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爱丽丝郑

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2024-06-23

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

2021-06-25

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2021-06-23

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Regulation hits Bitcoin's mining machine market, Bitmain suspends spot mining machine sales

2021-06-22

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Behind the "most expensive game card in history" lies a major corruption case

2021-06-22

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Value Stocks Return! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend

2021-06-22

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The daily fresh pricing range is 13-16 US dollars/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight

2021-06-18

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The day after the Fed is expected to earlier the rate hike, long-term U.S. bond yields plummeted. Why?

2021-06-14

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Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly

2021-05-20

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2021-05-19

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Haidilao fell into the deep red sea, and it could not be fished just by opening a shop

2021-05-19

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2021-05-14

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Report card of real estate tycoons: Money is hard to earn, debt is hard to repay

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies 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16:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Regulation hits Bitcoin's mining machine market, Bitmain suspends spot mining machine sales","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129009844","media":"界面新闻","summary":"加密货币矿业的上游供应开始受到监管影响。","content":"<p><div>Reporter/Silinwei The upstream supply of cryptocurrency mining is beginning to be affected by regulation. On June 23, Bitmain told cryptocurrency miners that due to the recent influx of a large number of second-hand machines into the market, it temporarily stopped selling spot machines in order to ease customer shipment pressure. An insider of Bitmain told Jiemian News: \"This is the general direction, but the specific sales details have not been notified yet.\" At the same time, it is reported that Bitmain has announced a comprehensive overseas transfer, especially some middle and senior employees are moving overseas. Bitmain said it was not convenient to disclose it to the public for the time being. Bitmain is currently one of the largest Bitcoin mining machine manufacturers in the world...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"jm","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Regulation hits Bitcoin's mining machine market, Bitmain suspends spot mining machine sales</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRegulation hits Bitcoin's mining machine market, Bitmain suspends spot mining machine sales\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">界面新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 16:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Reporter/Silinwei The upstream supply of cryptocurrency mining is beginning to be affected by regulation. On June 23, Bitmain told cryptocurrency miners that due to the recent influx of a large number of second-hand machines into the market, it temporarily stopped selling spot machines in order to ease customer shipment pressure. An insider of Bitmain told Jiemian News: \"This is the general direction, but the specific sales details have not been notified yet.\" At the same time, it is reported that Bitmain has announced a comprehensive overseas transfer, especially some middle and senior employees are moving overseas. Bitmain said it was not convenient to disclose it to the public for the time being. Bitmain is currently one of the largest Bitcoin mining machine manufacturers in the world...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">界面新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27dbfbd85956a77609a6a352c6752bcc","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129009844","content_text":"记者／司林威\n加密货币矿业的上游供应开始受到监管影响。\n6月23日，比特大陆对加密货币矿工表示，由于近期大量二手机器涌入市场，为缓解客户出货压力，暂时停售现货机器。\n比特大陆内部人士向界面新闻表示：“大方向是这样，但具体销售细节暂未接到通知。”\n同时，有消息称比特大陆已宣布全面向海外转移，特别是部分中高层员工正向海外转移。比特大陆方表示暂不方便对外透露。\n比特大陆是目前全球最大的比特币矿机厂商之一，近年来在AI领域也有大量布局。在6月19日于成都举行的行业交流会上，比特大陆发布了其新品，但并非为比特币专业矿机。会上比特大陆还打出“抱团取暖，拒绝恶性竞争”的标语。现场参会的矿工透露，海外挖矿业务成了本次交流会的主要议题。\n为何比特大陆要暂停现货矿机销售？本质还是受到国内监管冲击。\n随着内蒙古、新疆、四川、青海、云南等地陆续开始叫停比特币挖矿和清退各类矿场，除一部分矿机转移至中亚和海外，大量被清退的矿机被迫关机后流入二手矿机市场，直接冲击了原有的矿机市场。\n监管政策落地后，界面新闻记者获悉多位矿工已开始售卖矿机。有矿业公司已开始清退客户矿机，并开始清仓甩卖相关矿机。\n以矿机市场销售人员近几日的报价为例，比特大陆旗下蚂蚁S19系列某款矿机6月15日报价为4万元，6月23日报价已降至3万元关口。且据矿工透露，目前市场价格处于恐慌中的低点，有价无市，愿意接手的人并不多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129240951,"gmtCreate":1624375058273,"gmtModify":1703834928936,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129240951","repostId":"1191907311","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191907311","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624372217,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191907311?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 22:30","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Behind the \"most expensive game card in history\" lies a major corruption case","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191907311","media":"雷达财经","summary":"一张纪念卡牌能有多贵？答案是8700万元。","content":"<p>Text | Zhang Kaijing</p><p>How expensive can a commemorative card be? The answer is 87 million yuan.</p><p>On June 21, 2021, the bidding price of the Yu-Gi Oh limited-edition card \"Blue Eyes White Dragon\" exceeded 87 million yuan only half an hour after the auction started in Ali. Platform data shows that it has experienced a total of 2,105 rounds of bidding, and more than 2.32 million people watched the grand occasion of the auction. In the end, the auction was suspended due to possible malicious speculation and bidding. One day later, another personal item of the same holder, USB flash drive, was also auctioned for a sky-high price of nearly 40,000 yuan, and the auction was also forcibly suspended.</p><p>Yan Chuang, a lawyer at Beijing Zhongwen Law Firm, told Radar Finance that if a person participating in a judicial auction is found to be a malicious auction, the people's court can impose fines and detention according to the seriousness of the circumstances, and if a crime is constituted, criminal responsibility can also be investigated in accordance with the law. If the last person who made a transaction fails to pay the money within the time limit, resulting in re-auction, he should also bear the difference and cost loss caused by it. However, according to the current situation, due to the cancellation of the auction, the final bidder will not be held accountable.</p><p>Radar Finance noticed that someone had been punished for malicious bidding and regretting the auction before. In addition, Ali Auction has also reminded of the risk of regret.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that behind this auction, there is also a major corruption case hidden. In November 2020, Zhang Yujie, an employee of a company in Chuzhou, was sentenced to life imprisonment on suspicion of corruption, and all his personal property was confiscated. It is worth mentioning that the \"luxury goods\" he bought with the embezzled funds of 69.9325 million yuan include Rolex watches, Lafite in 1982, in addition to the pure gold card of \"Blue Eyes and White Dragon\" game king...</p><p><b>Yu-Gi King cards started at 80 yuan and sold at a sky-high price of 87 million</b></p><p>The Game King \"Blue Eyes and White Dragon\" auctioned this time is a limited-edition card, which is made of about 11g of 24K gold. It is a king-level collection among the exchangeable cards.</p><p>Game King is an anime broadcast in Japan after 2000, with card monster duel and seven thousand-year-old artifacts as the main line, and its card game is the highest-selling exchange card game in the world developed by KONAMI and certified by Guinness World Records. At present, the cumulative sale of this series of cards has exceeded 25.17 billion.</p><p>According to media reports, the series to which this card belongs is limited to 500 sets, each of which has a unique collection number and certificate printed with \"No.1-500\". The official price is 200,000 yen (about 12,000 yuan), and the market price is around 200,000-300,000 yuan.</p><p>Radar Finance noticed that this price is not outstanding in the card history of Yu-Gi-Oh. Previously, some Japanese netizens exposed a \"Blue-Eyed Ultimate Dragon\" with a price of up to 45 million yen, which is said to be the championship prize of the 2001 Asian Championships, the only one in the world; Others put the prize card \"Chaos Warrior\" of an official competition in 2000 on the online mall, with a price of 999.8 million yen, which is now about over 58 million yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6624224470d5695709484e2e4c7d7420\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, after the sky-high price of 87 million yuan was auctioned, this \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" has undoubtedly broken the previous record and become the highest-priced Game King card in the world.</p><p>According to the data of Ali Auction, a total of 18,104 people signed up for this auction, 76,716 people set reminders, and more than 2.3 million onlookers. The reason why the starting price is only 80 yuan, according to an up owner who participated in the auction, is that after the original holder entrusted a friend to buy it from Japan, he threw away the packaging box and certificate in order to avoid taxes when passing through customs.</p><p>At 16:00 on June 21st, the card officially started to be auctioned. As of 16:32: 34, 2,105 people had bid for the auction. Before the auction was stopped, the last bidder bid number was Y8745, with a bid of 87,326,098 yuan.</p><p>According to the statistics of some netizens, Y8745 bid 3 times in total. The entry time was 25 minutes after the auction started, and the bid amounts were 52156075, 54106076 and the last 87326098 respectively. The top three bidders made 47, 33 and 25 bids.</p><p><b>After the most expensive Yu-Gi-Oh card in history, the most expensive U flash drive in history appears</b></p><p>It is worth mentioning that on June 22, another property under the name of the original owner of \"Blue Eyes White Dragon\"-a SanDisk U flash drive was also suspended from the auction because \"the value of the lot is seriously inconsistent with the actual auction price, and there may be malicious price increase. behavior\".</p><p>The Intermediate People's Court of Chuzhou City, Anhui Province said in the announcement on a U flash drive of the executed person that the starting price of the U flash drive is 40 yuan, and the evaluated price is 50 yuan. Its service life is unknown, it has not been used for a long time, and there are no accessories and instructions. Whether it can be used normally is unknown.</p><p>But at the end of June 21st, the bidding price of the USB flash drive had risen to 1512 yuan. As of 15: 21: 45 on June 22nd, that is, before the auction was suspended, the auction price of the U flash drive was as high as 39,810 yuan, with a total of 1,186 bids, attracting more than 290,000 onlookers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/668ef66d7a88165ee2e260cc041e0701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"This should be the most expensive USB flash drive in history, right?\" Some netizens lamented. According to the pictures displayed, the U flash drive has only 4GB of memory. Radar Finance search found that the most expensive U flash drive in the e-commerce platform SanDisk flagship store is currently priced at 1,499 yuan, with a memory of 1TB, which is more than 250 times that of the auction U flash drive. However, there are also rumors that the reason why the U flash drive was robbed was that it contained Bitcoin's secret key.</p><p>\"The series of lots in the same case have maliciously raised prices twice in a row, and the auction of other lots has been terminated.\" According to the platform announcement, due to the sky-high price of Yu-Gi-Oh cards and U flash drives in the past two days, the auction of other lots of the holder has been suspended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b505dfca4e980f39ff75f7eff2e359\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Lawyer: Malicious bidding needs to bear serious consequences</b></p><p>\"The deposit is not high, so netizens find it fun, and they don't know the seriousness of judicial auction.\" Lawyer Yan Chuang said.</p><p>According to Article 111 of the Civil Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China and Article 187 of the Interpretation of the Supreme People's Court on the Application of the Civil Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China, the people's court may impose a fine or detain on a buyer who maliciously raises the price in judicial online auction and disturbs the order of judicial auction. If it constitutes a crime, it shall be investigated for criminal responsibility according to law.</p><p>Yan Chuang explained that malicious auction means that those who participate in judicial auction have no real intention to buy, register false personal information, or collude with the executed person or know that they have no ability to pay, but still bid with others, maliciously raise the price, prevent others from bidding normally, and lead to various behaviors that hinder and interfere with court execution and judicial auction activities, such as failed auction.</p><p>In addition, the relevant laws also stipulate that after the judicial online auction is completed, the deposit paid by the buyer will not be refunded even if he regrets the auction. If the buyer fails to pay the price within the time limit, the people's court may decide to re-auction. If the re-auction price is lower than the original auction price, the difference and cost loss caused by it shall also be borne by the original buyer.</p><p>\"The last transaction is the highest price transaction. If it fails to pay the money within the time limit, resulting in a re-auction, it will have to bear the price difference and cost losses.\" Yan Chuang pointed out.</p><p>However, Yan Chuang also admitted that the auction has been cancelled at present, and the last bidder does not need to bear the corresponding responsibility. \"People still need to raise their legal awareness.\"</p><p>Radar Finance noticed that in the reminder of Ali's auction, a bidder had previously broken the contract, was detained by the judiciary for 15 days, and fined 100,000 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed663f33627d1f4b7d6b37576e2b854d\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"796\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e7d1fe16c72c8e3516881f5da185280\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Originated from the major corruption case five years ago</b></p><p>Behind the most expensive Game King card and the most expensive U disk in this auction, there is a major corruption case hidden.</p><p>According to the indictment publicized by the People's Procuratorate of Chuzhou City, Anhui Province, Zhang Yujie, the original holder of the \"Blue Eyes and White Dragon\" game Wang Chunjin card, was born in 1995. From 2016 to April 2019, he took advantage of his work in the fund custody position of a company in Chuzhou City, and repeatedly embezzled the custody funds of the stock house totaling 69.9325 million yuan by collecting the custody funds without recording them, falsifying the facts of collection, etc.</p><p>Specifically, Zhang Yujie successively embezzled the custody funds paid by 399 buyers, and also purchased two houses in Chuzhou City in the name of his girlfriend Zhou Moumou at that time. Without paying the purchase price, he issued false custody certificates for the transaction funds of stock houses in Chuzhou City, and embezzled custody funds of 2.6 million yuan and 3.9 million yuan according to the false custody certificates.</p><p>According to Ali's auction bidding announcement, the property bought by Zhang Yujie with \"stolen money\" includes Hainan Huanghuali wooden bracelet, 8 watches of Rolex, GUCCI and OMEGA, 3 DIOR glasses, 10 bottles of red wine and commemorative banknotes with great collectible value, such as Lafite Winery Dry Red Wine 1982, but it is a dry electronic product that highlights its personality most. Including BRIKK gold-plated and diamond-studded game controller, 500 million limited edition PS4 Pro console, \"God of War 4\" limited edition PS4 Pro console, 3 Switch consoles, 4 Alien computers, a large number of Sony and beats headphones and 4 Apple tablets Computers, 2 laptops, 11 mobile phones...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/febc5320757fdea9e3866b27dbf3d2eb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Public information shows that the deluxe version of the gold-plated and diamond-encrusted PS4 controller is priced at about US $14,000, the 500 million limited edition PS4 Pro console is priced at 3,799 yuan, and the limited edition PS4 Pro console of \"God of War 4\" is priced at about US $400.</p><p>In March 2020, Zhang Yujie was detained by the Tianchang Municipal Supervisory Committee on suspicion of corruption. Two months later, he was arrested by the Tianchang Municipal Public Security Bureau. In November of the same year, Zhang Yujie was sentenced to life imprisonment and all his personal property was confiscated.</p>","source":"lsy1575359225748","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the \"most expensive game card in history\" lies a major corruption case</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the \"most expensive game card in history\" lies a major corruption case\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雷达财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 22:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Text | Zhang Kaijing</p><p>How expensive can a commemorative card be? The answer is 87 million yuan.</p><p>On June 21, 2021, the bidding price of the Yu-Gi Oh limited-edition card \"Blue Eyes White Dragon\" exceeded 87 million yuan only half an hour after the auction started in Ali. Platform data shows that it has experienced a total of 2,105 rounds of bidding, and more than 2.32 million people watched the grand occasion of the auction. In the end, the auction was suspended due to possible malicious speculation and bidding. One day later, another personal item of the same holder, USB flash drive, was also auctioned for a sky-high price of nearly 40,000 yuan, and the auction was also forcibly suspended.</p><p>Yan Chuang, a lawyer at Beijing Zhongwen Law Firm, told Radar Finance that if a person participating in a judicial auction is found to be a malicious auction, the people's court can impose fines and detention according to the seriousness of the circumstances, and if a crime is constituted, criminal responsibility can also be investigated in accordance with the law. If the last person who made a transaction fails to pay the money within the time limit, resulting in re-auction, he should also bear the difference and cost loss caused by it. However, according to the current situation, due to the cancellation of the auction, the final bidder will not be held accountable.</p><p>Radar Finance noticed that someone had been punished for malicious bidding and regretting the auction before. In addition, Ali Auction has also reminded of the risk of regret.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that behind this auction, there is also a major corruption case hidden. In November 2020, Zhang Yujie, an employee of a company in Chuzhou, was sentenced to life imprisonment on suspicion of corruption, and all his personal property was confiscated. It is worth mentioning that the \"luxury goods\" he bought with the embezzled funds of 69.9325 million yuan include Rolex watches, Lafite in 1982, in addition to the pure gold card of \"Blue Eyes and White Dragon\" game king...</p><p><b>Yu-Gi King cards started at 80 yuan and sold at a sky-high price of 87 million</b></p><p>The Game King \"Blue Eyes and White Dragon\" auctioned this time is a limited-edition card, which is made of about 11g of 24K gold. It is a king-level collection among the exchangeable cards.</p><p>Game King is an anime broadcast in Japan after 2000, with card monster duel and seven thousand-year-old artifacts as the main line, and its card game is the highest-selling exchange card game in the world developed by KONAMI and certified by Guinness World Records. At present, the cumulative sale of this series of cards has exceeded 25.17 billion.</p><p>According to media reports, the series to which this card belongs is limited to 500 sets, each of which has a unique collection number and certificate printed with \"No.1-500\". The official price is 200,000 yen (about 12,000 yuan), and the market price is around 200,000-300,000 yuan.</p><p>Radar Finance noticed that this price is not outstanding in the card history of Yu-Gi-Oh. Previously, some Japanese netizens exposed a \"Blue-Eyed Ultimate Dragon\" with a price of up to 45 million yen, which is said to be the championship prize of the 2001 Asian Championships, the only one in the world; Others put the prize card \"Chaos Warrior\" of an official competition in 2000 on the online mall, with a price of 999.8 million yen, which is now about over 58 million yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6624224470d5695709484e2e4c7d7420\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, after the sky-high price of 87 million yuan was auctioned, this \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" has undoubtedly broken the previous record and become the highest-priced Game King card in the world.</p><p>According to the data of Ali Auction, a total of 18,104 people signed up for this auction, 76,716 people set reminders, and more than 2.3 million onlookers. The reason why the starting price is only 80 yuan, according to an up owner who participated in the auction, is that after the original holder entrusted a friend to buy it from Japan, he threw away the packaging box and certificate in order to avoid taxes when passing through customs.</p><p>At 16:00 on June 21st, the card officially started to be auctioned. As of 16:32: 34, 2,105 people had bid for the auction. Before the auction was stopped, the last bidder bid number was Y8745, with a bid of 87,326,098 yuan.</p><p>According to the statistics of some netizens, Y8745 bid 3 times in total. The entry time was 25 minutes after the auction started, and the bid amounts were 52156075, 54106076 and the last 87326098 respectively. The top three bidders made 47, 33 and 25 bids.</p><p><b>After the most expensive Yu-Gi-Oh card in history, the most expensive U flash drive in history appears</b></p><p>It is worth mentioning that on June 22, another property under the name of the original owner of \"Blue Eyes White Dragon\"-a SanDisk U flash drive was also suspended from the auction because \"the value of the lot is seriously inconsistent with the actual auction price, and there may be malicious price increase. behavior\".</p><p>The Intermediate People's Court of Chuzhou City, Anhui Province said in the announcement on a U flash drive of the executed person that the starting price of the U flash drive is 40 yuan, and the evaluated price is 50 yuan. Its service life is unknown, it has not been used for a long time, and there are no accessories and instructions. Whether it can be used normally is unknown.</p><p>But at the end of June 21st, the bidding price of the USB flash drive had risen to 1512 yuan. As of 15: 21: 45 on June 22nd, that is, before the auction was suspended, the auction price of the U flash drive was as high as 39,810 yuan, with a total of 1,186 bids, attracting more than 290,000 onlookers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/668ef66d7a88165ee2e260cc041e0701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"This should be the most expensive USB flash drive in history, right?\" Some netizens lamented. According to the pictures displayed, the U flash drive has only 4GB of memory. Radar Finance search found that the most expensive U flash drive in the e-commerce platform SanDisk flagship store is currently priced at 1,499 yuan, with a memory of 1TB, which is more than 250 times that of the auction U flash drive. However, there are also rumors that the reason why the U flash drive was robbed was that it contained Bitcoin's secret key.</p><p>\"The series of lots in the same case have maliciously raised prices twice in a row, and the auction of other lots has been terminated.\" According to the platform announcement, due to the sky-high price of Yu-Gi-Oh cards and U flash drives in the past two days, the auction of other lots of the holder has been suspended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b505dfca4e980f39ff75f7eff2e359\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Lawyer: Malicious bidding needs to bear serious consequences</b></p><p>\"The deposit is not high, so netizens find it fun, and they don't know the seriousness of judicial auction.\" Lawyer Yan Chuang said.</p><p>According to Article 111 of the Civil Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China and Article 187 of the Interpretation of the Supreme People's Court on the Application of the Civil Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China, the people's court may impose a fine or detain on a buyer who maliciously raises the price in judicial online auction and disturbs the order of judicial auction. If it constitutes a crime, it shall be investigated for criminal responsibility according to law.</p><p>Yan Chuang explained that malicious auction means that those who participate in judicial auction have no real intention to buy, register false personal information, or collude with the executed person or know that they have no ability to pay, but still bid with others, maliciously raise the price, prevent others from bidding normally, and lead to various behaviors that hinder and interfere with court execution and judicial auction activities, such as failed auction.</p><p>In addition, the relevant laws also stipulate that after the judicial online auction is completed, the deposit paid by the buyer will not be refunded even if he regrets the auction. If the buyer fails to pay the price within the time limit, the people's court may decide to re-auction. If the re-auction price is lower than the original auction price, the difference and cost loss caused by it shall also be borne by the original buyer.</p><p>\"The last transaction is the highest price transaction. If it fails to pay the money within the time limit, resulting in a re-auction, it will have to bear the price difference and cost losses.\" Yan Chuang pointed out.</p><p>However, Yan Chuang also admitted that the auction has been cancelled at present, and the last bidder does not need to bear the corresponding responsibility. \"People still need to raise their legal awareness.\"</p><p>Radar Finance noticed that in the reminder of Ali's auction, a bidder had previously broken the contract, was detained by the judiciary for 15 days, and fined 100,000 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed663f33627d1f4b7d6b37576e2b854d\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"796\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e7d1fe16c72c8e3516881f5da185280\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Originated from the major corruption case five years ago</b></p><p>Behind the most expensive Game King card and the most expensive U disk in this auction, there is a major corruption case hidden.</p><p>According to the indictment publicized by the People's Procuratorate of Chuzhou City, Anhui Province, Zhang Yujie, the original holder of the \"Blue Eyes and White Dragon\" game Wang Chunjin card, was born in 1995. From 2016 to April 2019, he took advantage of his work in the fund custody position of a company in Chuzhou City, and repeatedly embezzled the custody funds of the stock house totaling 69.9325 million yuan by collecting the custody funds without recording them, falsifying the facts of collection, etc.</p><p>Specifically, Zhang Yujie successively embezzled the custody funds paid by 399 buyers, and also purchased two houses in Chuzhou City in the name of his girlfriend Zhou Moumou at that time. Without paying the purchase price, he issued false custody certificates for the transaction funds of stock houses in Chuzhou City, and embezzled custody funds of 2.6 million yuan and 3.9 million yuan according to the false custody certificates.</p><p>According to Ali's auction bidding announcement, the property bought by Zhang Yujie with \"stolen money\" includes Hainan Huanghuali wooden bracelet, 8 watches of Rolex, GUCCI and OMEGA, 3 DIOR glasses, 10 bottles of red wine and commemorative banknotes with great collectible value, such as Lafite Winery Dry Red Wine 1982, but it is a dry electronic product that highlights its personality most. Including BRIKK gold-plated and diamond-studded game controller, 500 million limited edition PS4 Pro console, \"God of War 4\" limited edition PS4 Pro console, 3 Switch consoles, 4 Alien computers, a large number of Sony and beats headphones and 4 Apple tablets Computers, 2 laptops, 11 mobile phones...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/febc5320757fdea9e3866b27dbf3d2eb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Public information shows that the deluxe version of the gold-plated and diamond-encrusted PS4 controller is priced at about US $14,000, the 500 million limited edition PS4 Pro console is priced at 3,799 yuan, and the limited edition PS4 Pro console of \"God of War 4\" is priced at about US $400.</p><p>In March 2020, Zhang Yujie was detained by the Tianchang Municipal Supervisory Committee on suspicion of corruption. Two months later, he was arrested by the Tianchang Municipal Public Security Bureau. In November of the same year, Zhang Yujie was sentenced to life imprisonment and all his personal property was confiscated.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h3GLEKF7fJ7gkRSxVxq2zw\">雷达财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e584cf3e83856adee20fc26b5873221","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h3GLEKF7fJ7gkRSxVxq2zw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191907311","content_text":"文|张凯旌\n一张纪念卡牌能有多贵？答案是8700万元。\n2021年6月21日，游戏王限量卡牌“青眼白龙”在阿里拍卖开拍仅半小时后，竞买价格就突破了8700万元。平台数据显示，其共经历2105轮竞买，有超过232万人围观了此次拍卖会的盛况。最终，因可能存在恶意炒作与竞价行为，本场拍卖被中止。一天后，相同持有人的另一私人物品——U盘也被拍出近4万元的天价，而这场拍卖同样遭到了强制中止。\n北京市中闻律师事务所律师闫创对雷达财经表示，若参与司法拍卖的人员被认定属于恶意竞拍，人民法院可以根据情节严重程度予以罚款、拘留，构成犯罪的还可以依法追究刑事责任。最后一个成交的人如果因逾期不支付款项，导致重新拍卖，造成的差价及费用损失也应由他来承担。不过根据目前的情况，因拍卖取消，最后出价的人不用被追究责任。\n雷达财经注意到，此前曾有人为恶意出价并悔拍的行为遭处罚。此外，阿里拍卖也曾提示过悔拍风险。\n值得一提的是，此次拍卖背后，还隐藏着一个贪腐大案。2020年11月，滁州某公司员工张雨杰因涉嫌贪污罪被判处无期徒刑，没收个人全部财产。值得一提的是，他用贪污得来的6993.25万元资金所购买的“奢侈品”，除了“青眼白龙”游戏王纯金卡牌，还包括劳力士手表、82年拉菲……\n游戏王卡牌80元起拍，拍出8700万天价\n此次拍卖的游戏王“青眼白龙”属于限量卡牌，用料为约11g的24K金，是集换式卡牌中的王者级藏品。\n游戏王是2000年后在日本播出的一部以卡牌怪兽决斗和七件千年神器为主线的动漫，而其卡片游戏则是由KONAMI研发，吉尼斯世界纪录认证的全世界销量最高的集换式卡牌游戏。目前，该系列卡牌累计发售已突破251亿7000万张。\n据媒体报道，该卡牌所属系列限量发售500套，每一张都有独特的印有“No.1-500”的收藏编号和证书，官方定价为20万日元（约合1.2万元人民币），市场价在20-30万元左右。\n雷达财经注意到，这个价格在游戏王的卡牌历史中本不算出众。此前有日本网友晒出一张售价高达4500万日元的“青眼究极龙”，据说是2001年亚洲锦标赛的冠军奖品，全世界仅此一张；还有人将2000年某次官方大赛的奖品卡“混沌战士”上架至网络商城，标价9.998亿日元，放在现在约合超5800万元人民币。\n\n但是在拍出8700万元的天价后，这张“青眼白龙”无疑已经打破此前的纪录，成为了全世界拍卖价格最高的游戏王卡牌。\n从阿里拍卖的数据来看，此次拍卖共有18104人报名，76716人设置提醒，超过230万次围观。之所以起拍价仅为80元，根据一位参与拍卖的up主所述，是因为原持有人委托友人从日本购入后，过海关时为了避税把包装盒及证书都扔了。\n6月21日16时，该卡牌正式开始拍卖，截至16时32分34秒，已有2105人出价拍卖，在拍卖被叫停前，最后一名出价的网友竞买号为Y8745，出价8732.6098万元。\n有网友统计发现，Y8745共出价3次，进场时间在开始拍卖25分钟后，出价金额分别是52156075、54106076和最后的87326098。而竞拍次数排名前三位的竞拍者则拍了47、33和25次。\n史上最贵游戏王卡牌后又现史上最贵U盘\n值得一提的是，6月22日，“青眼白龙”原持有人名下的另一项财产——一个SanDisk U盘也因“拍品价值与实际竞拍价格严重不符，可能存在恶意抬价的行为”被中止拍卖。\n安徽省滁州市中级人民法院在关于被执行人U盘1个的公告中称，该U盘起拍价为40元，评估价为50元，使用年限不明，长久未使用，无任何配件及说明书，能否正常使用不详。\n但6月21日结束时，该U盘的竞买价格已升至1512元。而截至6月22日15时21分45秒，即拍卖中止前，该U盘的拍卖价格更是高达39810元，共有1186次竞买，总计吸引了超29万次围观。\n\n“这应该是史上最贵U盘了吧？”有网友感叹。根据展示出的图片，该U盘内存仅4GB，雷达财经搜索发现，目前电商平台闪迪旗舰店中，最贵的U盘售价为1499元，内存1TB，是拍卖U盘的超250倍。但也有传言称，该U盘遭疯抢的原因系其中存着比特币的秘钥。\n“同一案件的系列拍品，已经连续两次出现恶意抬价行为，对其他拍品终止拍卖。”根据平台公告，受近两日天价游戏王卡牌和U盘的影响，已中止对该持有人其他拍品的拍卖活动。\n\n律师：恶意竞拍需承担严重后果\n“保证金不高，网民们就觉得好玩，对于司法拍卖的严肃性并不了解。”律师闫创称。\n根据《中华人民共和国民事诉讼法》第一百一十一条及《最高人民法院关于适用〈中华人民共和国民事诉讼法〉的解释》第一百八十七条之规定，对于在司法网拍中恶意抬价，扰乱司法拍卖秩序的买受人，人民法院可以对其罚款、拘留，构成犯罪的，依法追究刑事责任。\n闫创解释称，恶意竞拍，就是参与司法拍卖的人员，没有真实购买意愿，登记虚假个人信息、或者与被执行人串通或明知自己无支付能力，仍与他人竞价、恶意抬价，阻止他人正常竞买，导致流拍等各种妨碍、干扰法院执行和司法拍卖活动的行为。\n除此之外，相关法律还规定，司法网拍成交后，买受人即使悔拍，其所交纳的保证金也不予退还。如果买受人逾期未支付价款，人民法院可以裁定重新拍卖。重新拍卖的价款若低于原拍卖价款，所造成的差价、费用损失等，亦由原买受人承担。\n“最后一个成交的，就是最高价成交，如果其逾期不支付款项，导致重新拍卖的话，其要承担所造成的差价及费用损失。”闫创指出。\n不过闫创也坦言，目前拍卖已被取消，最后一个出价的竞买人也就无需承担相应责任。“民众还是需要提高法律意识。”\n雷达财经注意到，阿里拍卖的提示中，此前有竞拍人毁约，被司法拘留15日，并罚款10万元。\n\n\n缘起五年前贪污大案\n此次拍卖的最贵游戏王卡牌、最贵U盘背后，隐藏着一个贪腐大案。\n安徽省滁州市人民检察院公示的起诉书显示，“青眼白龙”游戏王纯金卡牌的原持有者张雨杰出生于1995年，在2016年至2019年4月期间，借自己在滁州市某公司存量房资金托管岗位工作的契机，采取收取托管资金不入账直接侵吞、伪造收款事实等方式，多次贪污存量房托管资金计6993.25万元。\n具体而言，张雨杰先后侵吞了399户买房人缴纳的托管资金，还曾以时任女友周某某的名义购买了位于滁州市的两套房产，在未缴纳购房款的情况下，开具虚假的滁州市存量房交易资金托管凭证，根据虚假托管凭证侵吞托管资金260万元、390万元。\n根据阿里拍卖竞买公告，张雨杰用“赃款”购买的财产包括海南黄花梨木质手串、劳力士、GUCCI、OMEGA共计8块手表、3支DIOR眼镜、拉菲酒庄干红葡萄酒1982等10瓶极具收藏价值的红葡萄酒、纪念钞等，但最能突出其个性的还是一干电子产品。包括BRIKK镀金镶钻游戏手柄、五亿限定版PS4 Pro主机、《战神4》限定版PS4 Pro主机，3台Switch主机、4台外星人电脑、大量索尼、beats的耳机和苹果的4台平板电脑、2台笔记本电脑、11部手机……\n\n公开信息显示，镀金镶钻PS4手柄豪华版售价约14000美元，五亿限定版PS4 Pro主机售价3799元，《战神4》限定版PS4 Pro主机售价约400美元。\n2020年3月，张雨杰因涉嫌贪污罪被天长市监察委员会留置，两个月后，其被天长市公安局执行逮捕。同年11月，张雨杰被判处无期徒刑，没收个人全部财产。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129255294,"gmtCreate":1624374952718,"gmtModify":1703834925157,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment, thank you so much&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment, thank you so much&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment, thank you so much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129255294","repostId":"1196342132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196342132","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美国最大的独立第三方研究机构之一，成立20年，专为美股、港股、A股个人投资者提供前沿内容。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"弹道财经","id":"1031387410","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d5f4b95db8404bba99942eba2fb10c"},"pubTimestamp":1624362521,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196342132?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Value Stocks Return! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196342132","media":"弹道财经","summary":"随着价值股也成为趋势股，投资者对低估值、强趋势的股票的兴趣正在大量集结。","content":"<p>By David Eifrig, PhD</p><p>Abstract: Whether you agree with Buffett or Soros, you can grasp a kind of trading opportunity now, because it actually conforms to the ideas of these two bosses at the same time!</p><p><b>This article focuses on</b></p><p><b>1. Buffett VS Soros, who will you side with?</b></p><p><b>2. Value stocks are becoming trend stocks, and the two bosses reach the same goal by different routes?</b></p><p>Berry Research Statement: The views in this article are based on open market information and historical data. They are not used as direct investment suggestions and are for communication only. Welcome to leave a message to discuss related topics.</p><p><b>PART1</b></p><p><b>Buffett VS Soros, who will you side with?</b></p><p>In many cases, investors entering the market have to face a multiple-choice question, should they side with Buffett or Soros? Behind them are two sets of investment philosophies.</p><p>The success of investors Warren Buffett and George Soros is legendary. Whether Soros made $1 billion during the \"downfall of the Bank of England\" period, or Buffett got a 1550% return from Coca-Cola stock, they all have a brilliant record, which is a success that many people can hardly replicate.</p><p>But if investors intend to imitate the investment routines of these two legends, they usually can only choose one big man to follow. Because the views of these two investment tycoons on volatility and risk are diametrically opposite. Most of the time, investors either side with Buffett or Soros.</p><p><b>Buffett is known for his value investing, and he cautiously focuses on companies with strong fundamentals.</b>He is a long-term investor and is not good at speculative trading. In the long run, he has proven that his strategy works-his return on investment is enough to dump most speculators a few blocks.</p><p>Buffett famously said, \"Only when the tide goes out will you know who is swimming naked.\"</p><p>In other words, it is the bull market that provides cover for excessively risky bets. But if investors have been taking risks, but have not done their due diligence and are not adequately prepared for the decline, then investors will bear the brunt when the bubble bursts.</p><p><b>Contrary to Buffett, Soros likes to jump into strong market trends</b>(Translator's note: Trend investors, that is, what we often call chasing ups and killing downs), as he said in 2009: \"When I see a bubble form, I will buy quickly and add fuel to the fire.\"</p><p>In Soros's view, the speculative frenzy is not a red flag, but an opportunity. After the market breaks away from the fundamentals, they will continue to rise at an unprecedented rate, which is simply unimaginable with fixed earnings growth.</p><p>At times like this,<b>Soros's investment philosophy is to put aside fundamentals and invest according to investor sentiment.</b></p><p>It can be seen that from these two most successful investors in history, what we can see is diametrically opposite investment wisdom. Soros wants to swim naked until the last wave hits, while Buffett will say, Beware, you have to wear swimming trunks.</p><p>This is an essential problem lurking in investment.</p><p>When investors see some market signs, such as seeing that a trend is forming and funds are flowing, do they want to follow the trend and ride the wind and waves at this time? Or should we consider \"mean\" regression and bet on their true value? Most of the time, there is no unique correct answer to this multiple choice question.</p><p>For example, in the recent \"meme stock\" frenzy, some stocks, including struggling retailer GameStop (symbol: GME), have been completely out of touch with reality.</p><p>Maybe Soros will say that the market is too crazy and it's time to make big money, so he will find a relatively perfect trading opportunity for GameStop to aggravate the madness of this stock.</p><p>Buffett is the opposite. He might say that GameStop's price is ridiculous and unsustainable, and he would never get his hands on this stock.</p><p>As shown in the chart below, as of now, Soros's trading method is mostly correct. However, we are also convinced that Buffett's judgment will eventually be verified.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131badcea9697f37888f66d925cc5811\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But those crazy stocks aside,<b>At present, a factor is emerging in the market, giving investors the opportunity to take sides with Soros and Buffett at the same time. There are some types of stocks that may be favored by both the Soros camp and the Buffett camp.</b></p><p><b>PART2</b></p><p><b>Value stocks are becoming trend stocks, and the two big guys reach the same goal by different routes?</b></p><p>Value stocks are Buffett's favorite type of investment. Simply put, they refer to stocks with low valuations. They can usually<b>Use a lower price-to-book ratio as a judgment index.</b>Value investors typically explore stable investment opportunities in these stocks with solid but undervalued businesses.</p><p>Trend stocks mainly refer to those stocks whose prices continue to rise.<b>Generally speaking, they tend to generate positive high yields for 12 consecutive months.</b></p><p>The vast majority of the time, value investors and trend investors have opposite views on the market. Specifically:</p><p>The value school believes that if the price of a stock goes up, then its price becomes no longer cheap.</p><p>Trenders believe that if a stock is trading cheap, its price will usually continue to go lower.</p><p>And as the economy strengthens, the market begins to favor value stocks.<b>Value stocks also have the characteristics of trend stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39214033b136845c7cfca78cbb02174\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The opportunity could be huge.</p><p>Many investors and institutions on Wall Street identify themselves as value investors, so they buy cheap stocks (side with Buffett), while many traders and hedge funds prefer to follow the trend (side with Soros). Many quantitative and algorithmic-based investors will specifically buy value or trend stocks because they correspond to a certain type.</p><p><b>But as value stocks also become trend stocks, investor interest in low-valuation, strong-trend stocks is building up in large numbers.</b>This may push these stocks higher continuously, forming a stronger trend, which in turn will fuel the frenzy.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Value Stocks Return! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nValue Stocks Return! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1031387410\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d5f4b95db8404bba99942eba2fb10c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">弹道财经 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 19:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By David Eifrig, PhD</p><p>Abstract: Whether you agree with Buffett or Soros, you can grasp a kind of trading opportunity now, because it actually conforms to the ideas of these two bosses at the same time!</p><p><b>This article focuses on</b></p><p><b>1. Buffett VS Soros, who will you side with?</b></p><p><b>2. Value stocks are becoming trend stocks, and the two bosses reach the same goal by different routes?</b></p><p>Berry Research Statement: The views in this article are based on open market information and historical data. They are not used as direct investment suggestions and are for communication only. Welcome to leave a message to discuss related topics.</p><p><b>PART1</b></p><p><b>Buffett VS Soros, who will you side with?</b></p><p>In many cases, investors entering the market have to face a multiple-choice question, should they side with Buffett or Soros? Behind them are two sets of investment philosophies.</p><p>The success of investors Warren Buffett and George Soros is legendary. Whether Soros made $1 billion during the \"downfall of the Bank of England\" period, or Buffett got a 1550% return from Coca-Cola stock, they all have a brilliant record, which is a success that many people can hardly replicate.</p><p>But if investors intend to imitate the investment routines of these two legends, they usually can only choose one big man to follow. Because the views of these two investment tycoons on volatility and risk are diametrically opposite. Most of the time, investors either side with Buffett or Soros.</p><p><b>Buffett is known for his value investing, and he cautiously focuses on companies with strong fundamentals.</b>He is a long-term investor and is not good at speculative trading. In the long run, he has proven that his strategy works-his return on investment is enough to dump most speculators a few blocks.</p><p>Buffett famously said, \"Only when the tide goes out will you know who is swimming naked.\"</p><p>In other words, it is the bull market that provides cover for excessively risky bets. But if investors have been taking risks, but have not done their due diligence and are not adequately prepared for the decline, then investors will bear the brunt when the bubble bursts.</p><p><b>Contrary to Buffett, Soros likes to jump into strong market trends</b>(Translator's note: Trend investors, that is, what we often call chasing ups and killing downs), as he said in 2009: \"When I see a bubble form, I will buy quickly and add fuel to the fire.\"</p><p>In Soros's view, the speculative frenzy is not a red flag, but an opportunity. After the market breaks away from the fundamentals, they will continue to rise at an unprecedented rate, which is simply unimaginable with fixed earnings growth.</p><p>At times like this,<b>Soros's investment philosophy is to put aside fundamentals and invest according to investor sentiment.</b></p><p>It can be seen that from these two most successful investors in history, what we can see is diametrically opposite investment wisdom. Soros wants to swim naked until the last wave hits, while Buffett will say, Beware, you have to wear swimming trunks.</p><p>This is an essential problem lurking in investment.</p><p>When investors see some market signs, such as seeing that a trend is forming and funds are flowing, do they want to follow the trend and ride the wind and waves at this time? Or should we consider \"mean\" regression and bet on their true value? Most of the time, there is no unique correct answer to this multiple choice question.</p><p>For example, in the recent \"meme stock\" frenzy, some stocks, including struggling retailer GameStop (symbol: GME), have been completely out of touch with reality.</p><p>Maybe Soros will say that the market is too crazy and it's time to make big money, so he will find a relatively perfect trading opportunity for GameStop to aggravate the madness of this stock.</p><p>Buffett is the opposite. He might say that GameStop's price is ridiculous and unsustainable, and he would never get his hands on this stock.</p><p>As shown in the chart below, as of now, Soros's trading method is mostly correct. However, we are also convinced that Buffett's judgment will eventually be verified.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131badcea9697f37888f66d925cc5811\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But those crazy stocks aside,<b>At present, a factor is emerging in the market, giving investors the opportunity to take sides with Soros and Buffett at the same time. There are some types of stocks that may be favored by both the Soros camp and the Buffett camp.</b></p><p><b>PART2</b></p><p><b>Value stocks are becoming trend stocks, and the two big guys reach the same goal by different routes?</b></p><p>Value stocks are Buffett's favorite type of investment. Simply put, they refer to stocks with low valuations. They can usually<b>Use a lower price-to-book ratio as a judgment index.</b>Value investors typically explore stable investment opportunities in these stocks with solid but undervalued businesses.</p><p>Trend stocks mainly refer to those stocks whose prices continue to rise.<b>Generally speaking, they tend to generate positive high yields for 12 consecutive months.</b></p><p>The vast majority of the time, value investors and trend investors have opposite views on the market. Specifically:</p><p>The value school believes that if the price of a stock goes up, then its price becomes no longer cheap.</p><p>Trenders believe that if a stock is trading cheap, its price will usually continue to go lower.</p><p>And as the economy strengthens, the market begins to favor value stocks.<b>Value stocks also have the characteristics of trend stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39214033b136845c7cfca78cbb02174\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The opportunity could be huge.</p><p>Many investors and institutions on Wall Street identify themselves as value investors, so they buy cheap stocks (side with Buffett), while many traders and hedge funds prefer to follow the trend (side with Soros). Many quantitative and algorithmic-based investors will specifically buy value or trend stocks because they correspond to a certain type.</p><p><b>But as value stocks also become trend stocks, investor interest in low-valuation, strong-trend stocks is building up in large numbers.</b>This may push these stocks higher continuously, forming a stronger trend, which in turn will fuel the frenzy.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fabf9c2bc6a3d13c57438fc00bbe4f1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196342132","content_text":"作者：David Eifrig博士\n摘要：无论你认可巴菲特，还是认同索罗斯，现在都可以把握一类交易机会，因为它竟然同时符合这两位大佬的理念！\n本文聚焦\n1、巴菲特VS索罗斯，你会站队谁？\n2、价值股正成为趋势股，两位大佬殊途同归？\n贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据形成，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流，欢迎留言探讨相关话题。\nPART1\n巴菲特VS索罗斯，你会站队谁？\n在很多时候，进入市场的投资者都得面对一道选择题，是站队巴菲特还是站队索罗斯？他们背后代表的是两套投资哲学。\n投资家沃伦•巴菲特和乔治•索罗斯的成功都颇具传奇性。无论是索罗斯在“干倒英格兰银行”期间赚了10亿美元，还是巴菲特从可口可乐这只股票中获得了1550%的回报，都战绩赫赫，是很多人难以复制的成功。\n但如果投资者有意模仿这两位传奇人物的投资套路，通常只能选一个大佬来追随。因为，这两位投资大佬对波动性和风险的观点，是截然相反的。在大多数时候，投资者要么站队巴菲特阵营，要么站队索罗斯阵营。\n巴菲特以价值投资著称，他谨慎地专注于基本面强劲的公司。他是个长线投资者，不擅长做投机交易。长期来看，他已经证明了自己的策略是有效的——他的投资回报率足以甩大多数投机者几条街。\n巴菲特有句名言:“只有当潮水退去，你才会知道谁在裸泳。”\n换句话说，就是牛市给过度风险的押注提供了掩护。但如果投资者一直在冒险，却没有尽职做好调研，未对下跌做好充足的准备，那么在泡沫破裂时，投资者将会首当其冲。\n与巴菲特相反，索罗斯则喜欢投身强势的市场趋势中（译者注：趋势投资者，即我们常说的追涨杀跌），正如他在2009年所说的:“当我看到泡沫形成后，我就会赶紧买入，火上浇油一把。”\n在索罗斯看来，投机狂潮并不是一个危险信号，反而是一个机会。市场在脱离基本面后，它们还会以前所未有的速度继续上涨，这在盈利增长固定的情况下根本无法想象。\n在这种时候，索罗斯的投资哲学是抛开基本面，顺着投资者的情绪进行投资。\n由此可见，从这两位有史以来最成功的投资者身上，能看到的是截然相反的投资智慧。索罗斯想裸泳直至最后一波浪潮袭来，而巴菲特则会说，当心，你要穿好泳裤。\n这是潜藏在投资中的一个本质问题。\n当投资者看到一些市场苗头，比如看到趋势正在形成，资金正在流动，此时到底是要追随趋势、乘风破浪？还是该考虑“均值”回归，押注它们的真实价值？在大多数时候，这道选择题没有唯一正确的答案。\n比如在最近的“梗股（meme stock）”狂潮中，包括处境艰难的零售商GameStop (代码：GME)在内，一些股票已经完全脱离了现实。\n可能索罗斯会说市场太疯狂了，赚大钱的时机到了，于是他会找到GameStop相对完美的交易机会，来加剧这只股票的疯狂。\n而巴菲特则恰恰相反，他可能会说GameStop的价格是荒谬且不可持续的，他绝不会染指这种股票。\n如下图所示，截至目前，索罗斯的交易方法大部分是正确的。然而，我们也确信，巴菲特所持的判断，最终也会得到验证。\n\n但撇开那些疯狂的股票不谈，目前市场上正出现一个因素，让投资者有机会同时站队索罗斯和巴菲特。有一些类型的股票，可能同时得到索罗斯阵营和巴菲特阵营的青睐。\nPART2\n价值股正成为趋势股，两位大佬殊途同归？\n价值股是巴菲特最青睐的投资类型，简单来说，就是指估值较低的股票，它们通常可以用较低的市净率作为判断指标。价值投资者通常在这些业务稳固但被低估的股票中，发掘稳定的投资机会。\n而趋势股，则主要指那些价格不断上行的股票，通常来说，它们往往连续12个月为产生正的高收益率。\n绝大多数时候，价值投资者和趋势投资者对市场的看法是相反的。具体来说：\n价值派认为，如果一只股票的价格上涨了，那么它的价格就变得不再便宜。\n趋势派则认为，如果一只股票的交易价格很便宜，那么它的价格通常会继续走低。\n而随着经济走强，市场开始青睐价值股，价值股也有了趋势股的特征。\n\n这个机会可能是巨大的。\n华尔街的许多投资者和机构都自我认定是价值投资者，于是他们买入便宜的股票(站队巴菲特)，而许多交易者和对冲基金，则更喜欢跟随趋势(站队索罗斯)。许多基于量化和算法的投资者会专门买入价值股或趋势股，因为它们对应某个类型。\n但随着价值股也成为趋势股，投资者对低估值、强趋势的股票的兴趣正在大量集结。这或将推动这些股票持续走高，形成更强的趋势，进而助长狂热。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129253312,"gmtCreate":1624374757336,"gmtModify":1703834917593,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment, thank you very much&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment, thank you very much&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment, thank you very much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129253312","repostId":"1142464181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142464181","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624372497,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142464181?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 22:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The daily fresh pricing range is 13-16 US dollars/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142464181","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"北京时间6月22日晚间消息，每日优鲜更新F-1招股书，计划公开发行2100万股美国存托股票（ADS），定价区间为13-16美元/ADS。\n现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金Davis等将持续加码，购买至","content":"<p>News on the evening of June 22, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>Update the F-1 prospectus and plan to publicly issue 21 million American depositary shares (ADS) with a pricing range of US $13-16/ADS.</p><p>Existing shareholders CICC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>, U.S. long-term fund Davis, etc. will continue to increase their weight and buy ADSs worth up to 90 million US dollars.</p><p>According to the prospectus, the net revenue of Daily Youxian from 2018 to 2020 is approximately 3.5467 billion yuan, 6.0014 billion yuan, and 6.1304 billion yuan respectively. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, Daily Youxian's net revenue was 1.6898 billion yuan, and for the three months ended March 31, 2021, the net revenue was 1.5302 billion yuan.</p><p>The prospectus also shows that Daily Youxian's gross profit was 304 million yuan in 2018, an increase of 71.3% to 520.9 million yuan in 2019, and an increase of 128.5% in 2020 to 1.1904 billion yuan. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, the gross profit of Daily Youxian was 510.8 million yuan, compared with 189 million yuan in the same period in 2021.</p><p>From 2018 to 2020, the daily net losses of Youxian were 2.2316 billion yuan, 2.9094 billion yuan, and 1.6492 billion yuan respectively. For the quarter ended March 31, 2020, the daily net loss of Youxian was 194.7 million yuan, and the loss in the same period in 2021 was 610.3 million yuan. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, the adjusted net losses (non-GAAP standards) of Daily Youxian were 2.2159 billion yuan, 2.777 billion yuan, and 1.5897 billion yuan, respectively. For the quarter ended March 31, 2020, the adjusted net loss of Daily Youxian was 175.8 million yuan, and the loss in the same period in 2021 was 598.4 million yuan.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The daily fresh pricing range is 13-16 US dollars/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe daily fresh pricing range is 13-16 US dollars/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 22:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>News on the evening of June 22, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>Update the F-1 prospectus and plan to publicly issue 21 million American depositary shares (ADS) with a pricing range of US $13-16/ADS.</p><p>Existing shareholders CICC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>, U.S. long-term fund Davis, etc. will continue to increase their weight and buy ADSs worth up to 90 million US dollars.</p><p>According to the prospectus, the net revenue of Daily Youxian from 2018 to 2020 is approximately 3.5467 billion yuan, 6.0014 billion yuan, and 6.1304 billion yuan respectively. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, Daily Youxian's net revenue was 1.6898 billion yuan, and for the three months ended March 31, 2021, the net revenue was 1.5302 billion yuan.</p><p>The prospectus also shows that Daily Youxian's gross profit was 304 million yuan in 2018, an increase of 71.3% to 520.9 million yuan in 2019, and an increase of 128.5% in 2020 to 1.1904 billion yuan. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, the gross profit of Daily Youxian was 510.8 million yuan, compared with 189 million yuan in the same period in 2021.</p><p>From 2018 to 2020, the daily net losses of Youxian were 2.2316 billion yuan, 2.9094 billion yuan, and 1.6492 billion yuan respectively. For the quarter ended March 31, 2020, the daily net loss of Youxian was 194.7 million yuan, and the loss in the same period in 2021 was 610.3 million yuan. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, the adjusted net losses (non-GAAP standards) of Daily Youxian were 2.2159 billion yuan, 2.777 billion yuan, and 1.5897 billion yuan, respectively. For the quarter ended March 31, 2020, the adjusted net loss of Daily Youxian was 175.8 million yuan, and the loss in the same period in 2021 was 598.4 million yuan.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc6d948584260429c150c1dd44a898f","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142464181","content_text":"北京时间6月22日晚间消息，每日优鲜更新F-1招股书，计划公开发行2100万股美国存托股票（ADS），定价区间为13-16美元/ADS。\n现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金Davis等将持续加码，购买至多价值9000万美元的ADS。\n招股书显示，每日优鲜2018年-2020年的净营收分别约为35.467亿元， 60.014亿元，61.304亿元。截止2020年3月31日的三个月，每日优鲜的净营收为16.898亿元，截止2021年3月31日的三个月，净营收为15.302亿元。\n招股书还显示，每日优鲜的毛利润在2018年为3.04亿元，2019年增长71.3%了至5.209亿元，2020年再增长128.5%，达到11.904亿元。截止2020年3月31日的三个月，每日优鲜的毛利为5.108亿元，2021年的同期为1.89亿元。\n2018年至2020年，每日优鲜净亏损分别为22.316亿元，29.094亿元、16.492亿元。截止2020年3月31日的一个季度，每日优鲜净亏损1.947亿元，2021年同期亏损6.103亿元。2018年、2019年和2020年，每日优鲜的调整后净亏损（非GAAP标准）分别为22.159亿元、27.77亿元、15.897亿元。截止2020年3月31日的一个季度，每日优鲜调整后净亏损为1.758亿元，2021年同期亏损5.984亿元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168515476,"gmtCreate":1623978586195,"gmtModify":1703825240006,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","text":"Like & comment, thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168515476","repostId":"2144164740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144164740","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623978494,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144164740?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The day after the Fed is expected to earlier the rate hike, long-term U.S. bond yields plummeted. Why?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144164740","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"周四，30年期美债收益率大幅下行16个基点，创2月来最大盘中跌幅和四个月最低，五年/30年期收益率曲线创去年11月来最平。一方面，美联储加息时间提前抑制长期通胀预期，促使收益率曲线走平，同时，这也是QE即将终结的号角。市场对“流动性盛宴”的惯性思维亟需转变。","content":"<p>On Thursday, June 17, one day after the Federal Reserve's FOMC unexpectedly turned hawkish and the \"dot plot\" hinted that it would advance to the 2023 rate hike, the yield of long-term U.S. Treasury Bond plummeted, giving up all yesterday's gains, and the yield curve became even more flat.</p><p>The 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury Bond yield returned below the 1.50% mark, with the deepest decline of 9.7 basis points in the day, and the daily low was forced to 1.47%. Yesterday, it soared from less than 1.50% to 1.569%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd5267d3487e22248de30cd4fd7ac10\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as much as 16 basis points during the day, the largest intraday decline since February, reaching a daily low of 2.049%, the lowest in four months since mid-February</b>。 Yesterday's increase was relatively small, rising from 2.18% to nearly 2.21%, so today's decline is even more striking.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e99ec07722cd40c57e5f41723bb984\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The five-year and 30-year U.S. bond yield curves have flattened, and the yield spread between medium-term and long-term U.S. bonds has plummeted to 118 basis points, the flattest curve since November last year. After yesterday's FOMC meeting, the five-year U.S. bond yield soared by more than 11 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1fcf3d4cdb870f82a2403d36fe9c72c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. bond yields fell, U.S. bank stocks collectively fell sharply. Banking ETFs fell more than 4% at midday, and the Philadelphia KBW Bank Index fell 4.5%, the largest intraday drop in seven months.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Both fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Down 3%.</p><p>At the same time, ICE the US Dollar Index once broke through the 92 integer digit, setting a two-month high since April 13. Spot gold fell below $1,770 for the first time since May 5, and COME August gold futures closed down nearly 4.7%, at least the largest one-day drop of the main contract since November last year, closing at less than $1,775, which was also the lowest since April 30. The lowest closing.</p><p><h2><b>The Fed's rate hike timetable curbs long-term inflation expectations ahead of schedule, prompting the U.S. bond yield curve to flatten</b></h2><b>Why is there a dramatic reversal in long-term U.S. bond yields while the yield curve is accelerating its collapse?</b>According to Bloomberg data, the flattening of the composite U.S. bond yield curve in the past two days is the highest level since the liquidity crisis in March last year.</p><p>Some analysts believe that the latest dot plot of the Federal Reserve expects two rate hike before the end of 2023. This shift has pushed up shorter-term market interest rates and restricted long-term inflation expectations, leading to a flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve. Money market traders even brought forward their 25 basis point pricing expectations for the Fed's rate hike to the fourth quarter of next year.</p><p>George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, believes that the Fed's \"credibility as an inflation fighter\" has given a green light to people who were previously worried about buying long-term Treasury Bond as an investment. Market participants have begun to buy long-term U.S. bonds to hedge their investments. Other riskier positions in the portfolio.</p><p>Priya Misra, head of global interest rate strategy at TD Securities, also believes that the reflation trade has suffered a \"major setback\" following the hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve at its June policy meeting, and recommends exiting bets on the five-year/30-year U.S. bond A deal in which the yield curve steepens. Praveen Korapaty, chief interest rate strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, holds a similar view.</p><p>Financial media CNBC believes that the prices of base metals such as copper continue to fall on a weekly basis, and bond traders are paying attention to the sharp sell-off of commodities. Bond yields typically move in tandem with commodities because they are both seen as barometers of global economic growth. Today's latest data shows that the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the United States increased to 412,000 last week, returning to above the 400,000 mark, higher than market expectations of 360,000. Safe-haven demand has also caused some investors to return to the U.S. bond market, thus depressing bond yields.</p><p>Financial blog Zerohedge quoted analysis from global economic trend website Mish Talk as saying that the U.S. bond yield curve cannot be called \"absolutely flat\" at present, but the trend of gradual flattening is very important. The sharp drop in the 30-year long-term U.S. bond yield itself is also an important signal,<b>This means that the inflation panic is basically in the \"rearview mirror\", that is, it is not the main point that the market is worried about and affects trading actions.</b></p><p><h2><b>The high-profile flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve may be a clarion call for the end of QE quantitative easing bond buying. Investors should buy bonds</b></h2>Wall Street News also pointed out that yesterday's FOMC meeting, which was called \"the most important in five years\", marked that monetary policy will gradually enter the second half. In the future, the focus of market differences may lie in the \"slowness\" and \"urgency\" of monetary policy normalization, rather than whether it will be normalized or not. The inertia thinking of \"liquidity feast\" needs to be changed:</p><p>Judging from the results, we mentioned in Tuesday's preview that the four major \"surprises\" actually came to fruition: the release of Taper, the increase in inflation expectations, the movement of rate hike time, and the increase in IOER/ON RRP interest rates, which means that the Federal Reserve has shown that it has passed Expected guidance tools, releasing a posture of phased exit signals.<b>Many people believe that the high-profile flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve is a warning that QE quantitative easing bond buying is coming to an end</b>。</p><p>Analyst Michael Lebowtiz compared the performance of U.S. bond yields in different periods before, during and after the Fed's previous QEs. He found that the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose during each QE period and fell at the end of QE, as shown in the circle below. When the Federal Reserve reversed QE bond buying through quantitative tightening (QT), U.S. bond yields tend to fall sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5552ccf371c5563f87db936ffe98c66\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Similarly, the two-year/10-year U.S. bond yield curve moves similarly. During QE quantitative easing, short-term yields are relatively stable and long-term yields rise, that is, the yield curve steepens, but after the end of QE, the yield curve will flatten quickly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2370108d5040760978868677b50c507\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The advice he gave was:</p><p>\"From the beginning of QE to the peak yield level during QE, the 10-year U.S. bond yield tends to rise by about 1%. U.S. bond yields will peak before the end of QE, when the Fed will get closer and closer to taper or stop QE purchases. At present, U.S. bond yields are approaching their cyclical highs, and if the Fed approaches tapering bond purchases, U.S. bond yields may peak. Given the previous experience of tapering bond purchases at the end of QE, if the Fed is actually about to taper, the 10-year U.S. bond yield will drop by 1% or more in the next six months to one year. What stock market investors may not know is that bonds are underperforming during QE and will be strong after QE.<b>Bond investors should sell when the Fed buys and buy when the Fed sells.</b>As our confidence in the Fed reducing the pace of quantitative easing grows, both our aggregate bond allocation and bond duration should increase. \" Since the FOMC unexpectedly turned hawkish yesterday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Economists believe that the Federal Reserve will officially announce its taper plan to reduce asset purchases at its September meeting. The actual reduction in bond purchases will begin in November, faster than they previously expected to be announced in November this year and implemented in January next year. And taper is also a precursor to actual rate hike.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Ming Ming once said that a flattened yield curve may have an impact on consumption levels. Therefore, a flattened yield curve usually indicates that the market believes that economic growth is unsustainable and will decline in the future:</p><p>The increase of short-term yield level may indirectly affect some mortgage interest rates. If short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates, some consumer mortgage interest rates will also rise, thus affecting consumers' consumption demand; In addition, the increase of short-term Treasury Bond interest rate may increase some financing costs, and the disposable income of consumers will be relatively reduced, which may have a negative impact on consumer demand. The flattening yield curve also has a negative impact on fixed-income investors and real estate investors.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The day after the Fed is expected to earlier the rate hike, long-term U.S. bond yields plummeted. Why?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe day after the Fed is expected to earlier the rate hike, long-term U.S. bond yields plummeted. Why?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, June 17, one day after the Federal Reserve's FOMC unexpectedly turned hawkish and the \"dot plot\" hinted that it would advance to the 2023 rate hike, the yield of long-term U.S. Treasury Bond plummeted, giving up all yesterday's gains, and the yield curve became even more flat.</p><p>The 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury Bond yield returned below the 1.50% mark, with the deepest decline of 9.7 basis points in the day, and the daily low was forced to 1.47%. Yesterday, it soared from less than 1.50% to 1.569%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd5267d3487e22248de30cd4fd7ac10\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as much as 16 basis points during the day, the largest intraday decline since February, reaching a daily low of 2.049%, the lowest in four months since mid-February</b>。 Yesterday's increase was relatively small, rising from 2.18% to nearly 2.21%, so today's decline is even more striking.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e99ec07722cd40c57e5f41723bb984\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The five-year and 30-year U.S. bond yield curves have flattened, and the yield spread between medium-term and long-term U.S. bonds has plummeted to 118 basis points, the flattest curve since November last year. After yesterday's FOMC meeting, the five-year U.S. bond yield soared by more than 11 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1fcf3d4cdb870f82a2403d36fe9c72c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. bond yields fell, U.S. bank stocks collectively fell sharply. Banking ETFs fell more than 4% at midday, and the Philadelphia KBW Bank Index fell 4.5%, the largest intraday drop in seven months.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Both fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Down 3%.</p><p>At the same time, ICE the US Dollar Index once broke through the 92 integer digit, setting a two-month high since April 13. Spot gold fell below $1,770 for the first time since May 5, and COME August gold futures closed down nearly 4.7%, at least the largest one-day drop of the main contract since November last year, closing at less than $1,775, which was also the lowest since April 30. The lowest closing.</p><p><h2><b>The Fed's rate hike timetable curbs long-term inflation expectations ahead of schedule, prompting the U.S. bond yield curve to flatten</b></h2><b>Why is there a dramatic reversal in long-term U.S. bond yields while the yield curve is accelerating its collapse?</b>According to Bloomberg data, the flattening of the composite U.S. bond yield curve in the past two days is the highest level since the liquidity crisis in March last year.</p><p>Some analysts believe that the latest dot plot of the Federal Reserve expects two rate hike before the end of 2023. This shift has pushed up shorter-term market interest rates and restricted long-term inflation expectations, leading to a flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve. Money market traders even brought forward their 25 basis point pricing expectations for the Fed's rate hike to the fourth quarter of next year.</p><p>George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, believes that the Fed's \"credibility as an inflation fighter\" has given a green light to people who were previously worried about buying long-term Treasury Bond as an investment. Market participants have begun to buy long-term U.S. bonds to hedge their investments. Other riskier positions in the portfolio.</p><p>Priya Misra, head of global interest rate strategy at TD Securities, also believes that the reflation trade has suffered a \"major setback\" following the hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve at its June policy meeting, and recommends exiting bets on the five-year/30-year U.S. bond A deal in which the yield curve steepens. Praveen Korapaty, chief interest rate strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, holds a similar view.</p><p>Financial media CNBC believes that the prices of base metals such as copper continue to fall on a weekly basis, and bond traders are paying attention to the sharp sell-off of commodities. Bond yields typically move in tandem with commodities because they are both seen as barometers of global economic growth. Today's latest data shows that the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the United States increased to 412,000 last week, returning to above the 400,000 mark, higher than market expectations of 360,000. Safe-haven demand has also caused some investors to return to the U.S. bond market, thus depressing bond yields.</p><p>Financial blog Zerohedge quoted analysis from global economic trend website Mish Talk as saying that the U.S. bond yield curve cannot be called \"absolutely flat\" at present, but the trend of gradual flattening is very important. The sharp drop in the 30-year long-term U.S. bond yield itself is also an important signal,<b>This means that the inflation panic is basically in the \"rearview mirror\", that is, it is not the main point that the market is worried about and affects trading actions.</b></p><p><h2><b>The high-profile flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve may be a clarion call for the end of QE quantitative easing bond buying. Investors should buy bonds</b></h2>Wall Street News also pointed out that yesterday's FOMC meeting, which was called \"the most important in five years\", marked that monetary policy will gradually enter the second half. In the future, the focus of market differences may lie in the \"slowness\" and \"urgency\" of monetary policy normalization, rather than whether it will be normalized or not. The inertia thinking of \"liquidity feast\" needs to be changed:</p><p>Judging from the results, we mentioned in Tuesday's preview that the four major \"surprises\" actually came to fruition: the release of Taper, the increase in inflation expectations, the movement of rate hike time, and the increase in IOER/ON RRP interest rates, which means that the Federal Reserve has shown that it has passed Expected guidance tools, releasing a posture of phased exit signals.<b>Many people believe that the high-profile flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve is a warning that QE quantitative easing bond buying is coming to an end</b>。</p><p>Analyst Michael Lebowtiz compared the performance of U.S. bond yields in different periods before, during and after the Fed's previous QEs. He found that the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose during each QE period and fell at the end of QE, as shown in the circle below. When the Federal Reserve reversed QE bond buying through quantitative tightening (QT), U.S. bond yields tend to fall sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5552ccf371c5563f87db936ffe98c66\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Similarly, the two-year/10-year U.S. bond yield curve moves similarly. During QE quantitative easing, short-term yields are relatively stable and long-term yields rise, that is, the yield curve steepens, but after the end of QE, the yield curve will flatten quickly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2370108d5040760978868677b50c507\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The advice he gave was:</p><p>\"From the beginning of QE to the peak yield level during QE, the 10-year U.S. bond yield tends to rise by about 1%. U.S. bond yields will peak before the end of QE, when the Fed will get closer and closer to taper or stop QE purchases. At present, U.S. bond yields are approaching their cyclical highs, and if the Fed approaches tapering bond purchases, U.S. bond yields may peak. Given the previous experience of tapering bond purchases at the end of QE, if the Fed is actually about to taper, the 10-year U.S. bond yield will drop by 1% or more in the next six months to one year. What stock market investors may not know is that bonds are underperforming during QE and will be strong after QE.<b>Bond investors should sell when the Fed buys and buy when the Fed sells.</b>As our confidence in the Fed reducing the pace of quantitative easing grows, both our aggregate bond allocation and bond duration should increase. \" Since the FOMC unexpectedly turned hawkish yesterday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Economists believe that the Federal Reserve will officially announce its taper plan to reduce asset purchases at its September meeting. The actual reduction in bond purchases will begin in November, faster than they previously expected to be announced in November this year and implemented in January next year. And taper is also a precursor to actual rate hike.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Ming Ming once said that a flattened yield curve may have an impact on consumption levels. Therefore, a flattened yield curve usually indicates that the market believes that economic growth is unsustainable and will decline in the future:</p><p>The increase of short-term yield level may indirectly affect some mortgage interest rates. If short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates, some consumer mortgage interest rates will also rise, thus affecting consumers' consumption demand; In addition, the increase of short-term Treasury Bond interest rate may increase some financing costs, and the disposable income of consumers will be relatively reduced, which may have a negative impact on consumer demand. The flattening yield curve also has a negative impact on fixed-income investors and real estate investors.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633223\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633223","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144164740","content_text":"6月17日周四，在美联储FOMC意外转鹰、“点阵图”暗示将提前至2023年加息的一天后，美国长期国债收益率大跌，回吐昨日全部涨幅，收益率曲线更加趋平。\n10年期基准美国国债收益率重回1.50%关口下方，日内最深下行9.7个基点，日低下逼1.47%，昨日曾从不足1.50%飙升至1.569%。\n\n30年期美债收益率日内最深下行16个基点，创2月以来最大盘中跌幅，日低至2.049%，刷新2月中旬来的四个月最低。昨日涨幅相对不大，曾从2.18%升至近2.21%，因此今日跌势更加醒目。\n\n五年期与30年期美债收益率曲线更为趋平，中期与长期美债典型代表的收益率息差骤降至118个基点，曲线为去年11月以来最平状态。昨日FOMC会后，五年期美债收益率曾暴涨超11个基点。\n\n伴随美债收益率下跌，美股银行股集体大跌，午盘时银行业ETF跌超4%，费城KBW银行指数下跌4.5%，创七个月最大盘中跌幅。富国银行、花旗、美国银行、摩根士丹利均跌超4%，高盛和摩根大通跌3%。\n同时，ICE美元指数一度上破92整数位，刷新4月13日以来的两个月高位。现货黄金自5月5日以来首次跌破1770美元，COME 8月期金收跌近4.7%，至少创去年11月以来主力合约最大单日跌幅，收报不足1775美元，也创4月30日以来收盘最低。\n美联储加息时间表提前抑制长期通胀预期，促使美债收益率曲线趋平\n为何长期美债收益率出现戏剧性逆转，同时收益率曲线在加速坍塌？据彭博社数据，过去两天的综合美债收益率曲线趋平幅度，为去年3月流动性危机以来的最高水平。\n有分析认为，美联储最新点阵图预期2023年底之前将加息两次，这一转变推高了较短期限的市场利率，并制约了长期通胀预期，导致美债收益率曲线趋平。货币市场交易员们甚至把对美联储加息25个基点的定价预期提前到了明年第四季度。\nMUFG Securities Americas 美国宏观策略主管George Goncalves认为，美联储“作为通胀斗士的可信度”，给此前担心购买长久期国债作为投资的人们大开绿灯，市场参与者开始购入长期美债，用来对冲投资组合中其他风险更高的头寸。\n道明证券的全球利率策略主管Priya Misra也认为，继美联储在6月政策会议上发出鹰派信号之后，再通胀交易（reflation trade）遭受了“重大挫折”，建议退出押注五年/30年期美债收益率曲线陡峭化的交易。高盛集团首席利率策略师Praveen Korapaty也持类似观点。\n财经媒体CNBC则认为，铜等基础金属价格继续周度下跌，债券交易员正在关注大宗商品的大幅抛售。债券收益率通常与大宗商品同步变动，因为它们都被视为全球经济增长的晴雨表。今日最新数据显示，上周美国首申失业金人数增至41.2万，重回40万关口上方，高于市场预期的36万人，避险需求也导致部分投资者回流美债市场，进而压低债券收益率。\n金融博客Zerohedge援引全球经济趋势网站Mish Talk的分析称，美债收益率曲线目前不能称为“绝对平坦”，但日渐趋平的趋势很重要，30年期长期美债收益率大跌本身也是重要信号，这代表通胀恐慌已经基本处于“后视镜”中，即不是市场主要担心并影响交易举动的要点了。\n美债收益率曲线高调趋平或是QE量宽买债即将终结的号角，投资者应买债\n华尔街见闻也分析指出，昨日被称为“五年来最重要”的FOMC会议标志着货币政策将逐渐走入下半场，以后市场分歧的焦点或在于货币政策正常化的“缓”与“急”，而不是会否正常化，“流动性盛宴”的惯性思维需要作出转变：\n\n 从结果来看，我们在周二前瞻中提到四大“惊喜”居然系数落地：放风Taper，通胀预期上调，加息时点前移，IOER /ON RRP利率上调，这意味着美联储已表现出通过预期引导工具，释放阶段性退出信号的姿态。\n\n不少人认为，美债收益率曲线高调趋平发出的正是QE量宽买债即将终结的警示音。\n分析师Michael Lebowtiz对比了美债收益率在美联储历次QE前、中、后不同时期的表现。他发现，10年期美债收益率在每个QE期间上升、并在QE结束时下降，如下图画圈处所示，当美联储通过量化紧缩 （QT）来逆转QE买债时，美债收益率往往急剧下降。\n\n同样，两年/10年期美债收益率曲线的走势类似。QE量宽期间，短期收益率相对稳定且长期收益率上升，即收益率曲线陡峭化，但在QE结束后，收益率曲线会迅速变平。\n\n他给出的建议是：\n\n “从QE开始到QE期间的峰值收益率水平处，10年期美债收益率往往会上涨约1%。美债收益率会在QE结束前达到峰值，这时美联储也会越来越接近缩减购债（taper）或停止QE购买。目前，美债收益率正接近其周期高点，如果美联储接近缩减购债，美债收益率可能会见顶。鉴于此前的QE末期缩减购债经验，如果美联储实际上即将taper，10年期美债收益率会在未来6个月到一年内下降1%甚至更多。股市投资者可能不知道的是，QE期间债券表现不佳，QE结束后会表现强劲。\n 债券投资者应该在美联储买入时卖出、在美联储卖出时买入。随着我们对美联储降低量化宽松步伐的信心增强，我们的债券配置总量和债券久期都应增加。”\n\n自昨日FOMC意外转鹰后，巴克莱银行的经济学家认为，美联储将在9月会议上正式宣布缩减资产购买的taper计划，实际削减买债从11月开始执行，快于他们此前预期的今年11月宣布和明年1月开始执行。而taper也是实际加息的前兆。\n中信证券明明曾称，趋平的收益率曲线可能会对消费水平有所影响，因此，收益率曲线趋平通常表明市场认为经济增长不可持续，将在未来下降：\n\n 短期收益率水平的上升可能会通过间接影响某些抵押贷款利率，如果短期利率高于长期利率，一些消费抵押贷款利率也会随之升高，进而影响消费者的消费需求；此外，短期国债利率的升高可能会提升部分融资成本，消费者的可支配收入相对减少，对消费需求可能产生负面影响。趋平的收益率曲线对固定收益投资者和房地产投资者也有负面影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184070530,"gmtCreate":1623679294220,"gmtModify":1704208499930,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","text":"Like & comment, thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184070530","repostId":"1123321973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123321973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623649058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123321973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123321973","media":"Wind万得","summary":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策","content":"<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>//The super central bank is coming//</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.</p><p>Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.</p><p>The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//</b></p><p>If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,<b>CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)</p><p>The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.</p><p>The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to suggest when it may begin scaling back its pandemic-era stimulus package and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency devaluation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.</p><p>He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.</b></p><p><b>Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 13:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>//The super central bank is coming//</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.</p><p>Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.</p><p>The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//</b></p><p>If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,<b>CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)</p><p>The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.</p><p>The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to suggest when it may begin scaling back its pandemic-era stimulus package and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency devaluation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.</p><p>He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.</b></p><p><b>Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c642e2602b0226eff0cc78e1452765cc","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123321973","content_text":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球资本市场产生压力。\n// 超级央行周到来  //\n本周，美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议。\n其中，最受关注的还是美联储。\n北京时间6月17日2点，美联储将公布利率决议；半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。\n具体日程参见下方图表：\n\nWind梳理发现，从目前市场预期来看，美联储、日本央行、印尼央行、瑞士央行、挪威央行、土耳其央行和埃及央行等大概率会选择维持现有基准利率水平不变。\n而乌克兰央行可能会选择加息50个基点，巴西央行则可能会加息75个基点。挪威央行可能会暗示在今年9月的时候宣布加息。\n//  通胀飙升，美联储要变脸？  //\n美联储一旦宣布减少每月债券购买规模（QE），将被认为是全球收紧货币政策的关键信号。\nWind查询多方资料发现，目前主流看法是，美联储最快有望在今年8月末之前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放该信号，而更为普遍看法是在今年9月份的会议上宣布。但不人们似乎不太相信美联储认为“通胀只是暂时的”说法。\n美联储在4月份的政策声明中写道：“Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”（通胀已经走高，主要反映了暂时性因素）。因此，对于6月的利率决议来说，美联储是否会删除这一表述，预计将会是引发全市场波动的“震中”。\n目前市场正在等待美联储的明确信号，美元波动率已跌至一年多来的最低水平。\n//  美国CPI创近13年新高  //\n如果美联储改变鸽派立场，通胀将是决定性因素。\n美国劳工部当地时间10日公布的数据显示，5月CPI同比升5%，创2008年8月来新高，预期升4.7%，前值升4.2%，创下近13年来最大同比增幅。\n\n（图片来自Wind金融终端EDB模块）\n与去年疫情期间的数据相比，年度通胀指标得到了提振，当时由于对许多商品和服务的需求暴跌，价格大幅下跌。市场目前预计这种所谓的基数效应将大幅推高5月和6月的通胀数据，直至秋季。\n据美国商务部近期公布的多项数据显示，截止4月，全美范围内的房价正在大幅飙升。\n标普席勒房价指数3月较2020年同期上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最大涨幅，包括纽约、旧金山在内的美国90%的城市房价指数均创下新高。\n6月月初公布的美联储“褐皮书”显示美国通胀压力进一步增加。报告显示，4月初至5月底，美国各辖区经济活动以更快速度温和扩张。各辖区普遍预计，未来几个月成本和销售价格可能继续上扬。\n//  通胀数据公布，市场并未恐慌  //\n不过值得注意的是，6月11日美国通胀数据超预期，但是并没有引发市场恐慌。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，涨幅均在1%之内；欧股涨跌不一。COMEX期金涨0.31%，报1901.3美元/盎司；国际原油期货收盘普涨，美油7月合约涨0.19%，报70.09美元/桶。伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜跌0.85%。\n市场波动率未上升的其中一个原因是隔夜欧央行鸽派的态度，市场或认为同样现象也会发生在美联储身上。\n欧洲央行(ECB)选择不暗示何时可能开始缩减其疫情时期的刺激计划，并预计在可预见的未来，通胀仍将低于目标水平。同时欧洲央行决定继续实施刺激计划，其超低利率也保持不变。\n//  任泽平：警惕美联储加息缩表风险  //\n尽管上周通胀数据公布后，市场并未出现恐慌，但是美国通胀持续走高，对新兴市场却构成实质威胁。\n标普全球评级新兴市场首席经济学家塔蒂亚娜·李森科表示，美国通胀和收益率上升会推高发展中国家的借贷成本，除此之外，更广泛的风险是，美国经济将领先于新兴经济体，这将导致资金流出新兴市场股票和债券，最终引发货币贬值。\n标普的数据显示，18个最大的发达经济体中有15个的再融资成本比平均借贷成本低1个百分点以上。其中大多数经济体支付的利息不到1%。\n东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平在6月11日发布的研报中呼吁，警惕美联储加息缩表引发的风险。\n他表示，如果按照市场预计，10月份前后，美国的疫苗接种可能能达到70%，到年底基本接种完毕，美联储未来的缩表和资本从新市场流出的风险值得警惕。\n他强调，现在全球资产价格估值都很高，中国已经货币政策正常化了，如果哪天美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球的资本市场产生压力。今年二三月份美元指数短暂走强，资金从新市场流出，土耳其市场直接就崩盘了。\n对于三季度的经济、政策和市场展望，他提醒投资者记住三点：\n第一点，一季度是经济高点，二三季度会边际放缓。\n第二点，大宗商品价格最猛烈的上涨的阶段可能结束了，高点临近了。\n第三点，市场对货币政策收紧的预期和焦虑会缓解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130356214,"gmtCreate":1621515127938,"gmtModify":1704358874764,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130356214","repostId":"2136317942","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194869875,"gmtCreate":1621354366597,"gmtModify":1704356367897,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194869875","repostId":"1187734006","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187734006","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Barrons巴伦","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1621339333,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187734006?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-18 20:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Haidilao fell into the deep red sea, and it could not be fished just by opening a shop","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187734006","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"对于曾经高成长的龙头，市场看重的是“增速的增速”。一旦增长的斜率变得缓和，基本的估值判断也将随之改变。\n\n2021年2月中旬至5月，海底捞股价腰斩，由大约85港元跌至44港元附近。直接诱因是业绩复苏不","content":"<p>For the once high-growth leader, the market values \"the growth rate of growth\". Once the slope of growth becomes moderate, the basic valuation judgment will also change. From mid-February to May 2021, Haidilao's stock price halved, from about 85 Hong Kong dollars to around 44 Hong Kong dollars. The direct incentive is that the performance recovery is less than expected, specifically, the decline in profits and turnover rates.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's research report published in May this year only gave Haidilao a rating of \"keeping pace with the market\" with a target price of HK $56; The report revealed that the overall table turnover rate of Haidilao restaurants in April was less than 3, which was lower than March and lower than market expectations. Goldman Sachs' report published earlier in March gave a rating of \"neutral\" with a target price of HK $57; The report said at the time that the slow recovery speed may pose a risk to Haidilao's earnings and valuation in the short term-the big bank rating is neither \"buy\" nor \"overweight\", and has always been regarded by many investors as similar \"sell\".</p><p>China's hot pot market has long been a crimson sea, and this matter is an \"elephant in the room\", but for a long time, investors have treated Haidilao differently. Based on its industry status and brand reputation, Haidilao's valuation level is higher than that of peer companies like Yum China all year round.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/439773619a33e88fa51fa3e0eea53057\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It was COVID-19 pandemic who interrupted the inertia of relevant cognition. In 2020, the number of Haidilao stores will grow against the trend, but the situation in the first quarter of 2021 shows that the marginal improvement that can be brought about by continuous store expansion is weakening.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be fine? The question should be divided into two parts: (1) When will Haidilao's operation return to its former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price be revived? They are actually not the same question, and the answers to the two will not come simultaneously.</p><p><b>1、</b><b>Turnover rate crisis? Actually, it's a passenger flow crisis</b></p><p>The most discussed key indicator of Haidilao in the market is the turnover rate.</p><p>There are only two ways to improve the turnover rate of restaurants: First, shorten the dining time of customers; Second, improve customers' willingness to wait. When eating hot pot, what you eat is time. Haidilao's focus on maintaining the turnover rate is obviously the second point.</p><p>As we all know, Haidilao has created a complete set of value-added services to appease waiting customers, and no one in the catering industry has matched it for many years. Then, the preliminary conclusion about the decline in Haidilao's turnover rate is probably: it's not that the customers who come are unwilling to wait, but that not so many customers come.</p><p>We can use the two data of \"total restaurant revenue\" and \"per capita consumption of customers\" in the company's financial report to simply calculate the number of customers dining in Haidilao.</p><p>In 2019 and 2020, the revenue of Haidilao restaurants in first-tier cities was 6.481625 billion yuan and 5.930587 billion yuan respectively, and the per capita consumption of customers in first-tier cities was 110.1 yuan and 116.2 yuan respectively. By dividing \"income\" by \"per capita consumption\", we can see that in 2019, the number of customers of Haidilao restaurants in first-tier cities was approximately 58.87 million, while the data in 2020 was 51.038 million, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 13%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74fd31e686e63d79461f14b948b0da26\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"856\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Operating income of Haidilao restaurants by geographical region (data table intercepted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf05bf9209e24adc7be659956a4e0758\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Key performance indicators of Haidilao restaurant (data table intercepted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p>By the end of 2020, the total number of restaurants operated by Haidilao was 1,298, a year-on-year increase of nearly 70% from 768 in 2019. According to the financial report, in the whole year of 2020, Haidilao restaurants served more than 250 million customers, a year-on-year increase of only about 2.5% from 244 million in 2019.</p><p>At the same time, the turnover rate of Haidilao's newly opened restaurants in 2020 is only 2.8, a decrease of more than 30% from 4.1 in 2019.</p><p>Morgan Stanley revealed in a recent report that in April 2021, the table turnover rate of Haidilao's restaurants was lower than 3, a month-on-month decrease from March, and only about 70% of the level of the same period in 2019.</p><p>For reference, although the company's store opening speed is basically in line with market estimates, and the revenue scale of low-tier cities has seen considerable year-on-year growth,<b>Investors have reason to suspect that the marginal improvement that increasing the number of new stores can bring to Haidilao is weakening</b>。</p><p>In April, the hot search topic on Weibo of \"17 yuan to eat Haidilao\" showed that Haidilao had not lost the attention and goodwill of the mainstream public. But here's the more practical problem: customers still like you, but they just don't eat you.</p><p>So, where do the customers go?</p><p><b>2、</b><b>Substitutes are diversified, and the hot pot track sea is too red</b></p><p>To discuss whether Haidilao's turnover rate and stock price can return to the upward track, we first need to update our understanding of the hot pot market.</p><p>According to the data of China Hotel Association and NCBD (Meal Collection), in 2019, the total revenue of China's hot pot market reached 960 billion yuan. In 2020, this figure is expected to fall back to the level of 2018, about 880 billion yuan.</p><p>Since 2018, many predictions have pointed out that hot pot will be a trillion-level market; In the venture capital world, this is regarded as one of the main bases for betting on this track; New entrepreneurs, traditional famous enterprises and entertainment stars are all opening hot pot restaurants...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08148ee5651669c03c60db5e730d3309\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But for specific companies in the secondary market, the significance of trillion-level scale is not as great as it seems. The reason is that,<b>The concentration of the hot pot market is actually very low</b>。 According to the data of China Business Industry Research Institute in 2020, the CR5 of China's hot pot market is only 5.5%. The demand for eating hot pot is divided into fragments. Besides the faucet, there are many participants-</p><p>Category and brand innovation continues. Xiaolongkan and Tan Yaxue challenged Haidilao in taste and experience; Xiabuxiabu seeks to increase the unit price per customer (whether successful or not); Lazy Bear Hot Pot received nearly 100 million yuan in Series A financing in February. Chaoshan beef pot, Yunnan-style hot pot, fish in sour soup, coconut chicken... have spread from their origin to the whole country for several years.</p><p>The hot pot base material and seasoning industry is heating up. The \"Bottom Material Storm: In-depth Report on Hot Pot Bottom Material Industry\" published by China Merchants Securities in May pointed out that hot pot brands entering the C-end and traditional condiment companies expanding their categories are making the industry increasingly competitive. The addiction to spicy food and the lazy economy have driven the accelerated growth of the industry on the family side. The listed companies involved in the report include Yihai International, Tianwei Food, Haitian Flavor Industry, etc.</p><p>The rise of hot pot ingredients supermarkets. Hema Fresh launches \"hot pot season\"; Daily Youxian, Dingdong Maicai and other e-commerce companies make efforts; Yasui Foods and others took the opportunity to increase the market share of quick-frozen ingredients or ready-made food.</p><p>Cross-border attempts occur frequently. Mengniu and Gome enter the game; BESTORE and three squirrels are making self-healthy pots; Even station B came to mix in. In March 2021, Bilibili opened an official experience store in Shanghai for its documentary \"Life is Boiling\".</p><p>COVID-19 pandemic has promoted the cultivation of the habit of eating hot pot at home, and even the trendy small household appliances with optimized design and function are fueling the flames.</p><p>Of course, Haidilao has participated in all these things and achieved visible growth, but these businesses account for a small proportion of its total revenue, which is not enough to make up for the decline in the core indicators of the company's overall business. Take food delivery as an example. In 2020, Haidilao's food delivery business revenue increased from 448 million yuan in 2019 to 717 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%; But in terms of revenue share, it only rose from 1.7% to 2.5%.</p><p>Here I would like to reiterate the previous point,<b>The color of the red sea of hot pot is so dark that even if Haidilao's strategy of continuing to open stores works, the marginal utility will hardly reach the level of the early years</b>。</p><p>For the once high-growth leader, what the market values is not the growth rate, but the \"growth rate of the growth rate\". Once the slope of growth becomes moderate, the basic valuation judgment will also change.</p><p>It's not that the items listed above can fundamentally destroy the in-store dinner hot pot market with more social functions and ritual sense-as mentioned earlier, they are inherently scattered, but that the diversification of substitutes is inhibiting the re-growth of industry leaders such as Haidilao.</p><p>Because the base is already very high. According to data from Meituan Dianping, as of 2020, hot pot accounts for more than 13% of China's dinner market, which is already the sub-category with the highest share. We cannot be too optimistic that the total demand of the market can still expand at a high speed, or that the proportion of hot pot categories can still increase significantly.</p><p>There is also a possibility that hidden competition comes from the industry next door.</p><p>In the years before the word \"online celebrity\" became rampant, Haidilao was once the leader of the online celebrity world. The business community is circulating \"You Can't Learn Haidilao\", and good friends are keen to experience responsiveness and meticulousness together. The service quality of Haidilao has almost become an urban legend in the 1910s.</p><p>Until now,<b>This generation of young people dedicated the matter of \"queuing\" to milk tea and other online celebrity stores</b>。 According to NCBD data, young women are still the main group of hot pot consumers so far; In 2020, women accounted for 57.1% of Chinese hot pot consumers; Among them, 26-30 years old accounted for 30.1%, and 18-25 years old accounted for 28.1%. Let's not speculate rigorously. In the actual consumption scene, there are many formats competing with hot pot restaurants for waiting customers, which are far better than ten years ago.</p><p>The consumer preference of waiting for Haidilao has faded. Value-added packages consisting of manicures and small snacks are no longer novelty. More importantly, as the ultimate service experience of core competitiveness, with the gradual desensitization of customers and the rise of thresholds, the magic is also decaying. So far, we haven't discussed the decline in customer satisfaction caused by menu price increases and other issues.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Will Haidilao still be fine?</b></p><p>In 2020, Haidilao's strategy is to pick up high-quality stores on dips, with a net increase of 530 stores throughout the year. Among them, there was a net increase of 65 in first-tier cities in mainland China, rising to 255, a year-on-year increase of 34%, and the growth rate slowed down; There was a net increase of 167 in second-tier cities, a year-on-year increase of approximately 50%; There was a net increase of 257 companies in third-tier cities, a year-on-year increase of approximately 132%. In 2021, as of the end of March, the company has signed 91 newly contracted stores. In addition to the stores that were signed last year but have not yet opened, it is expected that the number of stores opened in 2021 will still be more than 500.</p><p>For the whole year of 2020, Haidilao's revenue still increased by 7.8% year-on-year, reaching 28.6 billion yuan. The net profit fell 86% year-on-year to 310 million yuan. In terms of operating costs, the cost of raw materials and consumables increased by 9.1% year-on-year; Due to business expansion and higher salary levels, staff costs increased by 21.1% year-on-year. Depreciation and amortization increased by 60.4% year-on-year.</p><p>Haidilao's financial report also pointed out that the company's financial costs rose from RMB 236.8 million in 2019 to RMB 445.6 million in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 88.2%, mainly due to the increase in interest on lease liabilities and bank borrowing interest. Under the circumstances that operations were shut down and cash flow withered during the epidemic, Haidilao borrowed a large amount of money to support the expansion of stores against the trend. As of December 31, 2020, its bank borrowings were 3.9894 billion yuan.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be fine? This question has to be split in two. (1) When will Haidilao's operation return to its former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price be revived? They're not actually the same problem.</p><p>At the operational level, with the deepening of domestic vaccination progress, the performance of hot pot restaurants will further recover with the recovery of people's social habits. At the same time, Haidilao's growth in low-tier cities is worth looking forward to. The more common view in the market is that Haidilao is recovering, but the recovery speed is slow.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley's report, Haidilao's turnover rate in April this year was less than 3;<b>It should be pointed out that even this turnover rate, which is considered to be lower than expected, is still significantly higher than the industry average</b>。 According to the data of China Hotel Association and NCBD, in China's catering industry, the turnover rate of dinners is about 2.1, fast food snacks can reach more than 8, and the overall turnover rate of hot pot format is about 2.3. According to Xiabuxiabu's financial report, the turnover rate of Coucou Hotpot was 2.9 in 2019 and dropped to 2.5 in 2020. In other words, Haidilao restaurants had a table turnover rate of 4.8 in 2019, which is twice the industry average.</p><p>The question now is not that Haidilao is no longer excellent, but whether the expectation of how good it can be and whether it can continue to become better is reasonable.</p><p>Therefore, at the stock price level, investors should beware of the possibility of its valuation center moving downward.</p><p>In the restaurant chain format, the historical trajectory of Starbucks' valuation changes can provide some reference. In the period of cutting-edge brand rise and rapid expansion, its P/E has continued to be higher than 50 times or even more than 100 times. After the end of the high-speed growth period, its P/E adjusts and fluctuates in the range of 20 times or even below; After the company returned to a steady upward track, Starbucks' valuation has been rationally restored to a large extent, but it has not returned to the level of the high-speed growth period.</p><p>For investors who want to buy Haidilao at the bottom, it is necessary to cautiously wait for a more certain signal of performance recovery.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Haidilao fell into the deep red sea, and it could not be fished just by opening a shop</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHaidilao fell into the deep red sea, and it could not be fished just by opening a shop\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Barrons巴伦 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-18 20:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For the once high-growth leader, the market values \"the growth rate of growth\". Once the slope of growth becomes moderate, the basic valuation judgment will also change. From mid-February to May 2021, Haidilao's stock price halved, from about 85 Hong Kong dollars to around 44 Hong Kong dollars. The direct incentive is that the performance recovery is less than expected, specifically, the decline in profits and turnover rates.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's research report published in May this year only gave Haidilao a rating of \"keeping pace with the market\" with a target price of HK $56; The report revealed that the overall table turnover rate of Haidilao restaurants in April was less than 3, which was lower than March and lower than market expectations. Goldman Sachs' report published earlier in March gave a rating of \"neutral\" with a target price of HK $57; The report said at the time that the slow recovery speed may pose a risk to Haidilao's earnings and valuation in the short term-the big bank rating is neither \"buy\" nor \"overweight\", and has always been regarded by many investors as similar \"sell\".</p><p>China's hot pot market has long been a crimson sea, and this matter is an \"elephant in the room\", but for a long time, investors have treated Haidilao differently. Based on its industry status and brand reputation, Haidilao's valuation level is higher than that of peer companies like Yum China all year round.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/439773619a33e88fa51fa3e0eea53057\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It was COVID-19 pandemic who interrupted the inertia of relevant cognition. In 2020, the number of Haidilao stores will grow against the trend, but the situation in the first quarter of 2021 shows that the marginal improvement that can be brought about by continuous store expansion is weakening.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be fine? The question should be divided into two parts: (1) When will Haidilao's operation return to its former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price be revived? They are actually not the same question, and the answers to the two will not come simultaneously.</p><p><b>1、</b><b>Turnover rate crisis? Actually, it's a passenger flow crisis</b></p><p>The most discussed key indicator of Haidilao in the market is the turnover rate.</p><p>There are only two ways to improve the turnover rate of restaurants: First, shorten the dining time of customers; Second, improve customers' willingness to wait. When eating hot pot, what you eat is time. Haidilao's focus on maintaining the turnover rate is obviously the second point.</p><p>As we all know, Haidilao has created a complete set of value-added services to appease waiting customers, and no one in the catering industry has matched it for many years. Then, the preliminary conclusion about the decline in Haidilao's turnover rate is probably: it's not that the customers who come are unwilling to wait, but that not so many customers come.</p><p>We can use the two data of \"total restaurant revenue\" and \"per capita consumption of customers\" in the company's financial report to simply calculate the number of customers dining in Haidilao.</p><p>In 2019 and 2020, the revenue of Haidilao restaurants in first-tier cities was 6.481625 billion yuan and 5.930587 billion yuan respectively, and the per capita consumption of customers in first-tier cities was 110.1 yuan and 116.2 yuan respectively. By dividing \"income\" by \"per capita consumption\", we can see that in 2019, the number of customers of Haidilao restaurants in first-tier cities was approximately 58.87 million, while the data in 2020 was 51.038 million, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 13%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74fd31e686e63d79461f14b948b0da26\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"856\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Operating income of Haidilao restaurants by geographical region (data table intercepted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf05bf9209e24adc7be659956a4e0758\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Key performance indicators of Haidilao restaurant (data table intercepted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p>By the end of 2020, the total number of restaurants operated by Haidilao was 1,298, a year-on-year increase of nearly 70% from 768 in 2019. According to the financial report, in the whole year of 2020, Haidilao restaurants served more than 250 million customers, a year-on-year increase of only about 2.5% from 244 million in 2019.</p><p>At the same time, the turnover rate of Haidilao's newly opened restaurants in 2020 is only 2.8, a decrease of more than 30% from 4.1 in 2019.</p><p>Morgan Stanley revealed in a recent report that in April 2021, the table turnover rate of Haidilao's restaurants was lower than 3, a month-on-month decrease from March, and only about 70% of the level of the same period in 2019.</p><p>For reference, although the company's store opening speed is basically in line with market estimates, and the revenue scale of low-tier cities has seen considerable year-on-year growth,<b>Investors have reason to suspect that the marginal improvement that increasing the number of new stores can bring to Haidilao is weakening</b>。</p><p>In April, the hot search topic on Weibo of \"17 yuan to eat Haidilao\" showed that Haidilao had not lost the attention and goodwill of the mainstream public. But here's the more practical problem: customers still like you, but they just don't eat you.</p><p>So, where do the customers go?</p><p><b>2、</b><b>Substitutes are diversified, and the hot pot track sea is too red</b></p><p>To discuss whether Haidilao's turnover rate and stock price can return to the upward track, we first need to update our understanding of the hot pot market.</p><p>According to the data of China Hotel Association and NCBD (Meal Collection), in 2019, the total revenue of China's hot pot market reached 960 billion yuan. In 2020, this figure is expected to fall back to the level of 2018, about 880 billion yuan.</p><p>Since 2018, many predictions have pointed out that hot pot will be a trillion-level market; In the venture capital world, this is regarded as one of the main bases for betting on this track; New entrepreneurs, traditional famous enterprises and entertainment stars are all opening hot pot restaurants...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08148ee5651669c03c60db5e730d3309\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But for specific companies in the secondary market, the significance of trillion-level scale is not as great as it seems. The reason is that,<b>The concentration of the hot pot market is actually very low</b>。 According to the data of China Business Industry Research Institute in 2020, the CR5 of China's hot pot market is only 5.5%. The demand for eating hot pot is divided into fragments. Besides the faucet, there are many participants-</p><p>Category and brand innovation continues. Xiaolongkan and Tan Yaxue challenged Haidilao in taste and experience; Xiabuxiabu seeks to increase the unit price per customer (whether successful or not); Lazy Bear Hot Pot received nearly 100 million yuan in Series A financing in February. Chaoshan beef pot, Yunnan-style hot pot, fish in sour soup, coconut chicken... have spread from their origin to the whole country for several years.</p><p>The hot pot base material and seasoning industry is heating up. The \"Bottom Material Storm: In-depth Report on Hot Pot Bottom Material Industry\" published by China Merchants Securities in May pointed out that hot pot brands entering the C-end and traditional condiment companies expanding their categories are making the industry increasingly competitive. The addiction to spicy food and the lazy economy have driven the accelerated growth of the industry on the family side. The listed companies involved in the report include Yihai International, Tianwei Food, Haitian Flavor Industry, etc.</p><p>The rise of hot pot ingredients supermarkets. Hema Fresh launches \"hot pot season\"; Daily Youxian, Dingdong Maicai and other e-commerce companies make efforts; Yasui Foods and others took the opportunity to increase the market share of quick-frozen ingredients or ready-made food.</p><p>Cross-border attempts occur frequently. Mengniu and Gome enter the game; BESTORE and three squirrels are making self-healthy pots; Even station B came to mix in. In March 2021, Bilibili opened an official experience store in Shanghai for its documentary \"Life is Boiling\".</p><p>COVID-19 pandemic has promoted the cultivation of the habit of eating hot pot at home, and even the trendy small household appliances with optimized design and function are fueling the flames.</p><p>Of course, Haidilao has participated in all these things and achieved visible growth, but these businesses account for a small proportion of its total revenue, which is not enough to make up for the decline in the core indicators of the company's overall business. Take food delivery as an example. In 2020, Haidilao's food delivery business revenue increased from 448 million yuan in 2019 to 717 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%; But in terms of revenue share, it only rose from 1.7% to 2.5%.</p><p>Here I would like to reiterate the previous point,<b>The color of the red sea of hot pot is so dark that even if Haidilao's strategy of continuing to open stores works, the marginal utility will hardly reach the level of the early years</b>。</p><p>For the once high-growth leader, what the market values is not the growth rate, but the \"growth rate of the growth rate\". Once the slope of growth becomes moderate, the basic valuation judgment will also change.</p><p>It's not that the items listed above can fundamentally destroy the in-store dinner hot pot market with more social functions and ritual sense-as mentioned earlier, they are inherently scattered, but that the diversification of substitutes is inhibiting the re-growth of industry leaders such as Haidilao.</p><p>Because the base is already very high. According to data from Meituan Dianping, as of 2020, hot pot accounts for more than 13% of China's dinner market, which is already the sub-category with the highest share. We cannot be too optimistic that the total demand of the market can still expand at a high speed, or that the proportion of hot pot categories can still increase significantly.</p><p>There is also a possibility that hidden competition comes from the industry next door.</p><p>In the years before the word \"online celebrity\" became rampant, Haidilao was once the leader of the online celebrity world. The business community is circulating \"You Can't Learn Haidilao\", and good friends are keen to experience responsiveness and meticulousness together. The service quality of Haidilao has almost become an urban legend in the 1910s.</p><p>Until now,<b>This generation of young people dedicated the matter of \"queuing\" to milk tea and other online celebrity stores</b>。 According to NCBD data, young women are still the main group of hot pot consumers so far; In 2020, women accounted for 57.1% of Chinese hot pot consumers; Among them, 26-30 years old accounted for 30.1%, and 18-25 years old accounted for 28.1%. Let's not speculate rigorously. In the actual consumption scene, there are many formats competing with hot pot restaurants for waiting customers, which are far better than ten years ago.</p><p>The consumer preference of waiting for Haidilao has faded. Value-added packages consisting of manicures and small snacks are no longer novelty. More importantly, as the ultimate service experience of core competitiveness, with the gradual desensitization of customers and the rise of thresholds, the magic is also decaying. So far, we haven't discussed the decline in customer satisfaction caused by menu price increases and other issues.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Will Haidilao still be fine?</b></p><p>In 2020, Haidilao's strategy is to pick up high-quality stores on dips, with a net increase of 530 stores throughout the year. Among them, there was a net increase of 65 in first-tier cities in mainland China, rising to 255, a year-on-year increase of 34%, and the growth rate slowed down; There was a net increase of 167 in second-tier cities, a year-on-year increase of approximately 50%; There was a net increase of 257 companies in third-tier cities, a year-on-year increase of approximately 132%. In 2021, as of the end of March, the company has signed 91 newly contracted stores. In addition to the stores that were signed last year but have not yet opened, it is expected that the number of stores opened in 2021 will still be more than 500.</p><p>For the whole year of 2020, Haidilao's revenue still increased by 7.8% year-on-year, reaching 28.6 billion yuan. The net profit fell 86% year-on-year to 310 million yuan. In terms of operating costs, the cost of raw materials and consumables increased by 9.1% year-on-year; Due to business expansion and higher salary levels, staff costs increased by 21.1% year-on-year. Depreciation and amortization increased by 60.4% year-on-year.</p><p>Haidilao's financial report also pointed out that the company's financial costs rose from RMB 236.8 million in 2019 to RMB 445.6 million in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 88.2%, mainly due to the increase in interest on lease liabilities and bank borrowing interest. Under the circumstances that operations were shut down and cash flow withered during the epidemic, Haidilao borrowed a large amount of money to support the expansion of stores against the trend. As of December 31, 2020, its bank borrowings were 3.9894 billion yuan.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be fine? This question has to be split in two. (1) When will Haidilao's operation return to its former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price be revived? They're not actually the same problem.</p><p>At the operational level, with the deepening of domestic vaccination progress, the performance of hot pot restaurants will further recover with the recovery of people's social habits. At the same time, Haidilao's growth in low-tier cities is worth looking forward to. The more common view in the market is that Haidilao is recovering, but the recovery speed is slow.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley's report, Haidilao's turnover rate in April this year was less than 3;<b>It should be pointed out that even this turnover rate, which is considered to be lower than expected, is still significantly higher than the industry average</b>。 According to the data of China Hotel Association and NCBD, in China's catering industry, the turnover rate of dinners is about 2.1, fast food snacks can reach more than 8, and the overall turnover rate of hot pot format is about 2.3. According to Xiabuxiabu's financial report, the turnover rate of Coucou Hotpot was 2.9 in 2019 and dropped to 2.5 in 2020. In other words, Haidilao restaurants had a table turnover rate of 4.8 in 2019, which is twice the industry average.</p><p>The question now is not that Haidilao is no longer excellent, but whether the expectation of how good it can be and whether it can continue to become better is reasonable.</p><p>Therefore, at the stock price level, investors should beware of the possibility of its valuation center moving downward.</p><p>In the restaurant chain format, the historical trajectory of Starbucks' valuation changes can provide some reference. In the period of cutting-edge brand rise and rapid expansion, its P/E has continued to be higher than 50 times or even more than 100 times. After the end of the high-speed growth period, its P/E adjusts and fluctuates in the range of 20 times or even below; After the company returned to a steady upward track, Starbucks' valuation has been rationally restored to a large extent, but it has not returned to the level of the high-speed growth period.</p><p>For investors who want to buy Haidilao at the bottom, it is necessary to cautiously wait for a more certain signal of performance recovery.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f2c25e060d113f3768c45cafc16292","relate_stocks":{"06862":"海底捞"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187734006","content_text":"对于曾经高成长的龙头，市场看重的是“增速的增速”。一旦增长的斜率变得缓和，基本的估值判断也将随之改变。\n\n2021年2月中旬至5月，海底捞股价腰斩，由大约85港元跌至44港元附近。直接诱因是业绩复苏不及预期，具体而言是利润和翻台率下滑。\n摩根士丹利于今年5月发表的研究报告仅给予海底捞“与大市同步”评级，目标价56港元；该报告透露，海底捞餐厅4月的整体翻台率小于3，低于3月，也低于市场预期。高盛更早于3月发表的报告给出的评级是“中性”，目标价57港元；报告当时称，翻台恢复速度缓慢，短期内可能对海底捞的收益和估值构成风险——大行评级既非“买入”，也非“增持”，向来被很多投资者视同为近似“卖出”。\n中国的火锅市场早已是深红色的海，这件事是“房间里的大象”，但在相当长的时间里，投资者对海底捞是区别对待的。基于行业地位和品牌美誉，海底捞的估值水平常年高于百胜中国这样的同业公司。\n\n是新冠疫情打断了相关认知的惯性。2020年，海底捞的门店数量逆势增长，但2021年一季度的情况显示，不断拓店所能带来的边际改善正在减弱。\n海底捞还会好吗？提问还要一分为二：（1）海底捞的经营何时回到昔日水平？（2）海底捞的股价能否重振？它们其实并不是同一个问题，两者的答案也不会同步到来。\n1、翻台率危机？其实是客流量危机\n海底捞被市场讨论最多的关键指标是翻台率。\n餐馆提升翻台率的方法无非两点：一，缩短顾客用餐时间；二，提升顾客等位意愿。吃火锅，吃的就是时间，海底捞维护翻台率的重心显然在于第二点。\n众所周知，海底捞开创出一整套安抚等位顾客的增值服务，餐饮界多年来无人能出其右。那么，关于海底捞翻台率下滑的初步结论恐怕是：不是来了的顾客不愿意等，而是没有那么多顾客到来。\n我们可以使用公司财报中的“餐厅总收入”和“顾客人均消费”这两项数据，来简单计算一下海底捞的顾客就餐人次。\n2019年、2020年，海底捞餐厅在一线城市的收入分别是64.81625亿元、59.30587亿元，一线城市的顾客人均消费分别为110.1元、116.2元。以“收入”除以“人均消费”可知，2019年，海底捞餐厅在一线城市的顾客人次大约是5887万人，而2020年的数据是5103.8万人，同比减少了大约13%。\n\n根据地理区域划分的海底捞餐厅经营收入（数据表格截取自公司财报）\n\n海底捞餐厅关键表现指标（数据表格截取自公司财报）\n至2020年末，海底捞经营餐厅总数为1298家，较2019年的768家同比增加接近70%。而据财报，2020年全年，海底捞餐厅服务顾客超2.5亿人次，较2019年的2.44亿人次同比增长仅约2.5%。\n同时，海底捞2020年新开餐厅的翻台率仅为2.8，较2019年的4.1下降了超过30%。\n而摩根士丹利在近期报告中透露，2021年4月，海底捞旗下餐厅翻台率低于3，较3月环比下跌，仅为2019年同期水平的约70%。\n参照来看，虽然该公司的开店速度基本符合市场预估，且低线城市的收入规模有可观的同比增长，但是，投资者有理由怀疑，不断增加新店数量能为海底捞带来的边际改善正在减弱。\n4月，“17元吃海底捞”的微博热搜话题表明，海底捞并没丧失主流大众的关注和好感。但更实际的问题是：顾客还喜欢你，他们只是不去吃你了。\n那么，顾客去了哪里？\n2、替代品多样化，火锅赛道海太红了\n要讨论海底捞的翻台率和股价能否重回上升轨道，首先需要更新对火锅市场的认知。\n中国饭店协会和NCBD（餐宝典）的数据显示，2019年，中国火锅市场的总收入规模达到了9600亿元，2020年，该数字预计已回落至2018年的水平，大约8800亿元。\n自2018年以来，早有多方预测指出，火锅将是一个万亿级别的市场；在创投界，这被当作是下注该赛道的主要依据之一；创业新锐、传统名企、娱乐明星，都在开火锅店……\n\n但对于二级市场的具体公司来说，万亿级规模的意义，并不像看上去那么大。原因在于，火锅市场的集中度其实非常低。中商产业研究院2020年的数据显示，中国火锅市场的CR5仅为5.5%。吃火锅的需求被碎片化地瓜分，龙头之外，参与者众——\n品类与品牌创新不断。小龙坎和谭鸭血在口味和体验上挑战了海底捞；呷哺呷哺谋求提升客单价（且不论成功与否）；懒熊火锅在2月份获得了近亿元A轮融资。潮汕牛肉锅、滇式火锅、酸汤鱼、椰子鸡……数年来各自从原产地向全国传播。\n火锅底料和调料行业升温。招商证券5月发表的《底料风暴：火锅底料产业深度报告》指出，切入C端的火锅品牌和扩张品类的传统调味品企业正使该行业竞争日益激烈。而辣味成瘾性和懒人经济，驱动了该行业在家庭端的增长加速。报告中涉及的上市公司包括颐海国际、天味食品、海天味业等。\n火锅食材超市兴起。盒马鲜生推出“火锅季”；每日优鲜、叮咚买菜等电商发力；安井食品等趁机提升速冻食材或预制菜的市占率。\n跨界尝试频现。蒙牛、国美入局；良品铺子和三只松鼠在做自嗨锅；连B站都来掺合，2021年3月，哔哩哔哩在上海为其纪录片《生活如沸》开了一家官方体验店。\n新冠疫情促进了宅家吃火锅习惯的培养，连设计和功能优化的新潮小家电也在推波助澜。\n凡此种种，海底捞当然多有参与，也取得了可见的增长，但这些业务在其总收入中占比很小，不足以弥补公司整体业务核心指标的下滑。以外卖为例，2020年，海底捞外卖业务收入从2019年的4.48亿元上升到7.17亿元，同比增长了60%；但在收入占比方面，仅从1.7%上升至2.5%。\n这里要重申前文的观点，火锅红海的颜色如此之深，海底捞继续开店的策略即使奏效，边际效用也难以达到早年的水平。\n对于曾经高成长的龙头，市场看重的不是增速，而是“增速的增速”。一旦增长的斜率变得缓和，基本的估值判断也将随之改变。\n并不是说，以上列举的事项，能从根本上破坏更具社交功能和仪式感的到店正餐火锅市场——如前所述，它们本来就很分散，而是说，替代品的多样化在抑制海底捞等行业龙头的再成长。\n因为基数已经很高。来自美团点评的数据显示，截至2020年，在中国的正餐市场中，火锅的占比超过13%，已经是其中份额最高的细分品类。我们不能过于乐观地认为，市场的总需求还能高速扩张，或是火锅品类的占比仍能大幅提升。\n还有一种离得稍远的可能性是，隐性竞争还来自隔壁行业。\n在“网红”这个词还没泛滥的岁月里，海底捞曾经就是网红界的魁首。商业界在传阅《海底捞你学不会》，好朋友们热衷于结伴体验有求必应和无微不至。海底捞的服务品质，几乎成为本世纪10年代的都市传说。\n到如今，这届年轻人把“排队”这件事献给了奶茶和其他网红店。NCBD的数据显示，年轻女性迄今仍是火锅消费的主要人群；2020年，中国火锅消费者的女性占比是57.1%；其中26—30岁占比30.1%，18—25岁占比28.1%。不严谨地推测一下，在实际消费场景中，跟火锅店争夺等位顾客的业态之多，远胜于十年前。\n等位就等海底捞的消费者偏好有所淡化。由美甲和小零食组成的增值套餐不再新奇。更关键的是，作为核心竞争力的极致服务体验，随着顾客的逐渐脱敏和阈值抬升，魔力也在衰变。至此，我们还未讨论菜单涨价等问题造成的顾客满意度下降。\n3、海底捞还会好吗\n2020年，海底捞的策略是逢低拾取优质店铺，全年净增530家门店。其中，在中国大陆一线城市净增65家，上升至255家，同比增34%，增速放缓；二线城市净增167家，同比增约50%；三线城市净增257家，同比增约132%。2021年，截至3月末，该公司新签约门店91家，加上去年已签约、未开业的店面，预计2021年全年的开店数量仍将在500家以上。\n2020年全年，海底捞营收仍有7.8%的同比增长，达到286亿元。而净利润同比下降86%，为3.1亿元。经营成本方面，原材料及易耗品成本同比上升了9.1%；由于业务扩张和薪资水平提高，员工成本同比上升了21.1%。折旧及摊销同比上升了60.4%。\n海底捞的财报亦指出，公司财务成本从2019年的人民币2.368亿元上升到2020年的人民币4.456亿元，同比增长了88.2%，主要由租赁负债利息和银行借款利息增加所致。在疫情中经营停摆、现金流枯萎的情况下，海底捞借入了大额款项来支撑逆势扩店。截至2020年12月31日，其银行借款为39.894亿元。\n海底捞还会好吗？这个提问还要一分为二。（1）海底捞的经营何时回到昔日水平？（2）海底捞的股价能否重振？它们其实并不是同一个问题。\n在经营层面，随着国内疫苗接种进度的深入，火锅店的业绩会随人们的社交习惯恢复进一步复苏。同时，海底捞在低线城市的增长是值得期待的。市场较普遍的观点是，海底捞在恢复，但恢复速度较缓。\n据摩根士丹利的报告，海底捞今年4月的翻台率小于3；需要指出的是，即使是这个被认为不及预期的翻台率，依然要显著高于行业均值。中国饭店协会和NCBD的数据显示，在中国餐饮业中，正餐的翻台率在2.1左右，快餐小吃可以达到8以上，而火锅业态整体的翻台率约为2.3。依据呷哺呷哺的财报，凑凑火锅的翻台率2019年为2.9，2020年降至2.5。换言之，海底捞餐厅在2019年时高达4.8的翻台率，是行业均值的两倍。\n现在的问题，不是海底捞不再优秀，而是关于它能优秀到何种程度、能不断变得更为优秀的预期是否合理。\n所以在股价层面，投资者应该提防其估值中枢下移的可能性。\n在餐饮连锁业态中，星巴克的估值变化历史轨迹可以提供某种参考。在身为新锐、品牌崛起、高速扩张的时期，其市盈率曾持续高于50倍、甚至百倍以上。而高速成长期结束后，其市盈率在20倍乃至以下区间调整、震荡；待公司重回平稳上升的轨道后，星巴克的估值得到很大程度的理性修复，但并未回到高速成长期的水平。\n对想要抄底海底捞的投资者而言，谨慎等待更具确定性的业绩复苏信号，是很有必要的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06862":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194860244,"gmtCreate":1621354245688,"gmtModify":1704356365440,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194860244","repostId":"1128296319","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198460945,"gmtCreate":1620981249687,"gmtModify":1704351484330,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198460945","repostId":"1100297334","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100297334","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620960560,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100297334?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-14 10:49","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Report card of real estate tycoons: Money is hard to earn, debt is hard to repay","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100297334","media":"凤凰WEEKLY财经","summary":"2021年刚刚过去的四个月里，碧桂园、万科、恒大、保利、融创这五个大房企，销售规模超过了1万亿。\n对于全年的目标，龙头房企不再像几年前一样高调渲染，毕竟在房地产行业的关键转折点，安全行驶大于天。\n恒大","content":"<p>In the past four months of 2021,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">Country Garden</a>, Vanke, Evergrande, Poly, Sunac, the five major real estate companies, with sales exceeding 1 trillion</b>。</p><p>For the full-year goals, leading real estate companies are no longer as high-profile as they were a few years ago. After all<b>At a critical turning point in the real estate industry, safe driving is greater than the sky</b>。</p><p>On the 20th anniversary of Evergrande, Xu Jiayin set a goal at a huge celebration. In 2020, Evergrande's total assets will exceed 3 trillion yuan, and its annual real estate sales will exceed 600 billion yuan.</p><p>It is said that there were 1,800 guests sitting in the audience at that time, including Hui Jiayin's \"noble people\" and the four major families in Hong Kong<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>Group Chairman Zheng Jiachun, Yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01105\">Sing Tao</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWS\">News Corp</a>Chairman Ho Chu Kwok, Yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Jack Ma, as well as Yang Guoqiang, chairman of Country Garden Group, and other political circles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">The financial world</a>, a group of big names in the real estate industry. Even the literary evening that night was broadcast live by many TV stations.</p><p>It was 2016, and Xu Jiayin's face was red. Evergrande defeats Vanke and sits on<b>The world's number one real estate company</b>The matter of returning to A through a backdoor deep house was also put on the agenda at the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bac52f2402d1960987bd2ae44736268\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2016 may be the best time for real estate in recent years.</p><p>That year, many benchmark real estate companies spent a record high on land, and the sales of the top 100 real estate companies increased by 53% year-on-year. Later, on a public occasion,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01918\">Sunac China</a>Sun Hongbin, chairman of the board of directors, said that when land is cheap, money is expensive, and when money is expensive, land is cheap. Only in 2016, both money and land are cheap. At this time, we must seize the opportunity</b>。</p><p>Many real estate companies seized this opportunity, and it was in the two or three years after that that dark horses tasted \"<b>To death the bold, to death the timid</b>\"The taste of happiness, the sound of the charge horn is so loud that you can't hear clearly\" House lives, not speculation \".</p><p>They didn't realize that those capital levers that jumped higher and higher would become a mountain in 2020, squeezing those huge bubbles.</p><p>In the second half of last year, the regulatory authorities successively pulled out<b>Three Swords of \"Three Red Lines, Centralized Loan Management and Double Concentration of Land\"</b>, hanging over the heads of all real estate companies. They don't have a choice, either grit their teeth and flip over or get out.</p><p><b>Evergrande, which still had more than 100 billion cash in hand in 2016, did not have total assets exceeding 3 trillion in 2020. In September, it was also caught in rumors of a break in the capital chain, and the return to A-shares was also blown up.</b></p><p>A group of large-scale real estate companies are struggling with financial difficulties, while another group is flooded with debt.</p><p>Vanke used \"2020 is the end of an era and the beginning of an era\" as the opening chapter in its annual report.<b>Vanke Group Chairman of the Board of Directors Yu Liang Yu Liang</b>Said at the results conference, \"<b>Opportunities are no longer at your fingertips</b>”。</p><p>The special year 2020 proves the firmness of \"housing is for living, not for speculation\". For developers, the road is not as clear as before. How to get through this period of industry adjustment has become a judgment question related to survival, black and white. But, after crossing the hill, what is it?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66f9e0d5a7ded9b9433251f10c9383f9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Money, the hardest to earn</b></p><p>After August 26th, 2016, the phrase \"Xiamen is crazy\" was copied and pasted on many occasions.</p><p>There is a \"Price Forecast Chart of Xiamen Property Market in the Next Year after the 8.26 Auction\" circulating on the Internet, and the house price in some areas after one year jumped directly from more than 10,000 to 40,000.</p><p>That year's Hurun Global House Price Increase List,<b>Xiamen's house price increased by 45.5%, ranking second in the world, followed by Hefei, with an increase of 48.4%.</b>。 The super price increase expectation has given real estate companies the courage to do whatever it takes. The name of the land king includes Vanke, Poly, Sunac, Rongqiao, Tahoe, Rongxin, Yuzhou and other real estate companies of different sizes.</p><p>The truth is,<b>When these land king projects are listed one after another in 2019-2020, most of them will lose money</b>。 8.26 Rongqiao Group, one of the land kings, won a plot of land in Xiang'an District, Xiamen for a total price of 4.218 billion yuan. The floor price was 38,345 yuan/㎡, with a premium rate of 140%. When the market opened in March 2019, the average price was only sold to 37,500 yuan/㎡.</p><p>This situation not only happens in Xiamen, but also Hefei and Nanjing are the hardest hit areas. As Sun Hongbin said, when money is cheap and land is cheap, everyone wants to seize the opportunity.</p><p><b>At that time, no one predicted that the next real estate regulation would last for so long and be so strong.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0205eaf7eaae908fc8dfb84c7c20fb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The original plan to have your cake and eat it too has turned into the lesser of two evils,<b>Only by sacrificing profits to ensure sales can we obtain valuable funds and \"survive\". \"Live\"</b>, this is the keyword of Yu Liang, chairman of Vanke's board of directors, in the autumn of 2018, and it has become the real state of the real estate industry after 2019.</p><p>According to statistics from the Middle Index Research Institute,<b>Annual Report 2020</b>, the sales scale of the top 100 companies exceeded 10 trillion yuan, and the total sales and sales area increased by 12.8% and 11.6% respectively year-on-year. Judging from the data,<b>The revenue and net profit of the top 100 companies maintained growth, but the average net profit margin and return on net assets (ROE) decreased by 0.7 and 1.0 percentage points year-on-year respectively.</b></p><p>Ping An Securities' report confirms this trend.<b>In 2020, the revenue of A-share listed real estate companies increased by 10.9% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 15.6% year-on-year.</b>，<b>The growth rate decreased by 9.1 and 27.2 percentage points respectively compared with 2019</b>。 As high-priced land from 2017 to 2018 is gradually carried forward, listed real estate companies in 2020<b>The overall gross profit margin fell by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year</b>。</p><p>Even for leading real estate companies that are more resistant to risks, various profit indicators will inevitably decline.</p><p>wind data shows that,<b>From 2018 to 2020, the gross profit margins of Country Garden, Evergrande, Vanke, and Sunac have all declined year by year</b>Except for Evergrande, the other three companies were clearly reflected last year.</p><p><b>It's almost the same trend on return on equity (ROE)</b>, especially Evergrande, whose return on net assets fell to single digits last year, only 5.52%. This indicator was 12.4% and 30.18% in 2019 and 2018 respectively.</p><p>The sales in exchange for squeezing profits are also much worse than the growth rate of previous years.</p><p>Although Country Garden, Evergrande, and Vanke have all exceeded 700 billion in full scale, and Sunac and Poly have all exceeded 500 billion, the story behind it is,<b>Evergrande failed to achieve the 800 billion internal sales target, Sunac was more than 20 billion short of the 600 billion target, and it took Poly more than a year to cross 500 billion</b>。</p><p>Of course, this is an achievement achieved under multiple pressures such as the superimposed regulation of the epidemic. For real estate companies, it is not easy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac93aac14ca536de99c6e7a7bd4ddf3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Debt, the hardest to repay</b></p><p>If we have to find a key turning point for the collective turn of the real estate market, it will be the new financing regulations of \"three red lines\" circulated online in August 2020.</p><p>In fact, as early as 2018, many leading real estate companies had already realized the changes in the market direction, and stepped on the brakes one after another, stating that they would reduce their debts, no longer pursue scale, and want high-quality development.</p><p>However, no matter how sufficient the psychological construction is, when the ultimatum comes, you will be caught off guard.</p><p>In August last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the central bank held a symposium in Beijing with 12 key real estate companies including Country Garden, Evergrande, Vanke, and Sunac. At this meeting, regulators held<b>Three red lines</b>Take it out.</p><p>After excluding advance receipts, the asset-liability ratio is greater than 70%, the net debt ratio is greater than 100%, and the cash-to-short-term debt ratio is less than 1 times. Every time one of these three indicators is stepped on, the ceiling of the growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities will be 5% lower. If all three indicators are stepped on, the interest-bearing liabilities will not increase. Even if one is not stepped on, it will increase by up to 15% every year. There is only more than 4 months left for real estate companies, and it will be implemented on January 1, 2021.</p><p>For real estate in a typical high-debt industry, it is<b>A bolt from the blue</b>Not excessive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/008c088e739868e777c107f9573db850\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At that time, Guosheng Securities made calculations based on the \"three red lines\" standard. Based on the data at the end of 2019, among the top 50 real estate companies in terms of sales, 11 did not exceed the warning line, and 15 companies exceeded 1 warning line. There are 8 companies with more than 2 warning lines, and 15 companies with more than 3 warning lines.</p><p>The 12 companies that participated in the conference together, Evergrande, Sunac, Greenland,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02772\">Zhongliang Holdings</a>All three red lines are stepped on.</p><p>After the annual reports were released one after another, these three indicators of many real estate companies have improved, from accelerating sales to acquiring less land, coupled with bond issuance, private placement, and various financial methods.<b>In the past five months, in order to reduce debt, real estate companies have been struggling</b>。</p><p>But not all pitfalls have ways to make up for them.</p><p>On the last day of April,<b>Many media backstages have received a message from 1 million Tahoe owners, the building they bought is unfinished, and there is no progress</b>However, in Tahoe's annual report, the actual completion progress reached 86.57%. \"I just ask you to go to the field for interviews and investigations before writing and publishing the manuscript to understand the truth of the matter.\"</p><p>According to Tahoe's annual report, operating income in 2020 is 3.615 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84.7%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was-4.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1171.83%;</p><p>The top 20 real estate companies with annual sales exceeding 100 billion have fallen into a serious debt crisis, with high leverage and high premium<b>\"Land King Harvester\" finally harvested itself</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8430ba75e6e897473815a4e97992cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Sichuan-based 100 billion real estate enterprises<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600466\">Blu-ray development</a></b>Liu Xu (a pseudonym), a staff member in a certain area, has been listening to colleagues exchanging the latest progress of their \"acquisition\" every day at work recently, and they discuss various possibilities of a new owner. \"<b>Whether it is Sunac or OCT, which one is better than now</b>”。</p><p>On April 7th, Liu Xu was even a little disappointed when he heard the top management say that \"the controlling stake of the company will not be sold\". Should he look for other companies? He considered his way out.</p><p>It is also a partner who rushes forward blindfolded. After the wind direction of the real estate changes, it shows its original shape as the tide fades. After selling its biomedical and property sectors one after another, Blu-ray is trying to make the ending less sad.</p><p><b>A lever can carry a boat or overturn it</b>Many real estate companies only really understood the truth last year.</p><p><b>The road ahead is the most difficult to judge</b></p><p>At the 2018 interim results conference, Sun Hongbin said, \"There is no need to diversify if the main business is done well. Only companies with problems can diversify.\"</p><p>Although Big Brother Vanke didn't say so \"online celebrity\", he expressed a similar meaning almost at the same time, with \"survival\" as the ultimate goal, and the specific business operations were \"convergence\" and \"focus\".</p><p>That year, Country Garden began to enter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>In the industry, Evergrande is preparing to \"build cars\", and then has invested in countless small goals.</p><p>but<b>Two years later, everyone is on the same path</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5912022b0543f14fcee208b525f1e9a\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Sun Hongbin</b>He was busy talking with government officials in many places about cultural tourism, medical care and health care, and also developed the conference and exhibition sector through large-scale acquisitions. The properties that were said to be not listed also landed on the Hong Kong stock market last year with the tide.<b>In the end, he lived the way he had disdained</b>。</p><p><b>Vanke also began to disclose diversified transcripts in financial reports</b>, the development speed is visible, but compared with the main real estate business, which accounts for more than 95%, it is really insignificant.</p><p>Not only Vanke, but also real estate companies that are looking for the \"second curve\" of growth when they predict changes in the real estate atmosphere. At present, this is the case.</p><p><b>Country Garden's robots are getting quieter and quieter</b>, just occasionally publish some data on how many patents, how many doctors, and some small videos and photos of robots walking around in their own \"experimental field\".</p><p><b>Evergrande's cars are booming, and its stock price continues to hit new highs</b>, before a car has been built, it is planned to achieve production and sales of 1 million vehicles within 4 years-2025 and 5 million vehicles in 2035. The goal is the world's largest and most powerful new energy vehicle group.</p><p>The point is,<b>Xu Jiayin, who once said that \"the real estate industry will always be a sunrise industry for Evergrande\", announced in 2021 that he would become a world-class technology company</b>。</p><p>Whether they want it or not, there are many difficulties or not, and the road ahead is bumpy or not, leading real estate companies have stepped on the road of diversification. This may be interpreted from another angle. The road of real estate will not be more simple than those.</p><p>Many people working in real estate companies sigh first when talking about the future, and their words reveal infinite pessimism. \"<b>The general trend is gone</b>\", more than one person used the word.</p><p>For a person who is climbing a hill with difficulty, it is difficult to predict whether it will be a higher mountain or a wider road after crossing the hill.</p><p>Only outsiders can see it.</p><p>In March,<b>Ren Zeping, a well-known economist who was hired by Xu Jiayin for 15 million a year, has returned to the capital market</b>, his identity changed from chief economist of Evergrande Group and president of Evergrande Economic Research Institute to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Soochow Securities</a>Chief economist, the annual salary is much less.</p><p>“<b>Real estate depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. \"</b>This \"law\" was put forward by him.</p><p>At the first macro strategy report meeting in April, he said,<b>Real estate is the hardest bubble of China's economy</b>。</p><p>\"The fundamental problem of China's real estate is the mismatch between people and land and the past excessive currency issuance.\"</p><p>And he believes that there is still a solution to all this. \"We still have a time window of the last ten years.\"</p>","source":"lsy1598401734913","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Report card of real estate tycoons: Money is hard to earn, debt is hard to repay</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReport card of real estate tycoons: Money is hard to earn, debt is hard to repay\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">凤凰WEEKLY财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 10:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the past four months of 2021,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">Country Garden</a>, Vanke, Evergrande, Poly, Sunac, the five major real estate companies, with sales exceeding 1 trillion</b>。</p><p>For the full-year goals, leading real estate companies are no longer as high-profile as they were a few years ago. After all<b>At a critical turning point in the real estate industry, safe driving is greater than the sky</b>。</p><p>On the 20th anniversary of Evergrande, Xu Jiayin set a goal at a huge celebration. In 2020, Evergrande's total assets will exceed 3 trillion yuan, and its annual real estate sales will exceed 600 billion yuan.</p><p>It is said that there were 1,800 guests sitting in the audience at that time, including Hui Jiayin's \"noble people\" and the four major families in Hong Kong<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>Group Chairman Zheng Jiachun, Yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01105\">Sing Tao</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWS\">News Corp</a>Chairman Ho Chu Kwok, Yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Jack Ma, as well as Yang Guoqiang, chairman of Country Garden Group, and other political circles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">The financial world</a>, a group of big names in the real estate industry. Even the literary evening that night was broadcast live by many TV stations.</p><p>It was 2016, and Xu Jiayin's face was red. Evergrande defeats Vanke and sits on<b>The world's number one real estate company</b>The matter of returning to A through a backdoor deep house was also put on the agenda at the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bac52f2402d1960987bd2ae44736268\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2016 may be the best time for real estate in recent years.</p><p>That year, many benchmark real estate companies spent a record high on land, and the sales of the top 100 real estate companies increased by 53% year-on-year. Later, on a public occasion,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01918\">Sunac China</a>Sun Hongbin, chairman of the board of directors, said that when land is cheap, money is expensive, and when money is expensive, land is cheap. Only in 2016, both money and land are cheap. At this time, we must seize the opportunity</b>。</p><p>Many real estate companies seized this opportunity, and it was in the two or three years after that that dark horses tasted \"<b>To death the bold, to death the timid</b>\"The taste of happiness, the sound of the charge horn is so loud that you can't hear clearly\" House lives, not speculation \".</p><p>They didn't realize that those capital levers that jumped higher and higher would become a mountain in 2020, squeezing those huge bubbles.</p><p>In the second half of last year, the regulatory authorities successively pulled out<b>Three Swords of \"Three Red Lines, Centralized Loan Management and Double Concentration of Land\"</b>, hanging over the heads of all real estate companies. They don't have a choice, either grit their teeth and flip over or get out.</p><p><b>Evergrande, which still had more than 100 billion cash in hand in 2016, did not have total assets exceeding 3 trillion in 2020. In September, it was also caught in rumors of a break in the capital chain, and the return to A-shares was also blown up.</b></p><p>A group of large-scale real estate companies are struggling with financial difficulties, while another group is flooded with debt.</p><p>Vanke used \"2020 is the end of an era and the beginning of an era\" as the opening chapter in its annual report.<b>Vanke Group Chairman of the Board of Directors Yu Liang Yu Liang</b>Said at the results conference, \"<b>Opportunities are no longer at your fingertips</b>”。</p><p>The special year 2020 proves the firmness of \"housing is for living, not for speculation\". For developers, the road is not as clear as before. How to get through this period of industry adjustment has become a judgment question related to survival, black and white. But, after crossing the hill, what is it?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66f9e0d5a7ded9b9433251f10c9383f9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Money, the hardest to earn</b></p><p>After August 26th, 2016, the phrase \"Xiamen is crazy\" was copied and pasted on many occasions.</p><p>There is a \"Price Forecast Chart of Xiamen Property Market in the Next Year after the 8.26 Auction\" circulating on the Internet, and the house price in some areas after one year jumped directly from more than 10,000 to 40,000.</p><p>That year's Hurun Global House Price Increase List,<b>Xiamen's house price increased by 45.5%, ranking second in the world, followed by Hefei, with an increase of 48.4%.</b>。 The super price increase expectation has given real estate companies the courage to do whatever it takes. The name of the land king includes Vanke, Poly, Sunac, Rongqiao, Tahoe, Rongxin, Yuzhou and other real estate companies of different sizes.</p><p>The truth is,<b>When these land king projects are listed one after another in 2019-2020, most of them will lose money</b>。 8.26 Rongqiao Group, one of the land kings, won a plot of land in Xiang'an District, Xiamen for a total price of 4.218 billion yuan. The floor price was 38,345 yuan/㎡, with a premium rate of 140%. When the market opened in March 2019, the average price was only sold to 37,500 yuan/㎡.</p><p>This situation not only happens in Xiamen, but also Hefei and Nanjing are the hardest hit areas. As Sun Hongbin said, when money is cheap and land is cheap, everyone wants to seize the opportunity.</p><p><b>At that time, no one predicted that the next real estate regulation would last for so long and be so strong.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0205eaf7eaae908fc8dfb84c7c20fb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The original plan to have your cake and eat it too has turned into the lesser of two evils,<b>Only by sacrificing profits to ensure sales can we obtain valuable funds and \"survive\". \"Live\"</b>, this is the keyword of Yu Liang, chairman of Vanke's board of directors, in the autumn of 2018, and it has become the real state of the real estate industry after 2019.</p><p>According to statistics from the Middle Index Research Institute,<b>Annual Report 2020</b>, the sales scale of the top 100 companies exceeded 10 trillion yuan, and the total sales and sales area increased by 12.8% and 11.6% respectively year-on-year. Judging from the data,<b>The revenue and net profit of the top 100 companies maintained growth, but the average net profit margin and return on net assets (ROE) decreased by 0.7 and 1.0 percentage points year-on-year respectively.</b></p><p>Ping An Securities' report confirms this trend.<b>In 2020, the revenue of A-share listed real estate companies increased by 10.9% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 15.6% year-on-year.</b>，<b>The growth rate decreased by 9.1 and 27.2 percentage points respectively compared with 2019</b>。 As high-priced land from 2017 to 2018 is gradually carried forward, listed real estate companies in 2020<b>The overall gross profit margin fell by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year</b>。</p><p>Even for leading real estate companies that are more resistant to risks, various profit indicators will inevitably decline.</p><p>wind data shows that,<b>From 2018 to 2020, the gross profit margins of Country Garden, Evergrande, Vanke, and Sunac have all declined year by year</b>Except for Evergrande, the other three companies were clearly reflected last year.</p><p><b>It's almost the same trend on return on equity (ROE)</b>, especially Evergrande, whose return on net assets fell to single digits last year, only 5.52%. This indicator was 12.4% and 30.18% in 2019 and 2018 respectively.</p><p>The sales in exchange for squeezing profits are also much worse than the growth rate of previous years.</p><p>Although Country Garden, Evergrande, and Vanke have all exceeded 700 billion in full scale, and Sunac and Poly have all exceeded 500 billion, the story behind it is,<b>Evergrande failed to achieve the 800 billion internal sales target, Sunac was more than 20 billion short of the 600 billion target, and it took Poly more than a year to cross 500 billion</b>。</p><p>Of course, this is an achievement achieved under multiple pressures such as the superimposed regulation of the epidemic. For real estate companies, it is not easy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac93aac14ca536de99c6e7a7bd4ddf3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Debt, the hardest to repay</b></p><p>If we have to find a key turning point for the collective turn of the real estate market, it will be the new financing regulations of \"three red lines\" circulated online in August 2020.</p><p>In fact, as early as 2018, many leading real estate companies had already realized the changes in the market direction, and stepped on the brakes one after another, stating that they would reduce their debts, no longer pursue scale, and want high-quality development.</p><p>However, no matter how sufficient the psychological construction is, when the ultimatum comes, you will be caught off guard.</p><p>In August last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the central bank held a symposium in Beijing with 12 key real estate companies including Country Garden, Evergrande, Vanke, and Sunac. At this meeting, regulators held<b>Three red lines</b>Take it out.</p><p>After excluding advance receipts, the asset-liability ratio is greater than 70%, the net debt ratio is greater than 100%, and the cash-to-short-term debt ratio is less than 1 times. Every time one of these three indicators is stepped on, the ceiling of the growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities will be 5% lower. If all three indicators are stepped on, the interest-bearing liabilities will not increase. Even if one is not stepped on, it will increase by up to 15% every year. There is only more than 4 months left for real estate companies, and it will be implemented on January 1, 2021.</p><p>For real estate in a typical high-debt industry, it is<b>A bolt from the blue</b>Not excessive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/008c088e739868e777c107f9573db850\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At that time, Guosheng Securities made calculations based on the \"three red lines\" standard. Based on the data at the end of 2019, among the top 50 real estate companies in terms of sales, 11 did not exceed the warning line, and 15 companies exceeded 1 warning line. There are 8 companies with more than 2 warning lines, and 15 companies with more than 3 warning lines.</p><p>The 12 companies that participated in the conference together, Evergrande, Sunac, Greenland,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02772\">Zhongliang Holdings</a>All three red lines are stepped on.</p><p>After the annual reports were released one after another, these three indicators of many real estate companies have improved, from accelerating sales to acquiring less land, coupled with bond issuance, private placement, and various financial methods.<b>In the past five months, in order to reduce debt, real estate companies have been struggling</b>。</p><p>But not all pitfalls have ways to make up for them.</p><p>On the last day of April,<b>Many media backstages have received a message from 1 million Tahoe owners, the building they bought is unfinished, and there is no progress</b>However, in Tahoe's annual report, the actual completion progress reached 86.57%. \"I just ask you to go to the field for interviews and investigations before writing and publishing the manuscript to understand the truth of the matter.\"</p><p>According to Tahoe's annual report, operating income in 2020 is 3.615 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84.7%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was-4.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1171.83%;</p><p>The top 20 real estate companies with annual sales exceeding 100 billion have fallen into a serious debt crisis, with high leverage and high premium<b>\"Land King Harvester\" finally harvested itself</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8430ba75e6e897473815a4e97992cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Sichuan-based 100 billion real estate enterprises<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600466\">Blu-ray development</a></b>Liu Xu (a pseudonym), a staff member in a certain area, has been listening to colleagues exchanging the latest progress of their \"acquisition\" every day at work recently, and they discuss various possibilities of a new owner. \"<b>Whether it is Sunac or OCT, which one is better than now</b>”。</p><p>On April 7th, Liu Xu was even a little disappointed when he heard the top management say that \"the controlling stake of the company will not be sold\". Should he look for other companies? He considered his way out.</p><p>It is also a partner who rushes forward blindfolded. After the wind direction of the real estate changes, it shows its original shape as the tide fades. After selling its biomedical and property sectors one after another, Blu-ray is trying to make the ending less sad.</p><p><b>A lever can carry a boat or overturn it</b>Many real estate companies only really understood the truth last year.</p><p><b>The road ahead is the most difficult to judge</b></p><p>At the 2018 interim results conference, Sun Hongbin said, \"There is no need to diversify if the main business is done well. Only companies with problems can diversify.\"</p><p>Although Big Brother Vanke didn't say so \"online celebrity\", he expressed a similar meaning almost at the same time, with \"survival\" as the ultimate goal, and the specific business operations were \"convergence\" and \"focus\".</p><p>That year, Country Garden began to enter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>In the industry, Evergrande is preparing to \"build cars\", and then has invested in countless small goals.</p><p>but<b>Two years later, everyone is on the same path</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5912022b0543f14fcee208b525f1e9a\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Sun Hongbin</b>He was busy talking with government officials in many places about cultural tourism, medical care and health care, and also developed the conference and exhibition sector through large-scale acquisitions. The properties that were said to be not listed also landed on the Hong Kong stock market last year with the tide.<b>In the end, he lived the way he had disdained</b>。</p><p><b>Vanke also began to disclose diversified transcripts in financial reports</b>, the development speed is visible, but compared with the main real estate business, which accounts for more than 95%, it is really insignificant.</p><p>Not only Vanke, but also real estate companies that are looking for the \"second curve\" of growth when they predict changes in the real estate atmosphere. At present, this is the case.</p><p><b>Country Garden's robots are getting quieter and quieter</b>, just occasionally publish some data on how many patents, how many doctors, and some small videos and photos of robots walking around in their own \"experimental field\".</p><p><b>Evergrande's cars are booming, and its stock price continues to hit new highs</b>, before a car has been built, it is planned to achieve production and sales of 1 million vehicles within 4 years-2025 and 5 million vehicles in 2035. The goal is the world's largest and most powerful new energy vehicle group.</p><p>The point is,<b>Xu Jiayin, who once said that \"the real estate industry will always be a sunrise industry for Evergrande\", announced in 2021 that he would become a world-class technology company</b>。</p><p>Whether they want it or not, there are many difficulties or not, and the road ahead is bumpy or not, leading real estate companies have stepped on the road of diversification. This may be interpreted from another angle. The road of real estate will not be more simple than those.</p><p>Many people working in real estate companies sigh first when talking about the future, and their words reveal infinite pessimism. \"<b>The general trend is gone</b>\", more than one person used the word.</p><p>For a person who is climbing a hill with difficulty, it is difficult to predict whether it will be a higher mountain or a wider road after crossing the hill.</p><p>Only outsiders can see it.</p><p>In March,<b>Ren Zeping, a well-known economist who was hired by Xu Jiayin for 15 million a year, has returned to the capital market</b>, his identity changed from chief economist of Evergrande Group and president of Evergrande Economic Research Institute to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Soochow Securities</a>Chief economist, the annual salary is much less.</p><p>“<b>Real estate depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. \"</b>This \"law\" was put forward by him.</p><p>At the first macro strategy report meeting in April, he said,<b>Real estate is the hardest bubble of China's economy</b>。</p><p>\"The fundamental problem of China's real estate is the mismatch between people and land and the past excessive currency issuance.\"</p><p>And he believes that there is still a solution to all this. \"We still have a time window of the last ten years.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/x8YRg4e1Qo0C2q6RAi_2SA\">凤凰WEEKLY财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00b7d70423af402de8fcef957dcb2900","relate_stocks":{"600048":"保利发展","03333":"中国恒大","02007":"碧桂园","000002":"万科A","01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/x8YRg4e1Qo0C2q6RAi_2SA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100297334","content_text":"2021年刚刚过去的四个月里，碧桂园、万科、恒大、保利、融创这五个大房企，销售规模超过了1万亿。\n对于全年的目标，龙头房企不再像几年前一样高调渲染，毕竟在房地产行业的关键转折点，安全行驶大于天。\n恒大20周年的时候，许家印在声势浩大的庆典上立下目标，2020年恒大总资产超3万亿，房地产年销售规模超6000亿。\n据说当时台下坐着1800位嘉宾，有许家印的“贵人”、香港四大家族新世界集团主席郑家纯，有星岛新闻集团主席何柱国，有阿里巴巴马云，还有碧桂园集团主席杨国强等等政界、金融界、地产界的一众大佬。就连那晚的文艺晚会，很多卫视都直播了。\n那是2016年，许家印满面红光。恒大打下万科，坐上世界第一房企的宝座，借壳深深房回A的事也在年底提上了日程。\n\n2016年或许是这几年房地产最好的时候。\n那一年，不少标杆房企砸在土地上的钱创出历年新高，百强房企的销售额同比增长了53%。后来的一次公开场合，融创中国董事会主席孙宏斌说，地便宜的时候钱贵，钱贵的时候地便宜，只有2016年，钱和地都便宜，这个时候要抓住机会。\n这个机会很多房企抓住了，正是在那之后的两三年时间，黑马们尝到了“撑死胆大的，饿死胆小的”的幸福滋味，冲锋号的声音大到听不清“房住不炒”。\n他们并没有意识到，那些越跳越高的资金杠杆，会在2020年变成一座山，把那些巨大的泡沫挤破。\n去年下半年，监管部门一连拔出了“三道红线、贷款集中管理、土地双集中”三把利剑，悬在所有房企的头顶。他们没有选择，要么咬牙翻过去，要么出局。\n2016年手里还有超过千亿现金的恒大，在2020年总资产并没有超过3万亿，还在9月陷入资金链断裂传闻，回A股的事也吹了。\n一批规模房企在资金困境中挣扎，另外一批被债务淹没。\n万科在年报中用了“2020年是一个时代的落幕，也是一个时代的开启”作为开篇，万科集团董事会主席郁亮郁亮在业绩发布会上说，“机会不再是唾手可得”。\n特殊的2020年证明了“房住不炒”的坚定。对于开发商来说，路途不似以往明朗。如何渡过这一段行业调整期，成为一道关乎存亡的判断题，非黑即白。只是，越过山丘之后，又是什么呢？\n\n钱，最难赚\n2016年8月26日过后，“厦门疯了”这句话，被复制粘贴在很多场合。\n网上流传了一幅“8.26土拍后，厦门楼市未来1年价格预测图”，有区域一年后的房价，直接从1万多跳到4万。\n那一年的胡润全球房价涨幅榜，厦门房价涨幅45.5%排在全球第二，第一是合肥，涨幅48.4%。超强的涨价预期给了房企们不惜代价的勇气，地王的名字里包含了万科、保利、融创、融侨、泰禾、融信、禹洲等规模不等的房企。\n事实是，等到2019-2020年这些地王项目陆续上市的时候，绝大部分都是赔钱的。8.26地王之一的融侨集团以总价42.18亿元拿下的厦门翔安区一地块，楼面价38345元/㎡，溢价率140%，在2019年3月开盘时均价只卖到37500元/㎡。\n这种情况不只发生在厦门，合肥、南京也是重灾区。就像孙宏斌说的，钱也便宜、地也便宜的时候，大家都想抓住机会。\n当时并没有人预估到接下来开始的地产调控会持续这么久，力度这么大。\n\n原本鱼和熊掌都想兼得的打算，变成了两害相权取其轻，牺牲利润保证销量，才能获得宝贵的资金，才能“活下去”。“活下去”，这是万科董事局主席郁亮在2018年秋天的主题词，2019年以后变成房地产行业的真实状态。\n中指研究院统计，2020年，百强企业销售规模超10万亿，销售总额、销售面积同比分别增长了12.8%和11.6%。从数据来看，百强企业营收与净利润保持增长，但净利润率、净资产收益率（ROE）均值分别同比降低了0.7、1.0个百分点。\n平安证券的报告印证着这样的趋势，2020年A股上市房企营收同比增长10.9%，归母净利润同比下降15.6%，增速比2019年分别下降9.1个、27.2个百分点。随着2017-2018年高价地陆续结转，2020年上市房企整体毛利率同比降了4.6个百分点。\n即便是更能抵抗风险的龙头房企，各项盈利指标也不可避免地走向滑坡。\nwind数据显示，2018-2020年碧桂园、恒大、万科、融创毛利率都逐年下滑，除了恒大，其他三家都在去年有明显体现。\n净资产收益率（ROE）方面几乎是同样的趋势，尤其是恒大，去年净资产收益率跌至个位数，仅5.52%，这一指标在2019年、2018年分别是12.4%和30.18%。\n挤压利润换来的销售额，跟前几年的增速也差了不少。\n虽然碧桂园、恒大、万科全口径都超过了7000亿，融创和保利都超过了5000亿，但背后的故事是，恒大没完成8000亿内部销售目标，融创距离6000亿目标差了200多亿，保利跨过5000亿多花了一年。\n当然，这是在疫情叠加调控等多重压力下实现的成绩，对于房企们来说，已经很不容易。\n\n债，最难还\n如果非要给房地产市场集体转向找一个关键的转折，那便是2020年8月网传的“三道红线”融资新规。\n其实早在2018年，多家龙头房企就已经意识到市场风向的变化，纷纷踩下刹车，表态要把负债降下来，不再追求规模，要高质量发展。\n但是再充分的心理建设，在最后通牒到来的时候，也会措手不及。\n去年8月，住建部和央行在北京跟碧桂园、恒大、万科、融创等12家重点房企开了一次座谈会，这次会上，监管层把三道红线拿了出来。\n剔除预收款后的资产负债率大于70%、净负债率大于100%、现金短债比小于1倍，这三项指标，每踩一条，有息负债增速的天花板就低5%，三条全踩，有息负债就不能增加，即使是一条不踩，每年也最多增15%。留给房企的时间只有4个多月，2021年1月1日就推行。\n这对于典型的高负债行业房地产来讲，说是晴天霹雳并不过分。\n\n当时国盛证券按“三道红线”标准做过测算，以2019年末数据为基准，销售排名前50位的房地产企业中，均未超过警戒线的有11家，超过1条警戒线的有15家，超过2条警戒线的有8家，超过3条警戒线的有15家。\n一起参会的那12家企业，恒大、融创、绿地、中梁控股都是三道红线全踩。\n年报陆续发布后，多家房企的这三项指标有所改善，从加快销售，到少拿地，加上发债、定向增发，还有各种财务手法，过去的5个月内，为了降负债，房企们伤透了脑筋。\n但并不是所有的坑，都有办法弥补。\n4月的最后一天，不少媒体的后台都收到了一份100万泰禾业主的留言，他们买的楼烂尾了，并没有任何进展，但在泰禾的年报中现实完工进度却达86.57%，“只求您写稿、发稿前，去实地采访调查，了解事情真相。”\n根据泰禾的年报，2020年营业收入是36.15亿元，同比下降84.7%；归属上市公司股东的净利润为-49.99亿元，同比下降1171.83%；\n曾经年销售超千亿的20强房企，陷入严重的债务危机，高杠杆、高溢价的“地王收割机”，最终收割了自己。\n\n川系千亿房企蓝光发展某区域的工作人员刘旭（化名），最近每天上班都在听同事们交换着他们“被收购”的最新进展，他们讨论着新东家的各种可能，“不管是融创还是华侨城，哪个都比现在好”。\n4月7日，听到高层说“不会出让公司控股权”，刘旭甚至有点失望，要不要找找其他公司呢？他考虑着自己的出路。\n同样是蒙眼往前冲的伙伴，在地产的风向变换后，随着潮水的褪去现出原形。在陆续把旗下的生物医药和物业板块卖掉后，蓝光正在试着让结局不那么悲伤。\n杠杆能载舟亦能覆舟的道理，很多房企在去年才真正明白。\n前路，最难判断\n2018年中期业绩发布会上，孙宏斌说了一句，“主业做得好没有必要多元化，有问题的公司才做多元化呢。”\n老大哥万科虽然说得没有这么“网红”，但几乎在同一时段，表达了类似的意思，以“活下去”为最终目标，具体的业务操作是“收敛”和“聚焦”。\n那一年，碧桂园开始进军机器人行业，恒大准备“造车”，然后分别把数不清的小目标投了进去。\n但是两年后，大家走上了同一条道路。\n\n孙宏斌忙于跟多个地方的政府官员谈文旅、医疗康养，还通过大笔收购发展出会议会展的板块，说过不上市的物业，也在去年随着大潮登陆港股，最终，他活成了自己当初不屑的样子。\n万科也开始在财报中披露多元化的成绩单，发展速度可见，但跟占据超过95%的房地产主业相比，实在微不足道。\n不止是万科，在预感到房地产氛围变化的时候寻找增长“第二曲线”的房企们，目前来看都是如此。\n碧桂园的机器人动静越来越小，只是偶尔发布一些多少项专利、多少名博士的数据，和一些机器人在自己的”试验田“里走来走去的小视频、照片。\n恒大的汽车倒是风生水起，股价不断创新高，一辆车还没有造出来的情况下，准备在4年内——2025年实现产销100万辆，2035年产销500万辆，目标是世界规模最大、实力最强的新能源汽车集团。\n重点是，曾经说“房地产业对恒大来说永远是朝阳产业”的许家印，在2021年宣布要做世界一流科技企业。\n无论他们想或不想，困难多不多，前路坎坷不坎坷，多元化这条路，龙头房企们都踩了下去，这或许能从另一个角度解读，地产这条路，不会比那些简单。\n不少在房企工作的人，在谈起未来的时候，都先叹一口气，言语中透露出无限悲观，“大势已去”，不止一个人用了这个词。\n对于一个正在艰难爬坡的人，很难预料越过山丘以后，是更高的山，还是更广阔的路。\n只有局外人看得见。\n今年3月，曾经让许家印每年花1500万挖来的知名经济学家任泽平，重新回到资本市场，身份从恒大集团首席经济学家兼恒大经济研究院院长，变成东吴证券首席经济学家，年薪少了一大截。\n“房地产长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融”这条“定律”，就是他提出来的。\n在4月份首场宏观策略报告会上，他说，房地产是中国经济最坚硬的泡沫。\n“中国房地产的根本问题就是人地错配和货币过去的一度超发。”\n而他认为，这一切还有解，“我们还有最后十年的时间窗口。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600048":0.9,"02007":0.9,"01918":0.9,"03333":0.9,"000002":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":129253312,"gmtCreate":1624374757336,"gmtModify":1703834917593,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avat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n comment, thank you very much&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment, thank you very much&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment, thank you very much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129253312","repostId":"1142464181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142464181","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624372497,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142464181?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 22:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The daily fresh pricing range is 13-16 US dollars/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142464181","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"北京时间6月22日晚间消息，每日优鲜更新F-1招股书，计划公开发行2100万股美国存托股票（ADS），定价区间为13-16美元/ADS。\n现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金Davis等将持续加码，购买至","content":"<p>News on the evening of June 22, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>Update the F-1 prospectus and plan to publicly issue 21 million American depositary shares (ADS) with a pricing range of US $13-16/ADS.</p><p>Existing shareholders CICC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>, U.S. long-term fund Davis, etc. will continue to increase their weight and buy ADSs worth up to 90 million US dollars.</p><p>According to the prospectus, the net revenue of Daily Youxian from 2018 to 2020 is approximately 3.5467 billion yuan, 6.0014 billion yuan, and 6.1304 billion yuan respectively. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, Daily Youxian's net revenue was 1.6898 billion yuan, and for the three months ended March 31, 2021, the net revenue was 1.5302 billion yuan.</p><p>The prospectus also shows that Daily Youxian's gross profit was 304 million yuan in 2018, an increase of 71.3% to 520.9 million yuan in 2019, and an increase of 128.5% in 2020 to 1.1904 billion yuan. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, the gross profit of Daily Youxian was 510.8 million yuan, compared with 189 million yuan in the same period in 2021.</p><p>From 2018 to 2020, the daily net losses of Youxian were 2.2316 billion yuan, 2.9094 billion yuan, and 1.6492 billion yuan respectively. For the quarter ended March 31, 2020, the daily net loss of Youxian was 194.7 million yuan, and the loss in the same period in 2021 was 610.3 million yuan. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, the adjusted net losses (non-GAAP standards) of Daily Youxian were 2.2159 billion yuan, 2.777 billion yuan, and 1.5897 billion yuan, respectively. For the quarter ended March 31, 2020, the adjusted net loss of Daily Youxian was 175.8 million yuan, and the loss in the same period in 2021 was 598.4 million yuan.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The daily fresh pricing range is 13-16 US dollars/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe daily fresh pricing range is 13-16 US dollars/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 22:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>News on the evening of June 22, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>Update the F-1 prospectus and plan to publicly issue 21 million American depositary shares (ADS) with a pricing range of US $13-16/ADS.</p><p>Existing shareholders CICC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>, U.S. long-term fund Davis, etc. will continue to increase their weight and buy ADSs worth up to 90 million US dollars.</p><p>According to the prospectus, the net revenue of Daily Youxian from 2018 to 2020 is approximately 3.5467 billion yuan, 6.0014 billion yuan, and 6.1304 billion yuan respectively. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, Daily Youxian's net revenue was 1.6898 billion yuan, and for the three months ended March 31, 2021, the net revenue was 1.5302 billion yuan.</p><p>The prospectus also shows that Daily Youxian's gross profit was 304 million yuan in 2018, an increase of 71.3% to 520.9 million yuan in 2019, and an increase of 128.5% in 2020 to 1.1904 billion yuan. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, the gross profit of Daily Youxian was 510.8 million yuan, compared with 189 million yuan in the same period in 2021.</p><p>From 2018 to 2020, the daily net losses of Youxian were 2.2316 billion yuan, 2.9094 billion yuan, and 1.6492 billion yuan respectively. For the quarter ended March 31, 2020, the daily net loss of Youxian was 194.7 million yuan, and the loss in the same period in 2021 was 610.3 million yuan. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, the adjusted net losses (non-GAAP standards) of Daily Youxian were 2.2159 billion yuan, 2.777 billion yuan, and 1.5897 billion yuan, respectively. For the quarter ended March 31, 2020, the adjusted net loss of Daily Youxian was 175.8 million yuan, and the loss in the same period in 2021 was 598.4 million yuan.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc6d948584260429c150c1dd44a898f","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142464181","content_text":"北京时间6月22日晚间消息，每日优鲜更新F-1招股书，计划公开发行2100万股美国存托股票（ADS），定价区间为13-16美元/ADS。\n现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金Davis等将持续加码，购买至多价值9000万美元的ADS。\n招股书显示，每日优鲜2018年-2020年的净营收分别约为35.467亿元， 60.014亿元，61.304亿元。截止2020年3月31日的三个月，每日优鲜的净营收为16.898亿元，截止2021年3月31日的三个月，净营收为15.302亿元。\n招股书还显示，每日优鲜的毛利润在2018年为3.04亿元，2019年增长71.3%了至5.209亿元，2020年再增长128.5%，达到11.904亿元。截止2020年3月31日的三个月，每日优鲜的毛利为5.108亿元，2021年的同期为1.89亿元。\n2018年至2020年，每日优鲜净亏损分别为22.316亿元，29.094亿元、16.492亿元。截止2020年3月31日的一个季度，每日优鲜净亏损1.947亿元，2021年同期亏损6.103亿元。2018年、2019年和2020年，每日优鲜的调整后净亏损（非GAAP标准）分别为22.159亿元、27.77亿元、15.897亿元。截止2020年3月31日的一个季度，每日优鲜调整后净亏损为1.758亿元，2021年同期亏损5.984亿元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184070530,"gmtCreate":1623679294220,"gmtModify":1704208499930,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","text":"Like & comment, thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184070530","repostId":"1123321973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123321973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623649058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123321973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123321973","media":"Wind万得","summary":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策","content":"<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>//The super central bank is coming//</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.</p><p>Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.</p><p>The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//</b></p><p>If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,<b>CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)</p><p>The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.</p><p>The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to suggest when it may begin scaling back its pandemic-era stimulus package and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency devaluation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.</p><p>He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.</b></p><p><b>Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 13:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>//The super central bank is coming//</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.</p><p>Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.</p><p>The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//</b></p><p>If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,<b>CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)</p><p>The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.</p><p>The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to suggest when it may begin scaling back its pandemic-era stimulus package and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency devaluation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.</p><p>He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.</b></p><p><b>Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c642e2602b0226eff0cc78e1452765cc","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123321973","content_text":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球资本市场产生压力。\n// 超级央行周到来  //\n本周，美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议。\n其中，最受关注的还是美联储。\n北京时间6月17日2点，美联储将公布利率决议；半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。\n具体日程参见下方图表：\n\nWind梳理发现，从目前市场预期来看，美联储、日本央行、印尼央行、瑞士央行、挪威央行、土耳其央行和埃及央行等大概率会选择维持现有基准利率水平不变。\n而乌克兰央行可能会选择加息50个基点，巴西央行则可能会加息75个基点。挪威央行可能会暗示在今年9月的时候宣布加息。\n//  通胀飙升，美联储要变脸？  //\n美联储一旦宣布减少每月债券购买规模（QE），将被认为是全球收紧货币政策的关键信号。\nWind查询多方资料发现，目前主流看法是，美联储最快有望在今年8月末之前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放该信号，而更为普遍看法是在今年9月份的会议上宣布。但不人们似乎不太相信美联储认为“通胀只是暂时的”说法。\n美联储在4月份的政策声明中写道：“Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”（通胀已经走高，主要反映了暂时性因素）。因此，对于6月的利率决议来说，美联储是否会删除这一表述，预计将会是引发全市场波动的“震中”。\n目前市场正在等待美联储的明确信号，美元波动率已跌至一年多来的最低水平。\n//  美国CPI创近13年新高  //\n如果美联储改变鸽派立场，通胀将是决定性因素。\n美国劳工部当地时间10日公布的数据显示，5月CPI同比升5%，创2008年8月来新高，预期升4.7%，前值升4.2%，创下近13年来最大同比增幅。\n\n（图片来自Wind金融终端EDB模块）\n与去年疫情期间的数据相比，年度通胀指标得到了提振，当时由于对许多商品和服务的需求暴跌，价格大幅下跌。市场目前预计这种所谓的基数效应将大幅推高5月和6月的通胀数据，直至秋季。\n据美国商务部近期公布的多项数据显示，截止4月，全美范围内的房价正在大幅飙升。\n标普席勒房价指数3月较2020年同期上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最大涨幅，包括纽约、旧金山在内的美国90%的城市房价指数均创下新高。\n6月月初公布的美联储“褐皮书”显示美国通胀压力进一步增加。报告显示，4月初至5月底，美国各辖区经济活动以更快速度温和扩张。各辖区普遍预计，未来几个月成本和销售价格可能继续上扬。\n//  通胀数据公布，市场并未恐慌  //\n不过值得注意的是，6月11日美国通胀数据超预期，但是并没有引发市场恐慌。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，涨幅均在1%之内；欧股涨跌不一。COMEX期金涨0.31%，报1901.3美元/盎司；国际原油期货收盘普涨，美油7月合约涨0.19%，报70.09美元/桶。伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜跌0.85%。\n市场波动率未上升的其中一个原因是隔夜欧央行鸽派的态度，市场或认为同样现象也会发生在美联储身上。\n欧洲央行(ECB)选择不暗示何时可能开始缩减其疫情时期的刺激计划，并预计在可预见的未来，通胀仍将低于目标水平。同时欧洲央行决定继续实施刺激计划，其超低利率也保持不变。\n//  任泽平：警惕美联储加息缩表风险  //\n尽管上周通胀数据公布后，市场并未出现恐慌，但是美国通胀持续走高，对新兴市场却构成实质威胁。\n标普全球评级新兴市场首席经济学家塔蒂亚娜·李森科表示，美国通胀和收益率上升会推高发展中国家的借贷成本，除此之外，更广泛的风险是，美国经济将领先于新兴经济体，这将导致资金流出新兴市场股票和债券，最终引发货币贬值。\n标普的数据显示，18个最大的发达经济体中有15个的再融资成本比平均借贷成本低1个百分点以上。其中大多数经济体支付的利息不到1%。\n东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平在6月11日发布的研报中呼吁，警惕美联储加息缩表引发的风险。\n他表示，如果按照市场预计，10月份前后，美国的疫苗接种可能能达到70%，到年底基本接种完毕，美联储未来的缩表和资本从新市场流出的风险值得警惕。\n他强调，现在全球资产价格估值都很高，中国已经货币政策正常化了，如果哪天美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球的资本市场产生压力。今年二三月份美元指数短暂走强，资金从新市场流出，土耳其市场直接就崩盘了。\n对于三季度的经济、政策和市场展望，他提醒投资者记住三点：\n第一点，一季度是经济高点，二三季度会边际放缓。\n第二点，大宗商品价格最猛烈的上涨的阶段可能结束了，高点临近了。\n第三点，市场对货币政策收紧的预期和焦虑会缓解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194869875,"gmtCreate":1621354366597,"gmtModify":1704356367897,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194869875","repostId":"1187734006","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187734006","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Barrons巴伦","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1621339333,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187734006?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-18 20:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Haidilao fell into the deep red sea, and it could not be fished just by opening a shop","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187734006","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"对于曾经高成长的龙头，市场看重的是“增速的增速”。一旦增长的斜率变得缓和，基本的估值判断也将随之改变。\n\n2021年2月中旬至5月，海底捞股价腰斩，由大约85港元跌至44港元附近。直接诱因是业绩复苏不","content":"<p>For the once high-growth leader, the market values \"the growth rate of growth\". Once the slope of growth becomes moderate, the basic valuation judgment will also change. From mid-February to May 2021, Haidilao's stock price halved, from about 85 Hong Kong dollars to around 44 Hong Kong dollars. The direct incentive is that the performance recovery is less than expected, specifically, the decline in profits and turnover rates.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's research report published in May this year only gave Haidilao a rating of \"keeping pace with the market\" with a target price of HK $56; The report revealed that the overall table turnover rate of Haidilao restaurants in April was less than 3, which was lower than March and lower than market expectations. Goldman Sachs' report published earlier in March gave a rating of \"neutral\" with a target price of HK $57; The report said at the time that the slow recovery speed may pose a risk to Haidilao's earnings and valuation in the short term-the big bank rating is neither \"buy\" nor \"overweight\", and has always been regarded by many investors as similar \"sell\".</p><p>China's hot pot market has long been a crimson sea, and this matter is an \"elephant in the room\", but for a long time, investors have treated Haidilao differently. Based on its industry status and brand reputation, Haidilao's valuation level is higher than that of peer companies like Yum China all year round.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/439773619a33e88fa51fa3e0eea53057\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It was COVID-19 pandemic who interrupted the inertia of relevant cognition. In 2020, the number of Haidilao stores will grow against the trend, but the situation in the first quarter of 2021 shows that the marginal improvement that can be brought about by continuous store expansion is weakening.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be fine? The question should be divided into two parts: (1) When will Haidilao's operation return to its former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price be revived? They are actually not the same question, and the answers to the two will not come simultaneously.</p><p><b>1、</b><b>Turnover rate crisis? Actually, it's a passenger flow crisis</b></p><p>The most discussed key indicator of Haidilao in the market is the turnover rate.</p><p>There are only two ways to improve the turnover rate of restaurants: First, shorten the dining time of customers; Second, improve customers' willingness to wait. When eating hot pot, what you eat is time. Haidilao's focus on maintaining the turnover rate is obviously the second point.</p><p>As we all know, Haidilao has created a complete set of value-added services to appease waiting customers, and no one in the catering industry has matched it for many years. Then, the preliminary conclusion about the decline in Haidilao's turnover rate is probably: it's not that the customers who come are unwilling to wait, but that not so many customers come.</p><p>We can use the two data of \"total restaurant revenue\" and \"per capita consumption of customers\" in the company's financial report to simply calculate the number of customers dining in Haidilao.</p><p>In 2019 and 2020, the revenue of Haidilao restaurants in first-tier cities was 6.481625 billion yuan and 5.930587 billion yuan respectively, and the per capita consumption of customers in first-tier cities was 110.1 yuan and 116.2 yuan respectively. By dividing \"income\" by \"per capita consumption\", we can see that in 2019, the number of customers of Haidilao restaurants in first-tier cities was approximately 58.87 million, while the data in 2020 was 51.038 million, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 13%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74fd31e686e63d79461f14b948b0da26\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"856\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Operating income of Haidilao restaurants by geographical region (data table intercepted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf05bf9209e24adc7be659956a4e0758\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Key performance indicators of Haidilao restaurant (data table intercepted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p>By the end of 2020, the total number of restaurants operated by Haidilao was 1,298, a year-on-year increase of nearly 70% from 768 in 2019. According to the financial report, in the whole year of 2020, Haidilao restaurants served more than 250 million customers, a year-on-year increase of only about 2.5% from 244 million in 2019.</p><p>At the same time, the turnover rate of Haidilao's newly opened restaurants in 2020 is only 2.8, a decrease of more than 30% from 4.1 in 2019.</p><p>Morgan Stanley revealed in a recent report that in April 2021, the table turnover rate of Haidilao's restaurants was lower than 3, a month-on-month decrease from March, and only about 70% of the level of the same period in 2019.</p><p>For reference, although the company's store opening speed is basically in line with market estimates, and the revenue scale of low-tier cities has seen considerable year-on-year growth,<b>Investors have reason to suspect that the marginal improvement that increasing the number of new stores can bring to Haidilao is weakening</b>。</p><p>In April, the hot search topic on Weibo of \"17 yuan to eat Haidilao\" showed that Haidilao had not lost the attention and goodwill of the mainstream public. But here's the more practical problem: customers still like you, but they just don't eat you.</p><p>So, where do the customers go?</p><p><b>2、</b><b>Substitutes are diversified, and the hot pot track sea is too red</b></p><p>To discuss whether Haidilao's turnover rate and stock price can return to the upward track, we first need to update our understanding of the hot pot market.</p><p>According to the data of China Hotel Association and NCBD (Meal Collection), in 2019, the total revenue of China's hot pot market reached 960 billion yuan. In 2020, this figure is expected to fall back to the level of 2018, about 880 billion yuan.</p><p>Since 2018, many predictions have pointed out that hot pot will be a trillion-level market; In the venture capital world, this is regarded as one of the main bases for betting on this track; New entrepreneurs, traditional famous enterprises and entertainment stars are all opening hot pot restaurants...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08148ee5651669c03c60db5e730d3309\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But for specific companies in the secondary market, the significance of trillion-level scale is not as great as it seems. The reason is that,<b>The concentration of the hot pot market is actually very low</b>。 According to the data of China Business Industry Research Institute in 2020, the CR5 of China's hot pot market is only 5.5%. The demand for eating hot pot is divided into fragments. Besides the faucet, there are many participants-</p><p>Category and brand innovation continues. Xiaolongkan and Tan Yaxue challenged Haidilao in taste and experience; Xiabuxiabu seeks to increase the unit price per customer (whether successful or not); Lazy Bear Hot Pot received nearly 100 million yuan in Series A financing in February. Chaoshan beef pot, Yunnan-style hot pot, fish in sour soup, coconut chicken... have spread from their origin to the whole country for several years.</p><p>The hot pot base material and seasoning industry is heating up. The \"Bottom Material Storm: In-depth Report on Hot Pot Bottom Material Industry\" published by China Merchants Securities in May pointed out that hot pot brands entering the C-end and traditional condiment companies expanding their categories are making the industry increasingly competitive. The addiction to spicy food and the lazy economy have driven the accelerated growth of the industry on the family side. The listed companies involved in the report include Yihai International, Tianwei Food, Haitian Flavor Industry, etc.</p><p>The rise of hot pot ingredients supermarkets. Hema Fresh launches \"hot pot season\"; Daily Youxian, Dingdong Maicai and other e-commerce companies make efforts; Yasui Foods and others took the opportunity to increase the market share of quick-frozen ingredients or ready-made food.</p><p>Cross-border attempts occur frequently. Mengniu and Gome enter the game; BESTORE and three squirrels are making self-healthy pots; Even station B came to mix in. In March 2021, Bilibili opened an official experience store in Shanghai for its documentary \"Life is Boiling\".</p><p>COVID-19 pandemic has promoted the cultivation of the habit of eating hot pot at home, and even the trendy small household appliances with optimized design and function are fueling the flames.</p><p>Of course, Haidilao has participated in all these things and achieved visible growth, but these businesses account for a small proportion of its total revenue, which is not enough to make up for the decline in the core indicators of the company's overall business. Take food delivery as an example. In 2020, Haidilao's food delivery business revenue increased from 448 million yuan in 2019 to 717 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%; But in terms of revenue share, it only rose from 1.7% to 2.5%.</p><p>Here I would like to reiterate the previous point,<b>The color of the red sea of hot pot is so dark that even if Haidilao's strategy of continuing to open stores works, the marginal utility will hardly reach the level of the early years</b>。</p><p>For the once high-growth leader, what the market values is not the growth rate, but the \"growth rate of the growth rate\". Once the slope of growth becomes moderate, the basic valuation judgment will also change.</p><p>It's not that the items listed above can fundamentally destroy the in-store dinner hot pot market with more social functions and ritual sense-as mentioned earlier, they are inherently scattered, but that the diversification of substitutes is inhibiting the re-growth of industry leaders such as Haidilao.</p><p>Because the base is already very high. According to data from Meituan Dianping, as of 2020, hot pot accounts for more than 13% of China's dinner market, which is already the sub-category with the highest share. We cannot be too optimistic that the total demand of the market can still expand at a high speed, or that the proportion of hot pot categories can still increase significantly.</p><p>There is also a possibility that hidden competition comes from the industry next door.</p><p>In the years before the word \"online celebrity\" became rampant, Haidilao was once the leader of the online celebrity world. The business community is circulating \"You Can't Learn Haidilao\", and good friends are keen to experience responsiveness and meticulousness together. The service quality of Haidilao has almost become an urban legend in the 1910s.</p><p>Until now,<b>This generation of young people dedicated the matter of \"queuing\" to milk tea and other online celebrity stores</b>。 According to NCBD data, young women are still the main group of hot pot consumers so far; In 2020, women accounted for 57.1% of Chinese hot pot consumers; Among them, 26-30 years old accounted for 30.1%, and 18-25 years old accounted for 28.1%. Let's not speculate rigorously. In the actual consumption scene, there are many formats competing with hot pot restaurants for waiting customers, which are far better than ten years ago.</p><p>The consumer preference of waiting for Haidilao has faded. Value-added packages consisting of manicures and small snacks are no longer novelty. More importantly, as the ultimate service experience of core competitiveness, with the gradual desensitization of customers and the rise of thresholds, the magic is also decaying. So far, we haven't discussed the decline in customer satisfaction caused by menu price increases and other issues.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Will Haidilao still be fine?</b></p><p>In 2020, Haidilao's strategy is to pick up high-quality stores on dips, with a net increase of 530 stores throughout the year. Among them, there was a net increase of 65 in first-tier cities in mainland China, rising to 255, a year-on-year increase of 34%, and the growth rate slowed down; There was a net increase of 167 in second-tier cities, a year-on-year increase of approximately 50%; There was a net increase of 257 companies in third-tier cities, a year-on-year increase of approximately 132%. In 2021, as of the end of March, the company has signed 91 newly contracted stores. In addition to the stores that were signed last year but have not yet opened, it is expected that the number of stores opened in 2021 will still be more than 500.</p><p>For the whole year of 2020, Haidilao's revenue still increased by 7.8% year-on-year, reaching 28.6 billion yuan. The net profit fell 86% year-on-year to 310 million yuan. In terms of operating costs, the cost of raw materials and consumables increased by 9.1% year-on-year; Due to business expansion and higher salary levels, staff costs increased by 21.1% year-on-year. Depreciation and amortization increased by 60.4% year-on-year.</p><p>Haidilao's financial report also pointed out that the company's financial costs rose from RMB 236.8 million in 2019 to RMB 445.6 million in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 88.2%, mainly due to the increase in interest on lease liabilities and bank borrowing interest. Under the circumstances that operations were shut down and cash flow withered during the epidemic, Haidilao borrowed a large amount of money to support the expansion of stores against the trend. As of December 31, 2020, its bank borrowings were 3.9894 billion yuan.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be fine? This question has to be split in two. (1) When will Haidilao's operation return to its former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price be revived? They're not actually the same problem.</p><p>At the operational level, with the deepening of domestic vaccination progress, the performance of hot pot restaurants will further recover with the recovery of people's social habits. At the same time, Haidilao's growth in low-tier cities is worth looking forward to. The more common view in the market is that Haidilao is recovering, but the recovery speed is slow.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley's report, Haidilao's turnover rate in April this year was less than 3;<b>It should be pointed out that even this turnover rate, which is considered to be lower than expected, is still significantly higher than the industry average</b>。 According to the data of China Hotel Association and NCBD, in China's catering industry, the turnover rate of dinners is about 2.1, fast food snacks can reach more than 8, and the overall turnover rate of hot pot format is about 2.3. According to Xiabuxiabu's financial report, the turnover rate of Coucou Hotpot was 2.9 in 2019 and dropped to 2.5 in 2020. In other words, Haidilao restaurants had a table turnover rate of 4.8 in 2019, which is twice the industry average.</p><p>The question now is not that Haidilao is no longer excellent, but whether the expectation of how good it can be and whether it can continue to become better is reasonable.</p><p>Therefore, at the stock price level, investors should beware of the possibility of its valuation center moving downward.</p><p>In the restaurant chain format, the historical trajectory of Starbucks' valuation changes can provide some reference. In the period of cutting-edge brand rise and rapid expansion, its P/E has continued to be higher than 50 times or even more than 100 times. After the end of the high-speed growth period, its P/E adjusts and fluctuates in the range of 20 times or even below; After the company returned to a steady upward track, Starbucks' valuation has been rationally restored to a large extent, but it has not returned to the level of the high-speed growth period.</p><p>For investors who want to buy Haidilao at the bottom, it is necessary to cautiously wait for a more certain signal of performance recovery.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Haidilao fell into the deep red sea, and it could not be fished just by opening a shop</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHaidilao fell into the deep red sea, and it could not be fished just by opening a shop\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Barrons巴伦 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-18 20:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For the once high-growth leader, the market values \"the growth rate of growth\". Once the slope of growth becomes moderate, the basic valuation judgment will also change. From mid-February to May 2021, Haidilao's stock price halved, from about 85 Hong Kong dollars to around 44 Hong Kong dollars. The direct incentive is that the performance recovery is less than expected, specifically, the decline in profits and turnover rates.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's research report published in May this year only gave Haidilao a rating of \"keeping pace with the market\" with a target price of HK $56; The report revealed that the overall table turnover rate of Haidilao restaurants in April was less than 3, which was lower than March and lower than market expectations. Goldman Sachs' report published earlier in March gave a rating of \"neutral\" with a target price of HK $57; The report said at the time that the slow recovery speed may pose a risk to Haidilao's earnings and valuation in the short term-the big bank rating is neither \"buy\" nor \"overweight\", and has always been regarded by many investors as similar \"sell\".</p><p>China's hot pot market has long been a crimson sea, and this matter is an \"elephant in the room\", but for a long time, investors have treated Haidilao differently. Based on its industry status and brand reputation, Haidilao's valuation level is higher than that of peer companies like Yum China all year round.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/439773619a33e88fa51fa3e0eea53057\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It was COVID-19 pandemic who interrupted the inertia of relevant cognition. In 2020, the number of Haidilao stores will grow against the trend, but the situation in the first quarter of 2021 shows that the marginal improvement that can be brought about by continuous store expansion is weakening.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be fine? The question should be divided into two parts: (1) When will Haidilao's operation return to its former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price be revived? They are actually not the same question, and the answers to the two will not come simultaneously.</p><p><b>1、</b><b>Turnover rate crisis? Actually, it's a passenger flow crisis</b></p><p>The most discussed key indicator of Haidilao in the market is the turnover rate.</p><p>There are only two ways to improve the turnover rate of restaurants: First, shorten the dining time of customers; Second, improve customers' willingness to wait. When eating hot pot, what you eat is time. Haidilao's focus on maintaining the turnover rate is obviously the second point.</p><p>As we all know, Haidilao has created a complete set of value-added services to appease waiting customers, and no one in the catering industry has matched it for many years. Then, the preliminary conclusion about the decline in Haidilao's turnover rate is probably: it's not that the customers who come are unwilling to wait, but that not so many customers come.</p><p>We can use the two data of \"total restaurant revenue\" and \"per capita consumption of customers\" in the company's financial report to simply calculate the number of customers dining in Haidilao.</p><p>In 2019 and 2020, the revenue of Haidilao restaurants in first-tier cities was 6.481625 billion yuan and 5.930587 billion yuan respectively, and the per capita consumption of customers in first-tier cities was 110.1 yuan and 116.2 yuan respectively. By dividing \"income\" by \"per capita consumption\", we can see that in 2019, the number of customers of Haidilao restaurants in first-tier cities was approximately 58.87 million, while the data in 2020 was 51.038 million, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 13%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74fd31e686e63d79461f14b948b0da26\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"856\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Operating income of Haidilao restaurants by geographical region (data table intercepted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf05bf9209e24adc7be659956a4e0758\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Key performance indicators of Haidilao restaurant (data table intercepted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p>By the end of 2020, the total number of restaurants operated by Haidilao was 1,298, a year-on-year increase of nearly 70% from 768 in 2019. According to the financial report, in the whole year of 2020, Haidilao restaurants served more than 250 million customers, a year-on-year increase of only about 2.5% from 244 million in 2019.</p><p>At the same time, the turnover rate of Haidilao's newly opened restaurants in 2020 is only 2.8, a decrease of more than 30% from 4.1 in 2019.</p><p>Morgan Stanley revealed in a recent report that in April 2021, the table turnover rate of Haidilao's restaurants was lower than 3, a month-on-month decrease from March, and only about 70% of the level of the same period in 2019.</p><p>For reference, although the company's store opening speed is basically in line with market estimates, and the revenue scale of low-tier cities has seen considerable year-on-year growth,<b>Investors have reason to suspect that the marginal improvement that increasing the number of new stores can bring to Haidilao is weakening</b>。</p><p>In April, the hot search topic on Weibo of \"17 yuan to eat Haidilao\" showed that Haidilao had not lost the attention and goodwill of the mainstream public. But here's the more practical problem: customers still like you, but they just don't eat you.</p><p>So, where do the customers go?</p><p><b>2、</b><b>Substitutes are diversified, and the hot pot track sea is too red</b></p><p>To discuss whether Haidilao's turnover rate and stock price can return to the upward track, we first need to update our understanding of the hot pot market.</p><p>According to the data of China Hotel Association and NCBD (Meal Collection), in 2019, the total revenue of China's hot pot market reached 960 billion yuan. In 2020, this figure is expected to fall back to the level of 2018, about 880 billion yuan.</p><p>Since 2018, many predictions have pointed out that hot pot will be a trillion-level market; In the venture capital world, this is regarded as one of the main bases for betting on this track; New entrepreneurs, traditional famous enterprises and entertainment stars are all opening hot pot restaurants...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08148ee5651669c03c60db5e730d3309\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But for specific companies in the secondary market, the significance of trillion-level scale is not as great as it seems. The reason is that,<b>The concentration of the hot pot market is actually very low</b>。 According to the data of China Business Industry Research Institute in 2020, the CR5 of China's hot pot market is only 5.5%. The demand for eating hot pot is divided into fragments. Besides the faucet, there are many participants-</p><p>Category and brand innovation continues. Xiaolongkan and Tan Yaxue challenged Haidilao in taste and experience; Xiabuxiabu seeks to increase the unit price per customer (whether successful or not); Lazy Bear Hot Pot received nearly 100 million yuan in Series A financing in February. Chaoshan beef pot, Yunnan-style hot pot, fish in sour soup, coconut chicken... have spread from their origin to the whole country for several years.</p><p>The hot pot base material and seasoning industry is heating up. The \"Bottom Material Storm: In-depth Report on Hot Pot Bottom Material Industry\" published by China Merchants Securities in May pointed out that hot pot brands entering the C-end and traditional condiment companies expanding their categories are making the industry increasingly competitive. The addiction to spicy food and the lazy economy have driven the accelerated growth of the industry on the family side. The listed companies involved in the report include Yihai International, Tianwei Food, Haitian Flavor Industry, etc.</p><p>The rise of hot pot ingredients supermarkets. Hema Fresh launches \"hot pot season\"; Daily Youxian, Dingdong Maicai and other e-commerce companies make efforts; Yasui Foods and others took the opportunity to increase the market share of quick-frozen ingredients or ready-made food.</p><p>Cross-border attempts occur frequently. Mengniu and Gome enter the game; BESTORE and three squirrels are making self-healthy pots; Even station B came to mix in. In March 2021, Bilibili opened an official experience store in Shanghai for its documentary \"Life is Boiling\".</p><p>COVID-19 pandemic has promoted the cultivation of the habit of eating hot pot at home, and even the trendy small household appliances with optimized design and function are fueling the flames.</p><p>Of course, Haidilao has participated in all these things and achieved visible growth, but these businesses account for a small proportion of its total revenue, which is not enough to make up for the decline in the core indicators of the company's overall business. Take food delivery as an example. In 2020, Haidilao's food delivery business revenue increased from 448 million yuan in 2019 to 717 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%; But in terms of revenue share, it only rose from 1.7% to 2.5%.</p><p>Here I would like to reiterate the previous point,<b>The color of the red sea of hot pot is so dark that even if Haidilao's strategy of continuing to open stores works, the marginal utility will hardly reach the level of the early years</b>。</p><p>For the once high-growth leader, what the market values is not the growth rate, but the \"growth rate of the growth rate\". Once the slope of growth becomes moderate, the basic valuation judgment will also change.</p><p>It's not that the items listed above can fundamentally destroy the in-store dinner hot pot market with more social functions and ritual sense-as mentioned earlier, they are inherently scattered, but that the diversification of substitutes is inhibiting the re-growth of industry leaders such as Haidilao.</p><p>Because the base is already very high. According to data from Meituan Dianping, as of 2020, hot pot accounts for more than 13% of China's dinner market, which is already the sub-category with the highest share. We cannot be too optimistic that the total demand of the market can still expand at a high speed, or that the proportion of hot pot categories can still increase significantly.</p><p>There is also a possibility that hidden competition comes from the industry next door.</p><p>In the years before the word \"online celebrity\" became rampant, Haidilao was once the leader of the online celebrity world. The business community is circulating \"You Can't Learn Haidilao\", and good friends are keen to experience responsiveness and meticulousness together. The service quality of Haidilao has almost become an urban legend in the 1910s.</p><p>Until now,<b>This generation of young people dedicated the matter of \"queuing\" to milk tea and other online celebrity stores</b>。 According to NCBD data, young women are still the main group of hot pot consumers so far; In 2020, women accounted for 57.1% of Chinese hot pot consumers; Among them, 26-30 years old accounted for 30.1%, and 18-25 years old accounted for 28.1%. Let's not speculate rigorously. In the actual consumption scene, there are many formats competing with hot pot restaurants for waiting customers, which are far better than ten years ago.</p><p>The consumer preference of waiting for Haidilao has faded. Value-added packages consisting of manicures and small snacks are no longer novelty. More importantly, as the ultimate service experience of core competitiveness, with the gradual desensitization of customers and the rise of thresholds, the magic is also decaying. So far, we haven't discussed the decline in customer satisfaction caused by menu price increases and other issues.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Will Haidilao still be fine?</b></p><p>In 2020, Haidilao's strategy is to pick up high-quality stores on dips, with a net increase of 530 stores throughout the year. Among them, there was a net increase of 65 in first-tier cities in mainland China, rising to 255, a year-on-year increase of 34%, and the growth rate slowed down; There was a net increase of 167 in second-tier cities, a year-on-year increase of approximately 50%; There was a net increase of 257 companies in third-tier cities, a year-on-year increase of approximately 132%. In 2021, as of the end of March, the company has signed 91 newly contracted stores. In addition to the stores that were signed last year but have not yet opened, it is expected that the number of stores opened in 2021 will still be more than 500.</p><p>For the whole year of 2020, Haidilao's revenue still increased by 7.8% year-on-year, reaching 28.6 billion yuan. The net profit fell 86% year-on-year to 310 million yuan. In terms of operating costs, the cost of raw materials and consumables increased by 9.1% year-on-year; Due to business expansion and higher salary levels, staff costs increased by 21.1% year-on-year. Depreciation and amortization increased by 60.4% year-on-year.</p><p>Haidilao's financial report also pointed out that the company's financial costs rose from RMB 236.8 million in 2019 to RMB 445.6 million in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 88.2%, mainly due to the increase in interest on lease liabilities and bank borrowing interest. Under the circumstances that operations were shut down and cash flow withered during the epidemic, Haidilao borrowed a large amount of money to support the expansion of stores against the trend. As of December 31, 2020, its bank borrowings were 3.9894 billion yuan.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be fine? This question has to be split in two. (1) When will Haidilao's operation return to its former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price be revived? They're not actually the same problem.</p><p>At the operational level, with the deepening of domestic vaccination progress, the performance of hot pot restaurants will further recover with the recovery of people's social habits. At the same time, Haidilao's growth in low-tier cities is worth looking forward to. The more common view in the market is that Haidilao is recovering, but the recovery speed is slow.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley's report, Haidilao's turnover rate in April this year was less than 3;<b>It should be pointed out that even this turnover rate, which is considered to be lower than expected, is still significantly higher than the industry average</b>。 According to the data of China Hotel Association and NCBD, in China's catering industry, the turnover rate of dinners is about 2.1, fast food snacks can reach more than 8, and the overall turnover rate of hot pot format is about 2.3. According to Xiabuxiabu's financial report, the turnover rate of Coucou Hotpot was 2.9 in 2019 and dropped to 2.5 in 2020. In other words, Haidilao restaurants had a table turnover rate of 4.8 in 2019, which is twice the industry average.</p><p>The question now is not that Haidilao is no longer excellent, but whether the expectation of how good it can be and whether it can continue to become better is reasonable.</p><p>Therefore, at the stock price level, investors should beware of the possibility of its valuation center moving downward.</p><p>In the restaurant chain format, the historical trajectory of Starbucks' valuation changes can provide some reference. In the period of cutting-edge brand rise and rapid expansion, its P/E has continued to be higher than 50 times or even more than 100 times. After the end of the high-speed growth period, its P/E adjusts and fluctuates in the range of 20 times or even below; After the company returned to a steady upward track, Starbucks' valuation has been rationally restored to a large extent, but it has not returned to the level of the high-speed growth period.</p><p>For investors who want to buy Haidilao at the bottom, it is necessary to cautiously wait for a more certain signal of performance recovery.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f2c25e060d113f3768c45cafc16292","relate_stocks":{"06862":"海底捞"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187734006","content_text":"对于曾经高成长的龙头，市场看重的是“增速的增速”。一旦增长的斜率变得缓和，基本的估值判断也将随之改变。\n\n2021年2月中旬至5月，海底捞股价腰斩，由大约85港元跌至44港元附近。直接诱因是业绩复苏不及预期，具体而言是利润和翻台率下滑。\n摩根士丹利于今年5月发表的研究报告仅给予海底捞“与大市同步”评级，目标价56港元；该报告透露，海底捞餐厅4月的整体翻台率小于3，低于3月，也低于市场预期。高盛更早于3月发表的报告给出的评级是“中性”，目标价57港元；报告当时称，翻台恢复速度缓慢，短期内可能对海底捞的收益和估值构成风险——大行评级既非“买入”，也非“增持”，向来被很多投资者视同为近似“卖出”。\n中国的火锅市场早已是深红色的海，这件事是“房间里的大象”，但在相当长的时间里，投资者对海底捞是区别对待的。基于行业地位和品牌美誉，海底捞的估值水平常年高于百胜中国这样的同业公司。\n\n是新冠疫情打断了相关认知的惯性。2020年，海底捞的门店数量逆势增长，但2021年一季度的情况显示，不断拓店所能带来的边际改善正在减弱。\n海底捞还会好吗？提问还要一分为二：（1）海底捞的经营何时回到昔日水平？（2）海底捞的股价能否重振？它们其实并不是同一个问题，两者的答案也不会同步到来。\n1、翻台率危机？其实是客流量危机\n海底捞被市场讨论最多的关键指标是翻台率。\n餐馆提升翻台率的方法无非两点：一，缩短顾客用餐时间；二，提升顾客等位意愿。吃火锅，吃的就是时间，海底捞维护翻台率的重心显然在于第二点。\n众所周知，海底捞开创出一整套安抚等位顾客的增值服务，餐饮界多年来无人能出其右。那么，关于海底捞翻台率下滑的初步结论恐怕是：不是来了的顾客不愿意等，而是没有那么多顾客到来。\n我们可以使用公司财报中的“餐厅总收入”和“顾客人均消费”这两项数据，来简单计算一下海底捞的顾客就餐人次。\n2019年、2020年，海底捞餐厅在一线城市的收入分别是64.81625亿元、59.30587亿元，一线城市的顾客人均消费分别为110.1元、116.2元。以“收入”除以“人均消费”可知，2019年，海底捞餐厅在一线城市的顾客人次大约是5887万人，而2020年的数据是5103.8万人，同比减少了大约13%。\n\n根据地理区域划分的海底捞餐厅经营收入（数据表格截取自公司财报）\n\n海底捞餐厅关键表现指标（数据表格截取自公司财报）\n至2020年末，海底捞经营餐厅总数为1298家，较2019年的768家同比增加接近70%。而据财报，2020年全年，海底捞餐厅服务顾客超2.5亿人次，较2019年的2.44亿人次同比增长仅约2.5%。\n同时，海底捞2020年新开餐厅的翻台率仅为2.8，较2019年的4.1下降了超过30%。\n而摩根士丹利在近期报告中透露，2021年4月，海底捞旗下餐厅翻台率低于3，较3月环比下跌，仅为2019年同期水平的约70%。\n参照来看，虽然该公司的开店速度基本符合市场预估，且低线城市的收入规模有可观的同比增长，但是，投资者有理由怀疑，不断增加新店数量能为海底捞带来的边际改善正在减弱。\n4月，“17元吃海底捞”的微博热搜话题表明，海底捞并没丧失主流大众的关注和好感。但更实际的问题是：顾客还喜欢你，他们只是不去吃你了。\n那么，顾客去了哪里？\n2、替代品多样化，火锅赛道海太红了\n要讨论海底捞的翻台率和股价能否重回上升轨道，首先需要更新对火锅市场的认知。\n中国饭店协会和NCBD（餐宝典）的数据显示，2019年，中国火锅市场的总收入规模达到了9600亿元，2020年，该数字预计已回落至2018年的水平，大约8800亿元。\n自2018年以来，早有多方预测指出，火锅将是一个万亿级别的市场；在创投界，这被当作是下注该赛道的主要依据之一；创业新锐、传统名企、娱乐明星，都在开火锅店……\n\n但对于二级市场的具体公司来说，万亿级规模的意义，并不像看上去那么大。原因在于，火锅市场的集中度其实非常低。中商产业研究院2020年的数据显示，中国火锅市场的CR5仅为5.5%。吃火锅的需求被碎片化地瓜分，龙头之外，参与者众——\n品类与品牌创新不断。小龙坎和谭鸭血在口味和体验上挑战了海底捞；呷哺呷哺谋求提升客单价（且不论成功与否）；懒熊火锅在2月份获得了近亿元A轮融资。潮汕牛肉锅、滇式火锅、酸汤鱼、椰子鸡……数年来各自从原产地向全国传播。\n火锅底料和调料行业升温。招商证券5月发表的《底料风暴：火锅底料产业深度报告》指出，切入C端的火锅品牌和扩张品类的传统调味品企业正使该行业竞争日益激烈。而辣味成瘾性和懒人经济，驱动了该行业在家庭端的增长加速。报告中涉及的上市公司包括颐海国际、天味食品、海天味业等。\n火锅食材超市兴起。盒马鲜生推出“火锅季”；每日优鲜、叮咚买菜等电商发力；安井食品等趁机提升速冻食材或预制菜的市占率。\n跨界尝试频现。蒙牛、国美入局；良品铺子和三只松鼠在做自嗨锅；连B站都来掺合，2021年3月，哔哩哔哩在上海为其纪录片《生活如沸》开了一家官方体验店。\n新冠疫情促进了宅家吃火锅习惯的培养，连设计和功能优化的新潮小家电也在推波助澜。\n凡此种种，海底捞当然多有参与，也取得了可见的增长，但这些业务在其总收入中占比很小，不足以弥补公司整体业务核心指标的下滑。以外卖为例，2020年，海底捞外卖业务收入从2019年的4.48亿元上升到7.17亿元，同比增长了60%；但在收入占比方面，仅从1.7%上升至2.5%。\n这里要重申前文的观点，火锅红海的颜色如此之深，海底捞继续开店的策略即使奏效，边际效用也难以达到早年的水平。\n对于曾经高成长的龙头，市场看重的不是增速，而是“增速的增速”。一旦增长的斜率变得缓和，基本的估值判断也将随之改变。\n并不是说，以上列举的事项，能从根本上破坏更具社交功能和仪式感的到店正餐火锅市场——如前所述，它们本来就很分散，而是说，替代品的多样化在抑制海底捞等行业龙头的再成长。\n因为基数已经很高。来自美团点评的数据显示，截至2020年，在中国的正餐市场中，火锅的占比超过13%，已经是其中份额最高的细分品类。我们不能过于乐观地认为，市场的总需求还能高速扩张，或是火锅品类的占比仍能大幅提升。\n还有一种离得稍远的可能性是，隐性竞争还来自隔壁行业。\n在“网红”这个词还没泛滥的岁月里，海底捞曾经就是网红界的魁首。商业界在传阅《海底捞你学不会》，好朋友们热衷于结伴体验有求必应和无微不至。海底捞的服务品质，几乎成为本世纪10年代的都市传说。\n到如今，这届年轻人把“排队”这件事献给了奶茶和其他网红店。NCBD的数据显示，年轻女性迄今仍是火锅消费的主要人群；2020年，中国火锅消费者的女性占比是57.1%；其中26—30岁占比30.1%，18—25岁占比28.1%。不严谨地推测一下，在实际消费场景中，跟火锅店争夺等位顾客的业态之多，远胜于十年前。\n等位就等海底捞的消费者偏好有所淡化。由美甲和小零食组成的增值套餐不再新奇。更关键的是，作为核心竞争力的极致服务体验，随着顾客的逐渐脱敏和阈值抬升，魔力也在衰变。至此，我们还未讨论菜单涨价等问题造成的顾客满意度下降。\n3、海底捞还会好吗\n2020年，海底捞的策略是逢低拾取优质店铺，全年净增530家门店。其中，在中国大陆一线城市净增65家，上升至255家，同比增34%，增速放缓；二线城市净增167家，同比增约50%；三线城市净增257家，同比增约132%。2021年，截至3月末，该公司新签约门店91家，加上去年已签约、未开业的店面，预计2021年全年的开店数量仍将在500家以上。\n2020年全年，海底捞营收仍有7.8%的同比增长，达到286亿元。而净利润同比下降86%，为3.1亿元。经营成本方面，原材料及易耗品成本同比上升了9.1%；由于业务扩张和薪资水平提高，员工成本同比上升了21.1%。折旧及摊销同比上升了60.4%。\n海底捞的财报亦指出，公司财务成本从2019年的人民币2.368亿元上升到2020年的人民币4.456亿元，同比增长了88.2%，主要由租赁负债利息和银行借款利息增加所致。在疫情中经营停摆、现金流枯萎的情况下，海底捞借入了大额款项来支撑逆势扩店。截至2020年12月31日，其银行借款为39.894亿元。\n海底捞还会好吗？这个提问还要一分为二。（1）海底捞的经营何时回到昔日水平？（2）海底捞的股价能否重振？它们其实并不是同一个问题。\n在经营层面，随着国内疫苗接种进度的深入，火锅店的业绩会随人们的社交习惯恢复进一步复苏。同时，海底捞在低线城市的增长是值得期待的。市场较普遍的观点是，海底捞在恢复，但恢复速度较缓。\n据摩根士丹利的报告，海底捞今年4月的翻台率小于3；需要指出的是，即使是这个被认为不及预期的翻台率，依然要显著高于行业均值。中国饭店协会和NCBD的数据显示，在中国餐饮业中，正餐的翻台率在2.1左右，快餐小吃可以达到8以上，而火锅业态整体的翻台率约为2.3。依据呷哺呷哺的财报，凑凑火锅的翻台率2019年为2.9，2020年降至2.5。换言之，海底捞餐厅在2019年时高达4.8的翻台率，是行业均值的两倍。\n现在的问题，不是海底捞不再优秀，而是关于它能优秀到何种程度、能不断变得更为优秀的预期是否合理。\n所以在股价层面，投资者应该提防其估值中枢下移的可能性。\n在餐饮连锁业态中，星巴克的估值变化历史轨迹可以提供某种参考。在身为新锐、品牌崛起、高速扩张的时期，其市盈率曾持续高于50倍、甚至百倍以上。而高速成长期结束后，其市盈率在20倍乃至以下区间调整、震荡；待公司重回平稳上升的轨道后，星巴克的估值得到很大程度的理性修复，但并未回到高速成长期的水平。\n对想要抄底海底捞的投资者而言，谨慎等待更具确定性的业绩复苏信号，是很有必要的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06862":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129240951,"gmtCreate":1624375058273,"gmtModify":1703834928936,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"ess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22:30","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Behind the \"most expensive game card in history\" lies a major corruption case","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191907311","media":"雷达财经","summary":"一张纪念卡牌能有多贵？答案是8700万元。","content":"<p>Text | Zhang Kaijing</p><p>How expensive can a commemorative card be? The answer is 87 million yuan.</p><p>On June 21, 2021, the bidding price of the Yu-Gi Oh limited-edition card \"Blue Eyes White Dragon\" exceeded 87 million yuan only half an hour after the auction started in Ali. Platform data shows that it has experienced a total of 2,105 rounds of bidding, and more than 2.32 million people watched the grand occasion of the auction. In the end, the auction was suspended due to possible malicious speculation and bidding. One day later, another personal item of the same holder, USB flash drive, was also auctioned for a sky-high price of nearly 40,000 yuan, and the auction was also forcibly suspended.</p><p>Yan Chuang, a lawyer at Beijing Zhongwen Law Firm, told Radar Finance that if a person participating in a judicial auction is found to be a malicious auction, the people's court can impose fines and detention according to the seriousness of the circumstances, and if a crime is constituted, criminal responsibility can also be investigated in accordance with the law. If the last person who made a transaction fails to pay the money within the time limit, resulting in re-auction, he should also bear the difference and cost loss caused by it. However, according to the current situation, due to the cancellation of the auction, the final bidder will not be held accountable.</p><p>Radar Finance noticed that someone had been punished for malicious bidding and regretting the auction before. In addition, Ali Auction has also reminded of the risk of regret.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that behind this auction, there is also a major corruption case hidden. In November 2020, Zhang Yujie, an employee of a company in Chuzhou, was sentenced to life imprisonment on suspicion of corruption, and all his personal property was confiscated. It is worth mentioning that the \"luxury goods\" he bought with the embezzled funds of 69.9325 million yuan include Rolex watches, Lafite in 1982, in addition to the pure gold card of \"Blue Eyes and White Dragon\" game king...</p><p><b>Yu-Gi King cards started at 80 yuan and sold at a sky-high price of 87 million</b></p><p>The Game King \"Blue Eyes and White Dragon\" auctioned this time is a limited-edition card, which is made of about 11g of 24K gold. It is a king-level collection among the exchangeable cards.</p><p>Game King is an anime broadcast in Japan after 2000, with card monster duel and seven thousand-year-old artifacts as the main line, and its card game is the highest-selling exchange card game in the world developed by KONAMI and certified by Guinness World Records. At present, the cumulative sale of this series of cards has exceeded 25.17 billion.</p><p>According to media reports, the series to which this card belongs is limited to 500 sets, each of which has a unique collection number and certificate printed with \"No.1-500\". The official price is 200,000 yen (about 12,000 yuan), and the market price is around 200,000-300,000 yuan.</p><p>Radar Finance noticed that this price is not outstanding in the card history of Yu-Gi-Oh. Previously, some Japanese netizens exposed a \"Blue-Eyed Ultimate Dragon\" with a price of up to 45 million yen, which is said to be the championship prize of the 2001 Asian Championships, the only one in the world; Others put the prize card \"Chaos Warrior\" of an official competition in 2000 on the online mall, with a price of 999.8 million yen, which is now about over 58 million yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6624224470d5695709484e2e4c7d7420\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, after the sky-high price of 87 million yuan was auctioned, this \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" has undoubtedly broken the previous record and become the highest-priced Game King card in the world.</p><p>According to the data of Ali Auction, a total of 18,104 people signed up for this auction, 76,716 people set reminders, and more than 2.3 million onlookers. The reason why the starting price is only 80 yuan, according to an up owner who participated in the auction, is that after the original holder entrusted a friend to buy it from Japan, he threw away the packaging box and certificate in order to avoid taxes when passing through customs.</p><p>At 16:00 on June 21st, the card officially started to be auctioned. As of 16:32: 34, 2,105 people had bid for the auction. Before the auction was stopped, the last bidder bid number was Y8745, with a bid of 87,326,098 yuan.</p><p>According to the statistics of some netizens, Y8745 bid 3 times in total. The entry time was 25 minutes after the auction started, and the bid amounts were 52156075, 54106076 and the last 87326098 respectively. The top three bidders made 47, 33 and 25 bids.</p><p><b>After the most expensive Yu-Gi-Oh card in history, the most expensive U flash drive in history appears</b></p><p>It is worth mentioning that on June 22, another property under the name of the original owner of \"Blue Eyes White Dragon\"-a SanDisk U flash drive was also suspended from the auction because \"the value of the lot is seriously inconsistent with the actual auction price, and there may be malicious price increase. behavior\".</p><p>The Intermediate People's Court of Chuzhou City, Anhui Province said in the announcement on a U flash drive of the executed person that the starting price of the U flash drive is 40 yuan, and the evaluated price is 50 yuan. Its service life is unknown, it has not been used for a long time, and there are no accessories and instructions. Whether it can be used normally is unknown.</p><p>But at the end of June 21st, the bidding price of the USB flash drive had risen to 1512 yuan. As of 15: 21: 45 on June 22nd, that is, before the auction was suspended, the auction price of the U flash drive was as high as 39,810 yuan, with a total of 1,186 bids, attracting more than 290,000 onlookers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/668ef66d7a88165ee2e260cc041e0701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"This should be the most expensive USB flash drive in history, right?\" Some netizens lamented. According to the pictures displayed, the U flash drive has only 4GB of memory. Radar Finance search found that the most expensive U flash drive in the e-commerce platform SanDisk flagship store is currently priced at 1,499 yuan, with a memory of 1TB, which is more than 250 times that of the auction U flash drive. However, there are also rumors that the reason why the U flash drive was robbed was that it contained Bitcoin's secret key.</p><p>\"The series of lots in the same case have maliciously raised prices twice in a row, and the auction of other lots has been terminated.\" According to the platform announcement, due to the sky-high price of Yu-Gi-Oh cards and U flash drives in the past two days, the auction of other lots of the holder has been suspended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b505dfca4e980f39ff75f7eff2e359\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Lawyer: Malicious bidding needs to bear serious consequences</b></p><p>\"The deposit is not high, so netizens find it fun, and they don't know the seriousness of judicial auction.\" Lawyer Yan Chuang said.</p><p>According to Article 111 of the Civil Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China and Article 187 of the Interpretation of the Supreme People's Court on the Application of the Civil Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China, the people's court may impose a fine or detain on a buyer who maliciously raises the price in judicial online auction and disturbs the order of judicial auction. If it constitutes a crime, it shall be investigated for criminal responsibility according to law.</p><p>Yan Chuang explained that malicious auction means that those who participate in judicial auction have no real intention to buy, register false personal information, or collude with the executed person or know that they have no ability to pay, but still bid with others, maliciously raise the price, prevent others from bidding normally, and lead to various behaviors that hinder and interfere with court execution and judicial auction activities, such as failed auction.</p><p>In addition, the relevant laws also stipulate that after the judicial online auction is completed, the deposit paid by the buyer will not be refunded even if he regrets the auction. If the buyer fails to pay the price within the time limit, the people's court may decide to re-auction. If the re-auction price is lower than the original auction price, the difference and cost loss caused by it shall also be borne by the original buyer.</p><p>\"The last transaction is the highest price transaction. If it fails to pay the money within the time limit, resulting in a re-auction, it will have to bear the price difference and cost losses.\" Yan Chuang pointed out.</p><p>However, Yan Chuang also admitted that the auction has been cancelled at present, and the last bidder does not need to bear the corresponding responsibility. \"People still need to raise their legal awareness.\"</p><p>Radar Finance noticed that in the reminder of Ali's auction, a bidder had previously broken the contract, was detained by the judiciary for 15 days, and fined 100,000 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed663f33627d1f4b7d6b37576e2b854d\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"796\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e7d1fe16c72c8e3516881f5da185280\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Originated from the major corruption case five years ago</b></p><p>Behind the most expensive Game King card and the most expensive U disk in this auction, there is a major corruption case hidden.</p><p>According to the indictment publicized by the People's Procuratorate of Chuzhou City, Anhui Province, Zhang Yujie, the original holder of the \"Blue Eyes and White Dragon\" game Wang Chunjin card, was born in 1995. From 2016 to April 2019, he took advantage of his work in the fund custody position of a company in Chuzhou City, and repeatedly embezzled the custody funds of the stock house totaling 69.9325 million yuan by collecting the custody funds without recording them, falsifying the facts of collection, etc.</p><p>Specifically, Zhang Yujie successively embezzled the custody funds paid by 399 buyers, and also purchased two houses in Chuzhou City in the name of his girlfriend Zhou Moumou at that time. Without paying the purchase price, he issued false custody certificates for the transaction funds of stock houses in Chuzhou City, and embezzled custody funds of 2.6 million yuan and 3.9 million yuan according to the false custody certificates.</p><p>According to Ali's auction bidding announcement, the property bought by Zhang Yujie with \"stolen money\" includes Hainan Huanghuali wooden bracelet, 8 watches of Rolex, GUCCI and OMEGA, 3 DIOR glasses, 10 bottles of red wine and commemorative banknotes with great collectible value, such as Lafite Winery Dry Red Wine 1982, but it is a dry electronic product that highlights its personality most. Including BRIKK gold-plated and diamond-studded game controller, 500 million limited edition PS4 Pro console, \"God of War 4\" limited edition PS4 Pro console, 3 Switch consoles, 4 Alien computers, a large number of Sony and beats headphones and 4 Apple tablets Computers, 2 laptops, 11 mobile phones...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/febc5320757fdea9e3866b27dbf3d2eb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Public information shows that the deluxe version of the gold-plated and diamond-encrusted PS4 controller is priced at about US $14,000, the 500 million limited edition PS4 Pro console is priced at 3,799 yuan, and the limited edition PS4 Pro console of \"God of War 4\" is priced at about US $400.</p><p>In March 2020, Zhang Yujie was detained by the Tianchang Municipal Supervisory Committee on suspicion of corruption. Two months later, he was arrested by the Tianchang Municipal Public Security Bureau. In November of the same year, Zhang Yujie was sentenced to life imprisonment and all his personal property was confiscated.</p>","source":"lsy1575359225748","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the \"most expensive game card in history\" lies a major corruption case</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the \"most expensive game card in history\" lies a major corruption case\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雷达财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 22:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Text | Zhang Kaijing</p><p>How expensive can a commemorative card be? The answer is 87 million yuan.</p><p>On June 21, 2021, the bidding price of the Yu-Gi Oh limited-edition card \"Blue Eyes White Dragon\" exceeded 87 million yuan only half an hour after the auction started in Ali. Platform data shows that it has experienced a total of 2,105 rounds of bidding, and more than 2.32 million people watched the grand occasion of the auction. In the end, the auction was suspended due to possible malicious speculation and bidding. One day later, another personal item of the same holder, USB flash drive, was also auctioned for a sky-high price of nearly 40,000 yuan, and the auction was also forcibly suspended.</p><p>Yan Chuang, a lawyer at Beijing Zhongwen Law Firm, told Radar Finance that if a person participating in a judicial auction is found to be a malicious auction, the people's court can impose fines and detention according to the seriousness of the circumstances, and if a crime is constituted, criminal responsibility can also be investigated in accordance with the law. If the last person who made a transaction fails to pay the money within the time limit, resulting in re-auction, he should also bear the difference and cost loss caused by it. However, according to the current situation, due to the cancellation of the auction, the final bidder will not be held accountable.</p><p>Radar Finance noticed that someone had been punished for malicious bidding and regretting the auction before. In addition, Ali Auction has also reminded of the risk of regret.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that behind this auction, there is also a major corruption case hidden. In November 2020, Zhang Yujie, an employee of a company in Chuzhou, was sentenced to life imprisonment on suspicion of corruption, and all his personal property was confiscated. It is worth mentioning that the \"luxury goods\" he bought with the embezzled funds of 69.9325 million yuan include Rolex watches, Lafite in 1982, in addition to the pure gold card of \"Blue Eyes and White Dragon\" game king...</p><p><b>Yu-Gi King cards started at 80 yuan and sold at a sky-high price of 87 million</b></p><p>The Game King \"Blue Eyes and White Dragon\" auctioned this time is a limited-edition card, which is made of about 11g of 24K gold. It is a king-level collection among the exchangeable cards.</p><p>Game King is an anime broadcast in Japan after 2000, with card monster duel and seven thousand-year-old artifacts as the main line, and its card game is the highest-selling exchange card game in the world developed by KONAMI and certified by Guinness World Records. At present, the cumulative sale of this series of cards has exceeded 25.17 billion.</p><p>According to media reports, the series to which this card belongs is limited to 500 sets, each of which has a unique collection number and certificate printed with \"No.1-500\". The official price is 200,000 yen (about 12,000 yuan), and the market price is around 200,000-300,000 yuan.</p><p>Radar Finance noticed that this price is not outstanding in the card history of Yu-Gi-Oh. Previously, some Japanese netizens exposed a \"Blue-Eyed Ultimate Dragon\" with a price of up to 45 million yen, which is said to be the championship prize of the 2001 Asian Championships, the only one in the world; Others put the prize card \"Chaos Warrior\" of an official competition in 2000 on the online mall, with a price of 999.8 million yen, which is now about over 58 million yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6624224470d5695709484e2e4c7d7420\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, after the sky-high price of 87 million yuan was auctioned, this \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" has undoubtedly broken the previous record and become the highest-priced Game King card in the world.</p><p>According to the data of Ali Auction, a total of 18,104 people signed up for this auction, 76,716 people set reminders, and more than 2.3 million onlookers. The reason why the starting price is only 80 yuan, according to an up owner who participated in the auction, is that after the original holder entrusted a friend to buy it from Japan, he threw away the packaging box and certificate in order to avoid taxes when passing through customs.</p><p>At 16:00 on June 21st, the card officially started to be auctioned. As of 16:32: 34, 2,105 people had bid for the auction. Before the auction was stopped, the last bidder bid number was Y8745, with a bid of 87,326,098 yuan.</p><p>According to the statistics of some netizens, Y8745 bid 3 times in total. The entry time was 25 minutes after the auction started, and the bid amounts were 52156075, 54106076 and the last 87326098 respectively. The top three bidders made 47, 33 and 25 bids.</p><p><b>After the most expensive Yu-Gi-Oh card in history, the most expensive U flash drive in history appears</b></p><p>It is worth mentioning that on June 22, another property under the name of the original owner of \"Blue Eyes White Dragon\"-a SanDisk U flash drive was also suspended from the auction because \"the value of the lot is seriously inconsistent with the actual auction price, and there may be malicious price increase. behavior\".</p><p>The Intermediate People's Court of Chuzhou City, Anhui Province said in the announcement on a U flash drive of the executed person that the starting price of the U flash drive is 40 yuan, and the evaluated price is 50 yuan. Its service life is unknown, it has not been used for a long time, and there are no accessories and instructions. Whether it can be used normally is unknown.</p><p>But at the end of June 21st, the bidding price of the USB flash drive had risen to 1512 yuan. As of 15: 21: 45 on June 22nd, that is, before the auction was suspended, the auction price of the U flash drive was as high as 39,810 yuan, with a total of 1,186 bids, attracting more than 290,000 onlookers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/668ef66d7a88165ee2e260cc041e0701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"This should be the most expensive USB flash drive in history, right?\" Some netizens lamented. According to the pictures displayed, the U flash drive has only 4GB of memory. Radar Finance search found that the most expensive U flash drive in the e-commerce platform SanDisk flagship store is currently priced at 1,499 yuan, with a memory of 1TB, which is more than 250 times that of the auction U flash drive. However, there are also rumors that the reason why the U flash drive was robbed was that it contained Bitcoin's secret key.</p><p>\"The series of lots in the same case have maliciously raised prices twice in a row, and the auction of other lots has been terminated.\" According to the platform announcement, due to the sky-high price of Yu-Gi-Oh cards and U flash drives in the past two days, the auction of other lots of the holder has been suspended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b505dfca4e980f39ff75f7eff2e359\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Lawyer: Malicious bidding needs to bear serious consequences</b></p><p>\"The deposit is not high, so netizens find it fun, and they don't know the seriousness of judicial auction.\" Lawyer Yan Chuang said.</p><p>According to Article 111 of the Civil Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China and Article 187 of the Interpretation of the Supreme People's Court on the Application of the Civil Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China, the people's court may impose a fine or detain on a buyer who maliciously raises the price in judicial online auction and disturbs the order of judicial auction. If it constitutes a crime, it shall be investigated for criminal responsibility according to law.</p><p>Yan Chuang explained that malicious auction means that those who participate in judicial auction have no real intention to buy, register false personal information, or collude with the executed person or know that they have no ability to pay, but still bid with others, maliciously raise the price, prevent others from bidding normally, and lead to various behaviors that hinder and interfere with court execution and judicial auction activities, such as failed auction.</p><p>In addition, the relevant laws also stipulate that after the judicial online auction is completed, the deposit paid by the buyer will not be refunded even if he regrets the auction. If the buyer fails to pay the price within the time limit, the people's court may decide to re-auction. If the re-auction price is lower than the original auction price, the difference and cost loss caused by it shall also be borne by the original buyer.</p><p>\"The last transaction is the highest price transaction. If it fails to pay the money within the time limit, resulting in a re-auction, it will have to bear the price difference and cost losses.\" Yan Chuang pointed out.</p><p>However, Yan Chuang also admitted that the auction has been cancelled at present, and the last bidder does not need to bear the corresponding responsibility. \"People still need to raise their legal awareness.\"</p><p>Radar Finance noticed that in the reminder of Ali's auction, a bidder had previously broken the contract, was detained by the judiciary for 15 days, and fined 100,000 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed663f33627d1f4b7d6b37576e2b854d\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"796\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e7d1fe16c72c8e3516881f5da185280\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Originated from the major corruption case five years ago</b></p><p>Behind the most expensive Game King card and the most expensive U disk in this auction, there is a major corruption case hidden.</p><p>According to the indictment publicized by the People's Procuratorate of Chuzhou City, Anhui Province, Zhang Yujie, the original holder of the \"Blue Eyes and White Dragon\" game Wang Chunjin card, was born in 1995. From 2016 to April 2019, he took advantage of his work in the fund custody position of a company in Chuzhou City, and repeatedly embezzled the custody funds of the stock house totaling 69.9325 million yuan by collecting the custody funds without recording them, falsifying the facts of collection, etc.</p><p>Specifically, Zhang Yujie successively embezzled the custody funds paid by 399 buyers, and also purchased two houses in Chuzhou City in the name of his girlfriend Zhou Moumou at that time. Without paying the purchase price, he issued false custody certificates for the transaction funds of stock houses in Chuzhou City, and embezzled custody funds of 2.6 million yuan and 3.9 million yuan according to the false custody certificates.</p><p>According to Ali's auction bidding announcement, the property bought by Zhang Yujie with \"stolen money\" includes Hainan Huanghuali wooden bracelet, 8 watches of Rolex, GUCCI and OMEGA, 3 DIOR glasses, 10 bottles of red wine and commemorative banknotes with great collectible value, such as Lafite Winery Dry Red Wine 1982, but it is a dry electronic product that highlights its personality most. Including BRIKK gold-plated and diamond-studded game controller, 500 million limited edition PS4 Pro console, \"God of War 4\" limited edition PS4 Pro console, 3 Switch consoles, 4 Alien computers, a large number of Sony and beats headphones and 4 Apple tablets Computers, 2 laptops, 11 mobile phones...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/febc5320757fdea9e3866b27dbf3d2eb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Public information shows that the deluxe version of the gold-plated and diamond-encrusted PS4 controller is priced at about US $14,000, the 500 million limited edition PS4 Pro console is priced at 3,799 yuan, and the limited edition PS4 Pro console of \"God of War 4\" is priced at about US $400.</p><p>In March 2020, Zhang Yujie was detained by the Tianchang Municipal Supervisory Committee on suspicion of corruption. Two months later, he was arrested by the Tianchang Municipal Public Security Bureau. In November of the same year, Zhang Yujie was sentenced to life imprisonment and all his personal property was confiscated.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h3GLEKF7fJ7gkRSxVxq2zw\">雷达财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e584cf3e83856adee20fc26b5873221","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h3GLEKF7fJ7gkRSxVxq2zw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191907311","content_text":"文|张凯旌\n一张纪念卡牌能有多贵？答案是8700万元。\n2021年6月21日，游戏王限量卡牌“青眼白龙”在阿里拍卖开拍仅半小时后，竞买价格就突破了8700万元。平台数据显示，其共经历2105轮竞买，有超过232万人围观了此次拍卖会的盛况。最终，因可能存在恶意炒作与竞价行为，本场拍卖被中止。一天后，相同持有人的另一私人物品——U盘也被拍出近4万元的天价，而这场拍卖同样遭到了强制中止。\n北京市中闻律师事务所律师闫创对雷达财经表示，若参与司法拍卖的人员被认定属于恶意竞拍，人民法院可以根据情节严重程度予以罚款、拘留，构成犯罪的还可以依法追究刑事责任。最后一个成交的人如果因逾期不支付款项，导致重新拍卖，造成的差价及费用损失也应由他来承担。不过根据目前的情况，因拍卖取消，最后出价的人不用被追究责任。\n雷达财经注意到，此前曾有人为恶意出价并悔拍的行为遭处罚。此外，阿里拍卖也曾提示过悔拍风险。\n值得一提的是，此次拍卖背后，还隐藏着一个贪腐大案。2020年11月，滁州某公司员工张雨杰因涉嫌贪污罪被判处无期徒刑，没收个人全部财产。值得一提的是，他用贪污得来的6993.25万元资金所购买的“奢侈品”，除了“青眼白龙”游戏王纯金卡牌，还包括劳力士手表、82年拉菲……\n游戏王卡牌80元起拍，拍出8700万天价\n此次拍卖的游戏王“青眼白龙”属于限量卡牌，用料为约11g的24K金，是集换式卡牌中的王者级藏品。\n游戏王是2000年后在日本播出的一部以卡牌怪兽决斗和七件千年神器为主线的动漫，而其卡片游戏则是由KONAMI研发，吉尼斯世界纪录认证的全世界销量最高的集换式卡牌游戏。目前，该系列卡牌累计发售已突破251亿7000万张。\n据媒体报道，该卡牌所属系列限量发售500套，每一张都有独特的印有“No.1-500”的收藏编号和证书，官方定价为20万日元（约合1.2万元人民币），市场价在20-30万元左右。\n雷达财经注意到，这个价格在游戏王的卡牌历史中本不算出众。此前有日本网友晒出一张售价高达4500万日元的“青眼究极龙”，据说是2001年亚洲锦标赛的冠军奖品，全世界仅此一张；还有人将2000年某次官方大赛的奖品卡“混沌战士”上架至网络商城，标价9.998亿日元，放在现在约合超5800万元人民币。\n\n但是在拍出8700万元的天价后，这张“青眼白龙”无疑已经打破此前的纪录，成为了全世界拍卖价格最高的游戏王卡牌。\n从阿里拍卖的数据来看，此次拍卖共有18104人报名，76716人设置提醒，超过230万次围观。之所以起拍价仅为80元，根据一位参与拍卖的up主所述，是因为原持有人委托友人从日本购入后，过海关时为了避税把包装盒及证书都扔了。\n6月21日16时，该卡牌正式开始拍卖，截至16时32分34秒，已有2105人出价拍卖，在拍卖被叫停前，最后一名出价的网友竞买号为Y8745，出价8732.6098万元。\n有网友统计发现，Y8745共出价3次，进场时间在开始拍卖25分钟后，出价金额分别是52156075、54106076和最后的87326098。而竞拍次数排名前三位的竞拍者则拍了47、33和25次。\n史上最贵游戏王卡牌后又现史上最贵U盘\n值得一提的是，6月22日，“青眼白龙”原持有人名下的另一项财产——一个SanDisk U盘也因“拍品价值与实际竞拍价格严重不符，可能存在恶意抬价的行为”被中止拍卖。\n安徽省滁州市中级人民法院在关于被执行人U盘1个的公告中称，该U盘起拍价为40元，评估价为50元，使用年限不明，长久未使用，无任何配件及说明书，能否正常使用不详。\n但6月21日结束时，该U盘的竞买价格已升至1512元。而截至6月22日15时21分45秒，即拍卖中止前，该U盘的拍卖价格更是高达39810元，共有1186次竞买，总计吸引了超29万次围观。\n\n“这应该是史上最贵U盘了吧？”有网友感叹。根据展示出的图片，该U盘内存仅4GB，雷达财经搜索发现，目前电商平台闪迪旗舰店中，最贵的U盘售价为1499元，内存1TB，是拍卖U盘的超250倍。但也有传言称，该U盘遭疯抢的原因系其中存着比特币的秘钥。\n“同一案件的系列拍品，已经连续两次出现恶意抬价行为，对其他拍品终止拍卖。”根据平台公告，受近两日天价游戏王卡牌和U盘的影响，已中止对该持有人其他拍品的拍卖活动。\n\n律师：恶意竞拍需承担严重后果\n“保证金不高，网民们就觉得好玩，对于司法拍卖的严肃性并不了解。”律师闫创称。\n根据《中华人民共和国民事诉讼法》第一百一十一条及《最高人民法院关于适用〈中华人民共和国民事诉讼法〉的解释》第一百八十七条之规定，对于在司法网拍中恶意抬价，扰乱司法拍卖秩序的买受人，人民法院可以对其罚款、拘留，构成犯罪的，依法追究刑事责任。\n闫创解释称，恶意竞拍，就是参与司法拍卖的人员，没有真实购买意愿，登记虚假个人信息、或者与被执行人串通或明知自己无支付能力，仍与他人竞价、恶意抬价，阻止他人正常竞买，导致流拍等各种妨碍、干扰法院执行和司法拍卖活动的行为。\n除此之外，相关法律还规定，司法网拍成交后，买受人即使悔拍，其所交纳的保证金也不予退还。如果买受人逾期未支付价款，人民法院可以裁定重新拍卖。重新拍卖的价款若低于原拍卖价款，所造成的差价、费用损失等，亦由原买受人承担。\n“最后一个成交的，就是最高价成交，如果其逾期不支付款项，导致重新拍卖的话，其要承担所造成的差价及费用损失。”闫创指出。\n不过闫创也坦言，目前拍卖已被取消，最后一个出价的竞买人也就无需承担相应责任。“民众还是需要提高法律意识。”\n雷达财经注意到，阿里拍卖的提示中，此前有竞拍人毁约，被司法拘留15日，并罚款10万元。\n\n\n缘起五年前贪污大案\n此次拍卖的最贵游戏王卡牌、最贵U盘背后，隐藏着一个贪腐大案。\n安徽省滁州市人民检察院公示的起诉书显示，“青眼白龙”游戏王纯金卡牌的原持有者张雨杰出生于1995年，在2016年至2019年4月期间，借自己在滁州市某公司存量房资金托管岗位工作的契机，采取收取托管资金不入账直接侵吞、伪造收款事实等方式，多次贪污存量房托管资金计6993.25万元。\n具体而言，张雨杰先后侵吞了399户买房人缴纳的托管资金，还曾以时任女友周某某的名义购买了位于滁州市的两套房产，在未缴纳购房款的情况下，开具虚假的滁州市存量房交易资金托管凭证，根据虚假托管凭证侵吞托管资金260万元、390万元。\n根据阿里拍卖竞买公告，张雨杰用“赃款”购买的财产包括海南黄花梨木质手串、劳力士、GUCCI、OMEGA共计8块手表、3支DIOR眼镜、拉菲酒庄干红葡萄酒1982等10瓶极具收藏价值的红葡萄酒、纪念钞等，但最能突出其个性的还是一干电子产品。包括BRIKK镀金镶钻游戏手柄、五亿限定版PS4 Pro主机、《战神4》限定版PS4 Pro主机，3台Switch主机、4台外星人电脑、大量索尼、beats的耳机和苹果的4台平板电脑、2台笔记本电脑、11部手机……\n\n公开信息显示，镀金镶钻PS4手柄豪华版售价约14000美元，五亿限定版PS4 Pro主机售价3799元，《战神4》限定版PS4 Pro主机售价约400美元。\n2020年3月，张雨杰因涉嫌贪污罪被天长市监察委员会留置，两个月后，其被天长市公安局执行逮捕。同年11月，张雨杰被判处无期徒刑，没收个人全部财产。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168515476,"gmtCreate":1623978586195,"gmtModify":1703825240006,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","text":"Like & comment, thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168515476","repostId":"2144164740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144164740","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623978494,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144164740?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The day after the Fed is expected to earlier the rate hike, long-term U.S. bond yields plummeted. Why?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144164740","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"周四，30年期美债收益率大幅下行16个基点，创2月来最大盘中跌幅和四个月最低，五年/30年期收益率曲线创去年11月来最平。一方面，美联储加息时间提前抑制长期通胀预期，促使收益率曲线走平，同时，这也是QE即将终结的号角。市场对“流动性盛宴”的惯性思维亟需转变。","content":"<p>On Thursday, June 17, one day after the Federal Reserve's FOMC unexpectedly turned hawkish and the \"dot plot\" hinted that it would advance to the 2023 rate hike, the yield of long-term U.S. Treasury Bond plummeted, giving up all yesterday's gains, and the yield curve became even more flat.</p><p>The 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury Bond yield returned below the 1.50% mark, with the deepest decline of 9.7 basis points in the day, and the daily low was forced to 1.47%. Yesterday, it soared from less than 1.50% to 1.569%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd5267d3487e22248de30cd4fd7ac10\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as much as 16 basis points during the day, the largest intraday decline since February, reaching a daily low of 2.049%, the lowest in four months since mid-February</b>。 Yesterday's increase was relatively small, rising from 2.18% to nearly 2.21%, so today's decline is even more striking.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e99ec07722cd40c57e5f41723bb984\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The five-year and 30-year U.S. bond yield curves have flattened, and the yield spread between medium-term and long-term U.S. bonds has plummeted to 118 basis points, the flattest curve since November last year. After yesterday's FOMC meeting, the five-year U.S. bond yield soared by more than 11 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1fcf3d4cdb870f82a2403d36fe9c72c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. bond yields fell, U.S. bank stocks collectively fell sharply. Banking ETFs fell more than 4% at midday, and the Philadelphia KBW Bank Index fell 4.5%, the largest intraday drop in seven months.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Both fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Down 3%.</p><p>At the same time, ICE the US Dollar Index once broke through the 92 integer digit, setting a two-month high since April 13. Spot gold fell below $1,770 for the first time since May 5, and COME August gold futures closed down nearly 4.7%, at least the largest one-day drop of the main contract since November last year, closing at less than $1,775, which was also the lowest since April 30. The lowest closing.</p><p><h2><b>The Fed's rate hike timetable curbs long-term inflation expectations ahead of schedule, prompting the U.S. bond yield curve to flatten</b></h2><b>Why is there a dramatic reversal in long-term U.S. bond yields while the yield curve is accelerating its collapse?</b>According to Bloomberg data, the flattening of the composite U.S. bond yield curve in the past two days is the highest level since the liquidity crisis in March last year.</p><p>Some analysts believe that the latest dot plot of the Federal Reserve expects two rate hike before the end of 2023. This shift has pushed up shorter-term market interest rates and restricted long-term inflation expectations, leading to a flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve. Money market traders even brought forward their 25 basis point pricing expectations for the Fed's rate hike to the fourth quarter of next year.</p><p>George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, believes that the Fed's \"credibility as an inflation fighter\" has given a green light to people who were previously worried about buying long-term Treasury Bond as an investment. Market participants have begun to buy long-term U.S. bonds to hedge their investments. Other riskier positions in the portfolio.</p><p>Priya Misra, head of global interest rate strategy at TD Securities, also believes that the reflation trade has suffered a \"major setback\" following the hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve at its June policy meeting, and recommends exiting bets on the five-year/30-year U.S. bond A deal in which the yield curve steepens. Praveen Korapaty, chief interest rate strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, holds a similar view.</p><p>Financial media CNBC believes that the prices of base metals such as copper continue to fall on a weekly basis, and bond traders are paying attention to the sharp sell-off of commodities. Bond yields typically move in tandem with commodities because they are both seen as barometers of global economic growth. Today's latest data shows that the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the United States increased to 412,000 last week, returning to above the 400,000 mark, higher than market expectations of 360,000. Safe-haven demand has also caused some investors to return to the U.S. bond market, thus depressing bond yields.</p><p>Financial blog Zerohedge quoted analysis from global economic trend website Mish Talk as saying that the U.S. bond yield curve cannot be called \"absolutely flat\" at present, but the trend of gradual flattening is very important. The sharp drop in the 30-year long-term U.S. bond yield itself is also an important signal,<b>This means that the inflation panic is basically in the \"rearview mirror\", that is, it is not the main point that the market is worried about and affects trading actions.</b></p><p><h2><b>The high-profile flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve may be a clarion call for the end of QE quantitative easing bond buying. Investors should buy bonds</b></h2>Wall Street News also pointed out that yesterday's FOMC meeting, which was called \"the most important in five years\", marked that monetary policy will gradually enter the second half. In the future, the focus of market differences may lie in the \"slowness\" and \"urgency\" of monetary policy normalization, rather than whether it will be normalized or not. The inertia thinking of \"liquidity feast\" needs to be changed:</p><p>Judging from the results, we mentioned in Tuesday's preview that the four major \"surprises\" actually came to fruition: the release of Taper, the increase in inflation expectations, the movement of rate hike time, and the increase in IOER/ON RRP interest rates, which means that the Federal Reserve has shown that it has passed Expected guidance tools, releasing a posture of phased exit signals.<b>Many people believe that the high-profile flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve is a warning that QE quantitative easing bond buying is coming to an end</b>。</p><p>Analyst Michael Lebowtiz compared the performance of U.S. bond yields in different periods before, during and after the Fed's previous QEs. He found that the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose during each QE period and fell at the end of QE, as shown in the circle below. When the Federal Reserve reversed QE bond buying through quantitative tightening (QT), U.S. bond yields tend to fall sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5552ccf371c5563f87db936ffe98c66\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Similarly, the two-year/10-year U.S. bond yield curve moves similarly. During QE quantitative easing, short-term yields are relatively stable and long-term yields rise, that is, the yield curve steepens, but after the end of QE, the yield curve will flatten quickly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2370108d5040760978868677b50c507\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The advice he gave was:</p><p>\"From the beginning of QE to the peak yield level during QE, the 10-year U.S. bond yield tends to rise by about 1%. U.S. bond yields will peak before the end of QE, when the Fed will get closer and closer to taper or stop QE purchases. At present, U.S. bond yields are approaching their cyclical highs, and if the Fed approaches tapering bond purchases, U.S. bond yields may peak. Given the previous experience of tapering bond purchases at the end of QE, if the Fed is actually about to taper, the 10-year U.S. bond yield will drop by 1% or more in the next six months to one year. What stock market investors may not know is that bonds are underperforming during QE and will be strong after QE.<b>Bond investors should sell when the Fed buys and buy when the Fed sells.</b>As our confidence in the Fed reducing the pace of quantitative easing grows, both our aggregate bond allocation and bond duration should increase. \" Since the FOMC unexpectedly turned hawkish yesterday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Economists believe that the Federal Reserve will officially announce its taper plan to reduce asset purchases at its September meeting. The actual reduction in bond purchases will begin in November, faster than they previously expected to be announced in November this year and implemented in January next year. And taper is also a precursor to actual rate hike.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Ming Ming once said that a flattened yield curve may have an impact on consumption levels. Therefore, a flattened yield curve usually indicates that the market believes that economic growth is unsustainable and will decline in the future:</p><p>The increase of short-term yield level may indirectly affect some mortgage interest rates. If short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates, some consumer mortgage interest rates will also rise, thus affecting consumers' consumption demand; In addition, the increase of short-term Treasury Bond interest rate may increase some financing costs, and the disposable income of consumers will be relatively reduced, which may have a negative impact on consumer demand. The flattening yield curve also has a negative impact on fixed-income investors and real estate investors.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The day after the Fed is expected to earlier the rate hike, long-term U.S. bond yields plummeted. Why?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe day after the Fed is expected to earlier the rate hike, long-term U.S. bond yields plummeted. Why?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, June 17, one day after the Federal Reserve's FOMC unexpectedly turned hawkish and the \"dot plot\" hinted that it would advance to the 2023 rate hike, the yield of long-term U.S. Treasury Bond plummeted, giving up all yesterday's gains, and the yield curve became even more flat.</p><p>The 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury Bond yield returned below the 1.50% mark, with the deepest decline of 9.7 basis points in the day, and the daily low was forced to 1.47%. Yesterday, it soared from less than 1.50% to 1.569%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd5267d3487e22248de30cd4fd7ac10\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as much as 16 basis points during the day, the largest intraday decline since February, reaching a daily low of 2.049%, the lowest in four months since mid-February</b>。 Yesterday's increase was relatively small, rising from 2.18% to nearly 2.21%, so today's decline is even more striking.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e99ec07722cd40c57e5f41723bb984\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The five-year and 30-year U.S. bond yield curves have flattened, and the yield spread between medium-term and long-term U.S. bonds has plummeted to 118 basis points, the flattest curve since November last year. After yesterday's FOMC meeting, the five-year U.S. bond yield soared by more than 11 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1fcf3d4cdb870f82a2403d36fe9c72c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. bond yields fell, U.S. bank stocks collectively fell sharply. Banking ETFs fell more than 4% at midday, and the Philadelphia KBW Bank Index fell 4.5%, the largest intraday drop in seven months.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Both fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Down 3%.</p><p>At the same time, ICE the US Dollar Index once broke through the 92 integer digit, setting a two-month high since April 13. Spot gold fell below $1,770 for the first time since May 5, and COME August gold futures closed down nearly 4.7%, at least the largest one-day drop of the main contract since November last year, closing at less than $1,775, which was also the lowest since April 30. The lowest closing.</p><p><h2><b>The Fed's rate hike timetable curbs long-term inflation expectations ahead of schedule, prompting the U.S. bond yield curve to flatten</b></h2><b>Why is there a dramatic reversal in long-term U.S. bond yields while the yield curve is accelerating its collapse?</b>According to Bloomberg data, the flattening of the composite U.S. bond yield curve in the past two days is the highest level since the liquidity crisis in March last year.</p><p>Some analysts believe that the latest dot plot of the Federal Reserve expects two rate hike before the end of 2023. This shift has pushed up shorter-term market interest rates and restricted long-term inflation expectations, leading to a flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve. Money market traders even brought forward their 25 basis point pricing expectations for the Fed's rate hike to the fourth quarter of next year.</p><p>George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, believes that the Fed's \"credibility as an inflation fighter\" has given a green light to people who were previously worried about buying long-term Treasury Bond as an investment. Market participants have begun to buy long-term U.S. bonds to hedge their investments. Other riskier positions in the portfolio.</p><p>Priya Misra, head of global interest rate strategy at TD Securities, also believes that the reflation trade has suffered a \"major setback\" following the hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve at its June policy meeting, and recommends exiting bets on the five-year/30-year U.S. bond A deal in which the yield curve steepens. Praveen Korapaty, chief interest rate strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, holds a similar view.</p><p>Financial media CNBC believes that the prices of base metals such as copper continue to fall on a weekly basis, and bond traders are paying attention to the sharp sell-off of commodities. Bond yields typically move in tandem with commodities because they are both seen as barometers of global economic growth. Today's latest data shows that the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the United States increased to 412,000 last week, returning to above the 400,000 mark, higher than market expectations of 360,000. Safe-haven demand has also caused some investors to return to the U.S. bond market, thus depressing bond yields.</p><p>Financial blog Zerohedge quoted analysis from global economic trend website Mish Talk as saying that the U.S. bond yield curve cannot be called \"absolutely flat\" at present, but the trend of gradual flattening is very important. The sharp drop in the 30-year long-term U.S. bond yield itself is also an important signal,<b>This means that the inflation panic is basically in the \"rearview mirror\", that is, it is not the main point that the market is worried about and affects trading actions.</b></p><p><h2><b>The high-profile flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve may be a clarion call for the end of QE quantitative easing bond buying. Investors should buy bonds</b></h2>Wall Street News also pointed out that yesterday's FOMC meeting, which was called \"the most important in five years\", marked that monetary policy will gradually enter the second half. In the future, the focus of market differences may lie in the \"slowness\" and \"urgency\" of monetary policy normalization, rather than whether it will be normalized or not. The inertia thinking of \"liquidity feast\" needs to be changed:</p><p>Judging from the results, we mentioned in Tuesday's preview that the four major \"surprises\" actually came to fruition: the release of Taper, the increase in inflation expectations, the movement of rate hike time, and the increase in IOER/ON RRP interest rates, which means that the Federal Reserve has shown that it has passed Expected guidance tools, releasing a posture of phased exit signals.<b>Many people believe that the high-profile flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve is a warning that QE quantitative easing bond buying is coming to an end</b>。</p><p>Analyst Michael Lebowtiz compared the performance of U.S. bond yields in different periods before, during and after the Fed's previous QEs. He found that the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose during each QE period and fell at the end of QE, as shown in the circle below. When the Federal Reserve reversed QE bond buying through quantitative tightening (QT), U.S. bond yields tend to fall sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5552ccf371c5563f87db936ffe98c66\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Similarly, the two-year/10-year U.S. bond yield curve moves similarly. During QE quantitative easing, short-term yields are relatively stable and long-term yields rise, that is, the yield curve steepens, but after the end of QE, the yield curve will flatten quickly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2370108d5040760978868677b50c507\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The advice he gave was:</p><p>\"From the beginning of QE to the peak yield level during QE, the 10-year U.S. bond yield tends to rise by about 1%. U.S. bond yields will peak before the end of QE, when the Fed will get closer and closer to taper or stop QE purchases. At present, U.S. bond yields are approaching their cyclical highs, and if the Fed approaches tapering bond purchases, U.S. bond yields may peak. Given the previous experience of tapering bond purchases at the end of QE, if the Fed is actually about to taper, the 10-year U.S. bond yield will drop by 1% or more in the next six months to one year. What stock market investors may not know is that bonds are underperforming during QE and will be strong after QE.<b>Bond investors should sell when the Fed buys and buy when the Fed sells.</b>As our confidence in the Fed reducing the pace of quantitative easing grows, both our aggregate bond allocation and bond duration should increase. \" Since the FOMC unexpectedly turned hawkish yesterday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Economists believe that the Federal Reserve will officially announce its taper plan to reduce asset purchases at its September meeting. The actual reduction in bond purchases will begin in November, faster than they previously expected to be announced in November this year and implemented in January next year. And taper is also a precursor to actual rate hike.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Ming Ming once said that a flattened yield curve may have an impact on consumption levels. Therefore, a flattened yield curve usually indicates that the market believes that economic growth is unsustainable and will decline in the future:</p><p>The increase of short-term yield level may indirectly affect some mortgage interest rates. If short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates, some consumer mortgage interest rates will also rise, thus affecting consumers' consumption demand; In addition, the increase of short-term Treasury Bond interest rate may increase some financing costs, and the disposable income of consumers will be relatively reduced, which may have a negative impact on consumer demand. The flattening yield curve also has a negative impact on fixed-income investors and real estate investors.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633223\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633223","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144164740","content_text":"6月17日周四，在美联储FOMC意外转鹰、“点阵图”暗示将提前至2023年加息的一天后，美国长期国债收益率大跌，回吐昨日全部涨幅，收益率曲线更加趋平。\n10年期基准美国国债收益率重回1.50%关口下方，日内最深下行9.7个基点，日低下逼1.47%，昨日曾从不足1.50%飙升至1.569%。\n\n30年期美债收益率日内最深下行16个基点，创2月以来最大盘中跌幅，日低至2.049%，刷新2月中旬来的四个月最低。昨日涨幅相对不大，曾从2.18%升至近2.21%，因此今日跌势更加醒目。\n\n五年期与30年期美债收益率曲线更为趋平，中期与长期美债典型代表的收益率息差骤降至118个基点，曲线为去年11月以来最平状态。昨日FOMC会后，五年期美债收益率曾暴涨超11个基点。\n\n伴随美债收益率下跌，美股银行股集体大跌，午盘时银行业ETF跌超4%，费城KBW银行指数下跌4.5%，创七个月最大盘中跌幅。富国银行、花旗、美国银行、摩根士丹利均跌超4%，高盛和摩根大通跌3%。\n同时，ICE美元指数一度上破92整数位，刷新4月13日以来的两个月高位。现货黄金自5月5日以来首次跌破1770美元，COME 8月期金收跌近4.7%，至少创去年11月以来主力合约最大单日跌幅，收报不足1775美元，也创4月30日以来收盘最低。\n美联储加息时间表提前抑制长期通胀预期，促使美债收益率曲线趋平\n为何长期美债收益率出现戏剧性逆转，同时收益率曲线在加速坍塌？据彭博社数据，过去两天的综合美债收益率曲线趋平幅度，为去年3月流动性危机以来的最高水平。\n有分析认为，美联储最新点阵图预期2023年底之前将加息两次，这一转变推高了较短期限的市场利率，并制约了长期通胀预期，导致美债收益率曲线趋平。货币市场交易员们甚至把对美联储加息25个基点的定价预期提前到了明年第四季度。\nMUFG Securities Americas 美国宏观策略主管George Goncalves认为，美联储“作为通胀斗士的可信度”，给此前担心购买长久期国债作为投资的人们大开绿灯，市场参与者开始购入长期美债，用来对冲投资组合中其他风险更高的头寸。\n道明证券的全球利率策略主管Priya Misra也认为，继美联储在6月政策会议上发出鹰派信号之后，再通胀交易（reflation trade）遭受了“重大挫折”，建议退出押注五年/30年期美债收益率曲线陡峭化的交易。高盛集团首席利率策略师Praveen Korapaty也持类似观点。\n财经媒体CNBC则认为，铜等基础金属价格继续周度下跌，债券交易员正在关注大宗商品的大幅抛售。债券收益率通常与大宗商品同步变动，因为它们都被视为全球经济增长的晴雨表。今日最新数据显示，上周美国首申失业金人数增至41.2万，重回40万关口上方，高于市场预期的36万人，避险需求也导致部分投资者回流美债市场，进而压低债券收益率。\n金融博客Zerohedge援引全球经济趋势网站Mish Talk的分析称，美债收益率曲线目前不能称为“绝对平坦”，但日渐趋平的趋势很重要，30年期长期美债收益率大跌本身也是重要信号，这代表通胀恐慌已经基本处于“后视镜”中，即不是市场主要担心并影响交易举动的要点了。\n美债收益率曲线高调趋平或是QE量宽买债即将终结的号角，投资者应买债\n华尔街见闻也分析指出，昨日被称为“五年来最重要”的FOMC会议标志着货币政策将逐渐走入下半场，以后市场分歧的焦点或在于货币政策正常化的“缓”与“急”，而不是会否正常化，“流动性盛宴”的惯性思维需要作出转变：\n\n 从结果来看，我们在周二前瞻中提到四大“惊喜”居然系数落地：放风Taper，通胀预期上调，加息时点前移，IOER /ON RRP利率上调，这意味着美联储已表现出通过预期引导工具，释放阶段性退出信号的姿态。\n\n不少人认为，美债收益率曲线高调趋平发出的正是QE量宽买债即将终结的警示音。\n分析师Michael Lebowtiz对比了美债收益率在美联储历次QE前、中、后不同时期的表现。他发现，10年期美债收益率在每个QE期间上升、并在QE结束时下降，如下图画圈处所示，当美联储通过量化紧缩 （QT）来逆转QE买债时，美债收益率往往急剧下降。\n\n同样，两年/10年期美债收益率曲线的走势类似。QE量宽期间，短期收益率相对稳定且长期收益率上升，即收益率曲线陡峭化，但在QE结束后，收益率曲线会迅速变平。\n\n他给出的建议是：\n\n “从QE开始到QE期间的峰值收益率水平处，10年期美债收益率往往会上涨约1%。美债收益率会在QE结束前达到峰值，这时美联储也会越来越接近缩减购债（taper）或停止QE购买。目前，美债收益率正接近其周期高点，如果美联储接近缩减购债，美债收益率可能会见顶。鉴于此前的QE末期缩减购债经验，如果美联储实际上即将taper，10年期美债收益率会在未来6个月到一年内下降1%甚至更多。股市投资者可能不知道的是，QE期间债券表现不佳，QE结束后会表现强劲。\n 债券投资者应该在美联储买入时卖出、在美联储卖出时买入。随着我们对美联储降低量化宽松步伐的信心增强，我们的债券配置总量和债券久期都应增加。”\n\n自昨日FOMC意外转鹰后，巴克莱银行的经济学家认为，美联储将在9月会议上正式宣布缩减资产购买的taper计划，实际削减买债从11月开始执行，快于他们此前预期的今年11月宣布和明年1月开始执行。而taper也是实际加息的前兆。\n中信证券明明曾称，趋平的收益率曲线可能会对消费水平有所影响，因此，收益率曲线趋平通常表明市场认为经济增长不可持续，将在未来下降：\n\n 短期收益率水平的上升可能会通过间接影响某些抵押贷款利率，如果短期利率高于长期利率，一些消费抵押贷款利率也会随之升高，进而影响消费者的消费需求；此外，短期国债利率的升高可能会提升部分融资成本，消费者的可支配收入相对减少，对消费需求可能产生负面影响。趋平的收益率曲线对固定收益投资者和房地产投资者也有负面影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194860244,"gmtCreate":1621354245688,"gmtModify":1704356365440,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194860244","repostId":"1128296319","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319816032804888,"gmtCreate":1719109018761,"gmtModify":1719109022706,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6c9de0261dd57f972a29afdfd2e42481","width":"902","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319816032804888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122355577,"gmtCreate":1624599611599,"gmtModify":1703841432341,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/122355577","repostId":"1147716343","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123761054,"gmtCreate":1624439602078,"gmtModify":1703836727655,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123761054","repostId":"1129009844","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129009844","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624438364,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129009844?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 16:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Regulation hits Bitcoin's mining machine market, Bitmain suspends spot mining machine sales","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129009844","media":"界面新闻","summary":"加密货币矿业的上游供应开始受到监管影响。","content":"<p><div>Reporter/Silinwei The upstream supply of cryptocurrency mining is beginning to be affected by regulation. On June 23, Bitmain told cryptocurrency miners that due to the recent influx of a large number of second-hand machines into the market, it temporarily stopped selling spot machines in order to ease customer shipment pressure. An insider of Bitmain told Jiemian News: \"This is the general direction, but the specific sales details have not been notified yet.\" At the same time, it is reported that Bitmain has announced a comprehensive overseas transfer, especially some middle and senior employees are moving overseas. Bitmain said it was not convenient to disclose it to the public for the time being. Bitmain is currently one of the largest Bitcoin mining machine manufacturers in the world...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"jm","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Regulation hits Bitcoin's mining machine market, Bitmain suspends spot mining machine sales</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRegulation hits Bitcoin's mining machine market, Bitmain suspends spot mining machine sales\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">界面新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 16:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Reporter/Silinwei The upstream supply of cryptocurrency mining is beginning to be affected by regulation. On June 23, Bitmain told cryptocurrency miners that due to the recent influx of a large number of second-hand machines into the market, it temporarily stopped selling spot machines in order to ease customer shipment pressure. An insider of Bitmain told Jiemian News: \"This is the general direction, but the specific sales details have not been notified yet.\" At the same time, it is reported that Bitmain has announced a comprehensive overseas transfer, especially some middle and senior employees are moving overseas. Bitmain said it was not convenient to disclose it to the public for the time being. Bitmain is currently one of the largest Bitcoin mining machine manufacturers in the world...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">界面新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27dbfbd85956a77609a6a352c6752bcc","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129009844","content_text":"记者／司林威\n加密货币矿业的上游供应开始受到监管影响。\n6月23日，比特大陆对加密货币矿工表示，由于近期大量二手机器涌入市场，为缓解客户出货压力，暂时停售现货机器。\n比特大陆内部人士向界面新闻表示：“大方向是这样，但具体销售细节暂未接到通知。”\n同时，有消息称比特大陆已宣布全面向海外转移，特别是部分中高层员工正向海外转移。比特大陆方表示暂不方便对外透露。\n比特大陆是目前全球最大的比特币矿机厂商之一，近年来在AI领域也有大量布局。在6月19日于成都举行的行业交流会上，比特大陆发布了其新品，但并非为比特币专业矿机。会上比特大陆还打出“抱团取暖，拒绝恶性竞争”的标语。现场参会的矿工透露，海外挖矿业务成了本次交流会的主要议题。\n为何比特大陆要暂停现货矿机销售？本质还是受到国内监管冲击。\n随着内蒙古、新疆、四川、青海、云南等地陆续开始叫停比特币挖矿和清退各类矿场，除一部分矿机转移至中亚和海外，大量被清退的矿机被迫关机后流入二手矿机市场，直接冲击了原有的矿机市场。\n监管政策落地后，界面新闻记者获悉多位矿工已开始售卖矿机。有矿业公司已开始清退客户矿机，并开始清仓甩卖相关矿机。\n以矿机市场销售人员近几日的报价为例，比特大陆旗下蚂蚁S19系列某款矿机6月15日报价为4万元，6月23日报价已降至3万元关口。且据矿工透露，目前市场价格处于恐慌中的低点，有价无市，愿意接手的人并不多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129255294,"gmtCreate":1624374952718,"gmtModify":1703834925157,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment, thank you so much&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment, thank you so much&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment, thank you so much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129255294","repostId":"1196342132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196342132","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美国最大的独立第三方研究机构之一，成立20年，专为美股、港股、A股个人投资者提供前沿内容。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"弹道财经","id":"1031387410","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d5f4b95db8404bba99942eba2fb10c"},"pubTimestamp":1624362521,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196342132?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Value Stocks Return! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196342132","media":"弹道财经","summary":"随着价值股也成为趋势股，投资者对低估值、强趋势的股票的兴趣正在大量集结。","content":"<p>By David Eifrig, PhD</p><p>Abstract: Whether you agree with Buffett or Soros, you can grasp a kind of trading opportunity now, because it actually conforms to the ideas of these two bosses at the same time!</p><p><b>This article focuses on</b></p><p><b>1. Buffett VS Soros, who will you side with?</b></p><p><b>2. Value stocks are becoming trend stocks, and the two bosses reach the same goal by different routes?</b></p><p>Berry Research Statement: The views in this article are based on open market information and historical data. They are not used as direct investment suggestions and are for communication only. Welcome to leave a message to discuss related topics.</p><p><b>PART1</b></p><p><b>Buffett VS Soros, who will you side with?</b></p><p>In many cases, investors entering the market have to face a multiple-choice question, should they side with Buffett or Soros? Behind them are two sets of investment philosophies.</p><p>The success of investors Warren Buffett and George Soros is legendary. Whether Soros made $1 billion during the \"downfall of the Bank of England\" period, or Buffett got a 1550% return from Coca-Cola stock, they all have a brilliant record, which is a success that many people can hardly replicate.</p><p>But if investors intend to imitate the investment routines of these two legends, they usually can only choose one big man to follow. Because the views of these two investment tycoons on volatility and risk are diametrically opposite. Most of the time, investors either side with Buffett or Soros.</p><p><b>Buffett is known for his value investing, and he cautiously focuses on companies with strong fundamentals.</b>He is a long-term investor and is not good at speculative trading. In the long run, he has proven that his strategy works-his return on investment is enough to dump most speculators a few blocks.</p><p>Buffett famously said, \"Only when the tide goes out will you know who is swimming naked.\"</p><p>In other words, it is the bull market that provides cover for excessively risky bets. But if investors have been taking risks, but have not done their due diligence and are not adequately prepared for the decline, then investors will bear the brunt when the bubble bursts.</p><p><b>Contrary to Buffett, Soros likes to jump into strong market trends</b>(Translator's note: Trend investors, that is, what we often call chasing ups and killing downs), as he said in 2009: \"When I see a bubble form, I will buy quickly and add fuel to the fire.\"</p><p>In Soros's view, the speculative frenzy is not a red flag, but an opportunity. After the market breaks away from the fundamentals, they will continue to rise at an unprecedented rate, which is simply unimaginable with fixed earnings growth.</p><p>At times like this,<b>Soros's investment philosophy is to put aside fundamentals and invest according to investor sentiment.</b></p><p>It can be seen that from these two most successful investors in history, what we can see is diametrically opposite investment wisdom. Soros wants to swim naked until the last wave hits, while Buffett will say, Beware, you have to wear swimming trunks.</p><p>This is an essential problem lurking in investment.</p><p>When investors see some market signs, such as seeing that a trend is forming and funds are flowing, do they want to follow the trend and ride the wind and waves at this time? Or should we consider \"mean\" regression and bet on their true value? Most of the time, there is no unique correct answer to this multiple choice question.</p><p>For example, in the recent \"meme stock\" frenzy, some stocks, including struggling retailer GameStop (symbol: GME), have been completely out of touch with reality.</p><p>Maybe Soros will say that the market is too crazy and it's time to make big money, so he will find a relatively perfect trading opportunity for GameStop to aggravate the madness of this stock.</p><p>Buffett is the opposite. He might say that GameStop's price is ridiculous and unsustainable, and he would never get his hands on this stock.</p><p>As shown in the chart below, as of now, Soros's trading method is mostly correct. However, we are also convinced that Buffett's judgment will eventually be verified.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131badcea9697f37888f66d925cc5811\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But those crazy stocks aside,<b>At present, a factor is emerging in the market, giving investors the opportunity to take sides with Soros and Buffett at the same time. There are some types of stocks that may be favored by both the Soros camp and the Buffett camp.</b></p><p><b>PART2</b></p><p><b>Value stocks are becoming trend stocks, and the two big guys reach the same goal by different routes?</b></p><p>Value stocks are Buffett's favorite type of investment. Simply put, they refer to stocks with low valuations. They can usually<b>Use a lower price-to-book ratio as a judgment index.</b>Value investors typically explore stable investment opportunities in these stocks with solid but undervalued businesses.</p><p>Trend stocks mainly refer to those stocks whose prices continue to rise.<b>Generally speaking, they tend to generate positive high yields for 12 consecutive months.</b></p><p>The vast majority of the time, value investors and trend investors have opposite views on the market. Specifically:</p><p>The value school believes that if the price of a stock goes up, then its price becomes no longer cheap.</p><p>Trenders believe that if a stock is trading cheap, its price will usually continue to go lower.</p><p>And as the economy strengthens, the market begins to favor value stocks.<b>Value stocks also have the characteristics of trend stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39214033b136845c7cfca78cbb02174\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The opportunity could be huge.</p><p>Many investors and institutions on Wall Street identify themselves as value investors, so they buy cheap stocks (side with Buffett), while many traders and hedge funds prefer to follow the trend (side with Soros). Many quantitative and algorithmic-based investors will specifically buy value or trend stocks because they correspond to a certain type.</p><p><b>But as value stocks also become trend stocks, investor interest in low-valuation, strong-trend stocks is building up in large numbers.</b>This may push these stocks higher continuously, forming a stronger trend, which in turn will fuel the frenzy.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Value Stocks Return! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nValue Stocks Return! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1031387410\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d5f4b95db8404bba99942eba2fb10c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">弹道财经 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 19:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By David Eifrig, PhD</p><p>Abstract: Whether you agree with Buffett or Soros, you can grasp a kind of trading opportunity now, because it actually conforms to the ideas of these two bosses at the same time!</p><p><b>This article focuses on</b></p><p><b>1. Buffett VS Soros, who will you side with?</b></p><p><b>2. Value stocks are becoming trend stocks, and the two bosses reach the same goal by different routes?</b></p><p>Berry Research Statement: The views in this article are based on open market information and historical data. They are not used as direct investment suggestions and are for communication only. Welcome to leave a message to discuss related topics.</p><p><b>PART1</b></p><p><b>Buffett VS Soros, who will you side with?</b></p><p>In many cases, investors entering the market have to face a multiple-choice question, should they side with Buffett or Soros? Behind them are two sets of investment philosophies.</p><p>The success of investors Warren Buffett and George Soros is legendary. Whether Soros made $1 billion during the \"downfall of the Bank of England\" period, or Buffett got a 1550% return from Coca-Cola stock, they all have a brilliant record, which is a success that many people can hardly replicate.</p><p>But if investors intend to imitate the investment routines of these two legends, they usually can only choose one big man to follow. Because the views of these two investment tycoons on volatility and risk are diametrically opposite. Most of the time, investors either side with Buffett or Soros.</p><p><b>Buffett is known for his value investing, and he cautiously focuses on companies with strong fundamentals.</b>He is a long-term investor and is not good at speculative trading. In the long run, he has proven that his strategy works-his return on investment is enough to dump most speculators a few blocks.</p><p>Buffett famously said, \"Only when the tide goes out will you know who is swimming naked.\"</p><p>In other words, it is the bull market that provides cover for excessively risky bets. But if investors have been taking risks, but have not done their due diligence and are not adequately prepared for the decline, then investors will bear the brunt when the bubble bursts.</p><p><b>Contrary to Buffett, Soros likes to jump into strong market trends</b>(Translator's note: Trend investors, that is, what we often call chasing ups and killing downs), as he said in 2009: \"When I see a bubble form, I will buy quickly and add fuel to the fire.\"</p><p>In Soros's view, the speculative frenzy is not a red flag, but an opportunity. After the market breaks away from the fundamentals, they will continue to rise at an unprecedented rate, which is simply unimaginable with fixed earnings growth.</p><p>At times like this,<b>Soros's investment philosophy is to put aside fundamentals and invest according to investor sentiment.</b></p><p>It can be seen that from these two most successful investors in history, what we can see is diametrically opposite investment wisdom. Soros wants to swim naked until the last wave hits, while Buffett will say, Beware, you have to wear swimming trunks.</p><p>This is an essential problem lurking in investment.</p><p>When investors see some market signs, such as seeing that a trend is forming and funds are flowing, do they want to follow the trend and ride the wind and waves at this time? Or should we consider \"mean\" regression and bet on their true value? Most of the time, there is no unique correct answer to this multiple choice question.</p><p>For example, in the recent \"meme stock\" frenzy, some stocks, including struggling retailer GameStop (symbol: GME), have been completely out of touch with reality.</p><p>Maybe Soros will say that the market is too crazy and it's time to make big money, so he will find a relatively perfect trading opportunity for GameStop to aggravate the madness of this stock.</p><p>Buffett is the opposite. He might say that GameStop's price is ridiculous and unsustainable, and he would never get his hands on this stock.</p><p>As shown in the chart below, as of now, Soros's trading method is mostly correct. However, we are also convinced that Buffett's judgment will eventually be verified.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131badcea9697f37888f66d925cc5811\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But those crazy stocks aside,<b>At present, a factor is emerging in the market, giving investors the opportunity to take sides with Soros and Buffett at the same time. There are some types of stocks that may be favored by both the Soros camp and the Buffett camp.</b></p><p><b>PART2</b></p><p><b>Value stocks are becoming trend stocks, and the two big guys reach the same goal by different routes?</b></p><p>Value stocks are Buffett's favorite type of investment. Simply put, they refer to stocks with low valuations. They can usually<b>Use a lower price-to-book ratio as a judgment index.</b>Value investors typically explore stable investment opportunities in these stocks with solid but undervalued businesses.</p><p>Trend stocks mainly refer to those stocks whose prices continue to rise.<b>Generally speaking, they tend to generate positive high yields for 12 consecutive months.</b></p><p>The vast majority of the time, value investors and trend investors have opposite views on the market. Specifically:</p><p>The value school believes that if the price of a stock goes up, then its price becomes no longer cheap.</p><p>Trenders believe that if a stock is trading cheap, its price will usually continue to go lower.</p><p>And as the economy strengthens, the market begins to favor value stocks.<b>Value stocks also have the characteristics of trend stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39214033b136845c7cfca78cbb02174\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The opportunity could be huge.</p><p>Many investors and institutions on Wall Street identify themselves as value investors, so they buy cheap stocks (side with Buffett), while many traders and hedge funds prefer to follow the trend (side with Soros). Many quantitative and algorithmic-based investors will specifically buy value or trend stocks because they correspond to a certain type.</p><p><b>But as value stocks also become trend stocks, investor interest in low-valuation, strong-trend stocks is building up in large numbers.</b>This may push these stocks higher continuously, forming a stronger trend, which in turn will fuel the frenzy.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fabf9c2bc6a3d13c57438fc00bbe4f1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196342132","content_text":"作者：David Eifrig博士\n摘要：无论你认可巴菲特，还是认同索罗斯，现在都可以把握一类交易机会，因为它竟然同时符合这两位大佬的理念！\n本文聚焦\n1、巴菲特VS索罗斯，你会站队谁？\n2、价值股正成为趋势股，两位大佬殊途同归？\n贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据形成，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流，欢迎留言探讨相关话题。\nPART1\n巴菲特VS索罗斯，你会站队谁？\n在很多时候，进入市场的投资者都得面对一道选择题，是站队巴菲特还是站队索罗斯？他们背后代表的是两套投资哲学。\n投资家沃伦•巴菲特和乔治•索罗斯的成功都颇具传奇性。无论是索罗斯在“干倒英格兰银行”期间赚了10亿美元，还是巴菲特从可口可乐这只股票中获得了1550%的回报，都战绩赫赫，是很多人难以复制的成功。\n但如果投资者有意模仿这两位传奇人物的投资套路，通常只能选一个大佬来追随。因为，这两位投资大佬对波动性和风险的观点，是截然相反的。在大多数时候，投资者要么站队巴菲特阵营，要么站队索罗斯阵营。\n巴菲特以价值投资著称，他谨慎地专注于基本面强劲的公司。他是个长线投资者，不擅长做投机交易。长期来看，他已经证明了自己的策略是有效的——他的投资回报率足以甩大多数投机者几条街。\n巴菲特有句名言:“只有当潮水退去，你才会知道谁在裸泳。”\n换句话说，就是牛市给过度风险的押注提供了掩护。但如果投资者一直在冒险，却没有尽职做好调研，未对下跌做好充足的准备，那么在泡沫破裂时，投资者将会首当其冲。\n与巴菲特相反，索罗斯则喜欢投身强势的市场趋势中（译者注：趋势投资者，即我们常说的追涨杀跌），正如他在2009年所说的:“当我看到泡沫形成后，我就会赶紧买入，火上浇油一把。”\n在索罗斯看来，投机狂潮并不是一个危险信号，反而是一个机会。市场在脱离基本面后，它们还会以前所未有的速度继续上涨，这在盈利增长固定的情况下根本无法想象。\n在这种时候，索罗斯的投资哲学是抛开基本面，顺着投资者的情绪进行投资。\n由此可见，从这两位有史以来最成功的投资者身上，能看到的是截然相反的投资智慧。索罗斯想裸泳直至最后一波浪潮袭来，而巴菲特则会说，当心，你要穿好泳裤。\n这是潜藏在投资中的一个本质问题。\n当投资者看到一些市场苗头，比如看到趋势正在形成，资金正在流动，此时到底是要追随趋势、乘风破浪？还是该考虑“均值”回归，押注它们的真实价值？在大多数时候，这道选择题没有唯一正确的答案。\n比如在最近的“梗股（meme stock）”狂潮中，包括处境艰难的零售商GameStop (代码：GME)在内，一些股票已经完全脱离了现实。\n可能索罗斯会说市场太疯狂了，赚大钱的时机到了，于是他会找到GameStop相对完美的交易机会，来加剧这只股票的疯狂。\n而巴菲特则恰恰相反，他可能会说GameStop的价格是荒谬且不可持续的，他绝不会染指这种股票。\n如下图所示，截至目前，索罗斯的交易方法大部分是正确的。然而，我们也确信，巴菲特所持的判断，最终也会得到验证。\n\n但撇开那些疯狂的股票不谈，目前市场上正出现一个因素，让投资者有机会同时站队索罗斯和巴菲特。有一些类型的股票，可能同时得到索罗斯阵营和巴菲特阵营的青睐。\nPART2\n价值股正成为趋势股，两位大佬殊途同归？\n价值股是巴菲特最青睐的投资类型，简单来说，就是指估值较低的股票，它们通常可以用较低的市净率作为判断指标。价值投资者通常在这些业务稳固但被低估的股票中，发掘稳定的投资机会。\n而趋势股，则主要指那些价格不断上行的股票，通常来说，它们往往连续12个月为产生正的高收益率。\n绝大多数时候，价值投资者和趋势投资者对市场的看法是相反的。具体来说：\n价值派认为，如果一只股票的价格上涨了，那么它的价格就变得不再便宜。\n趋势派则认为，如果一只股票的交易价格很便宜，那么它的价格通常会继续走低。\n而随着经济走强，市场开始青睐价值股，价值股也有了趋势股的特征。\n\n这个机会可能是巨大的。\n华尔街的许多投资者和机构都自我认定是价值投资者，于是他们买入便宜的股票(站队巴菲特)，而许多交易者和对冲基金，则更喜欢跟随趋势(站队索罗斯)。许多基于量化和算法的投资者会专门买入价值股或趋势股，因为它们对应某个类型。\n但随着价值股也成为趋势股，投资者对低估值、强趋势的股票的兴趣正在大量集结。这或将推动这些股票持续走高，形成更强的趋势，进而助长狂热。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130356214,"gmtCreate":1621515127938,"gmtModify":1704358874764,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130356214","repostId":"2136317942","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198460945,"gmtCreate":1620981249687,"gmtModify":1704351484330,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198460945","repostId":"1100297334","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100297334","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620960560,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100297334?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-14 10:49","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Report card of real estate tycoons: Money is hard to earn, debt is hard to repay","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100297334","media":"凤凰WEEKLY财经","summary":"2021年刚刚过去的四个月里，碧桂园、万科、恒大、保利、融创这五个大房企，销售规模超过了1万亿。\n对于全年的目标，龙头房企不再像几年前一样高调渲染，毕竟在房地产行业的关键转折点，安全行驶大于天。\n恒大","content":"<p>In the past four months of 2021,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">Country Garden</a>, Vanke, Evergrande, Poly, Sunac, the five major real estate companies, with sales exceeding 1 trillion</b>。</p><p>For the full-year goals, leading real estate companies are no longer as high-profile as they were a few years ago. After all<b>At a critical turning point in the real estate industry, safe driving is greater than the sky</b>。</p><p>On the 20th anniversary of Evergrande, Xu Jiayin set a goal at a huge celebration. In 2020, Evergrande's total assets will exceed 3 trillion yuan, and its annual real estate sales will exceed 600 billion yuan.</p><p>It is said that there were 1,800 guests sitting in the audience at that time, including Hui Jiayin's \"noble people\" and the four major families in Hong Kong<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>Group Chairman Zheng Jiachun, Yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01105\">Sing Tao</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWS\">News Corp</a>Chairman Ho Chu Kwok, Yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Jack Ma, as well as Yang Guoqiang, chairman of Country Garden Group, and other political circles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">The financial world</a>, a group of big names in the real estate industry. Even the literary evening that night was broadcast live by many TV stations.</p><p>It was 2016, and Xu Jiayin's face was red. Evergrande defeats Vanke and sits on<b>The world's number one real estate company</b>The matter of returning to A through a backdoor deep house was also put on the agenda at the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bac52f2402d1960987bd2ae44736268\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2016 may be the best time for real estate in recent years.</p><p>That year, many benchmark real estate companies spent a record high on land, and the sales of the top 100 real estate companies increased by 53% year-on-year. Later, on a public occasion,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01918\">Sunac China</a>Sun Hongbin, chairman of the board of directors, said that when land is cheap, money is expensive, and when money is expensive, land is cheap. Only in 2016, both money and land are cheap. At this time, we must seize the opportunity</b>。</p><p>Many real estate companies seized this opportunity, and it was in the two or three years after that that dark horses tasted \"<b>To death the bold, to death the timid</b>\"The taste of happiness, the sound of the charge horn is so loud that you can't hear clearly\" House lives, not speculation \".</p><p>They didn't realize that those capital levers that jumped higher and higher would become a mountain in 2020, squeezing those huge bubbles.</p><p>In the second half of last year, the regulatory authorities successively pulled out<b>Three Swords of \"Three Red Lines, Centralized Loan Management and Double Concentration of Land\"</b>, hanging over the heads of all real estate companies. They don't have a choice, either grit their teeth and flip over or get out.</p><p><b>Evergrande, which still had more than 100 billion cash in hand in 2016, did not have total assets exceeding 3 trillion in 2020. In September, it was also caught in rumors of a break in the capital chain, and the return to A-shares was also blown up.</b></p><p>A group of large-scale real estate companies are struggling with financial difficulties, while another group is flooded with debt.</p><p>Vanke used \"2020 is the end of an era and the beginning of an era\" as the opening chapter in its annual report.<b>Vanke Group Chairman of the Board of Directors Yu Liang Yu Liang</b>Said at the results conference, \"<b>Opportunities are no longer at your fingertips</b>”。</p><p>The special year 2020 proves the firmness of \"housing is for living, not for speculation\". For developers, the road is not as clear as before. How to get through this period of industry adjustment has become a judgment question related to survival, black and white. But, after crossing the hill, what is it?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66f9e0d5a7ded9b9433251f10c9383f9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Money, the hardest to earn</b></p><p>After August 26th, 2016, the phrase \"Xiamen is crazy\" was copied and pasted on many occasions.</p><p>There is a \"Price Forecast Chart of Xiamen Property Market in the Next Year after the 8.26 Auction\" circulating on the Internet, and the house price in some areas after one year jumped directly from more than 10,000 to 40,000.</p><p>That year's Hurun Global House Price Increase List,<b>Xiamen's house price increased by 45.5%, ranking second in the world, followed by Hefei, with an increase of 48.4%.</b>。 The super price increase expectation has given real estate companies the courage to do whatever it takes. The name of the land king includes Vanke, Poly, Sunac, Rongqiao, Tahoe, Rongxin, Yuzhou and other real estate companies of different sizes.</p><p>The truth is,<b>When these land king projects are listed one after another in 2019-2020, most of them will lose money</b>。 8.26 Rongqiao Group, one of the land kings, won a plot of land in Xiang'an District, Xiamen for a total price of 4.218 billion yuan. The floor price was 38,345 yuan/㎡, with a premium rate of 140%. When the market opened in March 2019, the average price was only sold to 37,500 yuan/㎡.</p><p>This situation not only happens in Xiamen, but also Hefei and Nanjing are the hardest hit areas. As Sun Hongbin said, when money is cheap and land is cheap, everyone wants to seize the opportunity.</p><p><b>At that time, no one predicted that the next real estate regulation would last for so long and be so strong.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0205eaf7eaae908fc8dfb84c7c20fb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The original plan to have your cake and eat it too has turned into the lesser of two evils,<b>Only by sacrificing profits to ensure sales can we obtain valuable funds and \"survive\". \"Live\"</b>, this is the keyword of Yu Liang, chairman of Vanke's board of directors, in the autumn of 2018, and it has become the real state of the real estate industry after 2019.</p><p>According to statistics from the Middle Index Research Institute,<b>Annual Report 2020</b>, the sales scale of the top 100 companies exceeded 10 trillion yuan, and the total sales and sales area increased by 12.8% and 11.6% respectively year-on-year. Judging from the data,<b>The revenue and net profit of the top 100 companies maintained growth, but the average net profit margin and return on net assets (ROE) decreased by 0.7 and 1.0 percentage points year-on-year respectively.</b></p><p>Ping An Securities' report confirms this trend.<b>In 2020, the revenue of A-share listed real estate companies increased by 10.9% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 15.6% year-on-year.</b>，<b>The growth rate decreased by 9.1 and 27.2 percentage points respectively compared with 2019</b>。 As high-priced land from 2017 to 2018 is gradually carried forward, listed real estate companies in 2020<b>The overall gross profit margin fell by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year</b>。</p><p>Even for leading real estate companies that are more resistant to risks, various profit indicators will inevitably decline.</p><p>wind data shows that,<b>From 2018 to 2020, the gross profit margins of Country Garden, Evergrande, Vanke, and Sunac have all declined year by year</b>Except for Evergrande, the other three companies were clearly reflected last year.</p><p><b>It's almost the same trend on return on equity (ROE)</b>, especially Evergrande, whose return on net assets fell to single digits last year, only 5.52%. This indicator was 12.4% and 30.18% in 2019 and 2018 respectively.</p><p>The sales in exchange for squeezing profits are also much worse than the growth rate of previous years.</p><p>Although Country Garden, Evergrande, and Vanke have all exceeded 700 billion in full scale, and Sunac and Poly have all exceeded 500 billion, the story behind it is,<b>Evergrande failed to achieve the 800 billion internal sales target, Sunac was more than 20 billion short of the 600 billion target, and it took Poly more than a year to cross 500 billion</b>。</p><p>Of course, this is an achievement achieved under multiple pressures such as the superimposed regulation of the epidemic. For real estate companies, it is not easy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac93aac14ca536de99c6e7a7bd4ddf3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Debt, the hardest to repay</b></p><p>If we have to find a key turning point for the collective turn of the real estate market, it will be the new financing regulations of \"three red lines\" circulated online in August 2020.</p><p>In fact, as early as 2018, many leading real estate companies had already realized the changes in the market direction, and stepped on the brakes one after another, stating that they would reduce their debts, no longer pursue scale, and want high-quality development.</p><p>However, no matter how sufficient the psychological construction is, when the ultimatum comes, you will be caught off guard.</p><p>In August last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the central bank held a symposium in Beijing with 12 key real estate companies including Country Garden, Evergrande, Vanke, and Sunac. At this meeting, regulators held<b>Three red lines</b>Take it out.</p><p>After excluding advance receipts, the asset-liability ratio is greater than 70%, the net debt ratio is greater than 100%, and the cash-to-short-term debt ratio is less than 1 times. Every time one of these three indicators is stepped on, the ceiling of the growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities will be 5% lower. If all three indicators are stepped on, the interest-bearing liabilities will not increase. Even if one is not stepped on, it will increase by up to 15% every year. There is only more than 4 months left for real estate companies, and it will be implemented on January 1, 2021.</p><p>For real estate in a typical high-debt industry, it is<b>A bolt from the blue</b>Not excessive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/008c088e739868e777c107f9573db850\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At that time, Guosheng Securities made calculations based on the \"three red lines\" standard. Based on the data at the end of 2019, among the top 50 real estate companies in terms of sales, 11 did not exceed the warning line, and 15 companies exceeded 1 warning line. There are 8 companies with more than 2 warning lines, and 15 companies with more than 3 warning lines.</p><p>The 12 companies that participated in the conference together, Evergrande, Sunac, Greenland,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02772\">Zhongliang Holdings</a>All three red lines are stepped on.</p><p>After the annual reports were released one after another, these three indicators of many real estate companies have improved, from accelerating sales to acquiring less land, coupled with bond issuance, private placement, and various financial methods.<b>In the past five months, in order to reduce debt, real estate companies have been struggling</b>。</p><p>But not all pitfalls have ways to make up for them.</p><p>On the last day of April,<b>Many media backstages have received a message from 1 million Tahoe owners, the building they bought is unfinished, and there is no progress</b>However, in Tahoe's annual report, the actual completion progress reached 86.57%. \"I just ask you to go to the field for interviews and investigations before writing and publishing the manuscript to understand the truth of the matter.\"</p><p>According to Tahoe's annual report, operating income in 2020 is 3.615 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84.7%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was-4.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1171.83%;</p><p>The top 20 real estate companies with annual sales exceeding 100 billion have fallen into a serious debt crisis, with high leverage and high premium<b>\"Land King Harvester\" finally harvested itself</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8430ba75e6e897473815a4e97992cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Sichuan-based 100 billion real estate enterprises<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600466\">Blu-ray development</a></b>Liu Xu (a pseudonym), a staff member in a certain area, has been listening to colleagues exchanging the latest progress of their \"acquisition\" every day at work recently, and they discuss various possibilities of a new owner. \"<b>Whether it is Sunac or OCT, which one is better than now</b>”。</p><p>On April 7th, Liu Xu was even a little disappointed when he heard the top management say that \"the controlling stake of the company will not be sold\". Should he look for other companies? He considered his way out.</p><p>It is also a partner who rushes forward blindfolded. After the wind direction of the real estate changes, it shows its original shape as the tide fades. After selling its biomedical and property sectors one after another, Blu-ray is trying to make the ending less sad.</p><p><b>A lever can carry a boat or overturn it</b>Many real estate companies only really understood the truth last year.</p><p><b>The road ahead is the most difficult to judge</b></p><p>At the 2018 interim results conference, Sun Hongbin said, \"There is no need to diversify if the main business is done well. Only companies with problems can diversify.\"</p><p>Although Big Brother Vanke didn't say so \"online celebrity\", he expressed a similar meaning almost at the same time, with \"survival\" as the ultimate goal, and the specific business operations were \"convergence\" and \"focus\".</p><p>That year, Country Garden began to enter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>In the industry, Evergrande is preparing to \"build cars\", and then has invested in countless small goals.</p><p>but<b>Two years later, everyone is on the same path</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5912022b0543f14fcee208b525f1e9a\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Sun Hongbin</b>He was busy talking with government officials in many places about cultural tourism, medical care and health care, and also developed the conference and exhibition sector through large-scale acquisitions. The properties that were said to be not listed also landed on the Hong Kong stock market last year with the tide.<b>In the end, he lived the way he had disdained</b>。</p><p><b>Vanke also began to disclose diversified transcripts in financial reports</b>, the development speed is visible, but compared with the main real estate business, which accounts for more than 95%, it is really insignificant.</p><p>Not only Vanke, but also real estate companies that are looking for the \"second curve\" of growth when they predict changes in the real estate atmosphere. At present, this is the case.</p><p><b>Country Garden's robots are getting quieter and quieter</b>, just occasionally publish some data on how many patents, how many doctors, and some small videos and photos of robots walking around in their own \"experimental field\".</p><p><b>Evergrande's cars are booming, and its stock price continues to hit new highs</b>, before a car has been built, it is planned to achieve production and sales of 1 million vehicles within 4 years-2025 and 5 million vehicles in 2035. The goal is the world's largest and most powerful new energy vehicle group.</p><p>The point is,<b>Xu Jiayin, who once said that \"the real estate industry will always be a sunrise industry for Evergrande\", announced in 2021 that he would become a world-class technology company</b>。</p><p>Whether they want it or not, there are many difficulties or not, and the road ahead is bumpy or not, leading real estate companies have stepped on the road of diversification. This may be interpreted from another angle. The road of real estate will not be more simple than those.</p><p>Many people working in real estate companies sigh first when talking about the future, and their words reveal infinite pessimism. \"<b>The general trend is gone</b>\", more than one person used the word.</p><p>For a person who is climbing a hill with difficulty, it is difficult to predict whether it will be a higher mountain or a wider road after crossing the hill.</p><p>Only outsiders can see it.</p><p>In March,<b>Ren Zeping, a well-known economist who was hired by Xu Jiayin for 15 million a year, has returned to the capital market</b>, his identity changed from chief economist of Evergrande Group and president of Evergrande Economic Research Institute to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Soochow Securities</a>Chief economist, the annual salary is much less.</p><p>“<b>Real estate depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. \"</b>This \"law\" was put forward by him.</p><p>At the first macro strategy report meeting in April, he said,<b>Real estate is the hardest bubble of China's economy</b>。</p><p>\"The fundamental problem of China's real estate is the mismatch between people and land and the past excessive currency issuance.\"</p><p>And he believes that there is still a solution to all this. \"We still have a time window of the last ten years.\"</p>","source":"lsy1598401734913","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Report card of real estate tycoons: Money is hard to earn, debt is hard to repay</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReport card of real estate tycoons: Money is hard to earn, debt is hard to repay\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">凤凰WEEKLY财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 10:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the past four months of 2021,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">Country Garden</a>, Vanke, Evergrande, Poly, Sunac, the five major real estate companies, with sales exceeding 1 trillion</b>。</p><p>For the full-year goals, leading real estate companies are no longer as high-profile as they were a few years ago. After all<b>At a critical turning point in the real estate industry, safe driving is greater than the sky</b>。</p><p>On the 20th anniversary of Evergrande, Xu Jiayin set a goal at a huge celebration. In 2020, Evergrande's total assets will exceed 3 trillion yuan, and its annual real estate sales will exceed 600 billion yuan.</p><p>It is said that there were 1,800 guests sitting in the audience at that time, including Hui Jiayin's \"noble people\" and the four major families in Hong Kong<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>Group Chairman Zheng Jiachun, Yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01105\">Sing Tao</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWS\">News Corp</a>Chairman Ho Chu Kwok, Yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Jack Ma, as well as Yang Guoqiang, chairman of Country Garden Group, and other political circles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">The financial world</a>, a group of big names in the real estate industry. Even the literary evening that night was broadcast live by many TV stations.</p><p>It was 2016, and Xu Jiayin's face was red. Evergrande defeats Vanke and sits on<b>The world's number one real estate company</b>The matter of returning to A through a backdoor deep house was also put on the agenda at the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bac52f2402d1960987bd2ae44736268\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2016 may be the best time for real estate in recent years.</p><p>That year, many benchmark real estate companies spent a record high on land, and the sales of the top 100 real estate companies increased by 53% year-on-year. Later, on a public occasion,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01918\">Sunac China</a>Sun Hongbin, chairman of the board of directors, said that when land is cheap, money is expensive, and when money is expensive, land is cheap. Only in 2016, both money and land are cheap. At this time, we must seize the opportunity</b>。</p><p>Many real estate companies seized this opportunity, and it was in the two or three years after that that dark horses tasted \"<b>To death the bold, to death the timid</b>\"The taste of happiness, the sound of the charge horn is so loud that you can't hear clearly\" House lives, not speculation \".</p><p>They didn't realize that those capital levers that jumped higher and higher would become a mountain in 2020, squeezing those huge bubbles.</p><p>In the second half of last year, the regulatory authorities successively pulled out<b>Three Swords of \"Three Red Lines, Centralized Loan Management and Double Concentration of Land\"</b>, hanging over the heads of all real estate companies. They don't have a choice, either grit their teeth and flip over or get out.</p><p><b>Evergrande, which still had more than 100 billion cash in hand in 2016, did not have total assets exceeding 3 trillion in 2020. In September, it was also caught in rumors of a break in the capital chain, and the return to A-shares was also blown up.</b></p><p>A group of large-scale real estate companies are struggling with financial difficulties, while another group is flooded with debt.</p><p>Vanke used \"2020 is the end of an era and the beginning of an era\" as the opening chapter in its annual report.<b>Vanke Group Chairman of the Board of Directors Yu Liang Yu Liang</b>Said at the results conference, \"<b>Opportunities are no longer at your fingertips</b>”。</p><p>The special year 2020 proves the firmness of \"housing is for living, not for speculation\". For developers, the road is not as clear as before. How to get through this period of industry adjustment has become a judgment question related to survival, black and white. But, after crossing the hill, what is it?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66f9e0d5a7ded9b9433251f10c9383f9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Money, the hardest to earn</b></p><p>After August 26th, 2016, the phrase \"Xiamen is crazy\" was copied and pasted on many occasions.</p><p>There is a \"Price Forecast Chart of Xiamen Property Market in the Next Year after the 8.26 Auction\" circulating on the Internet, and the house price in some areas after one year jumped directly from more than 10,000 to 40,000.</p><p>That year's Hurun Global House Price Increase List,<b>Xiamen's house price increased by 45.5%, ranking second in the world, followed by Hefei, with an increase of 48.4%.</b>。 The super price increase expectation has given real estate companies the courage to do whatever it takes. The name of the land king includes Vanke, Poly, Sunac, Rongqiao, Tahoe, Rongxin, Yuzhou and other real estate companies of different sizes.</p><p>The truth is,<b>When these land king projects are listed one after another in 2019-2020, most of them will lose money</b>。 8.26 Rongqiao Group, one of the land kings, won a plot of land in Xiang'an District, Xiamen for a total price of 4.218 billion yuan. The floor price was 38,345 yuan/㎡, with a premium rate of 140%. When the market opened in March 2019, the average price was only sold to 37,500 yuan/㎡.</p><p>This situation not only happens in Xiamen, but also Hefei and Nanjing are the hardest hit areas. As Sun Hongbin said, when money is cheap and land is cheap, everyone wants to seize the opportunity.</p><p><b>At that time, no one predicted that the next real estate regulation would last for so long and be so strong.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0205eaf7eaae908fc8dfb84c7c20fb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The original plan to have your cake and eat it too has turned into the lesser of two evils,<b>Only by sacrificing profits to ensure sales can we obtain valuable funds and \"survive\". \"Live\"</b>, this is the keyword of Yu Liang, chairman of Vanke's board of directors, in the autumn of 2018, and it has become the real state of the real estate industry after 2019.</p><p>According to statistics from the Middle Index Research Institute,<b>Annual Report 2020</b>, the sales scale of the top 100 companies exceeded 10 trillion yuan, and the total sales and sales area increased by 12.8% and 11.6% respectively year-on-year. Judging from the data,<b>The revenue and net profit of the top 100 companies maintained growth, but the average net profit margin and return on net assets (ROE) decreased by 0.7 and 1.0 percentage points year-on-year respectively.</b></p><p>Ping An Securities' report confirms this trend.<b>In 2020, the revenue of A-share listed real estate companies increased by 10.9% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 15.6% year-on-year.</b>，<b>The growth rate decreased by 9.1 and 27.2 percentage points respectively compared with 2019</b>。 As high-priced land from 2017 to 2018 is gradually carried forward, listed real estate companies in 2020<b>The overall gross profit margin fell by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year</b>。</p><p>Even for leading real estate companies that are more resistant to risks, various profit indicators will inevitably decline.</p><p>wind data shows that,<b>From 2018 to 2020, the gross profit margins of Country Garden, Evergrande, Vanke, and Sunac have all declined year by year</b>Except for Evergrande, the other three companies were clearly reflected last year.</p><p><b>It's almost the same trend on return on equity (ROE)</b>, especially Evergrande, whose return on net assets fell to single digits last year, only 5.52%. This indicator was 12.4% and 30.18% in 2019 and 2018 respectively.</p><p>The sales in exchange for squeezing profits are also much worse than the growth rate of previous years.</p><p>Although Country Garden, Evergrande, and Vanke have all exceeded 700 billion in full scale, and Sunac and Poly have all exceeded 500 billion, the story behind it is,<b>Evergrande failed to achieve the 800 billion internal sales target, Sunac was more than 20 billion short of the 600 billion target, and it took Poly more than a year to cross 500 billion</b>。</p><p>Of course, this is an achievement achieved under multiple pressures such as the superimposed regulation of the epidemic. For real estate companies, it is not easy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac93aac14ca536de99c6e7a7bd4ddf3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Debt, the hardest to repay</b></p><p>If we have to find a key turning point for the collective turn of the real estate market, it will be the new financing regulations of \"three red lines\" circulated online in August 2020.</p><p>In fact, as early as 2018, many leading real estate companies had already realized the changes in the market direction, and stepped on the brakes one after another, stating that they would reduce their debts, no longer pursue scale, and want high-quality development.</p><p>However, no matter how sufficient the psychological construction is, when the ultimatum comes, you will be caught off guard.</p><p>In August last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the central bank held a symposium in Beijing with 12 key real estate companies including Country Garden, Evergrande, Vanke, and Sunac. At this meeting, regulators held<b>Three red lines</b>Take it out.</p><p>After excluding advance receipts, the asset-liability ratio is greater than 70%, the net debt ratio is greater than 100%, and the cash-to-short-term debt ratio is less than 1 times. Every time one of these three indicators is stepped on, the ceiling of the growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities will be 5% lower. If all three indicators are stepped on, the interest-bearing liabilities will not increase. Even if one is not stepped on, it will increase by up to 15% every year. There is only more than 4 months left for real estate companies, and it will be implemented on January 1, 2021.</p><p>For real estate in a typical high-debt industry, it is<b>A bolt from the blue</b>Not excessive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/008c088e739868e777c107f9573db850\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At that time, Guosheng Securities made calculations based on the \"three red lines\" standard. Based on the data at the end of 2019, among the top 50 real estate companies in terms of sales, 11 did not exceed the warning line, and 15 companies exceeded 1 warning line. There are 8 companies with more than 2 warning lines, and 15 companies with more than 3 warning lines.</p><p>The 12 companies that participated in the conference together, Evergrande, Sunac, Greenland,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02772\">Zhongliang Holdings</a>All three red lines are stepped on.</p><p>After the annual reports were released one after another, these three indicators of many real estate companies have improved, from accelerating sales to acquiring less land, coupled with bond issuance, private placement, and various financial methods.<b>In the past five months, in order to reduce debt, real estate companies have been struggling</b>。</p><p>But not all pitfalls have ways to make up for them.</p><p>On the last day of April,<b>Many media backstages have received a message from 1 million Tahoe owners, the building they bought is unfinished, and there is no progress</b>However, in Tahoe's annual report, the actual completion progress reached 86.57%. \"I just ask you to go to the field for interviews and investigations before writing and publishing the manuscript to understand the truth of the matter.\"</p><p>According to Tahoe's annual report, operating income in 2020 is 3.615 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84.7%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was-4.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1171.83%;</p><p>The top 20 real estate companies with annual sales exceeding 100 billion have fallen into a serious debt crisis, with high leverage and high premium<b>\"Land King Harvester\" finally harvested itself</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8430ba75e6e897473815a4e97992cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Sichuan-based 100 billion real estate enterprises<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600466\">Blu-ray development</a></b>Liu Xu (a pseudonym), a staff member in a certain area, has been listening to colleagues exchanging the latest progress of their \"acquisition\" every day at work recently, and they discuss various possibilities of a new owner. \"<b>Whether it is Sunac or OCT, which one is better than now</b>”。</p><p>On April 7th, Liu Xu was even a little disappointed when he heard the top management say that \"the controlling stake of the company will not be sold\". Should he look for other companies? He considered his way out.</p><p>It is also a partner who rushes forward blindfolded. After the wind direction of the real estate changes, it shows its original shape as the tide fades. After selling its biomedical and property sectors one after another, Blu-ray is trying to make the ending less sad.</p><p><b>A lever can carry a boat or overturn it</b>Many real estate companies only really understood the truth last year.</p><p><b>The road ahead is the most difficult to judge</b></p><p>At the 2018 interim results conference, Sun Hongbin said, \"There is no need to diversify if the main business is done well. Only companies with problems can diversify.\"</p><p>Although Big Brother Vanke didn't say so \"online celebrity\", he expressed a similar meaning almost at the same time, with \"survival\" as the ultimate goal, and the specific business operations were \"convergence\" and \"focus\".</p><p>That year, Country Garden began to enter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>In the industry, Evergrande is preparing to \"build cars\", and then has invested in countless small goals.</p><p>but<b>Two years later, everyone is on the same path</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5912022b0543f14fcee208b525f1e9a\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Sun Hongbin</b>He was busy talking with government officials in many places about cultural tourism, medical care and health care, and also developed the conference and exhibition sector through large-scale acquisitions. The properties that were said to be not listed also landed on the Hong Kong stock market last year with the tide.<b>In the end, he lived the way he had disdained</b>。</p><p><b>Vanke also began to disclose diversified transcripts in financial reports</b>, the development speed is visible, but compared with the main real estate business, which accounts for more than 95%, it is really insignificant.</p><p>Not only Vanke, but also real estate companies that are looking for the \"second curve\" of growth when they predict changes in the real estate atmosphere. At present, this is the case.</p><p><b>Country Garden's robots are getting quieter and quieter</b>, just occasionally publish some data on how many patents, how many doctors, and some small videos and photos of robots walking around in their own \"experimental field\".</p><p><b>Evergrande's cars are booming, and its stock price continues to hit new highs</b>, before a car has been built, it is planned to achieve production and sales of 1 million vehicles within 4 years-2025 and 5 million vehicles in 2035. The goal is the world's largest and most powerful new energy vehicle group.</p><p>The point is,<b>Xu Jiayin, who once said that \"the real estate industry will always be a sunrise industry for Evergrande\", announced in 2021 that he would become a world-class technology company</b>。</p><p>Whether they want it or not, there are many difficulties or not, and the road ahead is bumpy or not, leading real estate companies have stepped on the road of diversification. This may be interpreted from another angle. The road of real estate will not be more simple than those.</p><p>Many people working in real estate companies sigh first when talking about the future, and their words reveal infinite pessimism. \"<b>The general trend is gone</b>\", more than one person used the word.</p><p>For a person who is climbing a hill with difficulty, it is difficult to predict whether it will be a higher mountain or a wider road after crossing the hill.</p><p>Only outsiders can see it.</p><p>In March,<b>Ren Zeping, a well-known economist who was hired by Xu Jiayin for 15 million a year, has returned to the capital market</b>, his identity changed from chief economist of Evergrande Group and president of Evergrande Economic Research Institute to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Soochow Securities</a>Chief economist, the annual salary is much less.</p><p>“<b>Real estate depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. \"</b>This \"law\" was put forward by him.</p><p>At the first macro strategy report meeting in April, he said,<b>Real estate is the hardest bubble of China's economy</b>。</p><p>\"The fundamental problem of China's real estate is the mismatch between people and land and the past excessive currency issuance.\"</p><p>And he believes that there is still a solution to all this. \"We still have a time window of the last ten years.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/x8YRg4e1Qo0C2q6RAi_2SA\">凤凰WEEKLY财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00b7d70423af402de8fcef957dcb2900","relate_stocks":{"600048":"保利发展","03333":"中国恒大","02007":"碧桂园","000002":"万科A","01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/x8YRg4e1Qo0C2q6RAi_2SA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100297334","content_text":"2021年刚刚过去的四个月里，碧桂园、万科、恒大、保利、融创这五个大房企，销售规模超过了1万亿。\n对于全年的目标，龙头房企不再像几年前一样高调渲染，毕竟在房地产行业的关键转折点，安全行驶大于天。\n恒大20周年的时候，许家印在声势浩大的庆典上立下目标，2020年恒大总资产超3万亿，房地产年销售规模超6000亿。\n据说当时台下坐着1800位嘉宾，有许家印的“贵人”、香港四大家族新世界集团主席郑家纯，有星岛新闻集团主席何柱国，有阿里巴巴马云，还有碧桂园集团主席杨国强等等政界、金融界、地产界的一众大佬。就连那晚的文艺晚会，很多卫视都直播了。\n那是2016年，许家印满面红光。恒大打下万科，坐上世界第一房企的宝座，借壳深深房回A的事也在年底提上了日程。\n\n2016年或许是这几年房地产最好的时候。\n那一年，不少标杆房企砸在土地上的钱创出历年新高，百强房企的销售额同比增长了53%。后来的一次公开场合，融创中国董事会主席孙宏斌说，地便宜的时候钱贵，钱贵的时候地便宜，只有2016年，钱和地都便宜，这个时候要抓住机会。\n这个机会很多房企抓住了，正是在那之后的两三年时间，黑马们尝到了“撑死胆大的，饿死胆小的”的幸福滋味，冲锋号的声音大到听不清“房住不炒”。\n他们并没有意识到，那些越跳越高的资金杠杆，会在2020年变成一座山，把那些巨大的泡沫挤破。\n去年下半年，监管部门一连拔出了“三道红线、贷款集中管理、土地双集中”三把利剑，悬在所有房企的头顶。他们没有选择，要么咬牙翻过去，要么出局。\n2016年手里还有超过千亿现金的恒大，在2020年总资产并没有超过3万亿，还在9月陷入资金链断裂传闻，回A股的事也吹了。\n一批规模房企在资金困境中挣扎，另外一批被债务淹没。\n万科在年报中用了“2020年是一个时代的落幕，也是一个时代的开启”作为开篇，万科集团董事会主席郁亮郁亮在业绩发布会上说，“机会不再是唾手可得”。\n特殊的2020年证明了“房住不炒”的坚定。对于开发商来说，路途不似以往明朗。如何渡过这一段行业调整期，成为一道关乎存亡的判断题，非黑即白。只是，越过山丘之后，又是什么呢？\n\n钱，最难赚\n2016年8月26日过后，“厦门疯了”这句话，被复制粘贴在很多场合。\n网上流传了一幅“8.26土拍后，厦门楼市未来1年价格预测图”，有区域一年后的房价，直接从1万多跳到4万。\n那一年的胡润全球房价涨幅榜，厦门房价涨幅45.5%排在全球第二，第一是合肥，涨幅48.4%。超强的涨价预期给了房企们不惜代价的勇气，地王的名字里包含了万科、保利、融创、融侨、泰禾、融信、禹洲等规模不等的房企。\n事实是，等到2019-2020年这些地王项目陆续上市的时候，绝大部分都是赔钱的。8.26地王之一的融侨集团以总价42.18亿元拿下的厦门翔安区一地块，楼面价38345元/㎡，溢价率140%，在2019年3月开盘时均价只卖到37500元/㎡。\n这种情况不只发生在厦门，合肥、南京也是重灾区。就像孙宏斌说的，钱也便宜、地也便宜的时候，大家都想抓住机会。\n当时并没有人预估到接下来开始的地产调控会持续这么久，力度这么大。\n\n原本鱼和熊掌都想兼得的打算，变成了两害相权取其轻，牺牲利润保证销量，才能获得宝贵的资金，才能“活下去”。“活下去”，这是万科董事局主席郁亮在2018年秋天的主题词，2019年以后变成房地产行业的真实状态。\n中指研究院统计，2020年，百强企业销售规模超10万亿，销售总额、销售面积同比分别增长了12.8%和11.6%。从数据来看，百强企业营收与净利润保持增长，但净利润率、净资产收益率（ROE）均值分别同比降低了0.7、1.0个百分点。\n平安证券的报告印证着这样的趋势，2020年A股上市房企营收同比增长10.9%，归母净利润同比下降15.6%，增速比2019年分别下降9.1个、27.2个百分点。随着2017-2018年高价地陆续结转，2020年上市房企整体毛利率同比降了4.6个百分点。\n即便是更能抵抗风险的龙头房企，各项盈利指标也不可避免地走向滑坡。\nwind数据显示，2018-2020年碧桂园、恒大、万科、融创毛利率都逐年下滑，除了恒大，其他三家都在去年有明显体现。\n净资产收益率（ROE）方面几乎是同样的趋势，尤其是恒大，去年净资产收益率跌至个位数，仅5.52%，这一指标在2019年、2018年分别是12.4%和30.18%。\n挤压利润换来的销售额，跟前几年的增速也差了不少。\n虽然碧桂园、恒大、万科全口径都超过了7000亿，融创和保利都超过了5000亿，但背后的故事是，恒大没完成8000亿内部销售目标，融创距离6000亿目标差了200多亿，保利跨过5000亿多花了一年。\n当然，这是在疫情叠加调控等多重压力下实现的成绩，对于房企们来说，已经很不容易。\n\n债，最难还\n如果非要给房地产市场集体转向找一个关键的转折，那便是2020年8月网传的“三道红线”融资新规。\n其实早在2018年，多家龙头房企就已经意识到市场风向的变化，纷纷踩下刹车，表态要把负债降下来，不再追求规模，要高质量发展。\n但是再充分的心理建设，在最后通牒到来的时候，也会措手不及。\n去年8月，住建部和央行在北京跟碧桂园、恒大、万科、融创等12家重点房企开了一次座谈会，这次会上，监管层把三道红线拿了出来。\n剔除预收款后的资产负债率大于70%、净负债率大于100%、现金短债比小于1倍，这三项指标，每踩一条，有息负债增速的天花板就低5%，三条全踩，有息负债就不能增加，即使是一条不踩，每年也最多增15%。留给房企的时间只有4个多月，2021年1月1日就推行。\n这对于典型的高负债行业房地产来讲，说是晴天霹雳并不过分。\n\n当时国盛证券按“三道红线”标准做过测算，以2019年末数据为基准，销售排名前50位的房地产企业中，均未超过警戒线的有11家，超过1条警戒线的有15家，超过2条警戒线的有8家，超过3条警戒线的有15家。\n一起参会的那12家企业，恒大、融创、绿地、中梁控股都是三道红线全踩。\n年报陆续发布后，多家房企的这三项指标有所改善，从加快销售，到少拿地，加上发债、定向增发，还有各种财务手法，过去的5个月内，为了降负债，房企们伤透了脑筋。\n但并不是所有的坑，都有办法弥补。\n4月的最后一天，不少媒体的后台都收到了一份100万泰禾业主的留言，他们买的楼烂尾了，并没有任何进展，但在泰禾的年报中现实完工进度却达86.57%，“只求您写稿、发稿前，去实地采访调查，了解事情真相。”\n根据泰禾的年报，2020年营业收入是36.15亿元，同比下降84.7%；归属上市公司股东的净利润为-49.99亿元，同比下降1171.83%；\n曾经年销售超千亿的20强房企，陷入严重的债务危机，高杠杆、高溢价的“地王收割机”，最终收割了自己。\n\n川系千亿房企蓝光发展某区域的工作人员刘旭（化名），最近每天上班都在听同事们交换着他们“被收购”的最新进展，他们讨论着新东家的各种可能，“不管是融创还是华侨城，哪个都比现在好”。\n4月7日，听到高层说“不会出让公司控股权”，刘旭甚至有点失望，要不要找找其他公司呢？他考虑着自己的出路。\n同样是蒙眼往前冲的伙伴，在地产的风向变换后，随着潮水的褪去现出原形。在陆续把旗下的生物医药和物业板块卖掉后，蓝光正在试着让结局不那么悲伤。\n杠杆能载舟亦能覆舟的道理，很多房企在去年才真正明白。\n前路，最难判断\n2018年中期业绩发布会上，孙宏斌说了一句，“主业做得好没有必要多元化，有问题的公司才做多元化呢。”\n老大哥万科虽然说得没有这么“网红”，但几乎在同一时段，表达了类似的意思，以“活下去”为最终目标，具体的业务操作是“收敛”和“聚焦”。\n那一年，碧桂园开始进军机器人行业，恒大准备“造车”，然后分别把数不清的小目标投了进去。\n但是两年后，大家走上了同一条道路。\n\n孙宏斌忙于跟多个地方的政府官员谈文旅、医疗康养，还通过大笔收购发展出会议会展的板块，说过不上市的物业，也在去年随着大潮登陆港股，最终，他活成了自己当初不屑的样子。\n万科也开始在财报中披露多元化的成绩单，发展速度可见，但跟占据超过95%的房地产主业相比，实在微不足道。\n不止是万科，在预感到房地产氛围变化的时候寻找增长“第二曲线”的房企们，目前来看都是如此。\n碧桂园的机器人动静越来越小，只是偶尔发布一些多少项专利、多少名博士的数据，和一些机器人在自己的”试验田“里走来走去的小视频、照片。\n恒大的汽车倒是风生水起，股价不断创新高，一辆车还没有造出来的情况下，准备在4年内——2025年实现产销100万辆，2035年产销500万辆，目标是世界规模最大、实力最强的新能源汽车集团。\n重点是，曾经说“房地产业对恒大来说永远是朝阳产业”的许家印，在2021年宣布要做世界一流科技企业。\n无论他们想或不想，困难多不多，前路坎坷不坎坷，多元化这条路，龙头房企们都踩了下去，这或许能从另一个角度解读，地产这条路，不会比那些简单。\n不少在房企工作的人，在谈起未来的时候，都先叹一口气，言语中透露出无限悲观，“大势已去”，不止一个人用了这个词。\n对于一个正在艰难爬坡的人，很难预料越过山丘以后，是更高的山，还是更广阔的路。\n只有局外人看得见。\n今年3月，曾经让许家印每年花1500万挖来的知名经济学家任泽平，重新回到资本市场，身份从恒大集团首席经济学家兼恒大经济研究院院长，变成东吴证券首席经济学家，年薪少了一大截。\n“房地产长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融”这条“定律”，就是他提出来的。\n在4月份首场宏观策略报告会上，他说，房地产是中国经济最坚硬的泡沫。\n“中国房地产的根本问题就是人地错配和货币过去的一度超发。”\n而他认为，这一切还有解，“我们还有最后十年的时间窗口。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600048":0.9,"02007":0.9,"01918":0.9,"03333":0.9,"000002":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}