tay931888 personal page - To The Moon

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tay931888

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2022-03-04

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2022-03-01

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Change | Nasdaq turned up! New Energy Vehicle Stocks Fire, Ideal Rise Over 10%

2022-02-28

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2022-02-26

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2022-02-24

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2022-02-24

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It's about the global economy! 4 Impacts of the Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

2022-02-23

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2022-02-22

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2022-02-21

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Learn from history! How will U.S. stocks perform in the tightening cycle?

2022-02-21

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2022-02-20

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Hong Kong stocks, worthy of our gentle treatment?

2022-02-19

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Ford's short-term rise is rumored to be considering spinning off its electric or gas engine division

2022-02-19

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Roblox fell more than 10% intraday, and its target price was lowered by many major banks after the earnings report

2022-02-19

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Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed for one day on February 21st due to Washington's birthday

2022-02-18

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2022-02-18

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23:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Change | Nasdaq turned up! New Energy Vehicle Stocks Fire, Ideal Rise Over 10%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122487527","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月28日，纳指转涨，此前跌近1%。截至目前，道指下跌0.95%，标普500指数下跌0.66%。美股新能源车概念股持续走高，理想汽车涨超10%，蔚来汽车涨超7%，特斯拉涨超6%，小鹏汽车涨超3%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On February 28th, the Nasdaq turned up, after falling nearly 1%. So far, the Dow is down 0.95% and the S&P 500 is down 0.66%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544bbfdf47cab414ffe02f1ec3d5c59b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>New energy vehicle concept stocks in U.S. stocks continue to rise,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>rose by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It rose by more than 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff49a91e2bf49c78e28804aef792155\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Change | Nasdaq turned up! New Energy Vehicle Stocks Fire, Ideal Rise Over 10%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChange | Nasdaq turned up! New Energy Vehicle Stocks Fire, Ideal Rise Over 10%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-28 23:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On February 28th, the Nasdaq turned up, after falling nearly 1%. So far, the Dow is down 0.95% and the S&P 500 is down 0.66%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544bbfdf47cab414ffe02f1ec3d5c59b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>New energy vehicle concept stocks in U.S. stocks continue to rise,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>rose by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It rose by more than 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff49a91e2bf49c78e28804aef792155\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"161028":"新能源车","399417":"新能源车","BK1587":"次新股","LI":"理想汽车","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","03086":"华夏纳指","BK1588":"回港中概股","02015":"理想汽车-W","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK1575":"同股不同权","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122487527","content_text":"2月28日，纳指转涨，此前跌近1%。截至目前，道指下跌0.95%，标普500指数下跌0.66%。美股新能源车概念股持续走高，理想汽车涨超10%，蔚来汽车涨超7%，特斯拉涨超6%，小鹏汽车涨超3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161028":0.9,"399417":0.9,"LI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"03086":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"02015":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039870444,"gmtCreate":1646009466093,"gmtModify":1676534081559,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039870444","repostId":"2214132600","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030728546,"gmtCreate":1645830673015,"gmtModify":1676534067379,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030728546","repostId":"1150139995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030692015,"gmtCreate":1645702048673,"gmtModify":1676534055101,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Ok","listText":"&nbsp;Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030692015","repostId":"1153372780","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030324389,"gmtCreate":1645652220963,"gmtModify":1676534048140,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp; Ok","listText":"&nbsp; Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030324389","repostId":"2213496312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2213496312","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645586061,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2213496312?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-23 11:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's about the global economy! 4 Impacts of the Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213496312","media":"熊园观察","summary":"摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increased the downward pressure on US stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Fed's rate hike. Event: On February 21st, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the People's Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. The global stock market plummeted, and crude oil and gold soared.</p><p>Core conclusions:</p><p>1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the possibility of evolving into war has greatly increased.</p><p>2. Taking history as a mirror, the performance law of major assets after geopolitical conflicts: in the short term, it will be negative for risk assets, and good for safe-haven assets and energy products. The impact is often concentrated in 10-30 days after the conflict breaks out, and the impact on the medium-and long-term trend of asset prices is weak.</p><p>3. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, there are four possible impacts:</p><p>To the global economy: Russia is likely to face a new round of sanctions; Given that Russia is a major exporter of energy and raw materials in the world, it is necessary to be alert to the derivative risks of rising commodity prices caused by sanctions against Russia. For asset prices: Referring to the above experience, if only this conflict is considered, there will still be downward pressure in the global stock market in the next month, the yield of Treasury Bond will trend downward, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, after one month, the asset price trend will return to the dominance of fundamentals; The prices of steel, corn, wheat, barley, fertilizer and other commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply blockages. For global inflation: pushing up the oil price to a high level in the short term, increasing the global inflationary pressure, among which: 1) the inflation in the United States is still high in the short term, and the inflection point of the decline will also be delayed; 2) For China, according to the calculation, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive CPI and PPI up by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively. It is expected that the annual CPI will still be low before and then high, and it is difficult to change the downward trend of PPI even if the oil price rises; 3) In view of the fact that the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is obviously greater than that of CPI, it will disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor gap in China, and also disturb the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of enterprise profits. On the rhythm of the Fed's rate hike: The Russia-Ukraine conflict will aggravate the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increase the downward pressure on US stocks, thus restricting the pace of the Fed's rate hike. In fact, the Fed's rate hike expectations have begun to cool since mid-February. Maintain the previous judgment: in 2022, the Federal Reserve will be hawk first and pigeon later, and it is expected to raise interest rates 3-4 times throughout the year. The text is as follows:</p><p>1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the possibility of evolving into war has greatly increased. The Russia-Ukraine issue has a long history, among which the core differences lie in \"NATO's eastward expansion\" and \"Ukraine's accession to NATO\". In mid-January 2022, Russia successively held talks with the United States, NATO and OSCE on the situation in Ukraine, but no significant results were achieved. After a month-long game, the conflict between the two sides escalated again: on the 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. At the same time, he ordered \"peacekeeping troops\" to enter the region, which greatly increased the possibility that the conflict between the two sides would turn into war. In response, the United States announced financial sanctions against Russia and warned it was prepared to impose more if necessary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af52f7a91e964f09f82387d80558d85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906fdd0c25182405d6b9ff629db6791\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2. Taking history as a mirror, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on assets: short-term negative risk assets, favorable hedging and resource products, and weak medium and long-term impact</p><p>For better comparison, we select \"five large-scale geopolitical conflicts involving major powers\" since 2000 as the analysis object, including the 2001 Afghanistan War, 2003 Iraq War, 2011 Libya War & Syria War, and 2014 Crimea Referendum. During the outbreak of conflicts, the performance of various asset prices is as follows:</p><p>Stock market: U.S. stocks generally fell in the short term, with a decline range of basically 10-30 days, and then started to rise again; A shares mostly rise in the short term, and there is no consistent law in the medium and long term. The deviation between A shares and US stocks is, on the one hand, because these rounds of geopolitical conflicts have not involved China; on the other hand, the correlation between A shares and US stocks is low before 2015;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e270fdee3a166416e98f5c2fdf52ea3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bond market: The yield of 10Y U.S. bonds generally declined in the short term, and the downward range was also 10-30 days, and then continued to decline after a short rebound; The yield of 10Y Chinese bonds also mostly declined in the short term, and the medium and long-term trend was volatile;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7697addec2acb2db96ccf9e263363fbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index has continued to fall three times, continued to rise one time and fluctuated one time;</p><p>Gold: Spot gold continued to fall twice, rise twice, and then rise once;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0550757b3c7c99d521b0a87637d529a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Crude oil: Crude oil prices generally rise in the short term, and the rising range is also 10-30 days, and there is no consistent law in the medium and long term trend;</p><p>Copper: Copper prices mostly fall in the short term, and the decline range is also 10-30 days. There is no consistent law in the medium and long-term trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e7067c2e912053babb0dedecb700c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Summary of rules: In summary, it can be seen that geopolitical conflicts will be negative for risk assets, safe-haven assets and energy products in the short term, and their impact is often concentrated in 10-30 days after the conflict breaks out, which has a weak impact on the medium-and long-term trend of asset prices.</p><p>3. Four-point deduction of the impact of this Russia-Ukraine conflict: global economy, asset prices, global inflation, and the rhythm of the Federal Reserve's rate hike</p><p>1) Impact on the global economy: If the conflict continues to escalate, Russia will probably face a new round of sanctions, which will also drag down the global economy. As of 2020, Russia's GDP and total import and export goods amounted to US$1.5 trillion and US$569.3 billion, respectively, accounting for 1.7% and 1.6% of the global total, respectively, and it is expected to have limited direct impact on the global economy and trade. However, considering that Russia is the world's leading exporter of energy and raw materials, we should be alert to the risks derived from rising commodity prices caused by sanctions against Russia. For example, in 2020, Russia's natural gas exports were about 199.9 billion cubic meters, accounting for about 16.2% of global natural gas exports, of which about 80% were exported to Europe, accounting for more than 40% of European natural gas imports. If the situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense and the United States and Europe launch a new round of sanctions against Russia, it will further aggravate the natural gas shortage pattern in Europe, thus dragging down the European economy.</p><p>2) Impact on asset prices: Combined with the above analysis, if the fire in Wudong on February 17th is taken as the starting point of the conflict, there will still be downward pressure on the global stock market in the next month, the yield of Treasury Bond will still decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further; But after a month, asset price movement will return to fundamental dominance. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are also important exporters of steel, corn, wheat, barley, fertilizer and other commodities in the world (see Chart 11 for specific commodities and shares). If the conflict between the two sides continues to intensify, the prices of these commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply blockages.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5c88fd3fca5f8262509fb196612c61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82a027493d3e9b071117b063493e8d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3) Impact on inflation: Pushing up oil prices at a high level in the short term, increasing global inflationary pressure, but it is difficult to change the downward trend of China's PPI</p><p>U.S. inflation: still high in the short term, and the inflection point of retreat will also be delayed. In previous reports, we have repeatedly pointed out that inflation in developed countries such as the United States is greatly affected by energy prices. According to a rough estimate, if the average oil price in the next 1-3 months is assumed to be USD 105/barrel, the CPI of the United States from February to March will further rise to about 8% year-on-year; If the oil price can't fall quickly, the inflection point of inflation in the United States may be delayed until around May.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf730b4ac6bfc18f1c5eb4f702a4166\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>China's inflation: According to the calculation, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive CPI and PPI up by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively; Throughout the year, CPI is expected to remain low before and then high, and the upward trend of oil prices is expected to be difficult to change the downward trend of PPI.</p><p>1) CPI: The oil price mainly affects the two sub-items of CPI: residential hydropower fuel and transportation fuel. If the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it will drive the above two sub-items up by 0.8 and 2.3 percentage points respectively. Combined with the weight of the above sub-items in CPI, it can be converted that if the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it may drive the CPI up by 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, the average oil price rose to USD 92.7/barrel in the first 21 days of February, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, which is expected to boost the CPI by about 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Considering the price changes of base, food and non-food items, it is expected that the CPI in February may rise slightly year-on-year. Looking at the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low before and then high, and the annual center may be higher than 2.0% under the benchmark scenario.</p><p>2) PPI: Oil price mainly affects PPI oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing and other sub-items. According to the model, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive PPI oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical industry and chemical fiber up by 7.3, 4.1, 2.0 and 2.2 percentage points respectively. Considering that the above sub-items account for 0.7%, 4.3%, 6.5% and 0.8% of PPI respectively, it can be converted that if the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it may drive PPI up by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, oil prices in February are expected to drive PPI up by about 1.9 percentage points; Considering the price changes of the base and other industrial products, PPI in February may still drop slightly year-on-year. Throughout the year, as the PPI base is rising month by month, it is difficult to change the downward trend of PPI with a high probability of oil price rise.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed90879ecee1fc82d23a7e0d11ddee4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911d90c91485c6f8978e6b5b054adbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor gap & the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of enterprise profit. Based on the previous calculation, the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is obviously greater than that of CPI; Therefore, the rising oil price may disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor difference and the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of profit. Specifically, the upstream profit may still be at a high level in the short term, and the uncertainty of the improvement of the middle and downstream profit will increase. From the industrial perspective, the profits of oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical industry, chemical fiber and other industries are positively correlated with oil prices, while the profits of rubber and plastic industries are negatively correlated with oil prices. If the oil price continues to be at a high level, there may be support for the profitability of industries such as oil and gas extraction, and the suppression on the rubber and plastic industry may persist. (For details, please refer to the previous report \"2022 Earnings Will be Transmitted Upstream and Downstream — Calculation Based on PPI-CPI Scissor Gap\")<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c1dc18b4888a8b1fd254b88563c399\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>4) Impact on the rhythm of the Fed's rate hike: On the one hand, as previously analyzed, this conflict may raise US inflation and delay the inflection point of inflation, but the current Fed's rate hike expectation has fully reflected high inflation; On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increased the downward pressure on U.S. stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Fed's rate hike. On the whole, the interest rate futures data shows that since mid-February, the market expects the number of interest rate hikes in March to drop from 1.7 to 1.2, and the number of interest rate hikes in the whole year to drop from 6.6 to 5.9, reflecting that the rate hike expectation has begun to cool down. Maintaining our previous judgment: In 2022, the Federal Reserve will be hawk first and pigeon later, and it is expected to raise interest rates 3-4 times throughout the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9bbc1d19f9386cdf6bd129a69fefaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risk: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has evolved beyond expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1589878828889","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's about the global economy! 4 Impacts of the Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's about the global economy! 4 Impacts of the Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">熊园观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-23 11:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increased the downward pressure on US stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Fed's rate hike. Event: On February 21st, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the People's Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. The global stock market plummeted, and crude oil and gold soared.</p><p>Core conclusions:</p><p>1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the possibility of evolving into war has greatly increased.</p><p>2. Taking history as a mirror, the performance law of major assets after geopolitical conflicts: in the short term, it will be negative for risk assets, and good for safe-haven assets and energy products. The impact is often concentrated in 10-30 days after the conflict breaks out, and the impact on the medium-and long-term trend of asset prices is weak.</p><p>3. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, there are four possible impacts:</p><p>To the global economy: Russia is likely to face a new round of sanctions; Given that Russia is a major exporter of energy and raw materials in the world, it is necessary to be alert to the derivative risks of rising commodity prices caused by sanctions against Russia. For asset prices: Referring to the above experience, if only this conflict is considered, there will still be downward pressure in the global stock market in the next month, the yield of Treasury Bond will trend downward, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, after one month, the asset price trend will return to the dominance of fundamentals; The prices of steel, corn, wheat, barley, fertilizer and other commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply blockages. For global inflation: pushing up the oil price to a high level in the short term, increasing the global inflationary pressure, among which: 1) the inflation in the United States is still high in the short term, and the inflection point of the decline will also be delayed; 2) For China, according to the calculation, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive CPI and PPI up by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively. It is expected that the annual CPI will still be low before and then high, and it is difficult to change the downward trend of PPI even if the oil price rises; 3) In view of the fact that the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is obviously greater than that of CPI, it will disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor gap in China, and also disturb the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of enterprise profits. On the rhythm of the Fed's rate hike: The Russia-Ukraine conflict will aggravate the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increase the downward pressure on US stocks, thus restricting the pace of the Fed's rate hike. In fact, the Fed's rate hike expectations have begun to cool since mid-February. Maintain the previous judgment: in 2022, the Federal Reserve will be hawk first and pigeon later, and it is expected to raise interest rates 3-4 times throughout the year. The text is as follows:</p><p>1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the possibility of evolving into war has greatly increased. The Russia-Ukraine issue has a long history, among which the core differences lie in \"NATO's eastward expansion\" and \"Ukraine's accession to NATO\". In mid-January 2022, Russia successively held talks with the United States, NATO and OSCE on the situation in Ukraine, but no significant results were achieved. After a month-long game, the conflict between the two sides escalated again: on the 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. At the same time, he ordered \"peacekeeping troops\" to enter the region, which greatly increased the possibility that the conflict between the two sides would turn into war. In response, the United States announced financial sanctions against Russia and warned it was prepared to impose more if necessary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af52f7a91e964f09f82387d80558d85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906fdd0c25182405d6b9ff629db6791\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2. Taking history as a mirror, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on assets: short-term negative risk assets, favorable hedging and resource products, and weak medium and long-term impact</p><p>For better comparison, we select \"five large-scale geopolitical conflicts involving major powers\" since 2000 as the analysis object, including the 2001 Afghanistan War, 2003 Iraq War, 2011 Libya War & Syria War, and 2014 Crimea Referendum. During the outbreak of conflicts, the performance of various asset prices is as follows:</p><p>Stock market: U.S. stocks generally fell in the short term, with a decline range of basically 10-30 days, and then started to rise again; A shares mostly rise in the short term, and there is no consistent law in the medium and long term. The deviation between A shares and US stocks is, on the one hand, because these rounds of geopolitical conflicts have not involved China; on the other hand, the correlation between A shares and US stocks is low before 2015;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e270fdee3a166416e98f5c2fdf52ea3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bond market: The yield of 10Y U.S. bonds generally declined in the short term, and the downward range was also 10-30 days, and then continued to decline after a short rebound; The yield of 10Y Chinese bonds also mostly declined in the short term, and the medium and long-term trend was volatile;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7697addec2acb2db96ccf9e263363fbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index has continued to fall three times, continued to rise one time and fluctuated one time;</p><p>Gold: Spot gold continued to fall twice, rise twice, and then rise once;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0550757b3c7c99d521b0a87637d529a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Crude oil: Crude oil prices generally rise in the short term, and the rising range is also 10-30 days, and there is no consistent law in the medium and long term trend;</p><p>Copper: Copper prices mostly fall in the short term, and the decline range is also 10-30 days. There is no consistent law in the medium and long-term trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e7067c2e912053babb0dedecb700c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Summary of rules: In summary, it can be seen that geopolitical conflicts will be negative for risk assets, safe-haven assets and energy products in the short term, and their impact is often concentrated in 10-30 days after the conflict breaks out, which has a weak impact on the medium-and long-term trend of asset prices.</p><p>3. Four-point deduction of the impact of this Russia-Ukraine conflict: global economy, asset prices, global inflation, and the rhythm of the Federal Reserve's rate hike</p><p>1) Impact on the global economy: If the conflict continues to escalate, Russia will probably face a new round of sanctions, which will also drag down the global economy. As of 2020, Russia's GDP and total import and export goods amounted to US$1.5 trillion and US$569.3 billion, respectively, accounting for 1.7% and 1.6% of the global total, respectively, and it is expected to have limited direct impact on the global economy and trade. However, considering that Russia is the world's leading exporter of energy and raw materials, we should be alert to the risks derived from rising commodity prices caused by sanctions against Russia. For example, in 2020, Russia's natural gas exports were about 199.9 billion cubic meters, accounting for about 16.2% of global natural gas exports, of which about 80% were exported to Europe, accounting for more than 40% of European natural gas imports. If the situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense and the United States and Europe launch a new round of sanctions against Russia, it will further aggravate the natural gas shortage pattern in Europe, thus dragging down the European economy.</p><p>2) Impact on asset prices: Combined with the above analysis, if the fire in Wudong on February 17th is taken as the starting point of the conflict, there will still be downward pressure on the global stock market in the next month, the yield of Treasury Bond will still decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further; But after a month, asset price movement will return to fundamental dominance. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are also important exporters of steel, corn, wheat, barley, fertilizer and other commodities in the world (see Chart 11 for specific commodities and shares). If the conflict between the two sides continues to intensify, the prices of these commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply blockages.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5c88fd3fca5f8262509fb196612c61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82a027493d3e9b071117b063493e8d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3) Impact on inflation: Pushing up oil prices at a high level in the short term, increasing global inflationary pressure, but it is difficult to change the downward trend of China's PPI</p><p>U.S. inflation: still high in the short term, and the inflection point of retreat will also be delayed. In previous reports, we have repeatedly pointed out that inflation in developed countries such as the United States is greatly affected by energy prices. According to a rough estimate, if the average oil price in the next 1-3 months is assumed to be USD 105/barrel, the CPI of the United States from February to March will further rise to about 8% year-on-year; If the oil price can't fall quickly, the inflection point of inflation in the United States may be delayed until around May.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf730b4ac6bfc18f1c5eb4f702a4166\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>China's inflation: According to the calculation, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive CPI and PPI up by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively; Throughout the year, CPI is expected to remain low before and then high, and the upward trend of oil prices is expected to be difficult to change the downward trend of PPI.</p><p>1) CPI: The oil price mainly affects the two sub-items of CPI: residential hydropower fuel and transportation fuel. If the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it will drive the above two sub-items up by 0.8 and 2.3 percentage points respectively. Combined with the weight of the above sub-items in CPI, it can be converted that if the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it may drive the CPI up by 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, the average oil price rose to USD 92.7/barrel in the first 21 days of February, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, which is expected to boost the CPI by about 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Considering the price changes of base, food and non-food items, it is expected that the CPI in February may rise slightly year-on-year. Looking at the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low before and then high, and the annual center may be higher than 2.0% under the benchmark scenario.</p><p>2) PPI: Oil price mainly affects PPI oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing and other sub-items. According to the model, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive PPI oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical industry and chemical fiber up by 7.3, 4.1, 2.0 and 2.2 percentage points respectively. Considering that the above sub-items account for 0.7%, 4.3%, 6.5% and 0.8% of PPI respectively, it can be converted that if the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it may drive PPI up by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, oil prices in February are expected to drive PPI up by about 1.9 percentage points; Considering the price changes of the base and other industrial products, PPI in February may still drop slightly year-on-year. Throughout the year, as the PPI base is rising month by month, it is difficult to change the downward trend of PPI with a high probability of oil price rise.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed90879ecee1fc82d23a7e0d11ddee4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911d90c91485c6f8978e6b5b054adbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor gap & the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of enterprise profit. Based on the previous calculation, the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is obviously greater than that of CPI; Therefore, the rising oil price may disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor difference and the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of profit. Specifically, the upstream profit may still be at a high level in the short term, and the uncertainty of the improvement of the middle and downstream profit will increase. From the industrial perspective, the profits of oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical industry, chemical fiber and other industries are positively correlated with oil prices, while the profits of rubber and plastic industries are negatively correlated with oil prices. If the oil price continues to be at a high level, there may be support for the profitability of industries such as oil and gas extraction, and the suppression on the rubber and plastic industry may persist. (For details, please refer to the previous report \"2022 Earnings Will be Transmitted Upstream and Downstream — Calculation Based on PPI-CPI Scissor Gap\")<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c1dc18b4888a8b1fd254b88563c399\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>4) Impact on the rhythm of the Fed's rate hike: On the one hand, as previously analyzed, this conflict may raise US inflation and delay the inflection point of inflation, but the current Fed's rate hike expectation has fully reflected high inflation; On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increased the downward pressure on U.S. stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Fed's rate hike. On the whole, the interest rate futures data shows that since mid-February, the market expects the number of interest rate hikes in March to drop from 1.7 to 1.2, and the number of interest rate hikes in the whole year to drop from 6.6 to 5.9, reflecting that the rate hike expectation has begun to cool down. Maintaining our previous judgment: In 2022, the Federal Reserve will be hawk first and pigeon later, and it is expected to raise interest rates 3-4 times throughout the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9bbc1d19f9386cdf6bd129a69fefaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risk: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has evolved beyond expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565\">熊园观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bc03fbf058ce151dd2a13f771bc11dc","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","518880":"黄金ETF华安","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","USO":"美国原油ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UGAZ":"三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","UNG":"美国天然气基金","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2213496312","content_text":"摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，全球股市大跌，原油、黄金大涨。核心结论：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突后大类资产的表现规律：短期会利空风险资产，利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。3、如果本次俄乌冲突持续升级，可能的4点影响：对全球经济：俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁；鉴于俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨的衍生风险。对资产价格：参照前述经验，若仅考虑本次冲突，未来一个月内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨，但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导；钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品价格，短期内可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。对全球通胀：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，其中：1）美国通胀短期仍高，回落拐点也将延后；2）对中国，按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%，预计全年CPI仍将前低后高，油价上行也难改PPI下行趋势；3）鉴于油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI，这将扰动我国PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏，也会扰动企业盈利上下游传导节奏。对美联储加息节奏：俄乌冲突将加剧全球经济前景的不确定性，也将加大美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事实上，2月中旬以来，美联储加息预期已开始降温。维持此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。正文如下：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。俄乌问题由来已久，其中核心分歧在于“北约东扩”、“乌克兰加入北约”，2022年1月中旬俄罗斯曾先后与美国、北约、欧安组织就乌克兰局势举行会谈，但未取得明显成效。经过长达1个月的博弈，双方冲突再度升级：21日俄罗斯总统普京签署了承认顿涅茨克人民共和国和卢甘斯克人民共和国的总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，同时下令“维和部队”进入该地区，双方冲突演变成战争的可能性大增。作为回应，美国宣布对俄罗斯实施金融制裁，并警告说如有必要，准备实施更多制裁。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突对资产的影响：短期利空风险资产、利好避险和资源品，中长期影响较弱为了更好地对比，我们选取2000年以来“5次规模较大、涉及主要大国的地缘冲突”作为分析对象，包括2001年阿富汗战争、2003年伊拉克战争、2011年利比亚战争&叙利亚战争，2014年克里米亚公投，冲突爆发期间，各类资产价格的表现情况如下：股市：美股短期普遍下跌，下跌区间基本在10-30天，随后重新开始上涨；A股则短期大多表现为上涨，中长期走势无一致规律。A股与美股背离，一方面是由于这几轮地缘冲突均未涉及中国，另一方面则是2015年之前A股与美股相关性较低；债市：10Y美债收益率短期普遍下行，下行区间同样在10-30天，随后在短暂反弹后继续下行；10Y中债收益率短期也大多下行，中长期走势偏震荡；汇率：美元指数有3次持续下跌、1次持续上涨、1次偏震荡；黄金：现货黄金2次持续下跌、2次持续上涨、1次先跌后涨；原油：原油价格短期普遍上涨，上涨区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律；铜：铜价短期大多下跌，下跌区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律。规律总结：综上梳理可知，地缘冲突短期会利空风险资产、利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。3、本次俄乌冲突影响的4点推演：全球经济、资产价格、全球通胀、美联储加息节奏1）对全球经济的影响：如果冲突继续升级，俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁，也将对全球经济形成拖累。截至2020年，俄罗斯GDP、进出口商品总额分别为1.5万亿美元、5693亿美元，分别占全球的1.7%、1.6%，预计对全球经济和贸易的直接影响有限。但考虑到俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨衍生出来的风险。比如，2020年俄罗斯天然气出口约1999亿立方米，占全球天然气出口的份额约16.2%，其中约80%出口欧洲，占欧洲天然气进口的40%以上，如果后续俄乌局势持续紧张、美欧对俄罗斯开启新一轮制裁，将进一步加剧欧洲天然气短缺格局，从而拖累欧洲经济。2）对资产价格的影响：结合前述分析，若以2月17日乌东地区开火作为冲突爆发的起点，则未来近一个月的时间内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率仍趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨；但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导。此外，俄罗斯和乌克兰也是全球钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品的重要出口国（具体商品和份额见图表11），若双方冲突持续加剧，短期内这些商品的价格可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。3）对通胀的影响：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，但难改我国PPI下行趋势美国通胀：短期仍高，回落拐点也将延迟。前期报告我们多次指出，美国等发达国家通胀受能源价格影响较大。根据粗略估算，若假设油价未来1-3个月均值均为105美元/桶，美国2-3月CPI同比将进一步升至8%左右；若油价无法快速回落，美国通胀拐点时间可能延迟到5月前后。中国通胀：按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%；全年看，CPI预计仍将前低后高，油价上行预计难改PPI下行趋势。1）CPI：油价主要影响CPI居住水电燃料、交通工具用燃料两个分项，如果油价同比上涨10%，将分别带动上述两个分项上涨0.8、2.3个百分点，结合上述分项占CPI的权重，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动CPI同比上行0.09个百分点。短期看，2月前21天油价均值涨至92.7美元/桶，同比增48.8%，预计将提振CPI同比约0.5个百分点，综合考虑基数、食品、非食品分项价格变动，预计2月CPI同比可能小幅回升。全年看，CPI预计仍会维持前低后高，基准情形下全年中枢可能高于2.0%。2）PPI：油价主要影响PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工制造、化纤制造等分项，按照模型测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别带动PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤分项上行7.3、4.1、2.0和2.2个百分点，考虑上述分项占PPI的比重分别为0.7%、4.3%、6.5%和0.8%，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动PPI同比上行0.4个百分点。短期看，2月油价预计拉动PPI上行约1.9个百分点；综合考虑基数及其他工业品价格变动，2月PPI同比可能仍将小幅回落。全年看，由于PPI基数逐月回升，油价上涨大概率难改PPI下行趋势。扰动PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏&企业盈利上下游传导节奏。基于前文的测算，油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI；因此油价上涨可能对PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏和盈利上下游传导节奏均形成扰动。具体看，上游盈利短期可能仍将处于较高水平，中下游盈利改善的不确定性增加。产业视角看，油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤等行业盈利跟油价正相关，橡胶塑料行业盈利跟油价负相关。如果油价持续处于较高水平，油气开采等行业盈利可能存在支撑，对橡胶塑料行业的压制可能持续存在。（详见前期报告《2022年盈利将上下游传导—基于PPI-CPI剪刀差的测算》）4）对美联储加息节奏的影响：一方面，如前分析，本次冲突可能抬升美国通胀并延后通胀拐点，但当前美联储加息预期已充分反映了高通胀；另一方面，俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。综合看，利率期货数据显示，2月中旬以来，市场预期3月加息次数由1.7次降至1.2次，全年加息次数由6.6次降至5.9次，反映出加息预期已开始降温。维持我们此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。风险提示：俄乌冲突超预期演化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"518880":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"CLmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DWT":0.6,"UNG":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDS":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"TNmain":0.9,"QID":0.6,"NGmain":0.9,"DUG":0.6,"BZmain":0.6,"SCO":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"QMmain":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.6,"DWTIF":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.6,"ZBmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.6,"USO":0.6,"UWTIF":0.6,"UGAZ":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"DDM":0.6,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEX":0.6,"UCO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097752910,"gmtCreate":1645573006770,"gmtModify":1676534040192,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097752910","repostId":"2213998229","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":909755578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😌😌😌","listText":"Good 😌😌😌","text":"Good 😌😌😌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097555789","repostId":"2213860349","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097616062,"gmtCreate":1645439670099,"gmtModify":1676534027744,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097616062","repostId":"2212677275","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2212677275","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645411504,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2212677275?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-21 10:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Learn from history! How will U.S. stocks perform in the tightening cycle?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2212677275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, the expectation of radical rate hike has surged, and Wall Street analysts are thinking about a question: How will US stocks react in this tightening cycle?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>In the latest report, it is pointed out that the vast majority of optimists believe that the S&P 500 has been returning positively in the past seven rate hike cycles.<b>But this has almost exclusively occurred in phases where economic growth has accelerated, with returns flattening or falling since 1950 when the economic recovery has slowed.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1e1ffad540c4f6e7aa2033aae33859\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the upcoming tightening cycle, there is an even greater risk,<b>The current valuation of the US stock market is on the high side.</b></p><p>In fact, the S&P 500 before this first rate hike is more expensive than any other rate hike cycle except for the 1999-2000 period.</p><p>Worse, the actual cost of interest on this debt was negative, whereas in 1999 the cost of equity was negative. During the cycle, Federal Funds rate rose 150 basis points and the market moved higher on the rise, but the S&P peaked in March 2000 and then fell 49% over the next two and a half years.</p><p>Considering these two main risk factors, even if the upcoming tightening cycle may be short-lived (Federal Funds rate futures already reflect at least two rate cuts before 2024), Bank of America is in the bear camp this time around.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc5ab5839fdac8ef84d42f03c1885828\" tg-width=\"1648\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond alternatives performed worst, cyclical stocks performed best</b></p><p>Bank of America believes that from the perspective of industry sectors, bond substitution stocks performed the worst, and cyclical sectors performed the best.</p><p>In historical tightening cycles, bond replacement stocks such as utilities and real estate, as well as industrial stocks, have performed worse than the S&P 500.</p><p>The consumer discretionary sector has performed better than the S&P 500 index and outperformed other sectors, but it is currently facing risks brought by high labor intensity and wage pressure.</p><p><b>Other sectors that have historically performed well include technology, energy, materials, and consumer goods.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2396603b1b718b964d5584d7b23d32\" tg-width=\"1508\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>But in the rate hike cycle, the industry alpha is more dispersed, and the stock factor may be a better explanatory variable.</b></p><p>In the year since the Fed started its rate hike, stock market factors showed good performance with low enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA), high valuations, and low net worth per share, with low enterprise value multiples and high enterprise value/free cash flow leading each cycle, and low net worth per share stocks outperforming the broader market 80% of the time. The sectors with lower prices, as measured by these metrics, are energy materials and healthcare.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082cc07dc1c56833e8d373417f1682\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Small Caps Outperform Large Caps</p><p>Bank of America believes that the company's outstanding equity can also be a good measure of the company's performance in the rate hike.</p><p><b>Small-cap stocks typically fared better in the months leading up to the start of the rate hike, and slightly weaker after the start of the rate hike.</b>But unlike other rate hike cycles, small-cap stocks are cheaper than large-cap stocks right now.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1deb9d33895b10c21ecd6863c8e597\" tg-width=\"1668\" tg-height=\"1202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The P/E of small-cap stocks typically rose 5-6% in the first three months of the rate hike and fell 8% during the rally. But the Russell 2000's P/E has fallen 12% since November, the lowest relative to P/E since 2000.</p><p>At the same time, the correlation between the performance of small-cap stocks and the 10-year change (positive correlation) is much greater than the correlation between the performance of large-cap stocks and the change in the Federal Funds rate (almost no correlation).</p><p>The Bank of America report also noted that faster tightening would not be more detrimental to small businesses, and that there is no correlation between rate hike speed and relative size performance.</p><p><b>Furthermore, during balance sheet tapering, history suggests stocks> bonds, value stocks> growth stocks, and large cap stocks = small cap stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deea07177357b743f796a2d50d1956c\" tg-width=\"1636\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learn from history! How will U.S. stocks perform in the tightening cycle?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearn from history! How will U.S. stocks perform in the tightening cycle?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-21 10:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, the expectation of radical rate hike has surged, and Wall Street analysts are thinking about a question: How will US stocks react in this tightening cycle?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>In the latest report, it is pointed out that the vast majority of optimists believe that the S&P 500 has been returning positively in the past seven rate hike cycles.<b>But this has almost exclusively occurred in phases where economic growth has accelerated, with returns flattening or falling since 1950 when the economic recovery has slowed.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1e1ffad540c4f6e7aa2033aae33859\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the upcoming tightening cycle, there is an even greater risk,<b>The current valuation of the US stock market is on the high side.</b></p><p>In fact, the S&P 500 before this first rate hike is more expensive than any other rate hike cycle except for the 1999-2000 period.</p><p>Worse, the actual cost of interest on this debt was negative, whereas in 1999 the cost of equity was negative. During the cycle, Federal Funds rate rose 150 basis points and the market moved higher on the rise, but the S&P peaked in March 2000 and then fell 49% over the next two and a half years.</p><p>Considering these two main risk factors, even if the upcoming tightening cycle may be short-lived (Federal Funds rate futures already reflect at least two rate cuts before 2024), Bank of America is in the bear camp this time around.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc5ab5839fdac8ef84d42f03c1885828\" tg-width=\"1648\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond alternatives performed worst, cyclical stocks performed best</b></p><p>Bank of America believes that from the perspective of industry sectors, bond substitution stocks performed the worst, and cyclical sectors performed the best.</p><p>In historical tightening cycles, bond replacement stocks such as utilities and real estate, as well as industrial stocks, have performed worse than the S&P 500.</p><p>The consumer discretionary sector has performed better than the S&P 500 index and outperformed other sectors, but it is currently facing risks brought by high labor intensity and wage pressure.</p><p><b>Other sectors that have historically performed well include technology, energy, materials, and consumer goods.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2396603b1b718b964d5584d7b23d32\" tg-width=\"1508\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>But in the rate hike cycle, the industry alpha is more dispersed, and the stock factor may be a better explanatory variable.</b></p><p>In the year since the Fed started its rate hike, stock market factors showed good performance with low enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA), high valuations, and low net worth per share, with low enterprise value multiples and high enterprise value/free cash flow leading each cycle, and low net worth per share stocks outperforming the broader market 80% of the time. The sectors with lower prices, as measured by these metrics, are energy materials and healthcare.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082cc07dc1c56833e8d373417f1682\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Small Caps Outperform Large Caps</p><p>Bank of America believes that the company's outstanding equity can also be a good measure of the company's performance in the rate hike.</p><p><b>Small-cap stocks typically fared better in the months leading up to the start of the rate hike, and slightly weaker after the start of the rate hike.</b>But unlike other rate hike cycles, small-cap stocks are cheaper than large-cap stocks right now.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1deb9d33895b10c21ecd6863c8e597\" tg-width=\"1668\" tg-height=\"1202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The P/E of small-cap stocks typically rose 5-6% in the first three months of the rate hike and fell 8% during the rally. But the Russell 2000's P/E has fallen 12% since November, the lowest relative to P/E since 2000.</p><p>At the same time, the correlation between the performance of small-cap stocks and the 10-year change (positive correlation) is much greater than the correlation between the performance of large-cap stocks and the change in the Federal Funds rate (almost no correlation).</p><p>The Bank of America report also noted that faster tightening would not be more detrimental to small businesses, and that there is no correlation between rate hike speed and relative size performance.</p><p><b>Furthermore, during balance sheet tapering, history suggests stocks> bonds, value stocks> growth stocks, and large cap stocks = small cap stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deea07177357b743f796a2d50d1956c\" tg-width=\"1636\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BAC":"美国银行","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2212677275","content_text":"近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经济增长加速的阶段，自1950年以来，当经济复苏放缓时，回报率持平或下降。在即将到来的紧缩周期中，还有一个更大的风险，当前美股市场估值偏高。事实上，本轮首次加息前的标普500指数比除了1999-2000年期间之外的任何其它加息周期都要昂贵。更糟的是，这次债务的实际利息成本是负的，而在1999年，权益成本是负的。在这一周期中，联邦基金利率上升了150个基点，市场在上升过程中走高，但标普指数在2000年3月见顶，随后在接下来的两年半中下跌了49%。考虑到这两个主要风险因素，即使将到来的紧缩周期可能是短暂的（联邦基金利率期货已经反映出在2024年之前至少两次降息），美银这次也站队熊市阵营。债券替代股表现最差，周期股表现最好美银认为，从行业板块来看，债券替代股表现最差，周期性板块表现最好。在历史紧缩周期中，公用事业、房地产等债券替代股以及工业股表现比标普500要差。非必需消费品板块的表现比标普500指数要好，且超过其他板块，但目前该板块面临高劳动强度和工资压力带来的风险。历史上其他表现良好的行业包括科技、能源、材料和日常消费品。但在加息周期中，行业alpha的离散程度较大，而股票因子可能是一个更好的解释变量。在美联储开启加息的一年内，股市因子表现为企业价值倍数低（EV/EBITDA）、估值高和每股净值低的表现良好，低企业价值倍数和高企业价值/自由现金流在每个周期中领先，每股净值低的股票在80%的情况下优于大盘。按这些指标衡量，目前价格较低的行业是能源材料和医疗保健。小盘股表现优于大盘股美银认为，公司流通股本也能很好等衡量公司在加息中的表现。加息开始前几个月小盘股通常表现要好，加息开始后小盘股表现稍弱。但与其他加息周期不同，目前小盘股比大型股价格要便宜。小盘股的市盈率通常在加息前三个月上升5-6%，在上涨期间下降8%。但罗素2000指数的市盈率自去年11月以来已经下跌了12%，相对市盈率是2000年以来的最低水平。同时，小盘股比大盘股表现与10年期变化的相关性(正相关)要比与联邦基金利率变化的相关性(几乎没有相关性)大得多。美银报告还指出，更快的紧缩不会对小企业更不利，加息速度与相对规模表现之间没有相关性。此外，在资产负债表缩减期间，历史表明股票>债券，价值股>成长股，大盘股=小盘股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BAC":0.73,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.85,"SPY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097158476,"gmtCreate":1645399880633,"gmtModify":1676534023368,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097158476","repostId":"1150820641","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097307460,"gmtCreate":1645326738946,"gmtModify":1676534019091,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097307460","repostId":"1198166588","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198166588","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645314743,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198166588?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-20 07:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Hong Kong stocks, worthy of our gentle treatment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198166588","media":"兴证资管","summary":"经验显示，估值掉至历史低位（PB在1附近或以下）后，港股接下来都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。在港股估值已经跌至历史低位的情况下，继续看空港股，对投资实际上已经没有太多意义。近日，兴证资管","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Experience shows that after the valuation falls to a historical low (PB is around 1 or below), Hong Kong stocks will rebound next, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound are different. When the valuation of Hong Kong stocks has fallen to a historical low, it actually doesn't make much sense for investment to continue to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks. Recently, Wang Delun's team of Xingzheng Asset Management issued a document pointing out that as a rare \"depression\" in the world at present, Hong Kong stocks in 2022 are worth investors to spend more time researching and tapping investment opportunities. Wang Delun said that the current common logic of bearish Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. On the contrary, historical experience shows that the PB of Hong Kong stocks is around 1 or below, and then it will rebound, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound are different.</p><p><b>The original text is as follows:</b></p><p>If you want to choose the \"worst\" stock market in the world in 2021, Hong Kong stocks may have a \"place\". Throughout 2021, the Hang Seng Index plummeted 15%, underperforming A-shares and far worse than major stock indexes such as U.S. stocks and Europe. Looking further at the performance of the main sectors in Hong Kong stocks, the decline of some sectors can also be described as \"one ride\". For example, the technology sector of Hong Kong stocks fell by as much as 33%, the information technology and healthcare sectors fell by 32% and 28% respectively, and other sectors such as real estate construction and mandatory consumption also fell by more than 10%. The nearly one-year decline has made the Hong Kong stock market full of pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e16de25a7662ff656796effd5cba8f6\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"894\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After nearly a year of drastic adjustment, standing at the current point, how should we treat Hong Kong stocks?<b>Judging from the micro-research of some institutions, pessimism still dominates.</b>A brief summary of the \"reasons\" for continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks includes arguments such as \"the Federal Reserve's rate hike will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", \"the 10Y US Treasury yields will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", \"the depreciation of RMB exchange rate will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", and some views suggest that \"Hong Kong stocks will be dragged into the 'deep sea' because of the collapse of US stocks\". Are these \"reasons\" for bearish Hong Kong stocks really established? In this regard, we don't actually have to deeply engage in the logical chain inside, but only need to simply go back to the historical data to get a glimpse.</p><p>\"The Federal Reserve's rate hike will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", this argument, from the historical data, is not valid. And we see,<b>During the rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve from 2004 to 2006, Hong Kong stocks rose all the way. Similarly, from 2016 to 2017, in the four rate hike before and after the Federal Reserve, Hong Kong stocks also rose all the way. Summing up experience, the Fed's rate hike seems to be the logic of bullish rather than bearish Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33521bdfab4f65c554ac337546e54bf\" tg-width=\"1408\" tg-height=\"854\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"10Y US Treasury yields upward will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", this logic is not supported by historical data.</b>A simple comparison of the trends of US Treasury yields and Hong Kong stocks in 10Y shows that the latter has repeatedly risen all the way during the sharp upward trend of the former.<b>Typically, 2007, the second half of 2009, the second half of 2012 to 2013, the second quarter of 2015, the fourth quarter of 2016, and the first quarter of 2020 to 2021.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfd6e0f890cf712b65edfd5282732be\" tg-width=\"1398\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"The depreciation of RMB exchange rate will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", this argument is still not valid.</b>We may be used to judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks from the perspective of exchange rate. But in reality, the relationship between them is very unstable. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2015, while the RMB exchange rate continued to weaken, Hong Kong stocks rose sharply. Similarly, from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, the RMB exchange rate weakened and Hong Kong stocks rose, continuing to \"coexist\". Instead, we can see that,<b>Since the second half of 2020, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated all the way, while Hong Kong stocks have \"risen first and then fallen\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fac960f3949470544e6418cc733fd9\" tg-width=\"1452\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the upward trend of the 10Y US Treasury yields, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate can't be the core logical support to judge the trend of Hong Kong stocks, especially the weakening of Hong Kong stocks. Like them,<b>US stocks can't be simply used to judge the trend of Hong Kong stocks.</b>A brief review of the performance of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks in the past 10 years shows that they frequently differentiate and deviate.<b>When U.S. stocks rise, Hong Kong stocks don't necessarily rise; When U.S. stocks fall, Hong Kong stocks often don't \"follow\".</b>Of course, if it is determined that the U.S. stock market is going to collapse, Hong Kong stocks will generally be uncomfortable. But the premise is, will U.S. stocks crash? In the past 10 years, bearish US stocks and bearish domestic housing prices have always been the two easiest and most frequent views to be \"slapped in the face\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a931c95ea1e4226c697f2f7e0e869f\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>By simply reviewing the historical data, we can intuitively find that the current common logic of bearish Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. We follow the method of historical induction and summary, without discussing concrete logic,<b>Simply review the trend of Hong Kong stocks from the perspective of Hong Kong stock valuation. Experience shows that after the valuation falls to a historical low (PB is around 1 or below), Hong Kong stocks will rebound next, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound are different.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706504053c2b9738cc7ba401565068b3\" tg-width=\"1428\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Historical experience tells us that when the valuation of Hong Kong stocks has fallen to a historical low, it actually doesn't make much sense to continue to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks.</b>As a rare \"depression\" in the world at present, Hong Kong stocks are worth spending more time researching and tapping investment opportunities in 2022. Since the beginning of 2022, with the continuous adjustment of major global stock indexes, Hong Kong stocks have risen \"against the trend\", which is worthy of our attention and serious treatment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f867862f845af52bc191d2a119d08a\" tg-width=\"1388\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning: Investment is risky, so decision-making should be cautious. The views expressed in this article only represent the current judgment of the macro market, which may be adjusted with the changes of the market environment, and do not constitute any relevant investment suggestions and forecasts of any information screen audience.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645314773710","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stocks, worthy of our gentle treatment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stocks, worthy of our gentle treatment?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">兴证资管</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-20 07:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Experience shows that after the valuation falls to a historical low (PB is around 1 or below), Hong Kong stocks will rebound next, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound are different. When the valuation of Hong Kong stocks has fallen to a historical low, it actually doesn't make much sense for investment to continue to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks. Recently, Wang Delun's team of Xingzheng Asset Management issued a document pointing out that as a rare \"depression\" in the world at present, Hong Kong stocks in 2022 are worth investors to spend more time researching and tapping investment opportunities. Wang Delun said that the current common logic of bearish Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. On the contrary, historical experience shows that the PB of Hong Kong stocks is around 1 or below, and then it will rebound, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound are different.</p><p><b>The original text is as follows:</b></p><p>If you want to choose the \"worst\" stock market in the world in 2021, Hong Kong stocks may have a \"place\". Throughout 2021, the Hang Seng Index plummeted 15%, underperforming A-shares and far worse than major stock indexes such as U.S. stocks and Europe. Looking further at the performance of the main sectors in Hong Kong stocks, the decline of some sectors can also be described as \"one ride\". For example, the technology sector of Hong Kong stocks fell by as much as 33%, the information technology and healthcare sectors fell by 32% and 28% respectively, and other sectors such as real estate construction and mandatory consumption also fell by more than 10%. The nearly one-year decline has made the Hong Kong stock market full of pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e16de25a7662ff656796effd5cba8f6\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"894\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After nearly a year of drastic adjustment, standing at the current point, how should we treat Hong Kong stocks?<b>Judging from the micro-research of some institutions, pessimism still dominates.</b>A brief summary of the \"reasons\" for continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks includes arguments such as \"the Federal Reserve's rate hike will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", \"the 10Y US Treasury yields will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", \"the depreciation of RMB exchange rate will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", and some views suggest that \"Hong Kong stocks will be dragged into the 'deep sea' because of the collapse of US stocks\". Are these \"reasons\" for bearish Hong Kong stocks really established? In this regard, we don't actually have to deeply engage in the logical chain inside, but only need to simply go back to the historical data to get a glimpse.</p><p>\"The Federal Reserve's rate hike will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", this argument, from the historical data, is not valid. And we see,<b>During the rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve from 2004 to 2006, Hong Kong stocks rose all the way. Similarly, from 2016 to 2017, in the four rate hike before and after the Federal Reserve, Hong Kong stocks also rose all the way. Summing up experience, the Fed's rate hike seems to be the logic of bullish rather than bearish Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33521bdfab4f65c554ac337546e54bf\" tg-width=\"1408\" tg-height=\"854\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"10Y US Treasury yields upward will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", this logic is not supported by historical data.</b>A simple comparison of the trends of US Treasury yields and Hong Kong stocks in 10Y shows that the latter has repeatedly risen all the way during the sharp upward trend of the former.<b>Typically, 2007, the second half of 2009, the second half of 2012 to 2013, the second quarter of 2015, the fourth quarter of 2016, and the first quarter of 2020 to 2021.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfd6e0f890cf712b65edfd5282732be\" tg-width=\"1398\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"The depreciation of RMB exchange rate will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", this argument is still not valid.</b>We may be used to judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks from the perspective of exchange rate. But in reality, the relationship between them is very unstable. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2015, while the RMB exchange rate continued to weaken, Hong Kong stocks rose sharply. Similarly, from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, the RMB exchange rate weakened and Hong Kong stocks rose, continuing to \"coexist\". Instead, we can see that,<b>Since the second half of 2020, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated all the way, while Hong Kong stocks have \"risen first and then fallen\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fac960f3949470544e6418cc733fd9\" tg-width=\"1452\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the upward trend of the 10Y US Treasury yields, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate can't be the core logical support to judge the trend of Hong Kong stocks, especially the weakening of Hong Kong stocks. Like them,<b>US stocks can't be simply used to judge the trend of Hong Kong stocks.</b>A brief review of the performance of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks in the past 10 years shows that they frequently differentiate and deviate.<b>When U.S. stocks rise, Hong Kong stocks don't necessarily rise; When U.S. stocks fall, Hong Kong stocks often don't \"follow\".</b>Of course, if it is determined that the U.S. stock market is going to collapse, Hong Kong stocks will generally be uncomfortable. But the premise is, will U.S. stocks crash? In the past 10 years, bearish US stocks and bearish domestic housing prices have always been the two easiest and most frequent views to be \"slapped in the face\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a931c95ea1e4226c697f2f7e0e869f\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>By simply reviewing the historical data, we can intuitively find that the current common logic of bearish Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. We follow the method of historical induction and summary, without discussing concrete logic,<b>Simply review the trend of Hong Kong stocks from the perspective of Hong Kong stock valuation. Experience shows that after the valuation falls to a historical low (PB is around 1 or below), Hong Kong stocks will rebound next, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound are different.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706504053c2b9738cc7ba401565068b3\" tg-width=\"1428\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Historical experience tells us that when the valuation of Hong Kong stocks has fallen to a historical low, it actually doesn't make much sense to continue to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks.</b>As a rare \"depression\" in the world at present, Hong Kong stocks are worth spending more time researching and tapping investment opportunities in 2022. Since the beginning of 2022, with the continuous adjustment of major global stock indexes, Hong Kong stocks have risen \"against the trend\", which is worthy of our attention and serious treatment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f867862f845af52bc191d2a119d08a\" tg-width=\"1388\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning: Investment is risky, so decision-making should be cautious. The views expressed in this article only represent the current judgment of the macro market, which may be adjusted with the changes of the market environment, and do not constitute any relevant investment suggestions and forecasts of any information screen audience.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652344\">兴证资管</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652344","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198166588","content_text":"经验显示，估值掉至历史低位（PB在1附近或以下）后，港股接下来都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。在港股估值已经跌至历史低位的情况下，继续看空港股，对投资实际上已经没有太多意义。近日，兴证资管王德伦团队发文指出，作为目前全球少有的“洼地”，港股2022年，值得投资者花更多时间研究、挖掘投资机会。王德伦表示，当前常见的看空港股逻辑，都没有历史数据的支持。反而是，历史经验显示，港股PB在1附近或以下，随后都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。原文如下：如果要评选2021年全球“最惨”的股票市场，港股可能有“一席之地”。2021年全年，恒生指数大跌15%，表现不及A股，并远差于美股及欧洲等主要股指。进一步看港股中主要板块的表现，部分板块的跌幅也可谓“一骑绝尘”。比如，港股科技板块跌幅高达33%，信息技术、医疗保健板块跌幅分别达到32%、28%，其他的如地产建筑、必选消费等板块跌幅也超过10%。近1年的跌跌不休，使港股市场充斥着悲观情绪。经历了近1年的剧烈调整后，站在当前时点，我们应该怎么看待港股？从部分机构的微观调研情况来看，悲观情绪依然占据主导。简单汇总继续看空港股的“理由”，既有“美联储加息会打压港股”、“10Y美债利率上行会打压港股”、“人民币汇率趋于贬值会打压港股”等论调，也有观点提出“港股会因为美股崩盘而被拖下‘深海’”。这些看空港股的“理由”，是否真的成立？对此，我们实际上不必深纠里面的逻辑链条，只需要简单回溯历史数据，便能一窥究竟。“美联储加息会打压港股”，这一论调，从历史数据来看，并不成立。我们看到，2004年至2006年的美联储加息周期中，港股一路大涨。同样的，2016年至2017年，美联储前后4次加息中，港股也一路上涨。总结经验来看，美联储加息，似乎可以成为看多、而非看空港股的逻辑。“10Y美债利率上行会打压港股”，这一逻辑，也没有历史数据的支持。简单比较10Y美债利率和港股的走势，可以发现，后者多次在前者大幅上行期间，一路大涨。典型的有，2007年、2009年下半年、2012年下半年至2013年、2015年2季度、2016年4季度，以及2020年至2021年1季度。“人民币汇率趋于贬值会打压港股”，这一论调，依然不成立。我们可能习惯于从汇率角度，去判断港股走势。但实际上，它们之间的关系，非常不稳定。比如，2013年4季度至2015年2季度，人民币汇率持续走弱的同时，港股出现大幅上涨。同样的，2016年2季度至2017年2季度，人民币汇率走弱和港股上涨，持续“共存”。相反，我们也可以看到，2020年下半年至今，人民币汇率一路升值，而港股“先涨后跌”。美联储加息、10Y美债利率上行、人民币汇率贬值，都无法成为判断港股走势、尤其是判定港股将走弱的核心逻辑支撑。与它们一样，美股，也不能简单用于判断港股的走势。简单回顾过去10年港股和美股的表现，能非常容易地发现，它们频繁分化、背离。美股涨的时候，港股不一定涨；美股跌的时候，港股很多时候也不会“跟”。当然，如果认定美股要崩盘，那港股一般会比较难受。但前提是，美股会崩盘吗？过去10年，看空美股和看空国内房价，一直是最容易、最高频被“打脸”的两个观点。简单回顾历史数据，就能直观地发现，当前常见的看空港股的逻辑，都没有历史数据的支持。我们沿用历史归纳总结的方法，不讨论具体逻辑，简单从港股估值角度出发，回顾港股走势。经验显示，估值掉至历史低位（PB在1附近或以下）后，港股接下来都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。历史经验告诉了我们，在港股估值已经跌至历史低位的情况下，继续看空港股，对投资实际上已经没有太多意义。作为目前全球少有的“洼地”，港股2022年，值得我们花更多时间研究、挖掘投资机会。2022年初至今，全球主要股指持续调整之际，港股“逆势”上涨，已经足够值得我们重视和认真对待。风险提示：投资有风险，决策需谨慎。本文所表达观点仅代表对宏观市场的当期判断，可能随市场环境变化而产生调整，不构成任何信息屏受众群体的任何相关投资建议与预测。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094423621,"gmtCreate":1645225659573,"gmtModify":1676534009660,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094423621","repostId":"1139808170","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139808170","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645198328,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139808170?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-18 23:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ford's short-term rise is rumored to be considering spinning off its electric or gas engine division","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139808170","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周五，福特汽车短线拉升，截至发稿涨超4%。市场消息称，福特汽车CEO考虑通过多种方式让电动汽车业务单独运作，包括分拆电动车或燃气发动机业务部门。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Short-term rise, up more than 4% as of press time. According to market sources, Ford's CEO is considering a variety of ways to let the EV business operate alone, including spinning off the EV or gas engine business unit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bd55986c14981565e24801f5b23094e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford's short-term rise is rumored to be considering spinning off its electric or gas engine division</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord's short-term rise is rumored to be considering spinning off its electric or gas engine division\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-18 23:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Short-term rise, up more than 4% as of press time. According to market sources, Ford's CEO is considering a variety of ways to let the EV business operate alone, including spinning off the EV or gas engine business unit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bd55986c14981565e24801f5b23094e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f27c1c8aa54c63bbf415c36a2121f812","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139808170","content_text":"周五，福特汽车短线拉升，截至发稿涨超4%。市场消息称，福特汽车CEO考虑通过多种方式让电动汽车业务单独运作，包括分拆电动车或燃气发动机业务部门。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094423995,"gmtCreate":1645225537843,"gmtModify":1676534009652,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094423995","repostId":"1129539472","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129539472","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645200464,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129539472?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-19 00:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Roblox fell more than 10% intraday, and its target price was lowered by many major banks after the earnings report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129539472","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2021年，Roblox全年营收为19.2亿美元，按年增长108%，净亏损高达4.9亿美元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, Roblox, the \"first stock in the metaverse\", fell by more than 10% in the intraday session, and its target price was lowered by many major banks after the company's results were released.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8da85cc8b7c3c4f15bb86458d0246383\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The company's fourth-quarter earnings report showed that the company's revenue for the period was $568 million, an increase of 83% year-on-year, but its net loss further widened to $143 million, much higher than $58.7 million in the same period in 2020. Looking at the full-year data, in 2021, Roblox's full-year revenue was $1.92 billion, up 108% year-on-year, and its net loss was as high as $490 million.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roblox fell more than 10% intraday, and its target price was lowered by many major banks after the earnings report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoblox fell more than 10% intraday, and its target price was lowered by many major banks after the earnings report\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-19 00:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, Roblox, the \"first stock in the metaverse\", fell by more than 10% in the intraday session, and its target price was lowered by many major banks after the company's results were released.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8da85cc8b7c3c4f15bb86458d0246383\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The company's fourth-quarter earnings report showed that the company's revenue for the period was $568 million, an increase of 83% year-on-year, but its net loss further widened to $143 million, much higher than $58.7 million in the same period in 2020. Looking at the full-year data, in 2021, Roblox's full-year revenue was $1.92 billion, up 108% year-on-year, and its net loss was as high as $490 million.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae0dbbdc0d8bd289953c63fd3e803da5","relate_stocks":{"RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129539472","content_text":"周五，“元宇宙第一股”Roblox盘中跌超10%，公司业绩发布后遭多家大行下调目标价。四季度财报显示，该公司期内收入为5.68亿美元，按年增长83%，但净亏损进一步扩大至1.43亿美元，远高于2020年同期的5870万美元。从全年数据来看，2021年，Roblox全年营收为19.2亿美元，按年增长108%，净亏损高达4.9亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RBLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094429519,"gmtCreate":1645225481865,"gmtModify":1676534009645,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094429519","repostId":"1157712278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157712278","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645065627,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157712278?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-17 10:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed for one day on February 21st due to Washington's birthday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157712278","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月21日（周一）是美国的华盛顿诞辰纪念日，美国包括股市和债市在内的金融市场将休市一天。2月22日（周二）美股恢复正常交易。港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡照常开市。背景简介：华盛顿诞辰纪念日俗称总统日","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>February 21st (Monday) is the anniversary of Washington's birth in the United States, and the financial markets in the United States, including the stock market and bond market, will be closed for one day. On February 22nd (Tuesday), US stocks resumed normal trading.</p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A shares, British stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore opened as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>Washington's birth anniversary is commonly known as President's Day</p><p>A bill passed by the United States Congress in 1879 first decided to make Washington's birthday a federal holiday. The Monday Holiday Act, which came into effect in 1968, moved the anniversary of Washington's birth from February 22 to the third Monday in February. But, including this bill, there has been no law in the United States so far that officially changes the name \"Washington Birth Anniversary\" to what is now better known as \"President's Day.\" The civilian situation is different, with more and more Americans calling the third Monday in February \"President's Day\".</p><p>George-Washington Profile:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cb9e79983f7b49037bed99be2c34a2\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One of the most common portraits of George Washington</p><p>Washington, whose full name was George Washington (22 February 1732 – 14 December 1799), served as commander-in-chief of the Continental Army during the American Revolution from 1775 to 1783, became the first president of the United States in 1789 (and the first head of state in the world to bear the title of \"president\"), and won the unanimous support of the Electoral College in two successive presidential elections, and remained president of the United States until 1797.</p><p>In 1787 he presided over the United States Constitutional Convention, which laid out the basic framework of the present United States Constitution. He established many of the policies and traditions of the United States that continue to this day during his two terms. At the end of his two terms, he voluntarily relinquished his power for no renewal, establishing the American tradition of serving no more than two terms.</p><p>Washington then returned to civilian life and lived in seclusion at the Mount Vernon estate. Since he played the most important role in the American Revolution and the founding of the nation, Washington is often referred to as the Founding Father of the United States. Most American scholars generally rank him as one of the greatest presidents in American history alongside Abraham Lincoln.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed for one day on February 21st due to Washington's birthday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. stocks are closed for one day on February 21st due to Washington's birthday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-17 10:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>February 21st (Monday) is the anniversary of Washington's birth in the United States, and the financial markets in the United States, including the stock market and bond market, will be closed for one day. On February 22nd (Tuesday), US stocks resumed normal trading.</p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A shares, British stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore opened as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>Washington's birth anniversary is commonly known as President's Day</p><p>A bill passed by the United States Congress in 1879 first decided to make Washington's birthday a federal holiday. The Monday Holiday Act, which came into effect in 1968, moved the anniversary of Washington's birth from February 22 to the third Monday in February. But, including this bill, there has been no law in the United States so far that officially changes the name \"Washington Birth Anniversary\" to what is now better known as \"President's Day.\" The civilian situation is different, with more and more Americans calling the third Monday in February \"President's Day\".</p><p>George-Washington Profile:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cb9e79983f7b49037bed99be2c34a2\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One of the most common portraits of George Washington</p><p>Washington, whose full name was George Washington (22 February 1732 – 14 December 1799), served as commander-in-chief of the Continental Army during the American Revolution from 1775 to 1783, became the first president of the United States in 1789 (and the first head of state in the world to bear the title of \"president\"), and won the unanimous support of the Electoral College in two successive presidential elections, and remained president of the United States until 1797.</p><p>In 1787 he presided over the United States Constitutional Convention, which laid out the basic framework of the present United States Constitution. He established many of the policies and traditions of the United States that continue to this day during his two terms. At the end of his two terms, he voluntarily relinquished his power for no renewal, establishing the American tradition of serving no more than two terms.</p><p>Washington then returned to civilian life and lived in seclusion at the Mount Vernon estate. Since he played the most important role in the American Revolution and the founding of the nation, Washington is often referred to as the Founding Father of the United States. Most American scholars generally rank him as one of the greatest presidents in American history alongside Abraham Lincoln.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cb9e79983f7b49037bed99be2c34a2","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157712278","content_text":"2月21日（周一）是美国的华盛顿诞辰纪念日，美国包括股市和债市在内的金融市场将休市一天。2月22日（周二）美股恢复正常交易。港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡照常开市。背景简介：华盛顿诞辰纪念日俗称总统日1879年美国国会通过的一项法案首次决定将华盛顿诞辰列为联邦节日。1968年生效的《周一节假日法》则将华盛顿诞辰纪念日从每年的2月22日移到2月的第3个周一。但是，包括这一法案在内，美国迄今没有任何法律规定将“华盛顿诞辰纪念日”这一名称正式改为现在更为人所知的“总统日”。民间情况则有所不同，越来越多的美国人已将2月的第3个周一称为“总统日”。乔治-华盛顿简介：乔治-华盛顿最为常见的画像之一华盛顿全名乔治-华盛顿（英文George Washington，1732年2月22日-1799年12月14日），1775至1783年美国独立战争时他任大陆军总司令，1789年成为美国第一任总统（同时也成为全世界首位以“总统”为称号的国家元首），在接连两次总统选举中他都获得了全体选举团无异议的一致支持，一直担任美国总统直至1797年。1787年他主持美国制宪会议，制定了现在美国宪法的基本框架。他在两届任期中设立了美国许多延续至今的政策和传统。两届任期结束后，他自愿放弃权力不再续任，确立了美国总统任期不超过两届的传统。此后华盛顿回复平民生活，隐居在弗农山庄园。由于他在美国独立战争和建国过程中扮演了最重要角色，华盛顿通常被称为美国国父。美国多数学者一般将他和亚伯拉罕-林肯等并列为美国历史上最伟大的总统之一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094600790,"gmtCreate":1645133409313,"gmtModify":1676533999884,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094600790","repostId":"2212694282","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094600287,"gmtCreate":1645133343196,"gmtModify":1676533999907,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Ok","listText":"&nbsp;Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094600287","repostId":"1136461482","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9033479247,"gmtCreate":1646352505472,"gmtModify":1676534120336,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033479247","repostId":"1106625673","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039870444,"gmtCreate":1646009466093,"gmtModify":1676534081559,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039870444","repostId":"2214132600","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039537936,"gmtCreate":1646084691418,"gmtModify":1676534087859,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039537936","repostId":"1122487527","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122487527","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1646062922,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122487527?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-28 23:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Change | Nasdaq turned up! New Energy Vehicle Stocks Fire, Ideal Rise Over 10%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122487527","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月28日，纳指转涨，此前跌近1%。截至目前，道指下跌0.95%，标普500指数下跌0.66%。美股新能源车概念股持续走高，理想汽车涨超10%，蔚来汽车涨超7%，特斯拉涨超6%，小鹏汽车涨超3%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On February 28th, the Nasdaq turned up, after falling nearly 1%. So far, the Dow is down 0.95% and the S&P 500 is down 0.66%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544bbfdf47cab414ffe02f1ec3d5c59b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>New energy vehicle concept stocks in U.S. stocks continue to rise,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>rose by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It rose by more than 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff49a91e2bf49c78e28804aef792155\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Change | Nasdaq turned up! New Energy Vehicle Stocks Fire, Ideal Rise Over 10%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChange | Nasdaq turned up! New Energy Vehicle Stocks Fire, Ideal Rise Over 10%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-28 23:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On February 28th, the Nasdaq turned up, after falling nearly 1%. So far, the Dow is down 0.95% and the S&P 500 is down 0.66%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544bbfdf47cab414ffe02f1ec3d5c59b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>New energy vehicle concept stocks in U.S. stocks continue to rise,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>rose by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It rose by more than 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff49a91e2bf49c78e28804aef792155\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"161028":"新能源车","399417":"新能源车","BK1587":"次新股","LI":"理想汽车","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","03086":"华夏纳指","BK1588":"回港中概股","02015":"理想汽车-W","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK1575":"同股不同权","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122487527","content_text":"2月28日，纳指转涨，此前跌近1%。截至目前，道指下跌0.95%，标普500指数下跌0.66%。美股新能源车概念股持续走高，理想汽车涨超10%，蔚来汽车涨超7%，特斯拉涨超6%，小鹏汽车涨超3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161028":0.9,"399417":0.9,"LI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"03086":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"02015":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097616062,"gmtCreate":1645439670099,"gmtModify":1676534027744,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097616062","repostId":"2212677275","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2212677275","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645411504,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2212677275?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-21 10:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Learn from history! How will U.S. stocks perform in the tightening cycle?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2212677275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, the expectation of radical rate hike has surged, and Wall Street analysts are thinking about a question: How will US stocks react in this tightening cycle?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>In the latest report, it is pointed out that the vast majority of optimists believe that the S&P 500 has been returning positively in the past seven rate hike cycles.<b>But this has almost exclusively occurred in phases where economic growth has accelerated, with returns flattening or falling since 1950 when the economic recovery has slowed.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1e1ffad540c4f6e7aa2033aae33859\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the upcoming tightening cycle, there is an even greater risk,<b>The current valuation of the US stock market is on the high side.</b></p><p>In fact, the S&P 500 before this first rate hike is more expensive than any other rate hike cycle except for the 1999-2000 period.</p><p>Worse, the actual cost of interest on this debt was negative, whereas in 1999 the cost of equity was negative. During the cycle, Federal Funds rate rose 150 basis points and the market moved higher on the rise, but the S&P peaked in March 2000 and then fell 49% over the next two and a half years.</p><p>Considering these two main risk factors, even if the upcoming tightening cycle may be short-lived (Federal Funds rate futures already reflect at least two rate cuts before 2024), Bank of America is in the bear camp this time around.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc5ab5839fdac8ef84d42f03c1885828\" tg-width=\"1648\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond alternatives performed worst, cyclical stocks performed best</b></p><p>Bank of America believes that from the perspective of industry sectors, bond substitution stocks performed the worst, and cyclical sectors performed the best.</p><p>In historical tightening cycles, bond replacement stocks such as utilities and real estate, as well as industrial stocks, have performed worse than the S&P 500.</p><p>The consumer discretionary sector has performed better than the S&P 500 index and outperformed other sectors, but it is currently facing risks brought by high labor intensity and wage pressure.</p><p><b>Other sectors that have historically performed well include technology, energy, materials, and consumer goods.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2396603b1b718b964d5584d7b23d32\" tg-width=\"1508\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>But in the rate hike cycle, the industry alpha is more dispersed, and the stock factor may be a better explanatory variable.</b></p><p>In the year since the Fed started its rate hike, stock market factors showed good performance with low enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA), high valuations, and low net worth per share, with low enterprise value multiples and high enterprise value/free cash flow leading each cycle, and low net worth per share stocks outperforming the broader market 80% of the time. The sectors with lower prices, as measured by these metrics, are energy materials and healthcare.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082cc07dc1c56833e8d373417f1682\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Small Caps Outperform Large Caps</p><p>Bank of America believes that the company's outstanding equity can also be a good measure of the company's performance in the rate hike.</p><p><b>Small-cap stocks typically fared better in the months leading up to the start of the rate hike, and slightly weaker after the start of the rate hike.</b>But unlike other rate hike cycles, small-cap stocks are cheaper than large-cap stocks right now.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1deb9d33895b10c21ecd6863c8e597\" tg-width=\"1668\" tg-height=\"1202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The P/E of small-cap stocks typically rose 5-6% in the first three months of the rate hike and fell 8% during the rally. But the Russell 2000's P/E has fallen 12% since November, the lowest relative to P/E since 2000.</p><p>At the same time, the correlation between the performance of small-cap stocks and the 10-year change (positive correlation) is much greater than the correlation between the performance of large-cap stocks and the change in the Federal Funds rate (almost no correlation).</p><p>The Bank of America report also noted that faster tightening would not be more detrimental to small businesses, and that there is no correlation between rate hike speed and relative size performance.</p><p><b>Furthermore, during balance sheet tapering, history suggests stocks> bonds, value stocks> growth stocks, and large cap stocks = small cap stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deea07177357b743f796a2d50d1956c\" tg-width=\"1636\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learn from history! How will U.S. stocks perform in the tightening cycle?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearn from history! How will U.S. stocks perform in the tightening cycle?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-21 10:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, the expectation of radical rate hike has surged, and Wall Street analysts are thinking about a question: How will US stocks react in this tightening cycle?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>In the latest report, it is pointed out that the vast majority of optimists believe that the S&P 500 has been returning positively in the past seven rate hike cycles.<b>But this has almost exclusively occurred in phases where economic growth has accelerated, with returns flattening or falling since 1950 when the economic recovery has slowed.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1e1ffad540c4f6e7aa2033aae33859\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the upcoming tightening cycle, there is an even greater risk,<b>The current valuation of the US stock market is on the high side.</b></p><p>In fact, the S&P 500 before this first rate hike is more expensive than any other rate hike cycle except for the 1999-2000 period.</p><p>Worse, the actual cost of interest on this debt was negative, whereas in 1999 the cost of equity was negative. During the cycle, Federal Funds rate rose 150 basis points and the market moved higher on the rise, but the S&P peaked in March 2000 and then fell 49% over the next two and a half years.</p><p>Considering these two main risk factors, even if the upcoming tightening cycle may be short-lived (Federal Funds rate futures already reflect at least two rate cuts before 2024), Bank of America is in the bear camp this time around.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc5ab5839fdac8ef84d42f03c1885828\" tg-width=\"1648\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond alternatives performed worst, cyclical stocks performed best</b></p><p>Bank of America believes that from the perspective of industry sectors, bond substitution stocks performed the worst, and cyclical sectors performed the best.</p><p>In historical tightening cycles, bond replacement stocks such as utilities and real estate, as well as industrial stocks, have performed worse than the S&P 500.</p><p>The consumer discretionary sector has performed better than the S&P 500 index and outperformed other sectors, but it is currently facing risks brought by high labor intensity and wage pressure.</p><p><b>Other sectors that have historically performed well include technology, energy, materials, and consumer goods.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2396603b1b718b964d5584d7b23d32\" tg-width=\"1508\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>But in the rate hike cycle, the industry alpha is more dispersed, and the stock factor may be a better explanatory variable.</b></p><p>In the year since the Fed started its rate hike, stock market factors showed good performance with low enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA), high valuations, and low net worth per share, with low enterprise value multiples and high enterprise value/free cash flow leading each cycle, and low net worth per share stocks outperforming the broader market 80% of the time. The sectors with lower prices, as measured by these metrics, are energy materials and healthcare.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082cc07dc1c56833e8d373417f1682\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Small Caps Outperform Large Caps</p><p>Bank of America believes that the company's outstanding equity can also be a good measure of the company's performance in the rate hike.</p><p><b>Small-cap stocks typically fared better in the months leading up to the start of the rate hike, and slightly weaker after the start of the rate hike.</b>But unlike other rate hike cycles, small-cap stocks are cheaper than large-cap stocks right now.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1deb9d33895b10c21ecd6863c8e597\" tg-width=\"1668\" tg-height=\"1202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The P/E of small-cap stocks typically rose 5-6% in the first three months of the rate hike and fell 8% during the rally. But the Russell 2000's P/E has fallen 12% since November, the lowest relative to P/E since 2000.</p><p>At the same time, the correlation between the performance of small-cap stocks and the 10-year change (positive correlation) is much greater than the correlation between the performance of large-cap stocks and the change in the Federal Funds rate (almost no correlation).</p><p>The Bank of America report also noted that faster tightening would not be more detrimental to small businesses, and that there is no correlation between rate hike speed and relative size performance.</p><p><b>Furthermore, during balance sheet tapering, history suggests stocks> bonds, value stocks> growth stocks, and large cap stocks = small cap stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deea07177357b743f796a2d50d1956c\" tg-width=\"1636\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BAC":"美国银行","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2212677275","content_text":"近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经济增长加速的阶段，自1950年以来，当经济复苏放缓时，回报率持平或下降。在即将到来的紧缩周期中，还有一个更大的风险，当前美股市场估值偏高。事实上，本轮首次加息前的标普500指数比除了1999-2000年期间之外的任何其它加息周期都要昂贵。更糟的是，这次债务的实际利息成本是负的，而在1999年，权益成本是负的。在这一周期中，联邦基金利率上升了150个基点，市场在上升过程中走高，但标普指数在2000年3月见顶，随后在接下来的两年半中下跌了49%。考虑到这两个主要风险因素，即使将到来的紧缩周期可能是短暂的（联邦基金利率期货已经反映出在2024年之前至少两次降息），美银这次也站队熊市阵营。债券替代股表现最差，周期股表现最好美银认为，从行业板块来看，债券替代股表现最差，周期性板块表现最好。在历史紧缩周期中，公用事业、房地产等债券替代股以及工业股表现比标普500要差。非必需消费品板块的表现比标普500指数要好，且超过其他板块，但目前该板块面临高劳动强度和工资压力带来的风险。历史上其他表现良好的行业包括科技、能源、材料和日常消费品。但在加息周期中，行业alpha的离散程度较大，而股票因子可能是一个更好的解释变量。在美联储开启加息的一年内，股市因子表现为企业价值倍数低（EV/EBITDA）、估值高和每股净值低的表现良好，低企业价值倍数和高企业价值/自由现金流在每个周期中领先，每股净值低的股票在80%的情况下优于大盘。按这些指标衡量，目前价格较低的行业是能源材料和医疗保健。小盘股表现优于大盘股美银认为，公司流通股本也能很好等衡量公司在加息中的表现。加息开始前几个月小盘股通常表现要好，加息开始后小盘股表现稍弱。但与其他加息周期不同，目前小盘股比大型股价格要便宜。小盘股的市盈率通常在加息前三个月上升5-6%，在上涨期间下降8%。但罗素2000指数的市盈率自去年11月以来已经下跌了12%，相对市盈率是2000年以来的最低水平。同时，小盘股比大盘股表现与10年期变化的相关性(正相关)要比与联邦基金利率变化的相关性(几乎没有相关性)大得多。美银报告还指出，更快的紧缩不会对小企业更不利，加息速度与相对规模表现之间没有相关性。此外，在资产负债表缩减期间，历史表明股票>债券，价值股>成长股，大盘股=小盘股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BAC":0.73,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.85,"SPY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030324389,"gmtCreate":1645652220963,"gmtModify":1676534048140,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp; Ok","listText":"&nbsp; Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030324389","repostId":"2213496312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2213496312","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645586061,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2213496312?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-23 11:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's about the global economy! 4 Impacts of the Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213496312","media":"熊园观察","summary":"摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increased the downward pressure on US stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Fed's rate hike. Event: On February 21st, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the People's Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. The global stock market plummeted, and crude oil and gold soared.</p><p>Core conclusions:</p><p>1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the possibility of evolving into war has greatly increased.</p><p>2. Taking history as a mirror, the performance law of major assets after geopolitical conflicts: in the short term, it will be negative for risk assets, and good for safe-haven assets and energy products. The impact is often concentrated in 10-30 days after the conflict breaks out, and the impact on the medium-and long-term trend of asset prices is weak.</p><p>3. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, there are four possible impacts:</p><p>To the global economy: Russia is likely to face a new round of sanctions; Given that Russia is a major exporter of energy and raw materials in the world, it is necessary to be alert to the derivative risks of rising commodity prices caused by sanctions against Russia. For asset prices: Referring to the above experience, if only this conflict is considered, there will still be downward pressure in the global stock market in the next month, the yield of Treasury Bond will trend downward, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, after one month, the asset price trend will return to the dominance of fundamentals; The prices of steel, corn, wheat, barley, fertilizer and other commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply blockages. For global inflation: pushing up the oil price to a high level in the short term, increasing the global inflationary pressure, among which: 1) the inflation in the United States is still high in the short term, and the inflection point of the decline will also be delayed; 2) For China, according to the calculation, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive CPI and PPI up by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively. It is expected that the annual CPI will still be low before and then high, and it is difficult to change the downward trend of PPI even if the oil price rises; 3) In view of the fact that the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is obviously greater than that of CPI, it will disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor gap in China, and also disturb the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of enterprise profits. On the rhythm of the Fed's rate hike: The Russia-Ukraine conflict will aggravate the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increase the downward pressure on US stocks, thus restricting the pace of the Fed's rate hike. In fact, the Fed's rate hike expectations have begun to cool since mid-February. Maintain the previous judgment: in 2022, the Federal Reserve will be hawk first and pigeon later, and it is expected to raise interest rates 3-4 times throughout the year. The text is as follows:</p><p>1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the possibility of evolving into war has greatly increased. The Russia-Ukraine issue has a long history, among which the core differences lie in \"NATO's eastward expansion\" and \"Ukraine's accession to NATO\". In mid-January 2022, Russia successively held talks with the United States, NATO and OSCE on the situation in Ukraine, but no significant results were achieved. After a month-long game, the conflict between the two sides escalated again: on the 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. At the same time, he ordered \"peacekeeping troops\" to enter the region, which greatly increased the possibility that the conflict between the two sides would turn into war. In response, the United States announced financial sanctions against Russia and warned it was prepared to impose more if necessary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af52f7a91e964f09f82387d80558d85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906fdd0c25182405d6b9ff629db6791\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2. Taking history as a mirror, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on assets: short-term negative risk assets, favorable hedging and resource products, and weak medium and long-term impact</p><p>For better comparison, we select \"five large-scale geopolitical conflicts involving major powers\" since 2000 as the analysis object, including the 2001 Afghanistan War, 2003 Iraq War, 2011 Libya War & Syria War, and 2014 Crimea Referendum. During the outbreak of conflicts, the performance of various asset prices is as follows:</p><p>Stock market: U.S. stocks generally fell in the short term, with a decline range of basically 10-30 days, and then started to rise again; A shares mostly rise in the short term, and there is no consistent law in the medium and long term. The deviation between A shares and US stocks is, on the one hand, because these rounds of geopolitical conflicts have not involved China; on the other hand, the correlation between A shares and US stocks is low before 2015;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e270fdee3a166416e98f5c2fdf52ea3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bond market: The yield of 10Y U.S. bonds generally declined in the short term, and the downward range was also 10-30 days, and then continued to decline after a short rebound; The yield of 10Y Chinese bonds also mostly declined in the short term, and the medium and long-term trend was volatile;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7697addec2acb2db96ccf9e263363fbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index has continued to fall three times, continued to rise one time and fluctuated one time;</p><p>Gold: Spot gold continued to fall twice, rise twice, and then rise once;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0550757b3c7c99d521b0a87637d529a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Crude oil: Crude oil prices generally rise in the short term, and the rising range is also 10-30 days, and there is no consistent law in the medium and long term trend;</p><p>Copper: Copper prices mostly fall in the short term, and the decline range is also 10-30 days. There is no consistent law in the medium and long-term trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e7067c2e912053babb0dedecb700c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Summary of rules: In summary, it can be seen that geopolitical conflicts will be negative for risk assets, safe-haven assets and energy products in the short term, and their impact is often concentrated in 10-30 days after the conflict breaks out, which has a weak impact on the medium-and long-term trend of asset prices.</p><p>3. Four-point deduction of the impact of this Russia-Ukraine conflict: global economy, asset prices, global inflation, and the rhythm of the Federal Reserve's rate hike</p><p>1) Impact on the global economy: If the conflict continues to escalate, Russia will probably face a new round of sanctions, which will also drag down the global economy. As of 2020, Russia's GDP and total import and export goods amounted to US$1.5 trillion and US$569.3 billion, respectively, accounting for 1.7% and 1.6% of the global total, respectively, and it is expected to have limited direct impact on the global economy and trade. However, considering that Russia is the world's leading exporter of energy and raw materials, we should be alert to the risks derived from rising commodity prices caused by sanctions against Russia. For example, in 2020, Russia's natural gas exports were about 199.9 billion cubic meters, accounting for about 16.2% of global natural gas exports, of which about 80% were exported to Europe, accounting for more than 40% of European natural gas imports. If the situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense and the United States and Europe launch a new round of sanctions against Russia, it will further aggravate the natural gas shortage pattern in Europe, thus dragging down the European economy.</p><p>2) Impact on asset prices: Combined with the above analysis, if the fire in Wudong on February 17th is taken as the starting point of the conflict, there will still be downward pressure on the global stock market in the next month, the yield of Treasury Bond will still decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further; But after a month, asset price movement will return to fundamental dominance. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are also important exporters of steel, corn, wheat, barley, fertilizer and other commodities in the world (see Chart 11 for specific commodities and shares). If the conflict between the two sides continues to intensify, the prices of these commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply blockages.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5c88fd3fca5f8262509fb196612c61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82a027493d3e9b071117b063493e8d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3) Impact on inflation: Pushing up oil prices at a high level in the short term, increasing global inflationary pressure, but it is difficult to change the downward trend of China's PPI</p><p>U.S. inflation: still high in the short term, and the inflection point of retreat will also be delayed. In previous reports, we have repeatedly pointed out that inflation in developed countries such as the United States is greatly affected by energy prices. According to a rough estimate, if the average oil price in the next 1-3 months is assumed to be USD 105/barrel, the CPI of the United States from February to March will further rise to about 8% year-on-year; If the oil price can't fall quickly, the inflection point of inflation in the United States may be delayed until around May.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf730b4ac6bfc18f1c5eb4f702a4166\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>China's inflation: According to the calculation, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive CPI and PPI up by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively; Throughout the year, CPI is expected to remain low before and then high, and the upward trend of oil prices is expected to be difficult to change the downward trend of PPI.</p><p>1) CPI: The oil price mainly affects the two sub-items of CPI: residential hydropower fuel and transportation fuel. If the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it will drive the above two sub-items up by 0.8 and 2.3 percentage points respectively. Combined with the weight of the above sub-items in CPI, it can be converted that if the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it may drive the CPI up by 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, the average oil price rose to USD 92.7/barrel in the first 21 days of February, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, which is expected to boost the CPI by about 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Considering the price changes of base, food and non-food items, it is expected that the CPI in February may rise slightly year-on-year. Looking at the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low before and then high, and the annual center may be higher than 2.0% under the benchmark scenario.</p><p>2) PPI: Oil price mainly affects PPI oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing and other sub-items. According to the model, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive PPI oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical industry and chemical fiber up by 7.3, 4.1, 2.0 and 2.2 percentage points respectively. Considering that the above sub-items account for 0.7%, 4.3%, 6.5% and 0.8% of PPI respectively, it can be converted that if the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it may drive PPI up by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, oil prices in February are expected to drive PPI up by about 1.9 percentage points; Considering the price changes of the base and other industrial products, PPI in February may still drop slightly year-on-year. Throughout the year, as the PPI base is rising month by month, it is difficult to change the downward trend of PPI with a high probability of oil price rise.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed90879ecee1fc82d23a7e0d11ddee4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911d90c91485c6f8978e6b5b054adbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor gap & the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of enterprise profit. Based on the previous calculation, the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is obviously greater than that of CPI; Therefore, the rising oil price may disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor difference and the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of profit. Specifically, the upstream profit may still be at a high level in the short term, and the uncertainty of the improvement of the middle and downstream profit will increase. From the industrial perspective, the profits of oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical industry, chemical fiber and other industries are positively correlated with oil prices, while the profits of rubber and plastic industries are negatively correlated with oil prices. If the oil price continues to be at a high level, there may be support for the profitability of industries such as oil and gas extraction, and the suppression on the rubber and plastic industry may persist. (For details, please refer to the previous report \"2022 Earnings Will be Transmitted Upstream and Downstream — Calculation Based on PPI-CPI Scissor Gap\")<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c1dc18b4888a8b1fd254b88563c399\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>4) Impact on the rhythm of the Fed's rate hike: On the one hand, as previously analyzed, this conflict may raise US inflation and delay the inflection point of inflation, but the current Fed's rate hike expectation has fully reflected high inflation; On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increased the downward pressure on U.S. stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Fed's rate hike. On the whole, the interest rate futures data shows that since mid-February, the market expects the number of interest rate hikes in March to drop from 1.7 to 1.2, and the number of interest rate hikes in the whole year to drop from 6.6 to 5.9, reflecting that the rate hike expectation has begun to cool down. Maintaining our previous judgment: In 2022, the Federal Reserve will be hawk first and pigeon later, and it is expected to raise interest rates 3-4 times throughout the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9bbc1d19f9386cdf6bd129a69fefaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risk: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has evolved beyond expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1589878828889","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's about the global economy! 4 Impacts of the Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's about the global economy! 4 Impacts of the Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">熊园观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-23 11:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increased the downward pressure on US stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Fed's rate hike. Event: On February 21st, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the People's Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. The global stock market plummeted, and crude oil and gold soared.</p><p>Core conclusions:</p><p>1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the possibility of evolving into war has greatly increased.</p><p>2. Taking history as a mirror, the performance law of major assets after geopolitical conflicts: in the short term, it will be negative for risk assets, and good for safe-haven assets and energy products. The impact is often concentrated in 10-30 days after the conflict breaks out, and the impact on the medium-and long-term trend of asset prices is weak.</p><p>3. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, there are four possible impacts:</p><p>To the global economy: Russia is likely to face a new round of sanctions; Given that Russia is a major exporter of energy and raw materials in the world, it is necessary to be alert to the derivative risks of rising commodity prices caused by sanctions against Russia. For asset prices: Referring to the above experience, if only this conflict is considered, there will still be downward pressure in the global stock market in the next month, the yield of Treasury Bond will trend downward, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, after one month, the asset price trend will return to the dominance of fundamentals; The prices of steel, corn, wheat, barley, fertilizer and other commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply blockages. For global inflation: pushing up the oil price to a high level in the short term, increasing the global inflationary pressure, among which: 1) the inflation in the United States is still high in the short term, and the inflection point of the decline will also be delayed; 2) For China, according to the calculation, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive CPI and PPI up by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively. It is expected that the annual CPI will still be low before and then high, and it is difficult to change the downward trend of PPI even if the oil price rises; 3) In view of the fact that the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is obviously greater than that of CPI, it will disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor gap in China, and also disturb the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of enterprise profits. On the rhythm of the Fed's rate hike: The Russia-Ukraine conflict will aggravate the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increase the downward pressure on US stocks, thus restricting the pace of the Fed's rate hike. In fact, the Fed's rate hike expectations have begun to cool since mid-February. Maintain the previous judgment: in 2022, the Federal Reserve will be hawk first and pigeon later, and it is expected to raise interest rates 3-4 times throughout the year. The text is as follows:</p><p>1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the possibility of evolving into war has greatly increased. The Russia-Ukraine issue has a long history, among which the core differences lie in \"NATO's eastward expansion\" and \"Ukraine's accession to NATO\". In mid-January 2022, Russia successively held talks with the United States, NATO and OSCE on the situation in Ukraine, but no significant results were achieved. After a month-long game, the conflict between the two sides escalated again: on the 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. At the same time, he ordered \"peacekeeping troops\" to enter the region, which greatly increased the possibility that the conflict between the two sides would turn into war. In response, the United States announced financial sanctions against Russia and warned it was prepared to impose more if necessary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af52f7a91e964f09f82387d80558d85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906fdd0c25182405d6b9ff629db6791\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2. Taking history as a mirror, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on assets: short-term negative risk assets, favorable hedging and resource products, and weak medium and long-term impact</p><p>For better comparison, we select \"five large-scale geopolitical conflicts involving major powers\" since 2000 as the analysis object, including the 2001 Afghanistan War, 2003 Iraq War, 2011 Libya War & Syria War, and 2014 Crimea Referendum. During the outbreak of conflicts, the performance of various asset prices is as follows:</p><p>Stock market: U.S. stocks generally fell in the short term, with a decline range of basically 10-30 days, and then started to rise again; A shares mostly rise in the short term, and there is no consistent law in the medium and long term. The deviation between A shares and US stocks is, on the one hand, because these rounds of geopolitical conflicts have not involved China; on the other hand, the correlation between A shares and US stocks is low before 2015;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e270fdee3a166416e98f5c2fdf52ea3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bond market: The yield of 10Y U.S. bonds generally declined in the short term, and the downward range was also 10-30 days, and then continued to decline after a short rebound; The yield of 10Y Chinese bonds also mostly declined in the short term, and the medium and long-term trend was volatile;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7697addec2acb2db96ccf9e263363fbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index has continued to fall three times, continued to rise one time and fluctuated one time;</p><p>Gold: Spot gold continued to fall twice, rise twice, and then rise once;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0550757b3c7c99d521b0a87637d529a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Crude oil: Crude oil prices generally rise in the short term, and the rising range is also 10-30 days, and there is no consistent law in the medium and long term trend;</p><p>Copper: Copper prices mostly fall in the short term, and the decline range is also 10-30 days. There is no consistent law in the medium and long-term trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e7067c2e912053babb0dedecb700c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Summary of rules: In summary, it can be seen that geopolitical conflicts will be negative for risk assets, safe-haven assets and energy products in the short term, and their impact is often concentrated in 10-30 days after the conflict breaks out, which has a weak impact on the medium-and long-term trend of asset prices.</p><p>3. Four-point deduction of the impact of this Russia-Ukraine conflict: global economy, asset prices, global inflation, and the rhythm of the Federal Reserve's rate hike</p><p>1) Impact on the global economy: If the conflict continues to escalate, Russia will probably face a new round of sanctions, which will also drag down the global economy. As of 2020, Russia's GDP and total import and export goods amounted to US$1.5 trillion and US$569.3 billion, respectively, accounting for 1.7% and 1.6% of the global total, respectively, and it is expected to have limited direct impact on the global economy and trade. However, considering that Russia is the world's leading exporter of energy and raw materials, we should be alert to the risks derived from rising commodity prices caused by sanctions against Russia. For example, in 2020, Russia's natural gas exports were about 199.9 billion cubic meters, accounting for about 16.2% of global natural gas exports, of which about 80% were exported to Europe, accounting for more than 40% of European natural gas imports. If the situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense and the United States and Europe launch a new round of sanctions against Russia, it will further aggravate the natural gas shortage pattern in Europe, thus dragging down the European economy.</p><p>2) Impact on asset prices: Combined with the above analysis, if the fire in Wudong on February 17th is taken as the starting point of the conflict, there will still be downward pressure on the global stock market in the next month, the yield of Treasury Bond will still decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further; But after a month, asset price movement will return to fundamental dominance. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are also important exporters of steel, corn, wheat, barley, fertilizer and other commodities in the world (see Chart 11 for specific commodities and shares). If the conflict between the two sides continues to intensify, the prices of these commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply blockages.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5c88fd3fca5f8262509fb196612c61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82a027493d3e9b071117b063493e8d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3) Impact on inflation: Pushing up oil prices at a high level in the short term, increasing global inflationary pressure, but it is difficult to change the downward trend of China's PPI</p><p>U.S. inflation: still high in the short term, and the inflection point of retreat will also be delayed. In previous reports, we have repeatedly pointed out that inflation in developed countries such as the United States is greatly affected by energy prices. According to a rough estimate, if the average oil price in the next 1-3 months is assumed to be USD 105/barrel, the CPI of the United States from February to March will further rise to about 8% year-on-year; If the oil price can't fall quickly, the inflection point of inflation in the United States may be delayed until around May.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf730b4ac6bfc18f1c5eb4f702a4166\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>China's inflation: According to the calculation, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive CPI and PPI up by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively; Throughout the year, CPI is expected to remain low before and then high, and the upward trend of oil prices is expected to be difficult to change the downward trend of PPI.</p><p>1) CPI: The oil price mainly affects the two sub-items of CPI: residential hydropower fuel and transportation fuel. If the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it will drive the above two sub-items up by 0.8 and 2.3 percentage points respectively. Combined with the weight of the above sub-items in CPI, it can be converted that if the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it may drive the CPI up by 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, the average oil price rose to USD 92.7/barrel in the first 21 days of February, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, which is expected to boost the CPI by about 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Considering the price changes of base, food and non-food items, it is expected that the CPI in February may rise slightly year-on-year. Looking at the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low before and then high, and the annual center may be higher than 2.0% under the benchmark scenario.</p><p>2) PPI: Oil price mainly affects PPI oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing and other sub-items. According to the model, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive PPI oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical industry and chemical fiber up by 7.3, 4.1, 2.0 and 2.2 percentage points respectively. Considering that the above sub-items account for 0.7%, 4.3%, 6.5% and 0.8% of PPI respectively, it can be converted that if the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it may drive PPI up by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, oil prices in February are expected to drive PPI up by about 1.9 percentage points; Considering the price changes of the base and other industrial products, PPI in February may still drop slightly year-on-year. Throughout the year, as the PPI base is rising month by month, it is difficult to change the downward trend of PPI with a high probability of oil price rise.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed90879ecee1fc82d23a7e0d11ddee4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911d90c91485c6f8978e6b5b054adbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor gap & the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of enterprise profit. Based on the previous calculation, the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is obviously greater than that of CPI; Therefore, the rising oil price may disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor difference and the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of profit. Specifically, the upstream profit may still be at a high level in the short term, and the uncertainty of the improvement of the middle and downstream profit will increase. From the industrial perspective, the profits of oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical industry, chemical fiber and other industries are positively correlated with oil prices, while the profits of rubber and plastic industries are negatively correlated with oil prices. If the oil price continues to be at a high level, there may be support for the profitability of industries such as oil and gas extraction, and the suppression on the rubber and plastic industry may persist. (For details, please refer to the previous report \"2022 Earnings Will be Transmitted Upstream and Downstream — Calculation Based on PPI-CPI Scissor Gap\")<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c1dc18b4888a8b1fd254b88563c399\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>4) Impact on the rhythm of the Fed's rate hike: On the one hand, as previously analyzed, this conflict may raise US inflation and delay the inflection point of inflation, but the current Fed's rate hike expectation has fully reflected high inflation; On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increased the downward pressure on U.S. stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Fed's rate hike. On the whole, the interest rate futures data shows that since mid-February, the market expects the number of interest rate hikes in March to drop from 1.7 to 1.2, and the number of interest rate hikes in the whole year to drop from 6.6 to 5.9, reflecting that the rate hike expectation has begun to cool down. Maintaining our previous judgment: In 2022, the Federal Reserve will be hawk first and pigeon later, and it is expected to raise interest rates 3-4 times throughout the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9bbc1d19f9386cdf6bd129a69fefaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risk: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has evolved beyond expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565\">熊园观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bc03fbf058ce151dd2a13f771bc11dc","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","518880":"黄金ETF华安","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 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Index","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2213496312","content_text":"摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，全球股市大跌，原油、黄金大涨。核心结论：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突后大类资产的表现规律：短期会利空风险资产，利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。3、如果本次俄乌冲突持续升级，可能的4点影响：对全球经济：俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁；鉴于俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨的衍生风险。对资产价格：参照前述经验，若仅考虑本次冲突，未来一个月内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨，但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导；钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品价格，短期内可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。对全球通胀：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，其中：1）美国通胀短期仍高，回落拐点也将延后；2）对中国，按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%，预计全年CPI仍将前低后高，油价上行也难改PPI下行趋势；3）鉴于油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI，这将扰动我国PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏，也会扰动企业盈利上下游传导节奏。对美联储加息节奏：俄乌冲突将加剧全球经济前景的不确定性，也将加大美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事实上，2月中旬以来，美联储加息预期已开始降温。维持此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。正文如下：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。俄乌问题由来已久，其中核心分歧在于“北约东扩”、“乌克兰加入北约”，2022年1月中旬俄罗斯曾先后与美国、北约、欧安组织就乌克兰局势举行会谈，但未取得明显成效。经过长达1个月的博弈，双方冲突再度升级：21日俄罗斯总统普京签署了承认顿涅茨克人民共和国和卢甘斯克人民共和国的总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，同时下令“维和部队”进入该地区，双方冲突演变成战争的可能性大增。作为回应，美国宣布对俄罗斯实施金融制裁，并警告说如有必要，准备实施更多制裁。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突对资产的影响：短期利空风险资产、利好避险和资源品，中长期影响较弱为了更好地对比，我们选取2000年以来“5次规模较大、涉及主要大国的地缘冲突”作为分析对象，包括2001年阿富汗战争、2003年伊拉克战争、2011年利比亚战争&叙利亚战争，2014年克里米亚公投，冲突爆发期间，各类资产价格的表现情况如下：股市：美股短期普遍下跌，下跌区间基本在10-30天，随后重新开始上涨；A股则短期大多表现为上涨，中长期走势无一致规律。A股与美股背离，一方面是由于这几轮地缘冲突均未涉及中国，另一方面则是2015年之前A股与美股相关性较低；债市：10Y美债收益率短期普遍下行，下行区间同样在10-30天，随后在短暂反弹后继续下行；10Y中债收益率短期也大多下行，中长期走势偏震荡；汇率：美元指数有3次持续下跌、1次持续上涨、1次偏震荡；黄金：现货黄金2次持续下跌、2次持续上涨、1次先跌后涨；原油：原油价格短期普遍上涨，上涨区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律；铜：铜价短期大多下跌，下跌区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律。规律总结：综上梳理可知，地缘冲突短期会利空风险资产、利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。3、本次俄乌冲突影响的4点推演：全球经济、资产价格、全球通胀、美联储加息节奏1）对全球经济的影响：如果冲突继续升级，俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁，也将对全球经济形成拖累。截至2020年，俄罗斯GDP、进出口商品总额分别为1.5万亿美元、5693亿美元，分别占全球的1.7%、1.6%，预计对全球经济和贸易的直接影响有限。但考虑到俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨衍生出来的风险。比如，2020年俄罗斯天然气出口约1999亿立方米，占全球天然气出口的份额约16.2%，其中约80%出口欧洲，占欧洲天然气进口的40%以上，如果后续俄乌局势持续紧张、美欧对俄罗斯开启新一轮制裁，将进一步加剧欧洲天然气短缺格局，从而拖累欧洲经济。2）对资产价格的影响：结合前述分析，若以2月17日乌东地区开火作为冲突爆发的起点，则未来近一个月的时间内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率仍趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨；但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导。此外，俄罗斯和乌克兰也是全球钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品的重要出口国（具体商品和份额见图表11），若双方冲突持续加剧，短期内这些商品的价格可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。3）对通胀的影响：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，但难改我国PPI下行趋势美国通胀：短期仍高，回落拐点也将延迟。前期报告我们多次指出，美国等发达国家通胀受能源价格影响较大。根据粗略估算，若假设油价未来1-3个月均值均为105美元/桶，美国2-3月CPI同比将进一步升至8%左右；若油价无法快速回落，美国通胀拐点时间可能延迟到5月前后。中国通胀：按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%；全年看，CPI预计仍将前低后高，油价上行预计难改PPI下行趋势。1）CPI：油价主要影响CPI居住水电燃料、交通工具用燃料两个分项，如果油价同比上涨10%，将分别带动上述两个分项上涨0.8、2.3个百分点，结合上述分项占CPI的权重，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动CPI同比上行0.09个百分点。短期看，2月前21天油价均值涨至92.7美元/桶，同比增48.8%，预计将提振CPI同比约0.5个百分点，综合考虑基数、食品、非食品分项价格变动，预计2月CPI同比可能小幅回升。全年看，CPI预计仍会维持前低后高，基准情形下全年中枢可能高于2.0%。2）PPI：油价主要影响PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工制造、化纤制造等分项，按照模型测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别带动PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤分项上行7.3、4.1、2.0和2.2个百分点，考虑上述分项占PPI的比重分别为0.7%、4.3%、6.5%和0.8%，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动PPI同比上行0.4个百分点。短期看，2月油价预计拉动PPI上行约1.9个百分点；综合考虑基数及其他工业品价格变动，2月PPI同比可能仍将小幅回落。全年看，由于PPI基数逐月回升，油价上涨大概率难改PPI下行趋势。扰动PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏&企业盈利上下游传导节奏。基于前文的测算，油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI；因此油价上涨可能对PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏和盈利上下游传导节奏均形成扰动。具体看，上游盈利短期可能仍将处于较高水平，中下游盈利改善的不确定性增加。产业视角看，油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤等行业盈利跟油价正相关，橡胶塑料行业盈利跟油价负相关。如果油价持续处于较高水平，油气开采等行业盈利可能存在支撑，对橡胶塑料行业的压制可能持续存在。（详见前期报告《2022年盈利将上下游传导—基于PPI-CPI剪刀差的测算》）4）对美联储加息节奏的影响：一方面，如前分析，本次冲突可能抬升美国通胀并延后通胀拐点，但当前美联储加息预期已充分反映了高通胀；另一方面，俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。综合看，利率期货数据显示，2月中旬以来，市场预期3月加息次数由1.7次降至1.2次，全年加息次数由6.6次降至5.9次，反映出加息预期已开始降温。维持我们此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。风险提示：俄乌冲突超预期演化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"518880":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"CLmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DWT":0.6,"UNG":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDS":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"TNmain":0.9,"QID":0.6,"NGmain":0.9,"DUG":0.6,"BZmain":0.6,"SCO":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"QMmain":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.6,"DWTIF":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.6,"ZBmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.6,"USO":0.6,"UWTIF":0.6,"UGAZ":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"DDM":0.6,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEX":0.6,"UCO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094600287,"gmtCreate":1645133343196,"gmtModify":1676533999907,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585175863243941","authorIdStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Ok","listText":"&nbsp;Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094600287","repostId":"1136461482","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"i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