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2023-04-03

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It is not a dream for oil prices to return to 100 yuan! After OPEC + unexpectedly cuts production, the market explodes again

2023-03-05

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14:10","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"It is not a dream for oil prices to return to 100 yuan! After OPEC + unexpectedly cuts production, the market explodes again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2324832862","media":"智通财经","summary":"此举重新点燃了人们对通胀和经济衰退的担忧。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>OPEC + 's decision to cut oil production caught markets by surprise as the group's leader, Saudi Arabia, had earlier said it would stand still. The move has rekindled fears of inflation and a recession.</p><p>The White House said OPEC's decision was unwise under current market conditions, adding that the United States will work with producers and consumers to focus on gasoline prices in the United States.</p><p>The market reacted quickly to OPEC + production cuts. Brent crude oil prices surged 8% at one point on Monday. The U.S. two-year Treasury Bond yield jumped 7 basis points to 4.10%, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury Bond yield climbed 5 basis points to 3.52%. The dollar spot index rose 0.2%, its second consecutive day of gains, reflecting bets on further rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Here's what analysts have to say about OPEC + production cuts:</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a></strong></p><p>\"OPEC + has very strong pricing power compared to the past,\" said Goldman Sachs analysts such as Daan Struyven and Callum Bruce. \"OPEC + 's unexpected production cuts are in line with their new principle of preemption because they can act without substantially losing market share.\"</p><p>Coupled with Russia's extended production cuts, the Wall Street giant raised its Brent crude forecast for December this year to $95 a barrel from its previous estimate of $90 and its price forecast for December 2024 to $100.</p><p>Goldman Sachs added that unlike OPEC + production cuts in October last year, the momentum of global oil demand is positive due to a strong recovery in Chinese demand and strong refining margins.</p><p><strong>Bank of America</strong></p><p>Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, said: \"Any unexpected 1 million barrels per day change in supply and demand conditions over a one-year period will impact oil prices by $20 to $25 per barrel.\"</p><p>\"If Brent crude oil prices trade above $80 a barrel, OPEC is no longer worried about a major reaction to U.S. shale supply, so cutting production to push oil prices higher will not pose the same risk as it did five years ago,\" he said.</p><p>Still, it's unclear how much of the planned cuts will be implemented into actual production, as OPEC has historically been unable to fully implement the agreed cuts, he said. Bank of America maintained its forecast for Brent crude to exceed $90 a barrel in the second half of the year.</p><p><strong>Citigroup</strong></p><p>Citi analysts, including Ed Morse and Francesco Martoccia, said: \"OPEC + has reverted its recently abandoned decision to become the'central banker 'of oil.\"</p><p>\"Given the extremely low allocation of managed funds, low position interest rates and high volatility, the market can expect a price overshoot, just as Fed tightening and banking turmoil caused prices to fall far more than they should two weeks ago,\" they said.</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a></strong></p><p>According to RBC Capital Markets analysts, including Helima Croft and Christopher Louney, OPEC + 's unexpected production cuts could reduce actual production by about 700,000 barrels per day, despite news reporting figures of about 1.65 million barrels per day.</p><p>However, the move can be interpreted as a signal that Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners will seek to deter further macro selling. They believe that Saudi Arabia has clearly expressed its concerns about the aggressive actions of the Federal Reserve, macro uncertainty and the excessive bearish tendency of the market.</p><p><strong>ANZ Bank</strong></p><p>Daniel Hynes, senior commodities strategist at ANZ, said the chances of oil reaching $100 before the end of the year \"definitely increased\" after these measures.</p><p>\"Like everyone else in the market, I am very surprised by this move,\" he said. \"This measure really sends a very strong signal to the market that they will support oil prices.\"</p><p><strong>Australia Commonwealth Bank</strong></p><p>Vivek Dhar, head of mining and energy commodities research at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the output cuts announced by OPEC + will account for \"around 1.1% of global supply in the next two months and around 1.6% of global supply in the second half of this year.\"</p><p>He added that the eight countries that plan to cut production do have the ability to do so. \"So a production cut of more than 1 million barrels per day can be a reality,\" Dhar said. \"People should pay attention to these cuts because they are actually achievable.\"</p><p><strong>Nordic Bank of Sweden</strong></p><p>\"With U.S. oil production growth slowing, there is limited risk of market share being lost to U.S. shale, so it is easy for OPEC + to cut production,\" said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Sweden's Nordic Bank. \"The natural consequence of slowing U.S. shale oil growth is that OPEC + has greater market power and higher oil prices.\"</p><p>He said production cuts would help push Brent back to $100 a barrel more quickly as global jet fuel demand recovers.</p><p>Schieldrop has previously believed that OPEC still has huge room for further production cuts. \"This holds true even after recent production cuts. As a result, downside risks to oil prices are limited,\" he said.</p><p><strong>Vanda Insights</strong></p><p>Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore-based oil consultancy Vanda Insights, said: \"This move may leave the market with a supply shortage in the second quarter, rather than the oversupply previously expected.\"</p><p>She added: \"Rising oil prices could dampen some crude oil demand and exacerbate the stubborn inflation that major central banks are trying to contain, increasing the risk of recession.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It is not a dream for oil prices to return to 100 yuan! After OPEC + unexpectedly cuts production, the market explodes again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt is not a dream for oil prices to return to 100 yuan! After OPEC + unexpectedly cuts production, the market explodes again\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-03 14:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>OPEC + 's decision to cut oil production caught markets by surprise as the group's leader, Saudi Arabia, had earlier said it would stand still. The move has rekindled fears of inflation and a recession.</p><p>The White House said OPEC's decision was unwise under current market conditions, adding that the United States will work with producers and consumers to focus on gasoline prices in the United States.</p><p>The market reacted quickly to OPEC + production cuts. Brent crude oil prices surged 8% at one point on Monday. The U.S. two-year Treasury Bond yield jumped 7 basis points to 4.10%, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury Bond yield climbed 5 basis points to 3.52%. The dollar spot index rose 0.2%, its second consecutive day of gains, reflecting bets on further rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Here's what analysts have to say about OPEC + production cuts:</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a></strong></p><p>\"OPEC + has very strong pricing power compared to the past,\" said Goldman Sachs analysts such as Daan Struyven and Callum Bruce. \"OPEC + 's unexpected production cuts are in line with their new principle of preemption because they can act without substantially losing market share.\"</p><p>Coupled with Russia's extended production cuts, the Wall Street giant raised its Brent crude forecast for December this year to $95 a barrel from its previous estimate of $90 and its price forecast for December 2024 to $100.</p><p>Goldman Sachs added that unlike OPEC + production cuts in October last year, the momentum of global oil demand is positive due to a strong recovery in Chinese demand and strong refining margins.</p><p><strong>Bank of America</strong></p><p>Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, said: \"Any unexpected 1 million barrels per day change in supply and demand conditions over a one-year period will impact oil prices by $20 to $25 per barrel.\"</p><p>\"If Brent crude oil prices trade above $80 a barrel, OPEC is no longer worried about a major reaction to U.S. shale supply, so cutting production to push oil prices higher will not pose the same risk as it did five years ago,\" he said.</p><p>Still, it's unclear how much of the planned cuts will be implemented into actual production, as OPEC has historically been unable to fully implement the agreed cuts, he said. Bank of America maintained its forecast for Brent crude to exceed $90 a barrel in the second half of the year.</p><p><strong>Citigroup</strong></p><p>Citi analysts, including Ed Morse and Francesco Martoccia, said: \"OPEC + has reverted its recently abandoned decision to become the'central banker 'of oil.\"</p><p>\"Given the extremely low allocation of managed funds, low position interest rates and high volatility, the market can expect a price overshoot, just as Fed tightening and banking turmoil caused prices to fall far more than they should two weeks ago,\" they said.</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a></strong></p><p>According to RBC Capital Markets analysts, including Helima Croft and Christopher Louney, OPEC + 's unexpected production cuts could reduce actual production by about 700,000 barrels per day, despite news reporting figures of about 1.65 million barrels per day.</p><p>However, the move can be interpreted as a signal that Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners will seek to deter further macro selling. They believe that Saudi Arabia has clearly expressed its concerns about the aggressive actions of the Federal Reserve, macro uncertainty and the excessive bearish tendency of the market.</p><p><strong>ANZ Bank</strong></p><p>Daniel Hynes, senior commodities strategist at ANZ, said the chances of oil reaching $100 before the end of the year \"definitely increased\" after these measures.</p><p>\"Like everyone else in the market, I am very surprised by this move,\" he said. \"This measure really sends a very strong signal to the market that they will support oil prices.\"</p><p><strong>Australia Commonwealth Bank</strong></p><p>Vivek Dhar, head of mining and energy commodities research at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the output cuts announced by OPEC + will account for \"around 1.1% of global supply in the next two months and around 1.6% of global supply in the second half of this year.\"</p><p>He added that the eight countries that plan to cut production do have the ability to do so. \"So a production cut of more than 1 million barrels per day can be a reality,\" Dhar said. \"People should pay attention to these cuts because they are actually achievable.\"</p><p><strong>Nordic Bank of Sweden</strong></p><p>\"With U.S. oil production growth slowing, there is limited risk of market share being lost to U.S. shale, so it is easy for OPEC + to cut production,\" said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Sweden's Nordic Bank. \"The natural consequence of slowing U.S. shale oil growth is that OPEC + has greater market power and higher oil prices.\"</p><p>He said production cuts would help push Brent back to $100 a barrel more quickly as global jet fuel demand recovers.</p><p>Schieldrop has previously believed that OPEC still has huge room for further production cuts. \"This holds true even after recent production cuts. As a result, downside risks to oil prices are limited,\" he said.</p><p><strong>Vanda Insights</strong></p><p>Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore-based oil consultancy Vanda Insights, said: \"This move may leave the market with a supply shortage in the second quarter, rather than the oversupply previously expected.\"</p><p>She added: \"Rising oil prices could dampen some crude oil demand and exacerbate the stubborn inflation that major central banks are trying to contain, increasing the risk of recession.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/905410.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/783b90f4f58142af1f2aa989e35dc732","relate_stocks":{"SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/905410.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2324832862","content_text":"OPEC+削减石油产量的决定令市场大吃一惊，因为该组织领导人沙特阿拉伯早些时候曾表示将按兵不动。此举重新点燃了人们对通胀和经济衰退的担忧。美国白宫称，在目前的市场条件下，OPEC+的决定是不明智的，并补充说，美国将与生产者和消费者合作，重点关注美国的汽油价格。市场对OPEC+减产迅速做出反应。周一布伦特原油价格一度飙升8%。美国两年期国债收益率跃升7个基点，至4.10%，而基准10年期国债收益率攀升5个基点，至3.52%。美元现货指数上涨0.2%，为连续第二天上涨，反映出市场押注美联储将进一步加息。以下是分析人士对OPEC+减产的看法：高盛Daan Struyven和Callum Bruce等高盛分析师表示:“与过去相比，OPEC+拥有非常强大的定价权。”“OPEC+意外减产符合他们先发制人的新原则，因为他们可以在不大幅损失市场份额的情况下采取行动。”再加上俄罗斯延长减产，这家华尔街巨头将今年12月的布伦特原油预测从此前的每桶90美元上调至95美元，并将2024年12月的价格预测上调至100美元。高盛补充称，与去年10月OPEC+减产不同，由于中国需求强劲复苏和炼油利润率坚挺，全球石油需求的势头是积极的。美国银行美国银行大宗商品和衍生品研究主管Francisco Blanch表示:“在一年的时间里，供需状况发生任何意外的100万桶/日变化，都会对油价造成每桶20至25美元的影响。”他表示:“如果布伦特原油价格在每桶80美元以上交易，OPEC不再担心美国页岩油供应的重大反应，因此削减产量推高油价不会像五年前那样带来风险。”他表示，尽管如此，目前尚不清楚计划中的减产有多少会落实到实际产量上，因为OPEC历史上一直未能完全实施商定的减产。美国银行维持布伦特原油在今年下半年超过每桶90美元的预测。花旗集团包括Ed Morse和Francesco Martoccia在内的花旗分析师表示:“OPEC+恢复了最近放弃的成为石油‘央行行长’的决定。”他们表示：“考虑到极低的管理资金配置、低持仓利率和高波动性，市场可以预期价格会出现超调，就像美联储收紧政策和银行业动荡导致两周前的价格下跌幅度远远超过了应有的水平。”加拿大皇家银行据包括Helima Croft和Christopher Louney在内的加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师称，OPEC+的意外减产可能导致实际产量减少约70万桶/天，尽管新闻报道的数字约为165万桶/天。不过，此举可以被解读为一个信号，即沙特阿拉伯及其OPEC伙伴将寻求阻止进一步的宏观抛售。他们认为，沙特明确表达了对美联储激进行动、宏观不确定性以及市场过度看空倾向的担忧。澳新银行澳新银行高级大宗商品策略师Daniel Hynes表示，在这些措施出台后，油价在年底前达到100美元的可能性“肯定增加了”。他表示:“和市场上的其他人一样，我对这一举动感到非常惊讶。”“这项措施确实向市场发出了一个非常强烈的信号，即他们将支持油价。”澳大利亚联邦银行澳大利亚联邦银行矿业和能源大宗商品研究主管Vivek Dhar表示，OPEC+宣布的减产将“占未来两个月全球供应量的1.1%左右，占今年下半年全球供应量的1.6%左右”。他补充说，计划减产的8个国家确实有能力这样做。Dhar表示:“因此，每天减产超过100万桶可以成为现实。”“人们应该关注这些削减，因为它们实际上是可以实现的。”瑞典北欧斯安银行瑞典北欧斯安银行首席大宗商品分析师Bjarne Schieldrop表示:“随着美国石油产量增长放缓，市场份额被美国页岩油抢走的风险有限，因此OPEC+很容易削减产量。”“美国页岩油增长放缓的自然结果是，OPEC+的市场力量更大，油价更高。”他表示，随着全球航空燃油需求复苏，减产将有助于推动布伦特原油更快回到每桶100美元的水平。Schieldrop之前曾认为，OPEC仍有进一步减产的巨大空间。他表示：“即使在最近的减产之后，这一点仍然成立。其结果是，油价下行风险有限。”Vanda Insights新加坡石油咨询公司Vanda Insights创始人Vandana Hari表示:“此举可能会使市场在第二季度出现供应短缺，而不是此前预期的供应过剩。”她补充称:“油价上涨可能会抑制部分原油需求，并加剧各大央行试图遏制的顽固通胀，增加衰退风险。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SCO":1,"CLmain":1,"USO":1,"BZmain":1,"UCO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940531648,"gmtCreate":1678021636084,"gmtModify":1678021639429,"author":{"id":"3584267972657287","authorId":"3584267972657287","name":"财米游言","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1516ab44d3460e0b97830666a8c1a44","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584267972657287","idStr":"3584267972657287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940531648","repostId":"1157059208","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920974556,"gmtCreate":1670426644775,"gmtModify":1676538365758,"author":{"id":"3584267972657287","authorId":"3584267972657287","name":"财米游言","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1516ab44d3460e0b97830666a8c1a44","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584267972657287","idStr":"3584267972657287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Black story&nbsp;","listText":"Black story&nbsp;","text":"Black story","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920974556","repostId":"1132239927","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132239927","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1670414482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132239927?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-07 20:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Blackstone suffered a crazy run: another financial thunder","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132239927","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"威力有多大？黑石集团，新世纪华尔街之王，坐拥近万亿美元资产，全球最大的私募股权基金和资产管理公司。它在全球金融江湖呼风唤雨，不可一世。黑石的老板是史蒂芬.斯瓦茨曼，土生土长的犹太裔美国人。他给自己起了","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>How powerful is it?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>Group, the king of Wall Street in the new century, sits on nearly one trillion dollars in assets and is the world's largest private equity fund and asset management company. It is powerful in the global financial arena and lake.</p><p>Blackstone's boss is Stephen Swartzman, a native Jewish American. He gave himself a nice Chinese name-Su Shimin. In China, he became famous because he spent 61 billion yuan to take over Pan Shiyi in 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00410\">SOHO China</a>All assets.</p><p>During the years of the epidemic, Schwarzman made a bold decision to aggressively expand his real estate business while taking advantage of the flood of low dollars. In 2021, the management scale of Blackstone Real Estate will surpass the traditional private equity business in one fell swoop and become the group's largest core asset sector. In 2022, the real estate business will raise US $33.5 billion, far exceeding the US $22.5 billion raised by private equity.</p><p>Everything is wonderful, and I thought I could continue. But the music suddenly came to an abrupt end, and it seems that it has long been doomed.</p><p><b>01、</b><b>Run storm</b></p><p>On December 1st, Blackstone sent a letter to clients saying that the Real Estate Income Trust Fund (BRIET) only had 0.3% of its net assets available for investors to redeem funds in December. The redemption rule of the fund is that it shall not exceed 2% of the net assets per month, and the cumulative net assets in a single quarter shall not exceed 5%.</p><p>The move spooked investors in the stock market. That night, the stock price once crashed by 12%, and still fell by more than 7% at the close. In the last 16 trading days, Blackstone has plummeted by 28%. The current price has also plummeted by 44% compared with the historical peak, evaporating the market value of 45 billion US dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe5fda31a4cc590bec595905aba7c7b\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Blackstone experienced a wave of runs and made an emergency decision. In October this year, investors applied for redemption funds of up to US $1.8 billion, accounting for 2.7% of the company's net assets. Although the quota exceeds the standard, it still fulfills the contract 100%. By November, more investors requested redemptions, and Blackstone encountered difficulties, accepting only 43% of applications, totaling $1.3 billion. Fund investors became increasingly panicked, and the December redemption sell order flocked in.<b>Blackstone couldn't resist it, and there were signs of liquidity crisis, and the redemption ratio plummeted from 2% to 0.3%.</b></p><p>Blackstone itself admits that there is not much liquidity that can be directly used, only $9.3 billion. If necessary, he will have to sell the $9 billion in bonds he holds.</p><p>In response to the run crisis, Blackstone began to sell real estate. On December 2, the company announced that it planned to pay US $1.27 billion to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MGM\">MGM</a>49.9% of the shares of Grand Hotel and Mandalay Bay Resort were sold to VICI, which also holds the remaining shares of these two well-known Las Vegas landmarks. After the acquisition, these two landmark properties will be wholly owned.</p><p>If investors continue to withdraw funds on a large scale, Blackstone may face the same experience as Evergrande. You know, the scale of Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust Fund is as high as US $125 billion, and its investment fields are all extremely illiquid real estate, including apartment buildings, industrial office parks, casinos, logistics facilities, etc.</p><p>Since its establishment in 2017, the BRIET fund has a brilliant record-the annualized rate of return is as high as 13%, and the dividend yield is 4.4%. With such brilliant and stable performance, why do investors run on a large scale?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d65ff1d2fc6429340cb231cb0f5ed56b\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In my opinion, it is a good decision for smart investors to cash out at a high level and be safe.</b>According to Blackstone statistics, since the beginning of this year, BRIET funds have returned as much as 9.3%, while publicly traded REIT indexes have fallen by more than 3% during the same period. Separately, REIT peer Vangard's Real Estate ETF (VQN) has delivered a total return of-13% this year.</p><p>The BRIET fund is not traded on the exchange, and its real estate pricing and evaluation are all decided by Blackstone itself, so there is a risk of overestimating the net asset value. In terms of peers, the performance of BRIET funds is indeed too optimistic. For investors, this year's profits are not bad, asset prices are still overvalued, and they won't leave the market until they cash out. What are you waiting for?</p><p>Of course, this is not the only core reason to sell the fund. More importantly, under the background of the crazy rate hike of mainstream central banks in the world, the global real estate market will face a severe test, and the decline in house prices is inevitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa3c697d9096ef1ccff3dfbf14014ae\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The liquidity crisis encountered by Blackstone has just begun.</b></p><p><b>02、</b><b>The property market is frozen</b></p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, European and American central banks carried out ultra-large monetary easing policies. Cheap money is constantly printed by crazy printing presses and flocks to all kinds of financial assets and physical fields, creating unprecedented asset bubbles and the highest global inflation in 40 years.</p><p>Real estate will naturally enjoy the capital bubble bath.<b>According to OECD data, the average house price in 34 member countries is up 35% compared with 2019.</b>Among them, from March 2020 to June 2022, U.S. house prices rose by an astonishing 42%.</p><p>Bubble carnival is unsustainable after all. Inflation is menacing, and the Federal Reserve has led central banks around the world to embark on violent rate hike. If it increases seven times a year, the rate hike may be as high as 450 basis points (50BP is expected in December), superimposed with a sharp shrinking balance sheet, and the degree of currency tightening will be the fastest in 40 years.</p><p>Interest rates reversed and rose massively, freezing the U.S. housing market.</p><p>In October this year, the confidence index of American homebuyers dropped rapidly to 39, the lowest level since 1980s. Homebuilders, too, lacked confidence and were cut in half within a few months. In November, the NAHB real estate index was only 33, close to the lowest point during the COVID-19 lockdown in May 2020 and lower than the level in February 2007. You know, the NAHB index is a leading indicator of U.S. home sales and overall spending. An index above 50 indicates that the housing market is expanding, and below 50 indicates that it is contracting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b823c321ba47b25f7e6a2a48ceac7e7\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In October, the total number of existing home sales in the United States recorded 4.43 million units on an annualized basis, a new low since December 2011, a month-on-month decrease of 5.9%. It was the nine consecutive months of decline and the longest losing streak in history. The losing streak has even exceeded the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>According to a survey of 53 metropolitan areas in the United States conducted by international real estate company RE/MAX, total home sales in the United States in October fell by 13.5% month-on-month and 30.7% year-on-year. The report also noted that homes for sale are up 36.8% from a year ago, and it takes an average of 35 days for homes to sell after they hit the market.</p><p><b>The confidence of real estate buyers and sellers is seriously insufficient, and the transaction volume is cooling rapidly, which is also an important signal that house prices are about to begin to show an inflection point.</b></p><p>In September this year, the composite index of housing prices in 20 major cities in the United States rose by 10.4% year-on-year, down 2.7 percentage points from the previous value of 13.1%. On a month-on-month basis, house prices in San Francisco and Seattle fell the most, both falling by 2.9%, Las Vegas fell by 2.4%, and Phoenix fell by 2.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fca640780801809392883b38effa8e3\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. house prices have peaked and fallen, and recording an optimistic decline will be an overwhelming probability event.</b>According to KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk, home prices in the United States may fall by 15% in 2023.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is believed that the adjustment of U.S. housing prices has just begun. The Case-Schiller National House Price Index will fall by 4% year-on-year in 2023. From June 2022 to the end of 2024, U.S. housing prices will fall by about 10% from their peak.</p><p>Why did it fall so much?</p><p>This year, the 30-year mortgage interest rate rose from 2.98% at the beginning of the year to 7.1%, setting a new high in 2002. Rates are still as high as 6.49% right now. This will be a major blow to investors and people who just need to buy houses. Under the pressure of high inflation, the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a long time next year, and the huge pressure on real estate will not decrease sharply.</p><p>In 2023, the possible deep recession of the U.S. economy will also hit the real estate market hard.</p><p>At present, the forward-looking indicators of the U.S. economy, the manufacturing PMI and the service PMI, have fallen within the 50 boom-bust line for several months. The crude oil market is also truly reflecting the realistic logic of slowing demand in the global economy (including the United States). Currently, the price of WTI crude oil futures is only US $74, once again hitting a new low for the year.</p><p>In terms of financial indicators, the yields of 2-year and 10-year Treasury Bond have recently inverted by as much as 80 basis points, the largest since 1981. The indicator tends to be seen as a relatively accurate leading signal of a U.S. recession. Since 1988, the phenomenon of inversion has occurred roughly four times, all of which have triggered the subsequent economic recession and crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e33433580e0406dc5f396ce7398f401b\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Judging from various data and logical deductions, the U.S. economy will begin to usher in a rapid decline in the first quarter of next year. In fact, we can also get clues from the wave of layoffs in Silicon Valley and Wall Street in the United States.<b>Giant groups are strengthening risk aversion measures, and it also shows that the U.S. economy in 2023 may be worse than expected.</b></p><p>The U.S. real estate market will become more and more frozen, which will bring greater impact and trouble to Blackstone. After all, more than 70% of BRIET's assets are invested in the west and south of the United States.</p><p><b>03、</b><b>Epilogue</b></p><p>Overseas property market bubbles burst one by one.</p><p>In New Zealand, house prices fell 11% in October from their peak in January this year. In Sweden, house prices in September also dropped by 11% from their peak in March. On the Canadian side, national home prices fell 3.1% month-on-month in September, the biggest monthly decline since traceable data became available in 1999. In South Korea, the national apartment price fell by 1.20% month-on-month in October, which was the largest monthly decline since the data was collected in November 2003. The apartment price in Seoul fell by 1.24% month-on-month, which exceeded the overall decline, and fell for the ninth consecutive month.</p><p>The latest report of Oxford Research Institute predicts that house prices in Canada may drop by 30%, house prices in New Zealand may drop by 20% and house prices in Australia may drop by as much as 20%. This is the most worrying prospect of the property market in 2007-2008.</p><p>Under the avalanche, no snowflake is innocent. Of course, it also includes Blackstone Group, which expanded its real estate business during the epidemic. Su Shimin is over 70 years old and has experienced eight major crises without failing. It is hoped that this major liquidity crisis can also be narrowly passed.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Blackstone suffered a crazy run: another financial thunder</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackstone suffered a crazy run: another financial thunder\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-07 20:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>How powerful is it?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>Group, the king of Wall Street in the new century, sits on nearly one trillion dollars in assets and is the world's largest private equity fund and asset management company. It is powerful in the global financial arena and lake.</p><p>Blackstone's boss is Stephen Swartzman, a native Jewish American. He gave himself a nice Chinese name-Su Shimin. In China, he became famous because he spent 61 billion yuan to take over Pan Shiyi in 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00410\">SOHO China</a>All assets.</p><p>During the years of the epidemic, Schwarzman made a bold decision to aggressively expand his real estate business while taking advantage of the flood of low dollars. In 2021, the management scale of Blackstone Real Estate will surpass the traditional private equity business in one fell swoop and become the group's largest core asset sector. In 2022, the real estate business will raise US $33.5 billion, far exceeding the US $22.5 billion raised by private equity.</p><p>Everything is wonderful, and I thought I could continue. But the music suddenly came to an abrupt end, and it seems that it has long been doomed.</p><p><b>01、</b><b>Run storm</b></p><p>On December 1st, Blackstone sent a letter to clients saying that the Real Estate Income Trust Fund (BRIET) only had 0.3% of its net assets available for investors to redeem funds in December. The redemption rule of the fund is that it shall not exceed 2% of the net assets per month, and the cumulative net assets in a single quarter shall not exceed 5%.</p><p>The move spooked investors in the stock market. That night, the stock price once crashed by 12%, and still fell by more than 7% at the close. In the last 16 trading days, Blackstone has plummeted by 28%. The current price has also plummeted by 44% compared with the historical peak, evaporating the market value of 45 billion US dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe5fda31a4cc590bec595905aba7c7b\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Blackstone experienced a wave of runs and made an emergency decision. In October this year, investors applied for redemption funds of up to US $1.8 billion, accounting for 2.7% of the company's net assets. Although the quota exceeds the standard, it still fulfills the contract 100%. By November, more investors requested redemptions, and Blackstone encountered difficulties, accepting only 43% of applications, totaling $1.3 billion. Fund investors became increasingly panicked, and the December redemption sell order flocked in.<b>Blackstone couldn't resist it, and there were signs of liquidity crisis, and the redemption ratio plummeted from 2% to 0.3%.</b></p><p>Blackstone itself admits that there is not much liquidity that can be directly used, only $9.3 billion. If necessary, he will have to sell the $9 billion in bonds he holds.</p><p>In response to the run crisis, Blackstone began to sell real estate. On December 2, the company announced that it planned to pay US $1.27 billion to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MGM\">MGM</a>49.9% of the shares of Grand Hotel and Mandalay Bay Resort were sold to VICI, which also holds the remaining shares of these two well-known Las Vegas landmarks. After the acquisition, these two landmark properties will be wholly owned.</p><p>If investors continue to withdraw funds on a large scale, Blackstone may face the same experience as Evergrande. You know, the scale of Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust Fund is as high as US $125 billion, and its investment fields are all extremely illiquid real estate, including apartment buildings, industrial office parks, casinos, logistics facilities, etc.</p><p>Since its establishment in 2017, the BRIET fund has a brilliant record-the annualized rate of return is as high as 13%, and the dividend yield is 4.4%. With such brilliant and stable performance, why do investors run on a large scale?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d65ff1d2fc6429340cb231cb0f5ed56b\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In my opinion, it is a good decision for smart investors to cash out at a high level and be safe.</b>According to Blackstone statistics, since the beginning of this year, BRIET funds have returned as much as 9.3%, while publicly traded REIT indexes have fallen by more than 3% during the same period. Separately, REIT peer Vangard's Real Estate ETF (VQN) has delivered a total return of-13% this year.</p><p>The BRIET fund is not traded on the exchange, and its real estate pricing and evaluation are all decided by Blackstone itself, so there is a risk of overestimating the net asset value. In terms of peers, the performance of BRIET funds is indeed too optimistic. For investors, this year's profits are not bad, asset prices are still overvalued, and they won't leave the market until they cash out. What are you waiting for?</p><p>Of course, this is not the only core reason to sell the fund. More importantly, under the background of the crazy rate hike of mainstream central banks in the world, the global real estate market will face a severe test, and the decline in house prices is inevitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa3c697d9096ef1ccff3dfbf14014ae\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The liquidity crisis encountered by Blackstone has just begun.</b></p><p><b>02、</b><b>The property market is frozen</b></p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, European and American central banks carried out ultra-large monetary easing policies. Cheap money is constantly printed by crazy printing presses and flocks to all kinds of financial assets and physical fields, creating unprecedented asset bubbles and the highest global inflation in 40 years.</p><p>Real estate will naturally enjoy the capital bubble bath.<b>According to OECD data, the average house price in 34 member countries is up 35% compared with 2019.</b>Among them, from March 2020 to June 2022, U.S. house prices rose by an astonishing 42%.</p><p>Bubble carnival is unsustainable after all. Inflation is menacing, and the Federal Reserve has led central banks around the world to embark on violent rate hike. If it increases seven times a year, the rate hike may be as high as 450 basis points (50BP is expected in December), superimposed with a sharp shrinking balance sheet, and the degree of currency tightening will be the fastest in 40 years.</p><p>Interest rates reversed and rose massively, freezing the U.S. housing market.</p><p>In October this year, the confidence index of American homebuyers dropped rapidly to 39, the lowest level since 1980s. Homebuilders, too, lacked confidence and were cut in half within a few months. In November, the NAHB real estate index was only 33, close to the lowest point during the COVID-19 lockdown in May 2020 and lower than the level in February 2007. You know, the NAHB index is a leading indicator of U.S. home sales and overall spending. An index above 50 indicates that the housing market is expanding, and below 50 indicates that it is contracting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b823c321ba47b25f7e6a2a48ceac7e7\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In October, the total number of existing home sales in the United States recorded 4.43 million units on an annualized basis, a new low since December 2011, a month-on-month decrease of 5.9%. It was the nine consecutive months of decline and the longest losing streak in history. The losing streak has even exceeded the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>According to a survey of 53 metropolitan areas in the United States conducted by international real estate company RE/MAX, total home sales in the United States in October fell by 13.5% month-on-month and 30.7% year-on-year. The report also noted that homes for sale are up 36.8% from a year ago, and it takes an average of 35 days for homes to sell after they hit the market.</p><p><b>The confidence of real estate buyers and sellers is seriously insufficient, and the transaction volume is cooling rapidly, which is also an important signal that house prices are about to begin to show an inflection point.</b></p><p>In September this year, the composite index of housing prices in 20 major cities in the United States rose by 10.4% year-on-year, down 2.7 percentage points from the previous value of 13.1%. On a month-on-month basis, house prices in San Francisco and Seattle fell the most, both falling by 2.9%, Las Vegas fell by 2.4%, and Phoenix fell by 2.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fca640780801809392883b38effa8e3\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. house prices have peaked and fallen, and recording an optimistic decline will be an overwhelming probability event.</b>According to KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk, home prices in the United States may fall by 15% in 2023.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is believed that the adjustment of U.S. housing prices has just begun. The Case-Schiller National House Price Index will fall by 4% year-on-year in 2023. From June 2022 to the end of 2024, U.S. housing prices will fall by about 10% from their peak.</p><p>Why did it fall so much?</p><p>This year, the 30-year mortgage interest rate rose from 2.98% at the beginning of the year to 7.1%, setting a new high in 2002. Rates are still as high as 6.49% right now. This will be a major blow to investors and people who just need to buy houses. Under the pressure of high inflation, the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a long time next year, and the huge pressure on real estate will not decrease sharply.</p><p>In 2023, the possible deep recession of the U.S. economy will also hit the real estate market hard.</p><p>At present, the forward-looking indicators of the U.S. economy, the manufacturing PMI and the service PMI, have fallen within the 50 boom-bust line for several months. The crude oil market is also truly reflecting the realistic logic of slowing demand in the global economy (including the United States). Currently, the price of WTI crude oil futures is only US $74, once again hitting a new low for the year.</p><p>In terms of financial indicators, the yields of 2-year and 10-year Treasury Bond have recently inverted by as much as 80 basis points, the largest since 1981. The indicator tends to be seen as a relatively accurate leading signal of a U.S. recession. Since 1988, the phenomenon of inversion has occurred roughly four times, all of which have triggered the subsequent economic recession and crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e33433580e0406dc5f396ce7398f401b\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Judging from various data and logical deductions, the U.S. economy will begin to usher in a rapid decline in the first quarter of next year. In fact, we can also get clues from the wave of layoffs in Silicon Valley and Wall Street in the United States.<b>Giant groups are strengthening risk aversion measures, and it also shows that the U.S. economy in 2023 may be worse than expected.</b></p><p>The U.S. real estate market will become more and more frozen, which will bring greater impact and trouble to Blackstone. After all, more than 70% of BRIET's assets are invested in the west and south of the United States.</p><p><b>03、</b><b>Epilogue</b></p><p>Overseas property market bubbles burst one by one.</p><p>In New Zealand, house prices fell 11% in October from their peak in January this year. In Sweden, house prices in September also dropped by 11% from their peak in March. On the Canadian side, national home prices fell 3.1% month-on-month in September, the biggest monthly decline since traceable data became available in 1999. In South Korea, the national apartment price fell by 1.20% month-on-month in October, which was the largest monthly decline since the data was collected in November 2003. The apartment price in Seoul fell by 1.24% month-on-month, which exceeded the overall decline, and fell for the ninth consecutive month.</p><p>The latest report of Oxford Research Institute predicts that house prices in Canada may drop by 30%, house prices in New Zealand may drop by 20% and house prices in Australia may drop by as much as 20%. This is the most worrying prospect of the property market in 2007-2008.</p><p>Under the avalanche, no snowflake is innocent. Of course, it also includes Blackstone Group, which expanded its real estate business during the epidemic. Su Shimin is over 70 years old and has experienced eight major crises without failing. It is hoped that this major liquidity crisis can also be narrowly passed.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1809e27051e8cdce9de7de16a0c4b29c","relate_stocks":{"159940":"金融","BX":"黑石","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132239927","content_text":"威力有多大？黑石集团，新世纪华尔街之王，坐拥近万亿美元资产，全球最大的私募股权基金和资产管理公司。它在全球金融江湖呼风唤雨，不可一世。黑石的老板是史蒂芬.斯瓦茨曼，土生土长的犹太裔美国人。他给自己起了一个好听的中文名——苏世民。在中国，他名声大噪，是因为2020年斥资610亿元接盘潘石屹SOHO中国全部资产。疫情几年间，苏世民做了一个大胆的决定，趁着泛滥低廉的美元大肆扩张房地产业务。2021年，黑石不动产管理规模一举超过私募股权传统业务，成为集团第一大核心资产板块。2022年，不动产业务募集了335亿美元，远超过私募股权225亿美元的募集规模。一切美妙，原本以为可以继续。但音乐突然戛然而止，似乎也早已命中注定。01、挤兑风波12月1日，黑石给客户致信称，房地产收益信托基金（BRIET）12月只有占净资产规模0.3%的额度可供投资者赎回资金。而该基金赎回规则是每个月不超过净资产规模的2%，单个季度累计不超过净资产的5%。这一举措吓坏了股票市场的投资者。当夜，股价一度闪崩12%，收盘仍大跌逾7%。最近16个交易日，黑石狂泻28%。现价较历史高峰也已经大幅暴跌44%，蒸发市值450亿美元。黑石经历了一波挤兑，紧急出此下策。今年10月，投资者赎回资金申请高达18亿美元，占到公司净资产规模的2.7%。虽然额度超标，但仍然100%履约。到了11月，更多投资者要求赎回，黑石遭遇困境，仅仅受理了43%的申请，总计13亿美元。基金投资者愈发恐慌，12月赎回卖盘蜂拥而入。黑石招架不住，出现了流动性危机征兆，赎回额比例从2%骤降至0.3%。黑石自己也承认手里可以直接动用的流动性资金并不多，仅仅93亿美元。如果有需要，就得卖出手里握有的90亿美元的债券。为了应对挤兑危机，黑石方面开始行动卖出不动产。12月2日，该公司宣布，拟作价12.7亿美元将美高梅大酒店和曼德勒海湾度假村的49.9%股份卖给VICI，后者也持有这两个拉斯维加斯知名地标的剩余股权，收购后将全资拥有这两个地标房产。如果投资者继续大规模撤资，黑石恐怕将面临恒大一样的遭遇。要知道，黑石房地产收益信托基金规模高达1250亿美元，投资领域均是流动性极差的不动产，包括公寓楼、工业办公园区、赌场、物流设施等等。而从2017年成立以来，BRIET基金有辉煌的战绩——年化收益率高达13%，同时分红收益率为4.4%。如此亮眼、如此稳定的业绩表现，为何投资者会大规模挤兑呢？在我看来，聪明投资者高位套现，落袋为安是一个尚佳决策。据黑石统计，今年以来，BRIET基金回报率高达9.3%，而同期公开交易的REIT指数下跌逾3%。另外，房地产信托基金同行Vangard旗下房地产ETF（VQN）今年总回报率为-13%。BRIET基金不在交易所交易，其不动产定价与评估都是黑石自己说了算，存在资产净值评估过高的风险。参照同行而言，BRIET基金表现确实太过于乐观了。对于投资者而言，今年盈利还不错，资产价格还被高估，不套现不离场，还等什么呢？当然，这并不是卖出基金的唯一核心理由。更为重要的是，在全球主流央行疯狂加息的大背景下，全球房地产市场将迎来严峻考验，房价下跌无法避免。黑石遭遇的流动性危机，才刚刚拉开序幕。02、楼市冰封新冠疫情期间，欧美央行开展了超大规模的货币宽松政策。廉价的货币被疯狂的印刷机不断印刷出来，涌向各类金融资产以及实体领域，造就了史无前例的资产泡沫以及40年以来最高的全球大通胀。房地产自然也会享受资本泡沫浴。据经合组织数据显示，34个成员国的平均房价较2019年上涨35%。其中在2020年3月至2022年6月，美国房价惊人上涨42%。泡沫狂欢，终究不可持续。通胀来势汹汹，美联储带领全球央行开始暴力加息。一年加7次，加息幅度可能会高达450个基点（12月预计50BP），叠加大幅缩表，货币紧转弯程度创40年最快。利率反转大规模上涨，冰冻了美国房地产市场。今年10月，美国购房者信心指数快速滑落至39，创下1980年代以来最低水平。房屋建筑商也一样，信心不足，几个月之内被腰斩。11月，NAHB房地产指数仅仅只有33，接近2020年5月新冠封锁时的最低点，低于2007年2月的水平。要知道，NAHB指数是美国房屋销售以及整体支出的一个领先指标。指数高于50，表明房地产市场在扩张，低于50表明在收缩。美国10月成屋销售总数年化录得443万户，创2011年12月以来的新低，环比下降5.9%，为连续9个月下滑，创有史以来最长连跌纪录，连跌周期甚至已超过2008年次贷危机时期。另据国际房地产公司RE/MAX调查了美国53个都会区，10月全美房屋销售总量环比下降了13.5％，同比下降了30.7％。报告还指出，待售房屋比一年前增加了36.8％，房屋上市后平均要35天才能售出。地产买卖双方信心严重不足，成交量快速冷却，亦是房价即将开始出现拐点下跌的重要信号。今年9月，美国20个大城市房价综合指数同比上涨10.4%，较前值13.1%下降2.7个百分点。环比来看，其中旧金山和西雅图房价跌幅最大，均跌2.9%，拉斯维加斯下滑2.4%，凤凰城跌幅为2.2%。美国房价见顶下跌，录得乐观跌幅将会是绝大概率事件。据毕马威首席经济学家Diane Swonk预测，2023年美国的房价或将下跌15%。摩根士丹利则认为，美国房价调整才刚刚开始，凯斯-席勒全美房价指数将于2023年同比下跌4%，2022年6月至2024年底，美国房价将由峰值下滑约10%。为什么会跌这么多？今年，30年期按揭贷款利率从年初的2.98%一路上扬至7.1%，创下2002年的新高。目前利率仍高达6.49%。这对于投资客以及刚需购房人群均会是重大打击。在高通胀的压力下，明年美联储还将维持高利率水平较长时间，对房地产的巨大压力不会锐减。2023年，美国经济可能的深度衰退，也将重创房地产市场。目前，美国经济前瞻性指标制造业PMI、服务业PMI均已经持续数月滑落至50荣枯线以内。原油市场也正在真真切切反应全球经济(包括美国)需求放缓的现实逻辑。目前，WTI原油期货价格仅为74美元，再度创下年内新低。金融指标上，2年期与10年期国债收益率近日倒挂幅度高达80个基点，创下1981年来最大的幅度。该指标往往被视为美国经济衰退的相对准确的领先信号。1988年以来，倒挂现象大致发生了4次，也都引发了后来的经济衰退与危机。从各种数据以及逻辑推演来看，美国经济将会在明年一季度开始迎来快速下滑。其实，我们从美国硅谷、华尔街的裁员潮也能端倪一二。巨擘集团们正为强化避险措施，同时也说明2023年的美国经济可能会比预期差。美国房地产市场会愈加冰封，将给黑石带来更大的冲击与麻烦。毕竟BRIET基金超过70%的资产投资于美国的西部和南部。03、尾声海外楼市泡沫一个一个破裂。在新西兰，10月房价比今年1月峰值时下跌11%。在瑞典，9月房价也比3月时的峰值回落11%。在加拿大方面，9月份全国房价环比下跌3.1%，是自1999年有可追溯数据以来的最大单月跌幅。在韩国，10月全国公寓价格环比下跌1.20%，这是自2003年11月数据统计以来的最大月度跌幅，首尔公寓价格环比下跌1.24%，降幅超过整体，连续第9个月下跌。牛津研究院最新一份报告预测，加拿大房价可能下挫30%，新西兰房价或下滑20%，澳州房价可能下降多达20%。这是2007-2008年最令人担忧的楼市前景。雪崩之下，没有一片雪花是无辜的。当然，也包括在疫情期间大势扩张地产业务的黑石集团。苏世民已经年过7旬，经历八次大危机而不倒。希望这一次重大流动性危机也能惊险过关。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159940":0.9,"BX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043854086,"gmtCreate":1655908658846,"gmtModify":1676535730033,"author":{"id":"3584267972657287","authorId":"3584267972657287","name":"财米游言","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1516ab44d3460e0b97830666a8c1a44","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584267972657287","idStr":"3584267972657287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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14:10","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"It is not a dream for oil prices to return to 100 yuan! After OPEC + unexpectedly cuts production, the market explodes again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2324832862","media":"智通财经","summary":"此举重新点燃了人们对通胀和经济衰退的担忧。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>OPEC + 's decision to cut oil production caught markets by surprise as the group's leader, Saudi Arabia, had earlier said it would stand still. The move has rekindled fears of inflation and a recession.</p><p>The White House said OPEC's decision was unwise under current market conditions, adding that the United States will work with producers and consumers to focus on gasoline prices in the United States.</p><p>The market reacted quickly to OPEC + production cuts. Brent crude oil prices surged 8% at one point on Monday. The U.S. two-year Treasury Bond yield jumped 7 basis points to 4.10%, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury Bond yield climbed 5 basis points to 3.52%. The dollar spot index rose 0.2%, its second consecutive day of gains, reflecting bets on further rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Here's what analysts have to say about OPEC + production cuts:</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a></strong></p><p>\"OPEC + has very strong pricing power compared to the past,\" said Goldman Sachs analysts such as Daan Struyven and Callum Bruce. \"OPEC + 's unexpected production cuts are in line with their new principle of preemption because they can act without substantially losing market share.\"</p><p>Coupled with Russia's extended production cuts, the Wall Street giant raised its Brent crude forecast for December this year to $95 a barrel from its previous estimate of $90 and its price forecast for December 2024 to $100.</p><p>Goldman Sachs added that unlike OPEC + production cuts in October last year, the momentum of global oil demand is positive due to a strong recovery in Chinese demand and strong refining margins.</p><p><strong>Bank of America</strong></p><p>Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, said: \"Any unexpected 1 million barrels per day change in supply and demand conditions over a one-year period will impact oil prices by $20 to $25 per barrel.\"</p><p>\"If Brent crude oil prices trade above $80 a barrel, OPEC is no longer worried about a major reaction to U.S. shale supply, so cutting production to push oil prices higher will not pose the same risk as it did five years ago,\" he said.</p><p>Still, it's unclear how much of the planned cuts will be implemented into actual production, as OPEC has historically been unable to fully implement the agreed cuts, he said. Bank of America maintained its forecast for Brent crude to exceed $90 a barrel in the second half of the year.</p><p><strong>Citigroup</strong></p><p>Citi analysts, including Ed Morse and Francesco Martoccia, said: \"OPEC + has reverted its recently abandoned decision to become the'central banker 'of oil.\"</p><p>\"Given the extremely low allocation of managed funds, low position interest rates and high volatility, the market can expect a price overshoot, just as Fed tightening and banking turmoil caused prices to fall far more than they should two weeks ago,\" they said.</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a></strong></p><p>According to RBC Capital Markets analysts, including Helima Croft and Christopher Louney, OPEC + 's unexpected production cuts could reduce actual production by about 700,000 barrels per day, despite news reporting figures of about 1.65 million barrels per day.</p><p>However, the move can be interpreted as a signal that Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners will seek to deter further macro selling. They believe that Saudi Arabia has clearly expressed its concerns about the aggressive actions of the Federal Reserve, macro uncertainty and the excessive bearish tendency of the market.</p><p><strong>ANZ Bank</strong></p><p>Daniel Hynes, senior commodities strategist at ANZ, said the chances of oil reaching $100 before the end of the year \"definitely increased\" after these measures.</p><p>\"Like everyone else in the market, I am very surprised by this move,\" he said. \"This measure really sends a very strong signal to the market that they will support oil prices.\"</p><p><strong>Australia Commonwealth Bank</strong></p><p>Vivek Dhar, head of mining and energy commodities research at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the output cuts announced by OPEC + will account for \"around 1.1% of global supply in the next two months and around 1.6% of global supply in the second half of this year.\"</p><p>He added that the eight countries that plan to cut production do have the ability to do so. \"So a production cut of more than 1 million barrels per day can be a reality,\" Dhar said. \"People should pay attention to these cuts because they are actually achievable.\"</p><p><strong>Nordic Bank of Sweden</strong></p><p>\"With U.S. oil production growth slowing, there is limited risk of market share being lost to U.S. shale, so it is easy for OPEC + to cut production,\" said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Sweden's Nordic Bank. \"The natural consequence of slowing U.S. shale oil growth is that OPEC + has greater market power and higher oil prices.\"</p><p>He said production cuts would help push Brent back to $100 a barrel more quickly as global jet fuel demand recovers.</p><p>Schieldrop has previously believed that OPEC still has huge room for further production cuts. \"This holds true even after recent production cuts. As a result, downside risks to oil prices are limited,\" he said.</p><p><strong>Vanda Insights</strong></p><p>Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore-based oil consultancy Vanda Insights, said: \"This move may leave the market with a supply shortage in the second quarter, rather than the oversupply previously expected.\"</p><p>She added: \"Rising oil prices could dampen some crude oil demand and exacerbate the stubborn inflation that major central banks are trying to contain, increasing the risk of recession.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It is not a dream for oil prices to return to 100 yuan! After OPEC + unexpectedly cuts production, the market explodes again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt is not a dream for oil prices to return to 100 yuan! After OPEC + unexpectedly cuts production, the market explodes again\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-03 14:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>OPEC + 's decision to cut oil production caught markets by surprise as the group's leader, Saudi Arabia, had earlier said it would stand still. The move has rekindled fears of inflation and a recession.</p><p>The White House said OPEC's decision was unwise under current market conditions, adding that the United States will work with producers and consumers to focus on gasoline prices in the United States.</p><p>The market reacted quickly to OPEC + production cuts. Brent crude oil prices surged 8% at one point on Monday. The U.S. two-year Treasury Bond yield jumped 7 basis points to 4.10%, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury Bond yield climbed 5 basis points to 3.52%. The dollar spot index rose 0.2%, its second consecutive day of gains, reflecting bets on further rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Here's what analysts have to say about OPEC + production cuts:</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a></strong></p><p>\"OPEC + has very strong pricing power compared to the past,\" said Goldman Sachs analysts such as Daan Struyven and Callum Bruce. \"OPEC + 's unexpected production cuts are in line with their new principle of preemption because they can act without substantially losing market share.\"</p><p>Coupled with Russia's extended production cuts, the Wall Street giant raised its Brent crude forecast for December this year to $95 a barrel from its previous estimate of $90 and its price forecast for December 2024 to $100.</p><p>Goldman Sachs added that unlike OPEC + production cuts in October last year, the momentum of global oil demand is positive due to a strong recovery in Chinese demand and strong refining margins.</p><p><strong>Bank of America</strong></p><p>Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, said: \"Any unexpected 1 million barrels per day change in supply and demand conditions over a one-year period will impact oil prices by $20 to $25 per barrel.\"</p><p>\"If Brent crude oil prices trade above $80 a barrel, OPEC is no longer worried about a major reaction to U.S. shale supply, so cutting production to push oil prices higher will not pose the same risk as it did five years ago,\" he said.</p><p>Still, it's unclear how much of the planned cuts will be implemented into actual production, as OPEC has historically been unable to fully implement the agreed cuts, he said. Bank of America maintained its forecast for Brent crude to exceed $90 a barrel in the second half of the year.</p><p><strong>Citigroup</strong></p><p>Citi analysts, including Ed Morse and Francesco Martoccia, said: \"OPEC + has reverted its recently abandoned decision to become the'central banker 'of oil.\"</p><p>\"Given the extremely low allocation of managed funds, low position interest rates and high volatility, the market can expect a price overshoot, just as Fed tightening and banking turmoil caused prices to fall far more than they should two weeks ago,\" they said.</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a></strong></p><p>According to RBC Capital Markets analysts, including Helima Croft and Christopher Louney, OPEC + 's unexpected production cuts could reduce actual production by about 700,000 barrels per day, despite news reporting figures of about 1.65 million barrels per day.</p><p>However, the move can be interpreted as a signal that Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners will seek to deter further macro selling. They believe that Saudi Arabia has clearly expressed its concerns about the aggressive actions of the Federal Reserve, macro uncertainty and the excessive bearish tendency of the market.</p><p><strong>ANZ Bank</strong></p><p>Daniel Hynes, senior commodities strategist at ANZ, said the chances of oil reaching $100 before the end of the year \"definitely increased\" after these measures.</p><p>\"Like everyone else in the market, I am very surprised by this move,\" he said. \"This measure really sends a very strong signal to the market that they will support oil prices.\"</p><p><strong>Australia Commonwealth Bank</strong></p><p>Vivek Dhar, head of mining and energy commodities research at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the output cuts announced by OPEC + will account for \"around 1.1% of global supply in the next two months and around 1.6% of global supply in the second half of this year.\"</p><p>He added that the eight countries that plan to cut production do have the ability to do so. \"So a production cut of more than 1 million barrels per day can be a reality,\" Dhar said. \"People should pay attention to these cuts because they are actually achievable.\"</p><p><strong>Nordic Bank of Sweden</strong></p><p>\"With U.S. oil production growth slowing, there is limited risk of market share being lost to U.S. shale, so it is easy for OPEC + to cut production,\" said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Sweden's Nordic Bank. \"The natural consequence of slowing U.S. shale oil growth is that OPEC + has greater market power and higher oil prices.\"</p><p>He said production cuts would help push Brent back to $100 a barrel more quickly as global jet fuel demand recovers.</p><p>Schieldrop has previously believed that OPEC still has huge room for further production cuts. \"This holds true even after recent production cuts. As a result, downside risks to oil prices are limited,\" he said.</p><p><strong>Vanda Insights</strong></p><p>Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore-based oil consultancy Vanda Insights, said: \"This move may leave the market with a supply shortage in the second quarter, rather than the oversupply previously expected.\"</p><p>She added: \"Rising oil prices could dampen some crude oil demand and exacerbate the stubborn inflation that major central banks are trying to contain, increasing the risk of recession.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/905410.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/783b90f4f58142af1f2aa989e35dc732","relate_stocks":{"SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/905410.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2324832862","content_text":"OPEC+削减石油产量的决定令市场大吃一惊，因为该组织领导人沙特阿拉伯早些时候曾表示将按兵不动。此举重新点燃了人们对通胀和经济衰退的担忧。美国白宫称，在目前的市场条件下，OPEC+的决定是不明智的，并补充说，美国将与生产者和消费者合作，重点关注美国的汽油价格。市场对OPEC+减产迅速做出反应。周一布伦特原油价格一度飙升8%。美国两年期国债收益率跃升7个基点，至4.10%，而基准10年期国债收益率攀升5个基点，至3.52%。美元现货指数上涨0.2%，为连续第二天上涨，反映出市场押注美联储将进一步加息。以下是分析人士对OPEC+减产的看法：高盛Daan Struyven和Callum Bruce等高盛分析师表示:“与过去相比，OPEC+拥有非常强大的定价权。”“OPEC+意外减产符合他们先发制人的新原则，因为他们可以在不大幅损失市场份额的情况下采取行动。”再加上俄罗斯延长减产，这家华尔街巨头将今年12月的布伦特原油预测从此前的每桶90美元上调至95美元，并将2024年12月的价格预测上调至100美元。高盛补充称，与去年10月OPEC+减产不同，由于中国需求强劲复苏和炼油利润率坚挺，全球石油需求的势头是积极的。美国银行美国银行大宗商品和衍生品研究主管Francisco Blanch表示:“在一年的时间里，供需状况发生任何意外的100万桶/日变化，都会对油价造成每桶20至25美元的影响。”他表示:“如果布伦特原油价格在每桶80美元以上交易，OPEC不再担心美国页岩油供应的重大反应，因此削减产量推高油价不会像五年前那样带来风险。”他表示，尽管如此，目前尚不清楚计划中的减产有多少会落实到实际产量上，因为OPEC历史上一直未能完全实施商定的减产。美国银行维持布伦特原油在今年下半年超过每桶90美元的预测。花旗集团包括Ed Morse和Francesco Martoccia在内的花旗分析师表示:“OPEC+恢复了最近放弃的成为石油‘央行行长’的决定。”他们表示：“考虑到极低的管理资金配置、低持仓利率和高波动性，市场可以预期价格会出现超调，就像美联储收紧政策和银行业动荡导致两周前的价格下跌幅度远远超过了应有的水平。”加拿大皇家银行据包括Helima Croft和Christopher Louney在内的加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师称，OPEC+的意外减产可能导致实际产量减少约70万桶/天，尽管新闻报道的数字约为165万桶/天。不过，此举可以被解读为一个信号，即沙特阿拉伯及其OPEC伙伴将寻求阻止进一步的宏观抛售。他们认为，沙特明确表达了对美联储激进行动、宏观不确定性以及市场过度看空倾向的担忧。澳新银行澳新银行高级大宗商品策略师Daniel Hynes表示，在这些措施出台后，油价在年底前达到100美元的可能性“肯定增加了”。他表示:“和市场上的其他人一样，我对这一举动感到非常惊讶。”“这项措施确实向市场发出了一个非常强烈的信号，即他们将支持油价。”澳大利亚联邦银行澳大利亚联邦银行矿业和能源大宗商品研究主管Vivek Dhar表示，OPEC+宣布的减产将“占未来两个月全球供应量的1.1%左右，占今年下半年全球供应量的1.6%左右”。他补充说，计划减产的8个国家确实有能力这样做。Dhar表示:“因此，每天减产超过100万桶可以成为现实。”“人们应该关注这些削减，因为它们实际上是可以实现的。”瑞典北欧斯安银行瑞典北欧斯安银行首席大宗商品分析师Bjarne Schieldrop表示:“随着美国石油产量增长放缓，市场份额被美国页岩油抢走的风险有限，因此OPEC+很容易削减产量。”“美国页岩油增长放缓的自然结果是，OPEC+的市场力量更大，油价更高。”他表示，随着全球航空燃油需求复苏，减产将有助于推动布伦特原油更快回到每桶100美元的水平。Schieldrop之前曾认为，OPEC仍有进一步减产的巨大空间。他表示：“即使在最近的减产之后，这一点仍然成立。其结果是，油价下行风险有限。”Vanda Insights新加坡石油咨询公司Vanda Insights创始人Vandana Hari表示:“此举可能会使市场在第二季度出现供应短缺，而不是此前预期的供应过剩。”她补充称:“油价上涨可能会抑制部分原油需求，并加剧各大央行试图遏制的顽固通胀，增加衰退风险。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SCO":1,"CLmain":1,"USO":1,"BZmain":1,"UCO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940531648,"gmtCreate":1678021636084,"gmtModify":1678021639429,"author":{"id":"3584267972657287","authorId":"3584267972657287","name":"财米游言","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1516ab44d3460e0b97830666a8c1a44","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584267972657287","idStr":"3584267972657287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940531648","repostId":"1157059208","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920974556,"gmtCreate":1670426644775,"gmtModify":1676538365758,"author":{"id":"3584267972657287","authorId":"3584267972657287","name":"财米游言","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1516ab44d3460e0b97830666a8c1a44","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584267972657287","idStr":"3584267972657287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Black story&nbsp;","listText":"Black story&nbsp;","text":"Black story","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920974556","repostId":"1132239927","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132239927","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1670414482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132239927?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-07 20:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Blackstone suffered a crazy run: another financial thunder","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132239927","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"威力有多大？黑石集团，新世纪华尔街之王，坐拥近万亿美元资产，全球最大的私募股权基金和资产管理公司。它在全球金融江湖呼风唤雨，不可一世。黑石的老板是史蒂芬.斯瓦茨曼，土生土长的犹太裔美国人。他给自己起了","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>How powerful is it?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>Group, the king of Wall Street in the new century, sits on nearly one trillion dollars in assets and is the world's largest private equity fund and asset management company. It is powerful in the global financial arena and lake.</p><p>Blackstone's boss is Stephen Swartzman, a native Jewish American. He gave himself a nice Chinese name-Su Shimin. In China, he became famous because he spent 61 billion yuan to take over Pan Shiyi in 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00410\">SOHO China</a>All assets.</p><p>During the years of the epidemic, Schwarzman made a bold decision to aggressively expand his real estate business while taking advantage of the flood of low dollars. In 2021, the management scale of Blackstone Real Estate will surpass the traditional private equity business in one fell swoop and become the group's largest core asset sector. In 2022, the real estate business will raise US $33.5 billion, far exceeding the US $22.5 billion raised by private equity.</p><p>Everything is wonderful, and I thought I could continue. But the music suddenly came to an abrupt end, and it seems that it has long been doomed.</p><p><b>01、</b><b>Run storm</b></p><p>On December 1st, Blackstone sent a letter to clients saying that the Real Estate Income Trust Fund (BRIET) only had 0.3% of its net assets available for investors to redeem funds in December. The redemption rule of the fund is that it shall not exceed 2% of the net assets per month, and the cumulative net assets in a single quarter shall not exceed 5%.</p><p>The move spooked investors in the stock market. That night, the stock price once crashed by 12%, and still fell by more than 7% at the close. In the last 16 trading days, Blackstone has plummeted by 28%. The current price has also plummeted by 44% compared with the historical peak, evaporating the market value of 45 billion US dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe5fda31a4cc590bec595905aba7c7b\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Blackstone experienced a wave of runs and made an emergency decision. In October this year, investors applied for redemption funds of up to US $1.8 billion, accounting for 2.7% of the company's net assets. Although the quota exceeds the standard, it still fulfills the contract 100%. By November, more investors requested redemptions, and Blackstone encountered difficulties, accepting only 43% of applications, totaling $1.3 billion. Fund investors became increasingly panicked, and the December redemption sell order flocked in.<b>Blackstone couldn't resist it, and there were signs of liquidity crisis, and the redemption ratio plummeted from 2% to 0.3%.</b></p><p>Blackstone itself admits that there is not much liquidity that can be directly used, only $9.3 billion. If necessary, he will have to sell the $9 billion in bonds he holds.</p><p>In response to the run crisis, Blackstone began to sell real estate. On December 2, the company announced that it planned to pay US $1.27 billion to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MGM\">MGM</a>49.9% of the shares of Grand Hotel and Mandalay Bay Resort were sold to VICI, which also holds the remaining shares of these two well-known Las Vegas landmarks. After the acquisition, these two landmark properties will be wholly owned.</p><p>If investors continue to withdraw funds on a large scale, Blackstone may face the same experience as Evergrande. You know, the scale of Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust Fund is as high as US $125 billion, and its investment fields are all extremely illiquid real estate, including apartment buildings, industrial office parks, casinos, logistics facilities, etc.</p><p>Since its establishment in 2017, the BRIET fund has a brilliant record-the annualized rate of return is as high as 13%, and the dividend yield is 4.4%. With such brilliant and stable performance, why do investors run on a large scale?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d65ff1d2fc6429340cb231cb0f5ed56b\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In my opinion, it is a good decision for smart investors to cash out at a high level and be safe.</b>According to Blackstone statistics, since the beginning of this year, BRIET funds have returned as much as 9.3%, while publicly traded REIT indexes have fallen by more than 3% during the same period. Separately, REIT peer Vangard's Real Estate ETF (VQN) has delivered a total return of-13% this year.</p><p>The BRIET fund is not traded on the exchange, and its real estate pricing and evaluation are all decided by Blackstone itself, so there is a risk of overestimating the net asset value. In terms of peers, the performance of BRIET funds is indeed too optimistic. For investors, this year's profits are not bad, asset prices are still overvalued, and they won't leave the market until they cash out. What are you waiting for?</p><p>Of course, this is not the only core reason to sell the fund. More importantly, under the background of the crazy rate hike of mainstream central banks in the world, the global real estate market will face a severe test, and the decline in house prices is inevitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa3c697d9096ef1ccff3dfbf14014ae\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The liquidity crisis encountered by Blackstone has just begun.</b></p><p><b>02、</b><b>The property market is frozen</b></p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, European and American central banks carried out ultra-large monetary easing policies. Cheap money is constantly printed by crazy printing presses and flocks to all kinds of financial assets and physical fields, creating unprecedented asset bubbles and the highest global inflation in 40 years.</p><p>Real estate will naturally enjoy the capital bubble bath.<b>According to OECD data, the average house price in 34 member countries is up 35% compared with 2019.</b>Among them, from March 2020 to June 2022, U.S. house prices rose by an astonishing 42%.</p><p>Bubble carnival is unsustainable after all. Inflation is menacing, and the Federal Reserve has led central banks around the world to embark on violent rate hike. If it increases seven times a year, the rate hike may be as high as 450 basis points (50BP is expected in December), superimposed with a sharp shrinking balance sheet, and the degree of currency tightening will be the fastest in 40 years.</p><p>Interest rates reversed and rose massively, freezing the U.S. housing market.</p><p>In October this year, the confidence index of American homebuyers dropped rapidly to 39, the lowest level since 1980s. Homebuilders, too, lacked confidence and were cut in half within a few months. In November, the NAHB real estate index was only 33, close to the lowest point during the COVID-19 lockdown in May 2020 and lower than the level in February 2007. You know, the NAHB index is a leading indicator of U.S. home sales and overall spending. An index above 50 indicates that the housing market is expanding, and below 50 indicates that it is contracting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b823c321ba47b25f7e6a2a48ceac7e7\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In October, the total number of existing home sales in the United States recorded 4.43 million units on an annualized basis, a new low since December 2011, a month-on-month decrease of 5.9%. It was the nine consecutive months of decline and the longest losing streak in history. The losing streak has even exceeded the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>According to a survey of 53 metropolitan areas in the United States conducted by international real estate company RE/MAX, total home sales in the United States in October fell by 13.5% month-on-month and 30.7% year-on-year. The report also noted that homes for sale are up 36.8% from a year ago, and it takes an average of 35 days for homes to sell after they hit the market.</p><p><b>The confidence of real estate buyers and sellers is seriously insufficient, and the transaction volume is cooling rapidly, which is also an important signal that house prices are about to begin to show an inflection point.</b></p><p>In September this year, the composite index of housing prices in 20 major cities in the United States rose by 10.4% year-on-year, down 2.7 percentage points from the previous value of 13.1%. On a month-on-month basis, house prices in San Francisco and Seattle fell the most, both falling by 2.9%, Las Vegas fell by 2.4%, and Phoenix fell by 2.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fca640780801809392883b38effa8e3\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. house prices have peaked and fallen, and recording an optimistic decline will be an overwhelming probability event.</b>According to KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk, home prices in the United States may fall by 15% in 2023.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is believed that the adjustment of U.S. housing prices has just begun. The Case-Schiller National House Price Index will fall by 4% year-on-year in 2023. From June 2022 to the end of 2024, U.S. housing prices will fall by about 10% from their peak.</p><p>Why did it fall so much?</p><p>This year, the 30-year mortgage interest rate rose from 2.98% at the beginning of the year to 7.1%, setting a new high in 2002. Rates are still as high as 6.49% right now. This will be a major blow to investors and people who just need to buy houses. Under the pressure of high inflation, the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a long time next year, and the huge pressure on real estate will not decrease sharply.</p><p>In 2023, the possible deep recession of the U.S. economy will also hit the real estate market hard.</p><p>At present, the forward-looking indicators of the U.S. economy, the manufacturing PMI and the service PMI, have fallen within the 50 boom-bust line for several months. The crude oil market is also truly reflecting the realistic logic of slowing demand in the global economy (including the United States). Currently, the price of WTI crude oil futures is only US $74, once again hitting a new low for the year.</p><p>In terms of financial indicators, the yields of 2-year and 10-year Treasury Bond have recently inverted by as much as 80 basis points, the largest since 1981. The indicator tends to be seen as a relatively accurate leading signal of a U.S. recession. Since 1988, the phenomenon of inversion has occurred roughly four times, all of which have triggered the subsequent economic recession and crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e33433580e0406dc5f396ce7398f401b\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Judging from various data and logical deductions, the U.S. economy will begin to usher in a rapid decline in the first quarter of next year. In fact, we can also get clues from the wave of layoffs in Silicon Valley and Wall Street in the United States.<b>Giant groups are strengthening risk aversion measures, and it also shows that the U.S. economy in 2023 may be worse than expected.</b></p><p>The U.S. real estate market will become more and more frozen, which will bring greater impact and trouble to Blackstone. After all, more than 70% of BRIET's assets are invested in the west and south of the United States.</p><p><b>03、</b><b>Epilogue</b></p><p>Overseas property market bubbles burst one by one.</p><p>In New Zealand, house prices fell 11% in October from their peak in January this year. In Sweden, house prices in September also dropped by 11% from their peak in March. On the Canadian side, national home prices fell 3.1% month-on-month in September, the biggest monthly decline since traceable data became available in 1999. In South Korea, the national apartment price fell by 1.20% month-on-month in October, which was the largest monthly decline since the data was collected in November 2003. The apartment price in Seoul fell by 1.24% month-on-month, which exceeded the overall decline, and fell for the ninth consecutive month.</p><p>The latest report of Oxford Research Institute predicts that house prices in Canada may drop by 30%, house prices in New Zealand may drop by 20% and house prices in Australia may drop by as much as 20%. This is the most worrying prospect of the property market in 2007-2008.</p><p>Under the avalanche, no snowflake is innocent. Of course, it also includes Blackstone Group, which expanded its real estate business during the epidemic. Su Shimin is over 70 years old and has experienced eight major crises without failing. It is hoped that this major liquidity crisis can also be narrowly passed.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Blackstone suffered a crazy run: another financial thunder</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackstone suffered a crazy run: another financial thunder\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-07 20:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>How powerful is it?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>Group, the king of Wall Street in the new century, sits on nearly one trillion dollars in assets and is the world's largest private equity fund and asset management company. It is powerful in the global financial arena and lake.</p><p>Blackstone's boss is Stephen Swartzman, a native Jewish American. He gave himself a nice Chinese name-Su Shimin. In China, he became famous because he spent 61 billion yuan to take over Pan Shiyi in 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00410\">SOHO China</a>All assets.</p><p>During the years of the epidemic, Schwarzman made a bold decision to aggressively expand his real estate business while taking advantage of the flood of low dollars. In 2021, the management scale of Blackstone Real Estate will surpass the traditional private equity business in one fell swoop and become the group's largest core asset sector. In 2022, the real estate business will raise US $33.5 billion, far exceeding the US $22.5 billion raised by private equity.</p><p>Everything is wonderful, and I thought I could continue. But the music suddenly came to an abrupt end, and it seems that it has long been doomed.</p><p><b>01、</b><b>Run storm</b></p><p>On December 1st, Blackstone sent a letter to clients saying that the Real Estate Income Trust Fund (BRIET) only had 0.3% of its net assets available for investors to redeem funds in December. The redemption rule of the fund is that it shall not exceed 2% of the net assets per month, and the cumulative net assets in a single quarter shall not exceed 5%.</p><p>The move spooked investors in the stock market. That night, the stock price once crashed by 12%, and still fell by more than 7% at the close. In the last 16 trading days, Blackstone has plummeted by 28%. The current price has also plummeted by 44% compared with the historical peak, evaporating the market value of 45 billion US dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe5fda31a4cc590bec595905aba7c7b\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Blackstone experienced a wave of runs and made an emergency decision. In October this year, investors applied for redemption funds of up to US $1.8 billion, accounting for 2.7% of the company's net assets. Although the quota exceeds the standard, it still fulfills the contract 100%. By November, more investors requested redemptions, and Blackstone encountered difficulties, accepting only 43% of applications, totaling $1.3 billion. Fund investors became increasingly panicked, and the December redemption sell order flocked in.<b>Blackstone couldn't resist it, and there were signs of liquidity crisis, and the redemption ratio plummeted from 2% to 0.3%.</b></p><p>Blackstone itself admits that there is not much liquidity that can be directly used, only $9.3 billion. If necessary, he will have to sell the $9 billion in bonds he holds.</p><p>In response to the run crisis, Blackstone began to sell real estate. On December 2, the company announced that it planned to pay US $1.27 billion to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MGM\">MGM</a>49.9% of the shares of Grand Hotel and Mandalay Bay Resort were sold to VICI, which also holds the remaining shares of these two well-known Las Vegas landmarks. After the acquisition, these two landmark properties will be wholly owned.</p><p>If investors continue to withdraw funds on a large scale, Blackstone may face the same experience as Evergrande. You know, the scale of Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust Fund is as high as US $125 billion, and its investment fields are all extremely illiquid real estate, including apartment buildings, industrial office parks, casinos, logistics facilities, etc.</p><p>Since its establishment in 2017, the BRIET fund has a brilliant record-the annualized rate of return is as high as 13%, and the dividend yield is 4.4%. With such brilliant and stable performance, why do investors run on a large scale?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d65ff1d2fc6429340cb231cb0f5ed56b\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In my opinion, it is a good decision for smart investors to cash out at a high level and be safe.</b>According to Blackstone statistics, since the beginning of this year, BRIET funds have returned as much as 9.3%, while publicly traded REIT indexes have fallen by more than 3% during the same period. Separately, REIT peer Vangard's Real Estate ETF (VQN) has delivered a total return of-13% this year.</p><p>The BRIET fund is not traded on the exchange, and its real estate pricing and evaluation are all decided by Blackstone itself, so there is a risk of overestimating the net asset value. In terms of peers, the performance of BRIET funds is indeed too optimistic. For investors, this year's profits are not bad, asset prices are still overvalued, and they won't leave the market until they cash out. What are you waiting for?</p><p>Of course, this is not the only core reason to sell the fund. More importantly, under the background of the crazy rate hike of mainstream central banks in the world, the global real estate market will face a severe test, and the decline in house prices is inevitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa3c697d9096ef1ccff3dfbf14014ae\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The liquidity crisis encountered by Blackstone has just begun.</b></p><p><b>02、</b><b>The property market is frozen</b></p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, European and American central banks carried out ultra-large monetary easing policies. Cheap money is constantly printed by crazy printing presses and flocks to all kinds of financial assets and physical fields, creating unprecedented asset bubbles and the highest global inflation in 40 years.</p><p>Real estate will naturally enjoy the capital bubble bath.<b>According to OECD data, the average house price in 34 member countries is up 35% compared with 2019.</b>Among them, from March 2020 to June 2022, U.S. house prices rose by an astonishing 42%.</p><p>Bubble carnival is unsustainable after all. Inflation is menacing, and the Federal Reserve has led central banks around the world to embark on violent rate hike. If it increases seven times a year, the rate hike may be as high as 450 basis points (50BP is expected in December), superimposed with a sharp shrinking balance sheet, and the degree of currency tightening will be the fastest in 40 years.</p><p>Interest rates reversed and rose massively, freezing the U.S. housing market.</p><p>In October this year, the confidence index of American homebuyers dropped rapidly to 39, the lowest level since 1980s. Homebuilders, too, lacked confidence and were cut in half within a few months. In November, the NAHB real estate index was only 33, close to the lowest point during the COVID-19 lockdown in May 2020 and lower than the level in February 2007. You know, the NAHB index is a leading indicator of U.S. home sales and overall spending. An index above 50 indicates that the housing market is expanding, and below 50 indicates that it is contracting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b823c321ba47b25f7e6a2a48ceac7e7\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In October, the total number of existing home sales in the United States recorded 4.43 million units on an annualized basis, a new low since December 2011, a month-on-month decrease of 5.9%. It was the nine consecutive months of decline and the longest losing streak in history. The losing streak has even exceeded the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>According to a survey of 53 metropolitan areas in the United States conducted by international real estate company RE/MAX, total home sales in the United States in October fell by 13.5% month-on-month and 30.7% year-on-year. The report also noted that homes for sale are up 36.8% from a year ago, and it takes an average of 35 days for homes to sell after they hit the market.</p><p><b>The confidence of real estate buyers and sellers is seriously insufficient, and the transaction volume is cooling rapidly, which is also an important signal that house prices are about to begin to show an inflection point.</b></p><p>In September this year, the composite index of housing prices in 20 major cities in the United States rose by 10.4% year-on-year, down 2.7 percentage points from the previous value of 13.1%. On a month-on-month basis, house prices in San Francisco and Seattle fell the most, both falling by 2.9%, Las Vegas fell by 2.4%, and Phoenix fell by 2.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fca640780801809392883b38effa8e3\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. house prices have peaked and fallen, and recording an optimistic decline will be an overwhelming probability event.</b>According to KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk, home prices in the United States may fall by 15% in 2023.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is believed that the adjustment of U.S. housing prices has just begun. The Case-Schiller National House Price Index will fall by 4% year-on-year in 2023. From June 2022 to the end of 2024, U.S. housing prices will fall by about 10% from their peak.</p><p>Why did it fall so much?</p><p>This year, the 30-year mortgage interest rate rose from 2.98% at the beginning of the year to 7.1%, setting a new high in 2002. Rates are still as high as 6.49% right now. This will be a major blow to investors and people who just need to buy houses. Under the pressure of high inflation, the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a long time next year, and the huge pressure on real estate will not decrease sharply.</p><p>In 2023, the possible deep recession of the U.S. economy will also hit the real estate market hard.</p><p>At present, the forward-looking indicators of the U.S. economy, the manufacturing PMI and the service PMI, have fallen within the 50 boom-bust line for several months. The crude oil market is also truly reflecting the realistic logic of slowing demand in the global economy (including the United States). Currently, the price of WTI crude oil futures is only US $74, once again hitting a new low for the year.</p><p>In terms of financial indicators, the yields of 2-year and 10-year Treasury Bond have recently inverted by as much as 80 basis points, the largest since 1981. The indicator tends to be seen as a relatively accurate leading signal of a U.S. recession. Since 1988, the phenomenon of inversion has occurred roughly four times, all of which have triggered the subsequent economic recession and crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e33433580e0406dc5f396ce7398f401b\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Judging from various data and logical deductions, the U.S. economy will begin to usher in a rapid decline in the first quarter of next year. In fact, we can also get clues from the wave of layoffs in Silicon Valley and Wall Street in the United States.<b>Giant groups are strengthening risk aversion measures, and it also shows that the U.S. economy in 2023 may be worse than expected.</b></p><p>The U.S. real estate market will become more and more frozen, which will bring greater impact and trouble to Blackstone. After all, more than 70% of BRIET's assets are invested in the west and south of the United States.</p><p><b>03、</b><b>Epilogue</b></p><p>Overseas property market bubbles burst one by one.</p><p>In New Zealand, house prices fell 11% in October from their peak in January this year. In Sweden, house prices in September also dropped by 11% from their peak in March. On the Canadian side, national home prices fell 3.1% month-on-month in September, the biggest monthly decline since traceable data became available in 1999. In South Korea, the national apartment price fell by 1.20% month-on-month in October, which was the largest monthly decline since the data was collected in November 2003. The apartment price in Seoul fell by 1.24% month-on-month, which exceeded the overall decline, and fell for the ninth consecutive month.</p><p>The latest report of Oxford Research Institute predicts that house prices in Canada may drop by 30%, house prices in New Zealand may drop by 20% and house prices in Australia may drop by as much as 20%. This is the most worrying prospect of the property market in 2007-2008.</p><p>Under the avalanche, no snowflake is innocent. Of course, it also includes Blackstone Group, which expanded its real estate business during the epidemic. Su Shimin is over 70 years old and has experienced eight major crises without failing. It is hoped that this major liquidity crisis can also be narrowly passed.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1809e27051e8cdce9de7de16a0c4b29c","relate_stocks":{"159940":"金融","BX":"黑石","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132239927","content_text":"威力有多大？黑石集团，新世纪华尔街之王，坐拥近万亿美元资产，全球最大的私募股权基金和资产管理公司。它在全球金融江湖呼风唤雨，不可一世。黑石的老板是史蒂芬.斯瓦茨曼，土生土长的犹太裔美国人。他给自己起了一个好听的中文名——苏世民。在中国，他名声大噪，是因为2020年斥资610亿元接盘潘石屹SOHO中国全部资产。疫情几年间，苏世民做了一个大胆的决定，趁着泛滥低廉的美元大肆扩张房地产业务。2021年，黑石不动产管理规模一举超过私募股权传统业务，成为集团第一大核心资产板块。2022年，不动产业务募集了335亿美元，远超过私募股权225亿美元的募集规模。一切美妙，原本以为可以继续。但音乐突然戛然而止，似乎也早已命中注定。01、挤兑风波12月1日，黑石给客户致信称，房地产收益信托基金（BRIET）12月只有占净资产规模0.3%的额度可供投资者赎回资金。而该基金赎回规则是每个月不超过净资产规模的2%，单个季度累计不超过净资产的5%。这一举措吓坏了股票市场的投资者。当夜，股价一度闪崩12%，收盘仍大跌逾7%。最近16个交易日，黑石狂泻28%。现价较历史高峰也已经大幅暴跌44%，蒸发市值450亿美元。黑石经历了一波挤兑，紧急出此下策。今年10月，投资者赎回资金申请高达18亿美元，占到公司净资产规模的2.7%。虽然额度超标，但仍然100%履约。到了11月，更多投资者要求赎回，黑石遭遇困境，仅仅受理了43%的申请，总计13亿美元。基金投资者愈发恐慌，12月赎回卖盘蜂拥而入。黑石招架不住，出现了流动性危机征兆，赎回额比例从2%骤降至0.3%。黑石自己也承认手里可以直接动用的流动性资金并不多，仅仅93亿美元。如果有需要，就得卖出手里握有的90亿美元的债券。为了应对挤兑危机，黑石方面开始行动卖出不动产。12月2日，该公司宣布，拟作价12.7亿美元将美高梅大酒店和曼德勒海湾度假村的49.9%股份卖给VICI，后者也持有这两个拉斯维加斯知名地标的剩余股权，收购后将全资拥有这两个地标房产。如果投资者继续大规模撤资，黑石恐怕将面临恒大一样的遭遇。要知道，黑石房地产收益信托基金规模高达1250亿美元，投资领域均是流动性极差的不动产，包括公寓楼、工业办公园区、赌场、物流设施等等。而从2017年成立以来，BRIET基金有辉煌的战绩——年化收益率高达13%，同时分红收益率为4.4%。如此亮眼、如此稳定的业绩表现，为何投资者会大规模挤兑呢？在我看来，聪明投资者高位套现，落袋为安是一个尚佳决策。据黑石统计，今年以来，BRIET基金回报率高达9.3%，而同期公开交易的REIT指数下跌逾3%。另外，房地产信托基金同行Vangard旗下房地产ETF（VQN）今年总回报率为-13%。BRIET基金不在交易所交易，其不动产定价与评估都是黑石自己说了算，存在资产净值评估过高的风险。参照同行而言，BRIET基金表现确实太过于乐观了。对于投资者而言，今年盈利还不错，资产价格还被高估，不套现不离场，还等什么呢？当然，这并不是卖出基金的唯一核心理由。更为重要的是，在全球主流央行疯狂加息的大背景下，全球房地产市场将迎来严峻考验，房价下跌无法避免。黑石遭遇的流动性危机，才刚刚拉开序幕。02、楼市冰封新冠疫情期间，欧美央行开展了超大规模的货币宽松政策。廉价的货币被疯狂的印刷机不断印刷出来，涌向各类金融资产以及实体领域，造就了史无前例的资产泡沫以及40年以来最高的全球大通胀。房地产自然也会享受资本泡沫浴。据经合组织数据显示，34个成员国的平均房价较2019年上涨35%。其中在2020年3月至2022年6月，美国房价惊人上涨42%。泡沫狂欢，终究不可持续。通胀来势汹汹，美联储带领全球央行开始暴力加息。一年加7次，加息幅度可能会高达450个基点（12月预计50BP），叠加大幅缩表，货币紧转弯程度创40年最快。利率反转大规模上涨，冰冻了美国房地产市场。今年10月，美国购房者信心指数快速滑落至39，创下1980年代以来最低水平。房屋建筑商也一样，信心不足，几个月之内被腰斩。11月，NAHB房地产指数仅仅只有33，接近2020年5月新冠封锁时的最低点，低于2007年2月的水平。要知道，NAHB指数是美国房屋销售以及整体支出的一个领先指标。指数高于50，表明房地产市场在扩张，低于50表明在收缩。美国10月成屋销售总数年化录得443万户，创2011年12月以来的新低，环比下降5.9%，为连续9个月下滑，创有史以来最长连跌纪录，连跌周期甚至已超过2008年次贷危机时期。另据国际房地产公司RE/MAX调查了美国53个都会区，10月全美房屋销售总量环比下降了13.5％，同比下降了30.7％。报告还指出，待售房屋比一年前增加了36.8％，房屋上市后平均要35天才能售出。地产买卖双方信心严重不足，成交量快速冷却，亦是房价即将开始出现拐点下跌的重要信号。今年9月，美国20个大城市房价综合指数同比上涨10.4%，较前值13.1%下降2.7个百分点。环比来看，其中旧金山和西雅图房价跌幅最大，均跌2.9%，拉斯维加斯下滑2.4%，凤凰城跌幅为2.2%。美国房价见顶下跌，录得乐观跌幅将会是绝大概率事件。据毕马威首席经济学家Diane Swonk预测，2023年美国的房价或将下跌15%。摩根士丹利则认为，美国房价调整才刚刚开始，凯斯-席勒全美房价指数将于2023年同比下跌4%，2022年6月至2024年底，美国房价将由峰值下滑约10%。为什么会跌这么多？今年，30年期按揭贷款利率从年初的2.98%一路上扬至7.1%，创下2002年的新高。目前利率仍高达6.49%。这对于投资客以及刚需购房人群均会是重大打击。在高通胀的压力下，明年美联储还将维持高利率水平较长时间，对房地产的巨大压力不会锐减。2023年，美国经济可能的深度衰退，也将重创房地产市场。目前，美国经济前瞻性指标制造业PMI、服务业PMI均已经持续数月滑落至50荣枯线以内。原油市场也正在真真切切反应全球经济(包括美国)需求放缓的现实逻辑。目前，WTI原油期货价格仅为74美元，再度创下年内新低。金融指标上，2年期与10年期国债收益率近日倒挂幅度高达80个基点，创下1981年来最大的幅度。该指标往往被视为美国经济衰退的相对准确的领先信号。1988年以来，倒挂现象大致发生了4次，也都引发了后来的经济衰退与危机。从各种数据以及逻辑推演来看，美国经济将会在明年一季度开始迎来快速下滑。其实，我们从美国硅谷、华尔街的裁员潮也能端倪一二。巨擘集团们正为强化避险措施，同时也说明2023年的美国经济可能会比预期差。美国房地产市场会愈加冰封，将给黑石带来更大的冲击与麻烦。毕竟BRIET基金超过70%的资产投资于美国的西部和南部。03、尾声海外楼市泡沫一个一个破裂。在新西兰，10月房价比今年1月峰值时下跌11%。在瑞典，9月房价也比3月时的峰值回落11%。在加拿大方面，9月份全国房价环比下跌3.1%，是自1999年有可追溯数据以来的最大单月跌幅。在韩国，10月全国公寓价格环比下跌1.20%，这是自2003年11月数据统计以来的最大月度跌幅，首尔公寓价格环比下跌1.24%，降幅超过整体，连续第9个月下跌。牛津研究院最新一份报告预测，加拿大房价可能下挫30%，新西兰房价或下滑20%，澳州房价可能下降多达20%。这是2007-2008年最令人担忧的楼市前景。雪崩之下，没有一片雪花是无辜的。当然，也包括在疫情期间大势扩张地产业务的黑石集团。苏世民已经年过7旬，经历八次大危机而不倒。希望这一次重大流动性危机也能惊险过关。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159940":0.9,"BX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9058615742,"gmtCreate":1654828955386,"gmtModify":1676535518880,"author":{"id":"3584267972657287","authorId":"3584267972657287","name":"财米游言","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1516ab44d3460e0b97830666a8c1a44","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584267972657287","idStr":"3584267972657287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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