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山那边的英英子
2022-11-29
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Unity Software Inc.(U)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6d138e927c34bc989fcdee0fdc1fa4e4","width":"1125","height":"2472"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960115417","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987763659,"gmtCreate":1667998139271,"gmtModify":1676537996285,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581939067431343","idStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/953d439171a26598ee1bb2bc69705234","width":"1125","height":"2688"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987763659","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987268290,"gmtCreate":1667921749610,"gmtModify":1676537985233,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581939067431343","idStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"u","listText":"u","text":"u","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987268290","repostId":"9987263344","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9987263344,"gmtCreate":1667921274989,"gmtModify":1676537985122,"author":{"id":"3479274799416327","authorId":"3479274799416327","name":"marketpre","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bdd403049856caa030d5acaf3e72506","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3479274799416327","idStr":"3479274799416327"},"themes":[],"title":"2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy for This Important Reason","htmlText":"Investing in cash-rich companies is a smart strategy during bear markets.Microsoft (MSFT) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are two tech firms that have been around for decades and successfully navigated several downturns. The important reason these companies keep going is their combination of industry leadership and financial strength.With the stocks of Microsoft and TI down 34% and 16%, respectively, year to date, the market dip presents an excellent opportunity to invest in these leaders at attractive valuations. Let's look at where Microsoft and TI are investing to drive long-term growth.Microsoft is on offenseDominant Microsoft has seen its share price fall 34% year to date. The software giant reported stable growth in its latest earnings report. Revenue w","listText":"Investing in cash-rich companies is a smart strategy during bear markets.Microsoft (MSFT) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are two tech firms that have been around for decades and successfully navigated several downturns. The important reason these companies keep going is their combination of industry leadership and financial strength.With the stocks of Microsoft and TI down 34% and 16%, respectively, year to date, the market dip presents an excellent opportunity to invest in these leaders at attractive valuations. Let's look at where Microsoft and TI are investing to drive long-term growth.Microsoft is on offenseDominant Microsoft has seen its share price fall 34% year to date. The software giant reported stable growth in its latest earnings report. Revenue w","text":"Investing in cash-rich companies is a smart strategy during bear markets.Microsoft (MSFT) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are two tech firms that have been around for decades and successfully navigated several downturns. The important reason these companies keep going is their combination of industry leadership and financial strength.With the stocks of Microsoft and TI down 34% and 16%, respectively, year to date, the market dip presents an excellent opportunity to invest in these leaders at attractive valuations. Let's look at where Microsoft and TI are investing to drive long-term growth.Microsoft is on offenseDominant Microsoft has seen its share price fall 34% year to date. The software giant reported stable growth in its latest earnings report. Revenue w","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6dd0b6e6e33d48273f12b4b3a351059","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987263344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987268927,"gmtCreate":1667921666969,"gmtModify":1676537985199,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581939067431343","idStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a><v-v 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Disney(DIS)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d2ce4247c93470709977f69b3c2c5354","width":"1125","height":"2580"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985366707","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982137956,"gmtCreate":1667110918376,"gmtModify":1676537862924,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581939067431343","idStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982137956","repostId":"1148576482","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576482","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667099454,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148576482?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-30 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 7 Best Tech Stocks to Buy in November","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576482","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"These best tech stocks to buy all feature low risk and deep discounts.Nvidia(NVDA): Shares appear si","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>These best tech stocks to buy all feature low risk and deep discounts.</li><li><b>Nvidia</b>(<b>NVDA</b>): Shares appear significantly undervalued following a steep sell-off.</li><li><b>Adobe</b>(<b>ADBE</b>): Its income-statement performance is impressive.</li><li><b>Intel</b>(<b>INTC</b>): Shares look compelling at this deeply discounted price.</li><li><b>Taiwan Semiconductor</b>(<b>TSM</b>): It’s a profit-generating machine.</li><li><b>Applied Materials</b>(<b>AMAT</b>): Its returns on equity and assets are among the best in the chip industry.</li><li><b>Lam Research</b>(<b>LRCX</b>): Its ROE and ROA are even better than those of Applied Materials.</li><li><b>NXP Semiconductors</b>(<b>NXPI</b>): It’s perhaps the riskiest of the bunch but may offer greater rewards.</li></ul><p>Tech stocks have suffered disproportionately in the current bear market, as they tend to do in every bear market. But the bullish long-term bias of the market tells us that stocks will almost certainly resume their uptrend. When they do, nearly all tech stocks should bounce to some extent, but the best tech stocks could soar.</p><p>Historically, the broader market tends to perform well during the November-to-April timespan. Of course, this is no guarantee for success. Still, it adds a powerful backdrop for those looking to put capital to work in one of the more speculative sectors of the market.</p><p>In searching for the best tech stocks to buy, we’re sticking with financial data. Leveraging the analytical tools ofGuruFocus.com, the below equities all feature fundamentally low risk and discounted prices.</p><p>Here are the best tech stocks to buy in November.</p><p><b>Nvidia (NVDA)</b></p><p>A multinational technology firm, <b>Nvidia</b>(NASDAQ:<b>NVDA</b>) primarily garnered attention through its specialty in graphics processing units. However, the company also made significant investments in deep learning and protocols involving artificial intelligence. Currently, the company commands a market capitalization of $345 billion. On a year-to-date basis, NVDA is down 53%.</p><p>Despite the steep losses, contrarian investors should consider gradually picking up shares.<i>GuruFocus</i> utilizes proprietary calculations to determine that NVDA stock is significantly undervalued. Based on more traditional metrics, Nvidia features excellent income-statement performance figures. For instance, the company’s three-year revenue growth rate stands at 31.3%. Its book growth rate during the aforementioned period hit 40.2%. Both stats rank at least near the 90th percentile for the industry. On the bottom line, Nvidia carries a net margin of 26%. This ranks above 87% of the competition.</p><p>To top it off, NVDA is tethered to a strong balance sheet. Mainly, its Altman Z-Score is a lofty 12 points, reflecting extremely low bankruptcy risk. Thus, NVDA easily ranks among the best tech stocks to buy in November.</p><p><b>Adobe (ADBE)</b></p><p><b>Adobe</b>(NASDAQ:<b>ADBE</b>) is a software company that mainly aligns with creatives. Historically, it’s known for the creation and publication of a wide range of content, including graphics, photography, illustration, animation, multimedia/video, motion pictures and print. Currently, Adobe carries a market cap of $151 billion after slipping 43% year to date.</p><p>Again, based on<i>GuruFocus’</i>proprietary metrics, Adobe rates as significantly undervalued. One traditional metric regarding valuation to consider is its price-earnings-growth ratio of 1.09. This rates favorably below the industry median of 1.4 times.</p><p>However, Adobe draws the most attention for its income statement-related performance. For example, the company’s three-year revenue growth rate and free cash flow growth rate stand at 21.9% and 23.7%, respectively. Both figures rank conspicuously above sector averages.</p><p>On the bottom line, Adobe carries a net margin of 28%, well above the industry median of 1.9%. Throw in a stable balance sheet and you have another solid candidate for best tech stocks to buy in November.</p><p><b>Intel (INTC)</b></p><p>One of the powerhouses in the semiconductor industry, <b>Intel</b>(NASDAQ:<b>INTC</b>) represents the world’s second-largest semiconductor chip manufacturer by revenue. Per its corporate profile, it’s also one of the developers of the x86 series of instruction sets, the instruction sets found in most personal computers. Presently, INTC commands a market cap of $119 billion and is down 44% for the year.</p><p>Despite sharp losses, INTC is among the best tech stocks to buy in November. Notably, INTC is significantly undervalued based on traditional metrics. Its forward P/E ratio is 10.1, below the industry median of 13.7. Also, its Shiller P/E ratio is 7.6, below the sector median of nearly 24.</p><p>On the income statement, Intel features an overall solid profile. Its three-year book growth rate stands at 12.4%, above 61.5% of the competition. For net margin, it hit 26%, better than 87% of its peers.</p><p><b>Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)</b></p><p>A multinational semiconductor firm, <b>Taiwan Semiconductor</b> (NYSE:<b>TSM</b>) represents the world’s most valuable semiconductor company, the world’s largest dedicated independent semiconductor foundry, and one of Taiwan’s largest companies, per its public profile. Presently, TSM commands a market cap of nearly $322 billion and is down 48% year to date.</p><p>Despite the severe erosion of equity value, TSM ranks among the best tech stocks to buy in November for contrarians. Per<i>GuruFocus</i>, TSM is significantly undervalued. The company’s forward P/E ratio is 10.9 is below the industry median of 13.7. Also, its price-to-owner earnings ratio is 10.5, below the industry median of 16.1.</p><p>Primarily, though, TSM is all about its profitability machine. Gross, operating and net margins hit 55%, 44.7% and 40.6% respectively. Each of these metrics was well above sector median levels. As well, TSM enjoys solid growth figures, with its three-year revenue growth rate coming in at 15.5%. This ranks above 68.5% of the competition.</p><p><b>Applied Materials (AMAT)</b></p><p><b>Applied Materials</b>(NASDAQ:<b>AMAT</b>) represents the leader in materials engineering solutions used to produce virtually every new chip and advanced display in the world, per its website. Currently, Applied Materials features a market cap of $77 billion, and the stock is down 43% year to date.</p><p>Per<i>GuruFocus</i>, AMAT stock is significantly undervalued. A notable standout in terms of traditional metrics is its PEG ratio of 0.56. This ranks favorably below the industry median of 0.75.</p><p>Primarily, though, Applied Materials will likely draw attention as one of the best tech stocks to buy in November because of its high-quality business. Specifically, the company’s return on equity and return on assets hit 55.5% and 26.1%, respectively. Both stats rank among the upper echelons of the semiconductor industry.</p><p>To top it off, AMAT features a stable balance sheet. Most prominently, its Altman Z-Score of 7.5 implies low bankruptcy risk.</p><p><b>Lam Research (LRCX)</b></p><p><b>Lam Research</b>(NASDAQ:<b>LRCX</b>) is an American supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and related services to the semiconductor industry. Currently, the company carries a market cap of slightly over $55 billion after falling 44% year to date. The stock’s average daily volume is approximately 1.9 million shares.</p><p>Fundamentally, the case for LRCX as one of the top tech stocks to buy in November is two-fold. First, Lam represents a high-quality business. Its return on equity is a blistering 75.8%. That’s above 99% of the semiconductor industry. As well, the company’s return on assets hit 28.6%, ranking above 97% of its peers.</p><p>Second, Lam enjoys outstanding sales-related performance. For example, its three-year revenue growth rate is 26.6%, better than 84% of the competition. As well, the company’s book growth rate during the same period is 11.9%, better than nearly 60% of its rivals.</p><p><b>NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)</b></p><p>Netherlands-based <b>NXP Semiconductors</b>(NASDAQ:<b>NXPI</b>) is a semiconductor designer and manufacturer. After falling 33% this year, it has a market cap of roughly $40 billion. Average trading volume is around 2.1 million shares a day.</p><p>Interestingly, the YTD performance makes NXP one of the better-performing semiconductor firms. However, that’s not the reason why it’s on this list of best tech stocks to buy in November. Fundamentally, the stock is significantly undervalued based on proprietary calculations. And its forward P/E ratio of 10.6 is below the industry median of 13.7 times.</p><p>The company enjoys substantive profitability margins, including an operating margin of 27%, which ranks above 84% of its peers. It’s also a high-quality business with a return on equity of nearly 36%.</p><p>About the one glaring risk factor is balance sheet stability. Its Altman Z-Score pings at 2.4, which is in a gray zone. However, the higher-risk profile could lead to potentially greater gains.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 7 Best Tech Stocks to Buy in November</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 7 Best Tech Stocks to Buy in November\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-30 11:10 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/best-tech-stocks/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These best tech stocks to buy all feature low risk and deep discounts.Nvidia(NVDA): Shares appear significantly undervalued following a steep sell-off.Adobe(ADBE): Its income-statement performance is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/best-tech-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","NXPI":"恩智浦","LRCX":"拉姆研究","ADBE":"Adobe","INTC":"英特尔","NVDA":"英伟达","AMAT":"应用材料"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/best-tech-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576482","content_text":"These best tech stocks to buy all feature low risk and deep discounts.Nvidia(NVDA): Shares appear significantly undervalued following a steep sell-off.Adobe(ADBE): Its income-statement performance is impressive.Intel(INTC): Shares look compelling at this deeply discounted price.Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM): It’s a profit-generating machine.Applied Materials(AMAT): Its returns on equity and assets are among the best in the chip industry.Lam Research(LRCX): Its ROE and ROA are even better than those of Applied Materials.NXP Semiconductors(NXPI): It’s perhaps the riskiest of the bunch but may offer greater rewards.Tech stocks have suffered disproportionately in the current bear market, as they tend to do in every bear market. But the bullish long-term bias of the market tells us that stocks will almost certainly resume their uptrend. When they do, nearly all tech stocks should bounce to some extent, but the best tech stocks could soar.Historically, the broader market tends to perform well during the November-to-April timespan. Of course, this is no guarantee for success. Still, it adds a powerful backdrop for those looking to put capital to work in one of the more speculative sectors of the market.In searching for the best tech stocks to buy, we’re sticking with financial data. Leveraging the analytical tools ofGuruFocus.com, the below equities all feature fundamentally low risk and discounted prices.Here are the best tech stocks to buy in November.Nvidia (NVDA)A multinational technology firm, Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) primarily garnered attention through its specialty in graphics processing units. However, the company also made significant investments in deep learning and protocols involving artificial intelligence. Currently, the company commands a market capitalization of $345 billion. On a year-to-date basis, NVDA is down 53%.Despite the steep losses, contrarian investors should consider gradually picking up shares.GuruFocus utilizes proprietary calculations to determine that NVDA stock is significantly undervalued. Based on more traditional metrics, Nvidia features excellent income-statement performance figures. For instance, the company’s three-year revenue growth rate stands at 31.3%. Its book growth rate during the aforementioned period hit 40.2%. Both stats rank at least near the 90th percentile for the industry. On the bottom line, Nvidia carries a net margin of 26%. This ranks above 87% of the competition.To top it off, NVDA is tethered to a strong balance sheet. Mainly, its Altman Z-Score is a lofty 12 points, reflecting extremely low bankruptcy risk. Thus, NVDA easily ranks among the best tech stocks to buy in November.Adobe (ADBE)Adobe(NASDAQ:ADBE) is a software company that mainly aligns with creatives. Historically, it’s known for the creation and publication of a wide range of content, including graphics, photography, illustration, animation, multimedia/video, motion pictures and print. Currently, Adobe carries a market cap of $151 billion after slipping 43% year to date.Again, based onGuruFocus’proprietary metrics, Adobe rates as significantly undervalued. One traditional metric regarding valuation to consider is its price-earnings-growth ratio of 1.09. This rates favorably below the industry median of 1.4 times.However, Adobe draws the most attention for its income statement-related performance. For example, the company’s three-year revenue growth rate and free cash flow growth rate stand at 21.9% and 23.7%, respectively. Both figures rank conspicuously above sector averages.On the bottom line, Adobe carries a net margin of 28%, well above the industry median of 1.9%. Throw in a stable balance sheet and you have another solid candidate for best tech stocks to buy in November.Intel (INTC)One of the powerhouses in the semiconductor industry, Intel(NASDAQ:INTC) represents the world’s second-largest semiconductor chip manufacturer by revenue. Per its corporate profile, it’s also one of the developers of the x86 series of instruction sets, the instruction sets found in most personal computers. Presently, INTC commands a market cap of $119 billion and is down 44% for the year.Despite sharp losses, INTC is among the best tech stocks to buy in November. Notably, INTC is significantly undervalued based on traditional metrics. Its forward P/E ratio is 10.1, below the industry median of 13.7. Also, its Shiller P/E ratio is 7.6, below the sector median of nearly 24.On the income statement, Intel features an overall solid profile. Its three-year book growth rate stands at 12.4%, above 61.5% of the competition. For net margin, it hit 26%, better than 87% of its peers.Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)A multinational semiconductor firm, Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) represents the world’s most valuable semiconductor company, the world’s largest dedicated independent semiconductor foundry, and one of Taiwan’s largest companies, per its public profile. Presently, TSM commands a market cap of nearly $322 billion and is down 48% year to date.Despite the severe erosion of equity value, TSM ranks among the best tech stocks to buy in November for contrarians. PerGuruFocus, TSM is significantly undervalued. The company’s forward P/E ratio is 10.9 is below the industry median of 13.7. Also, its price-to-owner earnings ratio is 10.5, below the industry median of 16.1.Primarily, though, TSM is all about its profitability machine. Gross, operating and net margins hit 55%, 44.7% and 40.6% respectively. Each of these metrics was well above sector median levels. As well, TSM enjoys solid growth figures, with its three-year revenue growth rate coming in at 15.5%. This ranks above 68.5% of the competition.Applied Materials (AMAT)Applied Materials(NASDAQ:AMAT) represents the leader in materials engineering solutions used to produce virtually every new chip and advanced display in the world, per its website. Currently, Applied Materials features a market cap of $77 billion, and the stock is down 43% year to date.PerGuruFocus, AMAT stock is significantly undervalued. A notable standout in terms of traditional metrics is its PEG ratio of 0.56. This ranks favorably below the industry median of 0.75.Primarily, though, Applied Materials will likely draw attention as one of the best tech stocks to buy in November because of its high-quality business. Specifically, the company’s return on equity and return on assets hit 55.5% and 26.1%, respectively. Both stats rank among the upper echelons of the semiconductor industry.To top it off, AMAT features a stable balance sheet. Most prominently, its Altman Z-Score of 7.5 implies low bankruptcy risk.Lam Research (LRCX)Lam Research(NASDAQ:LRCX) is an American supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and related services to the semiconductor industry. Currently, the company carries a market cap of slightly over $55 billion after falling 44% year to date. The stock’s average daily volume is approximately 1.9 million shares.Fundamentally, the case for LRCX as one of the top tech stocks to buy in November is two-fold. First, Lam represents a high-quality business. Its return on equity is a blistering 75.8%. That’s above 99% of the semiconductor industry. As well, the company’s return on assets hit 28.6%, ranking above 97% of its peers.Second, Lam enjoys outstanding sales-related performance. For example, its three-year revenue growth rate is 26.6%, better than 84% of the competition. As well, the company’s book growth rate during the same period is 11.9%, better than nearly 60% of its rivals.NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)Netherlands-based NXP Semiconductors(NASDAQ:NXPI) is a semiconductor designer and manufacturer. After falling 33% this year, it has a market cap of roughly $40 billion. Average trading volume is around 2.1 million shares a day.Interestingly, the YTD performance makes NXP one of the better-performing semiconductor firms. However, that’s not the reason why it’s on this list of best tech stocks to buy in November. Fundamentally, the stock is significantly undervalued based on proprietary calculations. And its forward P/E ratio of 10.6 is below the industry median of 13.7 times.The company enjoys substantive profitability margins, including an operating margin of 27%, which ranks above 84% of its peers. It’s also a high-quality business with a return on equity of nearly 36%.About the one glaring risk factor is balance sheet stability. Its Altman Z-Score pings at 2.4, which is in a gray zone. 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tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>波音盘中直线拉升，737 Max将到中国接受认证测试</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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class=\"title\">\n波音盘中直线拉升，737 Max将到中国接受认证测试\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-04 22:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周三盘中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>直线拉升， 抹去日内跌幅。消息面上，波音一架737 Max客机即将启程前往中国接受认证测试。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/295b33f8b1062f660ebe38937b8dc87d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02346726093e06d899a1879905b1c340","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167639340","content_text":"周三盘中，波音直线拉升， 抹去日内跌幅。消息面上，波音一架737 Max客机即将启程前往中国接受认证测试。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":25,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159211634,"gmtCreate":1624969670228,"gmtModify":1703849034988,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"b","listText":"b","text":"b","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159211634","repostId":"1100369453","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":31,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192830513,"gmtCreate":1621173860832,"gmtModify":1704353615766,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"E","listText":"E","text":"E","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192830513","repostId":"2135598119","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911918983,"gmtCreate":1664112696242,"gmtModify":1676537392038,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"j","listText":"j","text":"j","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911918983","repostId":"2269494309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269494309","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664085642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269494309?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-25 14:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Google: Here's The Worst Case Scenario","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269494309","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I've previously written a number of articles discussing the resiliency of Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOG) (","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>I've previously written a number of articles discussing the resiliency of Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) business during a recession and why investors should not worry about the search engine giant however depressing the current macro narrative may be. Having repeatedly received questions as to what exactly will happen to shares of Google in a recession, I've decided to come up with an analysis of an absolute worst case scenario for 2023.</p><h2>Digital advertising in 2022</h2><p>It's important to first understand the state of the digital advertising sector to get a sense of how things are progressing in a post-Covid environment. While all players in the space saw positive top-line growth in 1Q22, challenges began to surface in Q2 as companies lapped tough 2021 comps. More importantly, the outlook provided by most management teams was frankly terrifying.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d88511c646d4175530a996f92cfa8a85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Company, consensus estimates, Albert Lin</p><p></p><p>Meta (META), the largest social media platform in the world, reported negative revenue growth in Q2 and provided Q3 revenue guidance that was 10% below Street estimates as management pointed to worsening macro conditions. Snap's (SNAP) revenue growth fell off a cliff in Q2 as CEO Spiegel cited a challenging macro from inflation to the Russia-Ukraine crisis and did not provide Q3 guidance. While Roku's (ROKU) ad revenue grew 26% in Q2, guidance for the current quarter was >20% below consensus as the team blamed on a weak scatter market and subsequently canceled its full year 2022 outlook. The Trade Desk (TTD) was a blossom in the dessert with 30% growth in Q2 and a beat in Q3 guide was a major surprise to the Street, but that doesn't make Q4 any more predictable given the current economic outlook.</p><p>On the bottom end of the marketing funnel where advertisers are more focused on conversion over impression, Amazon Advertising (AMZN) proved to be highly resilient as consumers are literally standing in front of sellers on the e-commerce site. As much of a giant as Google is, Q2 Search revenue still grew 14% following 24% in Q1. Predicting 2H22 growth was a difficult exercise for analysts as management didn't provide quantitative guides, so the Street isn't getting its hopes up as Search revenue grew 44%/36% in 3Q/4Q21.</p><p>In short, what one can easily conclude for the digital advertising space (as well as for most industries) is that winter is here, and the setup for 2023 doesn't look so good as the economy is heading into a recession if not already in one. The question now becomes: what will Google look like in a 2023 recession?</p><h2>Coming up with the worst case scenario</h2><p>While there are no perfect methods to accurately forecast Google's top and bottom line in a recession (since we have no idea how bad things will be), we can first borrow from history that Google obviously experienced a meaningful decline in revenue growth during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis driven by indiscriminate mortgage lending in the United States of America. Throughout the crisis, Google saw its quarterly revenue growth decelerate materially from +42% in 1Q08 to +18% in 4Q08 and eventually bottomed out at +3% in 2Q09 before re-accelerating to +7% in 3Q09 and +17% 4Q09. For the entire 2008 and 2009, however, revenue still grew 9% and 8%, a highly respectable feat as the world was literally falling apart.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/762c70d4d4202f1382880c6c8ff279e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Company data, Albert Lin</p><p>As bleak as things were, what was frankly a positive surprise to investors was that Google was able to protect its operating margin by containing costs throughout the global recession. While year-over-year top-line growth slowed from over 40% to single digits, changes in operating expenses were largely in line with revenue. OPEX actually declined for two consecutive quarters in 2009 and only ramped up in Q4 when revenue growth was back to double digits.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0db9de48c20d2d341cd29315ee5177f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Company data, Albert Lin</p><p>Now that we have a basic understanding of how Google fared in the 2008 recession, we can assume with some degree of confidence that Google will at least be able to demonstrate flexibility on the expense side of the equation should top-line growth begin to slow materially in the next (or current) recession.</p><p>The question now is how much revenue growth will fall. Since digital advertising was still in its infancy back in 2008, it's conceivable that digital ad budgets will likely experience a bigger impact today given the >65% penetration vs. 12% back then. For this reason, we can probably imagine a worst case scenario of 0% revenue growth in 2023 vs. +8% in 2009. Given Google is still very much an advertising company, we will focus exclusively on the Google Services segment (90% of revenue) for now.</p><p>The current 2022 consensus calls for Google Services revenue of ~$264 billion, which implies an 11% YoY growth on an exceptional 41% growth in 2021. Operating income is estimated to come in at ~$95 billion for an EBIT margin of 36% vs. 39% in 2021. With an effective tax rate of 16%, Google Services should generate net income of ~$80 billion and EPS of $6.09 in 2022.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e0b914de067418218358e4b8bf67149\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Company data, Albert Lin</p><p>Based on how Google managed costs during the 2008 recession, I'd expect OPEX growth to stay flat just like revenue, leading to an EBIT margin of 36% in 2023. Already, CEO Sundar Pichai has indicated that he wants to make Google 20% more efficient. Assume the same 16% tax rate, this should come down to an estimated EPS of $6.26. The ~3% increase in EPS primarily comes from buybacks, for which Google has plenty of financial firepower. At the end of 2Q22, Google had $58.9 billion remaining in its buyback program after approving $70 billion for share repurchase in April 2022. There's $125 billion of cash on the balance sheet, which indicates a strong possibility for more buybacks in the future.</p><p>During the Global Financial Crisis, Google's P/E multiple contracted from 33x in 4Q07 to 12x in 4Q08. Applying the same trough multiple of 12x, we can arrive at a per share value of $75 for Google Services in 2023. At this price, markets should have sufficiently priced in a full blown recession and investors would theoretically be paying $0 for Google Cloud and Other Bets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af898d136c328d1e49059b6da2263234\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Company data, Albert Lin</p><p>It's unclear how Google Cloud will perform in a recession given cloud migration is more of a structural vs. cyclical story, but suppose Google Cloud grows 30% in 2022 and growth gets cut in half to 15% in 2023, Cloud revenue is estimated at $28.7 billion or $2.24 on a per share basis next year. Applying a depressed 2x P/S multiple should give us a value of $4 a share. Taken altogether, <b>we should have a worst case scenario of $79 for Google's shares in a recessionary environment.</b></p><h2>Final thoughts</h2><p>The bad news is Google's stock may have a 20% downside if markets are to price in a full-blown recession. The good news is Google was able to demonstrate strong resiliency in managing its bottom line in the last economic recession. Net-net, I continue to see Google as a high-quality company that should fare relatively better than most in this recession and would remain on the buy side to capitalize on further price weakness going forward.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Google: Here's The Worst Case Scenario</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoogle: Here's The Worst Case Scenario\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-25 14:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542863-google-worst-case-scenario><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I've previously written a number of articles discussing the resiliency of Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) business during a recession and why investors should not worry about the search engine...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542863-google-worst-case-scenario\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542863-google-worst-case-scenario","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2269494309","content_text":"I've previously written a number of articles discussing the resiliency of Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) business during a recession and why investors should not worry about the search engine giant however depressing the current macro narrative may be. Having repeatedly received questions as to what exactly will happen to shares of Google in a recession, I've decided to come up with an analysis of an absolute worst case scenario for 2023.Digital advertising in 2022It's important to first understand the state of the digital advertising sector to get a sense of how things are progressing in a post-Covid environment. While all players in the space saw positive top-line growth in 1Q22, challenges began to surface in Q2 as companies lapped tough 2021 comps. More importantly, the outlook provided by most management teams was frankly terrifying.Company, consensus estimates, Albert LinMeta (META), the largest social media platform in the world, reported negative revenue growth in Q2 and provided Q3 revenue guidance that was 10% below Street estimates as management pointed to worsening macro conditions. Snap's (SNAP) revenue growth fell off a cliff in Q2 as CEO Spiegel cited a challenging macro from inflation to the Russia-Ukraine crisis and did not provide Q3 guidance. While Roku's (ROKU) ad revenue grew 26% in Q2, guidance for the current quarter was >20% below consensus as the team blamed on a weak scatter market and subsequently canceled its full year 2022 outlook. The Trade Desk (TTD) was a blossom in the dessert with 30% growth in Q2 and a beat in Q3 guide was a major surprise to the Street, but that doesn't make Q4 any more predictable given the current economic outlook.On the bottom end of the marketing funnel where advertisers are more focused on conversion over impression, Amazon Advertising (AMZN) proved to be highly resilient as consumers are literally standing in front of sellers on the e-commerce site. As much of a giant as Google is, Q2 Search revenue still grew 14% following 24% in Q1. Predicting 2H22 growth was a difficult exercise for analysts as management didn't provide quantitative guides, so the Street isn't getting its hopes up as Search revenue grew 44%/36% in 3Q/4Q21.In short, what one can easily conclude for the digital advertising space (as well as for most industries) is that winter is here, and the setup for 2023 doesn't look so good as the economy is heading into a recession if not already in one. The question now becomes: what will Google look like in a 2023 recession?Coming up with the worst case scenarioWhile there are no perfect methods to accurately forecast Google's top and bottom line in a recession (since we have no idea how bad things will be), we can first borrow from history that Google obviously experienced a meaningful decline in revenue growth during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis driven by indiscriminate mortgage lending in the United States of America. Throughout the crisis, Google saw its quarterly revenue growth decelerate materially from +42% in 1Q08 to +18% in 4Q08 and eventually bottomed out at +3% in 2Q09 before re-accelerating to +7% in 3Q09 and +17% 4Q09. For the entire 2008 and 2009, however, revenue still grew 9% and 8%, a highly respectable feat as the world was literally falling apart.Company data, Albert LinAs bleak as things were, what was frankly a positive surprise to investors was that Google was able to protect its operating margin by containing costs throughout the global recession. While year-over-year top-line growth slowed from over 40% to single digits, changes in operating expenses were largely in line with revenue. OPEX actually declined for two consecutive quarters in 2009 and only ramped up in Q4 when revenue growth was back to double digits.Company data, Albert LinNow that we have a basic understanding of how Google fared in the 2008 recession, we can assume with some degree of confidence that Google will at least be able to demonstrate flexibility on the expense side of the equation should top-line growth begin to slow materially in the next (or current) recession.The question now is how much revenue growth will fall. Since digital advertising was still in its infancy back in 2008, it's conceivable that digital ad budgets will likely experience a bigger impact today given the >65% penetration vs. 12% back then. For this reason, we can probably imagine a worst case scenario of 0% revenue growth in 2023 vs. +8% in 2009. Given Google is still very much an advertising company, we will focus exclusively on the Google Services segment (90% of revenue) for now.The current 2022 consensus calls for Google Services revenue of ~$264 billion, which implies an 11% YoY growth on an exceptional 41% growth in 2021. Operating income is estimated to come in at ~$95 billion for an EBIT margin of 36% vs. 39% in 2021. With an effective tax rate of 16%, Google Services should generate net income of ~$80 billion and EPS of $6.09 in 2022.Company data, Albert LinBased on how Google managed costs during the 2008 recession, I'd expect OPEX growth to stay flat just like revenue, leading to an EBIT margin of 36% in 2023. Already, CEO Sundar Pichai has indicated that he wants to make Google 20% more efficient. Assume the same 16% tax rate, this should come down to an estimated EPS of $6.26. The ~3% increase in EPS primarily comes from buybacks, for which Google has plenty of financial firepower. At the end of 2Q22, Google had $58.9 billion remaining in its buyback program after approving $70 billion for share repurchase in April 2022. There's $125 billion of cash on the balance sheet, which indicates a strong possibility for more buybacks in the future.During the Global Financial Crisis, Google's P/E multiple contracted from 33x in 4Q07 to 12x in 4Q08. Applying the same trough multiple of 12x, we can arrive at a per share value of $75 for Google Services in 2023. At this price, markets should have sufficiently priced in a full blown recession and investors would theoretically be paying $0 for Google Cloud and Other Bets.Company data, Albert LinIt's unclear how Google Cloud will perform in a recession given cloud migration is more of a structural vs. cyclical story, but suppose Google Cloud grows 30% in 2022 and growth gets cut in half to 15% in 2023, Cloud revenue is estimated at $28.7 billion or $2.24 on a per share basis next year. Applying a depressed 2x P/S multiple should give us a value of $4 a share. Taken altogether, we should have a worst case scenario of $79 for Google's shares in a recessionary environment.Final thoughtsThe bad news is Google's stock may have a 20% downside if markets are to price in a full-blown recession. The good news is Google was able to demonstrate strong resiliency in managing its bottom line in the last economic recession. Net-net, I continue to see Google as a high-quality company that should fare relatively better than most in this recession and would remain on the buy side to capitalize on further price weakness going forward.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":23,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124021710,"gmtCreate":1624709506930,"gmtModify":1703843974020,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"k","listText":"k","text":"k","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124021710","repostId":"1192755033","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":42,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115638123,"gmtCreate":1622983336062,"gmtModify":1704194058451,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":" t","listText":" t","text":"t","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115638123","repostId":"2141285413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141285413","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622971587,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141285413?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-06 17:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“破防”的房多多，还有哪些资本好故事？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141285413","media":"节点财经","summary":"从2001年至今，房多多刚好走过了10年时间。从最初借鉴Groupon模式启程，几经演变后，房多多顶着“产业互联网SaaS第一股”的光环上市。\n如今，光环开始褪去，房多多的自身的定位、持续的亏损以及二","content":"<p>从2001年至今，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUO\">房多多</a>刚好走过了10年时间。从最初借鉴Groupon模式启程，几经演变后，房多多顶着“产业互联网SaaS第一股”的光环上市。</p>\n<p>如今，光环开始褪去，房多多的自身的定位、持续的亏损以及二级市场的表现等多个方面出现了不利因素——SaaS故事“不灵”、资本市场股价不温不火、行业的竞争也在加剧之外，房多多的盈利能力转弱。</p>\n<p>近期，房多多发布了今年一季度财报，财报显示，房多多经调整后的净亏损为9300万元。亏损再一次加剧，房多多似乎正在面临全线“破防”？</p>\n<p> / 01 /</p>\n<p>故事破防</p>\n<p>“房产SaaS第一股”如何讲下去？</p>\n<p>2010年时，房多多的三位创始人认为互联网虽然发展如火如荼，但是距离两个行业很远，其一是房地产，其二是医疗。三位创始人中，曾熙和段毅都是房产销售出身，通过互联网改造房地产市场就成为他们创业的方向，房多多应运而生。</p>\n<p>房多多能快速成长，与当时行业的环境有极大的关系。当时，中国房地产交易效率极低，互联网对房地产行业的渗透还处在非常弱的阶段。行业有痛点和改造的需求，房多多以“通过互联网化的工具为经纪人提高效率”为初衷，刚好补上了这个产业链上所欠缺的环节。</p>\n<p>在发展最初阶段，房多多通过向买房者卖优惠券的方式来实现盈利，即通过与开发商合作获得购房优惠券，然后把优惠券通过经纪人卖给客户，与经纪人进行分成。这种模式延续了4、5年后，行业发生了重要的变化——房子好卖了，不需要打折也有人抢着买。</p>\n<p>于是房多多开始向开发商收佣金，由经纪人带客，成交以后给房多多付佣金。时至今日，这仍然是房多多最主要的收入来源。</p>\n<p>近几年，“三道红线”的高压之下，房地产行业逐步走进存量时代。房多多打出了自己新的标签：“SaaS”服务。简单理解，就是帮助开发商实现数字化，打通经纪人的数字化平台。也就是说房多多在做出了平台之后，开始做标准化的产品，提供To B服务。</p>\n<p>房多多联席CEO曾熙曾表示，“房多多就是想做一家既帮助上游开发商实现互联网化的SaaS服务公司，又帮助下游经纪公司实现SaaS化的服务公司。”</p>\n<p>讲出这个“故事”后，房多多从一家房产交易平台摇身一变成了科技企业。2019年，房多多在纳斯达克上市时，就顶着“产业互联网SaaS第一股”的超级光环。</p>\n<p>但这个“故事”并不是那么好讲，光环背后阴影面不小。近几年，房多多一直被业内质疑SaaS的属性。原因是，从收入结构看，房多多佣金及手续费占比长期维持在90%以上，包含SaaS服务的创新业务收入占比不足10%。</p>\n<p>2017-2020年，佣金及手续费收入及创新业务收入占比分别为91.9%、8.1%；89.1%、10.9%；96.0%、4.0%；90.7%、9.3%。2017年到2020年，创新业务收入分别为1.46亿、2.48亿、1.44亿、2.28亿，可以看出，SaaS服务所带来的营收并不高，且占比很小。房多多还是一家靠佣金赚钱的公司。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797e193abbaff10e77690a5e46d9d36c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：房多多财报、wind</p>\n<p>美国房产科技公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>也以SaaS为核心，但营收中，SaaS工具及解决方案贡献收入接近70%。可见房多多距离自己提出的“房地产淘宝”目标还有相当的距离。</p>\n<p>去年四季度，房多多将旗下SaaS全面升级为服务产业上下游全场景数字化营销的房云SaaS，帮助开发商在线精准直连、快速启动经纪人，试图通过这一方式一边提升房地产交易的房源和客源的匹配效率，另一边控制营销成本。但从刚刚发布的一季度财报看，并未如达到房多多的期待。</p>\n<p> / 02 /</p>\n<p>盈利破防</p>\n<p>上市即高光，盈利能力一路下滑</p>\n<p>近期，房多多公布了最新的季度财报。财报显示，2021年一季度，房多多营收为2.910亿元，净亏损为1.02亿元。非美国会计准则（Non-GAAP）下，房多多2021年第一季度经调整后的净亏损为9300万元。</p>\n<p>如果将上市作为分水岭，那么上市前，房多多的营收呈逐年增长，而自上市后，房多多的亏损正在不断扩大。</p>\n<p>上市前的房多多，2017-2019年营收分别为17.985亿元、22.822亿元、36亿元。而上市后则开始走下坡路，从2020年第一季度开始，单季度营收分别为2.721亿元、7.377亿元、8.191亿元、6.224亿元。同比分别下滑了-58.52%、-22.20%、-13.59%和-40.57%。</p>\n<p>今年一季度，房多多的营收更下滑至2.91亿元。房多多非但没有借助资本市场腾飞，反而一个下冲，归母净利润负增长，从2020年第一季度至2021年第一季度，房多多归母净利润分别为-1.36亿元、-1399万、2191万元、-9176万元、-1.02亿元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82dd656d8813a53e71e2eaf71afcdac4\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：房多多财报、wind</p>\n<p>业绩下滑原因是疫情吗？</p>\n<p>虽然疫情有所影响，但房多多营收的下降似乎不能完全扣在疫情上。国家统计局数据显示，2020年，全国商品房销售额接近17.4万亿元，同比增长了8.7%。同期，房多多平台上促成的房屋交易额下降了14%。</p>\n<p>同一时间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>营业收入为705亿元，同比增长53.2%；全年净利润达27.78亿元，首次实现美国会计准则下的全年盈利。而截至2020年末，贝壳GTV（全年平台总交易额）突破3.5万亿元，GTV增长至3.0倍。</p>\n<p>排除外界因素影响，就剩下另一个至关重要的因素——行业竞争的加剧。</p>\n<p>房多多一直自诩为独立第三方平台，但贝壳、安居客的出现打破这样的平衡。在左晖决定做贝壳时，业内都指责他既做裁判，又做运动员，但从结果看，左晖的选择是正确的。当初，责难声最重的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WUBA\">58同城</a>，如今也将旗下的安居客向同样的方向发展。</p>\n<p>对手们实力强劲，还舍得大手笔投放，通过补贴和佣金迅速占领市场，成为贝壳们快速占领用户心智的方法，但房多多认为恶性补贴不会带来可持续的增长，便放弃了支付补贴的决定。而这一决定让房多多在业务上承压。曾熙也表示，不参与恶性补贴给公司带来了短暂的压力。</p>\n<p>2020年，房多多的交易规模和收入均出现下滑。2020年，房多多促成的总闭环交易GMV(交易总额)1811亿元，同比下降14.0%；实现收入24.5亿元，同比下降31.9%。</p>\n<p>虽然放弃补贴，但是眼看着贝壳市值已经达到644.39亿美元、正在朝向千亿市值进发，房多多也并非不急，去年第四季度，房多多开始大规模的进行品牌推广和宣传，销售费用达到0.32亿元，增幅高达88%，看上去不多，但要知道，而其全年销售费用也只有0.38亿元。</p>\n<p>如今，房地产商也开始在线卖楼，加上互联网巨头的加入，房多多不得不变。此前，房多多一直强调独立第三方的属性，段毅对外界承诺，“做独立平台，不自雇一个经纪人，不开一个线下店；捍卫每一个平台商户的正当利益；不侵占任何一个商户的私有数据。”</p>\n<p>但潜移默化中，这一定位也在改变。去年11月，房多多宣布入股中原集团旗下加盟服务运营平台原萃，借由入股，房多多完成了由线上到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">线上线下</a>的一体化转型之际，但也丢掉了“独立第三方平台”的属性。</p>\n<p>放弃“独立”，是为了有更强的筹码参与竞争，拥抱更大的市场，这是房多多当前想要扭亏最根本的手段和方法。</p>\n<p> / 03 /</p>\n<p>估值“破防”</p>\n<p>竞争加剧、资本市场不买账</p>\n<p>当初顶着高光上市，源自二级市场投资人对SaaS类项目的追捧。尤其是在美国市场，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>、Slack都是这一领域的超级明星。SaaS与产业相结合，给了科技含金量较低的房地产一个充满想象力的明天。</p>\n<p>房多多的SaaS业务跑了几个季度后，业务质地浮上水面。2019年11月，房多多上市时的发行价为13美元，截至6月4日收盘，报价为3.17美元，跌去超过7成。</p>\n<p>SaaS相关的创新服务业务发展几年仍然不见成效，当前，房多多面临两个问题，</p>\n<p>其一、创新服务是否还会持续发力？</p>\n<p>创始团队给出了肯定的答案。曾熙曾表示，房多多有两个核心优势，第一是聚集了中国最大的经纪人群体且高频在线；第二是过去十年积累了提供系统解决方案的能力。“基于这两个优势，我们会坚定不移地去推动开发商更快地上线，帮助开发商建设上线所需要的系统和运营服务。”</p>\n<p>其二、房多多所拥有的核心能力壁垒有多高？</p>\n<p>业内做服务的不少，比如贝壳。目前，贝壳的生态内已经有将近300个品牌，4.7万家门店和近50万经纪人入驻。大量的数据让贝壳拥有强大的数据体系，可以为平台上的经纪人、门店经理还有平台服务人员进行服务，将作业流程线上化。从整体看，这种服务仍然是在房地产交易范围内的线上化操作系统。</p>\n<p>另外一类比较具备代表性的就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">明源云</a>。明源云从企业ERP起家，如今转型为营销SaaS服务商。主要服务对象就是房地产企业。</p>\n<p>可以说目前，主流的传统房地产企业都曾经使用过明源云的ERP系统。</p>\n<p>明源云的SaaS业务主要细分为云客、云链、云采购、云空间等，涵盖房地产开发商运行的各个环节。其中云客（也就是营销端SaaS系统）在疫情环境下增长迅猛。2020年，明源云迅速推出了掌上售楼，集合线上传播、数字展厅、线上开盘等功能。</p>\n<p>值得一提的是，2020年第四季度，房多多也推出房云SaaS。在功能上，房云SaaS旗下自渠宝产品上线门店<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>推荐、商户动态、销售员网店、高意向访客触达提醒等全新功能，帮助案场销售在B端快速启动经纪商户。同时，私域营销工具也同步上线至房云APP，支持开发商发起直播、短视频获客、楼盘一键生成VR、C端用户在线带看等新玩法。</p>\n<p>大家的玩法相似，竞争也无疑会更加激烈。</p>\n<p>从产业端看，有贝壳、安居客等巨头，从SaaS服务看，还有从ERP转型而来的明源云和一众中小玩家。</p>\n<p>房多多还有机会吗？从前者看，房地产经纪呈现强者恒强的互联网属性，规模越大，则实力将越强；而从后者看，2020 年百强房企中，明源云合作了 97 家，客单价从 370 万提升到 610 万元。两个方面总结下来，竞争激烈的行业中，房多多的成绩单算不上优等生，未来需要更强的团队执行力和更快的速度，方有反超的机会。</p>\n<p>今年，房多多发生了一项重要人事变化，刘天旸正式担任房多多高级副总裁。而这位新任的副总裁，目前还任中原集团董事、中原地产（中国内地）副总裁、原萃总裁和几亩置业总裁。</p>\n<p>房多多是原萃的大股东，刘天旸的加盟有何深意？据了解，刘天旸将负责二手房及创新业务，包括二手房交易事业部、挺好住和好房汇业务部。</p>\n<p>二手房，极有可能是房多多继创新业务外下一个业务重点。</p>\n<p>2020年，房多多二手房累计闭环GMV为731亿，同比增长15.26%。而在2020年全年，全国二手房交易金额7.3万亿，创下了自2015年以来最大值的交易额。</p>\n<p>早在2014年，房多多曾投入了大量的资源在二手业务上。但业务发展并不顺利，房多多在2016年把二手房的业务全面地收缩掉，回到了新房主赛道。这一次，重提二手房业务，房多多真的准备好了吗？</p>\n<p>当前，房多多的市值为2.63亿美元，贝壳市值是其245倍。4月份，安居客向港交所提交了上市申请，房产交易市场将迎来又一个巨无霸。面临“破防”的房多多，需要更多变化应对挑战。</p>","source":"jdcj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“破防”的房多多，还有哪些资本好故事？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“破防”的房多多，还有哪些资本好故事？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-06 17:26 北京时间 <a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2021-06-06/doc-ikqciyzi7997555.shtml><strong>节点财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>从2001年至今，房多多刚好走过了10年时间。从最初借鉴Groupon模式启程，几经演变后，房多多顶着“产业互联网SaaS第一股”的光环上市。\n如今，光环开始褪去，房多多的自身的定位、持续的亏损以及二级市场的表现等多个方面出现了不利因素——SaaS故事“不灵”、资本市场股价不温不火、行业的竞争也在加剧之外，房多多的盈利能力转弱。\n近期，房多多发布了今年一季度财报，财报显示，房多多经调整后的净亏损为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2021-06-06/doc-ikqciyzi7997555.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b5d60c72c5bab028f3d7d10da10eef2","relate_stocks":{"DUO":"房多多"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2021-06-06/doc-ikqciyzi7997555.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141285413","content_text":"从2001年至今，房多多刚好走过了10年时间。从最初借鉴Groupon模式启程，几经演变后，房多多顶着“产业互联网SaaS第一股”的光环上市。\n如今，光环开始褪去，房多多的自身的定位、持续的亏损以及二级市场的表现等多个方面出现了不利因素——SaaS故事“不灵”、资本市场股价不温不火、行业的竞争也在加剧之外，房多多的盈利能力转弱。\n近期，房多多发布了今年一季度财报，财报显示，房多多经调整后的净亏损为9300万元。亏损再一次加剧，房多多似乎正在面临全线“破防”？\n / 01 /\n故事破防\n“房产SaaS第一股”如何讲下去？\n2010年时，房多多的三位创始人认为互联网虽然发展如火如荼，但是距离两个行业很远，其一是房地产，其二是医疗。三位创始人中，曾熙和段毅都是房产销售出身，通过互联网改造房地产市场就成为他们创业的方向，房多多应运而生。\n房多多能快速成长，与当时行业的环境有极大的关系。当时，中国房地产交易效率极低，互联网对房地产行业的渗透还处在非常弱的阶段。行业有痛点和改造的需求，房多多以“通过互联网化的工具为经纪人提高效率”为初衷，刚好补上了这个产业链上所欠缺的环节。\n在发展最初阶段，房多多通过向买房者卖优惠券的方式来实现盈利，即通过与开发商合作获得购房优惠券，然后把优惠券通过经纪人卖给客户，与经纪人进行分成。这种模式延续了4、5年后，行业发生了重要的变化——房子好卖了，不需要打折也有人抢着买。\n于是房多多开始向开发商收佣金，由经纪人带客，成交以后给房多多付佣金。时至今日，这仍然是房多多最主要的收入来源。\n近几年，“三道红线”的高压之下，房地产行业逐步走进存量时代。房多多打出了自己新的标签：“SaaS”服务。简单理解，就是帮助开发商实现数字化，打通经纪人的数字化平台。也就是说房多多在做出了平台之后，开始做标准化的产品，提供To B服务。\n房多多联席CEO曾熙曾表示，“房多多就是想做一家既帮助上游开发商实现互联网化的SaaS服务公司，又帮助下游经纪公司实现SaaS化的服务公司。”\n讲出这个“故事”后，房多多从一家房产交易平台摇身一变成了科技企业。2019年，房多多在纳斯达克上市时，就顶着“产业互联网SaaS第一股”的超级光环。\n但这个“故事”并不是那么好讲，光环背后阴影面不小。近几年，房多多一直被业内质疑SaaS的属性。原因是，从收入结构看，房多多佣金及手续费占比长期维持在90%以上，包含SaaS服务的创新业务收入占比不足10%。\n2017-2020年，佣金及手续费收入及创新业务收入占比分别为91.9%、8.1%；89.1%、10.9%；96.0%、4.0%；90.7%、9.3%。2017年到2020年，创新业务收入分别为1.46亿、2.48亿、1.44亿、2.28亿，可以看出，SaaS服务所带来的营收并不高，且占比很小。房多多还是一家靠佣金赚钱的公司。\n\n数据来源：房多多财报、wind\n美国房产科技公司Zillow也以SaaS为核心，但营收中，SaaS工具及解决方案贡献收入接近70%。可见房多多距离自己提出的“房地产淘宝”目标还有相当的距离。\n去年四季度，房多多将旗下SaaS全面升级为服务产业上下游全场景数字化营销的房云SaaS，帮助开发商在线精准直连、快速启动经纪人，试图通过这一方式一边提升房地产交易的房源和客源的匹配效率，另一边控制营销成本。但从刚刚发布的一季度财报看，并未如达到房多多的期待。\n / 02 /\n盈利破防\n上市即高光，盈利能力一路下滑\n近期，房多多公布了最新的季度财报。财报显示，2021年一季度，房多多营收为2.910亿元，净亏损为1.02亿元。非美国会计准则（Non-GAAP）下，房多多2021年第一季度经调整后的净亏损为9300万元。\n如果将上市作为分水岭，那么上市前，房多多的营收呈逐年增长，而自上市后，房多多的亏损正在不断扩大。\n上市前的房多多，2017-2019年营收分别为17.985亿元、22.822亿元、36亿元。而上市后则开始走下坡路，从2020年第一季度开始，单季度营收分别为2.721亿元、7.377亿元、8.191亿元、6.224亿元。同比分别下滑了-58.52%、-22.20%、-13.59%和-40.57%。\n今年一季度，房多多的营收更下滑至2.91亿元。房多多非但没有借助资本市场腾飞，反而一个下冲，归母净利润负增长，从2020年第一季度至2021年第一季度，房多多归母净利润分别为-1.36亿元、-1399万、2191万元、-9176万元、-1.02亿元。\n\n数据来源：房多多财报、wind\n业绩下滑原因是疫情吗？\n虽然疫情有所影响，但房多多营收的下降似乎不能完全扣在疫情上。国家统计局数据显示，2020年，全国商品房销售额接近17.4万亿元，同比增长了8.7%。同期，房多多平台上促成的房屋交易额下降了14%。\n同一时间，贝壳营业收入为705亿元，同比增长53.2%；全年净利润达27.78亿元，首次实现美国会计准则下的全年盈利。而截至2020年末，贝壳GTV（全年平台总交易额）突破3.5万亿元，GTV增长至3.0倍。\n排除外界因素影响，就剩下另一个至关重要的因素——行业竞争的加剧。\n房多多一直自诩为独立第三方平台，但贝壳、安居客的出现打破这样的平衡。在左晖决定做贝壳时，业内都指责他既做裁判，又做运动员，但从结果看，左晖的选择是正确的。当初，责难声最重的58同城，如今也将旗下的安居客向同样的方向发展。\n对手们实力强劲，还舍得大手笔投放，通过补贴和佣金迅速占领市场，成为贝壳们快速占领用户心智的方法，但房多多认为恶性补贴不会带来可持续的增长，便放弃了支付补贴的决定。而这一决定让房多多在业务上承压。曾熙也表示，不参与恶性补贴给公司带来了短暂的压力。\n2020年，房多多的交易规模和收入均出现下滑。2020年，房多多促成的总闭环交易GMV(交易总额)1811亿元，同比下降14.0%；实现收入24.5亿元，同比下降31.9%。\n虽然放弃补贴，但是眼看着贝壳市值已经达到644.39亿美元、正在朝向千亿市值进发，房多多也并非不急，去年第四季度，房多多开始大规模的进行品牌推广和宣传，销售费用达到0.32亿元，增幅高达88%，看上去不多，但要知道，而其全年销售费用也只有0.38亿元。\n如今，房地产商也开始在线卖楼，加上互联网巨头的加入，房多多不得不变。此前，房多多一直强调独立第三方的属性，段毅对外界承诺，“做独立平台，不自雇一个经纪人，不开一个线下店；捍卫每一个平台商户的正当利益；不侵占任何一个商户的私有数据。”\n但潜移默化中，这一定位也在改变。去年11月，房多多宣布入股中原集团旗下加盟服务运营平台原萃，借由入股，房多多完成了由线上到线上线下的一体化转型之际，但也丢掉了“独立第三方平台”的属性。\n放弃“独立”，是为了有更强的筹码参与竞争，拥抱更大的市场，这是房多多当前想要扭亏最根本的手段和方法。\n / 03 /\n估值“破防”\n竞争加剧、资本市场不买账\n当初顶着高光上市，源自二级市场投资人对SaaS类项目的追捧。尤其是在美国市场，Salesforce、Zoom、Slack都是这一领域的超级明星。SaaS与产业相结合，给了科技含金量较低的房地产一个充满想象力的明天。\n房多多的SaaS业务跑了几个季度后，业务质地浮上水面。2019年11月，房多多上市时的发行价为13美元，截至6月4日收盘，报价为3.17美元，跌去超过7成。\nSaaS相关的创新服务业务发展几年仍然不见成效，当前，房多多面临两个问题，\n其一、创新服务是否还会持续发力？\n创始团队给出了肯定的答案。曾熙曾表示，房多多有两个核心优势，第一是聚集了中国最大的经纪人群体且高频在线；第二是过去十年积累了提供系统解决方案的能力。“基于这两个优势，我们会坚定不移地去推动开发商更快地上线，帮助开发商建设上线所需要的系统和运营服务。”\n其二、房多多所拥有的核心能力壁垒有多高？\n业内做服务的不少，比如贝壳。目前，贝壳的生态内已经有将近300个品牌，4.7万家门店和近50万经纪人入驻。大量的数据让贝壳拥有强大的数据体系，可以为平台上的经纪人、门店经理还有平台服务人员进行服务，将作业流程线上化。从整体看，这种服务仍然是在房地产交易范围内的线上化操作系统。\n另外一类比较具备代表性的就是明源云。明源云从企业ERP起家，如今转型为营销SaaS服务商。主要服务对象就是房地产企业。\n可以说目前，主流的传统房地产企业都曾经使用过明源云的ERP系统。\n明源云的SaaS业务主要细分为云客、云链、云采购、云空间等，涵盖房地产开发商运行的各个环节。其中云客（也就是营销端SaaS系统）在疫情环境下增长迅猛。2020年，明源云迅速推出了掌上售楼，集合线上传播、数字展厅、线上开盘等功能。\n值得一提的是，2020年第四季度，房多多也推出房云SaaS。在功能上，房云SaaS旗下自渠宝产品上线门店智能推荐、商户动态、销售员网店、高意向访客触达提醒等全新功能，帮助案场销售在B端快速启动经纪商户。同时，私域营销工具也同步上线至房云APP，支持开发商发起直播、短视频获客、楼盘一键生成VR、C端用户在线带看等新玩法。\n大家的玩法相似，竞争也无疑会更加激烈。\n从产业端看，有贝壳、安居客等巨头，从SaaS服务看，还有从ERP转型而来的明源云和一众中小玩家。\n房多多还有机会吗？从前者看，房地产经纪呈现强者恒强的互联网属性，规模越大，则实力将越强；而从后者看，2020 年百强房企中，明源云合作了 97 家，客单价从 370 万提升到 610 万元。两个方面总结下来，竞争激烈的行业中，房多多的成绩单算不上优等生，未来需要更强的团队执行力和更快的速度，方有反超的机会。\n今年，房多多发生了一项重要人事变化，刘天旸正式担任房多多高级副总裁。而这位新任的副总裁，目前还任中原集团董事、中原地产（中国内地）副总裁、原萃总裁和几亩置业总裁。\n房多多是原萃的大股东，刘天旸的加盟有何深意？据了解，刘天旸将负责二手房及创新业务，包括二手房交易事业部、挺好住和好房汇业务部。\n二手房，极有可能是房多多继创新业务外下一个业务重点。\n2020年，房多多二手房累计闭环GMV为731亿，同比增长15.26%。而在2020年全年，全国二手房交易金额7.3万亿，创下了自2015年以来最大值的交易额。\n早在2014年，房多多曾投入了大量的资源在二手业务上。但业务发展并不顺利，房多多在2016年把二手房的业务全面地收缩掉，回到了新房主赛道。这一次，重提二手房业务，房多多真的准备好了吗？\n当前，房多多的市值为2.63亿美元，贝壳市值是其245倍。4月份，安居客向港交所提交了上市申请，房产交易市场将迎来又一个巨无霸。面临“破防”的房多多，需要更多变化应对挑战。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":60,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112454293,"gmtCreate":1622907538712,"gmtModify":1704193192067,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"d","listText":"d","text":"d","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112454293","repostId":"1195062945","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137310799,"gmtCreate":1622298276611,"gmtModify":1704182813759,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"d","listText":"d","text":"d","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/137310799","repostId":"1139893263","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139893263","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621926753,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139893263?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-25 15:12","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"提醒：因阵亡将士纪念日，5月31日美股休市一日","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139893263","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据悉，5月31日（周一）因美国阵亡将士纪念日，美股市场休市一日，周二起照常交易。5月31日（周一）英股市场因Bank Holiday休市一日，周二起照常交易。港股、A股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。背景","content":"<p>据悉，5月31日（周一）因美国阵亡将士纪念日，美股市场休市一日，周二起照常交易。</p><p>5月31日（周一）英股市场因Bank Holiday休市一日，周二起照常交易。</p><p>港股、A股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。</p><p><b>背景简介：</b></p><p>阵亡将士纪念日（Memorial Day）：是美国大多数州都要纪念的节日，时间原为5月30日，1971年以后，为保证联邦雇员都能享有这一休息日，许多州将它改在5月的最后一个星期一。</p><p>美国南北战争中，无数将士在战火中阵亡。战争结束，南部许多家庭开始祭奠战争中阵亡的将士。他们不分南北双方，在春天向双方死者的墓地都奉献鲜花，北方人为此深受感动，将这一举动视为民族团结的象征。1868年，5月30日这一天被正式批准为向为保卫祖国而英勇牺牲的士兵们敬献鲜花的日子。</p><p>每逢阵亡将士纪念日，美国现役军人和老战士便排成长长的队伍前往墓地，鸣枪向阵亡将士致意，吹响军中熄灯号让死难将士安息。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5ab469653a1d3faf593c83b1649c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提醒：因阵亡将士纪念日，5月31日美股休市一日</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n提醒：因阵亡将士纪念日，5月31日美股休市一日\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-25 15:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据悉，5月31日（周一）因美国阵亡将士纪念日，美股市场休市一日，周二起照常交易。</p><p>5月31日（周一）英股市场因Bank Holiday休市一日，周二起照常交易。</p><p>港股、A股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。</p><p><b>背景简介：</b></p><p>阵亡将士纪念日（Memorial Day）：是美国大多数州都要纪念的节日，时间原为5月30日，1971年以后，为保证联邦雇员都能享有这一休息日，许多州将它改在5月的最后一个星期一。</p><p>美国南北战争中，无数将士在战火中阵亡。战争结束，南部许多家庭开始祭奠战争中阵亡的将士。他们不分南北双方，在春天向双方死者的墓地都奉献鲜花，北方人为此深受感动，将这一举动视为民族团结的象征。1868年，5月30日这一天被正式批准为向为保卫祖国而英勇牺牲的士兵们敬献鲜花的日子。</p><p>每逢阵亡将士纪念日，美国现役军人和老战士便排成长长的队伍前往墓地，鸣枪向阵亡将士致意，吹响军中熄灯号让死难将士安息。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5ab469653a1d3faf593c83b1649c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5ab469653a1d3faf593c83b1649c9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139893263","content_text":"据悉，5月31日（周一）因美国阵亡将士纪念日，美股市场休市一日，周二起照常交易。5月31日（周一）英股市场因Bank Holiday休市一日，周二起照常交易。港股、A股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。背景简介：阵亡将士纪念日（Memorial Day）：是美国大多数州都要纪念的节日，时间原为5月30日，1971年以后，为保证联邦雇员都能享有这一休息日，许多州将它改在5月的最后一个星期一。美国南北战争中，无数将士在战火中阵亡。战争结束，南部许多家庭开始祭奠战争中阵亡的将士。他们不分南北双方，在春天向双方死者的墓地都奉献鲜花，北方人为此深受感动，将这一举动视为民族团结的象征。1868年，5月30日这一天被正式批准为向为保卫祖国而英勇牺牲的士兵们敬献鲜花的日子。每逢阵亡将士纪念日，美国现役军人和老战士便排成长长的队伍前往墓地，鸣枪向阵亡将士致意，吹响军中熄灯号让死难将士安息。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":44,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911202777,"gmtCreate":1664204066500,"gmtModify":1676537409659,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":" o","listText":" o","text":"o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911202777","repostId":"1105206908","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105206908","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664202329,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105206908?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-26 22:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese Education Stocks Rose in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105206908","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Chinese Education Stocks Rose in Morning Trading.New Oriental Education & Technology climbed 12%, Ga","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese Education Stocks Rose in Morning Trading.</p><p>New Oriental Education & Technology climbed 12%, Gaotu Techdu and TAL Education rose between 7% and 8% .</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98e210e74a0e1f961c66ebf449adfd87\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"287\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Education Stocks Rose in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Education Stocks Rose in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-26 22:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese Education Stocks Rose in Morning Trading.</p><p>New Oriental Education & Technology climbed 12%, Gaotu Techdu and TAL Education rose between 7% and 8% .</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98e210e74a0e1f961c66ebf449adfd87\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"287\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"YQ":"一起教育科技","EDU":"新东方"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105206908","content_text":"Chinese Education Stocks Rose in Morning Trading.New Oriental Education & Technology climbed 12%, Gaotu Techdu and TAL Education rose between 7% and 8% .","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937729393,"gmtCreate":1663509945612,"gmtModify":1676537281164,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"v","listText":"v","text":"v","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937729393","repostId":"1175700857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175700857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663468218,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175700857?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-18 10:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175700857","media":"RealMoney","summary":"Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most common advice in a bear market: to build positions by averaging into them.</p><p>In theory, this is a great idea. No one can time the market with great precision, so a good way to build a position is to make smaller buys over a more extended period of time and hopefully end up with a pretty good average entry price.</p><p>There is no disputing the wisdom of entering positions incrementally, especially in a poor market, but executing this strategy can be challenging. The most common mistake is to average into a position too big and fast. When positions are too large in a poor market, there is an increased risk of panic selling.</p><p>The problem is that market participants tend to have a very strong tendency toward premature action. They want to act, and they also want to try to time the exact lows, and the combination of the two tendencies is that they act too early.</p><p><b>Buying Later Rather Than Early Is Better</b></p><p>In previous columns, I have discussed my view that buying later rather than early is better. If you buy after a low has occurred, there are precise support levels, and there is more likely to be sustained upside momentum. When you buy into the teeth of a decline, you have to hope that the downside momentum is about to stop and reverse. When the market is oversold, there can be some good countertrend bounces, but it is extremely hard to predict market lows prospectively.</p><p>Averaging into positions in a bear market probably causes more significant damage to accounts than anything else. The big danger is that the timing is wrong, and the position becomes uncomfortably large and refuses to bounce. This evokes strong emotions and causes panic reactions.</p><p>It is also essential to recognize that there is a risk that maybe you are betting on the wrong stock. Not every stock that sinks in a bear market will rebound when conditions improve. If you keep adding as it goes lower, you are setting yourself up for a major loss. This is another reason why it is important to look for some strength before you add to a position.</p><p>I am a big fan of an incremental approach to trading and investing, but far too many people do it wrong. They are too focused on buying weakness and trying to time the bottom. You have to be willing to add into strength and not just on weakness. People tend to want to buy weakness because there is the illusion that they are getting a bargain, but in investing, you make the big money not by buying the low but by buying a sustained uptrend.</p><p>This is a critical point that most market participants overlook. Just because a stock has found a low doesn't mean it will go up very much. Buying low isn't a great strategy if there isn't any significant high to sell in a reasonably short time frame.</p><p>I highly recommend using the 'average in' strategy, but I would amend it in two ways. First, use short-term volatility to trade the position. If you catch a bounce, then reduce the position and look to rebuy as conditions improve. Second, look to build the core position on strength rather than weakness. Don't just endlessly buy as the price goes lower. Make the stock prove that it has some relative strength before you trust it.</p><p>Averaging into a position is standard bear market advice, but it has to be done right to be effective.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1619508253632","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-18 10:30 GMT+8 <a href=https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208><strong>RealMoney</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175700857","content_text":"Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most common advice in a bear market: to build positions by averaging into them.In theory, this is a great idea. No one can time the market with great precision, so a good way to build a position is to make smaller buys over a more extended period of time and hopefully end up with a pretty good average entry price.There is no disputing the wisdom of entering positions incrementally, especially in a poor market, but executing this strategy can be challenging. The most common mistake is to average into a position too big and fast. When positions are too large in a poor market, there is an increased risk of panic selling.The problem is that market participants tend to have a very strong tendency toward premature action. They want to act, and they also want to try to time the exact lows, and the combination of the two tendencies is that they act too early.Buying Later Rather Than Early Is BetterIn previous columns, I have discussed my view that buying later rather than early is better. If you buy after a low has occurred, there are precise support levels, and there is more likely to be sustained upside momentum. When you buy into the teeth of a decline, you have to hope that the downside momentum is about to stop and reverse. When the market is oversold, there can be some good countertrend bounces, but it is extremely hard to predict market lows prospectively.Averaging into positions in a bear market probably causes more significant damage to accounts than anything else. The big danger is that the timing is wrong, and the position becomes uncomfortably large and refuses to bounce. This evokes strong emotions and causes panic reactions.It is also essential to recognize that there is a risk that maybe you are betting on the wrong stock. Not every stock that sinks in a bear market will rebound when conditions improve. If you keep adding as it goes lower, you are setting yourself up for a major loss. This is another reason why it is important to look for some strength before you add to a position.I am a big fan of an incremental approach to trading and investing, but far too many people do it wrong. They are too focused on buying weakness and trying to time the bottom. You have to be willing to add into strength and not just on weakness. People tend to want to buy weakness because there is the illusion that they are getting a bargain, but in investing, you make the big money not by buying the low but by buying a sustained uptrend.This is a critical point that most market participants overlook. Just because a stock has found a low doesn't mean it will go up very much. Buying low isn't a great strategy if there isn't any significant high to sell in a reasonably short time frame.I highly recommend using the 'average in' strategy, but I would amend it in two ways. First, use short-term volatility to trade the position. If you catch a bounce, then reduce the position and look to rebuy as conditions improve. Second, look to build the core position on strength rather than weakness. Don't just endlessly buy as the price goes lower. Make the stock prove that it has some relative strength before you trust it.Averaging into a position is standard bear market advice, but it has to be done right to be effective.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":36,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832063656,"gmtCreate":1629543099875,"gmtModify":1676530068452,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":" n","listText":" n","text":"n","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832063656","repostId":"2161579746","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2161579746","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629513449,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2161579746?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-21 10:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"个股市值增长千亿，新能源汽市场淡季不淡","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161579746","media":"每经头条","summary":"淡季不淡，是7月全球新能源汽车市场的显著表现。\n在中国市场，7月，新能源乘用车零售销量为22.2万辆，同比增长169.4%；而在欧洲市场，欧洲八国新能源汽车注册量合计12.99万辆，同比增长42%。\n","content":"<p>淡季不淡，是7月全球新能源汽车市场的显著表现。</p>\n<p>在中国市场，7月，新能源乘用车零售销量为22.2万辆，同比增长169.4%；而在欧洲市场，欧洲八<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>汽车注册量合计12.99万辆，同比增长42%。</p>\n<p>在对信息敏感度更高的资本市场中，新能源概念对车企的市值拉动还在继续。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">长城汽车</a>7月市值增长超过千亿元，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600418\">江淮汽车</a>股价同比增幅为42.8%，创下了该股股价近一年来最高月涨幅。以动力电池为首的新能源汽车产业链个股更是接连“飘红”，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">赣锋锂业</a>月度市值增长额超过千亿元。</p>\n<p>新能源汽车在下半年首月的出色成绩，也让外界对其接下来的表现充满更多期许。</p>\n<p>新能源车零售渗透率升至14.8%</p>\n<p>乘联会数据显示，7月我国新能源乘用车零售销量为22.2万辆，同比增长169.4%，环比下降3.2%。跑赢车市整体大盘的同时，新能源汽车也在不断加快对燃油车市场的替代效应，7月新能源车国内零售渗透率为14.8%，较2020年5.8%的渗透率提升了9个百分点。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e402bc82618cab5f31810e0ea5037278\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"783\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">、制表：每经记者 李硕</p>\n<p>1~7月，我国新能源汽车零售销量为122.9万辆，同比增长210.2%。对于新能源汽车市场的火热表现，中国汽车工业协会副总工程师许海东认为，<b>新能源汽车基础设施逐步完善，加之新能源汽车的优惠政策和电动车本身的优势，这些多重因素作用下，市场不断刷新当月纪录，车企新能源汽车销量也持续走高。</b></p>\n<p>“一方面新能源汽车的中高端产品在快速发展，很多在使用B级车的消费者愿意尝试换新能源汽车，也就是说从需求上面消费者愿意买。从产品的供给上，不管是在农村市场，还是在城市的一些年轻人市场，以及城市中的家庭第二台车这种代步市场，都得到了消费者的认可，所以我们觉得是这两方面的综合因素。”许海东表示。</p>\n<p>分车型看，7月高端电动车型销量强势增长，中、低端走势同样强劲。其中A00级电动车批发销量为6万辆，在7月纯电动车整体销量中的占比为30%；A级电动车在当月纯电动车整体销量中所占份额为29%，出现谷底回升；B级电动车销量环比6月持平，在当月纯电动车销量中占比25%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ed8736a25507f580b7857d54c6c0494\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"783\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>制表：每经记者 李硕</p>\n<p>分品牌看，7月国内新能源乘用车市场多元化发力，共有3家企业零售销量破万辆。其中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>以4.58万辆的成绩，蝉联新能源车市头名；上汽通用五菱则以单月3.28万辆的销售成绩位列第二；第三名广汽埃安销量为1.06万辆，与前两名仍存在不小差距。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，7月国内造车新势力的表现也十分亮眼，环比和同比销量均出现大幅增长。其中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>单月销量为8589辆，同比增长251.3%，环比增长11.4%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>销量也突破8000辆大关，7月销量同比增长228%至8040辆，环比增长22%；而此前处于“领跑”位置的蔚来汽车7月交付量为7931辆，环比下降2%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3df3ee11602c8d8bfd48543b18eee019\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>制表：每经记者 李硕</p>\n<p>“下半年随着渠道扩张以及‘缺芯’缓解，预计新势力年内交付仍将保持增长趋势。同时，理想ONE改款和小鹏G3i改款在产品力方面有所提升，对下半年销量预期提供支撑。”招银国际研究员白毅阳认为，造车新势力头部车企的销量爬坡还未见顶，未来12个月，小鹏P5和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>ET7的上市，将带动整体新能源汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>化水平再上台阶。</p>\n<p>相对而言，主流合资品牌中南北大众的新能源车零售销量合计为1.07万辆，占主流合资品牌新能源车总销量的57%，表现强势。而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">豪华</a>车企中，以奔驰、宝马、奥迪等为代表的主流豪华车企正在加速引入纯电动车型，但具体产品接受度如何仍待市场检验。</p>\n<p>新能源汽车出口仍保持高位</p>\n<p>在国内销售成绩亮眼的同时，我国新能源汽车出口市场同样延续着火热态势。</p>\n<p>据中国汽车工业协会副秘书长陈士华介绍，7月新能源汽车出口增长贡献度达到31.5%，呈现较快增长态势。其中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>中国出口2.43万辆，上汽乘用车出口4407辆，比亚迪出口781辆，奇瑞汽车出口120辆，其他车企新能源车出口也正蓄势待发。</p>\n<p>乘联会发布的数据显示，今年上半年，我国新能源汽车出口量为17.33万辆，同比增长151%，跑赢中国汽车出口大盘。车型类别来看，乘用车占比达到75%，货车占比约19%，客车占比约2%，特种车占比约5%。</p>\n<p>“<b>目前我国新能源汽车出口仍处于起步阶段。</b>今年以来，出口市场主要由乘用车拉动，客车等细分领域表现相对疲软。在出口方向上，由于印度、孟加拉等国疫情复燃，我国新能源汽车对南亚市场出口有所放缓。相对而言，欧盟及其成员国政府对新能源汽车的支持力度较大，消费者对新能源汽车接受度较高，汽车市场发展较为成熟，拉动了我国对欧洲新能源汽车的出口量。”全国乘用车市场信息联席会秘书长崔东树表示。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bbdb9cb84867bc0a6fe312f0ec78eab\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>图片来源：每经记者 孙桐桐 摄（资料图）</p>\n<p>中国汽车工业协会副秘书长柳燕认为，在国家政策的引导支持和产业的快速发展下，中国汽车行业在新能源和智能网联汽车赛道上具备了先发优势。此外，中国新能源汽车市场目前占据全球市场份额的50％左右，给自主品牌新能源汽车的发展建立了规模优势。加之科技巨头们纷纷跨界入局，为新能源汽车行业的技术迭代创造了环境，带动了自主品牌新能源汽车在全球范围内的活跃。</p>\n<p>新能源汽车市场的火爆态势同样体现在动力电池装机量上。据中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟发布的数据显示，今年7月，我国动力电池装机量为11.3GWh，同比上升125%，环比上升1.7%。值得注意的是，磷酸铁锂电池以5.8GWh的装机量年内首度超越三元锂电池，表现强势。三元锂电池装机量为5.5GWh，环比下滑8.2%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce67ec58ea7f480fec02b48ec9ebcd65\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>制表：每经记者 李硕</p>\n<p>具体到动力电池供应商来看，7月动力电池装机量排名前三的企业分别是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>、比亚迪和中航锂电，三者合计市场份额提高至73.7%，行业集中度进一步增强。</p>\n<p>值得一提的是，在全球市场与宁德时代争夺第一位置的LG化学本月在国内动力电池装机量排名降至第10位。有观点认为，LG装机量的大幅下滑与特斯拉在国内的销量骤降直接相关。因为出口至国外的销量并不计入动力电池联盟统计的当月装机量中，所以“大客户”特斯拉本月在国内大幅下滑的销量使LG化学装机量受到极大影响。</p>\n<p>充电基础设施方面，2021年7月，我国新增公共充电桩2.70万台。截至2021年7月，全国充电基础设施累计数量为201.5万台，同比增加50.2%；换电站保有量763座。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>分析认为，当前全球电动车行业渗透率仍在低位，长期成长空间依旧广阔。根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">中金公司</a>预测，到2025年全球新能源乘用车渗透率将会达到24.5％，2030年全球新能源乘用车渗透率为50.6％；2025年中国新能源汽车渗透率将有望达25％，年销售量突破600万辆。2020~2025年，电动车行业年化增速约40％，或成为未来几年高速成长的黄金赛道。</p>\n<p>欧洲新能源汽车销量环比下滑三分之一</p>\n<p>数据显示，欧洲八国7月新能源汽车注册量合计为12.99万辆，同比增长42%，环比下降33%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78961e6d0656a9039538f6a907de94f4\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"783\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>制表：每经记者 李硕</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">兴业证券</a>研报认为，受整车销售激励政策影响，欧洲汽车市场普遍呈现季末冲高后季初回调的规律。而特斯拉因库存不足，本月销量下滑严重，法国、西班牙、荷兰、挪威、瑞典五国仅售出54辆Model 3车型。预计本月特斯拉八国销量下降2万辆，占总体减量的32%。</p>\n<p>此外，7月1日起，法国新能源车补贴普遍下调1000欧元，瑞典单车汽车福利税平均每年提高约9000瑞典克朗。消费者在上月抢购后本月需求受挫，销量分别环比下降51%和65%至1.8万辆和0.6万辆，降幅远高于平均水平。剔除特斯拉影响后，两国销量共下降2.4万辆，占总体减量的37%。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，本月欧洲八国插电式混动车型销量为6.85万辆，再度反超纯电动车型6.14万辆的销量成绩。根据欧洲汽车制造协会（ACEA）数据显示，今年上半年，欧洲插电式混动车型市占率达到8.3%，与去年同期相比提升了5个百分点。纯电动车型上半年市占率为6.7%，相比去年同期增长了3.1个百分点。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7883cfdd96e56d1891d2e25ffcefbc7a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>图片来源：每经记者 李硕 摄（资料图）</p>\n<p>美国市场方面，7月美国新能源汽车销量5.8万辆，同比增长138%，环比提升19%，渗透率增至4.3%，环比提升0.7个百分点。其中，纯电动车销量为4.1万辆，同比提高107%，插电混动车销量为1.8万辆，同比增长265%。</p>\n<p>近日，<b>美国新能源车产业设定了新的目标：2030年实现美国境内一半新售汽车为可“零排放”汽车，包括蓄电池电动车、插电式混合动力车、燃料电池车。</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>预计，此次目标设定和相关政策配套后，美国将成为继中国和欧洲外第三个新能源汽车重要增长地，电动化提速是大势所趋。而随着美国电动汽车市场爆发在即，作为三电之一的电池产业链将受益显著，同时也是国内电池产业链海外扩张的机遇。</p>\n<p>开源证券预测，2021、2022年美国电动车销量将分别达到66万辆和97万辆，同比增长101%和47%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">长城汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01772\">赣锋锂业</a>市值增长超千亿元</p>\n<p>7月，A股整车股中出现两匹“黑马”：一是，长城汽车单月市值增长超过千亿元，截至7月最后一个交易日（7月30日）收盘，长城汽车总市值为5587.14亿元，紧跟在比亚迪（002594.SZ）之后；二是，江淮汽车股价同比增幅为42.8%，创下了该股股价近一年来最高月涨幅。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4bd058bb2f707cc7c228dda79ffcfa4\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"1218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>制图：每经记者 段思瑶</p>\n<p>据《每日经济新闻》记者统计，7月，江淮汽车收盘股价出现4次涨停，其中7月21日、7月22日和7月23日连续3个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达20%以上。</p>\n<p>7月底，陆续有传言称，安徽省国资委正在和小米汽车接触，有意将小米汽车引入合肥。直到7月27日晚间，江淮汽车发布澄清公告：“截至目前，公司未与小米就合作造车进行过商议，也未达成任何合作造车的意向”。</p>\n<p>进入8月，江淮汽车股价迅速回落。截至8月17日收盘，江淮汽车股价报15.6元/股，当月股价跌幅为12.11%。</p>\n<p>几家欢喜几家愁。与前述个股不同，在H股市场，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">恒大汽车</a>（00708.HK）市值蒸发了1602.12亿港元。据记者粗略统计，恒大汽车6月、7月合计市值缩水超过2000亿港元。此外，登陆港股市场首月的小鹏汽车（09868.HK）股价下滑9.58%，市值蒸发270.37亿港元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a98fa0b4e7fad94ac07fada8042fc477\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"1033\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>制图：每经记者 段思瑶</p>\n<p>继小鹏汽车之后，“蔚小理”正在相继回流港股。8月12日，理想汽车（2015.HK）正式在香港证券交易所上市敲钟，成为继小鹏汽车之后，第二家同时在中美两地上市的汽车公司。</p>\n<p>有观点认为，尚未实现收支平衡甚至盈利的“蔚小理”，面对国内新能源车市的激烈竞争，需要更多的资金生存下去，当美股市场监管日渐严苛，回港上市未尝不是拓宽融资渠道、降低融资风险的最优解。</p>\n<p>不过，7月“蔚小理”在美股市场的表现难言乐观。其中，小鹏汽车（XPEV）市值缩水了32.91亿美元，理想汽车（LI）市值缩水了14.03亿美元，蔚来（NIO）市值则缩水了139.64亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0adda624ebc5a757c28e2d0054e92180\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"1109\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>制图：每经记者 段思瑶</p>\n<p>同样，7月跨国汽车上市公司中，大部分市值出现缩水。其中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HYUD.UK\">现代汽车</a>、宝马集团市值缩水超过40亿美元，戴姆勒、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">本田汽车</a>、雷诺汽车等市值出现小幅下滑。与“现代汽车们”的“落寞”相比，特斯拉、丰田汽车和日产汽车则要“开心”得多。但从市值增长额上来看，特斯拉、丰田汽车表现均不及6月。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7617ecfe159fd7eddc87b118592f8a7b\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"848\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>制图：每经记者 段思瑶</p>\n<p>要论7月最“春风得意”的汽车股，动力电池个股必须榜上有名。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002466\">天齐锂业</a>（002466.SZ）、赣锋锂业股价涨幅纷纷超过60%，赣锋锂业市值增长额更是超过千亿元，即便是涨幅最小的孚能科技（688567.SH），市值也增加了7.6亿元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a25becf88bbe8d02752dd86c326b9fa\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>制表：每经记者 段思瑶</p>\n<p>一组数据显示，进入今年8月，动力电池指数（884963.WI）继续刷新历史纪录，其中的24家上市公司，<b>市值超过1000亿元的就有7家，超过100亿元的则有23家，无论是市值规模还是公司数量，都已经明显超过A股整车企业的表现。</b></p>\n<p>机构资金成为推动动力电池板块的上涨主要动力之一。据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">东方财富</a>披露数据显示，近1个月，机构席位净买入赣锋锂业、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002176\">江特电机</a>（002176.SZ）的金额均超过6亿元，此外，净买入天齐锂业5.16亿元，净买入比亚迪、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002240\">盛新锂能</a>超3亿元。</p>\n<p>下半场比拼开始</p>\n<p>随着政策端和生产端的加力，新能源汽车在全球市场的下半场比拼已经开始。</p>\n<p>据新华社报道，中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，要求要<b>挖掘国内市场潜力，支持新能源汽车加快发展。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601788\">光大证券</a>研报认为，预计下半年新能源汽车政策与消费环境有望持续向好。</p>\n<p><b>从目前来看，地方政府对新能源汽车的政策支持仍处于“鼎盛期”。</b>8月5日，佛山出台新能源汽车补贴方案，拟对汽车销售企业扩大汽车销售规模进行奖励（最高奖励100万元）；对消费者购买新能源汽车进行补贴（最高补贴2万元）。</p>\n<p>中国市场之外，美国也在大力支持本土新能源汽车发展，明确到2030年无排放汽车销量比例达50%，预计未来相应支持政策将持续加码，美国电动车市场将继续加速增长，成为今年全球电动车市场边际改善亮点。</p>\n<p>政策的持续向好，更加坚定了车企的电动化转型。7月22日，梅赛德斯-奔驰宣布开启全面电动化战略，至2025年，奔驰纯电和插电混动车型销量占比达到50%；大众汽车也宣布到，2030年其电动汽车的销量将占其总销量的50%，未来汽车产业的利润和收入来源将从燃油车逐渐转向纯电动车。</p>\n<p>面对外资竞争对手在电动车领域加速布局，特斯拉价格逐渐下探，未来 3~5 年自主品牌需要抓住超越外资品牌的宝贵窗口期，迅速扩大规模，放大优势。目前，蔚来汽车已经宣布将推出主攻主流大众市场的品牌。</p>\n<p>平安证券分析师王德安认为，智能电动车赛道也许并不存在“小而美”这一生存选项，在对手都已逐步搭建多品牌梯队的攻势下，新势力们以各种手段快速扩大规模或成必然选择。</p>\n<p>有统计显示，今年下半年国产特斯拉、上汽通用五菱、比亚迪、南北大众等持续放量，叠加新车型小鹏P5、北汽极狐、吉利极氪等集中上市，国内新能源汽车市场的看点也越来越多。</p>","source":"lsy1578007743344","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>个股市值增长千亿，新能源汽市场淡季不淡</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n个股市值增长千亿，新能源汽市场淡季不淡\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-21 10:37 北京时间 <a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/450165.html><strong>每经头条</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>淡季不淡，是7月全球新能源汽车市场的显著表现。\n在中国市场，7月，新能源乘用车零售销量为22.2万辆，同比增长169.4%；而在欧洲市场，欧洲八国新能源汽车注册量合计12.99万辆，同比增长42%。\n在对信息敏感度更高的资本市场中，新能源概念对车企的市值拉动还在继续。长城汽车7月市值增长超过千亿元，江淮汽车股价同比增幅为42.8%，创下了该股股价近一年来最高月涨幅。以动力电池为首的新能源汽车产业链...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/450165.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cf4cb1ed8765509e43e489df30550af","relate_stocks":{"02015":"理想汽车-W","000941.SH":"新能源","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/450165.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161579746","content_text":"淡季不淡，是7月全球新能源汽车市场的显著表现。\n在中国市场，7月，新能源乘用车零售销量为22.2万辆，同比增长169.4%；而在欧洲市场，欧洲八国新能源汽车注册量合计12.99万辆，同比增长42%。\n在对信息敏感度更高的资本市场中，新能源概念对车企的市值拉动还在继续。长城汽车7月市值增长超过千亿元，江淮汽车股价同比增幅为42.8%，创下了该股股价近一年来最高月涨幅。以动力电池为首的新能源汽车产业链个股更是接连“飘红”，赣锋锂业月度市值增长额超过千亿元。\n新能源汽车在下半年首月的出色成绩，也让外界对其接下来的表现充满更多期许。\n新能源车零售渗透率升至14.8%\n乘联会数据显示，7月我国新能源乘用车零售销量为22.2万辆，同比增长169.4%，环比下降3.2%。跑赢车市整体大盘的同时，新能源汽车也在不断加快对燃油车市场的替代效应，7月新能源车国内零售渗透率为14.8%，较2020年5.8%的渗透率提升了9个百分点。\n、制表：每经记者 李硕\n1~7月，我国新能源汽车零售销量为122.9万辆，同比增长210.2%。对于新能源汽车市场的火热表现，中国汽车工业协会副总工程师许海东认为，新能源汽车基础设施逐步完善，加之新能源汽车的优惠政策和电动车本身的优势，这些多重因素作用下，市场不断刷新当月纪录，车企新能源汽车销量也持续走高。\n“一方面新能源汽车的中高端产品在快速发展，很多在使用B级车的消费者愿意尝试换新能源汽车，也就是说从需求上面消费者愿意买。从产品的供给上，不管是在农村市场，还是在城市的一些年轻人市场，以及城市中的家庭第二台车这种代步市场，都得到了消费者的认可，所以我们觉得是这两方面的综合因素。”许海东表示。\n分车型看，7月高端电动车型销量强势增长，中、低端走势同样强劲。其中A00级电动车批发销量为6万辆，在7月纯电动车整体销量中的占比为30%；A级电动车在当月纯电动车整体销量中所占份额为29%，出现谷底回升；B级电动车销量环比6月持平，在当月纯电动车销量中占比25%。\n制表：每经记者 李硕\n分品牌看，7月国内新能源乘用车市场多元化发力，共有3家企业零售销量破万辆。其中，比亚迪以4.58万辆的成绩，蝉联新能源车市头名；上汽通用五菱则以单月3.28万辆的销售成绩位列第二；第三名广汽埃安销量为1.06万辆，与前两名仍存在不小差距。\n值得注意的是，7月国内造车新势力的表现也十分亮眼，环比和同比销量均出现大幅增长。其中，理想汽车单月销量为8589辆，同比增长251.3%，环比增长11.4%；小鹏汽车销量也突破8000辆大关，7月销量同比增长228%至8040辆，环比增长22%；而此前处于“领跑”位置的蔚来汽车7月交付量为7931辆，环比下降2%。\n\n制表：每经记者 李硕\n“下半年随着渠道扩张以及‘缺芯’缓解，预计新势力年内交付仍将保持增长趋势。同时，理想ONE改款和小鹏G3i改款在产品力方面有所提升，对下半年销量预期提供支撑。”招银国际研究员白毅阳认为，造车新势力头部车企的销量爬坡还未见顶，未来12个月，小鹏P5和蔚来ET7的上市，将带动整体新能源汽车智能化水平再上台阶。\n相对而言，主流合资品牌中南北大众的新能源车零售销量合计为1.07万辆，占主流合资品牌新能源车总销量的57%，表现强势。而豪华车企中，以奔驰、宝马、奥迪等为代表的主流豪华车企正在加速引入纯电动车型，但具体产品接受度如何仍待市场检验。\n新能源汽车出口仍保持高位\n在国内销售成绩亮眼的同时，我国新能源汽车出口市场同样延续着火热态势。\n据中国汽车工业协会副秘书长陈士华介绍，7月新能源汽车出口增长贡献度达到31.5%，呈现较快增长态势。其中，特斯拉中国出口2.43万辆，上汽乘用车出口4407辆，比亚迪出口781辆，奇瑞汽车出口120辆，其他车企新能源车出口也正蓄势待发。\n乘联会发布的数据显示，今年上半年，我国新能源汽车出口量为17.33万辆，同比增长151%，跑赢中国汽车出口大盘。车型类别来看，乘用车占比达到75%，货车占比约19%，客车占比约2%，特种车占比约5%。\n“目前我国新能源汽车出口仍处于起步阶段。今年以来，出口市场主要由乘用车拉动，客车等细分领域表现相对疲软。在出口方向上，由于印度、孟加拉等国疫情复燃，我国新能源汽车对南亚市场出口有所放缓。相对而言，欧盟及其成员国政府对新能源汽车的支持力度较大，消费者对新能源汽车接受度较高，汽车市场发展较为成熟，拉动了我国对欧洲新能源汽车的出口量。”全国乘用车市场信息联席会秘书长崔东树表示。\n\n图片来源：每经记者 孙桐桐 摄（资料图）\n中国汽车工业协会副秘书长柳燕认为，在国家政策的引导支持和产业的快速发展下，中国汽车行业在新能源和智能网联汽车赛道上具备了先发优势。此外，中国新能源汽车市场目前占据全球市场份额的50％左右，给自主品牌新能源汽车的发展建立了规模优势。加之科技巨头们纷纷跨界入局，为新能源汽车行业的技术迭代创造了环境，带动了自主品牌新能源汽车在全球范围内的活跃。\n新能源汽车市场的火爆态势同样体现在动力电池装机量上。据中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟发布的数据显示，今年7月，我国动力电池装机量为11.3GWh，同比上升125%，环比上升1.7%。值得注意的是，磷酸铁锂电池以5.8GWh的装机量年内首度超越三元锂电池，表现强势。三元锂电池装机量为5.5GWh，环比下滑8.2%。\n\n制表：每经记者 李硕\n具体到动力电池供应商来看，7月动力电池装机量排名前三的企业分别是宁德时代、比亚迪和中航锂电，三者合计市场份额提高至73.7%，行业集中度进一步增强。\n值得一提的是，在全球市场与宁德时代争夺第一位置的LG化学本月在国内动力电池装机量排名降至第10位。有观点认为，LG装机量的大幅下滑与特斯拉在国内的销量骤降直接相关。因为出口至国外的销量并不计入动力电池联盟统计的当月装机量中，所以“大客户”特斯拉本月在国内大幅下滑的销量使LG化学装机量受到极大影响。\n充电基础设施方面，2021年7月，我国新增公共充电桩2.70万台。截至2021年7月，全国充电基础设施累计数量为201.5万台，同比增加50.2%；换电站保有量763座。\n中金公司分析认为，当前全球电动车行业渗透率仍在低位，长期成长空间依旧广阔。根据中金公司预测，到2025年全球新能源乘用车渗透率将会达到24.5％，2030年全球新能源乘用车渗透率为50.6％；2025年中国新能源汽车渗透率将有望达25％，年销售量突破600万辆。2020~2025年，电动车行业年化增速约40％，或成为未来几年高速成长的黄金赛道。\n欧洲新能源汽车销量环比下滑三分之一\n数据显示，欧洲八国7月新能源汽车注册量合计为12.99万辆，同比增长42%，环比下降33%。\n\n制表：每经记者 李硕\n兴业证券研报认为，受整车销售激励政策影响，欧洲汽车市场普遍呈现季末冲高后季初回调的规律。而特斯拉因库存不足，本月销量下滑严重，法国、西班牙、荷兰、挪威、瑞典五国仅售出54辆Model 3车型。预计本月特斯拉八国销量下降2万辆，占总体减量的32%。\n此外，7月1日起，法国新能源车补贴普遍下调1000欧元，瑞典单车汽车福利税平均每年提高约9000瑞典克朗。消费者在上月抢购后本月需求受挫，销量分别环比下降51%和65%至1.8万辆和0.6万辆，降幅远高于平均水平。剔除特斯拉影响后，两国销量共下降2.4万辆，占总体减量的37%。\n值得注意的是，本月欧洲八国插电式混动车型销量为6.85万辆，再度反超纯电动车型6.14万辆的销量成绩。根据欧洲汽车制造协会（ACEA）数据显示，今年上半年，欧洲插电式混动车型市占率达到8.3%，与去年同期相比提升了5个百分点。纯电动车型上半年市占率为6.7%，相比去年同期增长了3.1个百分点。\n\n图片来源：每经记者 李硕 摄（资料图）\n美国市场方面，7月美国新能源汽车销量5.8万辆，同比增长138%，环比提升19%，渗透率增至4.3%，环比提升0.7个百分点。其中，纯电动车销量为4.1万辆，同比提高107%，插电混动车销量为1.8万辆，同比增长265%。\n近日，美国新能源车产业设定了新的目标：2030年实现美国境内一半新售汽车为可“零排放”汽车，包括蓄电池电动车、插电式混合动力车、燃料电池车。\n东吴证券预计，此次目标设定和相关政策配套后，美国将成为继中国和欧洲外第三个新能源汽车重要增长地，电动化提速是大势所趋。而随着美国电动汽车市场爆发在即，作为三电之一的电池产业链将受益显著，同时也是国内电池产业链海外扩张的机遇。\n开源证券预测，2021、2022年美国电动车销量将分别达到66万辆和97万辆，同比增长101%和47%。\n长城汽车、赣锋锂业市值增长超千亿元\n7月，A股整车股中出现两匹“黑马”：一是，长城汽车单月市值增长超过千亿元，截至7月最后一个交易日（7月30日）收盘，长城汽车总市值为5587.14亿元，紧跟在比亚迪（002594.SZ）之后；二是，江淮汽车股价同比增幅为42.8%，创下了该股股价近一年来最高月涨幅。\n\n制图：每经记者 段思瑶\n据《每日经济新闻》记者统计，7月，江淮汽车收盘股价出现4次涨停，其中7月21日、7月22日和7月23日连续3个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达20%以上。\n7月底，陆续有传言称，安徽省国资委正在和小米汽车接触，有意将小米汽车引入合肥。直到7月27日晚间，江淮汽车发布澄清公告：“截至目前，公司未与小米就合作造车进行过商议，也未达成任何合作造车的意向”。\n进入8月，江淮汽车股价迅速回落。截至8月17日收盘，江淮汽车股价报15.6元/股，当月股价跌幅为12.11%。\n几家欢喜几家愁。与前述个股不同，在H股市场，恒大汽车（00708.HK）市值蒸发了1602.12亿港元。据记者粗略统计，恒大汽车6月、7月合计市值缩水超过2000亿港元。此外，登陆港股市场首月的小鹏汽车（09868.HK）股价下滑9.58%，市值蒸发270.37亿港元。\n\n制图：每经记者 段思瑶\n继小鹏汽车之后，“蔚小理”正在相继回流港股。8月12日，理想汽车（2015.HK）正式在香港证券交易所上市敲钟，成为继小鹏汽车之后，第二家同时在中美两地上市的汽车公司。\n有观点认为，尚未实现收支平衡甚至盈利的“蔚小理”，面对国内新能源车市的激烈竞争，需要更多的资金生存下去，当美股市场监管日渐严苛，回港上市未尝不是拓宽融资渠道、降低融资风险的最优解。\n不过，7月“蔚小理”在美股市场的表现难言乐观。其中，小鹏汽车（XPEV）市值缩水了32.91亿美元，理想汽车（LI）市值缩水了14.03亿美元，蔚来（NIO）市值则缩水了139.64亿美元。\n\n制图：每经记者 段思瑶\n同样，7月跨国汽车上市公司中，大部分市值出现缩水。其中现代汽车、宝马集团市值缩水超过40亿美元，戴姆勒、本田汽车、雷诺汽车等市值出现小幅下滑。与“现代汽车们”的“落寞”相比，特斯拉、丰田汽车和日产汽车则要“开心”得多。但从市值增长额上来看，特斯拉、丰田汽车表现均不及6月。\n\n制图：每经记者 段思瑶\n要论7月最“春风得意”的汽车股，动力电池个股必须榜上有名。天齐锂业（002466.SZ）、赣锋锂业股价涨幅纷纷超过60%，赣锋锂业市值增长额更是超过千亿元，即便是涨幅最小的孚能科技（688567.SH），市值也增加了7.6亿元。\n\n制表：每经记者 段思瑶\n一组数据显示，进入今年8月，动力电池指数（884963.WI）继续刷新历史纪录，其中的24家上市公司，市值超过1000亿元的就有7家，超过100亿元的则有23家，无论是市值规模还是公司数量，都已经明显超过A股整车企业的表现。\n机构资金成为推动动力电池板块的上涨主要动力之一。据东方财富披露数据显示，近1个月，机构席位净买入赣锋锂业、江特电机（002176.SZ）的金额均超过6亿元，此外，净买入天齐锂业5.16亿元，净买入比亚迪、盛新锂能超3亿元。\n下半场比拼开始\n随着政策端和生产端的加力，新能源汽车在全球市场的下半场比拼已经开始。\n据新华社报道，中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，要求要挖掘国内市场潜力，支持新能源汽车加快发展。光大证券研报认为，预计下半年新能源汽车政策与消费环境有望持续向好。\n从目前来看，地方政府对新能源汽车的政策支持仍处于“鼎盛期”。8月5日，佛山出台新能源汽车补贴方案，拟对汽车销售企业扩大汽车销售规模进行奖励（最高奖励100万元）；对消费者购买新能源汽车进行补贴（最高补贴2万元）。\n中国市场之外，美国也在大力支持本土新能源汽车发展，明确到2030年无排放汽车销量比例达50%，预计未来相应支持政策将持续加码，美国电动车市场将继续加速增长，成为今年全球电动车市场边际改善亮点。\n政策的持续向好，更加坚定了车企的电动化转型。7月22日，梅赛德斯-奔驰宣布开启全面电动化战略，至2025年，奔驰纯电和插电混动车型销量占比达到50%；大众汽车也宣布到，2030年其电动汽车的销量将占其总销量的50%，未来汽车产业的利润和收入来源将从燃油车逐渐转向纯电动车。\n面对外资竞争对手在电动车领域加速布局，特斯拉价格逐渐下探，未来 3~5 年自主品牌需要抓住超越外资品牌的宝贵窗口期，迅速扩大规模，放大优势。目前，蔚来汽车已经宣布将推出主攻主流大众市场的品牌。\n平安证券分析师王德安认为，智能电动车赛道也许并不存在“小而美”这一生存选项，在对手都已逐步搭建多品牌梯队的攻势下，新势力们以各种手段快速扩大规模或成必然选择。\n有统计显示，今年下半年国产特斯拉、上汽通用五菱、比亚迪、南北大众等持续放量，叠加新车型小鹏P5、北汽极狐、吉利极氪等集中上市，国内新能源汽车市场的看点也越来越多。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":60,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801906208,"gmtCreate":1627477625504,"gmtModify":1703490699613,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"b","listText":"b","text":"b","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801906208","repostId":"1187015717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187015717","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1627476468,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187015717?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-28 20:47","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"抄底？再等等吧","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187015717","media":"格隆汇","summary":"外资不怀好意\n\n经历了两天的暴跌，今天的市场貌似松了一口气。\nA股三大指数有了一定的企稳迹象，上证和深成指只是分别微跌0.58%、0.05%，创业板指数则在宁德时代的带领下翻红，收涨1.61%。\n港股","content":"<blockquote>\n 外资不怀好意\n</blockquote>\n<p>经历了两天的暴跌，今天的市场貌似松了一口气。</p>\n<p>A股三大指数有了一定的企稳迹象，上证和深成指只是分别微跌0.58%、0.05%，创业板指数则在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>的带领下翻红，收涨1.61%。</p>\n<p>港股也迎来反弹，恒指收涨1.35%，恒生科技指数收涨2.75%。</p>\n<p>板块和个股上，新能源又涨了，消费、医药、互联网公司也有了一定的反弹。一阵惊慌之后，日子又似乎回到之前，接着奏乐接着舞。</p>\n<p><b>但是，台面上的平静，并不能掩饰台底下的暗流涌动。</b></p>\n<p><b>1、</b><b><b>港A股集体沦陷</b></b></p>\n<p>此轮大跌，政策是诱因，特别是针对校外教育的政策，几乎把行业团灭。没办法，在国家鼓励生育的大战略底下，但凡和这个政策背道而驰的，被“拉人封铺”那是必然的，港股、美股上的教育股，即使退市都不要觉得有啥奇怪。</p>\n<p>但奇怪的是，这次不单单是教育股，而是整个市场都被带崩了。从上周五开始，过去的三个交易日，恒生指数跌幅近10%；过去两天的单日跌幅都超过1000点。从K线图上看，堪称“跳水”行情。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea44e8f9c2a90108b703d571a831add\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这种坠落的“景观”，在2019、2020年都出现过，但对应当时的宏观环境，第一次是因为中美贸易谈判协初稿被推翻，第二次是特朗普对余下的3000亿美元中国进口货物加征关税，美对中贸易战扩大，2020年那次则是新冠肺炎爆发，全球股市大崩盘所致。</p>\n<p>这一次，既没有贸易战，也没有重大灾难，宏观经济虽然有压力，但总体上还算稳得住。政策上是接连利空，一定程度上解释为“树上有10只鸟，开枪毙了一只，其他的全吓跑了”，<b>但如此恐慌性地抛售，在没有极端的天灾人祸面前，能仅仅归咎于资金恐慌吗？</b></p>\n<p>也有人将其归咎为恒生科技指数的坠落。过去三个交易日跌幅高达16.6%，昨日盘中一度跌幅超过10%，直接跌破成立时的点位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aec5d86c06cb9f7d868fa93265db1a1\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>诚然，恒生科技指数是互联网巨头扎堆的地方，这些巨头同时也是恒生指数的权重股。今年国家对于互联网的反垄断一浪高过一浪，巨头们股价的跌幅普遍已经高达40%以上，尤其是过去三个交易日，股王<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>跌幅近19%，恒生科技指数甚至恒生指数都难逃厄运。</p>\n<p>但反垄断这个事不是第一次发生，市场已经消化了大半年，为何要等到此时才集中出逃？</p>\n<p>再看看A股，情况也很类似，过去三个交易日大跌5%，这种短时间的急跌，只有2018年打贸易战，2020年新冠肺炎，以及今年2月的大回调，能够相提并论。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/476d2dfe6bfbb0e1348082bb3e68a869\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>A股的标杆-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>，股价从上周三的高位2006元，4个交易日被干到1712元，跌幅13%，这种急跌只有2018年10月底业绩不及预期，以及今年2月份大回调时才发生过，即使在去年新冠疫情爆发时都没有出现过。</p>\n<p>茅台的基本面变了吗？没有。</p>\n<p>茅台经营出现重大影响了吗？也没有。</p>\n<p>从国家的战略出发，高利润的行业要更多地为生育、为国家的科技创新、为实现社会主义总目标服务，这个没有疑问，也解释了茅台大跌的原因，但总是归咎于宏观因素，似乎也很难说过去，那我们不妨回到股价最直接的影响因素--<b>市场交易</b>。</p>\n<p>自开放港股通以来，贵州茅台已经成为外资投资A股的最爱，当然也成为观察外资动向的最佳标的，茅台股价的每一次异常，都能够从外资的流进流出中捕捉到信息。例如“218”大回调前后5个交易日，外资净卖出茅台128万股，净卖出金额224亿；又如5月25日，茅台单日大涨6%，外资净买入142万股，净买入金额45亿。</p>\n<p>我们发现，外资这几天的净卖出贵州茅台非常大，共抛售81万股，净流出金额103亿，这又是什么信号？</p>\n<p><b>2、</b><b><b>股债汇下跌，外资在砸盘？</b></b></p>\n<p>另一面，昨天A股尾盘，有过一波股汇债的异常波动。下午3点左右，人民币对美元的汇率一波集中贬值，幅度达到了0.5%，这在汇率市场来说，幅度已经很大。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d4595c9fbbb94c8f63e69ffa0d80de4\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>富时中国A50指数不仅在尾盘急搓，A股收盘时跌2.8%，收盘后还出现一波跳水，半个小时内再跌3%，等于当天的最大跌幅达到5.8%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bb9fa0ef44baba21c43dfc676d62f06\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>债券市场方面，15点开始出现一波集中的下跌。中国10年期国债，在15点开始出现一波收益率拉升，这意味着债券价格出现急跌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a5d6b0298e45ef4de5481d621262293\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这几天的美股市场，三大股指是节节攀升，只有中概股，一轮惨过一轮，教育股、互联网就不说了，但连代表了产业方向的新能源都跌得不像样。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d35ae05da66d8b6916823e4acd12a612\" tg-width=\"711\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>港股、A股急跌，股债汇一起来踩上两脚，中概股被集体抛弃，港股通连续数天都是净流出状态，尽管没有再具体的数据支持，但如果把这些迹象串起来，大概率就是外资在砸盘，甚至是恶意做空。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/805add633a6620a2fabee1c966d2ed74\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>我们无意用“阴谋论”，把此次暴跌的责任都推给外资，但历史也不断告诉我们，外资特别是美资在这方面的行为，确实很难让人相信他只是简单的套利，97年东南亚、香港金融危机，2018年新兴国家的经济危机，美国资本都得负上重要责任。</p>\n<p>时下，中美博弈越演越烈的大环境下，动用自己最擅长的金融手段干扰对手，并从中达到政治和经济的双重目的，美国人在这方面堪称专家中的专家。至于手法，也很简单，<b>先大肆流入，拉升资产价格，然后再疯狂砸盘，并透过其他的衍生工具做空，最终达到短期内利润变现，并从崩盘中再捞一大笔的目的。</b>何况，这次是中国自己出的政策利空，机会难得。</p>\n<p>昨日收盘后，便有媒体将股债汇大跌归咎于外资的跑路。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da54687cbfb1c5c9159cd6914c02e869\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae782165293c8450b64ce4517fb305fc\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"799\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>或许有人质疑，港股外资进出比较自由，他们可以肆无忌惮，但港股通这几天的净流出，也就是两百亿的规模，相比A股数十万亿的体量，只是几滴水花，这能激起多大的浪花？</p>\n<p>不要忘记，有不少国内的机构和散户，已经将外资信奉为操作标杆，跟随外资的步伐也成为不少人的信仰，外资的操作只是百亿规模，但是由此引发的跟风，可以是百亿甚至千亿规模。</p>\n<p>另外，外资投资A股的渠道，并不单单只是沪深港通一个渠道，还有QFII，当前外资持有A股3.36万亿元，其中通过沪深港通渠道进来的北向资金是只有1.45万亿元，其他近2万亿元，是通过QFII等其他渠道进来的。如果这些资金同时参与砸盘，那就不是仅仅两百亿的规模了，造成的损伤，会更大。更重要的是，QFII操作数据要等到季度末才公布，换句话说，即使它们砸盘，投资者也很难即时获得信息，傻乎乎地跟风，只会成为外资的“帮凶”。</p>\n<p>再说，QFII属于在境内的资金，对它的监管也比较强，进出没有香港那么自由，但这点似乎也难不倒外资，比如比特币的突然放量大涨。去年比特币的大涨可以归结于流动性异常宽松，但现在明显不存在这个条件，再结合这两天港股A股的大跌，你真的相信比特币的大涨和这没关系？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b93a06d0195b702bbe9535ef8e7d974d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>3、</b><b><b>我们对付不了外资？</b></b></p>\n<p>不过，外资如何兴风作浪，那是外资的事，不代表我们对付不了它，国家在这方面是看得清楚的。</p>\n<p>今年4月，短短一周时间，外资大幅流入A股超过400亿，流速非常快，看似量不大，但对于A股话语权可不小，甚至可以影响市场场内“舆论”走向。</p>\n<p>当时，证监会副主席方星海就放出过狠话：</p>\n<p><b>第一，对于外资进入A股投资，证监会“是看得清楚的”。</b></p>\n<p><b>第二，外资账户如果造成股市大幅波动，我们可以暂停它交易。</b></p>\n<p>说白了，监管层对于进来A股兴风作浪、不怀好意的外资是不欢迎的，并给予了严厉警告。通俗地讲，就是先把丑话说到前头，不听话就停你交易！</p>\n<p>如果说这些监管手段多少有点简单粗暴，会被人诟病为对市场干预过多，影响海外投资者的信心，那动用“国家队”在市场中和不怀好意的外资进行厮杀，就是尊重规则的自我保护行为。尤其是经历了2015年那场惊心动魄的“救市战”，国家在这方面已经经验丰富。</p>\n<p>今天，外资又重新变为净流入80亿，茅台也大涨3.27%，说明外资其实还是“识时务”的，跟中国政府对着干，没好处。</p>\n<p><b>4、</b><b><b>后市如何看？</b></b></p>\n<p>说完外资，还是回归到大家比较关心的后市。</p>\n<p>今天的盘面上，反弹比较明显的是新能源、消费（白酒）、互联网，甚至不乏个别银行地产，这就难免有点困惑？</p>\n<p><b>新能源我可以理解，毕竟代表的是全球的产业革命，是“光明的未来”，但白酒互联网地产银行这些，昨天刚刚被重锤，说好了是代表“腐朽的过去”，怎么今天又集体反弹了啊？</b></p>\n<p>不排除“国家队”出手稳定市场，但回归到资本市场，它也有自己的逻辑，长线上看，肯定是跟国家，跟全球的前进方向一致，但是短期的波动和背离，其实也很正常，因为股价跌得太多，总有人会去抄底。</p>\n<p>往深层说，一些不是国家产业方向的公司，最终可能会消亡，也可能成为日常生活的一部分，例如互联网，褪去高增长的光环是事实，因此而造成杀估值、杀逻辑也是事实，但上至国家，下至百姓，都离不开它，就像离不开“水电煤”一样，所以互联网作为基础设施的价值还是在的，再不济，用公共事业股给它们估值，也不会犯大错误。</p>\n<p>对于股民，关心完家国前程，轮到关心何时抄底了？</p>\n<p>现在，很难说这些代表“腐朽过去”的股价已经跌到合理价位，因为后续国家还有什么反垄断动作，还有什么减少生育的政策出台，没有人知道。而这些股票的估值，也没有很吸引人，茅台的动态PE还有46倍，在过去十年绝大部分时间内，都是高位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34629cb8aa8e8dd007b3f7e10059f328\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>腾讯股价也只是回到去年5月份的位置，动态PE20倍，高还是低，需要等到中报业绩公布后才能见分晓，不过从披露出来的信息看，估计业绩也不会很乐观。</p>\n<p>今晚还有重磅的美联储议息会议。</p>\n<p>想抄底，再等等吧。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>抄底？再等等吧</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n抄底？再等等吧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-28 20:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n 外资不怀好意\n</blockquote>\n<p>经历了两天的暴跌，今天的市场貌似松了一口气。</p>\n<p>A股三大指数有了一定的企稳迹象，上证和深成指只是分别微跌0.58%、0.05%，创业板指数则在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>的带领下翻红，收涨1.61%。</p>\n<p>港股也迎来反弹，恒指收涨1.35%，恒生科技指数收涨2.75%。</p>\n<p>板块和个股上，新能源又涨了，消费、医药、互联网公司也有了一定的反弹。一阵惊慌之后，日子又似乎回到之前，接着奏乐接着舞。</p>\n<p><b>但是，台面上的平静，并不能掩饰台底下的暗流涌动。</b></p>\n<p><b>1、</b><b><b>港A股集体沦陷</b></b></p>\n<p>此轮大跌，政策是诱因，特别是针对校外教育的政策，几乎把行业团灭。没办法，在国家鼓励生育的大战略底下，但凡和这个政策背道而驰的，被“拉人封铺”那是必然的，港股、美股上的教育股，即使退市都不要觉得有啥奇怪。</p>\n<p>但奇怪的是，这次不单单是教育股，而是整个市场都被带崩了。从上周五开始，过去的三个交易日，恒生指数跌幅近10%；过去两天的单日跌幅都超过1000点。从K线图上看，堪称“跳水”行情。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea44e8f9c2a90108b703d571a831add\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这种坠落的“景观”，在2019、2020年都出现过，但对应当时的宏观环境，第一次是因为中美贸易谈判协初稿被推翻，第二次是特朗普对余下的3000亿美元中国进口货物加征关税，美对中贸易战扩大，2020年那次则是新冠肺炎爆发，全球股市大崩盘所致。</p>\n<p>这一次，既没有贸易战，也没有重大灾难，宏观经济虽然有压力，但总体上还算稳得住。政策上是接连利空，一定程度上解释为“树上有10只鸟，开枪毙了一只，其他的全吓跑了”，<b>但如此恐慌性地抛售，在没有极端的天灾人祸面前，能仅仅归咎于资金恐慌吗？</b></p>\n<p>也有人将其归咎为恒生科技指数的坠落。过去三个交易日跌幅高达16.6%，昨日盘中一度跌幅超过10%，直接跌破成立时的点位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aec5d86c06cb9f7d868fa93265db1a1\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>诚然，恒生科技指数是互联网巨头扎堆的地方，这些巨头同时也是恒生指数的权重股。今年国家对于互联网的反垄断一浪高过一浪，巨头们股价的跌幅普遍已经高达40%以上，尤其是过去三个交易日，股王<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>跌幅近19%，恒生科技指数甚至恒生指数都难逃厄运。</p>\n<p>但反垄断这个事不是第一次发生，市场已经消化了大半年，为何要等到此时才集中出逃？</p>\n<p>再看看A股，情况也很类似，过去三个交易日大跌5%，这种短时间的急跌，只有2018年打贸易战，2020年新冠肺炎，以及今年2月的大回调，能够相提并论。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/476d2dfe6bfbb0e1348082bb3e68a869\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>A股的标杆-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>，股价从上周三的高位2006元，4个交易日被干到1712元，跌幅13%，这种急跌只有2018年10月底业绩不及预期，以及今年2月份大回调时才发生过，即使在去年新冠疫情爆发时都没有出现过。</p>\n<p>茅台的基本面变了吗？没有。</p>\n<p>茅台经营出现重大影响了吗？也没有。</p>\n<p>从国家的战略出发，高利润的行业要更多地为生育、为国家的科技创新、为实现社会主义总目标服务，这个没有疑问，也解释了茅台大跌的原因，但总是归咎于宏观因素，似乎也很难说过去，那我们不妨回到股价最直接的影响因素--<b>市场交易</b>。</p>\n<p>自开放港股通以来，贵州茅台已经成为外资投资A股的最爱，当然也成为观察外资动向的最佳标的，茅台股价的每一次异常，都能够从外资的流进流出中捕捉到信息。例如“218”大回调前后5个交易日，外资净卖出茅台128万股，净卖出金额224亿；又如5月25日，茅台单日大涨6%，外资净买入142万股，净买入金额45亿。</p>\n<p>我们发现，外资这几天的净卖出贵州茅台非常大，共抛售81万股，净流出金额103亿，这又是什么信号？</p>\n<p><b>2、</b><b><b>股债汇下跌，外资在砸盘？</b></b></p>\n<p>另一面，昨天A股尾盘，有过一波股汇债的异常波动。下午3点左右，人民币对美元的汇率一波集中贬值，幅度达到了0.5%，这在汇率市场来说，幅度已经很大。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d4595c9fbbb94c8f63e69ffa0d80de4\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>富时中国A50指数不仅在尾盘急搓，A股收盘时跌2.8%，收盘后还出现一波跳水，半个小时内再跌3%，等于当天的最大跌幅达到5.8%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bb9fa0ef44baba21c43dfc676d62f06\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>债券市场方面，15点开始出现一波集中的下跌。中国10年期国债，在15点开始出现一波收益率拉升，这意味着债券价格出现急跌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a5d6b0298e45ef4de5481d621262293\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这几天的美股市场，三大股指是节节攀升，只有中概股，一轮惨过一轮，教育股、互联网就不说了，但连代表了产业方向的新能源都跌得不像样。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d35ae05da66d8b6916823e4acd12a612\" tg-width=\"711\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>港股、A股急跌，股债汇一起来踩上两脚，中概股被集体抛弃，港股通连续数天都是净流出状态，尽管没有再具体的数据支持，但如果把这些迹象串起来，大概率就是外资在砸盘，甚至是恶意做空。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/805add633a6620a2fabee1c966d2ed74\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>我们无意用“阴谋论”，把此次暴跌的责任都推给外资，但历史也不断告诉我们，外资特别是美资在这方面的行为，确实很难让人相信他只是简单的套利，97年东南亚、香港金融危机，2018年新兴国家的经济危机，美国资本都得负上重要责任。</p>\n<p>时下，中美博弈越演越烈的大环境下，动用自己最擅长的金融手段干扰对手，并从中达到政治和经济的双重目的，美国人在这方面堪称专家中的专家。至于手法，也很简单，<b>先大肆流入，拉升资产价格，然后再疯狂砸盘，并透过其他的衍生工具做空，最终达到短期内利润变现，并从崩盘中再捞一大笔的目的。</b>何况，这次是中国自己出的政策利空，机会难得。</p>\n<p>昨日收盘后，便有媒体将股债汇大跌归咎于外资的跑路。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da54687cbfb1c5c9159cd6914c02e869\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae782165293c8450b64ce4517fb305fc\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"799\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>或许有人质疑，港股外资进出比较自由，他们可以肆无忌惮，但港股通这几天的净流出，也就是两百亿的规模，相比A股数十万亿的体量，只是几滴水花，这能激起多大的浪花？</p>\n<p>不要忘记，有不少国内的机构和散户，已经将外资信奉为操作标杆，跟随外资的步伐也成为不少人的信仰，外资的操作只是百亿规模，但是由此引发的跟风，可以是百亿甚至千亿规模。</p>\n<p>另外，外资投资A股的渠道，并不单单只是沪深港通一个渠道，还有QFII，当前外资持有A股3.36万亿元，其中通过沪深港通渠道进来的北向资金是只有1.45万亿元，其他近2万亿元，是通过QFII等其他渠道进来的。如果这些资金同时参与砸盘，那就不是仅仅两百亿的规模了，造成的损伤，会更大。更重要的是，QFII操作数据要等到季度末才公布，换句话说，即使它们砸盘，投资者也很难即时获得信息，傻乎乎地跟风，只会成为外资的“帮凶”。</p>\n<p>再说，QFII属于在境内的资金，对它的监管也比较强，进出没有香港那么自由，但这点似乎也难不倒外资，比如比特币的突然放量大涨。去年比特币的大涨可以归结于流动性异常宽松，但现在明显不存在这个条件，再结合这两天港股A股的大跌，你真的相信比特币的大涨和这没关系？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b93a06d0195b702bbe9535ef8e7d974d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>3、</b><b><b>我们对付不了外资？</b></b></p>\n<p>不过，外资如何兴风作浪，那是外资的事，不代表我们对付不了它，国家在这方面是看得清楚的。</p>\n<p>今年4月，短短一周时间，外资大幅流入A股超过400亿，流速非常快，看似量不大，但对于A股话语权可不小，甚至可以影响市场场内“舆论”走向。</p>\n<p>当时，证监会副主席方星海就放出过狠话：</p>\n<p><b>第一，对于外资进入A股投资，证监会“是看得清楚的”。</b></p>\n<p><b>第二，外资账户如果造成股市大幅波动，我们可以暂停它交易。</b></p>\n<p>说白了，监管层对于进来A股兴风作浪、不怀好意的外资是不欢迎的，并给予了严厉警告。通俗地讲，就是先把丑话说到前头，不听话就停你交易！</p>\n<p>如果说这些监管手段多少有点简单粗暴，会被人诟病为对市场干预过多，影响海外投资者的信心，那动用“国家队”在市场中和不怀好意的外资进行厮杀，就是尊重规则的自我保护行为。尤其是经历了2015年那场惊心动魄的“救市战”，国家在这方面已经经验丰富。</p>\n<p>今天，外资又重新变为净流入80亿，茅台也大涨3.27%，说明外资其实还是“识时务”的，跟中国政府对着干，没好处。</p>\n<p><b>4、</b><b><b>后市如何看？</b></b></p>\n<p>说完外资，还是回归到大家比较关心的后市。</p>\n<p>今天的盘面上，反弹比较明显的是新能源、消费（白酒）、互联网，甚至不乏个别银行地产，这就难免有点困惑？</p>\n<p><b>新能源我可以理解，毕竟代表的是全球的产业革命，是“光明的未来”，但白酒互联网地产银行这些，昨天刚刚被重锤，说好了是代表“腐朽的过去”，怎么今天又集体反弹了啊？</b></p>\n<p>不排除“国家队”出手稳定市场，但回归到资本市场，它也有自己的逻辑，长线上看，肯定是跟国家，跟全球的前进方向一致，但是短期的波动和背离，其实也很正常，因为股价跌得太多，总有人会去抄底。</p>\n<p>往深层说，一些不是国家产业方向的公司，最终可能会消亡，也可能成为日常生活的一部分，例如互联网，褪去高增长的光环是事实，因此而造成杀估值、杀逻辑也是事实，但上至国家，下至百姓，都离不开它，就像离不开“水电煤”一样，所以互联网作为基础设施的价值还是在的，再不济，用公共事业股给它们估值，也不会犯大错误。</p>\n<p>对于股民，关心完家国前程，轮到关心何时抄底了？</p>\n<p>现在，很难说这些代表“腐朽过去”的股价已经跌到合理价位，因为后续国家还有什么反垄断动作，还有什么减少生育的政策出台，没有人知道。而这些股票的估值，也没有很吸引人，茅台的动态PE还有46倍，在过去十年绝大部分时间内，都是高位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34629cb8aa8e8dd007b3f7e10059f328\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>腾讯股价也只是回到去年5月份的位置，动态PE20倍，高还是低，需要等到中报业绩公布后才能见分晓，不过从披露出来的信息看，估计业绩也不会很乐观。</p>\n<p>今晚还有重磅的美联储议息会议。</p>\n<p>想抄底，再等等吧。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187015717","content_text":"外资不怀好意\n\n经历了两天的暴跌，今天的市场貌似松了一口气。\nA股三大指数有了一定的企稳迹象，上证和深成指只是分别微跌0.58%、0.05%，创业板指数则在宁德时代的带领下翻红，收涨1.61%。\n港股也迎来反弹，恒指收涨1.35%，恒生科技指数收涨2.75%。\n板块和个股上，新能源又涨了，消费、医药、互联网公司也有了一定的反弹。一阵惊慌之后，日子又似乎回到之前，接着奏乐接着舞。\n但是，台面上的平静，并不能掩饰台底下的暗流涌动。\n1、港A股集体沦陷\n此轮大跌，政策是诱因，特别是针对校外教育的政策，几乎把行业团灭。没办法，在国家鼓励生育的大战略底下，但凡和这个政策背道而驰的，被“拉人封铺”那是必然的，港股、美股上的教育股，即使退市都不要觉得有啥奇怪。\n但奇怪的是，这次不单单是教育股，而是整个市场都被带崩了。从上周五开始，过去的三个交易日，恒生指数跌幅近10%；过去两天的单日跌幅都超过1000点。从K线图上看，堪称“跳水”行情。\n\n这种坠落的“景观”，在2019、2020年都出现过，但对应当时的宏观环境，第一次是因为中美贸易谈判协初稿被推翻，第二次是特朗普对余下的3000亿美元中国进口货物加征关税，美对中贸易战扩大，2020年那次则是新冠肺炎爆发，全球股市大崩盘所致。\n这一次，既没有贸易战，也没有重大灾难，宏观经济虽然有压力，但总体上还算稳得住。政策上是接连利空，一定程度上解释为“树上有10只鸟，开枪毙了一只，其他的全吓跑了”，但如此恐慌性地抛售，在没有极端的天灾人祸面前，能仅仅归咎于资金恐慌吗？\n也有人将其归咎为恒生科技指数的坠落。过去三个交易日跌幅高达16.6%，昨日盘中一度跌幅超过10%，直接跌破成立时的点位。\n\n诚然，恒生科技指数是互联网巨头扎堆的地方，这些巨头同时也是恒生指数的权重股。今年国家对于互联网的反垄断一浪高过一浪，巨头们股价的跌幅普遍已经高达40%以上，尤其是过去三个交易日，股王腾讯跌幅近19%，恒生科技指数甚至恒生指数都难逃厄运。\n但反垄断这个事不是第一次发生，市场已经消化了大半年，为何要等到此时才集中出逃？\n再看看A股，情况也很类似，过去三个交易日大跌5%，这种短时间的急跌，只有2018年打贸易战，2020年新冠肺炎，以及今年2月的大回调，能够相提并论。\n\nA股的标杆-贵州茅台，股价从上周三的高位2006元，4个交易日被干到1712元，跌幅13%，这种急跌只有2018年10月底业绩不及预期，以及今年2月份大回调时才发生过，即使在去年新冠疫情爆发时都没有出现过。\n茅台的基本面变了吗？没有。\n茅台经营出现重大影响了吗？也没有。\n从国家的战略出发，高利润的行业要更多地为生育、为国家的科技创新、为实现社会主义总目标服务，这个没有疑问，也解释了茅台大跌的原因，但总是归咎于宏观因素，似乎也很难说过去，那我们不妨回到股价最直接的影响因素--市场交易。\n自开放港股通以来，贵州茅台已经成为外资投资A股的最爱，当然也成为观察外资动向的最佳标的，茅台股价的每一次异常，都能够从外资的流进流出中捕捉到信息。例如“218”大回调前后5个交易日，外资净卖出茅台128万股，净卖出金额224亿；又如5月25日，茅台单日大涨6%，外资净买入142万股，净买入金额45亿。\n我们发现，外资这几天的净卖出贵州茅台非常大，共抛售81万股，净流出金额103亿，这又是什么信号？\n2、股债汇下跌，外资在砸盘？\n另一面，昨天A股尾盘，有过一波股汇债的异常波动。下午3点左右，人民币对美元的汇率一波集中贬值，幅度达到了0.5%，这在汇率市场来说，幅度已经很大。\n\n富时中国A50指数不仅在尾盘急搓，A股收盘时跌2.8%，收盘后还出现一波跳水，半个小时内再跌3%，等于当天的最大跌幅达到5.8%。\n\n债券市场方面，15点开始出现一波集中的下跌。中国10年期国债，在15点开始出现一波收益率拉升，这意味着债券价格出现急跌。\n\n这几天的美股市场，三大股指是节节攀升，只有中概股，一轮惨过一轮，教育股、互联网就不说了，但连代表了产业方向的新能源都跌得不像样。\n\n港股、A股急跌，股债汇一起来踩上两脚，中概股被集体抛弃，港股通连续数天都是净流出状态，尽管没有再具体的数据支持，但如果把这些迹象串起来，大概率就是外资在砸盘，甚至是恶意做空。\n\n我们无意用“阴谋论”，把此次暴跌的责任都推给外资，但历史也不断告诉我们，外资特别是美资在这方面的行为，确实很难让人相信他只是简单的套利，97年东南亚、香港金融危机，2018年新兴国家的经济危机，美国资本都得负上重要责任。\n时下，中美博弈越演越烈的大环境下，动用自己最擅长的金融手段干扰对手，并从中达到政治和经济的双重目的，美国人在这方面堪称专家中的专家。至于手法，也很简单，先大肆流入，拉升资产价格，然后再疯狂砸盘，并透过其他的衍生工具做空，最终达到短期内利润变现，并从崩盘中再捞一大笔的目的。何况，这次是中国自己出的政策利空，机会难得。\n昨日收盘后，便有媒体将股债汇大跌归咎于外资的跑路。\n\n或许有人质疑，港股外资进出比较自由，他们可以肆无忌惮，但港股通这几天的净流出，也就是两百亿的规模，相比A股数十万亿的体量，只是几滴水花，这能激起多大的浪花？\n不要忘记，有不少国内的机构和散户，已经将外资信奉为操作标杆，跟随外资的步伐也成为不少人的信仰，外资的操作只是百亿规模，但是由此引发的跟风，可以是百亿甚至千亿规模。\n另外，外资投资A股的渠道，并不单单只是沪深港通一个渠道，还有QFII，当前外资持有A股3.36万亿元，其中通过沪深港通渠道进来的北向资金是只有1.45万亿元，其他近2万亿元，是通过QFII等其他渠道进来的。如果这些资金同时参与砸盘，那就不是仅仅两百亿的规模了，造成的损伤，会更大。更重要的是，QFII操作数据要等到季度末才公布，换句话说，即使它们砸盘，投资者也很难即时获得信息，傻乎乎地跟风，只会成为外资的“帮凶”。\n再说，QFII属于在境内的资金，对它的监管也比较强，进出没有香港那么自由，但这点似乎也难不倒外资，比如比特币的突然放量大涨。去年比特币的大涨可以归结于流动性异常宽松，但现在明显不存在这个条件，再结合这两天港股A股的大跌，你真的相信比特币的大涨和这没关系？\n\n3、我们对付不了外资？\n不过，外资如何兴风作浪，那是外资的事，不代表我们对付不了它，国家在这方面是看得清楚的。\n今年4月，短短一周时间，外资大幅流入A股超过400亿，流速非常快，看似量不大，但对于A股话语权可不小，甚至可以影响市场场内“舆论”走向。\n当时，证监会副主席方星海就放出过狠话：\n第一，对于外资进入A股投资，证监会“是看得清楚的”。\n第二，外资账户如果造成股市大幅波动，我们可以暂停它交易。\n说白了，监管层对于进来A股兴风作浪、不怀好意的外资是不欢迎的，并给予了严厉警告。通俗地讲，就是先把丑话说到前头，不听话就停你交易！\n如果说这些监管手段多少有点简单粗暴，会被人诟病为对市场干预过多，影响海外投资者的信心，那动用“国家队”在市场中和不怀好意的外资进行厮杀，就是尊重规则的自我保护行为。尤其是经历了2015年那场惊心动魄的“救市战”，国家在这方面已经经验丰富。\n今天，外资又重新变为净流入80亿，茅台也大涨3.27%，说明外资其实还是“识时务”的，跟中国政府对着干，没好处。\n4、后市如何看？\n说完外资，还是回归到大家比较关心的后市。\n今天的盘面上，反弹比较明显的是新能源、消费（白酒）、互联网，甚至不乏个别银行地产，这就难免有点困惑？\n新能源我可以理解，毕竟代表的是全球的产业革命，是“光明的未来”，但白酒互联网地产银行这些，昨天刚刚被重锤，说好了是代表“腐朽的过去”，怎么今天又集体反弹了啊？\n不排除“国家队”出手稳定市场，但回归到资本市场，它也有自己的逻辑，长线上看，肯定是跟国家，跟全球的前进方向一致，但是短期的波动和背离，其实也很正常，因为股价跌得太多，总有人会去抄底。\n往深层说，一些不是国家产业方向的公司，最终可能会消亡，也可能成为日常生活的一部分，例如互联网，褪去高增长的光环是事实，因此而造成杀估值、杀逻辑也是事实，但上至国家，下至百姓，都离不开它，就像离不开“水电煤”一样，所以互联网作为基础设施的价值还是在的，再不济，用公共事业股给它们估值，也不会犯大错误。\n对于股民，关心完家国前程，轮到关心何时抄底了？\n现在，很难说这些代表“腐朽过去”的股价已经跌到合理价位，因为后续国家还有什么反垄断动作，还有什么减少生育的政策出台，没有人知道。而这些股票的估值，也没有很吸引人，茅台的动态PE还有46倍，在过去十年绝大部分时间内，都是高位。\n\n腾讯股价也只是回到去年5月份的位置，动态PE20倍，高还是低，需要等到中报业绩公布后才能见分晓，不过从披露出来的信息看，估计业绩也不会很乐观。\n今晚还有重磅的美联储议息会议。\n想抄底，再等等吧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144851520,"gmtCreate":1626276285660,"gmtModify":1703757019153,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"b","listText":"b","text":"b","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144851520","repostId":"2151518791","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"215151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22:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"搜狐股价一天暴涨近28%，卖掉搜狗到底有多大好处","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151518791","media":"金十数据","summary":"欢迎大家在评论区畅所欲言，下一个回答的可能就是你提出的问题哦~","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80daf88bcce84d6560fdf0317d84886f\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"4148\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>欢迎大家在评论区畅所欲言，下一个回答的可能就是你提出的问题哦~</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>搜狐股价一天暴涨近28%，卖掉搜狗到底有多大好处</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b22fd7984ee2ca1d9e1fb2c08e970f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=77759&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151518791","content_text":"欢迎大家在评论区畅所欲言，下一个回答的可能就是你提出的问题哦~","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":72,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110402790,"gmtCreate":1622475403410,"gmtModify":1704184937005,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"xv","listText":"xv","text":"xv","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110402790","repostId":"1194493052","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194493052","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"聚焦直播电商，专注优质内容。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"开菠萝财经","id":"1029556594","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d9497d85de4963a386188a1555b368"},"pubTimestamp":1622468438,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194493052?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-31 21:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"今年618，年轻人选择“躺平”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194493052","media":"开菠萝财经","summary":"重复着多年“雷同”剧本的618，早已不能激起他们的拼单热情和购物欲望了。","content":"<p>今年已经是618购物节的第18个年头了。</p>\n<p>不出意料的话，各家电商平台的数据会再上一个台阶。但在今年热闹的618面前，越来越多年轻人表示反对套路，坚决躺平。背后的原因是，重复着多年“雷同”剧本的618，早已不能激起他们的拼单热情和购物欲望了。</p>\n<p>当80后、90后和身边的95后、00后谈起早年全场半价的618时，后浪们会表示遗憾，那是他们未曾经历过的电商红利期。</p>\n<p>如今的618不再直接打五折，取而代之的是，考验数学能力的满减、预售抵扣、跨店津贴等“糖衣炮弹”，再加上拉人赢红包、盖楼、“叠猫猫”小游戏等复杂玩法，让“定金人”越发觉得心累。而直播间、海淘、豆瓣小组的省钱经验帖让更多消费者，甚至是品牌商逃离这场购物狂欢。</p>\n<p>在即将付尾款的今天，开菠萝财经对话了5位逃离618、选择“躺平”的消费者。</p>\n<p>有的人随着年龄增长，对价格不再那么敏感，认为618不过如此，“对成年人的诱惑度没有那么高了”；有的人认为618玩法过于复杂耗时，先提价再降价的行为就是欺骗，与其天天研究价格，“不如多赚点钱”；还有用户认为，“只要购物渠道够丰富，天天都是618”，海淘、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、快手和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>等渠道的日常价格反而更有优势。</p>\n<p>当越来越多年轻人加入“反618联盟”，各个平台真的应该考虑如何创新了。</p>\n<p><b>日日有直播，周周有活动，购物欲大可不必延迟到618</b></p>\n<p><b>何园园 | 29岁 互联网从业者</b></p>\n<p>昨天在直播间买了一款商品需要付定金，我才知道今年的618已经开始了。</p>\n<p>两年前，我对618大促的热情高到令现在的我都害怕的程度：提前看活动预热，参加养猫活动，跟着各种618攻略加购，为了凑单成套成套地买护肤品，为了花平台给的红包买一些不需要的东西。</p>\n<p>现在的我真的做不出这些事了。</p>\n<p>以前，我会囤超级多箱日用品，现在，很多快递都是直接被送到驿站和快递柜，当我一想到还要自己一箱一箱扛快递，便再也没有动力下单了。</p>\n<p>往年，促销节点没有现在这么多，假如我5月份想买一个东西，真的会等到618再下单，现在，天天有直播，几天一大促，我的购物欲都被分散到日常了。</p>\n<p>平时我一般会扫一眼李佳琦、薇娅的直播预告，有需要的话就在临睡前买一买，现在他们直播的货源比较充足，所以基本不需要蹲点；这些平台每个月都有N次促销节，女生节、劳动节、母亲节、520，折扣力度都差不多，我需要什么随手就买了，购物欲不需要再延迟满足了。</p>\n<p>还有一部分原因是，618的玩法一年比一年复杂，让我的参与热热情锐减。</p>\n<p>平台的初衷是激发消费者的参与度，但我个人的感受是前一年的活动越复杂，就越容易消耗消费者参与下一次活动的热情，我就是因为前几年被过度消耗了，现在，再不想参与618这种规模宏大、规则复杂、需要极长等待期、做大量功课的大促了。现在刷到618攻略不但没什么反应，还会下意识感觉头疼。</p>\n<p>刺激消费的本质是折扣和满减，当规则被平台复杂化，设计成开红包、拉朋友，用时间才能兑换小额优惠的小游戏，而且战线拉得过长，对成年人的诱惑度就没有那么高了。比如我第一天签到了，第二天就忘了。</p>\n<p>今年618，我几乎没再买了，也几乎没听到身边有谁在重度参与618。如果电商平台能把618设计得更有差异化，和日常的促销节日划分得更清晰，我可能会试着再参与。</p>\n<p><b>当你以为捡到便宜时，别人告诉你还能更便宜</b></p>\n<p><b>阿雯 | 27岁 建筑设计师</b></p>\n<p>前几年，每逢618等购物节大促，我都会提前去自己常用的日用品店铺逛一圈，挑选主推的活动商品加入购物车，还会参与官方的养猫猫或叠楼等小游戏凑红包。每到活动正式开始前一晚，都要手忙脚乱地凑618满减金额，争取买到最便宜的价格。</p>\n<p>不过，后来我发现，独居生活实在不需要囤太多物资，大促买的那些东西，用到第二年大促都没用完。</p>\n<p>更重要的是，投入产出比实在太低了。这些年，眼睁睁看着大促从最简单的满减打折，到购物券凑优惠，再到流量分发粉丝优惠券，再到叠猫猫、定期签到，总之就是需要你花更多的精力时间。而现在官方凑红包的那些活动，以我能投入的时间和精力，最多也就省下几十块钱。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e187cb469edff2b9c813b387460638\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1117\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">淘宝618叠猫猫游戏 / 受访者供图</p>\n<p>购物节就像一个游戏，玩法逐渐艰深，一环套一环，不但玩法过于复杂耗时，实在是太折腾用户了，而且永无止境，当你以为你已经找到最便宜的购买方法，别人告诉你还能更便宜。</p>\n<p>现在，我已经进入价格不敏感、需求优先、品质优先的阶段。当618需要更多时间精力时，我选择卸载“游戏”，让世界清净。我相信有的主播直播间确实是低价，但我不想浪费宝贵的休闲时间，也不相信自己的手速。</p>\n<p>如果在618活动时间前后，刚好家里需要买大件物品，我会顺便等等，看看618的价格。其余的，生活日化用品什么时候用完了什么时候补，衣物之类的按需购买。</p>\n<p>感觉现在周围认真参加618的朋友变少了，有的看到618玩法的那一刻就放弃，有的选择其他更实惠的购物渠道，好像实在没有什么必要参加618。</p>\n<p><b>虚假优惠毫无吸引力 花时间研究不如多赚点钱</b></p>\n<p><b>陆舟 | 27岁 银行从业人员</b></p>\n<p>我对618已经审美疲劳了，现在的低价、优惠已经不能刺激我买买买了。</p>\n<p>我第一年参加618的时候还是大学，没有收入，只有家长给的生活费，所以有什么想买的“大件”都要先攒钱等618买，买一双鞋都要提前半年攒钱买。那时候对价格很敏感，毕竟省下10块钱就够在食堂吃两顿饭了。</p>\n<p>现在的618越来越热闹，但是吸引力远不如从前了，复杂的玩法更是越来越让人看不懂，为什么不能像最初那样满多少减多少，一定要用各种券、反复计算各种优惠组合呢？对我来说完全是劝退级别的设置。</p>\n<p>几年前买东西的优惠也是真实可信的。我记得那时候买优衣库的衣服，原价199元的衣服线上卖99元，那时候线下店价格依然是199元。</p>\n<p>我最不能接受的618套路就是先提价后降价，我购物车里有些商品是二三月份放进去的，到了四五月突然涨价，然后在接近6月的时候价格再降下来，我眼睁睁看着价格像过山车一样忽高忽低，这样的操作对我来说就是欺骗行为。</p>\n<p>现在我自己收入提高之后，对于大促的兴趣也下降了，就算是电商平台所谓的每年一度最大的优惠力度，也很难给我什么惊喜了。对我来说，与其花时间精力研究优惠、警惕套路，不如多赚点钱。</p>\n<p>另一个原因在于短视频平台的兴起，我和我妈都会在抖音、快手买东西，我妈还发现拼多多上某些品类的日常价格优势比淘宝、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>更明显，而且不用必须等到618。如果哪一天平台的玩法变得简单纯粹，优惠更实在，我会考虑花时间参加618。</p>\n<p><b>双11囤的面膜当身体乳都用不完 618没理由剁手</b></p>\n<p><b>花见 | 33岁 传媒行业从业者</b></p>\n<p>双11才是最有力度的电商大促节，这点在我的心智里始终没有变过。</p>\n<p>双11时，我会非常重视，将计划买的东西按品类分好，做成表格，分头比价，并控制总的额度，即使手头比较紧，一般也要花2万元左右，置办全家一年的美妆护肤和日用品。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c544050fa3c1a43256fe83afba444482\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">来源/Pexels</p>\n<p>我对直播间的认知也是来自于双11，2019年的双11，我在薇娅直播间抢一款兰蔻菁纯面霜失手，气得一夜没睡着。</p>\n<p>相比之下，618在我心里的地位本就没有那么高。618只不过是电商在年中为了增加GMV多出来的促销节日而已，跟父亲节、母亲节的促销差不多。今年618，我一共买了不到500元，还有几个防晒霜要退货。</p>\n<p>总结起来，逃离618，我有三大理由。</p>\n<p>其一，是双11东西囤够了，到每年的618时期，还有很大一部分没有用完，这个时间点就很尴尬，双11的宣传做得越好，618就越没有机会。基本所有大促节日，打折力度大的的品类都集中在美妆，但我双11已经囤够了，没有那么多张脸可以用，当身体乳抹也抹不完。</p>\n<p>其二，我不是那种追求全网最低价的消费者，直播间日常已经满足了我大部分的需求。除了SK-II、海蓝之谜这类顶级品牌，我相信双11还是会有最大的折扣；平均10-30元一片的面膜，或者衣服、零食，平时直播间看到也就买了，不会等到618。反正主播会帮我选择哪个产品相对好一些，也会帮我砍价，这两个因素叠加起来就能帮我节省时间，又能让我买到还可以的东西，是不是618已经不是那么重要了。</p>\n<p>其三，我喜欢的一些中腰部主播不参加618，或者说参加的力度不够大。比如说陈洁kiki、烈儿宝贝，618只象征性地播了两三场，主题还是家装、童装专场，不像是双11要播一星期甚至十几天，618可选的东西太少。</p>\n<p>618想要超过双11，只能在优惠力度和打折品类的丰富度上再做些文章，不然我就没有理由去囤货。</p>\n<p><b>只要购物渠道够丰富 天天都是618</b></p>\n<p><b>漠漠 | 25岁 审计</b></p>\n<p>我是一个购物欲比较旺盛的人，虽然现在很多人倡导极简生活、不消费，但对我来说购物是很解压的一件事情。我喜欢挑选商品、比对价格、等待收货、拆快递的过程，尤其是当买到史低价、神价时，非常有成就感。</p>\n<p>作为一名优秀的“买买买”选手，618在我眼里当然算不上什么“超级优惠”“史上最低”“不买损失一个亿”的活动，不参加一点损失都没有。毕竟，只要我的购物渠道够丰富，天天都是618。</p>\n<p>首先，大家不要高估海淘的难度。现在很多品牌官网、时尚购物网站、海淘APP都可以直邮中国，支持VISA卡付款，还有满额免邮，一些时尚博主也会经常做推广发优惠码。</p>\n<p>之前我种草了一款运动内衣，但天猫旗舰店因产品调整暂时全线下架，我就去官网海淘，发现不仅有优惠价，配送也只需要4-6个工作日，首次注册邮箱会收到一个9折码。不过海淘快递要选靠谱的，以及做好可能被税的准备。</p>\n<p>另外，现在免税店也可以在线购物和邮寄，且经常打折，碰到“黑色星期五”这种大促时刻，价格基本上都比618便宜。如果自己实在搞不定，选择一个靠谱的免税代购也不会贵多少。</p>\n<p>比如，某一年618，我常用的一款化妆水官方促销的平均价格为5.31元/ml，但免税代购价格为4.13元/ml，以一瓶230ml的容量计算，价差达到271元，从此我再也不在618囤这款化妆水了。而且，618优惠的套餐，通常会绑定很多本来不需要购买的赠品或小样，本质上算不上优惠。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2bc3a3d7a862225e2887989e19b32fc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">日常好价与618促销价格对比 / 受访者供图</p>\n<p>如果只是想囤货一些生活用品，我会在豆瓣的某些薅羊毛小组搜作业，组员们会友情分享和交流一些好价，教大家怎么通过领优惠券、凑满减，以最优的价格在电商平台、品牌官网等买到需要的商品。如果最优价格下的商品数量太多，也可以和组员拼单。比如我之前以31.8元买到4瓶内衣清洗剂，618限时折后价格为70.9元，价格还不足618的一半。</p>\n<p>不过类似的好价也是可遇不可求的。有些优惠券是平台随机发送的，有些红包需要不停地玩电商小游戏获得，总之都是用时间换来的低价，至于值不值得，就看个人取舍了。</p>\n<p>总之，通过各种各样的购物渠道，我基本上都能在平时以不错的价格买到需要的东西，就不怎么关注618了。不过，618也不是完全没好价，通常电子产品和家居、家电等品类，会出现除了新品首发之外最优惠的价格，有需要的人确实可以选择购买。</p>\n<p>应受访者要求，文中何园园、阿雯、漠漠、陆舟、花见为化名。</p>\n<p>你今年618花了多少钱？</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>今年618，年轻人选择“躺平”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n今年618，年轻人选择“躺平”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1029556594\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d9497d85de4963a386188a1555b368);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">开菠萝财经 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-31 21:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>今年已经是618购物节的第18个年头了。</p>\n<p>不出意料的话，各家电商平台的数据会再上一个台阶。但在今年热闹的618面前，越来越多年轻人表示反对套路，坚决躺平。背后的原因是，重复着多年“雷同”剧本的618，早已不能激起他们的拼单热情和购物欲望了。</p>\n<p>当80后、90后和身边的95后、00后谈起早年全场半价的618时，后浪们会表示遗憾，那是他们未曾经历过的电商红利期。</p>\n<p>如今的618不再直接打五折，取而代之的是，考验数学能力的满减、预售抵扣、跨店津贴等“糖衣炮弹”，再加上拉人赢红包、盖楼、“叠猫猫”小游戏等复杂玩法，让“定金人”越发觉得心累。而直播间、海淘、豆瓣小组的省钱经验帖让更多消费者，甚至是品牌商逃离这场购物狂欢。</p>\n<p>在即将付尾款的今天，开菠萝财经对话了5位逃离618、选择“躺平”的消费者。</p>\n<p>有的人随着年龄增长，对价格不再那么敏感，认为618不过如此，“对成年人的诱惑度没有那么高了”；有的人认为618玩法过于复杂耗时，先提价再降价的行为就是欺骗，与其天天研究价格，“不如多赚点钱”；还有用户认为，“只要购物渠道够丰富，天天都是618”，海淘、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、快手和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>等渠道的日常价格反而更有优势。</p>\n<p>当越来越多年轻人加入“反618联盟”，各个平台真的应该考虑如何创新了。</p>\n<p><b>日日有直播，周周有活动，购物欲大可不必延迟到618</b></p>\n<p><b>何园园 | 29岁 互联网从业者</b></p>\n<p>昨天在直播间买了一款商品需要付定金，我才知道今年的618已经开始了。</p>\n<p>两年前，我对618大促的热情高到令现在的我都害怕的程度：提前看活动预热，参加养猫活动，跟着各种618攻略加购，为了凑单成套成套地买护肤品，为了花平台给的红包买一些不需要的东西。</p>\n<p>现在的我真的做不出这些事了。</p>\n<p>以前，我会囤超级多箱日用品，现在，很多快递都是直接被送到驿站和快递柜，当我一想到还要自己一箱一箱扛快递，便再也没有动力下单了。</p>\n<p>往年，促销节点没有现在这么多，假如我5月份想买一个东西，真的会等到618再下单，现在，天天有直播，几天一大促，我的购物欲都被分散到日常了。</p>\n<p>平时我一般会扫一眼李佳琦、薇娅的直播预告，有需要的话就在临睡前买一买，现在他们直播的货源比较充足，所以基本不需要蹲点；这些平台每个月都有N次促销节，女生节、劳动节、母亲节、520，折扣力度都差不多，我需要什么随手就买了，购物欲不需要再延迟满足了。</p>\n<p>还有一部分原因是，618的玩法一年比一年复杂，让我的参与热热情锐减。</p>\n<p>平台的初衷是激发消费者的参与度，但我个人的感受是前一年的活动越复杂，就越容易消耗消费者参与下一次活动的热情，我就是因为前几年被过度消耗了，现在，再不想参与618这种规模宏大、规则复杂、需要极长等待期、做大量功课的大促了。现在刷到618攻略不但没什么反应，还会下意识感觉头疼。</p>\n<p>刺激消费的本质是折扣和满减，当规则被平台复杂化，设计成开红包、拉朋友，用时间才能兑换小额优惠的小游戏，而且战线拉得过长，对成年人的诱惑度就没有那么高了。比如我第一天签到了，第二天就忘了。</p>\n<p>今年618，我几乎没再买了，也几乎没听到身边有谁在重度参与618。如果电商平台能把618设计得更有差异化，和日常的促销节日划分得更清晰，我可能会试着再参与。</p>\n<p><b>当你以为捡到便宜时，别人告诉你还能更便宜</b></p>\n<p><b>阿雯 | 27岁 建筑设计师</b></p>\n<p>前几年，每逢618等购物节大促，我都会提前去自己常用的日用品店铺逛一圈，挑选主推的活动商品加入购物车，还会参与官方的养猫猫或叠楼等小游戏凑红包。每到活动正式开始前一晚，都要手忙脚乱地凑618满减金额，争取买到最便宜的价格。</p>\n<p>不过，后来我发现，独居生活实在不需要囤太多物资，大促买的那些东西，用到第二年大促都没用完。</p>\n<p>更重要的是，投入产出比实在太低了。这些年，眼睁睁看着大促从最简单的满减打折，到购物券凑优惠，再到流量分发粉丝优惠券，再到叠猫猫、定期签到，总之就是需要你花更多的精力时间。而现在官方凑红包的那些活动，以我能投入的时间和精力，最多也就省下几十块钱。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e187cb469edff2b9c813b387460638\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1117\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">淘宝618叠猫猫游戏 / 受访者供图</p>\n<p>购物节就像一个游戏，玩法逐渐艰深，一环套一环，不但玩法过于复杂耗时，实在是太折腾用户了，而且永无止境，当你以为你已经找到最便宜的购买方法，别人告诉你还能更便宜。</p>\n<p>现在，我已经进入价格不敏感、需求优先、品质优先的阶段。当618需要更多时间精力时，我选择卸载“游戏”，让世界清净。我相信有的主播直播间确实是低价，但我不想浪费宝贵的休闲时间，也不相信自己的手速。</p>\n<p>如果在618活动时间前后，刚好家里需要买大件物品，我会顺便等等，看看618的价格。其余的，生活日化用品什么时候用完了什么时候补，衣物之类的按需购买。</p>\n<p>感觉现在周围认真参加618的朋友变少了，有的看到618玩法的那一刻就放弃，有的选择其他更实惠的购物渠道，好像实在没有什么必要参加618。</p>\n<p><b>虚假优惠毫无吸引力 花时间研究不如多赚点钱</b></p>\n<p><b>陆舟 | 27岁 银行从业人员</b></p>\n<p>我对618已经审美疲劳了，现在的低价、优惠已经不能刺激我买买买了。</p>\n<p>我第一年参加618的时候还是大学，没有收入，只有家长给的生活费，所以有什么想买的“大件”都要先攒钱等618买，买一双鞋都要提前半年攒钱买。那时候对价格很敏感，毕竟省下10块钱就够在食堂吃两顿饭了。</p>\n<p>现在的618越来越热闹，但是吸引力远不如从前了，复杂的玩法更是越来越让人看不懂，为什么不能像最初那样满多少减多少，一定要用各种券、反复计算各种优惠组合呢？对我来说完全是劝退级别的设置。</p>\n<p>几年前买东西的优惠也是真实可信的。我记得那时候买优衣库的衣服，原价199元的衣服线上卖99元，那时候线下店价格依然是199元。</p>\n<p>我最不能接受的618套路就是先提价后降价，我购物车里有些商品是二三月份放进去的，到了四五月突然涨价，然后在接近6月的时候价格再降下来，我眼睁睁看着价格像过山车一样忽高忽低，这样的操作对我来说就是欺骗行为。</p>\n<p>现在我自己收入提高之后，对于大促的兴趣也下降了，就算是电商平台所谓的每年一度最大的优惠力度，也很难给我什么惊喜了。对我来说，与其花时间精力研究优惠、警惕套路，不如多赚点钱。</p>\n<p>另一个原因在于短视频平台的兴起，我和我妈都会在抖音、快手买东西，我妈还发现拼多多上某些品类的日常价格优势比淘宝、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>更明显，而且不用必须等到618。如果哪一天平台的玩法变得简单纯粹，优惠更实在，我会考虑花时间参加618。</p>\n<p><b>双11囤的面膜当身体乳都用不完 618没理由剁手</b></p>\n<p><b>花见 | 33岁 传媒行业从业者</b></p>\n<p>双11才是最有力度的电商大促节，这点在我的心智里始终没有变过。</p>\n<p>双11时，我会非常重视，将计划买的东西按品类分好，做成表格，分头比价，并控制总的额度，即使手头比较紧，一般也要花2万元左右，置办全家一年的美妆护肤和日用品。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c544050fa3c1a43256fe83afba444482\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">来源/Pexels</p>\n<p>我对直播间的认知也是来自于双11，2019年的双11，我在薇娅直播间抢一款兰蔻菁纯面霜失手，气得一夜没睡着。</p>\n<p>相比之下，618在我心里的地位本就没有那么高。618只不过是电商在年中为了增加GMV多出来的促销节日而已，跟父亲节、母亲节的促销差不多。今年618，我一共买了不到500元，还有几个防晒霜要退货。</p>\n<p>总结起来，逃离618，我有三大理由。</p>\n<p>其一，是双11东西囤够了，到每年的618时期，还有很大一部分没有用完，这个时间点就很尴尬，双11的宣传做得越好，618就越没有机会。基本所有大促节日，打折力度大的的品类都集中在美妆，但我双11已经囤够了，没有那么多张脸可以用，当身体乳抹也抹不完。</p>\n<p>其二，我不是那种追求全网最低价的消费者，直播间日常已经满足了我大部分的需求。除了SK-II、海蓝之谜这类顶级品牌，我相信双11还是会有最大的折扣；平均10-30元一片的面膜，或者衣服、零食，平时直播间看到也就买了，不会等到618。反正主播会帮我选择哪个产品相对好一些，也会帮我砍价，这两个因素叠加起来就能帮我节省时间，又能让我买到还可以的东西，是不是618已经不是那么重要了。</p>\n<p>其三，我喜欢的一些中腰部主播不参加618，或者说参加的力度不够大。比如说陈洁kiki、烈儿宝贝，618只象征性地播了两三场，主题还是家装、童装专场，不像是双11要播一星期甚至十几天，618可选的东西太少。</p>\n<p>618想要超过双11，只能在优惠力度和打折品类的丰富度上再做些文章，不然我就没有理由去囤货。</p>\n<p><b>只要购物渠道够丰富 天天都是618</b></p>\n<p><b>漠漠 | 25岁 审计</b></p>\n<p>我是一个购物欲比较旺盛的人，虽然现在很多人倡导极简生活、不消费，但对我来说购物是很解压的一件事情。我喜欢挑选商品、比对价格、等待收货、拆快递的过程，尤其是当买到史低价、神价时，非常有成就感。</p>\n<p>作为一名优秀的“买买买”选手，618在我眼里当然算不上什么“超级优惠”“史上最低”“不买损失一个亿”的活动，不参加一点损失都没有。毕竟，只要我的购物渠道够丰富，天天都是618。</p>\n<p>首先，大家不要高估海淘的难度。现在很多品牌官网、时尚购物网站、海淘APP都可以直邮中国，支持VISA卡付款，还有满额免邮，一些时尚博主也会经常做推广发优惠码。</p>\n<p>之前我种草了一款运动内衣，但天猫旗舰店因产品调整暂时全线下架，我就去官网海淘，发现不仅有优惠价，配送也只需要4-6个工作日，首次注册邮箱会收到一个9折码。不过海淘快递要选靠谱的，以及做好可能被税的准备。</p>\n<p>另外，现在免税店也可以在线购物和邮寄，且经常打折，碰到“黑色星期五”这种大促时刻，价格基本上都比618便宜。如果自己实在搞不定，选择一个靠谱的免税代购也不会贵多少。</p>\n<p>比如，某一年618，我常用的一款化妆水官方促销的平均价格为5.31元/ml，但免税代购价格为4.13元/ml，以一瓶230ml的容量计算，价差达到271元，从此我再也不在618囤这款化妆水了。而且，618优惠的套餐，通常会绑定很多本来不需要购买的赠品或小样，本质上算不上优惠。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2bc3a3d7a862225e2887989e19b32fc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">日常好价与618促销价格对比 / 受访者供图</p>\n<p>如果只是想囤货一些生活用品，我会在豆瓣的某些薅羊毛小组搜作业，组员们会友情分享和交流一些好价，教大家怎么通过领优惠券、凑满减，以最优的价格在电商平台、品牌官网等买到需要的商品。如果最优价格下的商品数量太多，也可以和组员拼单。比如我之前以31.8元买到4瓶内衣清洗剂，618限时折后价格为70.9元，价格还不足618的一半。</p>\n<p>不过类似的好价也是可遇不可求的。有些优惠券是平台随机发送的，有些红包需要不停地玩电商小游戏获得，总之都是用时间换来的低价，至于值不值得，就看个人取舍了。</p>\n<p>总之，通过各种各样的购物渠道，我基本上都能在平时以不错的价格买到需要的东西，就不怎么关注618了。不过，618也不是完全没好价，通常电子产品和家居、家电等品类，会出现除了新品首发之外最优惠的价格，有需要的人确实可以选择购买。</p>\n<p>应受访者要求，文中何园园、阿雯、漠漠、陆舟、花见为化名。</p>\n<p>你今年618花了多少钱？</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f3c8fc1dac0c3799afcd1fb9ff5f2c6","relate_stocks":{"09618":"京东集团-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","JD":"京东","PDD":"拼多多"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194493052","content_text":"今年已经是618购物节的第18个年头了。\n不出意料的话，各家电商平台的数据会再上一个台阶。但在今年热闹的618面前，越来越多年轻人表示反对套路，坚决躺平。背后的原因是，重复着多年“雷同”剧本的618，早已不能激起他们的拼单热情和购物欲望了。\n当80后、90后和身边的95后、00后谈起早年全场半价的618时，后浪们会表示遗憾，那是他们未曾经历过的电商红利期。\n如今的618不再直接打五折，取而代之的是，考验数学能力的满减、预售抵扣、跨店津贴等“糖衣炮弹”，再加上拉人赢红包、盖楼、“叠猫猫”小游戏等复杂玩法，让“定金人”越发觉得心累。而直播间、海淘、豆瓣小组的省钱经验帖让更多消费者，甚至是品牌商逃离这场购物狂欢。\n在即将付尾款的今天，开菠萝财经对话了5位逃离618、选择“躺平”的消费者。\n有的人随着年龄增长，对价格不再那么敏感，认为618不过如此，“对成年人的诱惑度没有那么高了”；有的人认为618玩法过于复杂耗时，先提价再降价的行为就是欺骗，与其天天研究价格，“不如多赚点钱”；还有用户认为，“只要购物渠道够丰富，天天都是618”，海淘、拼多多、快手和抖音等渠道的日常价格反而更有优势。\n当越来越多年轻人加入“反618联盟”，各个平台真的应该考虑如何创新了。\n日日有直播，周周有活动，购物欲大可不必延迟到618\n何园园 | 29岁 互联网从业者\n昨天在直播间买了一款商品需要付定金，我才知道今年的618已经开始了。\n两年前，我对618大促的热情高到令现在的我都害怕的程度：提前看活动预热，参加养猫活动，跟着各种618攻略加购，为了凑单成套成套地买护肤品，为了花平台给的红包买一些不需要的东西。\n现在的我真的做不出这些事了。\n以前，我会囤超级多箱日用品，现在，很多快递都是直接被送到驿站和快递柜，当我一想到还要自己一箱一箱扛快递，便再也没有动力下单了。\n往年，促销节点没有现在这么多，假如我5月份想买一个东西，真的会等到618再下单，现在，天天有直播，几天一大促，我的购物欲都被分散到日常了。\n平时我一般会扫一眼李佳琦、薇娅的直播预告，有需要的话就在临睡前买一买，现在他们直播的货源比较充足，所以基本不需要蹲点；这些平台每个月都有N次促销节，女生节、劳动节、母亲节、520，折扣力度都差不多，我需要什么随手就买了，购物欲不需要再延迟满足了。\n还有一部分原因是，618的玩法一年比一年复杂，让我的参与热热情锐减。\n平台的初衷是激发消费者的参与度，但我个人的感受是前一年的活动越复杂，就越容易消耗消费者参与下一次活动的热情，我就是因为前几年被过度消耗了，现在，再不想参与618这种规模宏大、规则复杂、需要极长等待期、做大量功课的大促了。现在刷到618攻略不但没什么反应，还会下意识感觉头疼。\n刺激消费的本质是折扣和满减，当规则被平台复杂化，设计成开红包、拉朋友，用时间才能兑换小额优惠的小游戏，而且战线拉得过长，对成年人的诱惑度就没有那么高了。比如我第一天签到了，第二天就忘了。\n今年618，我几乎没再买了，也几乎没听到身边有谁在重度参与618。如果电商平台能把618设计得更有差异化，和日常的促销节日划分得更清晰，我可能会试着再参与。\n当你以为捡到便宜时，别人告诉你还能更便宜\n阿雯 | 27岁 建筑设计师\n前几年，每逢618等购物节大促，我都会提前去自己常用的日用品店铺逛一圈，挑选主推的活动商品加入购物车，还会参与官方的养猫猫或叠楼等小游戏凑红包。每到活动正式开始前一晚，都要手忙脚乱地凑618满减金额，争取买到最便宜的价格。\n不过，后来我发现，独居生活实在不需要囤太多物资，大促买的那些东西，用到第二年大促都没用完。\n更重要的是，投入产出比实在太低了。这些年，眼睁睁看着大促从最简单的满减打折，到购物券凑优惠，再到流量分发粉丝优惠券，再到叠猫猫、定期签到，总之就是需要你花更多的精力时间。而现在官方凑红包的那些活动，以我能投入的时间和精力，最多也就省下几十块钱。\n淘宝618叠猫猫游戏 / 受访者供图\n购物节就像一个游戏，玩法逐渐艰深，一环套一环，不但玩法过于复杂耗时，实在是太折腾用户了，而且永无止境，当你以为你已经找到最便宜的购买方法，别人告诉你还能更便宜。\n现在，我已经进入价格不敏感、需求优先、品质优先的阶段。当618需要更多时间精力时，我选择卸载“游戏”，让世界清净。我相信有的主播直播间确实是低价，但我不想浪费宝贵的休闲时间，也不相信自己的手速。\n如果在618活动时间前后，刚好家里需要买大件物品，我会顺便等等，看看618的价格。其余的，生活日化用品什么时候用完了什么时候补，衣物之类的按需购买。\n感觉现在周围认真参加618的朋友变少了，有的看到618玩法的那一刻就放弃，有的选择其他更实惠的购物渠道，好像实在没有什么必要参加618。\n虚假优惠毫无吸引力 花时间研究不如多赚点钱\n陆舟 | 27岁 银行从业人员\n我对618已经审美疲劳了，现在的低价、优惠已经不能刺激我买买买了。\n我第一年参加618的时候还是大学，没有收入，只有家长给的生活费，所以有什么想买的“大件”都要先攒钱等618买，买一双鞋都要提前半年攒钱买。那时候对价格很敏感，毕竟省下10块钱就够在食堂吃两顿饭了。\n现在的618越来越热闹，但是吸引力远不如从前了，复杂的玩法更是越来越让人看不懂，为什么不能像最初那样满多少减多少，一定要用各种券、反复计算各种优惠组合呢？对我来说完全是劝退级别的设置。\n几年前买东西的优惠也是真实可信的。我记得那时候买优衣库的衣服，原价199元的衣服线上卖99元，那时候线下店价格依然是199元。\n我最不能接受的618套路就是先提价后降价，我购物车里有些商品是二三月份放进去的，到了四五月突然涨价，然后在接近6月的时候价格再降下来，我眼睁睁看着价格像过山车一样忽高忽低，这样的操作对我来说就是欺骗行为。\n现在我自己收入提高之后，对于大促的兴趣也下降了，就算是电商平台所谓的每年一度最大的优惠力度，也很难给我什么惊喜了。对我来说，与其花时间精力研究优惠、警惕套路，不如多赚点钱。\n另一个原因在于短视频平台的兴起，我和我妈都会在抖音、快手买东西，我妈还发现拼多多上某些品类的日常价格优势比淘宝、京东更明显，而且不用必须等到618。如果哪一天平台的玩法变得简单纯粹，优惠更实在，我会考虑花时间参加618。\n双11囤的面膜当身体乳都用不完 618没理由剁手\n花见 | 33岁 传媒行业从业者\n双11才是最有力度的电商大促节，这点在我的心智里始终没有变过。\n双11时，我会非常重视，将计划买的东西按品类分好，做成表格，分头比价，并控制总的额度，即使手头比较紧，一般也要花2万元左右，置办全家一年的美妆护肤和日用品。\n来源/Pexels\n我对直播间的认知也是来自于双11，2019年的双11，我在薇娅直播间抢一款兰蔻菁纯面霜失手，气得一夜没睡着。\n相比之下，618在我心里的地位本就没有那么高。618只不过是电商在年中为了增加GMV多出来的促销节日而已，跟父亲节、母亲节的促销差不多。今年618，我一共买了不到500元，还有几个防晒霜要退货。\n总结起来，逃离618，我有三大理由。\n其一，是双11东西囤够了，到每年的618时期，还有很大一部分没有用完，这个时间点就很尴尬，双11的宣传做得越好，618就越没有机会。基本所有大促节日，打折力度大的的品类都集中在美妆，但我双11已经囤够了，没有那么多张脸可以用，当身体乳抹也抹不完。\n其二，我不是那种追求全网最低价的消费者，直播间日常已经满足了我大部分的需求。除了SK-II、海蓝之谜这类顶级品牌，我相信双11还是会有最大的折扣；平均10-30元一片的面膜，或者衣服、零食，平时直播间看到也就买了，不会等到618。反正主播会帮我选择哪个产品相对好一些，也会帮我砍价，这两个因素叠加起来就能帮我节省时间，又能让我买到还可以的东西，是不是618已经不是那么重要了。\n其三，我喜欢的一些中腰部主播不参加618，或者说参加的力度不够大。比如说陈洁kiki、烈儿宝贝，618只象征性地播了两三场，主题还是家装、童装专场，不像是双11要播一星期甚至十几天，618可选的东西太少。\n618想要超过双11，只能在优惠力度和打折品类的丰富度上再做些文章，不然我就没有理由去囤货。\n只要购物渠道够丰富 天天都是618\n漠漠 | 25岁 审计\n我是一个购物欲比较旺盛的人，虽然现在很多人倡导极简生活、不消费，但对我来说购物是很解压的一件事情。我喜欢挑选商品、比对价格、等待收货、拆快递的过程，尤其是当买到史低价、神价时，非常有成就感。\n作为一名优秀的“买买买”选手，618在我眼里当然算不上什么“超级优惠”“史上最低”“不买损失一个亿”的活动，不参加一点损失都没有。毕竟，只要我的购物渠道够丰富，天天都是618。\n首先，大家不要高估海淘的难度。现在很多品牌官网、时尚购物网站、海淘APP都可以直邮中国，支持VISA卡付款，还有满额免邮，一些时尚博主也会经常做推广发优惠码。\n之前我种草了一款运动内衣，但天猫旗舰店因产品调整暂时全线下架，我就去官网海淘，发现不仅有优惠价，配送也只需要4-6个工作日，首次注册邮箱会收到一个9折码。不过海淘快递要选靠谱的，以及做好可能被税的准备。\n另外，现在免税店也可以在线购物和邮寄，且经常打折，碰到“黑色星期五”这种大促时刻，价格基本上都比618便宜。如果自己实在搞不定，选择一个靠谱的免税代购也不会贵多少。\n比如，某一年618，我常用的一款化妆水官方促销的平均价格为5.31元/ml，但免税代购价格为4.13元/ml，以一瓶230ml的容量计算，价差达到271元，从此我再也不在618囤这款化妆水了。而且，618优惠的套餐，通常会绑定很多本来不需要购买的赠品或小样，本质上算不上优惠。\n日常好价与618促销价格对比 / 受访者供图\n如果只是想囤货一些生活用品，我会在豆瓣的某些薅羊毛小组搜作业，组员们会友情分享和交流一些好价，教大家怎么通过领优惠券、凑满减，以最优的价格在电商平台、品牌官网等买到需要的商品。如果最优价格下的商品数量太多，也可以和组员拼单。比如我之前以31.8元买到4瓶内衣清洗剂，618限时折后价格为70.9元，价格还不足618的一半。\n不过类似的好价也是可遇不可求的。有些优惠券是平台随机发送的，有些红包需要不停地玩电商小游戏获得，总之都是用时间换来的低价，至于值不值得，就看个人取舍了。\n总之，通过各种各样的购物渠道，我基本上都能在平时以不错的价格买到需要的东西，就不怎么关注618了。不过，618也不是完全没好价，通常电子产品和家居、家电等品类，会出现除了新品首发之外最优惠的价格，有需要的人确实可以选择购买。\n应受访者要求，文中何园园、阿雯、漠漠、陆舟、花见为化名。\n你今年618花了多少钱？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":40,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
