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2023-12-11

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2022-10-28

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2022-10-28

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2022-09-16

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Tightening expectations are rising again! U.S. mortgage interest rate exceeds 6% mark for the first time since 2008

2022-09-16

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2022-06-08

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2022-06-08

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Bank of America strategist: Investors don't think a U.S. recession is coming

2022-05-25

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2022-05-25

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Has U.S. debt passed its lowest point? Wall Street veterans decided to gamble

2022-05-25

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When will U.S. stocks fall? When will the Fed panic so that the market will not panic

2022-05-09

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2022-04-19

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@投资界:精“材”路演上線！「創投W+」新材料專場路演順利舉行

2022-04-12

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Four major differences between European and American high inflation engines

2022-02-10

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Lepu Biotech will launch its IPO today, and the admission fee is HK $7454.38

2022-02-08

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2022-02-07

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Tesla "admits loss": buying Bitcoin, "losing" more than 100 million US dollars

2022-01-13

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Wages and Prices Spiral, Can the Fed Stop the U.S. Recession?

2022-01-13

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Wages and Prices Spiral, Can the Fed Stop the U.S. Recession?

2022-01-13

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2022-01-11

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23:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tightening expectations are rising again! U.S. mortgage interest rate exceeds 6% mark for the first time since 2008","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2267068823","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高涨的房贷利率严重挤压房地产贷款需求，更多的购房者开始持币观望。伴随着美联储政策持续收紧，美国最受欢迎的住房贷款平均利率自2008年以来首次升至6%以上。抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）数据显示，截至9月","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The rising mortgage interest rate has severely squeezed the demand for real estate loans, and more property buyers have begun to wait and see. As the Federal Reserve continues to tighten policy, the average interest rate on the most popular home loan in the United States rose above 6% for the first time since 2008.</p><p>According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate in the United States rose to 6.01% in the week ending September 9, breaking the 6% mark for the first time since 2008 and twice that of the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d221eff5a83aecbb6996b21f7f45d5a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Soaring mortgage interest rates have severely squeezed the demand for real estate loans.</b>Mortgage home purchase applications fell 29% for the week ending Sept. 9 compared to the same period in 2021. The Market Composite Index, which measures mortgage applications, fell 1.2% from the previous week. The MBA Refinance Index is down 4% from the previous week and 83% from the same period last year. Joel Kan, the MBA's vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said,<b>Rising mortgage rates are causing more homebuyers to sit on the sidelines.</b></p><p>As the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the entire U.S. real estate industry is affected by higher interest rates. Previous data showed that new home sales in the United States in July were 12.6% higher than the previous month, which was significantly lower than the expected 2.5% decline. New home sales fell month-on-month in six of the past seven months. Sales shrank to their lowest level in six and a half years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3a07a596f24e18a871d1e6cc1b627a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While sales were sluggish, new home inventories in the United States were high. As of the end of July, there were 464,000 new homes for sale, the most since 2008. At the current pace of sales, it will take 10.9 months to empty the supply of new homes, the highest inventory-to-sales ratio since March 2009 and almost double that at the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5da9e4aaf175e9be328df0ab07033077\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Although the new home market only accounts for 10% of the U.S. property market, the sales of new homes are calculated according to the data at the time of signing the purchase contract, which is different from the sales of existing homes after signing the contract and then included in the statistics, so it is regarded as the leading indicator of the U.S. property market.<b>Some market analysts believe that in view of the plunge in housing mortgage loan applications, new home sales are expected to fall further in the future.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tightening expectations are rising again! U.S. mortgage interest rate exceeds 6% mark for the first time since 2008</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTightening expectations are rising again! U.S. mortgage interest rate exceeds 6% mark for the first time since 2008\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-15 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The rising mortgage interest rate has severely squeezed the demand for real estate loans, and more property buyers have begun to wait and see. As the Federal Reserve continues to tighten policy, the average interest rate on the most popular home loan in the United States rose above 6% for the first time since 2008.</p><p>According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate in the United States rose to 6.01% in the week ending September 9, breaking the 6% mark for the first time since 2008 and twice that of the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d221eff5a83aecbb6996b21f7f45d5a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Soaring mortgage interest rates have severely squeezed the demand for real estate loans.</b>Mortgage home purchase applications fell 29% for the week ending Sept. 9 compared to the same period in 2021. The Market Composite Index, which measures mortgage applications, fell 1.2% from the previous week. The MBA Refinance Index is down 4% from the previous week and 83% from the same period last year. Joel Kan, the MBA's vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said,<b>Rising mortgage rates are causing more homebuyers to sit on the sidelines.</b></p><p>As the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the entire U.S. real estate industry is affected by higher interest rates. Previous data showed that new home sales in the United States in July were 12.6% higher than the previous month, which was significantly lower than the expected 2.5% decline. New home sales fell month-on-month in six of the past seven months. Sales shrank to their lowest level in six and a half years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3a07a596f24e18a871d1e6cc1b627a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While sales were sluggish, new home inventories in the United States were high. As of the end of July, there were 464,000 new homes for sale, the most since 2008. At the current pace of sales, it will take 10.9 months to empty the supply of new homes, the highest inventory-to-sales ratio since March 2009 and almost double that at the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5da9e4aaf175e9be328df0ab07033077\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Although the new home market only accounts for 10% of the U.S. property market, the sales of new homes are calculated according to the data at the time of signing the purchase contract, which is different from the sales of existing homes after signing the contract and then included in the statistics, so it is regarded as the leading indicator of the U.S. property market.<b>Some market analysts believe that in view of the plunge in housing mortgage loan applications, new home sales are expected to fall further in the future.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670388\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670388","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2267068823","content_text":"高涨的房贷利率严重挤压房地产贷款需求，更多的购房者开始持币观望。伴随着美联储政策持续收紧，美国最受欢迎的住房贷款平均利率自2008年以来首次升至6%以上。抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）数据显示，截至9月9日当周，美国30年期固定抵押贷款利率升至6.01%，为2008年以来首次突破6%关口，是去年同期的两倍。高涨的房贷利率严重挤压房地产贷款需求。截至9月9日当周，抵押贷款购房申请比2021年同期下降了29%。衡量抵押贷款申请量的市场综合指数较前一周下降了1.2%。MBA再融资指数较前一周下降了4%，较去年同期下降了83%。MBA负责经济和行业预测的副总裁Joel Kan表示，抵押贷款利率上升导致更多购房者持币观望。伴随着美联储持续升息，整个美国房地产行业都受到更高利率的影响。此前数据显示，美国7月新屋销售环比大12.6%，大幅不及预期的下跌2.5%，新屋销售在过去七个月中，有六个月环比下跌。销售量萎缩至六年半以来的最低水平。销售萎靡的同时，美国新屋库存高企。截至7月末，有46.4万套新房待售，为2008年以来最多。按照目前的销售速度计算，将需要10.9个月才能清空新房供应，这是自2009年3月以来的最高库销比，几乎是今年年初的两倍。新屋市场虽仅占美国楼市的一成，但新屋销售按照签订购房合同之时的数据计算，与签约完成再纳入统计的成屋销售有所区别，因此被视为美国楼市的领先指标。有市场分析认为，鉴于房屋按揭贷款申请的暴跌，新屋销售未来预计仍将进一步下跌。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934222915,"gmtCreate":1663260376337,"gmtModify":1676537239022,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934222915","repostId":"2267687636","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051335618,"gmtCreate":1654644895034,"gmtModify":1676535482645,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051335618","repostId":"2241270077","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051335184,"gmtCreate":1654644877348,"gmtModify":1676535482645,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051335184","repostId":"2241907023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2241907023","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654643193,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2241907023?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-08 07:06","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America strategist: Investors don't think a U.S. recession is coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2241907023","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"策略师们表示， 美国银行客户并不认为经济衰退即将来临，自2021年7月以来，流入美国周期性股票的资金继续超过流入防御性股票的资金。Jill Carey Hall等策略师在报告中写道，美银客户上周成为美国股票的净买家，散户客户居首。客户买入单一股票，ETF则出现1月以来最大资金流出；中型股被买入，大盘股和小盘股遭抛售。需要注意到的是，随着财报季结束，股票回购速度较前一周有所放缓。策略师表示，标普500指数11个行业板块中8个走高，科技和非必需消费品股领涨。股民福利来了！十大金股送给你，带你掘金“黄金坑”！点击查看>>","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Strategists said,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Clients don't think a recession is imminent, and inflows into U.S. cyclical stocks have continued to outweigh inflows into defensive stocks since July 2021.</p><p>Strategists such as Jill Carey Hall wrote in the report that Bank of America clients became net buyers of U.S. stocks last week, with retail clients leading the way.</p><p>Customers buy a single stock,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>There will be the largest capital outflow since January; Mid-cap stocks were bought and large-cap and small-cap stocks were sold off.</p><p>It's important to note that as earnings season ends, the pace of share buybacks has slowed from the previous week.</p><p>Eight of the 11 industry sectors in the S&P 500 were higher, led by technology and consumer discretionary stocks, strategists said.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America strategist: Investors don't think a U.S. recession is coming</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America strategist: Investors don't think a U.S. recession is coming\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-08 07:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Strategists said,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Clients don't think a recession is imminent, and inflows into U.S. cyclical stocks have continued to outweigh inflows into defensive stocks since July 2021.</p><p>Strategists such as Jill Carey Hall wrote in the report that Bank of America clients became net buyers of U.S. stocks last week, with retail clients leading the way.</p><p>Customers buy a single stock,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>There will be the largest capital outflow since January; Mid-cap stocks were bought and large-cap and small-cap stocks were sold off.</p><p>It's important to note that as earnings season ends, the pace of share buybacks has slowed from the previous week.</p><p>Eight of the 11 industry sectors in the S&P 500 were higher, led by technology and consumer discretionary stocks, strategists said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-07/doc-imizmscu5622440.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e9ba109e7f6844f2904f6647779f151","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BAC":"美国银行","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-07/doc-imizmscu5622440.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2241907023","content_text":"策略师们表示， 美国银行客户并不认为经济衰退即将来临，自2021年7月以来，流入美国周期性股票的资金继续超过流入防御性股票的资金。Jill Carey Hall等策略师在报告中写道，美银客户上周成为美国股票的净买家，散户客户居首。客户买入单一股票，Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF则出现1月以来最大资金流出；中型股被买入，大盘股和小盘股遭抛售。需要注意到的是，随着财报季结束，股票回购速度较前一周有所放缓。策略师表示，标普500指数11个行业板块中8个走高，科技和非必需消费品股领涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"ESmain":0.6,"BAC":0.9,"OEF":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026712553,"gmtCreate":1653435450372,"gmtModify":1676535280170,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026712553","repostId":"2238304789","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026716559,"gmtCreate":1653435408272,"gmtModify":1676535280154,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026716559","repostId":"2238371098","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2238371098","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653433904,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2238371098?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-25 07:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Has U.S. debt passed its lowest point? Wall Street veterans decided to gamble","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238371098","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"从贝莱德到T． Rowe Price Group Inc．，华尔街一些对判断债市荣枯颇有经验的市场老手看到了预示可重新买入的迹象。　　但没有人急着下市场见底的判断，因为美国通胀率仍处于四十年高点，而且美联储刚开始收紧货币政策。　　但是，今年以来美国国债收益率已经飙升了许多，其中10年期国债收益率上涨近一倍，令人回想起上一次退潮时被证明时机不错的买入窗口。10年期国债收益率周二盘中一度下挫13基点至2.72%，创4月27日以来最低水平。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>From<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>To T. Rowe Price Group Inc., some market veterans on Wall Street who are experienced in judging the boom and bust of the bond market see signs that they can rebuy.</p><p>But no one is in a hurry to judge that the market has bottomed out, because the inflation rate in the United States is still at a 40-year high and the Federal Reserve has just begun to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>However, the yield of U.S. Treasury Bond has soared a lot this year, with the yield of 10-year Treasury Bond nearly doubling, recalling the buying window that proved to be well timed at the last ebb tide. On top of that, there are signs that the economy is cooling, with big retailers reporting changes in consumer spending and a decline in residential sales. The decline in risky assets such as growth stocks and cryptocurrencies has made the U.S. Treasury Bond a safe haven again. Investors who entered the market earlier this month when yields peaked earned good returns.</p><p>All of this gives long-term fund managers a reason to cautiously increase their exposure, with some prepared to step up the pace of buying when yields exceed what they think is reasonable.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The global head of interest rates at Asset Management said that the worst phase of the decline in U.S. bonds has passed, because the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has been largely priced in by the market.</p><p>David Giroux, head of investment strategy at T. Rowe Price Investment Management, said, \"A lot of the bad news has been digested, and the current environment is reminiscent of 2013 and 2018, when the 10-year Treasury Bond yield exceeded 3%. We cut our cash allocation, has been buying U.S. Treasury Bond.\"</p><p>Market sentiment has shifted significantly over the past two weeks, with investors speculating that the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global monetary policy tightening will drag down economic growth. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell 13 basis points to 2.72% on Tuesday, the lowest level since April 27.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0a7c3dc21d9e61d01823242de860909\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. Treasury Bond markets remain facing considerable uncertainty, and if the Fed finds itself battling persistent inflation, yields could exceed the peak of the past decade. Powell said last week that the Fed is prepared to adjust its policy rate above neutral until there is \"clear and compelling\" evidence that inflation is falling. In addition, the Federal Reserve will also begin shrinking balance sheet in June, which may bring new headwinds to the market.</p><p>Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group released a rather cautious research report, predicting that the yield of 10-year Treasury Bond will reach around 3.3% by the end of the year.</p><p>\"We don't think it's at a point where we can get the green light,\" said RJ Gallo, senior portfolio manager at Federated Investment. \"The economy still has growth momentum, and the inflation rate is not falling rapidly.\"</p><p>However, there are some signals that the Fed's moves are leading to tightening financial conditions. The rise in indicators to measure corporate credit risk makes the borrowing cost of heavily indebted companies rise. Mortgage rates are slowing down the housing market, and this year's stock market decline may further erode consumer confidence.</p><p>Yvette Klevan, portfolio manager for Lazard Asset Management's global fixed income team, said that \"we're not completely out of inflation, so yields are likely to rise slightly\". But she added that \"given that a lot has been priced in, the yield on 10-year US Treasury Bond should be around 3%\".</p><p>Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of the global fixed income business at BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, said, \"Several funds have added more interest rate exposure in recent weeks, and there are concerns that interest rates will be much higher, and we are already betting on the other side\".</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Has U.S. debt passed its lowest point? Wall Street veterans decided to gamble</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHas U.S. debt passed its lowest point? Wall Street veterans decided to gamble\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-25 07:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>From<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>To T. Rowe Price Group Inc., some market veterans on Wall Street who are experienced in judging the boom and bust of the bond market see signs that they can rebuy.</p><p>But no one is in a hurry to judge that the market has bottomed out, because the inflation rate in the United States is still at a 40-year high and the Federal Reserve has just begun to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>However, the yield of U.S. Treasury Bond has soared a lot this year, with the yield of 10-year Treasury Bond nearly doubling, recalling the buying window that proved to be well timed at the last ebb tide. On top of that, there are signs that the economy is cooling, with big retailers reporting changes in consumer spending and a decline in residential sales. The decline in risky assets such as growth stocks and cryptocurrencies has made the U.S. Treasury Bond a safe haven again. Investors who entered the market earlier this month when yields peaked earned good returns.</p><p>All of this gives long-term fund managers a reason to cautiously increase their exposure, with some prepared to step up the pace of buying when yields exceed what they think is reasonable.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The global head of interest rates at Asset Management said that the worst phase of the decline in U.S. bonds has passed, because the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has been largely priced in by the market.</p><p>David Giroux, head of investment strategy at T. Rowe Price Investment Management, said, \"A lot of the bad news has been digested, and the current environment is reminiscent of 2013 and 2018, when the 10-year Treasury Bond yield exceeded 3%. We cut our cash allocation, has been buying U.S. Treasury Bond.\"</p><p>Market sentiment has shifted significantly over the past two weeks, with investors speculating that the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global monetary policy tightening will drag down economic growth. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell 13 basis points to 2.72% on Tuesday, the lowest level since April 27.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0a7c3dc21d9e61d01823242de860909\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. Treasury Bond markets remain facing considerable uncertainty, and if the Fed finds itself battling persistent inflation, yields could exceed the peak of the past decade. Powell said last week that the Fed is prepared to adjust its policy rate above neutral until there is \"clear and compelling\" evidence that inflation is falling. In addition, the Federal Reserve will also begin shrinking balance sheet in June, which may bring new headwinds to the market.</p><p>Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group released a rather cautious research report, predicting that the yield of 10-year Treasury Bond will reach around 3.3% by the end of the year.</p><p>\"We don't think it's at a point where we can get the green light,\" said RJ Gallo, senior portfolio manager at Federated Investment. \"The economy still has growth momentum, and the inflation rate is not falling rapidly.\"</p><p>However, there are some signals that the Fed's moves are leading to tightening financial conditions. The rise in indicators to measure corporate credit risk makes the borrowing cost of heavily indebted companies rise. Mortgage rates are slowing down the housing market, and this year's stock market decline may further erode consumer confidence.</p><p>Yvette Klevan, portfolio manager for Lazard Asset Management's global fixed income team, said that \"we're not completely out of inflation, so yields are likely to rise slightly\". But she added that \"given that a lot has been priced in, the yield on 10-year US Treasury Bond should be around 3%\".</p><p>Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of the global fixed income business at BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, said, \"Several funds have added more interest rate exposure in recent weeks, and there are concerns that interest rates will be much higher, and we are already betting on the other side\".</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-25/doc-imizirau4597088.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0a7c3dc21d9e61d01823242de860909","relate_stocks":{"SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-25/doc-imizirau4597088.shtml?finpagefr=p_115","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2238371098","content_text":"从贝莱德到T． Rowe Price Group Inc．，华尔街一些对判断债市荣枯颇有经验的市场老手看到了预示可重新买入的迹象。但没有人急着下市场见底的判断，因为美国通胀率仍处于四十年高点，而且美联储刚开始收紧货币政策。但是，今年以来美国国债收益率已经飙升了许多，其中10年期国债收益率上涨近一倍，令人回想起上一次退潮时被证明时机不错的买入窗口。最重要的是，迹象表明经济正在降温， 大型零售商报告消费者支出发生变化，住宅销售下降。成长股、加密货币等风险资产下挫令美国国债再次成为避险天堂，本月早些时候在收益率见顶时入市买入的投资者获得了不错回报。所有这些都让长线基金经理看到了谨慎增加风险敞口的理由，一些人准备在收益率超过他们认为合理的水平时加快买入步伐。摩根大通资产管理的全球利率主管说，美债下跌最猛烈的阶段已经过去，因为美联储的升息前景基本被市场所消化。T． Rowe Price Investment Management投资策略主管David Giroux表示，“很多利空消息已经被消化，现在的环境让人联想到2013年和2018年，当时10年期国债收益率超过3%。 我们削减了现金配置，一直在购买美国国债。”过去两周市场情绪发生了明显转变，投资者猜测俄乌冲突和全球货币政策收紧将拖累经济增长。10年期国债收益率周二盘中一度下挫13基点至2.72%，创4月27日以来最低水平。美国国债市场仍然面临相当大的不确定性，如果美联储发现自己在对抗持续的通胀，那么收益率可能会超过过去十年的峰值。 鲍威尔上周表示，美联储准备将政策利率调整至中性水平以上，直到有“明确且令人信服”的证据表明通胀正在下降。此外，美联储还将从6月开始缩表，这可能给市场带来新的阻力。高盛集团分析师发布了一份颇为谨慎的研报，预测10年期国债收益率将在年末时达到3.3%左右。“我们认为现在还没有达到我们可以绿灯通行的地步，”Federated Investment的高级投资组合经理RJ Gallo表示。“经济仍然有增长动能，通胀率没有迅速下降。”然而，有一些信号显示美联储的举措正在导致金融环境收紧。衡量企业信用风险的指标上升，使得负债累累的公司举债成本上升。抵押贷款利率正在令房地产市场放缓，今年的股市下跌有可能进一步侵蚀消费者信心。Lazard Asset Management全球固定收益团队投资组合经理Yvette Klevan表示，“我们并没有完全摆脱通胀困境，因此收益率还可能略有上升”。但她补充称， “鉴于很多事情已经被消化，10年期美国国债的收益率应该在3%左右”。全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德的全球固定收益业务首席投资官Rick Rieder表示，“几只基金最近几周增加了更多的利率敞口，人们担心利率会高得多，我们已经在另一侧下注”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TNmain":0.6,"GOVT":0.6,"ZFmain":0.6,"TLT":0.6,"IEI":0.6,"IEF":0.6,"ZBmain":0.6,"BND":1,"SHY":0.6,"ZTmain":0.6,"UBmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026716183,"gmtCreate":1653435386942,"gmtModify":1676535280138,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026716183","repostId":"2238130573","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2238130573","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653434786,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2238130573?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-25 07:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When will U.S. stocks fall? When will the Fed panic so that the market will not panic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238130573","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美银发布报告前一天，高盛周一报告称，和2018年类似，一个潜在的衰退风险信号就足以让美联储放弃持续紧缩。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Monday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up collectively for the first time in the last four trading days. On Tuesday, they fell across the board. The S&P 500 fell more than 2% intraday, and fell into the bear market range again after last Friday, compared with the record high in January this year. More than 20%.</p><p>When will U.S. stocks bottom out? On this issue, the two major Wall Street institutions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Holding the same view, they all believe that U.S. stocks may have to fall until the Federal Reserve signals an end to monetary tightening.</p><p>On Tuesday, 24th Eastern Time, Bank of America strategists such as Benjamin Bowler released a report saying that the Federal Reserve has not provided any help to risky assets and seems to be far from starting to lend a helping hand. It pointed out that judging from past Fed interventions, indicators of market pressure such as liquidity and credit spreads of S&P 500 futures are currently at pre-Fed intervention levels.</p><p>The above-mentioned Bank of America strategist said in the report that we believe the market will continue to test the \"Fed put option\"-that is, the market view that the Fed will intervene to curb the decline if the stock market falls. But these strategists point out that,</p><p>\"There will be more market panic before the Fed starts panicking.\" The Bank of America report came a day after Goldman Sachs strategist Vickie Chang released a report on Monday saying that the Fed is unlikely to turn to easing policy without the U.S. economy entering a significant recession. But similar to 2018, a potential recession risk signal is enough for the Fed to abandon continued tightening.</p><p>Chang pointed out that historically, the Fed's monetary tightening usually ended three months before the stock market actually bottomed out, and turned to easing two months after the stock market bottomed out. Stock market corrections triggered by monetary tightening tend to bottom out when the Federal Reserve turns accommodative, regardless of whether real economic activity bottoms out.</p><p>Chang believes that investors are unlikely to get a clear signal of policy shift from the Fed at present, unless there is conclusive evidence that economic growth is slowing down and prices are cooling. Markets need to see signs of decelerating inflation to see a pivot in monetary policy. Goldman Sachs currently expects U.S. inflation to slow significantly in the second half of the year.</p><p>Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve just decided to issue a 50 basis point rate hike for the first time in 22 years. Fed President Jerome Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that the next two meetings in June and July may be suitable for this range of rate hike. Last Tuesday, Powell reiterated that it may be appropriate to continue rate hike's 50 basis point pace at the two meetings in June and July.</p><p>On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the Fed may issue a 50 basis point rate hike at each of its next two meetings, adding that he believes it is reasonable to stop rate hike in September. However, the senior Fed official who released dovish remarks does not have the right to vote at the FOMC meeting of the Fed Monetary Committee this year, and it will be his turn to enjoy the right to vote in 2024.</p><p>St. Louis Fed President Bullard, the voting committee who has FOMC voting rights this year, also said on Friday: \"We should try to get the Federal Funds rate to 3.50% by the end of 2022.\" That means 50 basis points per rate hike at all the Fed meetings for the rest of the year.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When will U.S. stocks fall? When will the Fed panic so that the market will not panic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen will U.S. stocks fall? When will the Fed panic so that the market will not panic\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-25 07:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Monday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up collectively for the first time in the last four trading days. On Tuesday, they fell across the board. The S&P 500 fell more than 2% intraday, and fell into the bear market range again after last Friday, compared with the record high in January this year. More than 20%.</p><p>When will U.S. stocks bottom out? On this issue, the two major Wall Street institutions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Holding the same view, they all believe that U.S. stocks may have to fall until the Federal Reserve signals an end to monetary tightening.</p><p>On Tuesday, 24th Eastern Time, Bank of America strategists such as Benjamin Bowler released a report saying that the Federal Reserve has not provided any help to risky assets and seems to be far from starting to lend a helping hand. It pointed out that judging from past Fed interventions, indicators of market pressure such as liquidity and credit spreads of S&P 500 futures are currently at pre-Fed intervention levels.</p><p>The above-mentioned Bank of America strategist said in the report that we believe the market will continue to test the \"Fed put option\"-that is, the market view that the Fed will intervene to curb the decline if the stock market falls. But these strategists point out that,</p><p>\"There will be more market panic before the Fed starts panicking.\" The Bank of America report came a day after Goldman Sachs strategist Vickie Chang released a report on Monday saying that the Fed is unlikely to turn to easing policy without the U.S. economy entering a significant recession. But similar to 2018, a potential recession risk signal is enough for the Fed to abandon continued tightening.</p><p>Chang pointed out that historically, the Fed's monetary tightening usually ended three months before the stock market actually bottomed out, and turned to easing two months after the stock market bottomed out. Stock market corrections triggered by monetary tightening tend to bottom out when the Federal Reserve turns accommodative, regardless of whether real economic activity bottoms out.</p><p>Chang believes that investors are unlikely to get a clear signal of policy shift from the Fed at present, unless there is conclusive evidence that economic growth is slowing down and prices are cooling. Markets need to see signs of decelerating inflation to see a pivot in monetary policy. Goldman Sachs currently expects U.S. inflation to slow significantly in the second half of the year.</p><p>Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve just decided to issue a 50 basis point rate hike for the first time in 22 years. Fed President Jerome Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that the next two meetings in June and July may be suitable for this range of rate hike. Last Tuesday, Powell reiterated that it may be appropriate to continue rate hike's 50 basis point pace at the two meetings in June and July.</p><p>On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the Fed may issue a 50 basis point rate hike at each of its next two meetings, adding that he believes it is reasonable to stop rate hike in September. However, the senior Fed official who released dovish remarks does not have the right to vote at the FOMC meeting of the Fed Monetary Committee this year, and it will be his turn to enjoy the right to vote in 2024.</p><p>St. Louis Fed President Bullard, the voting committee who has FOMC voting rights this year, also said on Friday: \"We should try to get the Federal Funds rate to 3.50% by the end of 2022.\" That means 50 basis points per rate hike at all the Fed meetings for the rest of the year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3660233\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","GS":"高盛","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEX":"标普100","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3660233","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2238130573","content_text":"周一美股三大指数才实现最近四个交易日首次集体收涨，周二就全线下跌，标普500盘中跌超2%、继上周五之后再度跌入熊市区间，较今年1月的纪录高位跌超20%。美股何时能见底？对这个问题，两大华尔街机构高盛和美国银行持同样的观点，都认为，美股可能还得下跌，直到美联储暗示结束收紧货币为止。美东时间24日周二，Benjamin Bowler等美国银行的策略师发布报告称，美联储没有给风险资产提供任何帮助，看来远未开始伸出援手。其指出，从过往美联储干预的情况看，标普500期货的流动性和信用利差这类市场压力的指标目前处于美联储干预前的水平。上述美银策略师在报告中称，我们相信，市场将继续测试“美联储看跌期权”——即如果股市下跌美联储就会出手干预遏制跌势的市场观点。但这些策略师指出，“在美联储开始恐慌前，还要有更多的市场恐慌。”美银发布上述报告前一天，高盛策略师Vickie Chang本周一发布报告称，在美国经济目前没有明显步入衰退的情况下，美联储不太可能转向宽松政策。但与2018年类似，一个潜在的衰退风险信号就足以让美联储放弃持续紧缩。Chang指出，历史上美联储的货币紧缩通常在股市真正触底三个月前就结束，在股市触底两个月后转向宽松。由货币紧缩引发的股市调整往往会在美联储转向宽松时触底，而不管实际经济活动是否触底。Chang认为，投资者目前不太可能从美联储获得政策转变的明确信号，除非有确凿证据显示经济增长放缓，物价降温。市场需要看到通胀减速的迹象，才能看到货币政策的转向。目前高盛预计，美国通胀将在下半年显著放缓。美联储本月初刚刚决定二十二年来首度一次加息50个基点，联储主席鲍威尔就在会后的新闻发布会上说，6月和7月的未来两次会议可能都适合这个幅度加息。上周二鲍威尔重申，6月和7月的两次会议上可能适合延续加息50个基点的步调。本周一，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，美联储可能会接下来的两次会议中分别加息50个基点，还说，他认为9月停止加息是合理的。不过，这位放出鸽派言论的美联储高官今年并没有联储货币委员会FOMC会议的投票权，2024年才轮到他享有投票权力。今年拥有FOMC投票权的票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德上周五还表示：“应当设法让联邦基金利率到2022年年末达到3.50%。” 这意味着在美联储将在今年余下的所有会议上每次加息50个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":1,"GS":1,"QQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SH":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"DOG":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":1,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DJX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062783674,"gmtCreate":1652107518198,"gmtModify":1676535030938,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062783674","repostId":"2234890520","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088349179,"gmtCreate":1650322831491,"gmtModify":1676534693717,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088349179","repostId":"613872623","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":613872623,"gmtCreate":1649832120000,"gmtModify":1676532974118,"author":{"id":"3579560926082632","authorId":"3579560926082632","name":"投资界","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a09632062f91283b4308e641ec08979","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579560926082632","authorIdStr":"3579560926082632"},"themes":[],"title":"精“材”路演上線！「創投W+」新材料專場路演順利舉行","htmlText":"4月8日，武漢基金產業基地「創投W+」投融資路演新材料專場順利舉行。本次活動聚焦新材料行業產學研用的深度融合，彙集6個優質項目和多位互動嘉賓線上參與交流和點評，路演項目涉及超級電容器隔膜、生物基“替塑”、AES抗菌抗病毒、高性能電化學水處理等多種新材料，集中展示了新材料領域的優質技術成果和創新應用。 活動前期，我們進行了「創投W+」投融資路演新材料專場活動線上徵集，吸引了來自深創投、鬆禾資本、九鼎投資、青域資本等近20家投資機構的投資人報名參與。會後，基地爲投資人進行了進一步對接，企業與投資人取得了直接聯繫。 活動當天，寧波柔創納米科技有限公司、貴州唯特高新能源科技有限公司、湖北譜萊光電材料有限公司、東部灣（揚州）生物新材料有限公司、浙江楓翎新材料科技有限公司、蘇州碧順環境科技有限公司在此次路演中亮相。6家企業項目各具特色，嘉賓們對項目的營銷策略、資源支持、風險與阻力、發展戰略等方面，提出了專業疑問，項目與機構代表之間形成了良好互動，多個項目獲投資機構青睞。 有項目代表表示，參加本次活動結識了很多投資人，讓他們有機會直接對話資本，探討項目成長路徑，現場思維交流和觀點的碰撞，給企業帶來了創新思考，也讓企業發展更有信心。路演中，武漢的2家本土優質企業受到投資機構的熱切關注，線上提問交流頻繁、會後對接火熱。來自浙江和江蘇的2家路演企業也表明了項目落地的意向。扶持力度大、政策體系全、創新活力足，武漢正以其特有的魅力吸引產業集聚、資本賦能，形成創投活躍的濃厚氛圍。 說到本次產業路演活動的主題，新材料作爲實體經濟的重要內容，是支撐前沿科技及新興產業發展的基石，也是增強產業鏈供應鏈自主可控能力的關鍵。 據統計，2021年我國新材料總產值有望突破7萬億元。預計2025 年新材料產業總產值實現10萬億。回望過去，我國新材料科技領域取得了長足發展，優秀成果層出不窮。國家“雙碳”目標、“卡脖子”","listText":"4月8日，武漢基金產業基地「創投W+」投融資路演新材料專場順利舉行。本次活動聚焦新材料行業產學研用的深度融合，彙集6個優質項目和多位互動嘉賓線上參與交流和點評，路演項目涉及超級電容器隔膜、生物基“替塑”、AES抗菌抗病毒、高性能電化學水處理等多種新材料，集中展示了新材料領域的優質技術成果和創新應用。 活動前期，我們進行了「創投W+」投融資路演新材料專場活動線上徵集，吸引了來自深創投、鬆禾資本、九鼎投資、青域資本等近20家投資機構的投資人報名參與。會後，基地爲投資人進行了進一步對接，企業與投資人取得了直接聯繫。 活動當天，寧波柔創納米科技有限公司、貴州唯特高新能源科技有限公司、湖北譜萊光電材料有限公司、東部灣（揚州）生物新材料有限公司、浙江楓翎新材料科技有限公司、蘇州碧順環境科技有限公司在此次路演中亮相。6家企業項目各具特色，嘉賓們對項目的營銷策略、資源支持、風險與阻力、發展戰略等方面，提出了專業疑問，項目與機構代表之間形成了良好互動，多個項目獲投資機構青睞。 有項目代表表示，參加本次活動結識了很多投資人，讓他們有機會直接對話資本，探討項目成長路徑，現場思維交流和觀點的碰撞，給企業帶來了創新思考，也讓企業發展更有信心。路演中，武漢的2家本土優質企業受到投資機構的熱切關注，線上提問交流頻繁、會後對接火熱。來自浙江和江蘇的2家路演企業也表明了項目落地的意向。扶持力度大、政策體系全、創新活力足，武漢正以其特有的魅力吸引產業集聚、資本賦能，形成創投活躍的濃厚氛圍。 說到本次產業路演活動的主題，新材料作爲實體經濟的重要內容，是支撐前沿科技及新興產業發展的基石，也是增強產業鏈供應鏈自主可控能力的關鍵。 據統計，2021年我國新材料總產值有望突破7萬億元。預計2025 年新材料產業總產值實現10萬億。回望過去，我國新材料科技領域取得了長足發展，優秀成果層出不窮。國家“雙碳”目標、“卡脖子”","text":"4月8日，武漢基金產業基地「創投W+」投融資路演新材料專場順利舉行。本次活動聚焦新材料行業產學研用的深度融合，彙集6個優質項目和多位互動嘉賓線上參與交流和點評，路演項目涉及超級電容器隔膜、生物基“替塑”、AES抗菌抗病毒、高性能電化學水處理等多種新材料，集中展示了新材料領域的優質技術成果和創新應用。 活動前期，我們進行了「創投W+」投融資路演新材料專場活動線上徵集，吸引了來自深創投、鬆禾資本、九鼎投資、青域資本等近20家投資機構的投資人報名參與。會後，基地爲投資人進行了進一步對接，企業與投資人取得了直接聯繫。 活動當天，寧波柔創納米科技有限公司、貴州唯特高新能源科技有限公司、湖北譜萊光電材料有限公司、東部灣（揚州）生物新材料有限公司、浙江楓翎新材料科技有限公司、蘇州碧順環境科技有限公司在此次路演中亮相。6家企業項目各具特色，嘉賓們對項目的營銷策略、資源支持、風險與阻力、發展戰略等方面，提出了專業疑問，項目與機構代表之間形成了良好互動，多個項目獲投資機構青睞。 有項目代表表示，參加本次活動結識了很多投資人，讓他們有機會直接對話資本，探討項目成長路徑，現場思維交流和觀點的碰撞，給企業帶來了創新思考，也讓企業發展更有信心。路演中，武漢的2家本土優質企業受到投資機構的熱切關注，線上提問交流頻繁、會後對接火熱。來自浙江和江蘇的2家路演企業也表明了項目落地的意向。扶持力度大、政策體系全、創新活力足，武漢正以其特有的魅力吸引產業集聚、資本賦能，形成創投活躍的濃厚氛圍。 說到本次產業路演活動的主題，新材料作爲實體經濟的重要內容，是支撐前沿科技及新興產業發展的基石，也是增強產業鏈供應鏈自主可控能力的關鍵。 據統計，2021年我國新材料總產值有望突破7萬億元。預計2025 年新材料產業總產值實現10萬億。回望過去，我國新材料科技領域取得了長足發展，優秀成果層出不窮。國家“雙碳”目標、“卡脖子”","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613872623","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"content":"Our efforts will be successful. As long as we persevere, there will be no failure. Come on, everyone","text":"Our efforts will be successful. As long as we persevere, there will be no failure. Come on, everyone","html":"Our efforts will be successful. As long as we persevere, there will be no failure. Come on, everyone"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014423797,"gmtCreate":1649712832480,"gmtModify":1676534553309,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014423797","repostId":"2226688741","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2226688741","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1649691182,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2226688741?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-11 23:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Four major differences between European and American high inflation engines","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2226688741","media":"格隆汇","summary":"主要观点自2021下半年以来，欧美持续面临高通胀压力，CPI同比急速上升。今年2月受俄乌局势升级影响，欧美CPI同比再创历史新高，持续高通胀压力下，欧美央行均转鹰。但欧美通胀压力来源具有明显差异，美国","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Main views</b></p><p><b>Since the second half of 2021, Europe and the United States have continued to face high inflationary pressures, and the CPI has risen rapidly year-on-year. Affected by the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine in February this year, the CPI in Europe and the United States hit a record high year-on-year. Under the pressure of continued high inflation, both European and American central banks turned hawkish. However, there are obvious differences in the sources of inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States. Inflation in the United States is \"blooming at multiple points\", but the euro zone is \"energy inflation\", that is, the pressure facing inflation in the United States is the general increase in prices of various goods and services; The vast majority of inflation in the euro zone comes from energy. Considering that energy price increases are mainly affected by supply factors, it shows that inflationary pressures in the euro zone come more from external supply shocks than from strong demand caused by rapid economic recovery. The general price increase in the United States shows that its inflationary pressures are limited by supply-side bottlenecks (such as rising energy prices) and driven by strong internal demand for durable goods and services. Therefore, in comparison, the \"resistance\" of internal demand in the United States to rate hike is stronger than that of the euro zone, and the euro zone may face greater risk of economic recession.</b></p><p><b>1. What are the similarities and differences between HICP and CPI?</b></p><p><b>In terms of compilation method,</b>The U.S. CPI only considers urban consumers; Secondly, in terms of weight adjustment, the weights of goods and services in the HICP basket of the euro zone are adjusted once a year, while the weights of goods and services in the CPI basket of the United States are adjusted every two years.</p><p><b>In terms of the weight of the consumption basket,</b>The weight of services in inflation indicators in Europe and the United States is higher than that of commodities, showing that the economic characteristics of Europe and the United States are dominated by service consumption, and the weight of services in the United States is significantly higher than that in the euro zone, about 18.3 percentage points higher. Among commodity weights, the gap between European and American food weights is the largest. The HICP food weight in the euro zone is 8.8 percentage points higher than that in the United States, followed by non-energy industrial products. Europe is 5.6 percentage points higher than that in the United States, and the energy weight in Europe is 3.9 percentage points higher than that in the United States.</p><p><b>2. How to compare inflation sources in Europe and the United States?</b></p><p><b>Due to the differences in the classification of inflation indicators in Europe and the United States, in order to facilitate comparison, we split them according to the idea of core and non-core inflation.</b>Eurostat divides the HICP of the euro zone into four major items-food, energy, non-energy industrial products and services, which can be matched with food, energy, commodities (excluding food and energy) and services (excluding energy) in the US CPI classification. Therefore, we first make a preliminary comparison of the inflation structure of the United States and Europe according to the four categories of food, energy, non-energy industrial products and services.</p><p><b>3. Four major differences in inflation \"engines\" in Europe and the United States</b></p><p><b>One of the differences: rising energy prices play an almost decisive role in high inflation in Europe, and the United States \"blossoms more\".</b>For the euro area, energy drove 3.2% year-on-year in February, accounting for 53.5% of the HICP year-on-year; In addition to energy, food, non-energy industrial products, and services in the United States \"worked together\", contributing 14.1%, 31.5%, and 33% year-on-year in February, respectively, totaling 78.6%.</p><p><b>The second difference: food prices in the euro zone are rising faster.</b>Due to the higher proportion of food in the inflation structure of the euro zone, food prices in the euro zone have risen faster since the end of 2021.</p><p><b>The third difference: durable goods in the United States generally rose, while the price increase of other durable goods in the euro zone was not obvious except for automobile prices.</b></p><p><b>The fourth difference: services are the biggest driver of U.S. CPI year-on-year, with rent contribution \"outstanding\", while services in the euro zone have a smaller increase.</b></p><p><b>To sum up, the biggest difference in the sources of inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States is that the Eurozone mainly experiences inflation driven up by commodity prices, while the United States generally experiences price increases: ① It can be seen from differences one and two that,</b>Inflation in the euro zone is more obviously dominated by external supply shocks. The pressure of energy and food price increases mainly comes from the external supply side, while energy contributes more than 50% of the high inflation in the euro zone. Recently, food has also shown a higher price increase rate than that in the United States.<b>② The difference between three and four may indicate that,</b>The inflationary pressure brought about by stronger internal demand in the euro zone is not great. In terms of durable goods, durable goods in the United States show general upward pressure, while the euro zone is only driven by automobiles. In terms of services, service inflation in the United States has the strongest overall driver of inflation, while the euro zone is facing higher pressure on transportation service price increases, and the price increase of transportation services is also related to rising energy prices. This difference may indicate that compared with the United States, the internal demand in the euro zone is weaker, and the inflationary pressure driven by demand is not great.</p><p><b>Risk warning: U.S. inflation rises higher than expected</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p><h3>one</h3><h3>Europe and the United States: the same high inflation pressure, different sources of pressure</h3><b>Since the second half of 2021, Europe and the United States have continued to face high inflationary pressures, and the CPI has risen rapidly year-on-year.</b>Affected by the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine in February this year, the CPI in Europe and the United States hit a record high year-on-year, reaching highs of 5.9% and 7.9% respectively; The month-on-month average was +0.9%, especially the euro zone was greatly affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points in February compared with January.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/344210b70f6a8e7f8063ad61f98c749f\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Under the pressure of continued high inflation, European and American central banks have turned hawkish.</b>In the euro zone, the European Central Bank raised inflation expectations across the board at the March interest rate meeting and announced that it would end the bond purchase program (APP) at a faster speed, which once again exceeded expectations and turned hawkish compared with the February meeting. On March 17, President Christine Lagarde also stated in her speech that \"the inflation level in the euro zone is unlikely to return to the level before the epidemic. The European Central Bank has begun to adjust policies in order to further promote policy normalization when necessary conditions are met.\", indicating that under high inflationary pressure, the European Central Bank is being \"forced\" to change its attitude. In the United States, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March also made it clear that one or more interest rate meetings in the future may have a rate hike of 50bps, and a shrinking balance sheet may be launched as early as May.</p><p><b>However, there are obvious differences in the sources of inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States. Inflation in the United States is \"blooming more\", but the euro zone is \"energy inflation\"</b>That is, the pressure on inflation in the United States is the general increase in prices of various goods and services; The vast majority of inflation in the euro zone comes from energy. Considering that energy price increases are mainly affected by supply factors, it shows that inflationary pressures in the euro zone come more from external supply shocks than from strong demand caused by rapid economic recovery. The general price increase in the United States shows that its inflationary pressures are limited by supply-side bottlenecks (such as rising energy prices) and driven by strong internal demand for durable goods and services. Therefore, in comparison,<b>The \"resistance\" of internal demand in the United States to rate hike is stronger than that of the euro zone, and the euro zone may face greater risk of economic recession.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56c39847928266470c03e9819fe7d45d\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b767cc36d9c22ec7a31d451cb1b6220b\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(1) What are the similarities and differences between HICP and CPI?</b></p><p><b>Before comparing the sources of inflation in Europe and the United States, first compare the similarities and differences of inflation indicators in Europe and the United States.</b>This report selects US CPI and Eurozone HICP indicators to characterize their respective inflation levels. For details of the basic situation of CPI indicators in the United States, please refer to the report \"Shrinkage or Inflation-Search and Prospect of Long-term and Short-term Dual Frameworks of Inflation in the United States & Number Theory Economy Series 11\". This report mainly introduces the inflation indicator HICP in the euro zone.</p><p>The full name of HICP is TheHarmonised Index of Consumer Prices, translated as Harmonised CPI. It is a consumer price index compiled by EU member states according to unified standards. The purpose is to make the price indexes of each member state comparable and can be summed up to obtain the consumer price index of the euro zone.</p><p>The comparison shows that there are mainly the following differences between HICP in the euro zone and CPI in the United States:</p><p><b>1. In terms of preparation methods,</b>First of all, in sample selection, the euro zone HICP tries to include rural consumers in the sample, while the US CPI only considers urban consumers; Secondly, in terms of weight adjustment, the weights of goods and services in the HICP basket of the euro zone are adjusted once a year, while the weights of goods and services in the CPI basket of the United States are adjusted every two years.</p><p><b>2. Weight of consumption basket</b>According to the caliber of core and non-core inflation, the weight of services in the inflation indicators of Europe and the United States is higher than the weight of commodities, showing that the economic characteristics of Europe and the United States are dominated by service consumption, and the weight of services in the United States is significantly higher than that of the euro zone, about 18.3 percentage points higher; Among commodity weights, the gap between European and American food weights is the largest. The HICP food weight in the euro zone is 8.8 percentage points higher than that in the United States, followed by non-energy industrial products. Europe is 5.6 percentage points higher than that in the United States, and the energy weight in Europe is 3.9 percentage points higher than that in the United States.<b>Considering that due to the recent impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of commodities such as energy and grain have risen sharply, the relatively higher food and energy weight in the European HICP consumer basket means that the euro zone will face higher food and energy inflationary pressures.</b></p><p>According to the subdivision of the consumption basket, according to the types of goods and services consumed, the HICP of the euro zone is divided into 12 categories, while the CPI of the United States includes 8 categories (see Figure 6 for details). Among them: the residential weight in the US CPI is significantly higher than the residential weight in the European HICP, which is about 19.7 percentage points higher. This is also the main source of the huge gap in service weights in Europe and the United States. The main reason may be that the Eurozone HICP does not include the estimated rent of Owner-occupied Housing, while the US CPI includes the Owner-occupied Housing part, which is recorded as \"Owners' EquivalentRent of Residences\".<b>However, the food and beverage in the European HICP is much higher than the US CPI.</b>About 11.3 percentage points higher, corresponding to the fact that the weight of food categories in the European HICP is much higher than that in the US CPI.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10abae6b02802e2a49078b647aa7933c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1abf1b276517940750f8668383b952c\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(2) How to compare inflation sources in Europe and the United States?</b></p><p><b>Due to the differences in the classification of inflation indicators in Europe and the United States, in order to facilitate comparison, we split them according to the idea of core and non-core inflation.</b>Eurostat divides the HICP of the euro zone into four major items-food, energy, non-energy industrial products and services, which can be matched with food, energy, commodities (excluding food and energy) and services (excluding energy) in the US CPI classification. Therefore, we first make a preliminary comparison of the inflation structure of the United States and Europe according to the four categories of food, energy, non-energy industrial products and services.</p><p>In order to further refine the differences in inflation structures between the United States and Europe,<b>We further split non-energy industrial products into durable goods and non-durable goods.</b>These two sub-items are included in the classification of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, so they do not need to be adjusted; For the euro area, durable goods and semi-durable goods in the official classification are combined as \"durable goods\", and \"non-durable goods\" is not adjusted.<b>For durable goods, automobiles and other durable goods are further split.</b>The classification of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics includes the automobile sub-item, so it does not need to be adjusted; For the euro area, motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts in the official classification are aggregated as automobiles.</p><p><b>The services are further split into four items: transportation services, leisure and entertainment services, rent and others.</b>For the euro area, the first two items are the contents of the official Eurostat classification and do not need to be adjusted; The rent is equal to the actual rent + catering and accommodation services in hotels; The first three items are subtracted from other service items, including communication services, etc. For the United States, transportation services, leisure and entertainment services, and rent are all contents in the official classification of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and do not need to be adjusted; Others can also be obtained by squeezing backwards. See the table below for specific classification details. After unifying the inflation caliber of the United States and Europe, we can compare the inflation structure of the United States and Europe.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cc47ade54035315be60678571cf2b38\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(3) Four major differences between inflation \"engines\" in Europe and the United States</b></p><p><b>One of the differences: rising energy prices play an almost decisive role in high inflation in Europe, while the United States \"blooms more\".</b>For the euro zone, energy contributed 3.2% to the year-on-year growth rate of HICP in February, and its contribution rate reached 53.5%; For the United States, energy contributed 1.7% to the year-on-year CPI growth rate in February, and contributed 21.3%; In addition to energy, food, non-energy industrial products, and services \"worked together\", contributing 14.1%, 31.5%, and 33% to the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in February, respectively, totaling 78.6%, indicating that the high inflation in the United States is \"Multiple blossoms\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cdc2cbdff201692fddf827873b203c5\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The second difference: food prices in the euro zone are rising faster.</b>Since the end of 2021, food prices in the euro zone have risen faster. As of February this year, the year-on-year pull rates of food price increases on inflation in Europe and the United States were 1% and 1.1% respectively. However, from the perspective of changing trends, because commodities account for a higher proportion of inflation in the euro zone, food prices have brought greater upward pressure on inflation in the euro zone.</p><p><b>The third difference: the price of durable goods in the United States generally rises, while the price of other durable goods in the euro zone is not obvious except for the price increase of automobiles.</b>From the absolute level of pull rate, the price increase of durable goods in the United States in February boosted the CPI by 2.1% year-on-year, while it was only 0.4% in the euro zone. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the price increase of durable goods in the euro zone has continued to be much smaller than that in the United States. In terms of structure, for Europe and the United States, automobiles are the main driving force for the price increase of durable goods. In February, the year-on-year driving force of European and American automobiles was 1.7% and 0.42% respectively, and their contribution to the price increase of durable goods in Europe and the United States was 80% and 103% respectively. In addition to the price increase of automobiles in the United States, other durable goods also have upward pressure on prices, which may indicate that the internal demand in the United States is strong, resulting in general upward pressure on durable goods prices; In the euro zone, in addition to the increase in automobile prices caused by supply-side factors such as \"core shortage\", the prices of other durable goods are falling instead, which may imply that the internal demand in the euro zone is not strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583f5b9b134cdafe34123c218690e477\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/077db96d692e97d750ebdb8e494c25c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The fourth difference: services are the biggest driver of U.S. CPI year-on-year, with rent contribution \"outstanding\", while services in the euro zone have a smaller increase, with leisure and entertainment services contributing the most.</b>In February, the U.S. CPI service sub-item contributed 2.6% year-on-year to overall inflation, and contributed 33% year-on-year to CPI, the highest among the four major sub-items (food, energy, non-energy industrial products, and services), while the euro zone The contribution rate of service price increases is only 17%. From a structural point of view, in the United States, the price increase of services is mainly due to the increase of rent. In addition, the price increase of transportation services also contributed to a certain extent. In February, the year-on-year boost of rent and transportation services to overall inflation recorded 1.6% and 0.3% respectively. The contribution rates of service price increases are 60% and 13% respectively; In the euro zone, leisure and entertainment services are the main driving force for service price increases. In February, the year-on-year pull rate of CPI was 0.4%, and the contribution rate of service price increases was 42%. Rents remained almost unchanged, and transportation services also contributed to a certain extent. In February, the contribution rate of service price increases was 19%, which was larger than that of the United States. The price increase of transportation services is also mainly limited by supply-side factors. On the one hand, the price increase of energy pushes up costs; on the other hand, the epidemic has led to a shortage of transportation employees, pushing up wage costs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f0d6068eff414c3598852b9b181e09\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7479eede35f1ec5b02a41335d9ce8753\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>To sum up, through comparison, it can be found that the biggest difference in the sources of inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States is that the euro zone mainly has inflation pushed up by commodity prices, while the United States has generally rising prices. More specifically:</b></p><p><b>First, it can be seen from the differences one and two that inflation in the euro zone is more obviously dominated by external supply shocks.</b>The pressure on energy and food price increases mainly comes from the external supply side, and energy contributes more than 50% to the high inflation in the euro zone. Recently, food has also shown a higher price increase rate than the United States.</p><p><b>Second, the difference three and four may indicate that the inflationary pressure brought by stronger internal demand in the euro zone is not great.</b>In terms of durable goods, durable goods in the United States showed general upward pressure, while the euro zone was only driven by automobiles. In terms of services, service inflation in the United States has the strongest overall driver of inflation, while the euro zone is facing higher pressure on transportation service price increases, and the price increase of transportation services is also related to rising energy prices. This difference may indicate that compared with the United States, the internal demand in the euro zone is weaker, and the inflationary pressure driven by demand is not great.</p><p><b>Considering that this round of accelerated tightening by the central banks of the United States and Europe is affected by inflation, compared with the United States, inflation in the euro zone mainly comes from external supply shocks, and internal demand is not overheated. Therefore, after the monetary policy is tightened, domestic demand in the United States may still be able to \"carry\" for a period of time, while internal demand in the euro zone may be more affected by monetary tightening, and it is more likely to fall into the risk of slowing economic growth.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Four major differences between European and American high inflation engines</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFour major differences between European and American high inflation engines\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-11 23:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Main views</b></p><p><b>Since the second half of 2021, Europe and the United States have continued to face high inflationary pressures, and the CPI has risen rapidly year-on-year. Affected by the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine in February this year, the CPI in Europe and the United States hit a record high year-on-year. Under the pressure of continued high inflation, both European and American central banks turned hawkish. However, there are obvious differences in the sources of inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States. Inflation in the United States is \"blooming at multiple points\", but the euro zone is \"energy inflation\", that is, the pressure facing inflation in the United States is the general increase in prices of various goods and services; The vast majority of inflation in the euro zone comes from energy. Considering that energy price increases are mainly affected by supply factors, it shows that inflationary pressures in the euro zone come more from external supply shocks than from strong demand caused by rapid economic recovery. The general price increase in the United States shows that its inflationary pressures are limited by supply-side bottlenecks (such as rising energy prices) and driven by strong internal demand for durable goods and services. Therefore, in comparison, the \"resistance\" of internal demand in the United States to rate hike is stronger than that of the euro zone, and the euro zone may face greater risk of economic recession.</b></p><p><b>1. What are the similarities and differences between HICP and CPI?</b></p><p><b>In terms of compilation method,</b>The U.S. CPI only considers urban consumers; Secondly, in terms of weight adjustment, the weights of goods and services in the HICP basket of the euro zone are adjusted once a year, while the weights of goods and services in the CPI basket of the United States are adjusted every two years.</p><p><b>In terms of the weight of the consumption basket,</b>The weight of services in inflation indicators in Europe and the United States is higher than that of commodities, showing that the economic characteristics of Europe and the United States are dominated by service consumption, and the weight of services in the United States is significantly higher than that in the euro zone, about 18.3 percentage points higher. Among commodity weights, the gap between European and American food weights is the largest. The HICP food weight in the euro zone is 8.8 percentage points higher than that in the United States, followed by non-energy industrial products. Europe is 5.6 percentage points higher than that in the United States, and the energy weight in Europe is 3.9 percentage points higher than that in the United States.</p><p><b>2. How to compare inflation sources in Europe and the United States?</b></p><p><b>Due to the differences in the classification of inflation indicators in Europe and the United States, in order to facilitate comparison, we split them according to the idea of core and non-core inflation.</b>Eurostat divides the HICP of the euro zone into four major items-food, energy, non-energy industrial products and services, which can be matched with food, energy, commodities (excluding food and energy) and services (excluding energy) in the US CPI classification. Therefore, we first make a preliminary comparison of the inflation structure of the United States and Europe according to the four categories of food, energy, non-energy industrial products and services.</p><p><b>3. Four major differences in inflation \"engines\" in Europe and the United States</b></p><p><b>One of the differences: rising energy prices play an almost decisive role in high inflation in Europe, and the United States \"blossoms more\".</b>For the euro area, energy drove 3.2% year-on-year in February, accounting for 53.5% of the HICP year-on-year; In addition to energy, food, non-energy industrial products, and services in the United States \"worked together\", contributing 14.1%, 31.5%, and 33% year-on-year in February, respectively, totaling 78.6%.</p><p><b>The second difference: food prices in the euro zone are rising faster.</b>Due to the higher proportion of food in the inflation structure of the euro zone, food prices in the euro zone have risen faster since the end of 2021.</p><p><b>The third difference: durable goods in the United States generally rose, while the price increase of other durable goods in the euro zone was not obvious except for automobile prices.</b></p><p><b>The fourth difference: services are the biggest driver of U.S. CPI year-on-year, with rent contribution \"outstanding\", while services in the euro zone have a smaller increase.</b></p><p><b>To sum up, the biggest difference in the sources of inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States is that the Eurozone mainly experiences inflation driven up by commodity prices, while the United States generally experiences price increases: ① It can be seen from differences one and two that,</b>Inflation in the euro zone is more obviously dominated by external supply shocks. The pressure of energy and food price increases mainly comes from the external supply side, while energy contributes more than 50% of the high inflation in the euro zone. Recently, food has also shown a higher price increase rate than that in the United States.<b>② The difference between three and four may indicate that,</b>The inflationary pressure brought about by stronger internal demand in the euro zone is not great. In terms of durable goods, durable goods in the United States show general upward pressure, while the euro zone is only driven by automobiles. In terms of services, service inflation in the United States has the strongest overall driver of inflation, while the euro zone is facing higher pressure on transportation service price increases, and the price increase of transportation services is also related to rising energy prices. This difference may indicate that compared with the United States, the internal demand in the euro zone is weaker, and the inflationary pressure driven by demand is not great.</p><p><b>Risk warning: U.S. inflation rises higher than expected</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p><h3>one</h3><h3>Europe and the United States: the same high inflation pressure, different sources of pressure</h3><b>Since the second half of 2021, Europe and the United States have continued to face high inflationary pressures, and the CPI has risen rapidly year-on-year.</b>Affected by the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine in February this year, the CPI in Europe and the United States hit a record high year-on-year, reaching highs of 5.9% and 7.9% respectively; The month-on-month average was +0.9%, especially the euro zone was greatly affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points in February compared with January.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/344210b70f6a8e7f8063ad61f98c749f\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Under the pressure of continued high inflation, European and American central banks have turned hawkish.</b>In the euro zone, the European Central Bank raised inflation expectations across the board at the March interest rate meeting and announced that it would end the bond purchase program (APP) at a faster speed, which once again exceeded expectations and turned hawkish compared with the February meeting. On March 17, President Christine Lagarde also stated in her speech that \"the inflation level in the euro zone is unlikely to return to the level before the epidemic. The European Central Bank has begun to adjust policies in order to further promote policy normalization when necessary conditions are met.\", indicating that under high inflationary pressure, the European Central Bank is being \"forced\" to change its attitude. In the United States, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March also made it clear that one or more interest rate meetings in the future may have a rate hike of 50bps, and a shrinking balance sheet may be launched as early as May.</p><p><b>However, there are obvious differences in the sources of inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States. Inflation in the United States is \"blooming more\", but the euro zone is \"energy inflation\"</b>That is, the pressure on inflation in the United States is the general increase in prices of various goods and services; The vast majority of inflation in the euro zone comes from energy. Considering that energy price increases are mainly affected by supply factors, it shows that inflationary pressures in the euro zone come more from external supply shocks than from strong demand caused by rapid economic recovery. The general price increase in the United States shows that its inflationary pressures are limited by supply-side bottlenecks (such as rising energy prices) and driven by strong internal demand for durable goods and services. Therefore, in comparison,<b>The \"resistance\" of internal demand in the United States to rate hike is stronger than that of the euro zone, and the euro zone may face greater risk of economic recession.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56c39847928266470c03e9819fe7d45d\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b767cc36d9c22ec7a31d451cb1b6220b\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(1) What are the similarities and differences between HICP and CPI?</b></p><p><b>Before comparing the sources of inflation in Europe and the United States, first compare the similarities and differences of inflation indicators in Europe and the United States.</b>This report selects US CPI and Eurozone HICP indicators to characterize their respective inflation levels. For details of the basic situation of CPI indicators in the United States, please refer to the report \"Shrinkage or Inflation-Search and Prospect of Long-term and Short-term Dual Frameworks of Inflation in the United States & Number Theory Economy Series 11\". This report mainly introduces the inflation indicator HICP in the euro zone.</p><p>The full name of HICP is TheHarmonised Index of Consumer Prices, translated as Harmonised CPI. It is a consumer price index compiled by EU member states according to unified standards. The purpose is to make the price indexes of each member state comparable and can be summed up to obtain the consumer price index of the euro zone.</p><p>The comparison shows that there are mainly the following differences between HICP in the euro zone and CPI in the United States:</p><p><b>1. In terms of preparation methods,</b>First of all, in sample selection, the euro zone HICP tries to include rural consumers in the sample, while the US CPI only considers urban consumers; Secondly, in terms of weight adjustment, the weights of goods and services in the HICP basket of the euro zone are adjusted once a year, while the weights of goods and services in the CPI basket of the United States are adjusted every two years.</p><p><b>2. Weight of consumption basket</b>According to the caliber of core and non-core inflation, the weight of services in the inflation indicators of Europe and the United States is higher than the weight of commodities, showing that the economic characteristics of Europe and the United States are dominated by service consumption, and the weight of services in the United States is significantly higher than that of the euro zone, about 18.3 percentage points higher; Among commodity weights, the gap between European and American food weights is the largest. The HICP food weight in the euro zone is 8.8 percentage points higher than that in the United States, followed by non-energy industrial products. Europe is 5.6 percentage points higher than that in the United States, and the energy weight in Europe is 3.9 percentage points higher than that in the United States.<b>Considering that due to the recent impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of commodities such as energy and grain have risen sharply, the relatively higher food and energy weight in the European HICP consumer basket means that the euro zone will face higher food and energy inflationary pressures.</b></p><p>According to the subdivision of the consumption basket, according to the types of goods and services consumed, the HICP of the euro zone is divided into 12 categories, while the CPI of the United States includes 8 categories (see Figure 6 for details). Among them: the residential weight in the US CPI is significantly higher than the residential weight in the European HICP, which is about 19.7 percentage points higher. This is also the main source of the huge gap in service weights in Europe and the United States. The main reason may be that the Eurozone HICP does not include the estimated rent of Owner-occupied Housing, while the US CPI includes the Owner-occupied Housing part, which is recorded as \"Owners' EquivalentRent of Residences\".<b>However, the food and beverage in the European HICP is much higher than the US CPI.</b>About 11.3 percentage points higher, corresponding to the fact that the weight of food categories in the European HICP is much higher than that in the US CPI.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10abae6b02802e2a49078b647aa7933c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1abf1b276517940750f8668383b952c\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(2) How to compare inflation sources in Europe and the United States?</b></p><p><b>Due to the differences in the classification of inflation indicators in Europe and the United States, in order to facilitate comparison, we split them according to the idea of core and non-core inflation.</b>Eurostat divides the HICP of the euro zone into four major items-food, energy, non-energy industrial products and services, which can be matched with food, energy, commodities (excluding food and energy) and services (excluding energy) in the US CPI classification. Therefore, we first make a preliminary comparison of the inflation structure of the United States and Europe according to the four categories of food, energy, non-energy industrial products and services.</p><p>In order to further refine the differences in inflation structures between the United States and Europe,<b>We further split non-energy industrial products into durable goods and non-durable goods.</b>These two sub-items are included in the classification of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, so they do not need to be adjusted; For the euro area, durable goods and semi-durable goods in the official classification are combined as \"durable goods\", and \"non-durable goods\" is not adjusted.<b>For durable goods, automobiles and other durable goods are further split.</b>The classification of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics includes the automobile sub-item, so it does not need to be adjusted; For the euro area, motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts in the official classification are aggregated as automobiles.</p><p><b>The services are further split into four items: transportation services, leisure and entertainment services, rent and others.</b>For the euro area, the first two items are the contents of the official Eurostat classification and do not need to be adjusted; The rent is equal to the actual rent + catering and accommodation services in hotels; The first three items are subtracted from other service items, including communication services, etc. For the United States, transportation services, leisure and entertainment services, and rent are all contents in the official classification of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and do not need to be adjusted; Others can also be obtained by squeezing backwards. See the table below for specific classification details. After unifying the inflation caliber of the United States and Europe, we can compare the inflation structure of the United States and Europe.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cc47ade54035315be60678571cf2b38\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(3) Four major differences between inflation \"engines\" in Europe and the United States</b></p><p><b>One of the differences: rising energy prices play an almost decisive role in high inflation in Europe, while the United States \"blooms more\".</b>For the euro zone, energy contributed 3.2% to the year-on-year growth rate of HICP in February, and its contribution rate reached 53.5%; For the United States, energy contributed 1.7% to the year-on-year CPI growth rate in February, and contributed 21.3%; In addition to energy, food, non-energy industrial products, and services \"worked together\", contributing 14.1%, 31.5%, and 33% to the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in February, respectively, totaling 78.6%, indicating that the high inflation in the United States is \"Multiple blossoms\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cdc2cbdff201692fddf827873b203c5\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The second difference: food prices in the euro zone are rising faster.</b>Since the end of 2021, food prices in the euro zone have risen faster. As of February this year, the year-on-year pull rates of food price increases on inflation in Europe and the United States were 1% and 1.1% respectively. However, from the perspective of changing trends, because commodities account for a higher proportion of inflation in the euro zone, food prices have brought greater upward pressure on inflation in the euro zone.</p><p><b>The third difference: the price of durable goods in the United States generally rises, while the price of other durable goods in the euro zone is not obvious except for the price increase of automobiles.</b>From the absolute level of pull rate, the price increase of durable goods in the United States in February boosted the CPI by 2.1% year-on-year, while it was only 0.4% in the euro zone. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the price increase of durable goods in the euro zone has continued to be much smaller than that in the United States. In terms of structure, for Europe and the United States, automobiles are the main driving force for the price increase of durable goods. In February, the year-on-year driving force of European and American automobiles was 1.7% and 0.42% respectively, and their contribution to the price increase of durable goods in Europe and the United States was 80% and 103% respectively. In addition to the price increase of automobiles in the United States, other durable goods also have upward pressure on prices, which may indicate that the internal demand in the United States is strong, resulting in general upward pressure on durable goods prices; In the euro zone, in addition to the increase in automobile prices caused by supply-side factors such as \"core shortage\", the prices of other durable goods are falling instead, which may imply that the internal demand in the euro zone is not strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583f5b9b134cdafe34123c218690e477\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/077db96d692e97d750ebdb8e494c25c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The fourth difference: services are the biggest driver of U.S. CPI year-on-year, with rent contribution \"outstanding\", while services in the euro zone have a smaller increase, with leisure and entertainment services contributing the most.</b>In February, the U.S. CPI service sub-item contributed 2.6% year-on-year to overall inflation, and contributed 33% year-on-year to CPI, the highest among the four major sub-items (food, energy, non-energy industrial products, and services), while the euro zone The contribution rate of service price increases is only 17%. From a structural point of view, in the United States, the price increase of services is mainly due to the increase of rent. In addition, the price increase of transportation services also contributed to a certain extent. In February, the year-on-year boost of rent and transportation services to overall inflation recorded 1.6% and 0.3% respectively. The contribution rates of service price increases are 60% and 13% respectively; In the euro zone, leisure and entertainment services are the main driving force for service price increases. In February, the year-on-year pull rate of CPI was 0.4%, and the contribution rate of service price increases was 42%. Rents remained almost unchanged, and transportation services also contributed to a certain extent. In February, the contribution rate of service price increases was 19%, which was larger than that of the United States. The price increase of transportation services is also mainly limited by supply-side factors. On the one hand, the price increase of energy pushes up costs; on the other hand, the epidemic has led to a shortage of transportation employees, pushing up wage costs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f0d6068eff414c3598852b9b181e09\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7479eede35f1ec5b02a41335d9ce8753\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>To sum up, through comparison, it can be found that the biggest difference in the sources of inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States is that the euro zone mainly has inflation pushed up by commodity prices, while the United States has generally rising prices. More specifically:</b></p><p><b>First, it can be seen from the differences one and two that inflation in the euro zone is more obviously dominated by external supply shocks.</b>The pressure on energy and food price increases mainly comes from the external supply side, and energy contributes more than 50% to the high inflation in the euro zone. Recently, food has also shown a higher price increase rate than the United States.</p><p><b>Second, the difference three and four may indicate that the inflationary pressure brought by stronger internal demand in the euro zone is not great.</b>In terms of durable goods, durable goods in the United States showed general upward pressure, while the euro zone was only driven by automobiles. In terms of services, service inflation in the United States has the strongest overall driver of inflation, while the euro zone is facing higher pressure on transportation service price increases, and the price increase of transportation services is also related to rising energy prices. This difference may indicate that compared with the United States, the internal demand in the euro zone is weaker, and the inflationary pressure driven by demand is not great.</p><p><b>Considering that this round of accelerated tightening by the central banks of the United States and Europe is affected by inflation, compared with the United States, inflation in the euro zone mainly comes from external supply shocks, and internal demand is not overheated. Therefore, after the monetary policy is tightened, domestic demand in the United States may still be able to \"carry\" for a period of time, while internal demand in the euro zone may be more affected by monetary tightening, and it is more likely to fall into the risk of slowing economic growth.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/520872\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fca69a364eb1ccaf6e9078f1721480","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/520872","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2226688741","content_text":"主要观点自2021下半年以来，欧美持续面临高通胀压力，CPI同比急速上升。今年2月受俄乌局势升级影响，欧美CPI同比再创历史新高，持续高通胀压力下，欧美央行均转鹰。但欧美通胀压力来源具有明显差异，美国通胀“多点开花”，但欧元区则是“能源通胀”，即美国通胀面临的压力是各类商品和服务价格普涨；而欧元区通胀绝大部分来自于能源。考虑到能源涨价主要受供给因素影响，说明欧元区通胀压力更多来自外部供给端的冲击，而非因经济快速复苏导致需求强劲。而美国的价格普涨则表明其通胀压力既有供应端瓶颈的限制（如能源涨价），又有居民耐用品、服务等内部需求强劲的推动。因此，相较而言，美国内部需求对加息的“抵抗力”要强于欧元区，欧元区可能面临更大的经济衰退风险。1、HICP与CPI有什么异同？在编制方式上，美国CPI只考虑城市消费者；其次，在权重调整上，欧元区HICP一篮子商品与服务的权重每年调整一次，而美国CPI篮子中各商品和服务的权重两年调整一次。在消费篮子的权重方面，欧美通胀指标中服务权重均高于商品权重，显示欧美以服务消费为主的经济特征，而且美国的服务权重明显高于欧元区，高出约18.3个百分点。在商品权重中，欧美食品权重差距最大，欧元区HICP食品权重比美高8.8个百分点，其次是非能源工业品，欧较美高5.6个百分点，欧能源权重则高于美3.9个百分点。2、如何对比欧美通胀来源？由于欧美通胀指标分类上的差异，为了方便对比，我们按照核心与非核心通胀的思路进行拆分。欧盟统计局将欧元区HICP拆分为四大项目——“食品”、“能源”、“非能源工业品”、“服务”，与美国CPI分类中的“食品”、“能源”、“商品（不含食品和能源类）”、“服务（不含能源类）”可一一匹配，因此我们首先根据“食品”、“能源”、“非能源工业品”、“服务”四大类的口径，对美欧通胀结构进行初步对比。3、欧美通胀“引擎”的四大差异区别之一：能源涨价对欧高通胀几乎起决定性作用，美国“多点开花”。对于欧元区，2月份能源同比拉动3.2%，占HICP同比的53.5%；而美国除能源外，食品、非能源工业品、服务“共同发力”，2月对同比贡献分别为14.1%、31.5%、33%，合计达78.6%。区别之二：欧元区食品涨价更快。由于欧元区通胀结构中食品占比更高，因此自2021年底以来欧元区食品涨价更快。区别之三：美国耐用品普涨，欧元区除汽车涨价外，其他耐用品涨价不明显。区别之四：服务是美国CPI同比的最大拉动项，其中房租贡献“一枝独秀”，而欧元区服务涨幅较小。综上，欧美通胀压力来源最大差异在于：欧元区主要是大宗商品价格推升型通胀，而美国则是价格普涨：①从区别一和二可以看出，欧元区通胀受外部供给冲击主导特征更为明显，能源、食品涨价压力主要来自外部供给端，而欧元区高通胀中能源贡献超50%，近期食品也表现出高于美国的涨价速度。②区别三和四可能表明，欧元区由于内部需求走强带来的通胀压力并不大，耐用品方面，美国耐用品呈现普涨压力，而欧元区则仅由汽车推动。在服务方面，美国服务通胀对通胀整体拉动最强，而欧元区则更多面临更高的运输服务涨价压力，而运输服务的涨价也与能源价格上涨有关。这一区别可能表明相比于美国，欧元区内部需求偏弱，由需求推动的通胀压力并不大。风险提示：美国通胀超预期走高正文一欧美：一样的通胀高压，不一样的压力来源自2021下半年以来，欧美持续面临高通胀压力，CPI同比急速上升。今年2月受俄乌局势升级影响，欧美CPI同比再创历史新高，分别达到5.9%、7.9%的高位；环比均+0.9%，尤其是欧元区受俄乌冲突影响较大，2月环比较1月增长了0.5个百分点。持续高通胀压力下，欧美央行均转鹰。欧元区方面，3月议息会议上欧央行全面上调通胀预期，并宣布将以更快速度结束购债计划（APP），相较2月会议再度超预期转鹰。3月17日，行长拉加德在讲话中也表示“欧元区通胀水平已经不太可能回到疫情之前的水平，欧央行已经开始调整政策，以便在满足必要条件时，进一步推进政策正常化”，表明在高通胀压力下，欧央行正“被迫”转变态度。美国方面，3月美联储议息会议纪要也明确未来1次或多次议息会议或将加息50bps，最早5月或将启动缩表。但欧美通胀压力来源具有明显差异，美国通胀“多点开花”，但欧元区则是“能源通胀”，即美国通胀面临的压力是各类商品和服务价格普涨；而欧元区通胀绝大部分来自于能源。考虑到能源涨价主要受供给因素影响，说明欧元区通胀压力更多来自外部供给端的冲击，而非因经济快速复苏导致需求强劲。而美国的价格普涨则表明其通胀压力既有供应端瓶颈的限制（如能源涨价），又有居民耐用品、服务等内部需求强劲的推动。因此，相较而言，美国内部需求对加息的“抵抗力”要强于欧元区，欧元区可能面临更大的经济衰退风险。（一）HICP与CPI有什么异同？在展开欧美通胀来源对比之前，首先对比欧美通胀指标的异同。本报告选取美国CPI和欧元区HICP指标表征各自通胀水平。关于美国CPI指标的基本情况详见报告《缩or胀——美国通胀长短期双框架的找寻与展望&数论经济系列十一》，本报告主要介绍欧元区通胀指标HICP。HICP全称为TheHarmonised Index of Consumer Prices，译为调和CPI，是欧盟各成员国按照统一标准编制的消费物价指数，目的是使各成员国的物价指数具备可比性，可以进行加总得到欧元区的消费物价指数。对比发现，欧元区HICP与美国CPI主要存在以下几点差别：1、编制方法方面，首先，在样本选取上，欧元区HICP试图将农村消费者纳入样本，而美国CPI只考虑城市消费者；其次，在权重调整上，欧元区HICP一篮子商品与服务的权重每年调整一次，而美国CPI篮子中各商品和服务的权重两年调整一次。2、消费篮子的权重方面，根据核心与非核心通胀的口径来看，欧美通胀指标中服务权重均高于商品权重，显示欧美以服务消费为主的经济特征，而且美国的服务权重明显高于欧元区，高出约18.3个百分点；在商品权重中，欧美食品权重差距最大，欧元区HICP食品权重比美高8.8个百分点，其次是非能源工业品，欧较美高5.6个百分点，欧能源权重则高于美3.9个百分点。考虑到近期受俄乌冲突影响，能源、粮食等大宗商品大幅涨价，欧HICP消费者篮子中相对更高的食品和能源权重则意味着欧元区会面临更高的食品和能源通胀压力。根据消费篮子的细分种类看，按照消费的商品和服务种类分，欧元区HICP分为12大类，美国CPI则囊括8大类（详见图表6）。其中：美国CPI中住宅权重明显高于欧HICP的住宅权重，约高19.7个百分点，这也是欧美服务权重巨大差距的主要来源，主要原因可能在于欧元区HICP不包括自有住房（Owner-occupied Housing）的估计租金，而美国CPI包含自有住房部分，记为“业主等价租金”（Owners’ EquivalentRent of Residences）。但欧HICP中的食品和饮料则远高于美CPI，约高11.3个百分点，对应着欧HICP中食品大类权重远高于美CPI。（二）如何对比欧美通胀来源？由于欧美通胀指标分类上的差异，为了方便对比，我们按照核心与非核心通胀的思路进行拆分。欧盟统计局将欧元区HICP拆分为四大项目——“食品”、“能源”、“非能源工业品”、“服务”，与美国CPI分类中的“食品”、“能源”、“商品（不含食品和能源类）”、“服务（不含能源类）”可一一匹配，因此我们首先根据“食品”、“能源”、“非能源工业品”、“服务”四大类的口径，对美欧通胀结构进行初步对比。为进一步细化美欧通胀结构上的差异，我们将非能源工业品进一步拆分为耐用品与非耐用品，美国劳工统计局分类中包括这两个分项，因此不需调整；对于欧元区，将官方分类中的耐用品与半耐用品合计为“耐用品”，“非耐用品”不作调整。对于耐用品，又进一步拆分出汽车和其他耐用品，美国劳工统计局分类中包括汽车分项，因此不需调整；对于欧元区，将官方分类中的机动车和机动车零部件合计为汽车。将服务进一步拆分为交通运输服务、休闲娱乐服务、房租与其他四项，对于欧元区，前两项为欧盟统计局官方分类中的内容，无需调整；房租等于实际房租+餐饮和酒店中的住宿服务分项；其他为服务项倒减前三项，内容上包括通信服务等。对于美国，交通运输服务、休闲娱乐服务、房租均为劳工统计局官方分类中的内容，无需调整；其他也依靠倒挤得出。具体分类细节详见下表，在对美欧通胀口径进行统一后，我们可对美欧通胀结构进行对比。（三）欧美通胀“引擎”的四大差异区别之一：能源涨价对欧高通胀几乎起决定性作用，而美国“多点开花”。对于欧元区，2月份能源对HICP同比增速的拉动率为3.2%，贡献率达到53.5%；对于美国，2月份能源对CPI同比增速的拉动率为1.7%，贡献率为21.3%；除能源外，食品、非能源工业品、服务“共同发力”，2月对CPI同比增速的贡献分别为14.1%、31.5%、33%，合计达78.6%，表明美国的高通胀是“多点开花”。区别之二：欧元区食品涨价更快。自2021年末以来欧元区食品涨价更快，截至今年2月，食品价格上涨对欧、美通胀同比的拉动率分别为1%、1.1%，食品涨价对欧美通胀同比拉动率差距不大，但从变化趋势来看，由于欧元区通胀中商品占比更高，食品价格带来欧元区的通胀上行压力更大。区别之三：美国耐用品普遍涨价，欧元区除汽车涨价拉动外，其他耐用品涨价不明显。从拉动率绝对水平上看，2月美国耐用品涨价对CPI同比拉动录得2.1%，而欧元区仅有0.4%，疫情发生以来欧元区耐用品涨价幅度持续远小于美国。结构来看，对欧美来说汽车均是耐用品涨价主要拉动项，2月欧美汽车同比拉动分别为1.7%、0.42%，对欧美耐用品涨价贡献分别为80%、103%。而美国除了汽车涨价外，其他耐用品亦有价格上涨压力，可能表明美国内部需求较强劲，导致耐用品价格产生普涨压力；而在欧元区，除了因“缺芯”等供给端因素限制导致的汽车涨价外，其他耐用品价格反而在回落，可能暗示欧元区内部需求不强。区别之四：服务是美国CPI同比的最大拉动项，其中房租贡献“一枝独秀”，而欧元区服务涨幅较小，休闲娱乐服务贡献最大。2月，美国CPI服务分项对整体通胀的同比拉动率为2.6%，对CPI同比贡献率为33%，为四大分项（食品、能源、非能源工业品、服务）中最高，而欧元区服务涨价贡献率仅为17%。结构来看，在美国，服务涨价主要是因为房租上涨，此外运输服务涨价亦有一定贡献，2月，房租、运输服务对整体通胀的同比拉动分别录得1.6%、0.3%，对服务涨价贡献率分别为60%、13%；而在欧元区，休闲娱乐服务才是服务涨价的主要推动力，2月对CPI同比拉动率为0.4%，对服务涨价贡献率42%，房租几乎没有变化，交通运输服务也有一定贡献，2月对服务涨价贡献率19%，比美国大。而运输服务涨价也主要受供给端因素限制，一方面能源涨价推升成本，另一方面疫情导致运输就业人员不足推升薪资成本。综上，通过对比可以发现，欧美通胀压力来源最大差异在于：欧元区主要是大宗商品价格推升型通胀，而美国则是价格普涨，更具体地说：其一，从区别一和二可以看出，欧元区通胀受外部供给冲击主导特征更为明显，能源、食品涨价压力主要来自外部供给端，而欧元区高通胀中能源贡献超50%，近期食品也表现出高于美国的涨价速度。其二，区别三和四可能表明，欧元区由于内部需求走强带来的通胀压力并不大，耐用品方面，美国耐用品呈现普涨压力，而欧元区则仅由汽车推动。在服务方面，美国服务通胀对通胀整体拉动最强，而欧元区则更多面临更高的运输服务涨价压力，而运输服务的涨价也与能源价格上涨有关。这一区别可能表明相比于美国，欧元区内部需求偏弱，由需求推动的通胀压力并不大。考虑到美欧央行此轮加速紧缩均是受到通胀影响，但相比于美国，欧元区的通胀主要来自外部供给冲击，内部需求并未过热，因此货币政策紧缩后，美国国内需求或仍能“扛”一段时间，而欧元区内部需求或受货币紧缩冲击更大，更易陷入经济增长放缓的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096782019,"gmtCreate":1644461751143,"gmtModify":1676533929902,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096782019","repostId":"1120878270","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120878270","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1644459301,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120878270?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-10 10:15","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Lepu Biotech will launch its IPO today, and the admission fee is HK $7454.38","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120878270","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"每股发售价介于6.87港元-7.38港元，每手1000股。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>News on February 10,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02157\">Lepu Bio-B</a>Announcement: The IPO will be held from February 10 to February 15, 2022. The company plans to issue approximately 127 million shares, of which the Hong Kong public offering accounts for 10%, the international offering accounts for 90%, and there is an over-allotment option of 15%.<b>The offer price per share is HK $6.87-HK $7.38, with 1,000 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $7454.38</b>Dealings in the Shares on the Stock Exchange are expected to commence on 23 February 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e1a27c96f3078f3c0b6f92bab54cb8\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Subscription ladder</b></p><p>There are 1,000 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $7,454.38.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 70,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK $521806.55.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64702a21d77baa3223cdcc943a37271a\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>COMPANY PROFILE</b></p><p>Lepu Bio was established in 2018 and has completed 3 rounds of financing in the past 4 years, attracting many professional investment funds in the pharmaceutical and medical industry, including Vivo Capital, Suzhou Danqing, SDIC Chuanghe, Ping An Capital, Sunshine Life Insurance, Ronghui Sunshine, Guoxin Central Enterprises, Shanghai Biomedical Fund, etc.</p><p><b>Differentiated layout of PD-1 pan-cancer immunotherapy</b></p><p>Lepu Biotech focuses on the combined drug mechanism in the field of tumor treatment, which is<b>The only innovative drug company in China that has both PD-1 monoclonal antibodies in the NDA production stage and multiple clinical phase II ADC pipelines.</b>There are 8 clinical-stage drug candidates in its product pipeline, mainly composed of targeted therapies (ADC antibody conjugate drugs) and immunotherapy drugs. The latter includes two immune checkpoint drugs (PD-1/L1) and an oncolytic virus drug. Three drug candidates have entered registrational trials and two trials are underway in the United States. Monoclonal antibody cornerstone products, ADC, oncolytic virus, etc. can form the advantage of combined drug use, and the company will also expand the beneficiary patient population and improve the quality of life of patients.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893211e958a9d22abefebb7472519142\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Prospectus</p><p>PD-1 (L1) competition in China has been extremely fierce, so many companies have begun to target more cutting-edge therapeutic markets. PD-1 Putelimab Injection (HX008), one of the core products of Lepu Bio, is the second indication The marketing application for MSI-H/dMMR solid tumors will be included in priority review by CDE in November 2021.</p><p>MSI-H/dMMR is the first pan-tumor tumor marker, and the discovery of MSI-H/dMMR tumor marker has promoted the progress of tumor treatment regardless of cancer type and type. As an emerging immunotherapy biomarker, MSI-H/dMMR has a high detection rate in digestive cancers such as gastric cancer and colorectal cancer, so it has a wide application prospect. But the competition in the MSI-H/dMMR solid tumor treatment market has just begun. At present, the global<b>Only three anti-PD-(L) 1 monoclonal antibodies, namely, drug K (pembrolizumab, approved by FDA and NMPA), drug O (nivolumab, approved by FDA) and envolimab (approved by NMPA), have been approved for the treatment of MSI-H/dMMR solid tumors.</b></p><p>Taking drug K as an example, in a global multi-center large-scale phase III clinical trial of pembrolizumab for the first-line treatment of bowel cancer, the 3-year survival rate, PFS, ORR, CRR, TRAE and other performances of patients with advanced bowel cancer using drug K were significantly better than those of patients with advanced bowel cancer using conventional chemotherapy. The NDA application for HX008 submitted by Lepu Biotech has been accepted. HX008 is expected to become Lepu Biotech's first marketed product and enable patients to benefit from new therapies earlier.</p><p><b>It is also worth mentioning that PD-1 is the closest to commercialization in the overall strategic deployment of Lepu Biotech and plays an important role. The company will use PD-1 products to open up sales channels. It plans to start marketing work in medical institutions and pharmacy systems after HX008 is approved for the treatment of MSI-H/dMMR solid tumors and melanoma in China, laying the foundation for the smooth launch of ADC products and subsequent pipelines</b>。</p><p><b>Multiple ADCs are expected to achieve world firsts</b></p><p>ADC drugs are the core of Lepu Biological's targeted therapy. The company has a variety of targeted ADC drug pipelines, among which the core pipeline HER2 targeted ADC drug MRG002 has the fastest commercialization progress. Lepu Bio has a relatively complete layout in the field of breast cancer treatment, especially one of its core products, MRG002, is a HER2-targeted ADC drug. The HER2-positive rate of breast cancer is about 25.4%. The second-line progression rate of breast cancer in China is 94.3%.</p><p>Breast cancer is now the most common cancer in the world, with the number of new breast cancer cases in China reaching 331,600 in 2020. According to Frost & Sullivan, the size of China's breast cancer market will be RMB 50.7 billion in 2020, and it is expected to reach RMB 81.8 billion and RMB 124.6 billion by 2025 and 2030, respectively.</p><p>MRG002 has achieved a breakthrough in phase II clinical studies. This phase II clinical trial was led by Professor Jiang Zefei of the People's Liberation Army General Hospital. Jiang Zefei made a detailed report in the special session on innovative drug clinical research data at the CSCO annual meeting in September 2021. Jiang Zefei said that the innovative efficacy of MRG002 comes from its innovative molecular design, because ADC drug design has unique difficulties in cytotoxicity and linkers.</p><p>The global breast cancer treatment market has never been short of blockbuster varieties. According to Nature Reviews Drug Discovery, in 2026, the global sales of currently listed ADCs will exceed US $16.4 billion.</p><p>Another core pipeline, MRG003, is an EGFR-targeted ADC drug candidate. According to Frost & Sullivan, MRG003 is currently<b>Domestic first and leading international clinical progress</b>Globally, except for Japan's Rakuten Medical's product Akalux (suitable for unresectable locally recurrent head and neck cancer), which has been approved by PMDA, no other ADC targeting EGFR has been approved. Lepu Biologics is conducting a number of phase II clinical trials for MRG003 in China.</p><p>Similarly, other ADC pipelines also have the potential to be the first of their kind. For example, CMG901 jointly developed by Lepu Bio and Connoya (2162. HK) is the world's first CLDN18.2 targeted ADC approved by IND; The company's self-developed MRG001 is aimed at hematological tumors. There are currently no approved CD20-targeted ADC products in the world. The only CD20-targeted ADCs that have entered the clinical stage in China are the company's MRG001 and Trace's TRS005.</p><p><b>ADC drug technology is complex, and many pipelines will face the challenge of early research and development failure; In addition, ADC drugs can be finally approved for marketing, and the company's ADC commercial production capacity and production experience are also crucial.</b>Dr. Hu Chaohong, co-general manager of Lepu Biotech, has worked in Seagen (SGEN.US) for many years, and the team has rich experience in ADC drug research and development. Lepu Bio also has an ADC platform with clinically proven coupling and CMC technologies, as well as a development and analysis platform for advanced processes as support for commercial production.</p><p><b>Leading the world in clinical progress of oncolytic virus</b></p><p>Lepu Biotech introduced the innovative pipeline CG0070 from CG Oncology and obtained the rights to develop, manufacture and commercialize the product in China. The company has submitted an IND application to the State Food and Drug Administration for intravesical administration of CG0070 for the treatment of bladder cancer (NMIBC, that is, non-muscular invasive bladder cancer that does not respond to Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG)) and other solid tumors.<b>The application for NMIBC has received clinical approval from CDE,</b>Carry out clinical trials for this indication.</p><p>According to Frost & Sullivan,<b>CG0070 is the first and only oncolytic adenovirus in clinical development for bladder cancer</b>。 Oncolytic viruses are a kind of viruses that can selectively lyse cancer cells. On the one hand, they can infect tumor cells and cause cell lysis; On the other hand, the molecules they release during the lysis process can also induce congenital and adaptive immune responses, attracting more immune cells to continue to kill residual tumor cells. Therefore, oncolytic viruses have good clinical prospects as innovative therapies.</p><p>The main indication of oncolytic virus is bladder cancer, which is the most common malignant tumor of the urinary system and has the highest incidence of genitourinary tract tumors in China.<b>With a five-year survival rate of 72.9% in China, there is a significant market opportunity for bladder cancer treatment.</b>In addition, oncolytic viruses can also be extended to other indications, especially in combination use,<b>The combination of oncolytic viruses and anti-PD-1/anti-PD-L1 monoclonal antibodies has emerged as an emerging treatment for advanced malignancies.</b></p><p>CG0070 demonstrated good safety and efficacy in the Phase II clinical study conducted by CG Oncology in the United States for the treatment of NMIBC. On November 13, 2021, CG Oncology disclosed the very eye-catching Phase II clinical trial data of CG0070 combined with K drug.<b>The results of the trial showed that among the 9 NMIBC patients whose efficacy could be evaluated, all patients achieved complete remission (CR) at 3 months. In addition, the CR rate of patients who reached the 6-month evaluation node and the 9-month evaluation node also maintained 100%.</b></p><p>Many companies around the world have deployed a total of more than 180 oncolytic virus pipelines, but currently CG Oncology and aglatimagene besadenovec of Candel Therapeutics (CADL.US) (the treatment of prostate cancer has entered clinical phase III) are among the pipelines with faster progress.</p><p>In addition to CG0070, Lepu Bio also participated in Wuhan Binhui Bio, which independently developed recombinant human GM-CSF oncolytic herpes simplex virus type II (OH2) injection. According to the prospectus of Lepu Bio, the combination therapy of HX008 combined with OH2 for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma has been approved for IND and the corresponding phase I clinical trial has begun.</p><p>Lepu Bio has established multiple tumor treatment pipelines for multiple indications. As product commercialization approaches, the company is also advancing research on the combination of monoclonal antibodies and other core pipelines in order to provide patients with innovative and even disruptive treatment options. In addition to the above-mentioned HX008 combined with OH2, Lepu Biotech also plans to conduct research and development on ADC combined with HX008 for the treatment of advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). MRG003 combined with HX008 for HNSCC and MRG002 combined with HX008 for gastric cancer have both received IND approval from the NMPA.</p><p>From a global perspective, in clinical trials of monoclonal antibody products such as K drug combined with ADC and oncolytic virus, combination therapy generally shows a higher complete remission rate than single drug, and the survival rate of patients participating in combination chemotherapy trials is also improving.</p><p>While advancing the development of candidate products, the company has planned and is implementing the production and commercialization layout. In 2019, Lepu Biotech built a GMP standard 2,000 L antibody production line in Beijing and put it into production. It is currently building a 200L oncolytic virus drug production line in Beijing. The company is also currently building a biomedical production center in Shanghai, including a production line with a preliminary design capacity of 12,000 L and the construction of supporting laboratories and factories. Relying on the company's team and technology platform, the construction of production and commercialization capabilities will also provide great support for the company's global layout.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lepu Biotech will launch its IPO today, and the admission fee is HK $7454.38</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLepu Biotech will launch its IPO today, and the admission fee is HK $7454.38\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-10 10:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>News on February 10,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02157\">Lepu Bio-B</a>Announcement: The IPO will be held from February 10 to February 15, 2022. The company plans to issue approximately 127 million shares, of which the Hong Kong public offering accounts for 10%, the international offering accounts for 90%, and there is an over-allotment option of 15%.<b>The offer price per share is HK $6.87-HK $7.38, with 1,000 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $7454.38</b>Dealings in the Shares on the Stock Exchange are expected to commence on 23 February 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e1a27c96f3078f3c0b6f92bab54cb8\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Subscription ladder</b></p><p>There are 1,000 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $7,454.38.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 70,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK $521806.55.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64702a21d77baa3223cdcc943a37271a\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>COMPANY PROFILE</b></p><p>Lepu Bio was established in 2018 and has completed 3 rounds of financing in the past 4 years, attracting many professional investment funds in the pharmaceutical and medical industry, including Vivo Capital, Suzhou Danqing, SDIC Chuanghe, Ping An Capital, Sunshine Life Insurance, Ronghui Sunshine, Guoxin Central Enterprises, Shanghai Biomedical Fund, etc.</p><p><b>Differentiated layout of PD-1 pan-cancer immunotherapy</b></p><p>Lepu Biotech focuses on the combined drug mechanism in the field of tumor treatment, which is<b>The only innovative drug company in China that has both PD-1 monoclonal antibodies in the NDA production stage and multiple clinical phase II ADC pipelines.</b>There are 8 clinical-stage drug candidates in its product pipeline, mainly composed of targeted therapies (ADC antibody conjugate drugs) and immunotherapy drugs. The latter includes two immune checkpoint drugs (PD-1/L1) and an oncolytic virus drug. Three drug candidates have entered registrational trials and two trials are underway in the United States. Monoclonal antibody cornerstone products, ADC, oncolytic virus, etc. can form the advantage of combined drug use, and the company will also expand the beneficiary patient population and improve the quality of life of patients.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893211e958a9d22abefebb7472519142\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Prospectus</p><p>PD-1 (L1) competition in China has been extremely fierce, so many companies have begun to target more cutting-edge therapeutic markets. PD-1 Putelimab Injection (HX008), one of the core products of Lepu Bio, is the second indication The marketing application for MSI-H/dMMR solid tumors will be included in priority review by CDE in November 2021.</p><p>MSI-H/dMMR is the first pan-tumor tumor marker, and the discovery of MSI-H/dMMR tumor marker has promoted the progress of tumor treatment regardless of cancer type and type. As an emerging immunotherapy biomarker, MSI-H/dMMR has a high detection rate in digestive cancers such as gastric cancer and colorectal cancer, so it has a wide application prospect. But the competition in the MSI-H/dMMR solid tumor treatment market has just begun. At present, the global<b>Only three anti-PD-(L) 1 monoclonal antibodies, namely, drug K (pembrolizumab, approved by FDA and NMPA), drug O (nivolumab, approved by FDA) and envolimab (approved by NMPA), have been approved for the treatment of MSI-H/dMMR solid tumors.</b></p><p>Taking drug K as an example, in a global multi-center large-scale phase III clinical trial of pembrolizumab for the first-line treatment of bowel cancer, the 3-year survival rate, PFS, ORR, CRR, TRAE and other performances of patients with advanced bowel cancer using drug K were significantly better than those of patients with advanced bowel cancer using conventional chemotherapy. The NDA application for HX008 submitted by Lepu Biotech has been accepted. HX008 is expected to become Lepu Biotech's first marketed product and enable patients to benefit from new therapies earlier.</p><p><b>It is also worth mentioning that PD-1 is the closest to commercialization in the overall strategic deployment of Lepu Biotech and plays an important role. The company will use PD-1 products to open up sales channels. It plans to start marketing work in medical institutions and pharmacy systems after HX008 is approved for the treatment of MSI-H/dMMR solid tumors and melanoma in China, laying the foundation for the smooth launch of ADC products and subsequent pipelines</b>。</p><p><b>Multiple ADCs are expected to achieve world firsts</b></p><p>ADC drugs are the core of Lepu Biological's targeted therapy. The company has a variety of targeted ADC drug pipelines, among which the core pipeline HER2 targeted ADC drug MRG002 has the fastest commercialization progress. Lepu Bio has a relatively complete layout in the field of breast cancer treatment, especially one of its core products, MRG002, is a HER2-targeted ADC drug. The HER2-positive rate of breast cancer is about 25.4%. The second-line progression rate of breast cancer in China is 94.3%.</p><p>Breast cancer is now the most common cancer in the world, with the number of new breast cancer cases in China reaching 331,600 in 2020. According to Frost & Sullivan, the size of China's breast cancer market will be RMB 50.7 billion in 2020, and it is expected to reach RMB 81.8 billion and RMB 124.6 billion by 2025 and 2030, respectively.</p><p>MRG002 has achieved a breakthrough in phase II clinical studies. This phase II clinical trial was led by Professor Jiang Zefei of the People's Liberation Army General Hospital. Jiang Zefei made a detailed report in the special session on innovative drug clinical research data at the CSCO annual meeting in September 2021. Jiang Zefei said that the innovative efficacy of MRG002 comes from its innovative molecular design, because ADC drug design has unique difficulties in cytotoxicity and linkers.</p><p>The global breast cancer treatment market has never been short of blockbuster varieties. According to Nature Reviews Drug Discovery, in 2026, the global sales of currently listed ADCs will exceed US $16.4 billion.</p><p>Another core pipeline, MRG003, is an EGFR-targeted ADC drug candidate. According to Frost & Sullivan, MRG003 is currently<b>Domestic first and leading international clinical progress</b>Globally, except for Japan's Rakuten Medical's product Akalux (suitable for unresectable locally recurrent head and neck cancer), which has been approved by PMDA, no other ADC targeting EGFR has been approved. Lepu Biologics is conducting a number of phase II clinical trials for MRG003 in China.</p><p>Similarly, other ADC pipelines also have the potential to be the first of their kind. For example, CMG901 jointly developed by Lepu Bio and Connoya (2162. HK) is the world's first CLDN18.2 targeted ADC approved by IND; The company's self-developed MRG001 is aimed at hematological tumors. There are currently no approved CD20-targeted ADC products in the world. The only CD20-targeted ADCs that have entered the clinical stage in China are the company's MRG001 and Trace's TRS005.</p><p><b>ADC drug technology is complex, and many pipelines will face the challenge of early research and development failure; In addition, ADC drugs can be finally approved for marketing, and the company's ADC commercial production capacity and production experience are also crucial.</b>Dr. Hu Chaohong, co-general manager of Lepu Biotech, has worked in Seagen (SGEN.US) for many years, and the team has rich experience in ADC drug research and development. Lepu Bio also has an ADC platform with clinically proven coupling and CMC technologies, as well as a development and analysis platform for advanced processes as support for commercial production.</p><p><b>Leading the world in clinical progress of oncolytic virus</b></p><p>Lepu Biotech introduced the innovative pipeline CG0070 from CG Oncology and obtained the rights to develop, manufacture and commercialize the product in China. The company has submitted an IND application to the State Food and Drug Administration for intravesical administration of CG0070 for the treatment of bladder cancer (NMIBC, that is, non-muscular invasive bladder cancer that does not respond to Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG)) and other solid tumors.<b>The application for NMIBC has received clinical approval from CDE,</b>Carry out clinical trials for this indication.</p><p>According to Frost & Sullivan,<b>CG0070 is the first and only oncolytic adenovirus in clinical development for bladder cancer</b>。 Oncolytic viruses are a kind of viruses that can selectively lyse cancer cells. On the one hand, they can infect tumor cells and cause cell lysis; On the other hand, the molecules they release during the lysis process can also induce congenital and adaptive immune responses, attracting more immune cells to continue to kill residual tumor cells. Therefore, oncolytic viruses have good clinical prospects as innovative therapies.</p><p>The main indication of oncolytic virus is bladder cancer, which is the most common malignant tumor of the urinary system and has the highest incidence of genitourinary tract tumors in China.<b>With a five-year survival rate of 72.9% in China, there is a significant market opportunity for bladder cancer treatment.</b>In addition, oncolytic viruses can also be extended to other indications, especially in combination use,<b>The combination of oncolytic viruses and anti-PD-1/anti-PD-L1 monoclonal antibodies has emerged as an emerging treatment for advanced malignancies.</b></p><p>CG0070 demonstrated good safety and efficacy in the Phase II clinical study conducted by CG Oncology in the United States for the treatment of NMIBC. On November 13, 2021, CG Oncology disclosed the very eye-catching Phase II clinical trial data of CG0070 combined with K drug.<b>The results of the trial showed that among the 9 NMIBC patients whose efficacy could be evaluated, all patients achieved complete remission (CR) at 3 months. In addition, the CR rate of patients who reached the 6-month evaluation node and the 9-month evaluation node also maintained 100%.</b></p><p>Many companies around the world have deployed a total of more than 180 oncolytic virus pipelines, but currently CG Oncology and aglatimagene besadenovec of Candel Therapeutics (CADL.US) (the treatment of prostate cancer has entered clinical phase III) are among the pipelines with faster progress.</p><p>In addition to CG0070, Lepu Bio also participated in Wuhan Binhui Bio, which independently developed recombinant human GM-CSF oncolytic herpes simplex virus type II (OH2) injection. According to the prospectus of Lepu Bio, the combination therapy of HX008 combined with OH2 for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma has been approved for IND and the corresponding phase I clinical trial has begun.</p><p>Lepu Bio has established multiple tumor treatment pipelines for multiple indications. As product commercialization approaches, the company is also advancing research on the combination of monoclonal antibodies and other core pipelines in order to provide patients with innovative and even disruptive treatment options. In addition to the above-mentioned HX008 combined with OH2, Lepu Biotech also plans to conduct research and development on ADC combined with HX008 for the treatment of advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). MRG003 combined with HX008 for HNSCC and MRG002 combined with HX008 for gastric cancer have both received IND approval from the NMPA.</p><p>From a global perspective, in clinical trials of monoclonal antibody products such as K drug combined with ADC and oncolytic virus, combination therapy generally shows a higher complete remission rate than single drug, and the survival rate of patients participating in combination chemotherapy trials is also improving.</p><p>While advancing the development of candidate products, the company has planned and is implementing the production and commercialization layout. In 2019, Lepu Biotech built a GMP standard 2,000 L antibody production line in Beijing and put it into production. It is currently building a 200L oncolytic virus drug production line in Beijing. The company is also currently building a biomedical production center in Shanghai, including a production line with a preliminary design capacity of 12,000 L and the construction of supporting laboratories and factories. Relying on the company's team and technology platform, the construction of production and commercialization capabilities will also provide great support for the company's global layout.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d9586192423abb2922de7db5c64252","relate_stocks":{"02157":"乐普生物-B"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120878270","content_text":"2月10日消息，乐普生物-B公告：于2022年2月10日-2月15日进行招股，公司拟发行约1.27亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附有15%的超额配股权。每股发售价为6.87港元-7.38港元，每手1000股，入场费7454.38港元，预期股份将于2022年2月23日在联交所开始买卖。申购阶梯每手1000股，入场费7454.38港元。乙组门槛为70000股，申购所需资金约521806.55港元。公司简介乐普生物成立于2018年，近4年一共完成了3轮融资，吸引了众多专业的医药医疗行业投资基金，包括维梧资本、苏州丹青、国投创合、平安资本、阳光人寿、融汇阳光、国新央企、上海生物医药基金等。差异化布局PD-1泛癌种免疫治疗乐普生物聚焦肿瘤治疗领域的联合用药机制，是国内唯一一家既有NDA报产阶段PD-1单抗，又拥有多个临床II期ADC管线的创新药企业。其产品管线中有8种临床阶段候选药物，主要由靶向疗法（ADC抗体偶联药物）和免疫治疗药物构成，后者包括两种免疫检查点药物（PD-1/L1）和一种溶瘤病毒药物。三项候选药物已进入注册性试验，两项试验正在美国进行。单抗类基石产品与ADC、溶瘤病毒等可形成联合用药优势，公司也将扩大受益患者群，提高患者的生存质量。来源：招股书PD-1（L1）在国内竞争已经异常激烈，因此不少企业都开始瞄准更前沿的治疗市场，乐普生物核心产品之一PD-1 普特利单抗注射液（HX008）第二个适应症MSI-H/dMMR 实体瘤的上市申请，2021年11月被CDE纳入优先评审。MSI-H/dMMR是第一个「泛瘤种」肿瘤标志物，MSI-H/dMMR肿瘤标志物的发现推动了「不分癌种，分型而治」的肿瘤治疗方式的进展。作为新兴的免疫治疗生物标志物，MSI-H/dMMR在胃癌、结直肠癌等消化系统癌症中的检出率较高，因此具有广泛的应用前景。但MSI-H/dMMR实体瘤治疗市场的竞争才刚开始。目前，全球仅获批了K药（帕博丽珠单抗，已于FDA、NMPA获批）、O药（纳武利尤单抗，已于FDA获批）及恩沃利单抗3款抗PD-(L)1单抗（已于NMPA获批）用于治疗MSI-H/dMMR实体瘤。以K药为例，在帕博利珠单抗针对肠癌一线治疗的全球多中心的大型III期临床试验中，使用K药的晚期肠癌患者的3年生存率、PFS、ORR、CRR、TRAE等表现都明显优于使用常规化疗的晚期肠癌患者。乐普生物提交的HX008的NDA申请已获受理，HX008有望成为乐普生物首个上市产品，并使患者较早从新疗法中获益。另外值得一提的是，PD-1在乐普生物整体战略部署中离商业化最近，具有重要地位。公司将借助PD-1产品来打通销售渠道，计划HX008国内获批用于治疗MSI-H/dMMR实体瘤及黑色素瘤后启动在医疗机构、药房体系的营销工作，为ADC产品及后续管线顺利上市奠定基础。多款ADC有望实现全球首创ADC药物是乐普生物靶向疗法的核心，公司拥有多种靶向ADC药物管线，其中核心管线HER2靶向ADC药物MRG002商业化进展最快。乐普生物在乳腺癌治疗领域有相对完善的布局，尤其是核心产品之一MRG002为HER2靶向ADC药物。乳腺癌的HER2阳性率约为25.4%。中国乳腺癌的二线进展率为94.3%。乳腺癌现成为全球最常见的癌种，中国2020年新增的乳腺癌病例数达到33.16万。据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，2020年中国乳腺癌市场的规模为人民币507亿元，预计至2025年及2030年将分别达到818亿元及1246亿元。MRG002在II期临床研究中已实现突破。此II期临床试验由解放军总医院江泽飞教授牵头，江泽飞在2021年9月的CSCO年会创新药物临床研究数据专场中作了详细汇报。江泽飞表示，MRG002的创新疗效来自于其创新的分子设计，因为ADC药物设计在细胞毒、连接子方面都有独特难点。全球的乳腺癌治疗市场从来不乏重磅品种。据Nature Reviews Drug Discovery预计，2026年，目前已上市ADC的全球销售额将超过164亿美元。另一项核心管线MRG003为一款EGFR靶向ADC候选药物。据弗若斯特沙利文，MRG003是目前国内首创和国际临床进度领先的靶向EGFR的ADC药物，全球范围内，除了日本Rakuten Medical的产品Akalux（适用于不能切除的局部复发性头颈癌）获PMDA批准外，还没有其他靶向EGFR的ADC获批。乐普生物正在就MRG003在中国进行多项II期临床试验。同样，ADC其他管线也具有同类首创的潜质。例如，乐普生物与康诺亚（2162.HK）合作开发的CMG901是全球首款获IND批准的CLDN18.2靶向ADC；公司自研的MRG001针对血液肿瘤，全球目前尚未有获批的CD20靶向ADC产品，国内进入临床阶段的CD20靶向ADC仅有公司的MRG001和特瑞思的TRS005。ADC药物技术复杂，很多管线会面临前期研发失败的挑战；此外，ADC药物能最终获批上市，企业的ADC商业化生产能力、生产经验也至关重要。乐普生物联席总经理胡朝红博士在Seagen（SGEN.US）工作多年，团队拥有丰富的ADC药物研发经验。乐普生物也具有经临床验证的偶联和CMC技术的ADC平台，以及先进工艺的开发分析平台作为商业化生产的支持。溶瘤病毒临床进展全球领先乐普生物从CG Oncology引进了创新型管线CG0070，获得了该产品在国内的开发、制造和商业化权利。公司已向国家药监局提交CG0070膀胱内给药治疗膀胱癌（NMIBC，即卡介苗（BCG）无应答的非肌层浸润性膀胱癌）及其他实体瘤的IND申请，针对NMIBC的申请已获CDE的临床批件，开展对该适应症的临床试验。据弗若斯特沙利文，CG0070是首个也是唯一一个处于临床开发阶段的治疗膀胱癌的溶瘤腺病毒。溶瘤病毒是一类能选择性裂解癌细胞的病毒，一方面，它们可以感染肿瘤细胞并引起细胞裂解；另一方面，它们在裂解过程中释放的分子还能诱导先天性和适应性免疫反应，吸引更多免疫细胞来继续杀死残余肿瘤细胞，因此溶瘤病毒作为创新疗法有很好的临床前景。溶瘤病毒的主要适应症为膀胱癌，膀胱癌是泌尿系统最常见的恶性肿瘤，在中国泌尿生殖道肿瘤的发病率最高，在中国的五年生存率为72.9%，膀胱癌治疗有重大的市场机会。此外，溶瘤病毒还可拓展至其他适应症，尤其能在联用中体现优势，溶瘤病毒及抗PD-1╱抗PD-L1单克隆抗体的联合已成为新兴的晚期恶性肿瘤治疗方法。CG0070在CG Oncology于美国进行的用于治疗NMIBC的临床II期研究中展现出良好的安全性及疗效， 2021年11月13日，CG Oncology披露了CG0070联合K药十分亮眼的Ⅱ期临床试验数据。试验结果显示，在可评估疗效的9名NMIBC患者中，所有患者在3个月时实现了完全缓解（CR），此外，达到6个月评估节点和9个月评估节点的患者CR率也保持了100%。全球很多家企业布局了共约180多款溶瘤病毒管线，但目前CG Oncology和美国Candel Therapeutics（CADL.US）的aglatimagene besadenovec（治疗前列腺癌进入了临床III期）属于其中进展较快的管线。除CG0070外，乐普生物还参股了武汉滨会生物，滨会生物自主开发了重组人GM-CSF溶瘤II型单纯疱疹病毒（OH2）注射液。乐普生物招股书显示，HX008联合OH2针对晚期肝细胞癌的联合疗法已经获批IND并开始相应的I期临床试验。乐普生物已建立起针对多种适应症的多个肿瘤治疗管线。随着产品商业化的临近，公司也在推进单抗与其他核心管线联用的研究，以期为患者提供创新甚至颠覆性的治疗方案。除上述HX008联合OH2外，乐普生物还计划就ADC联合HX008治疗晚期头颈部鳞状细胞癌（HNSCC）等进行研发。MRG003联合HX008治疗HNSCC，以及MRG002与HX008联合治疗胃癌均已从国家药监局获得了IND批准。而从全球来看，K药等单抗产品与ADC、溶瘤病毒联用的临床试验中，联合疗法普遍显示出较单药更高的完全缓解率，参与联合化疗试验的患者生存率也在提高。在推进候选产品开发的同时，公司已规划并正在落实生产和商业化布局。2019年，乐普生物在北京建设了GMP标准的2,000L抗体生产线并投产，目前还正在北京建设200L溶瘤病毒药物生产线。公司目前还在建上海的生物医药生产中心，包括初步设计产能12,000L的生产线及配套实验室和厂房的建设。依托公司的团队和技术平台，生产及商业化能力的建设也将为公司的全球化布局提供巨大支持。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02157":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096940559,"gmtCreate":1644287131714,"gmtModify":1676533908888,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096940559","repostId":"1162467337","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096039914,"gmtCreate":1644248676565,"gmtModify":1676533904606,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096039914","repostId":"2209371501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2209371501","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644247992,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2209371501?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-07 23:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla \"admits loss\": buying Bitcoin, \"losing\" more than 100 million US dollars","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209371501","media":"上海证券报 ","summary":"与数字资产“相濡以沫”的特斯拉，这次被比特币“伤了”！近日，特斯拉在向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）递交的10-K年报文件中，透露了其拥有比特币的“代价”：因为比特币市场价格波动，去年全年计提了1.01","content":"<p><div>Tesla, who is \"helping each other\" with digital assets, was \"hurt\" by Bitcoin this time! Recently, in the 10-K annual report document submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Tesla revealed its \"price\" for owning Bitcoin: due to price fluctuations in the Bitcoin market, it made a provision of US $101 million last year. impairment loss. Regarding digital assets, including Bitcoin, Tesla also has the latest statement in the document-\"believe in the long-term potential of digital assets as investment products and liquid cash substitutes.\" Tesla has a deep relationship with Bitcoin, and its series of statements and actions are deeply linked to Bitcoin's trend...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2022-02-07/doc-ikyakumy4701936.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla \"admits loss\": buying Bitcoin, \"losing\" more than 100 million US dollars</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla \"admits loss\": buying Bitcoin, \"losing\" more than 100 million US dollars\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-07 23:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Tesla, who is \"helping each other\" with digital assets, was \"hurt\" by Bitcoin this time! Recently, in the 10-K annual report document submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Tesla revealed its \"price\" for owning Bitcoin: due to price fluctuations in the Bitcoin market, it made a provision of US $101 million last year. impairment loss. Regarding digital assets, including Bitcoin, Tesla also has the latest statement in the document-\"believe in the long-term potential of digital assets as investment products and liquid cash substitutes.\" Tesla has a deep relationship with Bitcoin, and its series of statements and actions are deeply linked to Bitcoin's trend...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2022-02-07/doc-ikyakumy4701936.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2022-02-07/doc-ikyakumy4701936.shtml\">上海证券报 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5269b01b5a203aebaa9521691bcd9de6","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","CAN":"嘉楠科技","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","EBON":"亿邦国际","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2022-02-07/doc-ikyakumy4701936.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209371501","content_text":"与数字资产“相濡以沫”的特斯拉，这次被比特币“伤了”！近日，特斯拉在向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）递交的10-K年报文件中，透露了其拥有比特币的“代价”：因为比特币市场价格波动，去年全年计提了1.01亿美元的减值损失。对于包括比特币在内的数字资产，特斯拉在文件中也有最新表态——“相信数字资产作为投资品和流动现金替代品的长期潜力”。特斯拉与比特币的渊源颇深，其一系列表态与动作，与比特币的走势勾连深厚，市场互动之间，不乏“相爱相杀”的剧情。然而，从当下来看，比特币泡沫破灭态势已不可避免。截至发稿，比特币最新价格为42773.1美元，虽较此前低点有所反弹，但对比去年高点已明显“偃旗息鼓”。多位专家近期均表示，比特币未来几年或将进入萧条期。计提约1.01亿美元减值损失根据特斯拉提交给SEC的10-K文件，在截至2021年12月31日的一年中，由于公司比特币的账面价值变化，计提了约1.01亿美元的减值损失。特斯拉在文件中称，截至2021年12月31日，其持有的数字资产账面价值为12.6亿美元，反映了1.01亿美元的累计减值。截至2021年12月31日，持有的此类数字资产的公允市值为19.9亿美元。在这份文件中，特斯拉关于数字资产，也有最新表态！特斯拉表示，相信数字资产作为投资产品和现金的流动替代品的长期潜力。“与任何其他投资一样，我们可能会根据业务需求以及对市场和环境条件的看法，随时增持或减持数字资产。需要注意的是，数字资产的市场价格一直在波动，所以，在我们想要或需要变现的时候，价格不一定很友好。”“相爱相杀”大戏持续上演特斯拉与比特币的渊源由来已久，早在2021年2月，特斯拉就在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中透露，它购买了价值约15亿美元的比特币作为战略投资，此举彼时曾一度把比特币价格推上5万美元大关。2021年3月24日，特斯拉美国官网显示，用户的购买界面出现了比特币付款选项。比特币价格由此再次扶摇直上，最高触及6.4万美元。不过，到了同年5月中旬，有用户发布消息称，发现特斯拉抛售了所有剩余的比特币。特斯拉CEO马斯克也在社交媒体进行了回复称：“确实。”受此影响，比特币价格大跌。按照报价平台CoinDesk的数据，北京时间2021年5月17日6时50分时，比特币报45701.5美元，24小时跌幅接近5.3%，此前一度跌至43837.43美元的低位。而2021年6月4日，马斯克连发两条推文，推文内容中带有“比特币”话题和心碎的表情符号，配有一对情侣讨论分手的照片。推文一经发出，比特币价格再次应声下跌，自39000美元上方跌至36000美元附近，9小时内跌幅近6%。美图也曾“栽在”比特币手中在投资比特币且面临大幅减值亏损的这条路上，特斯拉并不孤单。美图公司去年7月公布，该公司在去年3月至4月合计购买总共约3.1万单位的以太币及940.89单位的比特币，总对价约1亿美元。公告显示，根据国际财务报告准则，集团已购买比特币的公允价值于2021年6月30日减少约1730万美元（1.34亿港元），预期将于中期业绩里确认为减值亏损，而已购买以太币的公允价值增加约1470万美元，将不会于中期业绩内确认为重估收益。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EBON":1,"XBTmain":1,"TSLA":1,"BTCmain":1,"CAN":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002709235,"gmtCreate":1642085374154,"gmtModify":1676533679368,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002709235","repostId":"2203762528","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2203762528","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1642084749,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2203762528?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-13 22:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wages and Prices Spiral, Can the Fed Stop the U.S. Recession?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2203762528","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美国非农及CPI数据公布后，美国经济处境变得十分尴尬。就业情况不容乐观，通胀已经破7，这意味着当前的通胀水平和“大滞胀”时期已经基本相当。此外，美联储最担心的事情也初见端倪，即“工资-物价”螺旋初步形","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>After the release of U.S. non-agricultural and CPI data, the U.S. economic situation became very embarrassing. The employment situation is not optimistic, and inflation has exceeded 7, which means that the current inflation level is basically the same as the \"Great Stagflation\" period. In addition, what the Fed is most worried about is beginning to take shape, that is, the \"wage-price\" spiral has initially taken shape, and low-income earners demand higher wage growth. That could lead to inflation remaining well above the Fed's 2% target, forcing a sharp rate hike and triggering recession risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a83930eef744f47fb6f12d8a4319e113\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>If we recalculate the current inflation level according to the 1980 method, the so-called \"shadow inflation\", we will find that the year-on-year growth rate of US CPI has reached a high of about 15%.</p><p>Current economic conditions in the United States</p><p>On January 12, local time, the Federal Reserve released a regional economic survey report commonly known as \"Beige Book\". The report shows that the U.S. economic growth was moderate in the final weeks of 2021, but companies in some regions have cooled their expectations for economic growth in the next six months due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Of the 12 local Feds, 10 said the Omicron variant has affected economic activity, exacerbating inflation and hiring challenges.</p><p>In terms of inflation, the report shows that service providers and commodity producers in various industries are under pressure from rising wholesale and material prices and costs. Some Feds attribute high costs to ongoing supply chain disruptions; There are also some regions that react that shipping bottlenecks have stabilized in recent weeks, but procurement costs remain high. At the same time, it is worth noting that persistent labor shortages and corresponding wage increases are also putting more cost pressures on companies.</p><p>Notably, the report shows that tight labor market conditions have driven strong wage growth across the U.S. nationwide, with some regions highlighting additional increases in labor costs related to non-wage benefits in the report. Reports from many regions pointed to particularly strong wage growth for low-skilled workers, with pay growth well above historical averages in all industries, all employees and all regions.</p><p>In addition, data disclosed by the Atlanta Fed show that the wages of the lowest-income earners in the United States are growing at the fastest rate since the financial crisis, much higher than the wage growth rate of high-income earners in the same period. This data is consistent with the average hourly wage growth rate of various industries. Considering that the wage growth rate has continued to rise and the price growth rate has been synchronized in the past six months, the spiral of wages and inflation may have initially taken shape.</p><p>From the perspective of small Business operations, according to the Business survey, nearly 90% of small businesses plan to raise prices by 15% or more, which is due to the ever-increasing cost burden. Nearly nine out of 10 small businesses reported an increase in the cost of supplies or services since the pandemic, with the majority (71%) reporting an increase of at least 20%.</p><p>Neal Bradley, chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said inflation has become a major problem facing small businesses, and small business owners have more worried about inflation than COVID-19 pandemic. In the early days of the outbreak, small businesses mainly faced problems such as blockade control and economic recession caused by the epidemic. And now they are mainly facing inflation, severe labor shortages and supply chain disruptions.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP learned that there are currently about 25 million small and medium-sized enterprises in the United States, accounting for about 98% of all enterprises in the United States, and they are the most dynamic part of the U.S. economy.</p><p>The market is wary of liquidity tightening risks</p><p>As inflation continues to remain more than double its flexible target of 2% annually, the Federal Reserve has taken steps to control inflation. In November last year, the Federal Reserve began to reduce the pace of monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, and will completely end the program in mid-March, clearing the way for its rate hike to begin at its policy meeting on March 15-16.</p><p>The Fed is under pressure from Congress and the public to deal with the worst inflation since the 1980s. Policymakers, including Federal Reserve Governor Waller, Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Mester, have signaled that they want to raise interest rates as early as March if the current economic situation remains unchanged.</p><p>Inflation has obviously become the key to determining the next direction of the Fed's monetary policy. The dot plot of interest rates released at the Federal Reserve's December meeting suggested three times this year or rate hike, each of 25 basis points. newest<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange</a>(CME) Fed Watch data shows that traders believe that the probability of the Fed's rate hike in March is 74.4%, and the probability of implementing the fourth rate hike of the year in December is about 50%.</p><p>High inflation, the Federal Reserve's accelerated tightening of monetary policy, and market concerns about the Omicron mutant strain are jointly affecting the performance of the US stock market. If inflation cannot fall back for a long time, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy too quickly to combat high inflation, affecting further economic recovery, and the stock market, which is extremely sensitive to economic prosperity, will face huge challenges.</p><p>But in any case, the overall description of the economy in the latest Beige Book is \"moderate\" growth. Although it is down from the assessment of \"moderate to moderate\" growth in the previous two reports, the tone of the whole report is still optimistic rather than pessimistic.</p><p>Therefore, optimistically, rate hike and even shrinking balance sheet cannot completely solve the current problem of high inflation in the United States. But on the one hand, it can indeed partially alleviate the upward pressure of inflation. On the other hand, the tightening of monetary policy also has an important impact on expectations. If various market entities believe that the inflation level will drop significantly, it will change its high inflation. The behavior pattern under this situation enables regulatory policies to achieve twice the result with half the effort.</p><p>But in any case, what is certain is that the current high inflation level is difficult to really change with only one or two rate hike. Therefore, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will have many rate hike this year, and the market still needs to be alert to the risks of liquidity tightening.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wages and Prices Spiral, Can the Fed Stop the U.S. Recession?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWages and Prices Spiral, Can the Fed Stop the U.S. Recession?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-13 22:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After the release of U.S. non-agricultural and CPI data, the U.S. economic situation became very embarrassing. The employment situation is not optimistic, and inflation has exceeded 7, which means that the current inflation level is basically the same as the \"Great Stagflation\" period. In addition, what the Fed is most worried about is beginning to take shape, that is, the \"wage-price\" spiral has initially taken shape, and low-income earners demand higher wage growth. That could lead to inflation remaining well above the Fed's 2% target, forcing a sharp rate hike and triggering recession risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a83930eef744f47fb6f12d8a4319e113\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>If we recalculate the current inflation level according to the 1980 method, the so-called \"shadow inflation\", we will find that the year-on-year growth rate of US CPI has reached a high of about 15%.</p><p>Current economic conditions in the United States</p><p>On January 12, local time, the Federal Reserve released a regional economic survey report commonly known as \"Beige Book\". The report shows that the U.S. economic growth was moderate in the final weeks of 2021, but companies in some regions have cooled their expectations for economic growth in the next six months due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Of the 12 local Feds, 10 said the Omicron variant has affected economic activity, exacerbating inflation and hiring challenges.</p><p>In terms of inflation, the report shows that service providers and commodity producers in various industries are under pressure from rising wholesale and material prices and costs. Some Feds attribute high costs to ongoing supply chain disruptions; There are also some regions that react that shipping bottlenecks have stabilized in recent weeks, but procurement costs remain high. At the same time, it is worth noting that persistent labor shortages and corresponding wage increases are also putting more cost pressures on companies.</p><p>Notably, the report shows that tight labor market conditions have driven strong wage growth across the U.S. nationwide, with some regions highlighting additional increases in labor costs related to non-wage benefits in the report. Reports from many regions pointed to particularly strong wage growth for low-skilled workers, with pay growth well above historical averages in all industries, all employees and all regions.</p><p>In addition, data disclosed by the Atlanta Fed show that the wages of the lowest-income earners in the United States are growing at the fastest rate since the financial crisis, much higher than the wage growth rate of high-income earners in the same period. This data is consistent with the average hourly wage growth rate of various industries. Considering that the wage growth rate has continued to rise and the price growth rate has been synchronized in the past six months, the spiral of wages and inflation may have initially taken shape.</p><p>From the perspective of small Business operations, according to the Business survey, nearly 90% of small businesses plan to raise prices by 15% or more, which is due to the ever-increasing cost burden. Nearly nine out of 10 small businesses reported an increase in the cost of supplies or services since the pandemic, with the majority (71%) reporting an increase of at least 20%.</p><p>Neal Bradley, chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said inflation has become a major problem facing small businesses, and small business owners have more worried about inflation than COVID-19 pandemic. In the early days of the outbreak, small businesses mainly faced problems such as blockade control and economic recession caused by the epidemic. And now they are mainly facing inflation, severe labor shortages and supply chain disruptions.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP learned that there are currently about 25 million small and medium-sized enterprises in the United States, accounting for about 98% of all enterprises in the United States, and they are the most dynamic part of the U.S. economy.</p><p>The market is wary of liquidity tightening risks</p><p>As inflation continues to remain more than double its flexible target of 2% annually, the Federal Reserve has taken steps to control inflation. In November last year, the Federal Reserve began to reduce the pace of monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, and will completely end the program in mid-March, clearing the way for its rate hike to begin at its policy meeting on March 15-16.</p><p>The Fed is under pressure from Congress and the public to deal with the worst inflation since the 1980s. Policymakers, including Federal Reserve Governor Waller, Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Mester, have signaled that they want to raise interest rates as early as March if the current economic situation remains unchanged.</p><p>Inflation has obviously become the key to determining the next direction of the Fed's monetary policy. The dot plot of interest rates released at the Federal Reserve's December meeting suggested three times this year or rate hike, each of 25 basis points. newest<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange</a>(CME) Fed Watch data shows that traders believe that the probability of the Fed's rate hike in March is 74.4%, and the probability of implementing the fourth rate hike of the year in December is about 50%.</p><p>High inflation, the Federal Reserve's accelerated tightening of monetary policy, and market concerns about the Omicron mutant strain are jointly affecting the performance of the US stock market. If inflation cannot fall back for a long time, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy too quickly to combat high inflation, affecting further economic recovery, and the stock market, which is extremely sensitive to economic prosperity, will face huge challenges.</p><p>But in any case, the overall description of the economy in the latest Beige Book is \"moderate\" growth. Although it is down from the assessment of \"moderate to moderate\" growth in the previous two reports, the tone of the whole report is still optimistic rather than pessimistic.</p><p>Therefore, optimistically, rate hike and even shrinking balance sheet cannot completely solve the current problem of high inflation in the United States. But on the one hand, it can indeed partially alleviate the upward pressure of inflation. On the other hand, the tightening of monetary policy also has an important impact on expectations. If various market entities believe that the inflation level will drop significantly, it will change its high inflation. The behavior pattern under this situation enables regulatory policies to achieve twice the result with half the effort.</p><p>But in any case, what is certain is that the current high inflation level is difficult to really change with only one or two rate hike. Therefore, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will have many rate hike this year, and the market still needs to be alert to the risks of liquidity tightening.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/640354.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a335dbc7703604fbe6877b83265f3eb8","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/640354.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2203762528","content_text":"美国非农及CPI数据公布后，美国经济处境变得十分尴尬。就业情况不容乐观，通胀已经破7，这意味着当前的通胀水平和“大滞胀”时期已经基本相当。此外，美联储最担心的事情也初见端倪，即“工资-物价”螺旋初步形成，低收入者要求更高薪资增速。这可能导致通胀率保持在远高于美联储2%目标的水平，迫使其大幅加息，并引发经济衰退风险。如果按照1980年的方法，重新计算当前的通胀水平，即所谓“影子通胀”，则会发现美国CPI同比增速已达到15%左右的高位。美国当前经济状况当地时间1月12日，美联储发布了俗称“褐皮书”的地区经济调查报告。报告显示，2021年最后几周，美国经济增长温和，但由于受限于持续的供应链中断和劳动力短缺，部分地区的企业对未来六个月经济增长的预期有所降温。在12家地方联储中，10家表示奥密克戎变异株影响了经济活动，加剧了通胀和招聘方面的挑战。在通胀方面，该报告显示，各个行业的服务提供商和商品生产商，都受到来自批发和材料价格成本上升的压力。一些联储将高成本归因于持续的供应链中断;也有一些地区反应运输瓶颈在最近几周已经稳定下来，但采购成本仍然很高。同时，值得注意的是，持续的劳动力短缺和相应的工资增长也给企业带来了更多的成本压力。值得注意是的，该报告显示，劳动力市场的紧张状况推动了美国全国范围内工资的强劲增长，一些地区在报告中强调了与非工资福利相关的劳动力成本的额外增长。许多地区的报告指出低技能工人的工资增长特别强劲，在所有行业、所有员工和所有地区的薪酬增长均远高于历史平均水平。此外，亚特兰大联储披露的数据显示，美国最低收入者的工资正以金融危机以来最快的速度增长，远高于同期高收入者的工资增速。这一数据与各行业的平均时薪增速较为一致，考虑到近半年来工资增速的持续走高和物价增速走势同步，工资和通胀螺旋上升的局面或已初步形成。从小企业运营状况的角度看，据Business调查发现，接近90%的小企业计划提价15%及以上，这是源于不停增长的成本负担。近九成的小企业报告称，自新冠大流行以来，供应或服务的成本增加了，其中大多数(71%)报告说至少增加了20%。美国商会的首席政策官尼尔·布拉德利表示，通胀已经成为小企业所面临的主要问题，小企业主对通胀的担忧已经超过了新冠疫情。疫情爆发初期，小企业们主要面临的是封锁管控和疫情导致的经济衰退等问题。而现在他们面临的主要是通胀、劳动力严重短缺和供应链中断。智通财经APP了解到，美国目前约有中小企业2500万家，其数量约占美国全部企业数量的98%，是美国经济中最具活力的部分。市场警惕流动性收紧风险随着通胀年率持续保持在2%的灵活目标的两倍以上，美联储已经采取措施来控制通胀。去年11月，美联储开始减少每月购买公债和抵押贷款支持证券的步伐，并将在3月中完全结束该计划，为其在3月15-16日的政策会议上开始加息扫清道路。美联储面临着来自国会和公众的压力，要求他们应对1980年代以来最严重的通货膨胀。包括美联储理事沃勒、亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长博斯蒂克和克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特在内的决策者已经暗示，如果目前的经济状况保持不变，他们希望最早在3月升息。通胀显然成了决定美联储货币政策下一步走向的关键。美联储去年12月会议上发布的利率点阵图暗示今年或加息3次，每次25个基点。最新芝加哥商品交易所(CME)美联储观察数据显示，交易员认为美联储3月加息的概率为74.4%，12月实施年内第4次加息的概率约50%。高企的通胀、美联储加速收紧货币政策以及市场对于奥密克戎变异毒株的担忧，正在共同影响美股市场的表现。若通胀迟迟无法回落，美联储为对抗高通胀可能会过快收紧货币政策，影响经济进一步复苏，而对经济景气极为敏感的股市将会迎接巨大的挑战。但无论如何，最新的褐皮书对经济的总体描述是“温和”增长，尽管较之前两份报告中“温和至适度”增长的评估有所下降，但整个报告的基调仍偏乐观，而非悲观。因此，乐观来看，加息乃至于缩表并不能够完全解决当前美国通胀高企的问题。但一方面，其确确实实可以部分缓解通胀上行的压力，而另一方面，货币政策转紧对于预期的影响也举足轻重，如果各个市场主体认为通胀水平会有显著回落，则会改变其高通胀下的行为模式，使得调控政策能够发挥事半功倍的效果。但无论如何，可以肯定的是，目前高企的通胀水平仅靠一到两次加息很难真正改变，因此，今年年内预计美联储将有多次加息，市场仍需警惕流动性收紧的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":1,"SPY":1,".DJI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002709386,"gmtCreate":1642085334551,"gmtModify":1676533679367,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002709386","repostId":"2203762528","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2203762528","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1642084749,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2203762528?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-13 22:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wages and Prices Spiral, Can the Fed Stop the U.S. Recession?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2203762528","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美国非农及CPI数据公布后，美国经济处境变得十分尴尬。就业情况不容乐观，通胀已经破7，这意味着当前的通胀水平和“大滞胀”时期已经基本相当。此外，美联储最担心的事情也初见端倪，即“工资-物价”螺旋初步形","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>After the release of U.S. non-agricultural and CPI data, the U.S. economic situation became very embarrassing. The employment situation is not optimistic, and inflation has exceeded 7, which means that the current inflation level is basically the same as the \"Great Stagflation\" period. In addition, what the Fed is most worried about is beginning to take shape, that is, the \"wage-price\" spiral has initially taken shape, and low-income earners demand higher wage growth. That could lead to inflation remaining well above the Fed's 2% target, forcing a sharp rate hike and triggering recession risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a83930eef744f47fb6f12d8a4319e113\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>If we recalculate the current inflation level according to the 1980 method, the so-called \"shadow inflation\", we will find that the year-on-year growth rate of US CPI has reached a high of about 15%.</p><p>Current economic conditions in the United States</p><p>On January 12, local time, the Federal Reserve released a regional economic survey report commonly known as \"Beige Book\". The report shows that the U.S. economic growth was moderate in the final weeks of 2021, but companies in some regions have cooled their expectations for economic growth in the next six months due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Of the 12 local Feds, 10 said the Omicron variant has affected economic activity, exacerbating inflation and hiring challenges.</p><p>In terms of inflation, the report shows that service providers and commodity producers in various industries are under pressure from rising wholesale and material prices and costs. Some Feds attribute high costs to ongoing supply chain disruptions; There are also some regions that react that shipping bottlenecks have stabilized in recent weeks, but procurement costs remain high. At the same time, it is worth noting that persistent labor shortages and corresponding wage increases are also putting more cost pressures on companies.</p><p>Notably, the report shows that tight labor market conditions have driven strong wage growth across the U.S. nationwide, with some regions highlighting additional increases in labor costs related to non-wage benefits in the report. Reports from many regions pointed to particularly strong wage growth for low-skilled workers, with pay growth well above historical averages in all industries, all employees and all regions.</p><p>In addition, data disclosed by the Atlanta Fed show that the wages of the lowest-income earners in the United States are growing at the fastest rate since the financial crisis, much higher than the wage growth rate of high-income earners in the same period. This data is consistent with the average hourly wage growth rate of various industries. Considering that the wage growth rate has continued to rise and the price growth rate has been synchronized in the past six months, the spiral of wages and inflation may have initially taken shape.</p><p>From the perspective of small Business operations, according to the Business survey, nearly 90% of small businesses plan to raise prices by 15% or more, which is due to the ever-increasing cost burden. Nearly nine out of 10 small businesses reported an increase in the cost of supplies or services since the pandemic, with the majority (71%) reporting an increase of at least 20%.</p><p>Neal Bradley, chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said inflation has become a major problem facing small businesses, and small business owners have more worried about inflation than COVID-19 pandemic. In the early days of the outbreak, small businesses mainly faced problems such as blockade control and economic recession caused by the epidemic. And now they are mainly facing inflation, severe labor shortages and supply chain disruptions.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP learned that there are currently about 25 million small and medium-sized enterprises in the United States, accounting for about 98% of all enterprises in the United States, and they are the most dynamic part of the U.S. economy.</p><p>The market is wary of liquidity tightening risks</p><p>As inflation continues to remain more than double its flexible target of 2% annually, the Federal Reserve has taken steps to control inflation. In November last year, the Federal Reserve began to reduce the pace of monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, and will completely end the program in mid-March, clearing the way for its rate hike to begin at its policy meeting on March 15-16.</p><p>The Fed is under pressure from Congress and the public to deal with the worst inflation since the 1980s. Policymakers, including Federal Reserve Governor Waller, Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Mester, have signaled that they want to raise interest rates as early as March if the current economic situation remains unchanged.</p><p>Inflation has obviously become the key to determining the next direction of the Fed's monetary policy. The dot plot of interest rates released at the Federal Reserve's December meeting suggested three times this year or rate hike, each of 25 basis points. newest<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange</a>(CME) Fed Watch data shows that traders believe that the probability of the Fed's rate hike in March is 74.4%, and the probability of implementing the fourth rate hike of the year in December is about 50%.</p><p>High inflation, the Federal Reserve's accelerated tightening of monetary policy, and market concerns about the Omicron mutant strain are jointly affecting the performance of the US stock market. If inflation cannot fall back for a long time, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy too quickly to combat high inflation, affecting further economic recovery, and the stock market, which is extremely sensitive to economic prosperity, will face huge challenges.</p><p>But in any case, the overall description of the economy in the latest Beige Book is \"moderate\" growth. Although it is down from the assessment of \"moderate to moderate\" growth in the previous two reports, the tone of the whole report is still optimistic rather than pessimistic.</p><p>Therefore, optimistically, rate hike and even shrinking balance sheet cannot completely solve the current problem of high inflation in the United States. But on the one hand, it can indeed partially alleviate the upward pressure of inflation. On the other hand, the tightening of monetary policy also has an important impact on expectations. If various market entities believe that the inflation level will drop significantly, it will change its high inflation. The behavior pattern under this situation enables regulatory policies to achieve twice the result with half the effort.</p><p>But in any case, what is certain is that the current high inflation level is difficult to really change with only one or two rate hike. Therefore, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will have many rate hike this year, and the market still needs to be alert to the risks of liquidity tightening.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wages and Prices Spiral, Can the Fed Stop the U.S. Recession?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWages and Prices Spiral, Can the Fed Stop the U.S. Recession?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-13 22:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After the release of U.S. non-agricultural and CPI data, the U.S. economic situation became very embarrassing. The employment situation is not optimistic, and inflation has exceeded 7, which means that the current inflation level is basically the same as the \"Great Stagflation\" period. In addition, what the Fed is most worried about is beginning to take shape, that is, the \"wage-price\" spiral has initially taken shape, and low-income earners demand higher wage growth. That could lead to inflation remaining well above the Fed's 2% target, forcing a sharp rate hike and triggering recession risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a83930eef744f47fb6f12d8a4319e113\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>If we recalculate the current inflation level according to the 1980 method, the so-called \"shadow inflation\", we will find that the year-on-year growth rate of US CPI has reached a high of about 15%.</p><p>Current economic conditions in the United States</p><p>On January 12, local time, the Federal Reserve released a regional economic survey report commonly known as \"Beige Book\". The report shows that the U.S. economic growth was moderate in the final weeks of 2021, but companies in some regions have cooled their expectations for economic growth in the next six months due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Of the 12 local Feds, 10 said the Omicron variant has affected economic activity, exacerbating inflation and hiring challenges.</p><p>In terms of inflation, the report shows that service providers and commodity producers in various industries are under pressure from rising wholesale and material prices and costs. Some Feds attribute high costs to ongoing supply chain disruptions; There are also some regions that react that shipping bottlenecks have stabilized in recent weeks, but procurement costs remain high. At the same time, it is worth noting that persistent labor shortages and corresponding wage increases are also putting more cost pressures on companies.</p><p>Notably, the report shows that tight labor market conditions have driven strong wage growth across the U.S. nationwide, with some regions highlighting additional increases in labor costs related to non-wage benefits in the report. Reports from many regions pointed to particularly strong wage growth for low-skilled workers, with pay growth well above historical averages in all industries, all employees and all regions.</p><p>In addition, data disclosed by the Atlanta Fed show that the wages of the lowest-income earners in the United States are growing at the fastest rate since the financial crisis, much higher than the wage growth rate of high-income earners in the same period. This data is consistent with the average hourly wage growth rate of various industries. Considering that the wage growth rate has continued to rise and the price growth rate has been synchronized in the past six months, the spiral of wages and inflation may have initially taken shape.</p><p>From the perspective of small Business operations, according to the Business survey, nearly 90% of small businesses plan to raise prices by 15% or more, which is due to the ever-increasing cost burden. Nearly nine out of 10 small businesses reported an increase in the cost of supplies or services since the pandemic, with the majority (71%) reporting an increase of at least 20%.</p><p>Neal Bradley, chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said inflation has become a major problem facing small businesses, and small business owners have more worried about inflation than COVID-19 pandemic. In the early days of the outbreak, small businesses mainly faced problems such as blockade control and economic recession caused by the epidemic. And now they are mainly facing inflation, severe labor shortages and supply chain disruptions.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP learned that there are currently about 25 million small and medium-sized enterprises in the United States, accounting for about 98% of all enterprises in the United States, and they are the most dynamic part of the U.S. economy.</p><p>The market is wary of liquidity tightening risks</p><p>As inflation continues to remain more than double its flexible target of 2% annually, the Federal Reserve has taken steps to control inflation. In November last year, the Federal Reserve began to reduce the pace of monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, and will completely end the program in mid-March, clearing the way for its rate hike to begin at its policy meeting on March 15-16.</p><p>The Fed is under pressure from Congress and the public to deal with the worst inflation since the 1980s. Policymakers, including Federal Reserve Governor Waller, Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Mester, have signaled that they want to raise interest rates as early as March if the current economic situation remains unchanged.</p><p>Inflation has obviously become the key to determining the next direction of the Fed's monetary policy. The dot plot of interest rates released at the Federal Reserve's December meeting suggested three times this year or rate hike, each of 25 basis points. newest<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange</a>(CME) Fed Watch data shows that traders believe that the probability of the Fed's rate hike in March is 74.4%, and the probability of implementing the fourth rate hike of the year in December is about 50%.</p><p>High inflation, the Federal Reserve's accelerated tightening of monetary policy, and market concerns about the Omicron mutant strain are jointly affecting the performance of the US stock market. If inflation cannot fall back for a long time, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy too quickly to combat high inflation, affecting further economic recovery, and the stock market, which is extremely sensitive to economic prosperity, will face huge challenges.</p><p>But in any case, the overall description of the economy in the latest Beige Book is \"moderate\" growth. Although it is down from the assessment of \"moderate to moderate\" growth in the previous two reports, the tone of the whole report is still optimistic rather than pessimistic.</p><p>Therefore, optimistically, rate hike and even shrinking balance sheet cannot completely solve the current problem of high inflation in the United States. But on the one hand, it can indeed partially alleviate the upward pressure of inflation. On the other hand, the tightening of monetary policy also has an important impact on expectations. If various market entities believe that the inflation level will drop significantly, it will change its high inflation. The behavior pattern under this situation enables regulatory policies to achieve twice the result with half the effort.</p><p>But in any case, what is certain is that the current high inflation level is difficult to really change with only one or two rate hike. Therefore, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will have many rate hike this year, and the market still needs to be alert to the risks of liquidity tightening.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/640354.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a335dbc7703604fbe6877b83265f3eb8","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/640354.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2203762528","content_text":"美国非农及CPI数据公布后，美国经济处境变得十分尴尬。就业情况不容乐观，通胀已经破7，这意味着当前的通胀水平和“大滞胀”时期已经基本相当。此外，美联储最担心的事情也初见端倪，即“工资-物价”螺旋初步形成，低收入者要求更高薪资增速。这可能导致通胀率保持在远高于美联储2%目标的水平，迫使其大幅加息，并引发经济衰退风险。如果按照1980年的方法，重新计算当前的通胀水平，即所谓“影子通胀”，则会发现美国CPI同比增速已达到15%左右的高位。美国当前经济状况当地时间1月12日，美联储发布了俗称“褐皮书”的地区经济调查报告。报告显示，2021年最后几周，美国经济增长温和，但由于受限于持续的供应链中断和劳动力短缺，部分地区的企业对未来六个月经济增长的预期有所降温。在12家地方联储中，10家表示奥密克戎变异株影响了经济活动，加剧了通胀和招聘方面的挑战。在通胀方面，该报告显示，各个行业的服务提供商和商品生产商，都受到来自批发和材料价格成本上升的压力。一些联储将高成本归因于持续的供应链中断;也有一些地区反应运输瓶颈在最近几周已经稳定下来，但采购成本仍然很高。同时，值得注意的是，持续的劳动力短缺和相应的工资增长也给企业带来了更多的成本压力。值得注意是的，该报告显示，劳动力市场的紧张状况推动了美国全国范围内工资的强劲增长，一些地区在报告中强调了与非工资福利相关的劳动力成本的额外增长。许多地区的报告指出低技能工人的工资增长特别强劲，在所有行业、所有员工和所有地区的薪酬增长均远高于历史平均水平。此外，亚特兰大联储披露的数据显示，美国最低收入者的工资正以金融危机以来最快的速度增长，远高于同期高收入者的工资增速。这一数据与各行业的平均时薪增速较为一致，考虑到近半年来工资增速的持续走高和物价增速走势同步，工资和通胀螺旋上升的局面或已初步形成。从小企业运营状况的角度看，据Business调查发现，接近90%的小企业计划提价15%及以上，这是源于不停增长的成本负担。近九成的小企业报告称，自新冠大流行以来，供应或服务的成本增加了，其中大多数(71%)报告说至少增加了20%。美国商会的首席政策官尼尔·布拉德利表示，通胀已经成为小企业所面临的主要问题，小企业主对通胀的担忧已经超过了新冠疫情。疫情爆发初期，小企业们主要面临的是封锁管控和疫情导致的经济衰退等问题。而现在他们面临的主要是通胀、劳动力严重短缺和供应链中断。智通财经APP了解到，美国目前约有中小企业2500万家，其数量约占美国全部企业数量的98%，是美国经济中最具活力的部分。市场警惕流动性收紧风险随着通胀年率持续保持在2%的灵活目标的两倍以上，美联储已经采取措施来控制通胀。去年11月，美联储开始减少每月购买公债和抵押贷款支持证券的步伐，并将在3月中完全结束该计划，为其在3月15-16日的政策会议上开始加息扫清道路。美联储面临着来自国会和公众的压力，要求他们应对1980年代以来最严重的通货膨胀。包括美联储理事沃勒、亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长博斯蒂克和克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特在内的决策者已经暗示，如果目前的经济状况保持不变，他们希望最早在3月升息。通胀显然成了决定美联储货币政策下一步走向的关键。美联储去年12月会议上发布的利率点阵图暗示今年或加息3次，每次25个基点。最新芝加哥商品交易所(CME)美联储观察数据显示，交易员认为美联储3月加息的概率为74.4%，12月实施年内第4次加息的概率约50%。高企的通胀、美联储加速收紧货币政策以及市场对于奥密克戎变异毒株的担忧，正在共同影响美股市场的表现。若通胀迟迟无法回落，美联储为对抗高通胀可能会过快收紧货币政策，影响经济进一步复苏，而对经济景气极为敏感的股市将会迎接巨大的挑战。但无论如何，最新的褐皮书对经济的总体描述是“温和”增长，尽管较之前两份报告中“温和至适度”增长的评估有所下降，但整个报告的基调仍偏乐观，而非悲观。因此，乐观来看，加息乃至于缩表并不能够完全解决当前美国通胀高企的问题。但一方面，其确确实实可以部分缓解通胀上行的压力，而另一方面，货币政策转紧对于预期的影响也举足轻重，如果各个市场主体认为通胀水平会有显著回落，则会改变其高通胀下的行为模式，使得调控政策能够发挥事半功倍的效果。但无论如何，可以肯定的是，目前高企的通胀水平仅靠一到两次加息很难真正改变，因此，今年年内预计美联储将有多次加息，市场仍需警惕流动性收紧的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":1,"SPY":1,".DJI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002453972,"gmtCreate":1642078847446,"gmtModify":1676533678512,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002453972","repostId":"2203763141","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002336586,"gmtCreate":1641912971493,"gmtModify":1676533661202,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089010487435940","authorIdStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002336586","repostId":"2202204160","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":814456542,"gmtCreate":1630880986086,"gmtModify":1676530408196,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good day&nbsp;","listText":"Good day&nbsp;","text":"Good day","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/814456542","repostId":"1152020609","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152020609","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630572749,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152020609?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-02 16:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: Due to Labor Day, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on September 6","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152020609","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月6日（下周一），美国股市因劳工节休市一天，9月7日（下周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n九月的第一个星期一是美国的劳工节（Labor Day），在189","content":"<p>On September 6 (next Monday), the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day due to Labor Day, and trading will resume on September 7 (next Tuesday).</p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, British stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p>The first Monday in September is Labor Day in the United States, which was established as a national holiday in the United States in 1894, that is, Labor Day in the United States.</p><p>On this day, people all over the United States generally hold various celebrations such as * and rallies to show their respect for workers. In some states, people hold picnics after *, eating, drinking, singing and dancing. At night, fireworks will be set off in some places.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a3b13247eca5b02ef7724259aead09e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Due to Labor Day, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on September 6</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Due to Labor Day, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on September 6\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-02 16:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On September 6 (next Monday), the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day due to Labor Day, and trading will resume on September 7 (next Tuesday).</p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, British stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p>The first Monday in September is Labor Day in the United States, which was established as a national holiday in the United States in 1894, that is, Labor Day in the United States.</p><p>On this day, people all over the United States generally hold various celebrations such as * and rallies to show their respect for workers. In some states, people hold picnics after *, eating, drinking, singing and dancing. At night, fireworks will be set off in some places.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a3b13247eca5b02ef7724259aead09e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a3b13247eca5b02ef7724259aead09e","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152020609","content_text":"9月6日（下周一），美国股市因劳工节休市一天，9月7日（下周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n九月的第一个星期一是美国的劳工节（Labor Day），在1894年被确立为美国的国家节日，即美国的劳动节。\n这一天，全美各地民众一般都会举行游行、集会等各种庆祝活动，以示对劳工的尊重。在一些州，人们在游行之后还要举办野餐会，热闹地吃喝、唱歌、跳舞。入夜，有的地方还会放焰火。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":250806779003056,"gmtCreate":1702251264994,"gmtModify":1702251269072,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good job and do it better&nbsp;","listText":"Good job and do it better&nbsp;","text":"Good job and do it better","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/250806779003056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934222915,"gmtCreate":1663260376337,"gmtModify":1676537239022,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934222915","repostId":"2267687636","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026712553,"gmtCreate":1653435450372,"gmtModify":1676535280170,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026712553","repostId":"2238304789","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088349179,"gmtCreate":1650322831491,"gmtModify":1676534693717,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088349179","repostId":"613872623","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":613872623,"gmtCreate":1649832120000,"gmtModify":1676532974118,"author":{"id":"3579560926082632","authorId":"3579560926082632","name":"投资界","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a09632062f91283b4308e641ec08979","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579560926082632","idStr":"3579560926082632"},"themes":[],"title":"精“材”路演上線！「創投W+」新材料專場路演順利舉行","htmlText":"4月8日，武漢基金產業基地「創投W+」投融資路演新材料專場順利舉行。本次活動聚焦新材料行業產學研用的深度融合，彙集6個優質項目和多位互動嘉賓線上參與交流和點評，路演項目涉及超級電容器隔膜、生物基“替塑”、AES抗菌抗病毒、高性能電化學水處理等多種新材料，集中展示了新材料領域的優質技術成果和創新應用。 活動前期，我們進行了「創投W+」投融資路演新材料專場活動線上徵集，吸引了來自深創投、鬆禾資本、九鼎投資、青域資本等近20家投資機構的投資人報名參與。會後，基地爲投資人進行了進一步對接，企業與投資人取得了直接聯繫。 活動當天，寧波柔創納米科技有限公司、貴州唯特高新能源科技有限公司、湖北譜萊光電材料有限公司、東部灣（揚州）生物新材料有限公司、浙江楓翎新材料科技有限公司、蘇州碧順環境科技有限公司在此次路演中亮相。6家企業項目各具特色，嘉賓們對項目的營銷策略、資源支持、風險與阻力、發展戰略等方面，提出了專業疑問，項目與機構代表之間形成了良好互動，多個項目獲投資機構青睞。 有項目代表表示，參加本次活動結識了很多投資人，讓他們有機會直接對話資本，探討項目成長路徑，現場思維交流和觀點的碰撞，給企業帶來了創新思考，也讓企業發展更有信心。路演中，武漢的2家本土優質企業受到投資機構的熱切關注，線上提問交流頻繁、會後對接火熱。來自浙江和江蘇的2家路演企業也表明了項目落地的意向。扶持力度大、政策體系全、創新活力足，武漢正以其特有的魅力吸引產業集聚、資本賦能，形成創投活躍的濃厚氛圍。 說到本次產業路演活動的主題，新材料作爲實體經濟的重要內容，是支撐前沿科技及新興產業發展的基石，也是增強產業鏈供應鏈自主可控能力的關鍵。 據統計，2021年我國新材料總產值有望突破7萬億元。預計2025 年新材料產業總產值實現10萬億。回望過去，我國新材料科技領域取得了長足發展，優秀成果層出不窮。國家“雙碳”目標、“卡脖子”","listText":"4月8日，武漢基金產業基地「創投W+」投融資路演新材料專場順利舉行。本次活動聚焦新材料行業產學研用的深度融合，彙集6個優質項目和多位互動嘉賓線上參與交流和點評，路演項目涉及超級電容器隔膜、生物基“替塑”、AES抗菌抗病毒、高性能電化學水處理等多種新材料，集中展示了新材料領域的優質技術成果和創新應用。 活動前期，我們進行了「創投W+」投融資路演新材料專場活動線上徵集，吸引了來自深創投、鬆禾資本、九鼎投資、青域資本等近20家投資機構的投資人報名參與。會後，基地爲投資人進行了進一步對接，企業與投資人取得了直接聯繫。 活動當天，寧波柔創納米科技有限公司、貴州唯特高新能源科技有限公司、湖北譜萊光電材料有限公司、東部灣（揚州）生物新材料有限公司、浙江楓翎新材料科技有限公司、蘇州碧順環境科技有限公司在此次路演中亮相。6家企業項目各具特色，嘉賓們對項目的營銷策略、資源支持、風險與阻力、發展戰略等方面，提出了專業疑問，項目與機構代表之間形成了良好互動，多個項目獲投資機構青睞。 有項目代表表示，參加本次活動結識了很多投資人，讓他們有機會直接對話資本，探討項目成長路徑，現場思維交流和觀點的碰撞，給企業帶來了創新思考，也讓企業發展更有信心。路演中，武漢的2家本土優質企業受到投資機構的熱切關注，線上提問交流頻繁、會後對接火熱。來自浙江和江蘇的2家路演企業也表明了項目落地的意向。扶持力度大、政策體系全、創新活力足，武漢正以其特有的魅力吸引產業集聚、資本賦能，形成創投活躍的濃厚氛圍。 說到本次產業路演活動的主題，新材料作爲實體經濟的重要內容，是支撐前沿科技及新興產業發展的基石，也是增強產業鏈供應鏈自主可控能力的關鍵。 據統計，2021年我國新材料總產值有望突破7萬億元。預計2025 年新材料產業總產值實現10萬億。回望過去，我國新材料科技領域取得了長足發展，優秀成果層出不窮。國家“雙碳”目標、“卡脖子”","text":"4月8日，武漢基金產業基地「創投W+」投融資路演新材料專場順利舉行。本次活動聚焦新材料行業產學研用的深度融合，彙集6個優質項目和多位互動嘉賓線上參與交流和點評，路演項目涉及超級電容器隔膜、生物基“替塑”、AES抗菌抗病毒、高性能電化學水處理等多種新材料，集中展示了新材料領域的優質技術成果和創新應用。 活動前期，我們進行了「創投W+」投融資路演新材料專場活動線上徵集，吸引了來自深創投、鬆禾資本、九鼎投資、青域資本等近20家投資機構的投資人報名參與。會後，基地爲投資人進行了進一步對接，企業與投資人取得了直接聯繫。 活動當天，寧波柔創納米科技有限公司、貴州唯特高新能源科技有限公司、湖北譜萊光電材料有限公司、東部灣（揚州）生物新材料有限公司、浙江楓翎新材料科技有限公司、蘇州碧順環境科技有限公司在此次路演中亮相。6家企業項目各具特色，嘉賓們對項目的營銷策略、資源支持、風險與阻力、發展戰略等方面，提出了專業疑問，項目與機構代表之間形成了良好互動，多個項目獲投資機構青睞。 有項目代表表示，參加本次活動結識了很多投資人，讓他們有機會直接對話資本，探討項目成長路徑，現場思維交流和觀點的碰撞，給企業帶來了創新思考，也讓企業發展更有信心。路演中，武漢的2家本土優質企業受到投資機構的熱切關注，線上提問交流頻繁、會後對接火熱。來自浙江和江蘇的2家路演企業也表明了項目落地的意向。扶持力度大、政策體系全、創新活力足，武漢正以其特有的魅力吸引產業集聚、資本賦能，形成創投活躍的濃厚氛圍。 說到本次產業路演活動的主題，新材料作爲實體經濟的重要內容，是支撐前沿科技及新興產業發展的基石，也是增強產業鏈供應鏈自主可控能力的關鍵。 據統計，2021年我國新材料總產值有望突破7萬億元。預計2025 年新材料產業總產值實現10萬億。回望過去，我國新材料科技領域取得了長足發展，優秀成果層出不窮。國家“雙碳”目標、“卡脖子”","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/613872623","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"content":"Our efforts will be successful. As long as we persevere, there will be no failure. Come on, everyone","text":"Our efforts will be successful. As long as we persevere, there will be no failure. Come on, everyone","html":"Our efforts will be successful. As long as we persevere, there will be no failure. Come on, everyone"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9006831397,"gmtCreate":1641685819938,"gmtModify":1676533638911,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9006831397","repostId":"1147279991","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147279991","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1641563858,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147279991?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-07 21:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tiger Pre-Market Observation: Non-agricultural data cannot stop the Fed's March rate hike","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147279991","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"盘前观察美股盘前小跌，全球新冠确诊数超过3亿（美国贡献近20%，接近6,000万）。12月非农就业：新增就业不及预期，但失业率好于预期其实现在关注非农就业数据，多多少少有点鸡肋。对于市场参与者，关注宏","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Pre-market observation</b></p><p>U.S. stocks fell slightly before the market opened, and the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide exceeded 300 million (the United States contributed nearly 20%, close to 60 million).</p><p><b>December non-farm payrolls: New jobs fell short of expectations, but unemployment rate was better than expected</b></p><p>In fact, paying attention to non-agricultural employment data now is more or less tasteless. For market participants, the logic of paying attention to macro data is (1) paying attention to macro-economy-> (2) inferring Fed monetary policy-> (3) judging market trends. In fact, this logical chain has always been ineffective. (1) The macroeconomic quality is the basis of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, but the relationship between the two changes; (2) The relationship between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and market trends is even more ambiguous. The market can rise in the rate hike cycle, and the market can also fall during the 0 interest rate period. This is why there are fewer and fewer hedge funds on Wall Street that use \"macro strategy\" as their investment strategy, and the only remaining \"macro strategy\" hedge funds have embarrassing returns.</p><p>Originally, the relationship between (2)-> (3) was very vague, but now the relationship between (1)-> (2) is even more lacking. Regardless of the non-farm payrolls data, the pace of the Fed's rate hike tightening liquidity will definitely not change. That's why I say that paying attention to non-farm payrolls data now is a bit tasteless for market participants.</p><p>December non-farm payrolls data, new jobs +199,000 (expected +450,000), unemployment rate +3.9% (expected +4.1%).</p><p>Like the last analysis of non-farm payrolls data, the real highlights are the other two. The first point to watch is how is Leisure and Hospitality, the slowest growing occupation among the unemployed population, recovering? The second point of view is whether the labor force participation rate, which has been sluggish, has increased.</p><p>\"Leisure and Hospitality\" is still growing in December, but the growth rate is the same as in November, slowing down. The December data incorporates the impact of the pandemic. In general, after nearly two years of COVID-19 torture, some restaurants/hotels/entertainment industries in the United States have chosen to close their doors permanently, which is almost irreversible. To give an example known to Chinese in New York, Jinfeng Restaurant (with 800 seats), a morning tea shop that has existed in Chinatown for 28 years, chose to permanently close its doors in this round of COVID-19.</p><p>The labor force participation rate is the same as last month, still at 61.9%. The delay in recovering the labor participation rate indicates that labor costs are still expensive, which means that the CPI in December will not fall soon. However, I still insist that the CPI in the first quarter of this year will fall rapidly, just like the epidemic data.</p><p>To sum up, although the unemployment rate is better than expected, other data are not satisfactory. However, good or bad data cannot stop the Fed's rate hike in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3202d6698fcff5cf78ea08a7ff55f2da\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p>Moderna (MRNA): CEO Bancel warns that the efficacy of booster shots may decline over time. People may need a fourth shot this fall to boost protection. Currently, the CDC recommends two doses of Moderna COVID-19 vaccine to be given a booster shot 6 months later.</p><p>Quidel (QDEL): It expects fourth-quarter revenue of $633 million to $637 million, higher than market expectations of $466 million. The rise in revenue expectations is mainly due to increased demand for new crown testing and other disease testing.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA): U.S. Model X Plaid starts from $119,990 to $126,490. The reason is that other seat configuration options for this model have been cancelled, all of which are stipulated as a 6-seat configuration priced at $6,500, and delivery is expected to begin in October.</p><p>Tesla (TSLA): It may deliver 15 Semi electric Semi trailers to PepsiCo (PEP) this month. PepsiCo announced in March last year that it would take delivery of the Tesla Semi electric Semi-trailer, and Tesla began producing the vehicle at the Nevada Gigafactory in December last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>(AAPL): CEO Cook's total compensation in 2021 is $98.7 million. Base salary of $3 million and stock-based compensation of $82.34 million will be awarded in time installments, including time-based stocks of $37.5 million and performance-based stocks of $44.8 million.</p><p>SONO: International Trade Commission Ruling<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>(GOOGL) infringed some audio patents on its Nest speakers. Google said it plans to appeal the ruling.</p><p>T-Mobile (TMUS): Net 4Q paying subscriber gain of 844,000, missing consensus of 868,000. The total number of new users in 2021 was approximately 2.9 million.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>(NYT): Announced the $550 million acquisition of sports news site The Athletic. The Athletic has more than 1 million subscribers. It is expected that the transaction will be completed in the first quarter, and the website will remain an independent project in the future. At present, the new york Times has more than 8 million subscribers.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CZR\">Caesars Entertainment</a>(CZR) & DraftKings (DKNG): The New York State Gaming Commission announced that four companies can conduct mobile sports betting operations in New York. Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Rush Street Interactive can start operating mobile sportsbooks on Saturday morning.</p><p><b>other</b></p><p>Worldwide, 300,451,850 (+1,966,759) confirmed cases and 5,474,348 (+6,143) deaths.</p><p>The United States has 58,487,940 (+610,989) confirmed cases and 833,989 (+1,404) deaths.</p><p>New York has 3,890,666 (+84,202) confirmed cases and 60,166 (+130) deaths.</p><p>The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 199,000 in December, compared with expectations of 447,000 and the previous value of 210,000.</p><p>The US CDC director will hold a press conference at 11 o'clock, after six Biden public health advisers during the presidential transition published articles calling on the Biden administration to adopt a new protest strategy to adapt to coexistence with the virus rather than completely eliminate it.</p><p>Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida's stock trading behavior at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic caused new controversy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568899c19bad5bedd5f1532327af0500\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"89\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Pre-Market Observation: Non-agricultural data cannot stop the Fed's March rate hike</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Pre-Market Observation: Non-agricultural data cannot stop the Fed's March rate hike\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-07 21:57</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Pre-market observation</b></p><p>U.S. stocks fell slightly before the market opened, and the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide exceeded 300 million (the United States contributed nearly 20%, close to 60 million).</p><p><b>December non-farm payrolls: New jobs fell short of expectations, but unemployment rate was better than expected</b></p><p>In fact, paying attention to non-agricultural employment data now is more or less tasteless. For market participants, the logic of paying attention to macro data is (1) paying attention to macro-economy-> (2) inferring Fed monetary policy-> (3) judging market trends. In fact, this logical chain has always been ineffective. (1) The macroeconomic quality is the basis of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, but the relationship between the two changes; (2) The relationship between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and market trends is even more ambiguous. The market can rise in the rate hike cycle, and the market can also fall during the 0 interest rate period. This is why there are fewer and fewer hedge funds on Wall Street that use \"macro strategy\" as their investment strategy, and the only remaining \"macro strategy\" hedge funds have embarrassing returns.</p><p>Originally, the relationship between (2)-> (3) was very vague, but now the relationship between (1)-> (2) is even more lacking. Regardless of the non-farm payrolls data, the pace of the Fed's rate hike tightening liquidity will definitely not change. That's why I say that paying attention to non-farm payrolls data now is a bit tasteless for market participants.</p><p>December non-farm payrolls data, new jobs +199,000 (expected +450,000), unemployment rate +3.9% (expected +4.1%).</p><p>Like the last analysis of non-farm payrolls data, the real highlights are the other two. The first point to watch is how is Leisure and Hospitality, the slowest growing occupation among the unemployed population, recovering? The second point of view is whether the labor force participation rate, which has been sluggish, has increased.</p><p>\"Leisure and Hospitality\" is still growing in December, but the growth rate is the same as in November, slowing down. The December data incorporates the impact of the pandemic. In general, after nearly two years of COVID-19 torture, some restaurants/hotels/entertainment industries in the United States have chosen to close their doors permanently, which is almost irreversible. To give an example known to Chinese in New York, Jinfeng Restaurant (with 800 seats), a morning tea shop that has existed in Chinatown for 28 years, chose to permanently close its doors in this round of COVID-19.</p><p>The labor force participation rate is the same as last month, still at 61.9%. The delay in recovering the labor participation rate indicates that labor costs are still expensive, which means that the CPI in December will not fall soon. However, I still insist that the CPI in the first quarter of this year will fall rapidly, just like the epidemic data.</p><p>To sum up, although the unemployment rate is better than expected, other data are not satisfactory. However, good or bad data cannot stop the Fed's rate hike in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3202d6698fcff5cf78ea08a7ff55f2da\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p>Moderna (MRNA): CEO Bancel warns that the efficacy of booster shots may decline over time. People may need a fourth shot this fall to boost protection. Currently, the CDC recommends two doses of Moderna COVID-19 vaccine to be given a booster shot 6 months later.</p><p>Quidel (QDEL): It expects fourth-quarter revenue of $633 million to $637 million, higher than market expectations of $466 million. The rise in revenue expectations is mainly due to increased demand for new crown testing and other disease testing.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA): U.S. Model X Plaid starts from $119,990 to $126,490. The reason is that other seat configuration options for this model have been cancelled, all of which are stipulated as a 6-seat configuration priced at $6,500, and delivery is expected to begin in October.</p><p>Tesla (TSLA): It may deliver 15 Semi electric Semi trailers to PepsiCo (PEP) this month. PepsiCo announced in March last year that it would take delivery of the Tesla Semi electric Semi-trailer, and Tesla began producing the vehicle at the Nevada Gigafactory in December last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>(AAPL): CEO Cook's total compensation in 2021 is $98.7 million. Base salary of $3 million and stock-based compensation of $82.34 million will be awarded in time installments, including time-based stocks of $37.5 million and performance-based stocks of $44.8 million.</p><p>SONO: International Trade Commission Ruling<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>(GOOGL) infringed some audio patents on its Nest speakers. Google said it plans to appeal the ruling.</p><p>T-Mobile (TMUS): Net 4Q paying subscriber gain of 844,000, missing consensus of 868,000. The total number of new users in 2021 was approximately 2.9 million.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>(NYT): Announced the $550 million acquisition of sports news site The Athletic. The Athletic has more than 1 million subscribers. It is expected that the transaction will be completed in the first quarter, and the website will remain an independent project in the future. At present, the new york Times has more than 8 million subscribers.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CZR\">Caesars Entertainment</a>(CZR) & DraftKings (DKNG): The New York State Gaming Commission announced that four companies can conduct mobile sports betting operations in New York. Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Rush Street Interactive can start operating mobile sportsbooks on Saturday morning.</p><p><b>other</b></p><p>Worldwide, 300,451,850 (+1,966,759) confirmed cases and 5,474,348 (+6,143) deaths.</p><p>The United States has 58,487,940 (+610,989) confirmed cases and 833,989 (+1,404) deaths.</p><p>New York has 3,890,666 (+84,202) confirmed cases and 60,166 (+130) deaths.</p><p>The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 199,000 in December, compared with expectations of 447,000 and the previous value of 210,000.</p><p>The US CDC director will hold a press conference at 11 o'clock, after six Biden public health advisers during the presidential transition published articles calling on the Biden administration to adopt a new protest strategy to adapt to coexistence with the virus rather than completely eliminate it.</p><p>Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida's stock trading behavior at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic caused new controversy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568899c19bad5bedd5f1532327af0500\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"89\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"518880":"黄金ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147279991","content_text":"盘前观察美股盘前小跌，全球新冠确诊数超过3亿（美国贡献近20%，接近6,000万）。12月非农就业：新增就业不及预期，但失业率好于预期其实现在关注非农就业数据，多多少少有点鸡肋。对于市场参与者，关注宏观数据的逻辑是（1）关注宏观经济->（2）推断美联储货币政策->（3）判断市场走势。其实这个逻辑链条一直以来都不太有效，（1）宏观经济好坏是美联储货币政策的依据，但两者的关系变来变去；（2）美联储货币政策和市场走势的关系就更模糊了，加息周期市场可以涨，0利率期间市场也可以跌。这也就是为何当下华尔街以“宏观策略”作为投资策略的对冲基金越来越少，而仅存的“宏观策略”对冲基金收益都比较尴尬。原来（2）->（3）的关系就很模糊，现在（1）->（2）的关系就更缺乏了。不管非农就业数据怎么样，美联储加息收紧流动性的步伐绝对不会改变。这就是我为何说现在关注非农就业数据，对于市场参与者有点鸡肋的原因。12月非农就业数据，新增就业+199,000（预期+450,000），失业率+3.9%（预期+4.1%）。和上次非农就业数据分析一样，其实真正的看点是另外两个。第一个看点，失业人口中增长最缓慢的职业“Leisure and Hospitality”（酒店餐馆服务业）恢复得怎么样？第二个看点，就是持续低迷的劳动参与率有没有提高。“Leisure and Hospitality”12月仍在增长，但增速和11月一样，慢下来了。12月的数据包含了疫情的影响。总的来说，经过近两年新冠的折磨，美国有的餐馆/酒店/娱乐行业已经选择了永久关门，这一点几乎不可逆。举一个纽约华人知道的例子，在唐人街存在了28年的早茶店金丰大酒楼（拥有800个座位），在这一轮新冠中选择了永久关门。劳动参与率和上个月一样，依旧是61.9%。劳动参与率迟迟不能恢复，就预示了劳动力成本依然贵，也就说明12月的CPI不会很快回落。不过我还是坚持认为，今年1季度的CPI，会迅速回落，和疫情数据一样。总结一下，尽管失业率比预期的好，但其它数据都不尽如人意。不过数据好或者不好，都不能阻挡美联储3月加息。公司新闻Moderna(MRNA)：CEO Bancel警告称，加强针的功效可能会随着时间推移而下降。人们可能需要在今年秋季注射第四针以增强保护。目前CDC建议注射两剂Moderna新冠疫苗6个月后注射加强针。Quidel(QDEL)：预计4季度营收$6.33亿至$6.37亿，高于市场预期$4.66亿。营收预期上涨主要受益于新冠检测和其他疾病检测的需求增加。特斯拉(TSLA)：美国Model X Plaid起价从$119,990升至$126,490。原因是取消了该车型的其他座椅配置选择，均规定为价格$6,500的6座配置，预计10月开始交付。特斯拉(TSLA)：本月或将向百事(PEP)交付15辆Semi电动半挂车。百事去年3月宣布将接收特斯拉Semi电动半挂车，特斯拉去年12月开始在内华达超级工厂生产这款车。苹果(AAPL)：CEO库克2021年总薪酬$9,870万。基本工资$300万，股票报酬$8,234万，将按时间分期授予，包括基于时间的股票$3,750万和基于绩效的股票$4,480万。索诺声(SONO)：国际贸易委员会裁定谷歌(GOOGL)侵犯了其Nest扬声器的部分音频专利。谷歌表示计划对该裁决提起上诉。T-Mobile(TMUS)：4季度付费用户净增844,000个，低于市场预期868,000个。2021年新增用户总数约为290万。纽约时报(NYT)：宣布以$5.5亿收购体育新闻网站The Athletic。The Athletic拥有超过100万订阅用户，预计交易会在1季度完成，后续该网站将仍是独立项目。目前纽约时报拥有超过800万订阅用户。凯撒娱乐(CZR) & DraftKings(DKNG)：纽约州博彩委员会宣布4家公司可在纽约开展移动端的体育博彩业务。凯撒、DraftKings、FanDuel和Rush Street Interactive可在周六上午开始运营移动端体育博彩。其它全球确诊300,451,850(+1,966,759)例，死亡5,474,348(+6,143)例。美国确诊58,487,940(+610,989)例，死亡833,989(+1,404)例。纽约州确诊3,890,666(+84,202)例，死亡60,166(+130)例。美国12月非农就业人口增加19.9万，预期44.7万，前值21万。美CDC主管将于11点召开新闻发布会，此前拜登6位在总统交接时期公共卫生顾问发表文章，呼吁拜登政府采取新的抗议策略，适应与病毒共存而非彻底消除病毒。美联储副主席Clarida在新冠疫情爆发初期的股票交易行为引发新的争议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"518880":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"SImain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014423797,"gmtCreate":1649712832480,"gmtModify":1676534553309,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014423797","repostId":"2226688741","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2226688741","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1649691182,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2226688741?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-11 23:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Four major differences between European and American high inflation engines","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2226688741","media":"格隆汇","summary":"主要观点自2021下半年以来，欧美持续面临高通胀压力，CPI同比急速上升。今年2月受俄乌局势升级影响，欧美CPI同比再创历史新高，持续高通胀压力下，欧美央行均转鹰。但欧美通胀压力来源具有明显差异，美国","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Main views</b></p><p><b>Since the second half of 2021, Europe and the United States have continued to face high inflationary pressures, and the CPI has risen rapidly year-on-year. Affected by the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine in February this year, the CPI in Europe and the United States hit a record high year-on-year. Under the pressure of continued high inflation, both European and American central banks turned hawkish. However, there are obvious differences in the sources of inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States. Inflation in the United States is \"blooming at multiple points\", but the euro zone is \"energy inflation\", that is, the pressure facing inflation in the United States is the general increase in prices of various goods and services; The vast majority of inflation in the euro zone comes from energy. Considering that energy price increases are mainly affected by supply factors, it shows that inflationary pressures in the euro zone come more from external supply shocks than from strong demand caused by rapid economic recovery. The general price increase in the United States shows that its inflationary pressures are limited by supply-side bottlenecks (such as rising energy prices) and driven by strong internal demand for durable goods and services. Therefore, in comparison, the \"resistance\" of internal demand in the United States to rate hike is stronger than that of the euro zone, and the euro zone may face greater risk of economic recession.</b></p><p><b>1. What are the similarities and differences between HICP and CPI?</b></p><p><b>In terms of compilation method,</b>The U.S. CPI only considers urban consumers; Secondly, in terms of weight adjustment, the weights of goods and services in the HICP basket of the euro zone are adjusted once a year, while the weights of goods and services in the CPI basket of the United States are adjusted every two years.</p><p><b>In terms of the weight of the consumption basket,</b>The weight of services in inflation indicators in Europe and the United States is higher than that of commodities, showing that the economic characteristics of Europe and the United States are dominated by service consumption, and the weight of services in the United States is significantly higher than that in the euro zone, about 18.3 percentage points higher. Among commodity weights, the gap between European and American food weights is the largest. The HICP food weight in the euro zone is 8.8 percentage points higher than that in the United States, followed by non-energy industrial products. Europe is 5.6 percentage points higher than that in the United States, and the energy weight in Europe is 3.9 percentage points higher than that in the United States.</p><p><b>2. How to compare inflation sources in Europe and the United States?</b></p><p><b>Due to the differences in the classification of inflation indicators in Europe and the United States, in order to facilitate comparison, we split them according to the idea of core and non-core inflation.</b>Eurostat divides the HICP of the euro zone into four major items-food, energy, non-energy industrial products and services, which can be matched with food, energy, commodities (excluding food and energy) and services (excluding energy) in the US CPI classification. Therefore, we first make a preliminary comparison of the inflation structure of the United States and Europe according to the four categories of food, energy, non-energy industrial products and services.</p><p><b>3. Four major differences in inflation \"engines\" in Europe and the United States</b></p><p><b>One of the differences: rising energy prices play an almost decisive role in high inflation in Europe, and the United States \"blossoms more\".</b>For the euro area, energy drove 3.2% year-on-year in February, accounting for 53.5% of the HICP year-on-year; In addition to energy, food, non-energy industrial products, and services in the United States \"worked together\", contributing 14.1%, 31.5%, and 33% year-on-year in February, respectively, totaling 78.6%.</p><p><b>The second difference: food prices in the euro zone are rising faster.</b>Due to the higher proportion of food in the inflation structure of the euro zone, food prices in the euro zone have risen faster since the end of 2021.</p><p><b>The third difference: durable goods in the United States generally rose, while the price increase of other durable goods in the euro zone was not obvious except for automobile prices.</b></p><p><b>The fourth difference: services are the biggest driver of U.S. CPI year-on-year, with rent contribution \"outstanding\", while services in the euro zone have a smaller increase.</b></p><p><b>To sum up, the biggest difference in the sources of inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States is that the Eurozone mainly experiences inflation driven up by commodity prices, while the United States generally experiences price increases: ① It can be seen from differences one and two that,</b>Inflation in the euro zone is more obviously dominated by external supply shocks. The pressure of energy and food price increases mainly comes from the external supply side, while energy contributes more than 50% of the high inflation in the euro zone. Recently, food has also shown a higher price increase rate than that in the United States.<b>② The difference between three and four may indicate that,</b>The inflationary pressure brought about by stronger internal demand in the euro zone is not great. In terms of durable goods, durable goods in the United States show general upward pressure, while the euro zone is only driven by automobiles. In terms of services, service inflation in the United States has the strongest overall driver of inflation, while the euro zone is facing higher pressure on transportation service price increases, and the price increase of transportation services is also related to rising energy prices. This difference may indicate that compared with the United States, the internal demand in the euro zone is weaker, and the inflationary pressure driven by demand is not great.</p><p><b>Risk warning: U.S. inflation rises higher than expected</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p><h3>one</h3><h3>Europe and the United States: the same high inflation pressure, different sources of pressure</h3><b>Since the second half of 2021, Europe and the United States have continued to face high inflationary pressures, and the CPI has risen rapidly year-on-year.</b>Affected by the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine in February this year, the CPI in Europe and the United States hit a record high year-on-year, reaching highs of 5.9% and 7.9% respectively; The month-on-month average was +0.9%, especially the euro zone was greatly affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points in February compared with January.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/344210b70f6a8e7f8063ad61f98c749f\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Under the pressure of continued high inflation, European and American central banks have turned hawkish.</b>In the euro zone, the European Central Bank raised inflation expectations across the board at the March interest rate meeting and announced that it would end the bond purchase program (APP) at a faster speed, which once again exceeded expectations and turned hawkish compared with the February meeting. On March 17, President Christine Lagarde also stated in her speech that \"the inflation level in the euro zone is unlikely to return to the level before the epidemic. The European Central Bank has begun to adjust policies in order to further promote policy normalization when necessary conditions are met.\", indicating that under high inflationary pressure, the European Central Bank is being \"forced\" to change its attitude. In the United States, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March also made it clear that one or more interest rate meetings in the future may have a rate hike of 50bps, and a shrinking balance sheet may be launched as early as May.</p><p><b>However, there are obvious differences in the sources of inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States. Inflation in the United States is \"blooming more\", but the euro zone is \"energy inflation\"</b>That is, the pressure on inflation in the United States is the general increase in prices of various goods and services; The vast majority of inflation in the euro zone comes from energy. Considering that energy price increases are mainly affected by supply factors, it shows that inflationary pressures in the euro zone come more from external supply shocks than from strong demand caused by rapid economic recovery. The general price increase in the United States shows that its inflationary pressures are limited by supply-side bottlenecks (such as rising energy prices) and driven by strong internal demand for durable goods and services. Therefore, in comparison,<b>The \"resistance\" of internal demand in the United States to rate hike is stronger than that of the euro zone, and the euro zone may face greater risk of economic recession.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56c39847928266470c03e9819fe7d45d\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b767cc36d9c22ec7a31d451cb1b6220b\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(1) What are the similarities and differences between HICP and CPI?</b></p><p><b>Before comparing the sources of inflation in Europe and the United States, first compare the similarities and differences of inflation indicators in Europe and the United States.</b>This report selects US CPI and Eurozone HICP indicators to characterize their respective inflation levels. For details of the basic situation of CPI indicators in the United States, please refer to the report \"Shrinkage or Inflation-Search and Prospect of Long-term and Short-term Dual Frameworks of Inflation in the United States & Number Theory Economy Series 11\". This report mainly introduces the inflation indicator HICP in the euro zone.</p><p>The full name of HICP is TheHarmonised Index of Consumer Prices, translated as Harmonised CPI. It is a consumer price index compiled by EU member states according to unified standards. The purpose is to make the price indexes of each member state comparable and can be summed up to obtain the consumer price index of the euro zone.</p><p>The comparison shows that there are mainly the following differences between HICP in the euro zone and CPI in the United States:</p><p><b>1. In terms of preparation methods,</b>First of all, in sample selection, the euro zone HICP tries to include rural consumers in the sample, while the US CPI only considers urban consumers; Secondly, in terms of weight adjustment, the weights of goods and services in the HICP basket of the euro zone are adjusted once a year, while the weights of goods and services in the CPI basket of the United States are adjusted every two years.</p><p><b>2. Weight of consumption basket</b>According to the caliber of core and non-core inflation, the weight of services in the inflation indicators of Europe and the United States is higher than the weight of commodities, showing that the economic characteristics of Europe and the United States are dominated by service consumption, and the weight of services in the United States is significantly higher than that of the euro zone, about 18.3 percentage points higher; Among commodity weights, the gap between European and American food weights is the largest. The HICP food weight in the euro zone is 8.8 percentage points higher than that in the United States, followed by non-energy industrial products. Europe is 5.6 percentage points higher than that in the United States, and the energy weight in Europe is 3.9 percentage points higher than that in the United States.<b>Considering that due to the recent impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of commodities such as energy and grain have risen sharply, the relatively higher food and energy weight in the European HICP consumer basket means that the euro zone will face higher food and energy inflationary pressures.</b></p><p>According to the subdivision of the consumption basket, according to the types of goods and services consumed, the HICP of the euro zone is divided into 12 categories, while the CPI of the United States includes 8 categories (see Figure 6 for details). Among them: the residential weight in the US CPI is significantly higher than the residential weight in the European HICP, which is about 19.7 percentage points higher. This is also the main source of the huge gap in service weights in Europe and the United States. The main reason may be that the Eurozone HICP does not include the estimated rent of Owner-occupied Housing, while the US CPI includes the Owner-occupied Housing part, which is recorded as \"Owners' EquivalentRent of Residences\".<b>However, the food and beverage in the European HICP is much higher than the US CPI.</b>About 11.3 percentage points higher, corresponding to the fact that the weight of food categories in the European HICP is much higher than that in the US CPI.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10abae6b02802e2a49078b647aa7933c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1abf1b276517940750f8668383b952c\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(2) How to compare inflation sources in Europe and the United States?</b></p><p><b>Due to the differences in the classification of inflation indicators in Europe and the United States, in order to facilitate comparison, we split them according to the idea of core and non-core inflation.</b>Eurostat divides the HICP of the euro zone into four major items-food, energy, non-energy industrial products and services, which can be matched with food, energy, commodities (excluding food and energy) and services (excluding energy) in the US CPI classification. Therefore, we first make a preliminary comparison of the inflation structure of the United States and Europe according to the four categories of food, energy, non-energy industrial products and services.</p><p>In order to further refine the differences in inflation structures between the United States and Europe,<b>We further split non-energy industrial products into durable goods and non-durable goods.</b>These two sub-items are included in the classification of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, so they do not need to be adjusted; For the euro area, durable goods and semi-durable goods in the official classification are combined as \"durable goods\", and \"non-durable goods\" is not adjusted.<b>For durable goods, automobiles and other durable goods are further split.</b>The classification of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics includes the automobile sub-item, so it does not need to be adjusted; For the euro area, motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts in the official classification are aggregated as automobiles.</p><p><b>The services are further split into four items: transportation services, leisure and entertainment services, rent and others.</b>For the euro area, the first two items are the contents of the official Eurostat classification and do not need to be adjusted; The rent is equal to the actual rent + catering and accommodation services in hotels; The first three items are subtracted from other service items, including communication services, etc. For the United States, transportation services, leisure and entertainment services, and rent are all contents in the official classification of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and do not need to be adjusted; Others can also be obtained by squeezing backwards. See the table below for specific classification details. After unifying the inflation caliber of the United States and Europe, we can compare the inflation structure of the United States and Europe.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cc47ade54035315be60678571cf2b38\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(3) Four major differences between inflation \"engines\" in Europe and the United States</b></p><p><b>One of the differences: rising energy prices play an almost decisive role in high inflation in Europe, while the United States \"blooms more\".</b>For the euro zone, energy contributed 3.2% to the year-on-year growth rate of HICP in February, and its contribution rate reached 53.5%; For the United States, energy contributed 1.7% to the year-on-year CPI growth rate in February, and contributed 21.3%; In addition to energy, food, non-energy industrial products, and services \"worked together\", contributing 14.1%, 31.5%, and 33% to the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in February, respectively, totaling 78.6%, indicating that the high inflation in the United States is \"Multiple blossoms\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cdc2cbdff201692fddf827873b203c5\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The second difference: food prices in the euro zone are rising faster.</b>Since the end of 2021, food prices in the euro zone have risen faster. As of February this year, the year-on-year pull rates of food price increases on inflation in Europe and the United States were 1% and 1.1% respectively. However, from the perspective of changing trends, because commodities account for a higher proportion of inflation in the euro zone, food prices have brought greater upward pressure on inflation in the euro zone.</p><p><b>The third difference: the price of durable goods in the United States generally rises, while the price of other durable goods in the euro zone is not obvious except for the price increase of automobiles.</b>From the absolute level of pull rate, the price increase of durable goods in the United States in February boosted the CPI by 2.1% year-on-year, while it was only 0.4% in the euro zone. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the price increase of durable goods in the euro zone has continued to be much smaller than that in the United States. In terms of structure, for Europe and the United States, automobiles are the main driving force for the price increase of durable goods. In February, the year-on-year driving force of European and American automobiles was 1.7% and 0.42% respectively, and their contribution to the price increase of durable goods in Europe and the United States was 80% and 103% respectively. In addition to the price increase of automobiles in the United States, other durable goods also have upward pressure on prices, which may indicate that the internal demand in the United States is strong, resulting in general upward pressure on durable goods prices; In the euro zone, in addition to the increase in automobile prices caused by supply-side factors such as \"core shortage\", the prices of other durable goods are falling instead, which may imply that the internal demand in the euro zone is not strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583f5b9b134cdafe34123c218690e477\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/077db96d692e97d750ebdb8e494c25c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The fourth difference: services are the biggest driver of U.S. CPI year-on-year, with rent contribution \"outstanding\", while services in the euro zone have a smaller increase, with leisure and entertainment services contributing the most.</b>In February, the U.S. CPI service sub-item contributed 2.6% year-on-year to overall inflation, and contributed 33% year-on-year to CPI, the highest among the four major sub-items (food, energy, non-energy industrial products, and services), while the euro zone The contribution rate of service price increases is only 17%. From a structural point of view, in the United States, the price increase of services is mainly due to the increase of rent. In addition, the price increase of transportation services also contributed to a certain extent. In February, the year-on-year boost of rent and transportation services to overall inflation recorded 1.6% and 0.3% respectively. The contribution rates of service price increases are 60% and 13% respectively; In the euro zone, leisure and entertainment services are the main driving force for service price increases. In February, the year-on-year pull rate of CPI was 0.4%, and the contribution rate of service price increases was 42%. Rents remained almost unchanged, and transportation services also contributed to a certain extent. In February, the contribution rate of service price increases was 19%, which was larger than that of the United States. The price increase of transportation services is also mainly limited by supply-side factors. On the one hand, the price increase of energy pushes up costs; on the other hand, the epidemic has led to a shortage of transportation employees, pushing up wage costs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f0d6068eff414c3598852b9b181e09\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7479eede35f1ec5b02a41335d9ce8753\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>To sum up, through comparison, it can be found that the biggest difference in the sources of inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States is that the euro zone mainly has inflation pushed up by commodity prices, while the United States has generally rising prices. More specifically:</b></p><p><b>First, it can be seen from the differences one and two that inflation in the euro zone is more obviously dominated by external supply shocks.</b>The pressure on energy and food price increases mainly comes from the external supply side, and energy contributes more than 50% to the high inflation in the euro zone. Recently, food has also shown a higher price increase rate than the United States.</p><p><b>Second, the difference three and four may indicate that the inflationary pressure brought by stronger internal demand in the euro zone is not great.</b>In terms of durable goods, durable goods in the United States showed general upward pressure, while the euro zone was only driven by automobiles. In terms of services, service inflation in the United States has the strongest overall driver of inflation, while the euro zone is facing higher pressure on transportation service price increases, and the price increase of transportation services is also related to rising energy prices. This difference may indicate that compared with the United States, the internal demand in the euro zone is weaker, and the inflationary pressure driven by demand is not great.</p><p><b>Considering that this round of accelerated tightening by the central banks of the United States and Europe is affected by inflation, compared with the United States, inflation in the euro zone mainly comes from external supply shocks, and internal demand is not overheated. Therefore, after the monetary policy is tightened, domestic demand in the United States may still be able to \"carry\" for a period of time, while internal demand in the euro zone may be more affected by monetary tightening, and it is more likely to fall into the risk of slowing economic growth.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Four major differences between European and American high inflation engines</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFour major differences between European and American high inflation engines\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-11 23:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Main views</b></p><p><b>Since the second half of 2021, Europe and the United States have continued to face high inflationary pressures, and the CPI has risen rapidly year-on-year. Affected by the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine in February this year, the CPI in Europe and the United States hit a record high year-on-year. Under the pressure of continued high inflation, both European and American central banks turned hawkish. However, there are obvious differences in the sources of inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States. Inflation in the United States is \"blooming at multiple points\", but the euro zone is \"energy inflation\", that is, the pressure facing inflation in the United States is the general increase in prices of various goods and services; The vast majority of inflation in the euro zone comes from energy. Considering that energy price increases are mainly affected by supply factors, it shows that inflationary pressures in the euro zone come more from external supply shocks than from strong demand caused by rapid economic recovery. The general price increase in the United States shows that its inflationary pressures are limited by supply-side bottlenecks (such as rising energy prices) and driven by strong internal demand for durable goods and services. Therefore, in comparison, the \"resistance\" of internal demand in the United States to rate hike is stronger than that of the euro zone, and the euro zone may face greater risk of economic recession.</b></p><p><b>1. What are the similarities and differences between HICP and CPI?</b></p><p><b>In terms of compilation method,</b>The U.S. CPI only considers urban consumers; Secondly, in terms of weight adjustment, the weights of goods and services in the HICP basket of the euro zone are adjusted once a year, while the weights of goods and services in the CPI basket of the United States are adjusted every two years.</p><p><b>In terms of the weight of the consumption basket,</b>The weight of services in inflation indicators in Europe and the United States is higher than that of commodities, showing that the economic characteristics of Europe and the United States are dominated by service consumption, and the weight of services in the United States is significantly higher than that in the euro zone, about 18.3 percentage points higher. Among commodity weights, the gap between European and American food weights is the largest. The HICP food weight in the euro zone is 8.8 percentage points higher than that in the United States, followed by non-energy industrial products. Europe is 5.6 percentage points higher than that in the United States, and the energy weight in Europe is 3.9 percentage points higher than that in the United States.</p><p><b>2. How to compare inflation sources in Europe and the United States?</b></p><p><b>Due to the differences in the classification of inflation indicators in Europe and the United States, in order to facilitate comparison, we split them according to the idea of core and non-core inflation.</b>Eurostat divides the HICP of the euro zone into four major items-food, energy, non-energy industrial products and services, which can be matched with food, energy, commodities (excluding food and energy) and services (excluding energy) in the US CPI classification. Therefore, we first make a preliminary comparison of the inflation structure of the United States and Europe according to the four categories of food, energy, non-energy industrial products and services.</p><p><b>3. Four major differences in inflation \"engines\" in Europe and the United States</b></p><p><b>One of the differences: rising energy prices play an almost decisive role in high inflation in Europe, and the United States \"blossoms more\".</b>For the euro area, energy drove 3.2% year-on-year in February, accounting for 53.5% of the HICP year-on-year; In addition to energy, food, non-energy industrial products, and services in the United States \"worked together\", contributing 14.1%, 31.5%, and 33% year-on-year in February, respectively, totaling 78.6%.</p><p><b>The second difference: food prices in the euro zone are rising faster.</b>Due to the higher proportion of food in the inflation structure of the euro zone, food prices in the euro zone have risen faster since the end of 2021.</p><p><b>The third difference: durable goods in the United States generally rose, while the price increase of other durable goods in the euro zone was not obvious except for automobile prices.</b></p><p><b>The fourth difference: services are the biggest driver of U.S. CPI year-on-year, with rent contribution \"outstanding\", while services in the euro zone have a smaller increase.</b></p><p><b>To sum up, the biggest difference in the sources of inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States is that the Eurozone mainly experiences inflation driven up by commodity prices, while the United States generally experiences price increases: ① It can be seen from differences one and two that,</b>Inflation in the euro zone is more obviously dominated by external supply shocks. The pressure of energy and food price increases mainly comes from the external supply side, while energy contributes more than 50% of the high inflation in the euro zone. Recently, food has also shown a higher price increase rate than that in the United States.<b>② The difference between three and four may indicate that,</b>The inflationary pressure brought about by stronger internal demand in the euro zone is not great. In terms of durable goods, durable goods in the United States show general upward pressure, while the euro zone is only driven by automobiles. In terms of services, service inflation in the United States has the strongest overall driver of inflation, while the euro zone is facing higher pressure on transportation service price increases, and the price increase of transportation services is also related to rising energy prices. This difference may indicate that compared with the United States, the internal demand in the euro zone is weaker, and the inflationary pressure driven by demand is not great.</p><p><b>Risk warning: U.S. inflation rises higher than expected</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p><h3>one</h3><h3>Europe and the United States: the same high inflation pressure, different sources of pressure</h3><b>Since the second half of 2021, Europe and the United States have continued to face high inflationary pressures, and the CPI has risen rapidly year-on-year.</b>Affected by the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine in February this year, the CPI in Europe and the United States hit a record high year-on-year, reaching highs of 5.9% and 7.9% respectively; The month-on-month average was +0.9%, especially the euro zone was greatly affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points in February compared with January.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/344210b70f6a8e7f8063ad61f98c749f\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Under the pressure of continued high inflation, European and American central banks have turned hawkish.</b>In the euro zone, the European Central Bank raised inflation expectations across the board at the March interest rate meeting and announced that it would end the bond purchase program (APP) at a faster speed, which once again exceeded expectations and turned hawkish compared with the February meeting. On March 17, President Christine Lagarde also stated in her speech that \"the inflation level in the euro zone is unlikely to return to the level before the epidemic. The European Central Bank has begun to adjust policies in order to further promote policy normalization when necessary conditions are met.\", indicating that under high inflationary pressure, the European Central Bank is being \"forced\" to change its attitude. In the United States, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March also made it clear that one or more interest rate meetings in the future may have a rate hike of 50bps, and a shrinking balance sheet may be launched as early as May.</p><p><b>However, there are obvious differences in the sources of inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States. Inflation in the United States is \"blooming more\", but the euro zone is \"energy inflation\"</b>That is, the pressure on inflation in the United States is the general increase in prices of various goods and services; The vast majority of inflation in the euro zone comes from energy. Considering that energy price increases are mainly affected by supply factors, it shows that inflationary pressures in the euro zone come more from external supply shocks than from strong demand caused by rapid economic recovery. The general price increase in the United States shows that its inflationary pressures are limited by supply-side bottlenecks (such as rising energy prices) and driven by strong internal demand for durable goods and services. Therefore, in comparison,<b>The \"resistance\" of internal demand in the United States to rate hike is stronger than that of the euro zone, and the euro zone may face greater risk of economic recession.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56c39847928266470c03e9819fe7d45d\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b767cc36d9c22ec7a31d451cb1b6220b\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(1) What are the similarities and differences between HICP and CPI?</b></p><p><b>Before comparing the sources of inflation in Europe and the United States, first compare the similarities and differences of inflation indicators in Europe and the United States.</b>This report selects US CPI and Eurozone HICP indicators to characterize their respective inflation levels. For details of the basic situation of CPI indicators in the United States, please refer to the report \"Shrinkage or Inflation-Search and Prospect of Long-term and Short-term Dual Frameworks of Inflation in the United States & Number Theory Economy Series 11\". This report mainly introduces the inflation indicator HICP in the euro zone.</p><p>The full name of HICP is TheHarmonised Index of Consumer Prices, translated as Harmonised CPI. It is a consumer price index compiled by EU member states according to unified standards. The purpose is to make the price indexes of each member state comparable and can be summed up to obtain the consumer price index of the euro zone.</p><p>The comparison shows that there are mainly the following differences between HICP in the euro zone and CPI in the United States:</p><p><b>1. In terms of preparation methods,</b>First of all, in sample selection, the euro zone HICP tries to include rural consumers in the sample, while the US CPI only considers urban consumers; Secondly, in terms of weight adjustment, the weights of goods and services in the HICP basket of the euro zone are adjusted once a year, while the weights of goods and services in the CPI basket of the United States are adjusted every two years.</p><p><b>2. Weight of consumption basket</b>According to the caliber of core and non-core inflation, the weight of services in the inflation indicators of Europe and the United States is higher than the weight of commodities, showing that the economic characteristics of Europe and the United States are dominated by service consumption, and the weight of services in the United States is significantly higher than that of the euro zone, about 18.3 percentage points higher; Among commodity weights, the gap between European and American food weights is the largest. The HICP food weight in the euro zone is 8.8 percentage points higher than that in the United States, followed by non-energy industrial products. Europe is 5.6 percentage points higher than that in the United States, and the energy weight in Europe is 3.9 percentage points higher than that in the United States.<b>Considering that due to the recent impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of commodities such as energy and grain have risen sharply, the relatively higher food and energy weight in the European HICP consumer basket means that the euro zone will face higher food and energy inflationary pressures.</b></p><p>According to the subdivision of the consumption basket, according to the types of goods and services consumed, the HICP of the euro zone is divided into 12 categories, while the CPI of the United States includes 8 categories (see Figure 6 for details). Among them: the residential weight in the US CPI is significantly higher than the residential weight in the European HICP, which is about 19.7 percentage points higher. This is also the main source of the huge gap in service weights in Europe and the United States. The main reason may be that the Eurozone HICP does not include the estimated rent of Owner-occupied Housing, while the US CPI includes the Owner-occupied Housing part, which is recorded as \"Owners' EquivalentRent of Residences\".<b>However, the food and beverage in the European HICP is much higher than the US CPI.</b>About 11.3 percentage points higher, corresponding to the fact that the weight of food categories in the European HICP is much higher than that in the US CPI.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10abae6b02802e2a49078b647aa7933c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1abf1b276517940750f8668383b952c\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(2) How to compare inflation sources in Europe and the United States?</b></p><p><b>Due to the differences in the classification of inflation indicators in Europe and the United States, in order to facilitate comparison, we split them according to the idea of core and non-core inflation.</b>Eurostat divides the HICP of the euro zone into four major items-food, energy, non-energy industrial products and services, which can be matched with food, energy, commodities (excluding food and energy) and services (excluding energy) in the US CPI classification. Therefore, we first make a preliminary comparison of the inflation structure of the United States and Europe according to the four categories of food, energy, non-energy industrial products and services.</p><p>In order to further refine the differences in inflation structures between the United States and Europe,<b>We further split non-energy industrial products into durable goods and non-durable goods.</b>These two sub-items are included in the classification of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, so they do not need to be adjusted; For the euro area, durable goods and semi-durable goods in the official classification are combined as \"durable goods\", and \"non-durable goods\" is not adjusted.<b>For durable goods, automobiles and other durable goods are further split.</b>The classification of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics includes the automobile sub-item, so it does not need to be adjusted; For the euro area, motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts in the official classification are aggregated as automobiles.</p><p><b>The services are further split into four items: transportation services, leisure and entertainment services, rent and others.</b>For the euro area, the first two items are the contents of the official Eurostat classification and do not need to be adjusted; The rent is equal to the actual rent + catering and accommodation services in hotels; The first three items are subtracted from other service items, including communication services, etc. For the United States, transportation services, leisure and entertainment services, and rent are all contents in the official classification of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and do not need to be adjusted; Others can also be obtained by squeezing backwards. See the table below for specific classification details. After unifying the inflation caliber of the United States and Europe, we can compare the inflation structure of the United States and Europe.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cc47ade54035315be60678571cf2b38\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(3) Four major differences between inflation \"engines\" in Europe and the United States</b></p><p><b>One of the differences: rising energy prices play an almost decisive role in high inflation in Europe, while the United States \"blooms more\".</b>For the euro zone, energy contributed 3.2% to the year-on-year growth rate of HICP in February, and its contribution rate reached 53.5%; For the United States, energy contributed 1.7% to the year-on-year CPI growth rate in February, and contributed 21.3%; In addition to energy, food, non-energy industrial products, and services \"worked together\", contributing 14.1%, 31.5%, and 33% to the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in February, respectively, totaling 78.6%, indicating that the high inflation in the United States is \"Multiple blossoms\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cdc2cbdff201692fddf827873b203c5\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The second difference: food prices in the euro zone are rising faster.</b>Since the end of 2021, food prices in the euro zone have risen faster. As of February this year, the year-on-year pull rates of food price increases on inflation in Europe and the United States were 1% and 1.1% respectively. However, from the perspective of changing trends, because commodities account for a higher proportion of inflation in the euro zone, food prices have brought greater upward pressure on inflation in the euro zone.</p><p><b>The third difference: the price of durable goods in the United States generally rises, while the price of other durable goods in the euro zone is not obvious except for the price increase of automobiles.</b>From the absolute level of pull rate, the price increase of durable goods in the United States in February boosted the CPI by 2.1% year-on-year, while it was only 0.4% in the euro zone. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the price increase of durable goods in the euro zone has continued to be much smaller than that in the United States. In terms of structure, for Europe and the United States, automobiles are the main driving force for the price increase of durable goods. In February, the year-on-year driving force of European and American automobiles was 1.7% and 0.42% respectively, and their contribution to the price increase of durable goods in Europe and the United States was 80% and 103% respectively. In addition to the price increase of automobiles in the United States, other durable goods also have upward pressure on prices, which may indicate that the internal demand in the United States is strong, resulting in general upward pressure on durable goods prices; In the euro zone, in addition to the increase in automobile prices caused by supply-side factors such as \"core shortage\", the prices of other durable goods are falling instead, which may imply that the internal demand in the euro zone is not strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583f5b9b134cdafe34123c218690e477\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/077db96d692e97d750ebdb8e494c25c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The fourth difference: services are the biggest driver of U.S. CPI year-on-year, with rent contribution \"outstanding\", while services in the euro zone have a smaller increase, with leisure and entertainment services contributing the most.</b>In February, the U.S. CPI service sub-item contributed 2.6% year-on-year to overall inflation, and contributed 33% year-on-year to CPI, the highest among the four major sub-items (food, energy, non-energy industrial products, and services), while the euro zone The contribution rate of service price increases is only 17%. From a structural point of view, in the United States, the price increase of services is mainly due to the increase of rent. In addition, the price increase of transportation services also contributed to a certain extent. In February, the year-on-year boost of rent and transportation services to overall inflation recorded 1.6% and 0.3% respectively. The contribution rates of service price increases are 60% and 13% respectively; In the euro zone, leisure and entertainment services are the main driving force for service price increases. In February, the year-on-year pull rate of CPI was 0.4%, and the contribution rate of service price increases was 42%. Rents remained almost unchanged, and transportation services also contributed to a certain extent. In February, the contribution rate of service price increases was 19%, which was larger than that of the United States. The price increase of transportation services is also mainly limited by supply-side factors. On the one hand, the price increase of energy pushes up costs; on the other hand, the epidemic has led to a shortage of transportation employees, pushing up wage costs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f0d6068eff414c3598852b9b181e09\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7479eede35f1ec5b02a41335d9ce8753\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>To sum up, through comparison, it can be found that the biggest difference in the sources of inflationary pressure in Europe and the United States is that the euro zone mainly has inflation pushed up by commodity prices, while the United States has generally rising prices. More specifically:</b></p><p><b>First, it can be seen from the differences one and two that inflation in the euro zone is more obviously dominated by external supply shocks.</b>The pressure on energy and food price increases mainly comes from the external supply side, and energy contributes more than 50% to the high inflation in the euro zone. Recently, food has also shown a higher price increase rate than the United States.</p><p><b>Second, the difference three and four may indicate that the inflationary pressure brought by stronger internal demand in the euro zone is not great.</b>In terms of durable goods, durable goods in the United States showed general upward pressure, while the euro zone was only driven by automobiles. In terms of services, service inflation in the United States has the strongest overall driver of inflation, while the euro zone is facing higher pressure on transportation service price increases, and the price increase of transportation services is also related to rising energy prices. This difference may indicate that compared with the United States, the internal demand in the euro zone is weaker, and the inflationary pressure driven by demand is not great.</p><p><b>Considering that this round of accelerated tightening by the central banks of the United States and Europe is affected by inflation, compared with the United States, inflation in the euro zone mainly comes from external supply shocks, and internal demand is not overheated. Therefore, after the monetary policy is tightened, domestic demand in the United States may still be able to \"carry\" for a period of time, while internal demand in the euro zone may be more affected by monetary tightening, and it is more likely to fall into the risk of slowing economic growth.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/520872\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fca69a364eb1ccaf6e9078f1721480","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/520872","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2226688741","content_text":"主要观点自2021下半年以来，欧美持续面临高通胀压力，CPI同比急速上升。今年2月受俄乌局势升级影响，欧美CPI同比再创历史新高，持续高通胀压力下，欧美央行均转鹰。但欧美通胀压力来源具有明显差异，美国通胀“多点开花”，但欧元区则是“能源通胀”，即美国通胀面临的压力是各类商品和服务价格普涨；而欧元区通胀绝大部分来自于能源。考虑到能源涨价主要受供给因素影响，说明欧元区通胀压力更多来自外部供给端的冲击，而非因经济快速复苏导致需求强劲。而美国的价格普涨则表明其通胀压力既有供应端瓶颈的限制（如能源涨价），又有居民耐用品、服务等内部需求强劲的推动。因此，相较而言，美国内部需求对加息的“抵抗力”要强于欧元区，欧元区可能面临更大的经济衰退风险。1、HICP与CPI有什么异同？在编制方式上，美国CPI只考虑城市消费者；其次，在权重调整上，欧元区HICP一篮子商品与服务的权重每年调整一次，而美国CPI篮子中各商品和服务的权重两年调整一次。在消费篮子的权重方面，欧美通胀指标中服务权重均高于商品权重，显示欧美以服务消费为主的经济特征，而且美国的服务权重明显高于欧元区，高出约18.3个百分点。在商品权重中，欧美食品权重差距最大，欧元区HICP食品权重比美高8.8个百分点，其次是非能源工业品，欧较美高5.6个百分点，欧能源权重则高于美3.9个百分点。2、如何对比欧美通胀来源？由于欧美通胀指标分类上的差异，为了方便对比，我们按照核心与非核心通胀的思路进行拆分。欧盟统计局将欧元区HICP拆分为四大项目——“食品”、“能源”、“非能源工业品”、“服务”，与美国CPI分类中的“食品”、“能源”、“商品（不含食品和能源类）”、“服务（不含能源类）”可一一匹配，因此我们首先根据“食品”、“能源”、“非能源工业品”、“服务”四大类的口径，对美欧通胀结构进行初步对比。3、欧美通胀“引擎”的四大差异区别之一：能源涨价对欧高通胀几乎起决定性作用，美国“多点开花”。对于欧元区，2月份能源同比拉动3.2%，占HICP同比的53.5%；而美国除能源外，食品、非能源工业品、服务“共同发力”，2月对同比贡献分别为14.1%、31.5%、33%，合计达78.6%。区别之二：欧元区食品涨价更快。由于欧元区通胀结构中食品占比更高，因此自2021年底以来欧元区食品涨价更快。区别之三：美国耐用品普涨，欧元区除汽车涨价外，其他耐用品涨价不明显。区别之四：服务是美国CPI同比的最大拉动项，其中房租贡献“一枝独秀”，而欧元区服务涨幅较小。综上，欧美通胀压力来源最大差异在于：欧元区主要是大宗商品价格推升型通胀，而美国则是价格普涨：①从区别一和二可以看出，欧元区通胀受外部供给冲击主导特征更为明显，能源、食品涨价压力主要来自外部供给端，而欧元区高通胀中能源贡献超50%，近期食品也表现出高于美国的涨价速度。②区别三和四可能表明，欧元区由于内部需求走强带来的通胀压力并不大，耐用品方面，美国耐用品呈现普涨压力，而欧元区则仅由汽车推动。在服务方面，美国服务通胀对通胀整体拉动最强，而欧元区则更多面临更高的运输服务涨价压力，而运输服务的涨价也与能源价格上涨有关。这一区别可能表明相比于美国，欧元区内部需求偏弱，由需求推动的通胀压力并不大。风险提示：美国通胀超预期走高正文一欧美：一样的通胀高压，不一样的压力来源自2021下半年以来，欧美持续面临高通胀压力，CPI同比急速上升。今年2月受俄乌局势升级影响，欧美CPI同比再创历史新高，分别达到5.9%、7.9%的高位；环比均+0.9%，尤其是欧元区受俄乌冲突影响较大，2月环比较1月增长了0.5个百分点。持续高通胀压力下，欧美央行均转鹰。欧元区方面，3月议息会议上欧央行全面上调通胀预期，并宣布将以更快速度结束购债计划（APP），相较2月会议再度超预期转鹰。3月17日，行长拉加德在讲话中也表示“欧元区通胀水平已经不太可能回到疫情之前的水平，欧央行已经开始调整政策，以便在满足必要条件时，进一步推进政策正常化”，表明在高通胀压力下，欧央行正“被迫”转变态度。美国方面，3月美联储议息会议纪要也明确未来1次或多次议息会议或将加息50bps，最早5月或将启动缩表。但欧美通胀压力来源具有明显差异，美国通胀“多点开花”，但欧元区则是“能源通胀”，即美国通胀面临的压力是各类商品和服务价格普涨；而欧元区通胀绝大部分来自于能源。考虑到能源涨价主要受供给因素影响，说明欧元区通胀压力更多来自外部供给端的冲击，而非因经济快速复苏导致需求强劲。而美国的价格普涨则表明其通胀压力既有供应端瓶颈的限制（如能源涨价），又有居民耐用品、服务等内部需求强劲的推动。因此，相较而言，美国内部需求对加息的“抵抗力”要强于欧元区，欧元区可能面临更大的经济衰退风险。（一）HICP与CPI有什么异同？在展开欧美通胀来源对比之前，首先对比欧美通胀指标的异同。本报告选取美国CPI和欧元区HICP指标表征各自通胀水平。关于美国CPI指标的基本情况详见报告《缩or胀——美国通胀长短期双框架的找寻与展望&数论经济系列十一》，本报告主要介绍欧元区通胀指标HICP。HICP全称为TheHarmonised Index of Consumer Prices，译为调和CPI，是欧盟各成员国按照统一标准编制的消费物价指数，目的是使各成员国的物价指数具备可比性，可以进行加总得到欧元区的消费物价指数。对比发现，欧元区HICP与美国CPI主要存在以下几点差别：1、编制方法方面，首先，在样本选取上，欧元区HICP试图将农村消费者纳入样本，而美国CPI只考虑城市消费者；其次，在权重调整上，欧元区HICP一篮子商品与服务的权重每年调整一次，而美国CPI篮子中各商品和服务的权重两年调整一次。2、消费篮子的权重方面，根据核心与非核心通胀的口径来看，欧美通胀指标中服务权重均高于商品权重，显示欧美以服务消费为主的经济特征，而且美国的服务权重明显高于欧元区，高出约18.3个百分点；在商品权重中，欧美食品权重差距最大，欧元区HICP食品权重比美高8.8个百分点，其次是非能源工业品，欧较美高5.6个百分点，欧能源权重则高于美3.9个百分点。考虑到近期受俄乌冲突影响，能源、粮食等大宗商品大幅涨价，欧HICP消费者篮子中相对更高的食品和能源权重则意味着欧元区会面临更高的食品和能源通胀压力。根据消费篮子的细分种类看，按照消费的商品和服务种类分，欧元区HICP分为12大类，美国CPI则囊括8大类（详见图表6）。其中：美国CPI中住宅权重明显高于欧HICP的住宅权重，约高19.7个百分点，这也是欧美服务权重巨大差距的主要来源，主要原因可能在于欧元区HICP不包括自有住房（Owner-occupied Housing）的估计租金，而美国CPI包含自有住房部分，记为“业主等价租金”（Owners’ EquivalentRent of Residences）。但欧HICP中的食品和饮料则远高于美CPI，约高11.3个百分点，对应着欧HICP中食品大类权重远高于美CPI。（二）如何对比欧美通胀来源？由于欧美通胀指标分类上的差异，为了方便对比，我们按照核心与非核心通胀的思路进行拆分。欧盟统计局将欧元区HICP拆分为四大项目——“食品”、“能源”、“非能源工业品”、“服务”，与美国CPI分类中的“食品”、“能源”、“商品（不含食品和能源类）”、“服务（不含能源类）”可一一匹配，因此我们首先根据“食品”、“能源”、“非能源工业品”、“服务”四大类的口径，对美欧通胀结构进行初步对比。为进一步细化美欧通胀结构上的差异，我们将非能源工业品进一步拆分为耐用品与非耐用品，美国劳工统计局分类中包括这两个分项，因此不需调整；对于欧元区，将官方分类中的耐用品与半耐用品合计为“耐用品”，“非耐用品”不作调整。对于耐用品，又进一步拆分出汽车和其他耐用品，美国劳工统计局分类中包括汽车分项，因此不需调整；对于欧元区，将官方分类中的机动车和机动车零部件合计为汽车。将服务进一步拆分为交通运输服务、休闲娱乐服务、房租与其他四项，对于欧元区，前两项为欧盟统计局官方分类中的内容，无需调整；房租等于实际房租+餐饮和酒店中的住宿服务分项；其他为服务项倒减前三项，内容上包括通信服务等。对于美国，交通运输服务、休闲娱乐服务、房租均为劳工统计局官方分类中的内容，无需调整；其他也依靠倒挤得出。具体分类细节详见下表，在对美欧通胀口径进行统一后，我们可对美欧通胀结构进行对比。（三）欧美通胀“引擎”的四大差异区别之一：能源涨价对欧高通胀几乎起决定性作用，而美国“多点开花”。对于欧元区，2月份能源对HICP同比增速的拉动率为3.2%，贡献率达到53.5%；对于美国，2月份能源对CPI同比增速的拉动率为1.7%，贡献率为21.3%；除能源外，食品、非能源工业品、服务“共同发力”，2月对CPI同比增速的贡献分别为14.1%、31.5%、33%，合计达78.6%，表明美国的高通胀是“多点开花”。区别之二：欧元区食品涨价更快。自2021年末以来欧元区食品涨价更快，截至今年2月，食品价格上涨对欧、美通胀同比的拉动率分别为1%、1.1%，食品涨价对欧美通胀同比拉动率差距不大，但从变化趋势来看，由于欧元区通胀中商品占比更高，食品价格带来欧元区的通胀上行压力更大。区别之三：美国耐用品普遍涨价，欧元区除汽车涨价拉动外，其他耐用品涨价不明显。从拉动率绝对水平上看，2月美国耐用品涨价对CPI同比拉动录得2.1%，而欧元区仅有0.4%，疫情发生以来欧元区耐用品涨价幅度持续远小于美国。结构来看，对欧美来说汽车均是耐用品涨价主要拉动项，2月欧美汽车同比拉动分别为1.7%、0.42%，对欧美耐用品涨价贡献分别为80%、103%。而美国除了汽车涨价外，其他耐用品亦有价格上涨压力，可能表明美国内部需求较强劲，导致耐用品价格产生普涨压力；而在欧元区，除了因“缺芯”等供给端因素限制导致的汽车涨价外，其他耐用品价格反而在回落，可能暗示欧元区内部需求不强。区别之四：服务是美国CPI同比的最大拉动项，其中房租贡献“一枝独秀”，而欧元区服务涨幅较小，休闲娱乐服务贡献最大。2月，美国CPI服务分项对整体通胀的同比拉动率为2.6%，对CPI同比贡献率为33%，为四大分项（食品、能源、非能源工业品、服务）中最高，而欧元区服务涨价贡献率仅为17%。结构来看，在美国，服务涨价主要是因为房租上涨，此外运输服务涨价亦有一定贡献，2月，房租、运输服务对整体通胀的同比拉动分别录得1.6%、0.3%，对服务涨价贡献率分别为60%、13%；而在欧元区，休闲娱乐服务才是服务涨价的主要推动力，2月对CPI同比拉动率为0.4%，对服务涨价贡献率42%，房租几乎没有变化，交通运输服务也有一定贡献，2月对服务涨价贡献率19%，比美国大。而运输服务涨价也主要受供给端因素限制，一方面能源涨价推升成本，另一方面疫情导致运输就业人员不足推升薪资成本。综上，通过对比可以发现，欧美通胀压力来源最大差异在于：欧元区主要是大宗商品价格推升型通胀，而美国则是价格普涨，更具体地说：其一，从区别一和二可以看出，欧元区通胀受外部供给冲击主导特征更为明显，能源、食品涨价压力主要来自外部供给端，而欧元区高通胀中能源贡献超50%，近期食品也表现出高于美国的涨价速度。其二，区别三和四可能表明，欧元区由于内部需求走强带来的通胀压力并不大，耐用品方面，美国耐用品呈现普涨压力，而欧元区则仅由汽车推动。在服务方面，美国服务通胀对通胀整体拉动最强，而欧元区则更多面临更高的运输服务涨价压力，而运输服务的涨价也与能源价格上涨有关。这一区别可能表明相比于美国，欧元区内部需求偏弱，由需求推动的通胀压力并不大。考虑到美欧央行此轮加速紧缩均是受到通胀影响，但相比于美国，欧元区的通胀主要来自外部供给冲击，内部需求并未过热，因此货币政策紧缩后，美国国内需求或仍能“扛”一段时间，而欧元区内部需求或受货币紧缩冲击更大，更易陷入经济增长放缓的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096782019,"gmtCreate":1644461751143,"gmtModify":1676533929902,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096782019","repostId":"1120878270","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120878270","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1644459301,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120878270?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-10 10:15","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Lepu Biotech will launch its IPO today, and the admission fee is HK $7454.38","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120878270","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"每股发售价介于6.87港元-7.38港元，每手1000股。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>News on February 10,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02157\">Lepu Bio-B</a>Announcement: The IPO will be held from February 10 to February 15, 2022. The company plans to issue approximately 127 million shares, of which the Hong Kong public offering accounts for 10%, the international offering accounts for 90%, and there is an over-allotment option of 15%.<b>The offer price per share is HK $6.87-HK $7.38, with 1,000 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $7454.38</b>Dealings in the Shares on the Stock Exchange are expected to commence on 23 February 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e1a27c96f3078f3c0b6f92bab54cb8\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Subscription ladder</b></p><p>There are 1,000 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $7,454.38.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 70,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK $521806.55.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64702a21d77baa3223cdcc943a37271a\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>COMPANY PROFILE</b></p><p>Lepu Bio was established in 2018 and has completed 3 rounds of financing in the past 4 years, attracting many professional investment funds in the pharmaceutical and medical industry, including Vivo Capital, Suzhou Danqing, SDIC Chuanghe, Ping An Capital, Sunshine Life Insurance, Ronghui Sunshine, Guoxin Central Enterprises, Shanghai Biomedical Fund, etc.</p><p><b>Differentiated layout of PD-1 pan-cancer immunotherapy</b></p><p>Lepu Biotech focuses on the combined drug mechanism in the field of tumor treatment, which is<b>The only innovative drug company in China that has both PD-1 monoclonal antibodies in the NDA production stage and multiple clinical phase II ADC pipelines.</b>There are 8 clinical-stage drug candidates in its product pipeline, mainly composed of targeted therapies (ADC antibody conjugate drugs) and immunotherapy drugs. The latter includes two immune checkpoint drugs (PD-1/L1) and an oncolytic virus drug. Three drug candidates have entered registrational trials and two trials are underway in the United States. Monoclonal antibody cornerstone products, ADC, oncolytic virus, etc. can form the advantage of combined drug use, and the company will also expand the beneficiary patient population and improve the quality of life of patients.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893211e958a9d22abefebb7472519142\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Prospectus</p><p>PD-1 (L1) competition in China has been extremely fierce, so many companies have begun to target more cutting-edge therapeutic markets. PD-1 Putelimab Injection (HX008), one of the core products of Lepu Bio, is the second indication The marketing application for MSI-H/dMMR solid tumors will be included in priority review by CDE in November 2021.</p><p>MSI-H/dMMR is the first pan-tumor tumor marker, and the discovery of MSI-H/dMMR tumor marker has promoted the progress of tumor treatment regardless of cancer type and type. As an emerging immunotherapy biomarker, MSI-H/dMMR has a high detection rate in digestive cancers such as gastric cancer and colorectal cancer, so it has a wide application prospect. But the competition in the MSI-H/dMMR solid tumor treatment market has just begun. At present, the global<b>Only three anti-PD-(L) 1 monoclonal antibodies, namely, drug K (pembrolizumab, approved by FDA and NMPA), drug O (nivolumab, approved by FDA) and envolimab (approved by NMPA), have been approved for the treatment of MSI-H/dMMR solid tumors.</b></p><p>Taking drug K as an example, in a global multi-center large-scale phase III clinical trial of pembrolizumab for the first-line treatment of bowel cancer, the 3-year survival rate, PFS, ORR, CRR, TRAE and other performances of patients with advanced bowel cancer using drug K were significantly better than those of patients with advanced bowel cancer using conventional chemotherapy. The NDA application for HX008 submitted by Lepu Biotech has been accepted. HX008 is expected to become Lepu Biotech's first marketed product and enable patients to benefit from new therapies earlier.</p><p><b>It is also worth mentioning that PD-1 is the closest to commercialization in the overall strategic deployment of Lepu Biotech and plays an important role. The company will use PD-1 products to open up sales channels. It plans to start marketing work in medical institutions and pharmacy systems after HX008 is approved for the treatment of MSI-H/dMMR solid tumors and melanoma in China, laying the foundation for the smooth launch of ADC products and subsequent pipelines</b>。</p><p><b>Multiple ADCs are expected to achieve world firsts</b></p><p>ADC drugs are the core of Lepu Biological's targeted therapy. The company has a variety of targeted ADC drug pipelines, among which the core pipeline HER2 targeted ADC drug MRG002 has the fastest commercialization progress. Lepu Bio has a relatively complete layout in the field of breast cancer treatment, especially one of its core products, MRG002, is a HER2-targeted ADC drug. The HER2-positive rate of breast cancer is about 25.4%. The second-line progression rate of breast cancer in China is 94.3%.</p><p>Breast cancer is now the most common cancer in the world, with the number of new breast cancer cases in China reaching 331,600 in 2020. According to Frost & Sullivan, the size of China's breast cancer market will be RMB 50.7 billion in 2020, and it is expected to reach RMB 81.8 billion and RMB 124.6 billion by 2025 and 2030, respectively.</p><p>MRG002 has achieved a breakthrough in phase II clinical studies. This phase II clinical trial was led by Professor Jiang Zefei of the People's Liberation Army General Hospital. Jiang Zefei made a detailed report in the special session on innovative drug clinical research data at the CSCO annual meeting in September 2021. Jiang Zefei said that the innovative efficacy of MRG002 comes from its innovative molecular design, because ADC drug design has unique difficulties in cytotoxicity and linkers.</p><p>The global breast cancer treatment market has never been short of blockbuster varieties. According to Nature Reviews Drug Discovery, in 2026, the global sales of currently listed ADCs will exceed US $16.4 billion.</p><p>Another core pipeline, MRG003, is an EGFR-targeted ADC drug candidate. According to Frost & Sullivan, MRG003 is currently<b>Domestic first and leading international clinical progress</b>Globally, except for Japan's Rakuten Medical's product Akalux (suitable for unresectable locally recurrent head and neck cancer), which has been approved by PMDA, no other ADC targeting EGFR has been approved. Lepu Biologics is conducting a number of phase II clinical trials for MRG003 in China.</p><p>Similarly, other ADC pipelines also have the potential to be the first of their kind. For example, CMG901 jointly developed by Lepu Bio and Connoya (2162. HK) is the world's first CLDN18.2 targeted ADC approved by IND; The company's self-developed MRG001 is aimed at hematological tumors. There are currently no approved CD20-targeted ADC products in the world. The only CD20-targeted ADCs that have entered the clinical stage in China are the company's MRG001 and Trace's TRS005.</p><p><b>ADC drug technology is complex, and many pipelines will face the challenge of early research and development failure; In addition, ADC drugs can be finally approved for marketing, and the company's ADC commercial production capacity and production experience are also crucial.</b>Dr. Hu Chaohong, co-general manager of Lepu Biotech, has worked in Seagen (SGEN.US) for many years, and the team has rich experience in ADC drug research and development. Lepu Bio also has an ADC platform with clinically proven coupling and CMC technologies, as well as a development and analysis platform for advanced processes as support for commercial production.</p><p><b>Leading the world in clinical progress of oncolytic virus</b></p><p>Lepu Biotech introduced the innovative pipeline CG0070 from CG Oncology and obtained the rights to develop, manufacture and commercialize the product in China. The company has submitted an IND application to the State Food and Drug Administration for intravesical administration of CG0070 for the treatment of bladder cancer (NMIBC, that is, non-muscular invasive bladder cancer that does not respond to Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG)) and other solid tumors.<b>The application for NMIBC has received clinical approval from CDE,</b>Carry out clinical trials for this indication.</p><p>According to Frost & Sullivan,<b>CG0070 is the first and only oncolytic adenovirus in clinical development for bladder cancer</b>。 Oncolytic viruses are a kind of viruses that can selectively lyse cancer cells. On the one hand, they can infect tumor cells and cause cell lysis; On the other hand, the molecules they release during the lysis process can also induce congenital and adaptive immune responses, attracting more immune cells to continue to kill residual tumor cells. Therefore, oncolytic viruses have good clinical prospects as innovative therapies.</p><p>The main indication of oncolytic virus is bladder cancer, which is the most common malignant tumor of the urinary system and has the highest incidence of genitourinary tract tumors in China.<b>With a five-year survival rate of 72.9% in China, there is a significant market opportunity for bladder cancer treatment.</b>In addition, oncolytic viruses can also be extended to other indications, especially in combination use,<b>The combination of oncolytic viruses and anti-PD-1/anti-PD-L1 monoclonal antibodies has emerged as an emerging treatment for advanced malignancies.</b></p><p>CG0070 demonstrated good safety and efficacy in the Phase II clinical study conducted by CG Oncology in the United States for the treatment of NMIBC. On November 13, 2021, CG Oncology disclosed the very eye-catching Phase II clinical trial data of CG0070 combined with K drug.<b>The results of the trial showed that among the 9 NMIBC patients whose efficacy could be evaluated, all patients achieved complete remission (CR) at 3 months. In addition, the CR rate of patients who reached the 6-month evaluation node and the 9-month evaluation node also maintained 100%.</b></p><p>Many companies around the world have deployed a total of more than 180 oncolytic virus pipelines, but currently CG Oncology and aglatimagene besadenovec of Candel Therapeutics (CADL.US) (the treatment of prostate cancer has entered clinical phase III) are among the pipelines with faster progress.</p><p>In addition to CG0070, Lepu Bio also participated in Wuhan Binhui Bio, which independently developed recombinant human GM-CSF oncolytic herpes simplex virus type II (OH2) injection. According to the prospectus of Lepu Bio, the combination therapy of HX008 combined with OH2 for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma has been approved for IND and the corresponding phase I clinical trial has begun.</p><p>Lepu Bio has established multiple tumor treatment pipelines for multiple indications. As product commercialization approaches, the company is also advancing research on the combination of monoclonal antibodies and other core pipelines in order to provide patients with innovative and even disruptive treatment options. In addition to the above-mentioned HX008 combined with OH2, Lepu Biotech also plans to conduct research and development on ADC combined with HX008 for the treatment of advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). MRG003 combined with HX008 for HNSCC and MRG002 combined with HX008 for gastric cancer have both received IND approval from the NMPA.</p><p>From a global perspective, in clinical trials of monoclonal antibody products such as K drug combined with ADC and oncolytic virus, combination therapy generally shows a higher complete remission rate than single drug, and the survival rate of patients participating in combination chemotherapy trials is also improving.</p><p>While advancing the development of candidate products, the company has planned and is implementing the production and commercialization layout. In 2019, Lepu Biotech built a GMP standard 2,000 L antibody production line in Beijing and put it into production. It is currently building a 200L oncolytic virus drug production line in Beijing. The company is also currently building a biomedical production center in Shanghai, including a production line with a preliminary design capacity of 12,000 L and the construction of supporting laboratories and factories. Relying on the company's team and technology platform, the construction of production and commercialization capabilities will also provide great support for the company's global layout.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lepu Biotech will launch its IPO today, and the admission fee is HK $7454.38</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLepu Biotech will launch its IPO today, and the admission fee is HK $7454.38\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-10 10:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>News on February 10,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02157\">Lepu Bio-B</a>Announcement: The IPO will be held from February 10 to February 15, 2022. The company plans to issue approximately 127 million shares, of which the Hong Kong public offering accounts for 10%, the international offering accounts for 90%, and there is an over-allotment option of 15%.<b>The offer price per share is HK $6.87-HK $7.38, with 1,000 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $7454.38</b>Dealings in the Shares on the Stock Exchange are expected to commence on 23 February 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e1a27c96f3078f3c0b6f92bab54cb8\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Subscription ladder</b></p><p>There are 1,000 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $7,454.38.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 70,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK $521806.55.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64702a21d77baa3223cdcc943a37271a\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>COMPANY PROFILE</b></p><p>Lepu Bio was established in 2018 and has completed 3 rounds of financing in the past 4 years, attracting many professional investment funds in the pharmaceutical and medical industry, including Vivo Capital, Suzhou Danqing, SDIC Chuanghe, Ping An Capital, Sunshine Life Insurance, Ronghui Sunshine, Guoxin Central Enterprises, Shanghai Biomedical Fund, etc.</p><p><b>Differentiated layout of PD-1 pan-cancer immunotherapy</b></p><p>Lepu Biotech focuses on the combined drug mechanism in the field of tumor treatment, which is<b>The only innovative drug company in China that has both PD-1 monoclonal antibodies in the NDA production stage and multiple clinical phase II ADC pipelines.</b>There are 8 clinical-stage drug candidates in its product pipeline, mainly composed of targeted therapies (ADC antibody conjugate drugs) and immunotherapy drugs. The latter includes two immune checkpoint drugs (PD-1/L1) and an oncolytic virus drug. Three drug candidates have entered registrational trials and two trials are underway in the United States. Monoclonal antibody cornerstone products, ADC, oncolytic virus, etc. can form the advantage of combined drug use, and the company will also expand the beneficiary patient population and improve the quality of life of patients.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893211e958a9d22abefebb7472519142\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Prospectus</p><p>PD-1 (L1) competition in China has been extremely fierce, so many companies have begun to target more cutting-edge therapeutic markets. PD-1 Putelimab Injection (HX008), one of the core products of Lepu Bio, is the second indication The marketing application for MSI-H/dMMR solid tumors will be included in priority review by CDE in November 2021.</p><p>MSI-H/dMMR is the first pan-tumor tumor marker, and the discovery of MSI-H/dMMR tumor marker has promoted the progress of tumor treatment regardless of cancer type and type. As an emerging immunotherapy biomarker, MSI-H/dMMR has a high detection rate in digestive cancers such as gastric cancer and colorectal cancer, so it has a wide application prospect. But the competition in the MSI-H/dMMR solid tumor treatment market has just begun. At present, the global<b>Only three anti-PD-(L) 1 monoclonal antibodies, namely, drug K (pembrolizumab, approved by FDA and NMPA), drug O (nivolumab, approved by FDA) and envolimab (approved by NMPA), have been approved for the treatment of MSI-H/dMMR solid tumors.</b></p><p>Taking drug K as an example, in a global multi-center large-scale phase III clinical trial of pembrolizumab for the first-line treatment of bowel cancer, the 3-year survival rate, PFS, ORR, CRR, TRAE and other performances of patients with advanced bowel cancer using drug K were significantly better than those of patients with advanced bowel cancer using conventional chemotherapy. The NDA application for HX008 submitted by Lepu Biotech has been accepted. HX008 is expected to become Lepu Biotech's first marketed product and enable patients to benefit from new therapies earlier.</p><p><b>It is also worth mentioning that PD-1 is the closest to commercialization in the overall strategic deployment of Lepu Biotech and plays an important role. The company will use PD-1 products to open up sales channels. It plans to start marketing work in medical institutions and pharmacy systems after HX008 is approved for the treatment of MSI-H/dMMR solid tumors and melanoma in China, laying the foundation for the smooth launch of ADC products and subsequent pipelines</b>。</p><p><b>Multiple ADCs are expected to achieve world firsts</b></p><p>ADC drugs are the core of Lepu Biological's targeted therapy. The company has a variety of targeted ADC drug pipelines, among which the core pipeline HER2 targeted ADC drug MRG002 has the fastest commercialization progress. Lepu Bio has a relatively complete layout in the field of breast cancer treatment, especially one of its core products, MRG002, is a HER2-targeted ADC drug. The HER2-positive rate of breast cancer is about 25.4%. The second-line progression rate of breast cancer in China is 94.3%.</p><p>Breast cancer is now the most common cancer in the world, with the number of new breast cancer cases in China reaching 331,600 in 2020. According to Frost & Sullivan, the size of China's breast cancer market will be RMB 50.7 billion in 2020, and it is expected to reach RMB 81.8 billion and RMB 124.6 billion by 2025 and 2030, respectively.</p><p>MRG002 has achieved a breakthrough in phase II clinical studies. This phase II clinical trial was led by Professor Jiang Zefei of the People's Liberation Army General Hospital. Jiang Zefei made a detailed report in the special session on innovative drug clinical research data at the CSCO annual meeting in September 2021. Jiang Zefei said that the innovative efficacy of MRG002 comes from its innovative molecular design, because ADC drug design has unique difficulties in cytotoxicity and linkers.</p><p>The global breast cancer treatment market has never been short of blockbuster varieties. According to Nature Reviews Drug Discovery, in 2026, the global sales of currently listed ADCs will exceed US $16.4 billion.</p><p>Another core pipeline, MRG003, is an EGFR-targeted ADC drug candidate. According to Frost & Sullivan, MRG003 is currently<b>Domestic first and leading international clinical progress</b>Globally, except for Japan's Rakuten Medical's product Akalux (suitable for unresectable locally recurrent head and neck cancer), which has been approved by PMDA, no other ADC targeting EGFR has been approved. Lepu Biologics is conducting a number of phase II clinical trials for MRG003 in China.</p><p>Similarly, other ADC pipelines also have the potential to be the first of their kind. For example, CMG901 jointly developed by Lepu Bio and Connoya (2162. HK) is the world's first CLDN18.2 targeted ADC approved by IND; The company's self-developed MRG001 is aimed at hematological tumors. There are currently no approved CD20-targeted ADC products in the world. The only CD20-targeted ADCs that have entered the clinical stage in China are the company's MRG001 and Trace's TRS005.</p><p><b>ADC drug technology is complex, and many pipelines will face the challenge of early research and development failure; In addition, ADC drugs can be finally approved for marketing, and the company's ADC commercial production capacity and production experience are also crucial.</b>Dr. Hu Chaohong, co-general manager of Lepu Biotech, has worked in Seagen (SGEN.US) for many years, and the team has rich experience in ADC drug research and development. Lepu Bio also has an ADC platform with clinically proven coupling and CMC technologies, as well as a development and analysis platform for advanced processes as support for commercial production.</p><p><b>Leading the world in clinical progress of oncolytic virus</b></p><p>Lepu Biotech introduced the innovative pipeline CG0070 from CG Oncology and obtained the rights to develop, manufacture and commercialize the product in China. The company has submitted an IND application to the State Food and Drug Administration for intravesical administration of CG0070 for the treatment of bladder cancer (NMIBC, that is, non-muscular invasive bladder cancer that does not respond to Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG)) and other solid tumors.<b>The application for NMIBC has received clinical approval from CDE,</b>Carry out clinical trials for this indication.</p><p>According to Frost & Sullivan,<b>CG0070 is the first and only oncolytic adenovirus in clinical development for bladder cancer</b>。 Oncolytic viruses are a kind of viruses that can selectively lyse cancer cells. On the one hand, they can infect tumor cells and cause cell lysis; On the other hand, the molecules they release during the lysis process can also induce congenital and adaptive immune responses, attracting more immune cells to continue to kill residual tumor cells. Therefore, oncolytic viruses have good clinical prospects as innovative therapies.</p><p>The main indication of oncolytic virus is bladder cancer, which is the most common malignant tumor of the urinary system and has the highest incidence of genitourinary tract tumors in China.<b>With a five-year survival rate of 72.9% in China, there is a significant market opportunity for bladder cancer treatment.</b>In addition, oncolytic viruses can also be extended to other indications, especially in combination use,<b>The combination of oncolytic viruses and anti-PD-1/anti-PD-L1 monoclonal antibodies has emerged as an emerging treatment for advanced malignancies.</b></p><p>CG0070 demonstrated good safety and efficacy in the Phase II clinical study conducted by CG Oncology in the United States for the treatment of NMIBC. On November 13, 2021, CG Oncology disclosed the very eye-catching Phase II clinical trial data of CG0070 combined with K drug.<b>The results of the trial showed that among the 9 NMIBC patients whose efficacy could be evaluated, all patients achieved complete remission (CR) at 3 months. In addition, the CR rate of patients who reached the 6-month evaluation node and the 9-month evaluation node also maintained 100%.</b></p><p>Many companies around the world have deployed a total of more than 180 oncolytic virus pipelines, but currently CG Oncology and aglatimagene besadenovec of Candel Therapeutics (CADL.US) (the treatment of prostate cancer has entered clinical phase III) are among the pipelines with faster progress.</p><p>In addition to CG0070, Lepu Bio also participated in Wuhan Binhui Bio, which independently developed recombinant human GM-CSF oncolytic herpes simplex virus type II (OH2) injection. According to the prospectus of Lepu Bio, the combination therapy of HX008 combined with OH2 for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma has been approved for IND and the corresponding phase I clinical trial has begun.</p><p>Lepu Bio has established multiple tumor treatment pipelines for multiple indications. As product commercialization approaches, the company is also advancing research on the combination of monoclonal antibodies and other core pipelines in order to provide patients with innovative and even disruptive treatment options. In addition to the above-mentioned HX008 combined with OH2, Lepu Biotech also plans to conduct research and development on ADC combined with HX008 for the treatment of advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). MRG003 combined with HX008 for HNSCC and MRG002 combined with HX008 for gastric cancer have both received IND approval from the NMPA.</p><p>From a global perspective, in clinical trials of monoclonal antibody products such as K drug combined with ADC and oncolytic virus, combination therapy generally shows a higher complete remission rate than single drug, and the survival rate of patients participating in combination chemotherapy trials is also improving.</p><p>While advancing the development of candidate products, the company has planned and is implementing the production and commercialization layout. In 2019, Lepu Biotech built a GMP standard 2,000 L antibody production line in Beijing and put it into production. It is currently building a 200L oncolytic virus drug production line in Beijing. The company is also currently building a biomedical production center in Shanghai, including a production line with a preliminary design capacity of 12,000 L and the construction of supporting laboratories and factories. Relying on the company's team and technology platform, the construction of production and commercialization capabilities will also provide great support for the company's global layout.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d9586192423abb2922de7db5c64252","relate_stocks":{"02157":"乐普生物-B"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120878270","content_text":"2月10日消息，乐普生物-B公告：于2022年2月10日-2月15日进行招股，公司拟发行约1.27亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附有15%的超额配股权。每股发售价为6.87港元-7.38港元，每手1000股，入场费7454.38港元，预期股份将于2022年2月23日在联交所开始买卖。申购阶梯每手1000股，入场费7454.38港元。乙组门槛为70000股，申购所需资金约521806.55港元。公司简介乐普生物成立于2018年，近4年一共完成了3轮融资，吸引了众多专业的医药医疗行业投资基金，包括维梧资本、苏州丹青、国投创合、平安资本、阳光人寿、融汇阳光、国新央企、上海生物医药基金等。差异化布局PD-1泛癌种免疫治疗乐普生物聚焦肿瘤治疗领域的联合用药机制，是国内唯一一家既有NDA报产阶段PD-1单抗，又拥有多个临床II期ADC管线的创新药企业。其产品管线中有8种临床阶段候选药物，主要由靶向疗法（ADC抗体偶联药物）和免疫治疗药物构成，后者包括两种免疫检查点药物（PD-1/L1）和一种溶瘤病毒药物。三项候选药物已进入注册性试验，两项试验正在美国进行。单抗类基石产品与ADC、溶瘤病毒等可形成联合用药优势，公司也将扩大受益患者群，提高患者的生存质量。来源：招股书PD-1（L1）在国内竞争已经异常激烈，因此不少企业都开始瞄准更前沿的治疗市场，乐普生物核心产品之一PD-1 普特利单抗注射液（HX008）第二个适应症MSI-H/dMMR 实体瘤的上市申请，2021年11月被CDE纳入优先评审。MSI-H/dMMR是第一个「泛瘤种」肿瘤标志物，MSI-H/dMMR肿瘤标志物的发现推动了「不分癌种，分型而治」的肿瘤治疗方式的进展。作为新兴的免疫治疗生物标志物，MSI-H/dMMR在胃癌、结直肠癌等消化系统癌症中的检出率较高，因此具有广泛的应用前景。但MSI-H/dMMR实体瘤治疗市场的竞争才刚开始。目前，全球仅获批了K药（帕博丽珠单抗，已于FDA、NMPA获批）、O药（纳武利尤单抗，已于FDA获批）及恩沃利单抗3款抗PD-(L)1单抗（已于NMPA获批）用于治疗MSI-H/dMMR实体瘤。以K药为例，在帕博利珠单抗针对肠癌一线治疗的全球多中心的大型III期临床试验中，使用K药的晚期肠癌患者的3年生存率、PFS、ORR、CRR、TRAE等表现都明显优于使用常规化疗的晚期肠癌患者。乐普生物提交的HX008的NDA申请已获受理，HX008有望成为乐普生物首个上市产品，并使患者较早从新疗法中获益。另外值得一提的是，PD-1在乐普生物整体战略部署中离商业化最近，具有重要地位。公司将借助PD-1产品来打通销售渠道，计划HX008国内获批用于治疗MSI-H/dMMR实体瘤及黑色素瘤后启动在医疗机构、药房体系的营销工作，为ADC产品及后续管线顺利上市奠定基础。多款ADC有望实现全球首创ADC药物是乐普生物靶向疗法的核心，公司拥有多种靶向ADC药物管线，其中核心管线HER2靶向ADC药物MRG002商业化进展最快。乐普生物在乳腺癌治疗领域有相对完善的布局，尤其是核心产品之一MRG002为HER2靶向ADC药物。乳腺癌的HER2阳性率约为25.4%。中国乳腺癌的二线进展率为94.3%。乳腺癌现成为全球最常见的癌种，中国2020年新增的乳腺癌病例数达到33.16万。据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，2020年中国乳腺癌市场的规模为人民币507亿元，预计至2025年及2030年将分别达到818亿元及1246亿元。MRG002在II期临床研究中已实现突破。此II期临床试验由解放军总医院江泽飞教授牵头，江泽飞在2021年9月的CSCO年会创新药物临床研究数据专场中作了详细汇报。江泽飞表示，MRG002的创新疗效来自于其创新的分子设计，因为ADC药物设计在细胞毒、连接子方面都有独特难点。全球的乳腺癌治疗市场从来不乏重磅品种。据Nature Reviews Drug Discovery预计，2026年，目前已上市ADC的全球销售额将超过164亿美元。另一项核心管线MRG003为一款EGFR靶向ADC候选药物。据弗若斯特沙利文，MRG003是目前国内首创和国际临床进度领先的靶向EGFR的ADC药物，全球范围内，除了日本Rakuten Medical的产品Akalux（适用于不能切除的局部复发性头颈癌）获PMDA批准外，还没有其他靶向EGFR的ADC获批。乐普生物正在就MRG003在中国进行多项II期临床试验。同样，ADC其他管线也具有同类首创的潜质。例如，乐普生物与康诺亚（2162.HK）合作开发的CMG901是全球首款获IND批准的CLDN18.2靶向ADC；公司自研的MRG001针对血液肿瘤，全球目前尚未有获批的CD20靶向ADC产品，国内进入临床阶段的CD20靶向ADC仅有公司的MRG001和特瑞思的TRS005。ADC药物技术复杂，很多管线会面临前期研发失败的挑战；此外，ADC药物能最终获批上市，企业的ADC商业化生产能力、生产经验也至关重要。乐普生物联席总经理胡朝红博士在Seagen（SGEN.US）工作多年，团队拥有丰富的ADC药物研发经验。乐普生物也具有经临床验证的偶联和CMC技术的ADC平台，以及先进工艺的开发分析平台作为商业化生产的支持。溶瘤病毒临床进展全球领先乐普生物从CG Oncology引进了创新型管线CG0070，获得了该产品在国内的开发、制造和商业化权利。公司已向国家药监局提交CG0070膀胱内给药治疗膀胱癌（NMIBC，即卡介苗（BCG）无应答的非肌层浸润性膀胱癌）及其他实体瘤的IND申请，针对NMIBC的申请已获CDE的临床批件，开展对该适应症的临床试验。据弗若斯特沙利文，CG0070是首个也是唯一一个处于临床开发阶段的治疗膀胱癌的溶瘤腺病毒。溶瘤病毒是一类能选择性裂解癌细胞的病毒，一方面，它们可以感染肿瘤细胞并引起细胞裂解；另一方面，它们在裂解过程中释放的分子还能诱导先天性和适应性免疫反应，吸引更多免疫细胞来继续杀死残余肿瘤细胞，因此溶瘤病毒作为创新疗法有很好的临床前景。溶瘤病毒的主要适应症为膀胱癌，膀胱癌是泌尿系统最常见的恶性肿瘤，在中国泌尿生殖道肿瘤的发病率最高，在中国的五年生存率为72.9%，膀胱癌治疗有重大的市场机会。此外，溶瘤病毒还可拓展至其他适应症，尤其能在联用中体现优势，溶瘤病毒及抗PD-1╱抗PD-L1单克隆抗体的联合已成为新兴的晚期恶性肿瘤治疗方法。CG0070在CG Oncology于美国进行的用于治疗NMIBC的临床II期研究中展现出良好的安全性及疗效， 2021年11月13日，CG Oncology披露了CG0070联合K药十分亮眼的Ⅱ期临床试验数据。试验结果显示，在可评估疗效的9名NMIBC患者中，所有患者在3个月时实现了完全缓解（CR），此外，达到6个月评估节点和9个月评估节点的患者CR率也保持了100%。全球很多家企业布局了共约180多款溶瘤病毒管线，但目前CG Oncology和美国Candel Therapeutics（CADL.US）的aglatimagene besadenovec（治疗前列腺癌进入了临床III期）属于其中进展较快的管线。除CG0070外，乐普生物还参股了武汉滨会生物，滨会生物自主开发了重组人GM-CSF溶瘤II型单纯疱疹病毒（OH2）注射液。乐普生物招股书显示，HX008联合OH2针对晚期肝细胞癌的联合疗法已经获批IND并开始相应的I期临床试验。乐普生物已建立起针对多种适应症的多个肿瘤治疗管线。随着产品商业化的临近，公司也在推进单抗与其他核心管线联用的研究，以期为患者提供创新甚至颠覆性的治疗方案。除上述HX008联合OH2外，乐普生物还计划就ADC联合HX008治疗晚期头颈部鳞状细胞癌（HNSCC）等进行研发。MRG003联合HX008治疗HNSCC，以及MRG002与HX008联合治疗胃癌均已从国家药监局获得了IND批准。而从全球来看，K药等单抗产品与ADC、溶瘤病毒联用的临床试验中，联合疗法普遍显示出较单药更高的完全缓解率，参与联合化疗试验的患者生存率也在提高。在推进候选产品开发的同时，公司已规划并正在落实生产和商业化布局。2019年，乐普生物在北京建设了GMP标准的2,000L抗体生产线并投产，目前还正在北京建设200L溶瘤病毒药物生产线。公司目前还在建上海的生物医药生产中心，包括初步设计产能12,000L的生产线及配套实验室和厂房的建设。依托公司的团队和技术平台，生产及商业化能力的建设也将为公司的全球化布局提供巨大支持。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02157":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887756499,"gmtCreate":1632102009611,"gmtModify":1676530700701,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887756499","repostId":"1100031374","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100031374","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631587259,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100031374?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-14 10:40","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: The Mid-Autumn Festival market closure arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks closed on the 22nd","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100031374","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：港股：\n\n\n9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。\n\n\nA股：\n\n\n9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。\n\n\n美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n\n\n沪股通和深股通：\n\n\n9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。\n\n\n港股通：\n\n\n9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。","content":"<p>The 2021 Mid-Autumn Festival holiday is upon us! The closing arrangements of major markets are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a514042f0cc485274181ed3db4bcf541\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"746\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market is closed on Wednesday, September 22. The market will open as usual from September 23rd (Thursday).</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, September 20th to Tuesday, September 21st. The market will open as usual from September 22nd (Wednesday).</p><p><b>U.S. stocks, British stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed Friday, September 17-Wednesday, September 22. It will be open as usual from September 23rd (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed Thursday, September 16-Wednesday, September 22. It will be open as usual from September 23rd (Thursday).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: The Mid-Autumn Festival market closure arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks closed on the 22nd</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: The Mid-Autumn Festival market closure arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks closed on the 22nd\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-14 10:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The 2021 Mid-Autumn Festival holiday is upon us! The closing arrangements of major markets are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a514042f0cc485274181ed3db4bcf541\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"746\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market is closed on Wednesday, September 22. The market will open as usual from September 23rd (Thursday).</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, September 20th to Tuesday, September 21st. The market will open as usual from September 22nd (Wednesday).</p><p><b>U.S. stocks, British stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed Friday, September 17-Wednesday, September 22. It will be open as usual from September 23rd (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed Thursday, September 16-Wednesday, September 22. It will be open as usual from September 23rd (Thursday).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100031374","content_text":"2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：港股：\n9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。\nA股：\n9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。\n美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n沪股通和深股通：\n9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。\n港股通：\n9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833624200,"gmtCreate":1629241610600,"gmtModify":1676529973638,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy now","listText":"Buy now","text":"Buy now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/833624200","repostId":"2160783852","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2160783852","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629232740,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2160783852?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-18 04:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Tencent is about to release its quarterly financial report, which has plummeted 43%, and its stock price may not be able to wait for good news","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160783852","media":"新浪财经","summary":"腾讯控股本周将发布财报，股价重挫43%后等待触底反弹的投资者可能不会得到多少安慰。这将是其2019年第三季度以来的首次盈利下滑。腾讯将于周三市场收盘后发布业绩报告。　　腾讯近期股价大跌，香港恒生指数过去六个月的跌幅有四分之一源于腾讯。腾讯目前的预期市盈率约为21倍，低于其30倍左右的历史平均水平。　　即将发布的财报将考验分析师对该股的看涨态度。","content":"<p><html><body><div><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/45/w550h295/20210818/3b36-f166e432ec72bfce5392b3e063c512d6.png\"/><span></span></div>　　<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>This week's earnings report will be released, and investors waiting for bottom out after the share price plunged 43% may not get much comfort.</p><p>The tech giant is expected to report a 7.1% drop in second-quarter net income, according to a media survey of 17 analysts. This would be its first earnings decline since the third quarter of 2019. Tencent will release its performance report after the market closes on Wednesday.</p><p><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/46/w550h296/20210818/8868-3e8c38fc9b557a701388da5a8ecccd67.png\"/><span></span></div>Tencent's share price has plummeted recently, and a quarter of the decline of Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index in the past six months stemmed from Tencent.</p><p>The decline in the share price makes the stock's valuation more attractive, though. Tencent's current expected P/E is about 21 times, which is lower than its historical average of about 30 times. Hugh Young, a senior fund manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments, said his company bought Tencent on dips.</p><p>The upcoming earnings release will test analysts' bullish attitude towards the stock. According to the data, among the 68 analysts who rated Tencent, 63 recommended buying. The gap between the current stock price and analysts' price targets is 65%, which is close to the highest level in history.</p><p>　　<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a></span><span></span>Analyst Gary Yu and others said that given that the education industry is a major advertising revenue source, this will have a \"significant\" impact on Tencent in the second half of the year.</p><p>Morgan Stanley also said in its July report that Tencent's cloud computing and value-added services businesses may partially offset the weak advertising outlook. But its core gaming business is also facing a high year-over-year base as the Covid-19 pandemic fueled an online entertainment boom a year ago.</p><p>Tencent's near-term outlook remains challenging. Analysts expect the third-quarter profit decline to expand to more than 10%, which will be the first time Tencent has experienced two consecutive quarters of profit decline. Some analysts believe that weak earnings won't cause the stock to fall much further, especially as there are long-term tailwinds such as digital transformation.</p><p>\"We expect the negative seasonality of online games to have been priced in by the stock price,\" Jefferies analyst Thomas Chong and others wrote in a July 14 note. \"With the shift to the industrial Internet and changes in user behavior, we expect investments in enterprise services, high-output games and short video content to pave the way for the company.\"</p><p><div><span>Shareholder welfare! Taurus, Maotai, mobile phones... task \"luxurious\" gifts, waiting for you to get them > ></span><img src=\"\"/></div><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information and accurate interpretation, all in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Finance APP</div></div>Editor in charge: Zhang Yujie SF107</p><p></div></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent is about to release its quarterly financial report, which has plummeted 43%, and its stock price may not be able to wait for good news</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent is about to release its quarterly financial report, which has plummeted 43%, and its stock price may not be able to wait for good news\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 04:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/45/w550h295/20210818/3b36-f166e432ec72bfce5392b3e063c512d6.png\"/><span></span></div>　　<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>This week's earnings report will be released, and investors waiting for bottom out after the share price plunged 43% may not get much comfort.</p><p>The tech giant is expected to report a 7.1% drop in second-quarter net income, according to a media survey of 17 analysts. This would be its first earnings decline since the third quarter of 2019. Tencent will release its performance report after the market closes on Wednesday.</p><p><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/46/w550h296/20210818/8868-3e8c38fc9b557a701388da5a8ecccd67.png\"/><span></span></div>Tencent's share price has plummeted recently, and a quarter of the decline of Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index in the past six months stemmed from Tencent.</p><p>The decline in the share price makes the stock's valuation more attractive, though. Tencent's current expected P/E is about 21 times, which is lower than its historical average of about 30 times. Hugh Young, a senior fund manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments, said his company bought Tencent on dips.</p><p>The upcoming earnings release will test analysts' bullish attitude towards the stock. According to the data, among the 68 analysts who rated Tencent, 63 recommended buying. The gap between the current stock price and analysts' price targets is 65%, which is close to the highest level in history.</p><p>　　<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a></span><span></span>Analyst Gary Yu and others said that given that the education industry is a major advertising revenue source, this will have a \"significant\" impact on Tencent in the second half of the year.</p><p>Morgan Stanley also said in its July report that Tencent's cloud computing and value-added services businesses may partially offset the weak advertising outlook. But its core gaming business is also facing a high year-over-year base as the Covid-19 pandemic fueled an online entertainment boom a year ago.</p><p>Tencent's near-term outlook remains challenging. Analysts expect the third-quarter profit decline to expand to more than 10%, which will be the first time Tencent has experienced two consecutive quarters of profit decline. Some analysts believe that weak earnings won't cause the stock to fall much further, especially as there are long-term tailwinds such as digital transformation.</p><p>\"We expect the negative seasonality of online games to have been priced in by the stock price,\" Jefferies analyst Thomas Chong and others wrote in a July 14 note. \"With the shift to the industrial Internet and changes in user behavior, we expect investments in enterprise services, high-output games and short video content to pave the way for the company.\"</p><p><div><span>Shareholder welfare! Taurus, Maotai, mobile phones... task \"luxurious\" gifts, waiting for you to get them > ></span><img src=\"\"/></div><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information and accurate interpretation, all in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Finance APP</div></div>Editor in charge: Zhang Yujie SF107</p><p></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-08-18/doc-ikqciyzm2073752.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9c675b63dc378956d10eda9f8450b5","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-08-18/doc-ikqciyzm2073752.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2160783852","content_text":"腾讯控股本周将发布财报，股价重挫43%后等待触底反弹的投资者可能不会得到多少安慰。\n　　根据媒体对17位分析师的调查，预计这家科技巨头将报告第二季度净利润下降7.1%。这将是其2019年第三季度以来的首次盈利下滑。腾讯将于周三市场收盘后发布业绩报告。\n\n　　腾讯近期股价大跌，香港恒生指数过去六个月的跌幅有四分之一源于腾讯。\n　　不过，股价的下跌使得该股的估值更具吸引力。腾讯目前的预期市盈率约为21倍，低于其30倍左右的历史平均水平。安本标准投资的资深基金经理Hugh Young表示，他的公司逢低买入腾讯。\n　　即将发布的财报将考验分析师对该股的看涨态度。数据显示，在给腾讯评级的68位分析师中，63人建议买入。当前股价与分析师目标价之间差距65%，接近历史最高水平。\n　　摩根士丹利分析师Gary Yu等人表示，鉴于教育行业是一个主要广告收入源，这将在下半年对腾讯产生“重大”影响。\n　　摩根士丹利在7月的报告中还说，腾讯的云计算和增值服务业务可能部分抵消了疲软的广告前景。但其核心的游戏业务也面临着较高的同比基数，因为一年前Covid-19大流行推动了在线娱乐热潮。\n　　腾讯的近期前景仍然充满挑战性，分析师预计第三季度利润降幅将扩大至10%以上，将是腾讯首次连续两个季度利润下降。一些分析师认为，盈利疲软不会导致该股进一步下跌太多，特别是还有数字化转型等长期利好因素。\n　　“我们预计网络游戏的负面季节性因素已经被股价消化，”Jefferies分析师Thomas Chong等人在7月14日的一份报告中写道。“随着向工业互联网的转移和用户行为的变化，我们预计对企业服务、高产值游戏及短视频内容领域的投资将为该公司铺平道路。”\n\n股民福利！金牛、茅台、手机……任务“豪”礼，等你来拿>>\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：张玉洁 SF107","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":1,"TCEHY":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002453972,"gmtCreate":1642078847446,"gmtModify":1676533678512,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002453972","repostId":"2203763141","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002336586,"gmtCreate":1641912971493,"gmtModify":1676533661202,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002336586","repostId":"2202204160","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887752979,"gmtCreate":1632102033191,"gmtModify":1676530700710,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887752979","repostId":"1182753548","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182753548","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632093446,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182753548?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-20 07:17","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Preview: Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision! Kunbo Medical will be launched soon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182753548","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"事件方面：美国将公布利率决定上限。美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将举行为期两天的货币政策会议，市场将密切关注美联储何时开始缩减资产购买计划的信号。\n\n\n数据方面：美联储利率决定(上限)、美国至9","content":"<p><b>In terms of events:</b>The U.S. will announce a cap on interest rate decisions. The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold a two-day monetary policy meeting, and markets will be watching closely for signals on when the Fed will start tapering its asset purchase program.<b>In terms of data:</b>The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (upper limit), the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 18, and the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States for the week ending September 17 are worthy of attention.<b>Financial report:</b>Adobe, Nike, FedEx, Gaotu, New Oriental, etc. will announce financial reports one after another.<b>For new shares:</b>Kunbo Medical will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In addition to the central bank's decision, investors should also pay close attention to the latest developments in the global fight against the epidemic, the situation in the Middle East, the U.S. government debt ceiling, the U.S. government's tax increase and economic stimulus plan, etc. These fundamental news and data will bring greater volatility to the market. Next, let's count the timing of this week's blockbuster events.</p><p><b>Important economic data at a glance</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Monday, September 20: opening situation, China's Mid-Autumn Festival market closed, US real estate index</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/249cad0d1fc349a963c2046b613f748b\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the arrangement of the Mid-Autumn Festival in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen, September 19th to September 21st is a statutory holiday in the mainland, September 22nd is a public holiday in Hong Kong, and the A-share market will be closed on September 20th and 21st, while the Hong Kong stock market will open normally. The A-share market will open on September 22nd, and the Hong Kong stock market will open normally from September 23rd.</p><p><b>As for economic data,</b>Investors focus on the U.S. housing market index. At the same time, pay attention to the trend of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds, so as to find the direction of changes in market sentiment.</p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, September 21: RBA monetary policy meeting minutes, U.S. housing market data</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81529564792de14edd6f4181dfa8b247\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>As for economic data,</b>Pay attention to the US housing market data. Data show that U.S. house prices rose 18% year-on-year in July, the largest year-on-year increase in the 45 years since the index was compiled. At present, American house prices have increased by more than 41% since the peak of the real estate bubble era in 2006. At the same time, housing rental prices have also been rising all the way.</p><p><b>In terms of financial events,</b>Pay attention to the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting released by the Reserve Bank of Australia. In its September resolution, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the benchmark interest rate and the 3-year Treasury Bond yield target unchanged at 0.1%. The Reserve Bank of Australia stressed that rate hike conditions are not likely until 2024 at the earliest.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFIX\">Stitch Fix</a>Wait for financial reports to be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, September 22: Bank of Japan resolution, EIA crude oil inventories, Federal Reserve September resolution</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38cf13e2739bb97914526a632a78d618\" tg-width=\"1086\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>As for economic data,</b>Mainly focus on the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States for the week to September 17, and the one-year loan market quotation interest rate in China to September 22.</p><p><b>In terms of events, the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision.</b>The Bank of Japan said that if necessary, the Bank of Japan will further relax its policy and keep short-term and long-term interest rates at the current level or lower. Data show that as of June this year, Japan's total holdings of US debt reached US $1.277 trillion, making it the largest creditor of US overseas bonds.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GIS\">General Mills</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>Wait for financial reports to be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, September 23: U.S. initial jobless claims and manufacturing PMI, Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e0bef211bd86260884b53453a2b0742\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"734\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of economic data, the US Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates (upper limit) until September 22.</b>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) votes on Federal Funds rate by holding discussion meetings. They hold regular meetings eight times a year in Washington, D.C., and their meeting schedule is made public every year. The rise and fall of interest rates reflects the quality of the economy.</p><p><b>In terms of events, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced its interest rate decision, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference.</b>The Federal Reserve is the most watched central bank in the world. They are expected to start reducing the scale of monthly bond purchases as early as this month. This is an unconventional measure taken to stimulate the recovery of the U.S. economy since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out last year. However, due to some recent U.S. economic data falling short of expectations, the Federal Reserve may not take action until later this year.</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, September 24: German IFO business climate index, U.S. leading indicators, Fed official speeches</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/100bf8670e0bda28b08adad5fcba3b44\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Economic data</b>, pay attention to Japan's August core CPI annual rate, Germany's September IFO business climate index, etc.</p><p><b>Event aspect</b>，<b>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Vice Chairman Clarida, and Governor Bowman delivered speeches.</b>It is crucial to judge the direction of the Fed's policy, because this is Clarida's first statement since the Fed's decision on Wednesday.</p><p><b>New shares</b>, Kunbo Medical announced that the company will issue an IPO from September 13 to 16, and plans to issue 89.355 million shares, of which the Hong Kong offering accounts for 10%, the international offering accounts for 90%, and a 15% over-allotment option is attached; The offer price per share is HK $17.20-HK $18.70, and trading on the Stock Exchange is expected to begin on September 24 (Friday).</p><p>According to the prospectus, Kunbo Medical plans to enhance its influence in the Chinese and global interventional pulmonology market by increasing sales in existing hospitals, strengthening doctor education and patient interaction, and penetrating new hospitals.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview: Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision! Kunbo Medical will be launched soon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPreview: Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision! Kunbo Medical will be launched soon\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-20 07:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>In terms of events:</b>The U.S. will announce a cap on interest rate decisions. The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold a two-day monetary policy meeting, and markets will be watching closely for signals on when the Fed will start tapering its asset purchase program.<b>In terms of data:</b>The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (upper limit), the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 18, and the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States for the week ending September 17 are worthy of attention.<b>Financial report:</b>Adobe, Nike, FedEx, Gaotu, New Oriental, etc. will announce financial reports one after another.<b>For new shares:</b>Kunbo Medical will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In addition to the central bank's decision, investors should also pay close attention to the latest developments in the global fight against the epidemic, the situation in the Middle East, the U.S. government debt ceiling, the U.S. government's tax increase and economic stimulus plan, etc. These fundamental news and data will bring greater volatility to the market. Next, let's count the timing of this week's blockbuster events.</p><p><b>Important economic data at a glance</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Monday, September 20: opening situation, China's Mid-Autumn Festival market closed, US real estate index</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/249cad0d1fc349a963c2046b613f748b\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the arrangement of the Mid-Autumn Festival in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen, September 19th to September 21st is a statutory holiday in the mainland, September 22nd is a public holiday in Hong Kong, and the A-share market will be closed on September 20th and 21st, while the Hong Kong stock market will open normally. The A-share market will open on September 22nd, and the Hong Kong stock market will open normally from September 23rd.</p><p><b>As for economic data,</b>Investors focus on the U.S. housing market index. At the same time, pay attention to the trend of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds, so as to find the direction of changes in market sentiment.</p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, September 21: RBA monetary policy meeting minutes, U.S. housing market data</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81529564792de14edd6f4181dfa8b247\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>As for economic data,</b>Pay attention to the US housing market data. Data show that U.S. house prices rose 18% year-on-year in July, the largest year-on-year increase in the 45 years since the index was compiled. At present, American house prices have increased by more than 41% since the peak of the real estate bubble era in 2006. At the same time, housing rental prices have also been rising all the way.</p><p><b>In terms of financial events,</b>Pay attention to the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting released by the Reserve Bank of Australia. In its September resolution, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the benchmark interest rate and the 3-year Treasury Bond yield target unchanged at 0.1%. The Reserve Bank of Australia stressed that rate hike conditions are not likely until 2024 at the earliest.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFIX\">Stitch Fix</a>Wait for financial reports to be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, September 22: Bank of Japan resolution, EIA crude oil inventories, Federal Reserve September resolution</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38cf13e2739bb97914526a632a78d618\" tg-width=\"1086\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>As for economic data,</b>Mainly focus on the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States for the week to September 17, and the one-year loan market quotation interest rate in China to September 22.</p><p><b>In terms of events, the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision.</b>The Bank of Japan said that if necessary, the Bank of Japan will further relax its policy and keep short-term and long-term interest rates at the current level or lower. Data show that as of June this year, Japan's total holdings of US debt reached US $1.277 trillion, making it the largest creditor of US overseas bonds.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GIS\">General Mills</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>Wait for financial reports to be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, September 23: U.S. initial jobless claims and manufacturing PMI, Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e0bef211bd86260884b53453a2b0742\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"734\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of economic data, the US Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates (upper limit) until September 22.</b>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) votes on Federal Funds rate by holding discussion meetings. They hold regular meetings eight times a year in Washington, D.C., and their meeting schedule is made public every year. The rise and fall of interest rates reflects the quality of the economy.</p><p><b>In terms of events, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced its interest rate decision, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference.</b>The Federal Reserve is the most watched central bank in the world. They are expected to start reducing the scale of monthly bond purchases as early as this month. This is an unconventional measure taken to stimulate the recovery of the U.S. economy since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out last year. However, due to some recent U.S. economic data falling short of expectations, the Federal Reserve may not take action until later this year.</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, September 24: German IFO business climate index, U.S. leading indicators, Fed official speeches</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/100bf8670e0bda28b08adad5fcba3b44\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Economic data</b>, pay attention to Japan's August core CPI annual rate, Germany's September IFO business climate index, etc.</p><p><b>Event aspect</b>，<b>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Vice Chairman Clarida, and Governor Bowman delivered speeches.</b>It is crucial to judge the direction of the Fed's policy, because this is Clarida's first statement since the Fed's decision on Wednesday.</p><p><b>New shares</b>, Kunbo Medical announced that the company will issue an IPO from September 13 to 16, and plans to issue 89.355 million shares, of which the Hong Kong offering accounts for 10%, the international offering accounts for 90%, and a 15% over-allotment option is attached; The offer price per share is HK $17.20-HK $18.70, and trading on the Stock Exchange is expected to begin on September 24 (Friday).</p><p>According to the prospectus, Kunbo Medical plans to enhance its influence in the Chinese and global interventional pulmonology market by increasing sales in existing hospitals, strengthening doctor education and patient interaction, and penetrating new hospitals.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46744ceebcd5f9f6cbe09f85295d7cfe","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182753548","content_text":"事件方面：美国将公布利率决定上限。美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将举行为期两天的货币政策会议，市场将密切关注美联储何时开始缩减资产购买计划的信号。\n\n\n数据方面：美联储利率决定(上限)、美国至9月18日当周初请失业金人数、美国至9月17日当周EIA原油库存等值得关注。\n\n\n财报方面：Adobe、Nike、联邦快递、高途、新东方等将陆续公布财报。\n\n\n新股方面：堃博医疗将在港交所上市。\n\n除了央行决议，投资者还要密切关注全球抗疫的最新进展、中东局势、美国政府债务上限、美国政府的加税和经济刺激计划等，这些基本面的消息和数据会给本的市场带来更大波动。接下来让我们细数本周重磅事件的时点。\n重要经济数据一览\n9月20日周一关键词：开盘情况，中国中秋节休市，美国房产指数根据沪港深三地中秋期间安排，9月19日到9月21日为内地法定假期，9月22日为香港公众假期，9月20日、9月21日A股休市，港股正常开市，9月22日A股开市，港股休市，9月23日起A港股市正常开市。\n经济数据方面，投资者重点关注美国的房产市场指数。同时关注美股和美债的走势，从而找到市场情绪变化的方向。\n9月21日周二关键词：澳洲联储货币政策会议纪要，美国房市数据经济数据方面，关注美国房市数据。数据显示，7月份美国房价同比上涨18%，创该指数编制45年来最大的同比涨幅。当前的美国房价较2006年房地产泡沫时代高峰以来已增长逾41%。与此同时，房屋租赁价格也一路走高。\n财经事件方面，关注澳洲联储公布9月货币政策会议纪要。澳洲联储在9月决议中，将基准利率及3年期国债收益率目标均维持在0.1％不变。澳洲联储强调， 加息条件最早要到2024年才可能出现。\n财报方面，联邦快递、Adobe、Stitch Fix等将公布财报。\n9月22日周三关键词：日本央行决议，EIA原油库存，美联储9月决议经济数据方面，主要关注美国至9月17日当周EIA原油库存，中国至9月22日一年期贷款市场报价利率。\n事件方面，日本央行公布利率决议。日本央行称，如果有必要，日本央行将会进一步放宽政策，短期、长期利率维持在目前或更低的水平。数据显示，截止到今年6月，日本持有美债总额达1.277万亿美元，是美国海外债券的第一大债主国。\n财报方面，通用磨坊、高途、黑莓等将公布财报。\n9月23日周四关键词：美国初请失业金和制造业PMI，美联储利率决定(上限)经济数据方面，美国至9月22日美联储利率决定(上限)。联邦公开市场委员会(The Federal Open Market Committee ，简称 FOMC)通过举行讨论会议投票决定联邦基金利率，它们每年都要在华盛顿特区召开八次例行会议，其会议日程安排表每年都会向公众公开。利率的升降，反映了经济的好坏。\n事件方面，美联储FOMC公布利率决议，美联储主席鲍威尔召开新闻发布会。美联储是全世界最受瞩目的央行，他们最早有望在本月开启减少每月购债规模，这是去年新冠疫情爆发以来为刺激美国经济复苏而采取的非常规手段。但由于近期美国一些经济数据不及预期，因此美联储也可能会在今年晚些时候才开始行动。\n9月24日周五关键词：德国IFO商业景气指数，美国领先指标，美联储官员讲话经济数据方面，关注日本8月核心CPI年率、德国9月IFO商业景气指数等。\n事件方面，美联储主席鲍威尔、副主席克拉里达、理事鲍曼发表讲话。对于判断美联储的政策走向很关键，因为这是美联储周三决议之后的克拉里达的首次表态。\n新股方面，堃博医疗公布，公司于9月13日-16日招股，拟发行8935.5万股股份，其中香港发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附有15%超额配股权；每股发售价17.20港元-18.70港元，预期将于9月24日（周五）开始在联交所开始买卖。\n招股书中显示，堃博医疗计划通过提高在现有医院中的销售额，以及加强医生教育和患者互动，渗透新的医院，来增强其在中国和全球介入性肺病学市场的影响力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9006423006,"gmtCreate":1641823707230,"gmtModify":1676533650971,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9006423006","repostId":"1138761582","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138761582","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1641823989,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138761582?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-10 22:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Rate hike is expected to impact technology stocks and switch to value stocks in 2022? What does Wall Street think?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138761582","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美联储越发鹰派的立场促使投资者抛弃快速成长的科技公司的股票，转而投向银行股、能源股等对经济敏感的股票。一些华尔街顶级公司认为，价值型股票有望在2022年继续大放异彩，不过，近来表现逊色的成长股并没有被","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Fed's increasingly hawkish stance has prompted investors to abandon the stocks of fast-growing technology companies in favor of economically sensitive stocks such as banking stocks and energy stocks. Some of Wall Street's top companies believe value stocks are poised to continue to shine in 2022, but growth stocks that have underperformed recently have not been completely dismissed.</p><p>In the face of rising inflation, the Federal Reserve has accelerated the pace of tapering asset purchases and released signals that it may advance rate hike and even shrinking balance sheet. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders are currently betting on a nearly 70% chance of the Fed's March rate hike. If the U.S. CPI inflation rate data released this week rises again, rate hike is expected to heat up further. Predictably, highly speculative tech stocks will bear the brunt. The high stock prices of fast-growing and loss-making technology companies are based on their potential future returns and are considered extremely vulnerable to rising interest rates, thus weakening potential future returns.</p><p>As Hani Redha, portfolio manager of PineBridge Investments, said, \"Speculative technology stocks are being destroyed.\" The technology-dominated Nasdaq Composite Index fell 4.5% in the first week of 2022, its worst start to the year in six years. Goldman Sachs' index shows that shares of loss-making technology companies have fallen about 10% this year. The bank estimates that companies that can generate strong growth regardless of the ups and downs of the U.S. economy have fallen by more than 8%.</p><p>The plunge in technology stocks came as U.S. Treasury Bond yields posted their biggest gain in 28 months, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumping to 1.8% from 1.5% at the end of 2021, hitting a nearly two-year high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/810b0a3facde719110044db960d567df\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro strategy at Fidelity Investments, said: \"It went to the moon (before speculative tech stocks), and now the liquidity tide is reversing.\"</p><p>As yields rise, the fate of previously underappreciated value stocks is also being rewritten, with share prices of banks, oil majors, large industrial groups, and especially those closely related to the reopening of the U.S. economy all rising.</p><p>Judging from the performance of each sector of the S&P 500 Index in 2021, among the four sectors that outperformed the broader market, three (energy, real estate, and finance) belong to value sectors, indicating that such stocks are quite popular among investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e02eb5ca007e065bcbac5c4cab84d32\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the first week of 2022, while the S&P 500 index fell 1.87%, value stocks managed to rise. The Russell 1000 Value Index rose 0.75% that week, outperforming the Russell 1000 Growth Index by more than 5 percentage points, the highest level in a comparable period since records began in 1991, reflecting the shift in the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2aa2ceb3e48d4c914b239ec09831a79\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Stick to cyclical bets, said Solita Marcelli, head of investments for the Americas, investment director at UBS Wealth Management.</b>She wrote: \"Growth companies have been the main beneficiaries of ultra-low real and nominal interest rates. It is logical that these stocks will face the strongest headwinds as the Fed begins to normalize policy.<b>In U.S. stocks, we still favor value over growth stocks</b>。”</p><p><b>UBS expects value stocks to have a good chance of outperforming growth stocks at the beginning of the first quarter of 2022, but this momentum will not last.</b>Strong inflation and the labor market should keep breakeven inflation high (helping value stocks more than growth stocks) and real interest rates rising (hurting growth stocks more than value stocks), but the continued shift to value stocks The case for stocks is more driven by an exit from growth stocks than by a strong shift to value stocks. UBS believes that growth stocks will overtake by the second quarter of 2022.</p><p>Given the leverage on rising interest rates and inflation,<b>Morgan Stanley is also slightly biased towards value stocks in the short term</b>, rather than growth stocks. At the same time, the bank noted: \"We believe that the fascination with value vs. growth stocks will begin to fade as special risks become key.\" In Morgan Stanley's view, overall, 2022 is more about individual stocks than sectors or styles.</p><p><b>Also bullish on value stocks are Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase.</b>Bank of America gave five reasons for this: 1) Valuation dispersion is still close to historical highs, and high dispersion in history indicates a period when value stocks perform well; 2) If the epidemic is contained, value stocks may outperform growth stocks; 3) Most indicators show that value stocks are not expensive; 4) From the perspective of factors and sectors, investors still overweight growth stocks and underweight value stocks; 5) The Fed rate hike cycle favors value stocks.</p><p>Cyclical assets and value stocks will outperform, riskier and more volatile assets will rebound, while defensive bond alternatives and market segments that have benefited from the pandemic will encounter headwinds, JPMorgan said. The bank prefers reflation-sensitive sectors-energy and financials, consumer services, healthcare, and small-cap stocks.</p><p><b>BlackRock tends to allocate a mix of cyclical value stocks, such as energy and financials, with long-term structural growth stocks, such as technology and healthcare, as it did last year</b>。 Without the propellant to drive key markets forward on average in 2021, it will be important to focus on fundamental research to distinguish potential winners from losers, the company said.</p><p><b>Goldman Sachs' view is to buy cyclical stocks that are sensitive to the epidemic and inflation, as well as high-growth, high-profit stocks, while avoiding companies with high labor costs and high-growth, unprofitable companies</b>。 Goldman's reasoning is that in the short term, strong economic growth and peaking inflation should support cyclical stocks to outperform; Fast-growing companies that rely entirely on long-term growth expectations are more vulnerable to the risk of rising interest rates or disappointing revenues.</p><p><b>Wells Fargo Investment Institute favors growth and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors</b>。 \"Look for assets that perform well when inflation is above average. Be cautious about yield-sensitive assets,\" the agency said.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rate hike is expected to impact technology stocks and switch to value stocks in 2022? What does Wall Street think?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRate hike is expected to impact technology stocks and switch to value stocks in 2022? What does Wall Street think?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-10 22:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Fed's increasingly hawkish stance has prompted investors to abandon the stocks of fast-growing technology companies in favor of economically sensitive stocks such as banking stocks and energy stocks. Some of Wall Street's top companies believe value stocks are poised to continue to shine in 2022, but growth stocks that have underperformed recently have not been completely dismissed.</p><p>In the face of rising inflation, the Federal Reserve has accelerated the pace of tapering asset purchases and released signals that it may advance rate hike and even shrinking balance sheet. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders are currently betting on a nearly 70% chance of the Fed's March rate hike. If the U.S. CPI inflation rate data released this week rises again, rate hike is expected to heat up further. Predictably, highly speculative tech stocks will bear the brunt. The high stock prices of fast-growing and loss-making technology companies are based on their potential future returns and are considered extremely vulnerable to rising interest rates, thus weakening potential future returns.</p><p>As Hani Redha, portfolio manager of PineBridge Investments, said, \"Speculative technology stocks are being destroyed.\" The technology-dominated Nasdaq Composite Index fell 4.5% in the first week of 2022, its worst start to the year in six years. Goldman Sachs' index shows that shares of loss-making technology companies have fallen about 10% this year. The bank estimates that companies that can generate strong growth regardless of the ups and downs of the U.S. economy have fallen by more than 8%.</p><p>The plunge in technology stocks came as U.S. Treasury Bond yields posted their biggest gain in 28 months, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumping to 1.8% from 1.5% at the end of 2021, hitting a nearly two-year high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/810b0a3facde719110044db960d567df\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro strategy at Fidelity Investments, said: \"It went to the moon (before speculative tech stocks), and now the liquidity tide is reversing.\"</p><p>As yields rise, the fate of previously underappreciated value stocks is also being rewritten, with share prices of banks, oil majors, large industrial groups, and especially those closely related to the reopening of the U.S. economy all rising.</p><p>Judging from the performance of each sector of the S&P 500 Index in 2021, among the four sectors that outperformed the broader market, three (energy, real estate, and finance) belong to value sectors, indicating that such stocks are quite popular among investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e02eb5ca007e065bcbac5c4cab84d32\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the first week of 2022, while the S&P 500 index fell 1.87%, value stocks managed to rise. The Russell 1000 Value Index rose 0.75% that week, outperforming the Russell 1000 Growth Index by more than 5 percentage points, the highest level in a comparable period since records began in 1991, reflecting the shift in the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2aa2ceb3e48d4c914b239ec09831a79\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Stick to cyclical bets, said Solita Marcelli, head of investments for the Americas, investment director at UBS Wealth Management.</b>She wrote: \"Growth companies have been the main beneficiaries of ultra-low real and nominal interest rates. It is logical that these stocks will face the strongest headwinds as the Fed begins to normalize policy.<b>In U.S. stocks, we still favor value over growth stocks</b>。”</p><p><b>UBS expects value stocks to have a good chance of outperforming growth stocks at the beginning of the first quarter of 2022, but this momentum will not last.</b>Strong inflation and the labor market should keep breakeven inflation high (helping value stocks more than growth stocks) and real interest rates rising (hurting growth stocks more than value stocks), but the continued shift to value stocks The case for stocks is more driven by an exit from growth stocks than by a strong shift to value stocks. UBS believes that growth stocks will overtake by the second quarter of 2022.</p><p>Given the leverage on rising interest rates and inflation,<b>Morgan Stanley is also slightly biased towards value stocks in the short term</b>, rather than growth stocks. At the same time, the bank noted: \"We believe that the fascination with value vs. growth stocks will begin to fade as special risks become key.\" In Morgan Stanley's view, overall, 2022 is more about individual stocks than sectors or styles.</p><p><b>Also bullish on value stocks are Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase.</b>Bank of America gave five reasons for this: 1) Valuation dispersion is still close to historical highs, and high dispersion in history indicates a period when value stocks perform well; 2) If the epidemic is contained, value stocks may outperform growth stocks; 3) Most indicators show that value stocks are not expensive; 4) From the perspective of factors and sectors, investors still overweight growth stocks and underweight value stocks; 5) The Fed rate hike cycle favors value stocks.</p><p>Cyclical assets and value stocks will outperform, riskier and more volatile assets will rebound, while defensive bond alternatives and market segments that have benefited from the pandemic will encounter headwinds, JPMorgan said. The bank prefers reflation-sensitive sectors-energy and financials, consumer services, healthcare, and small-cap stocks.</p><p><b>BlackRock tends to allocate a mix of cyclical value stocks, such as energy and financials, with long-term structural growth stocks, such as technology and healthcare, as it did last year</b>。 Without the propellant to drive key markets forward on average in 2021, it will be important to focus on fundamental research to distinguish potential winners from losers, the company said.</p><p><b>Goldman Sachs' view is to buy cyclical stocks that are sensitive to the epidemic and inflation, as well as high-growth, high-profit stocks, while avoiding companies with high labor costs and high-growth, unprofitable companies</b>。 Goldman's reasoning is that in the short term, strong economic growth and peaking inflation should support cyclical stocks to outperform; Fast-growing companies that rely entirely on long-term growth expectations are more vulnerable to the risk of rising interest rates or disappointing revenues.</p><p><b>Wells Fargo Investment Institute favors growth and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors</b>。 \"Look for assets that perform well when inflation is above average. Be cautious about yield-sensitive assets,\" the agency said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f0a252f951b7accc03d40bda92a3b2","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138761582","content_text":"美联储越发鹰派的立场促使投资者抛弃快速成长的科技公司的股票，转而投向银行股、能源股等对经济敏感的股票。一些华尔街顶级公司认为，价值型股票有望在2022年继续大放异彩，不过，近来表现逊色的成长股并没有被全盘否定。面对不断攀升的通胀，美联储已加快缩减资产购买规模的步伐，并释放可能提前加息、甚至缩表的信号。根据CME的FedWatch工具，目前交易员押注美联储3月加息的可能性接近70%。若本周公布的美国CPI通胀率数据再度升高，加息预期或将进一步升温。可以预见的是，具有高度投机性的科技股将首当其冲。那些成长迅速和亏损的科技公司的高股价是基于其未来可能获得丰厚收益，被认为极易受到利率上升的影响，从而削弱潜在的未来收益。正如PineBridge Investments投资组合经理Hani Redha所说，“投机性科技股正在被摧毁”，以科技股为主的美股纳斯达克综合指数在2022年首周下跌4.5%，为六年来最差开年表现。高盛的指数显示，亏损科技公司的股价今年以来已下跌约10%。该行估计，那些无论美国经济如何起伏都能产生强劲增长的公司已下跌逾8%。科技股大跌之际，美国国债收益率创下28个月来最大涨幅，基准10年期美债收益率从2021年底的1.5%跃升至1.8%，触及近两年高位。Fidelity Investments全球宏观策略主管Jurrien Timmer称：“（投机性科技股之前）升上了月球，现在流动性大潮正在逆转。”随着收益率走高，此前不被看好的价值型股票的命运也在改写，银行、石油巨头、大型工业集团，尤其是那些与美国经济重新开放息息相关的公司股价均出现上扬。从标普500指数各板块2021全年的表现来看，在跑赢大盘的四个板块中，有三个（能源、房地产、金融）属于价值型板块，说明这类股票在投资者中颇具人气。2022年第一周，标普500指数下跌1.87%的同时，价值股成功实现上涨。当周罗素1000价值指数上涨0.75%，表现优于罗素1000成长指数5个百分点以上，为1991年有记录以来可比时期的最高水平，反映出市场的转变。瑞银财富管理投资总监美洲区投资主管Solita Marcelli表示，坚持周期性押注。她写道：“成长型公司一直是超低实际利率和名义利率的主要受益者。随着美联储开始政策正常化，这些股票将面临最强大的阻力，这点合乎逻辑。在美国股市中，我们依然青睐价值股而非成长股。”瑞银预计，2022年第一季度初价值股很有可能跑赢成长股，但这一势头不会持久。该行表示，强劲的通胀和劳动力市场应该会使盈亏平衡通胀率保持在高位（对价值股的帮助大于成长股）和实际利率上升（对成长股的伤害大于价值股） ，但持续转向价值股的理由更多是由撤离成长股所驱动，而不是由强势转向价值股所驱动。瑞银认为，到2022年第二季度成长股将实现反超。鉴于在利率和通胀上升方面的杠杆作用，摩根士丹利短期内也略微偏向价值股，而非成长股。该行同时指出：“我们认为，随着特殊风险成为关键，对价值股与成长股的迷恋将开始消退。”在大摩看来，总体而言，2022年更多的是关于个股，而不是行业或风格。看好价值股的还有美国银行和摩根大通。美银就此给出五点理由：1）估值离散度仍接近历史高位，历史上高离散度预示价值股表现出色的时期；2）若疫情得到遏制，价值股可能跑赢成长股；3）大多数指标显示价值股估值不贵；4）从因子和板块层面来看，投资者仍超配成长股、低配价值股；5）美联储加息周期有利于价值股。摩根大通称，周期性资产和价值股将会跑赢，风险更高、波动更大的资产将反弹，而防御性债券替代股和在疫情中受惠的市场细分领域将遭遇逆风。该行偏好对再通胀敏感的板块——能源和金融、消费服务、医疗保健以及小盘股。贝莱德倾向于像去年那样配置周期性价值股（如能源股和金融股）与长期结构性成长股（如科技股和医疗保健股）的组合。该公司表示，若缺少推动2021年关键市场平均向前发展的推进剂的话，专注于基本面研究以区分潜在的赢家和输家将会很重要。高盛的观点是，买入对疫情和通胀敏感的周期性股票，以及高成长、高利润的股票，同时，规避高劳动力成本的公司以及高成长、不赚钱的公司。高盛的理由是，短期内，强劲的经济增长和通胀率触顶应该会支持周期性股票跑赢；而完全依赖长期增长预期的快速成长的公司更易受到利率上升或营收令人失望的风险的影响。富国银行投资研究所对成长型股票和周期性股票的青睐胜过防御性板块。该机构称：“寻找在通胀高于平均水平时表现良好的资产。谨慎看待对收益率敏感的资产。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814452372,"gmtCreate":1630881056996,"gmtModify":1676530408219,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/814452372","repostId":"1164269750","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986274431,"gmtCreate":1666971111523,"gmtModify":1676537842846,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986274431","repostId":"1185917497","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934222382,"gmtCreate":1663260443546,"gmtModify":1676537239038,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934222382","repostId":"2267068823","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2267068823","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663254748,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2267068823?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-15 23:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tightening expectations are rising again! U.S. mortgage interest rate exceeds 6% mark for the first time since 2008","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2267068823","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高涨的房贷利率严重挤压房地产贷款需求，更多的购房者开始持币观望。伴随着美联储政策持续收紧，美国最受欢迎的住房贷款平均利率自2008年以来首次升至6%以上。抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）数据显示，截至9月","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The rising mortgage interest rate has severely squeezed the demand for real estate loans, and more property buyers have begun to wait and see. As the Federal Reserve continues to tighten policy, the average interest rate on the most popular home loan in the United States rose above 6% for the first time since 2008.</p><p>According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate in the United States rose to 6.01% in the week ending September 9, breaking the 6% mark for the first time since 2008 and twice that of the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d221eff5a83aecbb6996b21f7f45d5a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Soaring mortgage interest rates have severely squeezed the demand for real estate loans.</b>Mortgage home purchase applications fell 29% for the week ending Sept. 9 compared to the same period in 2021. The Market Composite Index, which measures mortgage applications, fell 1.2% from the previous week. The MBA Refinance Index is down 4% from the previous week and 83% from the same period last year. Joel Kan, the MBA's vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said,<b>Rising mortgage rates are causing more homebuyers to sit on the sidelines.</b></p><p>As the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the entire U.S. real estate industry is affected by higher interest rates. Previous data showed that new home sales in the United States in July were 12.6% higher than the previous month, which was significantly lower than the expected 2.5% decline. New home sales fell month-on-month in six of the past seven months. Sales shrank to their lowest level in six and a half years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3a07a596f24e18a871d1e6cc1b627a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While sales were sluggish, new home inventories in the United States were high. As of the end of July, there were 464,000 new homes for sale, the most since 2008. At the current pace of sales, it will take 10.9 months to empty the supply of new homes, the highest inventory-to-sales ratio since March 2009 and almost double that at the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5da9e4aaf175e9be328df0ab07033077\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Although the new home market only accounts for 10% of the U.S. property market, the sales of new homes are calculated according to the data at the time of signing the purchase contract, which is different from the sales of existing homes after signing the contract and then included in the statistics, so it is regarded as the leading indicator of the U.S. property market.<b>Some market analysts believe that in view of the plunge in housing mortgage loan applications, new home sales are expected to fall further in the future.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tightening expectations are rising again! U.S. mortgage interest rate exceeds 6% mark for the first time since 2008</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTightening expectations are rising again! U.S. mortgage interest rate exceeds 6% mark for the first time since 2008\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-15 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The rising mortgage interest rate has severely squeezed the demand for real estate loans, and more property buyers have begun to wait and see. As the Federal Reserve continues to tighten policy, the average interest rate on the most popular home loan in the United States rose above 6% for the first time since 2008.</p><p>According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate in the United States rose to 6.01% in the week ending September 9, breaking the 6% mark for the first time since 2008 and twice that of the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d221eff5a83aecbb6996b21f7f45d5a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Soaring mortgage interest rates have severely squeezed the demand for real estate loans.</b>Mortgage home purchase applications fell 29% for the week ending Sept. 9 compared to the same period in 2021. The Market Composite Index, which measures mortgage applications, fell 1.2% from the previous week. The MBA Refinance Index is down 4% from the previous week and 83% from the same period last year. Joel Kan, the MBA's vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said,<b>Rising mortgage rates are causing more homebuyers to sit on the sidelines.</b></p><p>As the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the entire U.S. real estate industry is affected by higher interest rates. Previous data showed that new home sales in the United States in July were 12.6% higher than the previous month, which was significantly lower than the expected 2.5% decline. New home sales fell month-on-month in six of the past seven months. Sales shrank to their lowest level in six and a half years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3a07a596f24e18a871d1e6cc1b627a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While sales were sluggish, new home inventories in the United States were high. As of the end of July, there were 464,000 new homes for sale, the most since 2008. At the current pace of sales, it will take 10.9 months to empty the supply of new homes, the highest inventory-to-sales ratio since March 2009 and almost double that at the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5da9e4aaf175e9be328df0ab07033077\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Although the new home market only accounts for 10% of the U.S. property market, the sales of new homes are calculated according to the data at the time of signing the purchase contract, which is different from the sales of existing homes after signing the contract and then included in the statistics, so it is regarded as the leading indicator of the U.S. property market.<b>Some market analysts believe that in view of the plunge in housing mortgage loan applications, new home sales are expected to fall further in the future.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670388\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670388","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2267068823","content_text":"高涨的房贷利率严重挤压房地产贷款需求，更多的购房者开始持币观望。伴随着美联储政策持续收紧，美国最受欢迎的住房贷款平均利率自2008年以来首次升至6%以上。抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）数据显示，截至9月9日当周，美国30年期固定抵押贷款利率升至6.01%，为2008年以来首次突破6%关口，是去年同期的两倍。高涨的房贷利率严重挤压房地产贷款需求。截至9月9日当周，抵押贷款购房申请比2021年同期下降了29%。衡量抵押贷款申请量的市场综合指数较前一周下降了1.2%。MBA再融资指数较前一周下降了4%，较去年同期下降了83%。MBA负责经济和行业预测的副总裁Joel Kan表示，抵押贷款利率上升导致更多购房者持币观望。伴随着美联储持续升息，整个美国房地产行业都受到更高利率的影响。此前数据显示，美国7月新屋销售环比大12.6%，大幅不及预期的下跌2.5%，新屋销售在过去七个月中，有六个月环比下跌。销售量萎缩至六年半以来的最低水平。销售萎靡的同时，美国新屋库存高企。截至7月末，有46.4万套新房待售，为2008年以来最多。按照目前的销售速度计算，将需要10.9个月才能清空新房供应，这是自2009年3月以来的最高库销比，几乎是今年年初的两倍。新屋市场虽仅占美国楼市的一成，但新屋销售按照签订购房合同之时的数据计算，与签约完成再纳入统计的成屋销售有所区别，因此被视为美国楼市的领先指标。有市场分析认为，鉴于房屋按揭贷款申请的暴跌，新屋销售未来预计仍将进一步下跌。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051335618,"gmtCreate":1654644895034,"gmtModify":1676535482645,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051335618","repostId":"2241270077","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051335184,"gmtCreate":1654644877348,"gmtModify":1676535482645,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051335184","repostId":"2241907023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2241907023","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654643193,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2241907023?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-08 07:06","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America strategist: Investors don't think a U.S. recession is coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2241907023","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"策略师们表示， 美国银行客户并不认为经济衰退即将来临，自2021年7月以来，流入美国周期性股票的资金继续超过流入防御性股票的资金。Jill Carey Hall等策略师在报告中写道，美银客户上周成为美国股票的净买家，散户客户居首。客户买入单一股票，ETF则出现1月以来最大资金流出；中型股被买入，大盘股和小盘股遭抛售。需要注意到的是，随着财报季结束，股票回购速度较前一周有所放缓。策略师表示，标普500指数11个行业板块中8个走高，科技和非必需消费品股领涨。股民福利来了！十大金股送给你，带你掘金“黄金坑”！点击查看>>","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Strategists said,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Clients don't think a recession is imminent, and inflows into U.S. cyclical stocks have continued to outweigh inflows into defensive stocks since July 2021.</p><p>Strategists such as Jill Carey Hall wrote in the report that Bank of America clients became net buyers of U.S. stocks last week, with retail clients leading the way.</p><p>Customers buy a single stock,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>There will be the largest capital outflow since January; Mid-cap stocks were bought and large-cap and small-cap stocks were sold off.</p><p>It's important to note that as earnings season ends, the pace of share buybacks has slowed from the previous week.</p><p>Eight of the 11 industry sectors in the S&P 500 were higher, led by technology and consumer discretionary stocks, strategists said.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America strategist: Investors don't think a U.S. recession is coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America strategist: Investors don't think a U.S. recession is coming\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-08 07:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Strategists said,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Clients don't think a recession is imminent, and inflows into U.S. cyclical stocks have continued to outweigh inflows into defensive stocks since July 2021.</p><p>Strategists such as Jill Carey Hall wrote in the report that Bank of America clients became net buyers of U.S. stocks last week, with retail clients leading the way.</p><p>Customers buy a single stock,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>There will be the largest capital outflow since January; Mid-cap stocks were bought and large-cap and small-cap stocks were sold off.</p><p>It's important to note that as earnings season ends, the pace of share buybacks has slowed from the previous week.</p><p>Eight of the 11 industry sectors in the S&P 500 were higher, led by technology and consumer discretionary stocks, strategists said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-07/doc-imizmscu5622440.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e9ba109e7f6844f2904f6647779f151","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BAC":"美国银行","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-07/doc-imizmscu5622440.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2241907023","content_text":"策略师们表示， 美国银行客户并不认为经济衰退即将来临，自2021年7月以来，流入美国周期性股票的资金继续超过流入防御性股票的资金。Jill Carey Hall等策略师在报告中写道，美银客户上周成为美国股票的净买家，散户客户居首。客户买入单一股票，Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF则出现1月以来最大资金流出；中型股被买入，大盘股和小盘股遭抛售。需要注意到的是，随着财报季结束，股票回购速度较前一周有所放缓。策略师表示，标普500指数11个行业板块中8个走高，科技和非必需消费品股领涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"ESmain":0.6,"BAC":0.9,"OEF":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026716183,"gmtCreate":1653435386942,"gmtModify":1676535280138,"author":{"id":"4089010487435940","authorId":"4089010487435940","name":"yapfuiping","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a27fbd615737b61aec5a628994a8a59","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089010487435940","idStr":"4089010487435940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026716183","repostId":"2238130573","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2238130573","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653434786,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2238130573?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-25 07:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When will U.S. stocks fall? When will the Fed panic so that the market will not panic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238130573","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美银发布报告前一天，高盛周一报告称，和2018年类似，一个潜在的衰退风险信号就足以让美联储放弃持续紧缩。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Monday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up collectively for the first time in the last four trading days. On Tuesday, they fell across the board. The S&P 500 fell more than 2% intraday, and fell into the bear market range again after last Friday, compared with the record high in January this year. More than 20%.</p><p>When will U.S. stocks bottom out? On this issue, the two major Wall Street institutions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Holding the same view, they all believe that U.S. stocks may have to fall until the Federal Reserve signals an end to monetary tightening.</p><p>On Tuesday, 24th Eastern Time, Bank of America strategists such as Benjamin Bowler released a report saying that the Federal Reserve has not provided any help to risky assets and seems to be far from starting to lend a helping hand. It pointed out that judging from past Fed interventions, indicators of market pressure such as liquidity and credit spreads of S&P 500 futures are currently at pre-Fed intervention levels.</p><p>The above-mentioned Bank of America strategist said in the report that we believe the market will continue to test the \"Fed put option\"-that is, the market view that the Fed will intervene to curb the decline if the stock market falls. But these strategists point out that,</p><p>\"There will be more market panic before the Fed starts panicking.\" The Bank of America report came a day after Goldman Sachs strategist Vickie Chang released a report on Monday saying that the Fed is unlikely to turn to easing policy without the U.S. economy entering a significant recession. But similar to 2018, a potential recession risk signal is enough for the Fed to abandon continued tightening.</p><p>Chang pointed out that historically, the Fed's monetary tightening usually ended three months before the stock market actually bottomed out, and turned to easing two months after the stock market bottomed out. Stock market corrections triggered by monetary tightening tend to bottom out when the Federal Reserve turns accommodative, regardless of whether real economic activity bottoms out.</p><p>Chang believes that investors are unlikely to get a clear signal of policy shift from the Fed at present, unless there is conclusive evidence that economic growth is slowing down and prices are cooling. Markets need to see signs of decelerating inflation to see a pivot in monetary policy. Goldman Sachs currently expects U.S. inflation to slow significantly in the second half of the year.</p><p>Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve just decided to issue a 50 basis point rate hike for the first time in 22 years. Fed President Jerome Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that the next two meetings in June and July may be suitable for this range of rate hike. Last Tuesday, Powell reiterated that it may be appropriate to continue rate hike's 50 basis point pace at the two meetings in June and July.</p><p>On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the Fed may issue a 50 basis point rate hike at each of its next two meetings, adding that he believes it is reasonable to stop rate hike in September. However, the senior Fed official who released dovish remarks does not have the right to vote at the FOMC meeting of the Fed Monetary Committee this year, and it will be his turn to enjoy the right to vote in 2024.</p><p>St. Louis Fed President Bullard, the voting committee who has FOMC voting rights this year, also said on Friday: \"We should try to get the Federal Funds rate to 3.50% by the end of 2022.\" That means 50 basis points per rate hike at all the Fed meetings for the rest of the year.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When will U.S. stocks fall? When will the Fed panic so that the market will not panic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen will U.S. stocks fall? When will the Fed panic so that the market will not panic\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-25 07:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Monday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up collectively for the first time in the last four trading days. On Tuesday, they fell across the board. The S&P 500 fell more than 2% intraday, and fell into the bear market range again after last Friday, compared with the record high in January this year. More than 20%.</p><p>When will U.S. stocks bottom out? On this issue, the two major Wall Street institutions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Holding the same view, they all believe that U.S. stocks may have to fall until the Federal Reserve signals an end to monetary tightening.</p><p>On Tuesday, 24th Eastern Time, Bank of America strategists such as Benjamin Bowler released a report saying that the Federal Reserve has not provided any help to risky assets and seems to be far from starting to lend a helping hand. It pointed out that judging from past Fed interventions, indicators of market pressure such as liquidity and credit spreads of S&P 500 futures are currently at pre-Fed intervention levels.</p><p>The above-mentioned Bank of America strategist said in the report that we believe the market will continue to test the \"Fed put option\"-that is, the market view that the Fed will intervene to curb the decline if the stock market falls. But these strategists point out that,</p><p>\"There will be more market panic before the Fed starts panicking.\" The Bank of America report came a day after Goldman Sachs strategist Vickie Chang released a report on Monday saying that the Fed is unlikely to turn to easing policy without the U.S. economy entering a significant recession. But similar to 2018, a potential recession risk signal is enough for the Fed to abandon continued tightening.</p><p>Chang pointed out that historically, the Fed's monetary tightening usually ended three months before the stock market actually bottomed out, and turned to easing two months after the stock market bottomed out. Stock market corrections triggered by monetary tightening tend to bottom out when the Federal Reserve turns accommodative, regardless of whether real economic activity bottoms out.</p><p>Chang believes that investors are unlikely to get a clear signal of policy shift from the Fed at present, unless there is conclusive evidence that economic growth is slowing down and prices are cooling. Markets need to see signs of decelerating inflation to see a pivot in monetary policy. Goldman Sachs currently expects U.S. inflation to slow significantly in the second half of the year.</p><p>Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve just decided to issue a 50 basis point rate hike for the first time in 22 years. Fed President Jerome Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that the next two meetings in June and July may be suitable for this range of rate hike. Last Tuesday, Powell reiterated that it may be appropriate to continue rate hike's 50 basis point pace at the two meetings in June and July.</p><p>On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the Fed may issue a 50 basis point rate hike at each of its next two meetings, adding that he believes it is reasonable to stop rate hike in September. However, the senior Fed official who released dovish remarks does not have the right to vote at the FOMC meeting of the Fed Monetary Committee this year, and it will be his turn to enjoy the right to vote in 2024.</p><p>St. Louis Fed President Bullard, the voting committee who has FOMC voting rights this year, also said on Friday: \"We should try to get the Federal Funds rate to 3.50% by the end of 2022.\" That means 50 basis points per rate hike at all the Fed meetings for the rest of the year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3660233\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","GS":"高盛","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEX":"标普100","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3660233","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2238130573","content_text":"周一美股三大指数才实现最近四个交易日首次集体收涨，周二就全线下跌，标普500盘中跌超2%、继上周五之后再度跌入熊市区间，较今年1月的纪录高位跌超20%。美股何时能见底？对这个问题，两大华尔街机构高盛和美国银行持同样的观点，都认为，美股可能还得下跌，直到美联储暗示结束收紧货币为止。美东时间24日周二，Benjamin Bowler等美国银行的策略师发布报告称，美联储没有给风险资产提供任何帮助，看来远未开始伸出援手。其指出，从过往美联储干预的情况看，标普500期货的流动性和信用利差这类市场压力的指标目前处于美联储干预前的水平。上述美银策略师在报告中称，我们相信，市场将继续测试“美联储看跌期权”——即如果股市下跌美联储就会出手干预遏制跌势的市场观点。但这些策略师指出，“在美联储开始恐慌前，还要有更多的市场恐慌。”美银发布上述报告前一天，高盛策略师Vickie Chang本周一发布报告称，在美国经济目前没有明显步入衰退的情况下，美联储不太可能转向宽松政策。但与2018年类似，一个潜在的衰退风险信号就足以让美联储放弃持续紧缩。Chang指出，历史上美联储的货币紧缩通常在股市真正触底三个月前就结束，在股市触底两个月后转向宽松。由货币紧缩引发的股市调整往往会在美联储转向宽松时触底，而不管实际经济活动是否触底。Chang认为，投资者目前不太可能从美联储获得政策转变的明确信号，除非有确凿证据显示经济增长放缓，物价降温。市场需要看到通胀减速的迹象，才能看到货币政策的转向。目前高盛预计，美国通胀将在下半年显著放缓。美联储本月初刚刚决定二十二年来首度一次加息50个基点，联储主席鲍威尔就在会后的新闻发布会上说，6月和7月的未来两次会议可能都适合这个幅度加息。上周二鲍威尔重申，6月和7月的两次会议上可能适合延续加息50个基点的步调。本周一，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，美联储可能会接下来的两次会议中分别加息50个基点，还说，他认为9月停止加息是合理的。不过，这位放出鸽派言论的美联储高官今年并没有联储货币委员会FOMC会议的投票权，2024年才轮到他享有投票权力。今年拥有FOMC投票权的票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德上周五还表示：“应当设法让联邦基金利率到2022年年末达到3.50%。” 这意味着在美联储将在今年余下的所有会议上每次加息50个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":1,"GS":1,"QQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SH":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"DOG":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":1,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DJX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}