This William Blair $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ ARR forecast of $71.7B is just below my absolute base case of $72.8B I laid out in August. My bull case has an ARR ~30% higher than this at $93.6B. This is where the valuation starts to get quite exciting: -> EBITDA margins will end up closer to 60% so we'll have an EBITDA forecast of $56.2B. -> A base case EBITDA multiple of ~16x (on 152% CAGR) gives us a $900B EV (extreme as doesn't model in CapEx). -> Use an EBIT approach with 30% margins which gives us $28.1B in EBIT. -> A base case EBIT multiple in the 20-24x range gives us $617B EV. Either way... I think we end up +$500B EV by 2030. Granted we'll have to deal with some chop along the way.
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some AI ideas with you! 1 $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$ advanced to final stage of DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative worth up to $300M through 2029 with management calling it a “significant vote of confidence” in its path to utility scale quantum. DARPA has already reviewed IonQ twice and is now moving to validate multiple Superion generations giving IonQ one of strongest independent validations in quantum. The interesting part is IonQ owns its U.S. foundry through SkyWater giving it direct control over fabrication and packaging as DARPA tests whether these systems can be manufactured reliably at volume. 2 $Microsoft(MSFT)$ CEO says agents ar
XAUUSD H1 Technical Analysis: Gold Consolidates with a Bearish Bias
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! 1 Technical Analysis: (XAUUSD) H1 Chart—The market has recently been consolidating at high levels, with the center of gravity shifting slightly downward! $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ After falling to around 4100, the price halted its continuous downward trend and shifted to a sideways consolidation at lower levels to form a bottom. The current price, near 4150, is right around the midline of this bottoming consolidation range that has lasted for several weeks. In the short term, it is highly likely that the price will retest the bottom support near 4113–4120. First Resistance Level: 4,152–4,155 (bull-bear dividing line, short-term weak resistance) Second Resistan
$Moderna (MRNA) Surges +4.81% to $196.48: Cancer Vaccine Momentum Nears $212 High, Breakout Watch...
📊 Market Recap As of October 8, 2026, 'Moderna, Inc.' (MRNA) closed at $196.48, up +4.81% with an intraday range of $182.50 - $197.69. The stock is now within roughly 7.4% of its 52-week high of $212.22, extending a powerful rally driven by personalized mRNA cancer vaccine data. After-hours trading pushed the price to $195.79, confirming sustained bullish momentum into the next session. 🚀 Key Drivers Cancer Vaccine Catalyst: Phase 3 INTerpath-001 data for intismeran autogene (with Merck's Keytruda) continues to anchor sentiment, with full melanoma results expected on October 24. ESMO Abstracts Accepted: Three abstracts covering melanoma, pancreatic cancer, and early-stage NSCLC were accepted for the European Society for Medical Oncology congress, broadening the pipeline narrative. Analyst
$AppLovin (APP) Stabilizes Near 52-Week Low: AI Ad Leader Rebounds +0.90%, Awaiting Breakout Signal
📊 Market Recap As of October 8, 2026, AppLovin Corporation ('APP') closed at $281.29, up +0.90% (+$2.51) on the day. The stock traded in a range of $269.41 – $281.34, with after-hours price at $280.99. The stock now sits just 5.4% above its 52-week low of $266.84, while remaining 61.9% below its 52-week high of $738.01, highlighting a prolonged deep correction with early signs of stabilization. 🚀 Key Drivers Lawsuit Overhang: Multiple law firms have filed securities class actions against AppLovin, alleging misleading statements about AI model improvements and generative AI video tools. The claim period covers February 12 to August 5, 2026, keeping legal uncertainty elevated. Analyst Downgrades: Morgan Stanley, Evercore ISI, and Loop Capital have recently lowered target prices, and BofA dow
$Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) Rose +0.82% to $60.01: Memory Chip Momentum Builds, Next Stop $61.22...
📊 Market Recap As of October 8, 2026, 'DRAM' closed at $60.01, up +0.82% for the session. The ETF traded between $57.74 and $60.33, with an amplitude of 4.36%. The closing price sits roughly 26.2% below its 52-week high of $81.34, but remains firmly above its 52-week low of $26.14. After-hours trading pushed the price to $60.05, suggesting sustained buying interest into the evening session. 🚀 Key Drivers Memory Sector Sentiment: As a dedicated memory ETF, 'DRAM' benefits from the broader semiconductor upcycle, with AI-driven demand continuing to support DRAM and NAND pricing expectations. Capital Rotation into Chips: Despite short-term outflows, the five-day capital flow data shows intermittent large-order buying, indicating institutional accumulation attempts near the $55–$58 support zone
$Alibaba(BABA) Slides -2.07% to $107.00: Chinese ADR Retreats as Key Support Holds, Rebound Setup...
📊 Market Recap As of the latest US session, 'BABA' closed at $107.00, down -2.07% from the prior close of $109.26. The stock opened at $106.755 and traded in a narrow range between $106.26 and $107.42, with daily amplitude of just 1.06%. Volume reached 6.99 million shares with a volume ratio of 0.90, indicating mild selling pressure rather than panic distribution. The closing price sits approximately 43% below its 52-week high of $188.66, while remaining about 16% above the 52-week low of $91.99. The stock is currently consolidating below a short-term resistance zone near $115.84 while defending immediate support around $104.87. 🚀 Key Drivers US Treasury Yield Surge: The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.365%, hitting its highest level since 2002, pressuring US-listed Chinese ADRs and gr
$Coherent (COHR) Pulls Back -1.12%: AI Optics Giant Consolidates After Hitting $338, $369 Resista...
📊 Market Recap As of October 8, 2026, 'COHR' closed at $334.56, down -1.12% on the day. The stock tested an intraday high of $338.36 but failed to hold gains, settling roughly 24% below its 52-week high of $440.00. The daily range of $316.85 to $338.36 reflects a 6.36% amplitude, suggesting a sharp intraday battle between bulls and bears. Despite the pullback, 'COHR' remains in a strong medium-term uptrend, with the latest pullback appearing to be a healthy consolidation rather than a structural breakdown. 🚀 Key Drivers AI Optics Demand: 'COHR' continues to benefit from surging demand for high-speed optical transceivers used in AI data centers, keeping medium-term growth expectations elevated. Macro Yield Pressure: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above 5.365%, its highest since 200
$Amazon (AMZN) Climbs +1.42% to $259.92: Cloud and AI Momentum Push Toward $267 Resistance
📊 Market Recap As of the latest close, 'AMZN' traded at $259.92, up +1.42% with an intraday range of $253.17 - $260.14. The stock remains about 9.5% below its 52-week high of $287.20, while holding well above the 52-week low of $196.00. Buyers absorbed the early dip and pushed price back toward the upper boundary of the recent consolidation, signaling renewed accumulation. 🚀 Key Drivers AI and cloud infrastructure demand: Continued enterprise AI adoption and large-scale capital spending on data centers support the AWS growth narrative, keeping sentiment constructive. Treasury yield pressure: The US 10-year yield briefly exceeded 5.36%, pressuring long-duration tech valuations intraday, but AMZN outperformed as investors favored scale and cash-flow visibility. Capital flow improvement: Five
$Broadcom (AVGO) Holds Ground at $376 with +0.19% Gain: AI Semiconductor Giant Consolidates Below...
📊 Market Recap As of the latest US Eastern Time close, 'AVGO' settled at $376.51, up +0.19% on the day, with the session ranging between $369.12 and $376.97. The stock remains approximately 23.9% below its 52-week high of $495.00, while trading well above its 52-week low of $289.96. The current structure reflects a high-level consolidation within an AI-driven semiconductor uptrend, with near-term direction hinging on whether price can reclaim the $404.58 resistance zone. 🚀 Key Drivers AI Infrastructure Demand: Sustained hyperscaler capex on custom AI accelerators continues to support Broadcom's long-term revenue visibility, keeping the stock elevated despite short-term profit-taking. Semiconductor Sector Softness: Broader Philadelphia Semiconductor Index weakness has weighed on chip names,
$SOXS (3x Short Semiconductor ETF) Bounces +3.44% Off 52-Week Low: Inverse Rebound Pressure Build...
📊 Market Recap As of the October 8, 2026 New York session, 'SOXS' traded at $30.65, up +3.44% from the prior close of $29.63, with an intraday range of $30.50 to $31.97. The leveraged inverse semiconductor ETF remains under heavy structural pressure, sitting just 7.7% above its 52-week low of $28.46 and still approximately 97% below its 52-week high of $1,030.00, reflecting persistent decay and distribution in the underlying semiconductor complex.
$NEBIUS (NBIS) Slumps -5.09%: AI Cloud Leader Retreats to $237, Support at $226 in Focus
📊 Market Recap As of the latest close on October 8, 2026 (ET), 'NBIS' settled at $237.15, down -5.09% on the day. The stock traded within a range of $234.03 to $243.62, with turnover reaching 6.52%. Notably, the price now sits roughly 20.9% below its 52-week high of $299.86, reflecting a notable pullback from recent momentum highs amid a broader risk-off tone in AI and semiconductor names. 🚀 Key Drivers AI Cloud Repricing: Nebius recently announced on-demand rate increases for certain GPU, CPU, and memory resources effective October 1, including a roughly 21% jump for NVIDIA B300 to $9.50 per GPU-hour, signaling strong demand but also raising sensitivity to utilization and margin expectations. Sector-wide Profit Taking: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 2% on October 7, with mul
$SK Hynix (SKHY) Drops -2.36% After Lockup Expiry: AI Memory Giant Tests $178, $160 Support in Focus
📊 Market Recap As of October 8, 2026 (US Eastern Time), 'SKHY' closed at $178.25, down -2.36% on the day. The stock traded in a range of $176.70 to $181.14, with volume reaching 20.50 million shares and a volume ratio of 1.31, indicating active selling pressure. The closing price sits approximately 10.8% below its 52-week high of $199.87 and about 42.8% above its 52-week low of $124.80. 🚀 Key Drivers Lockup Expiry: The 90-day lockup period related to SK Hynix's record US IPO expired on October 8, involving 177.9 million ADS, triggering significant supply-side pressure and driving the -2.36% decline. AI Memory Boom: Record Q2 revenue of 79.3 trillion KRW (560 billion USD) and net profit surging 1,243% to 93.9 trillion KRW underscored explosive HBM and AI infrastructure demand, keeping long-
$SpaceX (SPCX) Drops -2.51% After Hitting Resistance: Pullback or Launchpad for Next Leg Toward $...
📊 Market Recap As of October 8, 2026, 'SPCX' closed at $167.60, down -2.51% on the day. The stock pulled back after approaching its recent resistance zone near $190, with the session high hitting $171.31 and the low at $165.65. Despite the pullback, the stock remains roughly 26% below its 52-week high of $225.64, suggesting the medium-term uptrend is still intact. 🚀 Key Drivers Analyst Endorsement: Morgan Stanley issued a bullish note calling 'SPCX' shares "cheap and getting cheaper," reinforcing institutional confidence in the valuation reset. Musk Wealth Effect: A prior 7.6% single-day surge briefly pushed Elon Musk's net worth back above $1 trillion, amplifying retail and momentum-driven interest in the stock. Infrastructure Expansion: SpaceX is reportedly seeking to build a natural gas
10/7 Strategy Outlook | AI Hits Headwinds, But Money Hasn't Left
① What's Happening Today Key Summary: Rates and oil prices both rising, tech stocks under pre-market pressure, but capital hasn't fully exited AI. Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year rising to 5.35% and the 30-year to 5.70%. Combined with rising oil prices and escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions, the semiconductor sector led the decline. But the AI main line hasn't gone out: MRVL raised its long-term revenue target at its Investor Day, AVGO was boosted by news of Anthropic TPU orders, B200 rental prices continued climbing, and power demand-related names VST, GEV, and BE strengthened in tandem. Today's core tension: Rates are compressing valuations, but AI compute demand is still providing fundamental support. ② What Money Is Betting On / Defending Against 🟠 Buy Side: Index and
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ didn’t need a signed Terafab contract to get Wall Street’s attention. After Elon Musk confirmed that TSMC is in discussions around the massive chip project, TSMC jumped 2.75% to a record $485.80. At the same time, Intel fell 2.63% to $116.19. That divergence is what makes this story interesting. Intel had previously been the only publicly named foundry partner for Musk’s Terafab plans, with Musk saying the project would use Intel’s 14A process. Now TSMC is part of the conversation. But here’s the important distinction: TSMC is not replacing Intel — at least not based on what has been confirmed. Musk has described the TSMC discussions as preliminary, and there is no disclosed contract, order size,
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ After five months of sideways consolidation, $NVDA has finally broken through its previous all-time high. While breakout traders are celebrating, long-term investors need to look at the reality of capital efficiency. Given its massive market cap, NVIDIA simply cannot move exponentially with the same velocity we saw from $AMD just a few months back. This means entering $NVDA right here introduces a significant opportunity cost. Your capital will be backed by a cash-flow monster, but it might move a lot slower than smaller, hyper-growth alternatives. Are you buying the breakout, holding your current bags, or allocating capital elsewhere?
Beyond the Silicon: Why companies like $Murata Manufacturing Inc.(MRAAY)$ Murata ($MRAAY) Is the Essential Pick-and-Shovel Play of the AI Surge When retail investors talk about the Artificial Intelligence revolution, the conversation inevitably circles around the glamorous chipmakers: $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ or $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ Yet, an advanced AI server rack is useless without an intricate array of passive components surrounding those GPUs. Beyond processing chips, hardware systems rely
$NOW 20261030 130.0 PUT$ Naked put - hope it expires worthless Be water, my friend—stay calm, adapt, and let the market do its thing. Watch me pocket $15K in premiums in Oct. Jun/Jul/Aug/Sep: $1,721/$26,431/$34,103/$26,671 Oct 2026: $4,282