To The Moon

Bitcoin’s latest cycle has rewritten the old playbook. What looked like a classic post-halving hangover has instead delivered the shallowest major drawdown in the asset’s history, a truncated timeline, and a recovery that is already underway. The next boom is not a future event waiting for a new catalyst. It is unfolding in real time. Performance Snapshot Bitcoin peaked near $126,200 in early October 2025. By June–July 2026 it had bottomed in the $57,800–$60,000 zone, a peak-to-trough decline of roughly 50–55%. That is painful in absolute terms yet strikingly mild compared with prior cycles: the 2021–2022 collapse exceeded 75%, and the 2018 wipeout ran past 80%. The current recovery has carried the price back to the mid-$84,000s, a gain of approximately 40–45% from the lows and a market ca

Mathematical Money | October 3, 2026 A few people have asked me to explain how I actually sell puts, so this is the whole thing from the beginning — what it is, how I choose strikes and dates, how to place the order without giving money away, and a live mistake of mine that illustrates the one rule everybody breaks. If you already sell premium regularly, the first section will be familiar. Skip to the ordering mechanics, because that's where most people quietly lose a chunk of their edge. What you're actually agreeing to Selling a cash-secured put means promising to buy 100 shares of something at a set price, by a set date, in exchange for cash today. You set aside the money to honour that promise — that's the "cash-secured" part — and the cash you receive is yours whatever happens. Two ou

U.S. September Nonfarm Payrolls Rise Only 29,000; Market No Longer Pricing in Fed Rate Hike This Year ‌$S&P 500(.SPX)$  ‌‌$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  ‌‌$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  ‌‌$USD Index(USDindex)$  ‌ The U.S. economy added just 29,000 nonfarm jobs in September, far below the 90,000 expected by markets, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. August figures were also revised down from 162,000 to 133,000. Following the release, market expectations for an October Fed rate hike fell from 22% to 17%, with the cumulative year-end hiking premium shrinking to roughly 21 basis points—t

Wall Street increasingly has two versions of NextEra Energy. The bull sees an AI-power compounder: America needs enormous quantities of electricity, grid connections take years, and NextEra owns one of the deepest development pipelines in the industry. The bear sees something less glamorous: a heavily indebted utility spending almost $30 billion a year on capital projects while issuing debt and shares to keep the machine moving. I think both arguments deserve attention. The investment question is which version ultimately earns the higher valuation. At $76.83, $NextEra(NEE)$ is neither a nuclear momentum trade nor a sleepy income utility. It is increasingly a wager on whether the scarce asset in American power is not generation technology itself, bu

2 October 2026 - Toshiba announced plans to double its hard disk drive production by fiscal 2027, with a $380 million investment to expand manufacturing capacity. This triggered sharp selloffs: Both Seagate fand Western Digital dropped 10%, though intraday lows were worse. Lets assess both sides of the story: Arguments the Drop IS Justified: Supply Risk is Real: Both stocks' big runs this year leave them sensitive to news suggesting the industry's supply and demand balance could loosen. Before the drop, Seagate shares were up 210% YTD, and Western Digital stock was up 150% YTD. (Yahoo Finance) Valuation Concerns: According to GuruFocus, Seagate's current price of $945.57 is 386.4% overvalued compared to its intrinsic value estimate of $194.40. Similar metrics show Western Digital at extrem

Economic Calendar (05Oct2026) caption...Economic calendar for the week (source: Investing.com) After last week’s triple-feature (RBA, PCE, payrolls), this week is deliberately quiet — which makes each item carry more weight, and leaves the tape more exposed to headlines than to data. China is on Golden Week holiday Monday to Wednesday, thinning Asia liquidity. 1. FOMC minutes (Wednesday 7 October, 2:00 pm ET). The one genuine event of the week: the record of the meeting that delivered the first rate rise in three years (to 3.75–4.00%). After Friday’s soft payrolls (+29K — see below), the minutes tell us how much of the decision was inflation-fighting conviction versus insurance. Watch the language on oil pass-through and on how many participants wanted to signal another rise in October. [I

Economic Calendar (05Oct2026) Economic calendar for the week (source: Investing.com) After last week’s triple-feature (RBA, PCE, payrolls), this week is deliberately quiet — which makes each item carry more weight, and leaves the tape more exposed to headlines than to data. China is on Golden Week holiday Monday to Wednesday, thinning Asia liquidity. 1. FOMC minutes (Wednesday 7 October, 2:00 pm ET). The one genuine event of the week: the record of the meeting that delivered the first rate rise in three years (to 3.75–4.00%). After Friday’s soft payrolls (+29K — see below), the minutes tell us how much of the decision was inflation-fighting conviction versus insurance. Watch the language on oil pass-through and on how many participants wanted to signal another rise in October. [Investing.c

News and my thoughts from the past week (05Oct2026) The fuel cluster (📷 1–4): 1. 📷 Diesel will “not return to normal for a year.” Energy executives in the Dallas Fed survey expect high fuel costs to persist — with pump signs already showing diesel above US$8/gallon in places and petrol above US$6. This is no longer a spike; it is being budgeted as a condition. - Financial Times Diesel above US$8/gallon at the pump (FT, via Benson) 2. 📷 China’s refiners suspend October fuel exports; PetroChina cancels cargoes. The world’s swing supplier of refined products is keeping its fuel at home. - Reuters, 1 October China refiners suspend October fuel exports (Reuters, via Benson) 3. 📷 India’s MRPL cancels three export tenders (diesel, jet fuel, reformate) after a refinery fire. - hydrocarbonprocessin

Mathematical Money | October 4, 2026 $MARA$ closed Friday at $11.24. A week earlier it was $12.53, so that's down 10.3% in five sessions and roughly 15% below where it traded in mid-September. I run both sides of a wheel on this name — calls above the position, puts below it. This week the two sides did completely opposite things, which is a useful illustration of what you're actually signing up for when you sell premium in both directions. The calls paid, because the stock fell On 18 September I sold calls at the $14 strike expiring 9 October, taking $0.73 each. By Thursday the stock had dropped far enough that those contracts were worth $0.0565 — effectively nothing. I closed them for a realised gain of $2,633 and immediately wrote new ones at the $13 strike, two weeks further out, for $