To The Moon

I haven't posted in four weeks. It wasn't for lack of things happening. The opposite. Since I last wrote, MSFT went from the $500s to the mid-$380s. Bitcoin dropped roughly 20% in June — its worst month of the year — and printed a fresh 21-month low in the process. The tech-led sell-off broadened. Chipmakers cracked. The Fed pivoted hawkish enough that Bank of America now models three rate hikes this year, not the cuts most of the market was pricing in. I wanted to wait until the dust settled before writing about any of it honestly. Now it has, at least enough to see the shape of what happened. The last post ended with this line: "Whether it holds in a real drawdown is a different question, and I don't have an honest answer until I'm in one." I'm in one. Here's what the book did. What The

News and my thoughts from the past week (13Jul2026) From X user Katie Miller: OpenAI’s last 24 hours: > Top Exec unexpectedly departs > Shuts down browser tool after 9 months > Sued for trade theft by Apple > Caught selling product to China against sanctions OpenAI is shutting down Atlas, its standalone AI browser, less than a year after launch. The company announced the deprecation alongside ChatGPT Work, a desktop superapp that folds browser capabilities into the main ChatGPT app. Atlas joins Sora and the shelved adult mode as products OpenAI has quietly walked away from in recent months. - X user Hedgie A Brown University economics professor made his take-home midterm harder than usual, figuring unlimited time justified it. 86 students enrolled, up from a typical 8 to 30.

Earnings Calendar (13Jul2026) The earnings season starts with the financial institutions with some of the biggest bank giants: Citi, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan. Other key earnings will include BlackRock, Intuitive Surgical, Netflix, United, TSMC and Wise. The importance of the banking earnings (compiled with help from Grok and Gemini) The big banks (JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs) kick off earnings season as the ultimate macroeconomic health check. Because they sit at the center of capital flow, their financial results serve two critical functions: Main Street Health Check: Metrics like credit card spending, loan delinquencies, and credit loss provisions reveal the true financial stamina and default risks of the American consumer. Wall Street Sentiment: Inv

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Speculative trading in leveraged ETFs has surged. Investors are increasingly all-in on stocks (portfolio allocations). The Fed is becoming more hawkish (echoing global pivot to rate hikes). July-Oct tends to be a more volatile time of the year (historical averages). A long-term trend change is underway in US vs Global relative performance. Overall, a n

The massive intraday swing $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ experienced—dropping 6% on concerns over multi-billion dollar AI capital expenditures before surging more than 9% to finish the week near $669—perfectly captures the "tug-of-war" tech investors are facing. Wall Street loves Meta’s core ad machine, but massive infrastructure spending makes the market flinch. Can Investors Still Hope to Get in Below $600? Yes, getting shares under $600 is still entirely possible, but you will have to wait for the next macro or tech sector pullback. The Reality Checklist: Meta has repeatedly dipped below $600 recently, hitting the low $580s and mid-$560s during tech corrections. The Drivers: The narrative shifts fast. Meta just announced its own custom AI chips

The week ending July 9, 2026, was characterized by significant cross-currents, balancing tech sector volatility with macro pressures. The broader indexes saw a mild consolidation due to escalating Middle East tensions and an accompanying spike in crude oil prices, which stoked fresh fears about sticky inflation and a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve. Despite a mid-week pullback in mega-caps, the tech and semiconductor sectors found solid footing late in the week, fueled by the massive $26.5 billion Nasdaq debut of South Korean memory giant SK Hynix and a landmark $30 billion partnership between Apple and Broadcom. Sector Recovery & Rotation Dynamics A distinct shift in market positioning is taking place as we head into the week of July 13. Rather than a total abandonment of tech, we

Despite being political opposites, both portfolios heavily favour AI, Big Tech, semiconductors, and cloud infrastructure. Recent disclosures show overlapping exposure to many of the market’s strongest-performing sectors. Shared stock holdings: Pelosi vs Trump Comparison of major overlapping holdings appearing in recent portfolio disclosures and analyses for Nancy Pelosi and Donald Trump. Key Similarities Heavy exposure to AI and semiconductor leaders like NVIDIA and Broadcom. Strong focus on cloud and software giants including Microsoft, Alphabet, and Oracle. Both portfolios lean toward companies that benefit from long-term growth in digital infrastructure. Key Differences Pelosi’s disclosed portfolio has historically shown stronger concentration in high-growth technology and options trade

Last Week's Recap 1. Market Digest: Moderate Gains, Earnings Build-Up, Yields Spike, Oil Reverses Moderate gains — S&P 500 +1%+, NASDAQ +2%, second straight positive week; stocks alternating gains/losses since early June on AI spending, Middle East, oil. Earnings build-up — Q2 S&P 500 earnings growth forecast 23.6% (up from 23.3%), second straight quarter of 20%+ growth as banks kick off season. Elevated yields — 10-year Treasury at 4.56% (from 4.37%), 30-year at 5.06% (from 4.87%), highest since mid-May. Dow record — Dow hit 53,055.9 Mon (record), but finished -0.5% for week. S&P 500 -0.5% below June 2 record; NASDAQ -3% below June 2 peak. Oil reverses — Crude jumped to ~$76 Wed on Middle East escalation, pulled back to ~$71 Fri. Volatility eases — VIX fell to 15.0 (lowest in