The forecast I find most convincing is U.S. equity outperformance, supported by earnings momentum and policy tailwinds. The part I’m less confident about is the assumption that AI spending will keep rising smoothly — any slowdown in data-center financing or capex could hit both credit and equities at the same time.
My own 2026 call: AI capex stays high but becomes more selective, the S&P 500 likely posts mid-single-digit gains, and Japan quietly surprises on the upside thanks to reforms and steady BOJ support.
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