To The Moon

$Alphabet(GOOG)$   $GOOGL Cloud revenue +103%. Operating income +30%. Stock -10% after hours. Same night, Microsoft spent $45B on capex and rose ~4%. So the market is not punishing AI spending. My hypothesis: it is punishing who pays for it. 29 Oct 2026 · Alphabet Q3 2026 (unaudited release) 1) The number nobody led with Q3 buybacks: zero. A year ago: $11.5B. Year to date: zero, vs $39.8B in 2025. Instead, Alphabet sold $12.4B of new stock in Q3 through an at-the-market program, and $42.9B this year. Add $19.1B of convertible preferred and $85.2B of new debt: about $147B of outside money raised in nine months. Diluted share count is up 1.35% year on year. The share count used to shrink every quarter. 2) Why it needed the money Operating

The short-term Elliott Wave outlook for Gold Miners ETF (GDX) suggests the corrective cycle from the August 26 high has already ended as a seven-swing structure. From that peak, wave (W) declined to $91.19. A corrective rally in wave (X) then reached $98.36. Selling pressure resumed afterward, with wave (Y) extending lower to $78.93. This decline completed wave ((W)) at a higher degree as 45 minutes chart below shows. As a result, GDX should now be in the early stages of a larger corrective recovery. The structure favors at least a three-wave rally against the decline from the August high. The advance from the $78.93 low is unfolding as an impulsive sequence. Wave 1 ended at $81.60. Wave 2 then pulled back and finished at $79.08. From there, the ETF resumed its climb and extended higher in

I've said this about a billion times, but apparently it needs saying a billion and one: CAPEX does NOT automatically translate into profits. Spending billions on AI infrastructure is not the same as earning billions from it. But hey, why bother with revenue, margins, cash flow, or return on investment when you can just announce another $100 billion in spending and watch Wall Street applaud? Apparently, the more you spend, the richer you become. Revolutionary economics! 😂

I’d pick Goldman Sachs here. An earnings beat alone means less when 80%+ of companies are beating. I’d rather look at valuation, earnings quality and how much optimism is already priced in. At around 12x earnings, GS gives me more valuation cushion than chasing a high-growth stock after a major re-rating. SOFI’s growth is attractive, but expectations and valuation make execution increasingly important. I’m also cautious about calling MS a “memory supercycle” play. Morgan Stanley is primarily an investment bank and wealth manager, not a semiconductor memory company. More broadly, this earnings season reinforces one point for me: “beat” is becoming the minimum requirement. The stocks I’d favour are those that can beat, raise guidance and generate stronger cash flow without requiring ever-in

B. Hold rates steady. A hold is already heavily priced in, so I think the bigger market mover will be the guidance for December and the reaction of Treasury yields. If the Fed signals another hike, I wouldn’t automatically buy the first tech dip. I’d watch the 10-year yield and earnings first. If yields rise but profitable tech companies with strong free cash flow continue delivering earnings growth, I’d view a valuation-driven sell-off as a potential buying opportunity. But if higher yields coincide with weakening earnings, shrinking margins or AI capex rising much faster than cash generation, I’d stay patient. For me, the opportunity is not simply “tech fell, buy”. It is whether fundamentals remain strong after the discount rate moves higher.

The Hang Seng has spent two weeks getting punished. HSI briefly fell below 23,000. HSTECH has fallen toward 3,770-3,800, its weakest level since September 2024. Then something interesting happened. The market did not suddenly buy everything. Money concentrated in two almost opposite trades: Biopharma and Mainland dividend banks. At first glance, that makes little sense. One is a high-growth innovation trade. The other is a defensive income trade. But I think the combination tells us exactly what investors are doing. They want upside, but they still do not trust the market. That is why my Hong Kong strategy is not simply: BUY THE DIP. It is: Build the barbell first. Buy the index later. 🔵 THE INDEX IS STABILISING. TECH IS NOT. This distinction matters. HSI has been trying to establish suppo

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ tagged fair value gap (FVG) resistance and broke above the trendline drawn from recent highs, only to sell off sharply after hours. The current bias favors another move lower, with a daily close below 7,702 serving as the key trigger. Meanwhile, the $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ short setup shared on October 16 has delivered a +11.64% gain, with targets reached after earnings. 👇 🔻 $SPX — Key Levels to Watch 📍 Resistance: The daily FVG is expected to cap the next bounce. 📉 Bearish lean: A potential next wave down. 🎯 Trigger: Daily close below 7,702. ⚠️ Context: ES has already swept last week’s high, so SPX may not need to revisit that level. 💰 $GOOGL — Short Trade Update: +11.64% The October 1

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