1.74K
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09-08
Why Rising Private-Credit Non-Accruals Matter More Than Stable Headline Valuations
Private-credit portfolios appeared to stabilize in the second quarter, but loans that stopped producing interest continued to rise. That divergence matters for business-development companies because a modest valuation markdown can look manageable while the underlying cash income deteriorates more sharply. Reuters reported on September 2 that the aggregate fair-value-to-cost ratio across reviewed US private-credit portfolios fell 168 basis points over six months to 97.57%. Non-accrual investments increased to approximately 3.4% of portfolio cost from 2.5%, with much of the markdown concentrated among a relatively small group of borrowers, including software companies. Reuters' private-credit analysis distinguishes broad portfolio marks from loans no longer paying interest. The bullish case
TOPRaymondReed: That 2.5% to 3.4% non-accrual jump bothers me more than the marks. If software names are clustering here, this may be spreading past a few bad credits
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09-08
TSLA, cont'd to fall this Week or Rally?
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ stock finished the week ending 04 Sep 2026, on a downward slope, retreating from its Thursday peak. (see below) The broader market landscape presents an immediate headwind, with (a) rising Treasury yields and (b) tighter macroeconomic conditions applying sector-wide pressure on technology growth equities. However, TSLA’s specific price decline stems from company-specific hurdles that threaten to linger into the coming week. Wall Street’s lukewarm reaction to the long-anticipated Austin Cybercab event on Thu, 03 Sep 2026, reflected growing investor fatigue over high-concept showcases that lack immediate commercial execution. The event itself, unusually muted and missing CEO Elon Musk’s signature grandstanding, failed to deliver
TOPRegulatory overhang feels loud, but autonomy progress is still the part that matters. If road data keeps improving, this dip can fade fast
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09-07
Semiconductor strength amid broader index softness is a classic intra-tech / AI infrastructure rotation, driven primarily by fresh AI demand signals rather than a full risk-on shift. On Friday (Sept 4), major US indices closed lower (S&P 500 ≈ -0.4%, Dow ≈ -0.5%, Nasdaq ≈ -0.3%) after a stronger-than-expected jobs report raised odds of further Fed tightening. In contrast, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose roughly 3.4%. Asia followed through strongly on Monday (Sept 7, while US markets were closed for Labor Day): KOSPI surged ≈4.6% to a multi-week high, led by Samsung Electronics (+≈5.7%) and SK Hynix (+≈8%). Taiwanese semiconductors and related names also advanced sharply. Positive global cues lifted European chip stocks as well. Primary drivers of the rotation 1. OpenAI model ca
TOPValuation still is not stretched if AI capex keeps compounding. I care more about tool makers here — every 10% capex bump can mean roughly 15-20% more equipment revenue.
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09-07
🚨 THE AI TRADE DIDN’T DIE. IT MOVED TO MEMORY.
Friday gave us one of those market sessions that looks strange until you ask a different question. The major US indexes fell. Treasury yields rose after August payrolls came in far stronger than expected. Rate-hike expectations increased. Growth stocks should have hated that setup. Yet one corner of the market went in completely the opposite direction. Memory and storage exploded higher. SanDisk jumped around 12%. Micron gained 6.1%. Western Digital rose nearly 6%. Seagate also rallied. The semiconductor index climbed more than 3% despite weakness across the broader market. Then Asia opened and the move continued. SK Hynix surged roughly 8%. Samsung Electronics climbed nearly 6%. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 4.6%. At first glance, this looks like another AI rally. I think something more inte
TOPB for me. Memory valuation rerating is just getting started, and rising HBM penetration should keep pushing ASPs higher.
2.86K
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09-08
🚨 AI IS EATING THE WORLD’S MEMORY. YOUR NEXT PHONE MAY PAY THE BILL.
Memory stocks are surging while the broader market struggles. The obvious explanation is simple: AI demand is strong. HBM is scarce. Memory prices are rising. Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung benefit. I think that explanation stops one level too early. Because something much larger is happening underneath the memory rally. AI data centres are not simply creating another source of semiconductor demand. They are competing with the rest of the technology industry for a limited manufacturing resource. And increasingly, the rest of technology is losing. The result could change much more than memory-company earnings. It could change how much laptops cost. How much RAM goes into smartphones. Which consumer brands survive. How quickly people replace devices. Whether affordable phones can run AI locall
TOPHBM shortage likely runs into mid next year, not just this cycle. What gets missed is auto AI could start crowding consumer memory too.
1.48K
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09-07
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ When drop again to scoop
1.40K
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09-07
$Jardine C&C(C07.SI)$ continue today hike
781
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09-07
$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ still long to gooo
1.98K
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09-08
$Intel(INTC)$ Going toward breaking the USD100 point. Hope it will reach the 52 week high soon. Another milestone after hugh correction weeks ago.
2.20K
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09-08
$VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$
TOPBeen DCAing SMH since last year and the setup still looks tight. TSMC and Nvidia capacity feels undersupplied for the next few years 💪
1.82K
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09-07
August 2026 delivered resilient gains amid geopolitical noise, sticky inflation, and a hawkish Fed pivot under Chair Kevin Warsh. September calls for balanced positioning: stay invested in the AI/energy infrastructure complex while rotating toward financials, industrials, and selective value for better risk-adjusted returns.** August Reflection: Strength Despite Headwinds Major US indices finished positive. The S&P 500 rose ~2.7%, Nasdaq ~4%, and Dow ~1.5%—the best August for the S&P and Nasdaq since 2021. Energy led large-cap sectors (~+7%), extending its strong 2026 run (YTD gains approaching 40-45% in some measures). Technology/software and AI-linked names also contributed, while utilities and some rate-sensitive areas lagged. Key drivers: - Strong Q2 earnings (blended S&P g
TOPWarsh staying hawkish long enough to tame inflation is the shaky part. Energy-led inflation usually breaks something first, and broad equity multiples still look too comfortable lol
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09-08
US Stock Market Rally Delayed the Correction, But the Risks Behind It Have Not Gone Away
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ The U.S. stock market closed August with a stronger-than-expected performance. Expectations of a potential breakthrough between the United States and Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with strong earnings from major technology companies, helped the market maintain a relatively solid
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09-07
$Docusign(DOCU)$ Docusign rise after reporting upbeat financial results and raised its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook.
2.47K
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09-08
SOXL Rallied 5.34% on Nvidia's Earnings, Its Own Risk Score Just Got Worse
📊 This Week's Recap & Outlook $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ From last week's opening report to this week's daily coverage, here's how the SPR cycle for SOXL actually played out — and what it means going forward. All reports are published at pretiming.report. A note before the recap: this batch included the opening Weekly report, two Daily reports (Aug 31 and Sep 01), and the closing Weekly report — Daily write-ups for Sep 02–04 weren't part of this set. Where those three sessions matter to the story, this recap draws only on the closing Weekly's own account of them and on simple arithmetic between the two closing prices we do have, not on invented daily figures. SOXL's week produced a genuinely strong number on the surfa
2.04K
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09-08
$BlackBerry(BB)$ keep getting lesser ...
1.60K
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09-08
$SNDL 20270115 2.0 CALL$ very hard to close ...
2.25K
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09-08
$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ I had bought and sold $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ in a few occasions. I’m bullish on Meta Platforms (META) over the next 12–24 months, but I would expect significant volatility. At around $617, META looks considerably more attractive than it did near its ~$796 high. Why I like META 1. The core advertising business is still very strong. Q2 2026 revenue reached $60.8B, up 28% YoY. Ad impressions increased 14% and average ad price increased 12%—a very healthy combination. 2. AI is already improving the advertising engine. This is important: Meta isn’t simply spending billions hoping AI eventually pays off. Its AI recommendation and advertising systems are improv
TOP23x earnings with 28% revenue growth puts PEG under 1, that is the cleaner bull case here. Meta still screens cheaper than Amazon on that basis
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09-08
$Micron Technology(MU)$ Yes — MU is moving again, and this rally looks more fundamental than just momentum. 🔥 What’s driving Micron now? The biggest development is the memory supply squeeze. DRAM and NAND prices are rising sharply as AI data-centre demand competes for capacity. Recent industry estimates suggest DRAM prices could rise around 50% this quarter, with NAND potentially up about 60%. More importantly, Micron is planning to nearly double HBM production capacity to ~100,000 wafers/month by the end of 2026. HBM is the high-margin memory required by AI accelerators. And this isn’t a small recovery: Micron’s FY2026 Q3 revenue reached $41.46B, with net income of $28.24B. 📈 The really interesting part Micron has already risen enormously, so norma
TOPI’m with the AI demand angle, but the real swing factor is how cleanly that 100k wafers per month HBM ramp lands. Yield hiccups can blunt the earnings torque fast
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09-08
$NBIS Called the Bottom, Then the Top. Now Watch $IREN and $BE
One thing I care about more than being bullish or bearish is being objective. $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ is a good example. 📅 July 29 I identified a potential bottom. 21 days later, $NBIS had rallied roughly 90%. 📅 August 13 The chart reached a potential top, and I flipped short from a bearish Smart Money Zone. The stock later dropped about 25%. That doesn't mean I'm permanently bearish on $NBIS. If the structure turns bullish again and meets my criteria, I'll go long again. The chart decides the position. Not the narrative. And that's especially important with AI infrastructure names, where both the growth story and the valuation can move extremely fast. $NBIS remains one of the market's highest-growth neocloud names, which is exactly why I want to trade the
1.55K
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09-08
$SPY Is Coiling, $MU Holds Support, $AMD Needs 471.5 👀
Three charts I’m watching closely this week: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ — the squeeze is getting tighter 🔥 Bollinger Bands are narrowing, which tells us volatility is being compressed. That usually doesn’t last forever. If the sequence of lower highs continues and $SPY finally comes down to the 766 gap, things could move quickly through the volume shelves. 🎯 Next support: ~754 So I’m not chasing the current range. I’m waiting for the compression to resolve and watching 766 as the first major test. $Micron Technology(MU)$ — the reset looks healthy 🧠 $MU has held its 20-week moving average after working off an overbought condition. That’s exactly the kind of reset you want to see in a strong trend. The