Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, global equity assets performed weakly, with major stock indices around the world experiencing varying degrees of decline. The global technology sector was hit the hardest, with both the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Nasdaq Index falling by more than 2% over the week. In contrast, China’s Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 saw relatively smaller losses. Year-to-date, stocks in non-U.S. countries continue to significantly outperform U.S. equities. Meanwhile, U.S. macro data has delivered one blow after another. The February PCE data once again exceeded expectations, while personal spending growth came in below forecasts. On top of that, the University of Michigan consumer survey delivered another shock—consumer confidence dropped

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, global equity assets showed lackluster performance overall. Greater China stocks experienced a notable pullback, with the Hang Seng Tech Index—previously the strongest performer—dropping over 4%. The CSI 300, Shanghai Composite Index, and Hang Seng Index also saw significant declines. In contrast, U.S. stocks temporarily stabilized and remained volatile, ultimately closing slightly higher for the week. Year-to-date, Greater China, Europe, and other non-U.S. markets have significantly outperformed U.S. equities. Key Market Themes FOMC Review: Slower Balance Sheet Reduction Can’t Mask Stagflation Risks, Feigned Calm Won’t Alleviate Macro Concerns Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting proceeded as expected, with most a

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, global equity markets showed overall weakness, yet market sentiment was polarized. In Greater China, the tech sector experienced a slight pullback, but the consumer sector took the lead, driving notable gains in the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300. In the U.S., the stock market temporarily stabilized, ending its streak of consecutive declines. Although the Nasdaq surged on Friday, it still closed the week down by more than 2%. Key Events to Watch This Week: Macro Focus → The FOMC meeting will be the primary event. Sector Focus → The NVIDIA GTC Conference for AI industry updates. Stock Focus → A wave of Chinese company earnings, with special attention to Tencent, Xiaomi, and their AI outlooks. Key Market Themes Improving

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Market Themes Trump’s “Debt Reduction Campaign” Shakes the Market—When Will U.S. Stocks Bottom Out? The recent sharp decline in U.S. equities has undoubtedly been the hottest topic among investors. Since mid-to-late February, the Nasdaq has plunged approximately 12% over just a dozen trading sessions. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has been hit even harder, dropping 16%. The once red-hot “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks have suffered severe losses—Tesla has been cut in half, NVIDIA has pulled back 30% from its peak, while Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have each seen declines of nearly 20%. Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers At the heart of this market turbulence is President Donald Trump. His erratic

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Market Themes NVIDIA’s Earnings Perform Brilliantly, Yet Its Stock Faces A Sell-Off—Has The Narrative Of The U.S. Stock Market Come To An End? Last week, NVIDIA released its latest financial report, showing quarterly revenue and profits surging by 78% and 80% year-over-year, respectively—once again significantly exceeding market expectations. Looking solely at the performance numbers, NVIDIA’s results were nearly flawless. The only blemish was a sequential decline in gross margin, widely anticipated due to higher costs associated with its next-generation "Blackwell" chips. Yet, despite these stellar figures, NVIDIA’s stock surprisingly fell after the earnings announcement, plunging nearly 8% in a single

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Market Themes Increased Volatility in Greater China, Trump Announces New Restrictions on China—How to Plan for the Future Market? Recently, Greater China tech stocks continue to lead the global market. Alibaba’s quarterly capital expenditure of 31.7 billion yuan has once again ignited investment enthusiasm for AI in Greater China. However, over the weekend, the White House released a presidential memorandum on "America First" investment policies, which both restricts Chinese capital from investing in critical U.S. assets and limits American capital from flowing into Chinese companies. This has caused significant turbulence in the Greater China market. Regarding this memorandum, while there will cer

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers DeepSeek Disrupts the Global AI Landscape, Computing Power Demand Continues to Rise—Where Will Future Opportunities Lie? Recently, DeepSeek launched China's first large model with inference capabilities on par with OpenAI, achieving this at less than one-tenth of the cost. This move has sparked widespread discussion within the industry, significantly boosting confidence in Chinese tech stocks while also causing major volatility in U.S. AI-related stocks. After two weeks of fermentation, the market has largely digested the DeepSeek event. Discussions surrounding computing power and NVIDIA have also reached a general consensus: demand for computing power will not decline but will continue to rise. At its

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers U.S. Inflation Cools Surprisingly, Market Worries Ease Slightly, but Trading Opportunities Remain. Last week, the December U.S. inflation data was released, showing a slight cooling compared to the previously robust economic data. Specifically, the nominal CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year, higher than the prior reading but within expectations. The main driver of this increase was energy prices, influenced by short-term volatility and lacking long-term persistence. Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Meanwhile, core CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year, exceeding the prior reading but slightly below expectations. Within core CPI, core goods continued to cool, while core services remained relatively resilient, especially the ho

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Market Themes Is the Biden Administration's Plan for Stricter AI Chip Export Restrictions Set to Have a Profound Impact on the Tech Industry? Last week, Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that the Biden administration plans to introduce further AI chip export restrictions before leaving office on January 20. Rumors suggest that the new regulations will categorize countries and regions into three tiers as follows: Tier 1: Includes major U.S. allies such as Germany, Japan, and the Netherlands. These countries will face minimal restrictions and can nearly freely access AI chips exported by the U.S. Tier 2: Covers most countries and regions worldwide, which will be subject to a tot

Today, let's exploring themes for 2025.It should be noted that alpha selection will become increasingly important in 2025, with significant differences expected between sectors and companies.As investors, we should consider which themes or sectors should include and important considerations :There’s no need to hedge against a hard landing, as this risk is already addressed at the allocation level by reducing delta.The chosen sector should have strong fundamentals, includIing healthy revenue growth, profitability, and cash flow, and it should not be a sunset industry. This ensures that even if the market experiences a significant pullback, the sector has recovery potential, avoiding forced losses during downturns.Industries driven primarily by long-term expectations—like quantum computing o

With the end of the year approaching, major institutions begin to provide outlook for US stock market in 2024.According to some reports released so far, most institutions are slightly more optimistic this year compared with the widespread concerns last year.We have selected three outlook reports from David J. Kostin team of Goldman Sachs, Michael J Wilson team of Morgan Stanley and the Mark Haefele team of UBS.Let’s look at their forecasts for the US stock next year, as well as their analyses and judgment on important issues and directions.Forecasts for S&P 500; Chart made by Tiger_Insights1. Up or down? US stocks growth forecast for 2024It is difficult to accurately predict the rising/falling points of US stocks next year. It is common for institutions to be "prove

In history, it's quite a coincidence that two major stock market crashes in the U.S. occurred in October.In October 1929, the Great Depression began to spread, leading to a massive stock market crash.In October 1987, the U.S. experienced Black Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging by over 20% in a single day.With the conflict in the Israeli-Palestinian region, the U.S. dollar is surging. On one hand, there is the significantly better-than-expected non-farm employment data, and on the other hand, the Federal Reserve's unwavering commitment to its inflation target, leaving many investors feeling "chilled to the bone" about this October.1. Is October really the month of stock market crashes in the U.S.?The following chart provides the average returns and daily average volatil

There are still medium- and long-term opportunities in chip design, manufacturing, and production in the semiconductor industryApart from whether the U.S. stock index $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ will fall or continue to rise in the second half of the year, there are some medium- and long-term opportunities that investors should seize. For example, the semiconductor sector, which is benefiting from generative AI, and companies that are benefiting from the shift in manufacturing and chip computing.1. The semiconductor industry benefiting from Generative AI:The semiconductor industry is on the upswing. In Q2, revenue levels across the global se

1. The Fed's rate hike this year is coming to an end, and the rate will be raised no more than once in September.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the July FOMC meeting that the path of future rate hikes will depend on U.S. economic data, meaning as long as core inflation can continue to fall, the likelihood of the Fed raising rates further is not that high.Jerome Powell - WikipediaBelow are three factors that deserve attention and could affect inflation data (CPI) in the future:The impact of the July increase in crude oil prices on CPI: There was a relatively significant increase in crude oil prices in July, which may mean that CPI does not return to 2% as quickly.The influence of U.S. residential rental prices: The statistical subitem US CPI includes owner-equivalent rent, while th

Looking back at the first half of this year, Fed remains firm in raising interest rates, and the US benchmark interest rate has broken through the 5% . At the same time, although global inflation has fallen, it is still far from the 2% target.  “Higher For Longer” for the interest rate has gradually been verified. The birth of ChatGPT has triggered the fantasy of artificial intelligence to greatly improve production efficiency, which is the biggest surprise in the first half of this year. Under these multiple influences, the United States may enter the era of "high interest rates, high inflation, and high growth" in an all-round way. Looking forward to the second half of the year, how will the market perform?I. Asset Performance Review in H11. Major asset returnsLe

At the June FOMC meeting, Fed unsurprisingly paused the rate hikes. However, Fed Chairman Powell stated during the subsequent press conference, “This pause does not imply that the benchmark interest rate has reached its peak.” The dot plot released at the same time indicated that FOMC members anticipate two additional rate hikes totaling 50 bps by the end of this year.Strangely, the market seemed unfazed by such hawkish remarks, and US stocks only experienced a slight decline on that day. Looking at the Fed Fund Futures traded in the market, the expected benchmark interest rate for December not only failed to surpass previous highs but also remained significantly lower than the median of 5.625% indicated in the Fed's dot plot.Source: BloombergSo, is the benchmark interest rate indicated by