d1b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3472102947790189","idStr":"3472102947790189"},"themes":[],"title":"法國巴黎銀行加盟摩根大通Onyx數字資產網絡","htmlText":"IFTNews 國際財經訊：法國巴黎銀行加入了Onyx數字資產網絡。Onyx數字資產網絡是美國投資銀行巨頭摩根大通(NYSE: JPM)推出的一個平臺，旨在幫助金融服務提供商在不動用自身現金儲備的情況下交換不同種類的有價值資產。據《金融時報》報道，法國巴黎銀行現在可以在固定收益市場進行短期交易，攜手利用區塊鏈技術在超過 12萬億美元的市場中利用獨特的可能性。法國巴黎銀行現在擁有對 Onyx數字資產平臺的訪問權限，現在將允許這家法國機構在幾個小時內借出美國政府債券，而這些債券不會離開其資產負債表。回購或“回購”市場是一個非常重要的市場，因爲它有助於政府執行其貨幣政策，是整個金融服務提供商的一個重要收入來源。除了作爲政府經濟控制的一個渠道外，銀行還可以借入爲期幾天的優質資產，用於衍生品交易或其他印鈔業務。固定資產市場代表着區塊鏈技術在金融世界獲得深入表達的方式之一。除了讓客戶直接持有數字貨幣作爲投資外，銀行一直在尋找多種方式部署區塊鏈功能。自摩根大通部署Onyx數字資產平臺以來，迄今爲止已經進行了總價值3000億美元的交易，這一平臺爲相關機構提供了價值。然而，摩根大通對區塊鏈代幣化的正面利用與傑米•戴蒙的觀點相左。傑米曾表示，比特幣(BTC)和其他區塊鏈領域的旗艦資產不是他的菜。雖然Onyx數字資產平臺是新的，但它正在逐步獲得目前由美國政府主導的回購市場的公平市場份額，這在一定程度上要感謝使用它的金融巨頭，包括但不限於高盛集團(NYSE: GS)。摩根大通(JPMorgan)在追求將金融世界的關鍵領域代幣化方面更爲雄心勃勃。法國巴黎銀行全球市場首席運營官兼工程主管喬•博諾表示:“這不僅僅是對概念工作的證明，我們認爲這是我們努力的一部分，隨着市場的發展，我們將把這項技術應用於整個交易和運營生命週期。”摩根大通Onyx數字資產部門負責人Tyrone Lobban證實，除了回購市場，","listText":"IFTNews 國際財經訊：法國巴黎銀行加入了Onyx數字資產網絡。Onyx數字資產網絡是美國投資銀行巨頭摩根大通(NYSE: JPM)推出的一個平臺，旨在幫助金融服務提供商在不動用自身現金儲備的情況下交換不同種類的有價值資產。據《金融時報》報道，法國巴黎銀行現在可以在固定收益市場進行短期交易，攜手利用區塊鏈技術在超過 12萬億美元的市場中利用獨特的可能性。法國巴黎銀行現在擁有對 Onyx數字資產平臺的訪問權限，現在將允許這家法國機構在幾個小時內借出美國政府債券，而這些債券不會離開其資產負債表。回購或“回購”市場是一個非常重要的市場，因爲它有助於政府執行其貨幣政策，是整個金融服務提供商的一個重要收入來源。除了作爲政府經濟控制的一個渠道外，銀行還可以借入爲期幾天的優質資產，用於衍生品交易或其他印鈔業務。固定資產市場代表着區塊鏈技術在金融世界獲得深入表達的方式之一。除了讓客戶直接持有數字貨幣作爲投資外，銀行一直在尋找多種方式部署區塊鏈功能。自摩根大通部署Onyx數字資產平臺以來，迄今爲止已經進行了總價值3000億美元的交易，這一平臺爲相關機構提供了價值。然而，摩根大通對區塊鏈代幣化的正面利用與傑米•戴蒙的觀點相左。傑米曾表示，比特幣(BTC)和其他區塊鏈領域的旗艦資產不是他的菜。雖然Onyx數字資產平臺是新的，但它正在逐步獲得目前由美國政府主導的回購市場的公平市場份額，這在一定程度上要感謝使用它的金融巨頭，包括但不限於高盛集團(NYSE: GS)。摩根大通(JPMorgan)在追求將金融世界的關鍵領域代幣化方面更爲雄心勃勃。法國巴黎銀行全球市場首席運營官兼工程主管喬•博諾表示:“這不僅僅是對概念工作的證明，我們認爲這是我們努力的一部分，隨着市場的發展，我們將把這項技術應用於整個交易和運營生命週期。”摩根大通Onyx數字資產部門負責人Tyrone Lobban證實，除了回購市場，","text":"IFTNews 國際財經訊：法國巴黎銀行加入了Onyx數字資產網絡。Onyx數字資產網絡是美國投資銀行巨頭摩根大通(NYSE: JPM)推出的一個平臺，旨在幫助金融服務提供商在不動用自身現金儲備的情況下交換不同種類的有價值資產。據《金融時報》報道，法國巴黎銀行現在可以在固定收益市場進行短期交易，攜手利用區塊鏈技術在超過 12萬億美元的市場中利用獨特的可能性。法國巴黎銀行現在擁有對 Onyx數字資產平臺的訪問權限，現在將允許這家法國機構在幾個小時內借出美國政府債券，而這些債券不會離開其資產負債表。回購或“回購”市場是一個非常重要的市場，因爲它有助於政府執行其貨幣政策，是整個金融服務提供商的一個重要收入來源。除了作爲政府經濟控制的一個渠道外，銀行還可以借入爲期幾天的優質資產，用於衍生品交易或其他印鈔業務。固定資產市場代表着區塊鏈技術在金融世界獲得深入表達的方式之一。除了讓客戶直接持有數字貨幣作爲投資外，銀行一直在尋找多種方式部署區塊鏈功能。自摩根大通部署Onyx數字資產平臺以來，迄今爲止已經進行了總價值3000億美元的交易，這一平臺爲相關機構提供了價值。然而，摩根大通對區塊鏈代幣化的正面利用與傑米•戴蒙的觀點相左。傑米曾表示，比特幣(BTC)和其他區塊鏈領域的旗艦資產不是他的菜。雖然Onyx數字資產平臺是新的，但它正在逐步獲得目前由美國政府主導的回購市場的公平市場份額，這在一定程度上要感謝使用它的金融巨頭，包括但不限於高盛集團(NYSE: GS)。摩根大通(JPMorgan)在追求將金融世界的關鍵領域代幣化方面更爲雄心勃勃。法國巴黎銀行全球市場首席運營官兼工程主管喬•博諾表示:“這不僅僅是對概念工作的證明，我們認爲這是我們努力的一部分，隨着市場的發展，我們將把這項技術應用於整個交易和運營生命週期。”摩根大通Onyx數字資產部門負責人Tyrone Lobban證實，除了回購市場，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/720d13616832f02817bef376ee058f1e","width":"531","height":"339"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614936799","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026940590,"gmtCreate":1653316973210,"gmtModify":1676535259417,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hj","listText":"Hj","text":"Hj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026940590","repostId":"1179870947","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028645815,"gmtCreate":1653224040837,"gmtModify":1676535242386,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"q","listText":"q","text":"q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028645815","repostId":"1168811044","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028645378,"gmtCreate":1653224026294,"gmtModify":1676535242394,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ss","listText":"ss","text":"ss","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028645378","repostId":"1116468133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116468133","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653219533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116468133?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-22 19:38","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Is 40 times PE expensive? Duan Yongping talks about Maotai valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116468133","media":"ETF进化论","summary":"两个月前，贵州茅台股价在1600元左右。从历史高点2608元下来，浓眉大眼的贵州茅台回撤了近40%。茅台的忠实粉丝——段永平，说最近又买了点贵州茅台，并称和大家看到的任何消息无关，甚至和股价也没有关系","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Two months ago,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>The stock price is around 1,600 yuan. From the historical high of 2,608 yuan, Kweichow Moutai, which has thick eyebrows and big eyes, has a pullback/retracement of nearly 40%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde074342727ebdc5beca70adda0a6e8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping, a loyal fan of Moutai, said that he recently bought some Kweichow Moutai, and said that he had nothing to do with any news you saw, or even the stock price, but just had a little extra cash. I always feel that from the perspective of 10 years, holding Maotai is a little better than holding cash in the bank.</p><p><b>1. Duan Yongping talks about Maotai valuation</b></p><p>Who is Duan Yongping?</p><p>Born as an industrialist, he once founded Xiaobawang and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">Backgammon</a>Two well-known brands, four disciples: OPPO founder Chen Mingyong, VIVO founder Shen Wei, BBK CEO Jin Zhijiang and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Huang Zheng, the founder of, has a strong lineup.</p><p>Duan Yongping's experience is quite legendary. He has always been known as the \"invisible rich man\" and is known as the \"Buffett of China\". He is indeed the first Chinese to have lunch with the stock god.</p><p>In 2006, Duan Yongping took the opportunity to have lunch with Buffett for $620,000 and became friends with Buffett.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f85dfb30830b51ec17c766c0e8791f0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Made a hundred times, increased his holdings of Moutai in the plasticizer incident, and invested earlier than Buffett<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>。</p><p><b>What does Duan Yongping think of Maotai?</b></p><p>Moutai fell by more than 30%, and Duan Yongping was buying. He gave 3 reasons for buying: From the perspective of 1.10 years or longer, I have not found any A-share company better than Moutai; 2. It's a little better to hold Maotai than to hold cash in the bank; 3. Holding Moutai from a 10-year perspective has a high probability of outperforming inflation.</p><p><b>Duan Yongping has stated many times that holding Moutai from a 10-year perspective has a high probability of outperforming inflation.</b></p><p>In the past two years, people have been very anxious about how to resist inflation. Buffett has given his own unique insights on how to choose companies for inflation.</p><p><b>Buffett said that when inflation breaks out, the characteristics of good companies are:</b></p><p>First, the price of products can increase. When the global price of raw materials soared in 2010, Buffett said that pricing power is the key to the success or defeat of enterprises. Consumers will still buy after the price increase. Usually, only enterprises with monopoly brands or other intangible assets can do it. Such enterprises are strong enough to pass on the cost of inflation through price increases.</p><p>Second, low capital expenditure. Because of asset-heavy companies, high inflation may lead to higher capital expenditures, erosion of profits, and even negative cash flows.</p><p>Moutai products can increase in price and have low capital expenditures. It is a good company. These have already reached a market consensus, but the purchase price is controversial. Kweichow Moutai's rolling P/E is 40 times, and dynamic P/E is also 30 times.<b>Some investors asked Duan Yongping: What do you think of Maotai, which has a dynamic P/E of 30 times?</b></p><p>Duan Yongping replied:</p><p>It depends on what you think of 30 times P/E buying a company with an annual profit growth rate of 10% for 30 years.</p><p>For companies with steady growth, this is almost a simple arithmetic problem. With an annual growth rate of 10%, assuming that the profit before investment is 1, 30 times PE means investing 30, the total return in the 10th year is 17.5, and the 20th year is 63 (if I calculate correctly).</p><p>Moreover, Moutai's average growth of 10% is likely to be underestimated. If you have a sum of cash and have no plan to use it for a long time, where do you feel most comfortable investing it? Everyone's opportunity cost is different, so you can figure it out yourself.</p><p><b>Having said that, the market doesn't seem to buy it. Since the beginning of this year, the market has been generally pessimistic about liquor and even the entire consumer industry.</b></p><p><b>2. The market is generally pessimistic about the consumer industry</b></p><p>Since 2022, the epidemic situation has repeated in some areas, and gatherings have decreased a lot. It is expected that the market liquor will be greatly affected. Liquor has no shelf life, but the market is generally worried about the inventory cycle.</p><p>Some netizens said that they surveyed some liquor distributors in Guangdong and found that the sales of some varieties dropped by 20% from April to May.</p><p>Tracking alcohol this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>Generally fell more.</p><p>The Liquor ETF (512690) tracks the CSI Liquor Index (399987). In the past 17 years, the annualized return of the CSI Liquor Index has been as high as 25.33%.</p><p>Liquor ETF (512690) has also been an ETF with a strong trend in the past. Its heavyweight stocks are Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO., LTD and Shanxi Fenjiu. The highest pullback/retracement this year exceeds 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08201fbac3ec198943f6a5b5b29d5654\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"875\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b2d7c2100edcada3f02682a113a389\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(The contents of this article are objective data and information lists, for reference only, and do not constitute any investment advice)</p><p>The food and beverage ETF (515170) listed on December 30, 2020 is also falling, with awkward stocks Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600887\">Yili shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000568\">Luzhou Old Cellar</a>, Shanxi Fenjiu and Haitian Flavor Industry, the top ten weighted liquors account for half of the country, and the highest pullback/retracement is 35%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35dc438bb05f9112187492ebe1336b0e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"895\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f1be23642d7f15226909d62d2b0c327\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>As we all know, food and beverage has always been the birthplace of bull stocks, and the food and beverage index has performed well in the past 20 years. However, from the perspective of the food and beverage industry, the birthplace of big bull stocks in the global market, bull stocks are not only wine, but also many big food companies.</b></p><p><b>Judging from the market value of listed liquor and spirits companies in the world, the market value of Chinese liquor companies is relatively large. At present, China's liquor ranks first in the world.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38cf3e626cf41976258d8c52b4edf2f7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other sub-sectors such as food, there are no world giants.</p><p>China is one of the world's largest consumer markets, with a population of 1.4 billion. In addition to the liquor industry, other related<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>For the segmentation related to food, clothing, housing and transportation, the probability of world-class enterprises emerging in the future is naturally not small.</p><p>This also tests the weight arrangement of index funds by major institutions. If the ratio can be relatively balanced, in China's huge consumer market, I believe ETFs in this long-term bull track are still worth looking forward to.</p><p>Compared with wine ETFs and food and beverage ETFs, automobile ETFs have been relatively strong recently because they have benefited from the stimulation of a new round of cars going to the countryside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca9545609721d60ce521be2f587c907a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Consumer coupons promote consumption</b></p><p>Not long ago, at the Tsinghua PBC Chief Economist Forum, the famous economist Li<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Proposed:</p><p>1. The effect of promoting consumption is better than that of infrastructure investment. Issuing coupons can more directly improve residents' spending power and desire. 2. The contribution of domestic residents' disposable income to GDP is far lower than the global average.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a95ee78f48294f44cb1a2621fe03a07\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>(China has 2021 data, Thailand has 2019 data, and other countries have 2020 data) At the same time, the leverage ratio level of domestic government departments is only about one-third of that of the United States and one-sixth of that of Japan. Therefore, issuing coupons by increasing fiscal expenditure should have a sufficient margin of safety. Issuing consumer vouchers can improve the income situation of residents in the short term, especially during the epidemic. Let the masses consume, dare to consume and be willing to consume. If consumer coupons are used to stimulate consumption, can the market's pessimism about the consumer industry change? Can the consumer industry usher in a second spring?</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1653219549182","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is 40 times PE expensive? Duan Yongping talks about Maotai valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs 40 times PE expensive? Duan Yongping talks about Maotai valuation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">ETF进化论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-22 19:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Two months ago,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>The stock price is around 1,600 yuan. From the historical high of 2,608 yuan, Kweichow Moutai, which has thick eyebrows and big eyes, has a pullback/retracement of nearly 40%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde074342727ebdc5beca70adda0a6e8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping, a loyal fan of Moutai, said that he recently bought some Kweichow Moutai, and said that he had nothing to do with any news you saw, or even the stock price, but just had a little extra cash. I always feel that from the perspective of 10 years, holding Maotai is a little better than holding cash in the bank.</p><p><b>1. Duan Yongping talks about Maotai valuation</b></p><p>Who is Duan Yongping?</p><p>Born as an industrialist, he once founded Xiaobawang and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">Backgammon</a>Two well-known brands, four disciples: OPPO founder Chen Mingyong, VIVO founder Shen Wei, BBK CEO Jin Zhijiang and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Huang Zheng, the founder of, has a strong lineup.</p><p>Duan Yongping's experience is quite legendary. He has always been known as the \"invisible rich man\" and is known as the \"Buffett of China\". He is indeed the first Chinese to have lunch with the stock god.</p><p>In 2006, Duan Yongping took the opportunity to have lunch with Buffett for $620,000 and became friends with Buffett.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f85dfb30830b51ec17c766c0e8791f0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Made a hundred times, increased his holdings of Moutai in the plasticizer incident, and invested earlier than Buffett<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>。</p><p><b>What does Duan Yongping think of Maotai?</b></p><p>Moutai fell by more than 30%, and Duan Yongping was buying. He gave 3 reasons for buying: From the perspective of 1.10 years or longer, I have not found any A-share company better than Moutai; 2. It's a little better to hold Maotai than to hold cash in the bank; 3. Holding Moutai from a 10-year perspective has a high probability of outperforming inflation.</p><p><b>Duan Yongping has stated many times that holding Moutai from a 10-year perspective has a high probability of outperforming inflation.</b></p><p>In the past two years, people have been very anxious about how to resist inflation. Buffett has given his own unique insights on how to choose companies for inflation.</p><p><b>Buffett said that when inflation breaks out, the characteristics of good companies are:</b></p><p>First, the price of products can increase. When the global price of raw materials soared in 2010, Buffett said that pricing power is the key to the success or defeat of enterprises. Consumers will still buy after the price increase. Usually, only enterprises with monopoly brands or other intangible assets can do it. Such enterprises are strong enough to pass on the cost of inflation through price increases.</p><p>Second, low capital expenditure. Because of asset-heavy companies, high inflation may lead to higher capital expenditures, erosion of profits, and even negative cash flows.</p><p>Moutai products can increase in price and have low capital expenditures. It is a good company. These have already reached a market consensus, but the purchase price is controversial. Kweichow Moutai's rolling P/E is 40 times, and dynamic P/E is also 30 times.<b>Some investors asked Duan Yongping: What do you think of Maotai, which has a dynamic P/E of 30 times?</b></p><p>Duan Yongping replied:</p><p>It depends on what you think of 30 times P/E buying a company with an annual profit growth rate of 10% for 30 years.</p><p>For companies with steady growth, this is almost a simple arithmetic problem. With an annual growth rate of 10%, assuming that the profit before investment is 1, 30 times PE means investing 30, the total return in the 10th year is 17.5, and the 20th year is 63 (if I calculate correctly).</p><p>Moreover, Moutai's average growth of 10% is likely to be underestimated. If you have a sum of cash and have no plan to use it for a long time, where do you feel most comfortable investing it? Everyone's opportunity cost is different, so you can figure it out yourself.</p><p><b>Having said that, the market doesn't seem to buy it. Since the beginning of this year, the market has been generally pessimistic about liquor and even the entire consumer industry.</b></p><p><b>2. The market is generally pessimistic about the consumer industry</b></p><p>Since 2022, the epidemic situation has repeated in some areas, and gatherings have decreased a lot. It is expected that the market liquor will be greatly affected. Liquor has no shelf life, but the market is generally worried about the inventory cycle.</p><p>Some netizens said that they surveyed some liquor distributors in Guangdong and found that the sales of some varieties dropped by 20% from April to May.</p><p>Tracking alcohol this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>Generally fell more.</p><p>The Liquor ETF (512690) tracks the CSI Liquor Index (399987). In the past 17 years, the annualized return of the CSI Liquor Index has been as high as 25.33%.</p><p>Liquor ETF (512690) has also been an ETF with a strong trend in the past. Its heavyweight stocks are Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO., LTD and Shanxi Fenjiu. The highest pullback/retracement this year exceeds 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08201fbac3ec198943f6a5b5b29d5654\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"875\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b2d7c2100edcada3f02682a113a389\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(The contents of this article are objective data and information lists, for reference only, and do not constitute any investment advice)</p><p>The food and beverage ETF (515170) listed on December 30, 2020 is also falling, with awkward stocks Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600887\">Yili shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000568\">Luzhou Old Cellar</a>, Shanxi Fenjiu and Haitian Flavor Industry, the top ten weighted liquors account for half of the country, and the highest pullback/retracement is 35%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35dc438bb05f9112187492ebe1336b0e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"895\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f1be23642d7f15226909d62d2b0c327\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>As we all know, food and beverage has always been the birthplace of bull stocks, and the food and beverage index has performed well in the past 20 years. However, from the perspective of the food and beverage industry, the birthplace of big bull stocks in the global market, bull stocks are not only wine, but also many big food companies.</b></p><p><b>Judging from the market value of listed liquor and spirits companies in the world, the market value of Chinese liquor companies is relatively large. At present, China's liquor ranks first in the world.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38cf3e626cf41976258d8c52b4edf2f7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other sub-sectors such as food, there are no world giants.</p><p>China is one of the world's largest consumer markets, with a population of 1.4 billion. In addition to the liquor industry, other related<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>For the segmentation related to food, clothing, housing and transportation, the probability of world-class enterprises emerging in the future is naturally not small.</p><p>This also tests the weight arrangement of index funds by major institutions. If the ratio can be relatively balanced, in China's huge consumer market, I believe ETFs in this long-term bull track are still worth looking forward to.</p><p>Compared with wine ETFs and food and beverage ETFs, automobile ETFs have been relatively strong recently because they have benefited from the stimulation of a new round of cars going to the countryside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca9545609721d60ce521be2f587c907a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Consumer coupons promote consumption</b></p><p>Not long ago, at the Tsinghua PBC Chief Economist Forum, the famous economist Li<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Proposed:</p><p>1. The effect of promoting consumption is better than that of infrastructure investment. Issuing coupons can more directly improve residents' spending power and desire. 2. The contribution of domestic residents' disposable income to GDP is far lower than the global average.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a95ee78f48294f44cb1a2621fe03a07\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>(China has 2021 data, Thailand has 2019 data, and other countries have 2020 data) At the same time, the leverage ratio level of domestic government departments is only about one-third of that of the United States and one-sixth of that of Japan. Therefore, issuing coupons by increasing fiscal expenditure should have a sufficient margin of safety. Issuing consumer vouchers can improve the income situation of residents in the short term, especially during the epidemic. Let the masses consume, dare to consume and be willing to consume. If consumer coupons are used to stimulate consumption, can the market's pessimism about the consumer industry change? Can the consumer industry usher in a second spring?</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/65cy5ceS8FGT4xUmdDi2jQ\">ETF进化论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba16b4f88c90908701f4ff26fee613c","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/65cy5ceS8FGT4xUmdDi2jQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116468133","content_text":"两个月前，贵州茅台股价在1600元左右。从历史高点2608元下来，浓眉大眼的贵州茅台回撤了近40%。茅台的忠实粉丝——段永平，说最近又买了点贵州茅台，并称和大家看到的任何消息无关，甚至和股价也没有关系，只是正好有点多余现金。总觉得从看10年的角度，拿着茅台比拿着现金存在银行要好一点点。1、段永平谈茅台估值段永平何许人也？实业家出身，曾以创立小霸王和步步高两个知名品牌，四大门徒：OPPO创始人陈明永、VIVO创始人沈炜、步步高CEO金志江和拼多多的创始人黄峥，阵容强大。段永平的经历颇为传奇，在坊间一直被誉为“隐形富豪”，素有“中国巴菲特”之称，而他的确是首位与股神共进午餐的华人。2006年，段永平以62万美元的价格，拍下和巴菲特共进午餐机会，与巴菲特成为朋友。段永平在网易上赚了百倍，在塑化剂事件中大举增持茅台，比巴菲特更早投资了苹果。段永平是怎么看茅台的？茅台下跌超30%，段永平在买入，他给出了3个买入理由：1.10年或更久的角度看，我没发现任何A股公司比茅台好；2.拿着茅台比拿着现金存在银行要好一点点；3.以10年的角度持有茅台，大概率可以跑赢通胀。段永平多次表示，以10年的角度持有茅台，大概率可以跑赢通胀。近两年人们都很焦虑要如何抵抗通胀，巴菲特关于通胀如何选公司给出过自己独到的见解。巴菲特说，通胀大爆发时，好企业特征是：第一，产品能够涨价。2010年全球原材料价格大涨时，巴菲特说定价权就是企业胜负的关键，涨价后消费者还会购买，通常具有垄断品牌，或有其他无形资产的企业才有办法办到，这类企业足够强势，可以通过涨价将通胀成本转嫁出去。第二，低资本支出。因为重资产企业，高通胀可能导致资本支出更高，利润被侵蚀，甚至现金流转负。茅台产品能涨价、资本支出低，是好公司，这些早已达成市场共识，但在买入价格上争议很大。贵州茅台滚动市盈率40倍，动态市盈率也有30倍。有投资者问段永平：如何看待动态市盈率30倍的茅台？段永平回答：就是看你怎么看待30倍市盈率买入30年利润每年增长率10％的企业。对有稳定成长的公司而言，这几乎就是道简单的算术题。10%的年增长率，假设投之前的盈利是1的话，30倍PE就意味着投入30，第10年的回报总和就是17.5，第20年是63（如果我没算错的话）。而且，茅台10%的平均成长很可能低估了。假如你有一笔现金，长期没有使用计划，你觉得投在哪里最舒服？每个人的机会成本都不一样，自己看着办吧。话虽如此，但市场似乎不买账，今年以来市场对白酒乃至整个消费行业普遍悲观。2、市场对消费行业普遍悲观2022年以来，部分地区疫情反复，聚会也变少了很多。市场预期白酒受到不小影响，白酒没有保质期，但市场普遍担心库存周期的问题。有网友称，其调研广东一些白酒经销商，部分品种4-5月份销量下降了20%。今年跟踪酒类的Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF普遍下跌较多。酒ETF（512690）跟踪的是中证酒指数（399987），过去17年中证酒指数年化收益高达25.33%。酒ETF（512690）过去也是一直走势很强的ETF，其重仓股是贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖和山西汾酒，今年最高回撤超30%。（本文内容均为客观数据和信息罗列，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议）2020年12月30日上市的食品饮料ETF（515170）也在下跌，重仓股贵州茅台、五粮液、伊利股份、泸州老窖、山西汾酒和海天味业，前十大权重白酒占据了半壁江山，最高回撤了35%。众所周知，食品饮料历来是牛股诞生地，过去20年食品饮料指数表现亮眼。然而从全球市场大牛股诞生地——食品饮料行业来看，牛股并不仅仅是酒，还有很多大的食品企业。从全球白酒烈酒上市公司市值来看，中国白酒企业市值较大，目前中国的酒类是世界第一。其他诸如食品等细分行业，均未出现世界巨头。而中国是全球最大消费市场之一，拥有14亿人口，除了白酒行业，其他跟老百姓衣食住行相关的细分，今后出现世界级企业概率自然也不小。这也很考验各大机构对指数基金的权重编排，如果能相对均衡去配比，在中国庞大的消费市场里，相信在这个长牛赛道的ETF还是值得期待。相比较酒ETF、食品饮料ETF，最近汽车ETF比较强势，原因是受益于新一轮汽车下乡的刺激。3、消费券促消费前不久，在清华五道口首席经济学家论坛上，著名经济学家李迅雷提出：1.促消费的效果要比基建投资更好。发放消费券能更直接地提高居民的消费能力和消费欲望。2.国内居民可支配收入对GDP的贡献远低于全球平均水平。（中国为2021年数据，泰国为2019年数据，其他国家均为2020年数据）与此同时，国内政府部门的杠杆率水平，大概只有美国的三分之一，日本的六分之一。因此，通过增加财政支出的方式来发消费券，应该具有足够的安全边际。发放消费券可以在短期内改善居民部门的收入状况，尤其在疫情期间。让群众能消费、敢消费、愿消费。倘若用消费券来刺激消费，市场对消费行业的悲观情绪能否改观？消费行业还能迎来第二春吗？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600519":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":993,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809788656,"gmtCreate":1627393278175,"gmtModify":1703489035298,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809788656","repostId":"1176379452","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176379452","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627378395,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176379452?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 17:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Dole updates prospectus: IPO pricing range is $20-23","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176379452","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"跨国食品公司都乐Dole plc 日前向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）更新招股书。据招股书显示，都乐拟发行2600万股（其中包含献售股东转让246万股），另外有15%的超额配股权，价格为IPO发行价格剔","content":"<p>Dole, a multinational food company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOLE\">Dole plc</a>Recently updated the prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to the prospectus, Dole plans to issue 26 million shares (including 2.46 million shares transferred by offering shareholders), and there is another 15% over-allotment option. The price is the IPO issue price excluding underwriting discounts and handling fees. The issuance price range per share is US $20-23, and the stock code is \"DOLE\". DOLE plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on July 27. The underwriters include Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, etc.</p><p><b>COMPANY PROFILE</b></p><p>Dole Foods Company is a multinational food company in the United States, headquartered in California. Dole is the world's largest provider of fresh fruits and vegetables, with sales operations in more than 80 countries and more than 300 products, including retail, wholesale and catering. As of December 31, 2020, the company had approximately 40,000 employees in 29 countries. Dole</p><p>plc was formerly known as Dole Food Company and Total Produce, and both companies have been in the agricultural products industry for more than 150 years. In 2018, Total Produce acquired 45% of Dole Food Company's parent company.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, the company owned approximately 109,000 acres worldwide on farms and beyond. In addition, it has a fleet of 10 reefer container carriers and 6 conventional reefer ships. We also own or lease approximately 16,800 reefer containers and 740 dry containers. There are approximately 250 factories worldwide, including approximately five salad manufacturing plants, 12 cold storage equipment plants, 75 packaging plants, and 162 distribution and manufacturing sites. This is in addition to long-term partnerships with independent growers worldwide.</p><p>Taken together, the fresh fruits and vegetables market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.7% from 2020 to 2025, with Europe growing by 2.1% and North America growing by 3.4%. From 2015 to 2019, the fresh fruits and vegetables segment grew at an annualized rate of 1.9%, with Europe and North America growing 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively.</p><p><b>Dole</b>Revenue was US $8.97 billion in 2020 and US $2.269 billion in the first quarter of 2021; Net profit was US $100 million in 2020 and US $58.22 million in the first quarter of 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bd73fadade53cbd9056b24748112a93\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>By product category:</b></p><p>In fiscal year 2020, Dole's fresh fruit revenue was US $2.796 billion, fresh vegetable revenue was US $1.268 billion, diversified (US and ROW) revenue was US $1.713 billion, diversified (Europe, Middle East and Africa) revenue was US $3.263 billion, inter-segment revenue was US $69.96 million, and total revenue was US $8.97 billion;</p><p>While adjusted EBITDA for fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, diversified (US and ROW), and diversified (EMEA) were US $172 million, US $39.65 million, US $52.94 million, and US $106 million, respectively, with total adjusted EBITDA of US $370 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8180376c8857bc12d7bddc83e47fe9\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"104\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Total Produce</b>From 2018 to 2020, the company's total revenue was US $4.393 billion, US $4.167 billion, and US $4.346 billion respectively; The net profits recorded during the same period were US $57.84 million, US $69.39 million, and US $71.25 million respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b80f75b023bfae754135391b9b8ea546\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>By major source of revenue:</b></p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, Total Produce's fresh produce revenue was $1.008 billion, health food and consumer goods revenue was $31.42 million, and third-party freight revenue was $11.1 million, with total revenue of $1.051 billion.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2020, Total Produce's fresh produce revenue was $949 million, health food and consumer goods revenue was $27.04 million, third-party freight revenue was $8.19 million, and total revenue was $984 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a828ce6d5feda0c11b0c869c53fea5d\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"107\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fiscal year 2020, Total Produce's fresh produce revenue was US $4.181 billion, health food and consumer goods revenue was US $124 million, third-party freight revenue was US $41.05 million, and total revenue was US $4.346 billion.</p><p>In fiscal year 2019, Total Produce's fresh produce revenue was US $4.026 billion, health food and consumer goods revenue was US $99.77 million, third-party freight revenue was US $40.73 million, and total revenue was US $4.167 billion.</p><p>In fiscal year 2018, Total Produce's fresh produce revenue was US $4.234 billion, health food and consumer goods revenue was US $115 million, third-party freight revenue was US $43.4 million, and total revenue was US $4.393 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/143ffca079f646747c63506466623ed4\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"99\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>By revenue channel:</b></p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, Total Produce's retail revenue was US $612 million, wholesale revenue was US $339 million, catering service revenue was US $71.71 million, and sales-to-equity method investment revenue was US $28.38 million. Revenue was US $1.051 billion.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2020, Total Produce's retail revenue was US $540 million, wholesale revenue was US $323 million, catering service revenue was US $95.55 million, and sales-to-equity investment revenue was US $26.05 million. Total revenue was US $984 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e29b478ff13293d06c87b066462b2b16\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fiscal year 2020, retail revenue was US $2.668 billion, wholesale revenue was US $1.253 billion, catering service revenue was US $311 million, sales to equity method investment revenue was US $114 million, and total revenue was US $4.346 billion.</p><p>In fiscal year 2019, retail revenue was US $2.387 billion, wholesale revenue was US $1.253 billion, catering service revenue was US $421 million, sales to equity method investment revenue was US $106 million, and total revenue was US $4.167 billion.</p><p>In fiscal year 2018, retail revenue was US $2.551 billion, wholesale revenue was US $1.337 billion, catering service revenue was US $406 million, sales to equity method investment revenue was US $98.56 million, and total revenue was US $4.393 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3583a335afce2886f18c4e06307d91ab\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>DFC Holdings</b>From 2018 to 2020, the company's total revenue was US $4.567 billion, US $4.516 billion, and US $4.672 billion respectively; The net profits recorded during the same period were US $13.57 million, US $41.34 million, and US $44.56 million, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef68bb409c896d30ccaf9a3c88d7c56\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Divided by similar products:</b></p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, fresh fruit revenue was $737 million. Revenue for value-added vegetables was $259 million, revenue for freshly packaged vegetables was $68.78 million, and revenue for diversified fruits was $167 million, totaling $1.233 billion.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, fresh fruit revenue was $756 million. Revenue for value-added vegetables was $233 million, revenue for freshly packaged vegetables was $74.95 million, and revenue for diversified fruits was $144 million, totaling $1.208 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0888706f2d62f10297aa3129a5248af\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"99\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fiscal year 2020, DFC Holdings' revenue for fresh fruits was US $2.764 billion, value-added vegetables was US $978 million, freshly packaged vegetables was US $289 million, and diversified fruits was US $640 million, totaling US $4.672 billion.</p><p>In fiscal year 2019, fresh fruit revenue was $2.695 billion. Revenue for value-added vegetables was $877 million, revenue for freshly packaged vegetables was $308 million, and revenue for diversified fruits was $636 million, totaling $4,516 million.</p><p>In fiscal year 2018, fresh fruit revenue was $2.795 billion. Revenue for value-added vegetables was $805 million, revenue for freshly packaged vegetables was $313 million, and revenue for diversified fruits was $653 million, totaling $4,567 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e383b9a8fcce08ddd111b54f81cf2e7b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The use of proceeds is as follows:</b></p><p>1. It is planned to use US $60 million of the net proceeds to pay the cost of this transaction and related debt financing;</p><p>2. $309 million for the redemption of outstanding senior secured notes of Dole Foods Company due 2025 (excluding unpaid and accrued interest);</p><p>3. Net proceeds of $78.5 million, together with cash on hand and amounts available under the amended credit agreement, for the full repayment of the existing Total Produce revolving credit overdraft facility;</p><p>4. Any remaining net proceeds from the Offering, together with cash on hand and the amount available under the Amended Credit Agreement, are used to fully repay the existing credit overdraft facility of Dole Food Company.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dole updates prospectus: IPO pricing range is $20-23</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDole updates prospectus: IPO pricing range is $20-23\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-27 17:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Dole, a multinational food company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOLE\">Dole plc</a>Recently updated the prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to the prospectus, Dole plans to issue 26 million shares (including 2.46 million shares transferred by offering shareholders), and there is another 15% over-allotment option. The price is the IPO issue price excluding underwriting discounts and handling fees. The issuance price range per share is US $20-23, and the stock code is \"DOLE\". DOLE plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on July 27. The underwriters include Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, etc.</p><p><b>COMPANY PROFILE</b></p><p>Dole Foods Company is a multinational food company in the United States, headquartered in California. Dole is the world's largest provider of fresh fruits and vegetables, with sales operations in more than 80 countries and more than 300 products, including retail, wholesale and catering. As of December 31, 2020, the company had approximately 40,000 employees in 29 countries. Dole</p><p>plc was formerly known as Dole Food Company and Total Produce, and both companies have been in the agricultural products industry for more than 150 years. In 2018, Total Produce acquired 45% of Dole Food Company's parent company.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, the company owned approximately 109,000 acres worldwide on farms and beyond. In addition, it has a fleet of 10 reefer container carriers and 6 conventional reefer ships. We also own or lease approximately 16,800 reefer containers and 740 dry containers. There are approximately 250 factories worldwide, including approximately five salad manufacturing plants, 12 cold storage equipment plants, 75 packaging plants, and 162 distribution and manufacturing sites. This is in addition to long-term partnerships with independent growers worldwide.</p><p>Taken together, the fresh fruits and vegetables market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.7% from 2020 to 2025, with Europe growing by 2.1% and North America growing by 3.4%. From 2015 to 2019, the fresh fruits and vegetables segment grew at an annualized rate of 1.9%, with Europe and North America growing 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively.</p><p><b>Dole</b>Revenue was US $8.97 billion in 2020 and US $2.269 billion in the first quarter of 2021; Net profit was US $100 million in 2020 and US $58.22 million in the first quarter of 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bd73fadade53cbd9056b24748112a93\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>By product category:</b></p><p>In fiscal year 2020, Dole's fresh fruit revenue was US $2.796 billion, fresh vegetable revenue was US $1.268 billion, diversified (US and ROW) revenue was US $1.713 billion, diversified (Europe, Middle East and Africa) revenue was US $3.263 billion, inter-segment revenue was US $69.96 million, and total revenue was US $8.97 billion;</p><p>While adjusted EBITDA for fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, diversified (US and ROW), and diversified (EMEA) were US $172 million, US $39.65 million, US $52.94 million, and US $106 million, respectively, with total adjusted EBITDA of US $370 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8180376c8857bc12d7bddc83e47fe9\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"104\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Total Produce</b>From 2018 to 2020, the company's total revenue was US $4.393 billion, US $4.167 billion, and US $4.346 billion respectively; The net profits recorded during the same period were US $57.84 million, US $69.39 million, and US $71.25 million respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b80f75b023bfae754135391b9b8ea546\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>By major source of revenue:</b></p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, Total Produce's fresh produce revenue was $1.008 billion, health food and consumer goods revenue was $31.42 million, and third-party freight revenue was $11.1 million, with total revenue of $1.051 billion.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2020, Total Produce's fresh produce revenue was $949 million, health food and consumer goods revenue was $27.04 million, third-party freight revenue was $8.19 million, and total revenue was $984 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a828ce6d5feda0c11b0c869c53fea5d\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"107\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fiscal year 2020, Total Produce's fresh produce revenue was US $4.181 billion, health food and consumer goods revenue was US $124 million, third-party freight revenue was US $41.05 million, and total revenue was US $4.346 billion.</p><p>In fiscal year 2019, Total Produce's fresh produce revenue was US $4.026 billion, health food and consumer goods revenue was US $99.77 million, third-party freight revenue was US $40.73 million, and total revenue was US $4.167 billion.</p><p>In fiscal year 2018, Total Produce's fresh produce revenue was US $4.234 billion, health food and consumer goods revenue was US $115 million, third-party freight revenue was US $43.4 million, and total revenue was US $4.393 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/143ffca079f646747c63506466623ed4\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"99\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>By revenue channel:</b></p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, Total Produce's retail revenue was US $612 million, wholesale revenue was US $339 million, catering service revenue was US $71.71 million, and sales-to-equity method investment revenue was US $28.38 million. Revenue was US $1.051 billion.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2020, Total Produce's retail revenue was US $540 million, wholesale revenue was US $323 million, catering service revenue was US $95.55 million, and sales-to-equity investment revenue was US $26.05 million. Total revenue was US $984 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e29b478ff13293d06c87b066462b2b16\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fiscal year 2020, retail revenue was US $2.668 billion, wholesale revenue was US $1.253 billion, catering service revenue was US $311 million, sales to equity method investment revenue was US $114 million, and total revenue was US $4.346 billion.</p><p>In fiscal year 2019, retail revenue was US $2.387 billion, wholesale revenue was US $1.253 billion, catering service revenue was US $421 million, sales to equity method investment revenue was US $106 million, and total revenue was US $4.167 billion.</p><p>In fiscal year 2018, retail revenue was US $2.551 billion, wholesale revenue was US $1.337 billion, catering service revenue was US $406 million, sales to equity method investment revenue was US $98.56 million, and total revenue was US $4.393 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3583a335afce2886f18c4e06307d91ab\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>DFC Holdings</b>From 2018 to 2020, the company's total revenue was US $4.567 billion, US $4.516 billion, and US $4.672 billion respectively; The net profits recorded during the same period were US $13.57 million, US $41.34 million, and US $44.56 million, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef68bb409c896d30ccaf9a3c88d7c56\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Divided by similar products:</b></p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, fresh fruit revenue was $737 million. Revenue for value-added vegetables was $259 million, revenue for freshly packaged vegetables was $68.78 million, and revenue for diversified fruits was $167 million, totaling $1.233 billion.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, fresh fruit revenue was $756 million. Revenue for value-added vegetables was $233 million, revenue for freshly packaged vegetables was $74.95 million, and revenue for diversified fruits was $144 million, totaling $1.208 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0888706f2d62f10297aa3129a5248af\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"99\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fiscal year 2020, DFC Holdings' revenue for fresh fruits was US $2.764 billion, value-added vegetables was US $978 million, freshly packaged vegetables was US $289 million, and diversified fruits was US $640 million, totaling US $4.672 billion.</p><p>In fiscal year 2019, fresh fruit revenue was $2.695 billion. Revenue for value-added vegetables was $877 million, revenue for freshly packaged vegetables was $308 million, and revenue for diversified fruits was $636 million, totaling $4,516 million.</p><p>In fiscal year 2018, fresh fruit revenue was $2.795 billion. Revenue for value-added vegetables was $805 million, revenue for freshly packaged vegetables was $313 million, and revenue for diversified fruits was $653 million, totaling $4,567 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e383b9a8fcce08ddd111b54f81cf2e7b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The use of proceeds is as follows:</b></p><p>1. It is planned to use US $60 million of the net proceeds to pay the cost of this transaction and related debt financing;</p><p>2. $309 million for the redemption of outstanding senior secured notes of Dole Foods Company due 2025 (excluding unpaid and accrued interest);</p><p>3. Net proceeds of $78.5 million, together with cash on hand and amounts available under the amended credit agreement, for the full repayment of the existing Total Produce revolving credit overdraft facility;</p><p>4. Any remaining net proceeds from the Offering, together with cash on hand and the amount available under the Amended Credit Agreement, are used to fully repay the existing credit overdraft facility of Dole Food Company.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{"DOLE":"都乐食品"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176379452","content_text":"跨国食品公司都乐Dole plc 日前向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）更新招股书。据招股书显示，都乐拟发行2600万股（其中包含献售股东转让246万股），另外有15%的超额配股权，价格为IPO发行价格剔除承销折扣和手续费。每股发行价格区间为20-23美元，股票代码为“DOLE”，都乐拟于7月27日在纽约证券交易所（NYSE）上市，承销商包括高盛、德意志银行等。\n公司简介\n都乐食品公司是美国的一家跨国食品公司，总部设于加利福尼亚州。都乐为全球最大的新鲜水果和蔬菜提供商，在八十多个国家有销售业务，经营三百多样产品，包括零售、批发和餐饮。截止2020年12月31日，该公司有约4万名员工，分布在29个国家。Dole\nplc的前身是Dole Food Company和Total Produce，且两家公司都在农产品行业有超过150年的历史。2018年，Total Produce收购了 Dole Food Company母公司 45%的股份。\n截至 2021年 3月 31日，该公司在全球拥有约109,000英亩的农场及其他。此外，还拥有一支由 10艘冷藏集装箱运输船和 6艘常规冷藏船组成的船队。我们还拥有或租赁了大约 16,800个冷藏集装箱和 740个干货集装箱。全球约有 250家工厂，其中包括约 5家沙拉制造厂、12家冷藏设备厂、75家包装厂以及 162家分销和制造基地。除此之外，还与全球的独立种植者建立了长期的合作关系。\n综合来看，从 2020年到 2025年，新鲜水果和蔬菜市场预计将以 2.7%的年增长率增长，其中欧洲增长 2.1%，北美增长 3.4%。从2015年到2019年，新鲜水果和蔬菜板块的年化增长率为1.9%，其中欧洲和北美分别增长了1.5%和2.5%。\n都乐在2020年营收为89.7亿美元，在2021年第一季度营收为22.69亿美元；在2020年净利润为1亿美元，在2021年第一季度净利润为5822万美元。\n按产品类别划分：\n在2020财年，都乐的新鲜水果的营收为27.96亿美元，新鲜蔬菜的营收为12.68亿美元，多样化（美国和ROW）的营收为17.13亿美元，多样化（欧洲、中东和非洲）的营收为32.63亿美元，分部间营收为6996万美元，总营收89.7亿美元；\n而新鲜水果、新鲜蔬菜、多样化（美国和ROW）、多样化（欧洲、中东和非洲）的调整后EBITDA分别为1.72亿美元、3965万美元、5294万美元、1.06亿美元，调整后EBITDA总额为3.7亿美元。\nTotal Produce在2018~2020年，公司的总营收分别为43.93亿美元、41.67亿美元、43.46亿美元；同期录得的净利润分别为5784万美元、6939万美元、7125万美元。\n按主要收入来源划分：\n在2021年第一季度，Total Produce的新鲜农产品的营收为10.08亿美元，保健食品和消费品的营收为3142万美元，第三方货运的营收为1110万美元，总营收10.51亿美元。\n在2020年第一季度，Total Produce的新鲜农产品的营收为9.49亿美元，保健食品和消费品的营收为2704万美元，第三方货运的营收为819万美元，总营收9.84亿美元。\n2020财年，Total Produce的新鲜农产品的营收为41.81亿美元，保健食品和消费品的营收为1.24亿美元，第三方货运的营收为4105万美元，总营收43.46亿美元。\n2019财年，Total Produce的新鲜农产品的营收为40.26亿美元，保健食品和消费品的营收为9977万美元，第三方货运的营收为4073万美元，总营收41.67亿美元。\n2018财年，Total Produce的新鲜农产品的营收为42.34亿美元，保健食品和消费品的营收为1.15亿美元，第三方货运的营收为4340万美元，总营收43.93亿美元。\n按收入渠道来划分：\n在2021年第一季度，Total Produce零售的营收为6.12亿美元，批发的营收为3.39亿美元，餐饮服务的营收为7171万美元，销售转权益法投资的营收为2838万美元，总营收10.51亿美元。\n在2020年第一季度，Total Produce零售的营收为5.40亿美元，批发的营收为3.23亿美元，餐饮服务的营收为9555万美元，销售转权益法投资的营收为2605万美元，总营收9.84亿美元。\n2020财年，零售的营收为26.68亿美元，批发的营收为12.53亿美元，餐饮服务的营收为3.11亿美元，销售转权益法投资的营收为1.14亿美元，总营收43.46亿美元。\n2019财年，零售的营收为23.87亿美元，批发的营收为12.53亿美元，餐饮服务的营收为4.21亿美元，销售转权益法投资的营收为1.06亿美元，总营收41.67亿美元。\n2018财年，零售的营收为25.51亿美元，批发的营收为13.37亿美元，餐饮服务的营收为4.06亿美元，销售转权益法投资的营收为9856万美元，总营收43.93亿美元。\nDFC Holdings在2018~2020年，公司的总营收分别为45.67亿美元、45.16亿美元、46.72亿美元；同期录得的净利润分别为1357万美元、4134万美元、4456万美元。\n按同类产品划分：\n在2021年第一季度，新鲜水果的营收为7.37亿美元。增值蔬菜的营收为2.59亿美元，新鲜包装蔬菜的营收为6878万美元，多样化水果的营收为1.67亿美元，合计12.33亿美元。\n在2021年第一季度，新鲜水果的营收为7.56亿美元。增值蔬菜的营收为2.33亿美元，新鲜包装蔬菜的营收为7495万美元，多样化水果的营收为1.44亿美元，合计12.08亿美元。\n在2020财年，DFC Holdings的新鲜水果的营收为27.64亿美元，增值蔬菜的营收为9.78亿美元，新鲜包装蔬菜的营收为2.89亿美元，多样化水果的营收为6.4亿美元，合计46.72亿美元。\n在2019财年，新鲜水果的营收为26.95亿美元。增值蔬菜的营收为8.77亿美元，新鲜包装蔬菜的营收为3.08亿美元，多样化水果的营收为6.36亿美元，合计45.16亿美元。\n在2018财年，新鲜水果的营收为27.95亿美元。增值蔬菜的营收为8.05亿美元，新鲜包装蔬菜的营收为3.13亿美元，多样化水果的营收为6.53亿美元，合计45.67亿美元。\n以下为所得款项用途：\n1.计划使用净收益中的6000万美元来支付本次交易及相关债务融资的成本；\n2. 3.09亿美元用于赎回都乐食品公司于2025年到期的未偿还优先有担保票据（不包括未付和应计利息）；\n3. 7850万美元净收益，连同库存现金和修订后的信贷协议下的可用金额，用于全额偿还现有的Total Produce循环信贷透支额度；\n4.本次发行的任何剩余净收益，连同库存现金和修订后的信贷协议下的可用金额，用于全额偿还Dole Food Company的现有信贷透支额度。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DOLE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165178181,"gmtCreate":1624111590243,"gmtModify":1703828961085,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165178181","repostId":"2144170319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144170319","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624086714,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144170319?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-19 15:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccination, and the goal of 70% adult vaccination meets the challenge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144170319","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　中新社华盛顿6月18日电 美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。　　尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","content":"<p>(Fighting novel coronavirus pneumonia) Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccine vaccination, 70% of adult vaccination goals meet challenges</p><p>China news agency, June 18 (Reporter Chen Mengtong) US President Biden announced at the White House on the 18th that within 150 days of his appointment, the United States had completed 300 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine vaccination.</p><p>Biden said in a speech on the epidemic that day: \"Compared with last year, the United States is about to usher in a very different summer. A bright and pleasant summer.\"</p><p>According to data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of the 18th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 33.51 million, and the number of deaths reached 601,000. At present, the average number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States in 7 days is about 12,000 and 300.</p><p>Although the epidemic situation has improved significantly, the American people's willingness to vaccinate has decreased, challenging another anti-epidemic goal of the Biden administration. Biden previously proposed that 70% of American adults should receive at least one dose of vaccine by July 4. With 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, this figure is still at 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>\"Pointed out that the above goals may not be achieved until summer. Currently, the seven-day average vaccination volume in the United States is about 1.1 million doses, well below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden noted that areas of the United States with high vaccination rates have seen significant declines in death rates and hospitalizations. \"But unfortunately, in states with low vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not declining in many places. In some places, they are actually rising.\"</p><p>According to the data released by the White House on the 18th, at present, more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the current vaccination rate of one dose in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other places is less than 50%.</p><p>At the same time, Biden pointed out that the new crown variant virus is a \"serious problem\" in the United States' fight against the epidemic. The new coronavirus variant will make unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. In the face of high-risk and highly transmissible mutated viruses, complete vaccination is still the \"best way\" to protect yourself.</p><p>\"On July 4th, we will celebrate independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We want everyone to do it,\" Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House revealed that a thousand-person celebration will be held on the South Lawn on Independence Day, inviting medical staff, rescue workers and their families on the front line of the epidemic to attend. This will be the largest event held in the White House since Biden became president.</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccination, and the goal of 70% adult vaccination meets the challenge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccination, and the goal of 70% adult vaccination meets the challenge\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 15:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Fighting novel coronavirus pneumonia) Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccine vaccination, 70% of adult vaccination goals meet challenges</p><p>China news agency, June 18 (Reporter Chen Mengtong) US President Biden announced at the White House on the 18th that within 150 days of his appointment, the United States had completed 300 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine vaccination.</p><p>Biden said in a speech on the epidemic that day: \"Compared with last year, the United States is about to usher in a very different summer. A bright and pleasant summer.\"</p><p>According to data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of the 18th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 33.51 million, and the number of deaths reached 601,000. At present, the average number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States in 7 days is about 12,000 and 300.</p><p>Although the epidemic situation has improved significantly, the American people's willingness to vaccinate has decreased, challenging another anti-epidemic goal of the Biden administration. Biden previously proposed that 70% of American adults should receive at least one dose of vaccine by July 4. With 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, this figure is still at 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>\"Pointed out that the above goals may not be achieved until summer. Currently, the seven-day average vaccination volume in the United States is about 1.1 million doses, well below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden noted that areas of the United States with high vaccination rates have seen significant declines in death rates and hospitalizations. \"But unfortunately, in states with low vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not declining in many places. In some places, they are actually rising.\"</p><p>According to the data released by the White House on the 18th, at present, more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the current vaccination rate of one dose in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other places is less than 50%.</p><p>At the same time, Biden pointed out that the new crown variant virus is a \"serious problem\" in the United States' fight against the epidemic. The new coronavirus variant will make unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. In the face of high-risk and highly transmissible mutated viruses, complete vaccination is still the \"best way\" to protect yourself.</p><p>\"On July 4th, we will celebrate independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We want everyone to do it,\" Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House revealed that a thousand-person celebration will be held on the South Lawn on Independence Day, inviting medical staff, rescue workers and their families on the front line of the epidemic to attend. This will be the largest event held in the White House since Biden became president.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26835d2a08742c3de45f524c7bb8604","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144170319","content_text":"（抗击新冠肺炎）拜登政府完成3亿剂疫苗接种 70%成人接种目标迎挑战\n中新社华盛顿6月18日电 （记者 陈孟统）美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。\n拜登当天就疫情发表讲话说：“与去年相比，美国即将迎来一个非常不同的夏天。一个明亮的、愉悦的夏天。”\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学数据，截至18日，美国累计新冠确诊病例超3351万，死亡病例达60.1万。目前，美国7天平均确诊和死亡病例约为1.2万例和300例。\n尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。距离独立日假期还剩15天，但这一数据仍为65.1%。\n《华盛顿邮报》指出，上述目标可能要到夏天才能实现。目前，美国7天平均疫苗接种量约为110万剂，远低于高峰时期的每日330万剂。\n拜登指出，美国疫苗接种率高的地区，死亡率和住院率大幅下降。“但不幸的是，在疫苗接种率较低的州，许多地方的新增病例和住院率并没有下降。在一些地方，实际在上升。”\n白宫18日公布的数据显示，目前，超过1.75亿美国人已至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。而据美国媒体统计，亚拉巴马州、路易斯安那州、密西西比州、田纳西州、怀俄明州等地目前一剂疫苗接种率不足50%。\n拜登同时指出，新冠变异病毒是美国抗击疫情的一个“严重问题”。新冠变异病毒将使未接种疫苗的人比一个月前更加脆弱。面对高危险性、高传播性的变异病毒，完全接种疫苗仍是自我保护的“最佳方法”。\n“7月4日，我们将在欢度独立日的同时，庆祝摆脱疫情而独立。我们希望每个人都能做到。”拜登如是说。\n本周早些时候，白宫对外透露，独立日当天将在南草坪举办千人规模的庆祝活动，邀请在抗疫一线的医务人员、救援人员及其家人参加。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165178908,"gmtCreate":1624111572204,"gmtModify":1703828960924,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165178908","repostId":"2144170319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144170319","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624086714,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144170319?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-19 15:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccination, and the goal of 70% adult vaccination meets the challenge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144170319","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　中新社华盛顿6月18日电 美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。　　尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","content":"<p>(Fighting novel coronavirus pneumonia) Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccine vaccination, 70% of adult vaccination goals meet challenges</p><p>China news agency, June 18 (Reporter Chen Mengtong) US President Biden announced at the White House on the 18th that within 150 days of his appointment, the United States had completed 300 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine vaccination.</p><p>Biden said in a speech on the epidemic that day: \"Compared with last year, the United States is about to usher in a very different summer. A bright and pleasant summer.\"</p><p>According to data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of the 18th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 33.51 million, and the number of deaths reached 601,000. At present, the average number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States in 7 days is about 12,000 and 300.</p><p>Although the epidemic situation has improved significantly, the American people's willingness to vaccinate has decreased, challenging another anti-epidemic goal of the Biden administration. Biden previously proposed that 70% of American adults should receive at least one dose of vaccine by July 4. With 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, this figure is still at 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>\"Pointed out that the above goals may not be achieved until summer. Currently, the seven-day average vaccination volume in the United States is about 1.1 million doses, well below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden noted that areas of the United States with high vaccination rates have seen significant declines in death rates and hospitalizations. \"But unfortunately, in states with low vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not declining in many places. In some places, they are actually rising.\"</p><p>According to the data released by the White House on the 18th, at present, more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the current vaccination rate of one dose in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other places is less than 50%.</p><p>At the same time, Biden pointed out that the new crown variant virus is a \"serious problem\" in the United States' fight against the epidemic. The new coronavirus variant will make unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. In the face of high-risk and highly transmissible mutated viruses, complete vaccination is still the \"best way\" to protect yourself.</p><p>\"On July 4th, we will celebrate independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We want everyone to do it,\" Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House revealed that a thousand-person celebration will be held on the South Lawn on Independence Day, inviting medical staff, rescue workers and their families on the front line of the epidemic to attend. This will be the largest event held in the White House since Biden became president.</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccination, and the goal of 70% adult vaccination meets the challenge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccination, and the goal of 70% adult vaccination meets the challenge\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 15:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Fighting novel coronavirus pneumonia) Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccine vaccination, 70% of adult vaccination goals meet challenges</p><p>China news agency, June 18 (Reporter Chen Mengtong) US President Biden announced at the White House on the 18th that within 150 days of his appointment, the United States had completed 300 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine vaccination.</p><p>Biden said in a speech on the epidemic that day: \"Compared with last year, the United States is about to usher in a very different summer. A bright and pleasant summer.\"</p><p>According to data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of the 18th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 33.51 million, and the number of deaths reached 601,000. At present, the average number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States in 7 days is about 12,000 and 300.</p><p>Although the epidemic situation has improved significantly, the American people's willingness to vaccinate has decreased, challenging another anti-epidemic goal of the Biden administration. Biden previously proposed that 70% of American adults should receive at least one dose of vaccine by July 4. With 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, this figure is still at 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>\"Pointed out that the above goals may not be achieved until summer. Currently, the seven-day average vaccination volume in the United States is about 1.1 million doses, well below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden noted that areas of the United States with high vaccination rates have seen significant declines in death rates and hospitalizations. \"But unfortunately, in states with low vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not declining in many places. In some places, they are actually rising.\"</p><p>According to the data released by the White House on the 18th, at present, more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the current vaccination rate of one dose in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other places is less than 50%.</p><p>At the same time, Biden pointed out that the new crown variant virus is a \"serious problem\" in the United States' fight against the epidemic. The new coronavirus variant will make unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. In the face of high-risk and highly transmissible mutated viruses, complete vaccination is still the \"best way\" to protect yourself.</p><p>\"On July 4th, we will celebrate independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We want everyone to do it,\" Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House revealed that a thousand-person celebration will be held on the South Lawn on Independence Day, inviting medical staff, rescue workers and their families on the front line of the epidemic to attend. This will be the largest event held in the White House since Biden became president.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26835d2a08742c3de45f524c7bb8604","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144170319","content_text":"（抗击新冠肺炎）拜登政府完成3亿剂疫苗接种 70%成人接种目标迎挑战\n中新社华盛顿6月18日电 （记者 陈孟统）美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。\n拜登当天就疫情发表讲话说：“与去年相比，美国即将迎来一个非常不同的夏天。一个明亮的、愉悦的夏天。”\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学数据，截至18日，美国累计新冠确诊病例超3351万，死亡病例达60.1万。目前，美国7天平均确诊和死亡病例约为1.2万例和300例。\n尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。距离独立日假期还剩15天，但这一数据仍为65.1%。\n《华盛顿邮报》指出，上述目标可能要到夏天才能实现。目前，美国7天平均疫苗接种量约为110万剂，远低于高峰时期的每日330万剂。\n拜登指出，美国疫苗接种率高的地区，死亡率和住院率大幅下降。“但不幸的是，在疫苗接种率较低的州，许多地方的新增病例和住院率并没有下降。在一些地方，实际在上升。”\n白宫18日公布的数据显示，目前，超过1.75亿美国人已至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。而据美国媒体统计，亚拉巴马州、路易斯安那州、密西西比州、田纳西州、怀俄明州等地目前一剂疫苗接种率不足50%。\n拜登同时指出，新冠变异病毒是美国抗击疫情的一个“严重问题”。新冠变异病毒将使未接种疫苗的人比一个月前更加脆弱。面对高危险性、高传播性的变异病毒，完全接种疫苗仍是自我保护的“最佳方法”。\n“7月4日，我们将在欢度独立日的同时，庆祝摆脱疫情而独立。我们希望每个人都能做到。”拜登如是说。\n本周早些时候，白宫对外透露，独立日当天将在南草坪举办千人规模的庆祝活动，邀请在抗疫一线的医务人员、救援人员及其家人参加。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160972592,"gmtCreate":1623770967816,"gmtModify":1703818973250,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160972592","repostId":"1169602512","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":377589381,"gmtCreate":1619535555643,"gmtModify":1704725624989,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh nice","listText":"Oh nice","text":"Oh nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377589381","repostId":"1184721911","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184721911","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619535073,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184721911?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-27 22:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Shushulang Education Holdings submits listing application to Hong Kong Stock Exchange","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184721911","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据港交所文件：中国K12教育科技公司读书郎教育控股向港交所提交上市申请书，中信建投及麦格理为联席保荐人。","content":"<p>According to Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents: China's K12 education technology company Shushulang Education Holdings submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601066\">China Securities Investment</a>And Macquarie as joint sponsors.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shushulang Education Holdings submits listing application to Hong Kong Stock Exchange</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShushulang Education Holdings submits listing application to Hong Kong Stock Exchange\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-27 22:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents: China's K12 education technology company Shushulang Education Holdings submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601066\">China Securities Investment</a>And Macquarie as joint sponsors.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd9374646d4e20d7557e943b5ef8a918","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184721911","content_text":"据港交所文件：中国K12教育科技公司读书郎教育控股向港交所提交上市申请书，中信建投及麦格理为联席保荐人。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192331791,"gmtCreate":1621143852813,"gmtModify":1704353352581,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ?&nbsp;","listText":"Good ?&nbsp;","text":"Good ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192331791","repostId":"2135989900","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191994021,"gmtCreate":1620831931863,"gmtModify":1704349108693,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191994021","repostId":"1184130678","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184130678","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620829178,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184130678?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-12 22:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Li Auto continued to rise by more than 8%, leading the rise in the new energy vehicle sector","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184130678","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周三盘中，理想汽车持续拉升，截至发稿涨幅扩大至8%。与此同时，小鹏汽车跌0.08%，蔚来跌0.52%，特斯拉跌超1.5%。","content":"<p>Wednesday intraday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It continued to rise, and as of press time, the increase expanded to 8%. At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Down 0.08%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Down 0.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Fell more than 1.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a736d0010000757a1e003d96005bd9ab\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Auto continued to rise by more than 8%, leading the rise in the new energy vehicle sector</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Auto continued to rise by more than 8%, leading the rise in the new energy vehicle sector\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-12 22:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Wednesday intraday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It continued to rise, and as of press time, the increase expanded to 8%. At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Down 0.08%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Down 0.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Fell more than 1.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a736d0010000757a1e003d96005bd9ab\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cd608dea059f96a8bee52aea078452e","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","02015":"理想汽车-W","NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184130678","content_text":"周三盘中，理想汽车持续拉升，截至发稿涨幅扩大至8%。与此同时，小鹏汽车跌0.08%，蔚来跌0.52%，特斯拉跌超1.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"02015":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028645815,"gmtCreate":1653224040837,"gmtModify":1676535242386,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"q","listText":"q","text":"q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028645815","repostId":"1168811044","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165178181,"gmtCreate":1624111590243,"gmtModify":1703828961085,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165178181","repostId":"2144170319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144170319","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624086714,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144170319?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-19 15:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccination, and the goal of 70% adult vaccination meets the challenge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144170319","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　中新社华盛顿6月18日电 美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。　　尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","content":"<p>(Fighting novel coronavirus pneumonia) Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccine vaccination, 70% of adult vaccination goals meet challenges</p><p>China news agency, June 18 (Reporter Chen Mengtong) US President Biden announced at the White House on the 18th that within 150 days of his appointment, the United States had completed 300 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine vaccination.</p><p>Biden said in a speech on the epidemic that day: \"Compared with last year, the United States is about to usher in a very different summer. A bright and pleasant summer.\"</p><p>According to data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of the 18th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 33.51 million, and the number of deaths reached 601,000. At present, the average number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States in 7 days is about 12,000 and 300.</p><p>Although the epidemic situation has improved significantly, the American people's willingness to vaccinate has decreased, challenging another anti-epidemic goal of the Biden administration. Biden previously proposed that 70% of American adults should receive at least one dose of vaccine by July 4. With 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, this figure is still at 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>\"Pointed out that the above goals may not be achieved until summer. Currently, the seven-day average vaccination volume in the United States is about 1.1 million doses, well below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden noted that areas of the United States with high vaccination rates have seen significant declines in death rates and hospitalizations. \"But unfortunately, in states with low vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not declining in many places. In some places, they are actually rising.\"</p><p>According to the data released by the White House on the 18th, at present, more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the current vaccination rate of one dose in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other places is less than 50%.</p><p>At the same time, Biden pointed out that the new crown variant virus is a \"serious problem\" in the United States' fight against the epidemic. The new coronavirus variant will make unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. In the face of high-risk and highly transmissible mutated viruses, complete vaccination is still the \"best way\" to protect yourself.</p><p>\"On July 4th, we will celebrate independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We want everyone to do it,\" Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House revealed that a thousand-person celebration will be held on the South Lawn on Independence Day, inviting medical staff, rescue workers and their families on the front line of the epidemic to attend. This will be the largest event held in the White House since Biden became president.</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccination, and the goal of 70% adult vaccination meets the challenge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccination, and the goal of 70% adult vaccination meets the challenge\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 15:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Fighting novel coronavirus pneumonia) Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccine vaccination, 70% of adult vaccination goals meet challenges</p><p>China news agency, June 18 (Reporter Chen Mengtong) US President Biden announced at the White House on the 18th that within 150 days of his appointment, the United States had completed 300 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine vaccination.</p><p>Biden said in a speech on the epidemic that day: \"Compared with last year, the United States is about to usher in a very different summer. A bright and pleasant summer.\"</p><p>According to data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of the 18th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 33.51 million, and the number of deaths reached 601,000. At present, the average number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States in 7 days is about 12,000 and 300.</p><p>Although the epidemic situation has improved significantly, the American people's willingness to vaccinate has decreased, challenging another anti-epidemic goal of the Biden administration. Biden previously proposed that 70% of American adults should receive at least one dose of vaccine by July 4. With 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, this figure is still at 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>\"Pointed out that the above goals may not be achieved until summer. Currently, the seven-day average vaccination volume in the United States is about 1.1 million doses, well below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden noted that areas of the United States with high vaccination rates have seen significant declines in death rates and hospitalizations. \"But unfortunately, in states with low vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not declining in many places. In some places, they are actually rising.\"</p><p>According to the data released by the White House on the 18th, at present, more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the current vaccination rate of one dose in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other places is less than 50%.</p><p>At the same time, Biden pointed out that the new crown variant virus is a \"serious problem\" in the United States' fight against the epidemic. The new coronavirus variant will make unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. In the face of high-risk and highly transmissible mutated viruses, complete vaccination is still the \"best way\" to protect yourself.</p><p>\"On July 4th, we will celebrate independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We want everyone to do it,\" Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House revealed that a thousand-person celebration will be held on the South Lawn on Independence Day, inviting medical staff, rescue workers and their families on the front line of the epidemic to attend. This will be the largest event held in the White House since Biden became president.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26835d2a08742c3de45f524c7bb8604","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144170319","content_text":"（抗击新冠肺炎）拜登政府完成3亿剂疫苗接种 70%成人接种目标迎挑战\n中新社华盛顿6月18日电 （记者 陈孟统）美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。\n拜登当天就疫情发表讲话说：“与去年相比，美国即将迎来一个非常不同的夏天。一个明亮的、愉悦的夏天。”\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学数据，截至18日，美国累计新冠确诊病例超3351万，死亡病例达60.1万。目前，美国7天平均确诊和死亡病例约为1.2万例和300例。\n尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。距离独立日假期还剩15天，但这一数据仍为65.1%。\n《华盛顿邮报》指出，上述目标可能要到夏天才能实现。目前，美国7天平均疫苗接种量约为110万剂，远低于高峰时期的每日330万剂。\n拜登指出，美国疫苗接种率高的地区，死亡率和住院率大幅下降。“但不幸的是，在疫苗接种率较低的州，许多地方的新增病例和住院率并没有下降。在一些地方，实际在上升。”\n白宫18日公布的数据显示，目前，超过1.75亿美国人已至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。而据美国媒体统计，亚拉巴马州、路易斯安那州、密西西比州、田纳西州、怀俄明州等地目前一剂疫苗接种率不足50%。\n拜登同时指出，新冠变异病毒是美国抗击疫情的一个“严重问题”。新冠变异病毒将使未接种疫苗的人比一个月前更加脆弱。面对高危险性、高传播性的变异病毒，完全接种疫苗仍是自我保护的“最佳方法”。\n“7月4日，我们将在欢度独立日的同时，庆祝摆脱疫情而独立。我们希望每个人都能做到。”拜登如是说。\n本周早些时候，白宫对外透露，独立日当天将在南草坪举办千人规模的庆祝活动，邀请在抗疫一线的医务人员、救援人员及其家人参加。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165178908,"gmtCreate":1624111572204,"gmtModify":1703828960924,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165178908","repostId":"2144170319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144170319","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624086714,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144170319?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-19 15:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccination, and the goal of 70% adult vaccination meets the challenge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144170319","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　中新社华盛顿6月18日电 美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。　　尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","content":"<p>(Fighting novel coronavirus pneumonia) Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccine vaccination, 70% of adult vaccination goals meet challenges</p><p>China news agency, June 18 (Reporter Chen Mengtong) US President Biden announced at the White House on the 18th that within 150 days of his appointment, the United States had completed 300 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine vaccination.</p><p>Biden said in a speech on the epidemic that day: \"Compared with last year, the United States is about to usher in a very different summer. A bright and pleasant summer.\"</p><p>According to data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of the 18th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 33.51 million, and the number of deaths reached 601,000. At present, the average number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States in 7 days is about 12,000 and 300.</p><p>Although the epidemic situation has improved significantly, the American people's willingness to vaccinate has decreased, challenging another anti-epidemic goal of the Biden administration. Biden previously proposed that 70% of American adults should receive at least one dose of vaccine by July 4. With 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, this figure is still at 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>\"Pointed out that the above goals may not be achieved until summer. Currently, the seven-day average vaccination volume in the United States is about 1.1 million doses, well below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden noted that areas of the United States with high vaccination rates have seen significant declines in death rates and hospitalizations. \"But unfortunately, in states with low vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not declining in many places. In some places, they are actually rising.\"</p><p>According to the data released by the White House on the 18th, at present, more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the current vaccination rate of one dose in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other places is less than 50%.</p><p>At the same time, Biden pointed out that the new crown variant virus is a \"serious problem\" in the United States' fight against the epidemic. The new coronavirus variant will make unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. In the face of high-risk and highly transmissible mutated viruses, complete vaccination is still the \"best way\" to protect yourself.</p><p>\"On July 4th, we will celebrate independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We want everyone to do it,\" Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House revealed that a thousand-person celebration will be held on the South Lawn on Independence Day, inviting medical staff, rescue workers and their families on the front line of the epidemic to attend. This will be the largest event held in the White House since Biden became president.</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccination, and the goal of 70% adult vaccination meets the challenge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccination, and the goal of 70% adult vaccination meets the challenge\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 15:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Fighting novel coronavirus pneumonia) Biden administration completes 300 million doses of vaccine vaccination, 70% of adult vaccination goals meet challenges</p><p>China news agency, June 18 (Reporter Chen Mengtong) US President Biden announced at the White House on the 18th that within 150 days of his appointment, the United States had completed 300 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine vaccination.</p><p>Biden said in a speech on the epidemic that day: \"Compared with last year, the United States is about to usher in a very different summer. A bright and pleasant summer.\"</p><p>According to data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of the 18th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 33.51 million, and the number of deaths reached 601,000. At present, the average number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States in 7 days is about 12,000 and 300.</p><p>Although the epidemic situation has improved significantly, the American people's willingness to vaccinate has decreased, challenging another anti-epidemic goal of the Biden administration. Biden previously proposed that 70% of American adults should receive at least one dose of vaccine by July 4. With 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, this figure is still at 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>\"Pointed out that the above goals may not be achieved until summer. Currently, the seven-day average vaccination volume in the United States is about 1.1 million doses, well below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden noted that areas of the United States with high vaccination rates have seen significant declines in death rates and hospitalizations. \"But unfortunately, in states with low vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not declining in many places. In some places, they are actually rising.\"</p><p>According to the data released by the White House on the 18th, at present, more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the current vaccination rate of one dose in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other places is less than 50%.</p><p>At the same time, Biden pointed out that the new crown variant virus is a \"serious problem\" in the United States' fight against the epidemic. The new coronavirus variant will make unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. In the face of high-risk and highly transmissible mutated viruses, complete vaccination is still the \"best way\" to protect yourself.</p><p>\"On July 4th, we will celebrate independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We want everyone to do it,\" Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House revealed that a thousand-person celebration will be held on the South Lawn on Independence Day, inviting medical staff, rescue workers and their families on the front line of the epidemic to attend. This will be the largest event held in the White House since Biden became president.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26835d2a08742c3de45f524c7bb8604","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144170319","content_text":"（抗击新冠肺炎）拜登政府完成3亿剂疫苗接种 70%成人接种目标迎挑战\n中新社华盛顿6月18日电 （记者 陈孟统）美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。\n拜登当天就疫情发表讲话说：“与去年相比，美国即将迎来一个非常不同的夏天。一个明亮的、愉悦的夏天。”\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学数据，截至18日，美国累计新冠确诊病例超3351万，死亡病例达60.1万。目前，美国7天平均确诊和死亡病例约为1.2万例和300例。\n尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。距离独立日假期还剩15天，但这一数据仍为65.1%。\n《华盛顿邮报》指出，上述目标可能要到夏天才能实现。目前，美国7天平均疫苗接种量约为110万剂，远低于高峰时期的每日330万剂。\n拜登指出，美国疫苗接种率高的地区，死亡率和住院率大幅下降。“但不幸的是，在疫苗接种率较低的州，许多地方的新增病例和住院率并没有下降。在一些地方，实际在上升。”\n白宫18日公布的数据显示，目前，超过1.75亿美国人已至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。而据美国媒体统计，亚拉巴马州、路易斯安那州、密西西比州、田纳西州、怀俄明州等地目前一剂疫苗接种率不足50%。\n拜登同时指出，新冠变异病毒是美国抗击疫情的一个“严重问题”。新冠变异病毒将使未接种疫苗的人比一个月前更加脆弱。面对高危险性、高传播性的变异病毒，完全接种疫苗仍是自我保护的“最佳方法”。\n“7月4日，我们将在欢度独立日的同时，庆祝摆脱疫情而独立。我们希望每个人都能做到。”拜登如是说。\n本周早些时候，白宫对外透露，独立日当天将在南草坪举办千人规模的庆祝活动，邀请在抗疫一线的医务人员、救援人员及其家人参加。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059722076,"gmtCreate":1654438625895,"gmtModify":1676535447538,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gu","listText":"Gu","text":"Gu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059722076","repostId":"1111513232","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111513232","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654406018,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111513232?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-05 13:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The culmination of prosperity? US consumption, how far can it go","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111513232","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"眼下，政策退潮大势所趋，就业市场景气犹在，消费“繁荣”能否延续？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Authors: Zhao Wei, Cao Jinqiu, Sinolink Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Summary:</b></p><p><b>The \"appearance\" of nominal consumption in the United States? Commodity consumption remains high, while service consumption recovery lags behind</b></p><p><b>Overall, private consumption expenditure and retail sales data in the United States in April were very strong.</b>After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, private consumption in the United States was once hit hard, and the nominal year-on-year growth rate once fell to-16.1%. As the U.S. government implements large-scale financial subsidies to residents and the impact of the epidemic on the economy tends to weaken, the compound growth rate of private consumption in the United States rose to 6% in April, far exceeding the average of 3.9% in the past 10 years. At the same time, another important consumption indicator, the compound growth rate of retail sales rose to 9.9% in April, which is also much higher than the average level of the past 10 years.</p><p><b>In terms of structure, commodity consumption remains high, and the recovery of service consumption lags behind.</b>In terms of commodities, the compound growth rate of durable goods consumption fell back to 13.3%, which is still at a high level, and the compound growth rate of non-durable goods consumption was 8.1%, which also remained at a high level. Among them, except for individual commodities such as home appliances, the consumption of most commodities is very eye-catching. Compared with commodities, the compound growth rate of service consumption is \"only\" 4.1%, and the recovery is obviously lagging behind. In terms of industries, consumption such as medical care has exceeded the pre-epidemic level, but consumption of catering, accommodation and entertainment has not yet been restored to the pre-epidemic level.</p><p><b>The \"Truth\" About Actual Consumption in America? Commodity consumption fell from its high level, while service consumption maintained a weak recovery</b></p><p><b>Historically, the nominal and actual consumption trends in the United States are basically the same, but there has been a significant differentiation recently.</b>The continued high inflation reading in the United States has obviously interfered with the stable relationship between nominal and real consumption, resulting in a clear differentiation between the two. After excluding inflation factors, the compound growth rate of actual consumption in the United States recorded 2.5% in April, slightly exceeding the average level of the 10 years before the epidemic. Retail sales. After excluding inflation factors, the actual year-on-year growth rate of U.S. retail sales in April was only 2.3%, which also slightly exceeded the average level of the 10 years before the epidemic.</p><p><b>In terms of structure, actual commodity consumption has fallen from a high level, but it is still high, and service consumption has maintained a relatively weak recovery trend.</b>Under high inflation, the compound growth rate of actual consumption of durable goods in the United States in April was 9.5%, which was still higher than the average level of 6.1% in the 10 years before the epidemic. The compound growth rate of automobiles and building materials was at historically low levels. In terms of non-durable goods, the compound growth rate was recorded at 4.1%, which was also higher than the average level of 2.1% in the 10 years before the epidemic. Compared with the decline in commodity consumption from a high level, the compound growth rate of actual service consumption in April was only 0.9%, maintaining a relatively weak recovery trend.</p><p><b>Where does U.S. consumption go from here? Service consumption \"takes the lead\", and the \"erosion effect\" of inflation needs to be vigilant</b></p><p><b>Residents' salary increase and employment recovery have exceeded expectations, and under the scenario recovery, the growth of service consumption can be expected and is expected to support overall consumption, but it should be noted that the pressure of service inflation continues to accumulate.</b>As a leading indicator of service consumption in the United States, residents' salary increases and employment recovery continue to exceed expectations and have entered a virtuous circle. Under the background of the ebb tide of the epidemic, whether the consumption of services such as leisure and entertainment can be significantly boosted in the peak travel season will also be a \"touchstone\" to test the quality of consumption. However, it should be noted that the recovery of service consumption demand may bring about a further release of inflationary pressure.</p><p><b>Under the background of stimulus ebb tide and rate hike, durable goods consumption is coming to an end or coming to an end; Consumption of non-durable goods may remain stable, but we need to be alert to the \"erosion effect\" of inflation.</b>After the epidemic, the pre-characteristics of durable goods consumption in the United States are obvious, with \"excess\" consumption exceeding US $430 billion, equivalent to nearly 30% of durable goods consumption in 2019. Under the background of stimulus ebb and rate hike, the demand for interest rate-sensitive durable goods such as automobiles may be suppressed. In terms of non-durable goods, rigid demand may support stable consumption, but we need to be alert to the intensification of the \"erosion effect\" of high inflation on non-durable goods.</p><p>Body:</p><p>1. The \"appearance\" of nominal consumption in the United States? Commodity consumption remains high, while service consumption recovery lags behind</p><p><b>Overall, U.S. private consumption spending in April and the latest April retail sales</b>①<b>The data and performance are very strong.</b>After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, as the \"ballast stone\" of the US economy, private consumption once suffered heavy losses, and the nominal year-on-year growth rate once fell to-16.1%. As the U.S. government implements large-scale financial subsidies to residents and the impact of the epidemic on the economy tends to weaken, the compound growth rate of U.S. private consumption ② has recovered to an extremely high level of 6%, far exceeding the average of 3.9% in the past 10 years. At the same time, another important consumption indicator, the compound growth rate of retail sales rose to 9.9% in April, which is also much higher than the average level of 4.3% in the past 10 years.</p><p>① Private consumption is a measure of consumer spending by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. It is a more comprehensive indicator of consumer spending than retail sales, and it is also the largest component of GDP (accounting for about 70%). Retail sales are survey data obtained by the U.S. Commerce Census Bureau through interviews with thousands of retailers, which mainly reflect changes in nominal consumption (mainly commodity consumption).</p><p>② In order to eliminate the interference of base effect, the data in 2021 and beyond are based on the data of the same period in 2019, and then the compound growth rate is calculated, the same below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5a00fdddba22296419e080671efcce\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21500bfb02edb9bb0cd689da22576615\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of commodities, the growth rate of durable goods consumption has slowed down, but remained high, and the growth rate of non-durable goods consumption has continued to recover.</b>Commodity consumption can be further split into durable goods and non-durable goods consumption. The former mainly includes automobiles, furniture, household appliances and other commodities with a service life of more than 3 years, while the latter mainly includes relatively consumable commodities such as food, clothing, and energy products. Specifically, April data showed that the compound growth rate of durable goods consumption dropped from the previous high of 20% to 13.3%, which is still at a high level; The compound growth rate of non-durable goods consumption is as high as 8.1%. Against the background of the continued expansion of commodity consumption, the proportion of durable goods and non-durable goods consumption in private consumption has increased from 11% and 20% before the epidemic to 13% and 22% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b600d905e75b26bd815dd46bf39e3f65\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0785710933970579a74fc15e388436f\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of structure, except for individual commodities such as home appliances, the consumption of most commodities is very eye-catching.</b>The sub-indicator of retail sales mainly reflects the consumption expenditure of American residents on goods. In terms of structure, the retail sales of motor vehicle and parts stores, non-store retail, daily necessities, and gas stations are relatively high, accounting for 20%, 16%, 12%, and 9% of the total retail sales respectively. Based on retail sales data, except for the low growth rate of retail sales of individual commodities such as home appliances, the compound growth rate of consumption of most commodities such as automobiles, furniture, clothing, and food remains high, basically at the historical percentile. More than 75%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9c2d64e5f153f86fed7e3721cbd225a\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17869c23d4ef58a10040a344306a412d\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1722b188ffe336c69166cab2f474075\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3232273c2b0ef73962a527c14cdb94c\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of service consumption, the consumption of medical care and other services has exceeded the pre-epidemic level, and the consumption of catering and other services has not yet been restored to the pre-epidemic level.</b>The repeated epidemic situation in the early stage obviously interfered with the recovery process of service consumption. Judging from the data in April, compared with the compound growth rate of commodity consumption of 9.9%, the compound growth rate of service consumption is \"only\" 4.1%, and the recovery is obviously lagging behind. In order to describe service consumption more comprehensively, we use credit card consumption data to capture the changes of service consumption sub-items. Credit card consumption data shows that the consumption of maintenance (family management) and outpatient health care (medical services) has exceeded the pre-epidemic level. Catering consumption, etc., because the indoor mask order was released relatively late, related consumption activities have not yet been restored to pre-epidemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce51dab39d446354be1442b3a00818a9\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5057371f89a45e8b2c24947d948ffef\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d262cf4300ba4e77efcc2ab8fe1ec45\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"656\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/824422748d70225488b30a02c3281d46\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb4d6f9ac13c71a0074592c7a8919351\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>2. The \"truth\" of actual consumption in the United States? Commodity consumption fell from its high level, while service consumption maintained a weak recovery</p><p><b>Historically, the nominal and actual consumption trends in the United States are basically the same, but there has been a significant differentiation recently.</b>The continued high inflation reading in the United States has obviously interfered with the stable relationship between nominal and real consumption, resulting in a clear differentiation between the two. After excluding inflation, the actual consumption level in the United States is not as strong as the nominal statistics. The actual compound growth rate in April recorded 2.5%, slightly higher than the average level of 2.2% in the 10 years before the epidemic. After excluding inflation factors, the actual year-on-year growth rate of U.S. retail sales in April was only 2.3%, which also slightly exceeded the average level of the 10 years before the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5380f9766531eac5ffc32f0c834a9441\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a4b11564b1b863d8d25452f8b2b1e01\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of durable goods, under the high inflation and beautiful nominal data, the actual consumption of durable goods has dropped sharply.</b>After excluding inflation factors, the compound growth rate of actual consumption of durable goods in the United States recorded 9.5% in April, a sharp drop from the previous high of 18.9%, but still higher than the average level of 6.1% in the 10 years before the epidemic. From the structural point of view, contrary to the nominal growth rate, the actual compound growth rate of retail sales of major durable goods such as home appliances, furniture, automobiles, and building materials has dropped sharply, reaching 30%, 28%, 8%, and 5% of the historical percentile respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dacea5cb4090d85a9678c7bb963d8c3\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cfe4ff3933fc76ff02e78903c74d60\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/712b63ad80c741d1e26e3240603c0ece\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656cd766f77935dce43cb7695066de74\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of non-durable goods, the actual consumption growth rate is not as strong as the nominal growth rate, and the overall trend remains stable.</b>After excluding inflation, the compound growth rate of actual consumption of non-durable goods in the United States recorded 4.1% in April, which was also significantly lower than the previous high of 7.1%, but also higher than the average level of 2.1% in the 10 years before the epidemic. From the historical trend, unlike durable goods consumption, non-durable goods mostly correspond to rigid consumption demand, and their proportion in actual total consumption is generally stable at just over 20%. According to the breakdown data, the actual retail sales of clothing stores, sports goods stores, daily necessities shopping malls, etc. compounded year-on-year, basically maintaining a stable trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33cf10f55e97d525058774b85d1f1e66\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29d991fbfe58d57edc2927c2fc78e365\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Compared with the decline in commodity consumption from a high level, actual service consumption showed a relatively weak recovery trend.</b>PCE prices in the United States reached 6.3% year-on-year in April, much higher than the average level of less than 2% in previous years. Among them, there is a wide gap in inflationary pressures between goods and services. In April, the prices of durable goods and non-durable goods reached 8.4% and 10.1% year-on-year respectively; Relatively speaking, service prices were \"only\" 4.6% year-on-year. The reason is that, unlike the hot demand for commodity consumption, the demand for service consumption is restricted by factors such as repeated epidemics, and the actual compound growth rate is only 0.9%. Among them, in addition to the relatively rigid service consumption compound such as household operations and medical care, which remained positive year-on-year, the non-essential service consumption compound such as transportation and entertainment was still in a negative range year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab5b7dada9958b6b1f554aa44b1f68c\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35a788270cf5c3fcd9559c13589eb53\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481df1ade1365c9cb0ab6c3c1389017b\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa2f198bf75ba91ce0883d2a6a733d1\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>3. Where will American consumption go from here? Service consumption \"takes the lead\", and the \"erosion effect\" of inflation needs to be vigilant</p><p><b>As a leading indicator of service consumption, wage increase and employment restoration continue to exceed expectations and have entered a virtuous circle.</b>Historical review shows that the year-on-year trend of total salary income in the United States is synchronized or weakly ahead of consumption, especially service consumption, while the former mainly depends on the employment boom. At present, the number of job vacancies in the United States has been higher than 10 million for eight consecutive months, indicating that the labor supply still does not fully meet the demand. Under the strong demand for recruitment, \"post-epidemic trauma\" will still restrict labor supply and aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand, forcing enterprises to significantly raise wages and recruit people. Private salary income maintains high growth, which will provide strong support for service consumption<b>(For a detailed analysis of the U.S. job market, see How Far Is the U.S. Recession From the Job Market?).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73210cd580833cc7f145d3d9deee9fd4\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41058b422ed72e2da4812046a7b74ff5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca21b2ca421b226252a91c4dce72d128\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d584172e5d7105dd60d2bfbded328ae\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Coupled with the need for natural restoration of offline consumption after the epidemic, further recovery of service consumption can be expected.</b>Under the rapid expansion of commodity consumption, the proportion of service consumption in total consumption has dropped to 60.6%, which is more than 3 percentage points lower than before the epidemic, and there is a lot of room for repair. More importantly, under the background of the ebb of the epidemic in the United States, whether the consumption of leisure, entertainment, catering, accommodation and other services can be significantly boosted during the peak travel season will also be an important perspective to test the quality of American consumption. It should also be noted that the recovery of service consumption demand may bring about a further release of inflationary pressures. Taking history as a mirror, changes in service-side inflation in the United States often determine the overall inflation center level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77196fac6955c9af8fac0ba78b69226f\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/610bf343aa3487bea9028c09b3003fe0\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a32bf9eacf293bd27b7e87907c86b42\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23dc2a06fc604b0018ae9f2062017107\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Post-epidemic durable goods consumption has obvious pre-characteristics. Considering the suppression of related consumer demand due to the ebb of policies, the high growth in durable goods consumption may be coming to an end.</b>The high increase in durable goods consumption in the United States after the epidemic is inseparable from the large-scale fiscal subsidies and low interest rate environment. However, based on historical experience, this round of durable goods consumption has significant pre-characteristics. \"Excess\" durable goods consumption may exceed US $430 billion, equivalent to nearly 30% of durable goods consumption in 2019. Under the background of fiscal ebb and Federal Reserve rate hike, consumer demand for interest-rate-sensitive durable goods such as automobiles, especially, may be suppressed. The \"frenzy\" of durable goods consumption may be coming to an end, and it needs to be continuously tracked in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d3ca31a2507b2c2850aaf776f288855\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2755b915ca591107259626eceb2f1908\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5593acea5df6195474802c29ba8dfda7\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23a30af70030661a9b0de075d08b219f\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of non-durable goods, overall consumption may remain stable, but we need to be alert to the intensification of the \"erosion effect\" of high inflation on the consumption of some non-durable goods.</b>Since most of them correspond to rigid consumer demand, the growth rate of durable goods consumption may remain \"tepid\". However, it should be noted that the further recovery of service consumption during the peak travel season, coupled with limited supply, is expected to rise in oil prices, which may further push up inflation. Gasoline retail price data in May shows that the CPI energy commodity sub-item may continue to exceed 40% year-on-year. Referring to Bank of America's consumer survey report, continued energy inflation may have a further \"erosion effect\" on the consumption of some non-durable goods.<b>(For research and judgment on oil price trends, please see \"Why are oil prices\" so calm \"as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine heats up again?\").</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a75ea71a790217d6f04f719f4b243fa\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69649389fc34a7a9128d99ed99ee1795\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ee463234eb865851d8c689a45f9b54\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e8b078725d2c126b417ab9193a93cdb\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>After research, we found that:</b></p><p>(1) Overall, the compound growth rate of private consumption expenditure and retail sales in the United States in April reached 6% and 10.6% respectively, both of which were much higher than the average level of the past 10 years. In terms of structure, the compound growth rate of durable goods consumption fell back to 13.3%, which is still at a high level, and the compound growth rate of non-durable goods consumption was as high as 8.1%, which also remained at a high level. Compared with commodities, the compound growth rate of service consumption is \"only\" 4.1%, and the recovery is obviously lagging behind.</p><p>(2) Historically, the nominal and real consumption trends in the United States are basically the same, but under the disturbance of recent high inflation readings, the two have obviously diverged. In terms of structure, the compound growth rate of actual durable goods and non-durable goods consumption has declined, but they are still at historical highs. Compared with the decline in commodity consumption from a high level, the compound growth rate of actual service consumption in April was only 0.9%, maintaining a relatively weak recovery trend.</p><p>(3) Residents' salary increase and employment restoration have exceeded expectations, and under the scene restoration, the growth of service consumption can be expected and is expected to support overall consumption. However, it should be noted that the recovery of service consumption demand may bring about a further release of inflationary pressure. Under the background of stimulus ebb tide and rate hike, durable goods consumption is coming to an end or coming to an end; Consumption of non-durable goods may remain stable, but we need to be alert to the \"erosion effect\" of inflation.</p><p>Risk warning:</p><p><b>1. The recovery of service consumption in the United States is less than expected.</b>Part of the impact of the epidemic is likely to be long-term, thus reshaping the consumption habits of American residents.</p><p><b>2. The single-month data statistics fluctuate greatly.</b>U.S. private consumption and retail sales data fluctuate greatly in a single month, which may disturb the judgment of future trends.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The culmination of prosperity? US consumption, how far can it go</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe culmination of prosperity? US consumption, how far can it go\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-05 13:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Authors: Zhao Wei, Cao Jinqiu, Sinolink Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Summary:</b></p><p><b>The \"appearance\" of nominal consumption in the United States? Commodity consumption remains high, while service consumption recovery lags behind</b></p><p><b>Overall, private consumption expenditure and retail sales data in the United States in April were very strong.</b>After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, private consumption in the United States was once hit hard, and the nominal year-on-year growth rate once fell to-16.1%. As the U.S. government implements large-scale financial subsidies to residents and the impact of the epidemic on the economy tends to weaken, the compound growth rate of private consumption in the United States rose to 6% in April, far exceeding the average of 3.9% in the past 10 years. At the same time, another important consumption indicator, the compound growth rate of retail sales rose to 9.9% in April, which is also much higher than the average level of the past 10 years.</p><p><b>In terms of structure, commodity consumption remains high, and the recovery of service consumption lags behind.</b>In terms of commodities, the compound growth rate of durable goods consumption fell back to 13.3%, which is still at a high level, and the compound growth rate of non-durable goods consumption was 8.1%, which also remained at a high level. Among them, except for individual commodities such as home appliances, the consumption of most commodities is very eye-catching. Compared with commodities, the compound growth rate of service consumption is \"only\" 4.1%, and the recovery is obviously lagging behind. In terms of industries, consumption such as medical care has exceeded the pre-epidemic level, but consumption of catering, accommodation and entertainment has not yet been restored to the pre-epidemic level.</p><p><b>The \"Truth\" About Actual Consumption in America? Commodity consumption fell from its high level, while service consumption maintained a weak recovery</b></p><p><b>Historically, the nominal and actual consumption trends in the United States are basically the same, but there has been a significant differentiation recently.</b>The continued high inflation reading in the United States has obviously interfered with the stable relationship between nominal and real consumption, resulting in a clear differentiation between the two. After excluding inflation factors, the compound growth rate of actual consumption in the United States recorded 2.5% in April, slightly exceeding the average level of the 10 years before the epidemic. Retail sales. After excluding inflation factors, the actual year-on-year growth rate of U.S. retail sales in April was only 2.3%, which also slightly exceeded the average level of the 10 years before the epidemic.</p><p><b>In terms of structure, actual commodity consumption has fallen from a high level, but it is still high, and service consumption has maintained a relatively weak recovery trend.</b>Under high inflation, the compound growth rate of actual consumption of durable goods in the United States in April was 9.5%, which was still higher than the average level of 6.1% in the 10 years before the epidemic. The compound growth rate of automobiles and building materials was at historically low levels. In terms of non-durable goods, the compound growth rate was recorded at 4.1%, which was also higher than the average level of 2.1% in the 10 years before the epidemic. Compared with the decline in commodity consumption from a high level, the compound growth rate of actual service consumption in April was only 0.9%, maintaining a relatively weak recovery trend.</p><p><b>Where does U.S. consumption go from here? Service consumption \"takes the lead\", and the \"erosion effect\" of inflation needs to be vigilant</b></p><p><b>Residents' salary increase and employment recovery have exceeded expectations, and under the scenario recovery, the growth of service consumption can be expected and is expected to support overall consumption, but it should be noted that the pressure of service inflation continues to accumulate.</b>As a leading indicator of service consumption in the United States, residents' salary increases and employment recovery continue to exceed expectations and have entered a virtuous circle. Under the background of the ebb tide of the epidemic, whether the consumption of services such as leisure and entertainment can be significantly boosted in the peak travel season will also be a \"touchstone\" to test the quality of consumption. However, it should be noted that the recovery of service consumption demand may bring about a further release of inflationary pressure.</p><p><b>Under the background of stimulus ebb tide and rate hike, durable goods consumption is coming to an end or coming to an end; Consumption of non-durable goods may remain stable, but we need to be alert to the \"erosion effect\" of inflation.</b>After the epidemic, the pre-characteristics of durable goods consumption in the United States are obvious, with \"excess\" consumption exceeding US $430 billion, equivalent to nearly 30% of durable goods consumption in 2019. Under the background of stimulus ebb and rate hike, the demand for interest rate-sensitive durable goods such as automobiles may be suppressed. In terms of non-durable goods, rigid demand may support stable consumption, but we need to be alert to the intensification of the \"erosion effect\" of high inflation on non-durable goods.</p><p>Body:</p><p>1. The \"appearance\" of nominal consumption in the United States? Commodity consumption remains high, while service consumption recovery lags behind</p><p><b>Overall, U.S. private consumption spending in April and the latest April retail sales</b>①<b>The data and performance are very strong.</b>After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, as the \"ballast stone\" of the US economy, private consumption once suffered heavy losses, and the nominal year-on-year growth rate once fell to-16.1%. As the U.S. government implements large-scale financial subsidies to residents and the impact of the epidemic on the economy tends to weaken, the compound growth rate of U.S. private consumption ② has recovered to an extremely high level of 6%, far exceeding the average of 3.9% in the past 10 years. At the same time, another important consumption indicator, the compound growth rate of retail sales rose to 9.9% in April, which is also much higher than the average level of 4.3% in the past 10 years.</p><p>① Private consumption is a measure of consumer spending by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. It is a more comprehensive indicator of consumer spending than retail sales, and it is also the largest component of GDP (accounting for about 70%). Retail sales are survey data obtained by the U.S. Commerce Census Bureau through interviews with thousands of retailers, which mainly reflect changes in nominal consumption (mainly commodity consumption).</p><p>② In order to eliminate the interference of base effect, the data in 2021 and beyond are based on the data of the same period in 2019, and then the compound growth rate is calculated, the same below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5a00fdddba22296419e080671efcce\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21500bfb02edb9bb0cd689da22576615\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of commodities, the growth rate of durable goods consumption has slowed down, but remained high, and the growth rate of non-durable goods consumption has continued to recover.</b>Commodity consumption can be further split into durable goods and non-durable goods consumption. The former mainly includes automobiles, furniture, household appliances and other commodities with a service life of more than 3 years, while the latter mainly includes relatively consumable commodities such as food, clothing, and energy products. Specifically, April data showed that the compound growth rate of durable goods consumption dropped from the previous high of 20% to 13.3%, which is still at a high level; The compound growth rate of non-durable goods consumption is as high as 8.1%. Against the background of the continued expansion of commodity consumption, the proportion of durable goods and non-durable goods consumption in private consumption has increased from 11% and 20% before the epidemic to 13% and 22% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b600d905e75b26bd815dd46bf39e3f65\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0785710933970579a74fc15e388436f\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of structure, except for individual commodities such as home appliances, the consumption of most commodities is very eye-catching.</b>The sub-indicator of retail sales mainly reflects the consumption expenditure of American residents on goods. In terms of structure, the retail sales of motor vehicle and parts stores, non-store retail, daily necessities, and gas stations are relatively high, accounting for 20%, 16%, 12%, and 9% of the total retail sales respectively. Based on retail sales data, except for the low growth rate of retail sales of individual commodities such as home appliances, the compound growth rate of consumption of most commodities such as automobiles, furniture, clothing, and food remains high, basically at the historical percentile. More than 75%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9c2d64e5f153f86fed7e3721cbd225a\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17869c23d4ef58a10040a344306a412d\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1722b188ffe336c69166cab2f474075\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3232273c2b0ef73962a527c14cdb94c\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of service consumption, the consumption of medical care and other services has exceeded the pre-epidemic level, and the consumption of catering and other services has not yet been restored to the pre-epidemic level.</b>The repeated epidemic situation in the early stage obviously interfered with the recovery process of service consumption. Judging from the data in April, compared with the compound growth rate of commodity consumption of 9.9%, the compound growth rate of service consumption is \"only\" 4.1%, and the recovery is obviously lagging behind. In order to describe service consumption more comprehensively, we use credit card consumption data to capture the changes of service consumption sub-items. Credit card consumption data shows that the consumption of maintenance (family management) and outpatient health care (medical services) has exceeded the pre-epidemic level. Catering consumption, etc., because the indoor mask order was released relatively late, related consumption activities have not yet been restored to pre-epidemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce51dab39d446354be1442b3a00818a9\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5057371f89a45e8b2c24947d948ffef\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d262cf4300ba4e77efcc2ab8fe1ec45\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"656\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/824422748d70225488b30a02c3281d46\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb4d6f9ac13c71a0074592c7a8919351\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>2. The \"truth\" of actual consumption in the United States? Commodity consumption fell from its high level, while service consumption maintained a weak recovery</p><p><b>Historically, the nominal and actual consumption trends in the United States are basically the same, but there has been a significant differentiation recently.</b>The continued high inflation reading in the United States has obviously interfered with the stable relationship between nominal and real consumption, resulting in a clear differentiation between the two. After excluding inflation, the actual consumption level in the United States is not as strong as the nominal statistics. The actual compound growth rate in April recorded 2.5%, slightly higher than the average level of 2.2% in the 10 years before the epidemic. After excluding inflation factors, the actual year-on-year growth rate of U.S. retail sales in April was only 2.3%, which also slightly exceeded the average level of the 10 years before the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5380f9766531eac5ffc32f0c834a9441\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a4b11564b1b863d8d25452f8b2b1e01\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of durable goods, under the high inflation and beautiful nominal data, the actual consumption of durable goods has dropped sharply.</b>After excluding inflation factors, the compound growth rate of actual consumption of durable goods in the United States recorded 9.5% in April, a sharp drop from the previous high of 18.9%, but still higher than the average level of 6.1% in the 10 years before the epidemic. From the structural point of view, contrary to the nominal growth rate, the actual compound growth rate of retail sales of major durable goods such as home appliances, furniture, automobiles, and building materials has dropped sharply, reaching 30%, 28%, 8%, and 5% of the historical percentile respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dacea5cb4090d85a9678c7bb963d8c3\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cfe4ff3933fc76ff02e78903c74d60\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/712b63ad80c741d1e26e3240603c0ece\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656cd766f77935dce43cb7695066de74\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of non-durable goods, the actual consumption growth rate is not as strong as the nominal growth rate, and the overall trend remains stable.</b>After excluding inflation, the compound growth rate of actual consumption of non-durable goods in the United States recorded 4.1% in April, which was also significantly lower than the previous high of 7.1%, but also higher than the average level of 2.1% in the 10 years before the epidemic. From the historical trend, unlike durable goods consumption, non-durable goods mostly correspond to rigid consumption demand, and their proportion in actual total consumption is generally stable at just over 20%. According to the breakdown data, the actual retail sales of clothing stores, sports goods stores, daily necessities shopping malls, etc. compounded year-on-year, basically maintaining a stable trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33cf10f55e97d525058774b85d1f1e66\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29d991fbfe58d57edc2927c2fc78e365\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Compared with the decline in commodity consumption from a high level, actual service consumption showed a relatively weak recovery trend.</b>PCE prices in the United States reached 6.3% year-on-year in April, much higher than the average level of less than 2% in previous years. Among them, there is a wide gap in inflationary pressures between goods and services. In April, the prices of durable goods and non-durable goods reached 8.4% and 10.1% year-on-year respectively; Relatively speaking, service prices were \"only\" 4.6% year-on-year. The reason is that, unlike the hot demand for commodity consumption, the demand for service consumption is restricted by factors such as repeated epidemics, and the actual compound growth rate is only 0.9%. Among them, in addition to the relatively rigid service consumption compound such as household operations and medical care, which remained positive year-on-year, the non-essential service consumption compound such as transportation and entertainment was still in a negative range year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab5b7dada9958b6b1f554aa44b1f68c\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35a788270cf5c3fcd9559c13589eb53\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481df1ade1365c9cb0ab6c3c1389017b\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa2f198bf75ba91ce0883d2a6a733d1\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>3. Where will American consumption go from here? Service consumption \"takes the lead\", and the \"erosion effect\" of inflation needs to be vigilant</p><p><b>As a leading indicator of service consumption, wage increase and employment restoration continue to exceed expectations and have entered a virtuous circle.</b>Historical review shows that the year-on-year trend of total salary income in the United States is synchronized or weakly ahead of consumption, especially service consumption, while the former mainly depends on the employment boom. At present, the number of job vacancies in the United States has been higher than 10 million for eight consecutive months, indicating that the labor supply still does not fully meet the demand. Under the strong demand for recruitment, \"post-epidemic trauma\" will still restrict labor supply and aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand, forcing enterprises to significantly raise wages and recruit people. Private salary income maintains high growth, which will provide strong support for service consumption<b>(For a detailed analysis of the U.S. job market, see How Far Is the U.S. Recession From the Job Market?).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73210cd580833cc7f145d3d9deee9fd4\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41058b422ed72e2da4812046a7b74ff5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca21b2ca421b226252a91c4dce72d128\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d584172e5d7105dd60d2bfbded328ae\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Coupled with the need for natural restoration of offline consumption after the epidemic, further recovery of service consumption can be expected.</b>Under the rapid expansion of commodity consumption, the proportion of service consumption in total consumption has dropped to 60.6%, which is more than 3 percentage points lower than before the epidemic, and there is a lot of room for repair. More importantly, under the background of the ebb of the epidemic in the United States, whether the consumption of leisure, entertainment, catering, accommodation and other services can be significantly boosted during the peak travel season will also be an important perspective to test the quality of American consumption. It should also be noted that the recovery of service consumption demand may bring about a further release of inflationary pressures. Taking history as a mirror, changes in service-side inflation in the United States often determine the overall inflation center level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77196fac6955c9af8fac0ba78b69226f\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/610bf343aa3487bea9028c09b3003fe0\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a32bf9eacf293bd27b7e87907c86b42\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23dc2a06fc604b0018ae9f2062017107\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Post-epidemic durable goods consumption has obvious pre-characteristics. Considering the suppression of related consumer demand due to the ebb of policies, the high growth in durable goods consumption may be coming to an end.</b>The high increase in durable goods consumption in the United States after the epidemic is inseparable from the large-scale fiscal subsidies and low interest rate environment. However, based on historical experience, this round of durable goods consumption has significant pre-characteristics. \"Excess\" durable goods consumption may exceed US $430 billion, equivalent to nearly 30% of durable goods consumption in 2019. Under the background of fiscal ebb and Federal Reserve rate hike, consumer demand for interest-rate-sensitive durable goods such as automobiles, especially, may be suppressed. The \"frenzy\" of durable goods consumption may be coming to an end, and it needs to be continuously tracked in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d3ca31a2507b2c2850aaf776f288855\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2755b915ca591107259626eceb2f1908\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5593acea5df6195474802c29ba8dfda7\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23a30af70030661a9b0de075d08b219f\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of non-durable goods, overall consumption may remain stable, but we need to be alert to the intensification of the \"erosion effect\" of high inflation on the consumption of some non-durable goods.</b>Since most of them correspond to rigid consumer demand, the growth rate of durable goods consumption may remain \"tepid\". However, it should be noted that the further recovery of service consumption during the peak travel season, coupled with limited supply, is expected to rise in oil prices, which may further push up inflation. Gasoline retail price data in May shows that the CPI energy commodity sub-item may continue to exceed 40% year-on-year. Referring to Bank of America's consumer survey report, continued energy inflation may have a further \"erosion effect\" on the consumption of some non-durable goods.<b>(For research and judgment on oil price trends, please see \"Why are oil prices\" so calm \"as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine heats up again?\").</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a75ea71a790217d6f04f719f4b243fa\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69649389fc34a7a9128d99ed99ee1795\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ee463234eb865851d8c689a45f9b54\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e8b078725d2c126b417ab9193a93cdb\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>After research, we found that:</b></p><p>(1) Overall, the compound growth rate of private consumption expenditure and retail sales in the United States in April reached 6% and 10.6% respectively, both of which were much higher than the average level of the past 10 years. In terms of structure, the compound growth rate of durable goods consumption fell back to 13.3%, which is still at a high level, and the compound growth rate of non-durable goods consumption was as high as 8.1%, which also remained at a high level. Compared with commodities, the compound growth rate of service consumption is \"only\" 4.1%, and the recovery is obviously lagging behind.</p><p>(2) Historically, the nominal and real consumption trends in the United States are basically the same, but under the disturbance of recent high inflation readings, the two have obviously diverged. In terms of structure, the compound growth rate of actual durable goods and non-durable goods consumption has declined, but they are still at historical highs. Compared with the decline in commodity consumption from a high level, the compound growth rate of actual service consumption in April was only 0.9%, maintaining a relatively weak recovery trend.</p><p>(3) Residents' salary increase and employment restoration have exceeded expectations, and under the scene restoration, the growth of service consumption can be expected and is expected to support overall consumption. However, it should be noted that the recovery of service consumption demand may bring about a further release of inflationary pressure. Under the background of stimulus ebb tide and rate hike, durable goods consumption is coming to an end or coming to an end; Consumption of non-durable goods may remain stable, but we need to be alert to the \"erosion effect\" of inflation.</p><p>Risk warning:</p><p><b>1. The recovery of service consumption in the United States is less than expected.</b>Part of the impact of the epidemic is likely to be long-term, thus reshaping the consumption habits of American residents.</p><p><b>2. The single-month data statistics fluctuate greatly.</b>U.S. private consumption and retail sales data fluctuate greatly in a single month, which may disturb the judgment of future trends.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661102\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/987ab6715591b2ad7014d2cf9348920e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661102","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1111513232","content_text":"作者：国金证券研究所赵伟、曹金丘摘要：美国名义消费的“表象”？商品消费维持高位，服务消费修复相对滞后整体来看，美国4月私人消费支出及零售销售数据，表现都非常强劲。2020年疫情爆发后，美国私人消费一度遭受重创，名义同比增速一度跌至-16.1%。伴随着美国政府对居民实施大规模财政补贴，以及疫情对经济的影响趋于弱化，美国4月私人消费复合增速升至6%，远超近10年均值的3.9%。同时，另一重要的消费指标，零售销售复合增速在4月升至9.9%，也远高于近10年均值水平。分结构来看，商品消费维持高位，服务消费修复相对滞后。商品方面，耐用品消费复合增速回落至13.3%，依然处于高位，非耐用品消费复合增速为8.1%，同样维持高位。其中，除了家电等个别商品，绝大部分商品消费都非常亮眼。相比商品，服务消费复合增速“仅为”4.1%、修复明显滞后。分行业来看，医疗护理等消费已经超过疫情前水平，但餐饮住宿、娱乐消费等尚未修复至疫情前水平。美国实际消费的“真相”？商品消费自高位回落，服务消费维持弱复苏从历史上来看，美国名义、实际消费走势基本一致，但近期出现明显分化。美国通胀读数的持续高企，很明显干扰了名义、实际消费之间走势的稳健关系，导致二者出现了明显分化。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月实际消费复合增速录得2.5%，略超疫情前10年均值水平。零售销售方面。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月零售销售实际同比增速也仅为2.3%，同样略超疫情前10年均值水平。分结构来看，实际商品消费已从高位回落、但依然高企，服务消费维持相对弱复苏态势。通胀高企下，美国4月耐用品实际消费复合增速9.5%，仍高于疫情前10年均值水平的6.1%，汽车、建材等复合增速均处于历史低位。非耐用品方面，复合增速录得4.1%，也高于疫情前10年均值水平的2.1%。相比起商品消费从高位回落，4月实际服务消费复合增速仅录得0.9%，维持相对弱复苏态势。美国消费将何去何从？服务消费“挑大梁”，通胀的“侵蚀效应”需警惕居民薪资提升与就业修复超预期，以及场景修复下，服务消费增长可期、有望支撑整体消费，但需留意服务通胀压力继续累积。作为美国服务消费的领先指标，居民薪资提升与就业修复，持续超预期且已进入良性循环。疫情退潮背景下，休闲娱乐等服务消费的能否在出行旺季获得明显提振，也将是检验消费成色的“试金石”。但需留意的是，服务消费需求复苏，或将带来通胀压力的进一步释放。刺激退潮及加息背景下，耐用品消费前置或行近尾声；非耐用品消费或维持平稳，但需警惕通胀的“侵蚀效应”。疫后美国耐用品消费前置特征显著，“超额”消费或超4300亿美元，相当于2019年耐用品消费的近3成。刺激退潮及加息背景下，汽车等利率敏感型耐用品的需求，或将受到抑制。非耐用品方面，刚性需求或将支撑消费平稳，但需警惕高通胀对非耐用品的“侵蚀效应”加剧凸显。正文：1、美国名义消费的“表象”？商品消费维持高位，服务消费修复相对滞后整体来看，美国4月私人消费支出及最新的4月零售销售①数据，表现都非常强劲。2020年疫情爆发后，作为美国经济的“压舱石”，私人消费一度遭受重创，名义同比增速一度跌至-16.1%。伴随着美国政府对居民实施大规模财政补贴，以及疫情对经济的影响趋于弱化，美国私人消费复合增速②修复至6%的极高水平，远超近10年均值的3.9%。与此同时，另一重要的消费指标，零售销售复合增速在4月升至9.9%，同样远高于近10年均值水平的4.3%。①私人消费是美国经济分析局对消费者支出的测度，是比零售销售更全面的消费者支出指标，也是GDP的最大组成部分（占比约7成）。零售销售是美国商务普查局通过访问数千家零售商得到的调查数据，主要反映名义消费（主要是商品消费）的变化。②为剔除基数效应的干扰，2021年及以后的数据均以2019年同期数据为基准，进而计算复合增速，下同。商品方面，耐用品消费增速有所回落、但维持高位，非耐用品消费增速持续修复。商品消费，可进一步拆分为耐用品、非耐用品消费，前者主要包括汽车、家具、家电等使用年限一般超过3年的商品，后者主要包括食品、服装、能源品等相对易耗的商品。具体来看，4月数据显示，耐用品消费复合增速从前期20%的高点回落至13.3%，依然处于高位；非耐用品消费复合增速高达8.1%。商品消费持续扩张下的背景下，耐用品、非耐用品消费占私人消费比重，分别从疫情前的11%、20%增长至13%、22%。分结构来看，除了家电等个别商品，绝大部分商品消费都非常亮眼。零售销售分项指标，主要反应美国居民在商品上的消费支出。分结构来看，机动车辆及零部件店、无店铺零售业、日用品、加油站零售额较高，分别占总零售销售比重为20%、16%、12%、9%。基于零售销售数据来看，除了家电等个别商品零售增速增速较低外，汽车、家具、服装、食品等绝大部分商品消费的复合增速维持高位，基本上都处于历史百分位的75%以上。服务消费方面，医疗护理等服务消费已经超过疫情前水平，餐饮消费等尚未修复至疫情前水平。前期疫情反复，明显干扰了服务消费修复进程。从4月数据来看，相比起高达9.9%的商品消费复合增速，服务消费复合增速“仅为”4.1%、修复明显滞后。为了更全面地刻画服务消费，我们使用信用卡消费数据去捕捉服务消费分项变化。信用卡消费数据显示，维修保养（家庭经营）、门诊保健（医疗服务类）消费已经超过疫情前水平。餐饮消费等，因为室内口罩令放开的相对较晚，相关消费活动尚未修复至疫情前水平。2、美国实际消费的“真相”？商品消费自高位回落，服务消费维持弱复苏从历史上来看，美国名义、实际消费走势基本一致，但近期出现明显分化。美国通胀读数的持续高企，很明显干扰了名义、实际消费之间走势的稳健关系，导致二者出现了明显分化。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国实际消费水平并未如名义统计值那样异常强劲，4月实际复合增速录得2.5%，略高于疫情前10年均值水平的2.2%。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月零售销售实际同比增速也仅为2.3%，同样略超疫情前10年均值水平。耐用品方面，通胀高企下，靓丽的名义数据背后，耐用品实际消费已大幅回落。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月耐用品实际消费复合增速录得9.5%，较前期高点的18.9%大幅回落，不过仍然高于疫情前10年均值水平的6.1%。从结构来看，与名义增速完全相反，家电、家具、汽车、建材等主要耐用品零售额实际复合增速均大幅回落，分别处于历史百分位的30%、28%、8%、5%。非耐用品方面，实际消费增速也不如名义增速般强劲，整体维持平稳态势。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月非耐用品实际消费复合增速录得4.1%，也较前期高点的7.1%明显回落，不过也高于疫情前10年均值水平的2.1%。从历史走势来看，与耐用品消费不同的是，非耐用品由于多对应于刚性消费需求，占实际总消费的比重一般稳定在20%出头。分项数据来看，服装店、运动商品店、日用品商场等实际零售额复合同比，基本上维持平稳走势。相比起商品消费从高位回落，实际服务消费呈现相对弱复苏态势。美国4月PCE物价同比达到6.3%，远高于往年不足2%的平均水平。其中，商品与服务通胀压力差距悬殊。4月耐用品、非耐用品物价同比分别达到8.4%、10.1%；相对而言，服务物价同比“仅为”4.6%。原因在于，不同于火爆的商品消费需求，服务消费需求受到疫情反复等因素的制约，实际复合增速仅仅录得0.9%。其中，除了家庭运营、医疗等相对刚性的服务消费复合同比维持正值，交运、娱乐等非必要的服务消费复合同比仍在负值区间。3、美国消费将何去何从？服务消费“挑大梁”，通胀的“侵蚀效应”需警惕作为服务消费的领先指标，薪资提升与就业修复，持续超预期且已进入良性循环。历史回溯显示，美国薪酬总收入同比的走势同步或弱领先于消费、尤其是服务消费，而前者主要取决于就业景气。目前来看，美国职位空缺数已连续8个月高于1000万个，表明劳动力供给仍没有充分满足需求。旺盛的招工需求下，“疫后创伤”等仍将制约劳动力供给、加剧供需矛盾，使得企业不得不大幅加薪招人。私人薪酬收入维持高增，将对服务消费提供强力支持（关于美国就业市场的详细分析，请参见《从就业市场，看美国衰退有多远？》）。叠加疫后线下消费自然修复的需要等，服务消费进一步复苏可期。商品消费高速扩张下，服务消费占总消费比重下降至60.6%，较疫情前低出超过3个百分点，存在较大的修复空间。更为重要的是，美国疫情退潮背景下，休闲娱乐、餐饮、住宿等服务消费的能否在出行旺季获得明显提振，也将是检验美国消费成色的重要视角。还需注意的是，服务消费需求复苏，或将带来通胀压力的进一步释放。以史为鉴，美国服务端通胀变化，往往决定整体通胀中枢水平。疫后耐用品消费前置特征显著，再考虑到政策退潮对相关消费需求的抑制，耐用品消费高增或行近尾声。美国疫后耐用品消费高增，与大规模财政补贴、低利率环境密不可分。但基于历史经验来看，本轮耐用品消费前置特征显著，“超额”耐用品消费或超4300亿美元，相当于2019年耐用品消费的近3成。财政退潮、美联储加息背景下，尤其是汽车等利率敏感型耐用品的消费需求，或将受到抑制。耐用品消费前置的“狂热”或行近尾声，未来还需持续跟踪。非耐用品方面，整体消费或维持平稳，但需警惕通胀高企对部分非耐用品消费的“侵蚀效应”加剧凸显。由于大多对应刚性消费需求，耐用品消费增速或将维持“不温不火”。但需注意的是，出行旺季下服务消费的进一步复苏，叠加供给受限，油价上涨可期、或将进一步推升通胀。5月汽油零售价数据显示，CPI能源商品分项同比或将继续超40%。参考美国银行的消费者调查报告来看，持续的能源通胀，可能将对部分非耐用品消费产生进一步的“侵蚀效应”。（关于油价走势研判，请参见《俄乌冲突再升温，油价为何“很淡定”？》）。经过研究，我们发现：（1）整体来看，美国4月私人消费支出及零售销售复合增速，分别达到6%、10.6%，均也远高于近10年均值水平。分结构来看，耐用品消费复合增速回落至13.3%，依然处于高位，非耐用品消费复合增速高达8.1%，同样维持高位。相比商品，服务消费复合增速“仅为”4.1%、修复明显滞后。（2）从历史上来看，美国名义、实际消费走势基本一致，但近期高通胀读数的扰动下，二者出现明显分化。分结构来看，实际耐用品、非耐用品消费复合增速均有所回落，但都仍处于历史高位。相比起商品消费从高位回落，4月实际服务消费复合增速仅录得0.9%，维持相对弱复苏态势。（3）居民薪资提升与就业修复超预期，以及场景修复下，服务消费增长可期、有望支撑整体消费。但需注意的是，服务消费需求复苏，或将带来通胀压力的进一步释放。刺激退潮及加息背景下，耐用品消费前置或行近尾声；非耐用品消费或维持平稳，但需警惕通胀的“侵蚀效应”。风险提示：1、美国服务消费修复不及预期。疫情带来的部分影响有可能长期化，进而重塑美国居民的消费习惯。2、单月数据统计波动较大。美国私人消费、零售销售数据单月波动较大，有可能会扰动对未来趋势的判断。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9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10:43","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng and Feng Liu captured Q2 big bull stocks! There are also tens of billions of private equity holdings plummeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158395460","media":"中国证券报","summary":"数据显示，二季度以来近六成百亿私募隐形重仓股下跌。其中，医药生物行业的隐形重仓股跌幅居前。有百亿私募损失惨重，一只重仓股就带来了约1亿元的浮亏。不过，高毅邓晓峰、冯柳以及少数派投资等，捕获二季度的大牛","content":"<p><div>The data shows that since the second quarter, nearly 60% of the tens of billions of private equity invisible awkwardness stocks have fallen. Among them, the invisible Awkwardness stocks in the pharmaceutical and biological industry were among the top losers. Tens of billions of private equity suffered heavy losses, and a heavily held stock brought about a floating loss of about 100 million yuan. However, Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng, Feng Liu and minority investments captured the big bull stocks in the second quarter. Deng Xiaofeng's Awkwardness shares have soared 47.59%. Since the second quarter, especially after May, the A-share market has shown a rebound trend, with automobiles, military industry, new energy, etc. rebounding significantly. Some tens of billions of invisible awkwardness stocks at the end of the first quarter of private equity also achieved good performance. Among them, private equity tycoons Gao Yi and Deng Xiaofeng...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"zgzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng and Feng Liu captured Q2 big bull stocks! There are also tens of billions of private equity holdings plummeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng and Feng Liu captured Q2 big bull stocks! There are also tens of billions of private equity holdings plummeting\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-04 10:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The data shows that since the second quarter, nearly 60% of the tens of billions of private equity invisible awkwardness stocks have fallen. Among them, the invisible Awkwardness stocks in the pharmaceutical and biological industry were among the top losers. Tens of billions of private equity suffered heavy losses, and a heavily held stock brought about a floating loss of about 100 million yuan. However, Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng, Feng Liu and minority investments captured the big bull stocks in the second quarter. Deng Xiaofeng's Awkwardness shares have soared 47.59%. Since the second quarter, especially after May, the A-share market has shown a rebound trend, with automobiles, military industry, new energy, etc. rebounding significantly. Some tens of billions of invisible awkwardness stocks at the end of the first quarter of private equity also achieved good performance. Among them, private equity tycoons Gao Yi and Deng Xiaofeng...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ\">中国证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数","02333":"长城汽车","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158395460","content_text":"数据显示，二季度以来近六成百亿私募隐形重仓股下跌。其中，医药生物行业的隐形重仓股跌幅居前。有百亿私募损失惨重，一只重仓股就带来了约1亿元的浮亏。不过，高毅邓晓峰、冯柳以及少数派投资等，捕获二季度的大牛股。邓晓峰重仓股大涨47.59%二季度以来，尤其是进入5月之后，A股市场呈现出反弹趋势，汽车、军工、新能源等反弹幅度较大。一些百亿私募一季度末的隐形重仓股，也取得了不俗的表现。其中，私募大佬高毅邓晓峰，就捕获了一只大牛股华秦科技。资料显示，华秦科技成立于1992年，在今年3月初上市，是一家主要从事特种功能材料的军工企业，业务包括隐身材料、伪装材料及防护材料的研发、生产和销售，产品主要应用于重大国防武器装备如飞机、主战坦克、舰船、导弹等。Wind数据显示，一季度末，邓晓峰管理的高毅晓峰2号致信基金和高毅晓峰鸿远集合资金信托计划分别位列华秦科技的第二和第三大流通股东，分别持有86万股和76万股。二季度以来，华秦科技大涨47.59%。高毅旗下另一位私募大佬冯柳管理的高毅邻山1号远望基金，也有一只隐形重仓股龙软科技二季度以来上涨33.18%。龙软科技是一家专注于煤矿基础地理信息系统与专业应用软件开发与销售的煤炭智能开采厂商。高毅邻山1号远望基金自2021年三季度首次进入龙软科技前十大流通股东之列，持股100万股，并一直持有，期间龙软科技股价经历了不小的波动。冯柳管理的高毅邻山1号远望基金的另一只隐形重仓股容知日新，是一家专注于工业互联网领域的工业设备智能运维商。自2021年三季度上市以来披露的定期报告显示，高毅邻山1号远望基金一直是该公司的第一大流通股东。二季度以来，该股上涨超过30%。此外，百亿私募少数派投资、玄元投资和宁波宁聚的隐形重仓股冰川网络，二季度以来实现了48.89%的涨幅。玄元投资重仓的建筑材料公司祁连山，二季度以来上涨了29.01%。邓晓峰持有的爱博医疗、源乐晟持有的明月镜片、清和泉持有的立中集团、盘京投资持有的兰花科创，二季度以来都实现了超过20%的涨幅。近六成隐形重仓股下跌不过，几家欢喜几家愁，有一些百亿私募二季度被隐形重仓股大幅拖累。百亿私募重仓的三只医药生物股普利制药、振东制药和诚达药业，二季度以来跌幅居前，分别下跌37.54%、33.82%和29.66%。其中，一季度末，盘京投资旗下的盛信2期私募证券投资基金重仓普利制药396万股，慎知资产更是重仓该公司近610万股。若二季度没有减持，则两家公司二季度以来在该股票上分别浮亏约6000万和1亿元。整体来看，第三方平台统计的116只百亿私募隐形重仓股中，二季度以来有48只上涨，接近六成下跌。不过，展望后市，不少机构表达了乐观的态度。清和泉资本表示，5月市场受疫情消退、稳增长政策加码、美债冲高回落等影响向上修复。市场经过系统性调整后，悲观情绪得到较大程度释放，相应的市场投资机会越来越多。源乐晟表示，A股市场大概率已经触底，将慢慢走出情绪底部。具体到行业上，首选需求不受疫情影响或在疫情好转后需求可以快速恢复高增长的板块，如光伏、风电、部分制造业等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"02333":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"BND":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059863349,"gmtCreate":1654331587481,"gmtModify":1676535433017,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tgv","listText":"Tgv","text":"Tgv","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059863349","repostId":"1104028566","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059869726,"gmtCreate":1654331570466,"gmtModify":1676535432994,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Vh","listText":"Vh","text":"Vh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059869726","repostId":"1115257762","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115257762","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654327837,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115257762?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 15:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"flywheel\" stalled, Netflix's moat is becoming its ceiling?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115257762","media":"证券市场红周刊","summary":"当新用户增速因为基数巨大而不得不放缓时，奈飞就必须做出二选一的抉择：1.产生大量的自由现金流，证明规模经济；2.可以亏钱，但必须在高基数上持续高速成长。目前看，奈飞两个都做不到。据外媒报道，由于收入增","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>When the growth rate of new users has to slow down due to the huge base, Netflix must make a choice between two: 1. Generate a large amount of free cash flow and prove economies of scale; 2. You can lose money, but you must continue to grow at a high speed on a high base. At present, Netflix can't do either.</p><p>According to foreign media reports, streaming media giant NetFlix announced that it would lay off about 150 employees and some agency contractors due to slowing revenue growth. Its first-quarter financial report released at the end of April showed that its net profit in the first quarter fell by 6% year-on-year, and its new paying users decreased by 200,000. This is also the first time since 2011 that Netflix's paying users have decreased instead of increasing. Under multiple pressures, Netflix's stock price plummeted. So is there a good opportunity for Netflix to deploy on the left? The author believes that if you buy now, the loss limit may be about 20%, but if you consider the capital efficiency, it is difficult to draw a conclusion. In the future, we still need to pay attention to when the growth of its paying users will stabilize and whether the moat of global layout is solid.</p><p><b>\"Flywheel\" Stall Users First Negative Growth</b></p><p>The final equity value of any company is equal to the sum of the cash flows that can be generated in its life cycle projected to the present at an appropriate discount rate. Being a review for Netflix will be very helpful for us to understand this concept.</p><p>In the past, if you wanted to watch a movie, you usually went to a place like a library, borrowed a few boxes of DVDs for a little money, and then took them home to watch them. But because of the emergence of Netflix, DVD rental boss Blockbuster declared bankruptcy in 2011. What Netflix did in the early days was very similar to what Amazon did in the early days, making it possible to rent DVDs online and deliver them to customers' homes, thereby reducing operating costs, giving profits to consumers, and expanding market share.</p><p>Figure 1 An old Blockbuster store</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39c0e8b8f31ff8b893e95f1bebc2dbf6\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Reed Hastings, the founder of Netflix, is a visionary. He observed that with the development of cloud technology and the strengthening of computing power, videos and movies will gradually be delivered in digital form instead of entities in the future. Therefore, he chose to subvert himself and refocus on the streaming media business.</p><p>Many articles say that this is Netflix's \"second growth curve\", but the author's view is slightly different. Netflix's digital distribution of content is actually a natural extension of its original business. Because whether it is the online customer interaction interface, the collection and reuse of customer information, and the self-strengthening feedback chain of the recommendation engine, they can be directly migrated from the original business.</p><p>Although the definition of streaming media business is very simple, the deeper thing lies in what kind of business model Netflix wants to use to strengthen its competitive advantage. If it is just a channel provider of content, paying according to the convertibility of the content, such as buying a movie from Paramont, and the cost of distribution is directly proportional to the customer, then there will be no economies of scale and network effects at all. Therefore, the solution that Netflix thought of was to turn variable costs into fixed costs. For example, signing a fixed-price contract with a content provider or studio. And made a big gamble: spend $100 million to produce two seasons of \"House of Cards\" starring Kevin Spacey. The logic behind this is also very simple: since it doesn't work outward, then directly produce content inward, forcing content production to become part of the streaming media business model, making content production a fixed cost, and turning the entire economies of scale \"flywheel\" is established.</p><p>Netflix's strategy has achieved unprecedented results. In the world of the Internet, strong scale and network are the most reliable moats. In 2018, Warner's HBO, once a high-end leader in the streaming media industry, has been trapped in the United States because of its cable TV business genes. It has completely missed the opportunity of global expansion and is no longer able to compete with Netflix.</p><p>It was not until Disney Streaming was launched in November 2019 that Netflix had a truly competitor in the global field. COVID-19 pandemic even catalyzed the stock price. Netflix's market value once reached 300 billion US dollars, even surpassing Disney, the master of the media industry.</p><p>But the author has always had doubts about Netflix's business model. In the early stage of development, it is inevitable for the Internet format to spend money on market share. But when Netflix already has hundreds of millions of users, and the growth rate has to slow down due to the huge base, it must make a choice between two: 1. Generate a large amount of free cash flow to prove economies of scale; 2. You can lose money, but you must continue to grow at a high speed on a high base. At present, Netflix can't do either.</p><p>As you can see from Figure 2, the global number of subscribers to Netflix's streaming media channel has increased from 38 million in the first quarter of 2013 to 220 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>Figure 2 Global subscribers to Netflix streaming channels</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91afc9fee82717b650ed9f9629ee370\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Statistica</p><p>However, the information disclosed in the latest quarterly report and performance briefing shows that Disney's subscribers are still growing by several million each quarter, but Netflix has guided that the number of subscribers will decline in the second quarter. Therefore, in the past six months, Netflix's stock price has fallen from US $700 per share to US $170 per share, and the stock price has even returned to the position it was five years ago.</p><p>Figure 3 Netflix trend chart since the end of last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618091d0fa3d53745bee0dcf54a63300\" tg-width=\"1030\" tg-height=\"743\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>We can also see from Figure 4 that although Netflix's revenue has increased sevenfold in the past 10 years, it has not been able to generate a corresponding increase in free cash flow (except for the substantial benefit due to the epidemic in 2020).</p><p>Figure 4 Changes in Netflix's revenue and free cash flow over the past 10 years</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8ad713abb9ade6a9302c99d5739e5a\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Company 10K</p><p><b>Layout Netflix on the left</b></p><p><b>The loss limit may be around 20%</b></p><p>Judging from historical experience, market sentiment always goes from one extreme to the other, and seizing large pullback/retracement to buy high-quality equity is the only way to make profits from value investment.</p><p>The current market value of Netflix is US $82 billion, with US $6 billion in cash on its books, and a total debt of US $15 billion, which means that the company's enterprise value is US $91 billion. Netflix's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) in the past year was US $19 billion, which means that based on EBITDA calculations, Netflix's valuation is less than 6xEBITDA.</p><p>However, I would also like to reiterate here that Netflix generated the most operating cash flow in the past history of only US $2.43 billion in a year, which is 3% of the current market value. Netflix's annual depreciation and amortization are as high as US $12 billion, while its capital expenditure is only US $600 million. Therefore, Netflix's EBITDA, in my opinion, is deceptive, at least for us to accurately evaluate the value of this company. Limited help.</p><p>Because a large part of Netflix's EBITDA is the amortization of content assets. If content assets are excluded, the real amortization of factory buildings, equipment and intangible assets in the traditional sense is only about US $200 million per year. In other words, Netflix's real EBITDA is US $7 billion, which is 13xEBITDA according to the current stock price. The average valuation of the media industry is about 10xEBITDA, so even today, the market still gives Netflix a premium of about 30%.</p><p>The author believes that if you buy Netflix on the left side now, the loss limit may be about 20% (Netflix's valuation returns to 10xEBITDA), but the upper bound can reach several times, so the odds are interesting. But from the perspective of capital efficiency, it is hard to say.</p><p>Although Netflix has Reed Hastings and his very good team, whether Netflix's growth is really, as the company said, due to the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the European market and COVID-19 pandemic's repeated impacts on Latin America. The negative impact, temporary setbacks, remains to be seen.</p><p>Plus, if these reasons are true, why did Disney add more than 7 million subscribers? How should investors understand the huge difference between the two in the growth rate of subscribers in the past two quarters? If Disney can almost tie Netflix in terms of subscribers in 3 years, does this mean that Netflix does not have a deep moat?</p><p><b>HBO breaks through again</b></p><p><b>Netflix's global moat is tested</b></p><p>We mentioned HBO earlier. As the earliest high-end cable TV streaming provider, it is also the producer of the series Game of Thrones. At the beginning of Netflix's management's own content, it learned from HBO and converted content costs from variable costs to fixed costs. HBO is a part of Warner Bros. Later, telecom giant AT&T acquired Warner Bros., but because of poor management, it turned HBO into a second-rate streaming platform and sold Warner Pictures to Discovery Channel last year. After Discovery Channel acquired Warner Pictures, it became Warner Discovery (trading code: WBD).</p><p>The author believes that in fact, the risk-adjusted returns explored by Warner may be higher than those of Netflix. As mentioned earlier, the main problem of HBO is that it did not make a global layout earlier. It is precisely at this point that Warner Discovery has done a particularly good job, and more than 50% of its EBITDA comes from overseas. Warner Discovery can use the channels of Discovery Channel to Warner Film and Television and HBO. In this way, the whole business model will have a huge synergy effect, and Warner can quickly realize the global layout. Therefore, this merger and acquisition is very reasonable in my opinion.</p><p>According to statistics, Warner Discovery had 96 million subscribers at the beginning of the year, making it the world's largest streaming media platform besides Netflix and Disney. The author's \"pH test paper\" is very simple. If Warner Discovery can quickly achieve global large-scale streaming media deployment and complete the direct-to-consumer transformation of Discovery Channel's old business, it will show that Netflix has built economies of scale and The moat of network effect advantages is not so unbreakable, and Netflix's premium should not exist.</p><p>But if the globalization process explored by Warner is struggling, and there are still only two leading players in the entire market, Netflix and Disney, then we can almost be certain that the global duopoly pattern even if the competition is too fierce now, with the downward adjustment of the stock prices of the two companies and shareholders' demands for investment returns, competition will ease, and Netflix's profitability should also have a larger room for a jump.</p><p>Assuming that the duopoly structure is stable (that is, Warner Discovery cannot become a \"Shu Kingdom\"), then we have reason to believe that Netflix should be able to achieve an annualized growth rate of at least 10% in the next five years, which can give a 25x P/E. Assuming that Netflix can achieve a net profit margin of 20%, corresponding to a net profit of US $6 billion, the reasonable market value should be US $150 billion, which is a market value of about US $330 per share.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1571701096748","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"flywheel\" stalled, Netflix's moat is becoming its ceiling?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"flywheel\" stalled, Netflix's moat is becoming its ceiling?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">证券市场红周刊</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-04 15:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>When the growth rate of new users has to slow down due to the huge base, Netflix must make a choice between two: 1. Generate a large amount of free cash flow and prove economies of scale; 2. You can lose money, but you must continue to grow at a high speed on a high base. At present, Netflix can't do either.</p><p>According to foreign media reports, streaming media giant NetFlix announced that it would lay off about 150 employees and some agency contractors due to slowing revenue growth. Its first-quarter financial report released at the end of April showed that its net profit in the first quarter fell by 6% year-on-year, and its new paying users decreased by 200,000. This is also the first time since 2011 that Netflix's paying users have decreased instead of increasing. Under multiple pressures, Netflix's stock price plummeted. So is there a good opportunity for Netflix to deploy on the left? The author believes that if you buy now, the loss limit may be about 20%, but if you consider the capital efficiency, it is difficult to draw a conclusion. In the future, we still need to pay attention to when the growth of its paying users will stabilize and whether the moat of global layout is solid.</p><p><b>\"Flywheel\" Stall Users First Negative Growth</b></p><p>The final equity value of any company is equal to the sum of the cash flows that can be generated in its life cycle projected to the present at an appropriate discount rate. Being a review for Netflix will be very helpful for us to understand this concept.</p><p>In the past, if you wanted to watch a movie, you usually went to a place like a library, borrowed a few boxes of DVDs for a little money, and then took them home to watch them. But because of the emergence of Netflix, DVD rental boss Blockbuster declared bankruptcy in 2011. What Netflix did in the early days was very similar to what Amazon did in the early days, making it possible to rent DVDs online and deliver them to customers' homes, thereby reducing operating costs, giving profits to consumers, and expanding market share.</p><p>Figure 1 An old Blockbuster store</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39c0e8b8f31ff8b893e95f1bebc2dbf6\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Reed Hastings, the founder of Netflix, is a visionary. He observed that with the development of cloud technology and the strengthening of computing power, videos and movies will gradually be delivered in digital form instead of entities in the future. Therefore, he chose to subvert himself and refocus on the streaming media business.</p><p>Many articles say that this is Netflix's \"second growth curve\", but the author's view is slightly different. Netflix's digital distribution of content is actually a natural extension of its original business. Because whether it is the online customer interaction interface, the collection and reuse of customer information, and the self-strengthening feedback chain of the recommendation engine, they can be directly migrated from the original business.</p><p>Although the definition of streaming media business is very simple, the deeper thing lies in what kind of business model Netflix wants to use to strengthen its competitive advantage. If it is just a channel provider of content, paying according to the convertibility of the content, such as buying a movie from Paramont, and the cost of distribution is directly proportional to the customer, then there will be no economies of scale and network effects at all. Therefore, the solution that Netflix thought of was to turn variable costs into fixed costs. For example, signing a fixed-price contract with a content provider or studio. And made a big gamble: spend $100 million to produce two seasons of \"House of Cards\" starring Kevin Spacey. The logic behind this is also very simple: since it doesn't work outward, then directly produce content inward, forcing content production to become part of the streaming media business model, making content production a fixed cost, and turning the entire economies of scale \"flywheel\" is established.</p><p>Netflix's strategy has achieved unprecedented results. In the world of the Internet, strong scale and network are the most reliable moats. In 2018, Warner's HBO, once a high-end leader in the streaming media industry, has been trapped in the United States because of its cable TV business genes. It has completely missed the opportunity of global expansion and is no longer able to compete with Netflix.</p><p>It was not until Disney Streaming was launched in November 2019 that Netflix had a truly competitor in the global field. COVID-19 pandemic even catalyzed the stock price. Netflix's market value once reached 300 billion US dollars, even surpassing Disney, the master of the media industry.</p><p>But the author has always had doubts about Netflix's business model. In the early stage of development, it is inevitable for the Internet format to spend money on market share. But when Netflix already has hundreds of millions of users, and the growth rate has to slow down due to the huge base, it must make a choice between two: 1. Generate a large amount of free cash flow to prove economies of scale; 2. You can lose money, but you must continue to grow at a high speed on a high base. At present, Netflix can't do either.</p><p>As you can see from Figure 2, the global number of subscribers to Netflix's streaming media channel has increased from 38 million in the first quarter of 2013 to 220 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>Figure 2 Global subscribers to Netflix streaming channels</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91afc9fee82717b650ed9f9629ee370\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Statistica</p><p>However, the information disclosed in the latest quarterly report and performance briefing shows that Disney's subscribers are still growing by several million each quarter, but Netflix has guided that the number of subscribers will decline in the second quarter. Therefore, in the past six months, Netflix's stock price has fallen from US $700 per share to US $170 per share, and the stock price has even returned to the position it was five years ago.</p><p>Figure 3 Netflix trend chart since the end of last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618091d0fa3d53745bee0dcf54a63300\" tg-width=\"1030\" tg-height=\"743\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>We can also see from Figure 4 that although Netflix's revenue has increased sevenfold in the past 10 years, it has not been able to generate a corresponding increase in free cash flow (except for the substantial benefit due to the epidemic in 2020).</p><p>Figure 4 Changes in Netflix's revenue and free cash flow over the past 10 years</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8ad713abb9ade6a9302c99d5739e5a\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Company 10K</p><p><b>Layout Netflix on the left</b></p><p><b>The loss limit may be around 20%</b></p><p>Judging from historical experience, market sentiment always goes from one extreme to the other, and seizing large pullback/retracement to buy high-quality equity is the only way to make profits from value investment.</p><p>The current market value of Netflix is US $82 billion, with US $6 billion in cash on its books, and a total debt of US $15 billion, which means that the company's enterprise value is US $91 billion. Netflix's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) in the past year was US $19 billion, which means that based on EBITDA calculations, Netflix's valuation is less than 6xEBITDA.</p><p>However, I would also like to reiterate here that Netflix generated the most operating cash flow in the past history of only US $2.43 billion in a year, which is 3% of the current market value. Netflix's annual depreciation and amortization are as high as US $12 billion, while its capital expenditure is only US $600 million. Therefore, Netflix's EBITDA, in my opinion, is deceptive, at least for us to accurately evaluate the value of this company. Limited help.</p><p>Because a large part of Netflix's EBITDA is the amortization of content assets. If content assets are excluded, the real amortization of factory buildings, equipment and intangible assets in the traditional sense is only about US $200 million per year. In other words, Netflix's real EBITDA is US $7 billion, which is 13xEBITDA according to the current stock price. The average valuation of the media industry is about 10xEBITDA, so even today, the market still gives Netflix a premium of about 30%.</p><p>The author believes that if you buy Netflix on the left side now, the loss limit may be about 20% (Netflix's valuation returns to 10xEBITDA), but the upper bound can reach several times, so the odds are interesting. But from the perspective of capital efficiency, it is hard to say.</p><p>Although Netflix has Reed Hastings and his very good team, whether Netflix's growth is really, as the company said, due to the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the European market and COVID-19 pandemic's repeated impacts on Latin America. The negative impact, temporary setbacks, remains to be seen.</p><p>Plus, if these reasons are true, why did Disney add more than 7 million subscribers? How should investors understand the huge difference between the two in the growth rate of subscribers in the past two quarters? If Disney can almost tie Netflix in terms of subscribers in 3 years, does this mean that Netflix does not have a deep moat?</p><p><b>HBO breaks through again</b></p><p><b>Netflix's global moat is tested</b></p><p>We mentioned HBO earlier. As the earliest high-end cable TV streaming provider, it is also the producer of the series Game of Thrones. At the beginning of Netflix's management's own content, it learned from HBO and converted content costs from variable costs to fixed costs. HBO is a part of Warner Bros. Later, telecom giant AT&T acquired Warner Bros., but because of poor management, it turned HBO into a second-rate streaming platform and sold Warner Pictures to Discovery Channel last year. After Discovery Channel acquired Warner Pictures, it became Warner Discovery (trading code: WBD).</p><p>The author believes that in fact, the risk-adjusted returns explored by Warner may be higher than those of Netflix. As mentioned earlier, the main problem of HBO is that it did not make a global layout earlier. It is precisely at this point that Warner Discovery has done a particularly good job, and more than 50% of its EBITDA comes from overseas. Warner Discovery can use the channels of Discovery Channel to Warner Film and Television and HBO. In this way, the whole business model will have a huge synergy effect, and Warner can quickly realize the global layout. Therefore, this merger and acquisition is very reasonable in my opinion.</p><p>According to statistics, Warner Discovery had 96 million subscribers at the beginning of the year, making it the world's largest streaming media platform besides Netflix and Disney. The author's \"pH test paper\" is very simple. If Warner Discovery can quickly achieve global large-scale streaming media deployment and complete the direct-to-consumer transformation of Discovery Channel's old business, it will show that Netflix has built economies of scale and The moat of network effect advantages is not so unbreakable, and Netflix's premium should not exist.</p><p>But if the globalization process explored by Warner is struggling, and there are still only two leading players in the entire market, Netflix and Disney, then we can almost be certain that the global duopoly pattern even if the competition is too fierce now, with the downward adjustment of the stock prices of the two companies and shareholders' demands for investment returns, competition will ease, and Netflix's profitability should also have a larger room for a jump.</p><p>Assuming that the duopoly structure is stable (that is, Warner Discovery cannot become a \"Shu Kingdom\"), then we have reason to believe that Netflix should be able to achieve an annualized growth rate of at least 10% in the next five years, which can give a 25x P/E. Assuming that Netflix can achieve a net profit margin of 20%, corresponding to a net profit of US $6 billion, the reasonable market value should be US $150 billion, which is a market value of about US $330 per share.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/u37Kpc-grId8paew0xCvrA\">证券市场红周刊</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2224e6b43e75f835dbd8bb6d8c4972c","relate_stocks":{"BK4566":"资本集团","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","NFLX":"奈飞","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/u37Kpc-grId8paew0xCvrA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115257762","content_text":"当新用户增速因为基数巨大而不得不放缓时，奈飞就必须做出二选一的抉择：1.产生大量的自由现金流，证明规模经济；2.可以亏钱，但必须在高基数上持续高速成长。目前看，奈飞两个都做不到。据外媒报道，由于收入增长放缓，流媒体巨头奈飞（NetFlix）宣布将解雇约150名员工以及部分代理承包商。4月底其发布的第一季度财报显示，第一季度净利润同比下降6%，新增付费用户减少20万，这也是奈飞自2011年来首次付费用户不增反降。多重压力下，奈飞股价暴跌。那当前奈飞是否出现了左侧布局良机？笔者认为，现在买入，亏损的极限可能是20%左右，但如果考虑资金效率，则不好下定论。后续仍需留意其付费用户增长何时企稳，以及全球化布局护城河是否牢固。“飞轮”失速 用户首次负增长任何一个公司其最终的股权价值，都等于其生命周期能够产生的现金流按照合适的贴现比率投射到当下的数值之和。对奈飞做一个复盘，将非常有助于我们理解这一概念。曾经，如果想要看电影，一般都是去一个类似图书馆的地方，花一点钱借几盒DVD，然后带回家去看。但因为奈飞的出现，DVD租赁老大Blockbuster在2011年宣告破产。早期奈飞做的事，和早期亚马逊做的事非常像，让线上租赁DVD并投递到客户家中成为可能，以此减少经营成本，把利润让给消费者，扩大市场份额。图1 一个老Blockbuster店奈飞的创始人里德·哈斯廷斯（Reed Hastings）是一个很有远见的人。他观察到随着云技术的发展，计算能力的加强，未来视频和电影一定会慢慢以数字化的形式去传递，而非实体。因此他选择自我颠覆，重注流媒体业务。很多文章说这是奈飞的“第二增长曲线”，笔者的观点有些许不同。奈飞走数字化分发内容，其实是再自然不过的一种原有业务的延伸。因为无论是线上客户交互界面，客户信息的搜集和再利用，以及推荐引擎的自我加强反馈链，都可以直接从原有业务迁移。虽然流媒体业务的定义很简单，但更深层的东西，在于奈飞要以怎样的商业模式去强化自己的竞争优势。如果只是一个内容的渠道商，按照内容的可变成本来支付，比如从帕拉蒙特购买一部电影，分发要支付的费用和客户成正比，那就没有规模经济和网络效应可言。因此，奈飞想到的办法是把可变成本变成固定成本。比如和内容供应商或工作室签一个固定价格的合约。并做了一把豪赌：花一亿美元制作两季由凯文·史派西（Kevin Spacey）主演的《纸牌屋》。这背后的逻辑也很简单:既然向外不行，那就向内直接把内容给制作了，强迫内容生产变成流媒体商业模式的一部分，让内容制作变成固定成本，将整个规模经济的“飞轮”建立起来。奈飞的战略取得了空前的成果，在互联网的世界里，强大的规模和网络是最可靠的护城河。2018年，曾经流媒体行业的高端翘楚，华纳旗下的HBO，因为有线电视业务基因，一直困于美国本土，已经完全错失了全球扩张的机会，再也无力和奈飞掰手腕。直到2019年迪士尼流媒体在11月份上线，奈飞才出现一个真正在全球领域能与之竞争的对手。新冠疫情更是催化了股价，奈飞的市值一度高达3000亿美元，甚至超过了传媒行业的宗主迪士尼。但笔者对奈飞的生意模式，一直是有疑惑的。在发展前期，砸钱烧市场份额，这是互联网业态的必然。但当奈飞已经有上亿的用户规模了，增速因为基数巨大而不得不放缓时，那就必须做出二选一的抉择：1.产生大量的自由现金流，证明规模经济；2.可以亏钱，但必须在高基数上持续高速成长。目前看，奈飞两个都做不到。从图2可以看到，奈飞流媒体频道的全球订阅人数从2013年一季度的3800万，增加到2022年一季度的2.2亿。图2 奈飞流媒体频道的全球订阅人数数据来源：Statistica但在最新披露的一季报以及业绩说明会透露的信息显示，迪士尼每个季度的订阅人数仍在以几百万的幅度增长，奈飞却指引二季度订阅人数将下降。因此，过去6个月，奈飞的股价从700美元/股下挫到170美元/股，股价甚至回到了5年前的位置。图3 去年年底以来奈飞走势图从图4中我们也可以看到，尽管奈飞的营收在过去10年增加了7倍，但却一直没有办法产生相应增幅的自由现金流（除了2020年因为疫情而大幅受益）。图4 过去10年奈飞营收和自由现金流变动数据来源：公司10K左侧布局奈飞亏损极限可能在20%左右历史经验来看，市场情绪总是从一个极端走到另一个极端，而抓住大幅回撤买入优质股权，正是价值投资获利的不二良方。目前奈飞的市值为820亿美元，账面有现金60亿美元，债务共计150亿美元，也就是说这个公司的企业价值为910亿美元。奈飞过去一年的EBITDA（税息折旧及摊销前利润）为190亿美元，也就是说，按照EBITDA计算，奈飞的估值才6xEBITDA不到。不过，这里也要重申提醒，奈飞过去历史上产生过最多经营现金流的一年才24.3亿美元，也就是目前市值的3%的经营现金流收益。奈飞每年的折旧摊销高达120亿美元，而资本开支才6亿美元，因此奈飞的EBITDA，在笔者看来，是有欺骗性的，至少对于我们准确对这个公司的价值进行评估的帮助有限。因为奈飞的EBITDA里面，很大一部分是对内容资产的摊销，如果剔除掉内容资产的话，每年按照传统意义的厂房、器械和无形资产的真实摊销只有2亿美元左右。也就是说，奈飞的真实EBITDA是70亿美元，按照当前股价是13xEBITDA。传媒行业的平均估值大概是10xEBITDA，所以即便如今，市场给奈飞的估值还是有大概30%的溢价。笔者认为，如果现在左侧买入奈飞，亏损的极限可能是20%左右（奈飞估值回到10xEBITDA），但上界可以达到好几倍，因此赔率是有意思的。但是资金效率角度，却不好说。尽管奈飞有里德·哈斯廷斯及他非常优秀的团队，但奈飞的成长性是不是真的如公司所说，是受俄乌战争对欧洲市场的影响，以及新冠疫情反复对拉丁美洲造成的负面影响，暂时受挫，还有待观察。另外，如果这些理由属实，为什么迪士尼增加了700多万名订阅者呢？投资者应如何理解两者在订阅人数增速上，过去两个季度巨大的差异呢？如果迪士尼能用3年的时间几乎在订阅人数上追平奈飞，这是不是说明奈飞没有很深的护城河呢？HBO再突围奈飞全球化护城河受检验我们前面提到过HBO，其作为最早的高端有线电视流媒体供应商，也是《权力的游戏》这一连续剧的制作商。奈飞的管理层做自己的内容之初，就是学习了HBO，把内容成本从可变成本，转化成为了固定成本。HBO是华纳兄弟的一部分，后来电信巨头AT&T收购了华纳兄弟，但因为经营不善，愣是把HBO做成了一个二流流媒体平台，并在去年把华纳影视卖给了探索频道。探索频道收购了华纳影视之后，变成了华纳探索（交易代码：WBD）。笔者认为，其实华纳探索的风险调整后收益，恐怕比奈飞更高。前文谈到，HBO的问题主要在于没有早一些做全球化布局。恰恰在这一点上，华纳探索做得特别好，其EBITDA超过50%都是来自于海外的。华纳探索可以把探索频道的渠道拿来给华纳影视及HBO使用，这样一来，整个商业模式会有巨大的协同效应，华纳也可以很快实现全球化布局，因此这个并购，在笔者看来是很合理的。统计数据来看，华纳探索的年初订阅人数为9600万，是除了奈飞和迪士尼之外全球最大的流媒体平台。笔者的“酸碱度测试纸”很简单，如果华纳探索能较快地实现全球规模化流媒体部署，并完成探索频道老业务的直接面向消费者的转型，那将说明，奈飞搭建的规模经济和网络效应优势的护城河，并没有那么牢不可破，奈飞的溢价也就不应存在。但如果华纳探索的全球化进程举步维艰，整个市场仍然只有奈飞和迪士尼这两个头部玩家，那我们几乎可以确定全球双寡头垄断格局即便现在竞争过于激烈，随着两个公司股价的下调及股东对投资回报的诉求，竞争将缓和，奈飞的盈利能力，应也会有一个较大的跃升空间。假设双寡头格局是稳固的（即华纳探索无法成为“蜀国”），那么我们有理由相信奈飞应能至少实现未来5年年化10%的增速，可以给一个25x的市盈率。假设奈飞能实现20%的净利润率，对应60亿美元的净利润，则合理市值应为1500亿美元，也就是330美元/股左右的市值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}