To The Moon

# TMC The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) — Full Technical & Fundamental Analysis Thesis **Date:** 18 March 2026 | **Analyst:** Nik | **Catalyst:** Q4 2025 Earnings — 19 March 2026 AH ----- ## Executive Summary TMC the metals company (NASDAQ: TMC) is a pre-revenue, development-stage deep-sea minerals explorer with a market capitalisation of approximately $2.5B, trading at $6.07 against a 52-week range of $1.57 to $11.35, implying a peak-to-trough drawdown of roughly 46% from highs. The stock is a pure-play regulatory and permitting binary — not a traditional earnings play — meaning that fundamental valuation models anchored to discounted cash flow or EV/EBITDA multiples are largely ineffective at this stage of the business lifecycle. Price action is instead driven by newsflow, options gam

I see the market at a clear style crossroads, and I’m leaning toward Financials leading near term. With rates staying higher, names like $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ & Bank of America benefit from strong margins, while $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ supports trading desks like Goldman Sachs. This feels like a classic shift toward cash flow and stability. That said, AI isn’t over—it’s just being tested. After NVIDIA GTC, the market wants real results. I’m watching $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ for pullbacks as potential entries, while $Broadcom(AVGO)$ shows the AI trade is broadening beyond GPUs. My #11 pick is

All eyes are on the Fed, and Singapore markets are bracing for volatility. Defensive and high-yield sectors like Offshore/Marine names $YZJ Shipbldg SGD(BS6.SI)$ stand out with strong earnings and long-term order visibility, making them attractive if money rotates toward stability. Markets may react sharply to any hawkish or dovish signals, so positioning wisely is crucia $SGX(S68.SI)$ benefits from high trading volumes on FOMC days, while S-REITs like $Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr(N2IU.SI)$ are sensitive to rate moves and reflect market sentiment quickly. Wilmar offers defensive stability with growth exposure to commodities, providing a hedge amid uncerta

This earnings season, I’m watching both Tencent & Alibaba, but I lean toward $TENCENT(00700)$ . Gaming & advertising remain strong, and its international segment adds resilience, even with short-term AI spending pressuring margins. I also like that Tencent’s core business is more predictable, which matters in a volatile market. Alibaba $Alibaba(09988)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ is in transition. Cloud & AI are the key growth drivers, but heavy investment in instant retail and market share defense is weighing on profits, making near-term performance less predictable. If its AI monetization starts to show traction, Alibaba could surprise on the upside, but

Nvidia's GTC Brings Big Promises, But Smart Money Is Selling Volatility At GTC 2026, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   CEO Jensen Huang raised the company's data center revenue target to a cumulative $1 trillion for 2025–2027, a sharp increase from the $500 billion outlook set last year. As the conference kicked off and market attention intensified, unusual activity in Nvidia's options market picked up significantly, with two large opening trades appearing early in the session. In event-driven, high-profile setups like this, the options market often follows a familiar pattern. Institutional investors are typically less focused on betting directionally on sharp upside or downside moves, and more inclined to sell options to c

Tariffs, discounting, and fading brand heat: Lululemon faces three major headwinds in 2026 After the close on March 17 (ET), $Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$   released its fiscal Q4 and full‑year results for the period ended February 1. Q4 wasn't bad and the international business remained strong, but the weakness in the Americas showed no real improvement—and the company's 2026 outlook came in below expectations across the board. Key numbers at a glance – Q4 revenue: $3.64B, +1% YoY; excluding the impact of FY2024's 53rd week, Q4 revenue would have been +6% YoY. – Full‑year revenue: $11.10B, +5% YoY; excluding the 53rd week, growth would have been +7%. – Q4 diluted EPS: $5.01, below market expectations. Full‑y

From my perspective, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ has clearly evolved beyond chips into a full-stack AI infrastructure player. The “AI Factory” vision is real, but GTC is more about narrative than immediate earnings. That’s why the stock feels stuck—most of the hype is already priced in. The bigger question for me is capital allocation. If the 50% FCF buyback rumor materializes, it could act as a strong downside buffer and sentiment catalyst. But at this stage, the market is shifting focus from growth to sustainability, especially with $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ pushing custom chips to reduce reliance on NVIDIA. My strategy is to stay selective. I’m not c

Nice Sharing 😁 Good selection 💯 @Barcode @Aqa @DiAngel @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000 @JC888 //@Shyon:Right now, I’m leaning toward Financials, mainly because of how well SGX $SGX(S68.SI)$ benefits from volatility. Whether the Straits Times Index rises or falls, derivatives volume spikes and SGX collects fees, making it a clean defensive play as global capital rotat

Last week was pure TACO + HALO. When Donald Trump hinted the Iran situation was wrapping up, oil pulled back and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ bounced sharply. I’m still leaning into that setup—fade oil spikes like W&T Offshore and rotate into beneficiaries like Carnival as energy pressure eases, while watching for broader risk-on continuation. What changed quickly is sentiment on HALO. Even Goldman Sachs is stepping back from crowded names like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ . When weaker, low-quality names start outperforming, I take that as a sign the trade is overheated and positioning is stretched. So I’m staying selective. I’m still bullish

For me, today is all about Jerome Powell. The FOMC decision sets the tone, but his wording moves markets—especially hawkish vs dovish signals. I’m watching the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ into the final hour, where direction usually gets decided. A cautious tone could spark a relief rally; otherwise, expect volatility. On equities, I’m tracking Jensen Huang and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ closely. Post-GTC, holding key levels is crucial for AI sentiment. At the same time, Warren Buffett holding record cash reminds me patience matters. I’m not chasing—waiting for cleaner setups. If I had to trade like a master, I’d blend Buffett with Cathie Wood. Stay patient, but be ready to act if the Fed turns dovish.

Tonight, all eyes are on $Micron Technology(MU)$ as it reports earnings. The memory sector has been surging, and with NVIDIA’s GTC and CES underwhelming, the spotlight is on memory bandwidth—the “Physical Limit of AI.” Key metrics for me are Gross Margins, HBM demand, and guidance, not just Revenue and EPS. The memory “High-Prosperity” cycle means rising prices are boosting profits fast, but expectations are high. While comparing the F4 draft—CSOP Samsung Electronics Daily (2x) Leveraged Product, CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product, Western Digital, and SanDisk Corp.—I’m focusing on SK Hynix for my position. SK Hynix, to me, combines momentum with resilience in this AI-driven boom. I’ll watch Micron for sector signals, but my bet is on SK H

$Energy Fuels(UUUU)$ 40 Target Price, as published in Zack article.  https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2886129/energy-fuels-rare-earth-strategy-a-potential-growth-driver   Zacks article publish UUUU, the Energy Fuels company's strategic plans to improve its uranium production margins for the year 2026.   Energy Fuels (UUUU) is in the today's Zacks article, for its operational and cost strategy aimed at boosting profitability through higher mill utilization and cost efficiency, positioning it to capitalize on favo

$ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ （ProShares UltraPro QQQ）與其底層指數ETF——QQQ（Invesco QQQ Trust）比較時的關鍵盲點，並探討此一現象對散戶投資者的啟示。 一、 核心謬誤：名義價格比較的嚴重失真 坊間普遍存在一個現象：投資者直接將TQQQ與QQQ的即時價格或歷史價格圖表進行疊加比較，試圖解讀兩者的倍數關係或估值高低。然而，這種比較方法存在根本性的缺陷。 QQQ的價格軌跡： QQQ自2000年進行唯一一次2：1分割後，二十餘年來再無任何分割記錄。其名義價格的增長，直接且真實地反映了其底層資產價值的長期累積。 TQQQ的價格幻覺： 相反的，TQQQ自2010年成立以來，為維持交易流動性，已進行至少8次股票分割。每一次2：1或3：1的分割，都將其名義價格人為地「砍半」或「砍至三分之一」。 結論一：若直接比較兩者名義價格，如同使用刻度完全不同的兩把尺進行丈量。TQQQ的名義價格因頻繁分割而被系統性地「壓低」，創造出一種「價格低廉」或「波動溫和」的幻覺，這完全掩蓋了其真實的資產增長軌跡與驚人的波動本質。任何基於此種比較得出的「TQQQ較便宜」或「兩者波動區間相近」的結論，都是具有誤導性的。 二、 真相還原：必須依靠「還原股價」 要進行有意義的比較，唯一的科學方法是採用經過回溯調整的 「還原股價 (Adjusted Close Price)」。此數據已將所有歷史上的股票分割、配息等因素納入計算，使所有價格點立於同一基礎之上。 真實的長期報酬：使用還原股價後，TQQQ過去十多年的累積報酬將呈現出近乎垂直的增長曲線，其驚人的倍數效果遠非名義價格圖表所能比擬。 真實的波動風險：** 還原股價也將揭露TQQQ真實的波動區間，其

$Trade Desk Inc.(TTD)$ $PubMatic, Inc.(PUBM)$  $Magnite, Inc.(MGNI)$  📉🩸📉 TTD Enters Credibility Repricing Regime as -5.8% Selloff Accelerates Structural Breakdown and Ecosystem Trust Shock 🩸📉🩸 $TTD is transitioning out of a premium narrative phase and into a credibility-driven repricing cycle, where price action, analyst sentiment, and ecosystem trust are reinforcing downside momentum rather than stabilising it. 📉 Price Action, Momentum, and Structural Breakdown The market is no longer defending rallies, it is actively using them as exit liquidity. $TTD is currently down -5.8% in the session, extending a sequence that now reflects eight losses

$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  📈📊📈 SNDK’s AI-Driven NAND Supercycle: Structural Repricing, Institutional Flow & Post-FOMC Market Divergence 📈📊📈 🚀 $SNDK has surged to fresh all-time highs, supported by more than $6.9M in aggressive single-leg call flow. This is not passive exposure. It reflects clear directional conviction from institutional participants positioning for continuation. 📈 Now the #1 performer in the S&P 500, +170 % YTD, sharply diverging from broader market behaviour as the $SPX retraces ~40 points following the latest FOMC release. At the same time, over $6M in put premium flo

$Macy's(M)$ $Kohl's(KSS)$  $Dillard's(DDS)$  📈🧠📈 Macy’s Setup: Squeeze Fuel Meets Structural Reality 📈🧠📈 $M is starting to attract attention again, not because the story is fully repaired, but because positioning and price action are beginning to diverge from the fundamentals. A decisive reclaim of the 200-day SMA with a close around $17.81 puts price cleanly back above the ~$17.56 resistance zone. That level had capped prior attempts, and the breakout now shifts short-term control back to the buyers. Options flow reinforces the move. Call volume surged ~142% above average into earnings, while short interest remains elevated at ~24M shares, roughly

Today I’m focusing on the $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ into the FOMC decision. It’s a tactical trade for me — not a long-term hold. With AI momentum still driven by players like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , a dovish Fed could spark a sharp upside move in semis, which SOXL would amplify. But I’m keeping tight risk control since a hawkish surprise could flip this quickly. For hedging, I use ETFs as a macro tool rather than stock-specific protection. When I’m heavy in names like Palantir Technologies or Tesla, I may offset risk using instruments like the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ or sector ETFs instead of exiting positions entirely. Overall, I st

My stock in focus today is $Micron Technology(MU)$ after its latest earnings, and the strength is clear. Revenue and margins surged, with higher guidance driven by AI demand—especially HBM. Its deeper role alongside $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ reinforces my view that memory is now a key AI bottleneck. Concerns around capital expenditure are valid, as the scale raises questions on free cash flow and overcapacity. But I see this as forward-looking—supply is still tight, and Micron is investing early to meet multi-year AI demand. The bigger shift is structural: AI is turning memory into a strategic asset. With demand rising across HBM and data centers, Micron looks well positioned despite near-term volatility. I’m wat

The thing is, dividends have a powerful psychological effect on investors. When a company pays steady dividends, it creates a sticky shareholder base. This is what I call a “Shareholders’ Effect”. This means shareholders who own dividend stocks are less likely to sell their shares and hurt stock prices. The big problem comes when dividends get cut, it loses this shareholders’ effect quickly.  Here’s the other thing. The telco business is a capital intensive business. Companies must constantly invest in network infrastructure and bid for spectrum licenses like 5G. You see, spectrum auctions used to be very expensive in the 1990s. That has since dropped over the years. This has forced Starhub to be a price taker. Think about it: what’s stopping you from switching to another cheaper telc