To The Moon

What exactly does CFTC data tell us? Why are non-commercial positions the most critical? The core value of the CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report is not to tell us whether prices will rise or fall, but to reveal who is driving prices. Market price movements are essentially the result of capital flows and competition among different types of participants, and the CFTC data allows us to observe these groups separately. Among the three categories of positions, commercial traders typically engage in hedging, meaning their behavior is driven more by risk management than directional views. Non-reportable positions are relatively small and have limited influence on overall trends. The real driving force behind sustained price movements comes from non-commercial positions—speculative ca

Gold has encountered a "sovereign-level short seller". On May 13, the Indian government significantly raised the import tariffs on gold and silver from 6% to 15%. Just one day later, on May 14, India tightened the rules for duty-free gold imports, stipulating that when jewelry exporters import gold through the "Advance Authorization Scheme", the duty-free quota per license shall not exceed 100 kilograms at most. Within 48 hours, first raise taxes, then impose quantity limits. On one hand, raise the import cost of ordinary gold, and on the other hand, block the duty-free import channel. This is no longer an ordinary adjustment of trade policy, but a concentrated suppression of gold imports launched by India after the obvious increase in foreign exchange pressure. India first raised taxes, o